NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Thur., Oct. 31 - Sat., Nov. 2)

[Udog]

Georgia vs. Florida
Brian Edwards

No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 6 Florida Gators
Venue/Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 2, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Georgia -6, Total 45.5

All that’s at stake in Jacksonville for Florida and Georgia on Saturday is an inside track to winning the SEC East, staying alive in hopes of making the College Football Playoff, denying the right for the other to enjoy the aforementioned fruits and – of course – 365 days of bragging rights with a bitter, border rival.

As of late Friday afternoon, most books had the Bulldogs installed as six-point favorites with a total of 45.5. The Gators were +190 on the money line.

Georgia (6-1 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) is off a 21-0 win over Kentucky as a 23.5-point home favorite. The 21 combined points ducked ‘under’ the 46-point total in a game that was played in wet and rainy conditions. In fact, the game remained scoreless until UGA drew first blood on a D’Andre Swift 39-yard touchdown run with 6:20 left in the third quarter.

Brian Herrien added an eight-yard TD scamper for a 14-0 lead with 1:54 remaining in the third. Swift’s three-yard TD run with 6:24 left provided the final scoring.

Georgia had advantages of 14-9 in first downs and 279-180 in total offense. Junior quarterback Jake Fromm completed 9-of-12 passes for a career-low 35 yards, while Swift ran 21 times for 179 yards and a pair of TDs. Herrien produced 60 rushing yards and one TD on 13 carries.

Kirby Smart’s team started the year with wins at Vanderbilt (30-6), vs. Murray St. (63-17), vs. Arkansas St. (55-0), vs. Notre Dame (23-17) and at Tennessee (43-14). However, in a Week 7 home game vs. South Carolina, the Gamecocks came into Athens and captured a 20-17 win in double overtime as 21-point road underdogs.

Fromm entered the game without an interception, but he was picked off three times by South Carolina sophomore CB Israel Mukuamu. South Carolina could’ve won in the first overtime after Mukuamu intercepted Fromm for a third time on the first possession, but Parker White pushed a potential game-winning field goal wide right.

In the second extra session, however, White buried a 24-yard field goal. Rodrigo Blankenship, who might be the second-best kicker in UGA history behind Kevin Butler, had a chance to answer but hooked his FGA from more than 40 yards out.

South Carolina lost starting QB Ryan Hilinski to a knee injury in the second quarter, forcing Will Muschamp to turn to a third-string QB (considering how Week 1 starter Jake Bentley is out with a season-ending injury). Hilinski was hot, too, completing 15-of-20 passes for 116 yards and one TD without an interception. His 46-yard TD pass to Bryan Edwards put the Gamecocks ahead 7-3 late in the opening stanza.

With the score knotted at 10-10, the game turned on Mukuamu’s 53-yard pick-six with 1:00 left until halftime. Georgia got a six-yard TD run from Demetris Robertson with 1:48 remaining to force overtime.

Fromm has connected on 123-of-174 passes (70.7%) for 1,406 yards with a 9/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. True freshman WR George Pickens has a team-best 23 catches for 318 yards and two TDs, while Lawrence Cager has 19 receptions for 245 yards and three TDs.

Cager, who missed the win over Kentucky with an injured shoulder, is listed as ‘questionable.’ Herrien is also a question mark with a back injury, in addition to CB Tyson Campbell, CB Mark Webb and DE Jordan Davis.

UGA has two other notable threats in its WR group, Demetris Robertson and Dominick Blaylock. Robertson, who was a five-star recruit out of Savannah, GA., that started his career at California, has 18 catches for 205 yards and three TDs.

Junior RB D’Andre Swift leads the SEC in both rushing yards (752) and TDs (seven). Swift is averaging 6.8 yards per carry. Herrien has run for 311 yards and five TDs, averaging 5.9 YPC. Redshirt freshman Zamir White has 245 rushing yards, two TDs and a 6.3 YPC average.

Kirby Smart’s team is ranked No. 15 in the country in rushing yards and No. 24 in scoring with its 36.0 points-per-game average. Fromm has been sacked only four times this year, with three of those coming in the loss to South Carolina.

UGA is seventh in the nation in total defense, fifth in run defense and fifth in scoring ‘D’ (10.6 points per game). The Bulldogs’ stop unit is led by junior LB Monty Rice, who has a team-high 41 tackles to go with three QB hurries and one pass broken up. Freshman LB Azeez Ojulari has a team-high 3.5 sacks and 14 QB hurries.

Florida (7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) owns wins vs. Miami (24-20 in Orlando), vs. UT-Martin (45-0), at Kentucky (29-21), vs. Tennessee (34-3), vs. Towson (38-0), vs. Auburn (24-13) and at South Carolina (38-27). The UF defense came up large late in the fourth quarter against the Hurricanes in an Aug. 24 season opener.

After fourth-year junior QB Feleipe Franks went down with a season-ending injury in the third quarter at Kentucky, Kyle Trask rallied Florida from a 21-10 fourth-quarter deficit to win a 29-21 decision as a 9.5-point road favorite. Trask, another fourth-year junior signal caller, had not started a game since his freshman year of high school (when he was the back-up to Houston star QB D’Eriq King), but he has been outstanding since taking over for Franks.

Trask completed 19-of-31 throws for 234 yards and two TDs without an interception against Auburn. He was sharp in UF’s only defeat as well, throwing for 310 yards and three TDs compared to one interception in a 42-28 loss at LSU that was a much closer game than the final score indicated.

