NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Thur., Nov. 26 - Monday, Nov. 30)

[Udog]

Ravens at Steelers moved to Tuesday, December 1

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 12
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Tennessee at Indianapolis

-- The Colts are 10-0 ATS (9.90 ppg) since Nov 29, 2015 as a favorite facing a team scoring at least 23 points per game.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Las Vegas at Atlanta

-- The Falcons are 0-11-1 ATS (-10.71 ppg) since Dec 02, 2001 as a home dog coming off a game where they gained no more than 15 first downs.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: San Francisco at L.A. Rams

-- The Rams are 9-0 ATS (7.44 ppg) since Oct 27, 2019 coming off a game where Jared Goff threw at least 35 passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati

-- The Giants are 11-0 OU (10.36 ppg) since Dec 05, 2004 off a game as a home dog where they allowed at least 145 rushing yards.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Las Vegas at Atlanta

-- The Falcons are 0-10-1 OU (-8.32 ppg) since Oct 09, 2011 as a dog coming off a road game where they failed to cover.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati

-- The Bengals are 10-0 ATS (7.95 ppg) since Dec 28, 2008 off a game as a dog that went under the total by at least 14 points.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Udog]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 12
Micah Roberts

Washington bails out Books

Sunday’s Week 12 NFL action appeared to be getting heavier from 12 to 13 games because of a COVID-19 outbreak in Baltimore which left only two Thursday games, but both were heavily bet as usual on Thanksgiving.

Fortunately for the sportsbooks, they were given one beak with the results to help avoid an awful day.

“The Washington Football Team was a big help as the favorite and over combo of Texans to Over and Cowboys to over was the worst case,” said Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick. “College basketball handle was incredible out of the box with mixed results.”

Winning three out of four NFL sides and totals can actually show a profit for a popular locals chain of books like Stations because the most popular four-team parlay lost as well as the late two-team parlay.

It’s always a temporary win, though, because the Thanksgiving leftovers are waiting to cash with a few teams on Sunday that will payout 6-to-1, 10-to-1, and higher.

Public fading NFC South Underdogs

The top candidate expected to be on the most parlay’s waiting to cash is the Las Vegas Raiders who are three-point road favorites at Atlanta.

It’s the top public play at Stations, the SuperBook, South Point, and Atlantis Reno. The Raiders went toe-to-toe with a good fight against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs in a 34-31 loss, but covered the number for their fourth straight cover to make it 7-3 ATS this season (tied for second-best) and also go 7-2-1 to the over.

The Falcons sit at 3-7 on the season and are coming off a bad 24-9 loss to the Saints in Week 11 and are 1-4 at home in five games.

The next most popular public play is the Kansas City Chiefs, who have gone from -3 to -3.5 at Tampa Bay who comes off a tough Monday night loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams.

The total has risen from 53 to 56. It’s as if everyone spending $20 to $100 for Week 12 have turned their back on quarterback Tom Brady and the Bucs. And the 9-1 Chiefs aren’t covering at the same rate as last season, but they rarely have bad games. Plus, they’re 5-0 on the road and can be trusted at a short price.

Understanding Pro's vs. Joe's Action

But the collective public betting logic is kind of why I write this piece each week. It’s nice to see what the sharps like, and I’ll let you know who they do shortly, but the public weight is more important for me to know before I bet.

The public opinion is how all these beautiful sportsbooks are being built and why every chain in the world wants a piece of America’s new stance on legal sports betting.

To give an example of how good the average Joe is for business, let’s look at the top-4 public plays from last week:

Dolphins (-4 at Denver)
Chiefs (-7.5 at Las Vegas)
Patriots (-2.5 at Houston)
Packers (+1.5 at Indianapolis)

They also liked the Steelers (-10.5 at Jacksonville) who won and covered, but the other four were losses that helped the books have a great Sunday.

Visiting Risk

Back to week 12 public risk which also has the Dolphins (-6.5 at NY Jets), the Giants (-6 at Cincinnati), and Saints (-6 at Denver).

AFC East Value?

The Dolphins had their five-game win streak snapped at Denver with rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa getting benched in the fourth quarter of a winnable game for back-up Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The Jets played hard again behind Joe Flacco at the Chargers to give Flacco covers in his last two starts. But the Jets are still 0-10, which can be a negative in the minds of the public. QB Sam Darnold expected to get the nod for the Jets this week.

Broncos are home 'dogs -- again

The Broncos found their running game last week against the Dolphins and the defense played great to help the win. “Less (Drew) Lock, more (Phillip) Lindsay,” has been the battle cry for most Denver fans lately.

The Saints have won seven straight and covered three straight and the public got the nod last week that QB Taysom Hill is a suitable replacement for Drew Brees.

Handicapping the Bengals

I had an interesting conversation with a respected bettor early in the week about the Giants-Bengals game. It went something like this:

MR: “The Bengals are going to be awful without QB Joe Burrow; he kept them in games, chewed up the clock with an effective short passing game which helped the Bengals cover six of nine games before getting hurt.”

