NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (Fri., Dec. 6 - Sat., Dec. 7)

[Udog]

PAC-12 TOTAL PLUMMETING

It surprised many bettors to see the total for Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game between Utah and Oregon open above 50 – and it didn't take long for market correction to take hold. The number has dipped from an open of 51 all the way down to 46, largely due to the defensive prowess of both teams coming into their title game matchup and some inclement weather. Utah comes in ranked third in the country in total defense (241.6 yards per game allowed) while allowing 20+ points just twice all season. Oregon has been no slouch itself, ranked 24th in FBS in total defense (331.3) while racking up more interceptions (17) than passing touchdowns against (15).

While this one might not be as devoid of offense as last year's Pac-12 championship game – a 10-3 Washington win over Utah – it should still see defense prevail. Even at five points lower than the open, we're leaning toward the Under.


RED ALERT FOR REDHAWKS

The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks are unlikely participants in Saturday's MAC title game – and they could have trouble doing much on offense against the favored Central Michigan Chippewas. While the RedHawks favor the ground attack (59.2 percent of their offensive play calls were runs), they averaged a minuscule 3.6 YPC vs. FBS teams. And that's where the Chippewas excel defensively, having allowed the second-fewest rush yards in the conference (while ranking 22nd overall). Miami (Ohio) completed just over 52 percent of its pass attempts while also ranking near the bottom in sack rate and interception rate.

Combine the RedHawks' offensive struggles with the fact that they won't have home field in this one (they're just 2-5 SU in away games entering Saturday's encounter at Ford Field in Detroit) and we're big fans of CMU against the spread.


DOUBLE PLAY

The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns have a tall task ahead of them – but their recent performance suggests they have a shot as they visit the Appalachian State Mountaineers in Saturday's Sun Belt Conference Championship. The Ragin' Cajuns are roughly a one-touchdown underdog and have lost three meetings with the Mountaineers over the past two seasons. But Louisiana comes in having won six consecutive games since its most recent loss to App State, going 4-2 ATS in the process. And the defense has been the catalyst over that stretch, with ULL having cashed the Under in six of its past seven overall.

If you're angling toward the upset here, you might as well go all the way in and combine it with the U56.5 play (the teams have come in under 50 points in three straight meetings) for a +400 payout.


WASN’T THAT A PARTY!

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and Boise State Broncos have already put on quite a show this season – and football fans will undoubtedly be hoping for a repeat as the teams face off in Saturday's Mountain West Championship Game. The teams combined for a whopping 96 points in their earlier meeting – which is no surprise given that BSU and Hawaii rank 1-2, respectively, in the conference in points per game. And Boise State has been particularly prolific in their recent meetings, having put up at least 42 points in each of the previous six meetings (with six 50+-point performances).

The Broncos might not get to the 50-point plateau in this one, but with how prolific these offenses are, it's mildly surprising to see the total "only" in the mid-60s. We're leaning toward the Over here.

[Udog]

STRIKE FIRST, STRIKE HARD

When it comes to kicking off the scoring, the Oklahoma Sooners have come correct as they prepare to face the Baylor Bears in Saturday's Big 12 title game at AT&T Stadium. The Jalen Hurts-led offense has been a dynamo in the opening stages of games this season, scoring first in 11 of 12 regular-season outings (nine touchdowns, two field goals). But the Bears have been no slouch themselves, having scored the first points eight times in their 12 regular-season games – each time with a touchdown. That jibes with how the teams handled the other three quarters, combining for 126 touchdowns against just 25 field goals.

The 6-way First Score Method prop should be a profitable one, with an Oklahoma TD paying out at +120 and the Baylor TD set at +200. Bettors can't go wrong with either play, though the Sooners present the slightly safer option.


SLOW STARTERS?

The LSU Tigers might be armed with one of the top offenses in the nation, but they might struggle to make early inroads as they square off against the Georgia Bulldogs to decide the SEC championship on Saturday. LSU owned one of the top first-quarter offenses in the country, averaging 11.0 points per game against FBS opponents. But the Bulldogs are no ordinary opponent for Joe Burrow and Co.; they faced three ranked opponents during the regular season – No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 6 Florida and No. 12 Auburn – and kept all three off the scoreboard in the opening quarters of their respective games.

