NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (Thur., Oct. 17 - Mon., Oct. 21)

[Udog]

NFL Week 7 cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

New Orleans running back Alvin Kamara, even more important during Drew Brees' absence, won't play Sunday at Chicago. The Saints are now 4-point underdogs in a key NFC clash at Soldier Field.

NFL Week 7 has a dozen Sunday games, followed by a Monday nighter in the shadow of the Big Apple. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

INJURY IMPACT

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: The most noteworthy injury news emerging from Friday was that running back Alvin Kamara (knee, ankle) will not play Sunday at Chicago. “We moved a full point on this one, and dropped the total by 2 points,” Wilkinson said. The Saints opened +4, quickly tightened to +3, then rose to +4 by Friday afternoon, mostly on the Kamara update. The total moved from 39 early in the week to 37 Friday.

CHICAGO BEARS: Quarterback Mitch Trubisky missed Chicago’s Week 5 loss to Oakland, in a game played in London. But after a Week 6 bye, there’s a chance Trubisky returns Sunday from a separated shoulder/slight torn labrum. He’s listed as questionable at home against New Orleans. “It looks like he’s gonna play now,” Wilkinson said, noting that was part of the calculus – along with the Saints’ Kamara being out – in going from Bears -3.5 to -4 Friday.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: Wideout Davante Adams (toe) is out for the second straight game, as he won’t play at home Sunday against Oakland. “Green Bay picked up running back Ryan Grant recently, so we didn’t adjust the line based off the Adams injury. However, the line has dropped 2 full points this week, to Packers -4.5.” Adams’ absence didn’t impact the total, either, as it remained at 47, where it’s been since Tuesday, after opening at 46.5.

DALLAS COWBOYS: Wideout Amari Cooper (ankle, quad) is questionable for the Sunday night showdown against the visiting Eagles. But that didn’t move the needle Friday at The SuperBook, where the line remained Dallas -2.5, with a total of 49.

NEW YORK GIANTS: Running back Saquon Barkley (ankle) missed three games, but he wasn’t even on Friday’s injury report, so he is fully expected to play Sunday against the visiting Cardinals. “We moved from Giants -2.5 to -3 on the Barkley news.”

LOS ANGELES RAMS: Todd Gurley (quad) is another running back set to return, after missing last week’s home loss to the 49ers. “No move for Gurley, because we already expected it.” The Rams are 3-point favorites at Atlanta, with a total of 55.


Weather Watch

BALTIMORE AT SEATTLE: There’s a 66 percent chance of rain for this Sunday showdown. “We always keep rain in mind when there’s a game in Seattle, so this total is lower than it would be somewhere else,” Wilkinson said of a number that opened at 49.5, peaked at 50.5, then dropped 2 points to 48.5. “It would be more than 50 on a dry field.”

SAN FRANCISCO AT WASHINGTON: The D.C. area is highly likely to see Sunday showers, with an 87 percent chance of rain at FedEx Field. “The total dropped 2.5 points to 40.5 due to the weather.” The spread remained at 49ers -9.5. “It possibly could’ve been 10 in good weather.”

ARIZONA AT NEW YORK GIANTS: There’s a 51 percent chance of rain Sunday at MetLife Stadium, but The SuperBook made no adjustments. The Giants are at -3, with a total of 50.5.


Pros vs. Joes

HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS: The SuperBook opened this game at pick and moved to Colts -1.5. “The pros are on the Colts, but the Joes are betting the Texans. The Texans beat the Chiefs, so the public thinks they’re great, but that was an injured Patrick Mahomes. The sharps think the Colts at home are the better team.”

NEW ENGLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: This line bounced between 9.5 and 10 a few times within the first two hours of opening on Sunday, then settled at Patriots -9.5 all week. “Pros are betting the Jets, but the Joes are always betting the Patriots. Sam Darnold has the Jets’ offense moving, and they are looking to upset their division rival at home.”


Reverse Line Moves

HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS: Wilkinson said Pros vs. Joes contests often lead to reverse line moves, as well. That’s the case here, with more money on the Texans, but respected cash on the Colts leading The SuperBook to move the line from pick to Indy -1.5.

NEW ENGLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: It’s the same story here. Per usual, there’s more money on the Patriots, but respected money on the Jets at +10 has this line stuck at New England -9.5, rather than increasing beyond the key number.

NEW ORLEANS AT CHICAGO: Wilkinson said there’s a case to be made that this matchup falls into the category of reverse line move. “The straight bets are pretty even, but we do have more parlay money on the Saints, and the line has gone the opposite direction.”

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 7
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Bengals are 11-0 ATS (5.95 ppg) since Dec 14, 2008 as a dog coming off a road game with less than 300 total yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS (-6.50 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 on the road coming off a loss when facing a team above .500 on the season.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Texans are 0-7-1 ATS (-5.94 ppg) since Oct 25, 2015 coming off a win where Deandre Hopkins had at least nine receptions.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Saints are 11-0 OU (17.27 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 off a game as a dog that went under the total by at least seven points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Colts are 0-10 OU (-9.40 ppg) since Nov 12, 2017 in the first 16 weeks of the season playing a team over .500.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Colts are 13-0 ATS (+5.88 ppg) at home after a game as a road dog in which they converted at least five third downs.

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 7
Joe Williams

We're heading to Sunday Week 7 of the National Football League regular season. Primetime games have been a bummer for 'over' bettors so far this season. The Thursday Night Football game between the Kansas City Chiefs-Denver Broncos went well under to kick off the new week, too. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went down with a dislocated kneecap and he is supposed to miss several weeks, so keep an eye on the totals of Kansas City games going forward. With veteran backup QB Matt Moore under center, the Chiefs offense won't be nearly as effective.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 6 7-7 8-6 3-9-2
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 43-49 39-52-1 42-46-4

The books were well in the black for a third consecutive week even though the totals were split right down the middle at 7-7. The Carolina Panthers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game in England hit the over, which is now 2-0 in the two International Series games this season. We'll get a week break from games in Jolly Ol' England before the Cincinnati Bengals-Los Angeles Rams meet in Wembley Stadium.

Bettors looking for points in the second-half in Week 7 were stifled as the under went 9-3-2 in the final 30 minutes. Simiar to the overall under (49-43) results on the season, the under holds advantages in both the first-half (52-39-1) and second-half (46-42-4).

Division Bell

We had four more divisional battles in Week 6, and all three of the divisional battles on North American soil hit the 'under', with the only over happening at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium between the Bucs and Panthers in the 26th game played in London since 2007. If you include Thursday's outcome between the Chiefs and Broncos, the under is now 20-10 (67%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 6
Carolins vs. Tampa Bay (London) Over (47.5) Carolina 37, Tampa Bay 26
Cincinnati at Baltimore Under (47) Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 17
San Francisco at L.A. Rams Under (50) San Francisco 20, L.A. Rams 7
Detroit at Green Bay (MNF) Under (47) Green Bay 23, Detroit 22

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 7 as of Saturday morning.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati: 47 ½ to 43 ½
San Francisco at Washington: 43 to 40
L.A. Rams at Atlanta: 52 ½ to 54 ½
Philadelphia at Dallas: 47 ½ to 49 ½
Baltimore at Seattle: 50 ½ to 49
New Orleans at Chicago: 38 ½ to 37

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 7 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.

San Francisco at Washington: Under 92%
L.A. Chargers at Tennessee: Over 89%
New England at N.Y. Jets (MNF): Over 87%
Philadelphia at Dallas (SNF): Over 86%
Arizona at N.Y. Giants: Over 83%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (70 percent) in the Cincinnati-Baltimore matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in L.A. Rams-Atlanta (67 percent) battle on Sunday.

Handicapping Week 7

Week 6 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 1-3 10-19
NFC vs. NFC 2-0 11-8
AFC vs. AFC 1-2 9-6
AFC vs. NFC 3-2 14-15

Other Week 7 Action

Jacksonville at Cincinnati: This game is an interesting one to watch, as the winless Bengals have a slew of injuries in their secondary, including DBs William Jackson III (shoulder) and Dre Kirkpatrick (knee). They might get CB Darqueze Dennard (knee) back from the PUP list, but they still have issues. The Bengals have actually been middle of the road against the pass, but brutal against the run, ranking last in the NFL at 184.5 yards per game. They're allowing 426.0 total yards per game to rank 31st, too. On the flip side, the rank 11th running the ball with 127.5 yards per game. Jacksonville's offense might be able to put up some big points. They have allowed 58 points in their past two road games, both overs, so this is an interesting game to watch.

L.A. Rams at Atlanta: Former NFC West Division rivals meet in Atlanta when the Rams swoop into town to battle the Falcons. The Rams are expected to see CB Jalen Ramsey make his team debut after being acquired this week. He'll be a welcome addition with CB Aqib Talib (ribs) out indefinitely. The Rams rank sixth in the NFL in passing yards (272.5), and the Falcons are 27th in total yards allowed (388.8) and passing yards allowed (271.2), while allowing 31.0 PPG to check in 31st in the NFL. This could be another track meet under the roof.

