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**Udog** · 11-24-2020, 09:02 AM

Armadillo: Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Indianapolis 34, Packers 31 OT
— Green Bay in first half: 31 plays, 251 yards, 28 points.
— Packers in 2nd half/OT: 27 plays, 146 yards, 3 points.
— Packers were outscored in second half in each of their last seven games.
— Green Bay converted 57-119 third down plays (47.9%)
— In his career, Aaron Rodgers is 2-8-1 SU in overtime games.

— Last two games, Colts outscored foes 41-3 in 2nd half/OT.
— Colts are 6-0 when they score 28+ points. 1-3 when they do not.
— Indy won four of its five home games.
— Colts were called for nine holding penalties in this game.
— Indy is 12-7-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 3-1 TY.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.

Cowboys 31, Minnesota 28
— Cowboys won field position by 14 yards; only one of their 4 TD drives was longer than 61 yards.
— Dallas ran ball for 180 yards; Elliott had 103 of those.
— Dallas is 3-8 ATS this year; their three wins are by a total of 7 points.
— Cowboys get their first road win in five tries.

— Vikings were down 16-7 at half, took 28-24 lead with 9:37 left to play.
— Dallas drove 61 yards to score game-winning TD with 1:37 left.
— Vikings allowed 27+ points in all six of their losses; they allowed 23-22-20-13 in wins.
— Minnesota ran ball for only 125 yards, threw for 314; they had been running ball much better of late.

Tennessee 30, Ravens 24 OT
— Henry ran ball for 133 yards, including a 29-yard walk-off TD in OT
— Tennessee outgained the Ravens 423-306.
— Titans won four of their last five visits to Baltimore.
— Tennessee’s last four drives: 36 plays, 297 yards, two TD’s, two FG’s.

— Ravens led 14-10 at half, kicked 29-yard FG with 0:15 left to force OT.
— Baltimore lost three of last four games, after a 5-1 start.
— Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in five of six wins, 34-28-23-30 in losses.
— Ravens are 7-14 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite, 2-3 TY.

Cleveland 22, Eagles 17
— Philly fumbled ball away on Browns’ 5-yard line on their first drive.
— Eagles converted only 2-12 third down plays.
— Philly is 1-5-1 SU outside their division.
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-6-1 if they allow more than 21.

— Chubb ran for 114 yards on a rainy day by Lake Erie.
— Browns led 7-0 at the half; only score was a defensive TD.
— Cleveland won five of their six home games.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five games.

New Orleans 24, Falcons 9
— Falcons lost five of last six series games.
— Atlanta was outgained 378-248; Falcons ran ball for only 52 yards.
— Five of Falcons’ last seven games stayed under the total.
— Atlanta kicked FG’s on 3 of first 5 drives, didn’t score again.

— Saints ran for 168 yards, averaged 8.1 yards/pass attempt.
— QB Hill threw for 233 yards, ran for 51 more in his first NFL start.
— New Orleans won its last seven games, last three by 35-14-15 points.
— Last three games, Saints allowed 25 points (1 TD on 32 drives).

Carolina 20, Lions 0
— Detroit lost its last three games, giving up 31.7 ppg.
— Lions were outgained 374-185, ran ball 17 times for only 40 times.
— Detroit was outrushed 601-303 in its last four games.
— Lions got inside the Carolina 40 on only one drive.

— Backup QB Walker was 24-34/258; he threw two INT’s in red zone.
— Carolina broke a 5-game losing skid with this win.
— Panthers held Detroit to only 3.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Carolina is 0-7 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.

Houston 27, Patriots 20
— New England loses in Houston for 2nd year in a row.
— Patriots lost four of their five road games, with win 30-27 over Jets.
— New England trailed at halftime in six of its last seven games.
— Newton threw for 365 yards; Patriots only got to red zone twice (10 points)

— Texans scored three TD’s on five first half drives, gaining 239 yards.
— Houston is 3-1 when they score 27+ points, 0-6 when they do not.
— Teams combined for 693 passing yards, 141 rushing yards.
— Under is 5-2 in Houston’s last seven games.

Steelers 27, Jacksonville 3
— Steelers won first ten games (8-2 ATS), scoring 29.8 ppg.
— Pittsburgh outgained Jaguars 383-206, picked off four passes.
— Pittsburgh is +12 in turnovers this season.
— In their last six games, Steelers won field position by 9+ yards five times.

— Jacksonville drove 52 yards for FG on its first drive, never scored again.
— Jaguars lost their last nine games (3-6 ATS).
— Luton averaged threw four picks, averaged 3.4 yards/pass attempt.
— Jacksonville gave up 30.8 ppg in their last nine games.

Washington 20, Bengals 9
— Bengals were up 9-7 when rookie QB Burrow tore his ACL.
— Backup QB Finley was 3-10/30 yards passing.
— Bengals are 0-5-1 SU on the road, losing by 5-24-4-26-11 points.
— Cincy led at halftime in five of their last six games.

— NFC East standings:
3-6-1 Eagles
3-7 Dallas, New York, Washington
— Washington is 2-3 in last five games; losses were by 1-3-3 points.
— Under is 4-0-1 in last four Washington games.
— Alex Smith 17-25/166 passing; he gets his first win in two years, after shattering his leg and having 17 operations on it.

Denver 20, Miami 13
— Dolphins had their 5-game winning streak snapped.
— Miami replaced ineffective QB Tagovailoa with veteran Fitzpatrick in 4th quarter.
— Miami went 3/out on five of their first seven drives.
— Dolphins’ only TD was on a 22-yard drive after an INT.
— Dolphins were a road favorite for first time since Week 2 of 2017.

— Broncos outgained Miami 459-223; final score is misleading.
— Denver outrushed Miami 189-56; Gordon ran for 84 yards, two TD’s.
— Denver came up empty on two red zone drives in second half.
— Broncos are 10-5-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog, 3-2 TY.

LA Chargers 34, Jets 28
— Jets were down 31-13 with 1:00 left in 3rd quarter, had ball with chance to tie in last 1:00.
— Winless Jets are 3-7 ATS, losing road games by 10-29-24-26-8 points.
— Jets are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog this year.
— Jets covered three of last four games overall.

— 2nd week in row, Chargers had a punt blocked on their first drive.
— Chargers’ first TD was scored by their defense.
— This was only 2nd win for Bolts in their last nine games.
— Last seven Charger games went over the total.
— Chargers are 4-11 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY.

Chiefs 35, Las Vegas 31
— Chiefs drove 75 yards in seven plays for the winning TD with 0:29 left.
— Kansas City had ball eight times in this game, scored five TD’s.
— Chiefs ran 73 plays, only nine of them on third down.
— Chiefs won their last five games, last two 33-31/35-31.
— Divisional home underdogs are 14-4 ATS in the NFL this year.

— Las Vegas covered five of their last six games overall.
— Las Vegas lost three of their five home games SU.
— Raiders converted 25 of their last 46 third down plays.
— Eight of ten Raider games went over the total.
— Raiders 2-11 SU in last 13 games against Kansas City.

**Udog** · 11-24-2020, 09:03 AM

Betting Recap - Week 11
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Cowboys (+7, ML +260) at Vikings, 31-28
Titans (+6, ML +220) at Ravens, 30-24 (OT)
Broncos (+4, ML +180) at Broncos, 20-13
Panthers (+3, ML +144) vs. Lions, 20-0
Texans (+2.5, ML +122) vs. Patriots, 27-20

The largest favorites to cover

Steelers (-10.5) at Jaguars, 27-3
Saints (-3.5) vs. Falcons, 24-9
Browns (-2.5) vs. Eagles, 22-17
Colts (-1.5) vs. Packers, 34-31 (OT)
Washington (-1.5) vs. Bengals, 20-9

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Kansas City Chiefs-Las Vegas Raiders matchup was a little disappointing if you were holding a Raiders money line (+290) ticket.

The Raiders hit the winner in Week 5 as 10.5-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium, winning 40-32, and they felt it was worthy of a victory lap after the big win over their rivals. The Chiefs remembered, and didn't want to see it happen again on Sunday Night Football at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

It was a seesaw affair at the 'Big Al', as the teams exchanged haymakers in the first quarter with a 2-yard touchdown run by RB Josh Jacobs, before a 3-yard touchdown from Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes to WR Tyreek Hill. On the final play of the first, QB Derek Carr hit WR Nelson Agholor on a highlight reel 17-yard touchdown to make it 14-7.

