NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Thur., Oct. 29 - Monday, Nov. 2)

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 8
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Minnesota at Green Bay
-- The Vikings are 12-0 ATS (9.00 ppg) since Nov 01, 2009 coming off a loss where they had a player with over 110 receiving yards.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Baltimore
-- The Ravens are 0-11-2 ATS (-5.92 ppg) since Dec 24, 2011 as a favorite coming off a game as a favorite where they allowed at least 24 points.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Baltimore
-- The Steelers are 8-0 ATS (7.19 ppg) since Oct 14, 2018 coming off a game where James Conner ran for at least 75 yards.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Tennessee at Cincinnati
-- The Titans are 13-0-1 OU (12.00 ppg) since Dec 30, 2012 and as a favorite coming off a game where they had less than 28 minutes time of possession and allowed at least 14 points.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: New Orleans at Chicago
-- The Bears are 0-14-1 OU (-8.53 ppg) since Oct 04, 2015 at home coming off a game as a dog where they failed to cover.


NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: L.A. Chargers at Denver
-- The Chargers are 0-11 OU (-8.64 ppg) since Dec 24, 2015 when they are coming off a win and a playing a team below .500 on the season.


Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Udog]

Armadillo: NFL leaders in net punting this year:

48.0— Jack Fox, Det
46.8— Jake Bailey, NE
45.3— Cameron Johnston, Phil
44.6— Michael Dickson, Sea
44.2— Tress Way, Wash
43.3— Rigoberto Sanchez, Ind

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Buffalo 24, Patriots 21
— Newton fumbled on the Buffalo 13-yard line in last minute.
— Patriots lost last four games, scoring four TD’s on 39 drives, with 12 turnovers.
— New England is 0-3 on the road losing 35-30/26-10/24-21.
— In his career as a head coach, Belichick is now 58-71 without Brady.

— Bills beat New England for only 6th tine in last 41 tries.
— Buffalo scored 24 points in four red zone drives; NE scored 10 points on three drives.
— Bills ran for 190 yards; Singletary had 86, Moss 81
— Six of Buffalo’s eight games went over the total.

Steelers 28, Baltimore 24
— Steelers won their first seven games (6-1 ATS), scoring 30.1 ppg.
— Steelers are 9-2 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.
— Over is 4-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last six games.
— Steelers won two of last three visits to Baltimore.

— Ravens outgained Pittsburgh 457-221, but turned ball over four times (-3).
— Jackson threw pick-6 in first minute of game; he completed only 13-28 passes.
— Baltimore is 10-17 ATS in last 27 games as a home favorite, 2-2 this year.
— Penalties: Steelers 3-30 yards, Ravens 9-110

Colts 41, Detroit 21
— Colts won five of their last six games.
— Indy scored two TD’s 0:08 apart early in fourth quarter.
— Colts outrushed Detroit 119-29.
— Indy is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 post-bye games.

— Colts’ first three drives: 22 plays, 62 yards, no points.
— Indy’s last seven drives: 46 plays, 324 yards, 34 points.
— Lions allowed 27+ points in their four losses; 23-16-22 in their wins.
— Lions are 7-11 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.

Vikings 28, Green Bay 22
— Dalvin Cook: 30 carries 163 yards; 2 catches 63 yards, four TD’s.
— Cousins threw only 14 passes the whole game (10.1 yards/attempt).
— Minnesota covered four of its last five games overall.
— Vikings’ first four drives: 36 plays, 288 yards, 28 points.

— Green Bay’s first two drives: 28 plays, 147 yards, 14 points.
— Green Bay rest of the game: 38 plays, 214 yards, 8 points.
— Last four Green Bay games stayed under the total.
— Vikings are 3-2-1 SU in last six visits to Lambeau.

Cincinnati 31, Titans 20
— Titans are 4-0 when they score 31+ points, 1-2 when they don’t.
— Unusual thing; neither team went 3/out the whole game.
— Titans are 6-10 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
— While in college at Texas A&M, Titans’ QB Tannehill was moved from WR to QB by Mike Sherman, who is father-in-law of Bengals’ coach Taylor.

— Bengals converted 10-15 third down plays.
— Cincinnati is 6-1-1 ATS this season.
— Bengals’ last six drives: 54 plays, 331 yards, 28 points.
— Cincinnati won five of last seven series games.

