NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (Thur., Dec. 12 - Mon., Dec. 16)

[Udog]

TNF - Jets at Ravens
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Jets (5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS) rebounded from an embarrassing loss to the previous winless Bengals to sneak past the rival Dolphins, 22-21. New York won for the fourth time in the last five games, but time will likely run out on a long-shot playoff berth following a 1-7 start. In spite of allowing 21 points, the Jets held the Dolphins out of the end zone as Miami settled for seven field goals.

New York used the newly-instituted pass interference challenge to its advantage after an incomplete pass by Sam Darnold on third down and 18 at the Dolphins’ 46 yard-line. After review, Miami cornerback Nik Needham interfered with Jets’ receiver Vyncint Smith to give New York a fresh set of downs. Darnold completed a 12-yard pass after the penalty to get the Jets in field goal range as Sam Ficken booted the game-winning kick from 44 yards out. The Dolphins managed the cover as five-point underdogs, making Darnold 0-4 ATS in four career starts against Miami.

The Ravens (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) continue to be a runaway train as they are currently on a path for home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. Baltimore picked up its ninth consecutive victory last Sunday in a 24-17 triumph at Buffalo as 6 ½-point favorites. The Ravens limited an opponent to 17 points or fewer for the seventh time during this nine-game hot streak, while allowing only one touchdown to the Bills, which came midway through the fourth quarter.

MVP candidate Lamar Jackson threw three touchdown passes, but was held to less than 170 yards passing for the third consecutive game. In the last six contests, Jackson has tossed 17 touchdowns to go along with no interceptions, while the Ravens’ quarterback enters Week 15 as one of nine players in the NFL that has rushed for over 1,000 yards.

GOING STREAKING

The Ravens are headed to the playoffs for the eighth time in 12 seasons since John Harbaugh took over as head coach. Prior to this season, Baltimore never won more than four straight regular season games under Harbaugh, as this nine-game winning streak is the longest since capturing five victories in a row under Brian Billick in 2006. The 2000 Super Bowl championship team finished that season on an 11-game hot streak (including three wins in the playoffs), while covering 10 times in that stretch.

TO BARK OR NOT TO BARK

The Jets have not been a reliable team to back in the role of a favorite this season by failing to cash in four opportunities when laying points. Obviously, they are not favored on Thursday against the Ravens, but New York has brought home the cash in its last three chances when listed as an underdog.

The caveat there is the Jets did this against the likes of the Redskins, Raiders, and Bengals. In the other six instances as a ‘dog, Adam Gase’s team has compiled a 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS mark with the lone upset win coming against the Cowboys in Week 6.

THURSDAY NIGHT FINALE

This marks the final Thursday night contest of 2019 as underdogs have posted a solid 10-4 ATS mark. Last week, the Bears became the sixth ‘dog to win outright on a Thursday night in their home victory over the Cowboys, but the largest ‘dog to pick up a victory in this scenario is Tampa Bay (+6 ½) in Week 2 at Carolina.

Double-digit favorites have put together a 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS mark on Thursdays, as the Patriots (-17) were the only heavy chalk to cash back in Week 6 over the Giants, 35-14.

The Ravens have won three of the last four Thursday contests, but lost in their previous Thursday affair at Cincinnati last season. The Jets dropped a 21-17 decision at Cleveland in its last Thursday matchup in 2018, snapping a modest two-game winning streak on Thursdays dating back to 2016.

SERIES HISTORY

These AFC squads haven’t met since 2016 when the Jets held off the Ravens at Met Life Stadium, 24-16 as 2 ½-point favorites. Baltimore squandered an early 10-0 lead as Jets’ running back Matt Forte scored a pair of touchdowns and racked up 154 all-purpose yards. The Ravens have won the last three matchups at M&T Bank Stadium dating back to 2007 with the most recent victory coming in 2013 by a 19-3 count.

TOTAL TALK

Oddsmakers sent out an opening total of 44 ½ and the number is holding steady at most betting shops but a few have pushed their number to 45.

Neither team has shown a strong total lean this season with Baltimore owning a 7-6 ‘over’ mark and New York holding a 7-6 record to the ‘under’ through 13 games.

Total bettors looking for a Thursday Night Football angle could be scratching their head as well, with the ‘under’ going 8-6 this season and the averaged combined score was 41 PPG.

Chris David dug into those numbers further and provided his thoughts on the opener for Week 14.

He said, “The Jets have played two primetime games this season and the ‘under’ has produced a 2-0 record and New York was the guilty party in both efforts, scoring a combined three points. Expecting New York to put forth a great offensive effort on a short week versus a quality team on the road is a stretch in my opinion. The Jets have only played three winning teams all season, all coming in the division and the offense mustered up 16 points in Week 1 against the Bills before the unit was blanked twice by the Patriots.”

To David’s point, the Jets scored 34 points at Washington in Week 11 but they only managed 11.8 PPG in five other road contests and that number drops to 9 PPG if you take out the 14 points the defense scored in their 30-14 loss at New England in Week 3. Despite the inept offense, the Jets own a 4-2 ‘over’ mark on the road and that’s attributed to New York’s poor defensive numbers (25.8 PPG).

Will Baltimore’s top-ranked scoring offense (33.1 PPG) light up New York? David isn’t sold on a power surge from this host this Thursday.

“Baltimore has had a great season but if you want to nitpick its hot run, the team has been stronger on the road and it has gone through the motions at home against inferior teams. In two spots listed as double-digit home favorites, the Ravens only scored 23 in each contest against the Cardinals and Bengals. I believe Baltimore will get four to five scores in this game but knowing the Jets own the second-best rushing defense has me thinking field goals instead of touchdowns. My first lean would be to the Ravens Team Total Under (29 ½) and I believe we’ll see a 23-10, 26-13 win by the Ravens,” added David.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

Handicapper Joe Nelson checks in with an analysis on the close calls that have benefited Baltimore this season, “Five wins this season for the Ravens have come by seven or fewer points as there have been many close calls despite the league-leading +194 scoring differential and last week’s win in Buffalo featured minimal production with only 257 net yards and a few missed officiating calls were in Baltimore’s favor.”

This is the third time this season that the Ravens are listed as a double-digit favorite, but Nelson points out that hasn’t fared well for them, “This spread is currently priced as the second-largest for the Ravens under Harbaugh who took over in 2008 with the only exception a 2011 game vs. the Colts started by Dan Orlovsky. Despite the great success this season, Baltimore has lost six consecutive games against the spread as a home favorite of six or more points. The Jets have been a double-digit underdog three times this season and lost those games by a combined score of 94-20.”

LINE MOVEMENT

The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas opened the Ravens as 14 ½-point favorites on Monday. That line has remained steady at the Westgate, while the total sits at 45. The weather should not be a factor on Thursday as game time temperatures are expected to be in the mid-30’s with clear skies.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


LES COUSINS NONDANGEREUX

If you would have said that Kirk Cousins would be in the Top-10 in MVP odds after Week 4, you would have been laughed out of the room. Fast forward to Week 15 and the Minnesota Vikings quarterback has his team at 9-4, battling for a division title and sits second in QB ratintg. This week, Cousins and the Vikes head to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers.

The Chargers have been playing exceptional pass defense of late as they have the second-best passing yards against oveer their last three games and have held Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr and Patrick Mahomes to just 561 yards combined and three touchdowns in three of their last five games. The numbers look even better when you look at all their games since November: 171.4 yards passing and only one opposing QB to throw for more than one TD.

Cousins is 3-4 SU on the road this year and has a completion percentage 17 points lower on the road than at home. Even with Adam Thielen returning to practice after missing five games, we are taking the Under on Cousins’ passing total of 273.5, a number he is 3-4 O/U on the road this year.


JAGUARS PLAYING DEAD

Last week the Jaguars and their 31st-ranked run defense lost their best linebacker and leading tackler in Myles Jack. This week they lost another linebacker in Quincy Williams who is the fourth linebacker that Jacksonville has had to put on the shelf. The Jaguars have just flat-out quit defensively and should be faded for another three weeks.

This week’s running back who gets to pad his stats against a run defense that is allowing 163 yards rushing a game of late and 5.2 yards per carry is Josh Jacobs. The Oakland running back missed Week 14 with a shoulder problem but reports are that ROY contender has a good shot of starting this week. Things could obviously change between now and Sunday, but in a dream matchup versus a soft Jags’ D, we are going to monitor the situation closely and may even get a little discount on his total in what will be a higher risk/reward bet.

Jacobs needs just 246 yards rushing to top Saquon Barkley’s rookie-of-the-year mark of 1,307 yards (although Barkley added another 700-plus yards receiving) and he currently sits at -350 to win the Offensive ROY. We like the matchup more than anything and hope Jacobs’ recent injury gives us a better number on his rushing total. We are waiting for the Raiders RB to practice Thursday and Friday with no setbacks and will be riding the Over on his' rushing total on any number below 70 yards as we think 12-15 rushes is a realistic workload. If Jacobs does miss Week 15, DeAndre Washington will get the chance to carve up the Jaguars.


BREESIN’ PAST THE COLTS

The Indianapolis Colts have lost five of their last six with their only win coming against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Indy has been allowing the second-most passing yards since Week 12 (300 yards) and got torched for 467 yards through the air last week versus Jameis Winston. This week, the Colts will hit the primetime lights of Monday night and face the New Orleans Saints on the road where their defense has let four opposing QBs to surpass 295 yards this year.

Drew Brees is coming off a 349-yard performance where he lobbed five touchdowns in what was the NFL’s game of the year last week versus the 49ers. Since coming back from injury in Week 8, Brees is averaging 287 yards passing and that number jumps up to 330 yards a gamr in his four games in New Orleans.

