NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thur., Oct. 10 - Mon., Oct. 14)

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 6
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Seahawks at Browns (PK, 46) – 1:00 PM EST

Seattle (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) escaped past Los Angeles in Week 5 with a nail-biting 30-29 home victory to improve to 2-0 in NFC West play. Russell Wilson continues to put together a terrific season for Seattle by throwing four touchdown passes, but the Seahawks dropped to 0-3 ATS at home after failing to cash as 1 ½-point favorites. The Seahawks have been solid to back on the road this season by winning at Pittsburgh and Arizona, while scoring 28 and 27 points, respectively in those victories.

On the flip side, the Browns (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) have been tough to figure out this season. Granted, the expectations have been elevated, but Cleveland has not put together two solid performances in a row this season the Browns lit up the Ravens for 40 points, but were held to three points in last Monday’s blowout loss at San Francisco. The Browns have yet to win a game at home in two tries in 2019, but Cleveland has not dropped consecutive contests since Week 8 and Week 9 of last season.

Cleveland is 0-2 this season against NFC foes, while Seattle has beaten each of its two opponents from the AFC. Dating back to 2017, the Seahawks have covered eight consecutive games off an ATS loss, while the Browns’ offense has rebounded off a defeat this season by scoring 23 and 40 points following a setback.

Best Bet: Browns 26, Seahawks 24

Eagles at Vikings (-3, 44) – 1:00 PM EST

Two seasons ago, Philadelphia (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) destroyed Minnesota (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) in the NFC championship game as short underdogs on its way to the franchise’s first ever Super Bowl victory. The Eagles won that title behind Nick Foles at quarterback, as Carson Wentz looks to bring Philadelphia back into the top of the NFC. Wentz has led the Eagles to wins the last two games following a 1-2 start in victories over the Packers and Jets, as Philadelphia has topped the 30-point mark in each contest. The Eagles covered in their only underdog opportunity in 2019 at Green Bay, while posting a 3-0 ATS mark in their last three chances when receiving points.

The Vikings have cruised to home victories over the Falcons and Raiders by double-digits each, while coming off their first road win of the season against the Giants. Minnesota’s two losses came within the NFC North against Green Bay and Chicago, as the Vikings were limited 22 points in those defeats. The Vikings’ defense has been solid this season by allowing 16 points or fewer in four of five games, resulting in a 4-1 mark to the UNDER.

Minnesota avenged the 2017 NFC Championship loss by edging Philadelphia last season, 23-21 as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Vikings jumped out to a 20-3 advantage before the Eagles crept within two points in the final minute. Both Wentz and Kirk Cousins each threw for over 300 yards in that game, but each team was limited to below 81 yards on the ground.

Best Bet: Eagles 20, Vikings 17

49ers at Rams (-3, 50 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

Only one team remains undefeated in the NFC and it’s the 49ers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS), who are fresh off a 31-3 blowout over the Browns last Monday. San Francisco easily cashed as five-point favorites off the bye, highlighted by an 83-yard touchdown run by Matt Breida and two touchdown passes from Jimmy Garoppolo. The Niners own a solid 10-2 record since 2017 with Garoppolo starting at quarterback, as five of those wins have come away from Levi’s Stadium.

The Rams (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) sit in third place of the NFC West behind the 49ers and Seahawks entering Sunday’s action following consecutive losses to Tampa Bay and Seattle. Los Angeles has yielded 85 points in the past two losses, including 30 points in a one-point defeat at Seattle in Week 5. Rams’ quarterback Jared Goff threw for 395 yards, but L.A. suffered consecutive losses for only the second time under head coach Sean McVay. Running back Todd Gurley scored twice against the Seahawks, but the former University of Georgia standout will miss Sunday’s contest with a quadricep contusion.

Los Angeles swept San Francisco last season, but the Niners also played without Garoppolo in each of those games following his ACL tear last September. The Rams have scored 39 or more points in three of the past four meetings with the Niners, but San Francisco’s defense will be up to the task as it has yielded 57 points in four games this season.

