The bum's college football 2020-2021 season news,trends, picks !

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Games
Dec 31

Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth, TX)
Tulsa (6-2) vs Mississippi State (3-7)
— Tulsa lost its first game, its last game, went 6-0 in between.
— Golden Hurricane scored 31.2 ppg in its four wins, 7-24 in losses.
— Golden Hurricane has 9 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— Tulsa has 65 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tulsa’s senior QB has 30 career starts.
— Tulsa covered eight of ten games this season.
— Tulsa is 3-2 in last five bowls, scoring 52-55 points in last two.

— Mississippi State lost six of its last eight games.
— Bulldogs are 1-7 when they score fewer than 41 points.
— Mike Leach has a 7-8 record SU in bowl games.
— MSU has 6 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Rebels have 91 returning starts on the offensive line.
— MSU has switched to a freshman QB; he’s started seven games.
— Seven of their last nine games stayed under total.
— Bulldogs lost last two bowls, 27-22/38-28; underdogs covered their last four bowl games.

Arizona Bowl
San Jose State (7-0) vs Ball State (6-1)
— San Jose went undefeated, with all their wins by 10+ points.
— Spartans are 4-0 away from home, scoring 31.8 ppg.
— Spartans have 6 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— San Jose has 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Spartans have a senior QB with 17 career starts- he used to play at Arkansas.
— San Jose is 6-0-1 ATS this season.
— Spartans are in their first bowl since 2015; they’re 7-3 all-time in bowls.
— San Jose won its last four bowls; their last bowl loss was 1987.

— Ball State won its last six games, after losing their opener.
— Cardinals gave 449+ TY in four of last six games.
— Ball State has 7 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Cardinals have 79 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Ball State has a senior QB with 25 starts.
— This is Ball State’s first winning season since 2013.
— Cardinals are 4-0 ATS as an underdog this year.
— Ball State is 0-7 all-time in bowls; their last bowl was 2013.

Liberty Bowl (@ Memphis)
West Virginia (5-4) vs Army (9-2)
— West Virginia is 5-0 when it runs for 100+ yards, 0-4 when they do not.
— WVU is 1-3 this season in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
— Mountaineers have 8 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— WVU has 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Mountaineers have a junior QB who has started 30 games.
— Under is 4-2-1 in West Virginia’s last seven games.
— Mountaineers lost last three bowls, giving up 31.7 ppg.
— It is difficult to prepare for the option on short notice.

— Misleading record; Army has four wins vs I-AA teams.
— Cadets ran ball for 243+ yards in five of last six games.
— Army has 5 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Cadets have 55 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Army has a junior QB with 17 career starts.
— Cadets beat Navy 15-0, Air Force 10-7, their rivalry games.
— Army was held to 10-12 points in losses at Cincinnati/Tulane.
— Cadets won last four bowls; they were an underdog in two of them.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack
— Wisconsin 42, Wake Forest 28: Deacons led 14-0 after first quarter.
— Nets 145, Hawks 141— Kyrie Irving scored 17, just in 4th quarter.
— Indiana 87, Penn State 85 OT— Hoosiers get first conference win.
— LaSalle 67, Dayton 65— Explorers were a 12-point underdog.
— Richmond 80, Davidson 74— Fun game to watch in A-14.
— Oklahoma 55, Florida 20: Sooners racked up 684 total yards.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 340,956
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“I’m not your best friend. I’m your only friend. I don’t make anything? I’m making you money. And lest we forget, that’s the only reason any of you became stockholders in the first place. You want to make money! You don’t care if they manufacture wire and cable, fried chicken, or grow tangerines! You want to make money! I’m the only friend you’ve got. I’m making you money. Take the money. Invest it somewhere else. Maybe, maybe you’ll get lucky and it’ll be used productively.”
Danny DeVito, from Other People’s Money

Thursday’s quiz
When the ABA folded in 1976, which four of its teams were absorbed into the NBA?

Wednesday’s quiz
In the last 40 years, Ohio State has had two QB’s picked in the first round of the NFL Draft: Dwayne Haskins is one. Art Schlichter was the other; he went 0-6 starting for the Colts.

Tuesday’s quiz
2017 Cleveland Browns were the last NFL team that went 0-16 for a season; Detroit Lions went 0-16 in 2008.

*****************************

Thursday’s Den: Our last den of 2020……

13) We’ll start today with a pet peeve of mine; don’t mean to end 2020 with a complaint, but I’m going to. Too many people mistake kindness for weakness; just because I’m nice to you doesn’t mean you can label me as a sucker. It happens way too often.

