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**Udog** · 12-02-2019, 08:12 PM

Championship Notes

Week 15 of the 2019 College Football season will be highlighted with 10 championship games.

The action starts Friday with the Pac-12 title game before finishing on Saturday with nine more championships.

Check out the matchups, odds and betting notes on all of the title games below.

(SU - Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread)

Opening Odds per Circa Las Vegas

Pac 12 Championship

Utah (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) vs. Oregon (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Date: Friday, Dec. 6 (FOX, 8:00 p.m.)
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, California
Opening Odds: Utah -6.5, Total 50.5

Betting Notes and Trends

-- Oregon and Utah didn’t meet in this year’s regular season, which was rare.

-- In the previous six consecutive years, Oregon has gone 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS against Utah.

-- However, the Utes captured a 32-25 win over the Ducks in the 2018 campaign. The ‘over’ has gone 5-1 during this span.

-- Utah has posted a 4-1 record both SU and ATS on the road, with the lone loss coming to USC (30-23) back in Week 4. Since that win, the Utes closed the season with eight straight wins and covers. -- Oregon went 3-2 both SU and ATS on the road, both losses coming by a combined nine points.

-- The Pac-12 North has gone 7-1 in the first eight Pac-12 title games, which includes Utah losing 10-3 to Washington last season. This was the only conference championship appearance for the Utes.

-- Oregon has earned two trips to the Pac-12 title game, the last visit in 2014. The Ducks have gone 2-0 both SU and ATS in those games and the offense scored 51 and 49 points.

-- The ‘over/under’ has gone 4-4 in the last eight title games but we haven’t seen back-to-back ‘under’ tickets and last year’s combined 13 points between the Utes and Huskies was an easy low side winner.

Preseason Future Odds to win the Pac-12

Utah 7/4
Oregon 13/4

MAC Championship

Miami (Ohio) (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) vs. Central Michigan (8-4 SU, 9-2-1 ATS)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 7 (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m.)
Venue: Ford Field
Location: Detroit, Michigan
Opening Odds: Central Michigan -6, Total 53

Betting Notes and Trends

-- These teams haven't met since the 2017 regular season and Miami (Ohio) defeated Central Michigan 31-14 as short road underdogs (+1.5).

-- The Redhawks struggled away from home this season, going 2-5 both SU and ATS but three of the losses were non-conference setbacks and to some heavyweight contenders in Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State.

-- The Chippewas weren't much better, producing a 2-4 mark as visitors but they turned a profit (3-2-1 ATS) for bettors.

-- Central Michigan was one of the best 'over' teams in college football, going 9-3 to the high side. The offense averaged 32.8 PPG, ranked third in the MAC.

-- Saturday's matchup will be the 23rd MAC Championship.

-- Underdogs have covered three straight in the MAC title game and the 'over' has gone 2-1 in those contests.

-- Miami (Ohio) captured the MAC title twice, winning in 2010 and 2003.

-- Central Michigan has made three appearances in the MAC Championship and the school has gone 3-0, winning every game by double digits. For bettors, the Chippewas went 2-1 ATS in those games while the 'under' produced a 3-0 mark.

Preseason Future Odds to win the MAC

Miami-Ohio 20/1
Central Michigan 80/1

Sun Belt Championship

Louisiana-Lafayette (9-2 SU, 9-2 ATS) at Applachian State (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 7 (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
Venue: Kidd Brewer Stadium
Location: Boone, North Carolina
Opening Odds: Appalachian State -6, Total 56.5

Betting Notes and Trends

-- This is the second-ever Sun Belt championship game as Appalachian State downed Louisiana-Lafayette, 30-19 last December in Boone. However, the Ragin' Cajuns covered as hefty 17.5-point underdogs.

-- Appalachian State defeated ULL earlier this season in Lafayette, 17-7 as 1.5-point road underdogs to improve to 7-0 against the Cajuns since joining the Sun Belt in 2014.

-- ULL has won five consecutive games since losing to the Mountaineers in October, while covering four times in this span.

-- The Cajuns have covered in their two opportunities as an underdog this season, including in a 20-point road victory at Ohio as three-point 'dogs.

-- Three of the four ATS losses for App State this season came when laying 23 points or more, while the Mountaineers put together a 3-3 ATS mark at home.

-- From a totals standpoint, App State began the season on a 3-1 'over' run before cashing the 'under' in six of the final eight games.

Preseason Future Odds to win the Big 12

Appalachian State 5/7
Louisiana-Lafayette 10/1

Big 12 Championship

Baylor (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. Oklahoma (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 7 (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, Texas
Opening Odds: Oklahoma -10, Total 63.5

Betting Notes and Trends

-- The Big 12 title game has been all about Oklahoma, who has captured both championships since the conference rebooted the event.

-- The Sooners covered in both 2017 and 2018 and the ‘under’ connected in both contests.

-- Including the recent victories, Oklahoma has appeared in ten title games and it has produced an 8-2 record.

-- This will be Baylor’s first appearance to the Big 12 title game.

-- The two schools met recently in Week 12 and Oklahoma rallied from a 31-10 halftime deficit to defeat Baylor 34-31. The Sooners failed to cover as 10 ½-point road favorites.

-- Including this win, Oklahoma has won five straight against Baylor while going 3-2 ATS.

-- That setback was the only loss of the season for the Bears, who went a perfect 5-0 outside of Waco.

-- Oklahoma produced a 5-1 road mark but it burned bettors with a 2-4 ATS record in those games.

Preseason Future Odds to win the Big 12

Baylor 20/1
Oklahoma 4/7

Conference USA Championship

UAB (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) at Florida Atlantic (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 7 (CBSSN, 1:30 p.m.)
Venue: FAU Stadium
Location: Boca Raton, Florida
Opening Odds: Florida Atlantic -7, Total 48.5

Betting Notes and Trends

-- UAB will be looking to become just the third CUSA school to win back-to-back title games. The Blazers defeated Middle Tennessee 27-25 last season as 1 ½-point road underdogs, which was the school’s first championship.

-- Prior to that win, the home team in this title game had won six straight and 10 of the previous 13 championships.

-- Florida Atlantic has been designated as the host for this championship and it went 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS at home this season.

-- Two of the losses for the Owls came against quality non-conference opponents in Ohio State (45-21) and Central Florida (48-14). Fun fact – FAU was just one of three schools to cover against the Buckeyes this season.

-- Alabama-Birmingham had a lot of success at home (6-0) than on the road (3-3) and the offense was the main factor. In three wins, UAB averaged 30 PPG while the unit mustered up 7.3 PPG in their losses.

-- The UAB defense was ranked first in CUSA in scoring and 18th nationally, allowing just 18.5 points per game. That effort

-- Florida Atlantic and UAB haven’t met since the 2014 regular season and the Blazers captured a 31-28 decision over the Owls.

-- We certainly have different faces on these squads but this series has been known to see points and that’s helped the ‘over’ cash in the last six encounters between the pair.

Preseason Future Odds to win the CUSA
Florida Atlantic 9/2
UAB 8/1

American Athletic Championship

Cincinnati (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) at Memphis (11-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 7 (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
Venue: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Location: Memphis, Tennessee
Opening Odds: Memphis -10, Total 58.5

Betting Notes and Trends

-- This will be the fifth postseason title game for the American Athletic Conference and we’ve seen the host go 3-1 in the first four matchups.

-- Memphis has reached the final each of the last two seasons but it came up short twice in losses to Central Florida from Orlando.

-- Cincinnati will be making its first appearance in the championship.

-- These teams just met last Friday on Nov. 29 and Memphis captured a 34-24 win over Cincinnati but it failed to cover as 14-point home favorites. The victory designated the Tigers as hosts for this week’s game.

-- Including that win, the Tigers have won four straight games in this series. They’ve gone 2-2 ATS while the ‘under’ has produced a 3-1 mark during this span.

-- Memphis is just one of 10 FBS schools to win 11 or more games in the regular season. The Tigers were perfect at home, going 6-0 SU and 3-2-1 ATS.

-- The Tigers watched the ‘over’ go 8-4 but they closed the season with back-to-back ‘under’ tickets.

-- Cincinnati was also perfect at home (6-0) and a respectable 4-2 on the road. The aforementioned loss to the Tigers was one of the road setbacks and the other came in Week 2 to the top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes, a 42-0 decision.

-- The Bearcats were one of the best ‘under’ teams in the nation, producing a 9-3 mark to the low side. All three of the ‘over’ tickets occurred outside Cincinnati.

Preseason Future Odds to win the AAC
Cincinnati 4/1
Memphis 3/1

SEC Championship

Georgia (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. LSU (12-0 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 7 (CBS, 4:00 p.m.)
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Opening Odds: LSU -6, Total 56.5

Betting Notes and Trends

-- The Bulldogs and Tigers are meeting in the SEC championship for the first time since 2011. LSU routed Georgia, 42-10 as 12.5-point favorites as that was the last time the Tigers played for and won the SEC Championship.