Raiders 16, Cleveland 6
— Raiders outgained Cleveland 309-223 on a windy day by Lake Erie.
— First Raider game this season that stayed under total.
— Raiders are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— AFC West non-divisional road teams are 7-1-2 ATS.

— Browns scored 37.2 ppg in their wins, 6-7-6 points in their losses.
— Cleveland gained only 223 yards, had 14 first downs.
— Browns, Jets, Dallas were only teams that didn’t score a TD Sunday.
— Browns were outscored in second half in six of their eight games.

Kansas City 35, Jets 9
— Winless Jets are 1-7 ATS, losing road games by 10-29-24-26 points.
— Jets have been outscored 81-25 in 2nd half of their last six games.
— Jets are 8-20-2 ATS in last 29 games as a road underdog, 0-3 TY.
— First four times Jets had ball, they tried a FG, making three of them.

— Mahomes threw for 419 yards; Chiefs scored TD’s on 3 of first 4 drives.
— KC allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 40 points in their loss.
— Chiefs are 20-11 ATS in last 31 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

Miami 28, Rams 17
— Miami had four takeaways, ran punt back for a TD in first half.
— Dolphins allowed 17 or fewer points in their wins; 21-31-31 in losses.
— Miami is 13-9-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home underdog.
— Dolphins are first team since ’04 Colts to lead three games in a row at halftime, all by 18+ points.

— Tell your statistics to shut up: Rams outgained Miami 471-145 (not a misprint)
— Kupp caught 11 passes for 110 yards; he was targeted 21 times.
— Rams lost last five visits to Miami; their last win there was in 1976.
— LA has outscored opponents 103-32 in second half of games.

Saints 26, Chicago 23 OT
— New Orleans won its last four games, by 6-3-3-3 points.
— Saints allowed 23-29-27-24-23 points in their wins, 34-37 in losses.
— Saints won despite converting only 2-13 third down plays.
— All seven of their games this year went over the total.

— Bears led 13-3 in 2nd quarter, but Saints scored TD with 0:03 left in half.
— Chicago’s first four drives in 2nd half: 15 plays, 14 yards, zero points.
— Foles was sacked five times; Saints won field position by 9 yards.
— Bears lost their last six games with New Orleans.

Seattle 37, 49ers 27
— 49ers allowed 16 or fewer points in their wins, 24-25-43-37 in their losses.
— Niners ran ball 22 times for only 52 yards.
— 49ers trailed 30-7 before scoring three TD’s in garbage time.
— Garoppolo, Kittle left this game early with injuries.

— Seattle won six of its first seven games, scoring 35.7 ppg.
— Seahawks have scored 32 TD’s on 72 drives this season.
— Seattle converted 9-15 third down plays in this game.
— Seahawks five 2nd half drives: 38 plays, 203 yards, 24 points.
— Six of their seven games went over the total.

Denver 31, LA Chargers 30:
— Broncos drove 81 yards, scored winning TD as time expired.
— Denver’s last three drives: 25 plays, 236 yards, 21 points.
— Broncos are 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog.
— Denver won 11 of last 14 series games.
— Chargers lost seven of last eight visits to Denver.

— LA led this game 24-3 with 7:00 left in third quarter.
— Since Week 2 of last year, Chargers are 2-14 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Chargers lost five of last six games, with two losses in OT.
— Chargers outgained Denver 485-351, but blew that big lead.
— Last four Charger games went over the total.

Philadelphia 23, Dallas 9
— Cowboys were outscored 86-22 in last three games.
— Last six games, Dallas is minus-14 in turnovers.
— Dallas lost its first four road games, 20-18/38-31/25-3/23-9.
— Cowboys are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Cowboys are 0-8 ATS this year, joining ’98 Bengals, ’03 Raiders as last teams to start a season 0-8 ATS.

— Eagles won despite turning ball over four times (-2).
— Teams averaged 3.0/3.2 yards/pass attempt. Not good.
— Teams combined to convert 7-24 third down plays.
— At halfway mark of season, 3-4-1 Eagles lead NFC East.

[Udog]

Buccaneers vs. Giants Week 8 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

It's been a week filled with nothing but praise for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as you've got mainstream media outlets putting out pieces like “Why the Buccaneers are the NFL's best team by a mile” and looking over at the situation Tom Brady left in New England and counting on this guy to play forever.

