Somebody convince me these are good plays or convince me they aren't!

[krunch]

7:00 Villanova at Syracuse -7; I am liking Villanova +7 in this game! Villanova is averaging 71.2 ppg on the road in Big East play and their opponents are averaging 69.5 against them, for a +1.7 scoring margin. Syracuse is averaging 69.5 ppg at home in Big East play and their opponents are averaging 67.8 ppg against them, for a +1.7 scoring margin. Even if you throw in a 3 point home advantage for the Orangemen, I'm still getting +4 pts of value here. Villanova is 5-1 ATS on the road in conference play. Syracuse is 1-5 ATS (Favored in every game) at home in conference play.

Villanova has been using 9 players pretty much this year! Syracuse has been staying with using 2 subs pretty much in the big games! Now here is something, I've been thinking about with the Orangemen. They started this year out winning 13 out of their first 14 games. Since that time, they are only 4-5! Do you think maybe their starters are getting a little burned out? They do have the age/experience advantage in this game starting 3 Juniors, 1 Sophomore, and 1 Freshmen, compared to Nova starting 3 Sophomore's and 2 Freshmen. Villanova does run a pretty big second team using 6'8" Forward Bloch, 7' Forward Charles, 6'9" Forward Sheridan, and 6' Guard Snowden. I give Villanova the edge in the substitution of players. Syracuse has been using McNeil a 6'8" Forward and 6'5" Guard McCroskey.

The most the Wildcats lost by on the road in Big East play was by 7 pts at West Virginia. They were down 18-37 at the half and their substitutes came in an hit a real quick 5 of 10 shots from the floor to mount a 12 point comeback in the second half. Seems to be their style of play to keeping games close.

10:30 Air Force at BYU -7; I like Air Force in this game and here's why! First of all, these kids are dedicated people as well as dedicated athletes or else they wouldn't be serving their country in the Armed Forces. The Cadets are having one hell of a season going 19-4 so far this year compared to going 12-16 last year! The Cadets are getting some serious revenge against teams that beat them last year!
L35-45 at Utah last yr, this yr W59-58 at Utah
L57-64 vs Wyom last yr, this yr W83-71 vs Wyom
L53-67 at SDS last yr, this yr W 57-43 at San Diego St
L52-57 vs Utah last yr, this yr W 62-49 vs Utah
L43-56 vs BYU last yr, this yr W 74-52 vs BYU
L59-73 at N Mex last yr, this yr W 68-42 at N Mex
L49-51 at Colorado St last yr, this yr W 65-57 at Colorado St
The only MWC team they lost to last year, that beat them again this year was UNLV 63-50 at the Thomas Mack Center in Las Vegas NV. This is quite an accomplishment, to make such a turn around in 1 years time. They presently lead the MWC with a 9-1 record in league play.

Okay people, if someone can talk me off one of these games, please let me hear your reasons why! All feedback will be appreciated!

Thanks Krunch


Okay after posting this forum and double checking my capping, a couple of other sports forum and watching for Mesa's report to come out, this is what i'm playing today!

Memphis -5 1/2 for 3 units
Heat -3 for 3 units
Villanova +6 for 3 units
Air Force +5 1/2 for 3 units (Sorry guys, I'm sticking to my guns on this game) I walked around my living, smoked about a half pack of cigarettes, double-checked what Air Force has done to teams that beat them last year and I'm taking my fly boys in this!

My best bet of the day is !!!!!!!!!!! W Carolina +5 1/2 for 5 units

Well good luck to everyone today, but you guys know I'm on the flyboys, so I'm rooting against you on that game!

Krunch


:D :D

[GermanBettor]

The feedback of the greatest living handicapper....
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would help in this case, but I'm sorry I could not call him up yet!


Play Villanova! Public is against us and so we have a good chance here...


I'll play BYU small, but I do not really think AirForce will cover the spread. I see the result somewhere like:
37 to 67 for BYU!

Good luck
GB

[krunch]

German Bettor!

