NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thur., Oct. 3 - Mon., Oct. 7)

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 5
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Buccaneers at Saints (-3, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
Tampa Bay (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) is winless in two home games this season, but the Buccaneers have excelled on the road by beating the Panthers and Rams in the underdog role. In Week 4’s most unexpected result, nobody predicted the Bucs would drop 55 points on defending NFC champion Los Angeles in a 55-40 upset as nine-point underdogs. Jameis Winston posted 385 yards and four touchdown passes for the Bucs, who have covered five consecutive games as an underdog since Week 15 of 2018.

For the first time since Teddy Bridgewater has taken over as starting quarterback for the injured Drew Brees, the Saints (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) are listed in the favorite role on Sunday. Bridgewater led the Saints past the Seahawks as a road underdog in Week 3, followed by a 12-10 triumph as 2 ½-point home underdog to hand the Cowboys their first loss of the season. The Saints are laying points for the first time since a Week 1 last-second win over the Texans, but New Orleans is riding an 0-5 ATS run (including the playoffs) since Week 15 of 2018 as a favorite.

The road team captured each of the two matchups last season, as the Buccaneers outlasted the Saints, 48-40 as 10-point underdogs in the 2018 opener. Both Brees and Bucs’ quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick each eclipsed the 400-yard passing mark in that shootout, but the Saints got the better of Tampa Bay in the second meeting at Raymond James Stadium, 28-14 as 10-point favorites. The Bucs own a 3-2 ATS mark in the last five trips to the Superdome, but all three covers came as a touchdown underdog or higher.

Best Bet: Saints 24, Buccaneers 20

Bills at Titans (-2 ½, 39 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
Although it’s only Week 5, this is a pivotal game in the AFC playoff race as a Buffalo (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) would help solidify the Bills as a Wild Card contender. The Bills started 3-0 prior to suffering their first loss of the season last Sunday, 16-10 to the Patriots. Buffalo fell to 3-29 in the past 32 meetings with New England, but managed a cover as seven-point underdogs. The Bills outgained the Patriots by 151 yards, but scored only one touchdown as Buffalo has amassed more yardage than its opponents in all four games.

The Titans (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) rebounded from consecutive divisional losses to the Colts and Jaguars to knock off the Falcons, 24-10 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. Tennessee jumped out to a 24-7 halftime lead and cruised to its second win this season in the ‘dog role led by Marcus Mariota’s three touchdown passes. The only issue for the Titans this season is succeeding in the favorite situation as Tennessee is 0-2 SU/ATS when laying points.

Buffalo squeezed past Tennessee last season, 13-12 as six-point home underdogs, marking the third consecutive meeting since 2012 that has been decided by exactly one point. The Bills are leaving the state of New York for the first time this season, as Buffalo tries to improve on a 6-3 ATS record in its past nine road contests.

Best Bet: Titans 17, Bills 14

Packers at Cowboys (-3 ½, 47) – 4:25 PM EST
Both these NFC squads dropped their first game of the season last week as each of these teams seek a 4-1 start. Green Bay’s (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) offense finally woke up, notably quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who threw for a season-high 422 yards after not posting more than 235 yards in any of the first three wins. However, Rodgers was intercepted on the final drive in the red zone as the Packers lost to the Eagles, 34-27 as 3 ½-point favorites. Now, Green Bay is flipped to a road underdog, as the Packers are 2-9 SU and 3-7-1 ATS the past nine games away from Lambeau Field.

The Cowboys (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) took care of the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins in each of the first three weeks, while scoring at least 31 points in each of those victories. Dallas didn’t allow a touchdown in last week’s game at New Orleans, but the Saints did enough to edge the Cowboys, 12-10. Heading into the fourth quarter, the Cowboys led, 10-9 before a short Wil Lutz field goal put the Saints ahead for good to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs. Dak Prescott threw nine touchdown passes in the first three games, but didn’t reach the end zone, while Ezekiel Elliott was held to his lowest rushing output of the season with 35 yards.

Dallas responded well off a loss in 2018 by going 5-1 SU, but covered only twice in those six opportunities. The Packers have owned the Cowboys over the last decade by winning seven of the last eight meetings since 2009, as Green Bay is 3-0 in Arlington in this stretch. The three wins have come by 1, 3, and 4 points, capped off by a 35-31 victory as 2 ½-point underdogs in 2017 as Green Bay erased a 21-6 deficit by scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute.

Best Bet: Packers 28, Cowboys 24

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 40 ½ - Bears vs. Raiders
Chicago and Oakland hook up at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London for the first overseas game of the season. The Raiders are coming off an impressive road victory over the Colts last week, 31-24, but Oakland has struggled to score points following a win since Jon Gruden returned as head coach. Oakland is 0-5 off a win since 2018, while scoring 10, 3, 16, 17, and 10 points in those games. Oh, and throw in the fact that All-Pro linebacker Khalil Mack is facing his former team for the first time since the Raiders dealt him to the Bears prior to last season. The Bears have allowed no more than 15 points in a game this season and even though they turn to backup quarterback Chase Daniel, Chicago may win this game and not even reach 21 points.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Broncos still haven’t won a game yet this season as they sit at 0-4. Tow of those losses came on a last-second field goal at home to the Bears and Jaguars, while squandering a 17-3 lead in last week’s two-point defeat to Jacksonville. Denver heads to Los Angeles to face the Chargers, who are coming off their second win of the season. The Chargers opened up as 6 ½-point favorites, but that number has dropped to 5 ½ at the Westgate Superbook. Denver rallied past Los Angeles last season, 23-22, as the Chargers own a 2-6-1 ATS mark in their last nine home contests.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

