NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Wed., Oct. 16 - Sat., Oct. 19)

[Udog]

Total Moves - Week 8
October 17, 2019
By Matt Blunt

College Football Week 8 Total Moves

Thanks to a scoreless 1st half by Florida State and a missed FG at the end of that half by Clemson, last week's play on 'over' 59.5 in the FSU/Clemson game came up a half-point short. Thankfully Navy and Tulsa ha no problems lighting up the scoreboard to surpass all their numbers in the 45-17 Navy win to grab a split with the selections for the second straight week.

Stewing on shoulda, woulda, coulda's with losing selections is never a healthy thing for your mental process nor your bankroll, so it's on to this week's total selections as we start to see the quality of games ramp up even more across the country.

YTD: 8-6 ATS

Week 8 Total move to disagree with:

Georgia Tech/Miami from 47.5 to 45

After a national audience saw the Miami Hurricanes offense struggle to get past Virginia last week, there has been plenty of 'under' support for their game this week against a bad Georgia Tech team. The Yellow Jackets are in a big time transition year in more ways then one, as the bulk of their roster was recruited to play the triple-option style, but once HC Paul Johnson retired at the end of last year, the program was left trying to work with square pegs in round holes for 2019 as they move away from that style of football. The Yellow Jackets are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS this year as the pain for them has been very real on the football field, and for bettors supporting them.

However, this team has started to find a bit of something on offense lately, scoring 22 or more points in each of their last two games, and three of their past four, after opening the year needing three grams to crack the 14-point barrier. Miami's defense is quite good and overall should not have much issue holding the Jackets down, but it's also going to be tough for them to be overly sharp mentally coming off a national prime time game against a ranked foe. The Hurricanes are expected to win this game rather easily as 18-point chalk, but easy wins don't necessarily mean said team will hold their foes off the score sheet as well.

If Georgia Tech continues to put up 20+ like they have recently, Miami will need 40+ to cover this spread, and that gives us plenty of margin for error on going 'over' this now reduced total. The Hurricanes themselves have put up at least 17 points in every game so far, and after the last time they managed just 17 points, the following week was a 42-35 loss to Virginia Tech where the Hurricanes were laying double-digits and had a total in the mid-40's. Sound familiar?

And while there really is no comparison to the games these two played in past years because there is no more heavy reliance on the triple-option for Georgia Tech, you'd have to go back to the 2014 game to find one where fewer than 46 points were scored – they had 45 that year – and all the way to 2011 before these two played a game that would have cashed an 'under' ticket at this number.

The Jackets are getting more and more comfortable in their new skin with each passing week, and this is a perfect type of weak opponent for Miami's own offensive attack to get healthy again. You can understand why their is support for the 'under' in this game, but understanding a move and agreeing with it are two very different things.

Week 8 Total move to agree with:

Wisconsin/Illinois from 49.5 to 51

The Badgers have looked very impressive all year long, and they come into this game off back-to-back shutout wins over Kent State and Michigan State. They are expected to cruise to an easy victory again this week as they visit Illinois, and while that probably ends up being the case, I don't think they keep the Illini off the scoreboard.

For one, Illinois has been pretty good offensively at home all year long, scoring 42, 31, 38, and 25 points on their own field. Putting up 25 points on Michigan last week is probably their most comparable foe to what Wisconsin brings to the table here, and Lovie Smith and his Santa-like beard will be willing to take more chances and go for broke as a big underdog as he was a week ago when Michigan was in town.

Furthermore, Wisconsin's got a huge game vs Ohio State on deck, and similar to Miami's defense likely toning down the mental focus and energy in executing on every play after a big game against a ranked foe, Wisconsin's in a similar position with that huge game on deck. Don't be surprised to see a few mistakes on the field from this Wisconsin defense this week as they know they can beat Illinois with their eyes closed, as they sit back and let the offense carry the load in terms of getting the outright win. When that type of lack of intensity exists on the defensive side of things, paired up with an Illinois offense that knows how to move the ball at home, Illinois should be able to threaten 15-20 points here.

And yet, Wisconsin will still win this game going away, as Illinois has allowed 40+ points in three straight games, and 34 or more points in each of their last four. Three of those four came at home and all cashed 'over' tickets in the process, and this game likely is no different.