Dan Mullen’s squad came up empty on a pair of fourth-and-goal attempts in the fourth quarter against the Tigers, who were aided by injuries to UF’s two best pass rushers, preseason All-American DE Jabari Zuniga and DE Jonathan Greenard. Zuniga didn’t play against Tennessee or Auburn after spraining his ankle in the third quarter of the victory at Kentucky. He tried to give it a go against LSU but clearly wasn’t 100 percent and eventually left the game.

Greenard injured his ankle the week before LSU against Auburn. He left the game after the first series in Baton Rouge. Zuniga and Greenard both sat out in the win over the Gamecocks. Both edge rushers have been listed as ‘probable’ since Monday.

Greenard, a junior who transferred to UF from Louisville, has played like an All-American since donning the orange and blue colors. He has recorded 28 tackles, seven QB hurries, four sacks, 2.5 tackles for loss, three PBU, one forced fumble and one interception. Zuniga has been limited to just four games, producing 11 tackles, three sacks, 2.5 TFL’s and one QB hurry.

UF will also welcome the return of explosive WR Kadarius Toney, who hasn’t played since sustaining a wrist injury in the Week 2 win over UT-Martin. Toney, who is listed as ‘probable,’ turned a receiver screen into a 66-yard TD catch in the opener against Miami. The junior wideout produced 10.9 yards on 46 touches in 2018, including the-game winning TD pass in a 13-6 victory at Mississippi St. Toney played QB in high school and is sometimes featured in the Wildcat formation.

Florida went into the fourth quarter trailing South Carolina, 20-17, only to explode for 21 points in the final stanza. Trask found Freddie Swain for a 25-yard TD pass to put the Gators up 24-20 with 9:54 remaining. Next, Trask hit TE Kyle Pitts with a five-yard scoring strike. Finally, a five-yard TD toss to Trevon Grimes made it 38-20 with 4:02 left.

Trask threw for 200 yards and four TDs with one interception at South Carolina. Dameon Pierce produced 87 rushing yards and one TD on seven carries, while LaMical Perine had 68 rushing yards on 14 totes. Redshirt freshman WR Jacob Copeland had three receptions for 89 yards and one TD.

For the season, Trask has completed 67.5 percent of his throws for 1,391 yards with a 14/4 TD-INT ratio. Emory Jones, the redshirt freshman QB who saw significant playing time against Auburn and LSU, has connected on 17-of-28 (60.7%) passes for 125 yards and two TDs without an interception. Jones has run for 116 yards and one TD, averaging 6.1 YPC.

Pitts is enjoying a breakout campaign as a true sophomore, hauling in a team-high 35 receptions for 391 yards and four TDs. Swain has 21 catches for 339 yards and four TDs, while Van Jefferson has 21 grabs for 331 yards and three TDs.

Perine has 461 rushing yards and four TDs, averaging 4.7 YPC. Peirce has 248 rushing yards and three TDs on 35 attempts for a 7.1 YPC average.

Florida is ranked 25th in the nation in total defense and 12 in scoring ‘D’ (15.8 PPG). Senior LB David Reese is second in the SEC in tackles with 66. He has one TFL and one sack. Junior cornerback CJ Henderson, who was a second-team All-SEC selection last season, paces the SEC in PBU with nine even though he’s played in only five games. Henderson was injured against UT-Martin and missed the next three contests.

The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for UGA, cashing at a 4-1 clip in its past five contests. The Bulldogs have seen their games average combined scores of 46.6 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for the Gators, who have seen their games average combined scores of 48.2 PPG. However, UF has seen back-to-back games ‘over’ the total with combined scores of 65 and 70 points.

UF has won 21 of 29 head-to-head meetings over UGA since 1990, but the Bulldogs have prevailed in the last two meetings. They ran the Gators out of town in a 42-7 triumph two seasons ago.

Georgia pulled away from UF in the fourth quarter to win by a 36-17 count as a seven-point ‘chalk’ last year. Fromm was the catalyst, hitting 17-of-24 passes for 240 yards and three TDs without an interception. Swift had 104 rushing yards and one TD on 12 carries.

Friday’s weather forecast in Jacksonville was for late showers, but the chances of rain on Saturday afternoon are only 20 percent. The conditions are expected to be cloudy with a high temperature of 68 degrees.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- The ‘under’ is 5-2-1 in the past nine UF-UGA games in Jacksonville.

-- Best ATS teams: Ohio State (7-1), Auburn (7-1), Louisiana (6-1), Clemson (6-2), SMU (6-2), Georgia State (5-1-2), Oklahoma State (6-2), Tulane (6-2) and Kentucky (6-2).

-- Worst ATS squads: Akron (0-8), UMass (1-7), Nebraska (1-7), Vanderbilt (1-6), Ga. Tech (1-6), Texas State (1-5-1), Rutgers (2-6), Bowling Green (2-6), Arkansas (2-6), Mississippi State (2-6), Syracuse (2-6), FIU (2-6), North Texas (2-6), Michigan State (2-6), Ohio (2-6), Army (2-6) and Marshall (2-6).

-- Oklahoma State won’t have star WR Tylan Wallace for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL. Wallace had 53 receptions for 903 yards and eight TDs in eight games for the Cowboys, who are 2.5-point home favorites Saturday vs. TCU.

-- Michigan State senior LB Joe Bachie saw his collegiate career come to a premature end Thursday when the NCAA suspended him for testing positive for a banned performance-enhancing drug. Bachie was a second-team All-Big-Ten selection in 2017 and a fourth-team All-American for the Spartans last year. He had 71 tackles, five TFL’s, four PBU, 3.5 sacks, three QB hurries and one interception in 2019.