Both the Bengals and Cardinals have yet to win a game this season as the two teams hook up at Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati opened up as a 4 ½-point favorite at the Westgate Superbook, but the Bengals have dropped to a three-point favorite. The Bengals’ offense has gone backwards from a yardage perspective each week, while tallying only 175 yards in last Monday’s 27-3 drubbing by Pittsburgh. Cincinnati has won only one of its last 12 games dating back to last season, while Arizona seeks its second road cover of the season.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Falcons have struggled in the role of a road underdog the last few seasons by accumulating a dreadful 1-8 SU/ATS mark. The only victory came at Washington in 2018 as a measly one-point ‘dog, while Atlanta is 0-2 ATS when receiving points on the road this season in defeats at Minnesota and Indianapolis. The last time the Falcons won outright as a road underdog of four points or more came at Oakland in Week 2 of the 2016 season. Atlanta is facing its third consecutive AFC South opponent, as the Falcons try to end their interconference hex by going 1-12 in their last 13 matchups with AFC foes.

[Udog]

Trends to Watch - October
Marc Lawrence

HOME TEAMS

Good: Pittsburgh 39-17 ATS
The Steelers have played fantastic at home in October over the years. This year will prevent more of a challenge without the three B's especially with no Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh will start the month with Baltimore (10/6)and end it with Miami (10/28).

Keep an eye on (Bad): 3-Teams
Cincinnati 21-31 ATS
Jacksonville 14-26 ATS
Seattle 18-28 ATS

Though Cincinnati could be ready for more struggles facing Arizona (10/6) and Jacksonville two weeks later, at least this gives the Bengals a shot at improvement. Speaking of the Jaguars, besides a trip to the Queen City, they will try and better there dismal record at home against the spread. Playing the New York Jets at the end of the month will help (10/27) but not sure facing New Orleans (10/13) will.

It is stunning to think Seattle is in this list given their history. The Seahawks will have a severe test on the first Thursday of the month against the L.A. Rams and on the 20th vs. Ravens.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good):3-Teams
Carolina 29-19 ATS
New England 34-20 ATS
N.Y. Giants 32-18 ATS

Carolina has been road warriors for years and making backers excellent money. Whether Cam Newton will be wearing his babushka for their lone road to San Francisco (10/27) is unknown, but what is known the Panthers will have a shot at covering.

The Patriots doing this good shocks nobody and anyone making NFL picks will surely be looking for New England versus Washington (10/6) and 15 days later in New Jersey when they take on the Jets.

The Giants and their brand new quarterback will take their outstanding away record to face Tom Brady and the fella's on Thursday, Oct. 10 and to Detroit on the 27th.

Keep an eye on (Bad): 3-Teams
Arizona 16-30 ATS
Cincinnati 18-29 ATS
Tampa Bay 18-29 ATS

To say Arizona doesn't travel well is like saying the Miami Dolphins could be in for a long season. The trip to Cincy (10/6) might not be too bad given the Bengals home record (see above). Trips to the Giants (10/20) and New Orleans (10/27) might not go as easy.

By now you have noticed the pattern, you bet against the Bengals home and away this month. They will be at division rival Baltimore on the second Sunday of the month and be officially the road team in London vs. the Rams on the 27th.

On the first and last Sunday of this month, Tampa Bay will seek to better their lousy road record in the bayou and in the Music City.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): L.A. Rams 23-13 ATS - Cleveland 11-6 ATS
The Rams have shown no hangover from losing the Super Bowl and they should be favored in all four of their October assignments.

With trips Frisco and Foxborough, Cleveland will not be favored there, however, they will likely be short favorites when Seattle pays a visit on the 13th.

Bad: Cincinnati 14-28 ATS - Jacksonville 11-23 ATS
Our negative theme on the Bengals continues, this time as favorites. They will be favored against Arizona (10/6) and possibly versus Jacksonville (10/20).

As bad as Cincinnati is, the Jaguars have been even worse handing out points this month. Their game with Cincy will be determined by the odds, however, the Jags will be favorites against Gang Green (10/27) at home.

Keep an eye on (Bad): 5-Teams
Detroit 14-25 ATS
Seattle 17-31 ATS
Tampa Bay 16-30 ATS
Carolina 18-27 ATS
Denver 16-26 ATS

There is a remote chance the Detroit could be a smallish favorite when the Vikings (10/20) visit, but for sure Matt Stafford and the Lions will be favored the following week vs. the Giants.

Hard to say where Seattle will fall here. After taking on the Rams as underdogs, the rest of the month has them at Cleveland, Baltimore and at Atlanta. Keep a watchful eye.

Tampa Bay is unlikely to be favored at all.

The Panthers figure to be smaller favorites against Jacksonville (10/6) in Charlotte and a week later in London when facing NFC South rival Tampa Bay.

Just one shot for the Broncos to be viewed positively by the sportsbooks and that will against Tennessee (10/13).

UNDERDOGS

Good: Pittsburgh 25-10 ATS - Carolina 33-16 ATS
Pittsburgh's fantastic record could be in jeopardy, without the same teams of the past against the Ravens at home and the L.A. Chargers.

Just one such expected role for the Panthers and that will be in Santa Clara vs. the Niners (10/27).

Keep an eye on (Good):N.Y. Giants 26-17 ATS - New Orleans 26-17 ATS
Let's see how the G-Men fair on the receiving end of points three times in October. The first will be against the Vikes on the first Sunday of the month at home. Next is only four days later at the Brady bunch and in the Motor City on the 27th.

At this time, the New Orleans listed as an underdog at Jacksonville (10/13) is a bit iffy, but they will catch a few points in the Windy City (10/20).

Bad: San Francisco 14-31 ATS
If the 49ers keep playing as they did in September, the only chance they will be underdogs in October is at the Rams on the 13th.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Cincinnati 27-41 ATS
There would seem a good chance oddsmakers will list Bengals as dogs the rest of the month after playing the Cardinals on the 6th.