-- Georgia is playing for the SEC title for the third consecutive season. The Bulldogs last won in 2017 in a 28-7 blowout of Auburn, while falling short against Alabama last season, 35-28 as 11.5-point underdogs.

-- UGA allowed 20 points or fewer in all 12 games this season, while cashing the 'under' nine times. Georgia is currently on a 4-1 ATS run, including wins away from Athens against Florida and Auburn.

-- LSU is one of three undefeated teams remaining in the country (Ohio State and Clemson), as the Tigers produced at least 42 points in 10 games.

-- The Tigers posted a 7-4-1 ATS mark as all four ATS defeats came as a double-digit favorite.

-- LSU crushed Georgia in its last matchup in 2018 in Baton Rouge, 36-16 as seven-point underdogs. Heisman Trophy front-runner Joe Burrow rushed for two touchdowns in the win, while Georgia QB Jake Fromm was intercepted twice.

-- In four of five games played away from Baton Rouge, LSU yielded at least 37 points, while the 'over' went 4-1.

Preseason Future Odds to win the SEC
LSU 8/1
Georgia 5/2

Mountain West Championship

Hawaii (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) at Boise State (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 7 (ESPN, 7:45 p.m.)
Venue: Albertsons Stadium
Location: Boise, Idaho
Opening Odds: Boise State -16.5, Total 63.5

Betting Notes and Trends

-- This is the seventh installment of the Mountain West championship as Boise State is making its fourth appearance in this game. Meanwhile, Hawaii is playing for its MWC title.

-- The Broncos have captured the MWC championship twice and are playing in their third consecutive conference title game. Boise State edged Fresno State, 17-14 in 2017, but the Broncos fell to the Bulldogs in overtime last season, 19-16.

-- The underdog has covered in each of the past five MWC title games, while the last four affairs have been decided by exactly three points.

-- Boise State's only loss came out of conference to BYU as seven-point road favorites in a 28-25 defeat in October. The Broncos put together an 8-0 SU and 4-3-1 ATS mark within conference action.

-- Hawaii is riding a four-game winning streak after losing three of four games, while the Rainbow Warriors have yielded 52 points in three defeats this season.

-- Boise State knocked off Hawaii, 59-37 as 13-point home favorites in October. The Broncos have won seven consecutive meetings, while covering each of the past six.

-- The Broncos are 15-2 SU and 10-7 ATS in their last 17 games on the famed "Blue Turf" in Boise, while not losing a home game this season.

-- Hawaii posted a 3-2 SU/ATS record on the road this season, but only one victory came against a team owning a winning record (Nevada).

Preseason Future Odds to win the MWC
Boise State 5/6
Hawaii 14/1

ACC Championship

Clemson (12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS) vs. Virginia (9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 7 (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)
Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
Opening Odds: Clemson -29, Total 54.5

Betting Notes and Trends

-- This will be the fifth consecutive appearance for Clemson in the ACC title game.

-- The Tigers have gone 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS and the school is averaging 41.8 PPG in those victories.

-- Including those wins, the Atlantic Division has won eight straight and is 9-5 overall in the ACC Championship.

-- This will be the first title game appearance for the Virginia Cavaliers.

-- Clemson and Virginia haven’t met since the 2013 regular season and the Tigers blasted the Cavaliers 59-10 as 17 ½-point road favorites.

-- The Tigers produced a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS mark on the road this season. The close call came in Week 5 when Clemson barely beat North Carolina 21-20 as 27 ½-point road favorites.

-- Since that game, Clemson closed the season with 6-1 ATS record.

-- The Tigers own the best scoring defense (9.7 PPG) in the country and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 7-5.

-- Virginia closed the season with four straight wins and three of them came at home. The ‘over’ closed on a 4-0 run behind a red-hot offense averaging 41.3 PPG.

-- All three losses by the Cavaliers this season have come on the road and the offense only averaged 16.7 PPG.

Preseason Future Odds to win the ACC
Clemson 1/5
Virginia 16/1

Big 10 Championship

Ohio State (12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS) vs. Wisconsin (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 7 (FOX, 8:00 p.m.)
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
Opening Odds: Ohio State -16, Total 53.5

Betting Notes and Trends

-- This has been a one-sided series with Ohio State winning seven straight and nine of the last 10 meetings against Wisconsin.

-- The Buckeyes have covered eight of the 10 games and that includes this year’s 38-7 win on Oct. 26 as 14 ½-point home favorites.

-- During this span, the pair met in two Big Ten championships and Ohio State posted a 59-0 win in 2014 before a 27-21 victory in the 2017 title game.

-- The Buckeyes have made four appearances in the Big Ten title game and they’ve gone 3-1 both SU and ATS. Ohio State is the only school with three conference titles.

-- The Badgers captured the first two Big Ten titles in 2011 and 2012 but they’ve gone 0-3 both SU and ATS in their last three appearances.

-- Favorites have won and covered the last two championships but underdogs own a 5-2-1 ATS mark in the first eight Big Ten title games. The ‘over’ has gone 6-2.

-- The Buckeyes stepped out of Columbus five times this season and they produced a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS mark while the ‘over’ went 4-1.

-- Wisconsin went 3-2 both SU and ATS on the road, one loss coming to the Buckeyes and the other setback was a stunning 24-23 loss at Illinois as 30 ½-point favorites.

Preseason Future Odds to win the Big 10
Ohio State 2/1
Wisconsin (12/1)

**Udog** · 12-02-2019, 08:12 PM

Hot & Not Report - Title Games
Matt Blunt

Week of December 2nd

We've reached the final month of 2019, and while that means that the playoff race in the NFL is in the stretch drive, it also means the college football season is coming to a close. So after a few weeks of focusing on the NFL, this week it's time to take a look at conference championship weekend and specifically two games that have certain historical trends favoring one particular side.

But before we get to that, last week's piece on the two different runs that were in play for numerous NFL games last week ended up with a positive 5-4 ATS result (eliminating the SF play because both they and Baltimore were coming off outings of 30+ points). Some of the lines listed on the list of plays last week moved with us, and some of them moved against us, but thanks to Buffalo, New Orleans, Miami, Tennessee, and Tampa Bay – who all won SU by the way – had you played all those games you came out ahead.

However, it's on to the collegiate game now, and conference championship weekend is always one of my favorite ones of the year. You've got a NFL-sized betting board which means you can spend more time on each individual game, there are no potential motivational issues to concern yourself with, and you've got winning teams in all the games so the quality of football you can expect to see should be at a more predictable level.

That being said, not one favorite this weekend is laying less than -6.5 points right now, and that is quite telling. At least on paper, the oddsmakers believe these games won't be all that tight, but underdogs do win conference titles every year, so taking the points in some of these games may be rather appealing. And based on recent results in two specific conference championship games, we already have two underdogs to look at.

Who's Hot

Playing ON the team in the Big 10 Championship game with fewer ATS wins on the season is 3-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 3-0-1 ATS the last four years

This year's Big 10 game has the #1 Ohio State Buckeyes currently laying -16.5 against Wisconsin, in a rematch of a 38-7 Ohio State win back at the end of October. That game was a dominant effort from Ohio State from start to finish, and given how dominant the Buckeyes have been all year, there is plenty to like about their chances to win this game and earn their spot in the CFB Playoff.

Ohio State comes into this game with a 9-3 ATS record on the year, but recent history suggests that that's not a great thing for them to cover this big number. Yes, it's only a 3-4 game sample size here, but with Wisconsin sporting a 7-5 ATS record this season, they are in the role that's proved to be a money earner the past three seasons.

In last year's Big 10 title game, Ohio State was just 5-7 ATS when they were laying an identical -16.5 spread against a Northwestern team that was 6-4-2 ATS at the time. It was a mismatch on paper, and proved to be on the field too, as Ohio State ended up with the 45-24 win to cover the number.

It was a similar story in the 2017 and 2016 Big 10 Championship games as well, as a 2017 Ohio State team at 5-7 ATS went on to win SU and ATS against an 8-4 ATS Wisconsin team, while the 2016 Penn State Nittany Lions – who were 8-3-1 ATS – got the SU and ATS win over a 9-2-1 ATS Wisconsin team. And then back in 2015, Michigan State (5-7 ATS) ended up pushing as -3 favorites against a then 7-5 Iowa squad.

So history is on Wisconsin's side to at least keep this game closer then this number may suggest, and if you've read any of my Upset Alert pieces this year, you'll know that I've gone against Ohio State against the number a handful of times this year. The results have not been good overall, so rushing to the window to take these points with Wisconsin is not something I'm doing, as I'm simply putting out this information to let you all make your own decisions.