Early in the second, Chiefs rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire punched one in from three yards out, and PK Daniel Carlson ended the first-half scoring, much to the delight of Raiders first-half backers (+4) and first-half money line bettors (+150), with Vegas up 17-14.

The third quarter saw just Edwards-Helaire with a 14-yard touchdown, his second scoring run of the evening, and the Chiefs were back up 21-17. 'Under' (56.5) bettors were a little nervous, needing 19 points in the final 15 minutes. That nervousness was not necessary.

Raiders TE Darren Waller opened the scoring with a 3-yard TD snare from Carr, making it 24-21 in favor of the home side. With just 5:54 to go, RB Le'Veon Bell cracked off a 6-yard touchdown to make it 28-24. TE Jason Witten put the Raiders back on top with 1:43 to go, as the Raiders officially clinched the game cover (+7.5), as well as giving 'over' bettors a winning ticket, up 31-28.

But the final score came with 1:43 to go. That's 103 seconds for the defending Super Bowl MVP. It was 28 seconds too many. Mahomes tricked a member of the secondary who bit on the quarterback scramble, and Mahomes threw a 22-yard dart to TE Travis Kelce, who was wide open in the end zone. Game. Set. Match. No money line winner for the Silver and Black.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The New England Patriots-Houston Texans (49.5) wasn't really a bad beat, but it was a disappointment if you were an 'over' bettor. If you were an 'under' bettor, you were not crying.

The teams combined for 31 points by halftime, with Houston up 21-10 at the break. After 10 points in the third quarter, over bettors were feeling pretty good heading into the final 15, with 41 points on the board. However, the teams exchanged only field goals in the fourth, and Houston held out for the 27-20.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part III

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow going down early in the third quarter with a season-ending injury in their 20-9 setback on the road against the Washington Football Team is disappointing. The Bengals were winning 9-7 at the time, winning outright as 1.5-point 'dogs.

Washington marched straight down the field on the ensuing drive and took a 14-9 lead, and it's a lead they wouldn't relinquish. In fact, the Bengals wouldn't score again as they slipped to 2-7-1 with six to go.

In addition, if you are holding an 'over' five wins ticket for the season for Cincinnati, you might as well shred that one now. QB Ryan Finley was horrible in Burrow's stead, and the Bengals are back to being the Bungles.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the Philadelphia Eagles-Cleveland Browns (45.5) tilt at FirstEnergy Stadium. While we didn't see the frozen precipitation or bone-chilling temperatures like we did the last two games in Cleveland, a 16-6 loss to the Raiders, and a 10-7 win over the Houston Texans, there was a 90 percent chance of rain for Sunday's game, and Mother Nature didn't disappoint.

It was a soggy, ugly, rainy game, and under bettors were treated to double aughts in the first quarter. A defensive touchdown on a pick-six by Sione Takitaki was the only score. At halftime, the Browns carried a 7-0 lead into the room to dry out and warm up. Defense reigned supreme in the third quarter, too, as we had a safety.

There were some uncomfortable moments for under bettors in the fourth, as the teams exchanged 10s to get the total to 39. But thankfully we had a QB Carson Wentz red-zone pick, and the Eagles weren't able to grab the onside kick after TE Dallas Goedert scored with 30 seconds left.

The highest total on the board Sunday was the SNF game between the Chiefs and Raiders, and we broke that down above. After Thursday's primetime game between the Arizona Cardinals-Seattle Seahawks (57) hit the 'under' at 28-21, the over/under is 1-1 with the Los Angeles Rams-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48) Monday night battle pending.

So far this season the under is 22-12 (64.7%) across 34 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 12

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The bad news. On Thanksgiving, we get two 3-7 battling for a win in the middle game. The good news is that it should be an even game with plenty of storylines. And, believe it or not, these two teams are each just a half-game out of first place when normally your season would essentially be over four games under .500 after 10 games.

We also get the QB Andy Dalton revenge game. Dalton was knocked out of the first meeting in Week 7 by a cheap shot, sending him into the concussion protocol. Enter QB Ben DiNucci, and he didn't have it, as the Football Team won 25-3 in that late October battle in D.C. DiNucci started one game, then QB Garrett Gilbert started another, but the Cowboys were winless in the two games without Dalton. He returned and led the Cowboys to an upset win at Minnesota to make a big difference.

Dallas has won each of the past four home games against Washington, scoring 31 or more points in each of those games. But, of course, that was with QB Dak Prescott at the helm, too.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Ravens head to the Steel City on Turkey Day (well, night), looking to avenge a 28-24 loss at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 8. It was Pittsburgh's seventh win of the season against no losses, and After their 27-3 win at Jacksonville in Week 11, they're still filing a goose egg in the loss column. That's 10 up and 10 down for the Steelers, and they have covered eight times in those 10 games, including 7-1 ATS across the past eight.

The Ravens have won the past two trips to Heinz Field, including a thrilling 26-23 overtime win last season, and a 26-14 win in 2018. Baltimore has won four of the past six in Pittsburgh straight-up, and six of the past 10 outright at the confluence.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Dolphins are coming off a 20-13 loss at Denver, snapping a five-game winning streak, and it's a game which saw rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa benched for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, as head coach Brian Flores looked for a spark. It didn't happen, as the Broncos won as four-point 'dogs. The Jets put up a pretty impressive effort in L.A., covering a 9.5-point number against the Chargers, but they remain winless at 0-10. It was their third cover of the season, however, and the 'over' result was their fifth in 10 outings. Flores did promise Tua will be back as starter in Week 12.

These teams met in Miami back in Week 6, and the Jets scored as many points as you and I, losing 24-0 as 10-point 'dogs as the 'under' (46) connected. Miami has won five of their past eight trips to New Jersey outright, and they have won seven of the previous nine overall in this series.

The Dolphins opened as touchdown favorites on the road against Gang Green.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Bears are coming off a bye. The Packers are coming off a disappointing 34-31 overtime loss on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. Both teams are going to be ornery.

This is the first of two meetings in the final six games for these rivals, with the Packers up two games over the Bears in the NFC North Division at 7-3 (vs. 5-5). The Packers have dominated this series in the regular season and postseason, winning 16 of the past 19 meetings in this series overall, including nine of the past 10 trips to Chitown, including that NFC Championship Game win in the 2010 playoffs. Last season's win in Chicago was just 10-3 for Green Bay, and the Bears clinched the NFC North in the 2018 meeting at Soldier Field while eliminating the Packers from the playoffs, so even if the teams appear to be on different planes, expect a rough and tumble affair that will be close.

The biggest question is the health of QB Nick Foles, who was knocked out in the final minute of last Monday's game against Minnesota. The good news is that he didn't sustain a fractured hip, but it's uncertain if he'll be ready, if QB Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) will be ready, or if we might see QB Tyler Bray. The quarterback situation obviously will make a huge difference on who to back, and what to play on the total. Stay tuned.

**Udog** · 11-24-2020, 09:04 AM

NFL betting tips for Week 12: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Dallas Cowboys offense showed signs of life in Week 11, and just might be starting to get a rhythm again heading into a Thanksgiving clash with Washington.

Anyone who comes from a big family knows timing is everything when enjoying your Thanksgiving.

Want hot mashed potatoes and gravy? You’d better act quick and beat the rush.

Eyeing that comfy armchair next to the fire? Get Uncle Leo another beer and wait it out until he has to go pee, then swoop in and usurp the throne.

Such skill and strategy are also needed to get the best of the NFL betting odds in Week 12. Here are our top NFL betting tips for the spreads and totals to bet now, and which ones you should bet later.

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Detroit Lions: Bet Now

The Lions playing on Thanksgiving Day is an NFL tradition, much like betting against Detroit is becoming a weekly tradition for football bettors. The Lions limp into the holiday off a 20-0 shutout loss to Carolina and a former XFL castoff second-string QB. They've failed to cover in three of their past four games, with the lone ATS win coming by a half a point versus Washington.