DIVISION

Good: Pittsburgh 28-14 ATS - N.Y. Jets 28-14 ATS
Pittsburgh will seek to better AFC North record against the hated Ravens (10/6).

Despite their record, not sure the Flyboys will appear all the appealing on the third Monday of the month when New England visits the Meadowlands area.

Bad: Cincinnati 13-31 ATS
One last chance to poke fun of Cincinnati and they of course will be underdogs to Baltimore on what figures to an unlucky Oct. 13 for them.

Keep an eye on (Bad):New Orleans 14-24 ATS - Indianapolis 16-26 ATS
Off the big battle with Dallas, the Saints could be a bit flat even in a division game against Tampa Bay (10/6).

A meaningful AFC South showdown against Houston (10/20) at home will have implications.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Blitz - Week 5
October 5, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Buccaneers at Saints (-3, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
Tampa Bay (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) is winless in two home games this season, but the Buccaneers have excelled on the road by beating the Panthers and Rams in the underdog role. In Week 4’s most unexpected result, nobody predicted the Bucs would drop 55 points on defending NFC champion Los Angeles in a 55-40 upset as nine-point underdogs. Jameis Winston posted 385 yards and four touchdown passes for the Bucs, who have covered five consecutive games as an underdog since Week 15 of 2018.

For the first time since Teddy Bridgewater has taken over as starting quarterback for the injured Drew Brees, the Saints (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) are listed in the favorite role on Sunday. Bridgewater led the Saints past the Seahawks as a road underdog in Week 3, followed by a 12-10 triumph as 2 ½-point home underdog to hand the Cowboys their first loss of the season. The Saints are laying points for the first time since a Week 1 last-second win over the Texans, but New Orleans is riding an 0-5 ATS run (including the playoffs) since Week 15 of 2018 as a favorite.

The road team captured each of the two matchups last season, as the Buccaneers outlasted the Saints, 48-40 as 10-point underdogs in the 2018 opener. Both Brees and Bucs’ quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick each eclipsed the 400-yard passing mark in that shootout, but the Saints got the better of Tampa Bay in the second meeting at Raymond James Stadium, 28-14 as 10-point favorites. The Bucs own a 3-2 ATS mark in the last five trips to the Superdome, but all three covers came as a touchdown underdog or higher.

Best Bet: Saints 24, Buccaneers 20

Bills at Titans (-2 ½, 39 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
Although it’s only Week 5, this is a pivotal game in the AFC playoff race as a Buffalo (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) would help solidify the Bills as a Wild Card contender. The Bills started 3-0 prior to suffering their first loss of the season last Sunday, 16-10 to the Patriots. Buffalo fell to 3-29 in the past 32 meetings with New England, but managed a cover as seven-point underdogs. The Bills outgained the Patriots by 151 yards, but scored only one touchdown as Buffalo has amassed more yardage than its opponents in all four games.

The Titans (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) rebounded from consecutive divisional losses to the Colts and Jaguars to knock off the Falcons, 24-10 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. Tennessee jumped out to a 24-7 halftime lead and cruised to its second win this season in the ‘dog role led by Marcus Mariota’s three touchdown passes. The only issue for the Titans this season is succeeding in the favorite situation as Tennessee is 0-2 SU/ATS when laying points.

Buffalo squeezed past Tennessee last season, 13-12 as six-point home underdogs, marking the third consecutive meeting since 2012 that has been decided by exactly one point. The Bills are leaving the state of New York for the first time this season, as Buffalo tries to improve on a 6-3 ATS record in its past nine road contests.

Best Bet: Titans 17, Bills 14

Packers at Cowboys (-3 ½, 47) – 4:25 PM EST
Both these NFC squads dropped their first game of the season last week as each of these teams seek a 4-1 start. Green Bay’s (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) offense finally woke up, notably quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who threw for a season-high 422 yards after not posting more than 235 yards in any of the first three wins. However, Rodgers was intercepted on the final drive in the red zone as the Packers lost to the Eagles, 34-27 as 3 ½-point favorites. Now, Green Bay is flipped to a road underdog, as the Packers are 2-9 SU and 3-7-1 ATS the past nine games away from Lambeau Field.

The Cowboys (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) took care of the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins in each of the first three weeks, while scoring at least 31 points in each of those victories. Dallas didn’t allow a touchdown in last week’s game at New Orleans, but the Saints did enough to edge the Cowboys, 12-10. Heading into the fourth quarter, the Cowboys led, 10-9 before a short Wil Lutz field goal put the Saints ahead for good to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs. Dak Prescott threw nine touchdown passes in the first three games, but didn’t reach the end zone, while Ezekiel Elliott was held to his lowest rushing output of the season with 35 yards.

Dallas responded well off a loss in 2018 by going 5-1 SU, but covered only twice in those six opportunities. The Packers have owned the Cowboys over the last decade by winning seven of the last eight meetings since 2009, as Green Bay is 3-0 in Arlington in this stretch. The three wins have come by 1, 3, and 4 points, capped off by a 35-31 victory as 2 ½-point underdogs in 2017 as Green Bay erased a 21-6 deficit by scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute.

