NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (Thur., Dec. 10 - Monday, Dec. 14)

[Udog]

[Udog]

Ravens vs. Browns Week 14 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Ravens vs. Browns

Week 14 Matchup: AFC North
Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Date: Monday, Dec. 14, 2020
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

The AFC North takes center stage to close out Week 14. There aren't many out there that would have had Cleveland coming into this game with a better record by two wins on Baltimore at the beginning of the year. But the Ravens have been hurt by injuries, virus protocols, a constantly shifting schedule, and poor play at times.

On top of it all, to not look much like the 14-2 SU team they were a year ago. But at 7-5 SU and a very soft schedule coming down the stretch, Baltimore's future is still in their own hands. This is still a game the Ravens would prefer to get after Tennessee and Indianapolis won on Sunday to get tonine wins, leaving Miami the lone AFC team currently occupying a playoff spot with fewer wins.

Cleveland has jumped out to a 5-1 home record as the Browns welcome the Ravens. (AP)

Baltimore's got Jacksonville, the Giants, and Cincinnati left to close out the year. A strong finish can still be had, but things are that much more comfortable for them with a win over Cleveland. Baltimore won the first meeting 38-6 SU back in Week 1, but the two teams are quite different now, and Cleveland's confidence is through the roof at the moment.

The Browns enter this game having won four in a row, some in very tough playing conditions, and when a team starts rattling off wins of the “any time, any place,” variety, they become very tough to beat.

So will Baltimore's push towards the playoffs continue with another win over a division rival they typically beat up on, or will “little brother” Cleveland prove they are for real this year and avenge that earlier blowout this season?

Ravens-Browns Betting Odds

Spread: Ravens -2.5
Money-Line: Baltimore -135, Cleveland +115
Total: 47

2020 Betting Stats

Baltimore

Overall: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-7 O/U
Road: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.3 (Rank 13)
Defense PPG: 19.3 (Rank 4)
Offense YPG: 338.3 (Rank 22)
Defense YPG: 337.7 (Rank 8)

Cleveland

Overall: 9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS, 7-5 O/U
Home: 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 25.5 (Rank 15)
Defense PPG: 26.8 (Rank 22)
Offense YPG: 364.3 (Rank 16)
Defense YPG: 361.3 (Rank 19)

Handicapping the Total

The Cleveland Browns are growing rather comfortable playing in adverse weather conditions this year, and Monday's forecast is calling for wind gusts that are big enough to make a significant impact here. Both offenses have strong running games to begin with and will likely lean on them regardless, as even if the wind isn't a big factor, there is only one way I can look at this total; Under.

The first meeting stayed low, and flipping the result this time around would be something I would have been more comfortable with had the forecast not be what it is. However, even in a normal December night for the game, neither coach can have tremendous confidence in either QB chucking it around the yard given the turnover issues both have had this season.

Three turnovers by Cleveland are what did them in during that first meeting, and when the Ravens get a comfortable lead and can lean on teams with their rushing attack – like we saw against Dallas last week too – the chances of success for their opponent are next to none.

Plenty of running plays should be expected regardless, and because of that, and the confidence I've got in both teams to protect the ball much better this time around. Going UNDER the total here is a comfortable approach knowing the potential for wind to cause havoc in the passing game is lurking as well.

The Ravens are on a 2-6 O/U run in their last eight on the road, 1-5 O/U after scoring 30+, and six of their last eight against Cleveland have cashed UNDER tickets as well. Meanwhile, Cleveland's on a 2-9 O/U run at home against a team with a winning road record, 4-10 O/U in their last 14 as an underdog (3-2 O/U this year though), and 6-14 O/U after scoring 30+ themselves.

This game means quite a bit for both sides in terms of playoff seeding, and I believe the cliche of this one looking like a playoff game is how it ultimately plays out. With points coming at a premium.

Head-to-Head History

Sep. 12, 2020 - Baltimore 38 vs. Cleveland 6, Ravens -7, Under 47
Dec. 22, 2019 - Baltimore 31 at Cleveland 15, Ravens -9.5, Under 48.5
Sep. 29, 2019 - Cleveland 40 at Baltimore 25, Browns +7.5, Over 47

Handicapping the Side

If you've ever questioned how much impact the last game played by NFL teams can have early in the market, all you have to do is look back at how this line has reacted throughout the week.

Before Baltimore played on Tuesday last week, an opener of Baltimore -2.5 was bet into the pick'em range on the back of Cleveland's strong performance in a win over Tennessee. Sight unseen for the week, the Ravens were getting bet against early and often with plenty wanting to take any plus-money or points they could with a Cleveland ML or ATS bet, fearing we'd have a scenario where the favorite flips.

Well, the Ravens responded with their own strong performance on Tuesday in blowing out the Cowboys. Once that result was final, out this line came back crawling up to it's open of -2.5 on Baltimore. Baltimore near a pick em price all of a sudden seemed cheap, and the Ravens plays got snatched back up.

Now here we are 24 hours before kickoff and the number has essentially remained static, although that's far the from truth. Belief in the Browns is hard not to have to some degree with how they've played the past month or so, winning all of these “any time, any place” games.

