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**Udog** · 10-27-2020, 10:53 AM

Betting Recap - Week 7
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Cardinals (+3.5, ML +160) vs. Seahawks, 37-34 (OT)
49ers (+3, ML +140) at Patriots, 33-6

The largest favorites to cover

Chargers (-7.5) vs. Jaguars, 39-29
Chiefs (-7) at Broncos, 43-16

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Pittsburgh Steelers-Tennessee Titans battle certainly lived up to the hype. It was an AFC battle of unbeatens, and at first it looked like it was going to be a blowout, Pittsburgh style. The Steelers fired out to a 14-0 lead, and they held a 24-7 advantage at the break. They tacked on a 30-yard Chris Boswell field goal early in the third quarter to make it 27-7, but that's when the Steelers bogged down on offense and were unable to produce anymore offense.

The Titans made a furious comeback. WR A.J. Brown struck 50 seconds after Boswell's field goal for a 73-yard touchdown, cutting the lead to 27-14. A field goal from Stephen Gostkowski with 2:55 left in the third from 51 yards out made it 27-17 after 45 minutes. Over (51) bettors looked to be in good shape heading into the fourth quarter, and Titans (+1, ML +105) side bettors were perking up as well. With 10:13 to go in regulation, Derrick Henry punched one in from 1-yard out to make it 27-24. However, much to the dismay of over bettors, there was no more scoring in the remainder of the game. Gostkowski misfired on a 45-yard field goal attempt with 19 seconds remaining, which would have inched the total over the line. In addition, moneyline bettors and side bettors for the Titans must've felt like they were losing twice. A trip to overtime could have potentially changed the day.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Detroit Lions-Atlanta Falcons game was a memorable one, and not many people would've expected that going in. It was 14-13 after three quarters, and while it was close, it wasn't terribly exciting. Then the fourth quarter took place.

If you're a Falcons (-1) side bettor, you're absolutely sick about this result. The Lions ended up winning 23-22 with a touchdown with zeroes on the clock, stunning Atlanta. However, that would be bad enough on a normal day under normal circumstances, but this situation should have never come to be.

With 1:04 remaining in regulation, the Falcons picked up a key first down, positioning themselves for a chip-shot, game-winning field goal, which would have made it 17-16. The Lions were out of timeouts, so they allowed Todd Gurley to score from 10 yards out. He remembered at the last second that he wasn't supposed to score, but couldn't stop his momentum and broke the plane. That made it 20-16, and they tacked on a two-point conversion to go ahead by six. However, if they would have just taken a knee, they could have run the clock down and left no time after the field goal. Matthew Stafford and company took advantage.

The Lions drove the field, tying it with no time left on a strike from Stafford to T.J. Hockenson from 11 yards out. All that was needed was a Matt Prater extra point, and he stuck it, giving Detroit a miraculous 23-22 victory.

Total Recall

The lowest totals on the board on the Sunday slate were the San Francisco 49ers-New England Patriots (44.5) game, followed by the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Football Team (45) contests.

The Patriots were never able to get untracked, as the 49ers fired out to a 23-3 lead at halftime, and they never looked back. Cam Newton was mistake-prone, and the New England offense could only produce two field goals. The 49ers picked up the 33-6 road victory, and 'over' bettors were a little disappointed with just three points in the fourth quarter.

In the Cowboys game, QB Andy Dalton was knocked out of the game due to a head/neck injury, so seventh-round draft pick QB Ben DiNucci was thrust into action. The Cowboys offense was dumbed down even more, and the second half resembled a preseason game for the Cowboys. Sadly, they're still only a half-game back of the first-place Philadelphia Eagles with a trip to Lincoln Financial Field on the slate for Week 8. Anyway, the Cowboys mustered just three points, and the Washington offense posted a total of 22 points, as the 'under' easily cashed.

The highest number on the board was Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (56) battle. This NFC West showdown didn't disappoint. The teams combined for 71 points, and only the third quarter saw fewer than 17 points. QBs Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray put on a show for the national audience, and the total was the first over of the season for the Cardinals against five under results. Arizona entered the day as the only NFL team without an over.

In the two primetime games, the over and under split 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams still pending.

So far this season the under is 13-9 (59.1%) across 22 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 8

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Falcons keep finding new ways to lose. They have blown fourth-quarter leads against the Cowboys, Bears and Lions, and could easily be 4-3 instead of 1-6. That's how close the margin of error is in the NFL. They get a rematch with the Panthers on Thursday. They fell 23-16 at home against Carolina, losing outright as 2.5-point favorites in a game which Julio Jones missed due to injury. The under has cashed in three of the past four outings for Atlanta, including that first meeting with the Panthers. Carolina enters the Week 7 game at New Orleans with a 4-0 under streak before hitting the over against the Saints. Carolina covered, too, and they're now 4-1 ATS in their past five overall.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Chiefs opened as 21-point favorites against the Jets in the 'Le'Veon Bell Bowl'. Dating back to the 2003 NFL season, we've had just five teams favored by 21 or more points. Last season the Miami Dolphins went to Dallas as 22-point underdogs, and the Cowboys covered the number, 31-6. However, since the start of the 2003 campaign, favorites of 20 or more points are 1-3 ATS. New York heads into this one just 1-5 ATS in the past six on the road, 1-5 ATS in the past six as an underdog and 5-17-1 ATS in the past 23 on a grass surface. On the flip side, the Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in the pat four against losing teams, and they're 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 at home. They're also 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 as a favorite, too. The game has since moved down to 20.5, so early bettors are actually...gulp...trusting the Jets?

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The unbeaten Steelers put their unblemished record on the line against the Ravens in a battle for AFC North supremacy. Not only are the Steelers 6-0 SU, but they have covered four in a row, and five of six overall. Baltimore will be coming off a bye, so they'll be well rested and any injured players will have gotten over their early-season bumps and bruises. While the Ravens enter on a three-game winning streak, and they're 5-1 SU, Baltimore is just 1-3 ATS across the past four. The Ravens swept the Steelers last season, winning 26-23 in overtime in Pittsburgh in Week 5, while topping the Steelers 28-10 in the regular-season finale. Pittsburgh did win in Baltimore as recently as Nov. 4, 2018.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Buccaneers travel to meet the Giants in a Monday Night battle. It's QB Tom Brady against his Super Bowl nemesis, but these G-Men aren't the same ones he faced for all the marbles. And he is wearing new threads now, too. Still, you know that will be the storyline, as the TV people need something to put lipstick on this pig. Tampa rolled over Las Vegas on the road, winning 45-20 as 3.5-point favorites, the second consecutive blowout win. Just last week they polished off the Green Bay Packers by a 38-10 score. The Bucs offense has posted 31, 28, 38, 19, 38 and 45 in the past six outings, as Brady now looks comfortable, and the Patriots are probably wishing him back right about now.

**Udog** · 10-27-2020, 10:53 AM

NFL odds Week 8: Opening lines, line movement
Patrick Everson

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are coming off a bye as they host the division rival Steelers in Week 8. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Baltimore -6 and moved to -5.5 late Sunday evening.