Oakland at Green Bay: The Raiders hit the road to ball the Packers in an AFC-NFC matchup. The Raiders have hit the 'over' in all three of their games away from the Bay Area, going 2-0 in their two true road games with another over in London in Week 5 last time out. For the Packers, they'll again be without WR Davante Adams (toe), while WRs Geronimo Allison (chest) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle) are considered doubtful. The Pack are likely to have quite a few unheralded and inexperienced receivers going, which might mean more of a ground-based attack. A heavy run game means a better chance of an under.

Arizona at N.Y. Giants: The Cardinals and Giants have a line hovering around 50 for their battle between former NFC East rivals. It could be a high-scoring affair, as the Giants get a huge boost from the return of RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) and TE Evan Engram (knee). As such, the Giants offense could be fairly prolific, especially against a Cardinals defense which ranks 30th in total yards allowed (414.0), 30th in passing yards allowed (281.2) and 26th in rushing yards allowed (132.8). Arizona has scored 22.3 PPG, while allowing 28.5 PPG. Teams from the Pacific Time Zone playing in the Eastern Time Zone this season have posted an over in six of 11 occasions, and the over is 6-3 if you take the Chargers out of the equation (two unders in two games).

L.A. Chargers at Tennessee: A pair of defensive-minded clubs battle in Nashville. The Chargers and Titans have each hit the under in five straight games. Los Angeles ranks seventh in total yards allowed (321.7) and 10th in points allowed (19.7 PPG), while Tennessee ranks eighth in total yards allowed (321.8), sixth in passing yards allowed (217.3) and fifth in points allowed (15.3 PPG). However, they're a very ordinary 15th in rushing yards allowed (104.5). Watch this, as RB Melvin Gordon rushed for a career-high 196 yards against Tennessee in a 2016 meeting. The Titans will give QB Ryan Tannehill his first Tennessee start, as he replaced the ineffective QB Marcus Mariota.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with spreads of nine or more points for Week 7, with one home team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 41 to 44 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half. Two of the games are divisional battles, too.

San Francisco at Washington (1:00 p.m. ET): The 49ers will be playing in their third game in the Eastern Time Zone, splitting the over/under in those games. They scored 31 points in the Week 1 game at Tampa Bay, and 41 in the Week 2 game at Cincinnati, and now they'll face a one-win Redskins side. On the flip side, the Redskins have allowed 31, 31 and 33 in their three home games, hitting the 'over' in two of those outings. As an underdog of nine or more points, the Redskins are allowing 32.5 PPG in two outings, too. One thing to note, however, is that the 49ers have hit the 'under' in each of the two games they have been favored, while hitting the under in four of their five games overall.

Miami at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET): The Dolphins will play in just their second road game of the season, and they hit the 'under' in that lone road trip, falling 31-6 at Dallas in Week 3. The Dolphins scored a season-high 16 points in Week 6, hitting the 'under' for the fourth consecutive game. They have scored 10, 0, 6, 10 and 16 in five games, averaging an NFL-worst 8.4 PPG. The Dolphins turn back to QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, looking for a little 'Fitz-magic' against his former team. The Bills are the only team in the NFL yet to see an 'over' result, as the 'under' is a perfect 5-0, including 2-0 vs. AFC East foes. They allowed just 16 points in each of those divisional games.

New England at N.Y. Jets (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): (See Below)

Under the Lights

Philadelphia at Dallas (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football under has cashed in all seven games so far this season, including Philly's trip to Atlanta in Week 2, and a 12-10 loss by Dallas in New Orleans in Week 4. The Cowboys have played two divisional games, cashing the 'over' in each. They are averaging 33.0 PPG in those two games, while allowing 19.0 PPG. The Eagles hit the 'over' in their only NFC East tilt so far, a 32-27 win over Washington in Week 1. In their three road games the Eagles have scored 20 or more points in each game while allowing 29.7 PPG, hitting the 'over' in two of the three games.

New England at N.Y. Jets (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Patriots are heavy favorites on the road for the Monday nighter against the Jets, who looked like a new program in a Week 6 win over Dallas with QB Sam Darnold back under center after missing a few games due to a bout with mononucleosis. These teams met in Week 3 when Luke Falk was the starting QB, and the Jets offense was blanked in New England, with the Jets scoring two defensive touchdowns in the 30-14 loss, a game which went 'over' by one point, and probably should not have. The 'under' is 8-2 in the past 10 against AFC East teams, while the under is 11-5 in New York's past 16 inside the division. The under has hit in six of the past seven in this series, and four of the past five in New Jersey.

[Udog]

SNF - Eagles at Cowboys
Matt Blunt

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The first potential 'over' of the year on SNF came up short by the hook last week, as a missed FG by the Chargers early in that game stung, along with the fact it took three quarters for the Chargers to look like they were interested in playing football. But I guess when your home field is actually a soccer stadium, the best way to pay homage to that is to look like a soccer team and put up a big fat zero on the scoreboard for the first 45 minutes of the game like the Chargers did.

This week we get a high stakes division game between the Eagles and Cowboys – the two teams that will likely battle it out for the NFC East crown by season's end – and the winner of this first meeting will get an early leg up with a little more than half the season left.

Both the Eagles and Cowboys come into this prime time spot off of disappointing losses – for very different reasons – as Philly got lit up and blown out by Minnesota last week, while the Cowboys (minus 2/5 of their OL) couldn't beat the lowly Jets in QB Sam Darnold's return. Yet, it's the Dallas loss that's making all the headlines this week because of the overall quality of opponent they lost too, as the annual October/November tradition of the sky is falling in Dallas has arrived in 2019.

HC Jason Garrett is always on the hot seat after a loss or two, talk about QB Dak Prescott being a franchise guy or being worth a big extension is always met with negativity after a loss, and discussion about if the team is actually 'good enough' or who many thought they really were coming into the year dominates mainstream airwaves. Considering this is an annual occurrence for the Dallas Cowboys, it makes you wonder why the people in the great city of Dallas don't walk around wearing helmets every day during football season for how frequently the falling sky above their heads tickles their hair follicles. But nothing is ever as bad (or good) as it seems for teams in the NFL, and with two sides to every story, it's time to dive into this game.

Total Talk

To be quite honest, there isn't much to like about this total at all. Obviously many bettors out there are waiting for the injury report on both sides before diving in, as the Eagles secondary (and defense as a whole) has been ravaged by injuries all year, while concerns about those two lineman on Dallas remain.

But from all reports it sounds like the Eagles secondary will be a bit healthier this week, and those two Dallas O-lineman should be back in action as well. They were active in warm-up vs the Jets last week and were kept out for precautionary reasons – likely because it was a non-conference game vs the Jets and Philly was on deck – so I would venture a guess that they are back in action. That would suggest a lean to the high side of this total – one that's already been bet up to 49 most places after opening at 48.5 – and if forced to make a play on this total that's probably where I'd go.

But I don't know if it's because of all the QB injuries the entire league has dealt with this year, or if the overall caliber of offensive play is just down in 2019, but the 'unders' have been the side in general with totals in 2019, and they still are perfect on SNF. There has been plenty of bad QB play all around, especially under the bright lights of prime time football, and until that changes I'm not looking to back the high side of a total on SNF.

Side Spiel

Speaking of bad QB play, while everyone questions Dak Prescott and his ability to perform at that position at this level, it's funny to me that the entire betting world ignores even giving a speck of criticism to Carson Wentz. Eagles fans will tell you he's Houdini back there in the pocket at times, but his best escape act appears to be avoiding criticism at all cost. Sure, his injury-plagued career is something that does give him the benefit of the doubt in a sense, but his best escape act is always avoiding a bad word said about his play.

Eagles fans will tell you that injuries, poor coaching/play-calling by HC Doug Pederson on offense and DC Jim Schwartz on defense, a poor secondary, poor drafting in terms of lack of depth, and just all-around mistakes by the supporting cast around Wentz is to blame for Philly's struggles in games this year.

And while the injury complaint is legitimate because no NFL team can thrive with injury concerns – especially when the bulk of them come to one position group of the team – I don't understand how Wentz himself gets a free pass in all of it. Can you tell me what Wentz has won at this level? What big games? Any?

Sure, Wentz caught lightning in a bottle with his play in 2017 before injuring his knee, but it's not like the Eagles went through a gauntlet of opponents in those first 13 games that year. The poor drafting/lack of depth wasn't an issue for them then when Nick Foles came in as a replacement, nor was the play-calling and issue on either side of the ball. The Eagles supporting cast was clearly good enough to go on and win a Super Bowl with Foles that year, and all of that was good enough for them in the latter half of 2018 when Wentz went on the shelf again and they nearly got back to the NFC Championship game. Yes, a few faces have come and gone during those two years, but this Eagles core went a combined 10-3 SU when Foles was under center in 2017 and 2018. Where were all the complaints about everything about this Eagles organization other than the QB position then?

In fact, you take away that 'lightning in a bottle' 2017 season for Wentz, the guy comes into this Dallas game this week with a 15-18 SU record in games he's started. You're telling me that his teammates haven't 'played' for him that often? Come on now. Wentz is the Dorian Gray of the NFL – he looks the part at 6'5 with a big arm, but he's hiding a lot of ugliness underneath the surface if you ask me.

Furthermore, we don't have to go too far back in the time machine to think of another NFC East QB who has plenty of comparables in terms of career arc. This guy was drafted 2nd overall like Wentz, the team gave up 4+ high draft picks to move up to that spot to take him, he caught lightning in a bottle in one (and only one) season where he made a Pro Bowl, had said season cut short by an ACL injury, and watched as his replacement took the reigns of that team and parlayed success there – with the same supporting cast and/or coaching staff – into a big contract (there or elsewhere) just like Nick Foles did. Oh and he also took too many unnecessary hits inside and outside of the pocket like Wentz does.