Overall last year, teams with fewer ATS wins on the year went 6-1 ATS in conference championship games, but that was after they were 1-6 ATS back in 2017 (2017 Ohio State being only winner). I am a big believer in regression to the mean in nearly everything, so I do think we see some of those squads that have performed admirably ATS this season continue to do so, I'm just not sure it happens in the Big 10. Which leads me to...

Who's Not

Playing ON the team with the fewer ATS wins in the Mountain West Championship game is 0-4 ATS the past four years

Given that the Mountain West title has been decided by just three points in each of the past four years, it's not too surprising that opening numbers of +14.5/15 on Hawaii were quickly bought up. The current line sits at Boise State -13.5, and with the Broncos at home on the Smurf Turf for the third straight season in this game, they do have some intrinsic advantages already. Yet, at 6-5-1 ATS this year, it is Boise State who comes into this game with fewer covers then their opponent Hawaii, and while that situation has been great for Big 10 teams, it's the exact opposite in the Mountain West.

Each of the past four years in this conference we've seen the team that has cashed more tickets on the season, cash once again in the title game. It just so happens that they've all been the underdog for this game, and when you get every game decided by just three points, chances are the dog will bring home the ATS victory. The past two years it's been Fresno State who went 1-1 SU in those three point efforts as dogs, and prior to that it was Wyoming and Air Force with three point defeats catching points as well. All four of those years saw the dog come into the game with more ATS wins, as Hawaii does this year at 7-6 ATS.

And given the big picture surrounding this game, a play on Hawaii does seem to make a lot of sense.

For one, Boise's not likely to get that Bowl spot in the New Year's Six as the highest ranked Group of 5 team because chances are it will go to the winner of the AAC Title game between Cincinnati and Memphis. Both teams are ranked right around Boise State right now, and the winner of that game will likely earn that berth as the highest ranked squad. I did say at the top that motivational concerns aren't really prevalent this week, but if there was one, that would be it.

Furthermore, Hawaii's got to be excited to be in their first Mountain West title game, and the program's first crack at a conference crown since sharing the WAC title back in 2010. Their last outright conference title game 12 years ago as 12-1 SU WAC champions, and every school loves to add to their trophy case.

It's also another crack at this Boise State team on the blue turf after suffering a 59-37 loss to the Broncos back in mid-October. That final score was more flattering then how the game went, as it was 52-21 after three quarters, as four turnovers by Hawaii (three fumbles lost and an INT) dug way too big of a hole for them to climb out of. The Rainbow Warriors were right there with Boise State in terms of yards per rush (5.9 for Hawaii vs 5.2 for Boise State) and pass yards per play (6.5 for Hawaii vs 8.5 for Boise State), and had they just been able to protect the ball early on, things could have been much different.

The Warriors have only improved since then – especially on defense – as they ended up going 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) since that Boise State loss, and finished the year with committing a turnover against Army, the first time they hadn't coughed the ball up since playing Nevada the week before the first meeting with Boise State.

Having the Rainbow Warriors playing out in the cold of Boise will definitely be a talking point for those looking to lay it with the Broncos, but Boise State also has some questions at QB if QB Hank Bachmeier decides to give it a go with his wounded shoulder. He's sat out the last three games for Boise State, and while they've generally been fine without him, his reinsertion to the field could bring more disruption to that offense then expected.

Hawaii can put the ball in the end zone with the best of them in the Mountain West, which means a back door cover is probably always in the equation here, and with the early move in the Rainbow Warriors favor, and the recent history of both underdogs and teams with the more ATS wins in the Mountain West title game, it's a move I believe you've got to agree with.

**Udog** · 12-02-2019, 08:13 PM

Tech Trends - Week 15
Bruce Marshall

Friday, Dec. 6

Matchup Skinny
Edge

UTAH vs. OREGON (Pac-12 title game at Levi;s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA)...Utes soaring, with eight straight wins and covers dating to Sept. 28 win over Washington State. Utah also ”under” 8-3-1 this season. Teams split last six meetings vs. spread. Ducks only 5-11 last 16 vs. spread away from Eugene, 2-8 vs. spread last ten as dog.
Utah, based on team trends.

Saturday, Dec. 7

Matchup Skinny
Edge

CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. MIAMI-OHIO (MAC title game at Ford Field, Detroit, MI)...Chips on a real surge for Jim McElwain, covering last 3 and 9 of last 10 on board this season. Miami-O no covers last two this year but has been 21-9 vs. line in second half of regular season the past five years. RedHawks 4-4 as dog this season, 9-6 in role since 2018.
Central Michigan, based on recent trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at APPALACHIAN STATE (Sun Belt title game)...Ragin’ Cajuns 16-4-2 vs. spread last 22 regular-season games, though failed to cover 2 of last 3 this season. As dog, ULL 7–1- last nine in role. App 8-4 vs. line this season, 21-7-1 vs. number since late 2017, though only 3-4 vs. spread last 7 at Boone. That includes win and non-cover vs. Ragin’ Cajuns in Belt title game last year.
Slight to UL-Lafayette, based on team trends.

BAYLOR vs. OKLAHOMA (Big 12 title game at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX)...Bears have covered their last four this season and 8 of their last 11, also covered all four Big 12 games away from Waco. Matt Rhule 4-0 vs. line as dog in 2019 and 10-2 last 12 in role. OU got the handy win and cover in Bedlam vs. Ok State but still just 2-6 vs. spread last 8 this season and has failed to cover 3 of last 4 vs. Baylor.
Baylor, based on team and series trends.

UAB at FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Conference USA title game)...Lane Kiffin covered 4 of last 5 this season and 6 of last 8, and UAB only 2-3 vs. spread last five this season. Blazers won C-USA title at MTSU in 2018 though have not been quite as profitable as visitor, covering just 4 of last 9 in role (better marks at home). UAB 0-2 as dog this season after 9-4 mark in role past two years. Teams haven’t met since 2014.
Florida Atlantic, based on team trends.

CINCINNATI at MEMPHIS (American title game)...Rematch of last Friday’s 34-24 Memphis win (bit no cover) at same Liberty Bowl. Tigers are 11-5-1 vs. spread last 17 at Liberty Bowl, Bearcats only 2-4 vs. spread down stretch and just 6-12 vs. number in second halves of regular season under Fickell since 2017. Bearcats only 3-7 vs. spread last 10 away from Nippert Stadium. Cincy also “under” 9-3 this season.
Slight to Memphis and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

HAWAII at BOISE STATE (Mountain West title game)...Rematch of 59-37 Boise win and cover on blue carpet October 12. Broncos have won and covered last three in series. Boise was 4-2 as blue carpet chalk this season after 16-35 mark in role previous 51 entering this season. Hawaii was 3-2 vs. line on mainland in 2019 after 2-8 mark previous 11 in role. Rolovich 7-12-1 as dog since 2017.
Boise State, based on recent and series trends.

GEORGIA vs. LSU (SEC title game as Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA)...LSU 10-4 vs. spread since late 2018. Teams met in 2018 with Tigers winning handily 36-16 in Baton Rouge. Kirby Smart 6-2 as dog since 2017. Bulldogs covered all five of their games away from home this season.
Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.

WISCONSIN vs. OHIO STATE (Big Ten title game at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN)...Buckeyes rolled in 38-7 romp at Big Horseshoe on October 26. Paul Chryst was 8-4 as dog as Wiscy coach until this season when he was 0-1 in role (at OSU). Badgers only covered 2 of last 6 this season, OSU 9-3 vs. spread in 2019.
Ohio State, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA vs. CLEMSON (ACC title game at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC)...Dabo again was hot down the stretch, covering 6 of last 7 this season, was 8-1-1 last 10 vs. number a year ago, 4-1 last 5 in 2017. Tigers have covered big last 2 ACC title games and 4-0 SU, 3-1 vs. spread last four in these games. Tigers also 13-1-1 vs. line last 15 in ACC. Bronco Mendenhall 7-2 as dog the past two seasons. Teams haven’t met since 2013.
Clemson, based on team trends.

**Udog** · 12-02-2019, 08:13 PM

103OREGON -104 UTAH
OREGON is 44-14 ATS (28.6 Units) after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.

105MIAMI OHIO -106 C MICHIGAN
MIAMI OHIO is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after 2 conference games over the last 2 seasons.

107LA LAFAYETTE -108 APPALACHIAN ST
LA LAFAYETTE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games with <=6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.

109BAYLOR -110 OKLAHOMA
BAYLOR is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) with <=6 days rest in the current season.

111UAB -112 FLA ATLANTIC
UAB is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after 2 straight unders over the last 2 seasons.

115HAWAII -116 BOISE ST
BOISE ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. poor defenses (>=5.9 YPP) in the last 3 seasons.

117GEORGIA -118 LSU
GEORGIA is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry in the last 3 seasons.

119WISCONSIN -120 OHIO ST
OHIO ST is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game in the current season.

