NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thur., Oct. 10 - Mon., Oct. 14)

[Udog]

NFL's Top ATS Teams:

t1. Bills 4-1 ATS
t1. Packers 4-1 ATS
t1. Rams 4-1 ATS
t4. Niners 3-1 ATS
t4. Lions 3-1 ATS
t4. Colts 3-1-1 ATS


NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

32. Dolphins 0-4 ATS
t31. Redskins 1-4 ATS
t31. Falcons 1-4 ATS
t31. Ravens 1-4 ATS
t28. Eagles 1-3 ATS
t28. Chargers 1-3-1 ATS

[Udog]

Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 10

N.Y. GIANTS at NEW ENGLAND (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
G-Men 2-1 vs. line with Daniel Jones starting at QB, they’re also now 7-1 as road dog since last season. After covering 13 of 18, Belichick has dropped 2 of last 3 vs. number. Pats 12-2 “under” last 14 reg season.
Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


Sunday, Oct. 13

CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY - at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London (FOX, 9:30 a.m. ET)
Teams have split spread decisions the past three seasons. Bucs are “under” 7-4 last eleven games, and the “unders” are 5-1 last six meetings.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.


CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bengals are a surprising 5-1 their last six as dog (even after recent Steelers loss on Monday). Ravens 1-6-1 vs. spread last eight at M&T Bank Stadium. Bengals have covered last three meetings.
Tech Edge: Bengals, based on team trends.


SEATTLE at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
If Russell Wilson is a dog here, note 6-1-1 mark for Seahawks in role since LY, 19-7-1 since entering league in 2012. Hawks also 7-1 vs. spread last eight on road. Browns no covers last three at home.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.


HOUSTON at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 2-0 as dog TY, 5-1 in role since 2018. Chiefs surprising just 1-6 vs. spread last seven reg season games at Arrowhead. KC on 8-3 “over” run since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Texans 2-0 as dog TY, 5-1 in role since 2018. Chiefs surprising just 1-6 vs. spread last seven reg season games at Arrowhead. KC on 8-3 “over” run since late 2018.


NEW ORLEANS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints 7-3 “under” last ten away. Meanwhile, Jags are “under” 6-3 last nine at home. J’ville 3-1 vs. line with Minshew at QB, and 4-1 as home dog since LY.
Tech Edge: Jags and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


PHILADELPHIA at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Vikes 5-1 vs. spread last six at home (compared to 2-5 vs. number last seven away). Birds 6-13 last 19 vs. spread reg season, 2-2 last four as dog. Zimmer “under” 17-5-1 since late in 2017 campaign.
Tech Edge: Vikings and “under,” based on team trends and “totals” trends.


WASHINGTON at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Something has to give here! Teams are combined 1-8 vs. line between them this season. Miami “under” 8-4 last 12 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.


SAN FRANCISCO at L.A. RAMS (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Note that Niners had covered five straight in series prior to last season when Rams covered both. SF has won and covered first two away TY after 2-6 road spread mark on road LY. “Overs” 4-1 last five in series. Rams only 2-6 last eight vs. line at home reg season.
Tech Edge: Slight to 49ers and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.


ATLANTA at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Falcs 4-15 vs. spread on reg season road since 2017, Cards 8-12 last 20 vs. spread at Glendale (1-1 TY). Atlanta 1-6 as road chalk since 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to Cards, based on Falcon negatives.


DALLAS at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Dallas on 9-3-1 reg season spread run since mid 2018, though has dropped last two. Jerry Jones also “under” 11-3 last 14 on road. Jets on 0-6-1 spread skid as host and "under" 4-1 last five since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


TENNESSEE at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Broncos 1-8 SU, 2-7 vs. spread since late 2018, 4-10-1 vs. points last 15 as host. Denver also “under” 12-2 last 14. Titans “under” last four TY and 3-1 vs. spread last four away.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.


PITTSBURGH at L.A. CHARGERS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Steelers are 6-1 as dog since LY (1-1 TY). Pittsburgh also on 8-4 “under” run. Bolts just 2-10 vs. spread last 9 as Carson chalk.
Tech Edge: Steel and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


Monday, Oct. 14

DETROIT at GREEN BAY (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Lions on 6-2 spread uptick since late 2018. Matt Patricia 5-2 as road dog since LY, and Lions have won and covered last four meetings (some of those little or no Rodgers). “Overs” are 6-1 last seven in series.
Tech Edge: Slight to Lions and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


TATE OF EMERGENCY

The New York Giants’ No. 1 receiver Sterling Shepard will reportedly be out for a while as he is in the league’s concussion protocol. This will mean Golden Tate will play exclusively out of the slot, one week after returning from suspension and catching three balls for 13 yards.

The perceived increase in the passing game works in our advantage as we may get a higher receiving total for Tate ahead of his extremely difficult matchup versus the New England Patriots’ slot corner Jonathan Jones.

Jones has the best matchup advantage of the game per Pro Football Focus and owns an impressive defensive grade of 90 with a 23 percent catch rate and a minuscule 0.32 yards per route covered.

It’s going to be a tough go for rookie quarterback Daniel Jones as Bill Belichick is 17-5 in games against rookie quarterbacks, including 11-0 at home. Take the Under on Tate’s 54.5 receiving yard total.


TEAM TOTAL TREASURE

Last week we went 5-1 on full-time team totals and it has quickly become one of our favorite early-week prop markets. Here are a couple of our favorites.

San Francisco 49ers (22.5) @ L.A. Rams: We hate putting our money on a recent performance, but with the 49ers averaging the second-most points per game at 31.8 and the Rams having allowed 85 points in their last two, we don’t mind. We know that San Fran will be on a short week and be without the services of Kyle Juszczyk, but the travel is short, and they only had to compete for 35 minutes on Monday night to get the win.

This is a perfect spot for Kyle Shanahan to beat the Rams using play-action off his amazing run scheme which is averaging 200 yards per game. L.A. owns the 24th-ranked DVOA pass defense and allowed Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston to combine for 752 passing yards over Weeks 4 and 5. Jump on the San Fran wagon and grab the Over.

Houston Texans (24.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: We have backed the Chiefs for three-straight weeks and have come up empty. Andy Reid’s team is just finding ways to beat themselves as they have turned the ball over too much and were very close to having two-straight losses heading into their Week 6 matchup.