Anyone got the answer?

How about Robert Griffin III.

RG III's 2012 season in Washington was quite similar to what Wentz's 2017 was (minus the team winning the Super Bowl) and everyone knew then and in the subsequent years that RG III was not a viable long-term starting QB option in the NFL. And while the simple eye test would give Wentz a huge leg up over RG III (admittedly Wentz is much better in that he can accurately throw and has the size of the prototypical NFL QB) it's also why I refer to him as Dorian Gray. His best attribute is simply looking the part of a legit NFL QB and nobody sees the ugly truth that's hidden away in the attic. Wentz just isn't all he's cracked up to be, and for whatever reason avoids taking heat for it as the blame game gets pushed towards anyone and everyone else involved with that Eagles team.

You can argue that guys around him don't play for him, but even if we were to take that as truth, that's just as damning on Wentz for his inability to connect with his teammates and be a leader. But nobody ever wants to say that. Philly had to choose him over Foles because of age alone, and now they are saddled with Wentz for big money, who's shown throughout his young career that he's not even consistent at having the best ability any NFL player could have: availability.

So while the entire world may be spending this week ripping Dallas, questioning how legit they are, and not wanting anything to do with them after losing to a bad team like the Jets, I've got no problem pounding them against the number this week. For one, it's a great spot to bounce back, and two, the Eagles are a team that continues to be thought of as a decent to great team (when healthy).

Injuries are their biggest issue right now and there is no denying that, but yes, play-calling in a specific instant, or specific game, can be suspect, but it's not been a major concern for the better part of a few years now. If it was, or if the supporting cast around the Eagles was, Philly wouldn't have had all the late-season success they had the past two years when Foles was at the helm. Let's not forget that it was Foles who suggested “Philly Philly” to HC Doug Pederson in the Super Bowl too.

Final Thoughts

Dallas isn't without it's warts either as the jury's still out on Prescott and rightfully so. But when you've got an offensive line like the one they've got, and a RB like they do, there is plenty for an 'average' QB to lean on to get the job done. The Cowboys are at home – a place where home field advantage for them has grown to league average the past year or two – and went the cautious route last week to make sure they were as healthy as could be for this week's game, even if it meant getting needlessly slandered by the masses for a week.

At 2-4 ATS against the spread this year, and allowing 27 or more points in four of their of six games this year, this Eagles team is one that deserves to continue to be bet against for the foreseeable future in my opinion. And losing in Dallas on Sunday night likely will be the beginning of the end for their chase of a division title in 2019, that is unless the Cowboys start to become a soap opera like they are known to do and let the Eagles back into the hunt.

In Dorian Gray, his true image eventually gets exposed to the world, and until that happens with Wentz and this Eagles team, I'll continue to look to take these short spreads that Philadelphia opponents are getting.

Best Bet: Dallas -2.5

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


POINTS TOUGH TO COME BY

The Miami quarterback situation isn't getting better anytime soon. They are switching abck to Ryan Fitzpatrick who now he has to go on the road and face a Bills defense that sits third in DVOA defense and held Tom Brady to his worst performance since 2006. The ‘Fins are 17-point underdogs against a team that is averaging 18 points a game. Maybe their team total of 11.5 is too high.

Buffalo’s Josh Allen has relied on his defense to hide his passing inabilities as he has thrown five interceptions in his last eight quarters of football. Allen’s offense is a bottom-10 unit in yards per drive and is scoring touchdowns in the red zone at an unsustainable rate that is bound to regress.

Get down on the Under 42 as we doubt Miami will reach their team total of 12 and Buffalo won’t be pushing the pace with the lead.


IS THERE A NEXT MAN UP?

Oakland Raiders top wide receiver, Tyrell Williams, has been ruled out for Sunday’s matchup with the Green Bay Packers and tight and Darren Waller had a mid-week downgrade on Thursday. Even if Waller does suit up, that leaves Trevor Davis, Hunter Renfrow, Keelan Doss, Devon White and Zay Jones. Did you even notice that one of those names is a 56-year-old World Series champion? Neither did we.

Davis, Renfrow and Doss make up 16 percent of Oakland’s entire receiving yards this year. So what is the appropriate response from the Packers defense against such a sad sack of receivers? Stack the box. Green Bay sits in 26th in DVOA rush defense but held the Lions to 2.6 yards per carry last week at home.

With Josh Jacobs’ rush total at 75.5 and the possibility that the Packers make the Raiders abandon the run, we are taking the Under.


KICKING IT IN WASHINGTON

With rain in the forecast and the heavy winds expected at FedEx Field in Washington, we aren’t foreseeing optimal kicking conditions for the 49ers and Washington game Sunday. With both teams averaging just over two field goals a game combined, this is a great spot for us to exploit some kicking markets.

The Under 3.5 field goals is a great play, but at -189, we are going to pass. Instead, we will look at the longest field goal Over/Under prop bet of 45.5 yards.

San Fran kicker Robbie Gould has made just two of his last seven field-goal attempts and missed or got his kicked blocked twice on kicks under 48 yards.

Washington’s leg, Dustin Hopkins, has only attempted four field goals in the last three weeks, making from 21, 21 and 35 but missing at 43.

Go ahead and feel comfortable with the Under 45.5 yards for the longest field goal.


DARRELL AND THE HENDERSONS

Things are getting thin at running back for Sean McVay and the L.A. Rams. No. 2 back Malcolm Brown has been ruled out for Sunday's matchup with Atlanta, leaving the far-from-healthy Todd Gurley and intriguing rookie Darrell Henderson.

Henderson could see his heaviest workload of the year as L.A. may manage Gurley’s reps yet again, especially after missing Week 6. The second-highest-paid RB has seen more than 15 carries just once this year and hasn’t eclipsed 65 yards rushing since Week 1.

The third-round rookie, Henderson, finally saw the field last week playing 32 percent of the snaps behind Brown with Gurley out. Henderson ran for 39 yards on six carries and could be in line for double-digit touches, albeit versus a tough Atlanta Falcons rush defense that leads the league in stuffs.

Henderson’s markets will open closer to kickoff once Brown is officially ruled out and Gurley is ruled active. We will be looking to get Henderson’s rushing total at any number below 50 and hitting the Over, and if his rushing attempt market is available, take the Over on 8.5 and below.


ACTION JACKSON

The Seattle Seahawks allowed Baker Mayfield to rush for 35 yards and a score last week. Mayfield had zero yards rushing coming into that game and the 35 yards were his most since Week 5 of last year. This week versus Lamar Jackson, things will get infinitely more difficult for the Seattle defense and containing the opposing QB.

Jackson cleared his rushing total of 61.5 yards last week in the first half en route to 152 yards on 19 carries. Jackson has amassed 288 yards on the ground over the last three weeks and has his sights on this week’s total of 68.5.

With the Ravens’ only viable receiving threat likely sitting this one out, go get the Over on Jackson’s 68.5-yard total as Lamar will want to show the MVP frontrunner what he’s got.


J-HOW DO YOU DO?

There was a lot of talk about Jordan Howard taking control of the Philadelphia Eagles’ backfield two weeks ago after putting up big numbers in Weeks 4 through 5, but 49 yards on 13 carries against a top-4 DVOA rush defense in Week 6 seems to have killed that momentum. But this may give Howard backers some value as the hype has died down even though he managed 63 percent of the offensive snaps last week — the most snap percentage by any Philly back this year.

Howard will face the Dallas Cowboys’ No. 19 rush DVOA defense in the Sunday nighter. Jerry and ‘Boys have lost three-straight games and over that time have allowed a 4.3 yards per carry and five touchdowns to running backs. Howard will have the best chance to hit paydirt as he has out-touched his teammate, Miles Sanders, 15-to-5 in red-zone touches over the last three weeks.

We like Howard’s anytime TD as well as the Over on his 50.5 rushing yards. For the record, our man J-How is averaging 13 rushes for 59 yards and one score since Week 3.


WINDY CITY PASSING WOES

The bye-week probably didn’t fix any of the Chicago Bears’ passing troubles as only the Jets and Dolphins have fewer yards per pass attempt. Even Andy Dalton and Baker Mayfield have higher QBRs than Mitch Trubisky. But Bears coach Matt Nagy is no dummy and isn’t going to put the team’s chances of winning Sunday versus the New Orleans Saints solely on the arm of Trubisky, especially coming off a Week 4 shoulder injury.

The Bears and Saints game has the lowest total on the board at 38 for a reason — even the Dolphins-Bills game is three points higher. Chicago is a bottom-10 team in pass attempts per game, 31st in yards per completion while Trubisky is 35th in net yards per passing play — sandwiched between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen.

The Saints’ passing defense has also been on a roll of late allowing under 175 passing yards to opposing QBs over the last three weeks. Although they will be without slot corner P.J. Williams, the Saints can still make life difficult for this weak passing group unless Nagy can get creative.

The markets aren’t readily available for Mitch’s props as he is working his way back from the injury but isn’t listed on the injury report as he has practiced in full since Wednesday. We will be waiting for those markets to open and look to take the Under on his passing yards on any total over 205 yards.