We like Brees to keep his foot on the throttle as the Saints need to get a playoff game at home, even if it means the No. 2 seed. Jump on Brees’ Over 298.5 passing yards, a total he has eclipsed in four of his five home games this year.


THURSDAY NIGHT QUICKIE

Don’t have time to watch all the Thursday night game? The Jets will do that to you, no worries. It’s a good thing that the Baltimore Ravens lead the league in first-quarter scoring at 8.3 points per the opening frame. The Jets will likely be missing a handful of starters on the defensive side of the ball as safety Jamal Adams, DT Quinnen Williams and a pair of starting defensive backs are all doubtful.

This Jets’ defense has seen Miami (twice), Cincinnati, Oakland, Washington, the Giants and Jacksonville in consecutive weeks — that’s five of the six-worst offenses. New York might be down 10 before it knows what hit them. If you're looking for a quick banger, take the Ravens -3.5 first-quarter spread.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


SACK IT TO ME

Another week and another bet against Kyle Allen getting sacked into oblivion. The Carolina quarterback has been sacked 21 times over his last four games and has been taken down on average of four times a game over his 11 starts.

The Seattle Seahawks have an even worse pressure rate than the Panthers, allowing opposing defenses to pressure Russell Wilson at a 36-percent rate which is the third-worst in the league.

Allen is 4-0 O/U on sacks totals of 5.5 in his last four games and we hope the trend continues into Week 16. We are riding the Over 5.5 sacks on the Seahawks/Panthers matchup for Sunday afternoon.


A SWIFT KICK TO ALDRICK

The windiest conditions this Sunday belong to MetLife Stadium. The Dolphins and Giants will see wind speeds of 13.3 miles per hour on Sunday which could definitely disrupt each teams’ kicking game.

The Giants sit in dead-last in field goals attempted per game at 1.2 and their kicker, Aldrick Rosas is converting just 71 percent of his kicks with a long of 45 yards.

The Dolphins are attempting 1.8 field goals a game (23rd) and converting kicks at a 73-percent rate. They did, however, kick eight field goals last week and made seven which is more than half of Rosas’ season total of 15 attempts.

We like the Dolphins to kick the longest field goal (-130) and wouldn’t mind the Under 45.5 yards for the longest field goal scored.


LOCK PICKING

Last week, we won some money on Tom Brady’s interception to the Kansas City Chiefs. K.C. has been picking off opposing QBs at will of late, forcing seven INTs in its last three games (Rivers 4, Carr 2, Brady 1). This week, they get Denver rookie QB Drew Lock who has looked good out of the gates but has also thrown an interception in each of his two starts.

Since Week 12, the Chiefs’ opponents are averaging nearly 40 passes a game which could give Lock lots of opportunities to turn it over in through the air in what will be his first divisional road game. We actually like what Lock has done which is win straight up at +320 and at +175 in back-to-back weeks, but we think rookies will make mistakes at Arrowhead.

Take the Over 0.5 Drew Lock interceptions (-200). If you that is too juicy for your liking, add Kyle Allen Over 0.5 INTs for a -105 payout if your book lets you parlay player props.


GIVE IT AWAY

Last week, away favorites went 4-1 ATS pushing their monthly total to 17-9 (65%). On the year, road chalk has hit at 53%. This week, the New England Patriots (-9.5 @ CIN), Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5 @ WSH), Seattle Seahawks (-6.5 @ CAR), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5 @ DET), Cleveland Browns (-3 @ ARZ), Minnesota Vikings (-2.5 @ LAC) and the Los Angeles Rams (-1.5 @ DAL) round out the list of road favorites.

Of these matchups, we are more confident with the Buccaneers. Tampa has the best run defense in the league and should stuff Detroit running back Bo Scarborough who is averaging nearly 20 carries a game since Week 12. The Bucs have the best chance to win if they force David Blough and his 38.3 QBR to keep up with Jameis Winston through the air.

Tampa has a great chance to cover 3.5 points against a Bottom-10 defense and an offense that gained just 231 yards last week. Ride the away favorites trend and take the Buccaneers -3.5.


OF MOSTERT AND MEN

San Francisco running back Raheem Mostert has separated himself with the 49ers RBBC and has been given the most opportunities of late. Niners coach Kyle Shannahan has said the RB has deserved the extra attention in the offense as Mostert has four touchdowns in his last three games.

Mostert saw 40 of his team’s 63 offensive snaps and had the only two RB red zone carries last week. This also comes on the heels of him seeing 74 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 13. This week the Monster will face a middle-of-the-pack Atlanta rush defense that doesn’t have anything to play for.

We are backing Mostert to score a rushing TD for the fourth straight game.

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 15
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Panthers are 12-0 ATS (14.29 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 as a dog coming off a road loss where they failed to cover.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Chargers are 0-12-1 ATS (-7.92 ppg) since Oct 07, 2012 coming off a road win where they scored at least 30 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:
-- The Eagles are 0-8 ATS (-11.94 ppg) since Dec 17, 2017 coming off a game where Carson Wentz threw at least 40 passes.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
-- The Patriots are 0-11-1 OU (-9.96 ppg) since Oct 09, 2016 off a loss.

TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 8-0 OU (8.81 ppg) since Oct 28, 2018 coming off a game where Jameis Winston threw at least 40 passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Lions are 11-0 OU (8.55 ppg) since Dec 24, 2006 as a dog coming off a game as a dog that went under the total by at least 14 points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Steelers are 0-20 OU (-7.05 ppg) since Oct 01, 2015 when they threw for less than 215 yards last game.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
PLAY AGAINST: Teams which had at least 19 third down attempts last game and made fewer 50% of those teams are 52-72-7 ATS. Active against Philadelphia.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Chargers are 15-0 ATS (+10.13 ppg) as a dog when they are off a win as a favorite and they are averaging more than 27 points per game over their last three games.

NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Seahawks are 0-12 OU (-12.08 ppg) as a road favorite when they allowed at least five third down conversions in each of their last two games.

[Udog]

NFL Week 15 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather and Pros vs Joes
Patrick Everson

Dalvin Cook is working through a chest injury, but he's expected to play for Minnesota at the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. If Cook sits out, that's worth a half-point to the line at The SuperBook.

NFL Week 15 has some banged-up running backs, though that’s not impacting the line in all cases. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Running back Dalvin Cook (chest) is expected to play Sunday’s road game against the Los Angeles Chargers. “Cook would be worth a half-point if he was to be out,” Osterman said. Minnesota is already down to -1.5, after opening -3.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) will miss his fourth straight game, but Osterman said that was factored into the opening line for Pittsburgh’s home game against Buffalo. Tight end Vance McDonald (concussion) is out, and running back James Conner (shoulder) is questionable after missing the last three games.

“Conner is worth a half-point if he plays. Nothing for McDonald.” The Steelers opened 1-point favorites in the Sunday nighter, got bet up to -2.5 early in the week, then back to -1 Friday.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Several defensive players are either out or questionable against Atlanta, including cornerback Richard Sherman and end Dee Ford. “The 49ers’ defense is why we’ve seen that line come down a half-point.” San Francisco is giving 10.5 points.

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Running back Josh Jacobs (shoulder) is again questionable as the Raiders prepare to host Jacksonville. Jacobs sat out last week’s home loss to Tennessee. “Jacobs would be worth a half-point.” Oakland is a 7-point favorite.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Wideout Julian Edelman (knee/shoulder) is questionable at Cincinnati, which The SuperBook pegs worth a half-point if he sits. The Patriots are laying 10 points.


Weather Watch

CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY: It’s gonna be really damn cold Sunday on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. The high is 18 degrees, with winds of 10-15 mph that will surely make it feel chillier still. “The total has come down a half-point. But that total was put up on the low side initially, assuming that it would be really cold in Green Bay.” The total opened at 41 and ticked to 40.5.

DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: The forecast calls for a 70 percent chance of snow and a high of just 28 degrees, and a modest 10 mph breeze probably won’t make it feel any warmer. “The total has come down 1.5 points” from the opener of 46.5. The first move was actually up to 47, but the total dipped to 45 by Thursday night.

MIAMI AT NEW YORK GIANTS: The weather generally looks OK for MetLife Stadium, though the wind could approach 20 mph, prompting The SuperBook to move the total from 47.5 to 46.5.

BUFFALO AT PITTSBURGH: This is the Sunday night game, and it will be a chilly one, with the temperature around 30 along with 10-15 mph winds at Heinz Field. “The total hasn’t moved off of 37. That was already the lowest total on the board. It’s hard to push it any lower.” However, by lunch hour Friday in Vegas, The SuperBook took the total down another tick to 36.5.


Pros vs. Joes

DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: “There is some sharp action on the Broncos, and the public has really been all over the Chiefs ever since it was announced that Patrick Mahomes is playing.” Mahomes suffered a hand injury in last week’s win at New England, but he expects to be good to go Sunday.

Kansas City opened -10.5, quickly surged to -11.5, then was bet down to -9 by midweek before hiking to -10 Friday morning. The SuperBook ticked back to 9.5 Friday afternoon.
Reverse Line Moves

PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON: “A small reverse line move here. We’re down to Eagles -5.5 from -6, but the public money has mostly been on the Eagles.”

ATLANTA AT SAN FRANCISCO: The move here is toward the Falcons, but the host Niners are drawing more cash. “The line opened 49ers -11.5 and is down to -10.5. However, the public money is on the 49ers.”

MINNESOTA AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: This line has been cut in half, from Vikings -3 to -1.5, but Minnesota has the bulk of the action. “The public money is on the Vikings, especially on parlays.”

