NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Thur., Nov. 21 - Mon., Nov. 25)

[Udog]

NFL's Top Over Teams:

1. Buccaneers 8-2 O/U
t2. Cowboys 7-3 O/U
t2. Lions 7-3 O/U
t4. Cardinals 7-4 O/U
t4. Chiefs 7-4 O/U
t6. Baltimore, Carolina, Indianapolis, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland & Seattle all tied at 6-4 O/U


NFL's Top Under Teams:

1. Chargers 8-3 U/O
t2. Falcons 7-3
t2. Bills 7-3
t2. Bears 7-3
t2. Bengals 7-3
t2. Rams 7-3
t2. Patriots 7-3
t2. Steelers 7-3
t9. Cleveland, Denver, Houston, Miami, & Washington all tied at 6-4

[Udog]

TNF - Colts at Texans
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Colts (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) rebounded from a stunning loss as an 11-point underdog to the Dolphins the previous week to cruise past the Jaguars, 33-13 as 2 ½-point favorites. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett returned to the lineup for the Colts after missing the Miami game with a knee injury as threw for 148 yards and a touchdown, while running for another score.

Jacksonville scored the first touchdown of the game, but it was all Indianapolis after that as the Colts scored the next 31 points. The Colts torched the Jaguars on the ground by rushing for 264 yards on 36 carries, led by 116 yards from Jonathan Williams, who had rushed for 95 yards in his career prior to busting out on Sunday. Marlon Mack also hit the century mark on the ground as the Colts’ running back racked up 109 yards and a touchdown, but left the game with a fractured hand and will miss several weeks.

The Texans (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) had an excellent opportunity to make a statement as one of the top teams in the AFC, but Houston’s offense could never get going in a 41-7 beatdown at the hands of the Ravens in Baltimore. The lone Texans’ touchdown came on a 41-yard scamper from Carlos Hyde in the fourth quarter with Houston sitting in a 34-0 hole, as Deshaun Watson was limited to 169 yards passing. Watson has thrown for under 201 yards in four games this season, as Houston fell to 1-3 in those contests.

Houston’s defense allowed 263 yards rushing to Baltimore, as the Texans’ first three losses came by a combined 11 points before losing by 34 last Sunday. The Texans fell to 3-3 ATS in the role of an underdog, while giving up its most points since yielding 41 points at Seattle in a three-point defeat in 2017. Houston’s pass defense has been lit up during the last six games by allowing 17 touchdown passes, including at least three passing touchdowns five times in this stretch.

MORE ON THAT LEAKY DEFENSE

Going further into that last nugget regarding the Texans and how opponents have torched them through the air lately is eye-opening. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson threw four touchdown passes last week, the only aberration is Jacksonville’s Gardner Minshew, who failed to get the Jaguars in the end zone in a 26-3 setback in London to Houston. But Oakland’s Derek Carr posted three touchdown passes in a 27-24 defeat at Houston in Week 8, Brissett tossed four touchdowns in a seven-point win by the Colts in Week 7, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes put up three in Week 6, and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan threw three touchdowns in Week 5.

ON THE ROAD AGAIN

The Colts began the season with a pair of contests away from Lucas Oil Stadium by losing to the Chargers in overtime and edging the Titans. Since the bye week, Indianapolis has played four of five games at home, as the lone road affair came at Pittsburgh in a 26-24 defeat in Week 9. The Colts have split their four away contests, as every game has been decided by six points or fewer. Under head coach Frank Reich, the Colts own a 6-4-1 ATS mark in the role of a road underdog.

DIVISION IMPLICATIONS

Indianapolis is the only team in the AFC South to post a perfect record against division foes so far at 3-0. Houston has gone 2-1 inside the AFC South with both victories coming against Jacksonville and the loss coming to Indianapolis (more on that in a moment). Both the Colts and Texans own a one-game advantage over the Titans (who Indianapolis has already defeated once), while the Jaguars are sitting in last place at 4-6. The Colts host the Titans next week, while Houston draws Tennessee twice in the final three weeks of the season.

SERIES HISTORY

These division rivals hooked up three times last season as the road team won each time. Houston outlasted Indianapolis in overtime, 37-34 at Lucas Oil Stadium to pick up its first victory following an 0-3 start that spurred a nine-game winning streak. That hot stretch ended at NRG Stadium in Week 14 when the Colts held off the Texans, 24-21 as four-point underdogs, highlighted by 399 yards passing and two touchdowns from Andrew Luck.

In the Wild Card round, the Colts cruised past the AFC South champion Texans, 21-7 as 1 ½-point road underdogs. The top three offensive weapons from that game for Indianapolis that day (Luck, Mack, and T.Y. Hilton) are not available for Thursday, but the Colts are seeking the season sweep of the Texans for the first time since 2017.

The Colts held off the Texans in Week 7 as 1 ½-point favorites at Lucas Oil Stadium, 30-23 following the bye week. Brissett’s highest touchdown passing total of the season took place in that game (4), while throwing for a season-high 326 yards. Indianapolis built a 14-9 halftime lead before Brissett hooked up with tight end Eric Ebron on a four-yard touchdown pass early in the third quarter for a commanding 21-9 advantage. The Texans crept back within five points on a Watson touchdown connection with DeAndre Hopkins with 6:38 remaining in regulation, but that’s as close as Houston would get.

TOTAL TALK

After watching the ‘over’ connect in six straight primetime games in Week 9 and 10, the ‘under’ stormed back with a 3-0 mark in Week 11 and all of the results were never in doubt. For this week’s divisional matchup between the Colts and Texans, the total opened at 45 ½ and most books are holding 45 as of Wednesday.

The ‘over’ (46 ½) cashed in the first matchup between the pair but that outcome could be considered an anomaly, since the ‘under’ was on a 5-1 run in the previous six meetings.

Chris David provides us with his thoughts on the first encounter, plus offers up his total lean for the rematch.

He said, “What stands out from the first game is that both teams moved the football, combining for close to 400 yards of offense and 20-plus first downs. Both teams put up five scores and the difference came down to Houston kicking three field goals, while Indianapolis put four touchdowns and a late safety. The four scores for the Colts came from Brissett and that was a career record day for him. While Brissett has filled in the gap nicely for the previous QB that quit on the Colts, it’s still tough to trust him on the road. In 11 games outside of Lucas Oil Stadium, Indy has gone 3-8 with Brissett.”

Sticking with the numbers that CD mentioned, make a note that Brissett has gone 2-2 outside of Indy this season and he was knocked out early in a 28-26 loss at the Steelers in Week 9. Also, the other road win in his career came in 2017 at Houston but the Texans had Tom Savage at QB and he’s no longer in the NFL.

The Texans have watched the ‘under’ go 6-4 this season while the Colts have gone 6-4 to the ‘over.’ Over the past two seasons, Houston has been a great ‘under’ bet at home but David believes we should tread lightly on that trend.

“Houston has watched the ‘under’ go 3-1 at home this season and going back to the 2018 campaign, the low side is on a 9-4 (69%) run at NRG Stadium. Delving into those numbers further, the ‘under’ is 5-1 in divisional matchups but the Colts (24, 21) did manage to put up points in two wins. This year’s defense for the Texans has taken a step back due to injuries (J.J. Watt) and trades (Jadeveon Clowney). Fortunately for Houston, its offense has had to pick up the slack and it’s done so. In six wins, the club is averaging 29.5 PPG. And after losses, the team is averaging 31 PPG. The team total for Houston (25 ½) looks more than doable and I believe we’ll see more sixes instead of threes on Thursday,” added David.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson weighs in on his thoughts regarding this matchup, “In short, the statistics paint Houston as the much stronger offense while the Colts have the edge on defense. Houston is far more productive in the passing game gaining a full yard per pass attempt more than Indianapolis while also rushing for nearly a half yard more per carry. The Colts have effective defensive numbers against the run allowing just 97 yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush while also allowing only 6.6 yards per pass attempt and leaving opposing quarterbacks with lower ratings by nine points on average.”

Even though these teams own identical records, Nelson points out the Texans have endured a tougher schedule to this point, “Houston has played the fifth-toughest schedule in the league compared to the #24 slate for the Colts. The difference so far has been facing the Ravens in the 1st place draw while already playing the Saints from the NFC South draw. The schedule gap will grow further next week when the Texans host the Patriots though the path in the final four weeks is manageable for Houston, still to play the Titans twice while also facing Denver and Tampa Bay.”

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions – Jacoby Brissett (IND)
Over 21 ½ (-110)
Under 21 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Jacoby Brissett (IND)
Over 1 ½ (-110)
Under 1 ½ (-110)

Will Jacoby Brissett (IND) throw an interception?
Yes +105
Under -125

Total Receiving Yards – Eric Ebron (IND)
Over 36 ½ (-110)
Under 36 ½ (-110)

Total Gross Passing Yards – Deshaun Watson (HOU)
Over 265 ½ (-110)
Under 265 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Deshaun Watson (HOU)
Over 1 ½ (-150)
Under 1 ½ (+130)

Total Rushing Yards – Carlos Hyde (HOU)
Over 69 ½ (-110)
Under 69 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)
Over 82 ½ (-110)
Under 82 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

On Tuesday November 12, the Westgate Superbook released early lines for the NFL as the Texans opened as a 5 ½-point favorite against the Colts. Following Sunday’s results, Houston dropped to a 3 ½-point favorite at the Westgate, while the total remained the same at 45 ½.

Favorites have posted a 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS mark in the last seven Thursday night games, but only two home teams have won and covered in the favorite role (Patriots in Week 6 and Browns in Week 11).

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


JAGS TO FEATURE FOURNETTE

Jacksonville Jaguars coach Doug Marrone believes that RB Leonard Fournette didn’t touch the ball enough last week in their loss to the Colts. The lead back, who had averaged 26 touches a game over his previous six contests, handled the ball just 15 times in Week 11 but game flow was a big reason for that.

The Jaguars should have a better time keeping the game close and allow Fournette to be an option in both the running and passing game as they visit the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee has three wins in their last six games but has only won by three or four points in each of those games, meaning they aren’t blowing anyone out and forcing teams to abandon the run.

There is no reason that the Jacksonville RB can't rush the ball 17-20 times while chipping in half a dozen catches. With the Titans allowing four yards per carry and six yards per pass attempt to opposing RBs and Fournette averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 5.7 yards per target, we can take the difference of those totals and see a 20-rush and seven-target day for Fournette working out to 127 total yards.

Take the Over on Fournette’s total yards of 113.5 yards.


FINGERS CROSSED FOR HILTON ON TNF

T.Y. Hilton is a game-time decision for Thursday Night Football as the Colts lock horns with the Texans. The Colts receiver was sidelined in Tuesday’s practice but was a full participant on Wednesday ahead of their big divisional showdown with the Houston Texans.