BEST VERSUS THE WORST

Here is a breakdown of the best and worst matchups for receivers for this week. Stats per Football Outsider.

BEST WR1

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati (70.5): Boyd will face a Jaguars' secondary surrendering 97.4 yards to opposing WR1s. Cincy’s best receiver has gone over 100 yards in two-of-six games. Andy Dalton and the Bengals’ volatile pass game scares a little here.


WORST WR1

Michael Thomas, New Orleans (80.5): Thomas has been held to Under 80.5 yards just once this year, but he has yet to face the Bears’ secondary who are allowing just 36.9 yards to opposing No. 1s. Teddy Bridgewater may have his toughest task to date. We like the Under.


BEST TE

Evan Engram, New York Giants (83.5): It’s no surprise the Cardinals take the bottom spot for defending opposing tight ends as the Red Birds are giving up nearly 100 yards a game. Engram could have a huge game on Sunday. We wouldn’t call you crazy for hitting the Over trifecta on Engram’s yards and reception totals as well as an anytime TD.


WORST TE

Vernon Davis/Jeremy Sprinkle, Washington (N/A): The books are waiting to see how Davis practices Friday after dealing with a concussion before this line opens. Don’t expect much as the 49ers are averaging 25.4 yards against tight ends. Any bet with the San Fran defense is a good bet, though, in our opinion. Wait till closer to kickoff if you want to fade a Washington TE.


BEST RB

Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis (24.5): The Houston Texans have been rolling offensively but have struggled to cover opposing running backs allowing 67 yards (double checked that number) to RBs. This is great value for the pass-catching Hines who has cleared that total in three straight weeks.


WORST RB

Chris Thompson, Washington (N/A): Even if one of the best third-down backs in the game can suit up Sunday, it will be for not as there is no stopping that San Francisco defense. They basically lead the league in every defensive category, and you can add lowest receiving yards to opposing RBs at 24.2 yards per game to the list.


QB PICKS

Cheering for interceptions is a great way to watch football. Here is a list of a few quarterbacks who may turn the ball over on Sunday.

Matthew Stafford (-125): Señor Stafford has only thrown two picks this year (two in Week 2) but divisional rivals the Vikings are a different beast. Minnesota has forced five INTs over six games. In his last four games against the Vikes, Stafford has struggled with just two TDs and one INT.

Deshaun Watson (-125): Mr. Watson is playing out his mind as of late but is coming off a two-pick performance in KC last week. The Texans QB has thrown nearly twice as many INTs when on the road and is facing a Colts defense that has picks in back-to-back games heading into Sunday.

Andy Dalton (-138): We all know that the Bengals are in that group of bad teams loitering at the bottom of the NFL standings. Andy Dalton has thrown five interceptions this year but with the Jaguars’ best corner gone and only forcing one INT in their last three, this is a pass for us, especially with the juice.

Matt Ryan (-107): This is the one we like the most. Ryan is averaging over one interception per game and with a potential shootout versus the Rams, the Falcons’ QB will have ample opportunities to turn it over through the air. The Rams also added Jalen Ramsey to their secondary making Ryan think twice about throwing towards Julio Jones and having to progress through his reads, if in fact Ramsey shadows Jones.

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 7
October 19, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Texans at Colts (-1 ½, 47) – 1:00 PM EST
Houston (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) has taken over the top spot in the AFC South following a pair of high-scoring victories over Atlanta and Kansas City. The Texans rallied past the Chiefs last Sunday, 31-24 to cash as 3 ½-point favorites, highlighted by a 20-0 second quarter to erase an early 14-point deficit. Deshaun Watson juked his way into the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter as the Texans improved to 3-0 ATS this season away from NRG Stadium.

The Colts (3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) are also coming off an underdog victory at Kansas City in its last game, albeit back in Week 5. Indianapolis is fresh off the bye after stunning the defending AFC West champions as 10 ½-point underdogs, 19-13, while outrushing the Chiefs in that Sunday night triumph, 180-36. The Colts are back at home for the first time since losing in surprising fashion to the upstart Raiders back in Week 4 as Indianapolis has drilled the OVER in both games at Lucas Oil Stadium this season.

This series was dominated by the road team last season as Houston outlasted Indianapolis at Lucas Oil in overtime, 37-34 to give the Texans its first win of 2018. That victory spurred a nine-game winning streak for Houston, which ended at home against Indianapolis in a 24-21 defeat in Week 14 as four-point favorites. The Colts eliminated the Texans in the Wild Card round at NRG Stadium in a 21-7 rout as Indianapolis led 21-0 headed to the fourth quarter.

Best Bet: Colts 23, Texans 20

Ravens at Seahawks (-3, 48) – 4:25 PM EST
The two teams that have not covered since Week 1 both reside in the Beltway as the Redskins and Ravens are currently on 0-5 ATS skids. Baltimore (4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS) sits atop the AFC North after holding off winless Cincinnati last week, 23-17, but the Ravens failed to cash as 10 ½-point favorites. After allowing the Bengals to return the opening kickoff for a touchdown, the Ravens outscored Cincinnati, 23-3 until giving up a late score to prevent a cover.

The Seahawks (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) have jumped out to an impressive start but still sit behind the undefeated 49ers for first place in the NFC West. Seattle has won four games by four points or less, including erasing a 20-6 deficit in last week’s 32-28 triumph at Cleveland to improve to 3-0 SU/ATS away from CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks have yet to cover at home this season in three tries, including in one-point wins over the Bengals and Rams. Seattle’s offense has exploded this season by posting 27 points or more in five straight games, as the OVER has hit four times in this stretch.

Baltimore is listed as an underdog for the second time this season after losing at Kansas City in Week 3. In spite of that loss, the Ravens are 3-1 SU/ATS as a ‘dog since Lamar Jackson took over as starting quarterback midway through 2018. The Seahawks own a perfect 3-0 mark against AFC North opponents tonight, while Seattle seeks its first cover as a home favorite since Week 14 last season against Minnesota.

Best Bet: Ravens 24, Seahawks 23

Saints at Bears (-4, 37) – 4:25 PM EST
There was expected concern when Drew Brees suffered a thumb injury in a Week 2 defeat to the Rams and he would be sidelined for six-to-eight weeks. However, the Saints (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) haven’t skipped a beat with their future Hall-of-Famer on the sidelines as veteran quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has led New Orleans to four consecutive victories (and covers). The Saints avoided a letdown last Sunday after back-to-back home wins as New Orleans edged Jacksonville, 13-6 as 2 ½-point underdogs to improve to 9-2 in the last 11 games away from the Superdome.

The Bears (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) return from the bye week following a surprising loss in London to the Raiders back in Week 5. Mitchell Trubisky is expected to play after missing the Oakland game with a shoulder injury, but there has not been a commitment yet from Bears’ head coach Matt Nagy. Chicago has scored only 19 points at home this season in two games at Soldier Field, but the Bears’ defense has yielded just 16 points against the Packers and Vikings. The Bears have allowed 17 points or less in eight of the past 11 home contests since the start of 2018, resulting in seven UNDERS.

The Saints will be without star running back Alvin Kamara with an ankle injury, as former Viking and Raider Latavius Murray is poised to receive a good number of carries on Sunday. New Orleans has won each of the past four meetings with Chicago dating back to 2011, including a 20-12 triumph at the Superdome as 7 ½-point favorites in 2017.

Best Bet: Bears 19, Saints 13

BEST TOTAL PLAY
UNDER 43 ½ - Jaguars at Bengals
Jacksonville’s defense has been up and down to say the least all season as the Jaguars have moved on from star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who was traded to the Rams last week. The Jaguars have allowed 13 points or less in three games, while yielding 24 points or more in three other contests. Jacksonville slowed down New Orleans’ offense in Week 6, but the Jaguars’ offense mustered a pair of field goals in a 13-6 defeat. Cincinnati has struggled all season as evidenced by its 0-6 mark, but the Bengals can’t run the ball, while scoring its last offensive touchdown in the first half back in Week 2 against San Francisco.

TRAP OF THE WEEK
Both Rams and Falcons have struggled of late (actually Atlanta has stumbled all season). The defending NFC champions are riding a three-game skid since a 3-0 start, but are three-point road favorites as they head cross-country to face a 1-5 Atlanta squad. The Falcons have allowed 87 points in the past two losses at Houston and Arizona, but Atlanta has won in its lone opportunity as a home underdog this season against Philadelphia in Week 2. The Rams’ offense totaled 157 yards in last Sunday’s 20-7 home defeat to the 49ers, but L.A. has covered in five of its past seven chances as a road favorite.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE
The Packers opened up as 6 ½-point favorites against the Raiders last Monday at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas. However, Green Bay has dropped to 4 ½-point favorites against an Oakland team coming off the bye week. The Packers edged the Lions on Monday night to improve to 5-1 on the season, while the Raiders are fresh off back-to-back impressive underdog wins over the Colts and Bears.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
Teams that have lost on Monday Night Football this season have not fared well the following week by posting a 1-5 SU/ATS record in 2019. Houston is the only team to win after a Monday night defeat, but the Texans failed to cash in a one-point victory over the Jaguars. The Lions sit in this position on Sunday after their 22-21 setback at Green Bay as Detroit hosts Minnesota. The Lions struggled with the Vikings last season by losing both meetings, while not reaching the end zone in either defeat.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 7
October 20, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Cardinals at Giants (-3.5/50), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Clouds are expected to threaten throughout this game and rain may be a part of the festivities throughout the day. That means conditions won’t be favorable for the return of Giants RB Saquon Barkley and Cardinals’ All-Pro corner Patrick Peterson, although the presumption is that it makes the defensive star’s life easier. The Giants won’t have Sterling Shepard back from concussion protocol, so Peterson will get to focus on a familiar face with Golden Tate emerging as rookie Daniel Jones’ preferred top target.

