NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (Thur., Dec. 5 - Mon., Dec. 9)

[Udog]

TNF - Cowboys at Bears
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

Both these teams played on Thanksgiving with mixed results. Starting with the Cowboys (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS), it was an embarrassing Turkey Day home loss to the upstart Bills in a 26-15 setback as 6 ½-point favorites. Dallas jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead on a Dak Prescott touchdown strike to tight end Jason Witten, but the Cowboys wouldn’t score again until four minutes remaining in regulation.

In between, the Bills ran off 26 consecutive points, as Dallas turned the ball over twice. Prescott ended the day with 355 yards passing, but it was the second time this season that the Dallas quarterback posted gaudy numbers in a home blowout loss (463 yards against Packers). Running back Ezekiel Elliott carried the ball only 12 times, tied for his fewest all season, but racked up 71 yards which came to an average of 5.9 yards an attempt.

The Bears (6-6 SU, 3-9 ATS) erased a 17-7 deficit at rival Detroit last Thursday to knock off the Lions, 24-20. Chicago closed as a 5 ½-point road favorite, marking its seventh ATS loss in the past eight games, but the Bears are back at .500 since owning a 3-3 record in Week 7. Bears’ quarterback Mitchell Trubisky put together his best game of the season by throwing for 338 yards and three touchdowns, including the go-ahead score to David Montgomery with 2:17 remaining in regulation.

In spite of Chicago’s modest two-game winning streak, the Bears remain three games behind the Packers for the top spot in the NFC North and two games back of the Vikings for the second NFC Wild Card position. The 24 points scored at Detroit marked the most posted by the Bears since putting up 25 in a home loss to New Orleans back in Week 7. The defense allowed at least 20 points for the first time in four games, ending a five-game streak to the ‘over.’

YOU DON’T SCORE UNTIL YOU SCORE

The Cowboys’ formula for winning this season has been very simple. When Dallas scores 31 points or more, it has a perfect 6-0 mark. On the flip side, Jason Garrett’s squad has compiled an ugly 0-6 record when being held to 30 points or less. The last two weeks have been especially forgettable offensively as Dallas combined for only 24 points against a pair of solid defenses in New England and Buffalo. The last time the Cowboys won a game when scoring fewer than 30 points was their Wild Card victory over the Seahawks this past January, 24-22.

PROTECT THIS HOUSE

The Bears have played six games at Soldier Field this season and have allowed more than 17 points only once, which came in a Week 7 defeat at New Orleans when they yielded 36 points. Chicago has given up 10, 6, 17, 13, and 14 in the other five home contests, while opponents have posted more than 20 points only once in the past 10 games at Soldier Field, which includes the 16-15 playoff loss to Philadelphia. The ‘under’ has cashed in eight of the last 10 home contests for Chicago, as the Bears have scored at least 21 points only once in six home games in 2019.

DOGGIN’ IT

For only the third time this season, the Bears are listed in the underdog role. The first two times didn’t work out well for Chicago by losing at Philadelphia, 22-14 in Week 9 and dropping a 17-7 decision to the Rams in Week 11. The last time the Bears closed as an underdog at Soldier Field came last December in a 15-6 win over Los Angeles when they received three points. ‘Dogs have posted a solid 9-4 ATS record on Thursday night action this season, while only two home underdogs have won and covered on Thursdays (Jaguars – Week 3 and Raiders – Week 10).

SERIES HISTORY

These NFC squads last met in 2016 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington as the Cowboys took care of the Bears, 31-17 as 6 ½-point favorites. Dallas is making its first trip to the Windy City since 2014 (also a Thursday night game) when the Cowboys held off a furious Bears’ rally in a 41-28 victory as four-point favorites. The Cowboys built a commanding 35-7 lead before Chicago scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make the final score look better.

TOTAL TALK

Oddsmakers sent out an opening total of 44 and the number is listed at 42 ½ as of Wednesday evening.

Chris David offered up his thoughts on this week’s number.

He said, “This game could be looked at as a bit of a head-scratcher based on the total results for both clubs. The Cowboys have watched the ‘over’ go 7-5 this season and that includes a 4-2 mark on the road. Meanwhile, the Bears have been a great ‘under’ bet at 8-4 and only one of six games played at Soldier Field went ‘over’ this season and that outcome was helped with a big second-half scoring surge when the Saints visited back in Week 7.”

“Chicago is the perfect mold of an ‘under’ team, solid defense and inconsistent offense and that trend has been golden for bettors riding the low side -- especially at home too. The ‘under’ is on an 8-1 run in the last nine home games for the Bears and only one team scored more than 17 points, which came in the aforementioned effort against New Orleans (36-25).”

While those seasonal trends and tendencies could have many bettors placing ‘under’ wagers on Thursday, David points out a total angle that’s correlated to Dallas.

He explained, “The drama always follows Dallas in the NFL and this season is no different. After last week’s loss on Thanksgiving to Buffalo, it’s hard to have any confidence in the Cowboys but if you believe they’re going to right the ship then you would a better offensive effort. Dallas sits at 6-5 on the season and it has averaged 34.3 in the six wins and the ‘over’ has gone 4-2 in those games. If you go back even further, the Cowboys have scored 20-plus points in 16 of their last 17 wins. Bottom line, the Cowboys win when they score. The Dallas team total is hovering between 22 and 23 for Thursday and since I believe the ‘Boys rebound, my lean would be to the Cowboys Team Total Over.”

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in to figure out what has gone wrong with the Cowboys, “Dallas has out-gained 11 of 12 foes this season with the only deficit just -9 at New Orleans. Turnovers can’t account for all the problems at just -4 in turnover margin on the season though the Dallas defense has forced zero turnovers in the past four games for a -5 run in that 1-3 stretch. Chicago is +3 in turnovers on the season, but an offense with a rushing identity has been out-gained on the ground in seven of the past eight games even with a run defense that has allowed 97 yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry this season.”

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Gross Passing Yards – Dak Prescott (DAL)
Over 276 ½ (-110)
Under 276 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Dak Prescott (DAL)
Over 1 ½ (-120)
Under 1 ½ (Even)

Will Dak Prescott (DAL) throw an interception?
Yes -130
No +110

Total Rushing Yards – Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
Over 81 ½ (-110)
Under 81 ½ (-110)

Will Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) score a touchdown?
Yes -130
No +110

Total Completions – Mitchell Trubisky (CHI)
Over 22 ½ (-110)
Under 22 ½ (-110)

Total Rushing Yards – David Montgomery (CHI)
Over 55 ½ (-110)
Under 55 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Anthony Miller (CHI)
Over 53 ½ (-110)
Under 53 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

This line has stayed steady this week with the Cowboys as three-point road favorites. The total hasn’t seen much movement as it sits at 43 ½ at most books.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


LORD OF THE VANCE

Los Angeles Rams TE Tyler Higbee hit the prop trifecta against the Arizona Cardinals and their league-worst tight end defense last week. Higbee hit the Over on both his receptions and yards while also hitting paydirt. If you have been playing TEs versus the Cardinals all year then you are probably doing your best Scrooge McDuck impersonation these days.

In the Cardinals' 12 games this year, TEs have hit the trifecta (receptions, yards and a TD) five times. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Tight ends have gone Over their reception totals in 10 games, Over in their receiving yards in nine games and have scored a touchdown in nine of 12 games. That smells like winning to me.

Pittsburgh TE Vance McDonald is next in line for the ride as the Steelers travel to Arizona. McDonald’s totals sit at 3.5 receptions and 33.5 yards. You know what to do, and don’t forget the TD for good measure.


TURDISKY TIME ON THURSDAY

TNF will bring us the Dallas Cowboys and the Chicago Bears. The Bears are winners of three of their last four thanks in part to playing QBs David Blough, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff and Jeff Driskel over that stretch.

Mitchell Trubisky and the offense have looked decent lately but are scoring just 16.7 points over their last three games — sixth-worst mark in the league. Home field isn’t much of an advantage either for Mitch and the boys as the Bears are 31st in points scored while converting just 25 percent of third downs at Soldier Field.

Dallas has a great defense on the road, giving up the fourth-fewest yards and allowing just 31 percent of third downs to be converted. Mitch is due for a turd as he hasn’t posted back-to-back QB ratings of over 100 this year. Hit the Under on the Bears’ team total of 19.5 (+100) or wait for it to go through the key number of 20 to 20.5.


SLICE AND DICE WITH GUICE

Since being drafted in the second round of the 2018 draft, Washington running back Derrius Guice has played just four games. Last week, the 22-year-old back topped 100 yards on just 10 carries against the worst DVOA rush defense. Expectations should be tempered as Guice faces a lot of competition for snaps as Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson saw 72 percent of the snaps while Guice saw 30.

This week the Redskins play against the Green Bay Packers who have a bottom-five rush defense sandwiched between 27th-ranked Cincinnati and 29th Miami. Not great company. Green Bay is also tied for the fourth-most rushing TDs allowed at home at 1.2 which might benefit Guice as the young back has received eight red-zone carries over the last three weeks while Peterson has seen just three.

Guice is a hot name this week so beware of his rushing total of 50.5 yards. The real worth could be on his anytime rushing TD which could fetch backers some good plus-money.


KING HENRY

Derrick Henry has started his assault on defenses a little earlier this year. In 2018, Henry averaged 146 yards rushing and 1.75 rushing TDs over the final four weeks while this year the ‘Bama back has 496 yards in his last three weeks. Henry has actually been quite consistent all year as the Titans’ RB has been held to under 70 yards rushing just twice since Week 4.

This week the Titans take on Oakland. The Raiders are coming off two weeks of football that saw them get outscored 74-12 and they might be waving the white flag at the worst possible time. Oakland hasn’t been giving up huge games to opposing backs, but it has allowed five rushing TDs in its last three and gave up 6.12 yards per carry over Weeks 10 and 11 combined.