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 15
Joe Williams

We're rounding the corner and heading for home in the final few weeks of the National Football League regular season. Several teams are already well eliminated from the playoff chase, and a few are only hanging on by a thread in the 'In the Hunt' list. The Thursday Night Football game between the New York Jets-Baltimore Ravens saw the 'over' connect for a second consecutive game, as the TNF results ended up 7-7 for the 2019 season (there are no more Thursday games remaining).

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 14 8-8 10-6 7-9

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 100-107-1 100-107-1 90-113-5

The 'over/under' ended up going 8-8 for Week 14, which is usually the death knell for public bettors who tend to favor 'over' plays. Anyone chasing the 'over' on Sunday Night was in trouble, which has been the norm this season. The 'under' is now 11-4 on the SNF game, although over bettors have made inroads with a 4-3 record over the past seven installments.

We did see an uptick in the first-half last week as the 'over' went 10-6 in the first 30 minutes but once again, the scoring slowed down in the second-half and that resulted in a 9-7 mark to the low side. On the season, the 'under' has trended ahead the first-half (107-100-1), moreso in second-half (113-90-5).

Division Bell

In the six divisional battles in Week 14, the edge went to the 'under' yet again - including the two primetime divisional battles between the Seattle Seahawks-Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night and New York Giants-Philadephia Eagles on Monday night, with overtime to boot! The under is now 40-33 (54.8%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 14

Cincinnati at Cleveland Over (43.5) Cleveland 27, Cincinnati 19
Carolina at Atlanta Over (48) Atlanta 40, Carolina 20
Detroit at Minnesota Under (44) Minnesota 20, Detroit 7
Miami at N.Y. Jets Under (47) N.Y. Jets 22, Miami 21
Seattle at L.A. Rams Under (48) L.A. Rams 28, Seattle 12
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia Under (45) Philadelphia 23, N.Y. Giants 17 (OT)

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 15 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Houston at Tennessee: 47 ½ to 51 ½
Atlanta at San Francisco: 45 ½ to 48 ½
Indianapolis at New Orleans (MNF): 44 to 46 ½
Cleveland at Arizona: 47 to 49
Jacksonville at Oakland: 44 ½ to 46 ½
L.A. Rams at Dallas: 47 to 48 ½
Miami at N.Y. Giants: 48 to 46 ½
New England at Cincinnati: 40 to 41 ½
Tampa Bay at Detroit: 47 ½ to 46

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 15 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Atlanta at San Francisco: Over 98%
Houston at Tennessee: Over 96%
Minnesota at L.A. Chargers: Over 95%
Cleveland at Arizona: Over 90%
Jacksonville at Oakland: Over 87%
Seattle at Carolina: Over 85%
Indianapolis at New Orleans (MNF): Over 84%
New England at Cincinnati: Under 84%
Tampa Bay at Detroit: Over 84%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (75 percent) in the Buffalo at Pittsburgh (SNF) matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Denver at Kansas City (74 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 15

Week 14 Total Results

Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 2-4 31-38
NFC vs. NFC 2-1 22-22
AFC vs. AFC 3-2 20-19-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-1 27-27

Week 15 Action

Tampa Bay at Detroit: We get an old NFC Central matchup in the Motor City on Sunday. The Lions have struggled offensively, starting third-string quarterback David Blough in the past two. The Lions started out 2-0-1 SU, but they're 1-9 SU since, mostly because their defense has been awful. They have given up at least 19 points in 11 straight games, and 32.2 points per game (PPG) across their past five games at Ford Field. The Bucs have scored 28 or more points in three straight, and five of the past six, and the defense has been shabby, too. Tampa has allowed 27 or more points on 10 separate occasions. It's no surprise the 'over' has connected in 10 of their past 11 outings.

Philadelphia at Washington: These teams haven't met since Week 1, which seems like a world ago for the Redskins. They posted 27 points in that setback in Philly, their second-highest point total of the season. The good news for the Redskins is that their defense has been much better recently, allowing 19.0 PPG across the past three after yielding 31 or more points in four of the first five games. However, the offense is still trying to find their way with rookie QB Dwayne Haskins, and they're averaging just 12.5 PPG across the past 10 outings. For the Eagles, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five on the road, but the under is 5-2 in the past seven inside the division. The under is 8-2 in Washington's past 10, and 5-1 in the past six against NFC foes.

Chicago at Green Bay: The last time these two sides met it was a 10-3 victory by the Packers at Soldier Field in the very first game of the NFL regular season back on a Thursday in Week 1. The Packers offense has improved over time, especially at home, posting 20, 24, 42, 23, 27, 27 and 21 in their seven home games this season. While the under is 4-1 in Green Bay's past five, it's been their defense which is the key. For the Bears, they have shown some signs of improvement on offense lately, posting 24 on Thanksgiving against Detroit and 31 against Dallas on Thursday night. They'll be rested and ready to go. Since that three-point stinker in Week 1 the Bears have managed 21.2 points per game in six outings at home.

Houston at Tennessee: The Texans and Titans square off in Nashville for sole possession of first place in the AFC South. Public bettors are expecting a high-scoring affair, too, as this total has been on the move from an open of 47.5 to 51.5 as of Saturday morning. The Titans offense has been on fire since making the change from QB Marcus Mariota to QB Ryan Tannehill. Under Tannehill's leadership the Titans have posted 20 or more points in seven stragiht outings, going 6-1 SU while the 'over' has cashed in each of the seven outings. The offense has been particularly strong over the past four, posting 35, 42, 41 and 42 while allowing 20 or more points in six of the past seven. For the Texans, they're averaging 24.0 PPG on offense over the past three games, while yielding 29.5 PPG across the past four defensively.

Seattle at Carolina: The Panthers looked to be turning a corner with new QB Kyle Allen, but he has crashed back to Earth, the team fired head coach Ron Rivera and the defense has forgotten how to tackle and cover pass plays. The Panthers have yielded an un-Carolina-like 40, 29, 34, 29, 24, 20, 51, 26 and 27 across their past nine. The Seahawks hit the 'over' in their first two trips into the Eastern Time Zone, averaging 30.0 PPG, but they've scored just 22.0 PPG in their past two trips east while allowing just 14.5 PPG. In Seattle's past two road games they're also averaging just 14.5 PPG.

Miami at N.Y. Giants: The Dolphins offense has actually resembled an NFL-caliber offense lately, posting 20 or more points in four straight, hitting the 'over' in three of those games. That's a far cry from earlier in the season when they were the laughingstock of the league, posting just 42 total points over their first five outings. While the offense has improved, the defense is getting worse. They have yielded 22, 31, 41 and 37 over the past four contests. On the road they have allowed 27 or more points in four of their five outings, although the under is 3-2 in Miami's five games away from home. The Giants offense has been rather impotent for most of the season, but particularly so over the past three. They're averaging just 14.7 PPG across the past three, although the 'over' is 2-1 in the past three vs. AFC East foes.

Jacksonville at Oakland: The Raiders offense was humming along in October into early November, and Oakland was looking like a potential playoff team. However, Oakland went off the rails in an embarrasing 34-3 loss at N.Y. Jets back on Nov. 24 and they're yet to recover. The Raiders have averaging just 12.5 PPG across the past four outings, hitting the 'under' in three of those games. That's despite the defense, which has yielded 34, 40 and 42 over the past three. The Jaguars won't come close to approaching those totals, as these Cats have been rather toothless themselves. The Jags have posted 10, 11, 20, 13 and 3 over their past five outings, although three of their four highest offensive totals came from Sept. 29-Oct. 20, all on the road. The defense for the Jags has been putrid lately, too, allowing 45, 28, 42, 33 and 26 across the past five.

Minnesota at L.A. Chargers: The Bolts were able to hump up on the Jags last week, posting a season-high 45 points. In fact, their previous high was 30 points back in Week 1, so it was a rather shocking offensive performance. The over is 3-1 in the past four for the Bolts, as they're averaging 26.5 PPG on offense during the span while yielding 20.8 PPG defensively. The Vikings have posted 20 or more points in five straight, but they're coming off a surprising 20-7 win against the Lions which saw the 'under' easily hit, snapping a 4-0 over run. In their three previous games vs. AFC West foes this season, the over is a perfect 3-0, avearging 28.0 PPG while yielding 21.0 PPG.

L.A. Rams at Dallas: The Cowboys head into this must-win game with just 16.0 PPG across the past three outings, hitting the under in two of the past three. The under is 3-2 in the past five games at AT&T Stadium for the Cowboys. For the Rams, the under is on a 7-1 run thanks in part to an inconsistent offense, while the defense has been back after some early-season struggles. The Rams have yielded just 12, 7, 45, 7, 17, 10 and 10 across the past seven. Those 45 points came from Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, and not many...OK, no one...has a player like him this season. Some feel QB Dak Prescott has the potential to be just as dynamic, but the Cowboys have yet to beat a team over .500 so far this season.


Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with a spread of 10 points or more for Week 15, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 41.5 to 48.5 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

New England at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. ET): The Patriots are 'on to Cincinnati' after falling at home to the Chiefs. It's like deja vu from a few years ago. The Pats have plenty of video of the Bengals, as you likely heard of their latest video flap, which seems much ado about nothing. The Bengals have scored 19, 22, 10, 10, 13, 10, 17, 17 over their past seven, and they haven't scored more than 23 points all season. It's unlikely the six-time Super Bowl champs have to cheat to beat a one-win Bengals side. The under is 3-1 in the past four for the Bengals, and 7-3-2 over the past 12. The under is also 3-1 in the past four for the Patriots, mainly due to the offense struggling. They have posted just 16, 22, 13, 17 and 20 over the past five.