RB: “So you like the Giants to roll then, right? No real home-field edge with Cincy and QB Brandon Allen is starting for Burrow. I think Allen started three times for the Broncos last season.”

MR: “Are you kidding? How can you lay points with the Giants? This is a team that’s been favored once all season, laying two points at home against Washington and they couldn’t even cover in a 20-19 win. They’ve covered seven of 10, but only when catching points. I don’t want any part of either team.”

The Giants have covered four straight and have won two straight as they try to keep up with NFC East-leading Washington’s four wins. Wynn Sportsbook director Doug Castaneda says the Giants are their biggest liability of the week so far.

Sharp Action

The most popular sharp bets this week have been the San Francisco 49ers (+7.5 & +7) and the Philadelphia Eagles (+6) on Monday Night Football.

The Rams come off two huge wins in beating Seattle and Tampa Bay while the 49ers have looked horrible in losing their last three (0-3 ATS), so naturally, the wise guys expect a Rams letdown and for NFL players on the banged-up 49ers to be NFL quality and play well. This is why the SuperBook is sitting Rams -6.5.

The Eagles are trying to keep pace in the NFC East and with a home win Monday night they can remain in first-place. The Seahawks are well rested after a huge win over Arizona last Thursday while the Eagles have lost two straight, albeit on the road. At home, the Eagles are 2-2-1. At all locations, the Eagles have turned the ball over 20 times.

The Golden Nugget sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas already knows who they need the most and the risk is only going to get larger because it’s the toxic Sunday night game where books often find themselves in an all-way loss after all the Sunday games have been posted and heavy parlay and teaser risk carries to all sides of the late game.

“We get blasted if the Packers cover Sunday night as of right now," said Nugget book director Tony Miller. “We’re a Packer house and have always been.”

QB Mitch Trubisky is expected to start for the Bears at Green Bay Sunday night with the Packers being 9.5-point favorites and a total set at 44.5.

Understand House Rules

The big news of the week was COVID-19 swirling in the Ravens weight-lifting room at their complex which forced a move from Thursday night to Sunday afternoon for their game at Pittsburgh. QB Lamar Jackson was one of those players testing positive and they already had RBs Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins listed as out for Thursday’s game. There still is a possibility of the game being moved to Tuesday.

But the main thing I saw throughout the week was how different all the house rules are regarding date changes.

Some books like Station Casinos have the longstanding rules of must play on its scheduled date and location for action. They have not reposted the Sunday game odds for fear of the game being moved to Tuesday. Saves for the customer aggravation when bets are refunded when not knowing the rules.

But other books have different rules like the SuperBook that stipulates a game must be played before August 2021 for action. They’re giving themselves lots of wiggle room after hearing some blowback on future bets refunded when having date changes such as the Masters or French Open.

Wynn’s rule states the original location must be the site played at but the game must be played within seven days of the originally scheduled date.

BetMGM has the same 7-day rule and already has a huge risk on the Steelers. It’s their biggest risk of the week so far.

Here’s a quick recap on the sharp/public divide for the upcoming games.

As always, good luck!

Week 12 - Public vs. Sharp Leans

Public:

Raiders
Chiefs
Giants
Dolphins
Saints

Sharp:

49ers
Eagles
Panthers
Jets
Falcons
Raiders
Patriots

[Udog]

[Udog]

All 4 Denver QB's are out. Starting WR Kendall Hinton at QB.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

New England 20, Cardinals 17
— Cardinals tied game on an 80-yard drive, with 8:02 left.
— Arizona was stuffed on 1-yard line trying to score TD on last play of first half.
— Total yardage in game: Arizona 298, New England 179.
— Cardinals’ longest play of day was only 19 yards.

— New England won three of its last four games.
— Folk kicked a 55-yard FG at the gun for the win.
— Newton was 9-18/94 passing, ran for 46 more yards.
— New England trailed at halftime in seven of its last eight games.

Minnesota 28, Panthers 27
— Rookie LB Jeremy China scored defensive TD’s 0:10 apart in 3rd quarter, first time since 1948 a player scored two defensive TD’s in same game.
— Carolina lost six of its last seven games; they missed a 54-yard FG wide left on last play.
— Panthers’ last three road losses were by a combined six points.
— Carolina is 0-8 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.

— Vikings won four of five games since their bye week.
— Minnesota trailed 21-10 after third quarter.
— Three drives in 4th quarter: Vikings ran 30 plays for 222 yards, scored 18 points.
— Beebe caught game-winning 10-yard TD pass with 0:46 left.

Browns 27, Jacksonville 25
— Browns scored 6-7-6 points in their losses, averaged 30.8 ppg in wins
— Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite.
— Chubb ran for 144 yards and a TD; Mayfield threw for 258 yards.
— Right now, Browns would be #5 seed in AFC.

— Jacksonville scored TD with 2:14 left to make it 27-25, but failed on 2-point play.
— Glennon was 20-35/235 passing in his first start since 2017.
— Jaguars lost last ten games (3-7 ATS) overall.
— Total yardage: Browns 459, Jaguars 375

Titans 45, Indianapolis 26
— Tennessee had ball six times in first half, scored five TD’s, led 35-14.
— Henry ran for 178 yards, 6.6 yards/carry.
— Over is 7-2-1 in Titans’ last ten games.
— Titans are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.

