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Subject : Fading the Public :

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  • Subject : Fading the Public :

    The first thing I would like to say about this line of logic as a whole is , it holds no value " What-so-ever " . Since its well known that they go 50-50 I would ask , Wheres the value of saddling up with a middle of the road system .

    Now there are places that hold a little value when considering a fade and they are sites that have the tons of wanna-bes and scared gamblers like a few mentioned already . Usually very young and very inexperienced for that matter , with little if any understanding of odds and what they do & dont offer in the long-run.

    Most of these people will not be in this very long for the plain and simple reason that they will get soaked and leave town with thier tail between thier legs . It all boils down to :

    #1: Being open minded and a willingness to understanding the ins & outs of the game you choose.

    #2: Accepting the "fact" that your going to go thru your apprenticeship and pay as you go , thus limiting your action till you get your sea-legs under you .

    #3: And this is the most important one of all , Being able to retain a computer full of data in your mind that ****** everything from the most extra inning games in a year (this ones a duzzy already) to whos messing around with the coaches wife .

    My outlook here on this subject is fading will lead into a juicey nightmare at best , oh you will hit a few that way because of the percentage balance that it entails . But in the long-run ( another one that most gamblers are never going to see " a long-run " ) you will fail ultimately !

    This is not for the lazy of mind nor the faint of heart folks , the Man will take you out if you dont get just as smart as he is !

    Brought to you from one who has seen the light ( boy is it dark in here ) and if your not going to commit , then just commit suicide and get it over-with .

    G.L.

    ***MMM***

    :cool: :cool: :cool:

    ps - Anybody see the new NFL schedule yet :eek: :eek: :eek:
    " The Wind Does Not Wait For The Tree To Bend "

  • #2
    Re: Subject : Fading the Public :

    Originally posted by MemphisMafia
    The first thing I would like to say about this line of logic as a whole is , it holds no value " What-so-ever " . Since its well known that they go 50-50 I would ask , Wheres the value of saddling up with a middle of the road system .
    MMM, as I posted in the other thread on this issue I agree 100%. Over the long hual the public wins 50%. When the public is on one side overwhelmingly I'm certain they still hit 50%. To think they hit 40-45% is a strong misconception.

    Comment


    • #3
      Memphis/frankb03

      Nice write up lady/well presented....frankb03--I agree also..

      Have never looked at publics opinion(po) for any of the sports I participate in...You hear po is 50/50 %, some say 93/7% wrong, etc...

      First of all how accurate is that report...who compiled it...some body trying to make a living and developed a system...

      2ndly---parlance bettors are different from general po, and these compilations fail to break em apart...

      Established/accurate record keeping of services, good FORUMS like this one, are helpful aids...

      Best way, leave your heart/sentiments out of it, do good research, break down statistics, and mostly play your own....

      I do not use a good inputer/picker as Memphis, to change my plays, go against, usually lay off when we disagree, her top ones only, and double up when we both like the same ones (tops)..

      Public opinion never has, never will alter my opinion on ANYTHING, much less my SPORTS PICKING...:D ..OLDman...kmann


      Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

      Comment


      • #4
        Take the blinders off people! Don't agree with you at all. Why do you think Vegas and offshores are poping up all over the place. Cause people are winning. Sure the public wins some but they lose a hell of alot more than win! The people who post on these boards have Knowledge of the game, well some of them. The majority of the people have no clue. I know alot of people who gamble just to gamble and all they do is bet the favs and the overs. Your not going to make any money in this sport betting the favs every night than when they jump off the favs and onto the dogs they jump at the wrong time. Look at the start of round two in the NHL you could of went 2-1 last night at still lost. Everyone was on Detroit. Now your stuck 2.5 units and have to win 3 games to get back to even.

        It all boils down to money management and if it looks to good to be true it usually is.

        The public loses and the numbers show it!!!!!!

        Comment


        • #5
          Memphis

          A true fade will win 60%+ of the time. The trouble is, most fade players aren't fading at all, they just think they are. If you look up the definition of a fade, you will see it is a person that takes the action (book) and In my many years involved in this business, I *****'t seen many books(none) that went broke.