With weather expected to be another concern for this game – heavy wind gusts are expected – Cleveland on their own field having played in similar conditions already only furthers any Browns argument.

However, when the team on the other side of the field leads the league in rushing yards per attempt (5.2 yards per rush for Baltimore), the advantage Cleveland has had in that regard (ranked 4 th in rush yards per attempt at 4.9) against previous foes in poor weather does negate some of the Cleveland enthusiasm.

Never mind that it's also a division rival who has frustrated QB Baker Mayfield on numerous occasions throughout his career. If the wind does pick up as expected, I would think that both sides rely heavily on their rushing attacks with the one the executes better in the end is the one that comes away with the victory.

I do lean towards the Ravens in that regard, but part of that is steeped in futures wagers I've made on Baltimore in the past, and the doubt of really believing Cleveland is a mature enough team to take that next step 9-3 SU teams do to legitimize themselves as true contenders.

This is also just the second game in Cleveland's last six that they've played a team with a winning record, with Tennessee being the other last week. Still would prefer to take the approach of forcing Baker Mayfield and the Browns to beat me in that regard for Cleveland games right now, but a Browns outright win would not be shocking at all.

That said, Baltimore finds a way to get it done to make their playoff standing sturdier.

Key Injuries

Baltimore

Cleveland

2020 Monday Night Football (MNF) Betting Results

Home-Away: 4-9 SU, 7-6 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS
Over-Under: 6-7

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Tampa Bay 26, Minnesota 14
— Buccaneers hold on to #6 seed in NFC with this win.
— Tampa Bay is 8-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Buccaneers sacked Cousins six times.
— Tampa Bay averaged 8.5 ypa, Minnesota 4.0

— Vikings’ kicker missed three FGs and an extra point.
— Minnesota is 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games as road underdogs, 3-1 TY.
— All six Viking road games stayed under the total.
— Minnesota is one game out of last Wild Card slot, with three weeks left.

Kansas City 33, Miami 27
— On first three drives, Mahomes threw two INTs, took a 30-yard sack.
— On drives 4-7, Chiefs ran 19 plays for 219 yards, scored three TD’s.
— Chiefs won their last eight games overall.
— Kansas City won all seven of its road games this year (4-3 ATS)

— Miami loses for only second time in their last nine games.
— Dolphins allowed Kansas City to gain 9.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Miami is 2-5 this season when it allows more than 17 points.
— Dolphins have 15 takeaways in last six games (+9)

Green Bay 31, Lions 24
— Green Bay won five of last six games, scoring 33.3 ppg in last four.
— Packers scored 30+ points in nine of their wins; 10-22-31 points in losses.
— Green Bay’s first two drives: 15 plays, 144 yards, 14 points.
— Packers are now tied with Saints for top seed in the NFC.

— Lions lost their last four games with Green Bay, 42-21/31-24 this year.
— Detroit gave up 379 rushing yards in two games with the Packers.
— Game was 14-all at half, but Lions threw ball 40 passes, ran it only 15 times.
— Detroit allowed 27+ points in six of its last seven games.

Tennessee 31, Jaguars 10
— Tennessee ran the ball for 249 yards; Henry had 215 of them.
— Titans won five of their six road games this year.
— Tennessee ran 65 plays, only nine of them on third down.
— Titans remain tied for first with Colts in AFC South.

— Jaguars lost their last 12 games, after winning their opener.
— Jacksonville lost seven of last eight games vs Tennessee
— Jaguars gained 81 yards, had only five first downs in first half.
— Minshew replaced Glennon at QB, threw for 178 yards.

Cowboys 30, Cincinnati 7
— Andy Dalton returned to Cincinnati and got a win.
— Cowboys win for only 2nd time in their last eight games.
— First time this year Dallas won a game by more than 3 points.
— Cowboys scored their first TD on a 78-yard fumble return.

— Bengals lost last five games by a combined 124-50.
— Cincinnati has only five TD’s on its last 53 drives.
— Bengals lost three fumbles, were minus-3 in turnovers.
— Cincinnati actually outgained the Cowboys, 309-272

Arizona 26, NJ Giants 7
— Arizona’s first two drives started in Giant territory; they scored only 3 points.
— Cardinals were in red zone seven times, scored 26 points.
— Arizona allowed only 10 first downs, had 8 sacks.
— Cardinals re-gained the 7-ssed in NFC, the last playoff spot.

— Giants lost for first time in their last five games.
— Giants fumbled five times, lost three of them.
— Giants are 3-13 ATS in last 16 games as a home dog, 2-3 TY.
— Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.

Chicago 36, Houston 7
— Complete no-show by Houston; they were outgained 410-263
— Texans in second half: 34 plays, 89 yards, 9 first downs, no points.
— Houston is 0-8 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans averaged only 4.2 yards/pass attempt.

— Chicago’s first play was an 80-yard TD run by Montgomery.
— Bears snaps six-game skid with this resounding win.
— Chicago sacked Texans’ QB’s seven times.
— Bears are 14-5-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home dog, 3-2 TY.

