NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (Sat., Dec. 21 - Mon., Dec. 23)

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


SHERMINATOR

The San Francisco 49ers will have PFF’s No. 1 cornerback Richard Sherman back for their Week 16 matchup versus the L.A. Rams on Saturday night. If the Niners can win out, they can clinch the No.1 seed in the NFC and getting Sherman back will only boost the No. 2 DVOA defense, which faces a Rams offense that is averaging the second-most passing yards a game since Week 13.

No team has held opponents to a lower passing-yard total at home than the Niners. Through seven home games, teams are only managing 134 yards passing per game versus San Francisco, no quarterback has topped 232 yards, and only two QBs have eclipsed 200 yards.

Jared Goff has passed for over 1,000 yards in the last three weeks, but those were against Bottom-15 DVOA defenses. Against Top-10 defenses, Goff has averaged 176 yards, including a 78-yard performance against the 49ers in Week 6.

We like San Francisco with a big bounce-back game this week and it starts with its defense. We’re taking the Under on Goff’s passing total on any number above 225 yards.


SATURDAY MATINEE

Already down WR Mike Evans, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will most likely be without standout receiver Chris Godwin for Saturday’s 1 p.m. ET game. Coach Bruce Arians told reporters on Tuesday that he will look to get his running backs involved in the passing game to compensate for the loss.

Ronald Jones could be the biggest beneficiary of this situation. RJ2 leads the Bucs’ backfield in targets since Week 10, turning eight targets into five grabs for 50 yards the last two weeks. Not great output, but considering the Texans are allowing the most receiving yards to opposing RBs on the year, there’s optimism that Jones could yield 25-plus yards Saturday.

We’re waiting for Jones’ prop market to open and will look to grab the Over on his receiving total on any number below 35 yards.


BEATING THE BILLS EARLY

Sticking with Saturday, we have our eye on a first-quarter play that will feature two elite defenses and one offense that’s struggling to put up points early in December.

The Buffalo Bills haven’t scored a first-quarter point in three games and are averaging just 1.9 points in the opening 15 minutes across seven road games this year. In their last three games, they are 0-2-1 ATS versus the first-quarter spread and will have to fend off a New England Patriots team that leads the league in first-quarter points scored at home. The Pats offensive struggles apparently don’t apply to the first quarter as the defending Super Bowl champs are putting up a robust 9.3 points in the opening frame at Gillette Stadium this year.

We expect this game to be a close battle, but just love the value of the Pats’ first-quarter spread of -0.5 for +115 with the Bills’ ineffective early offense.


JETS AIN'T NO JOKE

Talk to any Pittsburgh Steelers fan and you won’t find many keen on this offense. Current QB Devlin Hodges will get another crack at starting after a four-interception game last week and no QB is attempting fewer passes a game than Hodges (22.3).

Pittsburgh loves to run the ball but could be forced to find another route of action as the Jets are the league’s No. 2 DVOA rush defense and are holding opposing teams to just 89 yards a game on the ground. There’s a good chance that Hodges is forced to watch Week 17 from the sidelines if he can’t show something in New York.

The Jets were missing some key pieces to their defense last week including Jamal Adams, two starting cornerbacks and DL Quinnen Williams. It’s too early in the week to tell if this group sits again, but even if they could get Adams back, it would be a huge boost for the defense.

We’re riding the Steelers’ team total Under again and taking the Under 20.5 early in the week before it slips below 20.


YOU’RE WILKINS

If you’ve forgotten - and we don’t blame you - the Carolina Panthers are still giving up rushing touchdowns at a league-high rate. No team is allowing more rushing TDs at home, on the road and over the last three weeks than the Panthers. The former 5-3 team has rattled off six straights losses, got its coach fired and is on its third QB heading into a road matchup against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16.

The Colts are a Top-10 team in rushing yards per game but are averaging just 67 yards over their last three contests thanks to facing three Top-10 DVOA rush defenses in New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Tennessee. Carolina should help right the ship for the Colts’ rushing woes and we might have to double down because Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins could see an even split if Indy plays with the lead as a 6.5-point home favorite.

We will play the anytime Marlon Mack touchdown but what will make our day is if Wilkins, who saw one less snap than Mack last week and the only two red-zone carries, hits pay dirt as well for plus-money.

[Udog]

NFL's Top Over Teams:

1. Buccaneers 11-3 O/U
2. Panthers 10-4 O/U
t3. Cowboys 9-5 O/U
t3. Lions 9-5 O/U
t5. Cardinals, Ravens, Vikings, Titans, Seahawks, Colts & Giants 8-6 O/U


NFL's Top Under Teams:

t1. Bills 11-3 U/O
t1. Steelers 11-3
t3. Rams 9-5 U/O
t3. Patriots 9-5
t3. Bengals 9-5
t3. Bears100 9-5
t7. Packers, Broncos, Texans, Redskins, Falcons & Chargers tied at 8-6 U/O

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


ARE WE THERE YET?

The end of the year can’t come fast enough for the Oakland Raiders. One week after getting booed off the field, the Raiders will be without their best offensive skilled player in rookie running back Josh Jacobs and their best offensive linemen in Trent Brown. Can the Silver and Black get up for a divisional matchup with the L.A Chargers?

*shakes Magic 8-ball*

“Outlook not so good”

After losing last week to a Jacksonville team that everyone thought had quit, the irony is that Oakland could be the team to roll over with two weeks to go. Facing a Chargers team that has rediscovered its offensive mojo and is putting up over 400 yards of offense per game over the last three weeks could spell trouble for the Raiders’ 31st DVOA defense.

With the possibility of Oakland waning on both sides of the ball and having been beaten by two touchdowns or more in six of its eight losses, we are looking at the alternative spread and laying our pre-Christmas bucks on the Chargers at -13.5 for a cool +200.


PERMANENT PARKER

Receiver Devante Parker has been a consistent threat for the Miami Dolphins passing game but has really turned it on since Week 11. Over that five-game stretch, the WR is averaging eight targets which he has parlayed into a 5.2/80.6/0.8 slash line. This week Parker and the Dolphins will take on a Cincinnati defense that sits 27th in pass defense.

Parker has 12 receptions of 20-plus yards on the year which is the second-most in the league for WRs. The fifth-year wideout also will be motivated to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career. Parker sits 46 yards short of the milestone and should be able to top that mark on Sunday.

We like the Over on Parkers’ 78.5 receiving yards and think the total of 4.5 receptions is just as obtainable.


THE JACKSONVILLE JAGS BEENS

It’s hard to do, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are averaging less than three points over their last four games in the first half. That’s what happens when you score just three field goals in 90 minutes of first-half football. You would have to go back to November 18 to find the last time the Jaguars scored a first-half touchdown.

The Atlanta Falcons are second-last in the league in first-half points scored at home with 7.4 ppg. Even with that terribly low average, they could still cover the four points they are favored by in the 1H against the Jags.

Four games is a small sample size, but in the football world, a month of games is pretty indicative of how a team is playing and scoring just nine points in the first halves of those four games deserves an instant fade. Take the Falcons 1H -4.


TRIPLE TD THREAT

With a three-pack of Saturday games, there isn’t a better time to throw down a parlay to get you through the day. With fantasy football championship week in mind, here are our three best player scoring props for each of Saturday’s games.

HOU@TB: The Buccaneers are giving up over two passing TDs at home this year and will face a Houston passing attack that should have both DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller in a win-and-in game for the Texans. Fuller hasn’t caught a TD since he hauled in three in Week 5 but Hopkins has scored five times in his last eight games and should be force-fed on Sunday with Tampa's No. 1 rush defense. Take Hopkins anytime TD.

BUF@NE: The Bills haven’t allowed a rushing TD since October 28 — a stretch of seven games, so we are avoiding a Sony Michel call here. We are also skeptical to add a receiving TD because the Pats sit first in the league in pass defense and the Bills sit third and both need better play from their quarterbacks.

This leaves us with a Josh Allen rushing TD which could hold a bit of value considering he ran for a TD against the Pats in Week 4 and has rushed for six TDs over his last seven games. Take the Josh Allen rushing TD.