-- The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight Utah State games. The Aggies host BYU on Saturday at 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Gary Andersen’s team listed as a three-point home favorite vs. the Cougars, who will be without a pair of starters on the offensive line (Tristen Hoge and Kieffer Longson). The total was 50.5 points.

-- Indiana LB Thomas Allen is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Allen, a sophomore who had 28 tackles, two TFL’s, one sack and one interception in 2018, had recorded 17 tackles and 0.5 TFL’s before going down. IU quarterback Michael Penix is ‘questionable’ Saturday vs. Northwestern, so Payton Ramsey will likely get the starting nod. Ramsey has completed 72.1 percent of his passes with an 8/3 TD-INT ratio.

-- Northwestern DE Ernest Brown is out at IU with an undisclosed season-ending injury. Brown had 22 tackles, four sacks, 3.5 TFL’s, four QB hurries and three PBU for the Wildcats last year. In 2019, he produced 15 tackles, two sacks, 0.5 TFL’s and two PBU in six games. Don’t blame Northwestern’s issues on senior DE Joe Gaziano, who was a second-team All-Big-Ten selection in 2018. Gaziano has 31 tackles, 5.5 sacks, three TFL’s, three forced fumbles, one QB hurry and one PBU. Pat Fitzgerald’s team is one of the nation’s biggest disappointments, and it’s all on the offense. The Wildcats are last in the nation, No. 130 out of 130 FBS team, in scoring with their 10.6 PPG average. They’ve scored more than 15 points only once this year, a 30-spot in a home win over UNLV. Northwestern is an 11-point underdog at IU. The Hoosiers are 7-2 ATS in nine games as a double-digit favorite on Tom Allen’s watch.

-- Northwestern RB Isaiah Bowser and WR JJ Jefferson have both ruled ‘out’ at IU.

-- Three QBs were upgraded to ‘probable’ earlier this week: FAU’s Chris Robison, UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Nebraska’s Adrian Martinez.

-- Wake Forest QB Jamie Newman remains ‘questionable’ vs. North Carolina St. The Demon Deacons, who have had two weeks to prep for the Wolfpack, are favored by 7.5 points.

-- Boise State QB Hank Bachmeier is ‘questionable’ at San Jose St. The Spartans are 17-point home underdogs.

-- South Carolina RB Rico Dowdle is ‘out’ vs. Vanderbilt.

[Udog]

by: Monty Andrews


NARROW WINS ARE THEIR FORTE

Wake Forest has looked impressive this season – but a deeper look reveals a run of good fortune, as well, as the Demon Deacons host the NC State Wolfpack on Saturday. The Demon Deacons are 6-1 SU but just 3-3-1 ATS, with four of their victories coming by six or fewer points. And they face two major question marks this weekend against the Wolfpack, with starting quarterback Jamie Newman's status for this weekend's game still in doubt and the Demon Deacons set to be without leading tackler Justin Strnad, who underwent season-ending biceps surgery last week.

With the Demon Deacons just 8-14-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a favorite of 7+ points and NC State moving forward with a new starting QB in Devin Leary (who threw for three TDs in relief last week), we like the Wolfpack and the points.


A WHOLE LOTTA RUNNING

Pass attempts will be few and far between Saturday at Falcon Stadium as Air Force and Army tangle in an all-Armed Forces encounter. The host Falcons and Black Knights rank second and fifth, respectively, in rushing yards per game coming into the weekend. But while Air Force has also been proficient in stopping the run (limiting opponents to 92.9 yards per game on the ground), Army ranks outside the top 50 in rushing defense and has allowed 28+ points in three of its previous four games. It has also gone five consecutive games without a cover, while Air Force has covered five straight.

Air Force is averaging 40.8 points at home this season while winning all four games at Falcon Stadium by an average of 25.3 points. Look for the home side to cover despite being a sizeable favorite.


NOT GIVING AN INCH

Georgia and Florida will put their respective elite defenses on display this Saturday in Gainesville, and that could mean a major lack of scoring – especially in the early going. Not only do the Bulldogs and Gators rank first and third, respectively, in red-zone defense for the season, they've also done a terrific job at forcing teams to go for three points, allowing just 23 touchdowns against 13 field goals. Georgia ranks 11th in the country in fewest first-quarter points allowed to FBS teams (2.3), while Florida isn't far behind in 27th spot (3.8) – and that average shrinks to just 3.0 at home.

Bettors could go one of two ways here; the field goal as the first scoring play is a decent option at +200, as is the Under on the overall first-half total.


WHO'S LEFT?

You could hardly blame Colorado Buffaloes fans for being a little perplexed at the player exodus the team has endured this season. But it's back to on-field business Saturday as the Buffaloes visit UCLA. Three players (DB Aaron Maddox, TE Darrion Jones and LB Jacob Callier) have bolted from the team since the middle of the month, bringing the number of departures under new head coach Mel Tucker to more than a dozen. And that has played a major role in Colorado ranking 125th in the nation in total defense heading into Saturday's encounter with a Bruins team that has gone 3-1-1 ATS in its last five.

With the Bruins' offense humming (35.7 ppg over the past three games) and Colorado merely concerned with fielding a team amid a litany of departures, it's hard to go against the home team on what looks like a reasonable spread.