Other Notable Moves

Down

Coastal Carolina-Georgia Southern: 49.5 to 45.5
Boise State-BYU: 50 to 45.5
Arizona State-Utah: 48.5 to 45.5
Oregon-Washington: 50.5 to 48.5
Kentucky-Georgia: 48 to 46
Old Dominion-UAB: 44 to 42
West Virginia-Oklahoma: 65 to 62.5
South Florida-Navy: 53.5 to 51.5
Rice-Texas San Antonio: 44 to 42
UTEP-Florida International: 54 to 52

Up

Kent State-Ohio: 59.5 to 63
Baylor-Oklahoma State: 66 to 68.5
Iowa State-Texas Tech: 55.5 to 57.5
Air Force-Hawaii: 63 to 66.5

[Udog]

by: Monty Andrews


WE CAN SCORE, TOO

Louisville fans haven't forgotten about last year's humiliating 77-16 loss to Clemson – and while the Tigers are heavy favorites for the 2019 rematch, the Cardinals should be able to do some damage as the ACC rivals square off Saturday afternoon. Louisville enters the game ranked 24th in the nation in scoring and has averaged an incredible 51.5 points over its previous two games, both narrow home victories. Clemson, meanwhile, allowed 34 combined points in wins over North Carolina and Florida State, both of whom rank outside the top 60 in scoring offense for the season.

With Louisville having played to the Over in 10 of its previous 14 games and both teams capable of putting up points against one another, we're leaning toward the Over here.


NOT TAMING THESE TIGERS

Only three teams in the country have scored on every trip into the red zone – and the LSU Tigers have by far the most red-zone visits of the three as they look to continue their red-hot run Saturday against Mississippi State. LSU is a perfect 34-for-34 inside the opponents' 20-yard line so far this season, with 29 of those ventures resulting in touchdowns. And while the Bulldogs boast one of the most impressive red zone defenses (opponents have scored just 70.8 percent of the time), they were torched for 56 points in their only other true test of the season against the Auburn Tigers.

LSU quarterback Joe Burrow has no shortage of weapons, and his knack for putting up points in the red zone should make LSU a great candidate to go Over its team total despite recent offensive struggles against the Bulldogs.


FIRST HALF DROUGHT?

If recent trends hold true, there could be a major lack of scoring in the opening half of Saturday night's marquee Big Ten encounter between heated rivals Michigan and Penn State. The host Nittany Lions boast one of the top first-half defenses in the nation, holding FBS teams to just 6.6 points per game prior to the break. The Wolverines have also been stout over the opening 30 minutes this season, limiting opponents to 11 points per contest. And both sides have been positively dominant of late, with Michigan allowing just 10 total first-half points in their past three games and Penn State giving up 13 in that same span.

You probably know where we're going with this, but we're going to tell you anyway: we favor the Under on the first-half total here, along with the Under on both first-half team numbers.


EXTENDING THOSE DRIVES

Wake Forest is still stinging from last week's stunning 62-59 loss to Louisville, but has at least one statistical trend on its side as it welcomes Florida State to BB&T Field. The Demon Deacons have been one of the top third-down teams in the country through the first half of the college football calendar, with its 53.3-percent success rate (56-for-105) ranking behind only Ohio State, LSU, Texas and Alabama. The Seminoles rank in the middle of the pack in third-down conversion rate allowed (36.8 percent) and did well to limit the Clemson Tigers to a 5-for-16 showing in last week's loss.

Wake should be proficient enough on third down to make good on the cover here, but everything changes if quarterback Jamie Newman is unable to suit up – so monitor his progress and act accordingly.


OREGON’S HUGE LOSS

Oregon Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert will be without one of his favorite targets for the remainder of the season. Standout tight end Jacob Breeland will miss the rest of 2019 with a left knee injury suffered in the second quarter of last weekend's 45-3 home victory over the Colorado Buffaloes. Breeland had emerged as a potential impact NFL draft pick with the Ducks this season, hauling in 26 passes for 403 yards and six touchdowns. Senior Ryan Bay will take over as the Ducks' primary tight end as Oregon tangles with the Pac-12 rival Washington Huskies this weekend.

This game was shaping up as a defensive showcase even without the specter of Breeland's injury; with Herbert now without a significant receiving threat, we're even more on board with the Under here.


USC DOWN A BACK

USC running back Vavae Malepeai is out indefinitely after agreeing to undergo surgery on his troublesome knee. Malepeai has played in every game, but head coach Clay Helton acknowledged that the junior rusher has been dealing with knee soreness for a while and will undergo a procedure to "clean out" the knee. Malepeai has been the primary rushing option for the Trojans so far this season, racking up 406 yards and four touchdowns on 87 attempts. Stephen Carr and Markese Stepp will likely split the bulk of the work in Malepeai's absence, beginning with Saturday's home game vs. Arizona.

The Wildcats' defense has been downright dreadful this season – and with Carr and Stepp averaging a combined 6.3 yards per carry between them, the USC offense shouldn't miss a beat. We favor the Trojans to exceed their team point total.


FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!

The Vanderbilt Commodores' starting quarterback job is officially up for grabs. So says head coach Derek Mason, who hasn't decided whether Deuce Wallace or Riley Neal will get the call for Saturday's game against the Missouri Tigers. Neal started last week's 34-10 drubbing at the hands of the UNLV Rebels and struggled big-time, completing just 11 of 25 passes for 104 yards with an interception. Wallace relieved him and also languished, going 5-for-16 for 36 yards through the air. Vanderbilt passers have completed just 54.7 percent of their attempts with four TDs and four INTs on the season.

Running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn is the only legitimate offensive weapon on the Commodores' roster – and he could be in for a long day against a Missouri defense allowing just 3.15 YPC. We see Vanderbilt coming in Under its team total.

[Udog]

College football Saturday odds and line moves: Book needs Michigan in battle vs Penn State
Patrick Everson

Journey Brown and Penn State put their perfect record on the line against visiting Michigan on Saturday night. The Nittany Lions opened -7.5, got bet up to -9, then peeled back to the opening line.

College football Week 8 features a Big Ten clash among two teams aiming to stay in the national championship conversation. We check in on the action and odds movement for that tilt and several others, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US, and Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage in Las Vegas.

No. 16 Michigan Wolverines at No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions – Open: -7.5; Move: -8; Move: -8.5; Move: -9; Move: -8.5; Move: -7.5

Penn State looks to stay unbeaten in this 7:30 p.m. ET showdown, easily the biggest game of the week. The Nittany Lions (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) won a defensive slog at Iowa in Week 7, 17-12 as 3.5-point favorites.

Michigan faces more of a must-win situation, having already dropped one game, a Week 4 blowout setback at Wisconsin. Last week, the Wolverines (5-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) blew almost all of a 28-0 lead at Illinois, but Jim Harbaugh’s squad ultimately won 42-25 as 24.5-point faves.

Despite this line dropping back to the opener of Penn State -7.5, William Hill US is rooting for the underdog.

“We’re gonna need Michigan,” Bogdanovich said “It will be the biggest-bet game of the day. Right now, everyone is on Penn State.”

No. 12 Oregon Ducks at No. 23 Washington Huskies – Open: -2.5; Move: -3

The Pac-12’s chances of earning a CFP bid are not particularly strong, but Oregon is arguably the best remaining hope. The Ducks (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) won five in a row after a season-opening neutral-site setback to Auburn. In Week 7, Oregon hammered Colorado 45-3 laying 23.5 points at home.

Many thought Washington would be a CFP contender this year, but two outright losses as double-digit chalk – home against California and at Stanford – squelched those thoughts. The Huskies (5-2 SU and ATS) followed the Stanford setback by ripping Arizona 51-27 laying 6 points on the road in Week 7.

“It looks like we’ll need Washington,” Bogdanovich said of this 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. “The early money is on Oregon, and it looks like it’s public money.”

No. 9 Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks – Open: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5

Florida had a very difficult two-game stretch and ended up splitting those contests. Following a Week 6 home win over Auburn, the Gators (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) went to Louisiana State as 14.5-point pups and were in it almost the entire way before bowing out 42-28.

Meanwhile, South Carolina is a middling 3-3 SU but is coming off a monster upset and has cashed four of its last five. The Gamecocks (4-2 ATS) were 20.5-point road ‘dogs against unbeaten Georgia, but came away with a 20-17 double-overtime victory in Week 7.

Gamecocks QB Ryan Hilinski sprained his left knee in the third quarter of the win, but he will play in one of Saturday’s first kicks, a noon ET start.

Bogdanovich said bettors aren’t putting a lot of stock in South Carolina’s upset.

“I think the sharps are on the ‘dog here, but we’ll need South Carolina pretty good,” he said.

No. 18 Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys – Open: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -4

Baylor quietly brings a 6-0 SU record (3-3 ATS) into this 4 p.m. ET Big 12 contest. The Bears nearly lost that perfect mark in Week 7, edging Texas Tech 33-30 in double overtime giving 10.5 points at home.

Oklahoma State, coming off a bye week, is among the nation’s best at covering the number this year. However, the Cowboys (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) went to Texas Tech as 9-point Week 6 favorites and exited with a 45-39 outright loss. Mike Gundy’s squad had a bye in Week 7.

“Oklahoma State is a sharp side here, for sure,” Shelton said of smart action that helped push this line up a point at The Mirage and other MGM books. “Sharps and public are on the same side. Money is 4/1 and tickets 2/1 on Oklahoma State.”