Denver at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. ET): The Broncos have changed over the rookie QB Drew Lock, and suddenly they're a juggernaut on offense. They have averaging 30.5 PPG with the former Mizzou star under center. Now, he returns to the state he starred in college. The defense has allowed 19 or morep oints in four of the past five, as the 'over' is 4-1 during thye span. These teams met on Oct. 17 on a Thursday, and that's the game QB Patrick Mahomes suffered his dislocated kneecap on a quarterback sneak. You can bet that play won't happen this week at Arrowhead. The Chiefs defense has been sharp over the past three, including last week's win in New England, allowing just 14.0 PPG over the past three for a 3-0 under mark during the stretch. The 'under' is 2-0 in both of Kansas City's games as a double-digit favorite this season.

Atlanta at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. ET): The 49ers are back home and looking to keep up their good work on offense. They rolled up 48 points last week in New Orleans, and they scored 37 and 36 in their previous two games at home. A lot of the headlines for the 49ers have been made by their defense, but lately it's been the offense doing it for Frisco. Speaking of the defense, more than half of their starting defense is nicked up and in danger of missing this week's game, so there is opportunity for the Falcons. They showed signs of life by hanging a 40-burger on Carolina last week at the Mercedes-Benz Dome. The Niners have been a double-digit favorite three times, with the over cashing in each of the past two instances. The Falcons were a double-digit 'dog just once this season, a stunning 26-9 straight-up win in New Orleans on Nov. 10.


Under the Lights

Buffalo at Pittsburgh (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Bills make their first appearance on Sunday Night Football since 2007. This one was flexed in to the SNF spot because of the playoff implications, but it might be a low-scoring game. The under is 5-1 in the past six for the Bills, as the defense has been sick lately. Buffalo is allowing just 24, 15, 3, 20, 19 and 9 over the past six. For Pittsburgh, undrafted rookie free-agent QB Devlin Hodges makes another start. He started on SNF before, a 24-17 road win against the Chargers, an 'under' result. The under is 3-0 in Hodges' three NFL starts so far, as he has posting 23, 20 and 24, while the defense has stepped up to allow just 17, 13 and 17. Pittsburgh is actually on a 5-0 under run, and the under is 10-3 in their 13 games overall, as the defense has picked up the pace with offensive stars leaving in the offense and then the remaining stars injured this season. Head coach Mike Tomlin has done an unbelievable job with this bunch.

Indianapolis at New Orleans (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Colts have hit the 'over' in three of the past four, as the defense has gone south lately. They have yielded 38 and 31 across the past two outings, while the offense is averaging 25.5 PPG across the past four. For the Saints, they're a hard team to figure. They have allowed just 18 and 17 in their past two on the road, but they were shelled for 46 at home last week, and they're allowing 35.0 PPG across the past three under the Superdome roof. One thing that remains consistent - the offense. They have posted 46, 26, 34 and 34 across the past four outings, hitting the over in three of the past four. In their only other home game against an AFC South foe they hit the over vs. Houston in Week 1, 30-28.

[Udog]

NFL Betting Stats heading into Sun Wk 15:

Road Teams: 116-88-5 ATS
Home Teams: 88-116-5 ATS

Favorites: 92-112-5 ATS
Underdogs: 112-92-5 ATS

Home Faves: 52-76-5 ATS
Home Dogs: 36-40 ATS

Road Faves: 40-36 ATS
Road Dogs: 76-52-5 ATS

O/U: 101-108

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


EDELMAN OF HONOR

We haven’t played a Julian Edelman total all year and that’s a shame because he has been a bankable WR on the Over. The New England receiver has seen double-digit targets in eight straight games and will face a Cincinnati Bengals defense that has allowed slot receivers Cooper Kupp, Cole Beasley, Jarvis Landry and Dede Westbrook to average 6.25 catches for 112 yards.

Edelman is questionable ahead of Sunday’s matchup with the Patriots which usually doesn’t mean much in New England. The Bengals should be a layup for the Pats, but with how poorly the offense has been playing all year, Tom Brady will need the reigning Super Bowl MVP to suit up on Sunday.

Monitor the WR’s status for Sunday and if the receiver is a go, it should be in a non-limited roll. We are willing to take the Over on an Edelman reception total below eight and a yardage total below 86 yards. Edelman has topped 85 yards and 7.5 receptions in four of his last six games.


A LAME DUCK

We hit the Pittsburgh Steelers team total Over 21.5 last week and that’s a ride we don’t want to be on again. Devlin Hodges has attempted 20, 21 and 19 passes over his three starts this year, he won’t have JuJu Smith-Schuster again this week and he faces the Bills’ No. 5 DVOA pass defense.

Hodges’ yardage total sits at 195.5 yards which seems a bit high considering he is averaging 165 passing yards in his three starts versus the No. 20, No. 13 and No. 29 DVOA passing defenses.

The Steelers are content to pound the ball as their 35 rushes a game over their last three weeks is tied for the most in the league. Take Hodges' Under on his 195.5 passing yardage total on this Sunday night showdown.


EAGLE AID

Even at 6-7, the Philadelphia Eagles have a chance to win the NFC East. It may be a difficult task for this offense to win games down the stretch with an array of injuries to its receiving core, running backs and offensive linemen.

RB Jordan Howard is expected to miss Week 15 against Washington, which leaves Miles Sander and Boston Scott to split carries behind an offensive line that could be without its most important piece. PFF’s No. 2 tackle Lane Johnson has been ruled out for the contest meaning Carson Wentz will likely see more pressure than the team’s 30 percent average on the year (18th most).

Washington’s defense isn’t as bad as other basement-dwelling teams as it sits 19th in total DVOA. On top of playing the Under on the Eagles’ team total of 23.5, we are going to fade Eagles QB Carson Wentz and play his Under 262.5 passing yards as we don’t think he has the supporting cast to do it this week.


ONE, TWO, THREE, FOURNETTE

The lifeless Jacksonville Jaguars will not have the services of their leading wideout D.J. Chark this week, leaving a glaring hole in the offenses’ ability to stretch the field. With QB Gardner Minshew looking at Dede Westbrook, Keenan Cole and Chris Conley as his top WRs, we imagine the best course for this offense is to run it through Leonard Fournette this week against the Oakland Raiders.

The Raiders have a bad pass defense (31st) and an equally bad rush defense (31st) so Doug Marrone getting Fournette involved in the passing and rushing game should be a priority. The Jags RB has averaged 18 carries and nearly 10 targets a game over the last three weeks.

We like the Over on Fournette’s total yards of 118.5 yards in a game that could see a lot of yardage/points if both defenses lay down as they have in previous weeks.

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 15
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Bears at Packers (-4 ½, 40 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Green Bay (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) can move one step closer towards wrapping up the NFC North title with a victory at home. The Packers rebounded from the Week 12 beatdown at the hands of the 49ers to take care of the Giants and Redskins the last two weeks. Green Bay failed to cash as 13-point favorites last Sunday in a 20-15 triumph over Washington, but the Packers are the only team in the NFL that has not suffered consecutive ATS losses this season.

It may be too little, too late for the defending NFC North champion Bears (7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS) to make the playoffs, but Chicago is riding a three-game winning streak heading into Lambeau Field. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is coming off consecutive three-touchdown performances against the Lions and Cowboys, while helping Chicago pick up only its fourth cover of the season in a Week 14 home underdog victory over Dallas, 31-24.

The Packers held off the Bears in the season opener at Soldier Field, 10-3 as 3 ½-point underdogs. Green Bay owns a 6-1 record in its last seven meetings with Chicago dating back to 2016, as the Packers have won three straight home matchups. The Bears are listed as a road underdog for the third time this season, but are 0-2 SU/ATS with losses to the Eagles and Rams.

Best Bet: Packers 27, Bears 21


Texans at Titans (-3, 51) – 1:00 PM EST

The race for the top spot in the AFC South likely won’t be decided on Sunday, regardless of who wins this important contest at Nissan Stadium. These two division rivals hook up twice in the final three weeks of the season, as Tennessee (8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) has caught fire following a slow start. The Titans made a change at quarterback seven games ago as Ryan Tannehill has led Tennessee to a 6-1 SU/ATS record to pull into first place tie, while averaging 37.5 points per game during this current four-game winning streak.

The Texans (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) fell into the expected letdown spot last week after defeating the Patriots as a home underdog in Week 13. Denver rolled Houston, 38-24 as eight-point underdogs to prevent the Texans from winning three consecutive games for the first time this season. The good news for the Texans this week is they have yet to drop back-to-back contests in 2019, while cashing in five of seven opportunities in the underdog role.

The home team has captured the last six matchups since 2016, as the Texans have been limited to 17 points or fewer in their past three visits to Nashville, all losses. Tennessee is currently on a 7-0 streak to the OVER with Tannehill at quarterback, while Houston is 2-1 to the OVER in three road games with totals closing at 50 or higher.

Best Bet: Houston 28, Tennessee 20


Rams at Cowboys – 4:25 PM EST

Two teams going in opposite directions heading down the stretch, yet the colder team has a clearer path to the playoffs than the hotter squad. The Rams (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS) captured the NFC title last season, but need to likely win out and receive help to return to the postseason for the third consecutive year. Los Angeles is fresh off its fifth win in the past seven games after routing Seattle last Sunday, 28-12 as short home favorites. The Rams’ defense has stepped up in the second half of the season by limiting six of the previous seven opponents to 17 points or less, while riding a 7-1 run to the UNDER the last eight games.