121VIRGINIA -122 CLEMSON
CLEMSON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games after going under the total over the last 2 seasons.

**Udog** · 12-02-2019, 08:13 PM

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Friday, December 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OREGON (10 - 2) vs. UTAH (11 - 1) - 12/6/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
UTAH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
UTAH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
UTAH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
UTAH is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
UTAH is 123-91 ATS (+22.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
UTAH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
UTAH is 47-24 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
OREGON is 60-37 ATS (+19.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 1-1 against the spread versus OREGON over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 1-1 straight up against OREGON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, December 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI OHIO (7 - 5) vs. C MICHIGAN (8 - 4) - 12/7/2019, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
C MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
C MICHIGAN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
MIAMI OHIO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI OHIO is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI OHIO is 1-0 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI OHIO is 1-0 straight up against C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA LAFAYETTE (10 - 2) at APPALACHIAN ST (11 - 1) - 12/7/2019, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
APPALACHIAN ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
LA LAFAYETTE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-2 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
APPALACHIAN ST is 4-0 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BAYLOR (11 - 1) vs. OKLAHOMA (11 - 1) - 12/7/2019, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BAYLOR is 2-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 3-0 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UAB (9 - 3) at FLA ATLANTIC (9 - 3) - 12/7/2019, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UAB is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UAB is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UAB is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
UAB is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
UAB is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (10 - 2) at MEMPHIS (11 - 1) - 12/7/2019, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 72-50 ATS (+17.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAWAII (9 - 4) at BOISE ST (11 - 1) - 12/7/2019, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 153-112 ATS (+29.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 153-112 ATS (+29.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 96-66 ATS (+23.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 87-55 ATS (+26.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 95-68 ATS (+20.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 1-0 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 1-0 straight up against HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GEORGIA (11 - 1) vs. LSU (12 - 0) - 12/7/2019, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
GEORGIA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LSU is 1-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
LSU is 1-0 straight up against GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WISCONSIN (10 - 2) vs. OHIO ST (12 - 0) - 12/7/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 199-150 ATS (+34.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 199-150 ATS (+34.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 168-131 ATS (+23.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
OHIO ST is 131-98 ATS (+23.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
OHIO ST is 180-135 ATS (+31.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OHIO ST is 74-47 ATS (+22.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OHIO ST is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
OHIO ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
OHIO ST is 100-72 ATS (+20.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VIRGINIA (9 - 3) vs. CLEMSON (12 - 0) - 12/7/2019, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CLEMSON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
CLEMSON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 12-02-2019, 08:14 PM

NCAAF

Week 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, December 6

Oregon Ducks
Oregon is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oregon's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Oregon's last 15 games
Oregon is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Utah
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oregon's last 7 games when playing Utah
Utah Utes
Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Utah is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oregon
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games when playing Oregon

Saturday, December 7

Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Oklahoma is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Oklahoma is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Baylor
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baylor
Baylor Bears
Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Baylor is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
Baylor is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma
Baylor is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma

Central Michigan Chippewas
Central Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Central Michigan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Central Michigan's last 7 games
Central Michigan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami-OH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Central Michigan's last 7 games when playing Miami-OH
Miami-OH RedHawks
Miami-OH is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami-OH is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami-OH's last 5 games
Miami-OH is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Central Michigan
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami-OH's last 7 games when playing Central Michigan

Appalachian State Mountaineers
Appalachian State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Appalachian State is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Appalachian State's last 8 games
Appalachian State is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home
Appalachian State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Louisiana-Lafayette
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Appalachian State's last 7 games when playing Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Louisiana-Lafayette is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 7 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Louisiana-Lafayette is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 9 games on the road
Louisiana-Lafayette is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Appalachian State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 7 games when playing Appalachian State

Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Atlantic is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida Atlantic is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Florida Atlantic's last 9 games at home
Florida Atlantic is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Alabama-Birmingham
Florida Atlantic is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Alabama-Birmingham
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida Atlantic's last 5 games when playing Alabama-Birmingham
UAB Blazers
Alabama-Birmingham is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games
Alabama-Birmingham is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Alabama-Birmingham's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Alabama-Birmingham's last 5 games on the road
Alabama-Birmingham is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Florida Atlantic
Alabama-Birmingham is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Florida Atlantic
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Alabama-Birmingham's last 5 games when playing Florida Atlantic

Memphis Tigers
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Memphis's last 9 games
Memphis is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games at home
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games at home
Memphis is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati's last 12 games on the road
Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Memphis
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Memphis

LSU Tigers
Louisiana State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Louisiana State's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Louisiana State's last 8 games when playing Georgia
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Georgia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Georgia's last 7 games
Georgia is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Louisiana State
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Georgia's last 8 games when playing Louisiana State

Boise State Broncos
Boise State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boise State's last 10 games at home
Boise State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Hawaii
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hawaii
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boise State's last 6 games when playing Hawaii
Boise State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Hawaii
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Hawaii
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boise State's last 6 games when playing at home against Hawaii
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Hawaii is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Hawaii is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Hawaii's last 8 games
Hawaii is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Hawaii is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Hawaii is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Hawaii's last 9 games on the road
Hawaii is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boise State
Hawaii is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boise State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hawaii's last 6 games when playing Boise State
Hawaii is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Boise State
Hawaii is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boise State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hawaii's last 6 games when playing on the road against Boise State

Clemson Tigers
Clemson is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Virginia
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Virginia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Virginia's last 6 games
Virginia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Clemson

Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Wisconsin is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Wisconsin's last 5 games
Wisconsin is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Ohio State
Wisconsin is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ohio State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wisconsin's last 6 games when playing Ohio State
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio State's last 6 games
Ohio State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Wisconsin
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Wisconsin
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ohio State's last 6 games when playing Wisconsin

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 12-02-2019, 08:15 PM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 15

Friday, December 6

Oregon @ Utah

Game 103-104
December 6, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oregon
102.327
Utah
112.022
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 9 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 6 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-6 1/2); Over

Saturday, December 7

Miami of Ohio @ Central Michigan

Game 105-106
December 7, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami of Ohio
72.635
Central Michigan
82.102
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Michigan
by 9 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Michigan
by 6 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Central Michigan
(-6 1/2); Over

LA-Lafayette @ Appalachian St

Game 107-108
December 7, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA-Lafayette
92.292
Appalachian St
96.576
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Appalachian St
by 4 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Appalachian St
by 7
56
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Lafayette
(+7); Under

Baylor @ Oklahoma

Game 109-110
December 7, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baylor
107.160
Oklahoma
107.365
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baylor
Even
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma
by 9
63 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baylor
(+9); Under

Monmouth @ James Madison

Game 1621-1622
December 7, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Monmouth
69.420
James Madison
91.781
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
James Madison
by 22 1/2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
James Madison
by 27
64
Dunkel Pick:
Monmouth
(+27); Under

UAB @ Florida Atlantic

Game 111-112
December 7, 2019 @ 1:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UAB
76.079
Florida Atlantic
87.270
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 11
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 7 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Florida Atlantic
(-7 1/2); Over

Northern Iowa @ South Dakota St

Game 1623-1624
December 7, 2019 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northern Iowa
73.572
South Dakota St
76.097
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Dakota St
by 2 1/2
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Dakota St
by 8 1/2
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Northern Iowa
(+8 1/2); Under

SE Louisiana @ Montana

Game 1625-1626
December 7, 2019 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
SE Louisiana
66.774
Montana
80.401
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Montana
by 13 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montana
by 11 1/2
63 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Montana
(-11 1/2); Over

Kennesaw St @ Weber St

Game 1627-1628
December 7, 2019 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kennesaw St
66.574
Weber St
82.570
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Weber St
by 16
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Weber St
by 12
56
Dunkel Pick:
Weber St
(-12); Over

Illinois State @ Central Arkansas

Game 1629-1630
December 7, 2019 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Illinois State
68.885
Central Arkansas
60.781
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Illinois State
by 8
31
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Illinois State
by 1 1/2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Illinois State
(-1 1/2); Under

Albany @ Montana St

Game 1631-1632
December 7, 2019 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Albany
67.467
Montana St
80.222
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Montana St
by 13
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montana St
by 9 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Montana St
(-9 1/2); Under

Cincinnati @ Memphis

Game 113-114
December 7, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
89.001
Memphis
101.305
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 12 1/2
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
by 9 1/2
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(-9 1/2); Over

Nicholls St @ North Dakota St

Game 1633-1634
December 7, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Nicholls St
68.806
North Dakota St
93.973
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Dakota St
by 25
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Dakota St
by 28
52
Dunkel Pick:
Nicholls St
(+28); Over

Hawaii @ Boise State

Game 115-116
December 7, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Hawaii
82.834
Boise State
93.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boise State
by 10 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boise State
by 14
64 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Hawaii
(+14); Under