No. 20 Minnesota Golden Gophers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights – Open: -29.5; Move: -28.5

This game would normally fly right under the radar, except that both MGM and William Hill books hold significant parlay liability on undefeated Minnesota. MGM took a $50,000 two-teamer of Minnesota -29.5/Ohio State -28.5 to win $130,000, and the latter got there easily Friday night at Northwestern. WillHill took $60K on Minnesota -29/Ohio State -28, to win just shy of $160,000.

The Golden Gophers (6-0 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-7 rout of Nebraska as 7.5-point home faves. Rutgers (1-5 SU and ATS) lost at Indiana 35-0 catching 27.5 points last week and has just seven total points in four Big Ten games this year.

“This could end up being our biggest game of the day,” Shelton said of a 3:30 p.m. ET meeting. “If Rutgers just hangs within 30, we’ll be good. But we’re a six-figure loser to Minnesota by 30 or more. The public is on the Gophers’ side too – 3/1 money and 10/1 tickets.”

Other noteworthy matchups:

• No. 17 Arizona State at No. 14 Utah, 6 p.m. ET: The Utes moved from -13 to -14 at William Hill US by Wednesday. “It’s actually good two-way action right now, but I think we’ll need Arizona State,” Bogdanovich said.

• No. 13 Boise State at Brigham Young, 10:15 p.m. ET: It’s one of those get-even or get-even-deeper games, with a late kickoff. The Broncos inched up from -6.5 to -7 Thursday. “We’re gonna need BYU pretty big. All the money is for Boise State,” Bogdanovich said.

• Iowa State at Texas Tech, noon ET: The Cyclones moved from -6 to -7 at MGM books. “This one’s all Iowa State,” Shelton said. “Ticket count not too bad, but money is 10/1 on Iowa State.”

• Toledo at Ball State, 2 p.m. ET: This line jumped the fence, from Toledo -1 to Ball State -2.5. “That’s another sharp game. They’re on Ball State,” Shelton said, noting MGM books will need Toledo.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 8
Joe Williams

College Football Week 8 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 46-16
Against the Spread 33-29

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 40-22
Against the Spread 29-33

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 33-29

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 411-96
Against the Spread 256-241-10

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 345-158
Against the Spread 240-253-10

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 239-266-8

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Illinois (+30.5, ML+2500) vs. Wisconsin, 24-23
Vanderbilt (+21, ML +1000) vs. Missouri, 21-14
Georgia Tech (+18.5, ML +700) at Miami-Fla., 28-21 (OT)
Oregon State (+10.5, ML +325) at California, 21-17
Eastern Michigan (+9.5, ML +275) vs. Western Michigan, 34-27

The largest favorites to cover
Oklahoma (-33.5) vs. West Virginia, 52-14
Minnesota (-28.5) at Rutgers, 42-7
Ohio State (-27.5) at Northwestern, 52-3
Clemson (-24) at Louisville, 45-10
Utah State (-21) vs. Nevada, 36-10

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- SMU kept their perfect season alive with a 45-21 win over Temple. Not only are the Mustangs 7-0 SU, they're 6-1 ATS with the 'over' cashing in each of their seven games. ... South Florida was roughed up by Navy, 35-3, as the Bulls slipped to 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS. The Middies have quietly posted a 5-1 SU/ATS mark at the halfway point. ... Memphis tuned up a very good Tulane, 47-17, as Kenneth Gainwell became the first player to receive for 200 yards and rush for 100 yards in a single game since Troy Edwards (La. Tech) in 1997. The Tigers improved to 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS, and the 'over' has cashed in four straight. ... Cincinnati picked up a 24-13 win over Tulsa, improving to 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS. The 'under' has cashed in five of seven for the Bearcats.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Georgia Tech pulled off one of the biggest stunners of the day at Miami-Florida, winning 28-21 in overtime. The Hurricanes have been so hard to figure out. They surprised Virginia last week, a Top 25 team, then lost to a team they were favored by 18 points. Miami is now 3-4 SU/ATS after opening in the Top 25 rankings. ... Miami will travel to Pittsburgh next week. The Panthers won at Syracuse by a 28-20 score for their fifth cover in the past six games, as they keep their Coastal Division hopes alive. The Panthers are a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road this season. ... Florida State slipped up at Wake Forest, falling 22-20, as the Seminoles just can't seem to get on track, and stay on track. The Seminoles are now 3-4 SU/2-4-1 ATS. Meanwhile, Wake recovered from last week's 62-59 loss at home to Louisville, moving to 6-1 SU/3-3-1 ATS. ... Speaking of the Cards, they were no match for Clemson, falling to the Tigers 45-10. After a 21-20 near-miss at UNC, the Tigers are 2-0 ATS, averaging 45.0 PPG, while the defense has yielded 14 or fewer points in six of seven.