No. 1 pick Kyler Murray has led the Cardinals to back-to-back wins and will have RB David Johnson in the mix despite an ankle issue, so look for he and Chase Edmonds to get a heavy workload as the team’s only available backs. Johnson reported that his back is feeling much better after impacting his production earlier this season. He’s combined for over 100 yards in three straight games. Speedy Christian Kirk is still rehabilitating his ankle injury and will likely miss one more game since he’s not completely ready to return.

Texans at Colts (-1.5/46.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The winner of this one will be nicely positioned atop the AFC South, making this one of the day’s most important games. Houston is currently the only team in the division with a positive point differential, posting wins in four of five. The Texans have been beaten by a last-second field goal in New Orleans and came up just short at home against the Panthers, so they’ve been in every game they’ve played, just like the Colts. Indy has suffered an OT loss at the Chargers and fell to the Raiders at home. Like Houston, it too comes off an upset win over the Chiefs, but also had the benefit of watching last week’s Texans’ win from the comforts of home since they were on a bye.

The Texans are going to have to come issues on their offensive line, a season-long theme despite their success, because center Greg Mancz will miss a third straight game and rookie tackle Tytus Howard has been ruled out. The first-round pick has started every game, so we may see Houston run it more since he’s stood out as a pass blocker. Indianapolis guard Quenton Nelson landed on the injury report but is expected to play, so the Colts will again have their standout offensive line together. They’ve played every snap this season, opening holes for Marlon Mack and helping keep Jacoby Brissett clean. The Colts will be dealing with a Texans’ secondary that should have corner Johnathan Jospeh and safety Tashaun Gipson back from hip injuries, but won't have corner Bradley Roby. Indianapolis will have top LB Darius Leonard back following a three-game absence.

Jaguars (-4.5/44) at Bengals, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Gardner Minshew Experience has hit a rough patch, but he’s proven he’s nothing if not resilient considering his preseason was so awful and he bounced back nicely from that. We’ll see how he handles getting back on track after finishing 14-for-29 for 163 yards and a pick in a 13-6 loss to the Saints, but it may help the cause that starting corners Turtle Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick are sidelined. DE Carl Lawson is out and Carlos Dunlap has been downgraded to doubtful, so Minshew has a chance to put up some numbers against a depleted unit. WR Dede Westbrook has been a disappointment but should be able to play through a shoulder injury, which is good news since the Jags will already be missing Marqise Lee (foot) and tight ends James O’Shaughnessy (ACL) and Geoff Swaim (concussion).

The Bengals have had issues getting anybody blocked up front, which could lead to another long day for Andy Dalton as he remains top target without A.J. Green. Tackles Andre Smith and Cordy Glenn have both been ruled out, as has guard John Miller. DT Ryan Glasgow will be back out there, but remaining winless hasn’t exactly expedited the recovery period for a lot of key guys. Cincinnati is 0-2 against the spread at home but covered in last week’s loss at Baltimore thanks to a late score. The Jags have trailed for most of their three games on the road, winning only at Denver on a last-second field goal.

Rams (-3/54) at Falcons, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: If L.A. falls under .500, Jared Goff is going to come under fire, so it’s fortunate that Blake Bortles is his backup since it’s not like the fan base will exactly be clamoring for a change. Make no mistake, although the offensive line has had its issues, the Rams being unable to score points falls on the shoulders of their quarterback and his errant passes. Although Malcolm Brown is out with an ankle injury, the offense gets Todd Gurley back from his quad issue and should have better balance to try and get back on track against a Falcons defense that has given up at least 20 points in every game this season, surrendering 43.5 points over the past two. Corner Desmond Trufant is out and safeties Jonathan Cyprien and Keanu Neal have been lost, so if Goff can’t get loose here, the Rams will be in a bind.

Falcons head coach Dan Quinn has gotten a vote of confidence from owner Arthur Blank and his players over the past few weeks, but sustaining another loss in front of what would be a vocally displeased home crowd could be the final straw for him. Jalen Ramsey will look to pay immediate dividends in clocking in for Julio Jones duty with Aqib Talib and John Johnson both out injured. Los Angeles has never been under .500 under Sean McVay, last sporting a losing record after John Fassel closed out the 2016 season following Jeff Fisher’s firing. This is a huge game for the entire organization.

49ers (-10/40) at Redskins, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Washington isn’t in condition to knock off the NFC’s lone unbeaten, but hey, they’re in town, so why not try? It’s going to take another big game from WR Terry McLaurin, a talented rookie who has dominated opposing defensive backs but will have to deal with a secondary that has allowed a single QB to pass for over 200 yards and just one 100-yard receiver. Adrian Peterson had 100-yard rushing day against Miami but is no longer the type to loosen up a defense, so it could be a long day for Case Keenum as he looks to get interim head coach Bill Callahan a second straight win that would be the Redskins’ first set of back-to-back wins in nearly a calendar year.

The 49ers haven’t started 6-0 since 1990 and will have to overcome rainy conditions and the continued absence of tackles Mike McGlinchey and Joe Staley in addition to fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Fortuntately, George Kittle is cleared to work despite a groin strain and set to go, which should mean the offense should remain effective despite also having to replace rookie playmaker Deebo Samuel (groin). The ‘Skins have major issues in the back end of their defense with Josh Norman a game-time decision (groin) and LB Josh Harvey-Clemons and safety Deshazor Everett out. If the weather in Landover holds up enough where Jimmy Garoppolo gets time to throw downfield, Marquise Goodwin could have a big game.

Chargers at Titans (-2.5/42), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: Marcus Mariota will watch from the sidelines as Ryan Tannehill tries to complete the process of taking his job in Nashville. The former Dolphins starter entered last week’s disappointing 16-0 loss in Denver and finished 13-for-16 with an interception, which are still better numbers than the former No. 2 overall pick put up. A Derrick Henry TD run in the third quarter of a home loss to the Bills on Oct. 6 are the team’s only points over the past 10 quarters and TE Delanie Walker potentially missing this game won’t help matters. Tennessee’s defense has been fantastic most of the season in keeping the Titans in games and winning a pair outright, but attrition is a factor with LB Sharif Finch out and counter part Jayon Brown doubtful. Pass rusher Cameron Wake is questionable too, but the secondary should have standout safety Kenny Vaccaro to help deal with the Chargers’ weapons.

Philip Rivers found Hunter Henry for a pair of scores once the Chargers already trailed 24-0, but the offense was to blame for putting the team in a huge hole against Pittsburgh and hasn’t looked right since Melvin Gordon returned to action. That’s not to say the running back is to blame, but Ken Whisenhunt has had trouble incorporating him back in the fold. L.A.’s defense will have linebackers Denzel Perryman and Thomas Davis in place but have ruled out nose tackle Brandon Mebane (knee) and DT Justin Jones (shoulder) while listing Melvin Ingram as doubtful. That will likely be good news for Henry, Tannehill and a Titans offense looking to get on track.

Ravens at Seahawks (-3/48.5), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Russell Wilson is now a 7-to-4 favorite to win the NFL MVP per Westgate following Patrick Mahomes’ Thursday night injury, ranking ahead of Houston’s Watson. The Seahawks’ star leads the league in passer rating, touchdowns and game-winning drives and hasn’t been picked off. The Ravens have struggled against the top passing attacks they’ve seen thus far, giving up 37.5 points in losses to the Chiefs and Browns, so they’ll need their best effort in holding up here. Safety Tony Jefferson tore his ACL to open the month and corner Jimmy Smith has been out for weeks, so the availability of corner Maurice Canady is particularly important since he’s dealing with a hamstring issue. Anthony Averett is dealing with an ankle issue.

Rain is likely to be a part of the action in Seattle at some point, which could actually favor the slippery Lamar Jackson since it will be more difficult for the Seahawks’ pass rush to get to him. Unfortunately, top playmaker Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is unlikely to play after not practicing all week, so Willie Snead and Miles Boykin will get the majority of snaps in what will likely be a run-heavy attack designed in part to keep the ball out of Wilson’s hands. Seattle has its own issues on the offensive line and probably won’t have its desired combination up front for the next few weeks. Tackle Duane Brown hasn’t practiced all week, while guard D.J. Fluker is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Seahawks have to replace tight end Will Dissly too, likely turning to Luke Willson. DE Ziggy Ansah, DT Quintin Jefferson and safety Bradley McDougald are all questionable too.