Best Bet: Rams 27, 49ers 20

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 40 ½ - Titans at Broncos

Both Tennessee and Denver have struggled to score points this season as the Titans have scored 17 points or less three times, while the Broncos have posted 20 points or fewer on four occasions. However, Tennessee is coming off a loss to Buffalo last week, as the Titans have posted 43 and 24 points in the role of a road underdog this season. The Broncos have been a bit hit or miss defensively as they have given up 16 and 13 in two games, but also allowed 24, 26, and 27 in three losses.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

New Orleans has rolled to a 3-0 record with Teddy Bridgewater as its starting quarterback, including back-to-back home wins over Dallas and Tampa Bay. The Saints travel to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars, who continue to ride rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew. Jacksonville has covered in three of four games with Minshew starting, including in its last home game against Houston in Week 3. This is the first time that Jacksonville is favored this season, as the Saints may be in a look-ahead spot with a visit to Chicago next week.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Chiefs opened as six-point favorites against the Texans at the Westgate Superbook last Monday, but that number has dropped to four. Kansas City is dealing with injuries on offense as wide receiver Sammy Watkins is listed as doubtful, while Tyreek Hill is a game-time decision after missing the last four games with an injury to his sternum. The Texans are 2-0 ATS on the road this season, including an outright underdog victory over the Chargers in Week 3. Dating back to 2018, Houston has covered in four of the past five opportunities in the road ‘dog role.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

Since beating the Colts in Week 6 at home last season, the Jets have lost 13 of their past 14 games, including an 0-4 start in 2019. New York has failed to cover in its past seven opportunities at Met Life Stadium, while last cashing as a home underdog in Week 16 of the 2017 season against the Chargers. The Jets get quarterback Sam Darnold back in the lineup on Sunday as they face the Cowboys as seven-point underdogs.

[Udog]

SNF - Steelers at Chargers
Matt Blunt

Pittsburgh Steelers at L.A. Chargers (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

After grabbing an easy winner two weeks ago with the 'under' in the Cowboys/Saints game, last week's play on the 'over' in the Colts/Chiefs game was an easy loser in that the two teams never came close to sniffing that total. The Chiefs have a bit of a dilemma on their hands right now with how they expect to handle man coverage, but for an offensive mind like head coach Andy Reid, I wouldn't expect Kansas City's offensive struggles against that form of defense to continue. It's a copy cat league though, so until KC does figure out how to beat man, they are going to continue to see it in high doses.

This week's SNF game has a pair of teams that would tell you they've drastically underperformed this year, as at the beginning of the year, not many would have had the Chargers and Steelers a combined 3-7 straight up heading into this contest. But that's exactly where they stand as neither of them are at .500, and are probably another loss or two away from potentially packing things in for 2019. That's life in the NFL though, and if you get hit hard by the injury bug early in a season like these two teams have, it's awfully tough to turn things around enough to make the year a successful one.

Total Talk

Pittsburgh and Los Angeles have definitely been hit hard by injuries this year, with the most recent significant loss being Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph. Rudolph took a brutal head shot last week, was forced out of the game, and there is no timetable for his return. That means that it's third stringer Devlin Hodges shot at making a start in the NFL this week and for an undrafted guy to be thrust into that role just six weeks in is tough.

At the same time, The Chargers have been hit with injuries at nearly every position on their roster, and starting center Mike Pouncey is the latest Charger to go down. Losing your starting center is huge because he's the guy that's out there scanning defenses and calling out protection schemes – as well as having his hands on the ball each and every play – so it's not like the Chargers don't have their own adversity on the injury front to deal with as well.

All these absences have predictably had an effect on where this SNF total was going to come out, as 41.5 is the number that the game opened at, and it's stayed relatively static all week with about 65% support on the 'under.' And at least on paper, the 'under' does tend to make a lot of sense. You've got two losing teams, one on their third QB of the season, both marred by numerous injuries offensively, and because of all that, neither averages more than the 20.6 points per game the Chargers put up. Pittsburgh comes in at 19.8 PPG on the year, so a total around 41 makes a lot of sense, and to many it makes a lot of sense to go 'under' as well given the extenuating circumstances.

Yet, at the same time, the Chargers have turned the ball over four different times this year inside the 5-yard line, and have shot themselves in the foot all year long with turnovers. LA has turned the ball over eight times this year with the vast majority directly taking points off the board for them. Sloppy play like that is why they come into this game with a losing record, and if they are able to clean up those things this week, I think we could see them look like the team that made it to the Divisional round last January.

On the flip side, Hodges is a relative unknown other then what we saw from him in his relief appearance last week. And while fear of the unknown in all aspects of life tends to have us shy away from those scenarios, you listen to the market here and they've already decided that he's going to be in well over his head this week. It's 'under' recommendations everywhere in the industry, and I'm just not sure this game will be as easy as that.

Sure, Hodges could end up being well over his head and look like the undrafted QB that he is, but him being on unknown commodity also hurts LA's defensive gameplanning because they really don't have a great idea of what to expect. That means the defensive strategy is probably going to look very vanilla early on to leave plenty of room for adjustments, and that in itself isn't an 'over' killer.