BIG TEN

-- Illinois was the big story of the day, as they upended Wisconsin, 24-23 for the first signature win of the Lovie Smith era in Champaign. They won outright as 30.5-point underdogs at home, cashing at +2500 on the moneyline. It was the second-largest upset over the past 40 seasons, and largest since Northwestern beat Minnesota outright as a 32-point underdog in 1982. ... Speaking of Minnesota, there were no upset of the Gophers this week. They won 42-7 at Rutgers to improve to 7-0 SU. After opening the season 0-2-1 ATS, they have rattled off four straight covers, too. ... Michigan earned the cover at Penn State, but the Wolverines had a touchdown slip through a receiver's hands late which would have given them a chance to tie or go for two and win. The Nittany Lions are quietly 7-0 SU, but just 4-3 ATS. The 'over' result was the first since Sept. 7 after four straight 'under' results. ... Indiana picked up a 34-28 win over Maryland 34-28, in a result which was a small bad beat (see below).

BIG 12

-- The Kansas-Texas game wasn't supposed to be one of the better ones of the day, as the Longhorns were favored by 21. But it was a good ol' fashioned Texas shootout, with a total of 50 points in the fourth quarter alone. When the dust cleared, it was Texas winning 50-48 in a great game at DKR. The Jayhawks have covered back-to-back games against Oklahoma and Texas after starting out 1-4 ATS in the first five. ... Texas Tech was involved in another bad beat this week, and it was the total yet again. Iowa State won the game 34-24, going 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS across the past three outings. ... As far as the Sooners were concerned, they waylaid West Virginia by a 52-14 score as the 'over' connected. The Sooners covered the largest spread of the day in college football. ... Baylor kept their record unblemished with a solid road win at Oklahoma State, 45-27. The Cowboys opened the fourth quarter with a touchdown, giving them a 27-24 lead, but the Bears stormed back with 21 unanswered points. The Bears are 7-0 SU, but just 4-3 ATS.

CONFERENCE USA

-- Western Kentucky started the season with a loss at home to FCS Central Arkansas, and it looked like it would be a lost season for the Hilltoppers. They have turned things around big time. WKU topped Charlotte 30-14 to improve to 4-0 SU/ATS in conference play. The 'under' is also a perfect 4-0 over the past four outings for WKU. ... Florida International scratched out a 32-17 win over UTEP, as the Miners managed a cover. FIU has won three straight, although they're just 2-5 ATS overall. The Miners are 0-5 SU against FBS opponents, but they have covered two of the past three. The 'under' is 3-0 in the past three for UTEP. ... Louisiana Tech fell at Texas to open the season, but they have won six in a row while covering four of the past five. ... UAB rolled to a 38-14 win over Old Dominion, 38-14. The Blazers have won and covered three in a row, and they are 5-1 ATS over the past six outings.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Toledo was stunned last week, and this week they were short 'dogs at Ball State. The Cardinals rolled up a 52-14 win over the reeling Rockets, who suddenly find themselves 4-3 SU/3-4 ATS, and not feeling very good about their season after a hot start. ... Kent State fell 45-38 in a high-scoring affair at Ohio. The Golden Flashes are just 3-4 SU, but they're a solid 3-1 ATS across the past four, with KSU going 3-0 ATS inside the MAC. ... Miami-Ohio posted a straight-up win over Northern Illinois as short 'dogs, winning 27-24. The Redhawks are 3-4 SU/ATS overall, but they have going 3-0 SU at home, and 2-0 ATS in two games against FBS opponents while the 'over' is also 3-0 in their three home outings. ... Buffalo made it interesting, but they won and covered at Akron by a 21-0 count. The Zips slipped to 0-7 SU/ATS, while the Bulls are 3-4 SU, but a solid 3-1 ATS over the past four outings. ... Eastern Michigan surprised Western Michigan by a 34-27 count in Ypsilanti, winning outright as 8.5-point underdogs. The Eagles are now 4-3 SU, but this was their first cover since Sept. 14, an outright win at Illinois.