Having Hilton in the lineup would be a godsend for Jacoby Brissett and the offense as the Texans secondary is in shambles with six players out or questionable. Houston will also be giving meaningful snaps to the recently released-then-signed CB Vernon Hargreaves.

In his 16 games against the Texans over his career, Hilton has 87 catches for 1,604 yards and 10 TDs — that includes seven 100-yard games. No.1 WRs are putting up close to 80 yards per game against the Texans over the year.

If the wideout is declared active and his market opens closer to kick off, consider taking the Over on Hilton’s receiving total on any number below 81 yards.


DOLPHINS BACK TO THEIR OLD SELVES

The Miami Dolphins streak of five-straight wins against the spread is over after they got filled by the Buffalo Bills 37-20 last week. Buffalo had scored more than 21 points just twice in their last six games before the 37-point explosion. Our takeaway from that game: Miami is still a very bad football team.

On the offensive side of things, their current No.1 running back, Kalen Ballage, is averaging 1.9 yards per carry. That number is historically bad as it would be the worst mark in league history. The Dolphins offensive coordinator even put the blame on Ballage’s teammates and coaches, telling reporters that they needed to do better.

On the defensive side of the ball, Miami just sent their two starting safeties to the I.R. This will only make the league's worst passing defense even worse heading into their Sunday contest against the Cleveland Browns.

Buffalo beat the Dolphins in every quarter last week, becoming the fourth team this year to do so. Over their eight losses this year, Miami has lost 26 of 32 quarters while winning just four.

With a price of +650, sign us up for the Browns winning every quarter Sunday.


TEXANS BURNED BY PASS-CATCHING RBS

Want another Thursday night play? How about a running back who is 15th in the league in receptions amongst RBs facing the league’s worst defense at defending passes against running backs?

Indianapolis’ Nyheim Hines’ role is consistent. The third-down back sees on average of four targets a game and may have an expanded role this week with the absence of Marlon Mack.

Hines has turned 11 targets into seven catches for 54 yards over the last two weeks but will have a chance to better those numbers against the Texans who give up 64 yards passing to opposing RBs this year and let non-pass catching Mark Ingram set a season-high in receiving yards last week with 37.

We think the total might be set a little high but feel that the Over is still the play, especially with a plus matchup and RB snaps up for grabs.


EASY PICKINGS

The New Orleans Saints forced four interceptions last week against the human turnover machine better known as Jameis Winston. This week the Saints get to face the Panthers and rookie QB Kyle Allen who threw four INTs himself last week and has thrown nine picks in his last four games.

Allen has been facing serious pressure making the young QB force some throws. His nine INTs were the product of 18 sacks as the Carolina offensive line has been getting dominated in November. Things will only get worse Sunday as the Saints’ defense has the fourth-most sacks at home.

It is a juicy play but we feel confident in Allen throwing at least one interception. Take the Over on Allen’s 0.5 INTs.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


HACKY SACK

The New York Giants and the Chicago Bears have been allowing 8.4 sacks combined over the last three weeks. However, both these teams have struggled to take down opposing QBs this year as they sit in the bottom half in the league in sacks per game at nearly five takedowns combined. This last stat may give us some value in a total-sacks prop that won’t be set too high thanks to the Bears’ and Giants’ sacks per game rate.

Daniel Jones has been sacked 22 times in his last four games because the Giants have been pass-happy of late, averaging 39 passes a game since Week seven. Mitch Trubisky will have a short leash that could work in our favor. The Bears QB has been sacked nine times in his last two home games and if Mitch gives way to Chase Daniel, that could be money in the bank. The Bears’ backup was sacked twice in four dropbacks last week while getting taken down four more times in 30 pass attempts in his only other start this year.

We are 6-1 on our weekly sack plays and will be taking the Over 5.5 sacks in the Giants-Bears matchup Sunday.


SKIPPING LEG DAY

Bears’ kicker Eddy Pineiro has zero trust from his coaching staff as Matt Nagy decided to go for it on 4th and nine from their opponents 31-yard line in a 0-0 game. Over their last three games, Nagy’s Bears have attempted just 0.7 FGs.

The Giants are dead last in field goal attempts this season and are kicking a whopping one three-point attempt per game. New York’s kicker Aldrick Rosas is 8-for-10 this year with a long of just thirty-six yards.

Chicago will be breezy Sunday with winds expected in the double digits, further helping our lean on this kicking prop. Take the Under 44.5 yards longest field goal scored.


DRISKEL DRUMMING UP RUSHES

Jeff Driskel will start again for the Lions Sunday against Washington as Matthew Stafford may have to sit out the rest of the season with Detroit out of playoff contention. The word on Driskel’s rushing ability is not widely known yet but the Lions’ starter rushed for 51 yards on eight carries and had a rushing TD for good measure last week.

Driskel is not afraid to take off and run as the 26-year-old QB has averaged 4.5 carries over his seven career starts. The Washington is allowing a completion rate of 71 percent which may stop Driskel from taking off as much but we still like his rushing prospects for Sunday and will take the Over on any number below 23 yards.


TAKE THESE BROKEN WENTZ

The Philadelphia Eagles receiving core is a mess. Last week they gave 88 percent of the snaps to Jordan Mathews who had just signed two weeks ago and now Nelson Agholor appears questionable for Sunday’s game against the Seattle Seahawks.

They could have Alshon Jeffrey back this week, but this is a run-first offense and with Jordan Howard likely back this week after missing Week 11, we don’t see Carson Wentz and the offense airing things out against Seattle. The Eagles are 24th in the league in passing yards per game at 215 and 28th over their last three games at 185 yards.

We are jumping on the Under 241.5 passing yards for Carson Wentz, a number he has not eclipsed in four-straight games.


HOME FAVS LEADING THE WAY

Over the last 30 days, home favorites have been winning SU at 73 percent clip and last week they hit at 78 percent. This week, home teams are favored in nine of the 13 games. Our two favorite home favorite MLs this week are the Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots. Parlayed together, this two-teamer pays out an even +100.

New England has won 16-straight games at home and is allowing just 11 points per game at Gillette stadium this year. The offense hasn’t looked great, but this is a defense-first team that could give the Cowboys some problems as they have only beat the Redskins, the Giants and the Lions on the road this year while losing to the Jets and Saints.

Atlanta has run off two consecutive wins versus divisional opponents and picked off Kyle Allen four times last week. They also haven’t allowed a touchdown in 10 quarters of football. They could really force Bruce Arians to sit Jameis Winston if the Dirty Birds get to the Bucs’ QB early.

Take the Pats ML and Falcons ML for a +100 payout.

[Udog]

NFL Week 12 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

New England went to the effort of listing Tom Brady (elbow) as questionable for Sunday's home game against Dallas. The SuperBook isn't buying it, though, with the Patriots still 6-point favorites.

NFL Week 12 will without a doubt include Tom Brady on the field, despite a late-week head fake from the Patriots. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Among a lengthy Patriots injury list out Friday was Tom Brady’s name, noting the star quarterback was questionable with an elbow issue. New England dipped from -6.5 to -6 for its clash with visiting Dallas, but Osterman said that wasn’t due to Brady’s status. “The Patriots like to list a lot of guys questionable. We fully expect Brady to play.”

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Mike Tomlin’s troops face a skill-position shortage, as wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and running back James Conner (shoulder) will sit out at Cincinnati. “Those were both expected, but once it became 100 percent known, the line dropped a half-point.” The Steelers are still -6.5 (-120) against the winless Bengals.

CLEVELAND BROWNS: Along with the suspensions of Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi for their roles in last week’s brawl against Pittsburgh, fellow defensive lineman Olivier Vernon (knee) is also out against visiting Miami. But Osterman said that didn’t impact the line, which has been at Browns -10.5 almost all week.

ATLANTA FALCONS: Devonta Freeman (foot) won’t play at home against Tampa Bay, but it’s another instance of an expected absence and had no impact on the line. Atlanta is laying 3.5.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Tight end George Kittle (knee/ankle) missed the last two games and is questionable Sunday against visiting Green Bay. If Kittle plays, “It’s maybe a 10-cent move. We would go from -3.5 (even) to -3.5 (-110).” However, wideouts Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) are also questionable. “If more than one of those three is out, I could see a half-point move.”

DETROIT LIONS: QB Matthew Stafford (hip/back) will miss his third straight game, but Jeff Driskel starting was baked into the cake from the moment the Lions were posted -3.5 at Washington. The SuperBook briefly went to -3, but has been at -3.5 since Monday morning.

Weather Watch

OAKLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: Pretty much every game in the Northeast on Sunday is looking at rain. In this instance, there’s a 100 percent chance of precipitation at MetLife Stadium. “The total has come down 1.5 points because of the rain forecast.” The total was at 46.5 Friday.

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: Similar story, with a 90 percent chance of rain in Philly, prompting The SuperBook to drop the total from 49 to 48.

DALLAS AT NEW ENGLAND: Again, if it’s in the Northeast, it’s probably going to see rain, with a 100 percent chance of precipitation on Sunday. The total adjusted down 1.5 points to 44.5.

MIAMI AT CLEVELAND: It could be a little tough sledding for the warm-weather Dolphins, with temperatures in the low-40s and winds at 15 mph, but that’s not swaying oddsmakers. “No effect from the weather.” Rather, the total is up 1 point to 45.5 due to public money on the Over.

DETROIT AT WASHINGTON: This game might dodge the downpours expected throughout the Northeast, but some pregame rain could hit FedEx Field. “I would expect a small move if the field is affected, but most likely no move.”

Pros vs. Joes

DENVER AT BUFFALO: After covering at Minnesota last week, the Broncos are again drawing sharp action. “Pros on the Broncos, public on the Bills.” Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite.

OAKLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: The aforementioned weather could help keep this game tight, with the Raiders laying 3. Sharp play is on the short home ‘dog, while the public is on Oakland.

GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO: “Pros are on the 49ers, and the public is on the Packers,” Osterman said of the Sunday night game. San Francisco opened -3.5, reached -4, dipped to -3, then got back to -3.5.

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: The Eagles opened -2.5, but Seahawks money took the line to Philly -1. “Pros are on the Eagles, and the public is on the Seahawks. The line moved in favor of the public. A lot of ‘Hawks money coming in.”

BALTIMORE AT LOS ANGELES: The Ravens opened -2.5, briefly got to -3.5 Monday, then spent the rest of the week at -3. “The public is all over the Ravens. The pros are on the Rams.”

Reverse Line Moves

DENVER AT BUFFALO: The Bills dropped from -4.5 to -3.5, but they are taking the bulk of the action, with sharp play on Denver driving the number down.