LAR@SF: This is the easiest one of the bunch. We are backing the RB who has rushed for a TD in four straight games and has the leading share in the league’s second-highest scoring offense. Take Raheem Mostert to continue his TD scoring ways.

[Udog]

Saturday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Texans (-3, 49 ½) at Buccaneers – 1:00 PM EST

Unfortunately, it’s too little, too late for Tampa Bay (7-7 SU, 5-8-1 ATS), who is playing its best football towards the end of the season. The Buccaneers started 2-6, but have caught fire by winning five of their last six games, while riding a four-game hot streak to reach .500 for the first time since Week 4. The key behind this resurgence has been quarterback Jameis Winston, who is the current leader in passing yards in the NFL.

Winston is the first player in NFL history to throw for over 450 yards in consecutive games, as tossed 456 yards in a 38-35 home triumph over the Colts in Week 14, followed by a 458-yard effort in last Sunday’s 38-17 rout of the Lions. Winston passed Dallas’ Dak Prescott for the lead in the passing yardage category as the former top pick has eclipsed the 300-yard passing mark 10 times this season, although the Bucs are 5-5 in those games.

The Texans (9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS) are one step closer to back-to-back division titles as Houston held off Tennessee last Sunday in Nashville, 24-21. Houston rebounded from an ugly home loss to Denver the previous week as the Texans built a 14-0 halftime lead behind a pair of touchdown passes from Deshaun Watson to Kenny Stills. Watson was intercepted twice for the second straight game, but Houston improved to 6-2 ATS this season in the underdog role.

A victory by Houston on Saturday will clinch the AFC South championship, or the Texans can celebrate on Sunday if the Titans lose at home to the Saints. The Texans face the Titans once again at NRG Stadium in Week 17 in a potential winner-take-all contest, but it will only matter if Houston loses and Tennessee wins in Week 16.

Houston has not been a reliable favorite this season by posting a 1-5 ATS mark, with the lone cover in this situation coming in a 53-32 blowout of Atlanta in Week 5 as four-point chalk. However, the Texans have gone 4-2 SU in those games with three of those victories coming by three points or less.

Tampa Bay started the season with road underdog victories against Carolina and Los Angeles, but the Bucs slumped in the ‘dog role by failing to cover in five straight opportunities when receiving points. The Bucs ended that skid with a Week 12 blowout of the Falcons, as Tampa Bay is in the home underdog role for only the second time this season.

From a totals perspective, Tampa Bay is riding an incredible 11-1 OVER run, while topping the 30-point mark seven times in this stretch. The Texans have seen the UNDER cash in the last three road contests, while not eclipsing the 28-point mark in the past eight games overall.

Bills at Patriots (-6 ½, 36 ½) – 4:30 PM EST

The AFC East has been dominated by New England (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) over the last 16 seasons as the Patriots have captured 15 division titles. However, Bill Belichick’s team still hasn’t wrapped up the division yet heading into Week 16, as New England needs to fight off a feisty Buffalo squad, that clinched a playoff berth last week.

With a victory on Saturday, New England can celebrate its 11th consecutive AFC East title. The Patriots bounced back from a home loss to the Chiefs in Week 14 to rout the hapless Bengals, 34-13 last Sunday as 10 ½-point road favorites. Cincinnati actually led, 10-7 after the first quarter before New England scored 20 unanswered points to take control. Tom Brady threw for less than 200 yards for the third time in four games as the future Hall of Famer racked up a season-low 128 yards, although he connected on a pair of touchdown passes.

The Bills (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) improved to 6-1 on the road this season after holding off the Steelers last Sunday night, 17-10 as one-point underdogs. Buffalo’s defense intercepted Pittsburgh quarterback Devlin Hodges four times, while Josh Allen hit Tyler Kroft on a 14-yard touchdown for the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter. The Bills cashed the UNDER in six of seven road games this season, as Buffalo has allowed 20 points or less in each contest away from New Era Field.

In the first matchup this season in Buffalo back in Week 4, the Patriots edge the Bills, 16-10 for their eight consecutive road win in the series. The Bills covered as seven-point underdogs in spite of falling behind 13-0 after the first quarter. New England was limited to one field goal in the final three quarters, while its only touchdown came on a blocked punt return in the first quarter. Brady was limited to 150 yards, while the Patriots were picked up only 11 first downs compared to 23 first downs for Buffalo.

In the last five visits to Gillette Stadium, the Bills have not busted the 17-point mark, but are 2-3 in the past five trips to Foxborough. Granted, one of those victories came in 2016 when Brady was serving his four-game suspension for “Deflategate” in a 16-0 shutout by the Bills. The Patriots are 15-1 at home against the Bills with Brady starting at quarterback as the lone loss came in Week 17 in 2014 in a contest that he played only the first half.

The Bills are currently on a 4-0 run to the UNDER, while seeking their fifth cover in the road underdog role. The Patriots are 4-2 to the OVER at Gillette Stadium, as New England has scored just 29 points in its last two home contests against Kansas City and Dallas.

Rams at 49ers (-6 ½, 45) – 8:15 PM EST

The two-year run of NFC West championships for Los Angeles (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS) will come to an end this season as either San Francisco or Seattle will be crowned the division title. The Rams need a miracle if they want an opportunity to defend their NFC championship as Los Angeles needs to win out and for Minnesota to lose to Green Bay and Chicago in order to clinch a Wild Card berth.

The Rams suffered a crucial blow to their playoff hopes in a 44-21 rout at the hands of the Cowboys last Sunday. Los Angeles knocked off Arizona and Seattle in consecutive weeks to reach 8-5, but Dallas ran off 30 unanswered points after Todd Gurley’s touchdown run to make it a 7-7 game early in the second quarter. Gurley was limited to 20 yards on 11 carries as the Rams have lost three road games in a season for the first time in Sean McVay’s three-year tenure as head coach.

The 49ers (11-3 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) are not in the clear for a first-round bye yet after getting stunned by the Falcons last Sunday, 29-22. Atlanta scored two touchdowns in the final two seconds, which sounds hard to believe, but Matt Ryan connected with Julio Jones on the go-ahead score, then the Falcons recovered a fumble in the end zone after several desperation laterals on the ensuing kickoff to give OVER backers a miracle win on the total of 50.

San Francisco began the season at 8-0, but the Niners are 3-3 the last six games and face Seattle on the road next Sunday for the NFC West title. Kyle Shanahan’s team owns a dreadful 0-5-1 ATS mark as a favorite of six points or more this season, which includes home defeats to the Seahawks and Falcons. Depending on how things break over the final two weeks, the Niners could sit with home-field advantage in the NFC, or be relegated to Wild Card weekend since four teams currently possess 11-3 marks (Seattle, New Orleans, San Francisco, and Green Bay).

The Rams swept the 49ers last season, but San Francisco captured the first meeting in 2019 at the L.A. Coliseum back in Week 6. Los Angeles entered on a two-game skid and couldn’t get any offense going in a 20-7 setback to San Francisco as three-point home favorites. Gurley sat out that loss for the Rams with an injury, while quarterback Jared Goff was limited to 78 yards passing as L.A. tries to avoid their first sweep to San Francisco since 2016.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


FITZMAGIC FEET

The Ryan Fitzpatrick rushing show continued in Week 15 as the Miami Dolphins QB went Over his rushing total for the third time in four weeks. Only Lamar Jackson has more rushing yards for quarterbacks since Week 12 than the Miami signal-caller, who’s averaging 36 yards on the ground over that time.

This week, Fitzpatrick will take on a Cincinnati Bengals team that has let Gardner Minshew, Kyler Murray and Jackson top their rushing totals this year. Even with strong results in four games and leading his team in rushing in Weeks 12 and 14, we’re still getting an incredibly modest total of 22.5 rushing yards which we have no problem in taking the Over.


HOLD ON TIGHT

Four tight ends find themselves in the Top-10 in targets over the last two weeks: George Kittle (25), Tyler Higbee (25), Zach Ertz (23), and Travis Kelce (22). Of those four, Higbee and Ertz have the lowest receiving yardage total this week at 58.5 and 67.5 respectively.