The Cowboys (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS) don’t own a winning record with three weeks remaining in the season, but still have the inside track on hosting a first round game and grabbing the NFC East title. Dallas can themselves by beating Philadelphia on the road next week for the season sweep of the Eagles, but the Cowboys need to put an end to a three-game skid immediately. The Cowboys still have not defeated a team that sits above the .500 mark, while possessing a dreadful 0-7 record this season when scoring below 30 points.

Los Angeles bounced Dallas from the playoffs last season with a 30-22 home victory in the divisional round. The Rams covered as 7 ½-point favorites after jumping out to a 23-7 lead before the Cowboys made it interesting late. L.A. has put together an 18-5 road record under head coach Sean McVay, which includes a 35-30 triumph at AT&T Stadium in 2017 as five-point underdogs.

Best Bet: Rams 23, Cowboys 20


BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 49 – Browns at Cardinals

This total moved up from 47 earlier in the week as a pair of Heisman Trophy winners from Oklahoma square off with Baker Mayfield facing Kyler Murray. The Browns have not cashed consecutive OVERS this season, coming off a 27-19 victory over the Bengals last week on a 43 total. Cleveland is favored on the road for the fourth time this season as the Browns have scored 13, 19, and 23 points in those games, while the lone OVER came in a 24-19 setback at Denver on a 39 total. The Cardinals have tallied only 24 points in the past two losses to the Steelers and Rams as their offense has faltered since November.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

Tampa Bay is trying to salvage a rough season by winning four of its past five games to improve to 6-7. The Buccaneers travel to Detroit to face the Lions, who are riding a six-game losing streak. Tampa Bay opened as a four-point favorite when the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas released Week 15 lines last week. However, the Bucs have moved up to six-point favorites, which is the biggest number Tampa Bay is laying this season.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Seahawks are coming off their first road loss of the season in a 28-12 defeat to the Rams last week. Seattle hits the highway once again on Sunday to face struggling Carolina, as the Seahawks are 3-0 in the Eastern Time Zone this season. However, the Seahawks were no more than a two-point favorite in any of those wins against the Steelers, Browns, and Eagles. Carolina has dropped five consecutive games since a 5-3 start, but the Panthers are six-point home underdogs as they are receiving points at Bank of America Stadium for the first time since a season-opening loss to the Rams.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Broncos have been one of the best bets in the NFL since early October by covering seven of their last nine games. Denver is 2-0 SU/ATS with rookie Drew Lock starting at quarterback the last two weeks, as the former University of Missouri standout returns to his home state to face the Chiefs. However, Kansas City has owned Denver through the years by winning eight straight meetings since 2015, including a 30-6 blowout in October. The Chiefs have won nine games this season and covered eight times in those victories as Kansas City is a nine-point favorite.

[Udog]

SNF - Bills at Steelers
Matt Blunt

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

I'm not even entirely sure that the NFL's concept of flexing games into the prime time SNF slot has was around the last time the Buffalo Bills were considered to be a candidate for that, but here they are in 2019, sitting at 9-4 SU and flexed into the SNF game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Both teams have been great success stories in the NFL this season, and if the playoffs were to start today, they would each be out on the road as a Wildcard team looking to upset the Chiefs or Texans. It's a big game for both without question, as the winner – especially if it's Buffalo – has the inside track on securing a playoff berth. And while I'm sure both fan bases are excited to see their squads that were heavily critiqued (Buffalo) or left for dead (Pittsburgh) at the beginning of October are happy to get the bright light treatment, but from a betting perspective, this game doesn't offer a whole lot.

But after grabbing a win with the LA Rams last week, let's see if we can find a potentially profitable way to attack this week's SNF game.

Total Talk

This total opened up at the key number of 37 pretty much everywhere, and throughout the week it's been 'under' money trickling in each day. Currently the total currently sits at 35.5/36 depending where you look, as that 'under' money has garnered respect in the market, and any time it does fall off such a key number like 37 you should treat it as such.

Both teams have been 'under' machines this season as they each come into this game with 3-10 O/U records. Those results have been in large part because of the play from the two defenses, as both are stout, and in Pittsburgh's case, great at taking the ball away. Pittsburgh comes into this game with 2.5 takeaways per game on the season, an absurd number to have this late in the year – tops in the NFL. Yet, the bad news for Pittsburgh in that regard is that the last two teams on SNF that had the better takeaway per game numbers – Seattle and New England – each got blown out. Both did play on the road though, something Pittsburgh doesn't have to deal with this week.

I bring up takeaway and turnover numbers because in a game with such a low total, it will likely be those that end up deciding the total result. Should they happen when an offense is driving the ball, 'under' bettors will rejoice, but should they happen early on in drives, those same 'under' bettors will be cursing at their televisions and falling back on the saying “you can't handicap turnovers.” For the most part that's true, but it becomes all too frequent of an excuse for a losing play in the industry these days.

The total move below 37 has to be respected though, although the “betting numbers” part of me is dealing with the internal struggle of not looking to go 'over' now that it is below such a key number.

Side Spiel

Getting back to the turnover talk, did you know that this is the first time in 10 weeks that the SNF game has had the team with the worse turnover margin heading into the contest playing on the road? Go back and look it up if you don't believe me, but we've had 9 straight weeks of the home side being the one with the lower turnover margin (at the time) on SNF, and said teams have gone 6-3 SU and ATS while at home in those contests. And all three of those SU and ATS defeats came when the home team was statistically the more undisciplined at the time in both penalties taken per game and penalty yards per game (LAC in Week 6, KC in Week 8, and Dallas in Week 10).

Now even though that doesn't specifically apply to this week's game, it does speak to how difficult a handicap this game appears to be. Pittsburgh comes in with the better turnover margin, but takes fewer penalties per game (7.3 vs 7.5) and yet deals with more penalty yards against per game (60.3 vs 59.6). All minute differences when you really look at it, but it is just another example of how tight of a number this is. Considering SNF has been a haven for backing the home side the past nine weeks, it's going to be the Pittsburgh side that likely sees plenty of love come kickoff, but having the action split across the middle is very likely as well.

Final Thoughts

With how sharp the numbers on both the side and total appear to be, and the total being as low as it is, the best way to bet this game may actually be through a teaser. Spreads that are +/- 3 are always great teaser options because you can manipulate the spread through larger key numbers (+3,+7 etc) and in a game that's projected to be close, those points are much more valuable then say teasing a much bigger underdog initially even higher. Add in that low total games are also great teaser candidates given that each point is theoretically more valuable given they will likely be harder to come by, this game really does fit the bill of Teaser 101 handicapping.

And while I'm never a fan of teasing through zero, in a case like this I'm not sure it will hurt you as much as other situations. That's not to say teasing Pittsburgh down is the better option – I personally believe getting Buffalo is at +7.5 or +8 – it's not the worst option either.

The same thing goes with the total as teasing it up and back to the low 40's is the better way to go, but going the other way and having an 'over' 30 leg in your teaser isn't horrible either.

So, this is a game I have very little interest in flat betting either way, using a 6-point teaser on Buffalo up to +7.5 and the total up to 42 does make this game worth having some action on. It's going to feel like a playoff game for both sides, and all things considered, something like a 17-14 or 20-17 game is in the range of the most likely outcomes. Why bother with the actual spread/total if that does end up being the case.

Best Bet: 6-point Teaser – Buffalo +7.5 – Under 42

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 15
Tony Mejia

Broncos at Chiefs (-9.5/45), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: After a huge win in New England, Kansas City looks to match its longest winning streak of the season by holding serve against a Denver team that has covered in five of six and comes off back-to-back upsets over the Chargers and Texans. The Broncos have beaten exclusively AFC teams this season and have ridden rookie Drew Lock to a resurgent finish. Rookies are 1-6 at Arrowhead since 1950 and Patrick Mahomes has only lost one of his 11 starts against divisional foes in his career, so trends aren’t in the visitors’ favor here.

The Chiefs come in ranked in sixth in total offense while the Vic Fangio-led Broncos have the 10th-rated defense. Kansas City won 30-6 at Mile High on Oct. 17 and may ride its ground game more here since Mahomes has been nursing a bruised passing hand after being struck last week. DE Frank Clark will play for Kansas City after nursing a stomach ailment, while TE Noah Fant will suit up for Denver after getting his foot stepped on last week. Snow is almost certain to play a role in this one, which may help the Broncos’ secondary deal with Tyreek Hill. Hill’s duel with CB Chris Harris will likely be this contest’s most compelling individual matchup.

Bears at Packers (-4.5/40), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Green Bay has won six of seven in this series against an NFC North rival, which includes its 10-3 win on the opening Thursday night of the season. Aaron Rodgers was still getting acquainted with first-year head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense and has a 23 TD/2 INT ratio entering this Week 15 clash, one of the best in league history. The Packers are closing in on a playoff berth in their final home game of the regular season and have only dropped one game at Lambeau this season. Green Bay is 4-3 ATS at home after failing to properly put away the Redskins last week as it the Aaron Jones-led run game and the its defense past rookie QB Dwayne Haskins’ Redskins.

The Pack will probably have to work harder and risk more against a Bears’ defense that remains among the NFL’s most respected. With games against the Chiefs and Vikings ahead, Chicago must be at its best to try and overcome its four-game losing streak and reach the playoffs despite its 3-5 start. Mitchell Trubisky has thrown six touchdown passes and compiled a 116.9 passer rating in wins over the Lions and Cowboys, so Green Bay will be dealing with a hot quarterback in addition to a defense that gets back standout defensive tackle Akiem Hicks from IR after dislocating his elbow. LB Danny Trevathan remains out. Temperatures were as low as 8 degrees on Sunday morning and won’t get into the 20s. Rodgers typically thrives in these kinds of games and could have a big day if his coverage holds up.