Statistically, the Bucs have been great so far this year and there is no denying that. But we are also just seven games into the year and there is plenty of football left to play. Let's pump the breaks a bit on this prisoner of the moment type mentality.

I mean, Tampa's 5-2 SU, but they were gifted a win against the Chargers when L.A. just completely botched their big lead starting in the final minutes of the 1st half. They beat a Carolina team in their new head coach's first ever career NFL road game (always a great fade spot) and in the infancy stages of a rebuilding program. There was a 28-10 win against a Denver team that ranked 27th in the league at the time in yards per play of offense, and currently ranks 28th in the league in points per game (19.3).

Add in a blowout win over a Raiders team that was dealt a brutal hand late in the week with their positive virus results. There is a case to be made that Tampa's been dealt the best of it more often than not and to their credit have taken full advantage. Not really all that different than what Brady did in New England when he got to beat up on three awful teams twice a year in the AFC East for the bulk of the past decade.

So seven games in, sure, call Tampa Bay the best team in the league by a mile. What does that really matter? Is there some sort of award for that title in this league each week? Who cares who is the best right now other than headline writers and click bait operators.

Yet, here we go again with Tampa getting dealt the best of it. Not only are the 1-6 New York Giants sharing the field with them on Monday night, but just like the Raiders last week, New York got hit with COVID issues late in the week and have had to adjust/pause their preparation accordingly.

Even without that disruption, Tampa Bay was still expected to win this game comfortably, but as I've mentioned numerous times in the past, there comes a point where point spreads simply become too inflated based on the overall perception/belief of a team, and how can a team's spread not get inflated after being called the best team in the league by a mile?

Covering inflated numbers was Brady's specialty in New England though as he consistently found a way to reward Patriots backers or never had any issue with paying that “Patriots tax”. Brady's shifted that tax down to the Sunshine State this year, but the will the results stay the same with bettors comfortably stepping up and paying that “Bucs tax” and still getting rewarded?

Betting Resources

Week 7 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Date: Monday, Nov. 2, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Daniel Jones and the Giants are coming off a one-point loss as New York hosts Tampa Bay on Monday. (AP)

Line Movements

Spread: Tampa Bay -12.5
Money-Line: Tampa Bay -800, New York +550
Total: 45

2020 Betting Stats

Tampa Bay

Overall: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Road: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 31.7 (Rank 3)
Defense PPG: 20.3 (Rank 8)
Offense YPG: 371.9 (Rank 15)
Defense YPG: 291.3 (Rank 3)

New York

Overall: 1-6 SU, 4-3 ATS, 2-5 O/U
Home: 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 17.4 (Rank 31)
Defense PPG: 24.9 (Rank 14)
Offense YPG: 282.4 (Rank 31)
Defense YPG: 356.3 (Rank 13)

Handicapping the Total

Statistically there is plenty to like about Tampa through seven weeks, and I would argue that it's the defense that has been the far better unit overall for this team. They are T-1 in the league in opponent yards per play (4.8), 1st in opponent yards per rush attempt (3.0), and #1 in DVOA as has been heard a lot this week.

Numbers like that from this unit and facing this Giants team that's done next to nothing offensively all year does give this game a huge mismatch feel, but it's not like these stats are a secret and they are already part of the process in oddsmakers putting out the side and total numbers that they do.

At the beginning of the week there was some strong disagreement with the opener on the total as came out at 48 and has only really received 'under' support in large part because of Tampa's defensive metrics.

Change for change sake is needed though as the alternative isn't really any better (in either the football game or political metaphor), but banking on this awful Giants offense to pull more than their own weight in pursuit of potentially cashing an 'over' ticket against “the best team in the league by a mile” is akin to believing the incumbent will all of a sudden stop being as divisive as he is.

Sure, Tampa could do most of the heavy lifting on the scoreboard to help 'over' bettors have hope or even get to the cashier's window ultimately, but if that's the side of the spectrum you land on, isn't backing the Bucs ATS the much better betting option than the total? I would argue that's the case if you do indeed believe this will be a Tampa blowout win.

So passing on having your voice heard in the political realm isn't something anyone should do these days, but passing on this total from both sides is an easy betting decision to make this week.