NFL Week 7 is almost behind us, with NFL Week 8 odds on the betting board and already seeing movement. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens do battle in the AFC North, and the San Francisco 49ers face the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West clash.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 8 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 8 odds

These are the current NFL Week 8 odds, as of October 26.

Teams on bye: Washington Football Team, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals

Falcons at Panthers odds
Opening line
Panthers -3, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
The bottom two in the NFC South get an early jump on Week 8 in the Thursday night game. Carolina opened -3 at The SuperBook, and there was no movement Sunday night.

Colts at Lions odds
Opening line
Colts +2.5, Over/Under 50.5

Why the line moved
Detroit scored a touchdown on the final play Sunday to steal a 23-22 victory at Atlanta, the Lions' third win in their last four games. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is coming off its bye week. The Colts opened as 2.5-point road chalk, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Vikings at Packers odds
Opening line
Packers -7.5, Over/Under 55

Why the line moved
Minnesota is coming off a much-needed bye, with a 1-5 record after providing Atlanta its only win of the season in Week 6. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay rebounded from a Tampa Bay beatdown by topping Houston 35-20 on the road Sunday. The SuperBook opened the Packers -7.5, and that line ticked to -7 Sunday night.

Patriots at Bills odds
Opening line
Bills -3.5, Over/Under 44

Why the line moved
New England has a combined 18 points over its last two games, both home losses, including Sunday's 33-6 blasting at the hands of San Francisco. So although Buffalo was no great shakes in an 18-10 road win over the hapless New York Jets, The SuperBook opened the Bills -3.5 and quickly moved to -4 Sunday night.

"There were a number of voices in the room that wanted to open it higher," Murray said Sunday night. "The Patriots are a mess right now, coming off back-to-back home losses against the Broncos and 49ers. The Bills aren’t great by any means, but they are the class of the division and could take a stranglehold on the AFC East with a win here."

Titans at Bengals odds
Opening line
Bengals +3.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
Tennessee made a nice comeback that fell just short against Pittsburgh on Sunday, the Titans' first loss of the year. Cincinnati scored late to take the lead at home against Cleveland, but gave up a TD in the waning seconds to lose 37-34. The Titans opened -3.5 at The SuperBook and ticked to -4 Sunday night.

Raiders at Browns odds
Opening line
Browns -3, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
Cleveland eked out a final-seconds 37-34 victory at Cincinnati on Sunday, but lost star wideout Odell Beckham Jr. to a knee injury, possibly for the season. Still, The SuperBook opened the Browns -3 against Las Vegas, which got outscored 21-3 in the fourth quarter of a 45-20 loss to visiting Tampa Bay.

"This feels like the kind of game where the Raiders surprise everyone and go on the road and scratch out a win," Murray said Sunday night. "Their loss today was closer than the final score indicated, and the Browns (likely) lost Odell Beckham Jr. for the year. Tough spot for Cleveland, off that great win in Cincinnati."

Jets at Chiefs odds
Opening line
-21.5, Over/Under 49

Why the line moved
The Jets are the last winless team in the NFL this season, at 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS), though they finally covered Sunday in an 18-10 loss to Buffalo as 10-point home underdogs. Defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City is 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) and ripped host Denver 43-16 in the snow Sunday. So this game has a monster spread, the largest of this NFL season.

"We opened Chiefs -21.5 and were bet down to -20.5," Murray said. "I know everyone will want to talk about this game, but it’s really a pretty simple one. How much will the Chiefs care? Sure, they could win by more than this spread, but will they even bother to? Will they play Patrick Mahomes in the second half if they are up by 21 at halftime?

"I don’t know why they would. A big number like this will scare a lot of people off. They’ll look for somewhere else to invest their dollars."

Rams at Dolphins odds
Opening line
Dolphins +3.5, Over/Under 49

Why the line moved
Los Angeles still has Week 7 work to do in the Monday nighter against visiting Chicago, while Miami is coming off a bye. The Rams opened 3.5-point road favorites, with no line movement Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Saints at Bears odds
Opening line
Bears +2, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved
New Orleans hung on to edge visiting Carolina 27-24 Sunday, while Chicago is in the Week 7 Monday nighter at the Los Angeles Rams.

"We moved from Saints -2 to -2.5 quickly," Murray said. "This line may move off Monday night’s Bears-Rams game. The Saints continue to underwhelm. They’re just barely getting by week to week, even when they run into mediocre opposition."

49ers at Seahawks odds
Opening line
Seahawks -3.5, Over/Under 54

Why the line moved
The SuperBook opened this NFC West clash at Seahawks -3.5, then the game came off the board once Seattle kicked off its Week 7 Sunday night game at Arizona. The game will go back up Monday morning.

"The 49ers crushed the Rams and Patriots on back-to-back weekends, and their power rating is starting to creep up toward where it was preseason," Murray said. "They could be a force later in the year, if they can stay relatively healthy."

Cowboys at Eagles odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF

Why the line moved
As if Dallas didn't have enough injury issues, most notably losing quarterback Dak Prescott (ankle) for the season, now backup Andy Dalton's status is uncertain. Dalton suffered a concussion in the third quarter of an embarrassing 25-3 loss at Washington.

Murray said The SuperBook kept this matchup off the board Sunday night, waiting for clarity on who the Cowboys will have under center.

Buccaneers at Giants odds
Opening line
Giants +10, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved
Tampa Bay is atop the NFC South at 5-2 (4-3 ATS), while New York is at the bottom of the NFC East at 1-6 (4-3 ATS). So The SuperBook opened the Bucs 10-point favorites in the Week 8 Monday night game, with no early line movement.

Chargers at Broncos odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved
Denver got throttled at home 43-16 by Kansas City on Sunday, while Los Angeles claimed a 39-29 home win over Jacksonville. The SuperBook figured it was a coin toss and opened at pick, and the Chargers moved to -1.5 by late Sunday evening.

Steelers at Ravens odds
Opening line
Ravens -6, Over/Under 48

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh is 6-0 SU and a stout 5-1 ATS, as well, while Baltimore (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) has only a loss to Kansas City. The Ravens are coming off a bye and playing at home in this 1 p.m. ET Sunday clash.

"We opened the Ravens up at -6 in what really should be the Sunday Night Football game next week," Murray said, noting that the line dipped a notch to Ravens -5.5. "This is a great matchup, and we get it again on Thanksgiving night. It’s also a great handle game. The Ravens will get a ton of support on the point spread and in moneyline parlays, but I also expect there to be a lot of takers on the Steelers. They are undefeated and have a huge following."

**Udog** · 10-27-2020, 10:54 AM

NFL betting tips for Week 8: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The New England Patriots offense has scored a grand total of just 28 points overt their last three games and face another struggling offense in Buffalo in Week 8.

It’s hard to believe that Sunday’s NFL Week 8 games will be played on November 1.

This is the time of the year in which teams either go all in on the playoff push or start wondering if its worth it. And with the difficulties of the COVID-19-influenced season, I expect losing teams to start giving less of a crap even sooner into the schedule than normal.

The best NFL betting strategy through it all is getting the better of the numbers. These are our NFL betting tips for the Week 8 odds to bet now and bet later.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3): Bet Now

The Browns follow their thrilling win over the rival Bengals on Sunday as 3-point home chalk hosting the Raiders in Week 8. Books opened Cleveland as a field-goal favorite Sunday night and already some shops are dealing the half-point hook on the host.