With the Titans running the ball around 30 times a game, we could see another big game out of Tennessee's big back. We are doubling down on Henry and taking the Over 98.5 rushing yards and his anytime TD.


BUCS BAD BACKFIELD

Last week, we pushed Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones but he flopped. Jones missed a blitz pickup in the first quarter and was subsequently benched for a brief time. The starter watched teammate Peyton Barber take 17 carries for 44 yards and two scores in the Bucs’ 28-11 win over the Jaguars. We picked a bad week to play Jones’ TD prop.

This week, head coach Bruce Arians has said that Jones is still his starter for the Bucs game against the Colts, but we aren’t sure we believe him. Tampa only averages 3.7 yards per carry this year which is tied for seventh-worse while Jones is gaining just 3.56 yards per carry on his 11.6 touches per game.

Looking at this backfield's rushing totals, we see more value in Jones’ 44.5 than Barber’s 40.5 and will be taking the Under on the former as the Colts are allowing just 97 yards rushing in their last three games. Take Jones’ Under 44.5 rushing yards.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


THE X-MYLES

The Jacksonville Jaguars have sent starting linebacker Myles Jack to the injured reserved, ending his season. Jack leads the Jags in tackles and his absence is bad news for the Jaguars’ 31st-ranked DVOA rush defense but great news for the Los Angeles Chargers’ running backs.

Under new offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, Melvin Gordon is averaging 89 rushing yards and 21.5 receiving yards a game while the pint-sized Austin Ekeler is putting up 85 total yards himself. The Chargers’ offense hasn’t been putting up many points on the board this year but they have managed 370 yards of offense per game over their last three games — the seventh-most between Kansas City and San Francisco.

We are throwing down on Gordon’s Over 75.5 rushing yards but shying away on Ekeler’s receiving total of 53.5, which we feel is a little too high.


ARE YOU GOING TO THE SCARBROUGH FAIR?

Detroit Lions running back Bo Scarbrough has more rushing yards than Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott and Mark Ingram over the last two weeks as the 2018 7th-round pick has the second-most rushing attempts since Week 12. The Lions’ back also has 2.4 yards per carry after first contact which is the best mark in the leauge. The Lions are rushing the ball nearly 30 times a game as they try to take pressure off their inexperienced backup quarterback play.

Detroit will be in tough versus a Minnesota Vikings team that is giving up the seventh-fewest rushing yards at home. We don’t expect the Lions to totally abandon the run even if they fall behind early as they have nothing to play for. Therefore, we aren’t afraid to take Scarbrough’s rushing attempt total which sits at 18.5. We are playing the Over on that carry total but may shop around first and look for a lower total closer to Sunday.


RETURN OF THE MACK

The Indianapolis Colts got some great news this week as running back Marlon Mack returned to practice on Thursday. Mack had been sidelined with a hand injury for nearly three weeks. The Colts are one of the league’s best running teams, averaging 139 yards per game (4th) and are banged up in the receiving department (T.Y. Hilton, Eric Ebron and Chester Rogers). That might force them to lean on the run more ahead of Sunday's game against the Tampa Buccaneers and their No. 1 DVOA rush defense.

Tampa is giving up just 76 yards on the ground this year, 72 over its last three games and have held teams’ leading rusher to under 40 yards in three of their last four games. We don’t trust Mack’s rushing total (once his markets open when he is declared active), but we do like his anytime TD.

The Colts have scored six rushing TDs over their last three games and will need Mack to cross the pylons with a lack of receiving talent and their playoff hopes still alive. Take Mack's anytime TD.


DOUBLE TROUBLE

Matt Ryan and Kyle Allen are the most sacked quarterbacks over the last three weeks. Combined, Ryan and Allen have been taken down 34 times since Week 11. As luck would have it, the Carolina Panthers travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Sunday, making a play on the total sack prop quite mouthwatering.

Atlanta’s QB will face a hungry Panthers team under new direction while also getting to opposing QBs nearly four times a game. Things could turn ugly as the Falcons are giving up pressure Ryan on 31 percent of plays (23rd-worst).

Carolina’s rookie QB has looked horrendous at moments and has been sacked 39 times in his 10 games this year. Carolina’s O-line is allowing pressure at a 32-percent rate. Take the Over 5.5 sacks.

[Udog]

NFL Week 14 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather and Pros vs Joes
Patrick Everson

Atlanta wideout Julio Jones returns to the lineup for Sunday's home game against Carolina. Oddsmakers at The SuperBook peg Jones as worth a half-point to the line, and the Falcons are laying 3.5.

NFL Week 14 doesn’t have much in the way of major injury news, but there are certainly other elements – including the elements themselves – impacting the numbers. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

ATLANTA FALCONS: Julio Jones (shoulder) missed the Thanksgiving Day home loss to the Saints, but he’ll be back Sunday at home for a division battle against the Panthers. Also back is Falcons tight end Austin Hooper (knee), after a three-game absence. “Jones is worth a half-point, nothing for Hooper,” Osterman said. Atlanta is a 3.5-point favorite, after opening -2, and the total is 47.

CAROLINA PANTHERS: Tight end Greg Olsen (concussion) is out, but Osterman said there was no adjustment on that info for Carolina’s tilt at Atlanta. The Panthers are 3.5-point underdogs.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Here’s how far Adam Vinatieri’s stock has dropped: the place-kicker is out Sunday at Tampa Bay due to a knee injury, and Osterman said The SuperBook made no line adjustment on that information. T.Y. Hilton (calf) is also out for Indy. “He’s worth a half-point.” The Colts are 3.5-point underdogs.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Wideout JuJu-Smith Schuster (knee) and running back James Conner (shoulder) are again out, as the Steelers travel to Arizona. “Schuster and Conner are worth a half-point combined.” Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point pup.

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Running back Josh Jacobs (shoulder) is questionable for a home game against Tennessee. “Jacobs might be worth a half-point. The Raiders are so banged up that it’s hard to tell how much he affects this particular game.” Oakland is a 2.5-point home ‘dog.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Wideout Adam Thielen (hamstring) is doubtful, but seeing as he’s been out a month now, Osterman said that was already factored in. The Vikings are still 13-point home favorites over Detroit.

NEW YORK JETS: Running back Le’Veon Bell (illness) is questionable, but that didn’t change any thinking at The SuperBook for the Jets’ home game against Miami. New York is laying 5.5.


Weather Watch

WASHINGTON AT GREEN BAY: It’ll be cloudy and cool, with temperatures in the 30s throughout, along with winds in the mid-teens. “The total has come down a half-point due to the wind, not so much the temperature.” The total is at 42.5.

BALTIMORE AT BUFFALO: It’ll be cloudy, with winds approaching 20 mph at New Era Field. “This game has come down a half-point due to forecasted wind.” The total is 44.

CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND: Winds of 20 mph are expected for this AFC North contest. “The total has come down 1.5 points, some of that due to wind, and some due to the possibility of Baker Mayfield being limited with his injury.” Mayfield has a hand injury, but he wasn’t listed on the Browns’ injury report. The total is 41.5.

KANSAS CITY AT NEW ENGLAND: It’s a 4:25 p.m. ET kick, and evening temperatures will be in the low 30s, but Osterman said that’s had no impact on the game. The total is 49.5.


Pros vs. Joes

BALTIMORE AT BUFFALO: “Pros were on the Bills early, and since then, we’ve had a steady flow of Ravens parlay bets.” Baltimore is laying 6 points.

KANSAS CITY AT NEW ENGLAND: “Joes have been backing the Chiefs, and we’ve had some sharp money on the Patriots.” The Patriots opened -3, briefly went to -2.5 early in the week and reached -3.5 Friday morning.

PITTSBURGH AT ARIZONA: “Pros have backed the Cardinals a little bit, but we’re getting mostly Steelers money on parlays and straight bets.” Pittsburgh is -2.5.
Reverse Line Moves

WASHINGTON AT GREEN BAY: “The line opened Packers -14, and we we’re down to -12.5. The money, however, is coming in on the Packers from the public.” That led to an uptick to -13 Friday afternoon.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


GOLDEN PASCAL

Yesterday, we wrote about the lack of receiving options the Indianapolis Colts have ahead of their tasty matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ No. 19 DVOA pass defense. With T.Y. officially out, that leaves Zach Pascal and Paris Campbell as the No. 1 and No. 2 WRs for Jacoby Brissett.

The Bucs have the league’s best run defense which will force the Colts to move the ball through the air, whether they prefer to or not. Luckily for Indy, Tampa Bay also has one of the worst secondaries in the league. Bruce Arians’ defense is giving up 83.7 yards a game to opposing WR1s and 72.4 yards to WR2s. That makes Pascal, the team’s leading receiving, a strong play for Sunday especially coming off a seven-catch 109-yard performance last week.

We are riding the Over on Pascal’s receiving total of 46.5 yards.


MY BETTER HALF

The Cleveland Browns are still trying to make something of the season as they are winners of three of their last four but still sit in third place in the AFC North at 5-7. One thing they have been better at than 29 other teams of late, is to score in the first half. Over the last three weeks, Cleveland has been putting up 17.3 points as well as allowing just 4.3 in the first half since Week 11 and they'll hope to keep that going this week against the rival Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals have been getting beat up all year but even more so in the first half. In the seven games versus Top-20 offenses, Cincy has been outscored 124-60 in the first thirty minutes and hasn’t covered a first-half spread of +4 or greater in six of those seven games.

We are taking the Browns on the first-half spread at -4.