[Udog]

Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in select FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Early Starts

NC State at Wake Forest (-7.5/60.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN: After bouncing back from a tough 62-59 loss to Louisville by edging Florida State, the Demon Deacons hit November with national championship aspirations. No, seriously. They’ll just have to hold serve here and pull off road upsets of Clemson and Virginia before two more wins over Duke and Syracuse in order to reach the ACC title game ahead of the defending champion Tigers. Possible but not probable, the Deacs will have to avoid an upset here to get the ball rolling and must potentially overcome the absence of senior QB Jamie Newman, who is questionable with a shoulder injury. The very capable Sam Hartman would start if Newman can’t go.

The Wolfpack are looking to get back to .500 behind new starting QB Devin Leary, who did the bulk of the work before last week’s bye in a loss at Boston College. N.C. State had a pair of October bye weeks, one to start the month and one to end it, which gives them an opporutinity to legitimately surprise Wake Forest with things they haven’t seen on film. Leary, a redshirt freshman who was third on the depth chart most of the season, will need to put up points since Wake should put up points no matter who is under center since WRs Sage Surratt and Scotty Washington are likely to have their way with N.C. State’s undersized, inexperienced corners.

Nebraska (-4/58) at Purdue, 12 p.m. ET, FOX: These teams were expecting this opening game of November to be enormous in fueling their West Division title hopes. Instead, the ‘Huskers are just hoping to avoid slipping under .500 and the Boilers are looking to begin a run of four straight wins just to finish 6-6 and move their streak of bowl bids to three. Considering they’ve still got to win at Wisconsin, that’s unlikely. Jeff Brohm’s team has had terrible luck with injuries but has also underachieved. They beat Nebraska in Lincoln for the first time ever last year but have been without standout WR Rondale Moore and probably won’t have him back from a leg injury suffered in late September.

Nebraska will finally get QB Adrian Martinez back after a two-week absence. He looked like he was going to play in last week’s loss to Indiana but was ultimately held out due to a fear that he wouldn’t be able to protect himself due to a balky left knee. That fear no longer exists. Maurice Washington remains out, but Martinez’s return means Purdue’s defense will have to be locked in against the most capable offensive theam they’ve seen since opening October at Penn State. Boilers’ redshirt freshman QB Jack Plummer was benched during last week’s 24-6 turnover-prone loss at Illinois but will start again.

Houston at UCF (-21.5/72), 12 p.m ET, ESPN2: Houston QB D’Eriq King redshirting to return next season means this won’t be the formidable duel that was expected when the schedule was released. After nearly taking down SMU last week, the Cougs are nevertheless dangerous despite coming in with a losing record. RBs Kyle Porter and Patrick Carr have been cleared to play and WR Marquez Stevenson comes off a 10-catch, 211-yard effort against the Mustangs, so there is a lot of talent at the skill positions for Clayton Tune to continue working with. This will be Dana Holgorsen’s first look at UCF and Orlando’s “Bounce Hounce” since coming over from the Big 12. U of H has won the last two meetings between the schools, which includes a 59-10 road win in 2015.

The Knights come off a 63-21 win at Temple and will be favored in their final three regular-season games but won’t get back to a conference championship game unless Cincinnati is beaten twice. That’s unlikely. UCF has scored 104 points in its two games since suffering a 27-24 setback at the Bearcats to open October. RB Adrian Killins will be back from an arm injury, restoring the team’s quality depth at tailback despite the absence of Greg McRae (knee). Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel and backup Darriel Mack, Jr. lead an offense averaging 46.6 points per game. The Knights won’t play at home again until closing the regular season with their annual post-Thanksgiving clash with rival South Florida.

Michigan (-21.5/58) at Maryland, 12 p.m. ET, ABC: The Wolverines were able to flex some muscle in rainy conditions last Saturday night, running up the score in a 45-14 win against overwhelmed Notre Dame. Jim Harbaugh’s team will have a bye on deck before tackling their final stretch of games against rival Michigan State, upstart Indiana and mighty Ohio State, so we’ll see how they approach this road game considering their 2-8 ATS over their last 10 trips outside Ann Arbor. Michigan is relatively healthy outside of top receiver Ronnie Bell, who tweaked a knee and left the field against the Irish.

Maryland got some bodies back for Minnesota last week but were never given a chance to knock off any of the rust in getting overwhelmed 52-10. The Terps have dropped five of six and have given up over 46 points per game in their last four losses. They’re unlikely to gain bowl eligibility in Mike Locksley’s first season since this one will be followed by a visit to Columbus next week, but getting QB Josh Jackson back where he needs to be to lead the program will be a priority. Tyrrell Pigrome should also get snaps after getting his knee back up to speed after leaving the field in Minneapolis. Maryland has a number of injury-related issues up front that won’t help its cause.

Afternoon Delights

Virginia Tech at Notre Dame (-17.5/58.5), 2:30 p.m. ET, NBC: Brian Kelly had an awful birthday in Ann Arbor after suffering a blowout loss that ended all hopes of another championship chase but needs to pick up the pieces and has a manageable slate that should allow them to win 10 games for a third straight season. The Irish haven’t lost in South Bend since falling to Georgia to open 2017, a span of 15 games. They’re heavily favored against the Hokies. They nearly had their streak of home wins end against USC in a 30-27 win on Oct. 12 but are 3-1 ATS at Notre Dame Stadium. Notre Dame has won seven consecutive games following Michigan week.

Justin Fuente went 3-0 in October to help take some of the heat off, notching upsets over Miami and North Carolina and finding himself a QB in sophomore Hendon Hooker, who has thrown seven TD passes and ran for another score. RB DeShawn McClease has gained 253 yards during their winning streak to key a balanced rushing attack that has helped defenses from coming after Hooker. The Hokies are 11-6 on the road under Fuente and are embarking on the final month of legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster’s career. DT DaShawn Crawford is expected back from a high-ankle sprain.