Georgia @ LSU

Game 117-118
December 7, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia
113.155
LSU
116.817
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LSU
by 3 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LSU
by 7 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia
(+7 1/2); Under

Southern U @ Alcorn State

Game 1637-1638
December 7, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Southern U
53.749
Alcorn State
58.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alcorn State
by 4 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alcorn State
by 7 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Southern U
(+7 1/2); Under

Virginia @ Clemson

Game 121-122
December 7, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Virginia
93.122
Clemson
125.126
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Clemson
by 32
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Clemson
by 28
55
Dunkel Pick:
Clemson
(-28); Under

Wisconsin @ Ohio State

Game 119-120
December 7, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wisconsin
106.719
Ohio State
127.298
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio State
by 20 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio State
by 15 1/2
57
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio State
(-15 1/2); Under

Austin Peay @ Sacramento St

Game 1635-1636
December 7, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Austin Peay
76.035
Sacramento St
76.272
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Austin Peay
Even
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Sacramento St
by 13
56
Dunkel Pick:
Austin Peay
(+13); Over

**Udog** · 12-02-2019, 08:16 PM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Friday’s game

Pac-12, Santa Clara, CA
Oregon won seven of last ten games with Utah, losing 32-25 in SLC LY, when Utah blew 19-7 halftime lead, then scored GW TD with 6:48 left. Utes (+5) lost Pac-12 title game 10-3 to Washington LY; they won their last eight games since a 30-23 loss at USC in September. Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Oregon won 10 of its last 11 games, losing last road game 31-28 at ASU; Ducks are in Pac-12 title game for first time since their 51-13 (-14) win over Arizona five years ago. Under Cristobal, Oregon is 1-4 ATS as an underdog, 0-1 TY. Four of their last six games went over.

Saturday’s games

MAC, Detroit
Central Michigan is 8-0 when they score 38+ points; they scored 20 or less in their four losses. CMU won its last two games with Miami, OH, 37-17/31-14; Chippewas are in MAC title game for first time in 10 years- they won six of last seven games after a 2-3 start, covering all four games they’ve been favored in TY. Six of their last seven games went over. Miami is in MAC title game for first time since 2010; they won five of last six games after a 2-4 start- they gave up 35+ points in all five of their losses. Red Hawks are 4-5 ATS as an underdog TY. Four of their last five games went under.

Sun Belt, Boone, NC
Appalachian State beat Louisiana 30-19 in this game LY; ASU also won 17-7 in Lafayette Oct 9, holding ULL to 254 TY- they’re 7-0 against the Ragin’ Cajuns (4-3 ATS). App State won its last four games since a 24-21 home loss to Ga Southern on Halloween- they’re 13-18-1 ATS in last 32 games as a home favorite, 2-3 TY. Six of their last eight games went under. Louisiana won its last six games since the loss to App State, which was only time in their last 11 games where they ran ball for less than 225 yards; under Napier, ULL is 5-1-1 ATS as a road underdog, 1-0 TY. Six of their last seven games went under the total.

Big 12, Arlington, TX
Oklahoma (-10.5) rallied from a 31-10 halftime deficit to beat Baylor 34-31 in Waco three weeks ago, their 20th win in last 23 series games. Oklahoma outgained Bears 525-307 that nite. Sooners are in Big X title game for 6th time in last seven years- they’re 8-0 in this game; they won their last four games since a loss at K-State- only one of those wins was by more than four points. Sooners’ last three games went under. Baylor is 11-1, with loss to Sooners the only blemish; half of their eight Big X wins were by 6 or fewer points. Bears covered six of their last eight games as an underdog. Four of their last five games stayed under. This is Baylor’s first appearance in the Big X title game.

Conference USA, Boca Raton
Florida Atlantic won four of its six games with UAB; last meeting was five years ago. UAB won its last three games overall, allowing 15 ppg; they won their last three games, allowing 15 ppg. Under Clark, UAB is 8-6 ATS as a road underdog, 0-2 TY. Four of their last five games stayed under. FAU won nine of last ten games after opening year with losses to Ohio/UCF; Owls scored 37.4 ppg in winning last five games. Under Kiffin, FAU is 10-6-1 ATS as a home favorite, 3-1 TY. These teams won last two C-USA titles; UAB won it LY, FAU the year before.

American, Memphis
Memphis scored 96 points in this game the last two years, but lost both games. Cincinnati won nine of its last ten games since a 42-0 loss at Ohio State in September; the loss was 34-24 (+13) on this field LW. Under Fickell, Bearcats are 6-4 ATS as a road underdog, 1-1 TY. Five of their last six games stayed under. Memphis scored 40.5 ppg in winning last four series games, winning three of last five meetings played here. Underdogs covered five of last seven series games. Tigers scored 42.7 ppg in winning their last six games; they’re 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.

Mountain West, Boise
Boise State is in Mountain West title game for 3rd year in row, splitting last two years- they lost this game in OT LY. Boise (-12.5) hammered Hawai’i 59-37 in October; they won their last seven games with the Rainbows, covered last six. Broncos are 6-5 ATS as a home favorite the last two years, 3-2 TY. Three of their last four games went over. Hawai’i is in MW title game for the first time; they won their last four games, after a 5-4 start. Rainbows are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog, 1-2 TY. Six of their last eight games went over the total. Going from Hawai’i to play in Boise in December can’t be lot of fun.

SEC, Atlanta
LSU is in SEC title game for first time in eight years; Georgia is in it for 3rd year in row, splitting last two years. LSU scored 52.5 ppg in their last four games, one of which was a 46-41 win at Alabama; Bayou Bengals are 8-4 ATS in last 13 games as a single digit favorite, 1-0 TY0 they gained 508+ TY in their last five games. Three of their last four games went over LSU won three of last four games with Georgia, beating them 36-16 (+7) at home LY. Georgia won its last six games, allowing 8.5 ppg, since a 20-17 home loss to South Carolina; since 2014, Dawgs are 4-1 ATS as an underdog. Six of their last seven games stayed under.

Big 14, Indianapolis
Ohio State (-14.5) beat Wisconsin 38-7 at home Oct 26; Buckeyes won Big 14 title game last two years. Wisconsin lost last three appearances here. OSU is 12-0 this year, 9-3 ATS, with 28-17 win over Penn State their closest game of the year; LW’s 56-27 win at Michigan was first time TY Buckeyes allowed more than 285 yards in any game. Three of their last four games went over. Wisconsin scored 35.3 ppg in winning its last three games, running ball for 341 ypg; Badgers’ last three games went over total. Over last three years, Wisconsin is 1-3 ATS as an underdog- their last four games went over the total.

ACC, Charlotte
Clemson scored 41.8 ppg in winning last four ACC title games, last two by 38-3/42-10 scores. Clemson won its last seven games overall, all by 31+ points, since escaping with a 21-20 win over North Carolina Sept 28; Tigers covered six of their last seven games- under is 5-3 in their last eight. Virginia is in this game for first time since 2011, only time they’ve made it; Cavaliers won their last four games after a 5-3 start- they were held to 21 or fewer points in all three of their losses. Virginia covered six of last nine games as an underdog, 2-2 TY. Five of their last six games went over. These teams haven’t met since 2013.

**Udog** · 12-02-2019, 08:19 PM

College football Week 15 opening odds and early action: Bettors pound Ohio State for clash vs Wisconsin
Patrick Everson

J.K. Dobbins and Ohio State face Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game Saturday in Indianapolis. PointsBet USA opened the Buckeyes -12.5, and the line shot to -16.5 before dialing back to -15.5.

College football Week 15 features conference championship games, led by the Power 5 matchups that will determine the College Football Playoff participants. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBet USA in New Jersey.

Big Ten

No. 12 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-12.5)

Ohio State has been a battering ram practically all season, winning by 24 points or more in all but one game, Week 13 against Penn State. In the Week 14 regular-season finale, the Buckeyes (12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS) boatraced archrival Michigan 56-27 as 9-point road favorites.

Wisconsin hit a two-week speed bump in October, stunningly losing at Illinois, followed by a 38-7 road beatdown catching 14.5 points at Ohio State. But the Badgers (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) won their last four, claiming the Big Ten West with Saturday’s 38-17 victory as 3-point faves at Minnesota.

PointsBet USA took a stand by posting lines on the Power 5 title games Saturday night, and this number subsequently saw huge movement, rocketing to Buckeyes -16.5.

“Ohio State went off as two-touchdown favorites when these teams met in Columbus five weeks ago, so we ticked that down slightly for the neutral-field rematch,” Chaprales said. “We got hit hard and fast with Buckeyes money, though, so we had to react aggressively.”

The move to 16.5 seemed to get the attention of Badgers backers, as the number dialed down to 15.5 Monday for a Saturday meeting at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis.