A WALK IN THE WOODS

L.A. Rams receiver Robert Woods has been turning heads of late. The 27-year-old WR has hit the 95-yard mark in three straight games as he has seen 38 targets and has accumulated 364 yards over that stretch. Considering the Rams have only thrown the ball 100 times since Week 11, Woods owns 38 percent of the team’s target share and a whopping 46 percent of its total air yards.

The Seattle Seahawks will have their hands full with Woods, Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Tyler Higbee meaning Woods’ could find the vulnerable deep areas in Seattle’s Cover 3 zone defense as well as the open passes in the flats. Jared Goff passed for 396 yards against the Seahawks in Week 6 where Woods saw nine targets that he turned into five catches and 48 yards — numbers he can improve on this week.

Take the Over on Woods’ receiving total of 68.5 yards.


WAKING UP EARLY

Sticking with first-half plays, the New Orleans Saints will host the San Francisco 49ers in a game that has major home-field playoff implications. Both these teams sit Top-5 in first-half points scored in the last three weeks with the Saints and 49ers combining for 33.7 first-half points.

Since November, these two clubs are a combined 6-2 O/U on first-half totals of 22 points or less and this week both these offenses get to play in the warm and quick confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. We are getting behind the first-half Over 22.


QB TD

Patrick Mahomes has looked like his old self as the 2018 MVP has rushed for 84 yards and a TD in his last two games. Up next is New England’s No. 1 defense. If the KC QB can’t find his receivers against the No. 2 passing defense, Mahomes may have to improvise which one would think could lead to some QB rushing yards, but the Pats defense has also stuffed that this year.

Lamar Jackson ran for 3.6 yards per carry which is 3.4 yards lower than his average. Dak Prescott couldn’t gain any yardage on the ground either and most recently Deshaun Watson managed negative yards on four carries against New England.

Mahomes could still use his legs to help the team in the form of the more profitable QB rushing TD. Jackson did rush for two scores while Josh Allen also ran one in back in Week 4. With RB Damien Williams out, Andy Reid may have to get creative in the red zone which could possibly increase Mahomes rushing TD probability.

Sprinkle a little cheddar on a Mahomes’ rushing TD for a juicy return.

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 14
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Saints are 12-0 ATS (9.17 ppg) since Dec 26, 2004 coming off a road game where they gained no more than 15 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-12 ATS (-12.33 ppg) since Nov 09, 2014 coming off a game with at least 300 passing yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (7.11 ppg) since Dec 12, 2016 coming off a game where Julian Edelman had at least 100 receiving yards.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- PLAY AGAINST: Teams which committed over 100 penalty yards for two straight games are 18-31-3 ATS. Active against Jacksonville and New Orleans.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Colts are 0-11 OU (-10.32 ppg) since Dec 22, 2013 as a dog coming off a game where they allowed less than 200 passing yards.

-- The Redskins are 11-0-2 OU (10.12 ppg) since Nov 29, 2009 as a road dog when they covered by at least seven points last game.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Chargers are 12-0 ATS (+7.33 ppg) on the road when they lost their last two road games.

NFL USER TREND:
-- The Jaguars are 0-8 ATS since 2011 hosting AFC West teams.

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 14
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Ravens (-6, 44) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST
This matchup has plenty of ramifications for seeding in the AFC playoffs as the winner holds a crucial tiebreaker advantage. Baltimore (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) looks like a runaway train by winning eight consecutive games, while handing San Francisco its second loss of the season in last Sunday’s 20-17 home victory. The Ravens had their five-game ATS hot streak snapped as they failed to cash as 5 ½-point favorites, but Baltimore has excelled on the road this season with a 5-1 mark away from M&T Bank Stadium.

The Bills (9-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS) are the top Wild Card team in the AFC entering Week 14, while surprisingly sitting one game back of the Patriots for first place in the AFC East. Buffalo dominated Dallas on Thanksgiving day, 26-15 as 6 ½-point road underdogs to improve to 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the ‘dog role this season. Since losing at Cleveland four weeks ago, the Bills are riding a three-game winning streak, while hitting the UNDER in four of the past five contests.

These teams hooked up in the 2018 season opener in Baltimore as the Ravens destroyed the Bills, 47-3 as 7 ½-point favorites. MVP candidate Lamar Jackson did not start at quarterback in that blowout for Baltimore, as the Ravens have won seven of his career nine road starts with the two losses coming at Kansas City.

Best Bet: Ravens 20, Bills 17

49ers at Saints (-2, 44 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
Home-field advantage isn’t necessarily on the line at the Superdome on Sunday, but the winner is in an excellent position to own the top NFC seed. San Francisco (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) is fresh off its first road loss of the season in a 20-17 setback at Baltimore. In spite of the loss, the Niners improved to 4-0 ATS in the role of an away underdog, while facing its third straight opponent that currently owns a record of 9-3 or better. San Francisco has cashed the UNDER in four of six road contests, while yielding 20 points or fewer five times.

The Saints (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) wrapped up their third consecutive NFC South title by knocking off the Falcons on Thanksgiving night, 26-18 as seven-point road favorites. New Orleans moved to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite, while the Saints are 8-2 ATS since failing to cover in the first two games of the season. The Saints have topped the 30-point mark in four of six home contests, as Sean Payton’s team has compiled an 11-2 record in the past 13 regular season games in the Big Easy.

The Niners, Saints, and Seahawks all enter Sunday at 10-2 apiece as New Orleans owns the tiebreaker over Seattle. San Francisco still faces Seattle on the road for a second time in Week 17 after losing at home to the Seahawks last month. The Saints defeated the Niners, 41-23 in Santa Clara in 2016, while San Francisco is making its first trip to the Superdome since beating New Orleans in overtime back in 2014.

Best Bet: 49ers 23, Saints 19

Chiefs at Patriots (-3, 49 ½) – 4:25 PM EST
The much-anticipated rematch of the epic AFC championship game from last January between Kansas City and New England takes place on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) outlasted the Chiefs in overtime, 37-31 as three-point road underdogs to capture their third consecutive AFC title, while also pulling off the season sweep of Kansas City. New England grabbed the regular season matchup in Foxborough, 43-40, but the Chiefs cashed as slim 3 ½-point underdogs.

The stakes are high for the Patriots this time around, as they are tied with the Ravens for the top spot in the AFC playoffs, although New England loses the head-to-head tiebreaker with Baltimore. Bill Belichick’s team is coming off their second bad Sunday night road loss in less than a month in last Sunday’s 28-22 setback at Houston as three-point favorites. Tom Brady threw two late touchdown passes, but the Pats dug themselves a 28-9 hole that was nearly impossible to get out of.

The Chiefs (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) likely won’t possess home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but picked up some major breathing room for the top spot in the AFC West. Kansas City blasted Oakland last Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, 40-9 to easily cash as 11-point favorites, while owning a two-game edge over the Raiders with four contests remaining. Patrick Mahomes has failed to pass for more than 182 yards in each of the last two games for Kansas City, but the Chiefs enter Foxborough with a 5-1 record this season on the road.

Best Bet: Patriots 31, Chiefs 24

BEST TOTAL PLAY
UNDER 47 – Seahawks at Rams

Seattle outlasted Los Angeles, 30-29 in the first meeting earlier this season to eclipse the OVER of 49. The total dropped two points for this matchup at the L.A. Coliseum as the Rams’ defense has been sharp of late by allowing 17 points or less in five of the past six games. The Seahawks have given up 10, 20, and 24 points after yielding 30 points in the previous contest this season. The last four meetings between these NFC West have finished OVER the total, but the Rams have scored 17 and 6 points in two primetime home games this season.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

When the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas released early lines for Week 14 on November 26, the Browns were listed as 10 ½-point home favorites over the Bengals. Adjustments were made following Cleveland’s loss at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati grabbing its first win of the season last week as the Browns are currently a seven-point favorite. These Ohio rivals are meeting for the first time in 2019 as Cleveland swept the series last season, but the Bengals are 7-1 ATS in the past eight matchups.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Cardinals were blown out by the Rams at home last week, as Arizona welcomes in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are feeling good about themselves after rallying past the rival Browns last week to improve to 7-5 and being in line for a Wild Card berth. Arizona has lost five straight games, while Pittsburgh is 6-1 the last seven contests. However, the Cardinals feature the better quarterback in Kyler Murray as opposed to Pittsburgh’s Devlin Hodges, who is making only his third career start. Arizona is a 1 ½-point underdog, as the Cardinals are 3-2 ATS in the role of a home ‘dog.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Jaguars don’t save their best football for December. It’s not like Jacksonville fared well in November this season, but the Jags are 2-5 SU/ATS in their last seven December contests since 2017. In those seven games, Jacksonville has been limited to 17 points or fewer each time, while hitting the UNDER six times. The Jags host the stumbling Chargers on Sunday as three-point underdogs, as the total sits at 43.

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 14
Joe Williams

We're into our first weekend of December and Week 14 of the National Football League regular season. We have just four more weeks of NFL action before the playoffs begin. The Thursday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys-Chicago Bears saw the 'over' connect, a rarity for TNF.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 13 8-8 9-7 6-10
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 92-99-1 90-101-1 83-104-5

The 'over' and 'under' ended up 8-8 during the Thanksgiving week, with the 'over' connecting in two of the three primetime games, and the 'under' going 2-1 in the Thursday action. The public loves 'over' results, and there were plenty, though.

Savvy bettors playing the halves watched the 'over' go 9-7 in the first-half but the scoring slowed down in the final 30 minutes and that helped the 'under' go 10-6 in the second-half. On the season, the low side has trended ahead in both the first-half (101-90-1) and second-half (104-83-5).