Broncos 32, Panthers 27
— Denver won for only second time in last eight games.
— Broncos are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as road underdogs, 5-2 TY.
— Denver’s first score was an 83-yard punt return by Spencer.
— Denver averaged 9.6 yards/pass attempt, their best mark of the year.

— Carolina lost seven of its last eight games.
— Panthers are 10-18 ATS in last 28 games as home favorites, 0-3 TY.
— Carolina is 0-9 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
— Panthers’ only TD drive came on a 3-yard drive after a fumble.

Colts 44, Raiders 27
— Colts won six of their last eight games.
— Indy had ball 8 times, scored 4 TD’s, kicked 3 field goals.
— Colts are 7-0 when they score 28+ points. 2-4 when they do not.
— Last five games, Colts outscored opponents 79-23 in 2nd half.

— Las Vegas lost three of last four games, giving up 37.5 ppg.
— Raiders lost four of their six home games.
— Over is 10-3 in Raider games this season.
— Last three games, Las Vegas allowed 11 TD’s on 32 drives.

Seattle 40, NJ Jets 3
— Winless Jets are 4-9 ATS, covering four of last six games.
—Jets had ball 7 times in first half, tried 4 FG’s, but missed 3 of them.
— Jets have been outscored 97-44 in 2nd half of their last eight games.
— Jets are 9-21-2 ATS in last 32 games as road dogs, 1-5 TY.

— Seattle is 4-4 in its last eight games, after a 5-0 start.
— Seahawks ran ball for 174 yards, outgained Jets 410-185.
— Seattle is 5-2 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— Last five Seattle games stayed under the total.

LA Chargers 20, Atlanta 17
— Chargers kicked a 43-yard FG at the gun to snap a 5-game skid.
— Atlanta had ball four times in 2nd half, threw three INT’s.
— Teams combined to convert 18 of 27 third down plays.
— Falcons had ball in red zone three times, scored only 10 points.

— Chargers screwed up clock management at end of 1st half, had ball on 8-yard line but didn’t score.
— This was first time in ten games Chargers allowed fewer than 27 points.
— Atlanta led six of its last eight games at halftime; they won 4 of those games.
— Chargers are 3-4 SU at home, beating Jets/Jaguars/Falcons.

Eagles 24, Saints 21
— New Orleans had its eight game win streak snapped.
— Saints in first half: 28 plays, 93 yards, 5 first downs, no points.
— Saints were outgained 413-358; Hill was sacked five times.
— New Orleans/Green Bay are tied for #1 seed in the NFC.

— Rookie QB Hurts threw for 167 yards, ran for 106 more, won his first NFL start.
— Eagles snapped a 4-game skid, running ball for 246 yards.
— Philly is 4-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-8-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Eagles missed a 22-yard FG at end of first half, when they led 17-0- it is the shortest missed FG in the NFL this season.

Washington 23, San Francisco 15
— Washington’s defense scored two TD’s; their offense didn’t have a TD.
— Washington won five of last seven games, covered six of last eight
— Washington outscored last six opponents 108-30 in second half.
— Washington is 18-12-1 ATS in last 31 games as a road underdog.

— 49ers lost five of their last six games SU.
— SF is 5-15 SU in last 20 games Garoppolo didn’t play.
— 49ers had ball six times in 2nd quarter: 21 plays, 37 yards, 2 turnovers,
no points.
— SF outgained Washington 344-193; their three turnovers killed them.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 14
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Eagles (+7.5, ML +290) vs. Saints, 24-21
Broncos (+4, ML +170) at Panthers, 32-27
Washington (+3, ML +130) at 49ers, 23-15

The largest favorites to cover

Seahawks (-16.5) vs. Jets, 40-3
Titans (-7.5) at Jaguars, 31-10
Buccaneers (-7) vs. Vikings, 26-14

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Houston Texans-Chicago Bears game had a total of 46.5. If you were an 'over' bettor, you might have started celebrating a little bit at halftime. The Bears, who average just 21.7 points per game, scored 23 points in the second quarter, taking a 30-7 lead into the break. Over bettors needed just 10 total points in the second half and they would be holding a winning ticket.

However, in the second half, the Texans offense continued to struggle, and the Bears were able to cobble together a pair of drives for field goals, winning 36-7. Under (46.5) bettors were left shaking their heads after it looks like an 'over' result was all but in the bag. Houston has now hit the under in four of the past five games, and Chicago has hit the under in seven of the previous 10.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Kansas City Chiefs-Miami Dolphins battle was a huge disappointment if you were holding a Chiefs (-7) ticket, and it wasn't terrible enjoyable if you were an 'under' (51.5) bettor, either.

QB Patrick Mahomes and company were leading 14-10 at halftime, and they put their foot on the gas in the third quarter and extended the lead to 30-10, including a 67-yard punt return for score by WR Mecole Hardman, and a safety. Things were looking up if you were laying the touchdown, but that's always a tough cover on the road.

The Dolphins stormed back with a pair of touchdowns, cutting Kansas City's lead to 30-24. QB Tua Tagovailoa had the 1-yard plunge with 4:15 to go, and that clinched the 'over'.