Houston, on the other hand, looked pretty good against the Patriots. We all knew QB Deshaun Watson could play, but the Texans defense made the big difference in Week 11 as well—something we haven’t seen much of this season.

Houston also covered the spread for the second straight week and if you’re buying a ticket on the Texans train this Thanksgiving, get it now because the price is going up. Houston is just under a field goal fave on the road in Detroit as of Sunday night and this line will likely swing to -3 by mid-Monday...if not sooner.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Bet Later

This AFC North rivalry has more drama than the debate over macaroni and cheese being a Thanksgiving dish (it is BTW, 100 percent). The Ravens have dropped two straight games and three of their last four, posting a 1-3 ATS mark in that span. In fact, Baltimore has only covered the spread once in its last five outings.

Pittsburgh was responsible for one of those losses, knocking off the Ravens 28-24 as a 4-point road underdog on November 1. The Steelers have still not tasted defeat this season, bringing a perfect 10-0 SU record and an 8-2 ATS count back to Heinz Field, where they have played just one time since October 25.

This spread opened Pittsburgh -2.5 Sunday night and quickly jumped to -3 with the field goal spread heavily juiced (there are some -3.5 popping up out there). If you’re siding with Baltimore to bounce back in this divisional dance, wait it out and see if that extra vig becomes an extra half-point or more.

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (Over 52.5): Bet Now

Two of the NFL’s strongest arms square off in this Week 12 shootout at Orchard Park. This total opened at 51.5 and has quickly jumped to 52.5 with one-sided play on the Over. And with the way these teams can sling it: why not?

Justin Herbert passed for 366 yards and three touchdowns in a win over the New York Jets (OK, not that impressive) and outside of a bad day versus Miami in Week 10, has posted big-time numbers for a rookie passer. He’s pushed L.A. to 30 or more points in six of his last seven starts (the other game had 29 points) and the Chargers have gone Over the total in each of those seven outings.

Josh Allen and the Bills enjoyed a bye in Week 11. Buffalo hit a bit of an offensive skid between Weeks 5 and 8 but got its groove back with 30 and 44-point efforts in its last two outings. Granted, the Bills defense hasn’t pushed back much, allowing 30-plus in those last two games (both went Over), but neither has the Bolts’ stop unit—the Chargers just gave up 28 points to New York.

The extended forecast for Buffalo is calling for cold and rain on Sunday, so keep an eye on how that changes throughout the week. But if you’re calling for these sides to sizzle the scoreboard Sunday, take the Over now because it’s likely going to keep on climbing.

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (Over 48): Bet Later

America’s Team on America’s holiday is like ice cream on hot apple pie. Except this year, someone put raisins in the apple pie and that ice cream is soy-based. Yuck. That’s how most people view the Dallas Cowboys right about now, despite their upset win over Minnesota in Week 11.

The short week allows the Cowboys to hold that momentum, especially on offense where they showed flashes of brilliance and some bubbling chemistry with QB Andy Dalton under center this past Sunday. Dallas scored more than 20 points for the first time since Dak Prescott went down – a good sign for Over backers – and you know this defense is going to surrender points, no matter who they’re facing.

Washington is coming off a 20-9 win over Cincinnati, marred in part by the injury to Joe Burrow. However, the Football Team has put up respectable numbers on offense in the past four weeks, averaging 23 points per game, including a 25-3 victory over Dallas at home.

This Over/Under hit the board at 48 and we’re starting to see money on the Under shift the juice toward a dip in the total. If you like what you saw from the Red Rocket and the Cowboys weapons, put a pin in that Over bet and see how low this number goes before Turkey Day.

**Udog** · 11-24-2020, 09:04 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 12
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 12 Betting Angles

Another week in the books and it was another one that held true to form with last week's angle on the best/worst points per game in the NFL.

Dallas (and the N.Y. Jets) cashed ATS ticket(s) as the team on the low end of the spectrum for points per game over their past three games, while fading the top team – Kansas City – in points per game over their last three cashed an ATS ticket as well.

That made it a perfect 5-0 ATS backing the lowest team and 5-0 ATS fading the worst team the past five weeks, and for those that want to continue aboard that train, Week 12 plays in that tracking would suggest to fade the Kansas City Chiefs again (34.3 points/game over last three) and playing on the Cleveland Browns (12.7 points/game over last three).

It's Thanksgiving week though, and among the festivities that a full weekend of wall-to-wall football action I would like to wish everyone a safe and happy holiday no matter how you choose to spend it.

It might not be a traditional Thanksgiving in the truest sense of the word, but we still have football cards to break down and that's a good thing.

So let's take a look at a couple of Turkey Day historical results that I know will have Pittsburgh Steelers fans interested.

But in true 2020 fashion, there is always bad news with the good, and sorry Steelers fans, the schedule makers may have got you for any February celebrations.

Who's Hot

Since the start of the 2006, NFL teams that went into their Thanksgiving Day games with a better W/L record than their opponent are 28-8 SU on Thanksgiving.

Found this historical angle to be rather relevant this week with all three games currently lined at about a FG or less for the favorites, with Houston, Dallas, and Pittsburgh all laying chalk against their respective opponents.

At 3-7 SU for Washington and Dallas, that game doesn't fit here, so more angles you'll want to find on that likely disaster of a game will have to be dug up elsewhere.

The things for that game I can leave you with is that when both sides came into a Thanksgiving Day game with sub-.500 records in that span, the home team has gone 3-2 SU, but did lose the last occurrence last season when the 5-6 Chicago Bears beat the 3-7-1 Detroit Lions in the first contest of the day.

The other thing to note for that Dallas game is the fact that in the six previous games that had both teams come in with identical records in the W/L column, the home team went 4-2 SU, but more importantly there were plenty of low-scoring results.

The highest combined point effort by any of those six contests was a 43-point total in Phildelphia's 33-10 win over Dallas in 2014 when both went inot the game with 8-3 SU records.

Baltimore's 22-20 win over the Steelers in 2013 being the only other game that surpassed 40 points, whereas the other four games finished with 29 points (Minnesota/Detroit in 2016), 35 points (Pittsburgh/Indy in 2016), 22 points (Seattle/SF in 2014), and 32 points (NYJ/Denver in 2009).

The Jets, Colts, and 49ers were all held to seven points or less in those games too.

The other two games this week is where this angle does apply though, as we all know it's the Steelers (good news time for Pittsburgh fans) who come in with a better record than the Ravens, but at 4-6, it's actually the Lions who have that distinction over the 3-7 Houston Texans.

Detroit has lost on Thanksgiving for three straight seasons, but all of those came against division foes. The last time Detroit went out of the division on Thanksgiving was back in 2015 when they routed the Eagles 45-14.

But coincidentally enough, the time before that saw Detroit host this same Houston Texans organization back in 2012 and they fell 34-31 in OT.

Given the ugly play we saw from Detroit on Sunday in their shutout loss to Carolina, pulling the trigger on the Lions this week has to come with some reservation.

However, the only other team to lose by shutout this year was the New York Jets back in Week 6 (24-0 vs Miami) and they obviously didn't win outright the next week, but New York did get the ATS cash in an 18-10 defeat to Buffalo the following week.

All of that makes the Lions a highly intriguing betting option this week, especially if that line creeps higher and you can get +3 with them.

Who could you follow in Week 12?

Detroit
Pittsburgh

Who's Not

Since the start of the 2006, NFL teams that have PLAYED on Thanksgiving Day have not won a Super Bowl and only three of them have even made the Super Bowl (Arizona in 2008, Seattle in 2014, Carolina in 2015).

It's not hard to poke a few holes in this history given that two of the six teams involved in Thanksgiving Day games are Dallas and Detroit and they haven't won anything in decades, but you'd have to go all the way back to the Cowboys last Super Bowl win in the mid-1990's to find a team that played on Thanksgiving and went on to win the Super Bowl.

Even during the first segment of the Patriots dynasty at the turn of the century, New England found their way to playing the Lions on Thanksgiving in 2000 and 2002, all around their Super Bowl wins during that time.

Heck even in 2017, the entire NFC East except for Philadelphia played on Thanksgiving and wouldn't you know it, the Eagles went on to win the Super Bowl that year.