Division Bell

In the seven divisional battles in Week 13, the slight edge went to the 'under' - including NFC South battle between the New Orleans Saints-Atlanta Falcons on Thanksgiving night. The under is now 36-31 (53.7%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 13

Chicago at Detroit (Thu.) Over (37) Chicago 24, Detroit 20
New Orleans at Atlanta (Thu.) Under (48) New Orleans 26, Atlanta 18
Tennessee at Indianapolis Over (42) Tennessee 31, Indianapolis 17
Cleveland at Pittsburgh Under (40) Pittsburgh 20, Cleveland 13
L.A. Rams at Arizona Under (47.5) L.A. Rams 34, Arizona 7
Oakland at Kansas City Under (49.5) Kansas City 40, Oakland 9
L.A. Chargers at Denver Over (38.5) Denver 23, L.A. Chargers 20

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 14 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay: 50 ½ to 47
Denver at Houston: 40 ½ to 42 ½
Miami at N.Y. Jets: 44 to 46
Pittsburgh at Arizona: 45 ½ to 43 ½
Kansas City at New England: 50 ½ to 49
L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville: 44 ½ to 43

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 14 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Washington at Green Bay: Over 88%
Miami at N.Y. Jets: Over 87%
Baltimore at Buffalo: Over 83%
Denver at Houston: Over 83%
L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville: Under 79%
Carolina at Atlanta: Under 78%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (75 percent) in the Cincinnati at Cleveland matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in San Francisco at New Orleans (68 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 14

Week 13 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 3-4 29-34
NFC vs. NFC 2-0 20-21
AFC vs. AFC 1-1 17-17-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-3 26-26

Week 14 Action

Baltimore at Buffalo: It will be offense vs. defense when the Ravens invade Ralph Wilson Stadium in Orchard Park on Sunday. We only need to look back at last Sunday to see how well that worked out, as Baltimore MVP candidate quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens won 20-17 over the defensive-minded 49ers. This one will be on the road in Buffalo, and the Bills have four 'under' results in six home game sthis season, while posting a 4-1 under mark across the past five overall. They have allowed just 12 total points in their past two home games, but that was against the Broncos and Redskins. Obviously Jackson and the Ravens provide a much bigger challenge. Baltimore had posted 30 or more points in five straight games until their 20-point showing last week against the Niners. The Ravens have averaged 44.6 PPG in four games this season as road favorites and the over has produced a 4-0 record in those contests.

San Francisco at New Orleans: Speaking of the Niners, they'll renew acquaintances with QB Drew Brees and the Saints down in the Big Easy. The 49ers hit the 'under' in last week's road game, and the under is now 4-2 across the past six away from home, including 3-1 in the past four. While their defense hasn't been as dominant as earlier in the season, allowing 106 total points - or 21.2 PPG - across the past five games, they still showed how much they can dominate in a battle against the Packers Nov. 24, allowing just eight points. The under is 3-1 in four games east of the Mississippi River this season, and this will be their fifth and final game in such situation. Even though New Orleans has been a great over bet at home historically, the club has watched its total results produce a stalemate (3-3) through six games at the Superdome this season.

Cincinnati at Cleveland: The Bengals and Browns will battle twice in the final four weeks of the season. Last season the Browns swept the series with the 'over' going 1-0-1. However, the 'under' is 4-0-1 in the past five meetings at FirstEnergy Stadium. In the past nine meetings, the winning team has managed 30.4 points while the losing side has posted 12.4 points, and the 'under' is 5-3-1 during that span. The under is 3-1 across Cleveland's past four outings, and the offense has managed just 21 or fewer points in five of the past six, and eight of their 12 outings overall. The Bengals posted 22 points last week in their win over the Jets, their first time with more than 17 points since Oct. 6. The 'under' has hit in three in a row for the Bengals, and is 6-0 in six road games this season, while going 8-3-1 in 12 games overall.

Carolina at Atlanta: The Panthers and Falcons just met on Nov. 17, and Atlanta came away with a 29-3 road victory as the 'under' hit. That's one of five under results in the past six for the Falcons. They have also hit the under in five of their six games this season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, 17.6 PPG in six home dates. As far as the Panthers are concerned, they're in freefall, and this will be their first game without fired head coach Ron Rivera. We'll see if the coaching regime change sparks more in the way of offense. The Panthers are averaging just 17.8 PPG over the past four outings. Defense has been another issue, as they cannot stop anyone. They have allowed 20 or more points in eight straight games, and 11 of 12 games overall. As such, the over is 6-2 across the past eight outings, although one of those unders was, of course, the battle with the Falcs.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: It's a rematch of their Nov. 3 battle, and the Dolphins look for another win over their rivals. Miami won 26-18 in the first meeting at Hard Rock Stadium, an 'over' result. The over has actually hit in three straight for Miami, as their offense has come alive with totals of 20, 34 and 37 while defensively they're still poor, yielding 37, 41 and 31. The Jets were humming along with three straight 34-point performances on offense until they stumbled in Cincinnati of all places, falling 22-6. The under is 7-2 in the past nine meetings at MetLife Stadium between these AFC East rivals.

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay: The Colts have been very banged up, but they'll likely get RB Marlon Mack (hand) back this week. The offense has been a little listless over the past two, going for 17 points in each outing, both losses. However, the Bucs are among the worst against the pass. Still, Indy has hit the 'under' in three of their past four road outings. This will be the first of three road games in the final four outings for the Colts. The Bucs managed 28 points last week in Jacksonville, as they did their part in trying to hit the 'over'. However, they allowed just 11 points, a season best, and that put a stop to an 8-0 'over' run for Tampa. The over is 4-0 in the past four at Raymond James Stadium since an under in Week 1 against the 49ers.

L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville: The Jaguars are making a change back to rookie QB Gardner Minshew, as they try to jump-start the offense after an 11-point effort against the Bucs. They have managed just 3, 13, 20 and 11 across the past four outings, hitting the under in two of four. That's because their defense has been horrific, yielding 26, 33, 42 and 28. Perhaps the change at QB helps somewhat, but they need to learn how to tackle again, too. The Bolts are struggling mightily, too, and they have hit the under in eight of the past 11 games. The under is 3-1 in four games for the Bolts in the Eastern or Central Time Zones this season, too.

Kansas City at New England: The Chiefs enter play with back-to-back under results for the first time this season, mainly due to an impressive turnaround defensively, yielding just 17 and 9 in the past two games against the Chargers and Raiders. The Patriots are a completely different animal, however. Remember, in the past three meetings in this series since Sept. 7, 2017 we have seen a 42-27 win by the Chiefs in Foxboro, a 43-40 win by the Patriots on Oct. 14, 2018 and a 37-31 win in overtime in last season's AFC Championship Game. The over has cashed in five straight meetings in this series, too. For the Chiefs, the over has cashed in 12 of the past 16 on the road, and is 12-3-1 in their past 16 as a road 'dog. It's the complete opposite for the Patriots, with the under 17-6 in the past 23 or New England as a favorite, and 7-3 in the past 10 at home.

Pittsburgh at Arizona: The Steelers made a change to QB Devlin Hodges Iast week and it paid off with a 20-13 win, and an 'under' result. That's four straight under results for the Steelers, and the under has hit in 9-3 in their 12 games overall. For the Cardinals, they hit the under last week in a loss at home to the Rams, scoring a season-low seven points. The last time they scored in single digits they rebounded with 25 points in the following game, an 'over' result. The over is 4-2 in six games at home for the Cardinals.

Tennessee at Oakland: The Titans have not only been competitive since changing from QB Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill, they have been one of the better teams in the league. They were blanked in Denver on Oct. 13, so head coach Mike Vrabel made the decision to go to Tannehill. He might have earned himself Coach of the Year honors, as they have won five of six since, and they have scored 20 or more points during the span, including 35, 42 and 31 across the past three, all covers and 'over' results. The over is 6-0 in the past six for Tennessee since moving to Tannehill. The Raiders offense has disappeared in the past three outings, averaging just 9.7 PPG. However, defensively they're still challenged, allowing a total of 74 points in the past two. That bodes well for another Tennessee 'over' result.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with a spread of nine points or more for Week 13, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 42 to 46 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Washington at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. ET): The Packers offense has been a bit erratic lately, scoring 31 points last week after just eight in the previous outing. They hit the over last week as a result of a 31-point outburst against the Giants, and they'll face another sub-.500 team this week. The over is 19-7 in Green Bay's past 26 against losing teams, as that's when QB Aaron Rodgers and the offense really shines. The Redskins found a running game last week, and we'll see if they can continue to make progress in that area on the road. They went for a season-high 29 points in last week's win at skidding Carolina, and they're averaging a respectable 24.0 PPG across the past two outings. For the Redskins, the under is 4-1 in the past five instances they have been a double-digit underdog, although the over hit last week in their outright win in the situation, and also in Week 1, a 32-27 setback in Philadelphia.

Denver at Houston (1:00 p.m. ET): The Broncos have seen the over hit in three of the past four, mainly because their defense is showing some signs of wear. They have allowed 20, 20 and 27 across the past three, and the offense is a little better lately, too. They've posted 24, 23, 3 and 23 across the past four, including last week's 23-20 win over the Chargers in rookie QB Drew Lock's first-career start. The Texans have hit for 28, 20, 7, 26, 27, 23, 31 and 53 in the past eight games, with that lone single-digit anomaly a blowout loss against Jackson and the Ravens. This will be Houston's first game as a double-digit favorite this season.