12) I read Monday where 90% of Americans live within ten miles of a Wal-Mart; surprised the hell out of me, but it seems to be true.

11) Clemson Tigers covered 10 of their last 12 bowls; they were an underdog in 10 of those 12 games. Quite a juggernaut Dabo Swinney has built; ironically, he is an Alabama graduate.

10) Ben Roethlisberger will sit out this week’s game in Cleveland; Mason Rudolph will play in his place. Will be interesting to see what teams do, if they’re already in the playoffs. Steelers are already in the playoffs; they’re letting some regulars rest up.

9) Odd stat of the day: Last nine times someone on the Knicks had a triple/double, it was nine different guys. Julius Randle had one Tuesday in the Knicks’ win at Cleveland.

8) Michigan State is off to an 0-3 conference start, first time since 2002 that they lost their first three Big 14 games. Spartans did make the MCAA’s back in 2002.

7) 13 of Louisville’s 16 basketball players are freshmen/sophomores, which helps explain why the Cardinals have been struggling. This is a particularly bad year to have such a young team.

6) Arizona Wildcats self-imposed a one-year postseason ban on themselves, hoping to soften the blow that will eventually come down from the NCAA. Auburn did the same thing earlier this fall; we’ll see if LSU/Kansas follow suit, since they’re both headed towards probation.

5) Toronto Raptors are playing home games in Tampa this season; they’re off to an 0-3 start, first time since 2006 they lost their first three games.

4) Conference USA teams went 0-6 in bowl games this season; no bueno.

3) NBA injuries:
— Kevin Love (Cavaliers) is out 3-4 weeks (calf)
— Ja Morant (Grizzlies) is out 3-5 weeks (ankle)

2) Phil Niekro started 716 games in his 24-year major league career; the knuckleballer was difficult to catch, since knuckleballs float around a lot. These two catchers caught the most Niekro starts:

— Bruce Benedict caught 145 of the games; he later became an SEC basketball ref.
— Biff Pocoroba (a 1978 All-Star) caught 92; he was also one of my boyhood heroes, since we have the same first name. Sadly, Biff Pocoroba passed away last May.

1) 2020 has been a tough year for all of us; glad it is ending. Hopefully 2021 will be the start of our recovery as a country, and that all of us can be healthy going forward. Some suggestions:

— Lets be nicer to each other. Every day.
— We should be more tolerant of people who disagree with us
— If it isn’t fatal, its no big deal.

Happy New Year, everyone.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 31
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TLSA at MSST 12:00 PM
MSST -1.0
U 45.5

BALL at SJSU 02:00 PM
SJSU -10.0
U 64.0

WVU at ARMY 04:00 PM
ARMY +9.0
U 41.0

[StarDust Bum]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/31/2020 3-3-0 50.00% -150 Detail
12/30/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/29/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/26/2020 2-4-0 33.33% -1200 Detail
12/25/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/23/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/22/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/19/2020 13-16-1 45.00% -2300 Detail
12/18/2020 2-5-1 31.25% -1750
12/12/2020 11-11-1 50.00% -550 Detail
12/11/2020 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
12/10/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 2-2-0 100.00% -1.00 Detail
12/05/2020 29-21-0 58.00% +29.50 Detail
12/03/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50 Detail


Totals...........79-79-3.....50.00%....-39.50

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack
NFL leaders in passing yardage:
4,740— Patrick Mahomes, KC
4,458— Deshaun Watson, Hst
4,320— Josh Allen, Buff
4,316— Matt Ryan, Atl
4,234— Tom Brady, TB
4,059— Aaron Rodgers, GB

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 344,399
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“It’s dumb. The root of its dumb, no matter what the root of it is. The root of its dumb and the continuation of its dumb. I would have that solidly in the category of dumb. Now where the dumb started, I’m not entirely sure.”
Mississippi State coach Mike Leach, talking about his team’s post-game fight Thursday

Friday’s quiz
Who coached the Baltimore Ravens, first time they won the Super Bowl?

Thursday’s quiz
When the ABA folded in 1976, Spurs, Pacers, Nuggets, Nets were absorbed into the NBA.

Wednesday’s quiz
In the last 40 years, Ohio State has had two QB’s picked in the first round of the NFL Draft: Dwayne Haskins is one. Art Schlichter was the other; he went 0-6 starting for the Colts.