The Rams’ Higbee has produced three 100-yard games with Gerald Everett sidelined but the latter returned to practice on Wednesday and could cut into Higbee’s snaps, making a play on the breakout TE volatile.

Ertz’s yardage might be the best value of the bunch as the Eagles TE has gone Over 67.5 yards in three of his last five weeks and faces a Dallas Cowboys defense that’s giving up the fourth-most yards to TEs (63.7).

With Philly having to rely on its tight ends for passing production thanks to a paper-thin receiving core, the 67.5 yards looks like a steal, especially after Dallas let Higbee put up a 12/111/0 last week. Like a good wine with a great meal, look to compliment the Over with an anytime TD.


HAWKS PICKING ON CARDS

It’s a real shame that Kyle Allen had to get benched after we cashed on his Over 0.5 interceptions in back-to-back weeks with ease. But that’s what you get when you throw 10 interceptions over your last five games.

The Seattle Seahawks have forced an INT in five straight games, picking off nine passes against some solid QBs: Jimmy Garappolo, Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff and Kyle Allen.

Up next for the NFC leaders is Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. The rookie QB has thrown for just 10 INTs this year but five of those 10 have come in the last three weeks. Murray’s Over 0.5 INTs is a little juicy at -154 but the matchup favors the Over.


DIVISIONAL DOWN UNDER

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have rewarded Under backers all year. The Bills are 3-11 O/U on the season and have rattled off four straight Unders. The Bills hit the road this Saturday — where they are 1-6 O/U — and travel to New England to face the Patriots, who have hit the Under in their last three home games.

Looking at a first-half Under play, both teams sit 29th and 30th in first-half points scored since Week 13 with a combined total of 16.5 while both their defenses sit No. 1 and No. 2 in first-half points allowed. The Bills’ No. 4 defense is allowing an average of 7.1 first-half points a game with the Pats posting the next best number at 7.8 first-half points allowed.

If you’re looking for a first-half total or a full-game total, both these Top-5 defenses are worth putting your money on.


PRIMETIME DOGGYSTYLE

Hear us out before we try to sell you on a three-team underdog parlay in primetime: the three primetime underdogs are a combined 26-13 on the year and 10-5 over the last five weeks.

Do we have your attention yet?

Two of three teams have Top-8 defenses and the other has Aaron Rodgers.

Putting the L.A. Rams, Chicago Bears (at home) and the Green Bay Packers together on the moneyline may be a big swing, but at +3,070 it may be worth a small play. Think of all the bragging you could do over the holidays after a winner like that.

[Udog]

NFL Week 16 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

A shoulder issue isn't expected to sideline Dak Prescott for Dallas' huge game at Philadelphia.

NFL Week 16 has a quarterback who might not be 100 percent, but he is in no position to sit out. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

DALLAS COWBOYS: Quarterback Dak Prescott has an injury to his right (throwing) shoulder, but with the Cowboys and Eagles in a battle for the NFC East title, the Dallas QB can ill afford to rest. “Prescott is going to play, but we expect him to be somewhat limited,” Osterman said. “We’re at Cowboys -1.5, and it had been Cowboys -2.5.”

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Running back Dalvin Cook (chest) seems unlikely to play, in a key NFC North clash against visiting Green Bay on Monday night. But The SuperBook was prepared for that possibility. “We expected Cook to be out. That line has actually moved in the Vikings’ favor.” Indeed, the Vikings opened -4.5 and reached -5.5 midweek.

HOUSTON TEXANS: Running back Carlos Hyde (ankle), who has 1,030 yards on the ground and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, is questionable at Tampa Bay. However, Osterman said The SuperBook made no move off that information yet. The Texans are 3-point favorites.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Quarterback Jameis Winston (thumb/knee) is questionable, but oddsmakers believe he’ll play against Houston. “Winston was questionable with the same injury last week and played well, so no move.” The Bucs are 3-point home underdogs.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Wideout Julian Edelman (knee/shoulder) is questionable, although that seems to be the case every week, so there’s been no adjustment. “We’ve learned to kind of ignore the Pats’ injury report unless there is more tangible evidence of someone being out. They list a lot of guys as questionable every week.” New England is laying 6.5 at home against Buffalo on Saturday.

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Running back Josh Jacobs (shoulder), who has 1,150 rushing yards and averages 4.8 yards per carry, is out for the Raiders’ game at the Los Angeles Chargers. “Jacobs is worth a half-point to the spread and the total. He’s their main source of offense right now.” The Raiders are 7.5-point underdogs, with the total at 45.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: The defense isn’t as banged up as last week, when several players were out or questionable, but end Dee Ford (quad/hamstring) is among those who won’t play. However, there was no adjustment, and the 49ers are 6.5-point home favorites against the Rams on Saturday night.


Weather Watch

BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND: The middle layer of Saturday’s three-game NFL sandwich will be a chilly one, with the temperature around 30 for a 4:25 p.m. ET start. “The total has come down 1.5 points. Some of that move has to do with the weather, but both teams are also a little banged up.” The total actually dipped 2 points, from 38.5 to 36.5, but rebounded to 37 Thursday.

CINCINNATI AT MIAMI: A battle among two of the league’s worst teams could be played in the South Florida rain. There’s an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms Sunday. However, Osterman said that hasn’t yet impacted the total, which sits at 46.

OAKLAND AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: There’s a 50 percent chance of rain in L.A. on Sunday. “The total has come down 1.5 points. That’s more to do with Josh Jacobs being out than the weather.” The total is at 45.
Pros vs. Joes

DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA: “The only game that is Pros vs. Joes is this one. The public has been all over the Cowboys, but the line has come down with concern over Dak Prescott’s shoulder. We got some early sharp money on the Eagles at +3 (-120). We are currently at Cowboys -2.”


Reverse Line Moves

DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA: A repeat of the Pros vs. Joes, with sharp action coming in on the Eagles, but more money flowing toward the Cowboys for Sunday’s NFC East showdown.

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 16
December 20, 2019
By Micah Roberts

One of the most popular sides bet by respected money in Sunday’s Week 16 NFL action has been the Titans at home against the Saints.

The Saints are fighting for home field in the NFC while the Titans might already know if their playoff hopes have been wiped away if the Texans win at Tampa Bay, one of three NFL games played on Saturday.

”They took the Titans at +3 and +3 -120, so I moved it to +2 making us the lowest number in the market,” said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso. “I skipped 2.5 just because I wanted to get to where I thought it was going quicker.”

Jason McCormick of Station Casinos and Chris Andrews at the South Point both said the Titans were one of their most bet games by sharp money.

The attraction with the Titans could simply be a matter of taking the home +3, the most key number in the NFL or it could be the Saints playing on a short week coming off an emotional game with Drew Brees passing Peyton Manning for the all-time record in TD passes.

But the possible emotions of the Titans being eliminated has to mean something to the number. We’ll see where the number goes if the Texans win Saturday, something that large money has already bet will happen.

“They bet the Texans at -2 and -2.5 and we’re at -3 (-120) now,” DiTommaso said. “I don’t get the total move in that game. They’ve been betting the Buccaneers under the past few weeks for some reason. We’re looking to stay ahead of the market at 50.5 and we’ll wait for one more large bet on it to drop it lower.”

The Buccaneers have gone over the total in 11 of their last 12 games and their defense allows 31 ppg at home, but the main driving force for the high scores has been Jameis Winston, who has thrown for over 450 yards in his last two starts. All season long Winston throws a bunch of interceptions allowing opponents several short field opportunities and then he throws three or four TD passes, and lately, he’s been winning. The Bucs have won their last four games as Winston auditions for a new contract.

“They (sharp money) laid -5.5 and -6 with the Chargers (vs. Raiders) and also -6.5 with the Broncos (vs. Lions),” DiTommaso said.

Most books have some variation of -7 with the Chargers while MGM books were holding onto -6.5 (-120) as of Friday afternoon. Both teams come in off lousy performances, and once again for the Chargers, home-field at Carson, CA, we can expect the opponent to have the home-field advantage. Expect Raider Nation to have a sea of black in the stands, for whatever that’s worth. Again, there is no home field value to the number. In fact, you could probably add +1 to the Raiders for the home-field.

