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**Udog** · 12-08-2020, 09:30 AM

Betting Recap - Week 13
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Giants (+11, ML +420) at Seahawks, 17-12
Browns (+4, ML +180) at Titans, 41-35
Lions (+3, ML +135) at Bears, 34-30

The largest favorites to cover

Dolphins (-10) vs. Bengals, 19-7
Packers (-8.5) vs. Eagles, 30-16
Colts (-3) at Texans, 26-20

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Philadelphia Eagles-Green Bay Packers game was crazy if you were a side bettor supporting the visitors. The Eagles fell behind 14-3 at halftime, and 20-3 after 45 minutes. If you had Philadelphia +8.5, it wasn't a great feeling.

However, in the second half, Eagles head coach Doug Pedersen replaced struggling QB Carson Wentz with rookie QB Jalen Hurts, mainly for his mobility due to struggles and injuries along the offensive line. Things were looking up, as Hurts tossed his first NFL touchdown, and the Eagles got a 73-yard punt return from another rookie just 82 seconds later, as WR Jalen Reagor housed it to make it a game, 23-16. The Eagles were covering with 6:30 to go in regulation.

However, Eagles side bettors already know it wouldn't last. RB Aaron Jones found some daylight with just under three minutes remaining. He juked, danced down the sidelines, eluded several tacklers and received key blocks for a highlight-reel 77-yard back-breaking touchdown run to make it 30-16. Suddenly, 'under' (50.5) bettors were sweating. Hurts got the ball back and they were driving in Green Bay territory late. However, Hurts tossed an interception to stymie the drive, so Packers side bettors and under bettors were breathing a sigh of relief.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The game between the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans game was one to remember. Or one to forget, depending upon your wager.

At halftime, the Colts (-3) led 24-20, so 'over' (50) bettors were feeling overly excited, perhaps even looking ahead to their late-window bets or even bumping them up on an assumed victory. Surely there would be at least seven points for an easy 'over' in the second half, right?

Well, not only did those seven points for the over result never come, we didn't even get any offensive points at all. The offensive spigot was turned off tight, and we saw just one safety in the fourth quarter. After 44 total points in the first 30 minutes, yep, we had just TWO in the second 30 minutes. Unreal loss if you were holding an 'over' ticket.

We should have had an over, though. And Texans side bettors were also left shaking their heads at the end of this one. The Texans had 2nd and goal from the Indianapolis 2, but QB Deshaun Watson fumbled, and the Colts covered it up for the win, cover and they helped the 'under' hang in there, too.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the Cincinnati Bengals-Miami Dolphins (43), and the result was never in doubt. The Bengals fired out to a 7-0 lead, as WR Tyler Boyd hauled in a long touchdown from QB Brandon Allen. Unfortunately for the Bengals and their side bettors, the best receiver in stripes was ejected for his part in a brawl.

The game turned from there, as the Dolphins posted six in the second, going into the break down 7-6. It was all Dolphins from there, as they outscored the visitors 13-0 in the second half. Despite a low-scoring 19-7 win, they were able to cover the 10, too.

The highest total on Sunday was the Cleveland Browns-Tennessee Titans (54), and the 'over' was never in doubt here. Cleveland took a 10-0 lead after 15 minutes, and they piled up 28 points in the second quarter en route to a 38-7 halftime lead at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.

After the Titans outscored the Browns 14-3 in the third quarter, we had a total of 55 points on the board, and 'over' tickets were already good to go. The Titans mounted a late flurry to cut it to 41-35, making moneyline bettors a little nervous, though.

In the first primetime game Sunday night, the Denver Broncos-Kansas City Chiefs (51.5) game, surprisingly, was a defensive battle. The Chiefs had 10 points in the third quarter, but that was the only time either side had a double-digit total in a single quarter. We had just 38 total points on the board for the easy 'under' result.

With some rescheduling, the Washington Football Team-Pittsburgh Steelers (43.5) game and the originally scheduled Monday nighter between the Buffalo Bills-San Francisco 49ers (47.5) are still on tap, as is Tuesday's Dallas Cowboys-Baltimore Ravens (45) battle.

So far this season the under is 24-14 (63.2%) across 38 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 14

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Patriots hit the road in Week 13 and destroyed the Los Angeles Chargers by a 45-0 count, evening their overall record at 6-6 SU/ATS. Believe it or not, it's the first time this season the Patriots have covered in consecutive games. The 'under' is a perfect 4-0 across the past four games for the Patriots, too.

New England is scheduled to stay in the Los Angeles area and they will face the Rams on Thursday night. The Rams are headed back from Arizona with a 38-28 win in tow. The 38 points marked a season high, and they're now 3-1 SU/ATS across the past four outings. Against AFC East teams, the Rams are 0-2 SU/ATS so far this season.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Titans are coming off a 41-35 loss at home against the Browns. The Jaguars gave it their all in Minnesota, but they fell in overtime against the Vikings. Both sides will meet at TIAA Bank Field.

The Titans have won and covered back-to-back games on the road, winning as underdogs. They'll be favored in this one. Perhaps being favored isn't what they want. Tennessee is just 1-3 SU/ATS across the past four as a favorite.

These teams met back in Week 2, with the Titans hanging on for a 33-30 win over the Jaguars as seven-point favorites, another non-cover and 'over' (44.5) result. The over is 4-0 in the past four for Tennessee, and 9-1-1 across the past 11 for the Titans.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Packers held on for the 30-16 win and cover against the Eagles. It's the first time the Packers have covered in consecutive games, and they've done so as favorite of 7.5 or higher in each outing.

The Lions registered a 34-30 win on the road against the Bears, picking up the victory for interim head coach Darrell Bevell. In case you're scoring at home, interim coaches are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in their first game after taking the new reins.

These teams faced each other at Lambeau Field in Week 2, with the Packers doubling up the Lions 42-21 as seven-point favorites as the 'over' (51) connected.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Ravens blasted the Browns by a 38-6 score in Week 1, easily covering a seven-point number as the 'under' (47) connected.

Baltimore will actually be coming off a short week, as they're scheduled to play Tuesday against the Cowboys at M&T Bank Stadium in Balto. The Browns will have two more days to rest and recover. The Browns enter 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS across the past four outings overall.

The weather has been dismal in Cleveland for the past three games at FirstEnergy Stadium. They averaged just 12.7 PPG in the past three home games, played in two games with a wintry mix and windy conditions, and a steady rain last time out in Week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Looking ahead to Monday's weather forecast, it's supposed to snow for most of the day Sunday, and into Monday morning. It should change over to rain Monday afternoon before the precipitation pulls out. However, we still have a week before the forecast is fine tuned, and if the system slows down, perhaps weather also affects this one, keeping scores down. We'll see.

**Udog** · 12-08-2020, 09:31 AM

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

NJ Giants 17, Seattle 12
— Giants held Seattle without a TD until there was 6:09 left to play.
— Giants won their last four games, covered eight of last nine.
— Seven of Giants’ last eight games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
— Big Blue ran ball for 190 yards; Gallman had 135 of those.

— Seattle is 3-4 in its last seven games, after a 5-0 start.
— Seahawks led 5-0 at halftime, blocking a punt for a safety.
— Teams combined to convert only 7-25 on third down.
— Seahawks are minus-6 in turnovers (3-9) their last five games.

Colts 26, Houston 20
— Houston had ball on 2-yard line with 1:30 left; a poor shotgun snap ended drive.
— Texans lost four of their six home games.
— Houston is 0-7 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Under is 6-0 in Houston’s home games this year.

— Last three games, Colts allowed 83 first half points.
— Indy won four of its last five road games.
— Colts are 7-1 when they score 26+ points. 1-3 when they do not.
— Indy won four of its last five visits to Houston.

Lions 34, Chicago 30
— Detroit scored 14 points in last 2:18 for the unlikely win.
— Stafford was 27-42 passing, for 402 yards, three TD’s.
— Lions snap a 5-game losing streak to Chicago.
— Five of last six Lion games went over the total.

— Leading 30-27, Trubisky was sacked/fumbled on his own 10 with 1:49 left.
— Bears lost their last six games, after a 5-1 start.
— Chicago is 2-6 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite.
— Chicago has only four takeaways in its last six games (-7).