********************

Friday’s List of 13: Our first Den of 2021…….
13) I’m sick and tired of people ripping Jared Goff; seriously, I’m sick of it. Guy played with a broken thumb for a quarter and a half last week, but people still rip the guy. He’s a damn good quarterback.

Last four years, Goff is 44-22 as the Rams’ QB; he helped them win the NFC title couple years ago. Super Bowl didn’t go too well, but Dan Marino lost his only Super Bowl and no one complains about him. Dan Fouts never played in a Super Bowl; he was pretty good.

12) There is a Brooklyn wiseass named Sal Iacono who passes himself off as a sports expert on TV, but he only got on TV because he is Jimmy Kimmel’s cousin. Iacono posts Rams +3 on Twitter Thursday, for this reason:

“I went on Wikipedia to look up this John Wolford to seek out reasons to bet the Rams and it said he’s not Jared Goff, that’s good enough for me.” He goes on to shred Kyler Murray; he doesn’t like Murray’s body language.

Thats what passes for “expert analysis” these days. What a jackass.

11) Bad news for a Dolphins team trying to make the playoffs for first time since 2016, third time since 2002; QB Ryan Fitzpatrick tested positive for COVID, is out for Sunday’s game in Buffalo.
Jake Rudock was signed to back up Tua Tagovailoa this week; Rudock’s NFL experience consists of five passes he threw for Detroit three years ago.

10) Green Bay Packers star LT David Bakhtiari tore his ACL in practice Thursday, is done for the year. Bad news for Green Bay’s offensive line.

9) College football head coaches who didn’t play college football:
— Mike Leach, Mississippi State
— David Cutcliffe, Duke
— Hugh Freeze, Liberty
— Sonny Dykes, SMU
— Manny Diaz, Miami
— Ryan Silverfield, Memphis
— Jedd Fisch, Arizona

8) Louis Hedley is the punter for the Miami Hurricanes; he is a 26-year old Australian who wears number 94, because one of his heroes used to wear #94 for Miami- Dwayne Johnson, better known as pro wrestler/actor The Rock.

Miami QB D’Eriq King tore his ACL in the Hurricanes’ bowl game.

7) I’m glad the Big 14 Network shows a lot of basketball games, but their announcers are really annoying; we know every team in the league is great, every game is competitive, every player is incredibly skilled and a great student. Just announce the games, please????

Big 14 is the best league this year, it was the best last year, but before that, last time it was the best league was 2013. So says kenpom.com, the authority on such things.

Someone should tell these geniuses that the last Big 14 team to win the basketball national title was Michigan State, in 2000. Thats 21 years ago.

6) Bulls 133, Wizards 130: Washington is now 0-5, but Russell Westbrook becomes 2nd player ever (Oscar Robertson is other) to start a season with four triple-doubles in his first four games.

5) It is January 1st, and Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky and Michigan State are a combined 15-15, 1-5 in conference games.

4) There must be a lot of money in selling pillows; lot of late-night commercials for pillows, either the guy who looks like Rollie Fingers, or the pillows that look like pool floats.

3) Nets 145, Hawks 141: If you’re in an NBA fantasy league, you might want to acquire some Nets or Hawks; they both play very fast tempos. Hawks scored 128.8 ppg in their first four games this season. Brooklyn scored 121.6 ppg in their first five games.

2) In November, 56.5% of all the money wagered on sports in Nevada was wager on mobile apps; the number is way higher in New Jersey. Will be interesting to see if New York ever allows mobile sports betting.

1) UCLA 72, Utah 70— Bruins improve to 6-2, 2-0 in conference play.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Week

Jan 1

Peach Bowl (Atlanta)
Cincinnati (9-0) vs Georgia (7-2)
— Cincinnati last two wins: 36-33 vs UCF, 27-24 vs Tulsa.
— Bearcats threw ball for 961 yards in their last three games.
— Bearcats have 6 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Cincinnati has 52 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cincy’s junior QB has 34 career starts.
— Under Fickell, Cincinnati is 10-5 ATS as an underdog.
— Bearcats won their last two bowls, 35-31/38-6

— Georgia won four of its last five games, scoring 41.7 ppg in last three.
— Dawgs gave up 41-44 points in losses to Alabama/Florida.
— Dawgs have 3 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Georgia has 39 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Dawgs’ QB is a transfer from USC (5 starts)
— Georgia’s last six games went over the total.
— Dawgs won four of their last six bowl games.