The early money is buying into the Browns, who didn’t look that great in Sunday’s win against Cincinnati. Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield had a bad start to the game but got right to the tune of five touchdown passes. That effort, which included a last-second touchdown, was enough to give the Browns their fifth win of the season.

Las Vegas got shelled by Tampa Bay at home in Week 7, allowing Tom Brady and the Buccos to post 45 points – 21 of those in the fourth quarter. The Silver and Black are one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing almost 33 points per game. That’s a touch worse than Cleveland's stop unit, which is serving up 31.6 points per outing.

If you’re banking on the Browns, get them now at the clean field goal and avoid that nasty half-point hook in a game that could go either way, considering the defenses involved.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3): Bet Later

Most books opened the Falcons as heavily-juiced 3-point underdogs Sunday evening, with the points coming with a -120 price tag for Thursday Night Football. The lookahead line for this NFC South showdown was at Panthers -2.5 last week and that looks like where it’s headed considering the early movement for the vig.

Carolina dropped its second straight game in a 27-24 loss at New Orleans, but covered as a touchdown road dog. The Panthers have been competitive in just about every game this season, with an average margin of -0.9 through seven games. This offense, which has overperformed, could have superstar RB Christian McCaffrey back for Thursday too.

The Falcons “Falcon’d” themselves again versus Detroit in Week 7. Atlanta had the game in hand, but an ill-timed touchdown gave the ball back to the Lions in the waning seconds of the fourth quarter and… well, you know how these end for the Falcons.

I’m a little surprised Carolina -3 is discounted, but wait it out and see if -2.5 shows up between now and when McCaffrey’s status is updated.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Under 45): Bet Now

Yeesh, when the Bills aren’t scoring 30 points a game, they’re one bad football team. The high-flying Buffalo offense has been grounded the past three games, with the team combining for just 51 points over that span – compared to 123 points totaled in the first four games of the schedule.

The Patriots are also going through an offensive crisis, with a combined outpouring of 28 points in their last three contests – including scoring just six in Sunday’s home ass-waxing at the hands of the 49ers. It’s like New England’s offense hasn’t come out of quarantine since the team’s COVID-19 outbreak in early October.

The total for this AFC East grudge match hit the board at 46 points Sunday night and was a favorite play of sharp bettors right away, dropping to 45 in about an hour. These divisional foes are a collective 0-5-1 Over/Under in their last six contests and have gone Under in six of their last nine meetings overall. If you’re on that Under bandwagon, take the U45 now before it sinks even lower.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Under 49): Bet Later

Given the firepower on both sides and the way the 2020 season is bursting with points like a freshly whacked pinata, seeing this total below 50 is a bit surprising. That may be the early narrative as well, with some books tacking on a half-point move to 49.5.

Pittsburgh is unblemished and coming off a high-scoring thriller against Tennessee in which it scored 27 points but only three of those came in the second half. The Steelers offense stalled like a 1997 Toyota Tercel on a cold Pennsylvania morning and can thank the defense for keeping the Titans at bay down the stretch (and also thank Stephen Gostkowski for missing a game-tying 45-yarder in the final seconds).

The Ravens offense is chewing up the gains on the ground – big surprise – but Lamar Jackson has struggled to throw the football – big surprise (no really) – with a passer rating of 99.2 (compared to 113.3 last year). Baltimore is averaging almost 30 points per game but has played plenty of pedestrian defenses along the way.

These heated rivals have gone Over in their last two meetings, but those totals were almost laughable at 44 and 38 points (HA!). Before those results, the Steelers and Ravens played below the total in six of their previous eight encounters. If you like another Under, hold your horses and wait to see how high this Week 8 O/U goes.

**Udog** · 10-27-2020, 10:58 AM

Tech Trends - Week 8
Bruce Marshall

Week 8 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 29 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Oct. 29

ATLANTA at CAROLINA

Falcons romped in both meetings LY, but Panthers have covered 4 of last 5 after Saints result.
Carolina 1-5-1 vs. line last seven in Charlotte (1-2 for Rhule).
Falcs actually 6-1 vs. line last seven away.

Tech Edge: Slight to Falcons, based on team trends

Sunday, Nov. 1

INDIANAPOLIS at DETROIT

Colts 1-2 vs. line away in 2020, 2-5 last seven vs. spread on road.
Lions “over” 8-1 last nine at Ford Field.

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Lions, based on “totals” and team trends.

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY

Pack has covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series, including 43-34 win opening week.
GB also 8-3 vs. line last 11 at Lambeau.
Vikes “over” 4-2 in 2020, and 12-5 “over” last 17 reg.-season games.

Tech Edge: Packers and “over,” based on team, series, and “totals” trends.

NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO

Belichick has only lost SU to Bills three times in last 33 meetings, one of those in last reg-season game, another with Jacoby Brissett at QB.
Pats 5-2 vs. line last seven reg season meetings.
As a dog, Belichick 14-4 since 2010.
Bills only 4-8 vs. line last 12 on board.
“Under” 7-4 last 11 meetings.

Tech Edge: Patriots and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

TENNESSEE at CINCINNATI

Tannehill 14-5 SU since becoming starting QB for Titans.
Tenn no covers last three away in 2020 but had covered five straight on road prior.
Tannehill also “over” 14-4-1 in his starts.
Cincy has only lost once vs. spread in 2010 (5-1-1)

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

LAS VEGAS at CLEVELAND

Raiders “over” 5-0-1 in 2020.
Browns “over” 5-2 in 2020 and 8-3 “over” last 11 since late 2019.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on”totals” trends.

N.Y. JETS at KANSAS CITY

Jets 0-7 and 1-6 vs. line in 2020 (first cover of season last week vs. Bills), and 3-9 vs. spread last 11 since late 2019.
Chiefs 3-1 last four as DD chalk and 14-2 last 16 overall on line.
Jets also “under” 10-3 last 13 since late 2019.

Tech Edge: Chiefs and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

L.A. RAMS at MIAMI

Rams 7-1 vs. spread in early Eastern Time or London kickoffs under McVay since 2017.
LA 11-5 vs. spread last 16 away from home since late 2018.
Dolphins “over” 5-2 last seven as host, Rams “over” 4-2 last six away.

Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.

PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE

After Tenn win, Tomlin 11-2 as underdog since 2018.
Note Ravens just 6-6 vs. spread last 12 as host.
Ravens on 8-4 “under” run since late 2019, Steel “under” 8-1 last nine away.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Steelers, based on “totals” and team trends.

NEW ORLEANS at CHICAGO

Saints covered last seven on road in 2019 and now 8-1 last 9 vs. points as visitor.
Prior to Monday at rams, Bears 4-1 SU and vs. line as dog this season.
Saints also “over” 7-2 last nine away and “over” 8-1 last nine since late 2019, though Bears “under” 13-8 since 2019 prior to Rams game.