Seahawks (-6/49) at Panthers, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Russell Wilson leads the league’s fifth-ranked offense, which comes in third in rushing thanks to Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny and will look to keep Seattle’s hopes of finishing with the NFC’s top record alive by winning their road finale. The Cardinals and 49ers come through Century Link Field over the next two weeks, so a 13-3 finish is certainly feasible. Penny is out after tearing his ACL last week, so CJ Prosise is likely to play a large role.

Although Christian McCaffrey sat down the stretch in last week’s blowout loss, the Panthers are likely going to lean on him just as heavily as they have all season, allowing him to extend his streak of consecutive games with 100-plus yards from scrimmage to eight so long as he stays healthy. Wilson also has a chance to have a big game and is facing a defense that has surrendered an average of 33 points per game over their last four losses. Three of the past four QBs to take on the Panthers have thrown for over 300 yards. With Jadeveon Clowney and Mychal Kendricks out and Ziggy Ansah and Shaquill Griffin questionable. Rookie third-round pick Cody Barton will get his second start at middle linebacker. A pretty day is expected in Charlotte, where temperatures will be just shy of 60 degrees.

Texans at Titans (-3/51), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Derrick Henry is set to play despite nursing a hamstring injury and has been tremendous over the past few weeks, reaching 12 touchdowns for the season for a second straight year. The ground attack has been able to help QB Ryan Tannehill get the passing game going despite the loss of tight end Delanie Walker, and Tennessee enters this game having averaged 37.5 points per game over its last four. The Texans surrendered 38 points last week, although Denver’s defense aided the cause with a couple of touchdowns, but they also gave up 41 points last time they hit the road and have given up 30 or more points in three of their last six away from Houston.

Tennessee has the second-best record in the NFL over the past seven weeks as Tannehill has amassed a 118.5 passer rating. Safety Kenny Vaccaro has been dealing with a concussion but is expected to clear protocol in time to prepare. Corner Adoree Jackson hasn’t practiced due to a foot injury and DT Jurrell Casey has been limited, so the Titans may need to keep their foot on the gas to hold off Deshaun Watson and the Texans. WR Will Fuller V is looking to return from a hamstring issue after missing last week’s game and completely changes the Houston offense, making it far more dynamic. These teams will play twice over the final three weeks. The Texans have won seven of 10 in the series.

Jaguars at Raiders (-6.5/46.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: Jacksonville has lost five consecutive games by 17 or more points, which means their issues are far greater than simply QB play or vulnerability due to the loss of talented defenders. Head coach Doug Marrone will likely pay with his job and the belief around Jacksonville is that owner Shad Khan is likely to clean house. Last week’s 45-10 loss the Chargers featured a performance where the Jags didn’t look ready to play, becoming the first teams since the 1986 Bucs (yuck!) to lose by at least 17 points in five straight. Another flat outing here could certainly yield another blowout since the Raiders are likely to be charged up as they take the field for the final time at Oakland Coliseum. This is truly it this time, so even though the Raiders have had a number of “final” games in Alameda County, Jon Gruden and his team know they’re truly closing a chapter here and want to close it in style.

Leonard Fournette struggled last week despite getting touches while rookie Gardner Minshew fell to 4-5 as the starter last week as the Chargers boat-raced him and the Jags’ offense. Oakland will look to snap its three-game losing streak and has also seen the bottom fall out of late, dropping its last three games by a combined margin of 83 points. Rookie RB Josh Jacobs is expected to be back in the lineup after being cleared to play after breaking a shoulder plate. Tackle Trent Brown is a game-time decision due to a pectoral issue. Jacobs and DeWayne Washington will try and victimize a Jaguars’ defense allowing 141.1 rushing yards per game, second-worst in the NFL. Guard Gabe Jackson (knee) and safety Erik Harris (hamstring) have been limited in practices.

Vikings (-1.5/45) at Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: Minnesota is closing out its road schedule and hoping to finish at .500 by taking advantage of the lack of homefield edge the Chargers are stuck dealing with for yet another disappointing season in Carson. L.A. has dropped four of its last five home games outright and are just 1-4-1 ATS in the building but have looked sharper on defense since getting back safety Derwin James. Windy conditions are expected, so this could be a game where the ground attacks dictate a winner. Dalvin Cook has scored in an NFL-high 11 games this season while both Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler have done a great job making the most of their opportunities of late. Both teams are averaging roughly 375 yards of offense and have given up just over 19 points per game. The Vikings have even allowed over 33 more yards per game but have obviously made better use of their chances and have pulled out games where the Chargers have failed.

Cook has been dealing with a shoulder issue but is expected to play while WR Adam Thielen is also expected to return from a four-game absence due to a hamstring injury, which will keep L.A. from keying on Stefon Diggs, who is closing in on another 1,000-yard season, ranking second in the NFL in yards per reception (17.8).

Rams (-1/48.5) at Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Dallas ranks second in the league in total offense and first in pass offense but hasn’t seen that edge materialize in many wins, putting them in a tough position with the Rams in town and the long-awaited matchup with the Eagles on deck next week. With Dak Prescott set to drop back, L.A.’s Aaron Donald-led defense will again be in the spotlight. AP reported that the Rams have an NFL-best 296 points off defensive takeaways since head coach Sean McVay and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips took over in 2017. They’ve recorded 11 sacks over the past two weeks and are up to 43 on the season, surpassing last year’s total. If the Rams can rattle Prescott and make the Cowboys one-dimensional, they could certainly control this game. Of course, Dallas’ offensive line is among the league’s best when healthy, so the battle up front figures to be telling.

Dallas is 0-6 against teams with winning records this season and will be looking to avoid sliding to 6-8 with their fourth straight setback. The Bears, Bills and Lions, offenses that don’t typically make scoreboard operators sweat, each got off against the Cowboys during this rough patch. Dallas has never made playoffs with multiple losing streaks of at least three games but have a 4,000-yard passer (Prescott), a 1,000-yard rusher (Ezekiel Elliott) and a 1,000-yard receiver (Amari Cooper) in same season for first time in franchise history, which is a stat worthy of a double-take given the history with this franchise. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four home games, both straight up and against the spread. LB Sean Lee is unlikely to play and Leighton Vander Esch has been ruled out, so Dallas will have to pull off a win despite a compromised linebacking corps.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 15
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 15 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 8-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-8
Against the Spread 6-8-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 10-5

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 123-77-1
Against the Spread 97-115-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 118-100-1
Against the Spread 92-120-7

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 109-109-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Falcons (+10, ML +425) at 49ers, 29-22
Jaguars (+7, ML +250) at Raiders, 20-16
Cardinals (+3, ML +140) at Browns, 38-24
Texans (+3, ML +140) at Titans, 24-21

The largest favorite to cover
Ravens (-17) vs. Jets, 42-21
Patriots (-10.5) at Bengals, 34-13
Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Broncos, 23-3
Eagles (-6.5) at Redskins, 37-27
Buccaneeers (-6) at Lions, 38-17

Bad Beat - Part 1

-- The Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) took on the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field, and the game started off harmlessly enough. The Redskins were leading 14-10 at halftime on their home field, looking to spoil the NFC East Division title and playoff dreams of their rivals. The Eagles struck for a touchdown in the third to re-take the lead 17-14. That's when the craziness started.

RB Adrian Peterson scored just seven seconds into the fourth to make it 21-17, and the teams traded touchdowns with TE Zach Ertz going to six to re-take the lead. The Redskins booted a pair of field goals to take a 27-24 lead, and that's how it looked like it might end. At the very least, the Redskins were going to hang on for the home cover. WR Greg Ward Jr. scored with :26 left to make it 31-27, and the Eagles were on their way to a win. However, the scoring wasn't over, as any Redskins side bettor already knows all too well. QB Dwayne Haskins fumbled, and with zeroes left on the clock it was LB Nigel Bradham returning the fumble for 47 yards to make it 37-27.

Bad Beat - Part 2

-- If you had the 'under' (50) in Atlanta Falcons-San Francisco 49ers, my condolences. At 5:15 to go in regulation there were just 36 total points on the board when the Falcons scored a rushing touchdown to cut the lead to 19-17. The 49ers booted a field goal at 1:48 to make it 22-17 in favor of the Niners.

With :02 left, the Falcons scored a touchdown, as QB Matt Ryan hit WR Julio Jones on a 5-yard connection to make it 23-22. Under bettors loved that they didn't even risk a two-point conversion or extra point, should the 49ers block a kick or return a fumble or interception for two points. So game over, right? Well, the 49ers tried a crazy series of lateral that went backwards, and you knew how this one was going. The 49ers chunked it, the Falcons scooped it up at the goal line and cashed in the six to push it over with zeroes on the clock. Two absolutely atrocious beats on the day. If you had the Redskins and the under in this game toge

Total Recall

-- There were five games with a total of 48.5 or greater -- Los Angeles Rams-Dallas Cowboys (48.5), Seattle Seahawks-Carolina Panthers (49), Cleveland Browns-Arizona Cardinals (49), Falcons-49ers (49.5 - see above) and the Houston Texans-Tennessee Titans (50.5). All but the Texans-Titans game ended up going over, and the AFC South battle probably would have gone over, too, if not for a scoreless first quarter. It was close.