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- San Diego State scratched out a 27-17 road win over San Jose State, picking up their sixth win in seven tries, while covering for the third straight outing, and fifth in six contests. The Aztecs have been a favorite of total bettors, too, as the 'under' is 6-1 in seven games for SDSU. ... Nevada got waffled at Utah State, falling 36-10. The Aggies were able to cover the 21-point number, as USU is now 4-2 SU/ATS, including 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in three MWC battles. ... Boise State had their hopes of a New Year's Day bowl game dented by BYU, falling 28-25 in Provo. The Broncos slipped to 6-1 SU, while going 4-2-1 ATS overall. The 'over' has hit in consecutive games for the first time this season for BSU. ... Air Force wasn't distracted in the Islands, winning 56-26 at Hawaii despite losing their starting quarterback, Donald Hammond, to a shoulder injury early on. The Falcons are now 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS, and the 'over' has cashed in four in a row for USAFA.

PAC-12

-- Oregon State surprised California, 21-17. The Beavers have covered five of the past six games overall. ... Arizona suffered a 41-14 road loss at USC, as the Wildcats slipped to 4-3 SU and just 2-4-1 ATS. The Trojans suffered all kinds of injuries, but depth was on display. USC is 4-3 SU/ATS, including 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in four games at home, while going 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in three road games. They're on the road at Colorado next Friday. ... The Buffaloes were hammered by a 41-10 score at Washington State, as the Cougars finally got back on track. It was their first cover since Aug. 31 after an 0-5 ATS skid. ... Oregon picked up a 35-31 win at Washington, as the kept the conference's bleak playoff chances alive. The Ducks have won six in a row since falling to Auburn in a neutral-site battle on Aug. 31, and they're 3-1 ATS over the past four outings.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Alabama lost QB Tua Tagavailoa to a high-ankle sprain, and head coach Nick Saban said after the game that he expects Tua to miss "one to two weeks". That means QB Mac Jones will start against Arkansas next week, so watch that line carefully. The Crimson Tide won 35-13 over Tennessee even without Tua for a good chunk of the game. The Tide are now 7-0 SU, but just 3-4 ATS, and they have failed to cover consecutive games all season. ... LSU roughed up Mississippi State by a 36-13 count in Starkville, keeping their record unblemished and on a collision course with 'Bama on Nov. 2. The Tigers are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS. The Bulldogs are 0-3 SU/ATS over the past three outings. ... Texas A&M found a way to get it done at Mississippi, 24-17. The Aggies scored a late TD with 2:34 to go, making it 24-14. Lucky for A&M bettors, the Rebels elected to kick a field goal with :26 left to make it a one-possession game, and try for an onside kick. They didn't get it. ... Missouri was stunned at Vanderbilt, as the Commodores won outright as 21-point 'dogs (+1000 ML). It's the same Vandy team which was hammered by UNLV last week.

SUN BELT

-- Georgia State took care of Army 28-21, as the Panthers are now 5-2 SU and 4-1-2 ATS overall. That's one win away from bowl eligibility. Their only losses have been a blowout at Western Michigan, and a triple-overtime loss at Texas State. ... Appalachian State topped Louisiana-Monroe, 52-7, and their hopes of a New Year's Day bowl are alive and well, helped out by Boise's loss. The Mountaineers are now 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS, covering four straight. ... If you had the 'under' in the Coastal Carolina-Georgia Southern game, condolensces. See below.

Bad Beats

-- With a total of 57 on the board, Iowa State held a 34-17 lead over Texas Tech with 1:30 to go. However, QB Jeff Duffey hit T.J. Vasher for a short touchdown pass to push the total 'over'. The Red Raiders were involved in a bad beat total for the second straight week, although this one wasn't nearly as raw as last week.

-- The Coastal Carolina-Ga. Southern game had a total of just 45. That looked super highin the fourth quarter, with Coastal trailing 10-7 midway through the final period. They booted a field goal to make it 10-10. The teams went to overtime, and suddenly the offensive spigot was turned on, as the teams exchanged touchdowns in both the first and second overtimes, to push the total over. Eventually it was GSU pulling out the 30-27 victory. You'll definitely be seeing this one on Scott Van Pelt's segment.

-- Indiana was up 31-28 with just under three minutes to go at Maryland. They kicked the field goal with 2:49 to go, serving up Terps side bettors a slight bad beat -- although really, it was just a backdoor cover.

-- With 2:27 to go, Auburn scored a meaningless touchdown in terms of the result. They were up 44-10 with 2:27 to go before scoring a touchdown to make it 51-10. If you were holding an 'under' (55) ticket, that was bad news.

-- In the Middle Tennessee-North Texas game, there were 53 points on the board with a total of 59.5 on the board. The Blue Raiders scored a touchdown to tie the game 30-30. Total bettors were wishing they went for two, and missed it. Eventually UNT kicked a field goal to win it 33-30 at the gun, crushing anyone who had a Blue Raiders ML ticket.