With just 68 seconds remaining in regulation, PK Harrison Butker booted a 46-yard field goal, and the Chiefs were up 33-24. It appeared they might have gotten the cover back. However, the Dolphins moved the ball down the field and elected to kick the 44-yard field goal first, since they needed two scores. That cut the lead back to 33-27, and it was like losing twice for Chiefs side bettors.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the New Orleans Saints-Philadelphia Eagles (42.5) matchup. Instead of QB Drew Brees vs. QB Carson Wentz, it was Taysom Hill-Jalen Hurts, as Brees is out with an injury to his ribs, and Wentz was benched last week in favor of the more mobile rookie.

The game got off to a slow start after a scoreless first quarter, and the Saints didn't get their first points until the third quarter, cutting a 17-0 lead to 17-14. Under bettors were still looking good with 6:22 to play, as the Eagles saw RB Miles Sanders score his second touchdown of the game, making it 24-14. But with 1:24 to go, TE Jared Cook made a tremendous grab in the back of the end zone to make it 24-21. That was the final score, much to the dismay of 'under' bettors.

The highest total on Sunday was the Green Bay Packers-Detroit Lions (56) tilt, and they tried late to make it go 'over'. The Packers scored seven or more points in each their four quarters, including a total of 20 combined points.

If you bet this game early in the week, you might have gotten the line at 55, for a push, or even at 54 briefly, for an over. But since it closed at 56, we'll officially call it an under.

In the first primetime game Thursday night, the New England Patriots-Los Angeles Rams (43.5) game easily went 'under', and it was never really in doubt. The Rams scratched out a 24-3 win over the Pats, cooling them off. In chilly conditions with flurries in western New York, the Buffalo Bills upended the Pittsburgh Steelers (48.5) by a 26-15 count, yet another under for primetime bettors with the Baltimore Ravens-Cleveland Browns (45.5) still pending.

So far this season the under is 26-15 (63.4%) across 41 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 15

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Chargers slapped the breaks on an 0-6 ATS skid with a win and cover over the Falcons on Sunday, 20-17. Previous to Sunday's game against Atlanta, the Bolts only had a victory over the winless New York Jets since Oct. 25, or Week 7. That includes a 31-26 setbvack against the Raiders at SoFi Stadium in L.A., as Las Vegas cover a one-point number as road favorites as the 'over' (52) connected.

The Raiders were drummed 44-27 at home against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, and they fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther as a result, naming Rod Marinelli as the interim DC. The Raiders have allowed 28 or more points in four straight, and 43 or more points in two of the previous three. Vegas enters Thursday's game on an 0-3 ATS skid after a 4-0 ATS run from Weeks 8 through 11.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Panthers were toppled 32-27 by the Denver Broncos at home on Sunday, failing to cover as the 'over' (46.5) connected. Carolina has lost nine games this season, but seven have been one-score games. They covered in their most recent road game against an NFC North team, the Minnesota Vikings, but they're 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS in three games vs. the North this season.

For the Packers, they clinched the NFC North Division title with a win in Detroit, but they will likely keep their foot on the gas since there is just one bye at stake in this season's playoffs, so expect them to continue bringing their best. Green Bay has won three in a row since an overtime setback at Indianapolis in Week 11, and they're 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in six home games at Lambeau Field this season.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Colts picked up a 26-20 victory on the road against the Texans in Week 13, and now they meet again just two weeks later. If you remember, QB Deshaun Watson had a costly fumble late in the fourth quarter in the red zone, as the Texans were driving for a much-needed, and rare, win. As such, the Colts picked up the win and cover as 3.5-point favorites, moving to 4-1 ATS across the past five, while the 'over' is also 4-1 during the span.

The Texans have managed just 13.5 PPG across the past two games, while allowing 31.0 PPG, going 0-2 SU/ATS during the span as the 'under' has cashed. The under is also 4-1 in their previous five, including that game against Indy.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Steelers are on a two-game skid after opening the season 11-0 SU. That includes back-to-back losses to the Washington Football Team and the Bills, and they're 0-3 ATS across the past three. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four, and 5-0-1 in the previous six, including a push on the total in a 36-10 win over the Bengals in Week 10, easily covering a 6.5-point number.

The Bengals offense is in disarray since losing QB Joe Burrow (knee) to a season-ending injury in Week 11 in Washington. Since the third quarter of that game they have managed just 31 points across the past 14 quarters.

[Udog]

NFL Odds Week 15: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Movement
Patrick Everson

Alvin Kamara and the Saints put together a nine-game win streak, but will start anew after a Week 14 loss. New Orleans has a tough Week 15 chore, sitting as a 4-point home underdog to Kansas City.

NFL Week 14 has some Monday unfinished business, but NFL Week 15 odds won't be denied, with several games already seeing action. A key AFC-NFC matchup highlights the schedule, with the Kansas City Chiefs facing the New Orleans Saints, and the Seattle Seahawks travel to face the surprisingly surging Washington Football Team.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 15 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 15 Odds

Chargers at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders -3, Over/Under 55

Why the line moved
Las Vegas is now on the outside looking in for the AFC playoffs and very much needs a win Thursday night, after getting run out of its own building 44-27 by Indianapolis in Week 14. Los Angeles, which has lost seven one-score games this season, finally won one Sunday at home, edging Atlanta 20-17 on a final-second field goal.