Southeastern Conference

No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 2 Louisiana State Tigers (-5.5)

Louisiana State also ran the table this season, including an impressive Week 11 road victory over Alabama. The Tigers (12-0 SU, 7-5 ATS) capped the regular season with a 50-7 trashing of Texas A&M laying 18 points in Week 14.

Georgia had just one slip-up this season, and oddly enough, it didn’t come against the top teams on its schedule – Notre Dame, Florida or Auburn – but rather at home to South Carolina in Week 7. The Bulldogs (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) won their next six, finishing with a 52-7 nonconference rout of Georgia Tech giving 28.5 points.

The Tigers went from -5.5 to -7 for this contest at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

“This game means a lot more to Georgia – LSU’s resume is already pretty much unassailable – but it’s nonetheless been all Tigers action so far, resulting in a series of moves,” Chaprales said. “It will be interesting to see if 7 marks a resistance point.”

Apparently, 7 wasn’t that point, as the number went to Tigers -7.5 on Monday.

Pac-12

No. 14 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 6 Utah Utes (-6.5)

Utah could be the biggest beneficiary of No. 5 Alabama’s loss at Auburn, as that could help Kyle Whittingham’s squad earn a CFP berth – if it wins this Friday night battle. The Utes (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) are on a torrid 8-0 SU and ATS streak, including Saturday’s 45-15 victory over Colorado laying 27.5 points at home.

Oregon can’t get into the CFP, but a New Year’s Six bowl bid would surely await if it wins this tilt at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. The Ducks (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) were in the CFP hunt until Week 13, when they went to Arizona State as 13-point road favorites and lost outright 31-28. Oregon then notched a lackluster 24-10 home win over Oregon State giving 20.5 points.

“Oregon’s loss definitely hurt the Pac 12’s hopes for a playoff bid, and it’s the reason this line is pushing 7 as opposed to closer to a field goal,” Chaprales said. “Utah has also been a covering machine, and early action has backed the Utes.”

Indeed, after an initial drop to -5.5 late Saturday, Utah was bet back up to the opener of -6.5.

Big 12

No. 9 Baylor Bears vs. No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners (-7.5)

Much like Georgia, Oklahoma’s lone loss this year was a stunning one, at Kansas State as 23.5-point chalk, and Lincoln Riley’s troops followed by winning their next three by a combined total of 8 points. However, the Sooners (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) finished strong with a 34-16 victory over Oklahoma State as 14-point favorites Saturday.

Baylor, meanwhile, gets the opportunity to avenge its only loss this season and perhaps land a CFP bid. In Week 12, the Bears (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) had Oklahoma on the ropes with a 28-3 second-quarter lead, but stalled from there in a 34-31 home loss catching 11 points. Baylor capped the regular season with a 61-6 drubbing of Kansas as 14-point home faves.

“The Sooners haven’t exactly been world beaters lately,” Chaprales said. “But their huge comeback a few weeks ago is certainly fresh in bettors’ minds, which has fueled interest on the Oklahoma side.”

After a downward move to Oklahoma -6.5 late Saturday, PointsBet moved to Sooners -9 by Monday for a Saturday tilt at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys.

Atlantic Coast

Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-21.5)

Clemson is a regular CFP participant, winning the championship last season and in the 2016-17 campaign while qualifying each of the past four years. The Tigers (12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS) had only one win closer than 14 points all season, and it was razor-close, a 21-20 victory at North Carolina as hefty 27.5-point favorites. Dabo Swinney’s squad closed the regular season with a 38-3 rout laying 27.5 points at South Carolina.

Virginia won four in a row and five of its last six to land a spot in this Saturday game in Charlotte, N.C. The Cavaliers completed the run with a 39-30 victory over Virginia Tech as 1.5-point home underdogs Saturday.

This line also made a huge move off the opening number, running all the way to Clemson -28.5.

“A pitfall of being first to post a huge game is that the market will quickly let you know if you’ve hung a bad number,” Chaprales said. “Case in point here, hence the significant adjustment.”

**Udog** · 12-04-2019, 05:27 PM

FIELDS OF PAIN

Ohio State's chances of winning this weekend's Big Ten Championship Game against Wisconsin might be a little shakier than originally thought. Standout Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields says his left knee isn't 100 percent after he aggravated an MCL injury in last week's throttling of the rival Michigan Wolverines. Fields, who originally suffered the injury against Penn State last month, told reporters he'll face the Badgers with a brace if need be. Fields had his worst showing of the season against Wisconsin back in October – going just 12-for-22 for 167 yards – but it didn't matter, as Ohio State rolled to a 38-7 victory.

Fields' limited mobility likely won't keep Ohio State from pulling out the conference championship, but it does hamper the Buckeyes' offensive upside. In a game featuring a total in the mid-50s despite both teams' standout defenses, we favor the Under.

BUCKLING DOWN EARLY

Two of the stingiest first-quarter defenses in the nation will take the field this Saturday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas as the Oklahoma Sooners square off against the Baylor Bears in the Big 12 Championship Game. Baylor comes in ranked third in the nation in first-half scoring defense vs. FBS teams, allowing just 1.6 points per game; Oklahoma isn't far behind in 13th (3.8 ppg against). And while Baylor enjoyed a 14-3 first-quarter lead in their previous meeting, that was due largely to a rare Sooners 3-and-out on their second possession of the game; they wouldn't have another for the rest of the contest.

Both teams excel at keeping opponents off the scoreboard in the early going, and should do the same in a game that could result in one of these teams earning College Football Playoff consideration. We like the Under on the 1Q total.

LOOKING ORDINARY

It takes a lot to make standout Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor look mortal – but the Ohio State Buckeyes don't seem to have a problem doing it as they face the Badgers in Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Taylor rumbled to 1,761 yards and 20 touchdowns for Wisconsin this season, averaging better than 6.0 YPC for the third straight season. But there's a black mark on his 2019 resume, and it's the 20-carry, 52-yard clunker he put up in a 38-7 loss to Ohio State on Oct. 26. Taylor has just 93 rushing yards and zero touchdowns on 35 carries all-time vs. the Buckeyes.

Even with oddsmakers likely to be modest with Taylor's rushing total, bettors should probably lean toward the Under given just how dominant the Ohio State run defense has been this season (91.2 ypg against, fourth-best in FBS).

BURREAUX BY A BOATLOAD

Regardless of whether the LSU Tigers win or lose the SEC Championship Game against Georgia this Saturday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, it's difficult to envision quarterback Joe Burrow not winning the Heisman Trophy. Burrow has been simply magnificent at the helm of the Tigers' No. 2-ranked offense, racking up 4,366 yards and 44 touchdowns and just six INTs while adding 399 rushing yards and seven scores. And Burrow has saved some of his best work for the cream of the college crop, completing nearly 80 percent of his passes with an 11/2 TD/INT ratio against nationally ranked opponents.

You might have missed your opportunity to get Burrow's Heisman futures at a decent price, but there's still money to be made at -2000. With three Ohio State players splitting the vote and no one else in the same stratosphere, Burrow is a lock to win.

**Udog** · 12-05-2019, 10:39 AM

Saturday's Best Bets - Sides
Matt Blunt

Nine conference titles will be decided on Saturday, and with it will come nine point spread results that hopefully you are on the right side of more often then not. Conference championship games have basically been a coin flip the past three years in terms of ATS wins for favorites or underdogs, as it was split right down the middle last year (5-5 ATS).

Prior to that, 2017 saw favorites go 5-3-1 ATS, while 2016 title games saw favorites finish 3-5 ATS. That's as even as it gets (13-13-1 ATS) in terms of backing favorites or underdogs, and with every favorite this year laying at least six points, I would not be surprised to see this year's results be nearly even again.

With that in mind, I've got one favorite and one underdog to back on Saturday, so let's get to it.

Conference Championship Favorite to Back:

Central Michigan (-7)

The Chippewas caught the break of the year last week when Western Michigan failed to win at Northern Illinois earlier in the week. Bad weather and sloppy execution did the Broncos in, as maybe the “Row the Boat” culture that former HC P.J Fleck started at Western Michigan has some issues in late November when all the bodies of water have frozen over. Either way, Central Michigan had everything in front of them after that loss and took full advantage of it on Black Friday with a dominant 49-7 win over Toledo to win the MAC West and punch their ticket to this title game.

The Chippewas now face a Miami (OH) team that went through the motions last week knowing they were already assured this spot, ultimately ending a five-game winning streak in the process. But the MAC East was a much softer division by far this year, and getting a division crown on the back of beating the likes of Akron and Bowling Green – who went a combined 3-21 SU and 4-20 ATS this year – isn't anything special. The Redhawks were also underdogs in every single conference game outside of those Bowling Green and Akron contests which is quite telling as well.