Of the three teams to make it to the Super Bowl, you could argue that Arizona and Seattle should have won titles in those years had things gone their way in the final minute of those Super Bowls, but they didn't in the end, and who know's maybe it's some kind of “Thanksgiving Curse” or something this league has.

This is the bad news part for Steelers fans, as Pittsburgh is the only unbeaten left, and the first to come into a Thanksgiving Day game unbeaten since Carolina did it back in 2015.

The Panthers rolled Dallas that day (33-14) – good news for Pittsburgh this week – but any thoughts of adding Steelers futures to your portfolio right now may be left in the simmering pot for now.

This is obviously bad news for any Baltimore futures as well (myself included) if the Ravens find a way to right the ship here and find a way into the postseason.

And we can't forget about Washington or Dallas either if one of those two organizations ends up with the NFC East crown, although I'm not sure any Super Bowl futures on either of those teams are seriously being considered right now.

**Udog** · 11-24-2020, 09:07 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 12

**Udog** · 11-24-2020, 09:08 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 26

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HOUSTON (3 - 7) at DETROIT (4 - 6) - 11/26/2020, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 151-191 ATS (-59.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (3 - 7) at DALLAS (3 - 7) - 11/26/2020, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 70-102 ATS (-42.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (6 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (10 - 0) - 11/26/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 100-72 ATS (+20.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
PITTSBURGH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
PITTSBURGH is 108-80 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 29

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LAS VEGAS (6 - 4) at ATLANTA (3 - 7) - 11/29/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 59-86 ATS (-35.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 45-85 ATS (-48.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 27-47 ATS (-24.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (6 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (4 - 6) - 11/29/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 274-214 ATS (+38.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 274-214 ATS (+38.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 90-51 ATS (+33.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 202-156 ATS (+30.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 134-94 ATS (+30.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 131-94 ATS (+27.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 92-60 ATS (+26.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (3 - 7) at CINCINNATI (2 - 7 - 1) - 11/29/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 43-66 ATS (-29.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 41-21 ATS (+17.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (7 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 9) - 11/29/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (4 - 7) at MINNESOTA (4 - 6) - 11/29/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 127-96 ATS (+21.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 87-60 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (7 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 3) - 11/29/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 128-164 ATS (-52.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (3 - 7) at BUFFALO (7 - 3) - 11/29/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 131-98 ATS (+23.2 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 131-98 ATS (+23.2 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (6 - 4) at NY JETS (0 - 10) - 11/29/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 48-70 ATS (-29.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 5-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 4-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (8 - 2) at DENVER (4 - 6) - 11/29/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 6) at LA RAMS (6 - 3) - 11/29/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS are 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (9 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (7 - 3) - 11/29/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 67-45 ATS (+17.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (5 - 5) at GREEN BAY (7 - 3) - 11/29/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 119-86 ATS (+24.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 203-149 ATS (+39.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 30

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SEATTLE (7 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 6 - 1) - 11/30/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-24-2020, 09:10 AM

NFL

Week 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Thursday, November 26

Houston @ Detroit
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Detroit's last 11 games at home
Detroit is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home

Washington @ Dallas
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 10 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing Washington

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Baltimore is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Baltimore is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Sunday, November 29

Carolina @ Minnesota
Carolina
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games

Tennessee @ Indianapolis
Tennessee
Tennessee is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Arizona @ New England
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
New England
New England is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona

Cleveland @ Jacksonville
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland

Miami @ NY Jets
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Jets's last 10 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Miami

Las Vegas @ Atlanta
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games

NY Giants @ Cincinnati
NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games

LA Chargers @ Buffalo
LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 9 games on the road
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Buffalo's last 10 games
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

San Francisco @ LA Rams
San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
LA Rams
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games

New Orleans @ Denver
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Denver
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Chicago @ Green Bay
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago's last 12 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Chicago

Monday, November 30

Seattle @ Philadelphia
Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 12 games at home

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**Udog** · 11-24-2020, 09:11 AM

This report will update....

121HOUSTON -122 DETROIT
HOUSTON is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games after an upset win since 1992.

123WASHINGTON -124 DALLAS
WASHINGTON is 20-5 ATS (14.5 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.

125BALTIMORE -126 PITTSBURGH
BALTIMORE is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. in the last 3 seasons.

251LAS VEGAS -252 ATLANTA
LAS VEGAS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

253ARIZONA -254 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 24-8 ATS (15.2 Units) in home games as a dog since 1992.

255NY GIANTS -256 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 33-18 ATS (13.2 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992.

257CLEVELAND -258 JACKSONVILLE
CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games after the first month of the season in the last 2 seasons.

259CAROLINA -260 MINNESOTA
CAROLINA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

261TENNESSEE -262 INDIANAPOLIS
TENNESSEE is 18-37 ATS (-22.7 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.

263LA CHARGERS -264 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game in the second half of the season since 1992.

**Udog** · 11-24-2020, 09:13 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Texans (3-7) @ Detroit (4-6)
— Texans won two of their last three games, after a 1-6 start.
— Texans lost four of five road games SU, with win at Jacksonville.
— Houston are 0-6 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans have only one takeaway in their last four games (-1).
— Under is 5-2 in Houston’s last seven games.
— Texans are 1-3-2 ATS in last six games as a road favorite.

— Detroit lost three of last four games, giving up 30.5 ppg.
— Lions allowed 441.2 ypg in their last three games.
— Detroit was outgained 374-185 in its 20-0 loss at Carolina LW.
— Lions are 6-11 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog, 0-2 TY.
— Detroit was outrushed 601-303 in its last four games.
— Three of last four Lion games went over the total.

— Lions lost last three Thanksgiving games, by 7-7-4 points.
— Houston won three of four series games, with lone loss in 2004.
— Texans split two visits to the Motor City; last one was in 2012.

Washington (3-7) @ Dallas (3-7)
— Washington split its last four games, after a 1-5 start.
— Smith threw for 879 yards the last three weeks; he started last two games, his first starts since he shattered his leg in 2018.
— Washington is 2-2 inside the division, with losses by 1-3 points.
— Washington is 0-4 SU on road, losing by 15-14-1-3 points.
— Washington is 16-12-1 ATS in last 29 games as a road underdog.
— Under is 4-1-1 in last six Washington games.

— Cowboys lost four of its last five games, but upset the Vikings in Minnesota Sunday.
— Last nine games, Dallas is minus-13 in turnovers.
— Cowboys are 2-8 ATS this year; their three wins by total of 7 points.
— Four of last five Dallas games stayed under the total.
— Cowboys split their four home games, beating Falcons/Giants.
— Dallas is 10-12-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite, 0-3 TY.

— Cowboys (+1) lost 25-3 in Washington five weeks ago; Redskins outrushed them 208-83, outgained them for whole game, 397-142.
— Dallas won 11 of last 15 series games.
— Washington lost its last four visits here, by 5-24-8-31 points.
— Dallas lost four of its last six Thanksgiving games.

Ravens (6-4) @ Pittsburgh (10-0)
— Baltimore lost three of last four games, after a 5-1 start.
— Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in five of six wins, 34-28-23-30 in losses.
— Baltimore won four of five road games SU this year- the loss was 23-17 in Foxboro.
— Under is 3-2 in Baltimore road games this season.
— Ravens are thin at RB, with couple of guys having COVID issues.
— Ravens are 8-3-1 ATS in last dozen games as a road underdog; this is first time they’re an underdog this season.

— Steelers won first ten games (8-2 ATS), scoring 29.8 ppg.
— Pittsburgh’s home wins this year are by 5-7-9-31-26 points
— Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
— Steelers are +12 in turnovers this season, +7 in last three games.
— Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— In their last six games, Steelers won field position by 9+ yards five times.

— Steelers (+4) won 28-24 in Baltimore four weeks ago.
— Ravens ran ball for 265 yards in that game, but were -3 in turnovers.
— Pittsburgh has swept Ravens once in the last 11 years.
— Baltimore won 26-14/26-23OT in last two visits to Steel City.

Raiders (6-4) @ Atlanta (3-7)
— Las Vegas won four of their last six games, covered five of them.
— Raiders scored 33 ppg in their last three games.
— Las Vegas won four of its five road games SU.
— Raiders converted 25 of their last 48 third down plays.
— Eight of ten Raider games went over the total.
— Raiders are 2-3-1 ATS in last six games as road favorites.