Side Spiel

Hodges being an unknown, and all the injuries across the board have me ignoring this side completely out of simply not knowing what to expect. You take away all the turnovers LA has had in critical spots this year and they probably do deserve to be laying about a TD that they are, but at the same time, they've got next to nothing in terms of home field advantage at that stadium, and Pittsburgh may be 1-4 SU, but their last three losses have come by a grand total of nine points.

If Hodges looks like the deer-in-headlights QB that seemingly the world expects him to be, the Chargers likely get the cover. If he doesn't and looks like at least a capable backup in this league, Pittsburgh could keep it close. I'm not about to venture a guess on what this game script turns out to be, so good luck to those of you who are venturing out on a side play for this game.

Final Thoughts

I will venture a guess on the idea that Hodges isn't going to struggle nearly as much as the majority in this industry believe, especially if he gets to see vanilla coverages for the first 15-30 minutes. Yes, the Chargers defense has been great all year in allowing 18.8 points per game, but in each one of those, they knew how to prepare and what to expect from the opposing QB/offense. That's not the case here, and I would not be surprised to see Hodges and the Steelers throw some wrinkles at the Chargers early to keep them off-balanced. If that happens, points should come in a hurry, because the Steelers organization definitely saw enough from Hodges at the collegiate level to give him a contract. Pittsburgh believes he has the skill set to help this organization if he were needed, and right now he's needed.

At the same time, the Chargers offense should be able to clean up these mistakes that have plagued them in recent losses, and make the most of their scoring opportunities. LA has scored 30 points in both of their SU victories this year, so if you do believe the Chargers win this game – as the point-spread would suggest – how can you not figure that LA won't threaten that 30-point barrier offensively here?

The Steelers defense has allowed at least 24 points to every team they've faced this year that's got at least one victory in 2019 – sorry Bengals fans – and that number has been hit by Steelers opponents in both of Pittsburgh's road games this year.

Finally, we can't forget that SNF games this year are a perfect 6-0 'under' this year, and while 'under' supporters will use that as more evidence for that selection, I view it as a negative in that regard. Everyone already wants the 'under' in this game because of the injury situation on both sides, and then there is the confirmation bias on the 'under' run on SNF. To me, that sets up as almost a perfect storm to be contrarian as contrarian gets, and go 'over' this number in a heartbeat. The fact that this game looks like an easy 'under' to the world only makes me feel stronger about doing that too.

So it's not like I haven't been wrong before, and I'll be wrong plenty more in the future, but I've got to give the benefit of the doubt to the Steelers organization in terms of prepping Hodges for this start and to have a play calling strategy that gives him the best chance to succeed. At the same time, I've got to give the benefit of the doubt to a QB like Philip Rivers that he and the rest of the Chargers offense can clean up their turnover issues sooner rather then later and start putting more TD's on the board.

I fell victim to believing last week's SNF game with KC and their high octane offense would be the one to crack the goose egg on 'overs' for SNF this year, but it was probably always going to be a game that everyone least expects to do so that actually does it. This Steelers game with a 3rd/4th string QB at the helm and a banged up Chargers team definitely fits that profile.

Best Bet: Over 41.5

[Udog]

NFL Sunday Week 6 odds and line moves: Despite spread drop, book needs Texans vs Chiefs
Patrick Everson

Deshaun Watson's Houston squad opened as 8-point underdogs for Sunday's game at Kansas City, and the line dropped to -4. But The SuperBook still needs the Texans, as the public piles on the Chiefs.

NFL Week 6 Sunday features a clash of dynamic quarterbacks, in a game seeing reverse line movement. We check in on the action for that contest and three others, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -8; Move: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4

Kansas City was certainly expected to remain among the league’s unbeaten, but got an unpleasant surprise in Week 5. The Chiefs (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) went off as 10.5-point home favorites against Indianapolis in the Sunday nighter, but lost outright 19-13.

Houston has lacked consistency thus far, but the Deshaun Watson-led offense was certainly on the mark in Week 5. The Texans (3-2 SU and ATS) cooked up a 50-plus burger against Atlanta, including 37 second-half points in a 53-32 victory as 4-point home faves.

The SuperBook opened the Chiefs -8 before their Sunday night tilt, took the line off the board during that game, then reopened -6.5 Monday morning. The line since plunged to -4, but looks can be deceiving here.