-- Over bettors in Charlotte-Western Kentucky looked to be in good shape with 44 points on the board through three quarters. They needed just four points, but received a scoreless fourth quarter instead.

[Udog]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 8
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the eighth big weekend of the college football season in mid-October.

Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Troy (-18) 37, South Alabama 13: This Wednesday Sun Belt game was a 10-10 tie just before halftime before Troy managed a pair of field goals in the final 68 seconds. The lead was just 10 through three quarters as the underdog was promising on a spread that trickled past the key number of 17 to 17½ and even a few closing lines hit 18. The game changed dramatically with a 29-yard interception return touchdown that suddenly put Troy up by exactly 17. South Alabama appeared in position to get a score to keep the underdog in position to cover in most scenarios but an intentional grounding call pushed the Jaguars out of scoring range on a fourth quarter drive and Troy burned more than eight minutes of clock and eventually added seven more to lead by 24. South Alabama would reach the Troy 36-yard-line in the final minutes looking to get back within 17 for a narrow cover but a fumble ended the threat.

UL-Lafayette (-5½) 37, Arkansas State 20: The spread on the road favorite dropped in the hours before kickoff Thursday night but Louisiana led by 14 at halftime. The Red Wolves added a third quarter field goal and an early fourth quarter touchdown to get within the number down by just four. The Ragin’ Cajuns responded with a nice kickoff return and added a touchdown five minutes later to lead by 10, actually missing on the PAT. Needing to go for it on fourth down near midfield Arkansas State fell short and gave Louisiana good field position and two plays later they hit the end zone for a 37-20 edge and for good measure got an interception to hold off a late scoring threat from Arkansas State.

Fresno State (-16½) 56, UNLV 27: Fresno State led by just eight late in the third quarter but a fumble return touchdown put the Bulldogs in range to cover the home favorite spread that fluctuated back and forth from extremes of -13½ up to -16½.The Bulldogs would then take over in the fourth quarter with three touchdowns in the span of fewer than three minutes of game clock thanks to more UNLV turnovers, with eventually a 5-0 edge in takeaways leading to the lopsided final margin for Fresno State.

Clemson (-24½) 45, Louisville 10: A touchdown just before halftime put Clemson up 17-3 after a tight first half. The highly ranked Tigers only added seven points in the third to lead by 17 but posted two quick touchdowns early in the fourth to pull away before the teams traded late scores. Clemson had two turnovers but also posted a 551-263 edge in yards.

Ohio (-9) 45, Kent State 31: This contest turned into a MAC shootout with a 24-24 tie at the half before the pace slowed with Kent State tying the game with 10 minutes to go at 31-31. Ohio would score two touchdowns in the span of just over three minutes late in the game to pull ahead by 14 but Kent State would get a late score to get back within the number with 31 seconds to go on a 3rd down play, after converting a 4th-and-7 on its own side of the 50 earlier in the drive, with a stop there ending the game and holding the favorite cover for the Bobcats.

Florida (-3½) 38, South Carolina 27: The Gamecocks looked poised for a second straight upset in the SEC East with a 20-17 lead into the fourth quarter. Florida scored to go up by four and the Gamecocks had a fumble on its next possession and then was stopped trying to convert a 4th-and-2 with the Gators responding with touchdowns, in both instances while getting away with potential penalties. The Gamecocks got back within 11 with about two minutes remaining and actually had the ball back across midfield in the final seconds but Florida escaped with an 11-point win despite an even contest that saw the Gamecocks post 33 more yards and a solid rushing edge but with the officials squarely in the spotlight.

Kansas State (+4½) 24, TCU 17: A blocked punt set-up an early Kansas State score and that proved to be the difference in this Big XII clash despite substantial production edges for TCU. Gary Patterson opted to punt in Kansas State territory several times in the game and his conservative game plan would bite in the end as Kansas State put together a 95-yard touchdown drive late in the game to break a 17-17 tie, a drive in which Kansas State more than doubled its rushing total for the game on one 61-yard scramble and wound up converting a big 4th down instead of a medium-range field goal try. TCU reached the Kansas State 36-yard line before a costly sack made the down-and-distance too much to overcome and Kansas State won despite a massive rushing deficit in a turnover free game.

Georgia Southern (-7) 30, Coastal Carolina 27: The box score doesn’t look like an overtime game but Coastal Carolina held Georgia Southern off the scoreboard in the second half and got a fourth quarter field goal to force extra time. After matching touchdowns Georgia Southern went first in overtime #2 and scored a touchdown in one play to give a glimmer of hope to those on the favorite spread commonly at -6½. It took a lengthy drive and a 4th down conversion but the Chanticleers were able to even up the score. In the third period they settled for three and Georgia Southern converted a big third down and got into the end zone on the next play.