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Saints, based on “totals” and team trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE

“Overs” last four meetings.
Niners 9-2 vs. spread as visitor since LY (3-0 in 2020), also covers in last seven as a dog.
Hawks 2-1 vs. line at home in 2020 but close shaves vs. Pats and Cowboys, and just 5-9 vs. number last 14 at CenturyLink.

Tech Edge: 49ers and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

L.A. CHARGERS at DENVER

Broncos swept Bolts last season for first time since 2015.
Bolts on 5-1 spread uptick in 2020, Denver 12-6 spread uptick since mid-2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Broncos, based on team and recent series trends.

DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA

Cowboys 0-7 vs. line TY, 2-10 last 12 on board since late 2019.
Dallas also no covers last five away.
Birds however just 2-7 vs. line last nine at Linc.
Cowboys “over” 12-7 last 18 since early 2019, Birds “over” 7-4 last 11 reg season games.

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Eagles, based on “totals” and team trends.

Monday, Nov. 2

TAMPA BAY at N.Y. GIANTS

G-Men 3-0-1 vs. line last four, 4-1-1 vs. spread last six in 2020.
Bucs 2-2 vs. line away TY, Arians teams “over” 31-15 since mid 2016 with Cards (16-7 “over” with Bucs; 4-3 in 2020). .

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Giants, based on “totals” and team trends.

**Udog** · 10-27-2020, 10:58 AM

101ATLANTA -102 CAROLINA
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game in the last 2 seasons.

251INDIANAPOLIS -252 DETROIT
DETROIT is 16-40 ATS (-28 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.

253MINNESOTA -254 GREEN BAY
MINNESOTA is 48-26 ATS (19.4 Units) vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game since 1992.

255NEW ENGLAND -256 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 24-7 ATS (16.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.

257TENNESSEE -258 CINCINNATI
TENNESSEE is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points since 1992.

259LAS VEGAS -260 CLEVELAND
LAS VEGAS are 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=375 yards/game since 1992.

261NY JETS -262 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

263LA RAMS -264 MIAMI
LA RAMS are 15-5 ATS (9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.

267NEW ORLEANS -268 CHICAGO
NEW ORLEANS are 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.

269SAN FRANCISCO -270 SEATTLE
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 in the last 2 seasons.

271DALLAS -272 PHILADELPHIA
DALLAS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the current season.

273TAMPA BAY -274 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games as a dog in the last 2 seasons.

**Udog** · 10-27-2020, 10:59 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

Thursday, October 29

Atlanta @ Carolina

Game 101-102
October 29, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
132.213
Carolina
127.528
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 4 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 2 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+2 1/2); Under

Sunday, November 1

Indianapolis @ Detroit

Game 251-252
November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
136.881
Detroit
127.019
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 10
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 2 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-2 1/2); Over

Minnesota @ Green Bay

Game 253-254
November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
126.469
Green Bay
137.146
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 10 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-7); Over

NY Jets @ Kansas City

Game 261-262
November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
118.164
Kansas City
144.443
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 26 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 19 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-19 1/2); Over

Las Vegas @ Cleveland

Game 259-260
November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Las Vegas
127.807
Cleveland
134.438
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 6 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-2 1/2); Under

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Game 281-282
November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
134.735
Baltimore
144.935
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 10
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-3 1/2); Under

Tennessee @ Cincinnati

Game 257-258
November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
139.526
Cincinnati
124.176
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 15 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 5 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-5 1/2); Over

LA Rams @ Miami

Game 263-264
November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
140.164
Miami
135.101
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 5
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 3 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-3 1/2); Under

New England @ Buffalo

Game 255-256
November 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
121.608
Buffalo
134.997
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 13 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 4
44
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-4); Under

LA Chargers @ Denver

Game 275-276
November 1, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
125.930
Denver
129.970
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 4
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+3); Over

New Orleans @ Chicago

Game 267-268
November 1, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
133.637
Chicago
128.658
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 5
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 2 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-2 1/2); Under

San Francisco @ Seattle

Game 269-270
November 1, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
130.004
Seattle
140.690
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 10 1/2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 3
54
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-3); Over

Dallas @ Philadelphia

Game 271-272
November 1, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
123.351
Philadelphia
124.648
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 7 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+7 1/2); Over

Monday, November 2

Tampa Bay @ NY Giants

Game 273-274
November 2, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
143.022
NY Giants
123.035
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 20
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 10 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-10 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 10-27-2020, 10:59 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 29

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (1 - 6) at CAROLINA (3 - 4) - 10/29/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 86-59 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, November 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 2) at DETROIT (3 - 3) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 150-188 ATS (-56.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (1 - 5) at GREEN BAY (5 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 118-85 ATS (+24.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 98-72 ATS (+18.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 202-147 ATS (+40.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 54-31 ATS (+19.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (2 - 4) at BUFFALO (5 - 2) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 272-212 ATS (+38.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 272-212 ATS (+38.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 88-51 ATS (+31.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-99 ATS (+21.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-99 ATS (+21.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 209-155 ATS (+38.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 200-155 ATS (+29.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-93 ATS (+29.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-94 ATS (+25.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 73-50 ATS (+18.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (5 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 5 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 127-162 ATS (-51.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LAS VEGAS (3 - 3) at CLEVELAND (5 - 2) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 56-86 ATS (-38.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LAS VEGAS is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
LAS VEGAS is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (0 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (6 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (5 - 2) at MIAMI (3 - 3) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 78-108 ATS (-40.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (4 - 2) at CHICAGO (5 - 2) - 11/1/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 3) at SEATTLE (5 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (2 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 4 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CHARGERS (2 - 4) at DENVER (2 - 4) - 11/1/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 131-96 ATS (+25.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 131-96 ATS (+25.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 104-75 ATS (+21.5 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DENVER is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (6 - 0) at BALTIMORE (5 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 84-56 ATS (+22.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, November 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (5 - 2) at NY GIANTS (1 - 6) - 11/2/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 40-66 ATS (-32.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 2-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-27-2020, 11:00 AM

NFL

Week 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 29

Atlanta @ Carolina
Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Sunday, November 1

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore
Baltimore is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

Minnesota @ Green Bay
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota's last 12 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

NY Jets @ Kansas City
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City
Kansas City is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games
Kansas City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home

Indianapolis @ Detroit
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games at home
Detroit is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games

Tennessee @ Cincinnati
Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Tennessee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Las Vegas @ Cleveland
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games
Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland
Cleveland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

New England @ Buffalo
New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games

LA Rams @ Miami
LA Rams
LA Rams is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
LA Rams is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Miami is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing LA Rams

LA Chargers @ Denver
LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers

San Francisco @ Seattle
San Francisco
San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle
Seattle is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Seattle is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing San Francisco

New Orleans @ Chicago
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games at home
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Dallas @ Philadelphia
Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

Monday, November 2

Tampa Bay @ NY Giants
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Giants is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-27-2020, 11:01 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Falcons (1-6) @ Carolina (3-4)
— Falcons are 0-5 ATS when they score less than 39 points.
— Atlanta covered two of its three road games.
— Falcons lost 30-16 at Green Bay in their only outdoor game so far.
— Atlanta is 6-4 ATS in its last ten games as a road underdog.
— Three of their four games stayed under the total.