“We definitely need the Texans,” Osterman said of this 1 p.m. ET kickoff. “Sharps have been on the Texans, but it’s fair to say the Chiefs are the most popular public team. With all Kansas City’s injuries and Mahomes’ ankle, it makes sense that the line moved the way it did. But there’s no shortage of people willing to bet on the Chiefs.

“With Mahomes playing, getting the Chiefs at less than a touchdown, Joe Public is all over that.”

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams – Open: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3

Defending NFC champion Los Angeles heads into this 4:05 p.m. ET start on a two-game skid. In Week 5, the Rams battled back and forth with Seattle, losing 30-29 while cashing as 1.5-point road underdogs in the Thursday night game.

San Francisco is among the last of the league’s unbeatens, joining New England in the rare air. The 49ers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) pounded Cleveland 31-3 in the Week 5 Monday nighter, easily cashing as 5-point home favorites.

This line was off the board during the Niners’ victory, and when it reposted Tuesday morning, it tightened 1.5 points to Rams -3.5.

“We’ve taken a lot on the Niners at +3 (even money), but the liability isn’t huge,” Osterman said. “Respected money on the 49ers early, but there’s been some buyback on the Rams all the way. We need the Rams for a little bit.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -3; Move: -3.5

Philadelphia got back on track over the past two weeks, winning and cashing to tie Dallas top the NFC East. In Week 5, the Eagles (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) drummed the New York Jets 31-6 laying 14 points at home.

Minnesota hopes to end its trend thus far of alternating wins and losses. The Vikings (3-2 SU and ATS) went to MetLife Stadium as 5.5-point favorites in Week 5 and coasted to a 28-10 victory over the Giants.

“The Vikings were at -3 (even), now they’re at -3.5 flat,” Osterman said of line movement for a 1 p.m. ET start. “We’re getting a lot more Eagles support from the public and a little sharp money on the Vikings. For the game, we need the Eagles, but if the Vikings cover, it would knock out a bunch of parlays.”

Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins – Open: -3.5; Move: -4

Winless Miami gets its best chance to break through, facing another winless team in a 1 p.m. showdown of sorts. The Dolphins (0-4 SU and ATS) are coming off their bye week, following a 31-6 loss at Dallas catching 16 points in Week 4.

Washington is in turmoil, firing coach Jay Gruden on Monday after an 0-5 SU start (1-4 ATS). A day earlier, the Redskins got on the board first against New England with a first-quarter touchdown, but didn’t score again in a 33-7 setback getting 15.5 points.

“We’ve taken some Redskins money. We were at -3.5 (even) Thursday, took a $10,000 bet on Washington and went to -3.5 flat, and now we’re at -4,” Osterman said. “We’re definitely gonna need the Dolphins. I don’t see anybody who wants to bet on the Dolphins. That’ll be a decent-size decision by the time the game kicks off.”

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 6
Tony Mejia

Panthers (-2.5/47.5) vs. Buccaneers, 9:30 p.m. ET, NFLN: The Raiders stunned the Bears in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium’s maiden NFL voyage last week. This NFC South showdown ensures we won’t see a major upset but we’ll hopefully get another exciting, competitive game. Tampa Bay is giving up a true home game here as they they attempt to sweep the season series from the Panthers, having taken advantage of a rough second half from Cam Newton to post a 20-14 Week 2 Thursday night win. Christian McCaffrey was denied a go-ahead touchdown at the 1-yard line late in that game but hasn’t been stopped effectively since, posting over 180 yards in three consecutive games, which includes a 237-yard, three-touchdown effort in last week’s win over Jacksonville.

Kyle Allen has benefited from McCaffrey’s brilliance in being able to settle in and comes in 3-0 in place of Newton. Jameis Winston has thrown for 969 yards and nine touchdowns against just two interceptions over the past three games since beating Carolina but has only gotten top receiver Mike Evans on track in one of Tampa’s five games to date. Evans failed to catch a pass and was only targeted three times in last week’s loss in New Orleans, so Winston is going to go out of his way to ensure he gets going early. Mother Nature will also have to supply permission for Evans to truly get involved since rain is expected in North London throughout most of the contest. Carolina has had to do some reshuffling on both sides of the ball with guard Trai Turner still sidelined and DT Kawann Short going down for the season. Tampa also has offensive line issues to mask but got good news in that NFL sack leader Shaquil Barrett (9) is expected to play through an oblique injury.