— Falcons won three of last five games, after an 0-5 start.
— Atlanta lost four five home games; the win was over Denver.
— Atlanta led four of its last five games at halftime.
— Falcon opponents converted only 19 of last 57 third down plays.
— Atlanta is 1-3-1 ATS in last five games as home underdogs, 0-1 TY.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

— Falcons won last four series games.
— Raiders are 3-4 in Atlanta, losing last two visits, 35-10/23-20.

Cardinals (6-4) @ New England (4-6)
— Arizona scored 30+ points in last five games, winning four of them.
— Cardinals allowed 31.5 ppg in their last four games.
— Cardinals won three of five road games SU TY.
— Redbirds are 5-5 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite, 2-1 TY.
— Cardinals outscored their opponent in 2nd half in last eight games.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in seven of its ten games.

— New England won two of its last three games.
— Patriots won three of its five home games SU.
— New England trailed at halftime in six of its last seven games.
— NE turned ball over 14 times in first six games, once in last four games.
— Patriots are 6-7 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite, 2-2 TY.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

— New England won six of last seven series games.
— Cardinals are 3-2 in Foxboro, winning 20-18 in last visit, in 2012.

NJ Giants (3-7) @ Cincinnati (2-7-1)
— Giants won their last two games, covered six of last seven.
— Giants are 0-5 SU, 3-2 ATS outside their division.
— Five of Giants’ last six games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
— Big Blue lost four of five road games, winning 23-20 at Washington.
— Last 4+ years, Giants are 4-2-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.

— Backup QB Brandon Allen gets his first 2020 start; he was 1-2 as a starter for Denver last season.
— Bengals lost last two games by a combined 56-17.
— Cincinnati is 2-2 SU at home this year, 3-0-1 ATS.
— Cincy is 4-6-2 ATS in last 12 games as a home underdog.
— Bengals led at halftime in five of their last six games.
— AFC North teams are 6-1-1 ATS as a non-divisional underdog.

— Home side won all ten series games.
— Giants are 0-6 in Cincinnati; their last visit here was in 2012.

Browns (7-3) @ Jacksonville (1-9)
— Browns scored 6-7-6 points in their losses, averaged 31.3 ppg in wins
— Cleveland split its four road games, winning 49-38/37-34.
— Browns scored 10 or fewer points in three of last five games.
— Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Last three games, Browns outscored foes 13-6 in first half.

— Glennon gets start at QB for Jaguars, his first start since 2017; he is 6-16 as an NFL starter
— Jaguars lost last nine games, but covered two of last three.
— Last two games, Jaguars scored one TD on 23 drives.
— Jacksonville gave up 30.8 ppg in their last nine games.
— Jaguars are 7-7-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home dog, 2-4 TY.
— Last two weeks, Jacksonville averaged 4.0/3.4 yards/pass attempt.
— AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 5-8-1 ATS.

— Jacksonville is 12-5 in series, winning last three meetings, last of which was in 2017.
— Browns lost 24-20/24-6 in last two visits to Jacksonville.

Panthers (4-7) @ Minnesota (4-6)
— Carolina lost five of its last six games; they blanked Detroit LW.
— Panthers’ last two road losses were by a combined five points.
— Panthers are 16-10 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog.
— Carolina is 0-7 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
— Panthers allowed 8+ yards/pass attempt in three of last four games.
— NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 5-4 ATS.

— Vikings won three of four games, since their bye week.
— Minnesota covered six of its last eight games.
— Vikings allowed 27+ points in all six of their losses; they allowed 23-22-20-13 in wins.
— Minnesota has 14 turnovers (-9) in its losses, two in its wins (+5).
— Minnesota is 19-11-2 ATS in last 32 games as a home favorite, 1-3 TY.
— Vikings are 3-0 SU when they allow fewer than 27 points.

— Minnesota leads series 8-6; last meeting was in 2017.
— Panthers lost six of nine visits to the Twin Cities; last one was in 2014.

Titans (7-3) @ Indianapolis (7-3)
— Tennessee allowed 31+ points in three of its last five games.
— Titans split their last six games, after a 4-0 start.
— Titans lost field position by 6+ yards in five of last six games.
— Tennessee is 3-1 SU on road; all three wins were by 1-2 points or in OT.
— Over is 6-2-1 in Titans’ last nine games.
— Titans are 8-6 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.

— Colts are 6-0 when they score 28+ points. 1-3 when they do not.
— Indy won four of five home games, losing to Baltimore.
— Colts scored 31+ points in four of their five games.
— Indy is 11-7-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY.
— AFC South teams are 11-15-1 ATS outside their division.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.

— Colts outscored Tennessee 21-0 in 2nd half of 34-17 win in Nashville 17 days ago.
— Colts blocked a punt for a TD in this game.
— Indy won 20 of last 24 series games, four of last five.
— Home side lost last four series games; Titans won last two visits here.

LA Chargers (3-7) @ Buffalo (7-3)
— Chargers lost seven of last nine games, with five losses by 5 or fewer points.
— Bolts are 1-4 SU on road, losing by 7-3-1-8 points.
— Last eight Charger games went over the total.
— Chargers are 2-4-2 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
— In last six games, LA scored 21 TD’s on 67 drives; the rookie QB is good.
— In their last seven games, Chargers gave up 30.8 ppg.

— Buffalo won three of its last four games, scoring 29.0 ppg.
— Bills won four of five home games, losing only to Kansas City.
— Buffalo lost its last game on a Hail Mary on last play in Arizona.
— Bills scored 24+ points in six of their seven wins; 16-17-30 in their losses.
— Buffalo is 5-6 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Eight of their ten games went over the total.

— Chargers won last four series games, all by 11+ points.
— Chargers won 22-10/31-20 in their last two visits to Buffalo.

Dolphins (6-4) @ NJ Jets (0-10)
— Dolphins won/covered five of their last five games.
— Dolphins scored 20+ points in first half of four of those six games.
— Miami allowed 17 or fewer points in four of six wins; 21-31-31-20 in losses.
— Miami won three of five road games, losing 21-11 in Foxboro, 20-13 in Denver LW.
— Dolphins are 8-4 ATS in last dozen games as a road underdog.
— In last four games, 5 of 9 Miami TD’s were on drives shorter than 40 yards; they also scored two defensive TD’s and ran a punt back for a score.

— Winless Jets are 3-7 ATS, losing home games by 8-9-20-8-3 points.
— Jets are 0-5 SU at home this year (2-3 ATS), losing by 18-9-20-8-26 points.
— Jets have been outscored 59-29 in 2nd half of their last five games.
— Flacco is expected to get another start in place of injured starter Darnold.
— Jets are 6-4 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.
— NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 14-4 ATS.

— Miami blanked Jets 24-0 in Miami six weeks ago, winning field position by 18 yards.
— Teams combined to converted only 3-26 third down plays.
— Home side won seven of last eight series games.
— Dolphins lost four of last five series games in the Garden State.

Saints (8-2) @ Denver (4-6)
— Hill threw for 233 yards, ran for 51 more in first NFL start as a QB.
— New Orleans won its last seven games, last three by 35-14-15 points.
— Saints allowed 18.9 ppg in their wins, 34-37 points in losses.
— New Orleans won three of four road games; they’re 2-0 outdoors, winning 26-23 in Chicago, 38-3 in Tampa.
— Saints are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as a road favorite.
— Seven of their ten games went over the total.

— Denver lost three of last five games, giving up 31.4 ppg.
— Broncos gave up 26+ points in seven of their last nine games.
— Denver lost three of five home games, losing by 2-18-27 points.
— Broncos are 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games as a home underdog, 3-2 TY.
— Three of their last five games went over the total.
— Denver turned ball over 12 times (-6) in their last five games.

— Broncos won last five series games.
— Saints lost five of six visits to Denver, losing 34-32/34-14 in last two.

49ers (4-6) @ LA Rams (7-3)
— 49ers had bye LW; Rams played in Florida Monday night.
— Mullens gets another start at QB, replacing injured Garoppolo (ankle).
— 49ers allowed 16 or fewer points in their wins, 31.7 ppg in their losses.
— 49ers lost last three games (0-3 ATS), giving up 32.7 ppg.
— Over is 3-2 in their road games this season.
— 49ers are 13-10 ATS in last 23 games as a road underdog.