Miami 19, Bengals 7
— Boyd scored on a 72-yard TD pass in first quarter for first score of game.
— Boyd was later ejected after a scuffle; this was chippy game, five players got tossed.
— Cincinnati’s last 7 drives: 36 plays, 88 yards, zero points.
— Bengals lost last four games by a combined 94-43.

— Dolphins won/covered seven of their last eight games.
— Dolphins won/covered their last four home games.
— Miami allowed 17 or fewer points in six of eight wins; 21-31-31-20 in losses.
— Miami is 8-1-1 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.

Minnesota 27, Jaguars 24 OT
— Jacksonville led 16-6 after a pick-6 early in third quarter.
— Jaguars tied game 24-all with 1:08 left, after a 75-yard drive.
— Glennon is 48-77/501 passing in his first two Jaguar starts, but he threw critical INT in OT.
— Jaguars lost last 11 games, but covered four of last five.

— Vikings won five of six games, are currently #7 seed in NFC.
— Minnesota won field position by 10 yards, first time this year they won this stat.
— Vikings have one win this season by more than 8 points.
— Cook ran ball for 120 yards, caught six passes for 59 yards.

Raiders 31, NJ Jets 28
— Carr hit single-covered Ruggs on 46-yard TD pass with 0:05 left.
— Raiders are 5-2 SU on road, winning by 4-8-10-5-3 points.
— Raiders are 2-5-1 ATS in last eight games as road favorites.
— Waller caught 13 passes for 200 yards, two TD’s.

— Jets stopped Raiders on downs in red zone with 1:37 left, didn’t get first down to ice game.
— For long term success of Jets, they need to get #1 pick and parlay it into a bounty of draft picks (or trade Darnold for picks); only a very cynical person would suggest that Ruggs was single covered to give Las Vegas a shot at the win.
— Winless Jets are 4-8 ATS; they ran ball for 206 yards.
— Johnson ran ball for 104 yards, Adams ran it for 74 more.

Saints 21, Atlanta 16
— New Orleans won its last nine games, covering last five.
— Saints allowed two TD’s on opponents’ last 44 drives.
— New Orleans won six of last seven games in this underrated rivalry.
— Last five Saint games stayed under the total.

— Falcons scored 13 points on four drives in red zone; no bueno.
— Atlanta had ball on Saints’ 20 in last 2:00, turned it over on downs.
— Atlanta is 2-4-1 ATS in last seven games as home underdogs.
— Seven of their last nine games stayed under the total.

Browns 41, Tennessee 35
— Browns in first half: six drives- five TD’s and a field goal.
— Mayfield is first Cleveland QB since 1951 to throw 4 TD’s in first half of a game.
— Cleveland won its last four games overall, by 3-5-2-6 points.
— Last five games, Browns outscored foes 68-26 in first half.

— Down 38-7 at half, Tennessee got within 41-35 with 0:28 left.
— 3rd down conversions: Browns 10-16, Titans 2-10.
— Over is 8-2-1 in Titans’ last 11 games.
— Titans are 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.

Rams 38, Arizona 28
— Rams won last seven series games, scoring 34.3 ppg in last four.
— LA has outscored opponents 157-82 in second half of games.
— Rams converted 9-15 third down plays, had 30 first downs.
— Goff was 37-47 passing, for 351 yards.

— Arizona hit 59-yard TD pass on first series; rest of half, they ran 18 plays for 46 yards.
— Cardinals allowed 30.7 ppg in their last six games.
— Redbirds lost four of five games since their bye week.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in nine of its 12 games.

Green Bay 30, Eagles 16
— Eagles lost last four games, by 10-5-6-14, scoring 17-17-17-16 points.
— QB Hurts came off bench, was 5-12/109 passing, throwing a TD pass.
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-8-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Reagor ran a punt back 73 yards for Philly’s second TD.

— Green Bay won four of its last five games, scoring 31-41-30 last three weeks.
— Packers sacked Wentz/Hurts seven times.
— Green Bay is 10-5 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.
— First time in nine games Packers outscored their opponent in 2nd half.

New England 45, LA Chargers 0
— Patriots ran punt back for a TD, blocked FG for a TD.
— New England won field position by 28 yards; that doesn’t count the two TD’s.
— New England won four of its last five games overall.
— Underdogs covered last eight Patriot games.

— Chargers lost their last five games, giving up 32.6 ppg.
— Last three games, LA converted only 14-47 third down plays.
— Chargers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games.
— In their last nine games, Chargers gave up 27+ points every week.

Kansas City 22, Broncos 16
— Denver led this game 10-9 at halftime.
— Broncos lost five of last six games, giving up 32.8 ppg.
— Denver held Chiefs to four FG’s in four trips to red zone.
— Broncos ran ball for 179 yards, trying to keep their defense off field.

— KC didn’t score a TD until there was 1:06 left in third quarter.
— Tyreek Hill made a great catch for a TD in first half, but refs called it incomplete, and no one, not even Hill, realized he caught the ball, so call wasn’t challenged. Very strange play.
— Kansas City won its last 11 games vs Denver.
— Chiefs won their last six games overall, last four by total of 15 points.

**Udog** · 12-08-2020, 09:31 AM

NFL Odds Week 14: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Movement
Patrick Everson

Baker Mayfield and the Browns gave away almost all of a 38-7 lead against the Titans in Week 13, but held on for a 41-35 win. In Week 14, Cleveland opened as a 1-point home underdog to Baltimore.

NFL Week 13 won't wrap up until Tuesday night, but NFL Week 14 odds can't be stopped nor contained, with several games already seeing action. The bookend matchups are among the most noteworthy, with the New England Patriots meeting the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night, and the Cleveland Browns hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 14 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 14 Odds

Patriots at Rams Odds
Opening line
Rams -5, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved
Los Angeles outgunned Arizona in Week 13, 38-28, while New England boatraced the L.A. Chargers 45-0 on the road. That made things a little more challenging for SuperBook oddsmakers.

"The Patriots destroyed the Chargers today, and we opened the Patriots a 5-point underdog vs. the Rams, which was a little lower than our look-ahead line," Murray said. "We took money on the Rams right away and bumped the line up to Rams -6. It should be a pretty-good-handle Thursday game. We will take money both ways."

There was no movement Sunday night on the total of 45.

Packers at Lions Odds
Opening line
Lions +8.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
Green Bay had little trouble in a 30-16 home victory over Philadelphia, and Detroit scored two touchdowns inside the final three minutes to upend host Chicago 34-30. The SuperBook opened the Packers -8.5 and briefly went to -8 before returning to the opening number. The total was stable Sunday night at 54.5.

Titans at Jaguars Odds
Opening line
Jaguars +7.5, Over/Under 53

Why the line moved
Tennessee laid a huge first-half egg Sunday against Cleveland, falling behind 38-7 at halftime, then nearly made it all up in a 41-35 Week 13 loss. Jacksonville was a 10-point underdog at Minnesota and forced overtime, but lost 27-24.

The Titans opened -7.5 at The SuperBook and dipped to -7 for a bit Sunday night, before returning to -7.5. The total was stable at 53.

Cowboys at Bengals Odds
Opening line
Bengals +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Cincinnati took a 7-0 first-quarter lead at Miami, but that was it in a 19-7 loss. Dallas is playing the Week 13 waiting game, traveling to Baltimore for a Tuesday night contest. The SuperBook went ahead and posted Cowboys-Bengals, though, opening Dallas -3.5, and there was no movement Sunday night.

Cardinals at Giants Odds
Opening line
Giants +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York got one of the larger upsets of the season in Week 13, traveling to Seattle, fielding backup QB Colt McCoy and shocking the Seahawks 17-12. Arizona couldn't keep up with the L.A. Rams in a track-meet fourth quarter, losing 38-28. The Cardinals opened -2.5 at The SuperBook, with no line movement Sunday night.

Texans at Bears Odds
Opening line
Bears +3, Over/Under 46

Why the line moved
Both these squads fell short in Week 13, with Houston falling 26-20 to visiting Indianapolis and Chicago giving up two late touchdowns in a 34-30 home loss to Detroit. The SuperBook opened Houston -3 and moved to -2.5 within just a few minutes Sunday night. The total held at 46 Sunday night.

Broncos at Panthers Odds
Opening line
Panthers -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Denver made a respectable showing in the Week 13 Sunday nighter at Kansas City, losing 22-16. Meanwhile, Carolina is rested and ready, coming off a bye week that might allow for the return of star running back Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers opened -3.5 at The SuperBook, and the game came off the board once the Broncos kicked off against the Chiefs. The line will go back up Monday morning.