Citrus Bowl (Orlando)
Northwestern (6-2) vs Auburn (6-4)
— Northwestern lost two of its last three games, after a 5-0 start.
— Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Northwestern has 78 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Northwestern has a senior QB with 30 career starts.
— Wildcats were +8 in turnovers in first five games, are minus-5 in last three.
— Seven of eight Northwestern games stayed under total.
— Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Northwestern won last three bowls, scoring 31-24-31 points.

— Auburn lost two of last three games, fired their coach.
— Tigers scored 32.7 ppg in their wins; 6-22-13-20 in losses.
— Auburn gave up 437+ yards six of last nine games.
— Tigers have 5 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Auburn has 56 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tigers have a soph QB with 23 career starts.
— Auburn is 4-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Auburn lost three of its last four bowl games.

Rose Bowl (Arlington, TX)
Alabama (11-0) vs Notre Dame (10-1)
— Alabama won one game this year by less than 17 points.
— Alabama did give up 46 points, 408 PY in last game, vs Florida
— Crimson Tide has 7 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Alabama has 63 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Bama’s junior QB has made 14 starts.
— Alabama covered seven of its last eight games overall.
— Alabama is 5-2 in last seven bowls (both losses to Clemson).

— Notre Dame lost 34-10 to Clemson after winning its first ten games.
— When ND beat Clemson 47-40 Nov 7th, Trevor Lawrence didn’t play.
— Notre Dame has 7 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Notre Dame has 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Notre Dame’s senior QB has made 34 career starts.
— Notre Dame is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as an underdog.
— Notre Dame won three of its last five bowls.

Sugar Bowl (New Orleans)
Ohio State (6-0) vs Clemson (10-1)
— Ohio State scored 38+ points in five of their six games.
— Buckeyes ran ball for 307-322-399 yards in last three games.
— Buckeyes have 6 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— OSU has 57 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Ohio State’s junior QB has started 19 games.
— Since 2013, Buckeyes are 2-1 ATS as an underdog.
— OSU won three of last five bowls (both losses vs Clemson)

— Tigers’ OC Elliott will miss this game (COVID)
— Clemson won its last three games, scoring 52-45-34 points.
— Clemson ran ball for 238-219 yards in its last two games.
— Clemson has 5 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Tigers have 17 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Clemson’s junior QB has made 35 starts.
— Six of their last eight games went over the total.
— Clemson won five of its last seven bowls.

— Clemson won last two meetings, 31-0/29-23.


********************************


327CINCINNATI -328 GEORGIA
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

327CINCINNATI -328 GEORGIA
CINCINNATI is 7-2 Under (4.8 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

329AUBURN -330 NORTHWESTERN
NORTHWESTERN is 54-26 ATS (25.4 Units) in road games after a loss since 1992.

331NOTRE DAME -332 ALABAMA
ALABAMA is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games in the current season.

331NOTRE DAME -332 ALABAMA
ALABAMA is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. in the current season.

333OHIO ST -334 CLEMSON
CLEMSON is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, JANUARY 1
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

UGA at CIN 12:00 PM
UGA -9.5
O 53.0

AUB at NW 01:00 PM
NW -4.5
O 44.5

ND at ALA 04:00 PM
ALA -19.5
O 66.0

OSU at CLEM 08:00 PM
CLEM -7.0
U 68.0

[StarDust Bum]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

Dec./Jan. Bowl Game totals:

01/01/2021 2-4-0 33.33% -1200 Detail
12/31/2020 3-3-0 50.00% -150 Detail
12/30/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/29/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/26/2020 2-4-0 33.33% -1200 Detail
12/25/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/23/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/22/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail


Totals...........14-22-0........38.88%.......-62.00

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s 6-pack
NFL leaders in receiving yardage:
1,459— Stefon Diggs, Buff
1,416— Travis Kelce, KC
1,372— DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz
1,328— Davante Adams, GB
1,322— Calvin Ridley, Atl
1,282— DK Metcalf, Sea

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 344,399
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“There’s a whole lot of unknowns, so we’ll see what happens. I don’t have any guarantees left in my contract, so something’s gotta happen one way or another.”
JJ Watt

Saturday’s quiz
Where did JJ Watt play his college football?

Friday’s quiz
Brian Billick coached the Baltimore Ravens, first time they won the Super Bowl.

Thursday’s quiz
When the ABA folded in 1976, Spurs, Pacers, Nuggets, Nets were absorbed into the NBA.

********************

Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up the first day of 2021

13) Ohio State 49, Clemson 28
— Buckeyes racked up 639 yards, led 35-14 at halftime.
— Fields threw for 385 yards, six touchdowns.
— Buckeyes will play Alabama for the national title.