— Rams won five of their last seven games.
— LA has outscored opponents 116-45 in second half of games.
— Rams are 4-0 SU at home, winning by 3-8-14-7 points.
— Six of LA’s last seven games stayed under the total.
— Under McVay, Rams are 13-10 ATS as a home favorite, 2-1 TY.
— NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 19-17 ATS.

— 49ers led 21-6 at halftime, held off the Rams 24-16 at home in Week 6.
— San Francisco won last three series games; they won three of last four visits here.
— Rams averaged only 5.2 yards/pass attempt in Week 6, their worst mark this year.

Chiefs (9-1) @ Tampa Bay (7-4)
— Chiefs won their last five games, last two 33-31/35-31.
— Kansas City won all five road games this year, covering three of them.
— Chiefs are 8-4 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 2-2 TY.
— Three of their last four games went over.
— Chiefs scored 32+ points in seven of 10 games this year.
— AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-2-1 ATS.

— Tampa Bay is 7-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-4 when it scores less.
— Short week for Buccaneers after their home game Monday night.
— Tampa Bay won seven of its last ten games.
— Bucs are 3-2 SU at home, losing last two home games to Saints/Rams.
— Tampa Bay is 6-3-1 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.
— Last four games, Bucs were outscored 79-37 in first half.

— Tampa Bay won last five series games; three of last four series games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
— Chiefs lost last three visits here by a combined 73-28; their last visit here was in ’12.

Bears (5-5) @ Green Bay (7-3)
— Bears lost their last four games, after a 5-1 start.
— Chicago has three wins by 4 points each, another win by one point.
— Bears scored only 15.8 ppg in last four games.
— Bears are 9-15-1 ATS in last 25 games as road underdog, 3-2 TY.
— Chicago has only three takeaways in its last four games (-4).
— Six of their last seven games stayed under the total.

— Green Bay split its last six games, after a 4-0 start.
— Packers scored 30+ points in six of their wins; 10-22-31 points in losses.
— Green Bay converted 57-119 third down plays (47.9%)
— Packers are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
— Three of four Green Bay games stayed under the total.
— Packers were outscored in second half of their last seven games.

— Green Bay won 17 of last 20 series games; their last four series wins were all by 8 or fewer points.
— Bears lost last four visits to Lambeau Field, by 16-21-1-8 points.

Seahawks (7-3) Eagles (3-6-1)
— Seattle lost three of last five games, after a 5-0 start.
— Seahawks won field position in first five games, but only once in last five.
— Seattle is 7-3-4 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.
— Seahawks scored 31+ points in seven of ten games; they scored 34-34-16 in losses.
— Seven of their ten games went over the total.
— Seahawks are minus-6 in turnovers (1-7) their last three games.

— Philly is 1-4-1 SU outside their division.
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-6-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Underdogs covered seven of their ten games this season.
— Eagles are 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Philly is 2-2-1 SU at home this season, losing to Rams/Ravens
— Six of last eight Philly games stayed under the total.

— Seahawks won last six series games, holding Eagles to 11.8 ppg.
— Seattle won its last six visits here; their last loss in Philly was in 1989.

**Udog** · 11-24-2020, 11:00 AM

NFL Week 12 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a torn left ACL and MCL in Sunday's loss at Washington and is done for the season. Cincinnati opened +4.5 and moved to +5.5 against the visiting Giants in Week 12.

NFL Week 11 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 12 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury information, most notably the devastating injury to Cincinnati Bengals rookie quarterback Joe Burrow.

Week 12 Injuries

Cincinnati Bengals: It's even worse than anticipated for Burrow, who not only tore his left ACL, but also his MCL and had other knee damage, as well, from a hit in Sunday's 20-9 loss at Washington. Obviously, his rookie campaign is done, and he could well miss next season, too. John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook at Westgate, said it's a touchdown drop-off to second-year backup Ryan Finley. "Yep, I'd say thats about right, 6.5 to 7 points, because the backup is so bad. Finley isn’t an NFL QB, and the Bengals' offensive line is terrible."

As such, the Bengals opened +4.5 against the visiting Giants and reached +5.5 Monday morning. The total opened at 43 and dipped to 41.5 Monday morning, then rebounded to 42.5.

Cleveland Browns: Standout defensive end Myles Garrett sat out Week 11 against Philadelphia following a positive COVID test, and Garrett will not play this week at Jacksonville, either. The Browns opened -7 at The SuperBook and dipped to -6.5 Monday.

Baltimore Ravens: Running backs Mark Ingram II and J.K. Dobbins tested positive for COVID and will not be available for Thursday night's game at Pittsburgh. The SuperBook had the Ravens +3.5, but took this game off the board Monday morning after the COVID news, awaiting more clarity on the situation. The game was still off the board Monday night.

Chicago Bears: Quarterbacks Nick Foles (hip) and Mitch Trubisky (shoulder) are both uncertain to be available for the Sunday night game at Green Bay. The SuperBook has yet to post this game, waiting for the Bears to clarify who will be under center before doing so.

Minnesota Vikings: Wideout Adam Thielen was placed on the reserve/COVID list Monday, a day after he had eight catches for 123 yards and two touchdowns in a home loss to Dallas. Minnesota hosts Carolina on Sunday, and this game still hasn't hit the board due to the Panthers' QB situation (see below).

Carolina Panthers: QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee) sat out Sunday's win over Detroit, with P.J. Walker instead leading the victory. It appears Bridgewater will be back this week at Minnesota, but it's not certain yet, so The SuperBook hasn't posted the Panthers-Vikings line.

New England Patriots: Running back Rex Burkhead suffered a serious knee injury, perhaps a torn ACL, in Sunday's loss at Houston. The SuperBook opened the Pats +2.5 at home against Arizona in Week 12, and the line spent about 12 hours at +3 before returning +2.5 Monday morning. However, the total is up to 49.5 from an opener of 48.

Los Angeles Chargers: Running back Austin Ekeler (hamstring), out since getting hurt in Week 4, might return this week, but it's not yet clear. The Chargers opened +5.5 at Buffalo. moved to +6 and back to +5.5 Monday at The SuperBook.

Week 12 Weather

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: The early forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of showers during the day and a 20 percent chance at night, with the Ravens and Steelers wrapping up a three-game Thanksgiving feast in an 8:20 p.m. ET start. The total opened at 46 and dipped to 45 Monday morning at The SuperBook, before this game came off the board altogether due to the aforementioned Ravens COVID news.

New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals: There's a 40 percent chance of showers in Cincinnati on Sunday. The SuperBook opened the total at 43 and dipped to 41.5, then ticked up to 42.5 Monday.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars: Early in the week, Sunday's forecast shows a 40 percent chance of afternoon rain. However, this total was up to 48.5 by Monday morning, off an opener of 46.5 at The SuperBook.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: It'll be cold and perhaps snowy and a little breezy Sunday night at Lambeau Field. The early forecast points to temperatures in the 20s, a 30 percent chance of snow flurries and winds of 10-20 mph.

**Udog** · 11-24-2020, 09:15 PM

Tech Trends - Week 12
Bruce Marshall

Week 12 of the NFL season kicks off on Thanksgiving, and we've identified betting trends and angles for all the matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Nov. 26

HOUSTON at DETROIT
Detroit has lost 13 of its last 16 games when playing on Thanksgiving
Detroit is 4-3 vs. the line in last seven games when playing on Thanksgiving
Detroit is 3-7 vs. the line in last 10 home games
Detroit has gone OVER the point total in eight of its last 13 games
Houston is 1-5-1 vs. the spread in last seven road games

Tech Edge: OVER based on point total trends.

WASHINGTON at DALLAS
Dallas is 2-8 vs. the line this year
Dallas is 1-8 vs. the points in last nine games when playing on Thanksgivinng
Dallas has gone UNDER the point total in four of its last five games

Tech Edge: Washington and UNDER based on point total and extended series trends.