Vikings at Buccaneers Odds
Opening line
Buccaneers -6.5, Over/Under 52

Why the line moved
Tom Brady and Tampa Bay are coming off a bye week, while Minnesota is coming off back-to-back tight wins to stay in the NFC playoff picture. On Sunday, the Vikings escaped with a 27-24 overtime win laying 10.5 points against visiting Jacksonville.

"We opened the Bucs -6.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The Vikings will be one of our bigger needs of the week, with the Bucs coming off a bye week and the Vikes looking so mediocre today."

The total was also stable Sunday night at 52.

Chiefs at Dolphins Odds
Opening line
Dolphins +7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Miami didn't look particularly great as 10-point home chalk against Cincinnati, but notched a 19-7 victory. And Kansas City got much more than it expected as a 13-point home fave against Denver on Sunday night, holding on for a 22-16 victory.

"We opened Chiefs -7.5, and the game is off the board now with the Chiefs playing on Sunday Night Football," Murray said during the Denver-KC game. "The Dolphins will be one of our biggest needs of the week next Sunday. The Chiefs will be in every moneyline parlay and teaser."

Colts at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Las Vegas nearly gave the New York Jets their first victory of the season, but the Raiders pulled out a 31-28 road win on a 46-yard Derek Carr-to-Henry Ruggs TD pass in the waning seconds Sunday. Meanwhile, Indianapolis held off Houston 26-20.

"We opened Raiders +3 and took some money on the 'dog, and moved them to +3 (-120)," Murray said. "Las Vegas was very, very fortunate to escape with a win today and will face a formidable Colts defense next week. I still think this will be one of the rare instances in which we are rooting for the favorite. This town loves betting on the Raiders."

Jets at Seahawks Odds
Opening line
Seahawks -14, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved
New York's season of utter failure continued in Week 13, when the Jets (0-12 SU) allowed a 46-yard touchdown pass with five seconds remaining in a 31-28 home loss to Las Vegas. Seattle got stung Sunday, too, in a shocking 17-12 home loss as 11-point chalk against the New York Giants.

Still, SuperBook oddsmakers didn't hesitate to hang the Seahawks -14 against the Jets. Within about an hour, the line dropped to -13, then ticked up to -13.5 a few minutes later Sunday night. The total held firm at 47 Sunday night.

Falcons at Chargers Odds
Opening line
Chargers +2.5, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
Los Angeles suffered a 45-0 home drubbing at the hands of New England in Week 13, while Atlanta was dealt a 21-16 home loss by New Orleans. The SuperBook opened the Falcons -2.5, with a total of 49.5, and neither number moved Sunday night.

Saints at Eagles Odds
Opening line
Eagles +6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New Orleans continues weathering the loss of Drew Brees, with backup Taysom Hill helping the Saints go 3-0 SU and ATS while stretching the team's overall streak to 5-0 SU and ATS. Now, there's a chance Brees could return this week from multiple cracked ribs.

The SuperBook opened the Saints -6.5 against the Eagles, who in Week 13 fell at Green Bay 30-16 for their fourth consecutive loss (1-3 ATS). There was no line movement Sunday night.

Washington at 49ers Odds
Opening line
49ers -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Both these teams have Week 13 work to do, with San Francisco hosting Buffalo in the regularly scheduled Monday night game, and Washington traveling to Pittsburgh for a 5 p.m. ET Monday kickoff. The 49ers opened -4 at The SuperBook, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Steelers at Bills Odds
Opening line
Bills +1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh and Buffalo also have unfinished Week 13 business. The undefeated Steelers host Washington in a 5 p.m. ET Monday kick, and the Bills meet the 49ers in a Monday night game moved to the Arizona Cardinals' home stadium due to COVID restrictions in Santa Clara County, Calif.

"The Steelers are -1.5 for now, but both teams play Monday, so we may see an adjustment before this game," Murray said. "It sets up to be a big public play on the Steelers, and the house will likely need the Bills pretty big in this game."

Ravens at Browns Odds
Opening line
Browns +1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Cleveland was beating the daylights out of Tennessee at halftime Sunday, leading 38-7, but then had to hang on for a 41-35 victory. Meanwhile, Baltimore's Week 13 game isn't until Tuesday, when it hosts Dallas in a contest rescheduled due to the Ravens' COVID issues the past two weeks.

"We opened Ravens -1 and are still there. The Ravens play Tuesday night vs. Dallas, and if they lay another egg in that game, we may see Cleveland move to the favorite," Murray said. "The Browns are very quietly 9-3, and the public will be quick to abandon the Ravens if their offense keeps struggling."

**Udog** · 12-08-2020, 09:32 AM

NFL Betting Tips for Week 14: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Atlanta is 4-3 SU and ATS since firing head coach Dan Quinn in mid-October, due in larger part to the Falcons becoming much tougher on the defensive side of the ball.

What kind of Christmas shopper are you: Someone who waits until the last minute, picking through the discount DVD bin at your local late-night pharmacy on December 24? Or do you like to plan out your holiday gift giving, buying up the best deals back in September?

When it comes to the best NFL betting strategy, both last-minute and early-bird shoppers can benefit. The Week 14 odds have been released and these are our top NFL betting tips for the point spreads and totals to bet now, and the best lines to bet later.

Atlanta Falcons (-2) at Los Angeles Chargers: Bet Now

As of Sunday evening, Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn is still employed. But after the Bolts were absolutely bombed by New England at home – losing 45-0 like some FCS cupcake visiting Alabama in September – the heat from his office chair can be seen from space.

Los Angeles has won just one game since November, with that lone victory coming against the New York Jets. And what’s worse is that the Chargers are 0-6 against the spread in that span. The Falcons, their Week 14 opponents, have won three of their last five with those two losses coming to rival New Orleans.

Atlanta knows all about the benefits of canning a crap coach and has been a different team since firing Dan Quinn back in mid-October. Since then, the Falcons are 4-3 SU and ATS and have been much tougher on the defensive side of the ball. During their 0-5 skid to start 2020, Atlanta allowed 32.2 points per game. That’s been trimmed to just over 20 points per outing in the last seven contests.

Regardless of Lynn's job security, this spread is going to go up quickly. Catch the Falcons under a field goal on the road.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5): Bet Later

All aboard the Jalen Hurts hype train! The Eagles rookie passer and former Alabama/Oklahoma QB turned heads with his brief fourth-quarter contributions in Week 13’s loss to Green Bay. Hurts replaced the struggling Carson Wentz and brought Philadelphia within a touchdown before a 77-yard TD run from the Packers denied the backdoor cover.

The Saints added another chain to their now nine-game winning streak, upending the Falcons 21-16. And while NOLA covered for the sixth time during this run, it wasn’t an overly impressive win. New Orleans plays its third straight road game in Philadelphia, where the early forecast is calling for a wet and windy weekend in the City of Brotherly Love (keep an eye, since we’re still a week out). New Orleans has played outdoors just three times this season.

This spread opened Saints -6.5 and the vig is starting to climb on the visitor, indicating a move to a touchdown. If you think Hurts gets another go and are fading the Saints' road-heavy sked, wait it out and grab all the points you can with the Eagles.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (Over 55): Bet Now

Detroit just gave up 30 points to the Chicago Bears—a team that scored a collective 78 points in the month of November. The Lions have doled out points like 2020 hand sanitizer, giving up an average of 29.8 points per outing on the year, and now have the fun task of checking Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who hung 42 points on Detroit back in Week 2.

Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in all but three games this season and has thrived when hitting the fast indoor tracks, averaging 36.5 points per game under a dome. The Cheeseheads have looked like the Swiss variety when away from Lambeau, allowing 28.8 points against as a visitor – fourth-most in the NFL – which has led to a 4-2 Over/Under mark on the road.

That Week 2 42-21 final score played Over the 51-point total and snapped a three-game Under run in this NFC North rivalry. However, the Packers and Lions have topped the total in seven of their last 10 matchups and this number is quickly climbing from 54.5 to 55 points. Jump on that Over now.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 52.5): Bet Later

This total opened 52.5 and there's a slight lean toward the Over with the early movement on the juice. That’s not surprising given how this Vikings defense is playing. However, on the other side of the ball is one of the tightest stop units in the land and an offense that's cooled off with the climate.

Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week and hoping that hiatus can jump-start Tom Brady and the scoring attack. The Buccaneers averaged just over 24 points per game in November after posting 31.7 points an outing in the first two months of the schedule. Luckily, those offensive issues have been mopped up by a stop unit ranked third in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders.

Minnesota managed to get past Jacksonville but needed an extra frame to pick up its fifth win in the past six games. The Vikes' production takes a significant dip when playing on the road, scoring nearly a touchdown less in the role of visitor (23.0 points per road game). Quarterback Kirk Cousins has looked great recently but has played some bullshit defenses over the past month. Cousins is staring down the barrel of one of the most disruptive stop units in the league in Week 14, with Tampa boasting 34 sacks and 20 takeaways.

If you like the Under, see if that shift in vig toward the Over manifests itself into an extra half-point or more before placing your bet.

**Udog** · 12-08-2020, 09:33 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, December 10

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NEW ENGLAND (6 - 6) at LA RAMS (8 - 4) - 12/10/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 47-25 ATS (+19.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-214 ATS (+40.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-214 ATS (+40.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-51 ATS (+34.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-101 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-101 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 204-156 ATS (+32.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 136-94 ATS (+32.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-46 ATS (+18.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-94 ATS (+28.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 93-60 ATS (+27.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
LA RAMS are 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 13

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GREEN BAY (9 - 3) at DETROIT (5 - 7) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 121-86 ATS (+26.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 73-46 ATS (+22.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DETROIT is 151-192 ATS (-60.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 50-74 ATS (-31.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (8 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 11) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 129-165 ATS (-52.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (3 - 8) at CINCINNATI (2 - 9 - 1) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (6 - 6) at NY GIANTS (5 - 7) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
NY GIANTS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
NY GIANTS are 70-48 ATS (+17.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (4 - 8) at CHICAGO (5 - 7) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 57-88 ATS (-39.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (4 - 8) at CAROLINA (4 - 8) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 88-60 ATS (+22.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (6 - 6) at TAMPA BAY (7 - 5) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (11 - 1) at MIAMI (8 - 4) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MIAMI is 44-20 ATS (+22.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 4) at LAS VEGAS (7 - 5) - 12/13/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 59-86 ATS (-35.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 39-67 ATS (-34.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 37-62 ATS (-31.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LAS VEGAS is 1-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
LAS VEGAS is 1-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (0 - 12) at SEATTLE (8 - 4) - 12/13/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
SEATTLE is 72-46 ATS (+21.4 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (4 - 8) at LA CHARGERS (3 - 9) - 12/13/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 53-34 ATS (+15.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (10 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 8 - 1) - 12/13/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (4 - 7) vs. SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 6) - 12/13/2020, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (11 - 0) at BUFFALO (8 - 3) - 12/13/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 14

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BALTIMORE (6 - 5) at CLEVELAND (9 - 3) - 12/14/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in December games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-08-2020, 09:33 AM

NFL

Week 14

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 10

New England @ LA Rams
New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
New England is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

Sunday, December 13

Houston @ Chicago
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Chicago's last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games

Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Jacksonville's last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Denver @ Carolina
Denver
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Carolina
Carolina is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Denver

Minnesota @ Tampa Bay
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Arizona @ NY Giants
Arizona
Arizona is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
NY Giants is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Kansas City @ Miami
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Miami
Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games

Dallas @ Cincinnati
Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Dallas

NY Jets @ Seattle
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
NY Jets is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets

Indianapolis @ Las Vegas
Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Green Bay @ Detroit
Green Bay
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay

Washington @ San Francisco
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
San Francisco is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Washington

Atlanta @ LA Chargers
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing LA Chargers
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 9 games

New Orleans @ Philadelphia
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Philadelphia's last 13 games at home

Pittsburgh @ Buffalo
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Monday, December 14

Baltimore @ Cleveland
Baltimore
Baltimore is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

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**Udog** · 12-09-2020, 08:27 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Thursday’s game
New England (6-6) @ Rams (8-4)
— New England won four of its last five games.
— Underdogs covered last eight Patriot games.
— New England trailed at halftime in seven of its last nine games.
— NE played Chargers in LA Sunday, stayed in town for this game.
— Patriots are 2-4 SU/ATS on road this season, beating Jets/Chargers.
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine games.

— Rams won three of their last four games.
— LA has outscored opponents 157-82 in second half of games.
— Rams won four of five home games SU (3-2 ATS)
— Seven of LA’s last nine games stayed under the total.
— Rams are 10-8-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite, 2-2 TY.
— Rams had 14 takeaways in last six games; had only six in first six games.

— New England won last six series games (two Super Bowls)
— Patriots are 3-2 against Rams in St Louis/Anaheim/LA.

Sunday’s games
Green Bay (9-3) @ Lions (5-7)
— Green Bay won four of last five games, scoring 31-41-30 points in last three.
— Packers scored 30+ points in eight of their wins; 10-22-31 points in losses.
— Green Bay converted 68-142 third down plays (47.9%)
— Packers are 6-5 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 2-1 TY.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine Green Bay games.
— Packers were outscored in 2nd half in 8 of their last 9 games.

— Detroit won last week, in interim coach Bevell’s debut as HC.
— Lions upset Chicago LW, snapping an 0-4-1 ATS skid.
— Detroit allowed 27+ points in five of its last six games.
— Lions are 6-12 ATS in last 18 games as home underdogs, 0-3 TY.
— Detroit is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
— Five of last six Lion games went over the total.

— Lions lost 42-21 in Green Bay in Week 2; Packers ran for 259 yards.
— Green Bay won last three series games, by 1-3-21 points.
— Packers lost four of last six visits to the Motor City.

Tennessee (8-4) @ Jaguars (1-11)
— Tennessee split its last eight games, after a 4-0 statt.
— Titans won four of five road games, winning by 2-1-6OT-19 points.
— Titans were +10 in turnovers the first five games, are minus-2 since.
— Tennessee was down 38-7 at halftime LW, battled back, lost 41-35.
— Over is 8-2-1 in Titans’ last 11 games.
— Titans are 7-9 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite, 0-3 TY.

— Jaguars lost its last 11 games, but covered four of last five.
— Four of their last five losses were by 4 or fewer points.
— Jacksonville lost five of its six home games, upsetting Colts in Week 1.
— Jaguars are 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home dog, 3-2 TY.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— Glennon is 6-18 as an NFL starter; he averaged 6.7/6.0 yards/pass attempt in his first two starts (4.0/3.4 previous two games).

— Jaguars lost 33-30 in Nashville in Week 2; they haven’t won since.
— Jacksonville outgained Titans 480-354 but was minus-2 in turnovers.
— Tennessee won six of last seven series games.
— Titans lost four of last six visits to Jacksonville.

Arizona (6-6) @ NJ Giants (5-7)
— Arizona lost four of five games since their bye week.
— Cardinals allowed 30.7 ppg in their last six games.
— Murray has total of only 61 rushing yards in last three games.
— Redbirds are 5-6 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 2-2 TY.
— Over is 4-2 in last six Cardinal games.
— Redbirds get WR Fitzgerald back from COVID list.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in nine of its 12 games.

— Giants won their last four games, covered eight of last nine.
— Giants are 2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS outside their division.
— Seven of Giants’ last eight games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
— In their last four games, Big Blue ran ball for 162.3 ypg.
— Giants are 3-12 ATS in last 15 games as a home dog, 2-2 TY.
— Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.

— Arizona won last three series games, by 11-23-6 points.
— Cardinals won last three visits to play Giants here, by 21-21-17 points.

Houston (4-8) @ Chicago (5-7)
— Texans won three of their last five games, after a 1-6 start.
— Texans are 2-4 SU on road this year, beating Lions/Jaguars.
— Houston are 0-7 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans had 20+ points at the half in four of last five games.
— Over is 4-1-1 in Houston’s road games this year.
— Texans are 2-3-2 ATS in last seven games as road favorites, 1-1 TY.

— Bears lost their last six games, after a 5-1 start.
— Last three games, Chicago allowed 7.7/7.3/9,1 ypa.
— Bears gave up 10 TD’s on opponents’ last 17 drives.
— Bears are 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home dog, 2-2 TY.
— Chicago has only four takeaways in its last six games (-7).
— Under is 4-2 in Bears’ home games this season.