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 12
Joe Williams

It's Week 12 of the National Football League regular season, as we're rounding the corner and heading for home. This is the final week of bye weeks for teams, and we'll have Thanksgiving next week with three Thursday battles. The Week 12 schedule started off with an AFC South defensive slog, as the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans battle saw the total cash 'under' tickets

What will we see this week, as the books look to bounce back after the public cashed big in Week 11.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 11 7-7 5-9 6-8

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 79-82-1 76-85-1 72-86-4

The totals ended up going 7-7 last week, with the 'under' remaining slightly ahead (82-79-1) for the season. It looked like the 'over' was going to dominate the weekend early on, but the late-game window saw the 'under' go 2-1, with the Sunday night and Monday night games also going well under.

The 'under' went 9-5 in the first half and bettors chasing 'over' tickets came up short as the low side produced an 8-6 mark in the second-half. On the season, here are the overall numbers for both the first-half (76-85-1) and second-half (72-86-4).

Division Bell

In the seven divisional battles in Week 11, the slight edge went to the 'over' - although the highly-anticipated AFC West showdown in Mexico City on Monday night between the Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Chargers at Estadio Azteca cashed low. The under is now 29-24 (54.7%) in divisional games this season, which includes this past Thursday's result between the Colts and Texans.

Divisional Game Results Week 11
Cleveland at Pittsburgh Under (41.5) Cleveland 21, Pittsburgh 7
New Orleans at Tampa Bay Over (50.5) New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 17
Atlanta at Carolina Under (49) Atlanta 29, Carolina 3
Jacksonville at Indianapolis Over (42) Indianapolis 33, Jacksonville 13
Buffalo at Miami Over (41.5) Buffalo 37, Miami 20
Arizona at San Francisco Over (44) San Francisco 36, Arizona 26
Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers Under (53) Kansas City 24, L.A. Chargers 17

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 12 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Green Bay at San Francisco (SNF): 44 to 48
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: 54 ½ to 51 ½
Baltimore at L.A. Rams (MNF): 49 to 46 ½
Carolina at New Orleans: 49 to 51 ½
Dallas at New England: 42 to 40
Denver at Buffalo: 38 ½ to 40 ½
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: 38 ½ to 40 ½
Seattle at Philadelphia: 38 ½ to 40 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 12 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Under 87%
Denver at Buffalo: Over 83%
Detroit at Washington: Under 80%
Miami at Cleveland: Over 77%
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Over 75%
N.Y. Giants at Chicago: Under 70%
Oakland at N.Y. Jets: Over 67%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (66 percent) in the Seattle at Philadelphia matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Jacksonville at Tennessee (63 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 12

Week 11 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 4-3 23-28
NFC vs. NFC 1-1 18-17
AFC vs. AFC 0-2 15-14-1
AFC vs. NFC 2-1 24-22

Other Week 12 Action

Denver at Buffalo: The lowest total on the board will feature a little Allen-on-Allen crime. Quarterback Brandon Allen starts for the Broncos, while QB Josh Allen is the man in Buffalo, no relation. The Broncos have hit the 'under' in six of 10 games overall, and 3-2 in five games on the road. They're just 27th in the NFL with 17.2 points per game on offense, while ranking eighth in the NFL with 19.7 points per game allowed. They're averaging just 19.6 PPG on the road in five games, slightly higher than their overall mark. The Bills were the last team to hit an 'over', as the 'under' cashed in their first five. The under is just 3-2 in their past five games, but two of those games were high-scoring offensive performances against the lowly Dolphins. In the other three games against Philly, Washington and Cleveland during that five-game span, the offense is sputtering, averaging just 17.7 PPG.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Steelers blasted the Bengals 27-3 back in Week 4 on Monday Night Football, as the 'under' easily connected in that game. For the Bengals, the 'over' is actually 3-1 in their four home games, although they have scored just 17, 23, 17 and 13. It's their defense which has been trampled at Paul Brown Stadium, yielding 41, 26, 27 and 49. The Steelers have had their issues on the road this season, and the 'under' is actually a perfect 4-0 away from the Steel City. They scored just three points in Week 1 at New England, and seven last time out on Thursday in Cleveland. They'll be without center Maurkice Pouncey due to suspension from that Browns brawl in Week 11, so will that affect the offense? Six of the last eight meetings in this series have gone 'under.'

N.Y. Giants at Chicago: The Giants have struggled offensively with 322.2 total yards per game, ranking 24th, and they're a rather middling 22nd with 20.3 PPG. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 on the road this season for the G-Men, averaging 23.2 PPG, and the Giants have gone over in each of their past three games. Their defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, allowing 27 or more point in six consecutive outings. Will that mean Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky finally rolls up big offensive numbers against someone? The 'under' has hit in four straight for Chicago, as they're averaging 14.3 PPG during that four-game span. Their biggest production was a 20-point outburst in a win against the Lions at home, which is where they'll be Sunday. The Bears have posted 25, 16 and 20 in their past three at home, while allowing an average of 22.0 PPG in the past three at Soldier Field.

Oakland at N.Y. Jets: The Raiders rank 23rd in the NFL in total yards allowed at 370.0, and they're a dismal 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed at 264.1. It could be the perfect storm for Jets QB Sam Darnold, who had a career-high four touchdown strikes last week in Washington. In their four road games this season the Raiders have hit the 'over' three times, and they have posted at least 24 points in each of the past three. The defense is surrendering 31.8 PPG in their four games away from home, giving up at least 24 points in each of those games. The Jets have looked like a functional offense in the past two weeks, posting 34 points in each game, two wins. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four, and 5-1 in the past six. In the past four games at home New York is allowing an average of 26.3 PPG.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The Falcons have picked up victories in their past two outings, both divisional games, and it's their surprising defense which has led the mini resurgence. They're averaging 27.5 PPG in the two-game winning streak while the defense has only coughed up just four field goals. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four overall for the Falcons, too, all against NFC opponents. For the Buccaneers, they're seventh in total yards (380.4) per game while posting 27.7 PPG to rank sixth in the NFL. They're allowing 371.8 total yards per game to rank 24th, and they're still dead-last in the NFL with 31.3 PPG. The Bucs have coughed up 27 or more points in eight straight games, and the 'over' has hit in each of those outings, the longest 'over' streak in the league so far this season. The 'over' is 5-1 in the past six meetings in this series, and 5-1 in the past six battles in Atlanta, too.

Detroit at Washington: The Lions declared QB Matthew Stafford (back) out for Sunday due to tiny fractures in his lower back, so QB Jeff Driskel makes another start. The offense didn't skip a beat last week in a 35-27 loss against the Cowboys at Ford Field, and they should be able to gain plenty of yards against a Redskins defense allowing 25.3 PPG, ranking 22nd in the NFL. The 'Skins allowed 34 to the Jets last week, and tied for their most points scored (17) since Week 2. It was their first 'over' results, snapping a 6-0 under run. The 'over' is actually 3-2 for the Redskins at home, with the defense yielding 31, 31, 33, 9 (in the mud and rain) and 34. We'll see if the Lions can add to their misery, and the conditions will be clear on Sunday.

Seattle at Philadelphia: The public has been pushing the total down in the Seattle-Philly battle on Sunday. Seattle plays its fourth out of five games in the Eastern Time Zone. The travel hasn't seemed to affect their offense, as they have scored 28, 32 and 27 in their previous three trips east, going 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS. They have allowed 26, 28 and 20 in those games, too. Meanwhile, Philly had hit the 'under' in each of their past three home games after the 'over' cashed in the first two at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles defense has come to play in the past three at home, allowing just 6, 14 and 17, or an average of 12.3 PPG during the span. The Seahawks are listed as underdogs for the fourth time this season, and they're 3-0 SU/ATS in those three games while the 'over' has connected in each of the outings.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: The Jaguars were trampled on the road last week in Indy, falling 33-13 despite the fact they got QB Nick Foles back from injury. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five games against divisional foes for the Jags, but that lone over was last week. These teams met in Week 3 from Jacksonville, a 20-7 win by the Jags. However, there isn't much to glean from that matchup since the starting quarterbacks, Gardner Minshew and Marcus Mariota are now the backups. Since taking over for Mariota, QB Ryan Tannehill has helped the Titans post 23, 27, 20 and 35, hitting the 'over' in all four games. The defense is allowing 26.3 PPG during the span, giving up 20, 23, 30 and 32. The 'over' is 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings in Nashville. The Titans are playing with rest and Mike Vrabel's team posted a 28-14 road win over Dallas last season off the bye, his first situation coaching with a break.

Dallas at New England: The Cowboys hit the road for Foxboro, and it's a big measuring stick game. Dallas is No. 1 in total offensive yards per game (444.6), passing yards per game (312.7) and fourth in points scored (28.6). As such, the over is 3-0 in the past three, and 5-1 in the past six games overall for the Cowboys. The Patriots defense ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed (249.9) and points allowed (10.8). In their lone loss in Baltimore, they allowed 37 points on the road in Week 9. However, at home the Patriots have yielded 3, 14, 14 and 13, with the offense actually allowed 14 of those points on two defensive touchdowns by the Jets. The New England defense has really allowed just 7.5 PPG in four home games, so the Cowboys have their hands full. In three games against the NFC East, New England is allowing 10.3 PPG, hitting the 'under' in two of those outings.

Heavy Expectations

There are two games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 12, with the home team listed as favorites in each of them. The totals range from 46 to 46 ½ and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Miami at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. ET): The Thursday Night system is just 6-4 (60%) so far. The team playing at home in the previous 10 TNF games has hit the 'over' in six over in their next game. The Browns were the home in 'Helmetgate', or whatever you want to call it, so they're next up to keep the TNF system going. The Dolphins find themselves in a familiar spot this season, a double-digit underdog. It's the seventh time they're an underdog of 10 or more points, and the 'under' is 5-1 in those six games. And after a 2-1 'over' start at FirstEnergy Stadium in the first three, the Browns have hit the 'under' in each of the past two.

Carolina at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET): The honeymoon is over with QB Kyle Allen...or it's actually not 'over', but 'under'. The Panthers offense is averaging just 9.5 PPG over the past two, and they have 13, 30, 16 and 3 across their 1-3 SU/ATS run in the past four games, hitting the under three times during the span. The Saints bounced back with 34 points in Tampa last week, hitting the 'over' for the second time in three NFC South games. The Saints defense ranks sixth in total yards allowed (318.3) and third in rushing yards allowed (85.3), while allowing 19.9 PPG to rank 12th in the NFL. At home, the 'under' is 3-2 in five games in the Superdome. As a double-digit favorite, the Saints have hit the 'under' in both outings. Make a note that Allen's first career start came at New Orleans last season in Week 17 and the Panthers captured a 33-14 road win.