Head-to-Head History

Sep. 22, 2019 - N.Y. Giants 32 at Tampa Bay 31, Giants +5, Over 48
Nov. 18, 2018 - N.Y. Giants 38 vs. Tampa Bay 35, Push -3, Over 53.5
Oct. 1, 2017 - Tampa Bay 25 vs. N.Y. Giants 23, Giants +2.5, Over 45.5

Handicapping the Side

Passing on the side isn't something I'll be doing here though, as I do believe this spread is one that does look rather inflated. The perception of Tampa Bay is back through the roof as it was when they announced they signed Brady, and while trusting the Giants offense to do enough to help get an 'over' ticket to cash may be tough, trusting this Giants defense to hold on long enough to keep this game within this point spread is far more reasonable.

New York's defense is 12th in opponent yards per play (5.4 – or 0.6 yards worse than Tampa's), and the level of competition may not be there for recent Giants games either, but they have held three of their last four opponents to 22 points or less, and already have three sub-20 point efforts against Washington, LAR, and Chicago this year.

If they are able to hold Tampa's attack to 21 points or so, asking the Giants offense to put up 10-14 points themselves is a far easier proposition to stomach.

Furthermore, this game might not have anything to do with New England, but Giants HC Joe Judge is intimately familiar with Brady and his tendencies. Brady's never liked sharing the field with the Giants in the past, and I would think that Judge has spent some extra time in those defensive meetings this week to help in any way he can. That's an already situation to have on your side when you are catching nearly two full TD's.

Finally, it might not mean a whole lot to some, but Tampa's also in a potential look ahead spot with a SNF showdown with Drew Brees and the Saints on deck.

New Orleans grabbed that first meeting in Week 1 as Brady worked through the kinks in his first game in a different uniform, and with the NFC South a division that's going to be decided between Tampa Bay and New Orleans, it's easy to figure the Bucs might already have one eye on next week. Survive and advance is the mentality there, not necessarily winning by a big margin.

When it comes down to it, I actually believe all this mainstream praise as “being the best” is something that could really come back to bite the Bucs in the ass going forward; at least in the point spread marketplace.

It starts this week with the Giants, but with the rest of Tampa's schedule consisting of games vs New Orleans, at Carolina, vs LAR, vs KC, vs Minnesota, at Atlanta, at Detroit, and at Atlanta after this week, Tampa having a losing ATS record the rest of the way is an interesting proposition I'd only look towards the “yes” on.

The “Buccaneers tax” is only going to get greater with each passing win and news story of praise, and as long as that is the case, and if you want to “crown their ass” now, then go ahead, I'll be patiently waiting to take as many points as I can with Tampa's opponents in the weeks ahead.

Key Injuries

Tampa Bay

none to report

New York

none to report

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 8
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Bengals (+7, ML +260) vs. Titans, 31-20
Vikings (+6, ML +220) at Packers, 28-22
Steelers (+4, ML +175) at Ravens, 28-24
Dolphins (+3.5, ML +155) vs. Rams, 28-17
Broncos (+3, ML +130) vs. Chargers, 31-30

The largest favorites to cover

Chiefs (-19.5) vs. Jets, 35-9
Eagles (-10) vs. Cowboys, 23-9
Colts (-3.5) at Lions, 41-21

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Los Angeles Chargers-Denver Broncos AFC West rivalry has had some amazing finishes over the years. The first installment of this season's series surely didn't disappoint...unless you were holding a Chargers (-3) ticket or a moneyline wager.

QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers fired out to a 24-3 lead midway through the third quarter before Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay galloped for a 55-yard touchdown run to slice the lead to 24-10. Still, anyone backing the Bolts, was feeling pretty good. That Lindsay TD certainly changed the day almost immediately for 'under' (44.5) bettors. It got much worse for the latter - quick.