— Houston won all four series games.
— Texans won 24-5/13-6 in their two visits to Chicago.

Broncos (4-8) @ Panthers (4-8)
— Denver lost six of last seven games, giving up 28.1 ppg.
— Denver lost four of six road games SU (4-2 ATS)
— Broncos allowed 31 ppg in their last three road games.
— Broncos are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as road underdogs, 4-2 TY.
— Denver turned ball over 17 times (-10) in their last seven games.
— Three of their last four games stayed under total.

— Carolina lost six of its last seven games; they covered 3 of last 4.
— Panthers’ lost four of six home games SU, beating Cardinals/Lions.
— Panthers are 10-17 ATS in last 27 games as home favorites, 0-2 TY.
— Carolina is 0-8 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
— Panthers is 4-2 ATS in last six post-bye games.
— Carolina is 0-4 this year in games decided by 4 or fewer points.

— Denver won five of six series games, including 24-10 win in Super Bowl 50.
— Broncos split pair of visits to Charlotte; their last visit here was in 2012.

Minnesota (6-6) @ Tampa Bay (7-5)
— Vikings won five of six games, since their bye week.
— Minnesota covered four of five road games this season.
— Last week was first time this year Vikings won field position.
— Minnesota’s last three games were decided by total of 7 points.
— Minnesota is 6-8-1 ATS in last 15 games as road underdogs, 3-1 TY.
— All five Viking road games stayed under the total.

— Buccaneers lost three of their last four games.
— Tampa Bay is 7-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Last two games, Bucs threw 89 passes, ran ball only 31 times.
— Bucs lost last three home games, to Saints/Rams/Chiefs.
— Under Arians, Tampa Bay is 1-6-2 ATS as home favorites, 1-2-1 TY.
— Last five games, Bucs were outscored 99-44 in first half.

— Vikings won last two series games, 19-13OT/34-17
— Minnesota lost six of last seven visits here; their last win in Tampa was in 2014.

Kansas City (11-1) @ Miami (8-4)
— Chiefs won their last seven games, last four by total of 15 points.
— Kansas City won all six of its road games this year (3-3 ATS)
— Chiefs are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite, 2-3 TY.
— Last four games, Kansas City allowed 25.5 ppg, are 0-4 ATS.
— Chiefs averaged at least 7.6 ypa in each of its last five games.
— Kansas City trailed at halftime in three of last four games.

— Dolphins won/covered seven of their last eight games.
— Dolphins won/covered their last four home games.
— Miami are 2-4 this season when they allow more than 17 points.
— Miami is 8-6 ATS in last 14 games as a home dog, 2-1 TY.
— Dolphins have 11 takeaways in last five games (+6)
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.

— Chiefs won last two series games, 34-15/29-13
— Chiefs won two of last three visits to Miami.
— This isn’t playoff game, but Dolphins are 3-0 vs KC in playoff games.

Colts (8-4) @ Raiders (7-5)
— Colts won five of their last seven games.
— Indy won four of its last five road games.
— Colts are 6-0 when they score 28+ points. 2-4 when they do not.
— Indy is 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite, 4-1 TY.
— Six of their last eight games went over the total.
— Last four games, Colts outscored opponents 55-10 in 2nd half.

— Las Vegas lost two of last three games, giving up 35-43-28 points.
— Raiders are 2-3 SU at home, beating Saints/Denver.
— Raiders are 6-5-1 ATS in last 12 games as home dogs, 2-2 TY.
— Raiders covered four of their last six games overall.
— Over is 9-3 in Raider games this season.
— Last three games, Las Vegas allowed 11 TD’s on 32 drives.

— Raiders won two of last three series games; they beat Colts 31-24 in Indy LY.
— Colts won three of last four visits to Oakland.
— Philip Rivers against the Raiders

NJ Jets (0-12) @ Seattle (8-4)
— Winless Jets are 4-8 ATS, covering four of last six games.
— Jets lost in last minute LW, then fired their DC Monday.
— Jets have been outscored 80-44 in 2nd half of their last seven games.
— Jets are winless, but their turnover ratio is only minus-1.
— Jets are 9-20-2 ATS in last 31 games as road dogs, 1-4 TY.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.

— Seattle is 3-4 in its last seven games, after a 5-0 start.
— Seahawks were outscored in 2nd half of last four games (48-31)
— Seahawks won field position in first five games, but only twice in last seven.
— Seattle is 4-2 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— Last four Seattle games stayed under the total.
— Seahawks are minus-6 in turnovers (3-9) their last five games.

— Seahawks won last three series games, by 10-21-10 points.
— Jets lost 13-3/28-7 in last two visits to Seattle.
— Jets’ last win in Seattle was in 1997.

Atlanta (4-8) @ LA Chargers (3-9)
— Falcons are 4-3 in last seven games, after an 0-5 start.
— Atlanta is 2-3 SU on road, scoring 25.8 ppg.
— Atlanta led five of its last seven games at halftime.
— Last three games, Falcons allowed only 17 ppg.
— Last four years, Atlanta is 2-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Seven of their last nine games stayed under the total.

— Chargers lost their last five games, losing 45-0 last week.
— Bolts are 2-4 SU at home, beating Jets/Jaguars.
— Eight of last ten Charger games went over the total.
— Chargers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games.
— Chargers gave up two TD’s on special teams last week.
— In their last nine games, Chargers gave up 27+ points every week.

— Falcons won eight of ten series games; they won last meeting 33-30 in OT in 2016.
— Atlanta won all six of its visits to San Diego.

Saints (10-2) @ Eagles (3-8-1)
— New Orleans won its last eight games, covering last four.
— Saints allowed one TD on opponents’ last 33 drives.
— Saints allowed 17.1 ppg in their wins, 34-37 points in losses.
— New Orleans won four of five road games; they’re 2-0 outdoors, winning 26-23 in Chicago, 38-3 in Tampa.
— Saints are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite.
— Last four New Orleans games stayed under the total.

— Rookie QB Hurts gets his first NFL start here.
— Eagles lost last four games, scoring 17-17-17-16 points.
— Philly is 1-6-1 SU outside their division.
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-8-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Eagles are 2-3 ATS in last five games as home underdogs.
— Last five games, Philly was outscored 58-17 in first half.
— Eight of last ten Philly games stayed under the total.

— New Orleans won five of last six series games.
— Saints won two of last three visits to Philly.

Washington (5-7) vs San Francisco (5-7) (Glendale, AZ)
— Washington won four of last six games, covered five of last seven.
— Washington outscored last five opponents 98-22 in second half.
— Washington is 2-5 outside the division, with four losses by 14+ points.
— Washington is 2-4 SU on road, losing by 15-14-1-3 points
— Washington is 18-12-1 ATS in last 31 games as a road underdog.
— Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Washington games.

— 49ers played “home” games in Arizona last/this week.
— 49ers lost four of their last five games SU.
— SF is 5-14 SU in last 19 games Garoppolo didn’t play.
— 49ers allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 34.6 ppg in their losses.
— SF has only 53 points in its last 14 red zone drives (3.79 pts/drive)
— 49ers are 5-5 ATS in last ten games as a favorite away from home.

— 49ers won five of last six series games.
— This game is on a neutral field in Arizona because of COVID
— Both teams have short weeks, after games on Monday.

Pittsburgh (11-1) @ Buffalo (9-3)
— Another short week for Steelers, who played Wednesday/Monday last two weeks
— Last two games, Steelers scored only three TD’s on 21 drives.
— Pittsburgh is 9-2 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog, 2-0 TY.
— Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games
— Steelers are +11 in turnovers this season, +6 in last five games.
— Last four weeks, Pittsburgh outscored opponents 65-20 in first half of games

— Buffalo won five of its last six games, covered last four.
— Bills won five of six home games, with only loss to Kansas City.
— Buffalo outscored last four opponents 74-32 in first half.
— Bills scored 24+ points in eight of their nine wins; 16-17-30 in their losses.
— Buffalo covered four of six home games this season.
— 10 of their 12 games went over the total.

— Steelers won six of last seven series games.
— Steelers won last four trips to Buffalo; last one was in 2016.