Bengals at Ravens (-11/48.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Since opening with that 59-10 rout in Miami, the Ravens haven’t covered a single spread. Last week’s OT win at the Steelers ended in a push ATS and snapped a two-game losing streak after surrendering 73 combined points in falling against the Chiefs and Browns. With games against the Seahawks and Patriots scheduled the next two weeks, it’s important that they don’t overlook the winless Bengals as they visit on what’s expected to be a cloudy day in Baltimore. The ‘over’ is 4-1 on the season in Baltimore games as Lamar Jackson and the offense have continued producing, helping average 32.2 points per game for the season.

Cincinnati scored a season-high 23 points in falling at home against Kyler Murray-led Arizona last week. That number matches the Ravens’ lowest-scoring output of the season. Zac Taylor’s offense has struggled to take shape and has clearly missed the presence of top WR A.J. Green, who will remain out in Week 6. Offensive line play has been a hinderance that could resurface in Baltimore since veteran tackle Andre Smith has been ruled out in addition to Cordy Glenn (concussion), who hasn’t played in nearly two months. Andy Dalton will have to rely on the screen game while picking his spots on when to take shots downfield considering he isn’t likely to get a lot of protection. Ravens rookie WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown has been ruled out with an ankle issue while safety Tony Jefferson was ruled out the rest of the season after tearing his ACL last week. Cincy is going to be thin up front with Carlos Dunlap, Kerry Winn and Ryan Glasnow all ruled out.

Seahawks at Browns (PK/46.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: There will be some wind gusts for Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield to deal with, but sunny weather means both should settle in as they attempt to produce in a matchup that ranks among Sunday’s most highly anticipated games. Seattle has scored 27 or more points in four straight but must overcome issues up front against a Myles Garrett-led pass rush since tackle Duane Brown (biceps) isn’t expected to play and guards D.J. Fluker and Ethan Pocic have already been ruled out. Wilson will likely be forced into buying time for his receivers and will have the benefit of RB Chris Carson lining up beside him despite limited participation in practice this past week due to shoulder trouble. Seattle has won and covered in both road games, but the Browns represent a step up in caliber of competition from the Steelers and Cardinals.

Mayfield and the Cleveland offense looked terrible on Monday night, scoring just three points in a 31-3 loss to San Francisco, the team’s second setback by 28 or more points this season. The Browns’ defense will again be without top corner Denzel Ward and impact rookie Greedy Williams, leaving the team vulnerable in the back if Wilson is successful in buying time to throw. Mayfield is looking to find a rhythm with Odell Beckham, Jr. and Jarvis Landry since he comes in completing just 55.9 percent of passes and a league-high eight interceptions. Head coach Freddie Kitchens still has the support of a fan base that’s hoping for the best, but if the production doesn’t pick up -- the Browns have scored just 13 points apiece in both home losses thus far – expect the Dawg Pound to start turning against him.

Texans at Chiefs (-4/55), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Patrick Mahomes made the decision early in the week that he’d be fine for this one after in-game ankle injuries limited his mobility in contributing to last Sunday night’s upset loss to Indianapolis, but we’re about to find out just how much mobility has been restored. WR Tyreek Hill is hoping to return from a collarbone injury suffered in the season opener, which would really help Mahomes since WR Sammy Watkins has been ruled out with a hamstring issue and offensive line play has been a concern.

Conditions for a shootout between Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, picked 10th and 12th in the 2017 NFL draft, look good. Minimal wind will be present and temperatures will be in the low 60s at Arrowhead, as the Texans look to build on a 53-point outburst in beating the Falcons last week. Houston has performed well on the road, covering in losing at the gun in New Orleans in the season’s opening Monday night game while winning outright at the Chargers three weeks ago. Will Fuller stepped up last week as defenses continue to focus on DeAndre Hopkins, while TE Jordan Akins has also flashed. New addition Kenny Stills is hoping to return from a hamstring injury and will be a game-time decision. The Chiefs are hoping to bounce back from their lowest-scoring output since November of 2017, before Mahomes took over Alex Smith.

Saints at Jaguars (-2.5/42.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: All eyes are on the availability of Saints star WR Alvin Kamara, who made the trip to Jacksonville despite an ankle injury and is expected to play. He’s made life easier on QBs Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill, so if he’s unable to go, the Jaguars would offer tremendous value as a slight favorite. Following home wins over the Cowboys and Bucs in which the defense made sizeable contributions, Sean Payton is hoping that Bridgewater can return to his home state and build off becoming the first Saints’ QB not named Drew Brees to throw four touchdown passes in last week’s 31-24 conquest of Tampa Bay. His task will be made more difficult if Jalen Ramsey follows through on his intent to play, returning from back pain that intensified after he requested a trade and expressed his displeasure with the organization.