Detroit at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. ET): The Vikings blasted the Lions 42-30 at Ford Field on Oct. 20 in the first meeting. This will be just the third time they're favored by 10 or more points, and there isn't a ton to glean in that department. They hit the under in a Thursday night game as a 16.5-point favorite vs. the Redskins on Oct. 24, and the over hit in their 27-23 win over the Broncos on Nov. 17. They are 0-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite. The Lions haven't been a double-digit 'dog all season, but the over is 2-0 in their two games as an underdog by seven or more points, so there's that.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): See below

Under the Lights

Seattle at L.A. Rams (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Seahawks and Rams battle for the second time this season. In the first game in Seattle on Oct. 3, also a primetime game, the Seahawks edged the Rams 30-29 on a Thursday as the 'over' easily connected. The Rams offense gained some confidence last week with 34 points in Arizona, which was just one point less than they have combined in their previous three outings. The 'under' is 6-1 across the past seven for the Rams, as the defense has allowed 10 or fewer points in four of the past six, too. For the Seahawks, they have hit the 'over' in three of the past four outings, scoring 40, 27, 17 and 37, while yielding 34, 24, 9 and 30.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Giants and Eagles will square off in a less than attractive MNF game, but the games all bet the same. This will be the first of two meetings over the final four regular-season games. As a double-digit favorite the Eagles have hit the over in two of three situations. The Eagles defense allowed a stunning 37 points last week to the previously impotent Dolphins offense. The G-Men have hit the over in four of the past five games, and the over is 1-0 in their previous game as a double-digit underdog back on Oct. 10 in New England, also a primetime game. The defense has been abysmal for the Giants lately, allowing 27 or more points in seven of the past eight games, and 10 or 12 overall. The over is 2-1 in New York's three previous divisional games this season. Make a note that QB Eli is expected to start this Monday for New York.

[Udog]

SNF - Seahawks at Rams
Matt Blunt

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

It's always great this time of year when a big division game gets flexed into the SNF spot, and that's precisely what we've got this week with Seattle going on the road to face the Rams. A national audience saw Seattle play well enough to get by Minnesota on MNF last week, as that game vaulted the Seahawks into the top spot in the conference at the moment. Whether Seattle stays there is another question entirely, but if they are able to beat a desperate Rams team in LA this week, that will definitely go a long way.

The Rams are still in survival mode right now as their only hope to get back to the playoffs is through a Wild Card spot, and they may have to win out to do so. LA kept that hope alive with a dominating win from start to finish over Arizona last week, and with road dates vs Dallas and San Francisco on deck, the path is far from easy.

Yet, judging from the early market action this week, the Rams do have plenty of support in their corner this week, but will they get the job done?

Total Talk

This total has bounced around quite a bit this week as an opening number of 46.5 initially got bet up as high as 48.5 before 'under' support came back into have it currently sitting right back where it started at 46.5. A difference of opinion from bettors is ideal for the oddsmakers, as they can sweep up the juice on a spot like that no matter where it lands.

Going forward, it's tough to envision any other significant movement for this total the rest of the week, as it could bounce higher again, but chances are it hovers right around this 46.5 number. And with the division flip-flop theory suggesting the 'under' is the way to go after the first game – 30-29 Seattle win – easily cashed an 'over' ticket, looking on the low side of things is probably the only way to look.

I'm not that interested in it at the current price, but as more and more recreational action pours in over the weekend, I would not be surprised to see a move upwards again. After all, both sides are coming off efforts where they each put up 30+, and did have 59 points in the first meeting, and those tend to be some of the first things recreational bettors see/remember when handicapping this game. Should this total climb back up to 48 or higher I would be much more interested in going low, but at this current stage, it's an easy pass.

Side Spiel

The point spread on this game has seen significant movement as well, as the Rams have completely flipped to being currently listed as a -1 favorite now after opening up at +2.5/3. Hard not to take notice of a move like that considering the significance of this game in both the standings and television time slot, and it's a move that shouldn't be taken lightly.

It's understandable on multiple levels why the Rams have gotten plenty of support, as Seattle continues to have the statistical profile of a team that's winning more with smoke and mirrors then pure domination – a +36 point differential thanks in large part to a +10 turnover differential. The turnover differential is likely unsustainable, and being a side that's sitting at 10-2 SU this week with just a +36 point differential is highly unsustainable as well. I mean, the Rams come into this game at +33 and are just 7-5 SU. That's typically where teams like Seattle would be, but they've been on the right side of a lot of bounces this year.

At the same time, Rams support has come in because this is another week where LA's season is essentially on the line. A loss this week really puts them in a bind in terms of any Wild Card chance, especially with the two road games they've got on deck. But a victory over a somewhat fraudulent Seattle team could also work wonders in terms of momentum for Seattle going forward, and you've got to keep that in mind as well.

Final Thoughts

With the last three meetings between these two teams all been decided by five points or less, we can expect a close game in this one regardless. If you do remember back to that first meeting this year, LA probably should have won that game outright – one of those games where Seattle was on the right side of a few bounces/calls – and since then, I believe the Rams have had this rematch circled on their calendar.

Obviously, LA did not plan on having to fight for their playoff lives when this return match rolled around, but that situation only adds to the notion that they will aim to be at their best from the outset here.

With the way this line has already moved, it's a Rams ML play or nothing here, and even though it's far from the best of the number now, I do think LA is the right side.

Best Bet: Rams Money-Line (-110)

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 14
Tony Mejia

Ravens (-6/44) at Bills, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Buffalo legitimately has one of the NFL’s most impressive defenses, ranking third in the league in yards allowed. They’re up next to step up to try and contain Lamar Jackson and a Ravens’ offense that comes off their least-productive offensive performance of the season, beating the 49ers 20-17 at the gun in rainy Baltimore on Sunday. The weather should be a little more cooperative this time around since precipitation is expected to stay away until the evening, but Jackson and counterpart Josh Allen will have to deal with significant 20-plus degree winds that will make temperatures feel like they’re below freezing as a backdrop.

Buffalo has allowed more than 21 points at home only once this season and has seen the ‘under’ prevail in four of its last five games. They’ll look to execute a defensive game plan likely to copy some of San Francisco’s strategies last week since they held the Ravens to just 125 second-half yards last week. Baltimore was able to pull off the win by milking the clock and moving the chains on their final possession, setting up Justin Tucker’s winning 49-yard kick. The Bills will similarly be looking to keep the ball on the ground in a game like this, so if you find a prop on which of the 1 p.m. starts ends first, this would be a prime candidate given the weather conditions. Big plays in the passing game could come via the element of surprise with speedy guys like Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and John Brown on opposite sides. With road games at Pittsburgh and New England on deck, the Bills would love to wrap up a playoff berth with an upset here. The number has held steady around at most shops after opening at 6.5. Backup Bills tackle Ty Nsekhe is the only player ruled out due to injury in this matchup, a rarity this time of year given how physical these teams are.

Broncos at Texans (-9/42.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Drew Lock picked up a win in his first pro start thanks to a well-thrown ball drawing a last-second pass interference penalty, but he’ll be hitting the road for the first time here. He’s shown off a great connection with second-year WR Courtland Sutton, so Houston will have to be wary of deep balls as they try to build off a strong performance in shutting down Tom Brady and the Patriots despite an ugly season stopping opposing aerial attacks. Meanwhile, the Texans’ offense has produced 20 or more points in seven of eight. Deshaun Watson’s receiving corps was fully-stocked and producing but will now again have to deal with Will Fuller IV’s absence due to a hamstring issue. This total could potentially close as the lowest we’ve seen in a Houston game all season if it doesn’t hit 43.

Vic Fangio’s defensive scheming and his propensity for keeping games close are reasons to like the ‘under’ and take the points since Denver has only been blown out twice this season. Broncos LB Von Miller hopes to return from a sprained left MCL but will be a game-time decision. He was limited on Friday and reported feeling better but it doesn’t make much sense for him to risk a return if he can’t be himself out there. Even running the table would only get them to .500, so there will be no playoff run to be had. That’s not the case for Houston, which is now in great shape to at least host a playoff game as a division-winner and owns tiebreakers over Kansas City and New England. Corners Gareon Conley and Bradley Roby, both listed as questionable, are expected to play to try and keep Lock and Sutton from making inroads on the road. The Texans are 5-1 SU at home but have only covered in two of those games and are saddled with their largest spread of the season.

49ers at Saints (-2/44.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: This battle of 10-2 teams will certainly test the visiting Niners since they’re coming off their first road defeat and chose to pick themselves up in Florida at Bradenton’s IMG Academy, practicing there before leaving for New Orleans. They won’t have safety Jaquiski Tartt available but should get back tackle Joe Staley and have tight end George Kittle feeling healthier. DE Dee Ford is also likely due back, so you can count on San Francisco aggressively coming after Drew Brees, who will have to be at his best as he looks to post another solid offensive performance. The Saints have averaged 31.3 points in four wins since his return from a thumb injury but were held to a season-low nine points by an aggressive Falcons defense on Nov. 10. With guard Andrus Peat already out, it’s important that the Saints have tackle Terron Armstead out there to protect against the Nick Bosa-led pass rush.

The Saints will also have to figure out a way to contain San Francisco’s physical run blocking without linebackers Kiko Alonso and A.J. Klein, which has led to the signing of veteran Manti Te’o, who has been out all season after being dumped and going unsigned. Jimmy Garoppolo will have Emanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel available to punish the Saints defense if they shadow too much coverage Kittle’s way or double-team the All-Pro tight end, so this is going to be one terrific chess match. Marcell Harris, who forced a key fumble last week – one of Jackson’s rare mistakes this season – is expected to be Tartt’s replacement. Michael Thomas became the fastest to 400 career receptions ever on Thanksgiving night in helping beat the Falcons and finished 37 catches for 415 yards in November, earning him Player of the Month honors. It’s on him and Alvin Kamara to punish the 49ers if they’re too aggressive, but Brees will have to be decisive and quick with his reads. Holding the ball here wouldn’t go well.