Monday's game
Baltimore (7-5) @ Browns (9-3)
— Yet another short week for the Ravens, who played Tuesday.
— Baltimore lost four of last six games, after a 5-1 start.
— Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in six of seven wins, 26.8 ppg in losses.
— Ravens won four of six road games SU this year.
— Under is 4-2 in Baltimore road games this year.
— Ravens are 7-2-1 ATS in last ten games as home favorites, 2-2 TY.

— Cleveland won its last four games, scoring 30 ppg in last three.
— Browns scored 6-7-6 points in their losses, averaged 30.8 ppg in wins
— Cleveland won five of six home games, with only loss 16-6 to Las Vegas.
— Cleveland is 11-9-2 ATS in its last 22 home games, 3-2-1 TY.
— Over is 7-4 in their last eleven games.
— Last five games, Browns outscored foes 68-26 in first half.

— Ravens thrashed Browns 38-6 at home in Week 1, averaging 9.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Baltimore won seven of last eight series games.
— Ravens won their last five visits to Cleveland.

**Udog** · 12-09-2020, 09:21 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 14
Matt Blunt

It was another “splitsville” week for backing the lowest scoring NFL team over their past three games (Denver) and fading the highest scoring one (Buffalo) as neither of them were ever really in all that much danger of losing those ATS wagers.

Half of last week's piece dealt with futures odds and I've gone further with that this week in it's own piece for those that are interested in another historical approach involving potential Super Bowl teams and what non-conference division they've matched up this year.

With the way the schedule has been so chaotic this year, Super Bowl contenders matched up with non-conference divisions was a common denominator that made sense to look into and there have been some interesting results since the NFL realigned back in 2002.

This piece will focus more on actionable trends for Week 14 games specifically, as last week's premature awarding of the Raiders win over the Jets was definitely tested this week but ultimately got there.

Following suit it suggests that backing the Las Vegas Raiders again this week makes a lot of sense, and as small home 'dogs vs. Indianapolis, the price is definitely in a very considerable range.

I teased a similar situation that was bitten by the bye weeks in Week 13, but Week 14 brings two teams into that spot, and that's where we will start.

Who's Hot

Fading a team who's last game was against the Kansas City Chiefs this year has produced a 7-2-1 ATS record this year, and 7-3 SU as well.

Similar to teams parlaying a win over the New York Jets with a win the following week, teams that have battled KC this year (all but one has lost to the Chiefs) tend to parlay that game with another ATS or SU defeat as well.

Even the Raiders, who benefited last week (and potentially this week) in playing the Jets, have gone 0-2 both SU and ATS following their two contests with KC, losing 45-20 to Tampa Bay following their shocking upset win over KC (and a bye week) earlier in the year, and followed up their second game with the Chiefs with a 43-6 loss to Atlanta the next time out.

The three sides to not lose an ATS ticket after facing the Chiefs were Baltimore (pushed on -14) when they topped Washington early on, Denver – when they beat the Chargers 31-30 on the final play of the game – and the New York Jets of all teams, when they choked away that MNF game late against the Patriots. That's it. Every other Chiefs opponent has gone out and been an ATS money burner the following week.

Who Could you Follow in Week 14?

Minnesota Vikings
Carolina Panthers

So what does that mean for this week?

Well, even after a bye week – like the Raiders in Week 6 – it puts QB Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a fade spot this week as they host the Vikings. Early action has seen an early uptick in the Bucs going from -6 to -6.5 currently, as this Minnesota team that I've been high on since before the year, continues to push forward towards a potential playoff spot.

Minnesota's on a 0-3 ATS run themselves these past three weeks, but they've squeaked out two wins in those three games (inexplicably losing to Dallas in the other one) and have now won five of six SU overall. This will be the first time the Vikings are catching points in this poor 0-3 ATS run, and even with my slight Vikings bias for future reasons, I do believe taking the points with them makes plenty of sense this week.

The other team to fade in this post-KC role would be the Denver Broncos, who like Tampa have garnered some early support this week, likely in part to what their defense did in containing Patrick Mahomes and company on SNF. Denver's gone from an opener of +4 to +3.5 as they visit the other NFC South team off a bye week – Carolina – in a non-conference game between a pair of 4-8 SU squads.

Carolina's on a 7-3 ATS run over their last 10 games as it is, so backing them won't be hard for those that prefer to ride those things, and it too is another play that seems to make a lot of sense to me this week.

Who's Not

Backing teams after they scored 40+ points in their previous game is on a 3-9 ATS run in the last 12 opportunities, dating back to the start of Week 6.

Washington bucked this trend on MNF with their win (SU and ATS) over Pittsburgh, but that's still only the third win for these 40+ teams in weeks.

In fact, Week 13's action had five teams fit the bill after high scoring Week 12 performances – Houston, Washington, Tennessee, Atlanta, and Green Bay – and two of the three ATS wins here came from that week alone (Washington, Green Bay). Prior to that this scenario was on a 1-6 ATS run in backing these squads since the start of Week 6.

Overall this year the numbers are a little better in this situation as NFL teams scoring 40 or more are 8-11 ATS overall this year, with a 10-8-1 O/U record to boot.

So it is a scenario that wasn't always applicable early in the year, but after an off-season with minimal practice and no preseason games, the way most teams looked in the first month of this season is quite different than the way the majority of them look currently.

Who could you fade in Week 14?

New England Patriots
Cleveland Browns

Week 14 brings us two more teams to fit this bill, as the Patriots and Browns would be the organizations to fade, and both will bring their talents to prime time affairs this week.

New England goes on Thursday Night Football with their second straight game in Los Angeles – this time against the Rams – and already we've seen an opener of L.A. Rams -6.5 get bet against to its current standing of -5.

A 45-0 win for the Patriots will do that in this fickle market, especially when it's a quick turnaround with absolutely no travel to deal with.

The no-travel never happens for a road team on TNF so that's an interesting dynamic to consider this week, but as the last seven weeks have shown in this league, just because a team puts up 40 one week, it doesn't mean they are assured a SU or ATS win the following week.

The Browns are another interesting case as they host Baltimore on Monday Night Football, looking to finally get past a Ravens team that's done nothing but put a beat down on Cleveland in their first meeting.

Baltimore's 38-6 win over Cleveland back in early September was impressive all the way around, but the way things have looked recently for both organizations of late, it's almost like they've flipped roles.

But as has been the theme of this piece it seems, Cleveland's the fourth team in a great fade spot that has got nothing but early support this week, even with Baltimore being a sight unseen in Week 13 as of this writing. Cleveland opened up in the +2 range as a home 'dog and we are now seeing pick'em prices pop up as everyone only wants to remember what they've seen last and not put in the time or work to take in the bigger picture of the situation.

That's always been the nature of the beast known as the NFL betting market though, but I'll go out on a limb now and suggest that backing Minnesota, Carolina, L.A. Rams, and Baltimore in Week 14 will finish with a winning ATS record.

Having the majority looking the other way in all four contests makes playing on those teams that much more appealing to me.

**Udog** · 12-09-2020, 09:25 AM

Tech Trends - Week 14
Bruce Marshall

Week 14 of the NFL season kicks off on Thanksgiving, and we've identified betting trends and angles for all the matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Dec. 10

NEW ENGLAND at L.A. RAMS
Belichick has covered last four as a dog in 2020, now 18-5 as dog since 2010.
Belichick also “under” 9-4 last 13 since late 2019.
Rams on 7-2 “under” run.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Patriots, based on “totals” and team trends.

Sunday, Dec. 13

TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE
Titans “over” 10-2 in 2020, now “over” 20-5 since Tannehill took over at QB mid 2019.
Jags “over” 14-10-1 last 24 since early 2019.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

DALLAS at CINCINNATI
Into Ravens on Tuesday, Dallas 2-9 vs. line TY, now 1-6 vs. spread last seven away.
Also Cowboys 14-9 “over” since early 2019.
Cincy 4-0-1 vs. line at home TY!

Tech Edge: Bengals and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

ARIZONA at N.Y. GIANTS
G-Men 7-1-1 vs. line last nine TY, also 8-3-1 “under” in 2020.
Cards no covers last five TY but did win and cover at MetLife vs. Jets on Oct. 1.

Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

HOUSTON at CHICAGO
Romeo has won SU 3 of last 5 with Texans TY.
Though Houston just 1-4 vs. line away TY.
Bears 1-5 vs. spread last five TY, 9-23 last 31 since late 2018, and 24-11 “under” since mid 2018 (though “over” last two).