Saints at Bears (-4/37), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: With Alvin Kamara sitting due to an ankle sprain and Drew Brees still not back from his thumb injury, New Orleans will have to manufacture offense against one of the league’s top defenses in a tough atmosphere. Following a warm day in Jacksonville and a pair of games in the Superdome, the Saints hit the road to deal with temperatures in the 50s in addition to Khalil Mack. Considering Teddy Bridgewater comes off a disappointing outing in Jacksonville, I’d expect to see Taysom Hill play more than he has and the ball to be in the air less than it normally is under Sean Payton. While that may ultimately have you running to the counter to ride the Bears at home, Mitchell Trubisky’s return from a shoulder injury carries its own risk. The second-year QB hasn’t exactly lit it up when healthy and a defense that had looked dominant throughout the first month struggled overseas in losing to the Raiders. Although DE Akiem Hicks has now been ruled out for most of the regular season, DT Bilal Nichols is expected back to help fill out the defensive front.

The Bears' offensive line suffered a big blow with guard Kyle Long landing on IR after attempting to play through a hip issue. Matt Nagy should have a few wrinkles in coming off a bye but can’t get cute given all the moving parts on the Bears’ offense. New Orleans will attempt to survive via the legs of Hill and Latavius Murray in addition to Michael Thomas’ ability to live up to his can’t-guard-Mike Twitter handle.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Top six picks for Week 7 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Saints, +3.5 (860)- W

5) Vikings,, -1 (873)- W

4) Colts, -1 (965)- W

3) 49ers, -9.5 (989)- L

2) Rams, -3 (1,073)- W

1) Giants, -3 (1,076)- L

2019 record: 23-18-1


**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Colts 30, Texans 23:
— Texans started two drives in Indy territory, only kicked FG on both.
— On their last four drives, Watson threw two INT’s, Colts also got a safety.
— Average total in Texans’ last three games: 64.3.

— Colts’ first two drives of 2nd half: 20 plays, 149 yards, two TD’s.
— Brissett threw for 326 yards; Indy converted 8-16 third down plays.
— Colts are 11-3-1 ATS in last 15 post-bye games.

Bills 31 Dolphins 21:
— Miami led 14-9 at halftime; they’re more competitive with Fitzpatrick at QB.
— Fitzpatrick threw an INT in red zone on first drive of 3rd quarter; not good.
— Miami outgained Bills 381-305, converted 7-13 on 3rd down, was -2 in turnovers.

— Buffalo’s first three drives: 26 plays, 148 yards, three FG’s.
— Bills in second half: 22 plays, 147 yards, two TD’s.
— Buffalo ran an onside kick back for the last TD of the game with 1:38 left.

Packers 42, Raiders 24:
— Oakland was in red zone six times, came up empty on three of them.
— Carr averaged 10.6 yards/pass attempt, but lost a fumble near the goal line.
— Raiders are 4-14-1 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog

— Rodgers was 25-31/429 passing, averaging 13.2 yards/attempt.
— Packers’ first six drives: 43 plays, 424 yards, five touchdowns.
— Packers are 13-9-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite, 13-8-1 in last 22 games vs AFC teams.

Jaguars 27, Bengals 17:
— Jaguars won despite scoring one TD on six drives to the red zone.
— Jacksonville is +6 in turnovers in its three wins, -7 in its four losses.
— Minshew completed less than half his passes for 2nd week in row.

— Bengals’ first five drives: 18 plays, 38 yards, five punts.
— Cincy is -8 in turnovers TY; they turned ball over four times, just in 2nd half.
— AFC North teams are 7-10 ATS outside the division, 0-8 at home.

Cardinals 27, Giants 21:
— Edmonds ran ball for 126 yards, had three TD runs of 20+ yards.
— Cardinals are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog, 3-0 TY.
— Arizona won its last three games, after an 0-3-1 start.

— Big Blue is 1-4-1 ATS in last six games as a home favorite.
— Giants’ second TD scored on a blocked punt.
— Home side lost five of last six series games; Arizona won its last three visits here.

Vikings 42, Lions 30:
— Cook ran ball for 142 yards, two touchdowns.
— Minnesota gained 490-447-513 TY the last three games.
— Vikings won four of their last five trips to the Motor City.

— Vikings’ first four drives: 32 plays, 255 yards, 21 points.
— Detroit has been outscored 93-59 in second half this season.
— Lions are 7-15-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home underdog.

Rams 37, Falcons 10:
— LA was 8-16 on 3rd down, after being 7-31 in previous three games.
— Rams had successful fake punt on drive where FG made score 13-3.
— NFC West teams are 10-1 ATS in non-divisional road games.

— Ryan was sacked five times; Falcons have five sacks the whole season.
— Atlanta lost its last five games; have to think a coaching change is close.
— Ryan hurt his foot late in game; foot was in a boot after the game.

49ers 9, Redskins 0:
— Game was played in a rainy quagmire, was scoreless at halftime.
— In their last three games, 49ers allowed one TD on 29 drives, with six takeaways.
— Kyle Shanahan gave his dad a game ball;; Redskins fired Mike Shanahan in 2013.

— Game was scoreless until 5:38 mark of 3rd quarter; 49ers kicked three FG’s, all less than 30 yards.
— Washington ran 41 plays, 49ers 62; Keenum threw only 12 passes (9-12/77)
— In Callahan’s two games as HC, Redskins ran ball 59 times, threw it 37.

Titans 23, Chargers 20:
— Chargers had ball on Titans’ one-yard line in last 0:30, couldn’t run ball in.
— All five of LA’s losses this season are by seven or fewer points.
— Chargers ran ball for only 51.6 yards/game the last five weeks.

— Tennessee averaged 9.6 yards/pass attempt, their best mark of season.
— Tannehill is the Titans’ 13th starting QB since 2005.
— Both teams converted 6-11 third down plays in this game.

Ravens 30, Seahawks 16:
— Ravens scored two defensive TD’s, ran ball for 199 yards.

— Baltimore is running ball for 204+ yards/game this year.
— Jackson is now 11-3 SU as an NFL starter.

— Seahawks are 4-11-1 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite
— In their two losses, Seattle allowed three defensive TD’s and a punt return TD.
— Both QB’s completed less than half their passes.

Saints 36, Bears 25:
— In his career, Bridgewater is 16-2 ATS as an underdog.
— New Orleans won field position by 14 yards, outgained Bears, 424-252
— Saints are 17-8-1 ATS in last 26 games as a road dog, 3-1 TY.

— Bears threw 54 passes, ran ball seven times; no bueno.
— Chicago is 4-13-1 ATS in last 18 post-bye games, 0-6 in last six.
— Bears recovered consecutive onside kicks in 4th quarter; that doesn’t happen much.

Cowboys 37, Eagles 10:
— Eagles lost fumbles on first two drives; Dallas had TD drives of 45-14 yards.
— Only team Philly held under 24 points TY was Jets when they started #3 QB.
— Eagles allowed 20+ first half points in five of seven games.

— Dallas ran ball for 189 yards, converted 8-14 third down plays.
— Cowboys are 12-8-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite.
— Maher is first kicker ever to make three FG’s of 60+ yards.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 7
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 7 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-3
Against the Spread 7-5

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 4-8
Against the Spread 4-8

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-5-1

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 63-39-1
Against the Spread 43-58-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 45-57-1
Against the Spread 37-64-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 49-53-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Saints (+4.5, ML +190) at Bears, 36-25
Cardinals (+3.5, ML +165) at Giants, 27-21
Ravens (+3, ML +135) at Seahawks, 30-16

The largest favorite to cover
Packers (-6) vs. Raiders, 42-24
Jaguars (-4.5) at Bengals, 27-17
Chiefs (-3) at Broncos, 30-6
Cowboys (-3) vs. Eagles, 37-10
Rams (-3) at Falcons, 37-10

A Little East Coast Swing

-- The Arizona Cardinals (+3.5, ML +165) kick the road and took care of the New York Giants by a 27-21 score, as rookie QB Kyler Murray outdueled fellow first-year QB Daniel Jones in the raindrops left over from the remnants of Tropical Storm Nestor. The Cardinals have now won and covered three in a row, and they're 3-3-1 SU and 5-2 ATS overall. The 'under' cashed for the second time in three trips to the Eastern Time Zone for the Cards, too. They make on final trip in Week 10 to the Eastern Time Zone, and that's after the clocks change, too, when they meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The San Francisco 49ers (-10) also headed east and were stuck in the muck and mire at FedEx Field in Landover, Md. against the Washington Redskins. In fact, this game was played on a natural grass surface, as opposed to the field turf at MetLife Stadium, so it was even more sloppy and muddy. The game featured no touchdowns on either side, and just three field goals by the 49ers, serving as yet another reminder to always double-check the weather before finalizing those wagers each week. The 49ers have been to the Eastern Time Zone three times in the first seven weeks, hitting the 'under' twice. They return one more time to the Eastern Time Zone in Week 13 when they battle the Baltimore Ravens.

Another west coast team visiting the Eastern Time Zone was the Los Angeles Rams against the Atlanta Falcons. Under the dome, the Rams and Falcons needn't worry about weather-related issues, but this game hit the 'under'. It was actually no fault of the Rams, as they racked up 37 points, but the Falcons lost QB Matt Ryan (ankle) to an injury in the second half, and they managed just 10 points to go well 'under' (54.5) the total. Like the other two NFC West teams above, the Rams have hit the 'under' twice in three trips East, with one more trip to meet the Pittsburgh Steelers on Week 10 after a bye.