"We opened the Chargers +3 (-120) and are still there," Murray said Sunday evening. "We took a number of bets on the Chargers on our look-ahead number (+3.5) and would definitely expect wiseguys to get involved on the Chargers if the number goes any higher."

Texans at Colts Odds
Opening line
Colts -7.5, Over/Under 52

Why the line moved
Indianapolis put a 40-plus burger on Las Vegas in Week 14, notching a 44-27 road victory to improve its playoff hopes. On the flip side, Houston went to the Windy City and got blown away in a 36-7 loss.

The SuperBook opened the Colts at -7.5, and perhaps surprisingly, the first move was toward the Texans, as the line ticked to -7 later Sunday night.

Panthers at Packers Odds
Opening line
Packers -9, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
Green Bay got a little more than it expected at Detroit, especially in the first half, but notched a 31-24 Week 14 victory and is currently the NFC's top playoff seed. Carolina went off as a 4-point home favorite against Denver and lost outright 32-27.

The Packers opened -9 at The SuperBook, and the line was stable Sunday night.

Bills at Broncos Odds
Opening line
Broncos +4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Denver went to Carolina and came away with a modest upset in a 32-27 victory Sunday. Buffalo notched an impressive 26-15 home win over Pittsburgh in the Week 14 Sunday nighter, the Bills' third straight win and sixth in seven games as they solidified their spot atop the AFC East.

The Bills opened -4, and per The SuperBook's standard operating procedure, the game came off the board during the Steelers-Bills Sunday night game. Bills-Broncos will go back up Monday morning.

Lions at Titans Odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF

Why the line moved
Tennessee rebounded from its home loss to Cleveland by plowing over Jacksonville 31-10 on the road Sunday. Detroit made Green Bay work a bit, but fell short at home 31-24, and quarterback Matthew Stafford left in the fourth quarter with a rib injury.

The SuperBook held off posting the Lions-Titans matchup while awaiting clarity on Stafford's status.

Jets at Rams Odds
Opening line
Rams -16.5, Over/Under 44

Why the line moved
Los Angeles benefits from the mini-bye this week, after routing New England 24-3 in the Week 14 Thursday nighter. Meanwhile, New York remains winless (0-13 SU, 4-9 ATS) after getting boatraced 40-3 at Seattle on Sunday.

The Rams opened at a hefty -16.5, up three points from last week's look-ahead number at The SuperBook. Later Sunday night, Los Angeles stretched a tick higher to -17.

Buccaneers at Falcons Odds
Opening line
Falcons +3.5, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
Tom Brady and Tampa Bay lost two in a row and three of four, putting their playoff position in peril, but bounced back Sunday with a 26-14 home win over Minnesota. Atlanta came up short at the Los Angeles Chargers, losing 20-17 on a final-seconds field goal.

The Buccaneers opened -3.5 Sunday evening and within a few minutes moved to -4 at The SuperBook.

Patriots at Dolphins Odds
Opening line
Dolphins -3, Over/Under 42.5

Why the line moved
Miami gave defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City a game, but just didn't have enough in a 33-27 Week 14 home loss. New England went to Los Angeles and got belted 24-3 by the Rams in the Thursday nighter, so at the least, the Patriots will have a little more rest this week.

"We opened the game Dolphins -3 (-110), took some money on the Patriots and moved to Patriots +2.5," Murray said. "It will be interesting to see how the rookie Tua Tagovailoa fares in his first match up with Bill Belichick."

Seahawks at Washington Odds
Opening line
WFT +3.5, Over/Under 43

Why the line moved
Washington topped San Francisco 23-15 Sunday, playing at the Arizona Cardinals' stadium, and has now won and cashed four in a row to take control of the plodding NFC East. Seattle bounced back from its shocking home loss to the New York Giants by bashing the New York Jets 40-3 at home.

"We opened Seahawks -3.5 and moved quickly to -4.5," Murray said. "The move makes sense. Seattle righted the ship today against the Jets, and the public will be all over the Seahawks in this game, even after seeing Football Team win a few in a row and move into first place. Books will be rooting for 'Team' pretty big on Sunday."

Bears at Vikings Odds
Opening line
Vikings -3.5, Over/Under 45.5

Why the line moved
Chicago surprisingly pulled it together in Week 14, flattening Houston 36-7 to snap a six-game skid (1-5 ATS). Minnesota, meanwhile, fell at Tampa Bay 26-14. Bears-Vikings was on the move right away Sunday night, with Minnesota down a half-point to -3 (-120).

"We opened Bears +3.5 and took money right away on Chicago. Our look-ahead line on that game was too high," Murray said, alluding to the Vikings -6.5 look-ahead number posted last week. "The Bears are a different beast with Akiem Hicks in there."

The defensive end helped Chicago put the clamps on Deshaun Watson and the Texans.