In the fourth quarter, the Broncos sliced the lead to 24-17 with a nine-yard touchdown pass from QB Drew Lock to TE Albert Okwuegbunam. The Chargers answered back with a field goal with 7:57 to go, making it 27-17. Under bettors couldn't allow another point, but that was quickly dashed just 27 seconds later when Lock hit WR DaeSean Hamilton for a 40-yard scoring strike. Suddenly, Bolts side bettors were feeling the pinch, too. PK Michael Badgley booted a 33-yard field with 2:30 left in regulation to give Chargers side bettors hope. However, rookie WR KJ Hamler reeled in a 1-yard scoring strike from Lock with zeroes on the clock, and the extra point won it for Denver, 31-30. The only time Denver had been ahead was 3-0. Moneyline bettors and side bettors are feeling awfully sick after this one.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The San Francisco 49ers-Seattle Seahawks game was well decided by the end of the third quarter. The Seahawks (-1) were leading 27-7 after 45 minutes, and it appeared side bettors were going to cruise to a winning ticket. The Seahawks added a field goal to go up 30-7 with 14:07 to go in the fourth quarter. However, a pair of touchdowns cut the lead to 30-20 with 4:16 left in regulation. RB DeeJay Dallas punched in a 1-yard touchdown to make it 37-20, putting side bettors minds at ease. However, that touchdown ended up pushing the total 'over' (54.5). The game ended up with a total of 64 points, but there was 30 total points in the final 14:07.

Total Recall

The lowest totals on the board on the Sunday slate were the New England Patriots-Buffalo Bills (41) and the New Orleans Saints-Chicago Bears (41) contests.

The Patriots-Bills game had a total of just 13 points on the board at halftime, and the 'under' was easily trending after 30 minutes. There were a total of just 20 points on the board until a touchdown and two-point conversion by the Pats with 3:03 to go in the third quarter to make it 14-14. A pair of two-yard touchdown runs by each of the quarterbacks made it a 21-21 game, and barring overtime, and a scoreless one at that, the 'over' was in the bag. And a PK Tyler Bass 28-yard field goal with 4:06 left in regulation gave the home side the 24-21 win. No overtime needed.

The Saints-Bears matchup was a field goal fest through 45 minutes. We had just two total touchdowns on the board with five field goals through 45 minutes, as the Saints clinged to a 16-13 lead. 'Under' bettors were hanging on, with New Orleans leading 23-13 with just under four minutes to go. But QB Nick Foles hit WR Darnell Mooney on a 3-yard scoring strike to make it 23-20. That was all total bettors needed to see.

The highest number on the board was the 49ers-Seahawks game (54.5), and we touched on how that one ended up above. We also had three games with a total of 49. The Indianapolis Colts-Detroit Lions, New York Jets-Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans-Cincinnati Bengals saw the 'over' cash in two of those three outings. The Chiefs did their part to hit the 'over', scoring 35 points, but the Jets could muster just nine total points in the loss.

In the first two primetime games of Week 8, the under went 2-0, with the Monday night game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants pending. The Atlanta Falcons-Carolina Panthers (52) gave was on pace for an 'over' result, with 30 points on the board at half time. But we saw two field goals and a touchdown with a failed two-point conversion in the final 30 minutes, and that was all. The Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles (43) Sunday night affair looked more like a preseason game. It was ugly. Third-string QB Ben DiNucci made his first NFL start in place of the injured QBs Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton, and the visitors actually held a 9-7 lead at halftime. It was all Philly in the final 30, scoring a touchdown, two-point conversion, a touchdown and missed two-point conversion and a safety, while the Cowboys were blanked. Philadelphia won it 23-9, and the 'over' was never threatened at any point.

So far this season the under is 16-9 (64.0%) across 25 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 9

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Packers are licking their wounds after a 28-22 at home against the Vikings, head coach Matt LaFleur's first loss in the NFC North Division since taking over before the 2019 season (8-1). Now, it's a quick turnaround for QB Aaron Rodgers and the boys, and they might be catching a break. While the 49ers had a spirited comeback in Seattle, it might have come with a cost. QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) limped to the locker room early in the fourth quarter, replaced by QB Nick Mullens, while the team also saw RB Tevin Coleman, WR Dante Pettis and TE George Kittle leave the game for good. It's uncertain how much the lopsided score at the time played in their leaving, whether it was a precaution with a lopsided score and quick turnaround, or if the injuries are serious. The Niners are a difficult bunch to figure, as they won as home 'dogs against the Rams in Week 7, but lost as home favorites against the Eagles and Dolphins in Weeks 4-5.They're 1-3 SU/ATS in four games at Levi's Stadium, including 0-3 ATS as a home favorite. The Packers are 3-1 SU/ATS in four games on the road this season.