Colts at Bucs (-3/47), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Indianapolis is forced to run the table if it is going to reach the playoffs and will have to do so on the road since three of its final four games will be played in opposing stadiums. Considering how resilient they Colts have already been forced to be given Andrew Luck’s preseason retirement and a myriad of injuries that left Jacoby Brissett with limited options in the passing game, it’s worth wondering just how much they have left given the daunting task ahead. Frank Reich has to keep his group together. RB Marlon Mack will return to the mix and the Sarasota native will be performing in front of family and friends in a stadium he knows well considering he played there throughout his career at USF, but Brissett again won’t be able to count on top WR T.Y. Hilton. Brissett, also a Floridian from West Palm Beach, will square off with a vulnerable Bucs secondary hoping to get M.J. Stewart back from a knee injury. Jamel Dean, who left last week’s win over the Jags with a shoulder injury, should also be expected out there.

Tampa Bay has a chance to put together another big offensive game as Jameis Winston has produced four games where they’ve scored at least 28 points despite his turnover woes. Monitor whether CB Rock Ya-Sin and safety Malik Hooker get the nod to play in this game since CB Kenny Moore has already been ruled out. If you’re up for the shootout angle, Mother Nature won’t get in the way. Temperatures will be in the high 70’s and the sun will be in attendance to see how Winston’s latest rollercoaster ride turns out. Top targets Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are each already atop the 1,000-yard mark.

Chiefs at Patriots (-3/49), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: Most eyes will be on this game in the late window as the Chiefs look to make one last push to see if they’ll be able to overcome this season’s hiccups and secure a much coveted first-round bye. Let’s face it, they’ll likely be looking at hosting likely No. 5 seed Buffalo on Wild Card weekend if they can’t pull off this upset. If they can? Well, you’ll surely again here that the Patriots are done if they go down here since that would also place an increased importance on its Dec. 22 home date with the Bills if the AFC East is suddenly in play.

After a listless Sunday night effort against Houston, Brady and the offense will look to keep pace with the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs, who may be forced to throw it around more than usual since RBs Damien Williams and Darrel Williams have been ruled out. LeSean McCoy will split carries with rookie Darwin Thompson and newly resigned Spencer Ware, so it will be interesting to see what the workload for the trio ends up being and whether pass protection suffers or if tight end Travis Kelce is forced to be more of a blocker than receiver.

Even all those variables put together don’t equal the uncertainty facing a Pats’ offense that has Brady nursing a toe injury and the unit glaringly lacking a No. 1 threat after the offseason retirement of Rob Gronkowski and the failed Antonio Brown experiment. Brady has thrown six picks and 18 touchdowns while Mahomes has 20 TD passes against just two interceptions and is by far leading the more dynamic offense. New England’s defense will only be able to rely on its vocal fan base for a homefield edge here since the nasty weather that is so often a part of its success at home in December won’t be an issue here. Temperatures will be just above freezing but wind won’t be a factor. The Patriots’ defense has been tremendous all season but has taken their production up even a few more notches at Gillette Stadium, giving up no more than 14 points in any of their five wins this season. New England tackle Marcus Cannon and Kansas City DE Frank Clark were both listed on the injury report due to illness but will likely play.

Steelers (-2/43.5) at Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: Kyler Murray comes off his team’s lowest-scoring game of his rookie season, a 34-7 rout at the hands of the Rams at home in which his offense was decisively shut down. He certainly hasn’t been the problem despite the 22-year-old top pick currently being mired in a five-game losing streak that represents the most losing he’s ever done in his career, so we’ll see how resilient he can be considering he’ll face a number of motivated, talented defenses to close out the final month of his first pro year. Monitor whether center A.Q. Shipley will play since he’s expected to be a game-time decision and would further complicate matters for Arizona.

Devlin Hodges beat the Chargers in his lone road start and got into a win in Cincinnati, so he’s proven capable on the road. After helping defeat the Browns last season, the task of helping fuel Pittsburgh’s unlikely playoff push. After being cut at the end of training camp and replaced by Mason Rudolph once he was ready to fill back in for an injured Ben Roethlisberger, Hodges, an undrafted rookie from Samford whose nicknamed is tied to being a champion duck caller, is thrust in the spotlight looking to pick up a win over the top QB of his rookie class, doing so on the road no less. The heavy lifting will likely be done by the Steelers’ defense since RB James Conner and WR Juju Smith-Schuster remain sidelined, so expect a conservative game plan from Pittsburgh. It will help a ton to get center Maurkice Pouncey back from suspension. Corner Artie Burns should return too. The ‘under’ is 9-3 in Steelers games this season, prevailing in each of the last four contests.

[Udog]

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 14
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 14 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-4
Against the Spread 8-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 5-9-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 113-71-1
Against the Spread 89-108-6

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 110-92-1
Against the Spread 86-111-6

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 99-103-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Broncos (+8, ML +350) at Texans, 38-24
Bears (+3, ML +145) vs. Cowboys (Thu.), 31-24
Chiefs (+3, ML +140) at Patriots, 23-16

The largest favorite to cover
Vikings (-12) vs. Lions, 20-7
Browns (-6.5) vs. Bengals, 27-19
Ravens (-6) at Bills, 24-17

It's a LOCK!

-- The Denver Broncos (+8) have turned the keys over to rookie QB Drew Lock and he led the biggest upset of the weekend with a surprising 38-24 win on the road over the Houston Texans. It was a surprise going by pregame preview, and the line, only. If you watched the game, it was a thorough beatdown in favor of the visitors. The Broncos fired out to a 21-0 lead with 11:24 to go in the second quarter, as the Broncos had two TD passes for Lock and a 70-yard fumble recovery for touchdown. They took a surprising 38-3 lead at halftime, and they held a 38-3 lead at 9:15 of the third quarter before the Texans found the end zone midway through the third. The Broncos are 2-0 SU/ATS with Lock under center, and they're 5-1 ATS across the past six with the over 4-1 in the past five outings. Denver is also 7-2 ATS across the past nine contests.

Total Recall

-- There were three games with totals of 48 or greater -- Kansas City Chiefs-New England Patriots (49), Carolina Panthers-Atlanta Falcons (48) and the Sunday Night Football game between the Seattle Seahawks-Los Angeles Rams (48). Only one of those games managed to go 'over', as the Falcons beat up on the Panthers 40-20. Atlanta led just 3-0 after 15 minutes, but the Falcons ended up posting 10 or more points in each of the final three quarters, and the Panthers also hit double digits in the second and fourth. The Chiefs and Patriots appeared headed for a high-scoring affair, totaling 27 points in the first half, but there were a total of just 12 points in the final 30 minutes. The same held true in the Seahawks-Rams affair, with 24 total points on the board at halftime, but just 16 total points in the final two quarters.

There were three games at 42.5 or lower on Sunday, with Denver Broncos-Houston Texans (42.5), Los Angeles Chargers-Jacksonville Jaguars (42) and Washington Redskins-Green Bay Packers (42) saw the over hit in two of the outings, with the Chargers taking care of business themselves, 45-10. We mentioned the Broncos, and their prolific offensive effort above. Only the Redskins and Packers hit the under, totaling just 35 points. The Packers fired out of the chute at 14-0 after one quarter, but we had just two touchdowns and three field goals the rest of the way.

The Pittsburgh Steelers-Arizona Cardinals (43.5) ended up with 23 points in the first half, but just 17 points in the second half. A turnover in the end zone in the second half by QB Kyler Murray was rather costly, and he made some real rookie mistakes in this one which likely prevented this game from going over. That's five straight under results for the Steelers, seven in the past eight, and 10-3 in their 13 games overall this season.

The 'over' connected in the Thursday game between the Dallas Cowboys-Chicago Bears (43), while the Seahawks-Rams game on SNF went 'under'. We still have the New York Giants-Philadelphia Eagles (45) game to go. The 'over' is just 16-26 (38.1%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Looking Ahead - Division Matchups

-- The Eagles and Redskins tangle in D.C., a rematch of their Week 1 affair. The Eagles won that opener by a 32-27 at Lincoln Financial Field, failing to cover a 10-point number as the 'over' (44) easily hit. The Redskins saw the 'over' hit in their first three games this season, but the 'under' is 8-2 across the past 10, including 3-1 in the previous four at home.

-- The Texans and Tennessee Titans square off in a key AFC South Division battle, and it got that much more important following Houston's complete failure at home against the lowly Broncos. The Texans are just 2-5 ATS across the past seven games overall, and they're 3-9 ATS in the past 12 against teams with a winning overall mark. The Texans are also 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the division. For the Titans, they have covered four in a row, they're 3-0-1 ATS in the past four at home and they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five as a favorite.

-- The Broncos and Chiefs do battle on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium at 1:00 p.m. ET, and suddenly Denver looks alive and well with Lock under center. The Chiefs looked alive and well going on the road and exacting revenge for their AFC Championship Game loss, topping the Patriots at Gillette. While Denver has been hot lately, they're still just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 games inside the division. The under is also 8-1-1 in the past 10 games inside the division. Denver is 1-7 ATS in the past eight meetings with the Chiefs, but 7-3 ATS in their past 10 trips to Kansas City. The over is 5-2-2 in the past nine meetings, including 3-0-1 in the past four at Arrowhead.

-- The Bears and Packers renew acquaintances at Lambeau Field. They met back in Week 1 on Thursday night with the Packers scratching out a 10-3 win in a defensive battle. The under is 3-3 at home, and 3-3 on the road, for the Packers so far this season, so not much to glean there. The under is 8-5 for the Bears this season, with the over/under at 3-3 on the road. The Bears have cashed in just two of the past nine overall, but they did cover at home as three-point 'dogs against the Cowboys on TNF last week. Still, they're 0-4 ATS in the past four on the road. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in the past six against teams with a winning record, but they're just 3-8 ATS in the past 11 inside the division.