Houston and Deshaun Watson are coming off an offensively historic win in Atlanta last week and will take their top-10-yards-per-rush attack to KC versus the Chiefs’ 30th ranked DVOA run defense. KC has already allowed Detroit, Baltimore, and Jacksonville to eclipse 24.5 points this year. Hit the Over 24.5 especially with the Texans scoring a TD in100 percent of their red-zone trips while on the road this year.


AGREE TO TENNESSEE

We may have a good read on the Tennessee Titans for the first time ever. We hit them as 3.5-point favs in Week 4 for a winner and faded them versus the Bills’ defense last week for another one. That means that it is time for the kings of inconsistency to continue this week in Denver versus the Broncos. If you didn’t know, the Titans tend to hurt bettors who bet solely on their previous week’s performance.

Mariota is 0-2 at home this year for just 332 yards and one touchdown but 2-1 for 779 yards and eight TDs with a 110.1 QB rating on the road. The Titans are also 2-0 ATS as road underdogs this year as it seems every week the road pups are hitting.

The Broncos are coming off their first win of the year last week and are 2.5-point favorites after facing spreads of +4.5, -2.5, +6, +3, and -3 — covering twice and zero times as the favorite. The Denver rush defense is also allowing 6.3 yards per carry at home which is only worse than...no, not the Dolphins but the Bengals.

We are getting on Tennessee at +2.5 now as it sits at +2 on a few other books.


RAVENS & DEMONS

The biggest story on Tuesday was the turd that Freddie Kitchens, Baker Mayfield, and the Browns dropped in San Fran on Monday night. We do like the value in a bounce back game for the Browns as the public will have the memory of Monday’s embarrassment fresh in their minds. Instead, we are going to look at a team that allowed that same Browns team to total 530 yards of offense for 40 points, just two weeks ago.

The Baltimore Ravens are giving up 32 points to opponents over their last three with injuries to the secondary having a lot to do with that. In that same three-game stretch, the blackbirds are giving up nearly 300 yards of passing and doing even worse at home, surrendering 333 yards through the air a game.

We know that Lamar Jackson and the offense can put up points, so we will avoid the 12-point spread, but there is no reason that the this week's opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, can’t clear their team totals of 17.5 points and first-half team total of 7.5.

[Udog]

NFL's Top Over Teams:

1. Ravens 4-1 O/U
2. Lions 3-1 O/U
t3. Cardinals, Panthers, Cowboys, Packers, Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Raiders, Eagles, Seahawks, Buccaneers, & Redskins 3-2 O/U



NFL's Top Under Teams:

1. Bills 5-0 O/U
t2. Chargers, Vikings, Patriots, Titans, Dolphins, Jets & Niners 4-1 O/U

[Udog]

Trends for this week’s NFL games:

— Ravens covered once in last nine division games.

— Green Bay covered 10 of its last 13 games.

— Giants are 7-2 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.

— Jaguars are 4-22 ATS in last 26 games vs NFC teams.

— Minnesota is 21-5-1 in last 27 games as a home favorite.

— Chargers covered twice in last 10 games as a home favorite.



Notes on all the NFC teams…….

Arizona:
— Cardinals have only one takeaway in their last four games (-2 in TO’s for year).
— Arizona is 14-10-1 ATS in last 25 games as a home underdog.
— Road team covered their last four games.

Atlanta:
— Falcons allowed 12 TD’s on their opponents’ last 25 drives.
— Atlanta averaged 8.1+ yards/pass attempt in four of their five games.
— Falcons covered only four of their last 19 road games.

Carolina:
— Panthers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 ppg, with Kyle Allen at QB.
— Carolina has nine takeaways (+5) in its last three games.
— Panthers ran for only 39 yards in Week 2’s 20-14 home loss to Tampa Bay.

Chicago:
— Bears allowed total of 45 points in Weeks 1-4, then gave up 24 points to Oakland Sunday.
— Chicago was 8-13 on 3rd down vs Washington; other four games? 15-53
— Bears are 0-5 SU/ATS in their last five post-bye games.

Dallas:
— First three games: 18-31 on third down. Last two games: 6-19.
— Cowboys were outscored 26-3 in first half of their last two games.
— Dak Prescott: 35-18 as an NFL starter; 24-5 vs losing teams, 11-13 vs winning teams.

Detroit:
— All four Detroit games have been decided by 4 or fewer points.
— Lions have nine takeaways but also six giveaways in four games this year.
— Detroit won/covered six of its last seven post-bye games.

Green Bay:
— Packers are +7 in turnovers, won/covered four of first five games.
— Green Bay is 22-13-2 ATS in last 37 games as a home favorite.
— Packers scored 88 points in first half of games, 37 in second half.

LA Rams:
— Rams scored 69 points in last two games, but lost both of them.
— Under McVay, LA is 13-7 ATS away from home.
— Average points scored in 2nd half of Ram games this year: 34.8

Minnesota:
— Vikings ran ball for 172+ yards in 4 of 5 games; Bears held them to 40.
— Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 24-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 4-1 in Viking games, only one of which was decided by less than 10 points.

NY Giants:
— Giants scored 32-24 points in their wins, 17 or less in their losses.
— Big Blue is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.

— Giants covered 10 of their last 13 games on natural grass.

New Orleans:
— Saints are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 road games.
— NO opponents converted only 17 of last 49 third down plays.
— Saints won all three of Bridgewater’s starts, scoring 33-12-31 points.

Philadelphia:
— Eagles are 3-0 when they score 31+ points, 0-2 when they do not.
— Philly is 5-3 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.
— Eagles have converted 37-70 third down plays this year.

San Francisco:
— SF ran ball for 702 yards in their last three games.
— 49ers have 11 takeaways in four games, but also eight turnovers.
— Last time SF was NFC’s last unbeaten team was 1984.

Seattle:
— Seahawks scored 27+ points in each of their last four games.
— Seattle is just 21-59 on 3rd down, but scored 98 points on 16 red zone drives.
— Seahawks are 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

Tampa Bay:
— Buccaneers allowed 31+ points in four of their five games.
— Tampa Bay has eight takeaways (+6) in its last four games.
— Average total in Bucs’ last three games: 71.0.

Washington:
— Redskins didn’t score in second half of their last two games.
— Washington is 0-5, with last four losses all by 10+ points.
— Would expect them to run ball with Callahan the new coach.