With the Tigers and Bulldogs combining to limit opponents to 4.3 first-quarter points per game, it's hard to see these teams not converting the Under on the first-quarter game total.


ONE-SIDED AFFAIR?

With the utmost respect to Virginia, it will take a minor miracle for the Cavaliers to pull off the upset victory over the defending champion Clemson Tigers in Saturday's ACC title game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. Ignoring completely how dominant the Clemson offense can look when it gets going, Virginia will be forced to air it out against a Tigers pass defense that allowed just six passing touchdowns all season. Opposing quarterbacks completed just 48.3 percent of their pass attempts for the season while averaging a minuscule 126.5 passing yards per game, easily the lowest rate in the country.

With the Cavaliers a long shot to do anything on offense and that Clemson attack sure to keep Virginia's defense on the field, this one could get positively ugly. The 43-or-more Winning Margin option might be an intriguing one here at +500.


WILL THEY OR WON’T THEY?

Just how dominant are the Ohio State Buckeyes? Oddsmakers have set +100 odds on their opponents – the No. 8 team in the nation, no less – to score not even one first-quarter point in Saturday's Big Ten title game. And while the Wisconsin Badgers did come up empty in the opening quarter of their 38-7 loss to Ohio State earlier in the season, they still finished inside the top-40 in first quarter points per game (7.2). And for as dominant as the Buckeyes' defense has been throughout the 2019 campaign, it has surrendered 20 first-quarter points over its previous three games.

Come on ... if Rutgers can score first-quarter points vs. Ohio State, surely the Badgers can, too. Right? We think it's worth a shot at +100 for Wisconsin to finish Over 0.5 points in the opening 15 minutes.

[Udog]

Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Baylor at Oklahoma (-9/65), 12 p.m. ET, ABC: Following Utah's unexpected loss in the Pac-12 championship, we get Championship Saturday off with a bang since the winner of this one will feel really good about their chances of being ranked among the CFP's top four to secure a spot in the national semifinals. The Bears will need a lot more help than a Sooners team that didn't skate at the beginning of the season against the likes of Stephen F. Austin, UT-San Antonio and Rice.

Despite their non-ambitious schedule, the Bears would be top-four at the moment had they not blown a 25-point lead three weeks ago when they hosted the Sooners in a 34-31 game that will be constantly referenced throughout this one. Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts threw four TD passes but turned the ball over three times, clearly missing the presence of star WR CeeDee Lamb. One of the country's top receiving prospects, Lamb was unavailable for that game but is returning here.With no weather variables in play at Arlington's AT&T Stadium, the question simply becomes whether you believe the Bears team that torched Oklahoma's suspect defense can re-emerge with QB Charlie Brewer finding Denzel Mims or a team that couldn't get out of its own way in the second half won't give themselves a chance.

Oklahoma is looking to become the first "Power-5" team to win five consecutive conference titles since Alabama accomplished the feat from 1971-75. Kennedy Brooks is averaging a Big 12-best 7.2 yards per carry, which should lighten Hurts' load and keep a Bears defense featuring the conference's defensive player of the year, James Lynch, from getting to Hurts.The line has come down to 8.5 at Caesars and a total that opened at 62 has been bet to 65.

Miami, Ohio at Central Michigan (-6.5/54.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2: Jim McElwain has done an amazing job in Mount Pleasant, turning a 1-11 football team into a division champion in his first season back in coaching after flaming out at Florida. He’ll be looking to become the first CMU head coach since Butch Jones to win the conference in his first season and may find himself with a bigger gig given the job he’s done building a team with excellent schemes and really solid development, taking a team picked to finish last to their first conference title appearance since ’09.