Georgia (-6.5/45.5) vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS: Saturday’s top matchup is an elimination game as far as the national title race is concerned since the loser here will absorb a second loss and watch the other just about reserve a spot in the SEC Championship. The teams are meeting as Top-10 dwellers for the second straight season and have signed on to keep their series in Jacksonville. The Dawgs have had the tougher schedule thus far and still have to deal with Auburn and Texas A&M but come in relatively healthy. WR Lawrence Cager and corner Tyson Campbell have been cleared to play after injuries, while Florida is also good to go here with DL Jabari Zuniga and LB Jonathan Greenard both set to play after sitting due to ankle injuries.

Since Jake Fromm struggled so much in the loss to South Carolina, he’s under the most pressure to perform at TIAA Bank Field, especially with the Gators back at full strength defensively. He’s 30-6 in Athens and has led the offense to 36 points per game this season but will need to make plays downfield since Georgia’s defense will have to deal with WR Kadarius Toney, who returns to bolster an attack that Kyle Trask has had success sparking over the past few weeks. The Gators have outscored opponents 147-55 in the second half of games. Georgia has scored only one first-quarter touchdown over its last four games and isn’t likely to catch Florida by surprise early, so backing a first-quarter or even a first-half under may be worth a play. Georgia won three straight from ’11-’13, lost three in a row from ’14-’16 and are again looking for a three-game win streak after taking the last two meetings by a combined margin of 88-24.

Miami (FL) at Florida State (-3/49), 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC: This used to be the game of the year in college football in the 1990s and has had a few important chapters written over the past decade-plus, but it has stopped being must-watch over the past few years with both programs sliding. Manny Diaz has coached in a few of these but this will be his first one in the head seat, while FSU’s Willie Taggart lost his first one of these 28-27 as the ‘Noles blew a 20-point lead as a 14-point underdog in South Florida.

Both teams have had incredibly disappointing seasons but can improve to 5-4 with a win, while the loser will slip under .500. The road team is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings but there’s only been one upset over the last eight contests. Fifteen of the last 17 games have been decided by seven points or fewer. Miami will have RB DeeJay Dallas and linebacker Michael Pinckney back after they missed the win over Pitt last week and have Tate Martell available to backup starter Jarren Williams, who fueled last week’s comeback victory with a great final drive. He’ll have WR Jeff Thomas available too. QB N’Kosi Perry is questionable. FSU will have top RB Cam Akers and tackle Dontae Lucas available. If this game comes down to a field goal, the ‘Noles will have senior Ricky Aguayo available after he missed last week’s win due to an illness.

Utah (-3/47.5) at Washington, 4 p.m. ET, FOX: The Huskies are stuck in a spoiler role after suffering losses to Cal, Stanford and most recently, Oregon, which narrowly escaped Husky Stadium two weeks ago. Chris Petersen had gone 20-1 in his last 21 home games entering the season but has already dropped a pair of tight games and still has to deal with Washington State just after Thanksgiving to end the regular season. The Utes come into town intent on revenge after falling in last year’s Pac-12 title game 10-3 to drop a third straight heartbreaker in this series. Despite all the success Kyle Whittingham has had in Salt Lake City, Utah has lost 12 of 13 against U-Dub, winning 34-23 in Seattle in ’15. They lost 33-30 as a 17-point underdog the last time they came through town, so it’s clear the gap has shrunk considering they’re in a road favorite role here.

The Utes will have Tyler Huntley at the controls after he sat with a leg injury, allowing sophomore Jason Shelley a little shine to show that the future at the position is bright. RB Zack Moss was terrific in a demolition of Cal and also looks healthy. Washington is concerned with the availability of WRs Will Fuller, Puka Naca and Chico McClatcher, so Jacob Eason could be down a number of quality targets as he looks to solve another stingy defense after an excellent performance against the Ducks.

Primetime Matchups

Oregon (-4/62) at USC, 8 p.m. ET, FOX: A win at the Coliseum would send the Ducks into a bye week with their national title hopes intact despite that season-opening loss to Auburn. Although the Pac-12 is down, Oregon has a chance to enhance its national profile with a strong finish by holding serve here, sweeping the Arizona schools and then claiming the Civil War prior to a conference title win against either the Utes or these Trojans. Despite all their attrition, USC’s recruiting success has allowed it to survive a myriad of injuries that would have decimated most other programs. There’s buzz that Urban Meyer will eventually be the school’s next coach, but there’s still plenty that can be accomplished this season as the team has picked itself up after suffering road losses to BYU, Washington and Notre Dame.

Kedon Slovis threw for over 400 yards against Colorado and has been excellent, especially since he’s a true freshman. Kurt Warner’s protégé has been particularly strong in the fourth quarter, racking up five touchdown throws and 449 yards on 35-for-45 passing. He’ll be running into the best defense he’s seen to date since facing Utah in a game in which he left with a concussion in addition to the 30-23 win currently making the difference in the South Division. The Ducks will have RB Travis Dye in the fold and have found ways to win tight games that eluded them in Mario Cristobal’s first season. They’ve won two of the last three in L.A. and have picked up victories in four of six.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 10
Joe Williams

College Football Week 10 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 38-11
Against the Spread 28-21

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 28-21
Against the Spread 22-27

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 24-23-2

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 490-124
Against the Spread 315-288-11

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 409-201
Against the Spread 298-301-11