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 2-5-1 vs. the spread over last eight games
Baltimore has covered the spread in four of its last five games when playing in Pittsburgh
Baltimore has won five straight games as the underdog
The point total has gone OVER in three straight games played between both teams

Tech Edge: Baltimore and OVER based on series trends annd point total trends.

Sunday, Nov. 29

LAS VEGAS at ATLANTA
Atlanta has won three of its last five games since Dan Quinn was fired
Las Vegas has covered the spread inn five of its last six games, and four of its last five road games
Las Vegas has gone OVER the point total in six of its last nine games

Tech Edge: OVER based on point total trends.

ARIZONA at NEW ENGLAND
Arizona has failed to cover the spread in three straight games
Arizona is 8-3-1 vs. the points in last 12 road games
New England has failed to cover the spread in 11 of its last 17 games

Tech Edge: Arizona based on team trends.

CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE
Jacksonville has covered the spread in two of its last three games
Cleveland has failed to cover the spread in 17 of its last 26 games
Cleveland has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 road games

Tech Edge: Jacksonville based on recent team trends.

N.Y. GIANTS at CINCINNATI
New York has covered the spread in six of its last seven games
New York has covered the spread in six straight games as the underdog
Cincinnati has failed to cover the spread in six of its last eight games as the favorite
Cincinnati has gone OVER the point total in 10 of its last 14 games

Tech Edge: New York and OVER based onn recent team trends and point total trends.

CAROLINA at MINNESOTA
Carolina has covered the spread in four straight road games
Carolina has covered the spread inn six of its last seven games as the underdog
Minnesota has covered the spread in six of its last eight games
Minnesota has gone OVER the point total in 15 of its last 21 games

Tech Edge: OVER based point total trends.

TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS
Indianapolis won last meeting 34-17
Tennessee has won 16 of its last 23 games since Ryan Tannehill become the starting quarterback
Tennessee has gone OVER the point total in 18 of its last 23 games
Tenessee has won four of its last six games as the underdog
Indianapolis has gone OVER the point total in five of its last six games

Tech Edge: Titans and OVER based on team trends and point total trends.

L.A. CHARGERS at BUFFALO
Los Angeles has failed to cover the spread in four straight games
Los Angeles has failed to cover the spread in 19 of its last 26 games
Los Angeles has gone OVER the point total in 11 of its last 15 games
Buffalo has gone OVER the point total in seven of its last 10 games

Tech Edge: OVER based on point total trends.

MIAMI at N.Y. JETS
Miami won last meeting 24-0
Miami has covered the spread in seven of its last nine games
New York has covered the spread in three of its last four games
The point total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven games played between both teams

Tech Edge: Miami and UNDER based on team trends and point total trends.

NEW ORLEANS at DENVER
New Orleans has gone OVER in nine of its last 14 games
Denver has won six of its last nine home games when playing as the underdog
New Orleans is 9-2 vs. the line in last 11 road games

Tech Edge: New Orleans and OVER based on team trends and point total trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at L.A. RAMS
San Francisco has won three straight games when facing Los Angeles
Los Angeles has gone UNDER the point total in six of its last seven games
Los Angeles has gone UNDER the point total in its first four home games this season

Tech Edge: San Francisco and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

KANSAS CITY at TAMPA BAY
Kansas City has covered the spread in seven of its last nine road games
Bruce Arians has gone OVER the point total in 34 of his last 50 games

Tech Edge: Kansas City and OVER based on team and point total trends .

CHICAGO at GREEN BAY
Chicago has lost four straight games
Chicago has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games
Chicago has gone UNDER the point total in seven of its last 10 games

Tech Edge: UNDER based on point total trends.

Monday, Nov. 30

SEATTLE at PHILADELPHIA
Seattle won and covered twice last year in Philadelphia, the score exactly 17-9 both times
Seattle has failed to cover the spread in three straight road games
Philadelphia has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last 10 home games

Tech Edge: Seattle based on team trends.

**Udog** · 11-25-2020, 03:51 PM

Ravens vs. Steelers postponed until Sunday afternoon

**Udog** · 11-26-2020, 10:40 AM

Texans vs. Lions Week 12 Odds, Preview
Jonathan Willis

There have been a lot of changes and things outside the norm during the 2020 NFL season, but we will keep at least a few traditions alive during Thanksgiving. Detroit will host the first game of a Thanksgiving Day tripleheader on Thursday, welcoming the Houston Texans to the Motor City.

The 4-6 Lions have not fared well on Thanksgiving recently, posting a 4-12 record since 2004, so they are home underdogs to the 3-7 Texans.

Week 12 Matchup: AFC vs. NFC
Venue: Ford Field
Location: Detroit, Michigan
Date: Thursday, Nov. 26, 2020
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

The Lions look to bounce back following a shutout loss at Carolina last week. (AP)

Texans-Lions Betting Odds

Spread: Houston -3
Money-Line: Houston -150, Detroit +130
Total: 51.5

2020 Betting Stats

Houston

Overall: 3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 O/U
Road: 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS, 4-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 22.7 (Rank 22)
Defense PPG: 27.2 (Rank 23)
Offense YPG: 358.9 (Rank 17)
Defense YPG: 411.7 (Rank 31)

Detroit

Overall: 4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, 6-4 O/U
Home: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 4-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 22.7 (Rank 22)
Defense PPG: 28.7 (Rank 28)
Offense YPG: 342.9 (Rank 25)
Defense YPG: 397.4 (Rank 27)

All-Time Record on Thursday

Houston 5-5
Detroit 26-29 (25-28 on Thanksgiving)

How to Handicap Texans-Lions

The Lions are likely to miss the playoffs for the third straight season under Matt Patricia, and this is almost certain to be his last year in Detroit. They are 13-28-1 under his watch, and they will probably finish in last place in the NFC North for the third consecutive year.

Detroit is coming off its worst offensive showing of the season. The Lions were a three-point road favorite against Carolina last week, but they posted just 185 total yards of offense in a 20-0 loss to the Panthers. They are now 4-6 SU and 4-6 ATS on the season, and three of their four victories have come by a field goal or less.

Three of their last four games have gone 'over' the total.

It’s been a tough season for Houston. The Texans’ only victories came against the 1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars prior to last week, but Deshaun Watson is still playing great football. His play spurred Houston’s upset win over New England last week, giving the Texans consecutive covers for the first time all season.

Houston was 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS through the first half of the 2020 season. The Texans have bounced back with covers in their last two games, although they were fortunate to pick up the cover against Cleveland as Nick Chubb ran out of bounds at the one-yard line rather than give the Browns more of a cushion.

Betting Analysis - Detroit Lions

2020: 4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, 6-4 O/U

Matt Stafford is currently listed as questionable to play in this game. However, he is widely expected to start despite dealing with a torn ligament in his thumb. Stafford has said that the thumb didn’t bother him against Carolina last week, but he threw for under 200 yards for the first time all year and averaged just 5.4 YPA.

Nearly all of Detroit’s skill position players are questionable too. Top wideout Kenny Golladay hasn’t played in nearly a month due to a hip injury, and D’Andre Swift is still on the mend after missing last week’s game due to a concussion. Danny Amendola sat out last week with a hip issue as well, while T.J. Hockenson is dealing with a shoulder issue.

That will make this offense heavily reliant on Adrian Peterson and Marvin Jones Jr. Peterson currently leads Detroit with 389 yards (3.7 YPC), but he has carried the ball just 35 times for 104 yards over the last three games. Jones is the leading receiver with 37 receptions for 455 yards and five touchdowns.

Patricia was hired to turn around Detroit’s defense. The Lions were 10th in total defense in his first season, but they finished 31st in total defense and are currently 27th in the league. No. 3 overall pick Jeff Okudah has been underwhelming in his rookie season, and the pass defense has really struggled without Darius Slay.

Betting Analysis - Houston Texans

2020: 3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 O/U

Watson has been at his best this season. Although Houston is 3-7, this team might be winless without its superstar quarterback. He is performing like one of the top four signal callers in the league, so it’s impossible to put any of this team’s woes on his shoulders. Watson is completing 68.9 percent of his passes for 8.5 YPA with 20 touchdowns against just five interceptions.

For Houston to win this game, Watson might have to put the Texans on his shoulders just like he did last week against the Patriots. Leading rusher David Johnson is still on injured reserve, and Duke Johnson is averaging just 2.8 YPC. Watson was responsible for all but 19 of Houston’s yards against New England, so we might see something similar here.