The Lions have lost seven straight and are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine. The Broncos have looked good in their last three, winning two of them. The 38-24 win at Houston three weeks ago was their most impressive win of the season with the offense, defense, and special teams all playing key roles.

CG books also saw respected money come in on the Steelers (-3 at the Jets) and Bengals (-1 at Miami). “They took +1 and pick with the Bengals,” DiTommaso said. The South Point has also taken sharp bets on the Bengals.

Westgate Superbook VP Jay Kornegay has seen his most sharp wagers on the Steelers, Titans, and Eagles (+3 vs. Cowboys).

Eagles money has forced every book to move with the lowest number being Cowboys -1.5 at MGM books. If the Cowboys win, they’ll win the NFC East. It’s probably the biggest game of Carson Wentz’s NFL career.

The top four public plays are just about the same everywhere. Books will be sweating all the parlays with the Chiefs (-6 at Chicago), Saints, Ravens (-10 at Cleveland), and 49ers (-6.5 vs. Rams).

The Chiefs have won and covered their last four games, while also staying under in all four. That’s a nice two-team, side-to-total parlay at 13-to-5 odds that could be active again with the Bears solid defense and improved Chiefs' defense. But the public weight on this game is something to consider with taking the points and Bears at home. Because it’s going to be the last NFL game posted Sunday night, the risk is going to be one-sided.

“We’re going to need to beat the Chiefs Sunday night and we’ll need the Packers on Monday as well,” said DiTommaso.

The Vikings are 5.5-point home favorites Monday night against the Packers after opening -4.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 16
December 21, 2019
By Joe Williams

We have two more weekends remaining in the National Football League regular season before the 'real' season starts - the playoffs. The field for the postseason is starting to come together, and in the next week we'll face the specter of certain teams resting. Week 16 won't have any teams resting, but depending on the results this weekend, we might see a handful of teams holding out key elements.

2019 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 15 10-6 8-8 11-5
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 110-113-1 108-115-1 101-118-5

Bettors crushed it on the totals in Week 15, hitting the over in 10 of the 16 games. The public loves 'over' results, too. We'll see if they have nearly the same kind of success in the final two weekends of the National Football League regular season. The first half total results went 8-8 last week but the offensive units finished strong as the 'over' went 11-5 in the second-half. Through 15 weeks of action, the 'under' has trended ahead the first-half (115-108-1), and in the second-half (118-101-5).

Division Bell
In the four divisional battles in Week 15, the edge went to the 'under' once again - including the two AFC divisional matchups. The under is now 43-34 (55.8%) in divisional games this season.

DIVISIONAL GAME RESULTS WEEK 15
Philadelphia at Washington Over (38.5) Philadelphia 37, Washington 27
Chicago at Green Bay Under (41) Green Bay 21, Chicago 13
Houston at Tennessee Under (50.5) Houston 24, Tennessee 21
Denver at Kansas City Under (43) Kansas City 23, Denver 3

Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 16 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Arizona at Seattle: 48 ½ to 51
Oakland at L.A. Chargers: 47 to 45
Dallas at Philadelphia: 47 ½ to 46
Jacksonville at Atlanta: 46 to 47 ½
N.Y. Giants at Washington: 43 to 41 ½
Pittsburgh at N.Y. Jets: 38 ½ to 37

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 16 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Jacksonville at Atlanta: Over 94%
Pittsburgh at N.Y. Jets: Under 93%
Oakland at L.A. Chargers: Under 92%
Baltimore at Cleveland: Under 85%
Carolina at Indianapolis: Over 84%
N.Y. Giants at Washington: Over 79%
Dallas at Philadelphia: Under 77%
Cincinnati at Miami: Over 76%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (74 percent) in the Arizona at Seattle matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in Green Bay at Minnesota (MNF) (72 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 16

WEEK 15 TOTAL RESULTS
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 1-3 32-41
NFC vs. NFC 4-0 26-22
AFC vs. AFC 2-2 22-21-1
AFC vs. NFC 3-1 30-28

Week 16 Action

Jacksonville at Atlanta: The Jaguars and Falcons hook up in Atlanta in a 'pride' game, as there isn't anything on the line other than that. The Jags have posted an over in five of their past seven as an underdog, including 4-1 in the past five as a road 'dog. Jacksonville has struggle defensively, although last week they showed well allowing just 16 points. In the past six weeks they're still allowing 31.7 points per game (PPG). The Falcons are coming off an impressive win at San Francisco last week, and have shown some fight down the stretch as they try to do enough to potentially save the job of head coach Dan Quinn. The over is 4-1 in their past five as a favorite, and 4-1 in the past five against teams with a losing record. The Falcons have hit the 'over' in three of the past four overall, too, averaging 27.3 PPG while allowing 25.8 PPG.

New Orleans at Tennessee: These Saints have no issues offensively, but it's hard to know which defense is going to show up. In the past five weeks they have scored 24, 46, 26, 34 and 34. During the same span they have allowed 7, 48, 18, 31 and 17. The Jekyll and Hyde performance by the D makes it hard to play them on the total. AS you would expect, the over/under is 3-3 in their six games on the road this season, too. For the Titans, they fired out of the box defensively, but lately the defense has been susceptible to points. They have yielded 20 or more points in seven of the past eight, including last week's 24-21 loss at home to the Texans. However, that game went 'under', snapping a seven-game 'over' run for Tennessee. The 'over' has hit in each of their past two against NFC South Division foes, too, averaging 23.5 PPG while yielding 26.5 PPG, including a 27-23 win over the Bucs on Oct. 27.

N.Y. Giants at Washington: The Giants and Redskins hook up on Sunday. These teams met back on Sept. 29, and the Redskins lost 24-3 in the rain and slop in New Jersey. QB Daniel Jones returns under center this week for the G-Men after QB Eli Manning returned under center for the past two outings. The offense rolled up 36 points last week against the Dolphins, but they're back to the rookie anyway. Intheir past two road games the 'under' has connected. For the Redskins, the 'over' cashed in their 37-27 loss against the Eagles at home, and the 'over' is 4-3 in the past seven games at FedEx Field for the 'Skins. Their offense has resembled an NFL-caliber offense lately, averaging 22.5 PPG over the past four outings. Unfortunately for Washington, the defense has allowed 26.0 PPG over the past three. The over is 7-2 in New York's past nine on the road, but the under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in D.C. and 5-1 in the past six meetings overall in this series.

Pittsburgh at N.Y. Jets: The Steelers look to keep their push for an AFC wild-card playoff spot alive, and old friend RB Le'Veon Bell stands in their way. The Steelers enter this game on a 6-0 'under' run, while hitting in 11 of their 14 games overall. Points have been at a premium for the black and gold, as they're doing it with defense. Pittsburgh has posted 10, 23, 20, 16, 7 and 17 over their past six games while yielding 17, 17, 13, 10, 21 and 12 during the same span. For the Jets, they have averaged 21.5 PPG over the past two games, including 21 points against the Ravens in Baltimore last Thursday, a rare 'over' lately for Gang Green. The 'under' is 3-0 in their past three Sunday games, as they're averaging 20.7 PPG while yielding 15.3 PPG from Weeks 12 through 14.

Cincinnati at Miami: The Bengals have 'sucked for Burrow', or whatever you want to call the race for the No. 1 pick. They haven't scored more than 23 in any one game this season, and they have scored 19 or fewer points in 11 of their 14 games overall. It's no surprise that the 'under' is 8-5-1 for Cincinnati, including 6-1 in their seven games on the road. For the Dolphins, they started the season as a laughingstock, but they haven't given up and have kept working hard down the stretch, winning a few games along the way. They're on a season-high streak with five straight games of 20 or more points, although the defense continues to be rather awful. Miami has posted 20, 21, 37, 24 and 20 over the past five outings, while giving up 36, 22, 31, 41 and 37 during the same five-game span. As such, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five outings. The over is 2-1 in Miami's three games vs. AFC North clubs this season, too.