And yet, they rode some close wins – they were 4-0 SU in games decided by 7 points or less – to a division crown, as they were just +35 in point differential in MAC play as it was. Eventually running good like that in tight games wears out, and against a team the quality of Central Michigan, I expect that to be the case here.

The Chippewas finished MAC play with a +121 point differential in their eight conference games, as all but one of their six wins came by at least 14 points. That type of dominant football is what leads a team like Central Michigan to a 9-3 ATS record overall this year, and they were a perfect 6-0 ATS in MAC play if they won the game outright. What that says is that if you believe the Chippewas will win the game, the point spread won't matter, and after getting new life on their 2019 season because of that Western Michigan loss, the Chippewas definitely got new life.

Central Michigan made the most of that situation in the regular season finale, and that should carry over to this week's conference title game. They are by far the better team on both sides of the ball and as long as the Chippewas protect the football – they had 5 and 3 turnovers respectively in their two MAC losses – this game should be one they control from start to finish.

12 years ago these two teams met in the MAC title game and as three-point favorites it was Central Michigan who came away with a 35-10 win. This year's score could end up being quite similar, as the Chippewas end their 10 year drought of being the MAC champion.

Conference Championship Underdog to Back:

Georgia Bulldogs (+7.5)
Georgia ML

So it's a done deal right? Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson are going to be in the college football playoff regardless of what happens on Saturday, and then it's all up to who had more style points between Utah and Oklahoma/Baylor for that 4th spot right? I mean, that's what all the conversation seems to be about early this week. Poor old Georgia, not even in the same zip code as Dabo Swinney's “ROY” bus right now as the consensus #4 team that controls their own destiny.

And while I do tend to agree with the first part of that idea that Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson will be CFB Playoff bound regardless, if that is the case, technically, LSU can afford a loss here right? There is no way that a one-loss LSU team who has been in the Top 2 for the entirety of the rankings would get completely bumped out of the Top 4 after a conference championship loss to the #4 team, and the Tigers have to be feeling pretty comfortable with that position as it currently stands. That's not to say LSU will no-show or anything like that, as motivation to remain undefeated and win the SEC for the first time since they beat Georgia in 2011 is still there, but they aren't fighting for everything in the same sense that the Bulldogs are.

Georgia used their regular season finale vs Georgia Tech to get the offense right again, as the concerns of not scoring TD's and settling for FG's as they had for games prior were put to bed by the second drive. After opening up with a FG vs the Yellow Jackets, Georgia went on to put up seven TD's the rest of the way to at least gain some much needed confidence on that side of the ball heading into this LSU showdown. LSU's offense has lit up everyone this year, and for as much as Georgia likes to rely on their defense to get key stops, and Kirby Smart is a defensive guy, the Bulldogs knew they have to be able to put up TD's when the opportunities are there to beat a team like LSU.

And speaking of Kirby Smart, there is something to be said for a guy who's been on the sidelines in seven of the last 11 SEC title games in some capacity. This is the third straight year he's guided Georgia to this game as the head man, but he was the DC in Alabama for all those years that the Crimson Tide found there way to this spot. That type of experience can't be overlooked in a big game like this, and even the core of his team on the field can join him there with this being their third straight appearance. Also, I'm sure Kirby Smart has contacted old pal Nick Saban to pick his brain on ideas on how to get past LSU this week too.

So all this talk about whether it will be Utah, Oklahoma or even Baylor to make it into the 4th spot in the playoff is something I'll let others waste their breath about all week.

This Bulldogs team remembers the sting of being in this identical spot a year ago – sitting at #4 before the SEC Championship – and blowing a 21-14 halftime, and 28-21 lead going into the 4th against Alabama. That loss had the Big 12 champ Oklahoma take their spot, and I'd venture a guess that every Georgia player that was in pads last year, and every coach that was on the sideline last year will be damned if they let it happen again.

If the Bulldogs get beat by the better team then so be it, but they'll aim to be at their best from the outset here, and I do believe they win this game outright. Remember, this is the first time on this stage for basically everyone wearing LSU colors, and if they've already got that sense of entitlement of knowing/assuming they are in the playoff regardless, Georgia will show no mercy if they are given that chance.

Georgia wins this game 28-24.

**Udog** · 12-05-2019, 10:43 AM

Saturday's Best Bets - Totals
Matt Blunt

Considering half of the 10 title games this weekend are rematches from the regular season, there is somewhat of a benchmark to work with when handicapping these totals, but that doesn't necessarily mean you should weigh what happened in the first meeting overly heavy.

Teams have grown/regressed/changed since then in all likelihood – outside of say the Cincinnati/Memphis game who just played last week – and the stakes have ramped up considerably since those first meeting for some. And similar to the sides piece, I've got one 'over' and one 'under' to strongly consider, although only one of the two plays is a rematch game. Let's get to it:

Conference Championship Over to Back:

Baylor/Oklahoma Over 64.5

This is the rematch game that makes the card, as it's probably the most highly anticipated rematch game on the board this week. Depending on how the Pac-12 and SEC title games shake out, the winner of this Big 12 contest could find themselves playoff bound. And given that the Baylor Bears thought they were the 2016 Atlanta Falcons in the first meeting with the Sooners, blowing a 28-3 lead to lose 34-31, there has been plenty of talk about the Bears getting another crack at Oklahoma since that meeting. The potential of the winner being CFB Playoff bound only adds to the intrigue.

But I'm not concerned with the side outcome in this game (although I would lay it with Oklahoma if forced to), as Baylor showed some character in not slipping up in their final two regular season games after that loss. The Bears did get some help in that regard as they faced a Texas team that had no interest in finishing the year strong after all their goals were unattainable, and Kansas just isn't a very good team. But make no mistake about it, Baylor has been itching for another crack at the Sooners, and I doubt they get held off the score sheet in the 2nd half like they did in the first meeting.

Oklahoma isn't interested in digging such a deep hole for themselves either, as they've heard all the noise about how badly Baylor wants another crack at them as well. From the Sooners perspective, they played an awful 1st half of football in that first meeting and still found a way to come away with the victory. An outcome like that can only give them confidence that should they be sharp from the outset in the rematch and take care of the ball throughout, that this game will be one that ultimately goes the Sooners way in a relative easy fashion.

Either way, I do expect both sides to be out to put up points, as Baylor has to believe no lead is safe against Oklahoma, while the Sooners will be looking to blow out the Bears early to squash any hope of revenge Baylor has. “Style points” are likely needed for whomever ends up winning this game, and when you put the whole picture together, it does suggest points will be scored.

In terms of looking at the first game, the 'under' did connect, but it was a rather lucky one considering Baylor was held scoreless in the final 30 minutes after putting up 31 points in the first 30 minutes. Obviously you could say that Oklahoma expected to score more then 10 points in the first half as well, which is what leads to the 'over' being the only way I believe you can look here.

And even though this is far from the best of the number having opened up around 62 for the rematch, I'm not sure it will matter. Oklahoma's defense is still one that can be had, and the Sooners will generally find a way to put up points themselves.

The fact that this number has been bumped up a few points since open with still the slight majority on the low side of things is telling as well, and with 65 points still put up in the 1st meeting where each team only really played a half of football up to their standards offensively, it's hard not to like the high side of this total.

After all, Baylor finished the regular season averaging 34.4 points per game, while Oklahoma clocked in at 42/game. We don't even need both sides to hit those numbers to see this one sail well over the number, although getting 70+ total points here should be the end result.

Conference Championship Under to Back:

Virginia/Clemson Under 55.5

Dabo Swinney's rhetoric about nobody respecting Clemson and sticking up for his eight-game conference schedule is nothing but old at this point, but coaches will do and say whatever they feel they need to to stick up for their team and motivate them at the same time.

Playing the 'nobody respects us' card has become a time honored tradition for Swinney and Clemson, and if that's what fires up his team and gets them to play at their best then so be it. But you know what fires me up for the ACC title game this week. The fact that Clemson hasn't got enough respect to be laying 30 points or more because that's when their totals tend to become more of a coin flip.

This year the Tigers are a perfect 0-6 O/U this year when laying less than 30 points, and in that role the past three seasons they are 7-20-1 O/U. Whatever rhetoric Swinney uses in these types of spots when the whole world expects them to win big, seems to get his defense going the best, as they've allowed just 10.5 points per game in these sub-30 favorite roles this year, and I'm not sure that changes against a Virginia team that's played well over their head offensively in recent weeks against lackluster competition.

From a Virginia perspective, they want no part of being involved in a shootout type contest with Clemson, because it's those games where talent tends to win out in the end, and the talent edge on both sides of the ball clearly sides with Clemson. Since the Cavaliers have a running QB and would prefer to methodically move the ball down the field as it is, they will be comfortable slowing down the game in their attempt to pull off a monumental upset. How successful they are at it probably won't be very, but if they can slow things down for a half at least, that can only help an 'under' wager.