The 'over' connected in the final Thursday game of the 2019 season between the New York Jets-Baltimore Ravens (44), with the over/under going 7-7 in the TNF game for the season. The Sunday nighter between the Buffalo Bills-Pittsburgh Steelers (37) was the lowest total on the board, and still wasn't even close to going over. We have the Monday nighter between the Indianapolis Colts-New Orleans Saints (46.5) still pending. The 'over' is just 17-28 (37.8%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Looking Ahead - Division Matchups

-- The Bills and Patriots battle at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Buffalo is 7-0-1 ATS in the past eight games on the road, and 5-0-1 ATS in the past six as a road underdog. The Patriots are 42-19-3 ATS in their past 63 at Gillette, and 4-0 ATS in the past four appearance on a Saturday. In this series the road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the past 29 meetings, with the Bills 3-1-1 ATS in the past five trips to Foxboro.

-- The Rams and 49ers tangle, and San Francisco looks to recover after their shocking loss to Atlanta dropped them from a first-round bye in the playoffs into a wild-card position and a potential road game to kick off the playoffs. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in the past six games inside the division, and they're 7-2 ATS in the past nine on the road. They were trampled in Dallas in Week 15, however. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams, but just 7-18-1 ATS in the past 26 as a favorite and 2-7-1 ATS in the past 10 inside the division. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings with the Rams, however, and the under is 5-1 in the past six meetings in the Bay Area.

-- The Giants and Redskins tangle in D.C. in a game with nothing on the line outside of pride. The bets cash the same, however. New York is 11-3 ATS in the past 14 on the road, while going 10-2 ATS in the past 12 as a road underdog. The Redskins are 2-7 ATS in the past nine at home, although they should have covered in Week 15 (see above). Ugh. The G-Men are 9-4 ATS in the past 13 meetings, while the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series. The under is also 5-1 in the past six in this series, and 5-2 in the past seven at FedEx Field.

-- The Ravens can clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC with a win over the Browns, who stunningly beat them back on Sept. 29 in Baltimore by a 40-25 score as the 'over' hit. The Ravens are 7-1 ATS in the past eight games overall, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four on the road. The Browns are still barely alive for a playoff spot, but need to win out with help. The Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four at home, but just 2-8-1 ATS in the past 11 at FirstEnergy Stadium vs. Ravens.

-- The Raiders and Chargers meet in Carson. Soon this will be Las Vegas vs. Los Angeles, which is still weird. The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, with the road team 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meeting. The under is 5-1 in the past six in this series.

-- The Cowboys are 16-5 ATS in the past 21 inside the NFC East, while the Eagles are 4-10 ATS in the past 14 at home while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven at home vs. Cowboys. The Eagles are also 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings overall. With the road team also 11-5 ATS in the past 16 meetings, all trends point to Dallas.

-- The Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven on the road, but just 1-4-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams. The Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six overall, but they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven at home. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in the past four trips to Seattle, and 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings overall. The road team is 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings overall in the series.

-- The Packers and Vikings meet on Monday night. The Packers are 2-6 ATS in the past eight battles on MNF, while the Vikings are 2-11 ATS in the past 13 on Monday, so something's gotta give. In this series the Packers are 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to the Twin Cities, while the home team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 5-0 in the past five in Minnesota, while going 8-2 in the past 10 meetings overall, including a 21-16 win by the Packers in Week 2 at Lambeau.

[Udog]

NFL Week 16 opening odds and early action: Cowboys a road favorite for key clash vs Eagles
Patrick Everson

Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas are tied atop the NFC East with Philadelphia, heading into a critical Week 16 contest. The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point road favorites against the division-rival Eagles.

The NFL playoff race shifts into high gear with key divisional battles in Week 16. We check in on opening odds and early action for four Week 16 games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5)

Someone’s gotta win the NFC East, and this is the game that will likely decide who that someone is. Dallas put a three-game SU slide in the rearview mirror while climbing back to .500 in Week 15. The Cowboys (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) battered the Los Angeles Rams 44-21 as 1-point home underdogs.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia had to scrap and scrounge at three-win Washington, but also found its way back to .500. The Eagles (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) got a touchdown with 26 seconds remaining to take a 31-27 lead, then got a scoop-and-score on the final play of the game. That play killed ‘Skins bettors as Philly won 37-27 giving 10 points. It was the only moment all game that the Eagles were covering.

“Everyone will be on Dallas after its performance in the win over the Rams,” Murray said. “The Eagles escaped two weeks in a row against the awful Giants and Redskins. They will need to really up their game to beat Dallas here.”


Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7)

In the offseason, not many would have pegged Buffalo as having a chance to tie for the AFC East lead in Week 16, but that’s most certainly the case. The Bills (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) bested Pittsburgh 17-10 as 1-point road underdogs in the Sunday nighter and now have the best spread-covering mark in the league.

Defending Super Bowl champ New England halted a two-game SU and three-game ATS skid. The Patriots (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) played a lackluster first half at Cincinnati, taking a 13-10 lead just before the break, but went on to a 34-13 victory laying 10.5 points.

“Both teams are now in the playoffs but have playoff positioning to fight for,” Murray said of motiviations for this Saturday showdown. “The Patriots’ offense couldn’t do anything in their first meeting, and it doesn’t seem like much has changed for them on that side of the ball. We will be flooded with teasers and parlays of Patriots to 49ers.”

Per SuperBook policy, this game came off the board before the Bills-Steelers kickoff and will repost Monday morning.


Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

San Francisco learned how quickly fates can change at this stage of the year, dropping from the NFC’s No. 1 seed to No. 5 on Sunday. The 49ers (11-3 SU, 8-5-1 ATS), coming off a great win at New Orleans, suffered a stunning home loss to Atlanta, 29-22 as healthy 10.5-point favorites.

In a crazy finish, the Niners allowed a TD with two seconds left to fall behind 23-22, then gave up a scoop-and-score while lateraling around on the ensuing kickoff to account for the final score. Which, oh by the way, made Over bettors delirious and Under bettors sick, with a total of 50.

Defending NFC champ Los Angeles did itself more harm than San Fran in Week 15, further wrenching its playoff hopes. The Rams went to Dallas as 1-point favorites and got boatraced 44-21, halting a 3-1 SU and ATS upswing. Sean McVay’s squad is still No. 7 in the NFC, but is two games out in the win column to current wild cards Minnesota and San Francisco.

“San Francisco is really banged up right now and just fell out of first place with a loss to the Falcons,” Murray said. “They need this game to stay in the hunt for a first-round bye. The book will want the Rams outright.”

This is another Saturday matchup, in prime time with an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff.


Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

Green Bay will look to remain solo first in the NFC North in the final Monday night game of the season. In Week 15, the Packers (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS) beat Chicago 21-13 giving 4 points at frigid Lambeau Field, where the current No. 2 seed hopes to spend some time in January.

However, Minnesota can tie its division rival with a victory in this prime-time contest. The Vikings (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) went off as 1-point road favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers and coasted to a 39-10 victory Sunday.

“The Packers really struggled on offense in their win over the Bears. They’ll need to be much better to beat Minnesota here,” Murray said. “The winner will likely take the division, and the loser will have to go on the road for three rounds in the postseason to get to the Super Bowl.”

[Udog]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 16 odds: Time to tackle the total for Raiders at Chargers
Jason Logan

This total of 47 points is the lowest Over/Under set for a game between Oakland at L.A./San Diego since 2015 and in their eight meetings during that stretch, these divisional foes have produced a 2-6 Over/Under mark.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.

Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 16 board.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: DALLAS COWBOYS (-2.5) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

All the marbles in the NFC East are on the line when the Cowboys come to Philly to face the Eagles in Week 16. After Dallas destroyed the L.A. Rams at home Sunday and Philadelphia fumbled its way to a win over Washington, the public perceptions for these two rivals are heading in opposite directions.

The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point favorites on the road and early money is jumping on the visitor, with some books making a brief move to -3 and other juggling the juice on Eagles +2.5 trying to stir up action on the home side.

If you like Dallas to build on that Week 15 win and take the NFC East title, get it under the key number of a field goal now. Books are expecting to need Philadelphia come kickoff Sunday and this spread could not only climb to -3 but maybe even -3.5 if the public pounds America’s Team.


SPREAD TO BET LATER: LOS ANGELES RAMS (+6.5) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Both NFC West rivals are coming off bad losses in Week 15, but the Rams’ 44-21 flogging in Dallas looks a little worse than the Niners dropping the ball versus Atlanta. And that’s why this 6.5-point spread will tick toward the home side for Saturday night’s game.

With the 49ers fighting for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and looking to avoid a Wild Card spot, bettors will bank on a bounce back with the team staying in the Bay Area. San Francisco was banged up heading into that matchup with the Falcons and should it return some key bodies, this spread could climb to a touchdown or higher.

Some books opened 49ers -6 and jumped to -6.5, and now we’re seeing that line taxed a little more on the home side as books attempt to cook up action on the Rams. If you like Los Angeles to put in a good fight and try to play spoiler to San Francisco’s postseason plans, then hold off and wait to see how many points this spread will climb.


TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 47 OAKLAND RAIDERS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

It was a bad week for California-based NFL teams. Both the Raiders and Chargers lost – as did the Rams and Niners – but at least one will get a “W” in Week 15 (unless we get a tie. Yuck). However, we’re more concerned with the total for this AFC West rivalry.

Oakland botched its farewell game in the Bay Area by scoring only 16 points in a loss to Jacksonville and has averaged just 13.2 points over its last five games, posting a 1-4 Over/Under count in that span. Los Angeles mustered a mere 10 points in a blowout loss to Minnesota, a week removed from hanging 45 points on the Jaguars. Take that high-scoring aberration out of the mix and the Bolts have scored 20 or less in three of their last four.

This total of 47 points is the lowest Over/Under set for a game between Oakland at L.A./San Diego since 2015 and in their eight meetings during that stretch, these divisional foes have produced a 2-6 Over/Under mark. Bookies are already discounting the vig on the Over 47, so a move downward is coming. Take the Under 47 now while you can.