Under the Lights

Green Bay at San Francisco (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Packers hit the road for Levi's Stadium, and the Pack hope their trip to the West Coast goes better than their last visit. They fell 26-11 in Week 10 againts the Chargers, and it would have been a season low had they not scored a late touchdown with a two-point conversion. It's a rarity that the Packers are underdogs. They're 2-0 SU/ATS in those two previous outings this season, with the over/under splitting 1-1. For the 49ers, they're allowing 20, 3, 13, 27 and 26 at home, with the 'over' going 3-0 in the past three at home, and 4-0 in the past four overall. The defense has allowed 25 or more points in three straight, showing some chinks in the armor.

Baltimore at L.A. Rams (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Rams offense has struggled, posting a rather middling 366.5 total yards per game on offense to rank 13th, and they're 11th with 24.3 PPG scored. Defensively, they rank fifth in the NFL with just 89.1 rushing yards per game allowed, but it's a whole other animal trying to shut down QB Lamar Jackson. The Rams are underdogs for just the second time this season, and the 'over' cashed in that only previous outing. Los Angeles has had a power outage on offense lately, posting just 12 and 17 in the past two against the Steelers and Bears, whole allowing just 11 PPG across the past four. The 'under' has hit in five in a row for Los Angeles.

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 12
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Saints are 11-0 ATS (14.09 ppg) since Sep 24, 2017 after a game in which they had zero turnovers.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-11.95 ppg) since Dec 08, 2016 on the road coming off a win.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Packers are 7-0 ATS (8.07 ppg) since Jan 15, 2017 coming off a home game where Davante Adams had at least a 30 yard reception.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Broncos are 11-0-1 OU (11.88 ppg) since Dec 28, 2008 as a road dog after a game in which they scored more field goals than touchdowns.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Giants are 0-10 OU (-13.35 ppg) since Sep 20, 2012 off a game as a favorite that went over the total by at least seven points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Bears are 0-18 OU (-9.92 ppg) vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a double-digit loss as a dog in which they scored ten-plus points fewer than their seasonto-date average and had less than 34 minutes of possession time.

[Udog]

SNF - Packers at 49ers
Matt Blunt

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

It was nice to get back in the win column with the L.A. Rams covering the number against Chicago last Sunday night. It wasn't the prettiest of games by any means as neither offense really did much of anything in the 17-7 final, but ATS wins are ATS wins no matter how you get them.

This week the SNF team gets a potential NFC Championship preview-type game with Green Bay in San Francisco to take on the 49ers. You've got QB Aaron Rodgers back in his home state of California, and two teams who could end up with home field advantage through the playoffs based on winning this game.

With the stakes surrounding this game, there will likely be no shortage of opinions (or action) as the week goes on for such a big game, as both teams are likely to use it as a nice measuring stick type game for them as we head to December. But the question really is, can Green Bay go into San Francisco and knock off this 49ers team that's been spectacular at home.

San Fran owns a +77 point differential at home, largely in part to their 2nd ranked defense this year in both opponent yards allowed per game and opponent yards allowed per play. That's what Aaron Rodgers and company have to contend with, and given that the last time Green Bay was in California – two weeks ago vs LA Chargers – it was an utter debacle offensively, will history repeat? I mean, SF has highly talented pass rushers too and that was what led the Chargers to such much success that day.

Total Talk

After opening up at 45.5 late on Sunday, this total has really seen nothing but 'over' support since then. As of this writing, it's currently sitting at 47.5 juiced to the 'over', and given the profile of these two teams, it's easy to want to trust both offenses. Both teams currently sit in the Top 10 in the league – SF (2nd) and GB (9th) – in points per game with 29.5 and 25 respectively, that the opening total here was probably a touch too low. But all the value from that number has long been extracted, and the number has held pretty steady at 47.5 since Wednesday morning.

At 47.5, the number does appear to be about where it should be. Yes, the combined average point totals for these two teams puts this game close to 55 total points scored, but I would expect both sides to be looking to be strong defensively from the get-go. The stakes of the game lend themselves to that notion, as even though both teams would likely say they are fine with getting in a 34-31 type game, they wouldn't prefer it.

San Francisco's 4-0 O/U run coming into this game would suggest that 'over' is the way to look, especially with the defense allowing 25+ in three straight games. But the Packers come in off of two straight 'unders' themselves where the total score didn't eclipse 40 points can't be dismissed either. Put the entire situation of this game together, and passing on this total now appears to be the best course of action.

Side Spiel

San Francisco has been installed as the generic -3 home favorite for this game and that's where the number has stayed all week. The price has fluctuated on the 49ers, but I wouldn't expect this number to move much. That's because at -2.5 you are likely to see plenty of SF money hit the board, while at +3.5 there would likely be Green Bay money flooding in. Just another example of how important it is to bet numbers and bet teams. Yet, to me, this is a line that's much better to be approached from a spot betting perspective, and that spot does favor the Packers.

Actually, it's more of a spot that's against the 49ers in that fading a team after three straight division games is something that makes a lot of sense. Generally speaking, teams are going to naturally have a 'let down' after nearly a month of intense divisional action, but given that it is 8-2 SU Green Bay on the other side of the field, a complete flat effort from the 49ers isn't likely. But even just a bit flat early could have San Francisco chasing this game the entire way, and if that's the case, I'm not sure the 49ers will last.

This is essentially the fourth straight game where high stress/pressure are involved for the 49ers, and eventually every team needs a mental rest spot. There was the closer then expected game at Arizona on Halloween, followed by the OT loss to Seattle, and then last week's wild comeback against that same Cardinals team, with road games at Baltimore and at New Orleans on tap for the 49ers, there is going to be one of those 'dud' games for them in one of those three in my opinion, and teams do tend to be more complacent about things when at home. Whether it's physical or the mental prep side of things for the 49ers, that's not good for a team that's already spent the past three weeks struggling to hold on (or claim) outright victories.

At the same time, you know Rodgers would love to come 'home' to the Bay area and light up a 9-1 49ers team. San Francisco is part of the “new guard” in 2019 as it's their first time winning games in a few years, whereas the Packers have been perennial contenders the entire Rodgers era. This win probably means a bit more to Rodgers and company who want to prove they are just as good as the best, and home field advantage at Lambeau Field in January is always a huge edge.

I would figure that the Packers learned from their mistakes going to L.A. a few weeks ago (late travel time, bad sleep schedules, personal schedules etc) and be much better from the opening kickoff here. Obviously a later start helps that play out, and if they can keep San Fran's pass rushers in check with a serviceable running attack, it's not like Rodgers isn't capable of tearing apart this 49ers secondary.

Final Thoughts

A 0-2-1 ATS record combined with all 'overs' in those games for the 49ers coming into this week is a sign to me that they are a team that's playing with too much fire right now. Defensively they are getting hurt, offensively they are letting teams hang around, and they are just making more mistakes overall right now then they were earlier in the year. It didn't cost them wins in those two games vs Arizona and a rookie head coach/rookie QB combo, but it will probably cost them a win this week vs a rookie head coach/Hall-of-Fame QB.

Green Bay is in just as tight a divisional race themselves as the 49ers are in the NFC West, and given how the perception around the Packers 8-2 SU record still has an aura of being rather 'lucky' – they were gifted calls vs Detroit on MNF, Oakland coughed up what was a close game with GB at half, they caught KC without Mahomes, McCaffrey might have been in the end zone last week etc etc – they've arguably got more to prove with a win here.

I believe the Packers get that win here, and extend their 5-0 ATS run against winning teams to six straight covers.

Best Bet: Green Bay +3

[Udog]

By: Josh Inglis


ALVIN & BOMBS

Atlanta’s Calvin Ridley had his best game as a pro last week. The Falcons’ wideout caught all eight of his targets for 143 yards for six first downs, giving Matt Ryan a 158.3 passing rating when targeted. This was all against the league’s sixth-best pass DVOA defense. This week, Ridley sets his sights on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their 30th-ranked pass defense.

With tight end Austin Hooper out again this week and the Falcons down to their No.3 running back who carried 15 times for 30 yards against a bottom-five run defense in Week 11, there is no reason to think Ridley can’t top his yardage totals this week.

We are taking the Over on Ridley’s receiving yards at 68.5 as Tampa Bay is giving up 73 yards to teams’ WR2 this year.


PASS ME A BALL, MR. JONES

Covers’ own Jason Logan is backing the Giants as 6-point underdogs against the Chicago Bears this week. We can get behind that as the Chicago offense is nonexistent and six points is a lot for a unit that has topped 21 points once since Week 4. That doesn’t mean that Daniel Jones has to succeed by any means, though.

The Giants QB has faced four bottom-12 pass defenses in consecutive weeks and will do battle with Chicago's No.6 squad on Sunday. Jones has faced just two top-15 pass defenses this year and didn’t top 200 yards passing in either of them. It also may be difficult for Jones to throw the ball when he is turning it over at such an alarming rate. The rookie may only have two interceptions since Week 7, but he has fumbled ten times in his last four games and leads the league in that category this year.

Adding injury to insult, Jones won’t have the services of his top-two tight ends while Sterling Shepard suiting up could affect the QB’s chemistry with slot receiver Golden Tate and Darius Slayton.

We are grabbing the Under 226.5 passing yards on Daniel Jones but also think there is good value in his Under 0.5 INTs at +170, just don’t bet on him not fumbling.


THE DRIVE FOR 0-16

The Cincinnati Bengals’ team total for their Sunday game against the Pittsburgh Steelers and their No.3 DVOA defense sits at a laughable 14.5 points. The sad thing is that we don’t see Ryan Finley and his banged-up receiving core scoring more than two TDs against Pittsburgh.

The Steelers have allowed no more than 14 points in their three games this year to bottom-10 DVOA offenses. One of those teams was the Bengals who put up three points in Week 4. On top of that, Cincy could be facing a team with serious motivation after last week’s drama.

The road to 0-16 will continue into Week 13 as even Mason Rudolph will be able to move the ball against a team allowing over 10 yards per pass attempt in their last three weeks. Take the Bengals team total 14.5 before it slips past a key number closer to kick off.


SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN

Checking the rotowire one can’t help but notice all the San Francisco 49ers’ skill players popping up. For those not constantly refreshing team updates, TE George Kittle, WRs Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders, RB Matt Breida and kicker Robbie Gould are all doubtful or questionable ahead of their big Sunday night tilt versus the Packers.

We see the 49ers trying to establish the run and control the clock with all the injuries, something they do well as they sit second in the league at nearly 34 minutes in time of possession. Green Bay should also play to their strength and their opponent’s weakness and run the ball. The Packers are currently gaining 5.1 yards per rush attempt over their last three while San Fran has the fifth-worst yards per rush attempt against at 5.3 yards.

With the possibility of key offensive players sitting out and both teams looking to control the clock, we are hitting the San Fran team total Under 26.5 which we feel is 2-3 points too high.