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 292-317-11

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Georgia Southern (+14, ML +500) at Appalachian State, 24-21
Oregon State (+5, ML +170) at Arizona, 56-38
Purdue (+4, ML +160) vs. Nebraska, 31-27
Boston College (+3, ML +140) at Syracuse, 58-27
BYU (+3, ML +135) at Utah State, 42-14

The largest favorites to cover
Navy (-26.5) at Connecticut, 56-10
Liberty (-23.5) at Massachusetts, 63-21
Louisiana (-23) vs. Texas State, 31-3
North Texas (-22.5) vs. UTEP, 52-26
Michigan (-21.5) at Maryland, 38-7

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)
-- SMU-Memphis was front and center on the nationally-televised stage on ABC, and the combatants did not disappoint. The Tigers outlasted the previously unbeaten Mustangs by a 54-48 count, hanging on for the cover. The 'over' (72) cashed yet again for SMU, going to 8-0-1 in their eight games overall. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS across the past seven, and the 'over' has hit in their past six, too. ... Navy rolled Connecticut by a 56-10 count on Friday night, and they're not 4-1 ATS in the past five, and 6-2 ATS across their eight games overall. The 'over' is also 5-1 in Navy's past six. ... East Carolina gave Cincinnati all they could handle in a 46-43 victory which required a game-winning field goal at the buzzer. The lead went back and forth, and ECU led by 12 at the end of three quarters before Cincinnati woke up. ECU has dropped four in a row to slip to 3-6 SU, but they're 4-1 ATS over the past five and the 'over' is 3-0 to make bettors happy.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)
-- Miami-Florida State used to be the most anticipated game of the season in football, but not it is a bit of an afterthought with both teams having down years. The Hurricanes have won and covered three of the past four, moving within one win of bowl eligibility. They have covered in consecutive games for the first time this season, too. As far as FSU is concerned, they're 4-5 SU and 3-5-1 ATS overall. They're still a friend to bettors, however, as the 'under' has connected in six in a row. ... Virginia Tech gave Notre Dame a tremendous fight in South Bend, coming up just short by a 21-20 score, as the Irish bounced back from their beatdown at the Big House last week. The Hokies entered the game averaging 39.7 PPG, and they're still 3-1 ATS over the past four despite Saturday's loss. ... Pittsburgh won an unimpressive 20-10 defensive battle at Georgia Tech. The Panther attained bowl eligibility, moving to 6-3 SU, and they're 3-1 ATS over the past four while hitting the 'under' in three straight, and seven of the nine games overall. ... Boston College went to the Carrier Dome and hammered Syracuse by a 58-27 count, as the Orange have now dropped four in a row while failing to cover five straight. They're 1-7 ATS over the past eight, too.

BIG TEN
-- Illinois moved to within one win of bowl eligibility, taking care of Rutgers by a 38-10 score. The Illini have won three in a row, and they're 4-0 ATS across the past four while the 'under' is 3-0. Are you believing in the Illini now? They might have another low-scoring battle at Michigan State next week. The Illini are creating plenty of turnovers, and the defense has allowed just 13.0 PPG acros the past three. ... Indiana rolled Northwestern at 'The Rock' by a 34-3 score, as the Hoosiers are quietly 7-2 SU/6-3 ATS, while the Wildcats slipped to 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS. Northwestern has scored just six total points across the past three outings, too. ... Michigan didn't have a hangover after impressive win over the Irish, blasting Maryland by a 38-7 score in College Park. The Wolverines have covered three in a row, and they're 5-1 SU/ATS across the past six. They'll have two weeks to prepare for their rivals from East Lansing.

BIG 12
-- The public was all over Les Miles' Kansas side in their rivalry game against Kansas State. That's never a good side to be on. The Wildcats went to Lawrence and belted the Jayhawks 38-10, carrying over momentum from their win over Oklahoma. Suddenly the Wildcats have won and covered three in a row, and they're 3-0 SU/ATS as a favorite this season. The 'under' is also 4-1 across the past five. ... Baylor limped past West Virginia in a sloppy, low-scoring defensive battle on Thursday night, 17-14. Regardless, the Bears are 8-0 SU, while going 4-4 ATS. ... There were just three games in the Big 12, as Oklahoma State topped TCU, 34-27. The Horned Frogs are 1-3 SU/ATS across the past four outings. The 'over' is 5-1 in the past six for TCU, which makes them a favorite of bettors at the window.

CONFERENCE USA
-- Florida Atlantic won and covered on the road for the second straight weekend, topping Western Kentucky 35-24. The Owls are 4-1 ATS in the past five as a favorite. They have scored 28 or more points in each of the past seven outings. FAU is also 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS in five road games this season while the 'over' is 3-1-1 in those battles. ... Charlotte won at home as underdogs, topping Middle Tennessee by a 34-20 count. The 49ers have won back-to-back games for the first time this season, moving to 4-5 SU/ATS with a winnable road trip to UTEP on the horizon. ... North Texas had one of their most impressive wins of the season, stomping UTEP by a 52-26 count. The cover slapped the brakes on an 0-4 ATS skid. The 'over' has now cashed in five in a row for the Mean Green.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)
-- Bowling Green welcomed winless Akron and topped the Zips 35-6. Akron was just a four-point underdogs in this one despite the fact they're now 0-9 SU/ATS. In fact, they're the only FBS team yet to cover this season. ... Buffalo went on the road and crushed Eastern Michigan by a 43-14 count. The Bulls inched closer to bowl eligibility at 5-4 SU, winning their third in a row while covering for the fourth straight. They'll travel to Kent State on Nov. 14, as mid-week MAC games behind in the upcoming week. ... Central Michigan punished Northern Illinois 48-10, as the Chippewas fired out to a 21-3 lead after one quarter and never looked back. The total in this game was 49, and there were 48 points on the board at halftime. A scoreless third quarter scared over bettors, but eventually it came through in the fourth. The Chips are now 4-1 SU/ATS in the past five outings, and they're 2-0/ATS as a home underdog this season.