Carolina at Indianapolis: The offense of the Panthers will be a bit of an unknown this week. Rookie QB Will Grier will make his first-career start, as Carolina rolls the dice and sees what the rookie can do. Carolina has posted 24, 20, 21 and 31 over the past four weeks, as offense hasn't exactly been the issue. Defensively is where the Panthers have had trouble, yielding 30, 40, 29, 34 and 29 across the past five, with the 'over' cashing in four in a row. Indy registered just seven points in last week's game on Monday in New Orleans, as QB Jacoby Brissett looked very ordinary and the Colts almost didn't score. In their seven home games the 'over' has connected in five outings, however.

Detroit at Denver: The Broncos had been humming along with 61 total points in two games in Week 12 and 13 under rookie QB Drew Lock. However, the Broncos didn't fare very well in the snow in Kansas City, scoring just three points in a 20-point loss for the 'under'. The total is 3-3 for Denver this season, although it has cashed in two in a row in the Mile High City. The Lions have stumbled offensively under QB David Blough since Thanksgiving, posting 17, 7, 20 in his past three games. The 'under' is 3-0 in the past three road games for Detroit, too, averaging just 12.0 PPG while allowing only 19.7 PPG during the same span defensively.

Oakland at L.A. Chargers: This used to be Oakland vs. San Diego. Then for a while it was L.A. vs. San Diego. Then Oakland vs. San Diego again. This is the final Oakland vs. L.A. matchup, as soon it will be Las Vegas vs. L.A. It will take some getting used to. The Raiders have really struggled offensively, as they already look like they're dreaming of Vegas lately. They have scored 16, 21, 9, 3 and 17 across the past five outings, hitting the 'under' in four of those outings. They did hit the 'over' in a 26-24 win over the Bolts back on Nov. 7 in a Thursday night game in Oakland, however. The Bolts have hit the 'over' in three in a row, although they've taken different routes to do it. They lost last week 39-10, they won 45-10 on the road the week before, and had a narrow 23-20 loss in Week 12. Inconsistency is no surprise for the Bolts, and one of the reasons they're on the outside looking in heading to the playoffs.

Dallas at Philadelphia: The Cowboys rolled up 44 points at home against the Rams, their second straight 'over' result, as they look to keep their NFC East playoff hopes alive. This game is essentially a playoff game, as the winner likely wins the division, with the loser out in the cold. Ths first meeting between these teams resulted in a 37-10 whitewashing by the Cowboys in Jerry World back on Oct. 20, hitting the 'under' in the process. While the offense has been pretty impressive lately for the Cowboys, the defense leaves a lot to be desired. They have yielded 21, 31, 26, 13, 27 and 28 across the past six outings, and the 'over' is 5-2 in their past seven, and 7-3 in the previous 10. The 'over' is 7-1 in the past eight divisional games for the 'Boys, while the 'under' is 5-0 in the past five home games for the Eagles and 4-1 in the past five as a home 'dogs. The under is also 7-3 in the past 10 meetings in Philadelphia.

Heavy Expectations
There are two games listed with a spread of nine points or more for Week 16, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 49.5 to 51 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Baltimore at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. ET): The Browns stunned the Ravens 40-25 back in Week 4 in Charm City, easily the finest showing of the entire season for the disppointing Browns. Don't think Baltimore forgot about it. They can clinch the AFC North and the No. 1 seed overall in the conference with a victory. They're heavily favored to do so. In their only game this season as underdog of more than a touchdown, they're 0-1 SU/ATS. The Browns have scored 24, 27, 13 and 41 over the past four outings, while yielding 38, 19, 20 and 24, hitting the 'over' in three of the four outings. For Baltimore, it's been all offense all the time, hitting for 20 or more points in every game this season. As a favorite of seven or more points, the 'over' is 4-2 for the Ravens, including 2-0 in the past two instances. The over hit in the first meeting this season between these teams, and the over is 5-1 in Baltimore's past six divisional games, and 5-1 in their past six as a road favorite, too.

Arizona at Seattle (4:25 p.m. ET): The Cardinals are huge 'dogs in the Pacific Northwest this weekend. These teams met back in Week 4, and the Seahawks came home from the desert with a 27-10 win and an 'under' result. The Cardinals have been a bit erratic lately, posting 38, 17, 7 and 25 over the past four outings, with the defense yielding 21 or more points in each of their games this season. The Seahawks have also been a bit inconsistent lately, going for 30, 12, 36 and 17 over the past four outings, so it's no surprise the over/under is 2-2 during the four-game span. Defensively, the Seahawks have allowed an un-Seattle-like 20 or more points in all but two of their games this season , including three of their four divisional games. Of course, as mentioned, the Cardinals scored just 10 in the first meeting, the second-lowest offensive total of any opponent. In games where the Seahawks are favored by 5.5 or more points, the under is 3-1 this season.

Under the Lights

Kansas City at Chicago (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Chiefs and Bears will do battle on Sunday Night Football, as even though the Bears no longer have a shot at a playoff spot, the NBC execs liked the appeal of a Patrick Mahomes-Mitchell Trubisky battle, apparently. The Bears were dusted 21-13 at Green Bay last week, and have hit the 'under' in six of their past eight outings. For Chicago, they're 2-1 in three games vs. AFC West foes this eason, and the under is 3-1 in their past four games at home, too. The Chiefs are on a 4-0 'under' run lately, as the defense has stepped up with totals of 3, 16, 9 and 17 allowed. The Bears don't figure to do much more than that. The under is 3-1 in Kansas City's past four games on the road, too, so the SNF might be a defensive slog.

Green Bay at Minnesota (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Packers and Vikings will square off at U.S. Bank Stadium in the Twin Cities in what could be an entertaining MNF battle. These teams squared off in Week 2, and it was the Pack coming away with a 21-16 win and 'under' result. The under hasn't been a frequent occurrence for the Vikings lately, as the 'over' is 5-1 in the past six games, and 7-2 in the previous nine outings. The under is 2-1 in Minnesota's past three at home, however, and the under cashed in their only other primetime home game back on Oct. 24 against the Redskins, a 19-9 win. The under is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings in this series, and a perfect 5-0 in the past five meetings in the Twin Cities.

Fearless Predictions
It wasn't a terrible Week 15, but another week of breaking even. A result of (-$10) was disappointing, missing the teaser yet again, as I continue to search for that elusive sweep. The deficit is down to (-$495) for the season. We'll look to keep it going in Week 16, hopefully getting back in black soon before it's all over. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Oakland-L.A. Chargers 45
Best Under: Green Bay-Minnesota 47
Best First-Half Under: Dallas-Philadelphia 23 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Over 38 Oakland-L.A. Chargers
Under 54 Green Bay-Minnesota
Under 56 Baltimore-Cleveland

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Blitz - Week 16
December 21, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Saints (-2, 49 ½) at Titans – 1:00 PM EST
The team that will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl is anybody’s guess. The same can be said on who will have home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs as Seattle, San Francisco, Green Bay, and New Orleans all own identical 11-4 records with two games remaining. The Saints (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS) have already wrapped up the NFC South title, but New Orleans is seeking at least a first-round bye as it needs to win out and receive some help as it loses tiebreakers with San Francisco and Green Bay.

New Orleans is eyeing a perfect 4-0 mark against the AFC South after routing Indianapolis this past Monday, 34-7 to easily cash as eight-point favorites. Quarterback Drew Brees broke Peyton Manning’s all-time passing touchdowns record with four touchdown tosses, while the Saints avoided back-to-back losses for the first time since 2017. The Saints hit the highway for the final two games of the season (next week at Carolina), as New Orleans owns a solid 5-1 SU/ATS road mark with the lone loss coming to the Rams in Week 2 when Brees sustained a thumb injury.

The Titans (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) were dealt a huge blow to their playoff hopes after falling to the Texans at home last Sunday, 24-21. Tennessee suffered its first home loss with Ryan Tannehill starting at quarterback in five tries, while its OVER streak of seven straight games ended. The Titans can still make the playoffs with a pair of wins and at least one Pittsburgh loss, as Tennessee enters Sunday’s action by owning a 4-2 SU/ATS record as a home underdog under head coach Mike Vrabel, which includes a 35-32 triumph over Kansas City in Week 10.