— Colts are 6-0 when they score 28+ points. 1-4 when they do not.
— Indy lost field position by 16 yards, ran ball for only 56 yards.
— Tennessee won its third straight visit to Indianapolis.
— Six of their last seven games went over the total.

Atlanta 46, Raiders 3
— Falcons won four of last six games, after an 0-5 start.
— Atlanta wasn’t great on offense, kicking five FG’s, with only three TD’s.
— Falcon opponents converted only 22 of last 69 third down plays.

—Las Vegas turned ball over five times, had 11 penalties for 141 yards.
— Raiders are 2-4-1 ATS in last seven games as road favorites.
— Raiders went 3/out on 7 of their 13 drives.

NJ Giants 19, Cincinnati 17
— Giants won their last three games, sit atop NFC East.
— Six of Giants’ last seven games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
— Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games.
— This was Giants’ first win in seven visits to Cincinnati.

— Cincinnati scored with 2:33 left for the backdoor cover.
— Wilson ran a kick back 103 yards for the Bengals’ first TD.
— Bengals lost last three games by a combined 75-34.
— Cincy is 4-0-1 ATS at home this year.

Buffalo 27, LA Chargers 17
— Chargers lost eight of their last ten games.
— Bolts are 1-5 SU on road, losing by 7-3-1-8-10 points.
— Chargers are 2-5-2 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.
— In their last eight games, Chargers gave up 30.3 ppg.

— Buffalo won four of its last five games, scoring 28.6 ppg.
— Bills ran ball for 172 yards, averaging 5.7 yards/carry.
— Buffalo ran 58 plays, only nine of them on 3rd down.
— Bills maintain a one-game lead over Miami in AFC East.

Dolphins 20, NJ Jets 3
— Dolphins won/covered six of their last seven games.
— Miami allowed 17 or fewer points in five of seven wins; 21-31-31-20 in losses.
— Miami won four of six road games, losing 21-11 in Foxboro, 20-13 in Denver.
— Fitzpatrick regained starting job, threw for 257 yards, two TD’s.

— Winless Jets are 3-8 ATS, losing home games by 8-9-20-8-3-17 points.
— Jets have been outscored 66-29 in 2nd half of their last six games.
— Gang Green was outscored 44-3 in two games vs Miami this year.
— Jets in second half: 6 drives, 21 plays, 60 yards, no points.

Saints 31, Denver 3
— Denver’s QB’s didn’t follow COVID protocol; the league sent Denver (and the rest of the NFL) a message and made them play a game with no quarterback.
— Practice squad WR Kendall Hinton played QB at Wake Forest for a while; they threw him to the wolves here- it didn’t go well.

— New Orleans won its last eight games, covered last four.
— Saints are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite.

Not much else to say about this game, the league made it clear that teams need to follow the COVID rules.

49ers 23, LA Rams 20
— 49ers kicked 42-yard FG at the gun for the win.
— WR Samuel caught 11 passes for 133 yards, both career highs.
— 49ers are 14-10 ATS in last 24 games as a road underdog.
— SF won the last four games in this divisional rivalry.

— Rams turned ball over four times on their first eight drives.
— LA has outscored opponents 133-61 in second half of games.
— Seven of LA’s last eight games stayed under the total.
— Rookie RB Henry ran ball for 84 yards on only nine carries.

Chiefs 27, Tampa Bay 24
— Mahomes threw for 462 yards, three TD’s.
— Tyreek Hill had seven catches for 203 yards and two TD’s, just in first quarter
— Chiefs won their last six games, last three by total of nine points.
— Kansas City won all six road games this year.

— Tampa Bay is 7-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it scores less.
— Last five games, Bucs were outscored 99-46 in first half.
— Tampa Bay split its six home games this season.
— Brady threw for 345 yards, three TD’s in a losing cause.

Green Bay 41, Bears 25:
— Bears lost their last five games, after a 5-1 start.
— Chicago scored only 17.6 ppg in last five games.
— Bears are 9-16-1 ATS in last 26 games as road underdog.
— NBC’s Tony Dungy accused Chicago of “giving up” late in 3rd quarter.

— Green Bay’s first three drives: 36 plays, 230 yards, 20 points.
— Packers are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
— Packers converted 6-11 third down plays.
— Green Bay won 18 of last 21 series games.

Richmond 76, Kentucky 64
— Veteran Spider squad forced 21 turnovers (+11).
— Richmond starts four seniors, Kentucky starts four freshmen.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 12
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

49ers (+5.5, ML +195) at Rams, 23-20
Falcons (+3.5, ML +155) vs. Raiders, 43-6
Titans (+3, ML +125) at Colts, 45-26
Washington (+2.5, ML +125) at Cowboys (Thu.), 41-16

The largest favorites to cover

Saints (-17) at Broncos, 31-3
Packers (-8) vs. Bears, 41-25
Dolphins (-7.5) at Jets, 20-3
Bills (-4) vs. Chargers, 27-17

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Kansas City Chiefs-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game was a bummer if you bet the favorite. The Chiefs (-3.5) fired out to a 17-0 lead after 15 minutes, as QB Patrick Mahomes and WR Tyreke Hill combined for over 200 yards -- in the first quarter. Things settled down a bit in the second quarter, as the Buccaneers scored the only touchdown in the quarter to slice the K.C. lead to 20-7 at the break.