Best Bet: Packers 28, Cowboys 24

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (2-3 last week, 11-9 this season)
Cardinals +3
Vikings -5 ½
Falcons +5
Colts +11
Browns +3 ½

Chris David (2-3 last week, 8-12 this season)
Panthers -3 ½
Vikings -5 ½
Titans -3
Redskins +15 ½
Saints -3 ½

SURVIVOR PICKS
Kevin Rogers (3-1)
Eliminated – Rams lost to Buccaneers in Week 4
Chris David (4-0, Week 1 – SEA, Week 2 – NE, Week 3 – DAL, Week 4 – LAC)
Eagles over Jets

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 40 ½ - Bears vs. Raiders
Chicago and Oakland hook up at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London for the first overseas game of the season. The Raiders are coming off an impressive road victory over the Colts last week, 31-24, but Oakland has struggled to score points following a win since Jon Gruden returned as head coach. Oakland is 0-5 off a win since 2018, while scoring 10, 3, 16, 17, and 10 points in those games. Oh, and throw in the fact that All-Pro linebacker Khalil Mack is facing his former team for the first time since the Raiders dealt him to the Bears prior to last season. The Bears have allowed no more than 15 points in a game this season and even though they turn to backup quarterback Chase Daniel, Chicago may win this game and not even reach 21 points.

TRAP OF THE WEEK
The Broncos still haven’t won a game yet this season as they sit at 0-4. Tow of those losses came on a last-second field goal at home to the Bears and Jaguars, while squandering a 17-3 lead in last week’s two-point defeat to Jacksonville. Denver heads to Los Angeles to face the Chargers, who are coming off their second win of the season. The Chargers opened up as 6 ½-point favorites, but that number has dropped to 5 ½ at the Westgate Superbook. Denver rallied past Los Angeles last season, 23-22, as the Chargers own a 2-6-1 ATS mark in their last nine home contests.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE
Both the Bengals and Cardinals have yet to win a game this season as the two teams hook up at Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati opened up as a 4 ½-point favorite at the Westgate Superbook, but the Bengals have dropped to a three-point favorite. The Bengals’ offense has gone backwards from a yardage perspective each week, while tallying only 175 yards in last Monday’s 27-3 drubbing by Pittsburgh. Cincinnati has won only one of its last 12 games dating back to last season, while Arizona seeks its second road cover of the season.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
The Falcons have struggled in the role of a road underdog the last few seasons by accumulating a dreadful 1-8 SU/ATS mark. The only victory came at Washington in 2018 as a measly one-point ‘dog, while Atlanta is 0-2 ATS when receiving points on the road this season in defeats at Minnesota and Indianapolis. The last time the Falcons won outright as a road underdog of four points or more came at Oakland in Week 2 of the 2016 season. Atlanta is facing its third consecutive AFC South opponent, as the Falcons try to end their interconference hex by going 1-12 in their last 13 matchups with AFC foes.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 5
October 4, 2019
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Patriots are 10-0 ATS (9.25 ppg) since Oct 17, 2004 and off a game as a favorite of more than three points where they failed to complete at least 50% of their passes.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Panthers are 0-11 ATS (-9.82 ppg) since Oct 01, 2006 as a favorite off a win in which they scored more field goals than touchdowns.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Titans are 0-7 ATS (-9.50 ppg) since Sep 20, 2015 coming off a win where Marcus Mariota threw at least 3 touchdowns.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Games since 1998 with a total of 41+ when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in their last game are 27-11 OU. Active on Arizona/Cincy and Atlanta/Houston.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Falcons are 0-11 OU (-5.55 ppg) since Nov 11, 2001 coming off a game as a home favorite where they scored less than 14 points.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Ravens are 11-0 OU (7.05 ppg) since Dec 16, 2007 on the road coming off a home game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Saints are 0-13 ATS (-13.92 ppg) as a favorite over a divisional opponent after a one to three point win.

=-- The Bills are 0-8 since 2007 against AFC team on grass fields where they are not favorite of more than 3 points when they scored less than 13 points last game.

[Udog]

NFL Week 5 Sunday odds and line moves: Public backs Bears, book needs Raiders in London
Patrick Everson

Chicago's defense flexed its collective muscle last week in a 16-6 home victory over Minnesota. The Bears, minus QB Mitch Trubisky, are 5.5-point favorites against Oakland on Sunday in London.

NFL Week 5 Sunday has 13 games on the docket, including the first London contest of the season. Covers checks in on the action and odds movement for that tilt and three others, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Chicago Bears vs. Oakland Raiders – Open: -5.5; Move: +5; Move: +4.5; Move: +5; Move: +4.5; Move: +5; Move: +5.5; Move: +5; Move: +5.5

Chicago lost quarterback Mitch Trubisky to a dislocated left shoulder in Week 4, then found a way to win without him. The Bears (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) got enough from Chase Daniel and a stingy defense to beat Minnesota 16-6 as 1-point home underdogs.

Oakland heads to London to continue its protracted road trip, as Jon Gruden’s squad hit the highway in Week 3 and won’t play another home game until Nov. 3. The Raiders (2-2 SU and ATS) didn’t let it bother them last week, beating Indianapolis 31-24 as 5.5-point road pups.

Chicago dipped from -5.5 to -4.5 early in the week, but was back at -5.5 by Saturday afternoon for this 1 p.m. ET kickoff.

“It kind of crawled back up a little bit,” Osterman said. “A lot of Bears support, which is not really a surprise. The sharps haven’t gotten involved. The public is all over the Bears. As far as the early games go, that’s probably gonna be our biggest decision.”


Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -4.5; Move: -3.5

Green Bay heads into this 4:25 p.m. ET clash off a mini-bye, having played the Thursday nighter in Week 4. The Packers (3-1 SU and ATS) probably needed the breather after losing to Philadelphia 34-27 laying 3.5 points at home.

Dallas also drew a prime-time assignment in Week 4 and, like Green Bay, suffered its first loss of the season. Playing in the Sunday nighter, the Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) went off as 2.5-point favorites at New Orleans and fell short in a defensive battle, 12-10.

“The majority of the money has come in on the Cowboys,” Osterman said, noting Dallas -3.5 is priced at even money due to a banged-up offensive line. “The biggest bet on that game, low five figures, is on the Cowboys, and we haven’t seen the sharps get involved. With the Cowboys’ offensive line injuries, sharps might be looking to bet the Packers, but don’t want to pay the -120 juice.