New York Giants at Washington Football Team (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Giants picked up their only victory of the season in a 20-19 win over the Washington Football Team in Week 6 as two-point favorites, failing to cover. The 'under' hit in that one, and is 5-2 in seven games overall for Big Blue. For Washington, they had their most complete game of the season before the bye, roughing up the Dallas Cowboys by a 25-3 score in Week 7 as a one-point underdog. The 'under' hit in that one, too, and is a perfect 3-0 for Washington over the past three.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The Raiders won 16-6 in the wind and occasional snow on the shores of Lake Erie in Cleveland, hitting a rare 'under' result. The Raiders were the only team in the AFC yet to see an under, going 5-0-1 prior to Sunday. It's uncertain what happened to the Chargers defense, but it's not good. After a 3-0 'under' run to start the season, with the offense averaging 17.3 PPG and the defense allowing 19.0 PPG, we have seen the offense score 31, 27, 39 and 30 across the past four, while allowing 38, 30, 29 and 31. It's like a tale of two seasons for the Chargers. Herbert and the offense is growing into a formidable force, but the defense suddenly doesn't feel it has to be perfect and has been way more giving.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Patriots head into this Monday night affair with a 2-5 SU record. That's shocking, as they are now 3 1/2 games back of the first-place Bills, who just edged them 24-21 in Week 8 in windy Buffalo. QB Cam Newton was a little better, but still not good enough, and now the heat will get turned up even more on his seat. Some fans are calling for QB Jarrett Stidham to get the starting nod for the MNF game, and what better place than facing the lowly Jets. On a positive note, the Patriots did cover for the first time since Sept. 28, snapping an 0-3 ATS skid. And the 'over' result against the Bills also pumped the brakes on a 3-0 'under' run. The winless Jets were 19.5-point underdogs on the road against the Chiefs, but they hung in there, down just 21-9 at halftime, and 28-9 after three quarters. But they were unable to hang on for the cover. The 'under' did connect for the fourth straight game for Gang Green, as they have scored 10, 0, 10 and 9 across the past four games, or an average of 7.3 PPG.

[Udog]

NFL odds Week 9: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Drew Brees and the Saints barely escaped Chicago with a 26-23 overtime victory against the Bears. Next up for New Orleans is a trip to Tampa Bay, where The SuperBook has the Buccaneers -4.5.

NFL Week 8 is just about in the rearview mirror, with NFL Week 9 odds on the betting board and already getting some action. The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers collide under the Thursday night lights, and the Sunday nighter pits the New Orleans Saints against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 9 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 9 odds

These are the current NFL Week 9 odds, as of November 1.



Teams on bye: Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals

Packers at 49ers odds
Opening line
49ers +2.5, Over/Under 50.5

Why the line moved
"We opened Packers -2.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The public will be all over the Packers here. They’ll fall in love with the cheap road favorite, especially after seeing the 49ers get rolled today." Indeed, San Francisco went to Seattle as a 1-point underdog and trailed 30-7 in the fourth quarter, though the Niners rallied to make it respectable in a 37-27 loss.

Seahawks at Bills odds
Opening line
Bills +3, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
The Seahawks, coming off a nice win over the 49ers, opened -3 (even) and stuck there Sunday night for this cross-country trek to Buffalo next weekend.

"This will be one of our most one-sided games on Sunday," Murray said. "Buffalo is 6-2, but really hasn’t been that impressive. Seattle rolled again today. This will be a huge-need game for us on Sunday."

Broncos at Falcons odds
Opening line
Falcons -4.5, Over/Under 47.5

Why the line moved
The Broncos trailed the Chargers 24-3 midway through the third quarter Sunday, but rallied for a 31-30 victory, capped by a touchdown on the game's last play. Atlanta notched a 25-17 win at Carolina in the Week 8 Thursday nighter, so the Falcons will have a little more rest this week. There was no movement on the line or the total Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Bears at Titans odds
Opening line
Titans -6.5, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved
"We opened Titans -6.5 and took some money on the Bears, and moved down to 6," Murray said. "All of a sudden, the Titans are on a losing skid, and we know the Bears are almost always a popular betting option with the public. This may be that rare game where we need the favorite."