In the third quarter, the Chiefs flipped the script, and the Chiefs were leading 27-10. The Chiefs were looking unstoppable, and Mahomes and the pass offense was flirting with 500 before the end of the game. However, the Bucs certainly gave the Chiefs a scare late, showing absolutely no quit.

In the final 15 minutes, the Buccaneers outscored the Chiefs 14-0, and the Chiefs ended up with a 27-24 win, and the Bucs ended up picking up the backdoor cover. The way this one started out, that never looked possible.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The game between the Carolina Panthers-Minnesota Vikings was a bummer on both sides. If you had Carolina on the moneyline (+125), it was a tough pill to swallow. If you had Under (50), it was equally disappointing.

The Panthers picked up a pair fumble recoveries and touchdowns, both by CB Jeremy Chinn, as the Panthers took a 21-10 lead into the final quarter. Under bettors still looked to be in good shape, however.

The two teams exchanged field goals, but the score was 24-13 with just under six minutes to go before the Vikings struck for a touchdown and two-point conversion to cut the lead to 24-21 with 5:31 left in regulation. PK Joey Slye booted a field goal from 21 yards out to push their lead to six with 1:51 to play.

Under bettors were still OK, as were Panthers ML bettors, until QB Kirk Cousins led the team down the field and hit WR Chad Beebe for a 10-yard touchdown with :46 left, giving the Vikings a lead. Carolina ML bettors still had a shot, but a field goal at the horn went well wide to the left.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the New Orleans Saints-Denver Broncos (36.5), and that total was reminiscent of the 1980's and 1990's when we would routinely see totals in the 30's. Now, it's an extreme rarity.

The Broncos had their top three quarterbacks on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, so they recalled WR Kendall Hinton from the practice squad. The converted wide receiver played quarterback at Wake Forest, and he was summoned to make his first NFL start. It ended how you would imagine. He completed just one of his nine pass attempts, and was brutal. But it was an extremely unfair situation for him to be put into.

The Saints moved to 2-0 with QB Taysom Hill under center, as he ran for two more touchdowns to win it 31-3, covering a 17-point number on the road, too.

The highest total on Sunday was the Chiefs-Buccaneers game (56.5), but the over was never really threatened, as it took late heroics by the Bucs just to get it to a total of 51 points.

In the one primetime game, the Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers (44), the game easily went over, and the Pack nearly took care of it all by themselves. We still have Monday's Seattle Seahawks-Philadelphia Eagles (49) game, and Tuesday's Baltimore Ravens-Pittsburgh Steelers (41.5) still left to be played this week, both in primetime.

So far this season the under is 22-14 (61.1%) across 36 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 13

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Saints and Falcons square off for the second time in three weeks. New Orleans picked up a 24-9 win in Week 11 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in NOLA, covering a 3.5-point number as the 'under' (49.5) was never in doubt. Hill made his first start in place of the injured QB Drew Brees (ribs) in that one, and he proved all of the doubters wrong. The Saints are on a eight-game winning streak, and they have covered four in a row with four straight 'under' results. For the Falcons, they routed the Raiders 43-6 on Sunday, and they're 3-1 SU/ATS over the past four, with just that loss to the Falcons in the L column. The 'under' is 4-1 across the past five for ATL, too.

As far as trends, the Saints are 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to Atlanta, and 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings overall. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four in this series, and 8-3 in the past 11 meetings overall.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Colts were shellacked at home by the Titans, 45-26, as the 'over' (51.5) easily connected. Meanwhile, the Texans registered a 41-25 win in the early game on Thanksgiving, covering a three-point number on the road as the 'over' (52.5) cashed.

Houston has won back-to-back games for the first time this season, and they have covered a season-high three in a row after a 1-6 ATS start to the season. Indy has won each of its past two road trips, a 34-17 win in Tennessee on Nov. 12, and a 41-21 win at Detroit on Nov. 1 in Week 8. The 'over' is 3-0 in the past three for Indy, and 6-1 across the past seven for the Colts.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The Rams are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 23-20 loss at home to the 49ers in Week 12. The 'under' (44.5) held on for L.A. The 'under' (50.5) also cashed in a disappointing 20-17 loss for the Cardinals in New England, so both teams should enter this one in a rather foul mood.

L.A. is 9-1 ATS across the past 10 games following a non-cover, and 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight following a straight-up loss. They're also 11-5 ATS in the past 16 on the road. For Arizona, they're 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven as an underdog, while going 3-1-1 ATS in the past five inside the division. However, they have failed to cover the past four, and they're 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight following a straight-up loss.