Huge Shock

-- If you were holding a Los Angeles Chargers (+2) ticket you're probably still shaking your head. The Bolts worked it all the way down to the 1-yard line of the Tennessee Titans inside the final minute. A long play to RB Austin Ekeler was ruled down at the 1 after instant replay. Then, RB Melvin Gordon ran it in, only to be ruled down short of the goal by replay. He got another crack at it and fumbled short of the line, as the Titans held on for the 23-20 victory. At least the total wasn't also in play, too.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Rams-Falcons (54.5) game, which went well under. The other four games on the board with totals of 48 or higher also went under, including the Cardinals-Giants (50) battle, the Kansas City Chiefs-Denver Broncos (49.5) game with a total of just 36 points, and the Baltimore Ravens-Seattle Seahawks (48.5) contest which had a total of 46 points.

The gift of the day was in the Jacksonville Jaguars-Cincinnati Bengals (44), as the Bengals were overmatched all day, but they kept fighting to the end for 'over' bettors. QB Andy Dalton scored a late rushing touchdown with :23 remaining, cutting the lead to 27-17, putting the total over by just a half-point at some shops, and an unfortunate push at others. In fact, if Scott Van Pelt includes NFL in bad beats this week on his ESPN segment, this game HAS to be on there. In fact, there were just 27 total points on the board until Jacksonville had a pick-six with 4:18 to go.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the New Orleans Saints-Chicago Bears (37) game. This game was supposed to be a snoozefest, but the Saints nearly took care of the over themselves. For the most part this game was out of hand, although the Bears actually successfully covered an onside kick late, and nearly had a second one, making things interesting at the end. When the dust clear, there was a total of 61 points on the board, the third-highest total of points in any game on the schedule.

-- The 'under' went 2-0 in the first two primetime games of Week 7, with the Monday Night Football contest between the New England Patriots-New York Jets (43.5) still pending. The 'over' is just 5-16 (23.8%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, and 3-1 in the past four MNF outings.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (kneecap) dislocated his kneecap and he is expected to miss at least a couple of weeks after exiting Thursday's game in Denver on a quarterback sneak. Enter QB Matt Moore for head coach Andy Reid, who has had success with backup quarterbacks before.

-- As mentioned, Matt Ryan (ankle) left Sunday's game and he is set to have an MRI on Monday to determine the severity.

-- Lions RB Kerryon Johnson (knee) exited early and he will have further testing to determine his availability for Week 8.

-- Vikings WR Adam Thielen (hamstring) left Sunday's game in Detroit due to a hamstring issue, and he will have a precautionary MRI. He feels optimistic he'll be ready for Thursday's game against the Redskins.

Looking Ahead

-- Vikings QB Kirk Cousins will face his former team, the Redskins, on Thursday night in a home battle at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Redskins are 2-5 ATS in their past seven appearances on a Thursday, while the Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances on Thursday.

-- The Seahawks travel east to meet the Falcons, and they might be facing QB Matt Schaub if Ryan isn't ready to go. Unlike those teams mentioned above, Seattle has hit the 'over' twice in their two trips into the Eastern Time Zone already this season. Seattle has alternated non-covers and covers in their first seven games, going 3-4 ATS so far.

-- The winless Bengals and Rams will square off at Wembley Stadium in London in the third International Series game of the season. The favorite/undedog is 1-1 SU/ATS so far through the first two games in London, but the 'over' has cashed in each of the two England games. The last time the Bengals were in England they tied the Redskins 27-27 at Wembley Stadium on Oct. 30, 2016. The Rams lost at Twickenham Stadium in that same season a week earlier by a 17-10 count to the Giants. They're 1-2 SU/ATS in their three previous U.K. battles.

-- The Bills hit their first 'over' of the season in a win over the Dolphins in Week 7. The Bills and 49ers have the most 'under' results at 5-1. Buffalo hosts Philadelphia in Orchard Park on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. Meanwhile, the Niners host the Panthers coming off a bye.

[Udog]

NFL Week 8 opening odds and early moves: With Chiefs minus Mahomes, Packers are road faves
Patrick Everson

Patrick Mahomes won't be slinging for Kansas City against Green Bay in Week 8 and likely a couple weeks beyond that. The Chiefs opened as 3-point home underdogs for the Sunday night clash.

Week 8 of the NFL season is on deck, featuring an NFC-AFC clash that’s missing one of the league’s biggest stars. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action for that contest and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (+3)

Under the Sunday night lights, Kansas City won’t have prime-time quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a dislocated knee in the second quarter at Denver in Week 7. The Chiefs (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) still went on to win easily 30-6 as 3-point favorites behind backup Matt Moore, but will most certainly face a stiffer challenge minus Mahomes this week.

Green Bay stubbed its toe at home in the Week 4 Thursday nighter, but has otherwise been spotless this season. The Packers (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) rolled over Oakland 42-24 as 5.5-point favorites in Week 7.

The opening number was a healthy distance away from last week’s look-ahead line for this contest.

“The look-ahead number was Chiefs -4 before the Mahomes injury,” Murray told Covers on Sunday night. “We reopened with Green Bay a 3-point fave. Keep an eye on the other players Kansas City has been missing the last few weeks. They have a number of other key veterans that should be back soon.”

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

New Orleans was without Drew Brees the past five weeks, yet went 5-0 SU and ATS in that stretch to stand atop the NFC South. The Saints (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) went off as 4-point underdogs at Chicago in Week 7 and emerged with a 36-25 victory.

Arizona is coming along much better than expected under rookie coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie QB Kyler Murray. The Cardinals (3-3-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) nabbed a 27-21 road win over the New York Giants catching 3.5 points to win and cash for the third straight week.

There’s a chance Brees returns this week from a thumb injury, but Murray thinks that might be more talk than anything else.

“We opened this game Saints -7.5 and are up to -8.5,” Murray said. “I don’t see the Saints pressing Brees into action here. They have been winning without him and have a bye next week.”

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-6)

San Francisco is one of just two remaining undefeated outfits, joining New England in that respect. The 49ers (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) battled through the rain at Washington in Week 7, slogging out a 9-0 victory as 10-point faves.

Carolina ripped off four consecutive SU and ATS wins without Cam Newton, who’s been out with a foot injury. The Panthers (4-2 SU and ATS), coming off their bye week, rode backup Kyle Allen to a 37-26 Week 6 win laying 2 points at Tampa Bay.

“The 49ers are 6-0 SU, but they’re going to need more from their offense to keep winning deep into the season,” Murray said. “The Panthers are coming into this game off their bye week. It could be a tricky spot for San Francisco.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

One team is putting itself in playoff position, the other is sub-.500, but it’s a bit of a surprise as to who’s who.

Buffalo is out to a 5-1 SU start (4-2 ATS), with the only loss a more-than-respectable setback to New England. The Bills struggled through three quarters against winless Miami, but scored three fourth-quarter touchdowns to win 31-21 giving a hefty 17 points at home.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia dropped two in a row and four of its last six to fall to 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. The Eagles went to Dallas as 3-point underdogs and got run 37-10 in the Week 7 Sunday nighter.

“It’s off the board now, but we opened Bills -1.5,” Murray said, noting this game was taken down ahead of Philly’s Sunday night loss, but it will go back up Monday morning. “The Eagles are on the third of three straight tough road games, after playing at Minnesota and at Dallas the last two weeks. The Eagles need to get healthy quickly, or they will fall out of the NFC playoff picture.”

[Udog]

MNF - Patriots at Jets
Tony Mejia

New England (-9, 43.5) at N.Y. Jets, 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

The transitive property could get itself quite the workout on Monday if the masses decide to talk themselves into throwing caution to the wind and backing the Jets against Tom Brady and the Patriots.

New York destroyed Dallas last week in Sam Darnold’s return from a bout with mono. The Cowboys got their tackles back, returned home and pulverized the Eagles 37-10. Just who does this Brady guy have alongside him anyway?

Backing the Jets over the Pats is the present-day NFL equivalent of riding David over Goliath or the Generals over the Globetrotters. It’s riding Charlie Brown to kick that football. However, friendly bookmakers typically manage to provided incentive that has actually made it more profitable to take the points with New York over New England this decade. That includes an outright upset the only time the teams met in the playoffs. For proof, see the recent series history below for everyone of their outcomes since 2010.

The Jets haven’t won at Foxboro since their Divisional Playoff win back in ’11, the crowning moment of both Mark Sanchez’s career and the franchise’s last two decades. Despite losses in 15 of 17 against their New England-based tormentors, the Jets have posted a pair of overtime wins at home and were tied at 13 in the third-quarter of last season’s visit before the Jets pulled away. That was without Darnold, who has only been able to participate in one of three games against the Patriots since being drafted.

New York failed to cover in the 27-13 loss, snapping a run of five straight home covers against the Pats. The Jets then got crushed 38-3 in Week 17 as Darnold ran into a finely tuned buzzsaw that was preparing for a Super Bowl run. When the teams squared off on Sept. 22, Darnold was home dealing with the effects of his virus and Luke Falk took the reins. The Patriots stifled the Jets offense and raced out to a 30-0 lead before coughing up the cover on a fumble recovery in the end zone after a muffed punt and Jamal Adams’ 61-yard interception return of an errant Jarrett Stidham pass.

The Patriots could’ve named their score in that game, making it a tough beat for those who had laid the 20 points and appeared to be cruising with Falk having little chance of moving the Jets’ offense. The dynamic absolutely changes with Darnold, who is better equipped to improve on his final showing of his rookie season despite having played in just two regular-season games since then.