Miami got hot following its 76-5 loss to Ohio State and has proven resilient in riding its defense. QB Brett Gabbert, younger brother of former NFL QB Blaine Gabbert, has had some nice moments as a first-year starter for the Redhawks, but the offense ranked next-to-last in the MAC in total yardage. Tennessee transfer Quinten Dormady has been excellent for the Chippewas in running McElwain’s system and can beat you with his legs as well. The Chips have gone 8-1-1 ATS over their last 10 games while the ‘under’ has hit in four of the past five games involving Miami, so identities here are well-established. CMU opened at 4.5-point favorite but that figure has been bet up to a 6.5. The total opened at 53 and moved to 54.5. This game will be played inside Ford Field, so the icy Detroit weather will only be a factor when the teams get out of bed in the morning and commute.

Louisiana at Appalachian State (-6.5/58), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Mountaineers will look to pick up their second straight title and benefit from hosting this contest. Even though Ragin’ Cajuns fans travel well, this is a tough ask since Appalachian State isn’t the easiest place to get to. Potentially brutal weather will take it easy on both teams since temperatures will creep into the 40s and neither wind, snow or rain will be a factor. There is a revenge angle in place since Louisiana lost this exact same matchup 30-19 last season as a 17-point underdog. They fell in this year’s regular-season matchup 17-7 despite being favored at home on Oct. 9 in what was by far their least productive offensive showing of the season. Consider that their second-lowest scoring output was the 28 points they managed in a season-opening loss to Mississippi State and you can imagine the ‘Cajuns will try to be aggressive early, which makes the first-half ‘over’ attractive.

The ‘under’ is on a 6-1 run in Louisiana-Lafayette games despite it averaging 39.5 points per game on its six-game winning streak after losing at home to the Mountaineers. Appalachian State would be perfect if not for a 24-21 setback at home on Halloween night against 14-point underdog Georgia Southern. The Eagles controlled that game’s tempo and ran the ball effectively, which is what Louisiana will look to accomplish behind NFL-caliber back Trey Ragas, who forms a three-pronged attack alongside Elijah Mitchell and Raymond Calais in what is the nation’s sixth-best rushing attack. Levi Lewis has only been picked off three times but does have issues getting the ball downfield. Counterpart Zac Thomas has been the Sun Belt’s top quarterback for the last two seasons and leans on RB Darrynton Evans, who won conference player of the year honors after a 20-touchdown season. Appalachian State has given up 15 or fewer points in six of the last eight games, but their top non-conference wins – Charlotte and UNC – both came in shootouts.

Virginia at Clemson (-29/55.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC: The Tigers don’t need style points to secure their spot in the CFP final four, but I can’t imagine losing outright would allow them to maintain their spot in the playoff since the ACC has been such a dumpster fire this season. The Cavaliers rely heavily on QB Bryce Perkins, who has thrown it or run it on 78 percent of his team’s possessions. That makes it easy to game plan against the ‘Hoos, who didn’t have to play Clemson this season but lost at Notre Dame in addition to league losses at Miami and Louisville.

The Tigers have been annoyed by talk of the ACC dragging them down since the defending champs have navigated the only schedule they could play, overcoming their obstacles rather handily with the exception of a 21-20 win at North Carolina back in late September. Although they’ve deflected all talk about style points over the past few months, every win they’ve had since has come by over 31 points, including their higher-profile wins over FSU, Louisville and Wake Forest. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS over their last seven games, giving up 14 or fewer points each time out while scoring at least 45 in every contest except last week’s 38-3 rout at South Carolina. QB Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 22 touchdowns and been picked off just three times since the near-upset against the Tar Heels. Per the AP, Perkins is among three players this year with at least 2,900 passing yards and 600 rushing yards, joining Oklahoma’s Hurts and Louisiana-Monroe’s Caleb Evans. Perkins leads the ACC in total offense with 3,636 yards. He’ll be the top dual-threat QB Clemson has seen since a 24-10 loss to Texas A&M in which the Tigers took advantage of Kellen Mond. Temperatures in Charlotte will be in the 40s.

[Udog]

College Playoff Betting Notes

LSU made College Football Playoff Favorite

The final 2019 College Football Playoff rankings were announced on Sunday Dec. 8 at 12:15 p.m. ET and the semifinal matchups have been set for Saturday, Dec. 28, 2019.