Tech Edge: Texans and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

DENVER at CAROLINA
Panthers 0-2 as chalk TY, no covers last four in role since 2019.
Carolina 2-4 vs. spread at Charlotte TY, 2-7-1 last ten vs. spread as host since mid 2019.
Into KC on Sunday night, Denver actually 7-3 vs. spread last ten away, and Broncos back to trending “under” (3-0 last 3, now 23-12 “under” since mid 2018.

Tech Edge: Broncos and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

MINNESOTA at TAMPA BAY
After covering 6 of 7, Vikes have dropped last three vs. line.
Still, they’ve covered 4 straight on road, and now 9-4 last 13 vs. line as visitor.
Vikes also “over” 8-3-1 TY and 17-5-1 “over” in reg season since early 2019.
Bucs “over” 19-9 since Arians arrived LY.

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Vikings, based on “totals” and team trends.

KANSAS CITY at MIAMI
Dolphins have covered 7 of last 8, 9 of last 11, 18 of last 24 on board, and 13-5 last 18 as dog.
Into Denver game on Sunday night, Andy Reid no covers last three TY, and only 3-3 vs. spread as visitor in 2020.

Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on recent trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at LAS VEGAS
Indy has covered 4 of last 5 away TY, also “over” 3-1 last four and 7-5 in 2020, “over” 10-7 since late LY.
Raiders “over” 8-3-1 TY, “over” 3-1-1 at Allegiant Stadium.
Raiders 9-16-3 vs. line in second halves of season since 2017.

Tech Edge: “Over” and Colts, based on “totals” and team trends.

N.Y. JETS at SEATTLE
Jets have covered 4 of last 6 TY though only 1-4 vs. spread away.
J-Men also 5-3 “under” last 8 TY.
Hawks 4-2 vs. line at newly-named Lumen Field TY (though a few close calls), also “under” last four TY.

Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Seahawks, based on “totals” and team trends.

GREEN BAY at DETROIT
Lions have actually covered last 3 vs. Pack at Ford Field, though Detroit just 2-4 vs. line last six TY, and lost 42-21 at Lambeau on Sept. 20.
Lions “over” 18-10 since LY, Pack on 9-5 “over” run since late 2019.

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Lions, based on “totals” and series trends.

ATLANTA at L.A. CHARGERS
Falcs 4-3 SU and vs. line since Raheem Morris took over for Dan Quinn in October.
Falcs also on 7-2 “under” run.
Bolts no covers last six TY, and 4-13-2 last 19 vs. line since mid 2019.

Tech Edge: Falcons and slight to “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

NEW ORLEANS at PHILADELPHIA
Birds “under” last six TY, Saints “under” last five in 2020.
Saints have also won and covered last five TY, part of 9-0 SU surge.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Saints, based on “totals” and team trends.

WASHINGTON vs. SAN FRANCISCO (at Glendale, Az)
Not sure about home-road designations now for 49ers as they play home games in Glendale.
They were just 1-4 vs. spread at Levi’s.
Into Bills on Monday, SF 4-2 “under” last six TY.
In Pitt on Monday, WFT has won and covered last two in 2020, also “under” 4–1 last seven TY.

Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to WFT, based on “totals” and recent trends.

PITTSBURGH at BUFFALO
Steel 4-1 vs. line away TY, though into SF on Monday, Bills had covered last three in 2020.
Buff 7-3-1 as dog since last season.
Buff also “over” 7-3-1 in 2020.

Tech Edge: Slight to Bills and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Monday, Dec. 14

BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND
Even after win at Tenn, Brownies just 2-5 vs. line last seven TY.
Ravens have covered five of last six at Cleveland, Balt now 7-3 last ten vs. line in series, including wins last two by 24 ppg.

Tech Edge: Ravens, based on series trends.

**Udog** · 12-09-2020, 10:58 AM

NFL Week 14 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey has a chance to return from a shoulder injury that's shelved him since Week 9. But Carolina, laying 3.5 vs. Denver, had some COVID issues spring up Monday.

NFL Week 13 still has a Tuesday night game remaining, but NFL Week 14 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury information, including the possible return of a certain star Carolina Panthers running back. And of course, COVID news.

Week 14 Injuries

Carolina Panthers: Christian McCaffrey suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 2 that kept him out until Week 9 at Kansas City, where he endured a shoulder injury that has kept him out since then. It's possible he returns Sunday at home against Denver. However, the Panthers on Monday put a handful of players on the reserve/COVID list, including wideouts D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel. The Panthers opened -3.5 at The SuperBook, and that line is currently off the board, but if McCaffrey is cleared and the COVID issues clear up, expect to see an upward bump.

Las Vegas Raiders: Positive news is coming from Raiders camp, with standout right tackle Trent Brown activated Monday off the reserve/COVID list. Brown has been out since Week 5. The SuperBook opened Las Vegas as a 3-point home underdog to Indianapolis, and the line moved to Raiders +2.5 Monday. The total ticked up a half-point to 51. The status of running back Josh Jacobs (ankle) is still questionable after he sat out the Week 13 win at the New York Jets.

Week 14 Weather

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers: The early forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of rain Sunday in Charlotte, along with winds of 10-15 mph. This game is currently off the board at The SuperBook, due to the aforementioned Carolina COVID issues.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants: There's a 50/50 chance of showers Sunday at MetLife Stadium, along with winds of 10-15 mph, based on the early forecast. The total of 45 was stable Monday at The SuperBook.

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks: Rain in Seattle is never a surprise, and the early forecast points to a 63 percent chance of showers and winds of 10-15 mph Sunday. But this total actually nudged up a half-point Monday at The SuperBook, from 47 to 47.5.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles: The early forecast predicts a 51 percent chance of rain and winds of 10-20 mph in Philly on Sunday. The SuperBook opened the total at 45 and moved to 45.5, then back to 45 on Monday.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: The Sunday night game could be a little messy. The early forecast calls for a 53 percent chance of rain and potentially snow during the day, then a 30 percent chance of flurries in the evening, along with winds of 10-20 mph. The SuperBook opened the total at 47.5 and held stable Monday.

**Udog** · 12-10-2020, 08:47 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 14

**Udog** · 12-10-2020, 10:05 AM

Patriots vs. Rams Week 14 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Ninety-seven weeks is a long time to stew about anything, but that's precisely how long it's been since Rams HC Sean McVay and his QB Jared Goff were thoroughly flustered by Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 53.

There is no doubt that McVay and Goff have had days in the 680 they've had between Patriots games thinking about what could have been on that February day, but they've got a shot at some kind of redemption this week as they host the Patriots.

Belichick's game plan in that Super Bowl was masterful, and he understands that he probably can't consistently rely on going back to that well in this meeting and expect the same results. Tossing some curveballs to keep young QB's guessing has been the backbone of Belichick and New England's success over the years when facing younger QB's.

But Goff and the Rams have almost had two full NFL seasons under their belt since then, and things are quite different for the Patriots this time around as well.

So in this unique travel spot where the visiting Patriots haven't had to travel at all on a short week – they've stayed in L.A. after beating the Chargers 45-0 on Sunday – the betting markets have already shown their hand in supporting New England against the number.

Not having to travel and off a 45-point win is about as positive as a scenario as it gets for a road team on TNF, so the move from New England opening at +6/6.5 to +4.5/5 currently is hard to ignore.

But should it still be followed? Faded? Or ignored?

Week 14 Matchup: AFC vs. NFC
Venue: SoFi Stadium
Location: Los Angeles, California
Date: Thursday, Dec. 10, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL Network

The Rams look for their fifth home win of the season as they host the Patriots. (AP)

Patriots-Rams Betting Odds

Spread: Los Angeles -5
Money-Line: Rams -240, Patriots +205
Total: 44.5

2020 Betting Stats

New England

Overall: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS, 4-8 O/U
Road: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 22.8 (Rank 23)
Defense PPG: 21.3 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 342.3 (Rank 22)
Defense YPG: 344.6 (Rank 12)

Los Angeles

Overall: 8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS, 4-8 O/U
Home: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 0-5 O/U
Offense PPG: 25.1 (Rank 17)
Defense PPG: 20.3 (Rank 5)
Offense YPG: 395.3 (Rank 3)
Defense YPG: 291.3 (Rank 2)

Handicapping the Total

The interesting thing about the Patriots blowout win over the Chargers on Sunday is the fact that it was really handed to them on a silver platter by the Los Angeles special teams. Fourteen of those 45 points came directly off special teams plays – 70-yard punt return, blocked FG try returned for a TD – well at least one other New England score was set up after a long punt return as well. Chances are that's not going to happen again for New England this week.