“If you’re looking to bet the Packers, you might want to wait until just before kickoff.”

Osterman said parlay play is running toward the Cowboys, too, and The SuperBook has a decent need on the Packers.


Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: +3.5; Move: +3; Move: +3.5; Move: +3

Baltimore blew an opportunity to take an early two-game lead in the AFC North. The Browns were 7.5-point home favorites against Cleveland in Week 4, but allowed 30 second-half points in a 40-25 setback.

Pittsburgh has shown well since losing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to a Week 2 elbow injury. The Steelers nearly stole a Week 3 win at San Francisco, then finally cracked the win column with a 27-3 rout of Cincinnati giving 3.5 points in the Week 4 Monday night game.

“We’re at Ravens -3 (-120), and that’s where the majority of the money has come on both sides,” Osterman said of action for a 1 p.m. ET start. “We’re seeing a little more money on the Steelers, but the public is more on the Ravens. We’ve got decent parlay liability on Baltimore, too. But I wouldn’t expect this to go to 3.5.”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints – Open: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3

Tampa Bay traveled to the West Coast last week and notched one of the more surprising upsets so far this season. The Buccaneers (2-2 SU and ATS) were 9-point ‘dogs against the Los Angeles Rams, but took a 21-0 lead and weathered a big comeback in a 55-40 shootout victory.

New Orleans is 2-0 SU and ATS without Drew Brees, who’s recovering from a thumb injury, but Sean Payton’s troops didn’t exactly light it up last week. Playing in the Sunday nighter, the Saints slogged to a 12-10 victory over Dallas catching 2.5 points at home.

Tampa Bay is drawing the bulk of the cash in this 1 p.m. ET NFC South clash.

“We’ve seen a lot of Bucs support, mostly from the public,” Osterman said. “A lot public action is ‘What have you done for me lately?’ Tampa should’ve won that game against the Giants (Week 3), then looked good in Los Angeles. The Saints beat the Cowboys, but didn’t look too good. We need the Saints for quite a bit. It’s a decent-sized decision for us.”

[Udog]

SNF - Colts at Chiefs
Matt Blunt

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

SNF Betting Results

There was no sweating out last week's SNF play, as the Saints and Cowboys never came close to threatening the closing total. The result kept the SNF broadcast crew still in search of their first 'over' game, with the record now sitting at 0-5 O/U when you include Opening Night in Chicago that first Thursday as well. Not one of those games has finished with more then 44 total points scored, and with an average score of 29.6 points per game, points have really been at a premium on SNF in 2019.

The good news for those that prefer offensive football, is that that number should climb much higher after this week's game in Kansas City. KC has got the reigning league MVP under center once again, putting up big numbers each week once again, as this Chiefs offense averages 33.8 points per game themselves. That's more then what SNF games have seen from both teams combined on average, and you know that NBC analyst Al Michaels has to be excited about the possibility of getting a few more touchdown calls in this week.

That might not necessarily mean this 'under' run on SNF will get snapped, as the Chiefs bring some high totals with them each week as well. This week's total currently sits at 56, and that's 3 TD's-plus higher then what we've seen on average from SNF games this year. That's a big jump for sure, and maybe even Michaels' throat isn't ready for THAT many TD calls this week.

So let's get to the breakdown and see what angles we can find.

Total Talk

Interestingly enough, whenever SNF is looking for a high-scoring game to arrive, the Kansas City Chiefs seem to fall right into their laps. Since the start of the 2016 season, KC is on a 7-1 'over' run under the Sunday's lights, with the lone 'under' coming in a 45-10 win against the Bengals last year with the total closing at 56.5. There was the 83-point game versus the Patriots that they fell short in last year, as well as a trip to Seattle that saw 69 points scored. All of the other 'overs' but one saw at least 57 or more points scored, as this Chiefs offense has never stiffened up under the spotlight.

With KC already sporting a 3-1 O/U record this year, you always knew that the 'over' is going to be the popular side in a Chiefs game and this week is no different. When you're putting up 30+ points per game, you don't even need all that much help from your opponent to cash 'over' tickets, and with KC's defense ranking 30th of 32 teams in the league in yards allowed per game, and worst in the NFL in yards allowed per rush (5.87), Kansas City opponents generally have no problem carrying their own weight when it comes to 'overs' in Chiefs games this year. Those three 'overs' have resulted in an average point total of 28 points scored per game by KC opponents, and the only 'under' came in the Chiefs lone division game against the Raiders, who posted 10 points in the first quarter but failed to score the rest of the game.

Last I checked, Indy wasn't a rival of the Chiefs in the AFC West, and in a year that got thrown into chaos at the start with QB Andrew Luck's retirement, Indy has still managed to put up 24 or more points in three of their four games – cashing the 'over' in all of those as well. The Colts only 'under' this year came in their lone division game too, so maybe we will have a Sunday Night shootout yet again involving the Kansas City Chiefs.

Side Spiel

The opening spread for this game at -8.5 to -9 on the Chiefs did not last long at all, and after that initial surge of Chiefs money last Sunday and into Monday afternoon, the spread hit -11 where it currently is and has done nothing but fluctuate in price at that number since. Chances are we could get some Colts buyback as SNF approaches – either from those who grabbed KC at -9 and are looking for a potential middle, or those who believe the number is too high – but I wouldn't expect this number to be much different when all is said and done.

Which makes it tough to take either side in my opinion, as the whole playoff revenge argument gets thrown around as potential backing for a Colts play, but Indy is also without Luck this year, and doesn't have to deal with extreme cold like they did in that game. The weather difference alone calls for a different general gameplan to likely be employed, nevermind that it's a completely different QB back there too.