[Udog]

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 6 odds: Cowboys could get caught looking past Jets
Jason Logan

America’s Team could get caught looking past lowly Gang Green and to a Week 7 Sunday Night Football showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles.

If you’re not using situational handicapping to help unearth NFL betting value each Sunday, you’re missing out on one of the better weapons we can use against the big bad bookies.

Situational capping is pretty simple, if you know what to look for: factoring in unique situations for the teams involved. Some of the more common situational plays – or spot bets – are “letdowns”, “lookaheads”, and “schedule” spots

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan combs through the Week 6 schedule and highlights the best opportunities for spot bettors to take advantage of the NFL odds.

LETDOWN SPOT: ATLANTA FALCONS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (+2.5, 51.5)

The Arizona Cardinals cracked the win column thanks to a nail-biting road victory at Cincinnati last Sunday, giving new head coach Kliff Kingsbury and No. 1 pick QB Kyler Murray their first taste of sweet, sweet NFL victory as well as picking up an emotional win for the franchise following the death of team owner Bill Bidwell.

The Cardinals come back to the desert for a possible letdown spot against a desperate Falcons teams and a head coach whose office chair looks like a Hollywood stunt man in a disaster movie (it’s on fire). Atlanta is 1-4 SU and finished on the wrong end of a 53-32 shootout at Houston in Week 5. A loss to Arizona wouldn’t help Dan Quinn’s cause and after the Redskins canned Jay Gruden, it’s open season on struggling head coaches.

The Cardinals are winless at home, with an average margin of almost minus-12 points per game as hosts, and haven’t been great off a win, going 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games following a victory. Adding to that lurking letdown spot is a back injury to do-it-all RB David Johnson, who had a monster game versus the Bengals but couldn’t sit down following the win due to pain.

LOOKAHEAD SPOT: DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW YORK JETS (+7, 42.5)

The Cowboys' bandwagon has hit some rough highway in recent weeks, losing to the Saints and Packers after a 3-0 start. Dallas has a good shot of snapping that skid in East Rutherford Sunday, taking on the winless Jets.

However, America’s Team could get caught looking past lowly Gang Green and to a Week 7 Sunday Night Football showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles, who flipped their fortunes after a slow start and now sit tied with Dallas atop the NFC East.

The Jets were as big as +8.5 before starting QB Sam Darnold was cleared to play following a bout with mono. That slimmed the spread to a touchdown Tuesday afternoon. New York has been running third-stringer Luke Falk under center since backup Trevor Siemian was injured midway through Week 2’s loss to Cleveland, and has sputtered on offense ever since.

Defensively, however, New York has been competitive. Gregg Williams makes opponents pay in blood for every yard and this team has eight takeaways already on the season. The Cowboys offense has looked lost the past two outings - with fumbles and interceptions killing drives - and their focus could be on Philly in Week 7, opening up a window for fans of the lookahead spot.

SCHEDULE SPOT: CAROLINA PANTHERS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+2, 47)

The Buccaneers are technically the home team for the next installment of the NFL’s venture across the pond, getting two points in their matchup with the Panthers in London, England. But on paper, this is Tampa Bay’s third game away from home in a row, and part of a grueling stretch that keeps the Bucs out of Raymond James Stadium for 49 days (with a Week 7 bye in between).

Oakland found itself in this exact same spot (and spot bet) last week and prevailed against the Bears at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as an underdog. The Raiders traveled to England that Monday following Week 4 and spent all week acclimating to the major time difference. The trip isn’t as brutal for the East Coast Bucs, who leave Thursday, will sleep on the plane, and practice Friday. Carolina is planning to arrive a day earlier, with departure on Wednesday.

Tampa Bay has two impressive road wins already this season, at Carolina and at Los Angeles, but looked bad in a loss at New Orleans last weekend. This is also a 9:30 a.m. ET start time – unlike Week 5’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff in London – so perhaps the Panthers have the edge in time zone acclimation by arriving a day earlier.

[Udog]

Trends for this week’s NFL games:

— New England is 7-1 ATS in last eight games as a non-divisional home favorite.

— Jets are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games vs NFC teams.

— Miami covered twice of last nine games vs NFC teams.

— Bengals are 9-3 in last 12 games as a road underdog.

— Dallas is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games as a non-divisional road favorite.

— Falcons covered three of last 16 games outside their division.

[Udog]

Rain in the forecast for Giants vs Pats from Foxborough.

52* with 16-18 mph winds blowing from corner to corner

[Udog]

Syracuse at N.C. State
Joe Nelson

The ACC is back on this week’s national TV contest Thursday night as two quality teams from the ACC Coastal face off in a critical battle as Syracuse and NC State both look for a first conference win of the season.

Neither squad is on pace to match last season’s success and this closely-lined contest will go a long way towards confirming another possible bowl season for the victor.

Syracuse Orange at N.C. State Wolfpack
Venue: Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina
Time/TV: Thursday, October 10, 8:00 p.m. ET ESPN
Line: NC State -4½, Over/Under 55
Last Meeting: 2018 at Syracuse (+2) 51, NC State 41

Syracuse and NC State combined for 19 wins last season with both teams in the conversation for the second best team in the ACC behind the eventual national champions. Right now Syracuse and NC State share the basement in the ACC Coastal standings however. With matching 3-2 records both teams have reasonable bowl prospects but the loser of this game will already fall to 0-2 in ACC play.

Challenging remaining schedules are waiting as well though Syracuse already has its loss to Clemson out of the way. The Orange host Pittsburgh next week before facing Florida State ahead of a November run with no easy outs battling through four teams likely alongside these teams in the middle of the ACC picture.

Urgency may be greater for NC State with the next two games on the road albeit with an off week in-between while the home game with Clemson still remains in November.

A decline in quarterback play has been a big factor in the decreased potential of these teams. Ryan Finley had excellent numbers for the Wolfpack last season and made the roster for the Bengals as a 4th round draft pick.

For Syracuse Eric Dungey was one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the country last season when he was healthy, though current quarterback Tommy DeVito did see significant action last year as well. DeVito has adequate numbers this season with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions and after taking a hard hit in the last game he is back at practice and expected to play this week with both teams having a bye week last week.