Best Bet: Titans 27, Saints 24

Steelers (-3, 37) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST
In spite of falling to the Bills last Sunday night, the Steelers (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS) are still in a prime spot to grab the second Wild Card spot in the AFC. Pittsburgh has allowed 17 points or less in four consecutive games, while the UNDER has cashed in six consecutive contests. The Steelers are sticking with quarterback Devlin Hodges in spite of him throwing four interceptions against Buffalo, as Pittsburgh has won three of its past four games away from Heinz Field.

The Jets (5-9 SU, 5-9 ATS) have caught fire at home recently by winning four of their past five games at MetLife Stadium. Running back Le’Veon Bell squares off against his former team for the first time on Sunday, as the ex-Steeler has racked up only 676 yards on the ground, compared to back-to-back nearly 1,300-yard seasons in 2016 and 2017. The Jets have not defeated a team with a winning record this season as New York is coming off a 42-21 setback at Baltimore in Week 15, ending a three-game ATS hot streak in the underdog role.

Pittsburgh has taken care of its business against teams with losing records this season by compiling a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS mark, while going 2-0 SU/ATS in the role of a road favorite. The Jets own a 3-1 SU/ATS record in the past four opportunities as a home underdog, with the lone loss coming to the Patriots in Week 7. Pittsburgh is facing New York on the road for the first time since 2014, while the Steelers won the previous matchup with the Jets in 2016 at Heinz Field.

Best Bet: Steelers 16, Jets 14


Cowboys (-2, 45 ½) at Eagles – 4:25 PM EST
The NFC East title comes down to Sunday’s matchup at Lincoln Financial Field between a pair of 7-7 teams. Dallas (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) can wrap up the division championship with a victory as it would own the tiebreaker over Philadelphia. The Cowboys ended a three-game skid in last Sunday’s 44-21 rout of the Rams, as Dallas scored 30 unanswered points after the game was tied at 7-7. Dallas ran all over the L.A. defense for 263 yards, the most yards on the ground for the Cowboys since Week 9 against the Giants (172 yards).

The Eagles (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) were 5-7 two weeks ago, but victories over the Giants and Redskins have put them in a position to win the NFC East. Two wins for Philadelphia and it clinches the division, but the Eagles have not been convincing the last two games as they rallied from a 17-0 deficit to shock the Giants in overtime, followed by the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute to beat Washington. However, the Eagles did cover as seven-point favorites thanks to a fumble return for a touchdown as time expired for a 37-27 triumph, snapping a four-game ATS slide.

Dallas has won eight consecutive division battles against NFC East foes, while posting a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS mark this season. Included in that flawless mark is the 37-10 rout by Dallas at AT&T Stadium in Week 7 as three-point home favorites. Dallas is riding a four-game hot streak against Philadelphia since 2017, which includes victories at Lincoln Financial Field in each of the past two seasons.

Best Bet: Eagles 23, Cowboys 20

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (3-2 last week, 37-37-1 this season)
Lions +7
Jaguars +7
Colts -7
Cardinals +9 ½
Bears +6 ½

Chris David (4-1 last week, 41-34 this season)
Chargers -7
Eagles +2 ½
Seahawks -9 ½
Bears +6 ½
Vikings -5 ½

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 45 ½ - Raiders at Chargers
The Chargers are playing their final game in Carson before moving into their new stadium in Los Angeles next season along with the Rams. The Lightning Bolts welcome in the rival Raiders, who lost in their home finale at the Coliseum to the Jaguars. In that defeat, Oakland was limited to fewer than 21 points for the fifth consecutive game, while cashing the UNDER for the fourth time in this span. The Chargers were blown out by the Vikings last week as Los Angeles turned the ball over seven times. In the first matchup between the Chargers and Raiders in Oakland, the Silver and Black won 26-24, snapping a five-game UNDER run between the AFC West rivals.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE
In the two worst matchups of the week, we’ll highlight both these line moves with the road squad receiving attention. The Giants opened as 2 ½-point road underdogs against the Redskins, but that line has shifted to a pick-em at the Westgate Superbook. Rookie Daniel Jones will start for the Giants in place of Eli Manning after the former Duke standout missed the last two games with an ankle injury. Meanwhile, the Dolphins were listed as a favorite for the first time this season as short one-point chalk, but that line has flipped to Cincinnati laying 1 ½ points at the Westgate. If you play those games, best of luck.

TRAP OF THE WEEK
The Seahawks are on their way to an NFC West title as they need two home wins to accomplish that feat. Seattle hosts Arizona on Sunday as the Seahawks have already blown out the Cardinals once on the road back in Week 4. However, the Cards own a 4-1-1 ATS on the highway this season, including covers against the Ravens and Buccaneers. Arizona has cashed in each of its past four visits to CenturyLink Field, while Seattle hasn’t been this heavy of a favorite since Week 1 against Cincinnati as the Seahawks won that game by one point.


Sunday will mark the 10th time this season that a rookie quarterback will be listed as a favorite. These QB’s have compiled a 3-6 SU/ATS record, which include the likes of Arizona’s Kyler Murray, New York’s Daniel Jones, Washington’s Dwayne Haskins, and Jacksonville’s Gardner Minshew. Denver rookie Drew Lock is listed as a seven-point favorite when the Broncos face the Lions, as it is the highest chalk number for Denver this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 16
December 21, 2019
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Saints are 12-0 ATS (12.67 ppg) since Jan 04, 2014 on the road when they covered by at least six points last game.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Cardinals are 0-10-1 ATS (-8.95 ppg) since Jan 16, 2010 as a road dog off a game as a dog where they covered by at least seven points.

TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:
-- The Saints are 7-0-1 ATS (7.44 ppg) since Jan 03, 2016 coming off a game where Drew Brees threw for at least 10 yards per attempt.

NFL CHOICE TRENDS:
-- The Cowboys are 11-0 ATS (8.82 ppg) since Sep 10, 2017 as a favorite when playing a divisional opponent.

-- The Buccaneers are 15-0 OU (9.70 ppg) since Oct 30, 2016 as a dog when more than 50 points were scored in their last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:

-- The Bears are 0-7 OU (-7.79 ppg) since Dec 24, 2017 coming off a loss where Mitchell Trubisky threw at least 35 passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Panthers are 17-0 OU (11.71 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 as an underdog of more than six points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Steelers are 0-21 OU (-7.17 ppg) since Oct 01, 2015 coming off a game where they had less than 215 passing yards.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Chargers are 0-11 ATS (-8.50 ppg) as a favorite off a loss as a dog in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.

NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Browns are 0-17 OU (-8.97 ppg) at home off a loss when they are facing a team that is getting less than 55% of their first downs passing.

[BettorsChat]

Titans’ star RB Derrick Henry not expected to play vs. Saints.

[BettorsChat]

With the Vikings now having wrapped up a playoff slot, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Minnesota to play injured RB Alexander Mattison. And so with Dalvin Cook out and Mattison hobbled, Monday night figures to be the Mike Boone show.

The @Eagles plan to make RB Jordan Howard inactive vs. @dallascowboys today.

Redskins vs. Giants today is the Race for Chase. These two teams are jockeying for the second overall pick in April’s NFL draft and the potential chance to draft Ohio St. DE Chase Young. Today’s loser might just be the winner and today’s winner might just be the loser.

[BettorsChat]

Eagles’ WR Nelson Agholor, listed as questionable for Sunday’s game due to a knee injury, will not play vs. Cowboys, per source.

Players out Sunday include Duane Brown, A.J. Green, Kiko Alonso, Larry Warford, Vonn Bell, Adam Humphries, Adoree Jackson, Richie Incognito, Josh Jacobs, Leighton Vander Esch, Lane Johnson, Taylor Gabriel.