Indy will look to run the ball and find success that way though – as most teams have so far in 2019 vs KC – and if they are able to do that, produce points, and shorten the game at the same time, this point-spread probably does end up being a bit too high.

Final Thoughts

Similiar to the Eagles-Falcons matchup on SNF in Week 2, this game does set up as one of the potential better teaser plays on the week in terms of teasing either way. You may not be able to drop the Chiefs down to -3 or below for optimal teaser strategy right now, but winning this game by a touchdown or so probably sounds right in most cases. Teasing the Colts up through the key numbers of +14 and +17 gives you a cushion should it end up being a two-TD win for Kansas City, but landing right around either side of this point-spread would not surprise me at all.

Obviously teasing either side means you'll need to pair it up with something else during the week (say, Green Bay +10 or NY Jets +21.5) or the total in this game as well. And like last week, it's the total that stands out more to me from a betting perspective, and as “square” as it may look, going 'over' is probably the only way to go here.

Yes, asking for 57 points is a lot given what we've seen on SNF already, but last year SNF was on a 1-5 O/U run before the Chiefs visited New England in Week 6 and treated us all to that epic back-and-forth game. For whatever reason, Andy Reid's offenses in KC know how to make use of the extra time they afforded before a SNF game, as they've put up an average of 42 points per SNF game in their five contests under the lights the past two years. You get that kind of production from Mahomes and company this week, and the Colts don't even have to lift much weight at all to carry it 'over' the total. Also, make a note that Indy remains banged-up on defense and not having linebacker Darius Leonard or safety Malik Hooker available again won't be easy.

Teasing a side with the 'over' if you are looking for a same-game teaser would be the best option from my view, but as long as this total stays under the key number of 57, I've got no problem taking the high side of this total.

Best Bet: Over 56

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 5
October 6, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Ravens(-3/44) at Steelers, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: This rivalry will have a different feel this season with Joe Flacco now in Denver and Ben Roethlisberger sidelined, but the hatred remains the same. With the Browns replacing the Bengals as a contender, there again doesn’t appear to be enough room in the AFC for both teams to be successful. In opening October against one another, they’ll get a much better idea of where exactly they stand as October opens. The Ravens have dropped consecutive games after opening 2-0 following wins over two of the NFL’s worst teams and the Steelers dominated winless Cincinnati at home on Monday night, so it’s difficult to say with certainty exactly how good these teams are. My expectation is that today’s winner will be the only team who will still have a shot at a playoff berth when they finish the regular season against one another in Baltimore on Dec. 29.

Baltimore leads the NFL in total offense and rushing, but those numbers are inflated by the 59 points they hung on pitiful Miami in Week 1. Last week’s loss to Cleveland saw Jackson throw his first two interceptions of the season. Considering we’re expected to see showers throughout this game, it’s worth knowing that the Steelers are going to be able to better align their defense against the run given the weather conditions. Pittsburgh has struggled to stop the run and will look to control possession with RB James Conner now expected to play without limitations after dealing with an ankle sprain. Top WR Juju Smith-Schuster is a game-time decision with a toe injury and fullback Roosevelt Nix is out. His ability to create space for Conner has been missed and could be a difference-maker in this type of contest. Tight end Vance McDonald hasn’t practiced all week and may miss another game. Nick Vannett, who did a nice job after being signed last week, could be in line for another heavy workload. The Ravens remain without corner Jimmy Smith after losing him in Week 1.

Bears (-6.5/40) vs. Raiders, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: For the first time in 2019, we’ve got some European weather to monitor with this Khalil Mack Bowl taking place in London. The game will be the first NFL game at the brand new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which opened in April. While rain is in the forecast throughout the day, conditions are expected to be dry and windy as Mack looks to wreak havoc against the team that dealt him to the Bears prior to the start of the 2018 season. Expect Mack to introduce himself to rookie Josh Jacobs, the player selected with one of the first-round picks Oakland got from Chicago, but it’s QB Derek Carr likely to bear the brunt of the impact against the league’s most dominant defensive player. Mack has made no secret of having the game circled on his calendar for months and comes in looking to add to his tally of 4.5 sacks and four forced fumbles.

Mack has 17 sacks to his credit with the Bears, while Oakland’s entire team has racked up a combined 18 since his departure, ranking dead last in the NFL in that category over the last year-plus. He’ll try and build on a great game in last week’s win at Indianapolis as the Raiders play the third of five straight games away from Oakland, which will again test their quarterback’s ability to get comfortable in an unfamiliar stadium after struggling over the past two seasons. He’s been able to establish TE Derrick Waller as his go-to receiver, which is important since Tyrell Williams has been listed as questionable this week. He should play, but could be limited, which may put his streak of scoring every game in jeopardy. For Chicago, QB Chase Daniel will in place of Mitchell Trubisky, who remains sidelined by a shoulder injury. With rookie DE Clelin Ferrell potentially out, Daniel should have ample time to throw given the Raiders’ struggles generating pressure since moving on from Mack. Linebacker Vontaze Burfict, the defensive leader of the Oakland defense, is back home after being suspended for the rest of the season for his latest helmet-to-helmet hit. He’s appealed but didn’t travel overseas.

Cardinals at Bengals (-3/46.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Kyler Murray looks for his first victory as a pro as he takes the field for only his second road start on the heels of his least effective game in a 27-10 loss to Seattle last Sunday. The No. 1 pick of the ’19 Draft has thrown for four scores and been picked off four times, but what is most alarming is that he’s been sacked 20 times. With the offensive line playing poorly, Patrick Peterson still suspended until mid-month and a new coaching staff trying to figure things out, it’s not surprising that the Cards are on the verge of the franchise’s worst start in 33 years.