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 12
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Seahawks at Eagles (-1, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
Only two teams in the NFL have yet to lose a road game this season and both hail from the NFC West. One is San Francisco, who plays Green Bay in a crucial NFC showdown on Sunday night. The other handed the 49ers their first loss of the season back in a Week 10 overtime thriller at Levi’s Stadium. The Seahawks (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) outlasted the Niners two weeks ago to improve to 5-0 away from CenturyLink Field, while coming off the bye last week. Seattle has lived on the edge all season by winning seven games by seven points or less, including the last two against San Francisco and Tampa Bay in overtime.

Seattle travels to the Eastern Time Zone for the fourth time this season (3-0) to face Philadelphia as the Eagles (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) try to rebound from a 17-10 home defeat to New England. The Eagles suffered their first home loss since Week 3 against the Lions as Philadelphia limited New England to three field goals before allowing the go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter. Philadelphia’s defense has performed well of late by yielding 44 points in the past three games since getting torched by Dallas for 37 points in a Week 7 blowout loss.

Although Seattle is an extremely short underdog, the Seahawks have covered nine consecutive times when receiving points dating back to last season. Seattle has had its way with Philadelphia in the last few meetings by posting a 4-0 SU/ATS record since 2011. The Seahawks topped the Eagles, 24-10 as 3 ½-point home underdogs in the most recent matchup in 2017.

Best Bet: Eagles 20, Seahawks 17

Raiders (-3, 46) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST
This matchup on paper doesn’t look too thrilling, but both these AFC squads have caught fire of late. Oakland (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) heads east after sweeping a three-game homestand against Detroit, Los Angeles, and Cincinnati. The Raiders have gone from hoping to finish around .500 to being a serious threat to qualify for the postseason. Although Oakland failed to cash as hefty 13-point favorites last week against winless Cincinnati, the Raiders managed a 17-10 triumph as they allowed their fewest points in a game this season.

The Jets (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) have risen from the ashes to capture back-to-back wins over the Giants and Redskins and although that may not be impressive, New York is trying to salvage its season. Quarterback Sam Darnold threw four touchdown passes in last Sunday’s 34-17 rout of the Redskins to help the Jets win their third game against an NFC East foe. Now, New York has to mix in some wins against its own conference, as the Jets have sailed OVER the total in five of six games since last season as a home underdog when Darnold starts.

The Raiders are listed as a road favorite for the first time since a 34-3 drubbing at the hands of the 49ers last season. Since Jon Gruden came back to the Raiders’ sidelines last season, the Silver and Black has struggled on the road off a win by going 0-5 in this situation. The Jets have dropped the last two meetings with the Raiders in 2015 and 2017 (both in Oakland), while New York grabbed an opening week victory in the last matchup at Met Life Stadium in 2014.

Best Bet: Raiders 24, Jets 21

Cowboys at Patriots (-6, 45 ½) – 4:25 PM EST
A pair of first-place teams hook up in the showcase afternoon battle in the NFL at Gillette Stadium. Dallas (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) is listed as an underdog for the first time this season as the Cowboys held off the Lions, 35-27 to barely cash as 7 ½-point road favorites. The Cowboys improved to 6-0 this season when scoring at least 31 points, led by Dak Prescott’s 444 yards passing and three touchdown tosses. Dallas is still looking to beat a team with a winning record as all six victories have come against teams entering this week at .500 or below.

The Patriots (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) rebounded from their first loss of the season against the Ravens by holding off the Eagles last week, 17-10 as 4 ½-point road favorites. For the ninth time this season, New England held an opponent to less than 14 points and won in spite of no touchdown passes from Tom Brady for the third time this season. Brady also threw for his second-fewest yards this season (216), but the Patriots are riding a seven-game winning streak against NFC opponents since getting tripped up Detroit last September.

Dallas has cashed the OVER in five of the past six games, while seeking its first victory when scoring less than 30 points (0-4). The Cowboys went 6-2 ATS last season in the underdog role, while facing New England for the first time since a 30-6 home defeat to the Patriots as eight-point underdogs in 2015.

Best Bet: Patriots 27, Cowboys 17

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 40 – Giants at Bears

Both these teams are struggling at the moment as New York has lost six consecutive games, while Chicago is 1-5 in its past six contests. The Giants’ defense has been torched of late by allowing 27 points or more in each of the previous six games, while hitting the OVER in three straight. The Bears’ offense may not be great, but this can be their opportunity to finally bust out as Chicago has gone 4-1 to the UNDER at Soldier Field. Even though the scoring numbers may not reflect it, the Bears have been outgained from a yardage standpoint in five of the last six games.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Saints rebounded from an ugly loss to the Falcons two weeks ago by cruising past the Buccaneers last Sunday, 34-17. The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas releases early lines about 12 days ahead of time and put out New Orleans -7 against Carolina on November 12. That number has jumped to 9 ½ after the Panthers were blown out by the Falcons at home last week. New Orleans has covered the spread in each of its last seven victories, while Carolina has lost each of its past two road contests at San Francisco and Green Bay.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Bills own a 7-3 record, while the Broncos head to western New York with a 3-7 mark. Yet, Buffalo enters Sunday’s contest as a four-point favorite even though the Bills have not lost a game to a team with a losing record this season. The Broncos squandered a 20-0 lead in last week’s 27-23 defeat to the Vikings, but Denver cashed as 10-point underdogs. Denver improved to 5-1 ATS the last six games, including three consecutive covers on the road.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Lions haven’t won only one game since a 2-0-1 start as Detroit is listed as a short road favorite at Washington. The only positive for the Lions (besides facing a 1-9 team) is they have fared well the last few seasons in the game prior to Thanksgiving. Detroit has won four consecutive games before taking the gridiron at Ford Field for its annual Turkey Day matchup, as the Lions face the Bears this Thursday.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 12
November 24, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Dolphins at Browns (-10.5/45), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Browns play only one more team that enters Week 12 action above .500 between now and the end of the regular season, so talk of running the table isn’t evidence Baker Mayfield has gone mad and should be committed. It’s feasible, albeit unlikely, but considering the winless are on tap twice, certainly possible. Cleveland is looking for just its second three-game winning streak since 2014 as it attempts to handle business as a double-digit favorite for the first time in 12 years and only the second time since 1999. The last time we saw the Browns, Myles Garrett was swinging a helmet at Pittsburgh’s Mason Rudolph following a 21-7 Thursday night triumph. The former No. 1 pick won’t play again until next season at the earliest, so Cleveland will need to be more creative in generating pressure since it can no longer rely on one of the most talented guys on the field simply beating his man one-on-one. Miami’s Ryan Fitzpatrick was sacked seven times last week in Buffalo, so the Dolphins will make a good guinea pig for defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, who will also be without DT Larry Ogunjobi.

Miami is looking for more from Kalen Ballage at running back as he gets his crack at handling the position. Speedy receivers Jakeem Grant and Albert Wilson will both be available, so there should be an opportunity to challenge a shorthanded Browns’ defense that has also ruled out Miami native Olivier Vernon up front. Fitzpatrick missed practice time due to right shoulder and forearm discomfort, so the possibility exists you may have to rely on Josh Rosen at some point if you’re taking points here. Gusty winds should be a part of the equation, but former Dolphins’ WR Jarvis Landry and his pal Odell Beckham, Jr. are both expected to play despite appearing on the injury report with nagging ailments. Tight end David Njoku will miss at least one more week after not being activated from IR with his wrist not ready.

Broncos at Bills (-4/37), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Denver dominated Minnesota early before collapsing and ultimately falling short, but first-year coach Vic Fangio has guys playing hard for him despite the season not going as expected and the group already out of playoff contention after blowing a 20-0 halftime lead. The Broncos are playing their second road game of four in a five-week span, so surviving between now and mid-December will likely be as mentally taxing as it will be physically, particularly if the losses keep piling up. Brandon Allen beat the Browns in his debut but contributed to last week’s loss by completing just 44 percent of his passes (17-for-39). He missed rookie tight end Noah Fant in the end zone on the game’s final play despite having him open, and that throw would’ve gone a long way in changing what the past week would’ve been like. It would appear that we’ll see second-round pick Drew Lock sooner than later, but Allen remains the starter and will lead his team into a Buffalo in an underdog role with Fant again looking to build on his recent progress, coming in tops among rookie tight ends with 27 catches for 360 yards.

The Bills have seen corner Kevin Johnson emerge to share snaps with Levi Wallace next to Tre-Davious White, so the Broncos will have their work cut out for them moving the ball effectively through the air. WR Tim Patrick has been cleared to play after entering Sunday questionable with a shoulder injury. RB Phillip Lindsay should get a lot of work despite a sore wrist. Buffalo is 5-1 SU as a favorite this season, covering on three occasions. Josh Allen has been one of the NFL’s top dual-threat quarterbacks, which should serve the offense well since wind gusts of over 20 miles per hour are expected to come into play on a chilly day. Nose tackle Mike Purcell has been cleared for the Broncos, so the key to their improved run defense is a go despite a rib injury suffered early last week.

Steelers (-6.5/37.5) at Bengals, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: If Cincinnati is going to win a game this season, this is as good a shot as any, which is saying something since games against the Jets and Dolphins remain. Rookie Ryan Finley has struggled and gets another chance to impress at home after the entire team was squashed by Baltimore two weeks ago. Strictly talking upset, Pittsburgh is vulnerable due to the absence of center Maurkice Pouncey, suspended for his role in the Garrett-Rudolph incident. Running back James Conner is out again, as is top wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster, who was dealing with a concussion and an injured knee. WR Diontae Johnson will be available and teams with James Washington as Rudolph’s top targets. RB Jaylen Samuels should be in for a heavy workload.

The Bengals expect to get a huge boost with left tackle Cordy Glenn back and making his debut after being sidelined with concussion issues the past few months. When he’s seen the field, he’s been an asset, but it remains to be seen whether he can find a rhythm with the lights on after such a lengthy layoff. Talented WR Auden Tate is also expected back from concussion symptoms, giving Finley another key target to alongside Tyler Boyd and his tight ends. RB Joe Mixon has been productive and the offensive line should be better with Glenn in the mix, so a Pittsburgh defense that has keyed the team’s resurgence thanks to the addition of safety Minkah Fitzgerald will have to step up to help make up for the team’s offensive absences. Considering how much Finley has struggled, it’s entirely possible Pittsburgh can outscore Cincinnati’s offense by itself. Finley is 1-for-6 on passes of 20 or more yards. Temperatures will be in the low 40s as rain that had been in the area has cleared out.