For NC State sophomore Matthew McKay opened the season at quarterback and the numbers were solid in wins over East Carolina and Western Carolina. He struggled in the loss to West Virginia and threw his first interception in the win over Ball State.

He was replaced early in the ugly loss at Florida State to close September and sophomore Bailey Hockman came in relief. Hockman is expected to start this week’s game despite now just 50 pass attempts in his career, 40 of them which came in the Florida State game after his team had fallen behind.

Dave Doeren coached two seasons at Northern Illinois before taking over at NC State in 2013. After a mediocre first four seasons with a 9-23 ACC record, the 2017 and 2018 seasons brought matching 9-4 overall records with winning ACC campaigns as Doeren went from a potential hot seat to being targeted by other programs last winter. It looks like a very difficult road for Wolfpack to turn in another nine-win season however and a sixth straight bowl season isn’t guaranteed at this point.

Dino Babers also came to the ACC after a successful two-year MAC run, winning the 2015 MAC title with Bowling Green. After back-to-back 4-8 seasons but with the big upset over Clemson in 2017, Syracuse broke through with a 10-3 2018 season capped off by a Camping World Bowl win over West Virginia.

At the moment Babers is 21-21 at Syracuse and a second straight bowl trip could hinge on this game with six more potentially closely-lined ACC games ahead to close out the schedule after this road game.

Having played Clemson already this season gives Syracuse a massive strength of schedule edge in comparing these 3-2 teams and also in part accounts for the statistical disparities between these 3-2 teams.

NC State rates dramatically superior defensively, particularly against the run but allowing 612 yards to Clemson weighs on those figures heavily for the Orange. In NC State’s lopsided loss to Florida State they actually had a 370-369 yardage edge but a 3-0 turnover deficit.

Series History:

NC State won a pair of meetings in the late 1990s and meeting in the past six seasons as ACC Coastal foes, NC State has won four of six meetings S/U but going just 2-4 ATS.

NC State won four in a row before falling 51-41 last season at the Carrier Dome as a slight road favorite.

Last Season:

Syracuse started 4-0 last season and they were nearly 7-0 when they eventually hosted NC State in late October. At 5-2 the two losses were a 27-23 loss at Clemson in which the Orange had a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter and then a 44-37 overtime loss at Pittsburgh the following week. NC State entered the Carrier Dome at 5-1 but it was a second straight road game following a brutal 41-7 loss at Clemson that erased the 5-0 start. NC State was still in the top 25 for this matchup last October but early on it appeared clear that wouldn’t last as Syracuse led 24-7 after the first quarter. NC State rallied to get within seven by halftime and was within three in the fourth quarter before a late Orange touchdown after a Finley interception for the game’s only turnover.

Historical Trends:

Since taking over in 2016 Syracuse is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog under Babers with three outright upsets, Both ACC road upsets have come at Boston College with the Orange winning only three ACC road games in 12 tries. NC State is 28-16 S/U and 20-24 ATS at home since 2013 under Doeren. The Wolfpack are 5-10 ATS in the past 15 instances playing as a home favorite while 14-2 S/U at home since 2017.

[Udog]

TNF - Giants at Patriots
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Giants (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) saw their two-game winning streak come to a screeching halt in Sunday’s 28-10 home setback to the Vikings as 5 ½-point underdogs. New York won the first two starts made by rookie quarterback Daniel Jones against Tampa Bay and Washington, but the former Duke standout was limited to 182 yards passing, one touchdown, and one interception.

The Vikings outgained the Giants from a yardage standpoint, 490-211, which is in stark contrast to the week before in which New York outgained Washington, 389-176 in the yardage category. Obviously, Minnesota was a huge step up from Washington in competition, but the Giants never led against the Vikings as the closest they came was trailing 10-7 in the second quarter before getting outscored 18-7 the rest of the way.

New York continues to play without running back Saquon Barkley, who missed his second consecutive game with a high ankle sprain. Barkley is likely out one again on Thursday night, as his presence his sorely missed after New York’s running game was limited to 64 yards on 20 carries against Minnesota. The Giants cashed the ‘under’ at home for the third time in three tries this season, while dropping to 5-14 in the past 19 games at Met Life Stadium dating back to 2017.

The Patriots (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) are the only undefeated team left in the AFC after blowing out the Redskins, 33-7 to cash as 15 ½-point road favorites. New England improved to 2-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, while limiting its fifth straight opponent to 14 points or fewer. The Patriots’ defense continues to excel by giving up a grand total of two offensive touchdowns, as Steven Sims, Jr. broke off a 65-yard touchdown run for Washington before New England scored 33 unanswered points.

Tom Brady rebounded from a tough performance in Week 4 against Buffalo to torch Washington’s porous defense for 348 yards and three touchdowns, while Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman hauled in eight receptions for 110 yards and a score. Running back Sony Michel put together his best game of the season by compiling 91 yards on 16 carries, including his third touchdown of 2019.

New England has jumped out to a 3-0 road record this season, which is a much better start than in its Super Bowl winning campaign of 2018. The Patriots didn’t record their third road victory last season until Week 12 against the Jets, as New England has started 3-0 away from Gillette Stadium for the fourth time in the last five seasons.

HOME/ROAD SPLITS

The Patriots are riding an 18-game winning streak at Gillette Stadium dating back to 2017 with the last loss in Foxboro coming to the Panthers in Week 4 of that season. New England has posted a 14-4 ATS record during this span, which includes a 6-2 ATS mark when laying double-digits at home. One of those two losses when listed as a favorite of 10 points or more came in Week 3 against the Jets as 20 ½-point chalk in a 30-14 victory.

The Giants have fared well on the road against the number since Week 3 of 2018 by covering in eight of the last nine opportunities. The only ATS loss in this span came in the season opener to Dallas, while the Giants cashed in their previous away contest at Tampa Bay in Week 3 in the 32-31 comeback victory. The last time the Giants won outright as a double-digit road underdog came in 2017 as 13 ½-point ‘dogs in a 23-10 upset of Denver.

SERIES HISTORY

Not many people remember the recent regular season meetings between the Patriots and Giants, only the two Super Bowl matchups won by New York. The most memorable game played by these two teams came in Super Bowl XLII when the Giants stunned the undefeated Patriots, 17-14 as 12 ½-point underdogs. New York turned the trick again four years later in Super Bowl XLVI by rallying from a 17-9 deficit to knock off New England, 21-17 as three-point ‘dogs.