The offense has unexpectedly become the focal point for Jacksonville due to the emergence of rookie QB Gardner Minshew and top target D.J. Chark, not to mention the fact a slimmer, more explosive Leonard Fournette has had some impressive performances. Minshew is dealing with a groin issue but will play, hoping to foster a new connection with a tight end since the productive James O’Shaughnessy tore his ACL. He was leading the Jags in red-zone targets. Backup tight end Josh Oliver is also out, so Jacksonville is really thin at that spot. Conditions will be clear in North Florida with temperatures in the mid-to-high 80’s expected.

Eagles at Vikings (-3.5/44.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The loser of this game will find themselves unexpectedly 3-3, so this should be a physical, competitive affair between two of the more highly-regarded teams in the wide open NFC. Carson Wentz has produced three games of 30 or more points despite injuries to multiple key receivers, so he should be fine without DeSean Jackson back. Trusted RB Darren Sproles is also going to be sidelined, which means more work for Jordan Howard and rookie Miles Sanders, both of whom have made strides of late.

Philadelphia has had issues with its secondary, which gives Kirk Cousins an opportunity to prove he can handle the challenge of performing well in this type of game. Cousins has really struggled against teams with winning records and was called the weak link of the Vikes’ offense this week by Eagles LB Zack Brown. He’ll have Adam Thielen in the mix after connecting with him seven times for 130 yards and two scores last week and needs to continue to keep Stefon Diggs happy in order to help alleviate concerns over his early-season struggles. Philadelphia wants to keep Dalvin Cook from creating manageable second and third downs for Cousins’ and the offense, so expect the playcalling on first to be the x-factor in this one since the Eagles have excelled against the run thus far.

Redskins (-4/42.5) at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: This brutal matchup between winless teams features teams that have also managed to be 1-8 against the spread despite the benefit of large numbers placed by bookmakers hoping to land some action against substantial favorites. The ‘Skins dumped Jay Gruden, putting Bill Callahan back in the spotlight as the interim coach. The difference between these two organizations seems to be that ownership wants to win while the Dolphins are happily tanking for Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa, the top prize in this upcoming draft.

Callahan is expected to bench QB Colt McCoy, last week’s starter, in favor of Case Keenum and rookie Dwayne Haskins. Washington has been outscored 57-10 in losses to the Giants and Patriots the past few weeks, so picking up a demoralized group with a coaching change and the opportunity to hit the reset button should produce early results. I’d ride the visitors in a first-half bet here against a Miami squad that has been outscored 163-26 thus far. The Dolphins are coming off a bye week, their first under new head coach Brian Flores, but remain banged-up. Injuries to safety Reshad Jones and a number of corners could against leave Miami compromised in the secondary. Plenty of emply seats are expected in Miami Gardens.

Falcons at Cardinals (-2.5/52.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX: Dan Quinn got the dreaded vote of confidence from owner Arthur Blank last weekend after the Falcons’ ugly loss to the Texans, so there’s no question that the pressure is on him to yield results or immediately or risk failing getting out of this month with his job. Since blowing a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI, Atlanta has gone 18-19 in regular-season games and enters this contest in Glendale favored regardless considering the Cardinals are still on the ground floor of Kliff Kingsbury’s rebuilding project while the Falcons are supposed to be a finished product. We’re going to see if that ends up with a new meaning in that they’re finished under Quinn once this one is over.

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are coming of the first win of the Kingsbury era after holding on in Cincinnati. This will be the last game the Cardinals will play without suspended corner Patrick Peterson, which could spell trouble since Matt Ryan does have options out there since Arizona will likely have no choice but to shade coverage to Julio Jones with their top corner availability, which could mean big days for Mohamed Sanu or Calvin Ridley. The Falcons went from Houston to Arizona and have spent significant time together hoping to foster a better connection, so this is a big game for them. Arizona starts a pair of rookies in the back and has ranked near the bottom in most pass defense categories without its most talented player.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 13
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SEA at CLE 01:00 PM
SEA +1.0
U 45.5

NO at JAC 01:00 PM
JAC -2.5
U 43.0

PHI at MIN 01:00 PM
MIN -3.5
U 45.0

CIN at BAL 01:00 PM
CIN +10.5
O 46.5

WAS at MIA 01:00 PM
MIA +5.5
U 42.0

HOU at KC 01:00 PM
KC -3.5
U 54.5

[Udog]

MNF - Lions at Packers
Tony Mejia

Detroit at Green Bay (-3.5, 45.5), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

The schedule commands that the Lions will have the nation’s attention on Monday night. What Matt Patricia’s team does with its opportunity to take over the NFC North lead in mid-October will likely dictate how seriously we all take Detroit going forward.