12) Alabama 31, Notre Dame 14:
— Game was 14-0 after 11:00, wasn’t very interesting.
— Harris ran for 125 yards, Smith caught seven balls for 135 yards.
— Alabama averaged 9.9 yards/pass attempt.

11) Georgia 24, Cincinnati 21:
— Horrendous, awful time management by Cincinnati in last 2:00, when they were supposed to be trying to run out the clock.
— Dawgs kicked GW 53-yard FG with 0:03 left, then got a safety on last play.
— Georgia threw for 404 yards, outgained Cincy 449-305.

10) Northwestern 35, Auburn 19:
— Wildcats ran for 166 yards, outgained Auburn 457-361.
— Northwestern converted 7-17 on third down, Auburn 2-13.
— Auburn has now lost four of its last five bowl games.

9) Dallas 93, Miami 83— Luka Doncic had 27 points, 15 rebounds, as Mavericks won for only second time in five games.

8) Atlanta 114, Brooklyn 96— 4-1 Hawks appear to be a much improved team; they haven’t made the playoffs since 2017, went 73-158 the last three years.

7) Washington 130, Minnesota 109— Wizards win for first time in six tries; Russell Westbrook didn’t play. Go figure.

6) Western Kentucky 67, Charlotte 63— Hilltoppers were down 8 at halftime, they rallied and won for sixth consecutive time. Only two Hilltoppers shot a foul shot in this game, which is very unusual.

5) Cleveland State 65, IUPUI 62— Vikings are 5-0 in Horizon; previous five years, Cleveland State went 27-53 in conference games.

4) Marist 63, Niagara 61— Red Foxes are 6-1; their last winning season was 2008, when they went 18-14 under Matt Brady.

3) Mike Krzyzewski won’t coach Duke in their game at Florida State Saturday, due to contact tracing. Jon Scheyer will be the acting head coach. Krzyzewski will be 74 next month; he can’t be messing around with COVID.

2) New Mexico’s basketball team is playing “home” games at Lubbock Christian University in Texas this season; Lobos have a very young team (#246 experience, #300 continuity), not having their own gym to practice in isn’t an ideal situation.

New Mexico scored 53 ppg in losing its first three Mountain West games.

1) Long time ago, 1955, there was a Caribbean baseball team called the Santurce Cangrejeros who had a pretty good outfield— Willie Mays, Roberto Clemente and a guy named Bob Thurman, who played four years with the Cincinnati Reds. I’m guessing not a lot of teams in the Caribbean League had two Hall of Famers.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Games

Jan 2

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville)
NC State (8-3) vs Kentucky (4-6)
— NC State won its last four games, scoring 26.0 ppg.
— State allowed 44+ points in all three of their losses.
— Wolfpack is 8-0 when they allow less than 44 points.
— Wolfpack has 10 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— State has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wolfpack has used couple of QB’s; the current starter is a junior.
— State is 3-1 ATS this year in games with a single-digit spread.
— Wolfpack is 3-2 in last five bowls; they gave up 51-52 points in the losses; they lost 52-13 to Texas A&M in this game, two years ago.

— Not sure why a 4-6 team is in a bowl, but here we are.
— Kentucky was held to 13 or fewer points in 5 of their 6 losses.
— Wildcats threw for 120 or fewer yards in six of their last eight games.
— Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Kentucky has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wildcats have used couple of QB’s; the current starter is a junior.
— Wildcats are 1-5 when they score less than 35 points.
— Kentucky won its last two bowls, 27-24/37-30

Outback Bowl (Tampa)
Ole Miss (4-5) vs Indiana (6-1)
— Ole Miss won three of last four games, after a 1-4 start.
— Rebels allowed 33+ points in seven of their nine games.
— Arkansas (394) was only team that gained less than 400 yards against them.
— Rebels have 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Ole Miss has 48 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Ole Miss a has a soph QB with 13 career starts.
— Rebels are 1-4 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— This is Rebels’ first bowl since 2015; they won four of last five bowls. Kiffin is 1-2 as a head coach in bowls.

— Indiana’s QB got hurt, is out for the year- their only loss is 42-35 at Ohio State.
— Hoosiers covered all seven of their games this season.
— Indiana held three of last four opponents to 11 or fewer points.
— Hoosiers have 8 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Indiana has 46 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Indiana has a soph backup QB with one career start.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— Indiana lost its last five bowls, last three by total of six points.

Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, AZ)
Oregon (4-2) vs Iowa State (8-3)
— Oregon scored 31+ points in five of its six games.
— Ducks were minus-2 or worse in turnovers in four of six games.
— Oregon has 4 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Ducks have 21 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Oregon has a soph QB with six starts.
— Ducks are 4-10-1 ATS in last fifteen games as an underdog.
— Oregon won its last two bowls, both by one point.

— Cyclones won five of their last six games.
— Iowa State lost Big X title game to Oklahoma team they had previously beaten.
— Cyclones are 8-0 when they score more than 21 points.
— Cyclones have 5 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— ISU has 33 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cyclones have a junior QB this year, with 32 starts.
— ISU is 3-2-1 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
— Cyclones lost four of their last five bowl games.

Orange Bowl (Miami)
North Carolina (8-3) vs Texas A&M (6-1)
— North Carolina won four of its last five games.
— Tar Heels are 6-0 when they allow less than 31 points.
— Carolina scored 41+ points in five of last six I-A games.
— Tar Heels have 10 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Tech has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UNC has a soph QB with 24 career starts.
— Tar Heels are 4-7 ATS in last 11 games as underdogs.
— UNC lost three of its last four bowl games.

— Texas A&M won last seven games, since a September loss to Alabama.
— A&M Randall for 313-216 yards in their last two games.
— Aggies held three of last four opponents under 270 total yards.
— A&M has 8 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Aggies have 106 returning starts on the offensive line.
— A&M’s has a senior QB with 41 career starts.
— Aggies are 4-3 ATS this season as a favorite.
— A&M won its last two bowl games, 52-13/24-21

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, JANUARY 2
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NCST at UK 12:00 PM
NCST +3.0
O 50.5

MISS at IU 12:30 PM
MISS +9.5
U 67.5

ORE at ISU 04:00 PM
ISU -5.5
O 58.5

TAM at UNC 08:00 PM
TAM -9.0
U 65.0

[StarDust Bum]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

Dec./Jan. Bowl Game totals:

01/02/2021 5-3-0 62.50% +850 Detail
01/01/2021 2-4-0 33.33% -1200 Detail
12/31/2020 3-3-0 50.00% -150 Detail
12/30/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/29/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/26/2020 2-4-0 33.33% -1200 Detail
12/25/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/23/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/22/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail


Totals...........19-25-0........43.18%.......-53.50

[StarDust Bum]

2021 College Football National Championship Odds
Patrick Everson

Alabama opened -7.5 Friday night, and sharp money immediately showed up on Ohio State +7.5, with line moves in both directions since.

College football odds for the CFP national championship are up and drawing dollars. In Friday's CFP semifinals, top-seeded Alabama coasted against No. 4 Notre Dame, while No. 3 Ohio State hammered No. 2 Clemson, setting up an SEC-Big Ten championship game showdown.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on the College Football Playoff championship game opening line, early line movement, sharp money and public betting for this Ohio State vs. Alabama showdown. Covers will update this action report with college football sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

CFP National Championship Game Odds


CFP National Championship: Ohio State vs Alabama Odds
Opening line
Alabama -7.5, Over/Under 76.5

Why the line moved
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET MONDAY: Alabama was installed as a 7-point favorite at William Hill US, ticked to -8 by Saturday afternoon, then crept down to -7.5 Monday. The Crimson Tide are attracting 58 percent of spread tickets and 68 percent of spread money. "I’m not surprised by the movement. 'Bama seems to be on a different level than everyone," WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "Ohio State mauled Clemson, so that should slow down the 'Bama train a little. We’re going to need the same exact thing as Alabama-Notre Dame, for Alabama to win and not cover, and for the game to go under the total." That total ticked from 76 to 75.5 Sunday morning and is still there tonight, with early action strongly favoring the Under, at 71 percent of tickets and 86 percent of money. "With the total this high in a game of this magnitude, the professionals are going to be betting the Under for sure," Bogdanovich said. “The masses will play it Over just because it’s Alabama's offense and Ohio State has the firepower to keep up. When push comes to shove, we’ll need the Under when this kicks off."

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: DraftKings opened Alabama a 7-point favorite late Friday night and at lunch hour Saturday went straight to -8, then backed up a tick to -7.5 Saturday night. The Crimson Tide are taking 71 percent of point-spread bets and 76 percent of point-spread money. The total opened at 76 and this morning dropped to 75 for literally five minutes, before returning to 76. Ticket count and money are both running about 2/1 on the Under.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: About 24 hours after this game went up at The SuperBook, and with more than a week until kickoff, there's been a fair amount of line movement. Alabama opened -7.5 Friday night, and SuperBook executive director John Murray said sharp money immediately showed up on Ohio State +7.5, moving the line to -7.