In this series, the road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings, and the favorite is 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven. The Rams have also covered five straight trips to Arizona, and they're 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings in the series. The 'under' is 11-5 in the past 16 meetings in Arizona.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Broncos will hit the road for Sunday Night Football after hitting rock-bottom on Sunday. It was a rough situation for the Broncos to be in, forcing to start a practice-squad receiver at quarterback after losing their top three signal callers. They're expected to have at least one quarterback ready for next week, although it's uncertain who.

The Chiefs will have Mahomes, and that's why they're at two-touchdown favorite to open. The Chiefs are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six against losing teams, and 9-2-1 ATS in the past 12 at home. They're also 14-5-1 ATS in the past 20 overall, although, as mentioned above, they just missing a cover in Tampa last week. In this series, the Broncos are 1-9 ATS in the past 10 meetings, and the 'over' is 3-1-1 in the past five battles at Arrowhead in this series.

[Udog]

Seahawks vs. Eagles Week 12 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Well, here we are again, capping off another week with Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles in a prime time spot, and for the first time in weeks are looking up at a rival in the NFC East standings as well. The criticism of his play gets louder and grows in reach with each passing week, as even the biggest apologists for him are running out of other things to point to.

I'll never be accused of being in that group, but with so much anti-Eagles sentiment in the marketplace now because of Wentz's poor play, it puts the Eagles at least in a betting spot where I've got to at least consider them.

I've long said I want no part of the Eagles as a favorite, but as a home underdog on MNF against a darling team in the market like Seattle, it can be hard to trust pulling the trigger on the Seahawks when you know most of the known world is as well. That's not something I prefer to do too often, but you'd also be lucky to get more than five words out trying to convince me to go against Wentz before I agreed with you.

So it's another week where there have been a few headaches trying to figure out a creative way to present another Wentz/Eagles breakdown, and I've resigned myself to the idea that SNF in Week 17 will have the flex spot used on Philadelphia vs one of their NFC East rivals for the division crown.

Remember this piece if/when that does happen in a few weeks, but until then let's see if we can find enough confidence in some angles to cash a winner here.

Betting Resources

Week 12 Matchup: NFC
Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Date: Monday, Nov. 30, 2020
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Seattle looks to defeat Philadelphia for a seventh straight time on Monday night. (AP)

Seahawks-Eagles Betting Odds

Spread: Seattle -5.5
Money-Line: Seattle -240, Philadelphia +200
Total: 50

2020 Betting Stats

Seattle

Overall: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 O/U
Road: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 31.8 (Rank 2)
Defense PPG: 28.7 (Rank 28)
Offense YPG: 400.0 (Rank 5)
Defense YPG: 434.9 (Rank 32)

Philadelphia

Overall: 3-6-1 SU, 3-7 ATS, 4-6 O/U
Home: 2-2-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 22.0 (Rank 24)
Defense PPG: 25.4 (Rank 16)
Offense YPG: 330.1 (Rank 26)
Defense YPG: 342.7 (Rank 10)

Handicapping the Total

I haven't been the kindest to the Seahawks either in past prime time pieces as I always figured it would be their defense that would hold them back, and that's starting to get much more noticed as well in the past few weeks. When Russell Wilson is just “average” or worse out there, this Seahawks team can look quite bad at times.

But the defense has tightened it up some in recent weeks in allowing 23 and 21 points to two division rivals, and this game against the Eagles starts a stretch for Seattle where they play at Philadelphia, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, and at Washington. If you want to give a team the best chance to flip some bad defensive numbers around, you give them a stretch in their schedule like that don't you?

That's definitely what the majority of the market appears to believe as this total opened at 52 and has dropped thanks to plenty of support. Having a defense (like Seattle's) that appears to be trending in the right direction up against a QB that's only been ragged on for weeks (and rightfully so overall) is fertile soil for 'under' support to grow, combined with plenty of Seahawks SU and ATS love behind it.

But the problem is, I'm not sure Seattle's defense is even good enough to completely flip what we've seen from them around. Division games are always ones where there are very few secrets on both sides so defenses can look much better than they really are, and an 'under' play also means you've got to dodge the Superman version of Wilson in all likelihood as well.

That's been a lot tougher to do this year then anyone would have thought, but after two of his “rougher” games in terms of piling up big numbers on the stat sheet, Wilson may be in store for one of those put the team on his back performances. Philly's allowed at least 20 points in every game but one – the Ben Dinucci Dallas game – meaning this is a great opportunity for Wilson and Seattle's offense to get right again as well in putting up 30+ each week.

Seattle's defense has allowed at least 21 points in every single one of their games this year, and staying focused enough late in a blowout win for themselves, might leave the backdoor open long enough for an 'over' to connect here.

Wentz is capable enough to move the ball against this Seattle defense, and even though the last time I trusted him to connect on an 'over' play, the game fell 1.5 points short with two failed Philadelphia 2PT conversions and a Wentz INT in the end zone.

At least this time any 'over' look has Wilson sharing the field with Wentz and not Daniel Jones, so trusting the 'over' makes quite a bit of sense here. Throw in the added sentiment of each of the last five meetings between these two franchises easily cashing 'under' tickets (no more than 41 points scored in those five games) being a repeated talking point this week, and I'm not sure all the 'under' sentiment will be the correct move at the end of the night.