The Giants have covered the last five meetings in this series dating back to 2007, when they coincidentally hooked up in the final regular season game before doing battle in the Super Bowl. New England edged New York, 27-26 as seven-point road favorites in 2015 at Met Life Stadium in the most recent matchup. The Pats erased a 20-10 deficit, capped off by a Stephen Gostkowski 54-yard field goal with one second remaining, as Brady threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns in the win.

TOTAL TALK

The ‘over’ has cashed in back-to-back weeks on Thursday but the oddsmakers aren’t expecting many points for this matchup. Chris David of VegasInsider.com provides his thoughts and lean on this week’s total.

“Based on what we’ve seen from the Patriots and their defense, it’s hard to imagine the Giants doing much offensively in this spot. New England has watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 and it should be 5-0 if it wasn’t for two defensive scores allowed in their 30-14 home win over Jets in Week 3. The Giants did receive a bit of a spark from rookie Jones in his first two appearances but he was humbled last Sunday at home versus the Vikings,” said David.

“Expecting Jones and the Giants offense to improve on a short week in a hostile environment seems like a reach, plus New York is still banged-up with key injuries. The team total on New York is listed at 13 ½ and knowing New England hasn’t allowed an offense to eclipse that number in five games, going ‘under’ on the Giants would be my lean here.”

Laying double digits will be a common theme for New England this season and the club has developed a strong ‘under’ trend in these angles. Going back to last season, the Patriots are on a 6-1 ‘under’ run when listed as a double-digit favorite and that includes a 2-1 mark this season. Make a note that the ‘under’ is 10-0 in its last 10 road games when laying 10-plus points and we’ll likely see two spots left this season at the Jets and Bengals.

STARTING FAST (AND SLOW)

The Patriots have dominated defensively this season by allowing only two offensive touchdowns (both rushing), but New England has jumped out quickly by posting a 4-1 ATS record on first half bets. The only loss came to Washington as the Patriots led the Redskins, 12-7 at halftime laying 10 points. Meanwhile, the Giants have slumped to a 1-4 ATS mark in the first half this season, while trailing by double-digits in all four of those defeats. Coincidentally the biggest deficit the Giants have fallen into at halftime this season (18 points at Tampa Bay), New York actually came back to win in Jones’ first start.

THURSDAY NIGHT DOG SPECIAL

The underdogs have ruled on Thursdays this season in the NFL by putting together a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS mark. The only favorite to win a Thursday contest in 2019 was the Seahawks last week in a slim 30-29 victory after the Rams missed the game-winning field goal in the final seconds. Los Angeles cashed as 1 ½-point underdogs to mark the fifth consecutive cover by ‘dogs in Thursday night affairs, as the biggest ‘dog to cover was Tampa Bay in Week 2 getting 6 ½ points in a 20-14 triumph at Carolina.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in this week looking at the easy road so far for New England, “The schedule rates as the weakest in the league facing teams that are a combined 5-18 and four of those wins come from the Bills. New England won 16-10 in Buffalo, but in many ways they did not look like the superior team in that contest, out-gained 375-224, but getting a 4-1 turnover edge and a touchdown on a blocked punt.”

“The Patriots face losing teams the next three weeks before a Week 9 game at Baltimore and the league may not find out how good the Patriots actually are until late in the season when they draw Philadelphia, Dallas, Houston, and Kansas City in succession,” Nelson notes.

The Giants could make history from a ‘dog standpoint in primetime according to Nelson, “This week’s game could feature the largest underdog spread in Thursday NFL history with +16 for the Rams at Seattle in 2016 the highest instance in our data. Since 1985, seven Thursday NFL teams have been dogged by 14 or more points and they have gone 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS.”

New England owns great marks on Thursday and as a two-touchdown favorite or more under Bill Belichick, “Since taking over the Patriots in 2000, Belichick is 12-3 SU and 8-5-2 ATS on Thursdays including winning 38-24 at -10 hosting the Colts last season. New England is just 4-4-2 ATS at home on Thursdays in that span, however. The Patriots are 28-0 SU and 17-11 ATS as a favorite of 14 or more points under Belichick, including going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 instances,” Nelson says.

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions – Daniel Jones (NYG)
Over 20 ½ (-110)
Under 20 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Daniel Jones (NYG)
Over 1 ½ (+190)
Under 1 ½ (-240)

Will the Giants have a rushing touchdown?
Yes +180
No -220

Will the Giants ever have the lead?
Yes +220
No -270

Total Gross Passing Yards – Tom Brady (NE)
Over 265 ½ (-110)
Under 265 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Tom Brady (NE)
Over 2 (-110)
Under 2 (-110)

Total Rushing Yards – Sony Michel (NE)
Over 74 ½ (-110)
Under 74 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Josh Gordon (NE)
Over 59 ½ (-110)
Under 59 ½ (-110)

Will Julian Edelman (NE) score a touchdown?
Yes +120
No -140

LINE MOVEMENT/WEATHER

The weather will not be pretty on Thursday night with rain in the forecast all day and night. Temperatures are in the low 50’s and there will be a steady wind at 18 miles per hour at kickoff.

When CG Technologies released their weekly odds in June for every game in the NFL season (for the exception of Week 17), the Patriots were listed as an 11-point favorite against the Giants. Fast-forward to now and New England is listed as a 17-point favorite at CG Technologies. The total has dipped to 41 ½, from 44 ½ due to impending rain hitting the area.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


WHAT’S WORSE THAN A TOILET BOWL?

As Jason Logan says, the matchup between the winless Miami Dolphins and Washington Redskins isn’t so much a Toilet Bowl as an “ill-timed poop in the woods.” You may have to explain to your significant other why you are watching such poorly played NFL football on Sunday. Your answer to that should be: for the value! We have a play for you on this Canadian Thanksgiving Weekend treat.

Dolphins quarterback Josh Rosen put together two non-disastrous starts before his Week 5 bye. The Team only put up 16 points but did manage to score their first offensive touchdown this year. Getting most of Rosen’s attention is receiver Preston Williams who has 19 targets for eight grabs and 114 yards in his last two games. Look for Preston to go Over his receiving total of 54.5 yards as Washington is allowing 78 yards a game to team’s No.2 WR.