Late Friday night, the line moved back to the opener of 'Bama -7.5, then slid back to -7 again this morning. However, by this afternoon, Alabama was up to -8.

Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields got drilled in the ribs in the first half of the semifinal upset over Clemson, yet returned to lead the victory. Fields admitted postgame that he was hurting, but Murray said the move up on Alabama wasn't related to Fields' status for the Jan. 11 showdown.

"Just moving up with bets and the market," Murray said. "We definitely expect Fields to be out there."

The total opened at a hefty 76.5 and was down to 75.5 this morning.

"We took a sharp bet and a few public bets on Under 76.5 Friday night," SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers said in explaining the early dip in the total. "But I can't see the total going down from now until the day of the game. The wiseguys would maybe fight over it at the start, but now that there is a market in place, in most situations like this, none of them will be rushing to bet it Under. They'll let the public drive it up from here."

No. 1 Alabama had little trouble dispatching No. 4 Notre Dame 31-14 in Friday's first College Football Playoff semifinal. Then, No. 3 Ohio State stunningly steamrolled No. 4 Clemson 49-28 in the second semifinal.

Well before the Ohio State-Clemson game ended, The SuperBook opened Alabama -7.5, with a total of 76.5, for the Jan. 11 CFP championship game.

"A respected guy took the Buckeyes +7.5 immediately, and we went to 7," SuperBook executive director John Murray said. "There wasn't much discussion really. We had already discussed the potential lines for the different matchups, and (Ohio State QB Justin) Fields looks like he is fine. No concerns there."

Fields took a huge hit in the second quarter and apparently suffered a rib injury, but he only missed one play before firing a TD pass to make it 28-14. Fields then threw another TD pass in the waning seconds of the half to make it 35-14, and he continued playing well in the second half.

The total didn't budge Friday night, but Murray is quite sure of what's coming over the next 10 days.

"Sharps will bet the Under, and the public will hammer the Over," Murray said.

[StarDust Bum]

College Football Playoff Championship Odds, Cheat Sheet, Trends

The College Football Playoff championship is set and the Alabama Crimson Tide will meet the Ohio State Buckeyes in the title game on Monday Jan. 11, 2021 at Hard Rock Stadium from Miami Gardens, Florida.

Inside the Odds

Opening Line: Alabama -7
Current Line: Alabama -8

The Circa in Las Vegas sent out the Crimson Tide as a seven-point favorite over the Buckeyes while the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Alabama -7.5.

FanDuel sent out Alabama -6.5.

As of Sunday Jan. 3, eight days before kickoff, Alabama is sitting at -8 at the majority of sportsbooks.

Opening Money-Line: Alabama -260, Ohio State +220
Current Money-Line: Alabama -295, Ohio State +250

A few sportsbooks in Las Vegas are holding Alabama as high as -340 (Bet $100 to win $29) while the largest return on Ohio State is +280 (Bet $100 to win $280).

Opening Total: 77
Current Total: 75

Circa sent out 77 after Friday’s semifinal outcomes and the number has dropped down to 75 at the property that operates out of both Nevada and Colorado.

A couple shops are holding 76 but most are in the neighborhood of 75 to 75.5.

Betting Numbers

Alabama Crimson Tide

SU: 12-0
ATS: 8-4
O/U: 7-5

Head coach Nick Saban and his talented squad improved to 12-0 after the school defeated Notre Dame 31-14 in the first College Football Playoff semifinal in the Rose Bowl, which took place from Arlington, Texas this season.

The Crimson Tide failed to cover as a 19-point favorite as the Fighting Irish scored a late touchdown for its backers. Including that result, Alabama closed the season with back-to-back non-covers after winning seven straight games for bettors.

The 31 points scored against Notre Dame was the lowest offensive output of the season for Alabama. The 14 points allowed, could’ve been 7, was a great rebound game for the Tide after the school allowed 46 points to Florida in the SEC Championship win.

Alabama’s last four games have come outside of Tuscaloosa and the school has outscored opponents by 27.5 points per game (47.5 to 20).

The Crimson Tide have been favored in every game this season. Prior to this number, the shortest point-spread that Alabama was laying came on Oct. 17 when the Tide were six-point home favorites over Georgia.

The Bulldogs held a 24-20 lead at halftime before Alabama outscored them 21-0 in the second-half for the 41-24 win and cover.