Jaguars at Ravens Odds
Opening line
Ravens -12.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Jacksonville had little answer for Tennessee on Sunday, losing at home 31-10. Baltimore still has Week 14 work to do in the Monday nighter at Cleveland. The SuperBook went ahead and installed the Ravens as 12.5-point favorites, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Browns at Giants Odds
Opening line
Giants +3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York's impressive runs of 4-0 SU and 5-1 ATS came to a crashing halt on its home field in Sunday's 26-7 loss to Arizona. Cleveland is on a four-game win streak, but still has unfinished Week 14 business, with a key home game Monday night against Baltimore.

"We opened the Browns -3.5 and are still there," Murray said. "It's funny to see this game flexed to Sunday night. I wonder if the NFL is regretting that after the Giants' performance today. We’ll need the Giants, but I don’t think it’ll be as high volume of a game as the Chiefs-Saints game that afternoon or a typical Sunday night matchup."

Eagles at Cardinals Odds
Opening line
Cardinals -5.5, Over/Under 48.5

Why the line moved
Arizona got a much-needed 26-7 win at the New York Giants, pulling into the NFC's seventh and final playoff spot for the moment. Philadelphia, with rookie QB Jalen Hurts starting, entered its game against New Orleans as a 7.5-point home 'dog and exited with a 24-21 outright upset.

The Cardinals opened -5.5 at The SuperBook, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Chiefs at Saints Odds
Opening line
Saints +3.5, Over/Under 51.5

Why the line moved
Patrick Mahomes had an errant game against Miami, throwing three interceptions Sunday. But after falling behind 10-0, Kansas City scored 30 consecutive points and hung on for a 33-27 road win. That's more than New Orleans could say after its nine-game SU win streak and five-game ATS run surprisingly ended in a 24-21 loss at Philadelphia.

"We opened the Chiefs -3.5 and were quickly bet up to -4," Murray said. "This will be the biggest-handle game of Week 15. The public will be squarely on the Chiefs, especially after seeing the Saints lose today in Philadelphia."

49ers at Cowboys Odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved
Dallas halted a 1-6 SU skid (2-5 ATS) by coasting past host Cincinnati 30-7 in Week 14. San Francisco became Washington's latest victim, losing 23-15 in the Niners' short-term home at the Arizona Cardinals' stadium.

"We had this game at pick’em, and we took a bet on the 49ers right away. We are at San Francisco -1 now," Murray said Sunday evening, a couple of hours before the Niners stretched to -2 on more sharp action at The SuperBook. "San Francisco is a very depleted team, and it showed today, but Dallas has plenty of problems of its own. Good move by the NFL flexing this game out of Sunday night. I don't think it’ll be a high-volume game."

Steelers at Bengals Odds
Opening line
Bengals +12, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Cincinnati, just trying to ride out this season after losing rookie QB Joe Burrow, was no match for Dallas in a 30-7 home loss Sunday. Pittsburgh got out of the gate this season 11-0, but has now lost two in a row after a 26-15 setback at Buffalo in the Week 14 Sunday nighter.

Still, it was easy for The SuperBook to make the Steelers double-digit favorites at -12 in the Week 15 Monday night game. The game came off the board during the Steelers-Bills tilt and will go back on the board Monday morning.

[Udog]

NFL Betting Tips for Week 15: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Indianapolis Colts offense has picked up the pace, making them one of the top two-way teams in the NFL heading into the home stretch of the season. Books have the Colts as 7-point home chalk versus Houston in Week 15.

When we started this crazy train called the 2020 NFL season, Week 15 was a stop on the schedule we weren’t quite sure we’d make it to. And while the track has bent a few times due to COVID-19 outbreaks, we have officially hit the home stretch.

Regardless of what’s happened along the way – and there’s been plenty – the best NFL betting strategy way back in Week 1 remains the best approach for the Week 15 odds: get the best of the number. To do so, you’ve got to time your NFL picks perfectly.

Here are our NFL betting tips for the best lines to bet now and the best to bet later.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7): Bet Now

The Colts dismantled the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 14, cruising to a 44-27 victory as 2.5-point road faves in Sin City. Indianapolis’ offense is starting to match strides with its defense (averaging 32.5 points over its last four outings), which is a scary thought for the rest of the AFC.

Oddsmakers pegged the Colts as low as 6-point home chalk on last week’s lookahead lines, but after running over the Raiders and the Texans’ 36-7 tumble in Chicago, Indy officially opened at -7 and this line has already jumped to -7.5 at some sharper books.

The Colts are 9-4 SU and tied with Tennessee atop the AFC South. And with the Titans hosting downtrodden Detroit in Week 15, this homestand versus Houston is a must-win matchup for Frank Reich’s squad. Indianapolis beat the Texans 26-20 in Houston two weeks ago, covering as 3.5-point road chalk, and won’t be sitting at a touchdown much longer for Sunday's clash. Get the Colts at -7 while you can.

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (+4): Bet Later

This spread has already made some serious moves, so if you’re leaning toward New Orleans you might as well wait it out. Books posted Kansas City as low as a 3-point road favorite and that field-goal spread didn’t last long, with money on the visitor powering this spread through the key number to -3.5 and eventually landing on -4 as of Sunday night.