— Carolina lost its last two games, 23-16/27-24.
— Panthers lost two of its three home games this year.
— Carolina is 10-14 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite.
— Team leading at halftime won all seven Carolina games.
— Over is 4-3 in Panther games this season.

— Carolina (+2.5) upset the Falcons 23-16 in Atlanta, three weeks ago, their first win in last six series games.
— Falcons won 24-10/29-3 in their last two visits to Charlotte.

Colts (4-2) @ Detroit (3-3)
— Colts won four of their last five games.
— Indy lost two of its three home games
— In their last two games, Colts ran ball 33 times for only 127 yards.
— Indy is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 post-bye games.
— Colt opponents converted 18 of last 34 third down plays.

— Detroit won three of its last four games, scoring 27.8 ppg.
— Lions allowed 27+ points in their three losses; 23-16-22 in their wins.
— Detroit has seven takeaways in last three games (+5); they had none in first two games (-2)
— Lions are 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog.
— NFC North teams are 12-7 ATS outside the division.

— Indy won four of last five series games.
— Colts won 41-9/35-33 in last two visits here; their last loss here was in 1997.

Vikings (1-5) @ Green Bay (5-1)
— Minnesota is 1-5; they covered three of last four games.
— Vikings allowed 27+ points in all five of their losses; their win was 31-23.
— Minnesota has 12 turnovers in six games (-7).
— Vikings lost field position by 11+ yards in all five of their losses; that is really bad.
— Vikings are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 post-bye games.

— Green Bay won five of its six games, winning home tilts by 21-14 points.
— Packers have converted 37-74 third down plays (50%) this year.
— Green Bay scored 30+ points in all five of their wins.
— Packers are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Last three Green Bay games stayed under the total.

— Packers (+2.5) beat Vikings 43-34 at Minnesota in Week 1; they outgained the Vikings 522-382, throwing for 364 yards.
— Green Bay won last three series games; Vikings are 2-2-1 SU in last five visits here.

Patriots (2-4) @ Buffalo (5-2)
— Patriots lost last three games, scoring two TD’s on 30 drives, with 11 turnovers.
— New England lost both its road games, 35-30/26-10.
— Last 4+ years, New England is 2-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last three Patriot games stayed under the total.
— Underdogs are 5-0 ATS in AFC East divisional games.

— Bills scored 30.8 ppg in first four games, 17 ppg in last three.
— Buffalo was outscored in 2nd half in five of its seven games.
— Bills scored 27+ points in four of their five wins; 16-17 in their losses.
— Buffalo is 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.
— Five of their seven games went over the total.

— New England is 35-5 in last 40 series games, winning last seven in a row.
— Patriots won their last eight visits to Buffalo, with three of last four wins there by 16+ points.

Titans (5-1) @ Cincinnati (1-5-1)
— Five of six Tennessee games were decided by 3 or fewer points, or in OT
— Titans won both their road games, by a total of three points.
— Over is 4-0-1 in their last five games.
— Titans are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite.
— AFC South non-divisional favorites are 3-6 ATS.

— Bengals lost last three weeks, 27-3/31-27/37-34; they lost last week’s game with 0:11 left.
— Cincinnati is 5-1-1 ATS this season.
— Bengals lost two of three home games, with both losses by 3 points.
— Cincy is 3-6-1 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.
— AFC North teams are are 12-3-1 ATS outside their division.

— Bengals won four of last six series games; last meeting was 2017.
— Titans won five of their last seven visits to Cincinnati.

Raiders (3-3) @ Cleveland (5-2)
— Raiders scored 34+ points in their wins; 20-23-20 in their losses.
— Las Vegas allowed 400+ TY in four of its last five games.
— All six Raider games went over the total.
— Raiders are 7-5 ATS in last dozen games as a road underdog.
— AFC West non-divisional road teams are 6-1-2 ATS.

— Browns got crushed by Ravens/Steelers, won other five games, scoring 37.2 ppg.
— Cleveland scored 32+ points in its wins; were held to 6-7 in losses.
— Browns were outscored in second half in five of their seven games.
— Cleveland is 5-3-1 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.

— Teams split last eight series games; Raiders won last meeting 45-42 in OT, in 2018.
— Raiders lost three of last four visits to Cleveland, winning last visit 27-20 in 2015.

Jets (0-7) @ Kansas City (6-1)
— Winless Jets are 1-6 ATS, losing road games by 10-29-24 points.
— Jets have been outscored 67-25 in 2nd half of their last five games.
— Jets are 8-19-2 ATS in last 29 games as a road underdog, 0-3 TY.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.
— AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 2-7 ATS this season.

— Chiefs allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 40 points in their loss.
— Kansas City had a defensive TD, ran kick back for a TD in a snowy win in Denver LW.
— Chiefs are 19-11 ATS in last 30 games as a home favorite, 2-2 TY.
— Four of their last six games stayed under the total.
— AFC West non-divisional favorites are 5-1-1 ATS.

— Home side won last seven series games.
— Jets lost last three visits to Arrowhead, by an average score of 25-7.
— Gang Green’s last win in Kansas City was in 1998.

Rams (5-2) @ Miami (3-3)
— Tough scheduling spot for Rams; 1:00 Sunday game in Florida after playing at home Monday night.
— LA has outscored opponents 93-32 in second half of games.
— Rams split their four road games, losing at Buffalo/San Francisco.
— LA’s last four games stayed under the total.
— Rams are 14-9 ATS in last 23 games as a road favorite, 1-1 TY.

— Miami switches to rookie QB Tagovailoa for his first NFL start.
— Dolphins allowed 17 or fewer points in their wins; 21-31-31 in losses.
— Miami won field position by double digits in three of last four games.
— Dolphins are 12-9-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home underdog.
— AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 2-7 ATS.

— Miami won 11 of 13 series games, including last four.
— Rams lost last five visits to Miami; their last win was in 1976.
— LA’s last win anywhere vs Miami was 42-10 in St Louis, in ’01.

Saints (4-2) @ Chicago (5-2)
— New Orleans won its last three games, by 6-3-3 points.
— Saints allowed 23-29-27-24 points in their wins, 34-37 in losses.
— New Orleans scored 30+ points in four of its five games.
— Saints are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite.
— All six of their games went over the total.

— Short week for Bears, after their 24-10 loss in LA Monday night.
— Chicago has three wins by 4 points each, another win by one point.
— Last four games, Bears have 5 TD’s, 5 TO’s, 11 3/outs on 41 drives.
— Five of their last six games stayed under the total.
— NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 9-4 ATS.

— New Orleans won last five series games, all by 8+ points.
— Saints won last three visits here, by 8-16-11 points.

49ers (4-3) @ Seattle (5-1)
— 49ers allowed 16 or fewer points in their wins, 24-25-43 in their losses.
— 49ers are 3-0 SU on road- they won 33-6 in Foxboro last week.
— Niners are 4-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-3 if they score less than 24.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— 49ers are 13-7 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.

— Seattle won five of its first six games, scoring 35.5 ppg.
— Seahawks have scored 27 TD’s on 62 drives this season.
— Seattle is 8-13-2 in its last 23 games as a home favorite.
— Seahawks won field position in all five games, by average of 11.6 yards/game.
— Five of their six games went over the total.