Ohio State Buckeyes

SU: 7-0
ATS: 4-3
O/U: 5-1-1

The Buckeyes finished 5-0 in the Big Ten regular season, failing to complete their eight-game schedule as three games were cancelled.

Despite not playing six conference games, Ohio State was afforded the opportunity to play in the Big Ten Championship and it defeated Northwestern 22-10 but failed to cover as a 17-point favorite.

The 22 points scored was the lowest output by the offense all season but the 10 allowed was the best effort by the defense.

In their College Football Playoff semifinal match against Clemson, the Buckeyes were listed as underdogs (+7) for the first time this season.

Ohio State fell behind early 7-0 and 14-7 early before scoring 21 points and taking a 35-14 lead into halftime. The two teams exchanged a pair of touchdowns in the second-half and the Buckeyes held on for a 49-28 upset victory in the Sugar Bowl.

Including that win, Ohio State went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS outside of Columbus this season and the offense traveled well, averaging 40.4 PPG.

Head-to-Head

This will be the fifth all-time meeting between the Crimson Tide and Buckeyes. Alabama has won three of the first four encounters but Ohio State claimed the most recent meeting.

The Buckeyes defeated the Tide 42-35 in the inaugural College Football Playoff in the 2014-15 season. Ohio State won as a 9.5-point underdog and the ‘over’ (57.5) was never in doubt.

Ohio State went on to win the championship a little more than a week later as it pulled off another surprise, defeating Oregon (-6.5) 42-20 in the title game.

Conference Notes

Alabama has gone 7-1 both SU and ATS in its last eight meetings against Big Ten schools, which included a 35-16 victory over Michigan in the Citrus Bowl last year. The lone loss during this stretch was the aforementioned setback to the Buckeyes.

Outside of the win versus Ohio State, the Buckeyes haven’t had many recent matchups versus the SEC or much success either. OSU is 2-5 both SU and ATS in its last 7 versus the SEC, all of the games played in the postseason.

Postseason Notes

Alabama has gone 8-2 SU and 4-5-1 ATS in its last 10 postseason matchups.

The Crimson Tide have been favored in every game during this span.

In the two losses, Alabama has allowed 44 and 35 points. Both of those games went ‘over’ the number.

In the four games that the Tide have covered during this stretch, the defense allowed a combined 27 points and that led to an easy 4-0 ‘under’ mark.

Going back to 2012, Ohio State is 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS in its last 10 postseason contests.

The 49 points scored in the Sugar Bowl versus Clemson was the highest offensive effort during this span.

The Buckeyes have been underdogs five times in this stretch and the school has gone 3-2 both SU and ATS.

In the wins, Ohio State posted 42, 42, and 49 points while being held to 17 and 23 in losses.

College Playoff Trends

This will be the 7th College Football Playoff Championship game and including the semifinal matchups, we’ve seen 20 games played so far.

Underdogs have gone 11-9 ATS so far and that includes the wins (Ohio State) and covers (Notre Dame) in this year’s semifinals.

In the Championship Game, ‘dogs have proven to be a great investment for bettors prior to last year’s dominating win by LSU.

2019 - LSU 42 Clemson 25, Tigers -4.5, Over 66.5
2018 - Clemson 44 Alabama 16, Tigers +5.5, Over 57.5
2017 - Alabama 26 Georgia 23 (OT), Crimson Tide -3.5, Over 45.5
2016 - Clemson 35 Alabama 31, Tigers +6.5, Over 51.5
2015 - Alabama 45 Clemson 40, Crimson Tide -6.5, Over 53.5
2014 - Ohio State 42 Oregon 20, Buckeyes +6.5, Under 72.5

Overall, underdogs have gone 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS.

Alabama has never covered the point-spread in any of its four CFB final appearances despite going 2-2 in the title game. Ohio State is 1-0.

The ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the six title games.

This year’s ‘over/under’ of 75 will likely be the highest closing total in the championship game.

[StarDust Bum]

499OHIO ST -500 ALABAMA
ALABAMA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games in the current season.




NCAAF
Dunkel

Championship






NCAAF
Long Sheet

Monday, January 11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OHIO ST (7 - 0) vs. ALABAMA (12 - 0) - 1/11/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
ALABAMA is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
OHIO ST is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
OHIO ST is 203-155 ATS (+32.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 203-155 ATS (+32.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 123-89 ATS (+25.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAF

Championship

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ohio State @ Alabama
Ohio State
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio State's last 5 games
Alabama
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Alabama is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games