HOOPER TROOPERS

Falcons’ No. 1 receiver Julio Jones did not practice yesterday and is coming off back-to-back scoreless weeks where the All-Pro didn’t top 55 yards in either of those games. Picking up the slack is Austin Hooper who is fantasy’s No. 1 tight end and averaging 7.5 grabs for 93 yards over that same two-game stretch.

It just so happens that the league’s hottest TE is running up against the league’s worst defensive team to TEs as the Falcons play the Cardinals. Hooper’s totals will be very sharp as many prop bettors, ourselves included, have been religiously fading Arizona to TEs, but this is a matchup Hooper can win, especially if Jones’ injury slows him down.

Take Hooper’s reception total of 4.5 and hit the Over as the ATL TE has cleared that mark four times this year and the Cards have also the Over four times.


RUSSELL FLEXIN’

Russell Wilson has the second-lowest odds to win the MVP behind only Patrick Mahomes. Wilson has thrown the ball over 29 times just twice this year but has still tossed 12 TDs, zero INTs and is completing 73 percent of his passes.

With the Browns showing the world how well they can stop the run, look for the Seattle Seahawks to lean on the ground game versus the Browns who are surrendering 6.5 yards per carry over their last three games.

Take Wilson’s Under 30.5 pass attempts and if you are looking for another play, jump on the Over 1.5 passing TDs.


HOUSE OF CARDS

Since 2017, the Atlanta Falcons are 5-16-1 ATS on the road but you can argue that there are a lot of factors in this trend that aren’t specific to the same Falcons team that is heading to Arizona to face the Cardinals in Week 6. What we do know about this current team is that they are allowing a disproportionate 141.1 QB rating to opposing signal-callers over their last three weeks.

Sure, Deshaun Watson’s 426 yards and perfect QB rating skew that number, but the dirty birds still allowed Marcus Mariota and Jacoby Brissett to complete 72 percent of their passes for five TDs and zero interceptions in Weeks 3 and 4. Also not helping the Falcons’ cause is that they are pacing the league in points allowed on the road at 36.

After putting up 26 points versus the Cincinnati Bengals’ 30th-ranked DVOA pass defense, Kyler Murray and the Cards will get to tee off on the Falcons’ equally terrible 29th-ranked DVOA passing defense. Arizona gained a season-high 514 yards of offense last week in their first win as Murray has really figured out his rushing game lately rushing for 189 yards and two scores over his last three. Kliff Kingsbury is finding this offense’s identity which will help in exposing Atlanta’s defensive road struggles on Sunday, even if David Johnson sits.

Wait to take the Over on Arizona’s team total closer to kickoff. The total may drop from 24.5 if David Johnson doesn’t suit up and won’t likely increase if he is active.

[Udog]

Trends for this week’s NFL games:

— Jets are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games vs NFC teams.

— Miami covered twice of last nine games vs NFC teams.

— Bengals are 9-3 in last 12 games as a road underdog.

— Dallas is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games as a non-divisional road favorite.

— Falcons covered three of last 16 games outside their division.

[Udog]

NFL Week 6 odds movers and shakers: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

New York quarterback Sam Darnold returns this week, which makes a big difference in the line. Without Darnold, the Jets would be nearly two-touchdown home 'dogs to Dallas, but instead are +7.

NFL Week 13 has a dozen Sunday games and a Monday nighter on the somewhat semi-frozen tundra. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

INJURY IMPACT

NEW YORK JETS: This week’s big mover isn’t due to someone who’s out, but rather someone who’s back in. After a monthlong bout with mononucleosis, quarterback Sam Darnold returns to lead New York at home against Dallas. “Without Darnold, this game would be Cowboys favored by 13.5 or 14, seeing as Luke Falk is third string for the Jets,” Osterman said. “With Darnold, we opened at Cowboys -7.5, and we’re now down to -7. Darnold is one of the biggest movers of a line, because of who is behind him.”

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Running back Alvin Kamara (ankle) is questionable for Sunday’s game at Jacksonville. “With the Kamara news, we moved the line a half-point,” Osterman said of a Friday afternoon adjustment from Saints +2 to +2.5. “If he doesn’t play, then I wouldn’t be surprised if it moved another half-point. He’s very important to their offense right now.”

LOS ANGELES RAMS: Running back Todd Gurley is doubtful to play in an NFC West clash against Seattle, as he deals with a quadriceps injury. “He’s worth a half-point,” Osterman said. Anticipating the Gurley news, The SuperBook moved the Rams from -3.5 to -3 on Wednesday.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: QB Patrick Mahomes’ ankle is apparently fine, but wideouts Tyreek Hill (shoulder) and Sammy Watkins (hamstring) – who both missed last week’s home loss to the Colts – are questionable this week at home against the Texans. The Chiefs are down to -4, after opening -8 pre-Indy loss. “Our Chiefs line had Hill out and Watkins in built into it. If Watkins is out, that wouldn’t have much effect on the line. But if Hill plays, that would move the line a half-point.”

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Mason Rudolph (concussion) is out, meaning third-string QB Devlin Hodges gets his first NFL start, with Pittsburgh +7 at the Chargers on Sunday night. “We expected Rudolph not to play, so the line is already without Rudolph. The difference between Rudolph and Hodges is about 3 points.”


WEATHER WATCH

SEATTLE AT CLEVELAND: The breeze will blow out of the southwest at 17 mph, with gusts to 23 mph. The total opened at 47, reached 47.5, then dipped to 46 Friday before ticking to 46.5. “The total has come down a little bit. Wind can really affect the kicking game.”

DALLAS AT N.Y. JETS: There’s a better-than-50-percent chance of precipitation for this 4:25 p.m. ET kick at MetLife Stadium. But that hasn’t altered any numbers yet at The SuperBook. “We’re waiting to get more of an accurate forecast Saturday.” The Cowboys are -7, with a total of 44.5.

DETROIT AT GREEN BAY: The Monday nighter could be the chilliest game of the year so far, with temperatures in the low-40s/high-30s. The SuperBook opened the total at 46.5 and it peaked at 47.5, then returned to the opening number. “But temperature alone usually doesn’t have too much effect on the total, especially in places such as Green Bay, where low temps are expected.” The Packers are at -4.