MOUNTAIN WEST
-- San Jose State put a scare into Boise State, leading for a good chunk of the game. However, the Broncos outscored the Spartans 21-8 in the fourth quarter to narrowly escape with a 52-42 victory. The Spartans covered the 16.5-point spread, and they're now 4-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season, including two straight-up victories. ... Fresno State headed for the islands and topped Hawaii, 41-38. The Warriors missed a chance to attain bowl eligibility, although they still have three more chances to secure that sixth win. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four for Hawaii. ... It wasn't pretty, but Nevada posted a 21-10 victory over New Mexico as the 'under' (57) easily cashed. The Wolf Pack have had their issues at times, especially defensively, but they're within one win of bowl eligibility. Overall they're 2-5-1 ATS across the past eight, with the 'under' 3-0 in the past three. ... BYU headed up to Logan and blasted Utah State, 42-14. The Aggies are leaking oil after a 3-1 SU/ATS start, going just 1-3 SU across the past four, and 1-4 ATS over the past five.

PAC-12
-- Some folks saw the Oregon State-Arizona game as a trap for the Wildcats, and they were right. The high-octane Beavers piled up 28 points in the second quarter and never looked back, winning 56-38. The Beavers are now 4-4 SU overall, and 6-1 ATS across the past seven outings. ... Oregon went down to the Coliseum and smashed USC, 56-24. The Ducks have won eight in a row, while hitting the 'over' in three in a row and covering three of the past four. More importantly, the Pac-12's playoff hopes are alive and well. ... UCLA posted a 31-14 victory over Colorado, winning and covering for the third straight outing. They're 4-5 SU, but have a chance at a bowl still, and an outside chance at the Pac-12 Championship game if they can win out. ... Utah went to Washington and won 33-28, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive. The Utes are the team nobody seems to be talking about, but they're a sleeper. They have won and covered five in a row since a seven-point loss at USC on Sept. 20.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)
-- Georgia topped Florida by a 24-17 count in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville. The 'under' cashed in the top-10 battle, which is now 6-3 in nine games overall for the Gators. The under has cashed in three straight for the Bulldogs, too, and five of the past six overall. ... Auburn won an uninspiring 20-14 game against Mississippi, as the Tigers failed to cover for just the second time in nine tries this season. The 'under' is 3-1 over the past four, as the offense has scored 20 or less in each of those under games. ... South Carolina topped Vanderbilt in a low-scoring 24-7 score, as the Gamecocks suffered several injuries. They still covered, going 2-0 SU/ATS in the past two at home as a double-digit favorite.

SUN BELT
-- Georgia Southern stunned Appalachian State 24-21, more than likely ending their chances at a New Year's Day bowl game unless they can rebound and pick up a win at South Carolina next week. Even then, it might be an uphill climb. After going 5-1 ATS in the first six outings they are 0-2 ATS in the past two. ... Coastal Carolina edged Troy 36-35 as the Chanticleers moved to 4-4 SU/5-3 ATS, needing two games for bowl eligibility.

Bad Beats

-- If you were holding a total ticket in the Illinois-Rutgers game, it was a bummer for those with a total of 48. At 14:09 of the fourth quarter, the Illini went up 38-10. There were no more points the rest of the way, as most tickets ended in an unfulfilling push. Technically, it was a 'good' beat for those who bet the under.

-- With a total of 57, under bettors were looking good in Nebraska-Purdue with just 30 points on the board heading into the fourth quarter. With 6:50 remaining in regulation, the Boilermakers took a 24-20 lead, still looking pretty good. Nebraska scored with 4:21 to go, re-taking the lead, and Purdue went back ahead 31-27 with 1:08 left to deal under bettors a sour taste.

-- With a total of 55 and a line of 37.5, Texas A&M led 45-7 with under five to go. The Aggies were inexplicably passing, and Texas-San Antonio had the 58-yard pick six to cut the lead to 45-14, pushing the game over while gaining the backdoor cover for the Roadrunners.

-- Over bettors (78.5) in UTEP-North Texas were saying bad words. With 3:16 to go, UTEP scored to pull within 52-26. They elected to go for two, failing on the pass attempt. An extra point would have pushed the total over. Ugh.

[Udog]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 10
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the 10th weekend of the college football season to start November. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Coastal Carolina (+2) 36, Troy 35: It was clear early on that this Sun Belt game would be a high-scoring back-and-forth affair with five touchdowns combined in the first quarter. Coastal Carolina scored 11 points out the break to lead by seven, but Troy answered to tie the game heading into the final frame on a spread that was near-even most of the week with the Trojans closing as a slight favorite. Troy got the ball back in the fourth and connected for a touchdown to go up by seven with just over eight minutes remaining. The Chanticleers couldn’t answer, but pinned Troy deep and got the ball back with over two minutes remaining though having already used up all three timeouts. Bryce Carpenter and Coastal Carolina faced only one third down in an 11-play drive resulting in a touchdown and playing to win Coastal Carolina went for two. Pass interference was called on the initial failed conversion, but inched closer on the retry CJ Marable raced in to take the lead and secure the clear cover for Coastal Carolina.