Lions at Vikings odds
Opening line
Vikings -3.5, Over/Under 53.5

Why the line moved
Minnesota snagged a nice 28-22 upset win at Green Bay on Sunday, while Detroit got rolled at home 41-21 by Indianapolis. The SuperBook opened the Vikings -3.5 and the total 53.5, and there was no movement Sunday night.

Ravens at Colts odds
Opening line
Colts +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened the Ravens -2.5 and quickly moved to -3," Murray said. "Interesting game. We’ve really only seen Baltimore beat bad teams. And the Ravens just lost Ronnie Stanley for the year."

Stanley, Baltimore's All-Pro left tackle, suffered a broken left ankle in Sunday's 28-24 home loss to Pittsburgh.

"The Colts are quietly 5-2 and probably should be 6-1," Murray said. "Look for the public to back the Ravens, but they’ll be more hesitant to jump in on this one than they are with the Packers and Seahawks."

Panthers at Chiefs odds
Opening line
Chiefs -11.5, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
Kansas City went off as a 19.5-point home favorite against the New York Jets on Sunday, the largest spread so far this season, and coasted to a 35-9 win and cover. Carolina lost at home to Atlanta 25-17 as a short fave in the Thursday nighter. So it's no surprise that Murray & Co. opened the Chiefs -11.5. There was no movement Sunday night on the line or the total.

Texans at Jaguars odds
Opening line
Jaguars +7, Over/Under 51.5

Why the line moved

Both these teams are coming off a bye, and both needed it: Houston is 1-6 SU and ATS, and Jacksonville is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. The first move on this game was toward the home 'dog, with the Jaguars moving to +6.5 Sunday night. The total was stable at 51.5.

Giants at Washington odds
Opening line
Washington -3, Over/Under 43

Why the line moved
New York is 1-6 SU, Washington is 2-5 SU—and they're both in the hunt for a division title in the awful NFC East. The SuperBook moved Washington to -3.5 Sunday night, while the total stuck at 43.

Raiders at Chargers odds
Opening line
Chargers -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Las Vegas ground out a 16-6 win at Cleveland on Sunday, while Los Angeles blew a 24-3 lead at Denver and lost 31-30. So bettors quickly cut this spread in half Sunday night, with the Chargers dropping to -1.5 at The SuperBook.

"We did take some Raiders money, and that line was put up before yet another epic Chargers collapse," Murray said.

Steelers at Cowboys odds
Opening line
Off, Over/Under Off

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh rallied from a 17-7 halftime deficit to beat Baltimore 28-24 on the road Sunday, while Dallas and third-string QB Ben DiNucci lost at Philadelphia 23-9 in the Sunday nighter. Murray said The SuperBook held off posting the Steelers-Cowboys line, waiting for clarity on whether Andy Dalton (concussion) returns at QB or if the rookie DiNucci is again the starter.

Regardless, the Steelers will likely be laying double digits. Murray said the line will be in the range of Pittsburgh -10 if Dalton starts for Dallas and Pittsburgh -13 if DiNucci starts.

Dolphins at Cardinals odds
Opening line
Cardinals -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Arizona had a bye this week, and perhaps that was fortuitous, as there were reports Sunday that two players tested positive for COVID-19 this weekend. That news broke after The SuperBook posted the opening number of Cardinals -5.5, and the book then took the game off the board while awaiting clarity on the situation. Miami, behind rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa, is coming off a solid 28-17 home win over the Los Angeles Rams.

Saints at Bucs odds
Opening line
Buccaneers -4.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
New Orleans blew a 20-3 lead but got out of Chicago with a 26-23 overtime victory Sunday, while Tampa Bay still has Week 8 work to do in the Monday nighter at the New York Giants.

"We opened Bucs -4.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The Saints seem to barely escape week after week. Drew Brees can’t throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field. I think the public will bet the Bucs pretty hard here, especially if they roll the Giants on Monday night."

The total was also stable Sunday night at 54.5.

Patriots at Jets odds
Opening line
Jets +7.5, Over/Under 41

Why the line moved
Post-Tom Brady, New England is a shell of itself, with a 2-5 SU record (3-4 ATS) after Sunday's 24-21 loss at Buffalo. But New York is the worst team in the league, at 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS. It's not much of a marquee Monday night matchup, but The SuperBook opened the Patriots -7.5 and the total 41, with no movement Sunday night.