Can only look to the 'over' now.

Head-to-Head History

Jan. 5, 2020 - Seattle 17 at Philadelphia 9, Seahawks +1, Under 44
Nov. 24, 2019 - Seattle 17 at Philadelphia 9, Seahawks -1, Under 45.5
Dec. 3, 2017 - Seattle 24 vs. Philadelphia 10, Seahawks +3.5, Under 46.5

Handicapping the Side

Defaulting to a play on the total (in whatever direction) may be the way to save dealing with some stress and anxiety in this game, as on the field, everything suggests Seattle should win this game easily. But a home underdog nobody wants is a spot where you can at least expect them to attempt to put up a fight to help the house out a bit. It's been nothing but Seattle money and rightfully so.

The best of the Seattle number that opened at -3 has long been gone though, and it would be in typical NFL fashion to have something peculiar happen and see the Seahawks win this game by four.

Following a heavy majority like this for the final game of a week is not a practice you typically want to make a habit, but it's hard to give any other argument legitimacy in this specific matchup either.

Backing Wentz and the Eagles in their prime time win over the 49ers earlier in the year was a time where Wentz's play did plenty for me, but outside of Philly being in a nice contrarian spot, I still want no part of them here.

The Eagles defense is the perfect candidate to have Wilson put on his superhero cape again, and expecting the Seahawks to win by at least a TD is a highly probably outcome.

In the end you've probably got to side with what's on the field in this particular case, but maybe waiting for the Seahawks to get down early – a bad start for a shaky defense perhaps – and jump in on live action at a time when something like -3 or better is available again.

That would be how I'd be looking to attack the side, but if the heavy lean in both side and total breakdowns is that I expect Wilson to perform on the better side of his spectrum, I'd prefer to take my chances with the total play.

Key Injuries

Seattle

CB Shaquill Griffin: Concussion - Probable
RB Chris Carson: Foot - Probable
WR David Moore: Undisclosed - Questionable
T Brandon Shell: Ankle - Questionable
C Kyle Fuller: Ankle - Questionable
RB Travis Homer: Knee - Questionable
G Jordan Simmons: Calf - Questionable
CB Neiko Thorpe: Groin - Questionable
C Ethan Pocic: Concussion - Questionable
WR Stephen Sullivan: Undisclosed - Out
TE Greg Olsen: Foot - Out
RB Bo Scarbrough: Hamstring - Out

Philadelphia

C Jason Kelce: Elbow - Probable
T Jason Peters: Undisclosed - Questionable
DE Derek Barnett: Knee - Questionable
RB Jordan Howard: Acquired - Questionable
S Rudy Ford: Hamstring - Questionable
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside: COVID-19 - Questionable
TE Zach Ertz: Ankle - Doubtful
T Lane Johnson: Ankle - Out
CB Cre'von LeBlanc: Ankle - Out

2020 Monday Night Football (MNF) Betting Results

Home-Away: 4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS
Over-Under: 5-6

[Udog]

NFL odds Week 13: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Movement
Patrick Everson

The Rams' Aaron Donald and the Cardinals' Kyler Murray will get reacquainted in a Week 13 matchup that has both teams needing a win. The SuperBook opened Los Angeles a 2.5-point road favorite.

NFL Week 12 still has two matchups left, on Monday night and Tuesday night, but NFL Week 13 odds stop for no one and are already getting some action. Among the noteworthy matchups: an AFC clash between the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans, and an NFC West battle pitting the Los Angeles Rams against the Arizona Cardinals.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 13 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

Teams on bye: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers

Cowboys at Ravens Odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF

Why the line moved
This game was supposed to be the Week 13 Thursday nighter, but the Ravens-Steelers Week 12 game – originally set for Thanksgiving night – won't be played until Tuesday, due to Baltimore's COVID issues. So Week 13 will have two Monday games, the Cowboys-Ravens at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the regularly scheduled Bills-49ers contest.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson's Week 13 status is uncertain due to his positive COVID test, so The SuperBook is not posting this game until there's more clarity.


Lions at Bears Odds
Opening line
Bears -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Lions tumbled to Houston 41-25 at home on Thanksgiving and on Saturday fired coach Matt Patricia. On Sunday night, the Bears got thumped at Green Bay 41-25. The SuperBook opened Lions-Bears at Chicago -3 and quickly scooted to -3.5 early Sunday evening. Per standard operating procedure, the game then came off the board once the Bears-Packers Sunday night meeting began, and the line will go back up Monday morning.


Bengals at Dolphins Odds
Opening line
Dolphins -11.5, Over/Under 43

Why the line moved
Miami had no issues with the still-winless New York Jets, winning 20-3 on the road Sunday, while Cincinnati was respectable, minus Joe Burrow, in a 19-17 home loss to the New York Giants. Still, the Dolphins are not the Giants, and as such, The SuperBook opened Miami -11.5. There was no line movement through Sunday night.