Darnold put together a few tremendous throws against the Cowboys and should benefit from the presence of LeVeon Bell, who looks far more comfortable in the offense than the only other time he took the field alongside New York’s franchise QB back in Week 1. Although Quincy Enunwa has been lost for the season with a neck injury, Robby Anderson remains an option that can help Darnold stretch the field and reliable veterans Demaryius Thomas and Jamison Crowder have helped upgrade the unit. Bell, Bilal Powell and Ty Montgomery are all available, so checkdowns and screens have a chance to pop against the stingy Patriots, who lead the NFL with a scoring average allowed of just eight points per game.

Thomas’ hamstring could be an issue for him, but he wants nothing more than to be out there against New England, which cut him once it acquired the since-released Antonio Brown. Thomas called his release “disrespectful” and Bill Belichick admitted backing out of a commitment to him due to circumstances changing, so that’s a situation worth watching. Check out the injury report below for more variables worth keeping an eye on.

As far as the number goes, Darnold isn’t worth 10-plus points to a spread, but a six-point shift and the Jets actually having a chance to move the ball has led the number to shift a full five points, which is indeed an overestimation of the second-year quarterback’s value. The Patriots have covered in four of their six wins but are just 1-2 ATS against divisional foes, having beaten the Dolphins 43-0 but scuffling in a 16-10 win in Buffalo. The Bills have been the only team to be within one possession of New England in a fourth-quarter all season.

Despite Brady lacking a truly elite go-to receiver like a Brown or Rob Gronkowski, New England has led at halftime in every one of their games. Only Washington has held a lead after a quarter. A sack-fumble of Brady that Giants’ LB Markus Golden returned for six and a fluke 64-yard strike from rookie Daniel Jones to Golden Tate represent the only touchdowns the Patriots’ defense has allowed in the second quarter of games this season.

The Pats have outscored opponents 53-7 to open games, surrendering only a 65-yard run on a busted coverage to ‘Skins backup RB Steven Sims Jr. Belichick’s preparation and the execution of his defense has been elite. We’ll see if Darnold is up to the task in just his second game back. The Westgate lists the first-quarter line as NE -3 with a total of 7.5. The first-half line favors New England by six points with a total set at 21.5. That ‘under’ looks appealing. For a free MNF prop winner, click here.

The Patriots look to continue a trend that has seen the favorite dominate Monday night games (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS). For more details, check out VI’s MNF Schedule.br>
Clear conditions are expected in East Rutherford, with light winds accompanying temperatures in the mid-50s.

TOTAL TALK

Oddsmakers sent out a total of 43 ½ between the Patriots and Jets and the number has held steady as of Monday morning. When the pair met in Week 3 from Foxboro, the total closed in the same neighborhood and the defensive scores for the Jets helped the ‘over’ cash albeit very luckily.

Totals expert Chris David offered up his total thoughts and lean on the MNF matchup.

“Rematch games are never an easy handicap, especially this early in the season but a different outcome should be expected with Darnold at quarterback for the Jets. New England’s defense has been lights out but they haven’t faced a legit signal caller since Week 1 when the stifled Big Ben and the Steelers by a 33-3 count," David said. "Darnold faced New England last season in Week 17 and he looked like a rookie as the Jets were blitzed 38-3 on the road. The second-year QB wasn’t great on third-down conversions last week (2-of-10) in the 24-22 win over Dallas but he’s not afraid to fire and can put his team in scoring positions.”

Prior to the Week 3 ‘over’ ticket, the ‘under’ was on a 6-0 run in this series going back to the 2016 regular season. Looking at those number further, New York has been held to 13, 17 and 17 points at MetLife Stadium. While the Dallas outcome went ‘over’ last Sunday, the Jets saw the ‘under’ cash in their first four games.

New England has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 on the season and that record could easily be 6-0 if it wasn’t for the two defensive scores in the Jets game, plus last Thursday’s result versus the other New York (Giants) team was helped with three combined defensive and special teams scores.

In David’s weekly total segment on the VI Bet and Collect podcast, he often hits on seasonal angles and total systems that have produced profits and this game hits on one popular angle.

“The ‘Thursday Night Total’ system is back and alive in 2019 and it’s simple to follow. The angle calls for finding out who played at home on Thursday in the previous week and playing the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue," David added. "The play sits at 4-1 (80%) on the season and this week's matchup calls for an 'over' play on the New England-N.Y. Jets game this Monday, since the Patriots hosted the N.Y. Giants last Thursday from Foxboro. Even though this has been an ‘under’ series, the Patriots have averaged 29.7 PPG in their last seven versus the Jets. I’m buying more points here and going to ride the ‘over’ in this spot (43 ½) and press the system.”

LINE MOVEMENT

New England Patriots
Projected season win total: 11 (Over -150, Under +130)
Odds to win AFC East (pre-Week 1/current): 1/5 to 1/40
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 11/4 to 5/9
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 6/1 to 7/4

New York Jets
Projected season win total: 7.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC East (pre-Week 1/current): 6/1 to 100/1
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 30/1 to 250/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 60/1 to 500/1

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

"The ticket count and money favor the Patriots" said Berg, whose excellent observations can be found on Twitter at @PercentBerg. "I'ts going to be an interesting game since it's the Jets' best shot at getting back into the race with the mighty Pats cruising. However, there's no sharp support for the upset here -- at least not yet (Sunday night)."

INJURY CONCERNS

The Jets are expected to get top linebacker C.J. Mosley back from a groin injury, which is a huge boost considering the lift he’s supplied when out there. The team’s top defensive offseason acquisition would strengthen a group that has quality young talent in Adams at safety and Quinnen Williams and Henry Anderson up front. Anderson is trying to overcome a shoulder issue that may keep him out, so keep an ear out for official word. LBs Albert McClellan (concussion) and Neville Hewitt (stinger) aren’t expected to suit up. DT Steven McClendon and corners Daryl Roberts and Nate Hairston are questionable.

New York is certain to make changes up front with left guard Kelechi Osemele out and filing a grievance over his situation. Left tackle Kelvin Beachum is ‘doubtful’ with an ankle injury, so rookie Chume Edoga is expected to start. Brandon Shell is expected to switch back to right tackle, but right guard Brian Winters popped up on the week’s report with a knee issue. Center Matt Kalilis questionable due to a shoulder issue that kept him from practicing over the weekend, while left guard Alex Lewis is hoping to play through neck pain. There’s a lot going on for the Jets’ offensive line, so it remains to be seen how that impacts Adam Gase’s play-calling.

The Patriots won't have their top tight ends since Matt LaCosse (knee) and Ryan Izzo (concussion) have been ruled out, creating opportunities for Ben Watson in his return and newcomer Eric Tomlinson, a former Jet. Rumors had the Pats sniffing around about the availability of Tampa Bay's O.J. Howard, who hasn't been utilized as envisioned in what was expected to be a breakthrough year for him. New England has already ruled out WR Josh Gordon (leg) and lists Phillip Dorsett as questionable due to a hamstring injury, so Brady is going to have a shortage of familiar targets. Julian Edelman (chest) is a go. Dorsett should participate.

Safety Patrick Chung is questionable and DE Michael Bennett (suspension) will sit for the Patriots.

RECENT MEETINGS

(Patriots 16-4 SU, 8-12 ATS last 20, OVER 12-8)

9/22/19 Patriots 30-14 vs. Jets (NYJ +20.5, 43)
12/30/18 Patriots 38-3 vs. Jets (NE -14.5, 46.5)
11/25/18 Patriots 27-13 at Jets (NE -13, 46.5)
12/31/17 Patriots 26-6 vs. Jets (NE -17, 43.5)
10/15/17 Patriots 24-17 at Jets (NYJ +9, 48.5)
12/24/16 Patriots 41-3 vs. Jets (NE -17, 45)
11/27/16 Patriots 22-17 at Jets (NYJ +8.5, 48)
12/27/15 Jets 26-20 OT vs. Patriots (NYJ +3, 45)
10/25/15 Patriots 30-23 vs. Jets (NYJ +7.5, 47.5)
12/21/14 Patriots 17-16 at Jets (NYJ +10, 47)
10/16/14 Patriots 27-25 vs. Jets (NYJ +9.5, 44.5)
10/20/13 Jets 30-27 OT vs. Patriots (NYJ +3, 43)
9/12/13 Patriots 13-10 vs. Jets (NYJ +11.5, 43)
11/22/12 Patriots 49-19 at Jets (NE -7, 48.5)
10/21/12 Patriots 29-26 OT vs. Jets (NYJ +10.5, 47)
11/13/11 Patriots 37-16 at Jets (NE +2.5, 47)
10/9/11 Patriots 30-21 vs. Jets (NE -7.5, 50)
1/16/11 Jets 28-21 at Patriots (NYJ +9.5, 45)
12/6/10 Patriots 45-3 vs. Jets (NE -4, 44.5)
9/19/10 Jets 28-14 vs. Patriots (NYJ +3, 39.5)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 8 currently has the Patriots as an 11.5-point home favorite over a Browns team that has lost three of four but will be coming in off a bye. The Jets will hit the road to face the Jaguars in North Florida and have been installed as a 4.5-point underdog.