In some ways, the Lions are the relative we only see on Thanksgiving. We’re happy to give that Honolulu Blue and Silver a hug since it means there’s early football on and everyone is in a good mood, but as the day unfolds, we move on and lose interest. We’ll see where we’re at with all of that in a little over six weeks, but the fact is that the Lions rarely command holding us captive following their annual chance. They haven’t won a playoff game since 1991 and have a 25-year drought going in between division titles, but their start to this season has us stopping to take an early look.

After squandering a 24-6 fourth-quarter lead in winding up tied with the Cardinals, Detroit returned home and pulled off upsets over the Chargers and Eagles before suffering a 34-30 loss to the Chiefs as Patrick Mahomes executed a fourth-quarter comeback by getting his team into the end zone with six seconds left. That game was unique because it featured Mahomes failing to throw a single touchdown pass despite a productive day and also because they were able to hang around against an elite offense despite multiple top defensive players being sidelined.

The Lions have gotten healthier during their bye week and can now more easily see the bright side of standing toe-to-toe with a title contender, albeit one that has now dropped consecutive games after being upset by the Colts and Texans the past two Sundays. Had it not been for a 100-yard fumble recovery that Kansas City’s Bashaud Breeland returned for a third-quarter 14-point swing, we could be talking about undefeated Detroit right now in addition to being really worried about the Chiefs.

As they visit Lambeau Field looking to pull off another upset, it’s worth reminding you that the Lions have actually had the Packers’ number over the past few seasons and have won four of their last five visits to Green Bay. Patricia went 2-0 against the Pack in his first season and closed out 2018 with the franchise’s first shutout of the Packers since 1973 as Aaron Rodgers left the game with a concussion and ended up sidelined as Green Bay fans were forced to watch Detroit kicker Matt Prater finish with more touchdown passes than backup Deshone Kizer, who has since been traded to the Raiders.

Weird things can happen in rivalry games and this one is the NFL’s longest-running series, featuring at least two meetings per season since 1932. The favored team has actually won and covered in 12 of the last 14 matchups, with Detroit’s Week 17 shutout one of the two anomalies. Check out the recent history below for more details.

Rodgers is healthy again but has had some problems finding a great rhythm in the new offense installed by first-year head coach Matt LaFleur, who was named the full-time replacement to long-time leader Mike McCarthy. All of Detroit’s recent success has come against the maligned coach, who won six division titles and Super Bowl XLV but was blamed for Green Bay’s collapse. We’ll see how they fare against Rodgers and a new offense, but Patricia will also have to hope his own attack can continue to flourish against a defense that has been fantastic under coordinator Mike Pettine.

Green Bay defeated the Cowboys last week 34-24 but had Dallas blanked at the break. They’ve surrendered just three points in their five first-quarters thus far this season, so that’s a trend you might want to get in on given the likelihood that Detroit treads lightly early on the road. Westgate lists the Packers as a half-point favorite for the opening 15 minutes, setting the total at 7.5. For a free trend selection featuring Lions RB Kerryon Johnson, click here.

Although light rain is in the forecast for Green Bay early on Monday, skies are expected to clear by kickoff. Cool temperatures await both teams as it’s supposed to dip into the 30s by the time the second half rolls around, so they’ll hopefully have those ball-warmers functioning.

The Packers look to continue a trend that has seen the favorite win and cover five straight times following the Week 1 doubleheader opener in which the Saints barely survived Houston. For more details, check out VI’s MNF Schedule. To dig into a road trend to watch that can be applied to this NFC North matchup, check out Matt Blunt’s most recent Hot & Not Report.

Rodgers and the offense have scored 20 or more points in four straight games after winning in Chicago 10-3 to kickoff the season. Despite missing top receiver Davante Adams, the Green Bay offense has been able to make due with their remaining pieces thanks to Rodgers' quick decisions under center. Adams has been ruled out again with a toe injury. For more on who's in and who's sidelined, check out the injury report below in addition to all the other gambling goodies.

TOTAL TALK

After watching its first two games cash ‘under’ tickets, Green Bay comes into this game on a 3-0 run to the ‘over’ while Detroit has watched the high side cash in three of its first four games.

Despite the current total form for both clubs, the Week 6 finale opened at 46 ½ and the number has dropped to 45 ½ as of Monday at most betting shops. Totals expert Chris David offered up his thoughts on this week’s total in the divisional matchup.