TOTAL TO BET LATER: UNDER 50.5 ARIZONA CARDINALS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Seahawks are vying for the top seed in the NFC after a win at Carolina and a 49ers loss to Atlanta in Week 15. Seattle is far from those dominant defensive clubs that stormed the NFL playoffs a few years back, scoring 26.3 points for but allowing 27.3 points against over its last three contests.

The Cardinals come in with the hot hand, putting 38 points on Cleveland at home in Week 15. Arizona has scored 25 or more points in four of its last six games and is a much different team than the one that lost 27-10 to Seattle at home back in Week 4.

The current 50.5-point total is the third-highest Over/Under number on the Week 16 board, after opening as low as 49.5. It has climbed as high as 51 at some sportsbooks and if you think that total is too tall, wait it out and see how high you can get the number before getting down on the Under.

[Udog]

MNF - Colts at Saints
Tony Mejia

Indianapolis at New Orleans (-9, 47), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

The Colts will be eliminated with a loss and have no room for error, so if you’re into backing blind desperation, the guys in blue are for you. Of course, you could be stuck riding a horse that’s done bucking and now looks is looking for a nice stable to sleep in as they ride into that sunset.

I’ll spare you any further analogies of what retired horses do, but these Colts are certainly nearly out of gas and you can read on to the injury report below to see just how compromised they are and have been on that side of the ball. The Saints have wrapped up their NFC South title but are still vying to avoid playing on Wild Card weekend, so they’ll be heavily invested in making sure they come out of this one victorious.

After losing to the 49ers on a last-second Robbie Gould field goal last week, New Orleans dropped out of the driver’s seat as far as controlling its own destiny goes but can still finish at 13-3 by running the table with wins at Tennessee and Carolina to close out its schedule following this home regular-season finale.

Even with the 49ers being upset late in Sunday’s home date with a Falcons team that also hung an unexpected loss on the Saints in New Orleans, the winner of the San Francisco-Seattle Week 17 showdown will likely finish with a 13-3 record. If it’s the Seahawks, the Saints will hold tiebreaker over them by virtue of a head-to-head win. If it’s the 49ers, they won’t.

The Packers are also in the mix for a 13-3 finish and close out with a Monday night visit to Minnesota next week and close with a stop in Detroit, so they’ll also factor into the homefield mix as the NFC playoff picture is certain not to shake out until Week 17’s games are played. The Saints are a perfect 3-0 coming off losses, winning each time by eight or more points to post a 3-0 ATS record after setbacks.

Indianapolis comes in off a 38-35 loss to the Buccaneers in which it fell at home despite Jameis Winston’s turnover issues, ultimately being unable to stop a passing attack that also generated multiple big plays despite losing top receiver Mike Evans to a hamstring injury as he finished off a long touchdown run after a deep ball from Winston. While Indianapolis has been solid against the run, ranking eighth in yards allowed, they’re 22nd of 32 in pass defense and have dealt with personnel issues due to injuries for the better part of the season.

That’s not a great matchup when you have to deal with Drew Brees and the player who has been the league’s most productive receiver this season since Michael Thomas, whose 121 catches for 1,424 yards top the NFL, has proven he can’t be stopped whether his quarterback is Brees or backups Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill. Thomas has a streak of hauling in at least 10 receptions for over 100 yards at home going and has seven games with at least 10 catches, tied for most in league annals.

History can also be made tonight if Brees is able to throw three touchdown passes since he’s moved just behind Peyton Manning (539) for most in NFL history and would get to 540 if he can throw three. If the opportunity is there, count on Sean Payton to make sure he gets this record at home in what will be the team’s final regular-season date so that he can be properly honored. While Tom Brady is in the mix with 538 TD passes, Brees is likely to keep the Patriots' quarterback in his rear-view mirror based on what we've seen this season and his stated desire to continue playing a few more seasons.

I’d back a 3-plus touchdown prop if you can find it. Since returning from the thumb injury that caused him to miss over a month of action, Brees has thrown for three or more scores in four of six games, tossing five in the loss to the 49ers.

Although Thomas continues to be the top target, the fact Ted Ginn, Tre’Quan Smith and tight end Jared Cook have all gotten healthier and have also made big plays in the passing game has made the Saints awfully effective.

Count on the Colts looking to slow the game down and try and control time of possession since that’s likely the best way to get out of the Superdome with an upset. RB Marlon Mack is up to 900 yards rushing for the season and has been steady behind Indy’s above-average offensive line, while backup Nyheim Hines has been extremely productive catching passes out of the backfield to help offset the team’s injury-related issues at wide receiver. The Colts have the sixth-ranked rushing attack in the NFL but have struggled to keep up the pace through the air, particularly recently.

Without T.Y. Hilton, Jacoby Brissett has struggled some after a fantastic start despite being thrust into the starter’s role by the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck. The Colts fell apart without him in losing to the Dolphins under Brian Hoyer’s job but have seen him struggle since his return from a sprained left MCL. Brissett has thrown for four touchdowns and three interceptions but could catch a break with Hilton being listed as a game-time decision.

There’s no question Hilton will want to be out there with his team making their first Monday Night Football appearance since 2016 but he didn’t practice Saturday, so his status is up in the air. According to Stephen Holder, beat writer for The Athletic, head coach Frank Reich doesn’t want his star wideout playing unless he’s 100 percent but Hilton has balked at the idea of shutting it down despite Indianapolis’ bleak playoff chances.

TOTAL TALK

The total for the Week 15 finale opened at 45 and the number has been bumped up to 46 ½ and 47 at the majority of sportsbooks as of Monday morning. The totals market has had nice back and forth results this season in non-conference games and the ‘over’ holds a slight 28-27 edge but the high side did go 3-0 on Sunday in NFC-AFC matchups.

Chris David handicaps the total for the second to last MNF matchup of the season.

“Anytime there’s a game in the Superdome, you’re automatically thinking shootout but it depends on what the opponent is bringing the table,” said David. “Ironically, the Colts have produced 8-5 ‘over’ results this season while the Saints own a 7-6 mark to the side. Even if Brees and the Saints offense are known to put a dud at home every now and then in the regular season, the attack can ring up 30-plus points routinely.”

The NFC South matched up against the AFC South this season for non-conference games and the Saints have gone 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS while the total went 1-1. The Colts own a 1-1 record (1-0-1 ATS) versus their NFC counterparts but the ‘over’ holds a 2-0 mark with Indy averaging 31 PPG in those affairs. Both clubs finish out their non-conference slates in Week 16 with the Colts hosting Carolina and the Saints visiting Tennessee.

David likes what he sees from Indianapolis in these NFC matchups and he likes the trends against the AFC for the Saints as well.

“Brees has had plenty of recent success against AFC foes, especially at home. The club has won four straight and that includes the Week 1 rally past the Texans,” David said. “More importantly, the offense is averaging 28.3 PPG in their last 10 at home in non-conference games and that’s resulted in an 8-2 ‘over’ mark. The Colts are on a 3-0 ‘over’ run in games against NFC teams and I expect that trend to continue here. I believe both teams will get into the twenties on MNF and the winner will see a minimum of 30 points.”

LINE MOVEMENT

Indianapolis Colts
Projected season win total: 7.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC South (pre-Week 1/current): 7/2 to 80/1
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 40/1 to 250/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 80/1 to 500/1

New Orleans Saints
Projected season win total: 10.5 (Over +120, Under -140)
Odds to win NFC South (pre-Week 1/current): 5/7 to OFF (Cashed)
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 5/1 to 2/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 12/1 to 5/1

INJURY CONCERNS

This game will be vital for the Saints in that it will supply the first real opportunity to see how the defensive is going to respond without DT Sheldon Rankins (ankle) and DE Marcus Davenport (foot), who were lost to season-ending injuries last week. Kiko Alonso will be sidelined too and was badly missed in the middle last week, while CBs Patrick Robinson, Johnson Bademosi and safety Vonn Bell are going to miss this game too. Sack master Cameron Jordan will play, as will LB A.J. Klein. Up front, while tackle Terron Armstead will play, counterpart Andrus Peat is sidelined again.

Beyond Hilton’s availability, the Colts have CB Rock Ya-Sin banged up but expect to have him out there and hope fellow corner Pierre Desir (groin) can participate. Fellow CB Kenny Moore has already been ruled out. WR Paris Campbell became the latest receiver to be lost for the season, joining Chester Rodgers and tight end Eric Ebron. Dontrelle Inman was re-signed due to his familiarity with the Colts system while young Marcus Johnson and Zach Pascal should do the heavy lifting if Hilton can’t go. Kicker Adam Vinatieri was placed on IR earlier this month. Rookie Chase McLaughlin is handling those duties.

RECENT MEETINGS

(Saints 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS last 9, UNDER 5-4)

10/25/15 Saints 27-21 at Colts (NO +4, 52)
10/23/11 Saints 62-7 at Colts (NO -14, 49)
9/6/07 Colts 41-10 vs. Saints (IND -5.5, 53.5)
9/28/03 Colts 55-21 at Saints (IND -1.5, 42)
11/18/01 Saints 34-20 vs. Colts (NO -5.5, 47.5)
9/27/98 Saints 19-13 OT at Colts (PK'em, 35.5)
11/12/95 Saints 17-14 vs. Colts (NO -1.5, 40)
12/24/89 Saints 41-6 vs. Colts (NO -2.5, 39.5)
10/12/86 Saints 17-14 at Colts (IND +4, 37.5)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 16 currently has the Saints as a 1.5-point road favorite at the Titans. Believe it or not, the Colts are a 6.5-point home favorite with the slumping Panthers coming into town.