Colts at Texans Odds
Opening line
Texans +2.5, Over/Under 55

Why the line moved
Indianapolis took a beating at the hands of Tennessee in Week 12, losing 45-26 at home Sunday. Meanwhile, Houston is coming off a mini-bye after bouncing host Detroit 41-25 on Thanksgiving.

"We opened Colts -2.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The Colts' defense got torched in the first half today. We're going to keep a close eye on the Colts' injury report. They were missing some key guys on defense today, and it showed."


Jaguars at Vikings Odds
Opening line
Vikings -9.5, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
Minnesota's offense had turnovers on consecutive plays Sunday, and both were returned for touchdowns, yet the Vikings still managed a 28-27 victory over visiting Carolina, winning on a last-minute touchdown. Jacksonville kept it interesting as a touchdown underdog to Cleveland, losing 27-25 at home. The SuperBook opened the Vikes -9.5, and there was no line movement Sunday night.


Washington at Steelers Odds
Opening line
Steelers -10, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh still has Week 12 work to do, and in fact can't do that work until Tuesday in the multi-delayed matchup against Baltimore. Washington will be much more rested, coming off a stunning 41-16 road wipeout of Dallas on Thanksgiving. The SuperBook opened the Steelers -10, and there was no line movement Sunday night.


Raiders at Jets Odds
Opening line
Jets +8.5, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved
Las Vegas laid a fat Week 12 egg in Atlanta, getting boat raced 43-6, but winless New York (0-11 SU) could be the cure. The hapless Jets fell to Miami 20-3. However, it appears early bettors were much less impressed by the Raiders' awful showing, as this line is already down a point to -7.5 Sunday night.


Saints at Falcons Odds
Opening line
Falcons +3, Over/Under 47.5

Why the line moved
New Orleans is 2-0 in the Taysom Hill era, with at least another two games to go before Drew Brees (ribs) can get back under center. The Saints coasted to a 31-3 road victory over the quarterback-less Broncos, while Atlanta pounded visiting Las Vegas 43-6. New Orleans opened -3 at The SuperBook, and the only movement Sunday night was a price adjustment to Saints -3 (-120).


Browns at Titans Odds
Opening line
Titans -4, Over/Under 53

Why the line moved
Tennessee waltzed over host Indianapolis 45-26 in Week 12, while Cleveland hung on for a 27-25 road win over Jacksonville. The Titans are atop the AFC South at 8-3, and the Browns (8-3) occupy the top wild-card slot.

"We opened this one Titans -4 and are still there," Murray said Sunday evening. "Incredible performance by the Titans today. I think the public will be pretty heavily on them here."


Giants at Seahawks Odds
Opening line
Seahawks -9, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Seattle still has Week 12 work to do, traveling to face Philadelphia in the Monday nighter, while New York squeaked by host Cincinnati 19-17 Sunday. The SuperBook opened the Seahawks -9, and there was no movement through Sunday night.


Rams at Cardinals Odds
Opening line
Cardinals +2.5, Over/Under 49

Why the line moved
Los Angeles rallied from a 17-3 deficit against visiting San Francisco on Sunday, but ultimately lost 23-20 on a final-seconds field goal. Arizona went to New England as a short favorite and left with a 20-17 loss, also on a final-seconds field goal.

"We opened Rams -2.5 and are still there," Murray said. "The Rams will be a fairly public side, but I expect to see bets come in both ways here. The Cardinals really gave that game away today to New England. Both teams need this game to keep pace in the playoff race."


Eagles at Packers Odds
Opening line
Packers -7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Green Bay rolled over Chicago 41-25 in the Week 12 Sunday nighter, while Philly is set to host Seattle in the Monday nighter. Eagles-Packers opened Green Bay -7 at The SuperBook and had no movement before coming off the board once the Packers kicked off against the Bears.

"There could be significant line movement either way, depending on how those games play out," Murray said, alluding to the Week 12 Sunday and Monday night games. "Having said that, we will need the Eagles."


Patriots at Chargers Odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under 48.5

Why the line moved
New England nabbed a last-second 20-17 home win over Houston in Week 12, while Los Angeles fell 27-17 on the road against Buffalo. The line moved shortly after going up Sunday, from pick 'em to Chargers -1.


Broncos at Chiefs Odds
Opening line
Chiefs -14, Over/Under 49

Why the line moved
Kansas City led Tampa Bay 17-0 in the first quarter and 27-10 midway through the third quarter, then hung on for a 27-24 road win in Week 12. Due to COVID protocols, Denver had no actual quarterbacks available, elevating practice-squad wideout Kendall Hinton, and it showed in a 31-3 home loss to New Orleans.

Presumably, the Broncos will have starting QB Drew Lock back on the field in Week 13, though it might not matter much against the defending Super Bowl champion. The Chiefs opened -14 at The SuperBook and actually ticked down a notch to -13.5 Sunday night.


Bills at 49ers Odds
Opening line
49ers +3, Over/Under 47.5

Why the line moved
San Francisco notched a surprising 23-20 road victory over the Los Angeles Rams, winning on a last-second field goal. Buffalo prepped for the Week 13 Monday nighter with a 27-17 home win over the L.A. Chargers.