Giants at Bears (-6/41), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Mitch Trubisky will start after being pulled late in last week’s 17-7 loss to the Rams with a hip pointer. He threw the ball well Thursday and won’t have to deal with awful weather conditions, so there really will be no excuse if he struggles against a vulnerable New York secondary. There will be over 60,000 fans in place hoping to see progress and expressing their opinions if he continues to struggle, so this could certainly turn into a situation where playing at home works against you. Backup Chase Daniel doesn’t want to be the most popular guy in the building come second quarter, but there’s a chance that ends up the case.

The Giants come into on a six-game losing streak but did have a bye week that allowed WR Sterling Shepard (concussion) to get back in the mix for this one, but tight ends Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison are both out. Untested Scott Simonson and rookie Kaden Smith will be called upon but we may see more four-receiver sets considering the weather won’t be a factor. Daniel Jones had a big day against the Jets in a 34-27 loss prior to the bye week but will face one of the toughest defenses he’s seen all season. Chicago has surrendered just 17.4 points per game, second in the NFC and have been disruptive despite sack numbers being down. This game certainly looks likely it will come down to what quarterback can be most productive while eliminating mistakes. Saquon Barkley says he’s feeling much better and expects to be more of a factor than he’s been in recent weeks.

Raiders (-3/45.5) at Jets, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: After playing three consecutive games in Oakland, the Raiders go back on the road for the first time since Oct. 27. They’ve handled business at home in a favorite’s role over the Lions, Chargers and Bengals, which isn’t exactly murderer’s row. The Jets aren’t either, but have posted 34 points in back-to-back wins over the Redskins and Giants, two of the worst teams in football. Adding to this interesting mix will be inclement weather since heavy rain is expected to play as large a role as starting QBs Derek Carr and Sam Darnold. Wet, windy conditions will be tough for both teams to navigate, but Carr has a history of really struggling with the elements so he’ll need Josh Jacobs to make headway against the NFL’s top-ranked run defense.

Panthers at Saints (-10/46), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Christian McCaffrey has enjoyed a single victory in his four matchups with the Saints and he’s amassed just 103 yards on 29 carries and only found the end zone once. The Saints will likely key on Carolina’s primary weapon, so Kyle Allen will need to find ways to bounce back from a pair of rough efforts as the team has produced 10.6 points in losses to the 49ers, Packers and Falcons over the past month. Allen’s chore of moving the ball against the New Orleans defense gets a little easier with word coming down that corner Marshon Lattimore is going to sit this one out with a hamstring injury. He should have tackles Dennis Daley and Greg Little available too, but will have to deal with the loudest road atmosphere he’ll have seen to date in the Superdome.

Drew Brees got back on track after his post-bye setback against the Falcons but against won’t have one of his top offensive linemen available with guard Andrus Peat also out. We’ll get a great individual matchup pitting Alvin Kamara against Luke Kuechly. Judging by how often he got the ball against Tampa Bay last week, we should see Kamara get even more touches as he looks to pad a TD count that stands at just two after he found the end zone 32 times in his first two seasons. He wasn’t available for New Orleans’ lone loss to Carolina over the past two season and has found the end zone three times in as many games, racking up 371 yards.

Seahawks at Eagles (-1/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Philadelphia comes off a disappointing offensive effort against the Patriots and now find themselves tasked with staying within striking distance of Dallas so that it can catch them in Week 16 when the teams square off at Lincoln Financial Field. Considering the friendly schedule ahead, pulling off its first victory over Seattle since 2008 would go a long way in ensuring that will be the case for Philly, which is also attempting to avoid slipping under .500. The Eagles are just 3-2 at home, so making sure that the Linc is again the fortress it has been will dictate the team’s success the rest of the way.

The Seahawks are perfect on the road through five outings and look like a lock to make the postseason. They’ve got a shot to finish as the No. 1 overall seed if they’re able to overcome the 49ers. Coming off a bye week, Pete Carroll will have a great defensive game plan in place, but may be hindered by the absence of DE Jadeveon Clowney if he’s not able to play after seeing a specialist for nagging knee and hip ailments. New safety Quandre Diggs has upgraded the secondary, so a defense that has surrendered 27.5 over the last six games has a chance to look far more imposing coming out of the break with everyone rejuvenated. The Eagles are going to be without Desean Jackson again and list WRs Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor as questionable. RB Jordan Howard doesn’t look like he’s be cleared to return from a shoulder injury, which will leave rookie Miles Sanders, Boston Scott and Jay Ajayi as ball carriers. Tackle Lane Johnson also failed to make it back from concussion protocol. Rain and windy weather will be a part of this game too but both teams should be used to those conditions.

Jaguars at Titans(-3.5/41.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: The AFC South saw the Texans climb to the top with Thursday’s win over the Colts, who are now 6-5 and may have company there if Tennessee is able to hold serve at home here. Jacksonville is looking to stay alive after faltering in Nick Foles’ return last week, sputtering offensively in Indianapolis. They’ll try to get things going in Nashville and will have nice weather to help aid the cause. Foles has shown nice chemistry with DJ Chark and will have more preparation time in place to try and punish a defense that has surrendered an average of 26.3 points per game over the last four games. Despite that, Tennessee has won three of those four games and come off a win in a shootout over Kansas City. Ryan Tannehill has left Marcus Mariota in the dust with fans openly lamenting the change not being made sooner since it has obviously cost them a few games.

The Titans will likely feed Derrick Henry, who ran for 238 yards and four scores in the most recent matchup with Jacksonville, including a 99-yard run. Tennessee ran for 470 yards against Jacksonville in its two games last season and saw its start back rack up 188 yards against the Chiefs prior to the bye. The Jags rank last in the NFL in yards allowed per carry (5.2). The Jags won 20-7 in Week 3 by pressuring Mariota and may not have as much success this time around considering they’ll be dealing with an improved offensive line now featuring Taylor Lewan, who was suspended for that game. Delanie Walker is expected back from a lengthy absence, so this should be a big game for Tennessee as it makes its push to try and reach another postseason.

Cowboys at Patriots (-5.5/45.5), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Outside of North Florida and Tennessee, most eyes will be on this game late in the day. The Cowboys have been inconsistent all season and come off a 35-27 win where they took advantage of Detroit’s defensive shortcomings but the fact is that this will be the toughest defense that Dak Prescott has run into. Only the Ravens have managed to score more than 14 points against the New England defense this season, so a mobile Prescott may be part of the game plan early despite the fact that both he and the Cowboys prefer he hang in the pocket. New England hasn’t played at home since taking down the Patriots on Oct. 27, but both Tom Brady and Prescott will have to deal with steady rain. For the Pats, this should be nothing new given last week’s conditions in Philadelphia and other games they’ve toiled in this season, but it’s certainly cause for concern where Dallas is concerned since it has played almost exclusively in domes over the past few months. They have run into inclement weather at Met Life Stadium, but the combination of facing a stifling defense in less than ideal weather should be disconcerting if you’re a Cowboys fan.

Dallas doesn’t have much experience playing at Gillette Stadium, facing Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in their house for just the third time over the past two decades. Aaron Hernandez scored the game-winning TD when the teams last met in 2011 and Bill Parcells left with a 9-0 loss back in ’03, so we’re definitely witnessing history here. New England must find a way to move the football better than it has of late since Brady has been stifled and has been nursing an elbow injury that landed him on the injury report. Brady has thrown 14 touchdowns this season against just five interceptions and is just 248 yards shy of 3,000, so reports of his demise have been exaggerated. The total here reflects his struggles and takes the weather into account, so don’t jump all over the ‘over’ despite the low bar.

[Udog]

MNF - Ravens at Rams
Tony Mejia

Baltimore (-3.5, 47) at L.A. Rams, 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

A storied rivalry that began in 1996 with Vinny Testaverde outlasting Tony Banks’ Rams in OT to give the Ravens franchise its third-ever win in the team’s inaugural season is ready for its close-up and L.A. debut.

Ok, so maybe Monday night’s matchup doesn’t feature storied rivals, but it is an attractive matchup despite lacking an extensive history. The Rams were St. Louis’ team last time they crossed paths with John Harbaugh and the Ravens, falling 16-13 on a Justin Tucker field goal at the gun back in 2015. Todd Gurley scored the Rams’ lone touchdown, but there aren’t a lot of holdovers on either side from that most recent meeting, which featured the Rams blowing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead under Jeff Fisher’s watch. Neither went on to make the playoffs.

Four years later, the teams meet again with the Lamar Jackson-led Ravens (8-2 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) atop the NFL world and the Rams (6-4, 7-3) scrambling to make a playoff push after reaching the Super Bowl last season. In foru years, there’s a good chance we’ll remember this game for being Jackson’s Monday night debut.

Because the 49ers and Seahawks each won high-profile matchups against NFC contenders on Sunday to improve to a combined 19-3, L.A.’s already slim chances of winning its division dwindled further. That means the Rams will have to land one of the two wild card spots and need to remain in striking distance of the Vikings, who have taken up residence as the likeliest No. 6 seed with six games still left. They’ll face San Francisco and Seattle one more time and visit the Cowboys, so Sean McVay’s team is set to play a significant role in writing the rest of the story in the conference. Pulling off a win against the Ravens on Monday night would give them a better shot at a starring role as opposed to setting for playing spoiler. This will be their first Monday night appearance since last season’s epic 54-51 win over Kansas City.

Los Angeles is 2-1 under the lights in 2019, beating the Browns and Bears in Sunday night slugfests, the most recent of which came at home against Chicago on Nov. 17. They dropped a 30-29 Thursday night clash at Seattle that may ultimately cost it dearly. Greg Zuerlein unexpectedly missed a 44-yard field goal in that game to doom the Rams, who went on to lose to the Niners 20-7 the next week, digging themselves their current hole.

Baltimore’s only primetime appearance this season booked it a leading role the rest of the way. The Ravens destroyed the defending champion Patriots 37-20 on Nov. 3, producing nearly half the scoring New England has surrendered in its other 10 games (80 points) in four quarters of a Sunday night rout. The Ravens followed that up with a 49-13 blowout of the winless Bengals and a 41-7 annihilation of the AFC South-leading Texans, establishing themselves as the primary contender to the Patriots’ throne.

Jackson has become the MVP frontrunner this month, throwing for 608 yards and eight touchdowns without an interception while running for 205 more yards and three scores. He’ll be the AFC Player of the Month regardless of what happens here but will be looking to close out a second straight perfect month. The Ravens carry a six-game winning streak into Monday night (4-1-1 ATS), outscoring opponents 206-97. They last lost on Sept. 29, surrendering 40 points at home against the Browns after losing a 33-28 shootout in Kansas City.

Baltimore’s defense has gotten its act together and posted wins over Russell Wilson, Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson, so Jared Goff probably hasn’t had the unit too concerned this past week. Goff is coming off completing a season-low 11 passes in a 17-7 win over the Bears but gets back receivers Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks to try and test the Baltimore secondary. For a free pick on a prop, click here.