Buffalo (-18) 21, Akron 0: To say offense was tough to come by would be quite the understatement in this MAC game as Buffalo scored a first quarter touchdown and then neither offense scored again with total yardage running at 254-196. Buffalo had two fumble return touchdowns including a fourth quarter recovery that was enough to get past the heavy road favorite spread.

Oregon (-2½) 35, Washington 31: These Pac-12 North powers provided another great game as Washington held a 31-21 lead late in the third quarter. Oregon connected for a touchdown as time expired on the third, still trailing by three as a slight road favorite with the spread coming down from -3 by kickoff. Washington was held to back-to-back 3-and-outs as a Ducks program not often known for defense has led on that side of the ball this season. That set-up a season-defining drive for Justin Herbert and the Ducks, going in front by four with five minutes to go. Washington was a serious threat late but a sack and a penalty pushed the Huskies to eventually face 3rd-and-23 and while they got a big chunk to make it a manageable 4th-and-3, Jacob Eason fell incomplete with Washington just outside of reasonable field goal range as Oregon escaped to keep the Pac-12 alive nationally while narrowly cashing the favorite tickets.

Minnesota (-29) 42, Rutgers 7: The Gophers are now the last team standing in the Big Ten West now with a 7-0 start with the past five wins coming primarily against backup quarterbacks. Rutgers wasn’t a threat to win this game but the heavy underdog cover was in play with only a 21-0 deficit heading into the fourth. Minnesota scored three times in fewer than three minutes in the fourth quarter including an interception return touchdown as a late Rutgers touchdown to eliminate the shutout wasn’t enough.

Utah (-16) 21, Arizona State 3: The Utes turned in a dominant defensive performance but covering a more than two touchdown spread requires points and Utah led just 14-3 through three quarters. A muffed punt with just over five minutes remaining handed the Utes the field position it needed and on first down Zack Moss rushed for a 32-yard score to slip past the number.

Louisiana Tech (+2½) 45, Southern Miss 30: The Golden Eagles led 27-17 late in the third quarter but Louisiana Tech went 90 yards in just over a minute to climb within three as a slight home underdog. The Bulldogs took over in the fourth quarter with back-to-back scores and added a late exclamation point with an interception return touchdown to create a misleading final result in Conference USA play.

Baylor (+6) 45, Oklahoma State 27: The Bears trailed by three in the fourth quarter of this game but scored 21 points in four minutes to storm past Oklahoma State in stunning fashion in Stillwater, moving to 4-0 in Big XII play.

Texas A&M (-6) 24, Mississippi 17: Ole Miss had a substantial yardage edge and a 14-10 third quarter lead but a 62-yard fumble return touchdown shifted the trajectory of the game putting the Aggies in front heading into the fourth quarter. Mississippi had a missed field goal and an interception on its next two possessions and on a short field Texas A&M added a fourth quarter touchdown to go up by 10. In the final minute the Rebels reached the red zone but opted to kick a field goal down two scores and did not come up with the on-side kick for a brutal narrow loss for anyone on the home underdog at +6 of +6½

Virginia Tech (+4) 43, North Carolina 41: North Carolina led early but the game was tied in the fourth quarter 24-24. Both teams traded touchdowns in the span of 40 seconds late in the fourth quarter before overtime was needed. Field goals were exchanged and then North Carolina went first in OT #2 getting seven to give the road favorite a great chance to escape. On 4th-and-3 the Hokies not only converted but got the tying score. The third and fourth overtimes featured four missed field goals and the new overtime rules went into place for the first time, trading two-point conversion attempts instead of full drives after the fourth session, effectively sealing the spread win for the underdog Hokies. Both teams failed in the conversions in OT #5. The Tar Heels came up empty again in the sixth session before the Hokies sealed the upset.

Penn State (-7½) 28, Michigan 21: A more fascinating statistical game will be tough to find as Penn State jumped out to a 21-0 lead halfway through the second quarter and then wound up held to 85 yards the rest of the game. Michigan drew within seven with a late third quarter score but Penn State would connect on one more big play that they needed with a 53-yard touchdown pass early in the final frame. Michigan answered quickly to get back within seven and within the underdog spread that was commonly +9 before falling back to +7½. Michigan’s defense got a 3-and-out, but the offense couldn’t convert reaching 1st-and-goal and eventually coming up short on 4th down at the 3-yard-line, despite posting a 417-283 total yardage edge and a 26-14 first down edge.