Randall Cobb has been ruled out due to injury, and Kenny Stills is currently questionable. Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks are Houston’s top two receivers though, and they are both ready to go on Thursday. Fuller is averaging 5.1 YPC, while Cooks has had at least 60 receiving yards in five of his last six games.

The Texans have not been sharp on defense. Houston is 31st in the league in total defense, and the run defense ranks dead last, allowing 5.1 YPC and 159.3 YPG. J.J. Watt is fresh off his best performance of the year with four pass deflections last week.

Historically Speaking

Detroit beat Houston in the first meeting between these franchises back in 2004, but the Texans have emerged victorious the last three times they have met on the gridiron. Houston knocked off Detroit 34-31 on Thanksgiving in 2012 as Stafford’s 441-yard performance was in vain.

Notable Betting Trends

-- Houston is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a favorite

-- The Texans are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games

-- Detroit is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games

Injuries

Houston Texans

OT Laremy Tunsil: Illness - Probable
G Senio Kelemete: Concussion - Questionable
WR Kenny Stills: Quad - Out
FB Cullen Gillaspia: Back - Out
WR Randall Cobb: Toe - Out
S Michael Thomas: Shoulder - Out

Detroit Lions

RB D'Andre Swift: Concussion - Questionable
CBAmani Oruwariye: Back - Questionable
CB Mike Ford: Concussion - Doubtful
DE Da'Shawn Hand: Groin - Out
WR Danny Amendola: Hip - Out
WR Kenny Golladay: Hip - Out
CB Jeffrey Okudah: Shoulder - Out

**Udog** · 11-26-2020, 10:44 AM

Washington vs. Cowboys Week 12 Odds, Preview
Jonathan Willis

Like it or not, either the Washington Football Team or the Dallas Cowboys will be in sole possession of first place in the NFC East at 4-7 after Thanksgiving.

This is the worst division in recent memory, and there will probably be a sub-.500 division winner for just the third time since realignment.

Interestingly, the four teams to win their division at .500 or worse have all gone on to win in the Wild Card Round before losing in the Divisional Rounds.

Betting Resources

Week 12 Matchup: NFC East
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, Texas
Date: Thursday, Nov. 26, 2020
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Washington-Dallas Betting Odds

Spread: Dallas -3
Money-Line: Dallas -150, Washington +130
Total: 46

How to Handicap Dallas-Washington

This will be the tenth meeting between Dallas and Washington on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are 8-1 against Washington in the previous nine games played on this holiday.

Washington smashed Dallas when these teams met in Week 7.

Quarterback Andy Dalton went 9-19 for 75 yards and an interception before leaving the game with a concussion, as Washington took a 22-3 lead into halftime. The Cowboys finished the game with just 142 yards of offense in a 25-3 loss.

Both teams are coming off a win last week. Washington knocked off Cincinnati to pick up its third home victory, but Ron Rivera’s side is 0-4 on the road.

They lost by two touchdowns to both Arizona and Cleveland in September, but they stayed within a field goal of the New York Giants and Detroit Lions in their last two games outside the nation’s capital.

Dallas failed to secure a cover in its first eight games. The Cowboys were unable to cover the number in narrow wins over the Giants and the Atlanta Falcons, but they hung around against Pittsburgh just before their bye week and pulled off the upset as a seven-point underdog against Minnesota last week. Four of Dallas’ last five games have gone under the total.

Washington can pick up the season sweep of Dallas with a win on Thanksgiving Day. (AP)

Betting Analysis - Washington

Overall: 3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS, 4-6 O/U
Road: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 20.0 (Rank 29)
Defense PPG: 22.7 (Rank 9)
Offense YPG: 324.0 (Rank 28)
Defense YPG: 315.8 (Rank 5)

The Alex Smith story has been an inspiring one. Smith recorded his first victory in two years against Cincinnati last week. The veteran overcame a devastating injury that required 17 surgeries to get back on the field, and he is a shoo-in to be named NFL Comeback Player of the Year in a couple months.

Smith has looked somewhat rusty since replacing the injured Kyle Allen. That’s to be expected after such a long time away from the field, but he has thrown just two touchdowns with four interceptions in three starts against subpar defenses.

Washington has a superb second-year receiver in Terry McLaurin. McLaurin leads the team in every receiving category with 62 receptions for 871 yards and three touchdowns. Unfortunately, the talent pool is largely barren aside from him at the skill positions. Cam Sims has the second-best numbers as a wide receiver with just 13 catches for 245 yards.

The run game has been serviceable with Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic carrying the load. Gibson has been the primary ball carrier with 530 yards (4.5 YPC) and eight touchdowns, while McKissic is averaging 4.4 YPC.

Putting pressure on the passer is vital in this day and age, but no team has invested in this position group like Washington.

Chase Young was the fourth straight defensive lineman taken in the first round by this team, teaming up with Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, and Montez Sweat.

Unsurprisingly, this defense gets a ton of pressure, posting the second-best sack rate in the NFL while allowing a league-best 195.4 YPG through the air.

Betting Analysis - Dallas

Overall: 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS, 5-5 O/U
Home: 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 23.5 (Rank 20)
Defense PPG: 31.8 (Rank 32)
Offense YPG: 393.1 (Rank 6)
Defense YPG: 386.4 (Rank 24)

Dalton is coming off his best game of the year.

The former Cincinnati quarterback didn’t inspire much confidence in his first two starts, but he was solid against the Vikings last week. He completed 68.8 percent of his passes for a little over 200 yards with three touchdowns and an interception.

Dalton does need to limit his turnovers though, having thrown at least one interception in all three of his starts.

The Cowboys boast one of the most impressive collections of talent at wide receiver with Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup.

Cooper leads Dallas with 65 receptions for 736 yards and two touchdowns, while Lamb (13 receptions for 20 yards or more) and Gallup (16.0 YPR) have been big play threats.

One of the most frustrating developments of the season for Dallas fans has been the lack of a run game. RB Ezekiel Elliott has not been the same back that he was over his first four years in the NFL, averaging just 3.9 YPC with just one run of 20 yards or more. Elliott did run for over 100 yards for the first time in 2020 last week, and it will be up to him to help keep the pressure off Dalton.

Dallas is giving up more points (31.8 PPG) than any other team in the NFL. The pass defense was the problem early on, but the run defense has been the issue in recent weeks. The Cowboys are conceding 4.9 YPC and an NFC-worst 153.8 YPG on the ground. These linebackers have underperformed, and the secondary is missing rookie Trevon Diggs.

All-Time Record on Thursday

Washington 5-14 (0-9 at Dallas on Thanksgiving)
Dallas 40-24-1 (31-20-1 on Thanksgiving)

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 25, 2020 - Washington 25 vs. Dallas 3, Football Team +1, Under 44.5
Dec. 19, 2019 - Dallas 47 vs. Washington 16, Cowboys -12.5, Over 47.5
Sep. 15, 2019 - Dallas 31 at Washington 21, Cowboys -6, Over 46.5

Dallas leads the all-time series between these two teams 73-46-2.

They have been lights out over the last two decades and change, winning 33 of the last 46 games between these two NFC East rivals.
Last Meeting (Washington 25 Dallas 3)

Washington led from start to finish against Dallas in October. Allen completed 60 percent of his passes for 194 yards and two scores, while Gibson ran for 128 yards and a score. The defense was lights out with six sacks on 32 dropbacks.

Notable Betting Trends

-- Washington is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 division games

-- The Cowboys have failed to cover five straight games as a favorite

-- The over is 9-4 in Dallas’ last 13 division games

Key Injuries

Washington

K Dustin Hopkins: Groin - Questionable
LB Jared Norris: Hamstring - Questionable
OT Cornelius Lucas: Ankle - Questionable
S Deshazor Everett: Ankle - Questionable
LB Ryan Anderson: Knee - Questionable
OT Geron Christian: Knee - Out

Dallas

CB Anthony Brown: Ribs - Questionable
LB Luke Gifford: Suspension - Out

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Thur., Nov. 26 - Monday, Nov. 30)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Thur., Nov. 26 - Monday, Nov. 30)

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