The Rams leaned on Gurley with the passing game an afterthought against the Bears, and opportunities could open up with the Ravens expected to be without DT Michael Pierce, but McVay’s preference for breaking a defense down via the pass and the fact the Ravens rank in the bottom 25 percent in the league in sacks could yield opportunities for Goff to take shots.

It remains to be seen how the presence of Aaron Donald affects Jackson since this rare matchup is highlighted by the game’s top interior lineman looking to disrupt an elusive dual-threat QB who is at the top of his game. Will Donald shutting down the middle allow the Rams to better help contain Jackson as he tries to break outside? Will being able to hit one of his tight ends or electric rookie “Hollywood” Brown help Jackson settle in and carve up a Rams’ defense that has looked sturdy?

Marcus Peters, traded by L.A. to Baltimore after one too many gambles, has been an asset in aiding the Ravens’ defensive resurgence. He’d just love to pick off Goff. Will McVay look to take advantage of his aggressiveness and bait him? You count on him trying at least a few times. A beautiful night awaits at the Coliseum as far as the weather is concerned, so that won’t interfere with either game plan.

TOTAL TALK

Oddsmakers sent out an opening total of 49 and the number has dropped to 46 ½ at most betting shops as of Monday morning. Baltimore enters this game with a 6-4 ‘over’ record while Los Angeles has seen the ‘under’ produce a 7-3 mark and that includes a run of five straight tickets to the low side.

Chris David offered up his thoughts on Monday’s number and his lean.

“This is one of those games where your opinion on the side will be correlated to your total wager. If you’re leaning to the Ravens to capture the win and cover, then an ‘over’ lean would be obvious based on trends we’ve seen from them,“ David said. “In five road games, Baltimore is averaging 38.4 PPG this season and that’s led to a 4-1 ‘over’ mark. As road favorites, that number jumps to an eye-opening 44.6 PPG albeit the results came against the Dolphins, Bengals and Steelers.

“The 5-0 ‘under’ for the Rams can be attributed to solid defensive play and a very inconsistent offense, which has been alarming for Los Angeles this season. After getting taxed for 55 and 30 points against the Buccaneers and Seahawks respectively in Week 4 and 5, the defensive unit has allowed 12.8 PPG in their last five games and just 9.0 PPG in three wins. Los Angeles has only won one game this season where it allowed 20 or more points and that came in Week 1. It’s easy to forget that the Rams have Wade Phillips as their defensive coordinator but he’s been a major asset this season.”

Baltimore has watched the ‘under’ go 2-0 this season versus NFC West opponents and going back to last season, the ‘under’ is 5-1 in non-conference games for the Ravens. The club will finish out their NFC slate next week at home against San Francisco.

Los Angeles is also on a 5-1 ‘under’ run in non-conference matchups and that includes a 3-0 record this season. The Rams have only allowed 13.3 PPG against the AFC North, which has resulted in a 2-1 record. The loss was a 17-12 decision at Pittsburgh in Week 10.

Even though Baltimore is the hottest team in the league, David believes the Ravens will get tested in this spot.

“This will be the second primetime game of the season for Baltimore and playing on the road is much different than at home. The Rams defense has been great against the run and I would expect them to load up the box and make Lamar Jackson beat them, which won’t be easy against a very good secondary,” said David. “The primetime games have been on a solid ‘under’ run and I believe the winner in this contest will have trouble scoring over 20 points. Along with the game going ‘under’ I would also lean to the Team Total ‘under’ on Baltimore (24) as well.”

LINE MOVEMENT

Baltimore Ravens
Projected season win total: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 4/1 to OTB (Clinched)
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 7/4
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 40/1 to 9/2

Los Angeles Rams
Projected season win total: 10.5 (Over +120, Under -140)
Odds to win NFC West (pre-Week 1/current): 2/3 to 40/1
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 7/1 to 25/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 14/1 to 50/1

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

"This one is pretty simple, really. The public loves Baltimore and sharps take any 3.5 that isn’t juiced." said Berg, whose poignant observations can be found on Twitter at @PercentBerg. Pros vs. Joes here.

INJURY CONCERNS

The Ravens likely won’t have Pierce but come in relatively healthy. Offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley and guard Ben Powers are expected to play after practicing on Saturday.

Woods has looked good in practice upon his return but the team hadn’t committed to him playing as of Monday morning. Cooks is a go as he returns from concussion protocol. L.A. will be without tackle Rob Havenstein due to a knee injury and will also be without DB Darious Williams but are relatively healthy as well.

ALL-TIME MEETINGS

(Ravens 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS last 10, OVER 3-3)

11/22/15 Ravens 16-13 vs. Rams (BAL -2.5, 42)
9/25/11 Ravens 37-7 at Rams (BAL -6, 42)
10/14/07 Ravens 22-3 vs. Rams (BAL -9, 36.5)
11/9/03 Rams 33-22 vs. Ravens (STL -6.5, 42)
9/12/99 Rams 27-10 vs. Ravens (PK’em, 39)
10/27/96 Ravens 37-31 OT vs. Rams (BAL -6, 43)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 13 numbers featured the Rams laying 3.5 points at Arizona on Sunday and the Ravens favored by 4.5 points at home against the 49ers in a potential Super Bowl preview.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 12
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 12 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 10-3
Against the Spread 5-7-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 10-3
Against the Spread 7-5-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 4-9

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 111-60-1
Against the Spread 74-93-5

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 95-76-1
Against the Spread 74-93-5

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 84-87-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Redskins (+4, ML +170) vs. Lions, 19-16
Buccaneers (+3.5, ML +165) at Falcons, 35-22
Jets (+3.5, ML +160) vs. Raiders, 34-3

The largest favorite to cover
Browns (-10.5) vs. Dolphins, 41-24
Titans (-4.5) vs. Jaguars, 42-20
Bills (-4) vs. Broncos, 20-3

How About Dem Cowboys?

-- The Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) were able to grab the cover on the road against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass. in a chilly, mist and fog. While, yes, the Cowboys were able to grab a cover, they fell against a winning team yet again. The Cowboys have beaten the New York Giants (twice), the Washington Redskins, the Miami Dolphins, the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions. The combined records of the teams Dallas has beaten is 16-49-1, and they haven't recorded a win over a team with a record over .500. The best record of anyone they have beaten is Philadelphia at 5-6. Someone has to win the NFC East, as the Cowboys (6-5) are the only team over .500. They don't seem like to go very far, however.

While they're all well and good, they're still covering. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS across the past five outings, and 7-4 ATS overall. That includes a 4-2 ATS mark on the road, and they're 3-0 ATS across the past three away from home. Sunday's game in Foxboro marked the first time they were an underdog, and they covered at most shops.

Total Recall

-- The two highest totals on the board Sunday were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Atlanta Falcons (51.5) and Green Bay Packers-San Francisco 49ers (48). The Buccaneers certainly did their part, throwing up 35 points, incuding 19 points in the first-half. The teams combined for 29 points to hit the first-half 'over' in this one, too. In the SNF game, over bettors weren't as fortunate, which is part for the course for primetime games this season. The first-half under narrowly cashed thanks mostly to a goose egg for the Pack, as San Francisco hoisted up 23 points in the first 30 minutes.

The next highest totals on the board were the Thursday night battle between the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans (46.5) and Sunday's NFC South tilt under the roof between the Carolina Panthers-New Orleans (46.5). The TNF game was a low-scoring 20-17 battle in favor of the home team, while the home side also won by three in the NFC South battle in NOLA, but this game hit the over rather easily. In fact, we had 10 or more combined points in each quarter, and 32 total points on the board at halftime to cover a first-half 'over'.

There were three totals on the board under 40, the Denver Broncos-Buffalo Bills (37), Pittsburgh Steelers-Cincinnati Bengals (37) and Detroit Lions-Washington Redskins (39) each hit the 'under'. The Broncos-Bills game saw a total of just 23 points, the Steelers-Bengals game saw just 26 point sand the Lions-Redskins tilt was the 'highest' scoring of the trio, totaling 35 points. Still, defense reigned supreme, which is never good for a betting public which tends to lean 'over' more often than not.

The 'under' made a clean sweep in the Week 11 primetime battles, and so far the 'under' is 2-0 under the lights with the Baltimore Ravens-Los angeles Rams (47) game still pending. The 'over' is just 12-24 (33.3%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Eagles QB Carson Wentz (hand) will have tests on his right hand after suffering an injury in Sunday's game vs. the Seahawks.

Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles

-- We have two divisional battles out of the three Thanksgiving games. The Bears and Lions kick off the festivities at 12:30 p.m. ET at Ford Field. The Lions, coming off a disappointing 19-16 loss in Washington, has dropped four in a row while failing to cover six in a row after a 4-1 ATS start. The four-game losing streak including a 20-13 loss on Nov. 10 in Chicago, a game which hit the 'under'. Chicago heads into this game with a 9-1 ATS mark in their past 10 divisional games, while Detroit is 2-6 ATS in their past eight at home and 2-6 ATS in the past eight inside the division. The Bears are an impressive 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven in this series, with the favorite 4-0-1 ATS in the past five battles and the under 6-2 in the previous eight meetings.

-- The other divisional battle on Turkey Day is a rematch between the Saints and Falcons in Atlanta. The Falcons stunned the Saints by a 26-9 score in Week 10, winning outright as 13.5-point underdogs. It served as a wake-up call for the Saints, who have scored 34 points in each of the past two outings, both wins and 'over' results. New Orleans has cashed in 24 of the past 32 road games, while Atlanta is still just 6-13 ATS in the past 19 games overall. The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings in this series, and the under has hit in four of the past five meetings, and seven of the past 10 in Atlanta.

-- The Browns and Steelers will renew acquaintances at Heinz Field just 18 days after 'Helmetgate', or whatever you want to call the brawl which saw DE Myles Garrett suspended for the remainder of the field for swinging QB Mason Rudolph's helmet at the signal caller. After a 2-6 SU start the Browns have rattled off three straight wins, including a 21-7 victory over the Steelers on Nov. 14. Of course, all three of those victories came at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Browns are 2-3 SU/ATS in their five games away from home. Cleveland is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six in this series, but the home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetngs, too, with the 'over' 4-1 in the past five meetings in Pittsburgh.

-- The Titans and Colts will square off in Indy. Tennessee is 15-33-3 ATS in the past 51 AFC South battles, and they're 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams. Indy has covered in seven straight divisional games, and they're 18-7-1 ATS in the past 26 against winning teams. In this series, the Titans are a dismal 3-13 ATS in the past 16 meetings, with Tennessee 1-7 ATS in the past eight trips to Lucas Oil Stadium.