          Comment


          • #6
            The reason books win and faders dont (part of the reason) is books get that extra 10% or so on a loss. Or in bases/hockey the vig is even higher.

            A fader cant take the action of the other side, they have to play opposite and face the same issues that the player has, the juice.

            If you go to ********* and look at cappers records, it isnt the win/loss that gets them, it is the juice. Someone can go 52% but with the juice and assorted other line issues with some sports, THAT is what does a gambler in, and a fader cannot gain that advantage.

            In additon, the chase is what gets many gamblers in..they start losing and they chase, that is the money managment issue as mentioned.

            How about we all pool our money and be a book? Sounds kinda fun doesnt it?

            Comment


            • #7
              Billy

              Originally posted by BillyBarooooooo
              Take the blinders off people! Don't agree with you at all. Why do you think Vegas and offshores are poping up all over the place.
              Billy you are DEAD-WRONG!!! Vegas has one objective and ONLY one. BALANCED ACTION!. Read any article. Watch any interview with the linesmakers in Vegas. They want balanced action! They don't give a shit who wins.

              Since the start of the 1999 NBA season the favorite is:

              ATS: 2899-2857 (50.365)
              OU: 2877-2891

              In the NFL since 1998:

              ATS: 690-733
              OU: 708-738

              In 5756 NBA games the favorites are a measly 42 games over .500. That tells me Vegas has accomplished their goal. BALANCE ACTION!

              Comment


              • #8
                wallstreet

                I Have one felony book making charge, I don't need another
                But when the probation is over (July) I'll be back

                Comment


                • #9
                  frankb03

                  It makes NO difference if it's favorites or dogs......
                  John Q Public plays as many dogs as favorites.....
                  A fade is a fade, dog or favorite.....

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    and if you think for one second they want a balanced book, you are dead wrong.
                    Vegas bates the public with the line, I'm not saying all games, but a good part of them. Vegas knows people are like sheeep, steer one and the rest follow.....

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: frankb03

                      Originally posted by ************
                      It makes NO difference if it's favorites or dogs......
                      John Q Public plays as many dogs as favorites.....
                      A fade is a fade, dog or favorite.....
                      I agree it makes no difference if its favorites or dogs. The point I was trying to make was in over 5000 games its almost split right down the middle.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Personally

                        I think number one rule of gambling is....

                        Check your ego at the door

                        number two....

                        Keep it positive. Good ju-ju is important. Rising water raises all ships. Don't be looking to hope someone loses so you win.

                        number three...

                        Act like you been there before. This applies to wins and LOSES.

                        number four...

                        It's a marathon, not a race. Memphis is dead on about this.
                        Don't argue with an idiot; people watching may not be able to tell the difference.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Gentlemen :

                          Read between the lines in my post , I guess we figure Joe Public to be two different people . Wanna-Bes & Joe Public are two entirely different folks in my camp , wannas are the unexperienced group I mentioned up-stairs and they float Vegas a great deal of money , Joe Public to me is the select group that has paid thier dues and dont make the mistake the rookies do and play a book fairly close to the vest . They are the ones I mentioned that will go at worst 50-50 and have runs that will break the local books (which I have seen many times) .

                          My husband would have to seek-out new books on a regular basis because they refused to play with him , and that still goes on today with a select few . I myself use my several out of state locals because of conflicts over this issue and employ ( meaning help ) many who help me to get this done and even they refuse action sometimes .

                          Kids will lose thier candy , cappers will lose thier juice

                          G.L.

                          ***MMM***

                          :cool: :cool: :cool:

                          ps - Wiz , dont you just hate that " Bookem Danno " shit ? and I hope you get back in the fold soon
                          " The Wind Does Not Wait For The Tree To Bend "

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by ************
                            and if you think for one second they want a balanced book, you are dead wrong.
                            Vegas bates the public with the line, I'm not saying all games, but a good part of them. Vegas knows people are like sheeep, steer one and the rest follow.....
                            I disagree with your statement 100%. Of course they bait action. They bait because they know how the public is going to bet. They bait action to even the books.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              frank, you are correct, it is split, but do you have stats where the money was on those games? No you don't, and that is my point.......
                              I booked for over 15 years and believe me when I tell you, John Q public has NO shot at winning, not even 50%

                              Comment

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