Fiesta Bowl: (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Clemson
Peach Bowl: (1) LSU vs. (4) Oklahoma

LSU moved past Ohio State for the No. 1 position in the CFP, leaving the Buckeyes in the second slot. Rounding out the four-team field are Clemson at No. 3 and Oklahoma at No. 4.

College Football Playoff Betting History

Ed Orgeron and the LSU Tigers captured the SEC Championship with a dominating 37-10 win over Georgia and finished the season with a 13-0 record. This is the first CFP appearance for LSU.

Clemson and Ohio State also finished with 13-0 records, which included conference championship victories in the ACC and Big Ten respectively. This will be the fifth straight trip to the College Football Playoff for the Tigers, while Ohio State is making its third appearance and first since the 2016-17 Playoff.

Oklahoma has lost in the semifinals each of the last two seasons, and the defense gave up a combined 99 points in those setbacks. This will be their third straight appearance and fourth overall.

At the ends of the 2018-19 season, oddsmakers at the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook released Future Odds to win the 2020 College Football Championship on Jan. 7, 2019.

School (Open) Current

LSU Tigers (50/1) 7/5
Clemson Tigers (7/2) 2/1
Ohio State Buckeyes (10/1) 3/1
Oklahoma Sooners (15/1) 16/1

LSU opened as a 50/1 betting choice to capture the title and now that the field has shrunk to four, the Tigers are the 7/5 favorites (Bet $100 to win $140).

The defending champion Clemson Tigers were a 7/2 choice back in January to repeat and they’re now listed at 2/1 odds.

Betcha Didn't Know

The No. 1 seed, which would be LSU, has never won the College Football Playoff National Championship. The No. 3 seed is also winless and they have the worst overall record among the four seeds, going 1-4 in the first five playoffs since 2014.

The No. 2 seed has captured the title three times, which could have you leaning to Ohio State.

And, for those looking at the long shot ticket this season with Oklahoma. Make a note the No. 4 seed has gone 2-3 in semifinal matchups but the lowest seed has carried the momentum to the title game, producing a 2-0 record.


No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Oklahoma

Matchup: Peach Bowl - History
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET

Opening Betting Odds

The SuperBook in Las Vegas opened LSU as a 9 ½-point favorite and the number was quickly bet up to -12. Some betting shops have gone to 12 ½ while the Circa in Las Vegas was holding the Tigers at -11.

The total (over/under) was sent out at 79 ½ and early ‘under’ wagers dropped the number to 76 ½. A few global books, including DraftKings, are holding 75 ½.

Expert Thoughts

Tony Mejia provided his early betting observations on the Peach Bowl.

"This number looked awfully low to me even with the Sooners coming in with a healthy CeeDee Lamb and an experienced Jalen Hurts leading the charge in Atlanta. Likely Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow is playing at an extremely high level and figures to be able to move the ball at will down the field against the most vulnerable of the defenses to land a national semifinal spot. Oklahoma struggled to stop the run against Kansas State and surrendered huge plays downfield to both of Baylor’s quarterbacks in their narrow wins, so I’d expect this number to increase Dec. 28 approaches. The total being set at 77 is a slap in the face to a Tigers defense that will have weeks to fix issues that allowed elusive quarterbacks to make plays with their feet late in the season."

How They Got Here

LSU finished the season with 13-0 straight up and 8-4-1 against the spread record, which was topped off with a 37-10 win over Georgia in the SEC Championship as seven-point favorites.

The Tigers went 7-0 in Baton Rouge and 6-0 as visitors.

LSU was favored in 12 of 13 games this season and listed as a double-digit favorite nine times.

Oklahoma is the only team in this year’s CFP field with a blemish, finishing 12-1 overall. The Sooners also come in as the least profitable team of the quartet, producing a 5-8 ATS record.

This will be the first time this season that Oklahoma is listed as an underdog.

The Sooners were listed as double-digit underdogs last season in the College Playoff to Alabama (-14 ½) and the Crimson Tide ran past the Sooners 45-34 in the semifinal played at the Orange Bowl.