— Seattle won 11 of last 13 series games, but lost two of last three.
— 49ers won 26-21 here LY, ending an 8-game skid in Seattle.
— Two of last three series games went to overtime.

Dallas (2-5) @ Philadelphia (2-4-1)
— Cowboys were outscored 63-13 in last two games; Dalton was KO’d last week, so this week’s QB is a ??? 7th-round pick, 3rd-stringer DiNucci would be making his first pro start.
— Last six games, Dallas is minus-14 in turnovers.
— Cowboys are 0-7 ATS this year; their two wins by total of 4 points.
— Dallas lost its first three road games, 20-18/38-31/25-3.
— Cowboys are 4-7-1 ATS in last dozen games as a road underdog.

— Eagles are 1-2-1 SU at home, giving up 27.8 ppg.
— Four of Philly’s last five games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
— Underdogs covered six of their seven games this season.
— Eagles are 4-12-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.
— Last three games, Philly allowed 159.3 rushing yards/game.

— Cowboys won four of last five series games.
— Dallas won six of its last eight visits to Philadelphia.

LA Chargers (2-4) @ Denver (2-4)
— Chargers lost four of last five games, with two losses in OT.
— Bolts lost two of three road games, decided by 3-7-3 points.
— Last three Charger games went over the total.
— Chargers are 7-3-2 ATS in last 12 games as a road favorite.
— In last two games, LA scored nine touchdowns on 25 drives; the rookie QB is good.

— Denver lost all three of its home games, scoring 13.3 ppg.
— Last week, Broncos gave up a defensive TD and a TD on a kick return.
— In last two games, Denver scored two TD’s on 22 drives.
— Broncos are 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog.
— Last four games, Denver is minus-7 in turnovers (4-11).

— Denver won 10 of last 13 series games.
— Chargers lost six of last seven visits here, with last two losses both by 3 points.

Steelers (6-0) @ Baltimore (5-1)
— Steelers won first six games (5-1 ATS), scoring 30.5 ppg.
— They beat Giants 26-16/Titans 27-24 in first two road games.
— Steelers are 8-2 ATS in last 10 games as a road underdog.
— Over is 3-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last five games.
— Steelers won two of last three visits to Baltimore.

— Ravens scored 27+ points in all five wins; their loss was 34-20 to KC.
— Last five games, Baltimore has run ball for 175 yards/game.
— Four of six Raven games stayed under the total.
— Baltimore is 10-16 ATS in last 26 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year.
— Ravens covered 14 of last 18 post-bye games.

— Ravens won three of last four series games; they’re 7-2-2 ATS in last 11 series games.
— Home side lost four of last six series games.

Buccaneers (5-2) @ NJ Giants (1-6)
— Tampa Bay won five of its last six games, scoring 34.8 ppg.
— Bucs are allowing only 66.3 rushing yards/game.
— Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Three of their last four games stayed under.
— Last five games, Bucs outscored opponents 64-20 in second half.

— Giants’ last three games were decided by total of five points.
— Giants’ defense scored a TD in each of their last two games.
— Big Blue lost two of three home games, with losses by 10-27 points.
— Giants covered once in their last 13 games as a home underdog.
— Five of their seven games stayed under the total.

— Giants won seven of last eight series games; last three series games were decided by a total of six points- they won 32-31 in Tampa LY.
— Bucs lost last three visits here by combined score of 77-14.

**Udog** · 10-27-2020, 11:07 AM

NFL Week 8 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Odell Beckham Jr. tore his left ACL early in Sunday's game at Cincinnati and is out for the season. The SuperBook factored that in when making the Browns 3-point home favorites against the Raiders.

NFL Week 7 is in the books, NFL Week 8 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the injury news, which this week features a big loss for a rising Cleveland Browns team: Odell Beckham Jr. is done for the season.

Week 8 Injuries

Cleveland Browns: Beckham suffered a torn left ACL on the first possession against Cincinnati on Sunday, so he now sets hits sights on next year, while the Browns move on without him. Late Sunday afternoon, The SuperBook at Westgate opened Cleveland a 3-point home favorite against the Raiders.

“We knew he was out for the year when we originally set the number,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said. “He’s worth maybe a half-point to the spread. He’s a good player.”

On Monday morning, the Browns ticked to -2.5. The total opened at 55.5 and was down to 54 by Monday afternoon.

Seattle Seahawks: Running back Chris Carson has a sprained foot, and his status is uncertain for a key Week 8 home game against San Francisco. And Carlos Hyde, Carson’s backup, has a hamstring issue. The Seahawks opened -3.5 at The SuperBook and ticked to -3 Monday morning, while the total was stable at 54.

San Francisco 49ers: Running back Jeff Wilson had a monster game at New England, with 17 carries for 112 yards and three touchdowns, but fell victim to a high ankle sprain. That’s on the heels of Raheem Mostert going on injured reserve with the same injury, so the Niners are thin in the backfield for Sunday’s game at Seattle. Still, this line moved from San Francisco +3.5 to +3 Monday at The SuperBook.

Dallas Cowboys: Quarterback Andy Dalton suffered a concussion on a wicked hit at Washington, so he’s uncertain for a key matchup at Philadelphia on Sunday night, in what’s become an awful NFC East. By late Monday night, The SuperBook still had the Cowboys-Eagles game off the board, awaiting clarity on whom Dallas will have under center.

Denver Broncos: Running back Phillip Lindsay is in concussion protocol, so his status is uncertain for this week’s home game against the Chargers. The SuperBook opened the game at a pick, and by Monday afternoon, Denver was already a 3-point underdog, though that’s mostly due to bettors’ impressions of each team.

Week 8 Weather

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: The early forecast is not good for Thursday night in Charlotte. There could be a half-inch of rain during the day, more in the evening, and winds of 10-20 mph. By Monday night at The SuperBook, the total was down 2 points to 49.

Los Angeles Rams at Miami Dolphins: On Monday, the forecast called for a 40 percent chance of rain and wind from 10-15 mph. That’s done nothing so far to the spread of Rams -3.5 nor the total of 49.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: The forecast calls for rain earlier in the day, but the bigger issue could be wind hanging around, from 15-25 mph. On Monday, the total moved from 44.5 to 44 at The SuperBook.

**Udog** · 10-27-2020, 12:07 PM

Hot & Not Report - Week 8
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 8 Betting Angles

Last week's piece had another solid showing as divisional home teams went 4-3 straight up to push that run to 16-7 SU since the start of Week 2.

Even in those three outright losses, the Bengals and Jets managed to get against the spread wins, for those bettors interested in taking the points instead with those home underdogs, as 'dogs in general in those division games in Week 7 finished with a 5-2 ATS record with Washington closing as the favorite.

There are a bunch more divisional matchups in Week 8, and some of them could be considered “Game of the Week” type candidates with the likes of Pittsburgh-Baltimore, and San Francisco-Seattle likely to get plenty of attention.

Those runs in division games that I outlined last week are definitely something to keep in the back of your mind as the Week 8 board gets broken down, but this week's piece shifts slightly away from that for one, and rehashes an even older run I mentioned a few weeks ago that continues to pay off.