-- The Rams travel to meet the Cardinals, looking to stay hot on the road. L.A. is 6-1 ATS in the past seven on the road. The Rams have dominated this series, too, covering four in a row overall, and four straight in Arizona. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings, too.

-- The Chargers and Broncos square off in Denver. The Bolts have been strong on the road, going 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 on the road, including 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven on the road against a team with a losing home record. On the flip side, the Broncos have a dismal 1-4 ATS record in the past five insisde the division. The Chargers have an odd 9-2-5 ATS mark in their past 16 trips to Denver, and the road team is 15-5-2 ATS in the past 22 meetings in this series.

-- The Raiders and Chiefs get together, with Kansas City already a double-digit favorite in this one. Oakland has managed a 3-9 ATS mark in the past 12 on the road, while the Chiefs are 19-7 ATS in the past 26 inside the AFC West. The Raiders have failed to cover in five of their past six trips to Arrowhead, while going 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings overall. The favorite has connected in 10 of the past 14 meetings in this series. The under is 17-5 in the past 22 meetings in Kansas City, too.

[Udog]

NFL Week 13 opening odds and early action: Bills draw sharp play for Thanksgiving battle vs Cowboys
Patrick Everson

Frank Gore has helped Buffalo post an 8-3 SU mark (7-3-1 ATS) heading into a Thanksgiving Day game at Dallas. The Bills opened as 7.5-point underdogs and drew early cash, moving the line to +7.

Week 13 of the NFL season includes a Thanksgiving Day feast of three games, along with an intriguing Sunday/Monday menu. We check in on the opening odds and early action, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

Somewhat under the radar, Buffalo heads into this Turkey Day contest with an 8-3 SU mark and a more-than-respectable 7-3-1 ATS record, as well. The Bills had little trouble with Denver in Week 12, winning 20-3 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Meanwhile, Dallas dropped two of its last three games, though it still leads a very weak NFC East at 6-5 SU (7-4 ATS). In Week 12, the Cowboys faced a stern test in the rain at New England, losing 13-9 but cashing as 5.5-point underdogs.

“We opened Cowboys -7.5 and took some respected money on the Bills, and lowered it to -7,” Murray said. “I see a lot of Cowboys-to-Saints parlays in our future.”

The Saints-Falcons game is the Thanksgiving nightcap, following the Bills-Cowboys clash.

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5)

Baltimore still has Week 12 work to do, playing Monday night at the Los Angeles Rams, but John Harbaugh’s squad is arguably the hottest in the league. The Ravens (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) are on runs of 6-0 SU and 4-0 ATS, including a 41-7 bashing of Houston as 4-point faves in Week 11.

San Francisco continues to impress, tied with New England for the best record in the NFL at 10-1 SU (6-4-1 ATS). On Sunday night, the 49ers hosted a Green Bay squad that was a very public ‘dog, but San Fran rumbled to a 37-8 victory laying 3 points at home.

“We opened Ravens -4.5, but took it off the board when the Packers-49ers game kicked off,” Murray said as the Sunday night game was in progress. “No betting action to report here, but we could see an adjustment in this number depending on how the Sunday and Monday night games turn out.”

The SuperBook’s standard operating procedure is to take the following week’s game off the board when a team is in the Sunday or Monday nighter. That means this line will go back up Monday morning, then come down again Monday night during the Ravens-Rams tilt.

New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+3.5)

Following its lone loss of the season, at Baltimore, New England scored a combined 30 points in its next two games – and won them both. In Week 12 at home against Dallas, the Patriots (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) mustered just one touchdown and two field goals in a 13-9 victory giving 5.5 points.

Houston won three of its last four SU – while going 1-3 ATS – and is atop the AFC South at 7-4 SU (5-6 ATS). The Texans took sole possession of first with a 20-17 home win over Indianapolis giving 3.5 points in the Week 12 Thursday nighter.

“The public will come in heavy on the Patriots in this spot, and the books will need Houston huge by kickoff,” Murray said. “New England’s offense is really struggling the last few weeks, to put it nicely.”

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)

Oakland saw its three-game winning streak end in embarrassing fashion in Week 12. The Raiders (6-5 SU and ATS) went off as 3.5-point favorites at the New York Jets and got boatraced 34-3, with Oakland’s lone score coming on the first possession of the game.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is coming off its bye week, giving Patrick Mahomes some time to better heal up from a nagging ankle injury. In Week 11, Mahomes and the Chiefs (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) held off the Los Angeles Chargers 24-17 as 5.5-point road favorites.

“This number bumped up a point-and-a-half off our look-ahead number, due to the Raiders’ loss on the road against the Jets,” Murray said. “The Chiefs are a team to keep an eye down the stretch, if they can get healthy.”

[Udog]

Hot & Not Report - Week 13
Matt Blunt

Week of November 25th

Last week's piece focused on two NFC divisions and the results they've had in non-division games the past few weeks, and in Week 12 action there were some mixed results.

NFC West teams continued to dominate non-division foes, as both Seattle and San Francisco were able to cover short numbers with relative ease. Seattle continued to shoot themselves in the foot to allow the Eagles to hang around, but thankfully for Seattle backers/fans, Philly has Dorian Gray at QB, and after Sunday's awful performance from Wentz, more and more people are starting to see all the ugliness Wentz has in his game that I touched on weeks ago in that piece.

San Francisco rolled over the Packers on SNF as it was a beat down from start to finish for the 49ers. Jimmy Garoppolo could be in the midst of his “lightning in a bottle” season like the only other past FCS QB's to be drafted in the last 10+ years have experienced (Wentz in 2017, Joe Flacco in January 2013), but it's this San Francisco defense that's the key to the 49ers success. When you've got the type of game wreckers they do in the front seven, most opponents are going to buckle when the 49ers are on their game.

We've got the Rams still pending in this scenario tonight as they host a red hot Baltimore team, and based on early action reports – Baltimore's getting bet at about a 70% clip currently – the oddsmakers would prefer to see LA get across the finish line as well.

Over on the “Not” side of things from last week, the NFC East teams in non-division action this past week ended up going 3-1 ATS, with everyone but the aforementioned Philadelphia Eagles getting an ATS win. Only the Washington Redskins were lucky enough to get a SU win though, as both Dallas and the NY Giants kept things close enough in low-scoring road defeats.

This week we've got a continuation of last week's angle of sorts, as we begin with teams from an AFC division and their recent non-division results, as well as a different take that's been going well. You put the two of them together for Week 13 and the entire betting board in the NFL is basically covered, so I'll even lay out all the teams you should be looking at for Week 13 and we can come back a week from now and see if these runs hold up.

Who's Hot

AFC East teams are 14-6-1 ATS in non-division games since October 1st

This trend wasn't stellar in Week 12 as it was a 2-2 ATS record for the likes of New England, Buffalo, NY Jets, and Miami, but overall, when these teams venture outside of the division, you generally want to be looking their way. All four of them have winning ATS records in non-division play since the beginning of October – New England are 4-2 ATS, Buffalo are 3-1-1 ATS, the NY Jets are 4-2 ATS, and Miami are 3-1 ATS – and about a handful of those ATS victories for the three teams not named “New England” have come as outright wins as underdogs as well.

I mean, look at this Jets team right now who have put up 34 points in three straight weeks, winning all three of those games by double digits, and closing as an underdog in all of them. QB Sam Darnold is probably feeling like himself again after his Mono issue earlier this year, as this offense that had many new faces show up this year is starting to play like a cohesive unit. Three straight SU and ATS wins as underdogs will start to bring attention in the betting market, and with a trip to Cincinnati on deck for the Jets this week, this run of New York catching points will end. We will have to see if the Jets – laying 3.5 points vs Cincinnati - can continue their strong play as favorites now, a role New York is 0-2 SU and ATS in this year, although both of those did come within AFC East division play.

The rest of this division is out playing non-conference foes in Week 13 as well, as early numbers have Buffalo (+7) in Dallas on Thanksgiving, Miami (+8.5) hosting Philadelphia, and New England (-3.5) at Houston on SNF. All three of these games have some interesting dynamics to them and you should find more support for any plays you do make, but Buffalo and Miami catching those points against Dallas and Philadelphia do look awfully attractive.

New England's got to deal with a Texans team that's had extended rest and hasn't had to travel, which makes backing the Patriots a little trickier, especially when the chances are they'll be a side the oddsmakers would prefer to see lose again.

But put all four plays in as early leans right now – NY Jets (-3.5), Buffalo (+7), Miami (+8.5) and New England (-3.5) and let's go on to build out the rest of this card with...

Who's Not

Fading teams that put up 30 or more points in their last outing – 5-12 ATS last three weeks, and 2-9 ATS past two weeks

I'll start with the pending game as that is tonight's MNF game between the Ravens and Rams. It's the Ravens who are coming off a 30+ point performance in their last outing, and that's going directly up against that run for NFC West teams in non-division play, so that's why it's so important to find further support for what side you decide to back. Tonight's game is a pass for me (at least with the side) as those conflicting runs suggest it will be a close game that could easily land on either side of the current number (Baltimore -3.5).

But a 9-2 ATS record for teams coming off a 30-point effort suggests that the offenses that achieve that production really go out and have a great week of practice afterwards, and build upon that momentum. These teams are 8-3 SU in those 11 games, so taking the points where you can may be better option. And going into Week 13 there are plenty of teams that qualify in this role.

Astute readers will know that the NY Jets (-3.5) fit both of these Hot/Not scenarios, and laying points with them against Cincinnati is something that does seem easy to get behind. So that's another piece of supporting evidence for Jets backers this week, although they've still got that nasty hook lying there. The number won't go down so buying off that hook may be the best option now, or just bypass the spread all together and take NY on the ML and go from there.

The list of the other teams you should be playing on in Week 13 based on them putting up 30+ in their last effort are: Tampa Bay (+1) at Jacksonville, Cleveland (-1) at Pittsburgh, New Orleans (-6.5) at Atlanta on Thursday, Carolina (-10) vs Washington, Tennessee (+3) at Indianapolis, and San Francisco (+4.5) at Baltimore – pending Baltimore doesn't land here themselves with 30+ on MNF.

That's already a lot of the board covered, but the majority of the teams listed here are on the road. That isn't exactly ideal, but it's how it goes and if your own handicapping throughout the week has you landing on a few of these teams, it's probably a good decision to fire.

In the end, these two situations have most of the Week 13 NFL board covered, with none of them conflicting. And as I said at the top, we can see how these plays end up in the coming week. They are:

Buffalo (+7)
New Orleans (-6.5)
Miami (+8.5)
NY Jets (-3.5)
Tennessee (+3)
Cleveland (-1)
Carolina (-10)
San Francisco (+4.5) – pending Baltimore's result
Tampa Bay (+1)
New England (-3.5)