Players returning from injury Sunday include Daniel Jones, Vance McDonald, Hunter Renfrow, Luke Willson, Damien Williams.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 16
December 22, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Saints (-2.5/47) at Titans, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: With Houston having wrapped up the AFC South, it’s now not a given that Tennessee star RB Derrick Henry will continue to play through the hamstring injury that has been bothering him for weeks. He was downgraded to ‘questionable’ despite practicing on Friday as the Bucs’ coughed up an opportunity to tie or win the game late. The Titans can still finish as the AFC’s final wild card, so we’ll see if Henry opts to play if he wakes up feeling well. Count on Dion Lewis, Khari Blasingame and Dalyn Dawkins, just elevated to the active roster, to divide the touches if Henry ultimately doesn’t add to his league-leading 271 rushing attempts. Corner Adoree Jackson and WR Adam Humphries have been ruled out for Tennessee while DL Jeffery Simmons is listed as questionable.

New Orleans will be playing its first game outdoors since a Nov. 17 win in Tampa and will be playing just their second in seven outings. The Saints are 4-1 SU and ATS with the elements involved but may have to deal with a little rain in Nashville. Ironically, they’ll have to fare well outdoors to ensure most of their playoff run comes In the friendly enclosed confines of the Superdome. Drew Brees looks to build off on his record-setting Monday night but offensive linemen Terron Armstead, Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk have all missed been listed as questionable while guard Larry Warford hasn’t practiced. New Orleans is hoping for help from Minnesota against Green Bay on Monday night since it remains in the mix for a No. 1 seed, so this is a very important game for this group. RB Alvin Kamara hasn’t scored since Week 3, but he and Latavius Murray could have big days here to lighten Brees’ load if it’s raining. Michael Thomas has 133 receptions and needs just 11 to set the single-season record. The total has come down from 50.5 but the number has held steady despite uncertainty over Henry.

Steelers (-3/37) at Jets, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: JuJu Smith-Schuster announced on his Instagram that he’d be returning for the first time since Nov. 14, which means QB Devlin Hodges will be able to work with a receiving corps that’s at full strength for the first time since taking over as the full-time starter. He has performed better on the road than he has at home, helping beat the Chargers, Bengals and Cardinals. None of those teams have a winning record, but neither do the Jets, who can finish only 7-9 if they win out with an upset here and against a Bills team that’s already locked into the No. 5 spot and may not play many starters next week. As far as this week goes, New York will get back safety Jamal Adams back to anchor the defense and has a motivated LeVeon Bell helping take pressure off Sam Darnold.

The Steelers are looking to earn a wild card spot and have to play at the Ravens next week, making this a must-win. Head coach Mike Tomlin stuck with Hodges despite his four interceptions last week, pondering a return to Mason Rudolph. There’s no question that a quick hook is certainly possible, but the Hodges will probably get a fairly long leash unless he turns the ball over since the team simply needs him to not be a burden considering he’s at the helm of the league’s 30th-ranked offense. Ultimately, Pittsburgh is still banking on its defense to create turnovers against Darnold, who has been at his best at home but leads in the 31st-ranked offense against a Pittsburgh group that leads the NFL in sacks (49) and ranks second in takeaways (35). The total has dipped from 38.5 to 37. Tight end Vance McDonald is set to return for the Steelers.

Ravens (-10/49) at Browns, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Baltimore can wrap up homefield advantage for the entire AFC postseason if it picks up a victory here against one of the two teams it has lost to this season. The Ravens have rolled off 10 straight wins since suffering their only home loss, falling 40-25 to close out September. Cleveland ranks 27th in the NFL in rush defense and will look to stop the league’s most effective ground attack, so Lamar Jackson is a good bet to significantly add to his total of 1,103 rushing yards, an all-time single-season record for a quarterback. Baltimore has scored a league-best 33.7 points per game, average 202.1 yards on the ground and has already notched the most touchdowns (58) it has managed in any given season.

The dysfunctional Browns look to finish the season as effectively as they can and are hoping to close their home schedule with a 5-3 record. WR Odell Beckham, Jr. will play through a groin injury and Jarvis Landry is dealing with a hip issue that may require offseason surgery. DT Sheldon Richardson didn’t practice earlier in the week due to a back problem but hopes to play, while center J.C. Tretter is dealing with a knee issue for an offensive line that has numerous bumps and bruises. Nick Chubb has a league-high 1,408 yards rushing, so count on the clock running throughout this contest given how often we’ll see the ball on the ground. Temperatures will be in the 40s and wind gusts of 10-to-15 miles per hour shouldn’t be overly intrusive.

Raiders at Chargers (-7.5/45.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: This game may carry no playoff implications by the time these kick off, but these vagabond franchises are still vying to finish second in the AFC West, making this one of the more attractive matchups in the late afternoon block. Oakland opens the day alive to reach the playoffs and is looking to snap a four-game losing streak. Jon Gruden’s team has managed just 12 points in the second half of games over the past five games, while L.A. is finally escaping the plight of playing in a soccer stadium where most of the fans root for the visiting team. Although the Raiders are moving to Las Vegas and played their final contest in Oakland last week, they’ll probably have more fans in Carson than the Chargers, who have gone 11-10 in their temporary home since moving to San Diego.

Rain will add to the festivities as these teams square off with a backdrop of it being the second-to-last game that Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon suit up in for the Chargers. The talented running back fumbled twice last week but ran for a season-high 108 yards the first time he faced the Raiders, helping lead to a 26-24 Week 10 win. Oakland has failed to cover in five straight weeks and won’t have talented rookie RB Josh Jacobs for Derek Carr to hand the ball to and keep a talented L.A. front seven from coming after the Raiders’ quarterback. He’s being held out with a shoulder injury. DeAndre Washington is expected to get the bulk of the work at tailback.

Cardinals at Seahawks (-9/51), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Seattle will look to remain alive for the No. 1 seed in the entire NFC by taking care of business at home over the next two weeks with division mates Arizona and San Francisco visiting. The Seahawks’ most lopsided win of the season came at Arizona in a 27-10 Week 4 victory. It appears that the team will take the cautious approach with key defensive starters Jadeveon Clowney, Ziggy Ansah, Mychal Hendricks , Quandre Diggs and Shaquill Griffin all potentially sitting. Linebacker Bobby Wagner has been dealing with an ankle injury. Considering that defeating the 49ers next week will give them the West Division regardless of what happens here. Seattle has matched a league-record with 10 wins by eight or fewer points.

The Seahawks are 4-1 in games Diggs has started since Nov. 11 and have been exceptionally effective, so his absence could be an issue against Kyler Murray if the rookie standout can get it going. Kenyan Drake is coming off a four-touchdown game against Cleveland and speedy WR Christian Kirk has been cleared to play, so this could be a much tighter game than you might expect. Rain will likely be part of the equation in the second half of this one, so it wouldn’t be a good idea for either team to start slowly since finding a rhythm in inclement weather is tough to accomplish. A first-half over call would be my recommendation.

Cowboys (-2/46) at Eagles, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: The most meaningful game on the Sunday slate boils down to Carson Wentz’s ability to keep pace with a top-ranked Dallas offense that has struggled with consistency but dominated the first meeting between these teams, prevailing 37-10 on Oct. 20. Ezekiel Elliott ran for 111 yards and will be given every opportunity to loosen up the Philly defense the way he managed to in last week’s lopsided win over the Rams. Philadelphia has lost all five games he’s suited up for the Cowboys in against Philadelphia. Dallas is looking for consecutive NFC East titles for the first time since 1996.

WR Nelson Agholor is questionable to play for the Eagles, while RB Jordan Howard is also wearing that tag. Tackle Lane Johnson won’t suit up, so Philadelphia will be without one of their top offensive linemen in this one. DE Derek Barnett has missed the last two games with an ankle injury, but the hope is that he’ll suit up to try and help contain a Cowboys offense that has helped produce a 7-0 record when they top 30 points but have contributed to an 0-7 mark when they’ve failed to. Weather should be mild as far as December in Philly typically goes, so both attacks are likely to gain traction. Wentz has been able to find a rhythm of late throwing to his tight ends and Greg Ward, Jr., while Dak Prescott has been sharp of late and doesn’t appear on the injury report with his shoulder issue. Cooper Rush would be called upon if Prescott gets banged up.