PROS VS. JOES

SEATTLE AT CLEVELAND: The line flipped from Cleveland -2 to Seattle -1.5, then ticked to Seattle -1. “This is a classic overreaction from Monday night, when the Browns looked bad” at San Francisco. “Pros are on Cleveland, the public is all over the Seahawks, in a spot where the Browns would probably be a small favorite had they not been blown out on Monday.”

NEW ORLEANS AT JACKSONVILLE: This game opened at pick and moved to Jaguars -1.5 by Tuesday, and as noted above, the Jags got to -2.5 Friday on the Kamara news. “Pros are on the Jags, the public loves the Saints.”


REVERSE LINE MOVES

NEW ORLEANS AT JACKSONVILLE: Along with this matchup pitting Pros vs. Joes, it falls into this category, as well. “The line opened pick, and we’re now at Jags -2.5, even though we’ve taken more money on the Saints.” The aforementioned Kamara injury factors into that line, as well.

CAROLINA VS. TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay opened +1.5, the line quickly got to pick, then trended back toward Carolina, with the Panthers now -2.5. “We haven’t taken much on that game in general, but we have taken a little bit more on the Bucs, even though the market is going the Panthers’ way.”

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 6
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Vikings are 10-0-1 since Dec 11, 2005 coming off a road game that did not end in a tie where they had a player with at least 125 receiving yards.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-11-1 ATS (-9.04 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 as a dog of more than three points coming off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 22 first downs.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- Teams are 0-7 OU (-6.00 ppg) since Nov 23, 2017 coming off a road game where Kirk Cousins threw at least two touchdowns.


SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Games since 1998 with a total of 41+ when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in their last game are 29-11 OU. Active on Washington/Miami


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Steelers are 0-14 OU (-8.23 ppg) since Oct 01, 2015 coming off a game where they threw for less than 215 yards.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The 49ers are 14-0 OU (10.04 ppg) since Dec 16, 2012 on the road coming off a home game where they rushed for at least 130 yards.


NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Broncos are 10-0 ATS (+14.30 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick after a win as a road dog.

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 6
Joe Williams

We head into the meat of the Week 6 schedule and the action started Thursday as the Giants-Patriots (43) game went 'over' for the third consecutive mid-week matchup. Even though the pair combined for 49 points, the 'over' was helped with three defensive and special teams scores. On a side note, the Patriots offense has just as many touchdowns (3) as the defense has this season. Including New England's victory over New York, winning teams are averaging 33 points per game over the past three Thursday night games, with the losing side is posting 20 PPG.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 5 8-7 6-9 8-6-1
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 36-42 31-46-1 39-37-2

The books had another strong performance in Week 5, helped out in part by the result of the Chicago Bears-Oakland Raiders game in England. The total inched 'over' in that one, too. We'll touch more on the International Series below.

Division Bell

The four division battles saw the over connect in three of the outings in Week 5. The Ravens-Steelers game was helped out by the fact the contest was decided in overtime, but it was a rather miraculous result since undrafted free-agent quarterback Devlin Hodges played a majority of the game for Pittsburgh in place of injured QB Mason Rudolph, who is 'out' for Week 6, by the way. Hodges is the third-string QB for the injury-depleted Steelers.

Divisional Game Results Week 5
L.A. Rams at Seattle Over (48.5) Seattle 30, L.A. Rams 29
Baltimore at Pittsburgh Over (44) Baltimore 26, Piittsburgh 23 (OT)
Tampa Bay at New Orleans Over (46.5) New Orleans 31, Tampa Bay 24
Denver at L.A. Chargers Under (45.5) Denver 20, L.A. Chargers 13

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 6 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Atlanta at Arizona: 47 to 51 ½
San Francisco at L.A. Rams: 48 to 50 ½
Pittsburgh at L.A. Chargers: 43 ½ to 41 ½
Carolina at Tampa Bay (London): 46 to 47 ½
Houston at Kansas City: 54 to 55
Washington at Miami: 41 to 42

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 6 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Dallas at N.Y. Jets: Over 92%
Atlanta at Arizona: Over 87%
San Francisco at L.A. Rams: Over 81%
New Orleans at Jacksonville: Under 75%
Houston at Kansas City: Over 67%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (66 percent) in the Washington-Miami matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Pittsburgh-L.A. Chargers (65 percent) battle on Sunday.

Handicapping Week 6

Week 5 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 3-1
NFC vs. NFC 1-1
AFC vs. AFC 0-2
AFC vs. NFC 4-3

London Totals

Week 6 will kick off with a divisonal battle at Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium in London featuring the second Carolina-Tampa Bay matchup of the season. The first time these teams met, the Bucs won 20-14 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, which was also the last time we saw QB Cam Newton (foot). It was also the last time we saw the Panthers take a loss, as they have won three in a row under QB Kyle Allen.

This will be the first division battle overseas since the Rams blanked the Cardinals in Week 7 of the 2017 season, a game which went 'under'. We have had 25 regular-season games played in London since the start of the NFL International Series back in 2007, but only three divisional matchups. The 'under' is 2-1 in those games. Will the Bucs and Panthers follow suit with a line of 47.5? The under is 4-1 in Carolina's past five against divisional foes, while going 5-2 in Tampa's past seven against teams with a winning record.

London Results - Past Eight Games
Week 5 - 2019 - Chicago vs. Oakland Over (40) Oakland 24, Chicago 21
Week 7 - 2018 - Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville Under (44.5) Philadelphia 24, Jacksonville 18
Week 6 - 2018 - Tennessee vs. L.A. Chargers Under (46) L.A. Chargers 20, Tennessee 19
Week 5 - 2018 - Seattle vs. Oakland Under (48) Seattle 27, Oakland 3
Week 8 - 2017 - Minnesota vs. Cleveland Over (38.5) Minnesota 33, Cleveland 16
Week 7 - 2017 - Arizona vs. L.A. Rams Under (45.5) L.A. Rams 33, Arizona 0
Week 4 - 2017 - New Orleans vs. Miami Under (51.5) New Orleans 20, Miami 0
Week 3 - 2017 - Baltimore vs. Jacksonville Over (38.5) Jacksonville 44, Baltimore 7

Other Week 6 Action

Houston at Kansas City: We saw QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle) aggravate his ankle injury last Sunday night, and that really played a factor in his mobility and effectiveness. The Chiefs were tripped up at home 19-13 by the visiting Colts, and the 'under' connected. Vegas isn't expecting his ankle to be an issue, as they have set the total in the mid-50's, the highest total of the weekend slate. It's something to watch, not only this week, but in the following weeks, as the 'under' could be a sneaky play in Kansas City games due to inflated totals. Make a note that while Houston has been a great 'under' team at home, the 'over' is on a 4-1 run in its last five road games and the offense is averaging 27.4 PPG in those games.