"We opened Bills -3 and are now at Bills -3 (even)," Murray said, before taking note of the new COVID regulation in Santa Clara County, Calif., that could keep this game from being played on the Niners' home field. "This game will be action at our book regardless of where the game takes place. The 49ers are getting healthy and are probably better than people think right now, but the public will be all over the Bills here."

[Udog]

NFL Betting Tips for Week 13: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Yeah, we know the Steelers have a game to play before facing Washington. But there are more potential negatives than positives that will influence the Week 13 odds, so we're grabbing all the points we can with the WFT.

The post-Thanksgiving NFL landscape is a very challenging one for football bettors.

December’s schedule not only brings chilly temperatures and erratic weather but playoff pushes, missing motivation, coaches on the hot seat, a season’s worth of wear and tear, and – special for 2020 – COVID-19 outbreaks.

There’s so much more to consider when betting the NFL Week 13 odds. But despite all those additional influences, the best NFL betting strategy remains: get the best of the number. That means knowing when to pull the trigger on your wagers.

These are our best NFL betting tips for the Week 13 lines to bet now, and the lines to bet later.

Washington Football Team (+10) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Bet Now

Thanks to Baltimore’s COVID outbreak, Washington catches Pittsburgh on a short Week 13 turnaround. The Steelers, who were supposed to battle the Ravens on Thanksgiving Thursday, play their AFC North rivals Tuesday (fingers crossed) leaving little time to prep for a feisty Football Team out of D.C.

As of Sunday night – two days away from that Ravens-Steelers game – Washington is catching 10 points on the road in Pittsburgh this Sunday. The Football Team played on Thanksgiving – a huge win at Dallas – and now reaps the benefits of that mini bye against the top team in the AFC.

There are not many positives that can come out of the Steelers’ Tuesday contest, beyond beating up on a shorthanded Baltimore squad, and that’s not going to be enough to lift this spread any higher. And with a trip to Buffalo in Week 14, Washington gets Pittsburgh in a dreaded sandwich spot: letdown from a wild week and rivalry game and looking ahead to a battle with the Bills.

Take all the points you can with Washington now (also because this line will come off the board come Tuesday). The WFT has covered in four of its last six and is well-rested in Week 13.

New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+1): Bet Later

We’ve seen this from the Patriots already this year. New England skitters along and then posts one big win and everyone jumps on the bandwagon. How else can you explain the Pats moving from as big as +2.5 to +1 for their cross-country trip to L.A. this Sunday? Well, besides the Chargers playing shit football…

New England ground out an ugly 20-17 home victory over Arizona in Week 12 and that’s helping push this spread close to a pick’em. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS on the road and fell into a similar situation at Houston in Week 11, fresh off a big home win over Baltimore the following game.

Say what you want about Anthony Lynn – and people are – but he does know Bill Belichick very well from his time in the AFC East with the Jets and Bills. The L.A. passing attack can scorch that fancy new turf at SoFi Stadium and New England gives up 9.2 yards per pass attempt on the road—dead last in the NFL.

The Chargers have come up short for sports bettors in five straight but if you’re buying the Bolts at home in Week 13, wait it out and see if you can get a pick (or even points) by the time this game kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (Under 42.5): Bet Now

The Burrow-less Bengals looked how we thought they would, putting up only 17 points in a home loss to the New York Giants this past weekend. Cincinnati second-stringer Brandon Allen completed 17 of 29 passes for 136 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

Cincinnati was three for 10 on third downs and picked up only 3.4 yards per play in that game, and now takes on a Dolphins squad that's second-best in third-down defense, allowing foes to convert on less than 34 percent of their third-down snaps. On top of that, Miami is a stop unit rooted in havoc, generating 17 takeaways on the year, including two interceptions in Sunday’s victory over the Jets.

Offensively, the Fins aren’t fantastic—no matter which QB is under center. Ryan Fitzpatrick has jumped back into the fray in relief of the injured Tua Tagovailoa (thumb) and may need to lace up that beard one more time in Week 13. Miami has managed a combined 33 points the past two games with an offense in the bottom third of DVOA, per Football Outsiders. If you’re bracing for another boring game, bet the Under now as this total has started to tick down from 43 to 42.5 points.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (Under 53): Bet Later

Derrick Henry ran up one side of the Indianapolis Colts and down the other, helping Tennessee drop 45 points on its divisional rival in Week 12. That ass waxing has inflated this Week 13 total and continues to puff it up with early action on the Over moving the number from 52 to 53 points.

Let’s not take anything away from Henry’s performance this past Sunday but the Browns present a pretty stout ground game as well. Cleveland’s two-headed RB monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is the best rushing combo in the NFL, helping the Browns boast the No. 1 average run yards per game.

There’s no shortage of home run hitters on both sides but the team that wins will be the team that's able to transform all those gains on the ground into sweet, sweet TOP (time of possession), each hoping to protect a suspect stop unit. On top of that, Cleveland could get pass rusher extraordinaire Myles Garrett back from the COVID list in time for Week 13. If you wonder about the Under, chill the F out and let this tick a little higher before you get down.