Pittsburgh (-9½) 20, Georgia Tech 10: Pittsburgh had a nearly 2-to-1 yardage edge while holding Georgia Tech below 200 yards for the game, but the Yellow Jackets got a third quarter field goal following a blocked punt to trail by only seven. The Yellow Jackets were poised to tie the game reaching 1st-and-goal from the 6-yard-line, but fumbled on 3rd down with a 79-yard return setting up a Pittsburgh field goal on the first play of the fourth quarter to put the Panthers back up by 10, past a spread that jumped from -7½ to -9½. Pittsburgh couldn’t put the game away missing a 44-yard field goal later in the fourth but Georgia Tech’s next play was an interception. The Yellow Jackets would punt deep in their own territory with more than six minutes remaining and never held the ball again as Pittsburgh escaped with the win and narrow cover.

Purdue (+4) 31, Nebraska 27: Adrian Martinez returned for Nebraska and fueled a 10-0 first quarter for the Cornhuskers. By halftime, Purdue led 14-10 however, scoring with 14 seconds before the break on 3rd down to complete a 96-yard drive. Nebraska took a 3-point lead early in the fourth quarter and still led by three with about four minutes remaining after an exchange of touchdowns with a road favorite spread that was commonly at -3 upon release before sliding upward to -4 by kickoff. Purdue went 82 yards for the go-ahead touchdown with just over a minute remaining relying on Aidan O’Connell at quarterback after Jack Plummer was injured again earlier in the fourth quarter.

North Texas (-22) 52, UTEP 26: North Texas pulled away late in the second quarter and led by 18 through three quarters. A touchdown with about nine minutes remaining put the Mean Green in front by 25 and past the heavy favorite spread. UTEP would put together an 11-play touchdown drive ending with just over three minutes to go to sit behind by only 18. That margin would hold after North Texas took a knee at the UTEP 11-yard-line without adding points.

Arkansas State (-1) 48, UL-Monroe 41: The Warhawks led 21-3 early in this game before four touchdowns from Arkansas State in the span of just over 12 minutes in the second quarter. UL-Monroe would rally to tie the game by the end of the third quarter, but the Red Wolves would strike first in the fourth and would add a second touchdown in the middle of the fourth to pull away. The Warhawks got back within seven and crossed midfield on its final drive before running out of time.

Tulane (-10) 38, Tulsa 26: Tulsa led 13-10 in the second quarter, but would be down 31-16 by the end of the third quarter with a defensive score for Tulane part of the turnaround. The Golden Hurricane would climb within five with 10 minutes to go but on 4th-and-goal with fewer than five minutes to go Tulane was able to cross the goal line and slip past the favorite spread with a 12-point final margin as a torturous run of late-game stumbles continued for Tulsa.

Utah (-3) 33, Washington 28: Washington led 21-13 late in the third quarter before a pick-6 put Utah right back in the game. The Utes missed on the two-point conversion, but added a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns to suddenly lead by 12. Washington would score a late touchdown, but it wasn’t enough as the Utes avenged the Pac-12 championship loss from last season while stealing the cover as well in a game that Washington didn’t trail in until the fourth quarter.

South Carolina (-14½) 24, Vanderbilt 7: The Gamecocks led 14-7 through three quarters despite dominating the production in the game. A fourth quarter field goal after an interception calmed the upset risk and after forcing a punt the Gamecocks put the game away with a 76-yard touchdown drive completed with about six minutes remaining. Vanderbilt had another interception on its next possession as South Carolina escaped with the win and the narrow favorite cover.

Memphis (-5½) 54, SMU 48: The showcase game in the AAC Saturday night lived up to its billing much of the way before Memphis pulled away late in the third quarter. Down 16 entering the fourth quarter, SMU was able to get eight to cut the margin in half, but about a minute later, the Tigers were back in the end zone. Memphis would go up 54-32 with about nine minutes remaining but SMU delivered a long run to stay in the game. Down 14 with just over two minutes to go, SMU found the end zone and again went for two, converting a third straight two-pointer with this late conversion having a big impact on plenty of folks with late week numbers of -6 or -6½ on the Tigers.

Nevada (-4) 21, New Mexico 10: The Wolf Pack scored a pair of touchdowns in the span of three minutes in the second quarter to lead by seven at the break. New Mexico managed a field goal in the third to trail by four, even with the closing spread though lines as high as -6½ and as low as -3 were possible at various times. Early in the fourth quarter, New Mexico reached the Nevada 11-yard-line but failed going for it on 4th-and-1. A series of punts followed before a solid return sparked a short-field Nevada touchdown drive to go up by 11 with just over five minutes remaining. New Mexico’s final drive reached Nevada territory before four straight incomplete passes for a Lobos team not used to throwing.

Fresno State (+2) 41, Hawai’i 38: The Warriors led by 10 at halftime, getting 48-yard touchdown 23 seconds before the break. In the third quarter, Fresno State took over, outscoring Hawai’i 17-0 to take a 31-24 lead into the fourth and a few minutes into the final frame the Bulldogs went up by 14 after an interception. Hawai’i turned in a long drive to answer but came up empty despite reaching 1st-and-goal from the 4. Getting the ball back with fewer than four minutes remaining Hawai’i got back within seven and then saw Fresno State fumble on the kickoff. Five plays later, the game was tied with just over a minute remaining with a roughing the passer call aiding the drive led by Chevan Cordeiro, who took over for Cole McDonald earlier in the fourth quarter. The Bulldogs were left with enough time and with limited resistance. Fresno State reached long field goal range. On 3rd-and-10, Fresno State picked up 13 yards to make it a more manageable kick and Cesar Silva was good from 37 yards to seal the minor upset as time expired.