Thanks for your feedback! I know BYU is tough to beat at home, but look what the Cadets have accomplished this year. They beat Utah in Utah this year, thats no easy task to say the least and BYU in my opinion isn't any stronger than Utah at their home court. Utah has owned BYU over the years and the Cadets beat Utah twice already this year! I think this Air Force team is on a mission! I think they want to dance come March!

Krunch :D :D

[ezpickin]

I lean nova and byu...byu is beginning to get their groove, and should kill af on the glass...

[MemphisMafia]

Tale of Two Tapes

Granted that the Cadets are on a mission and hittem where it hurts but there is a risk here ( even though I am playing it ) .

BYU is one of those NIT teams that like Fla. St. / Iowa St. / Vanderbilt , to name a few will give unreal efforts @ the house and thier record there proves it . It boils down to ( IMHO ) if Air Force can take them out of thier game and keep up the road pace they have shown so far this year.

I can use building blocks like Mike Greenfield who shows a slight + 3.13 advantage to the Cougars , or Saragin who shows a better + 4.54 , or my alltime favorite ( Sonny Moore ) circa 1974 that gives them a lofty + 6.23 and hes a better anticiapator ( of roadies ) than the others .

But it still boils down to being able to play your game and I feel the Cadets can do such here , I dont see a BYU onslaught of raining threes or the Air Boyz letting go of thier commitment to excellence at defense ( #1 ) or giving away easy buckets with the turnovers ( #4 ) , and throw in the fact that they themselves are knocking down a 8.6 ( 3 pointers per , #7 ) and I think we have a winner here .

G.L.

***MMM***

:cool: :cool: :cool:

[frankb03]

I think there's value in the line with Nova.

Nova 14-8-1 overall, 10-2 on the road ATS
Cuse 7-12 overall, 3-9 at home ATS

I like your Nova selection


BYU is tough at home 12-0 SU and 8-1 ATS. AF Winning SU as a road dog Saturday scares me. While BYU had an easy home winner. At home BYU averages 80 points, giving up 62.

AF has already gotten their revenge against BYU. BYU was blown out by AF by 22 points. It's payback time for BYU.

32, 26, 15, 17, 21 those are the margin of victories for BYU at home vs. AF. AF is 1-5 last 6 at BYU. Their sole ATS winner was 1/2 point as 17 point dog.

Finally, USA Today has AF having the 212 toughest schedule while BYU has the 20th. Dunkel index has by 6

Personally, I can't see a play on AF. I think I just talked myself into a play on BYU

GL

[ez winners]

I love Villanova in this spot. In the other game I would lean with BYU, but that is nothing strong just an oppinion!

[smitty519]

If the revenge factor comes into to play it will be Byu revenging an earlier loss this season on the road, a small play on BYU here for me.

[shorty3830]

krunch

i have not done all my research yet but i am thinking about a * play on BYU........i think air force is a bit overrated and they killed BYU earlier..................sometimes when a team is good for the first time ever like air force, teams do not take them seriously, like utah this weekend

i cannot overlook the loss to texas pan-american and i think they are due to get beat by more than 6

b

[GermanBettor]

My pleasure, Krunch.
Still think BYU is too tough for the Air Force guys...
Whatever, in some hours we'll who was on the right side!

Good luck,
GB

[frankb03]

If the line stays where it is or drops I'll play BYU. If it moves to -6.5 I'll pass.

[GermanBettor]

Frank the line drops to -5,5 at CRIS.

[kenman]

Krunch,

Do you think AF have a chances to win the game SU?? If not, then I would parlay BYU (ML -240) with W CAR +5.5 your best bet play. Just my 2 cents. GL

[frankb03]

Originally posted by GermanBettor
Frank the line drops to -5,5 at CRIS.

My 2 offshore accounts, Pinny and Canbet still have -6.

[MemphisMafia]

Up a few & gettin a few

according to script so far !

61 TO 67 0:00 LEFT ( + 7 aint lookin so bad ? )

" Gut Check Time " ?

G.L.

***MMM***

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