The Bengals have been even worse, coming off a horrendous effort at Pittsburgh in which Andy Dalton had no time to throw. Cincinnati’s only home game to date ended in a 41-17 loss to the 49ers, so Zac Taylor hasn’t made a great first impression considering his team went the entire first month without holding a lead of over three points and trailing the majority of the time. This is likely to be the final time the Bengals are favored until December encounters with the Jets and Dolphins, so it’s important they get off to a strong start in order to avoid the franchise’s first losing streak since 2010. At this rate, the fan base is going to start longing for the days of Marvin Lewis by next week and planning a statue by Thanksgiving. Hopefully they’ll have AJ Green back by then, but the All-Pro receiver is again out for this one. WR John Ross is also out due to a shoulder injury, while the Cardinals will be missing a key playmaker in WR Christian Kirk and will be on their third right tackle. Cincy lost DE Kerry Wynn on Monday night. Arizona lists Terrell Suggs as a game-time decision. Rain may play a role in the second half.

Jaguars at Panthers (-3/40), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Gardner Minshew was masterful in last week’s second half, helping the Jaguars rally past the Broncos by setting up Josh Lambo’s game-winning field goal with a 60-yard drive over the final 1:32. The rookie sixth-round pick has now won consecutive starts and has impressed everyone with his poise. We’ll see if he’s able to continue making his case for keeping the gig when Nick Foles ultimately returns from a broken collarbone next month. Minshew played two seasons in Greenville at East Carolina, roughly 250 miles from Charlotte, before transferring to Washington State. The Panthers are hoping to spoil his return as they seek out their own three-game winning streak behind a backup QB, having ridden Cam Newton’s replacement, Kyle Allen, to road wins over the Cardinals and Texans. Carolina is attempting to end a five-game losing streak at Bank of America Stadium, having last won on Nov. 4 in Week 9 of last season against the Bucs.

Allen won’t have to deal with Jags’ standout corner Jalen Ramsey, who has been ruled out by back trouble. That increases his chances of maintaining an interception-free resume as a pro. He hasn’t lost in his three starts and has made good use of all his weapons, most notably Christian McCaffrey, in running the show for Norv Turner. This will be his debut at home outside of preseason contests, so he’s looking to continue impressing and has prioritized holding on to the football better since he’s fumbled every time he’s been sacked thus far. The Panthers have lost DT Kawann Short up front but will have Gerald McCoy in place to try and help make up for his production.

Vikings (-5.5/43.5) at Giants, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: After victories over Tampa Bay and Washington, rookie Daniel Jones will face his biggest challenge with the Vikings defense coming in for a visit. Saquon Barkley won’t be able to make it back from his high ankle sprain despite remarkable progress, so Wayne Gallman, Jr. hopes to duplicate his production after yielding 118 total yards and two touchdowns in his first start. TE Evan Engram and WR Sterling Sharp have produced, and Jones will add WR Golden Tate to the mix after he’s served out his four-game suspension.

The Vikings have played well enough to be 4-0 considering they’ve surrendered 15.8 points per game but Kirk Cousins has been a disaster, angering teammates Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen with his lack of production. Outside of the Redskins, the quarterbacks the Giants have seen have largely thrived. That includes Josh Allen, who threw for 253 yards and a score while running for another. If Cousins can’t find a rhythm here, head coach Mike Zimmer may have to consider his options despite the fact backup Sean Mannion has limited experience with the team. Windy conditions could limit the offense, while rain is also a possibility late in the afternoon.

Patriots (-16/42) at Redskins, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Colt McCoy will make his debut for the Redskins against a Patriots defense that leads the NFL in fewest points allowed and hasn’t surrendered a passing touchdown all season. The 33-year-old made two starts last season and will be appearing in just his 11th regular-season game with Washington over his six seasons, finally feeling healthy enough to return from a broken right fibula that didn’t heal as quickly as anticipated. For head coach Jay Gruden, this should be the beginning of his last stand as he looks to tighten a tenuous grip on his job as head coach considering things with rookie first-round pick Dwayne Haskins haven’t gotten off to a promising start. Rookie WR Terry McLaurin, who has quickly emerged as the Redskins’ top offensive weapon, is a game-time decision due to a hamstring strain.

Clear conditions should help aid a bounceback opportunity for Tom Brady, who was intercepted and threw for just 150 yards in last week’s 16-10 win over the Bills. Julian Edelman (chest) is likely a game-time call, while tight end Benjamin Watson has been ruled out. Josh Gordon was removed from the injury report and could be poised for a big day against the Washington secondary. With Rex Burkhead out, RBs Sony Michel and James White will also likely receive more snaps. New England’s defense will be missing safety Patrick Chung and list top LB Dont’a Hightower as a game-time decision. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski was placed on IR with a hip injury so Mike Nugent will see his first action.

Jets at Eagles (-14/43.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Sam Darnold is getting closer to a return from mono and should be back within the next few weeks, but he won’t take the field in Philly to try and help the Jets avoid a 15th loss in their last 18 road games. Luke Falk will again start following New York’s bye week after helping produce just 105 yards of total offense in a 30-14 loss at Foxboro two weeks ago. The Patriots loaded up against LeVeon Bell, who has his team’s only offensive touchdown on a TD reception in Week 1, so the expectation is that the Eagles will follow suit. The Jets will be starting a pair of new guards. Defensively, New York will again be without top LB C.J. Mosley but does get back DT Quinnen Williams.

Deep threat DeSean Jackson remains out for Philadelphia, but with potentially windy conditions and a chance of showers, the Eagles will probably rely on the ground game and Carson Wentz’s ability to move the chains via Zach Ertz and the now healthy Alshon Jeffery and Dallas Goedert. Center Jason Kelce will play after the birth of a son and tackle Jason Peters is also cleared to go, which makes this a great opportunity for RBs Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders to break through with big games. Running the ball effectively will be the key to covering this lopsided spread since the Eagles will be looking to keep Falk from finding a rhythm the way the Pats managed to.