Oklahoma watched the ‘under’ go 8-5 and the low side closed the season with four consecutive winning tickets. LSU was 8-5 to the ‘over’ and that includes a 4-2 mark away from home.

Head-to-Head Matchups

These teams haven’t met since 2004 when they squared off in the Sugar Bowl, which was also the BCS National Championship Game. The Tigers captured a 21-14 win over the Sooners, led by then head coach Nick Saban.

College Playoff & Bowl Betting History

Going back to 2010, LSU has produced a 5-5 SU and 4-5-1 ATS mark in its last 10 postseason appearances.

The Tigers have won three of their last four bowl games and that includes a 2-1 mark under Ed Orgeron as head coach.

Oklahoma is also just 5-5 both SU and ATS in last 10 playoff or bowl games.

Three of those losses came in the College Football Playoff.


No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson

Matchup: Fiesta Bowl - History
Venue: State Farm Stadium
Location: Glendale, Arizona
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

Opening Betting Odds

The SuperBook opened Ohio State -1 and the number has flip-flopped on this matchup. Clemson is currently -2 ½ in Las Vegas and a few books are holding the Tigers -1.

The total (over/under) opened 61 ½ and was nudged up to 62 ½. The Circa opened a tad higher at 63 and that number has held steady at the downtown Las Vegas shop.

Expert Thoughts

Tony Mejia provided his early betting observations on the Fiesta Bowl.

"The Buckeyes impressively rallied past Wisconsin but lost any hope of avoiding this matchup by falling behind in the manner they did to 16.5-point underdog. A major point of contention in this matchup is trusting the Tigers against what will be by far their toughest test of the season, but there’s no question that the Tigers are also the best team the Buckeyes have seen themselves. QB Justin Fields should be sufficiently healed from having to play with a brace over the past few weeks but Trevor Lawrence is one of the few guys you would rather have under center if given your choice in this matchup. The total is in the low 60s but still quite manageable given the firepower on both sides of the ball and no weather to worry about indoors in Glendale."

How They Got Here

Clemson went 13-0 straight up and 10-3 against the spread. The school went 8-0 at home and 5-0 outside of Death Valley, which included a 62-17 win over Virginia in the ACC Championship.

The Tigers were double-digit favorites in all 13 of their games and 12 of the outcomes were decided by double digits.

The only score for Clemson came in Week 5 when the Tigers escaped Chapel Hill with a 21-20 win over North Carolina.

Total bettors saw the ‘under’ go 7-6 for the Tigers.

Ohio State also went 13-0 SU and it produced a solid 9-4 ATS record for bettors. Similar to Clemson, the Buckeyes went 8-0 at home and 5-0 in games played outside of Columbus.

The Buckeyes failed to cover in three of their final four games, which included an ATS loss in their 34-21 comeback win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship as 17-point favorites.

This will be the first time this season that Ohio State is listed as an underdog.

Bettors saw Ohio State’s total results produce a stalemate (6-6-1) in its 13 games.

Head-to-Head Matchups

These schools met in 2016 College Football Playoffs and Clemson stifled Ohio State 31-0 as a one-point underdog. Coincidentally, the game was played at the same venue of this matchup – the Fiesta Bowl. The ‘under’ (56 ½) connected.

Clemson also defeated Ohio State 40-35 in the 2014 Orange Bowl and the Tigers were listed as short underdogs (+2 ½) in that game as well. The ‘over’ (71 ½) was on a nice pace and never in doubt.

College Playoff & Bowl Betting History

Clemson has gone 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 postseason games, both losses coming to Alabama in the College Football Playoff.

Including those two setbacks, the Tigers have gone 5-2 overall in the College Football Playoff.

Ohio State has gone 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in its last 10 postseason games while the ‘under’ is 7-3 during this span.

The Buckeyes have gone 2-1 both SU and ATS in the College Football Playoff, both victories coming in the 2014-15 edition when they captured the national championship. OSU defeated Alabama in the semifinal before blasting Oregon on the title game.