“Backing the ‘under’ in divisional games has been a great investment and VI expert Matt Blunt pointed that out in last week’s Hot & Not Report. The trend remained in play this Sunday with a 2-1 record to the ‘under’ and the one ‘over’ could’ve been anticipated with Carolina and Tampa Bay squaring off in a quick rematch from London after a low-scoring affair in the first encounter back in Week 2,” he said.

David added, “For this NFC North matchup, the ‘over’ is on a 6-1 run in this past seven meetings. Coincidentally, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has barely played or sat out three of the last four games against the Lions and his absence is a large reason why Detroit has won its last four games against Green Bay. At home with Rodgers, the Packers have always been traditionally more potent offensively but this year’s squad hasn’t busted the 30-point mark yet. The Lions have seen the ‘over’ cash in their two road games and those outcomes were helped by both the Detroit offense (27 PPG) and defense (25.5 PPG).”

“My handicapping uses seasonal trends and one angle that fits that approach is with teams playing with rest. Including the Dolphins outcome yesterday, the ‘under’ has gone 3-0 in games with at least one club off their bye week. Last year, Detroit went ‘over’ with rest but its five previous games all watched the ‘under’ connect when the Lions were off the bye and the offense hasn’t been sharp with QB Matthew Stafford. One of those ‘under’ tickets came against Green Bay, an 18-16 win at Lambeau Field in the 2015 regular season. I’m expecting another tight affair here and I believe the Lions will have trouble breaking 20 points. My lean would be to the ‘under’ (45 ½) in the game and to the Detroit team total ‘under’ (20 ½) as well,” said David.

Bettors following the Monday Night Football results have seen the ‘under’ cash in four of the first six games in this primetime slot.

LINE MOVEMENT

Detroit Lions
Projected season win total: 6.5 (Over -150, Under +130)
Odds to win NFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 11/2
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 40/1 to 30/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 80/1 to 60/1

Green Bay Packers
Projected season win total: 9 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 9/4 to 6/5
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 7/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 16/1

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

"The Lions opened as high at +6 and that seemed crazy with how well they have played this season," said Berg, whose excellent observations can be found on Twitter at @PercentBerg. "I'm still not buying this Packers offense. That said, the Lions have always struggled with Green Bay. Public support is heavy for the Packers at -3.5 but sharps bet it to the point where I wouldn't feel comfortable taking +3.5. As usual, the ticket count is 2-1 on the 'over'."

INJURY CONCERNS

While Adams is out, the Packers will get backup RB Jamaal Williams from concussion protocol and also got good news with center Corey Lindsey upgraded to probable. Tackle Bryan Bulaga is also up. The Packers are unlikely to have safety Darnell Savage and CB Tony Brown available but have gotten excellent play in the secondary thus far.

The Lions are going to have top corner Darius Slay back from a hamstring injury and could see the debut of DT DeShawn Hand (elbow). DT Mike Daniels and CB Amani Oruwariye remain sidelined but the Lions are hopeful DT A'Shawn Robinson can return from a knee injury.

Detroit's offense is likely to have top offseason acquisition Danny Amendola in there and is expecting that standout rookie tight end T.J. Hockenson can be cleared from concussion protocol in order to participate.

RECENT MEETINGS

(Lions 7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS last 11, OVER 8-3)
12/30/18 Lions 31-0 vs. Packers (DET +7.5, 44.5)
10/7/18 Lions 31-23 at Packers (DET -1, 50)
12/31/17 Lions 35-11 vs. Packers (DET -7.5, 44.5)
11/6/17 Lions 30-17 at Packers (DET - 2.5, 42.5)
1/1/17 Packers 31-24 at Lions (GB -3.5, 50)
9/25/16 Packers 34-27 vs. Lions (GB -6, 47.5)
12/3/15 Packers 27-23 at Lions (GB -3, 46.5)
11/15/15 Lions 18-16 at Packers (DET +10.5, 49.5)
12/28/14 Packers 30-20 at Lions (GB -7, 46.5)
9/21/14 Lions 19-7 at Packers (DET -2.5, 52.5)
11/28/13 Lions 40-10 at Packers (DET -6, 48.5)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 7 currently has the Packers as a 7-point home favorite over the Raiders, who will be coming in off a bye after a Week 5 upset of the Bears in London. The Lions will face another NFC North rival as the surging Vikings visit Detroit. The initial line is a pick'em.

[BettorsChat]

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