[Udog]

NFL Week 15 opening odds and early action: Rams-Cowboys line could quickly tighten
Patrick Everson

The Rams and Cowboys, both trying to gain spots in the NFC playoff field, square off Sunday. Dallas opened as 3-point home chalk, but SuperBook director John Murray expects that line to tighten.

With three weeks remaining in the regular season, playoff pursuits are heating up in the NFL. We check in on the opening lines and early action for four Week 15 matchups, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Dallas is flailing about after two straight losses from the favorite’s role, yet somehow still leads the NFC East at 6-7 SU (7-6 ATS). In the Week 14 Thursday nighter, the Cowboys dug themselves into a 24-7 hole at Chicago and couldn’t come all the way back, losing 31-24 as 3-point favorites.

Los Angeles is the defending NFC champion, but hasn’t lived up to that status this season. That said, the Rams (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) notched one of their most impressive wins of the season under the Sunday night spotlight, dumping Seattle 28-12 giving 1 point at home.

“We had this game Cowboys -3 before the Sunday night game, but the Rams looked so good that I think this line should reopen less than 3,” Murray said, noting the Rams-Cowboys line was taken off the board during the Sunday night game and will go back up Monday morning. “There will be a lot of support for both sides this week.”

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)

Houston is kind of like the Dallas of the AFC South, given ample opportunity to seize the division and consistently failing to do so. The Texans (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) went off as 8-point home favorites against a four-win Denver team, but trailed 31-3 at halftime and fell 38-24.

That loss allowed Tennessee to stay right with Houston in the AFC South race. The Titans (8-5 SU and ATS) were 3-point favorites at Oakland on Sunday and turned a 21-21 halftime tie into a 42-21 victory, moving to 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games.

“The Titans have been on a roll lately, and the line already moved from -3 (even) to -3 (-110),” Murray said. “The Texans laid an egg Sunday, but they have been much better on the road.”

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)

Pittsburgh is among the biggest surprises of the year, after Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown moved on in the offseason, and Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) was lost for the season in Week 2. In Week 14, the Steelers (7-5, 6-4-2) topped Arizona 23-17 laying 2.5 points on the road, their sixth win in the last seven games.

Likewise, Buffalo is arguably a surprise playoff contender, although its three-game SU and ATS upswing ended in Week 14. The Bills (9-4 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) fell to Baltimore 24-17 catching 6 points at home.

“We opened Steelers -1 and have been pushed up to -1.5,” Murray said. “The public will be all over the Steelers here. We will need the Bills.”

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)

Green Bay hardly looked impressive in Week 14, but Aaron Rodgers and Co. did enough to remain atop the NFC North. The Packers (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) held off Washington 20-15 as hefty 13-point home favorites.

Chicago has fallen off in a huge way from its 2018-19 form, when it went 12-4 SU and a league-leading 12-4 ATS. However, the Bears (7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS) have won three in a row and four of five to climb above .500. And Chicago gets the benefit of a mini-bye this week, after beating Dallas 31-24 as 3-point home underdogs in the Week 14 Thursday nighter.

“We opened this game Packers -5.5 and are down to -5,” Murray said. “The Packers didn’t look good at all Sunday, and the Bears are always a popular public side, so there should be support for both in this game.”

[Udog]

MNF - Giants at Eagles
Tony Mejia

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (-9.5, 45), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

Following an alarming 37-31 upset loss in Miami to open December, the Eagles appeared certain to miss the playoffs. Consider what a disaster that would be.

After reaching the Divisional Playoffs last season following their Super Bowl breakthrough, the Eagles were one of this year’s title favorites, ranking just behind the Chiefs and Patriots in the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook’s odds prior to the season kicking off. They were NFC co-favorites alongside the Bears and Saints. Philadelphia was -240 to reach the postseason and offered a +190 return on investment if you chose to fade them.

Teams that carry that significant a burden of expectations can’t open the regular-season’s final month by losing to a Dolphins team that at one point looked like a decent bet to go winless in 2019. Doing so screams that there’s dysfunction behind the scenes.

Philadelphia’s secondary was victimized by Ryan Fitzpatrick to help overcome Carson Wentz’s most productive outing since mid-October, allowing comments about his inaccuracy due to a hand injury and the fact he’s struggled to regain his form pre-ACL tear to linger. Rumors of not getting along with WR Alshon Jeffery have made the rounds too. You know the drill. In professional sports, when you win, those stories go away. When you fail, critics play up the drama and point fingers.

However, the Dallas Cowboys have been wasteful too. With the Redskins and Giants being non-factors, the playoff spot the NFC East is entitled to remains out there for the Eagles to secure, which means this dreadful season where they’ve disappointed and underachieved can at least end with one last surge. While that may not be enough to prevent a major change or two come offseason, picking up an opportunity to host a playoff game on Wild Card weekend would be great for business.

That’s why Thursday’s loss in Chicago served to charge up the Eagles as it has. With Dallas failing to take advantage of Philadelphia’s plight in losing their third straight game, 31-24, at Soldier Field, Philadelphia (5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS) is actually in a position of strength if it can get its act together. By holding serve against New York (2-10, 4-8), it would tie the Cowboys for the NFC East lead. Dallas still has to host the Rams before visiting the Eagles on Dec. 22 and would be in position to be eliminated with losses in both.

The disappointing Eagles might even be able to rest starters in Week 17’s finale against the Giants if it can hold serve in contests that they should be favored in over the next three weeks.

While that’s all lovely on paper, getting it done on the field is what will matter this week as they try and snap a three-game losing streak that is already the franchise’s longest since 2016. Philadelphia will be playing a New York team that its owned over the past five years – take a look at the recent series history below for details – and will incredibly run into an unexpected familiar face it has terrorized in veteran QB Eli Manning, who will start for the first time since a 28-14 loss at Buffalo in Week 2. He’ll be making his 32nd career start against the Eagles and will take the field at Lincoln Financial Field for the 17th time.

Rookie Daniel Jones, who has had some nice moments despite his team’s lack of success, is unlikely to play through a high ankle sprain this week but should be back this month, which may make this the final start of Manning’s career. He’s 116-116 as a starter, so if you’re not a proponent of him reaching the Hall of Fame despite his two Super Bowl wins and stat accumulation over his 16-year run, you don’t want to see an upset here. The 38-year-old former No. 1 overall pick will be without top tight end Evan Engram (foot) – see the injury report below for all details on who is in and out – and will have to fight the elements too.

Rain is expected throughout the day in Philadelphia, and although 15-degree winds may not be too trifling, it probably won’t do much for helping Manning get into an early rhythm. At some point during the game, the weather forecast calls for conditions to finally clear up, so consider that a huge variable in this one and read on for a great take on the Monday night total.

The Giants enter Week 14’s finale with the NFL’s second-worst record, coming in ahead of only Cincinnati, so head coach Pat Shurmur and his staff are certainly on the hot seat but you know the organization will value the clout a No. 2 overall pick would give them in a pretty loaded draft. Ironically, New York is forced to turn back to Manning for at least a week and he may very well be invested in seeing what he’s got left to potentially remain in the league next season.

He wasn’t dropping any hints in his first public comments since being benched in mid-September, but he didn’t look terrible in losses to the Giants and Bills, finishing with two touchdown passes, 556 passing yards and two interceptions. He didn’t look great either, but could be aided here by Philadelphia’s sieve of a pass defense and Saquon Barkley’s desire to have a bounce-back game in what will be just his second game at the Linc, where he broke off a 50-yard TD run and finished with 130 rushing yards while catching nine passes for 99 yards in putting on a show roughly 60 miles from where he went to high school. Barkley hasn’t had a 100-yard rushing day since Week 2 and hasn’t looked much like himself since suffering his own high ankle sprain. If he can get back to his usual form, New York would certainly have a puncher’s chance here since the Eagles have been solid against the run and will likely stack the box to dare Manning to beat them.

Philadelphia is just 3-3 at home this season and have only covered in two of its wins. It is 2-1 SU and has only covered once when favored by over a touchdown and are 1-5 ATS in that situation dating back to December of their Super Bowl season when they narrowly beat the Giants 34-29 as a 7.5-point ‘chalk.’ New York is just 1-5 on the road this season but has covered in half of those contests. It hasn’t won in Philly since a 15-7 upset on the strength of five field goals as the Eagles got shut down under Chip Kelly’s watch back in 2013. Matt Barkley and Michael Vick split time at QB.

TOTAL TALK

After watching the ‘under’ go 8-2 in the first 10 games played on Monday Night Football this season, the ‘over’ has cashed in four of the last five. Despite that trend, oddsmakers have dropped their opening number of 47 on this total down to 45 as of Monday morning and that could be attributed to weather, since rain and wind are expected to play a factor.

Chris David provided his thoughts on the total between the NFC East foes.

“Making a case for either side in this game is a tough argument since neither team is in great form and the total isn’t easy either. I’ve cashed a couple tickets riding the Giants ‘over’ recently and playing their opponent’s Team Total Over, just last week with Green Bay connecting,” David said. “No matter who is at QB for the Giants, the New York defense remains a mess and if you bring your ‘A’ game, any team will crack 20 points on that unit and the good attacks will post 30-plus points.

“Philadelphia’s offense has gone 1-2 in primetime games this season and those outcomes summed up the year for the Birds. A tough 24-20 loss at Atlanta in Week 2 could’ve gone either way, while a TNF victory (34-27) at Lambeau Field in Week 4 over the Packers was very impressive.”

Favorites have dominated on MNF (13-1 SU, 10-4 ATS) in 2019 and when you dig deeper into those numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 5-2 in seven games where the home favorite won. Getting blasted 37-10 at Dallas in Week 7 was just as embarrassing for the Eagles as last week’s loss in Miami. All those games were on the road. This one is at home, where Philadelphia’s defense shines.