Granted, the Chiefs didn’t look great in their win over the Miami Dolphins, first spotting the Fins 10 points out of the gates then blowing a 30-10 lead, to the dismay of K.C. bettors laying -7.5. The Chiefs allowed 17 points in the fourth quarter and squeezed out a 33-27 victory at Hard Rock Stadium. But at least they didn’t lose to the Eagles.

Nothing piles on the points like losing to a lowly NFC East team, as well as a rookie quarterback making his first start. The Saints played a sloppy game in Philadelphia and fell 24-21 as 7.5-point road faves. New Orleans was hoping to have Drew Brees back for this potential Super Bowl preview, but it doesn’t look like the veteran gunslinger is healthy enough. That’s too bad, because this Taysom Hill-lead offense has looked flat the past two weeks and isn’t ready for a shootout with Patrick Mahomes & Co.

With the spread at K.C. -4, it won’t take much more action to move this line and move it quickly. Bookmakers are hasty to adjust through dead numbers (margins of victory that don’t occur often) and if the public piles on the Chiefs, I could see this sitting -5 or maybe even -5.5 by gameday. If you like NOLA, hold off and see how high this will go.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (Under 51.5): Bet Now

Neither offense is setting the scoreboard ablaze the past month, with the Tampa Toms averaging less than 25 points over the past three outings and Matt Ryan and the Falcons floundering for scores of nine, 16 and 17 points in three of their past four contests.

But, on the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay and Atlanta have held more than their own. The Buccaneers defense has limited foes to only 22.6 points per game on the season while Atlanta has flexed its defensive muscles since canning Dan Quinn in mid-October, giving up an average of just over 20 points per game over its last eight appearances.

These NFC South rivals have yet to play each other in 2020, with Sunday marking the first of two meetings in the final three weeks of the schedule. This Over/Under opened 51.5 and the vig on the Under is starting to climb to -115 at most books, with select markets already dropping to 51 points. If you plan to plunder the Under, get all the points you can now.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (Over 47): Bet Later

The total for this NFC North contest opened at 47 points and is already ticking downward with the number getting as low as 46 at some books Sunday night. Truthfully, this is a tough total to tackle in Week 15 with the Bears' production about as easy to plot as a drunken stumble home from the bar (if bars were still a thing. Thanks COVID... you dick).

Chicago unleashed 36 points on Houston in Week 14, a week removed from a 30-point showing against Detroit. In fact, over the past three games, the Bears have scored more points (91) than they did in the previous five games combined (86), including a 19-13 loss to Minnesota that stayed Under 44.5 points in Week 10. Glad to see that Nick Foles money going to good use. Yeesh.

The Vikings were tripped up in Tampa this past Sunday, starting out strong but watching kicker Dan Bailey botch kick after kick, which sucked all the energy out of the Minnesota offense. The Vikes are in dire need of a victory to stay in the postseason picture and score plenty of points on the fast indoor turf of U.S. Bank Stadium (29.1 points per home game). The Over/Under trends between these divisional foes scream Under (3-6 O/U last nine meetings) but if you’re into bucking the trends and taking the Over, be patient and see if this dips below 46 points.

[Udog]

Hot & Not Report - Week 15
Matt Blunt

Week 15 NFL Betting Angles

Fifteen weeks into the NFL season and I'm getting excited for this regular season to conclude, if for no other reason then it's getting harder and harder to find significant and actionable patterns in all the raw data each week to craft this piece.

Streaks and runs that I've brought up in the recent past all eventually come to an end – fading the highest-scoring team over their past three games and backing the lowest-scoring team in their past three games went 0-2 ATS on Sunday (fade Tennessee, back Cincinnati) – which was to be expected from someone like me who believes riding streaks in this industry is flawed to begin with.

Those same two teams – Tennessee and Cincinnati – enter Week 15 in those same roles (fade Tennessee, play on Cincinnati) in the PPG over the last three situations.

But riding streaks is still a popular way to approach handicapping games, so this week's piece is for all the streak chasers out there that may prefer to use this year's data only.

It's actionable enough for this week for a few specific games, but as always, should only be used as support – if they so choose - for one's overall argument in why to back a team.

The following information also suggests the limitations there are with riding streaks from a pure numbers standpoint in oddsmakers adjusting spreads (and totals), so keep that in mind as well.

Hopefully I can continue to find the patterns in the raw data these next two weeks, but for Week 15, let's go with this:

Who's Hot

-- The Philadelphia Eagles have never won two straight games ATS in 2020
-- The New York Giants and Miami Dolphins have not lost two straight games ATS in 2020

Thanks to the Dolphins late comeback and squeaking through the back door against Kansas City on Sunday, they actually aren't applicable in Week 15, but after the Eagles won and covered against New Orleans, and the Giants lost both SU and ATS to Arizona, we've now got those two NFC East teams in roles of fade and play on in Week 15.

Fading the Eagles means that backing the Arizona Cardinals – the team to just beat NYG – as favorites of around a TD currently would make the card.

Who Could You Follow in Week 15?