Philadelphia at Minnesota: The Eagles hit the road for the third time this season. They have averaged 27 PPG away from home, while allowing 25.5 PPG. For the Vikings, they're averaging 31 PPG in their two home games at U.S. Bank Stadium, while yielding just 13 PPG. Due to the defensive effort of the Vikings at home, the total is set at a rather low 44, but the Eagles are not the struggling Falcons or inconsistent Raiders offensively. The last time Philadelphia played at this venue, it put on an offensive show as it defeated New England 41-33 in Super Bowl 52.

Seattle at Cleveland: The last time these teams met resulted in a 30-13 win by the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. While the Browns were expected to be different, they have really struggled to jell offensively. Outside of a 40-point outburst against the Ravens in Week 4, the Browns offense has been rather moribund, posting 13, 23, 13 and 3. The 'under' has hit in three of the past four as a result. Seattle has had no such struggles on offense, going for 21 or more points in each outing, and 27 or more in each of the past four. They're averaging 27.5 PPG in two road games to date.

Washington at Miami: In the 'Tank Bowl', the winless Redskins and winless Dolphins square off at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. I'm actually anticipating this game rather heavily to see exactly how good, or how bad, the tanking is. This will be the first game for Washington under interim head coach Bill Callahan, who is going back to Case Keenum as his QB. When healthy, Keenum has moved the offense, posting 21 PPG in the first three games before flaming out in Week 4 against the Giants before getting pulled. The 'over' went 3-0 in his first three starts, however. The defense has yielded 24 or more points in every game, so we might see Miami's highest output of the season.The Dolphins are dead-last in total yards allowed (472.0), rushing yards (175.8) and points per game (40.8), while checking in 31st in passing yards (296.2) allowed. For second-half total bettors, Miami hasn't scored in the final 30 minutes in any of its games this season.

Atlanta at Arizona: The Falcons have been hard to figure out this season, as they 1-4 SU with some varying results offensively. They were worked over 28-12 in Week 1 on the road, failing to score until the fourth quarter. In the past two road games they have averaged 28 PPG while allowing a total of 80 points, and they're giving up 20 or more points in all five contests to date. A lack of defense has been the only consistent thing about the Falcons, so perhaps rookie QB Kyler Murray and the Cardinals will get the offense rolling. In three home games Arizona is averaging 19 PPG while coughing up 27 or more points in all three games, or an average of 30.7 PPG.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with spreads of six or more points for Week 6, with one home team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 41 ½ to 48 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. ET): The Bengals are on the short end of a double-digit spread in Charm City. They have really struggled offensively, helped in large part due to injury problems along the offensive line. The fact wide receiver A.J. Green has been sidelined all season hasn't helped, either. Cincinnati is averaging just 16 PPG, ranking 29th in the NFL, while posting just 319.2 total yards per game to check in 26th. The defense isn't much better, ranking 30th with 411.8 total yards allowed, and they've been gouged for 167.6 rushing yards per contest to rank 31st. That's bad news when prepping for dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. The over is 7-3-1 in the past 11 for Cincinnati inside the division, while going a perfect 4-0 in Baltimore's past four divisional battles.

Dallas at N.Y. Jets (4:25 p.m. ET): The Jets get their starting QB Sam Darnold (illness) back this week, as he looks to give the Jets an injection of offense. He posted 16 points in his first and only appearance this season, and that was a seaso-nhigh in production for New York. They're averaging just 7.7 PPG over the past three games under the leadership of QBs Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk. The defense is perhaps the bigger concern, allowing 28 PPG over the past three outings. The Cowboys have slacked off over the past two games, averaging just 17 PPG across the past two games, both losses. They opened with three straight wins, posting 35, 31 and 31 points. Look for the Cowboys to get back to that type of production in a stadium they're very familiar, MetLife Stadium, since they face the Giants here once per season. The 'over' is also 2-1 in they're three games against losing teams, including 1-0 in their road game in such situation.

Pittsburgh at L.A. Chargers (8:20 p.m. ET): The Chargers are favored by 6 ½, and Vegas is expecting a rather low-scoring game on Sunday Night Football. For those tracking Sunday Night Football, we haven't seen an over ticket yet this season...going a perfect 6-0. With the UDFA QB Hodges making a start for the Steelers, expectations aren't terribly high that we're going to see a track meet. The 'under' is 37-15 in Pittsburgh's past 52 road outings, while going 16-5 in the past 21 on the road against teams with a losing home mark. The under is 4-1 in the past five at home for the Bolts, while going 21-8 in the past 29 vs. AFC teams.

Under the Lights

Detroit at Green Bay (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Monday Night Football game this week will have the rested Lions, coming off of their bye, facing the red-hot Packers, coming off a 34-24 win at Dallas to show they're still a power in the NFC. The Lions could easily be 4-0 at this point, if not for a Week 1 meltdown late, settling for a tie on the road against the Cardinals. They also had some late-game issues in the Week 4 battle against the Chiefs, falling 34-30. The 'over' has connected in three of their four games to date, posting 27 or more points offensively in each of those games. The outlier is a 13-10 win over the Chargers in Week 2. It was an outlier defensively, too, as they have given up at least 24 points in three of their four contests.

The Packers struggled offensively in a divisional battle to open the season, winning 10-3 in Chicago. They also saw the 'under' cash in Week 2, another divisional battle and win against the Vikings. However, they're averaging 29.3 PPG over the past three outings while yielding 24.8 PPG, seeing the 'over' hit in each of those three. The last time these teams met in Lambeau Field was Dec. 30, 2018, but the Packers rested an ailing QB Aaron Rodgers, so the Lions 31-0 win and 'under' result can mostly be discounted. They met Oct. 7 last season, with the Lions winning 31-21 in an 'over', and that is a little more of what to expect.

While it's still early, be aware that teams off the 'bye' this season have watched the 'under' go 2-0 in their games with the 49ers and Jets going low last week. As mentioned above, Detroit will be playing with rest and Miami will as well.