[Udog]

NFL betting tips for Week 9: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Las Vegas Raiders picked up an ugly 16-6 win at Cleveland in Week 8 but it was a serious character victory for Vegas, playing in an early 1 p.m. ET start in wind, rain and snow. Vegas is seeing early action versus the Chargers in Week 9.

By Week 9 of the NFL schedule, books and bettors are supposed to have a solid grasp on the contenders and pretenders. However, in this wonderful and whacky 2020 season, NFL betting has proven even more challenging with teams trying on both of those hats over the past eight weeks.

The best NFL betting strategy in all this madness is to get the best of the number for your wager. With the NFL Week 9 odds fresh out of the oven, here are our NFL betting tips for the spreads and totals to bet now and the ones to bet later.

Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers: Bet Now

This AFC West spread opened as big as Bolts -2.5 and is quickly moving towards pick’em after another classic Chargers’ collapse against the Broncos Sunday. Los Angeles is now 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS against divisional foes since 2019.

The Raiders are coming off an ugly 16-6 win on the road in Cleveland, but that victory came in a 1 p.m. ET start (normally kryptonite for this franchise) and in less-than Las Vegas conditions (wind, rain, snow). The Silver and Black have played their best football away from the fancy new Sin City Stadium, going 3-1 SU and ATS on the road this year.

If you believe in the Silver and Black or just can’t bear another bad beat from the Bolts, snatch up Las Vegas and as many points as you can now before this line jumps the fence.

Detroit Lions (+3) at Minnesota Vikings: Bet Later

These NFC North foes were headed in different directions until Week 8, when the Vikings stunned the Packers at Lambeau and the Lions laid a big stinky egg hosting the Colts. This spread opened at the customary field goal for a divisional rivalry, but Minnesota -3 is now heavily juiced and a half-point hook is on the way.

Detroit laid down for a lot of points versus the Colts, however, the game can really be boiled down to a Matt Stafford strip-sack in the fourth quarter, which broke the Lions' back and erased any chance of a comeback. It snapped a two-game winning streak by Detroit, which had also won and covered in three of its last four.

The Vikings picked up just their second victory of the season in Week 8 and are now ripe for a major letdown spot after winning at Lambeau Field for the first time since 2017. Minnesota is the poster child for inconsistency, so if you like the Lions you may want to wait it out and get that oh-so valuable half-point at +3.5.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (Under 45): Bet Now

Something is rotten in Raventown. Baltimore’s once-mighty offense is bringing up the rear in passing yards and reigning MVP Lamar Jackson has looked plain pedestrian over the past four games, struggling with accuracy and boasting a TD-to-INT count of 7-to-4 after tossing 36 touchdowns to only six interceptions in 2019.

On top of Jackson’s woes, the Ravens’ rushing attack could be missing a few gears with RB Mark Ingram a big question mark for Week 9 (ankle) and standout left tackle Ronnie Stanley lost for the season (broken ankle). Baltimore visits one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses in the Colts, who regained some clout on that side of the ball with a 41-21 win over Detroit on Sunday—forcing three fumbles (recovering one) and scoring a pick-6 to put the Lions away.

The total opened as high as 46.5 points Sunday night and quickly started ticking down with one-sided action on the Under. This total is at 45 as of late Sunday night but some books have taxed the Under to -115. If you like a low-scoring finish in Indy, bet this Under at the key number now.

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills (Over 51): Bet Later

Had this game been scheduled four weeks ago, this total may have flirted with 60 points. And while the Seahawks have kept their scoring output redlining through seven games (34.1 points per game—No. 1 in NFL) the Bills have not, suffering a major drop-off in scoring the past four games. Buffalo has averaged only 18.75 points since Week 5.

If there ever was a team to get right against, it’s Seattle. This defense sits dead last in total yards allowed and has given up 29 passing plays of 20 or more yards, and seven of 40-plus. That’s just what Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and this receiving corps need to get their long-bomb groove back.

The Over/Under for this non-conference clash opened as high as 54.5 at some books but a market correction swiftly trimmed 1.5 off the top and then money on the Under booked it down to 51. If you expect the return of the Bills’ big plays and Russell Wilson to be Russell Wilson, wait to see how low this number goes before banging the Over gong.