But the favorable spot of not having to travel, playing at the same stadium, etc. has to be considered beneficial for the Patriots regardless, and it is something I do think works in the favor of New England offense for this game.

For all of the talented names the Rams have on defense, they've still allowed 25.14 points per game against anyone in the NFL not named Chicago or residing in the NFC East. Only one of those seven foes for the Rams were held below 23 points, and the other two AFC East teams L.A. has faced this year (Buffalo, Miami) both beat LA and put up an average of 31.5 points in doing so.

The counterpoint there is that both those losses to AFC teams came on the road for the Rams, and at home they've been a dead 'under' team, going 0-5 O/U this season with an average total score of 35.8 points per game, and having not one of those contests finish with more than 43 total points; below this current number.

But thanks to the uniqueness of the no travel spot for the Patriots, none of the minute advantages home teams can even enjoy this season – possible quick body clock adjustment to travelling through time zones, sight lines and familiarity with stadium – are not existent either with New England being where they are for the better part of a week now.

That doesn't particularly lend itself to an 'under' look in my opinion, especially when Patriots road games this year have averaged 49.16 points per game in “normal” road situations for New England.

On the flip side, simply from a competitor standpoint, you know that McVay and Goff have to be excited to get another crack at Belichick and his defense. In various media sessions since that Super Bowl loss, McVay has discussed the fact that he was severely outcoached that day.

It likely hasn't been an every day, or every week thing in the 97 weeks that have passed between meetings, you can't convince me that McVay hasn't spent ample time in that span coming up with theories and ideas on what will work against Belichick in the next go around.

The good news for McVay and the Rams there is basically two-fold. One, it can't really go much worse than the three points they put up in the Super Bowl, but more importantly, the 2020 version of the New England Patriots defense is nowhere near as good as the 2018 version was.

Belichick may already have concepts he knows will work against McVay and the Rams tendencies, but when he doesn't have the talent that he used to in executing those concepts, things can go sideways in a hurry.

McVay has long been praised for his offensive acumen in this league, and the fact that he runs so many different plays and looks from the same base formation sets can be very problematic for opposing defenses as well. He doesn't have to worry about giving touches to a banged up RB like Todd Gurley was in that Super Bowl, and the Rams also don't have to worry about CB Stephon Gilmore locking down things in the passing game after his INT in that Super Bowl was a huge game changer. All are pluses for this Rams offense putting up points too.

Finally, I can't ignore the market read either on this total, as there has been plenty of 'under' support as well for this game. Yet, even with the betting percentages at VegasInsider.com currently showing 75%+ support for the low side of this total, it's barely budged since opening. That's always telling regardless of the specific scenarios for a given game, and if the Patriots bettors believe this is such an advantageous spot for New England sans travel, correlating with the 'under' is a hard concept for me to agree with.

Yes, the Super Bowl tape speaks plenty about Belichick's understanding of how to slow down a McVay-led offense, but can you trust New England's defense to execute at similar level despite not nearly being as good?

Or can you trust New England's offense not to put up 25+ themselves in such an advantageous travel spot? I've got a tough time answering “yes” to either of those questions, especially with how many points this Rams defense has allowed on a weekly basis against average or better teams.

Throw in the idea that McVay's made no secret about how he's kept himself up at night at various times through these past 97 weeks thinking about what he could have done differently in that Super Bowl against New England, and it's taking the high side of this total that makes the most sense.

Head-to-Head History

Feb. 3, 2019 - New England 13 vs. L.A. Rams 3, Patriots -2, Under 55.5
Dec. 4, 2016 - New England 26 vs. L.A. Rams 10, Patriots -13, Under 44.5
Oct. 28, 2012 - New England 45 at L.A. Rams 7, Patriots -7.5, Over 46

Handicapping the Side

The uniqueness of a no travel TNF game on the road for New England was enough off the bat for me to not look to get heavily involved in either side no matter what other supporting evidence popped up.

Earlier in the week I discussed how good it's been fading teams off a 40+ point outburst, which would make the Rams the play here, but I do believe you've got to respect that early move towards the Patriots as well.

As someone who does prefer to have some historical concept information to rely on for any play, this no travel road game on a short week is something that's put a monkey wrench into any strong thoughts on the side either way.

New England needs every SU victory they can get right now to have any shot at hanging around in the AFC playoff race, while the Rams are fighting tooth and nail for a NFC West crown.

And for as much as I may or may not believe McVay has obsessed over getting another crack at Belichick after Super Bowl 53, he'll be just as content after this game with a four-point win as he would with one by seven or more.

If the spread climbs back up to +6 or higher range (highly unlikely), I'd probably grab those points with New England if forced to make a choice, simply because if the thought process is McVay's spent nights dreaming up schemes that will work against Belichick, the Patriots' coach been around long enough to get to feasible counters quick enough to at least keep this game tight.

But this game landing right around the range of where it opened and where it currently sits would not be surprising at all, and why force that kind of sweat on yourself. Teasing New England up and through +7 and +10 makes quite a bit of sense too for those that have other teaser legs in mind this week.

Key Injuries

New England

QB Cam Newton: Abdominal - Questionable
WR Matthew Slater: Knee - Questionable
G Shaq Mason: Calf - Questionable
CB Jonathan Jones: Neck - Questionable
RB J.J. Taylor: Quadricep - Questionable
FB Jakob Johnson: Knee - Questionable
LB Ja’Whaun Bentley: Groin - Questionable
DL Adam Butler Shoulder - Questionable
DL Byron Cowart Back - Questionable
DB Kyle Dugger Toe - Questionable
K Nick Folk Back - Questionable
DL Lawrence Guy Shoulder - Questionable
TE Ryan Izzo Various - Questionable
CB J.C. Jackson Hip, Knee - Questionable

Los Angeles

K Matt Gay: Shoulder - Questionable
RB Cam Akers: Shoulder - Probable
DL Michael Brockers: Neck - Probable

2020 Thursday Night Football (TNF) Betting Results

Home-Away: 5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS
Over-Under: 5-5

**Udog** · 12-13-2020, 08:24 AM

151GREEN BAY -152 DETROIT
DETROIT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game in the last 2 seasons.

153TENNESSEE -154 JACKSONVILLE
TENNESSEE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points since 1992.

155DALLAS -156 CINCINNATI
DALLAS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games in the current season.

157ARIZONA -158 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 47-24 ATS (20.6 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992.

159HOUSTON -160 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP) over the last 2 seasons.

161DENVER -162 CAROLINA
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after a loss by 3 or less points in the last 3 seasons.

163MINNESOTA -164 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games in the last 3 seasons.

165KANSAS CITY -166 MIAMI
MIAMI is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

167INDIANAPOLIS -168 LAS VEGAS
LAS VEGAS are 0-12 ATS (-13.2 Units) in home games after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992.

169NY JETS -170 SEATTLE
NY JETS are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

**Udog** · 12-13-2020, 08:28 AM

Gridiron Angles - Week 14
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: N.Y. Jets at Seattle

-- The Seahawks are 10-0 ATS (7.75 ppg) since Jan 22, 2006 at home coming off a home game where they committed at least two turnovers.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Denver at Carolina

-- The Panthers are 0-13 ATS (-12.19 ppg) since Oct 10, 2016 as a favorite against a team under .400 on the season.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Minnesota at Tampa Bay

-- Teams are 0-9 OU (-11.33 ppg) since Dec 13, 2015 coming off a loss where Tom Brady threw at least 40 passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Indianapolis at Las Vegas

-- The Raiders are 15-0-1 OU (11.50 ppg) since Dec 12, 2010 coming off a road game where they gained at least 22 first downs

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Minnesota at Tampa Bay

-- The Vikings are 0-10 OU (-11.80 ppg) since Jan 03, 2016 as a dog coming off a win where they forced at least two turnovers.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Houston at Chicago

-- The Bears are 0-17-1 ATS (-9.42 ppg) since Jan 23, 2011 as a dog coming off a home game that went over the total.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (Thur., Dec. 10 - Monday, Dec. 14)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (Thur., Dec. 10 - Monday, Dec. 14)

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