“In their last four games at the Linc, the defense has allowed 13.5 PPG and the ‘under’ has connected easily in each game,” said David. “Even though the ‘over’ is on a 6-1 run in this series, the best unit on the field in this game is the Eagles defense and I expect that group to excel. For those listening to the ”VI Bet and Collect” podcast and my weekly total segment, you’re aware that I lean to seasonal trends. I’ll back that trend again with the game ‘under’ (45) and I believe the New York Giants Team Total Under (19) is worth a look as well.”

LINE MOVEMENT

New York Giants
Projected season win total: 7 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC East (pre-Week 1/current): 5/1 to OFF
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 15/1 to OFF
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 30/1 to OFF

Philadelphia Eagles
Projected season win total: 10.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win NFC East (pre-Week 1/current): 5/7 to 9/5
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 7/1 to 30/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 14/1 to 60/1

INJURY CONCERNS

The Giants expected to have Engram back earlier in the week but ruled him out as precaution, so a return may come in Week 15. There was better news on WR Golden Tate, who cleared concussion protocol and will be taking the field alongside Manning for the first time since he was suspended for the first few games of the season. Rhett Ellison, typically the No. 2 tight end, will sit with a concussion, so rookie Kaden Smith and veteran Scott Simonson will get the snaps at that position. Safety Jabrill Peppers, one of the key assets acquired from Cleveland in the Odell Beckham, Jr. trade, has been placed on IR. Julian Love, Michael Thomas and Grant Haley will line up at safety for New York’s beleaguered defense. Corner Corey Ballantine will also sit due to a concussion.

Tackle Lane Johnson didn’t practice on Saturday but will play, so the Eagles should have their offensive line in place. RB Jordan Howard is expected to remain out with a shoulder ailment, leaving the running game in the hands of rookie Miles Sanders and recently signed veteran Jay Ajayi. Another familiar face who returned due to attrition, Jordan Matthews, could join speedy Greg Ward, Jr. in seeing more snaps if Nelson Agholor (knee) isn’t able to get loose pre-game. Philadelphia’s defense will be without LB Kamu Grugier-Hill due to a concussion and list DE Derek Barnett as a game-time decision after he injured his ankle in last week’s loss in Miami. Second-year DE Josh Sweat would see increased reps if Barnett can’t go.

RECENT MEETINGS

(Eagles 9-1 SU, 5-5 ATS last 10, OVER 7-3)
11/25/18 Eagles 25-22 vs. Giants (NYG +4.5, 49)
10/11/18 Eagles 34-13 at Giants (PHI -1.5, 45)
12/17/17 Eagles 34-29 at Giants (NYG +7.5, 40.5)
9/24/17 Eagles 27-24 vs. Giants (NYG +5, 43)
12/22/16 Eagles 24-19 vs. Giants (PHI -1.5, 42.5)
11/6/16 Giants 28-23 vs. Eagles (NYG -3, 42.5)
1/3/16 Eagles 35-30 at Giants (PHI +5, 51)
10/19/15 Eagles 27-7 vs. Giants (PHI -5, 49.5)
12/28/14 Eagles 34-26 at Giants (PK’em, 52)
10/12/14 Eagles 27-0 vs. Giants (PHI -1.5, 51)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 15 currently has the Eagles as a 6-point road favorite at the Redskins with the total set at 40.5. Believe it or not, the Giants are a 3.5-point home favorite with the Dolphins coming back to Met Life Stadium after Sunday’s narrow loss to the Jets. The total is set a 47.5.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Top six picks for Week 14 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Bills (747) +5.5- L

5) Saints (787) -2.5- L

4) Chiefs (803) +3- W

3) 49ers (809) +2.5- W

2) Bengals (895) +8.5- W

1) Rams (899) even- W

2019 record: 45-36-3


**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….

49ers 48, Saints 46:
— 49ers’ first five drives: 22 plays, 296 yards, four TD’s.
— Niners are 12-7 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog, 5-0 TY.
— 49ers drove 63 yards in seven plays, kicked GW 30-yard GW FG at the gun.

— Saints’ first four drives: 32 plays, 240 yards, four TD’s.
— Game went over the total in the 2nd quarter.
— Saints are 10-15 ATS in last 25 games as a home favorite, 2-4 TY.

Broncos 38, Texans 24:
— Broncos ran 63 plays; only eight were on 3rd down.
— Rookie QB Lock was 22-27/309 passing, with three TD’s.
— Broncos are now 5-4 in last nine games, after an 0-4 start.

— Texans beat New England LW; gambling is hard.
— Houston is 7-12 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite, 1-5 TY
— Denver led 31-3 at halftime; this score makes no sense..

Ravens 24, Bills 17:
— Lamar Jackson is now 17-3 as an NFL starter,
— Baltimore won its last nine games, covering six of last seven.
— Both teams went well under their rushing averages (118-104, Balt).

— Buffalo averaged only 2.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Teams had a combined 42 net passing yards in first half.
— Teams combined to convert only 7-28 third down plays.

Packers 20, Redskins 15:
— Redskins’ first four drives: 16 plays, 32 yards, 2 first downs, 0 points.
— Redskins’ last six drives: 44 plays, 246 yards, 16 first downs, 15 points.
— Washington is 15-10 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog, 4-2 TY.

— Green Bay is 24-15-2 ATS in last 41 games as a home favorite, 4-3 TY
— Four of Packers’ last five games stayed under the total.
— Green Bay had 12-yard advantage in field position.

Browns 27, Bengals 19:
— Cincy outgained Browns 451-333, running 20 more plays than Cleveland.
— Bengals scored one TD, three FG’s on five trips to red zone.
— Under is 6-1-1 in Cincinnati’s last eight games

— Cleveland won four of its last five games.
— Browns had six plays of 20+ yards; four of them came on 3rd down.
— Cleveland’s first TD came on a pick-6 when they trailed 3-0.

Falcons 40, Panthers 20:
— Guess it wasn’t Ron Rivera’s fault.
— Carolina turned ball over four times (-4), converted 3-10 on 3rd down.
— Panthers lost field position battle by 18 yards.

— Ryan broke the game open with a 93-yard TD pass to Zaccheaus in 3rd quarter, making score 27-10.
— Falcons in 2nd half: 6 drives: 30 plays, 207 yards, three TD’s, two FG’s.
— Koo kicked four FG’s, recovered a fumble on a kickoff.

Vikings 20, Lions 7:
— Predictable result for rookie QB making first NFL road start.
— Detroit lost its sixth game in a row.
— Under Patricia, Lions are 6-4-1 ATS as a road underdog, 2-2-1 TY.

— Vikings sacked Blough five times, held Detroit to 3.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Minnesota converted 23 of last 40 third down plays.
— Under Zimmer, Vikings are 25-9-2 ATS as a home favorite, 3-2-1 TY.

Jets 22, Dolphins 21:
— Miami covered seven of its last nine games.
— Dolphins had ball ten times, kicked seven FG’s, missed an 8th try.
— 15 points on six trips to the red zone is no bueno.

— Ficken kicked a 44-yard FG at the gun for the win.
— Darnold drove Jets 51-49 yards for FG’s on Jets’ last two drives.
— Jets won four of last five games overall.

Buccaneers 38, Colts 35:
— Colts lost five of last six games after a 5-2 start.
— All six Indy road games have been decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Not too many NFL teams lose with a +3 turnover ratio.

— Wnston threw for 456 yards, four TD’s, three INT’s.
— Buccaneers have turned ball over 32 times in 13 games (-10).
— This game was over the total at halftime; over is 10-3 in Bucs’ games.

Chargers 45, Jaguars 10:
— Chargers had ball nine times, scored six touchdowns.
— LA averaged 11.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Chargers ran 58 plays, only 8 of them on third down.

— Jaguars lost last five games, allowing 34.8 ppg, with all five losses by 17+ points.
— It is fair to say that Jacksonville has packed it in for the season.
— Jaguars lost for 7th time in last eight meetings with Chargers.

Chiefs 23, Patriots 16:
— Chiefs won four of last five games, clinch AFC West title.
— Under Reid, Kansas City is 15-8 ATS as a road underdog
— Penalty yards: Chiefs 136, Patriots 25

— Patriots lost 2nd game in row, converting 2-12 on third down.
— New England is #2-seed in AFC; they’re 0-3 vs #1-3-4 seeds.
— Under is 9-4 in Patriot games this season.

Steelers 23, Cardinals 17:
— Steelers won seven of last eight games after a 1-4 start.
— Pittsburgh is 3-0 with 3rd-string QB Hodges starting.
— Under is 9-2 in Steelers’ last ten games.

— Arizona lost its last six games, but covered six of last nine.
— Cardinals scored only 10 points in three trips to red zone.
— Total yardage was 275-236 Steelers; only five plays of 20+ yards.

Titans 42, Raiders 21:
— Tennessee won six of its last seven games after a 2-4 start.
— Titans converted 8-11 third down plays, gained 552 yards on 59 plays.
— Tannehill averaged 14.5 yards/pass attempt— his resurgence is one of the big stories in the league this season.

— Raiders in first half: 4 drives: 29 plays, 194 yards, 12 first downs, 21 points.
— Raiders in second half: 6 drives: 31 plays, 163 yards, 10 first downs, 0 points.
— Oakland gave up a defensive TD for third week in a row.

Rams 28, Seahawks 12:
— This was Seattle’s first road loss this season.
— Seahawks’ only TD scored n a pick-6 early in third quarter.
— 49ers move back on top of NFC West standings.

— Rams outgained Seattle 455-308; their best performance in long time.
— Seven of Rams’ last eight games went under the total.
— Gurley/Higbee/Woods are first trio of teammates to all gain 100+ yards from scrimmage in consecutive weeks since the 2000 Vikings.