Who's Hot

Since the start of Week 5, NFL underdogs in non-division Conference games are 11-4 ATS overall, including 8-2 ATS the last two weeks.

This run may have hit its peak in Week 6 with 'dogs going 6-0 ATS when the following underdogs connected:

Denver (at New England)
Chicago (at Carolina)
Atlanta (at Minnesota)
Cincinnati (at Indianapolis)
Tampa Bay (vs. Green Bay)
Arizona (at Dallas)

Things were brought back down to earth in Week 7 with a 2-2 ATS mark for the underdogs in that scenario (Pittsburgh, Detroit, Jacksonville and Chicago), but considering the games that are on the docket in Week 8 that fit into this situation, there are some interesting handicapping questions for every bettor to work through.

Who Do You Follow?

Bengals
Raiders
Jets
Bears
Giants

The Week 8 non-division Conference underdogs that would be in this 'play on' spot are Cincinnati +5.5 (vs. Tennessee), Las Vegas +2.5 (at Cleveland), the New York Jets +19.5 (at Kansas City), Chicago +2.5 (vs. New Orleans), and the New York Giants (+10.5) vs Tampa Bay.

Now, it's understandable for most to want to have nothing to do with either of the New York squads right off the bat and I don't think anyone can blame you for not wanting to back the Jets or the Giants right now.

But those are still a lot of points to pass up in both of those games, as I do think the most likely result in the big picture is seeing at least one of those New York teams cover the number.

Who that ends up being is part of the fun of breaking down games each week, but with early support already showing on the Jets – that line opened up at +21 – and against the Giants – that line opened up at +9.5 – it appears as the early bettors in the marketplace prefer the much bigger cushion with the Jets against a KC team that's got a great chance to potentially be disinterested in being expected to win by 20+.

The other three teams are much more interesting though, with the Bears and Bengals coming in as home 'dogs.

After Chicago's rough offensive showing on MNF, I would expect that number to move against Chicago as the week goes on because that offense shouldn't be able to keep up with New Orleans, at least on paper. With the Saints having covered the last five head-to-head meetings with Chicago – including a 36-25 win in Chicago last year – any Bears support is probably best to sit on until later in the week and the line reveals it's nature of movement.

Cincinnati and its defense is going to have to find an answer for stopping this Titans offense that just continues to put up points each week – they've averaged 34.4 points per game in their last five. But the Bengals have grown used to having a defense that has trouble stopping basically everyone – Cincinnati has allowed at least 23 points in all of their games since Week 2 – but they are still 5-1 ATS in that span.

The Bengals have made a conscious effort to make this year about developing the offense in Year 1 for rookie quarterback Joe Burrow and they'll figure out the defense later.

Even without this situational trend suggesting a play on the Bengals, it's teams like the Bengals that put the majority of their effort in on offense that can be a great bet when catching points.

Who's Not

NFL teams before a TNF (or scheduled TNF appearance) are now 2-10 SU on the year and 3-8-1 ATS

This is a run that's just continued on since I brought it up at the start of Week 5.

And after getting burned yet again by the Atlanta Falcons this past weekend (I've personally been on Atlanta vs Dallas, Chicago and now Detroit), and then seeing that the Falcons are up on TNF this week, I thought it best to put out this friendly reminder (for myself and others) to really think long and hard about backing these teams in this spot.

The Carolina Panthers are the Falcons opponent this week, and while Carolina did account for one of those three ATS wins when they covered vs New Orleans, they still found a way to lose outright.

I put in the “scheduled TNF appearance” because of what happened with the Chiefs/Bills game that was originally scheduled for a TNF appearance before virus issues pushed that game back to Monday.

Even still, the week before the Chiefs and Bills met, the Raiders upset the Chiefs as huge underdogs, and Buffalo got their doors blown off by the Titans. Those two results are included in that 2-10 SU run.

Who do you Fade?

Packers
49ers

And bringing up the reminder for this scenario this week is important because with Week 9's TNF game slated for Green Bay at San Francisco, we've got two high profile Week 8 games (Minnesota at Green Bay, SF at Seattle) where it's applicable.

Minnesota has not had this year go as planned, but they are coming off a bye week (extra prep time) and are a team that the majority of the marketplace has already written off. With Green Bay being one of the most popular selections across the board in Week 7 and cashing easily vs Houston, support for the Packers will likely be through the roof again this week.

But any team off a bye should always be considered at least a little dangerous from an ATS perspective, especially when it's a divisional opponent they know rather well.

It's also one of the ultimate “buy low, sell high” scenarios as buying low on the Vikings with the market perception being so negative on them, and selling high on a Packers team that just got the masses paid after a small setback in Tampa Bay. It really is tough to ignore getting that TD with a post-bye week Vikings squad.

Fading the 49ers as a small road 'dog should make many happy that they get to back QB Russell Wilson in that case, but as I talked about in this piece before the Arizona game, Seattle's still a bad team on 3rd down (AKA “the money down”) on both sides of the ball (5-for-13 on offense vs Arizona).

The 519 total yards Seattle's defense gave up put them in the NFL record books for the most yards allowed through six games in the history of the league (2,875), and if that's not the profile of a bad football team, I'm not sure what is.

The situation may favor a play on Seattle in this spot, but the blind spot in the market right now with many believing Seattle is actually a good football TEAM is something that's probably better to look to exploit rather than back.

Meaning as funny as this may sound, it's actually the 1-5 SU Minnesota Vikings that appear to be the much better bet than the 5-1 Seattle Seahawks.

Many won't agree with that and that's fine, I've got no problem letting the “One Man Army” that the Seahawks are with Russell Wilson continue to be overvalued.

I'm sure the band Our Lady Peace and their 90's hit “One Man Army" from my formative years would be proud of what they see in the Seahawks this year.

**Udog** · 10-28-2020, 04:47 PM

Falcons vs. Panthers Week 8 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

We are already at Week 8 of this very unusual 2020 NFL season, and with the expanded playoffs in place this year, talk about playoff seeding and who's got a chance to get in etc is getting ready to dominate the airwaves.

It's also a point in the season where many of the teams in the bottom half of the standings right now are likely a loss or two away from punting on the campaign, so keep that in mind as well in the coming weeks.

The Atlanta Falcons are one of those organizations that are basically already in that punt mode for 2020 and they really have nobody but themselves to blame. They've given away wins vs Dallas, Chicago, and Detroit already this year, so the 1-6 SU record that they enter this Thursday Night Football (TNF) game with really should be much closer to .500.

I'm not entirely sure if that's an indictment on just how many self-inflicted mistakes this organization has made since losing the Super Bowl a few years ago, but I do know that the majority in the market would believe it to be so.

So the question is, can that be exploited in this divisional rematch game (Carolina won 23-16 in Atlanta a few weeks back) or is this just going to be another case of the Falcons finding new and creative ways to get in the way of their own success?