New York Giants
Arizona Cardinals

Based on what we've seen last, going against the underdog Eagles will be tough for some to stomach given they looked like a team that was completely rejuvenated with the quarterback switch they made handing things over to rookie Jalen Hurts.

Hurts and the Eagles offense did a lot of things that worked against one of the league's top defenses on Sunday, and now they get to face a Cardinals team that's got a defense that's a huge step back (statistically) then what the Eagles saw from New Orleans.

Interestingly enough, another Hurts start this week pits the last two Oklahoma Sooners QB's against one another, the second time in their young careers that Hurts and Kyler Murray will share a field with one another.

The first came back in the 2018 College Football Playoff semifinal game between Oklahoma and Alabama, when Hurts was the backup QB for Alabama in a 45-34 win by the Crimson Tide.

Hurts will throw more than one pass attempt this time around though, but at the same time, you can't take a whole lot away from Arizona and how thoroughly they dominated the Giants. That same New York team that is 1-1 SU (2-0 ATS) and probably should have swept the season series with Philadelphia.

The Eagles are a different team now with the QB switch, but it's still a rookie QB making his first career road start, historically a bad situation for backing said rookies.

But as has been the case in 2020, rookie QB's making their first road start has completely flipped (4-0 ATS) - thanks to no screaming fans - as there has been a 35-30 loss (but ATS win) for Joe Burrow in Cincinnati @ Cleveland, a 34-31 SU win (and ATS win) for Tua Tagovailoa and Miami @ this same Arizona Cardinals team, a 38-31 SU loss (but ATS win) for Justin Herbert and LAC @ Tampa Bay, and a 24-20 SU loss (but ATS win) for Jake Luton and Jacksonville vs Green Bay.

So pick which streak you want to side with there.

Backing the New York Giants this week means that you'll be taking points with them at home vs Cleveland on Sunday Night Football, a line that will undoubtedly react to whatever the Browns performance on Monday Night Football turns out to be. As of this writing – three hours before MNF – New York is catching +3.5 most places as the home 'dog there, a number that likely won't drop too much further should Cleveland put up a stinker vs Baltimore, but one that will surely grow should the Browns go out and win convincingly on MNF.

It's the second straight week in this piece that the suggestion has been to go against Cleveland, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. The Cleveland Browns as a “hunted” team is such a new concept to wrap your head around this year after so many years of futility, and yet, even in situations that have nothing to directly do with Cleveland, we can still find positive situations for their opponent to suggest fading Cleveland like the popular choice has been for years. That's got to feel like par for the course for Browns fans.

My apologies.


Who's Not

No NFL team this year has had an ATS winning streak of longer than 5 games

So you want to subscribe to riding ATS streaks huh?

Well, what if I told you that only 10 of the 32 teams this year have had losing ATS streaks of more than three games?

What about winning ATS streaks of more than three games only happening for 10 of the 32 NFL teams as well?

Sure, every game and team should be taken under their own consideration and merits, but this year in the NFL, good and bad ATS runs seem to get capped out at three games. The worst of those was Dallas starting 0-8 ATS, with a six-game losing streak against the number for the L.A. Chargers and N.Y. Jets coming in a close 2nd.

The other two teams to go on five-game losing ATS runs – Arizona and Jacksonville – each covered the number the following week (Arizona was this past week vs Giants), and interestingly enough, it's the Kansas City Chiefs who are next up in Week 15 having dropped their last five against the number.

Who Could You Fade in Week 15?

Buffalo Bills

The Chiefs visit New Orleans on SNF which you know will be hyped up in those awful ways I mentioned last week, but this is not about finding an outside-of-the-box reason to back a KC team that looks to be the best in football.

It's about fading the one team that comes into Week 15 on a 5-0 ATS run currently; the Buffalo Bills.

Only WWE commissioner Vince McMahon has a bigger annual budget for breakable tables than "Bills Mafia" members do, although that could have changed with how flush Bills backers bankrolls are right now having gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS their last five games, the lone loss coming on Kyler Murray's walk-off Hail Mary a few weeks back in the desert.

Buffalo's got a quicker turnaround this week with a Saturday date in Denver against the Broncos, and off their SNF win over Pittsburgh, an opening number of Buffalo -5.5 has already jumped a full point. Buffalo is also the 4th NFL team this year to have a shot at covering the spread in six consecutive games, with Pittsburgh (-14 chalk vs Dallas), Miami (-4 chalk vs Denver), and New Orleans (-7.5 chalk vs Philadelphia) all failing in their previous bids to cover six in a row.

Finally, it's interesting to see the Denver Broncos already responsible for stopping one of those previous five-game ATS streaks as a home underdog against another AFC East franchise.

Hard not to have the saying “history always repeats itself” come to mind there. Four of the five Bills games during this streak have had them close in the +/- 3 range, with the home game against the Chargers seeing Buffalo close at -4.5.

So how many points is too many here?

One more note, Washington enters Week 15 on a four-game ATS run, so keep an eye on what they do in Week 15 as home dogs vs Seattle.

Another ATS victory there would put Washington in this fade role in Week 16 when they host Carolina.