In all likelihood this game turns out to be a typical Clemson ACC game where they get out to a big lead by the break and then use their running game to bleed the clock away in the second half. Virginia's defense – which has been suspect of late too – should be good enough given what's on the line to hold down the 2nd half scoring in that case.

You know if Clemson's defense gives up more then 10 points in this game that they'll be disappointed in themselves, and given that their last two ACC titles the past two years have come thanks to 38-3 and 42-10 scores, this year's game probably resembles those final outcomes a great deal.

**Udog** · 12-05-2019, 08:05 PM

UP, UP, AND AWAY

You can expect the American Athletic Conference championship game Saturday between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the host Memphis Tigers to be a tight one. The Tigers come in as nearly double-digit favorites after ripping off 11 wins in 12 regular-season games while going a perfect 6-0 at home and 8-4 ATS for the season. But while the Bearcats fell short in their previous meeting, dropping a 34-24 decision in Memphis, they covered the -13.5-point spread and extended the road team cover streak to five games in the head-to-head series while improving to 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between the teams.

The Bearcats are better than Saturday's spread might suggest, even with Memphis having dominated at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium this season – and we like the AAC title game to be competitive enough for Cincinnati to make good on the cover.

REELING RAINBOW WARRIORS

When it comes to facing superior competition, Hawaii has been one of the worst teams in the country – and that doesn't bode well at all for the Rainbow Warriors as they visit Boise State on Saturday for the Mountain West Conference championship. Hawaii looked dreadful in its three biggest games of the season, losing to Washington, Boise State and Air Force by an average of 28 points. And that extends a troubling trend for the Rainbow Warriors, who are just 7-18 ATS in their previous 25 games against teams with winning records and 5-15-1 ATS in their previous 21 as an underdog.

A return to Albertsons Stadium comes with Hawaii receiving nearly two converted touchdowns vs. the Broncos, who beat the Rainbow Warriors 59-37 in their previous meetings. We see the home side covering in the rematch.

SLOW START COMING?

Oddsmakers aren't giving Virginia much of a chance of keeping pace with the defending-champion Clemson Tigers, who look to return to the College Football Playoff as they host the Cavaliers in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game on Saturday night. Virginia comes in ranked 60th in the country in first-half points per game, thanks largely to a strong offensive stretch in which it has scored 33+ points in four straight contests. But the Tigers have shut the door on opposing teams, allowing just 3.8 first-half points per game vs. FBS teams; Clemson hasn't allowed a first-half TD since a Week 9 rout of Boston College.

Virginia's first-half team total is sitting at or around 7; we recommend the Under given Clemson's defensive dominance, which should effectively negate any offensive gains the Cavaliers have made over the past month.

BLAZERS IN BIG TROUBLE

The Alabama-Birmingham Blazers will need to stay on the field if they hope to keep up with the Florida Atlantic Owls as the Conference USA rivals tangle Saturday in their conference championship. And that could be a difficult task; UAB has one of the worst third-down conversion rates in the country, having extended a drive just 33.5 percent of the time (113th overall). And that rate might drop even further after this weekend, with FAU limiting opponents to a 32-percent success rate for the season (18th). But UAB has been even better at choking off drives, ranking fourth in the nation in third-down rate against (27.5 percent).

Look for plenty of three-and-outs in this one, which puts the Under squarely in play.

**Udog** · 12-06-2019, 10:57 AM

Pac-12 Championship
Matt Blunt

Oregon vs. Utah
Venue/Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Time/TV: Friday, Dec. 6 (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Utah -6.5, Total 46.5

Having wrrtten Friday night college football betting previews all season, I know that the Pac-12 as a conference likes to showcase their wares on Friday's, and they get to be the lone show in town this week. The conference gets to crown their champion first and make a statement (one way or another) into how the final college football rankings will take shape. A win for Utah and they likely get into the playoff if everything else were to hold as is right now, while an Oregon win opens up the door for the Big 12 specifically, but also some debate.

The pressure is quite thick if you are a Utah fan/backer, and we all know that pressure can burst pipes or create diamonds. Which side of that equation the Utes end up falling on remains to be seen, so let's get right to breaking this game down.

The case for backing Utah in this game centers on them ending up on the “diamonds” end of that pressure equation, as everyone knows this is a must-win for the Utes. Must win doesn't equate to will win though, and even if it did, you've got the whole pesky point spread question of will Utah win by a TD or not to deal with as well. Early action saw Utah get a bump from the opening number, but I have a hunch that was just bettors who were looking to get out ahead of the market. It's easy to assume that Utah will get the majority of support as the week goes on because of the “must win” angle, and the motivational aspect of the Utes needing plenty of “style points” to help their CFB Playoff case.

With that being the likely arc of the betting market for this game, getting the best of the number on Utah meant that early action was necessary, but should this line reach -7 I would expect to see some buyback come Oregon's way. And yet, it's the notion of Utah needing “style points” that is highly intriguing to me in the sense that it's not the side I'm all that considered with, it's the total.

The total has seen nothing but 'under' action since opening at 51, and with the weather forecast projecting a lot of rain in San Francisco for this game, it's likely an early weather related move. But just like “must win” doesn't equal “will win,” rainy weather doesn't equal 'under' especially when you've got a team that's very used to wet weather like Oregon involved. Furthermore, let's revisit this notion of Utah needing “style points” or a dominant win to help further their case to the CFB Playoff selection committee.

If Utah is going to get a dominant win, that means they are going to have plenty of points up on the scoreboard. Utah scored 30 or more points in 10 of their 12 games this year and never fewer then 21. With an average point total of 35.6 per game, we should be able to assume that Utah will put up what, at least 24 points in a blowout win, but most likely more right.

Defensively, the Utes have been great all year in allowing just 11.3 points per game, as only two foes have scored 20 or more against them this season – USC and Washington. Both of those games came on the road for Utah – this isn't a road game, but it's not a home game either – and those two foes were two of the four teams Utah faced in Pac-12 play this year that ended up with a winning record. The other two were Arizona State and California, and Utah did hold them to a combined 3 points, but they were also home games for the Utes.

In other words, the only conference games Utah played this year against an above average (ie winning) team outside of Salt Lake City saw their foes put up at least 28 points against them. And I'm pretty sure that 33-28 win for Utah in Washington had some rainy weather involved as well. Washington and USC scored at least 7 points in seven of those eight quarters played against Utah, so it's not like it was one bad quarter/half filled with mistakes for the Utes either. Those opponents were consistently moving the ball against this stout Utah defense, and as long as Oregon shows up and is interested in playing spoiler, I believe they are capable of doing the same. Speaking of which, everyone knows it's a “must win” spot for Utah, but how about we look at this game from an Oregon perspective.

Oregon's playoff hopes may have died a few weeks back against Arizona State, but winning the conference is still the #1 goal for every program in the country when they begin the season in August. The Ducks have an opportunity to still attain that goal and with the strength of their team being on offense, they'll rely on that side of the ball to try and get the job done. The Ducks know they are far less likely to win a 14-10 style of game here, and the more they are able to move the ball and put up points on Utah, the more the pressure ramps up on the Utes as they start to shift towards the 'pipe bursting' side of the pressure equation. How is that not good for the 'over'?

And let's say Oregon does end up no-showing in this game, knowing that they've got no playoff hopes and QB Justin Herbert is more concerned about protecting his health for his future pro career. Well, they will no show defensively as well in that scenario, and we could see Utah put up 40+ points themselves. The Utes average 35/game as it is, and with rainy weather potentially lending itself to a few turnovers, if they end up coming on the right side of the field, quick points could be put up in a hurry.

Even in that scenario – a Utah blowout win where they score 40+ – this game should sail 'over' the total. I mean, you'd have to go all the way back to November 2007 to find a game where this Oregon program got shut out, and they've only been held to less than 7 points once this entire decade. So even in a no-show effort from the Ducks, they should still find the end zone at least once.

I'm not so sure a no-show effort by the Ducks offense will be in the cards though, as they can still reach their main goal with a win in this game (winning a conference title) and if Herbert is more concerned about his individual future, putting a solid game tape out there against a quality defense like Utah's can only help his cause.

And when you consider that Utah being a defense-first program is not exactly a new phenomenon this year, and these two programs have met every season since 2013 with at least 57 total points scored in all of those contests (5-1 O/U), defensive slugfests just aren't the norm for these two programs. You can easily see why the 'under' got all the early action with the weather forecast and both defenses having solid season long numbers, but the bulk of those numbers have come against sub-par Pac-12 teams – only half the conference finished with a winning record.

These are two quality teams squaring off, and in the majority of scenarios in terms of how this game likely plays out, it's not hard to see points being scored. Sure, I've been wrong on breakdowns like this before (and I will be again), but this total is just far too low now and the best way to bet this game is going on the high side of this total.

Best Bet: Over 46.5

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