Betting Resources

Week 8 Matchup: NFC South
Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
Date: Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

The Panthers seek the season sweep of the Falcons after winning in Atlanta earlier this month. (AP)

Falcons-Panthers Betting Odds

Spread: Carolina -3
Money-Line: Carolina -140, Atlanta +130
Total: 50.5

2020 Betting Stats

Atlanta

Overall: 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Road: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.3 (Rank 13)
Defense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 26)
Offense YPG: 401.0 (Rank 6)
Defense YPG: 425.9 (Rank 31)

Carolina

Overall: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Home: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 23.1 (Rank 25)
Defense PPG: 24.0 (Rank 13)
Offense YPG: 369.1 (Rank 15)
Defense YPG: 351.1 (Rank 13)

Handicapping the Total

Carolina's 23-16 win over the Falcons a few weeks back was a dead nuts to the 'under', but it was also a game that was dominated by drives from both teams stalling.

Six total FG's were kicked in that game, and four of those six came from inside 40 yards as it was the Panthers who accounted for three of those four sub-40 yard tries.

Oddly enough, that's actually a positive for this Falcons defense, and for 'under' thoughts, but I'm not sure they'll be able to duplicate that performance and get off the field on 3rd down as much as they did in that game.

Carolina still converted 50% of their 3rd downs in that game (6-for-12), and on the road this year, Atlanta has allowed opponents to convert 47% of their 3rd downs. That number puts them in the bottom third of the league overall and puts them right in line with what happened in the first game.

However, at the same time, Carolina's 2nd last in the league in overall opponent 3rd down conversion percentage at 56.32%, as they are a team that has only really gotten worse in that regard.

The better than projected start that this new coaching regime (Matt Rhule) had in Carolina has cooled off a bit now, and even with all of the blunders Atlanta has committed this year (and previous years) in blowing games, they are still a team loaded with talent on offense if quarterback Matt Ryan can consistently protect the ball and get it to all those weapons he does have.

Put it all together, and even with it being a short week and those games tending to lean towards lower scoring affairs, the only way I can look at this total is to go 'over' the number. Carolina might have running back Christian McCaffrey back this week and I don't need to go on to explain how big of a weapon he is for this team.

Finally, in each of the last two seasons, these two teams have always managed to cash the opposite result on the total in their 2nd meeting of the year – ie if the first game went 'over' the second went 'under' – and after some initial action bumped this total down, it's started to climb back up and over the 50-point threshold.

Hard not to agree with that latter move in this instance.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 11, 2020 - Carolina 23 at Atlanta 16, Panthers +2.5, Under 53.5
Dec. 8, 2019 - Atlanta 40 vs. Carolina 20, Falcons -3.5, Over 48
Nov. 17, 2019 - Atlanta 29 at Carolina 3, Falcons +3.5, Under 49
Dec. 23, 2018 - Atlanta 24 at Carolina 10, Falcons -3, Under 46

Handicapping the Side

The Falcons may not have a lot going for them in terms of how they are viewed by the outside world, but they are 2-1 ATS this season as an underdog, and since the start of last season, traditional TNF games (not counting Thanksgiving) between division rivals has seen the underdog go on to cash a spread wager in eight of their 10 opportunities.

That includes a 2-0 ATS mark this season with the New York Giants covering at Philadelphia last Thursday and Cincinnati earning the late cover at Cleveland in Week 2.

But understandably so, trusting the Falcons to get the job done is going to be next to impossible for many in the betting market with them getting less than a FG here.

There really is very little defense for some of the gaffs this team has had in blowing games this year, but there are plenty of other teams in this league that are just as average overall as the Falcons are, but they get a pass because they tend to win all the close games they are in. The Seattle Seahawks (up until losing to Arizona last week) come to mind.

The Falcons are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Panthers, and that includes games that were played in the years that Carolina and Atlanta ultimately made a Super Bowl appearance.

It's far from the best number to be confident in backing this 2020 Atlanta team, but as tough as it may be to submit a wager on the Falcons, they are the only way I can look at the side. That being said, +2.5 is not something I'm excited at all about taking.

Therefore, I do believe that the best way to go overall in this game is to actually go the teaser route with both the side and total. Remember, you can't blow as many games as the Falcons have of late without first having a lead, and with a team like Atlanta that you know always finds a way to play tight games, taking all the points you can with them is a plus.

So teasing the Falcons up to +8.5 with the total down to 44.5 on a 6-point teaser is where my money has landed this week.

Key Injuries

Atlanta

DE Takkarist McKinley: Groin - Questionable
OT Kaleb McGary: Elbow - Questionable
C Alex Mack: Knee - Questionable
WR Julio Jones: Hip - Questionable
WR Russell Gage: Knee - Questionable

Carolina

RB Christian McCaffrey: Ankle - Doubtful
DE Zach Kerr: Toe - Questionable
DE Efe Obada: Back - Questionable
DE Marquis Haynes: Knee - Questionable
CB Eli Apple: Hamstring - Questionable
OT Russell Okung: Calf - Questionable
G John Miller: Ankle - Questionable

**Udog** · 10-31-2020, 03:32 PM

Armadillo: SaturdaysDen: NFL trends with Week 8 upon us

Before we start with today’s list of NFL trends, here are just some of the many reasons why I voted for Joe Biden this week. I don’t belong to a political party; I’m posting these because I think it is important that Biden wins, for the sake of our democracy and the rule of law.

— Joe Biden was Vice-President for 8 years; he knows how the government is supposed to run.

Trump went broke running a casino. He still has $1B in outstanding debt.

— Joe Biden wears a mask when he is out in public.

Trump’s negligence has helped kill 228,000 Americans.

— Trump paid someone to take the SAT’s for him.
— Trump is a racist; the American President shouldn’t be a racist.

— Joe Biden’s four granddaughters did a video telling stories about everyday things like how he calls them all the time, how he likes ice cream, normal family stuff. He’s a good person.

Trump’s niece wrote a book saying what a cruddy person her uncle is.

— Did I mention that Trump went broke running a casino, or that the NFL wouldn’t let him buy the Buffalo Bills, or that in the mid-80’s, he ruined the USFL?

We all have to do what we think is best, but I like living in a democracy, and the best way to preserve this democracy is if Joe Biden gets elected next week.

On to random NFL trends…….
13) Five of Chicago’s last six games stayed under the total.

12) Detroit’s three wins stayed under the total; their three losses losses all went over.

11) Over is 4-0-1 in Tennessee’s last five games.

10) In their last four games, Jacksonville allowed 20.8 ppg, just in the 2nd half!!!

9) Tampa Bay outscored its last four foes 64-23 in the second half.

8) Giants covered four of their last six games; their last three games were decided by a total of five points.

7) Colts won four of their last five games; they converted 19 of last 41 third down plays.

6) 49ers outscored their last two opponents 44-9 in the first half.

5) Green Bay won/covered five of its six games; their last three games stayed under.

4) Buffalo’s first four games: they scored 30.8 ppg
Buffalo’s last three games: they scored 17 ppg

3) Over is 6-0 in Raider games; they gave up 30+points in five of those games.

2) Dallas is 0-7 against the spread this season.

1) Cleveland scored 32+ points in its five wins, 6-7 points in their losses.

**Udog** · 10-31-2020, 03:46 PM

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Thur., Oct. 29 - Monday, Nov. 2)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Thur., Oct. 29 - Monday, Nov. 2)

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