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 16
Tony Mejia

Saints (-2.5/47) at Titans, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: With Houston having wrapped up the AFC South, it’s now not a given that Tennessee star RB Derrick Henry will continue to play through the hamstring injury that has been bothering him for weeks. He was downgraded to ‘questionable’ despite practicing on Friday as the Bucs’ coughed up an opportunity to tie or win the game late. The Titans can still finish as the AFC’s final wild card, so we’ll see if Henry opts to play if he wakes up feeling well. Count on Dion Lewis, Khari Blasingame and Dalyn Dawkins, just elevated to the active roster, to divide the touches if Henry ultimately doesn’t add to his league-leading 271 rushing attempts. Corner Adoree Jackson and WR Adam Humphries have been ruled out for Tennessee while DL Jeffery Simmons is listed as questionable.

New Orleans will be playing its first game outdoors since a Nov. 17 win in Tampa and will be playing just their second in seven outings. The Saints are 4-1 SU and ATS with the elements involved but may have to deal with a little rain in Nashville. Ironically, they’ll have to fare well outdoors to ensure most of their playoff run comes In the friendly enclosed confines of the Superdome. Drew Brees looks to build off on his record-setting Monday night but offensive linemen Terron Armstead, Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk have all missed been listed as questionable while guard Larry Warford hasn’t practiced. New Orleans is hoping for help from Minnesota against Green Bay on Monday night since it remains in the mix for a No. 1 seed, so this is a very important game for this group. RB Alvin Kamara hasn’t scored since Week 3, but he and Latavius Murray could have big days here to lighten Brees’ load if it’s raining. Michael Thomas has 133 receptions and needs just 11 to set the single-season record. The total has come down from 50.5 but the number has held steady despite uncertainty over Henry.

Steelers (-3/37) at Jets, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: JuJu Smith-Schuster announced on his Instagram that he’d be returning for the first time since Nov. 14, which means QB Devlin Hodges will be able to work with a receiving corps that’s at full strength for the first time since taking over as the full-time starter. He has performed better on the road than he has at home, helping beat the Chargers, Bengals and Cardinals. None of those teams have a winning record, but neither do the Jets, who can finish only 7-9 if they win out with an upset here and against a Bills team that’s already locked into the No. 5 spot and may not play many starters next week. As far as this week goes, New York will get back safety Jamal Adams back to anchor the defense and has a motivated LeVeon Bell helping take pressure off Sam Darnold.

The Steelers are looking to earn a wild card spot and have to play at the Ravens next week, making this a must-win. Head coach Mike Tomlin stuck with Hodges despite his four interceptions last week, pondering a return to Mason Rudolph. There’s no question that a quick hook is certainly possible, but the Hodges will probably get a fairly long leash unless he turns the ball over since the team simply needs him to not be a burden considering he’s at the helm of the league’s 30th-ranked offense. Ultimately, Pittsburgh is still banking on its defense to create turnovers against Darnold, who has been at his best at home but leads in the 31st-ranked offense against a Pittsburgh group that leads the NFL in sacks (49) and ranks second in takeaways (35). The total has dipped from 38.5 to 37. Tight end Vance McDonald is set to return for the Steelers.

Ravens (-10/49) at Browns, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Baltimore can wrap up homefield advantage for the entire AFC postseason if it picks up a victory here against one of the two teams it has lost to this season. The Ravens have rolled off 10 straight wins since suffering their only home loss, falling 40-25 to close out September. Cleveland ranks 27th in the NFL in rush defense and will look to stop the league’s most effective ground attack, so Lamar Jackson is a good bet to significantly add to his total of 1,103 rushing yards, an all-time single-season record for a quarterback. Baltimore has scored a league-best 33.7 points per game, average 202.1 yards on the ground and has already notched the most touchdowns (58) it has managed in any given season.

The dysfunctional Browns look to finish the season as effectively as they can and are hoping to close their home schedule with a 5-3 record. WR Odell Beckham, Jr. will play through a groin injury and Jarvis Landry is dealing with a hip issue that may require offseason surgery. DT Sheldon Richardson didn’t practice earlier in the week due to a back problem but hopes to play, while center J.C. Tretter is dealing with a knee issue for an offensive line that has numerous bumps and bruises. Nick Chubb has a league-high 1,408 yards rushing, so count on the clock running throughout this contest given how often we’ll see the ball on the ground. Temperatures will be in the 40s and wind gusts of 10-to-15 miles per hour shouldn’t be overly intrusive.

Raiders at Chargers (-7.5/45.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: This game may carry no playoff implications by the time these kick off, but these vagabond franchises are still vying to finish second in the AFC West, making this one of the more attractive matchups in the late afternoon block. Oakland opens the day alive to reach the playoffs and is looking to snap a four-game losing streak. Jon Gruden’s team has managed just 12 points in the second half of games over the past five games, while L.A. is finally escaping the plight of playing in a soccer stadium where most of the fans root for the visiting team. Although the Raiders are moving to Las Vegas and played their final contest in Oakland last week, they’ll probably have more fans in Carson than the Chargers, who have gone 11-10 in their temporary home since moving to San Diego.

Rain will add to the festivities as these teams square off with a backdrop of it being the second-to-last game that Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon suit up in for the Chargers. The talented running back fumbled twice last week but ran for a season-high 108 yards the first time he faced the Raiders, helping lead to a 26-24 Week 10 win. Oakland has failed to cover in five straight weeks and won’t have talented rookie RB Josh Jacobs for Derek Carr to hand the ball to and keep a talented L.A. front seven from coming after the Raiders’ quarterback. He’s being held out with a shoulder injury. DeAndre Washington is expected to get the bulk of the work at tailback.

Cardinals at Seahawks (-9/51), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Seattle will look to remain alive for the No. 1 seed in the entire NFC by taking care of business at home over the next two weeks with division mates Arizona and San Francisco visiting. The Seahawks’ most lopsided win of the season came at Arizona in a 27-10 Week 4 victory. It appears that the team will take the cautious approach with key defensive starters Jadeveon Clowney, Ziggy Ansah, Mychal Hendricks , Quandre Diggs and Shaquill Griffin all potentially sitting. Linebacker Bobby Wagner has been dealing with an ankle injury. Considering that defeating the 49ers next week will give them the West Division regardless of what happens here. Seattle has matched a league-record with 10 wins by eight or fewer points.

The Seahawks are 4-1 in games Diggs has started since Nov. 11 and have been exceptionally effective, so his absence could be an issue against Kyler Murray if the rookie standout can get it going. Kenyan Drake is coming off a four-touchdown game against Cleveland and speedy WR Christian Kirk has been cleared to play, so this could be a much tighter game than you might expect. Rain will likely be part of the equation in the second half of this one, so it wouldn’t be a good idea for either team to start slowly since finding a rhythm in inclement weather is tough to accomplish. A first-half over call would be my recommendation.

Cowboys (-2/46) at Eagles, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: The most meaningful game on the Sunday slate boils down to Carson Wentz’s ability to keep pace with a top-ranked Dallas offense that has struggled with consistency but dominated the first meeting between these teams, prevailing 37-10 on Oct. 20. Ezekiel Elliott ran for 111 yards and will be given every opportunity to loosen up the Philly defense the way he managed to in last week’s lopsided win over the Rams. Philadelphia has lost all five games he’s suited up for the Cowboys in against Philadelphia. Dallas is looking for consecutive NFC East titles for the first time since 1996.

WR Nelson Agholor is questionable to play for the Eagles, while RB Jordan Howard is also wearing that tag. Tackle Lane Johnson won’t suit up, so Philadelphia will be without one of their top offensive linemen in this one. DE Derek Barnett has missed the last two games with an ankle injury, but the hope is that he’ll suit up to try and help contain a Cowboys offense that has helped produce a 7-0 record when they top 30 points but have contributed to an 0-7 mark when they’ve failed to. Weather should be mild as far as December in Philly typically goes, so both attacks are likely to gain traction. Wentz has been able to find a rhythm of late throwing to his tight ends and Greg Ward, Jr., while Dak Prescott has been sharp of late and doesn’t appear on the injury report with his shoulder issue. Cooper Rush would be called upon if Prescott gets banged up.