Bucs at Saints (-3/46), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Saints are looking for a second straight 4-1 start, which is something they haven’t managed in back-to-back years in their entire 52-year existence. It’s been impressive to see the team rally around the defense without Drew Brees in last week’s win over. Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill have done a nice job allowing Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas to carry the offense. New Orleans’ defense scored in the win at Seattle and held the Cowboys to 12 points last week.

The Bucs have scored 30.8 points and are off to the best offensive start in franchise history, so Bruce Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich have to be commended. Considering Jameis Winston’s season started so dreadfully in a turnover-filled home loss against the 49ers, Tampa is right to be excited about the progress of their former No. 1 pick as he attempts to finally reach the playoffs after leading the Bucs to just one winning season over his first four frustrating years. If the offense does its part, the defense should be able to put together a solid effort since LBs Devin White and Shauquil Barrett join DBs Ryan Smith and Jamel Dean back in the fold.

Falcons at Texans (-4/49.5), 1:05 p.m. ET, FOX: The Texans have had a terrible time protecting Deshaun Watson, while DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t caught a touchdown pass since the opener. Center Zach Fulton is back to anchor the offensive line. Safety Deshaun Gipson and corner Lonnie Johnson are both questionable, so keep an eye on this situation given how much the secondary should be tested by Matt Ryan and Atlanta’s receiving corps.

Slow starts have been one factor the Falcons’ brutal start, so another tough opening quarter against the Texans could spell the end for head coach Dan Quinn. Atlanta has been outscored 38-10 over the opening 15 minutes of their first four games this season, trailing by 17 or more at the break in all three of their losses. If TE Ertz hadn’t come up inches short on a fourth-down conversion in Week 2 in the closing stages of their 24-20 win over Philly, the Falcons would likely be winless.

Bills (-3/38.5) at Titans, 1:05 p.m. ET, CBS: Buffalo QB Josh Allen cleared concussion protocol and will start under center ahead of Matt Barkley as he looks to bounce back from a dreadful start against New England last week. Allen threw three picks before being knocked out of the 16-10 loss in the fourth quarter but will be facing a secondary that held him to just 82 passing yards last season. Buffalo still managed to beat the Titans 13-12 on a game-winning field goal at the final gun in one of Tennessee’s costliest losses in preventing it from reaching the playoffs.

Thunderstorms could be in the mix in Nashville, so scoring might be affected if the skies open and get involved. Tennessee is expected to play DE Cameron Wake despite a lack of practice time this week. Tennessee could be the most improved team in football this week due to the return of left tackle Taylor Lewan from a four-game suspension. Marcus Mariota should have a lot more time to make plays with improved offensive line play and has developed chemistry with rookie WR A.J. Brown, who debuted with a 100-yard game in the Week 1 upset of Cleveland and fueled last week’s win in Atlanta with a pair of scores.

Broncos at Chargers (-5.5/44.5) , 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: Melvin Gordon is going to debut after not playing last week in Miami, but he’s expected to split carries with Austin Ekeler. Philip Rivers now has another playmaker to work with in keeping defenses from keying on WR Keenan Allen. Denver still hasn’t won despite leading both their home games until the final play, losing by two points on a successful last-second field goal each time. The Broncos did get solid play from Joe Flacco last week and have looked better on offense of late as Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant have emerged more consistently. With Bradley Chubb lost for the season, Vic Fangio is likely going to have to let coordinate Rich Scangarello open things up more. The Chargers could be without Melvin Ingram, who is dealing with a hamstring injury, so a defense already compromised by losing safety Derwin James for the season might be vulnerable.

[Udog]

MNF - Browns at 49ers
Tony Mejia

Browns at 49ers (-3.5, 45), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

Despite being a trendy Super Bowl pick and entering the week as a 6-to-5 co-favorite to win the AFC North per Westgate, the Browns are a decisive underdog entering the final game of Week 5. The 49ers come off their bye week and have won three out of four at Levi’s Stadium but haven’t been particularly strong over the past few years.

You can understand that logic fueling an opening number in the 3.5-to-4 range, but after initially dipping to Browns +3, the overwhelming amount of support has come in on the Niners. Although every wager is essentially a vote of confidence, this one feels like it packs a little extra because we’re not sure what to make of either of these franchises considering how accustomed we’ve grown to seeing them struggle.

San Francisco (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) hasn’t made the playoffs since 2013 and has lost 47 games over the past four seasons. Cleveland (2-2, 2-2) has made the playoffs once in the 20 years since returning to the NFL and has 15 seasons featuring double-figures in losses within that span. Last season’s 7-8-1 run delivered the Browns’ third-highest winning percentage since 1995.

First-year head coach Freddie Kitchens is essentially learning as he goes and a team with multiple big personalities is just starting to learn one another after a month of action, so the Browns remain vulnerable despite there being enough talent on the roster to end a playoff drought dating back to 2002. Odell Beckham, Jr. has started paying dividends and former top pick Myles Garrett is proving to be one of the NFL’s top defensive difference-makers week in and week out, so there’s plenty to be excited about if both units come together and play to their potential.

Cleveland has alternated wins and losses thus far, getting blown out at home by the Titans in Week 1 and losing a one-possession game to the Rams on a Sunday night two weeks ago in which Kitchens made some bad decisions to compound matters. His team is perfect on the road straight up and against the spread, defeating the Jets 23-3 and winning in Baltimore 40-25 last week in its most impressive performance to date.

49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is in the third season of his tenure and was poised to take a step forward, but it still remains to be seen whether there’s substance to this early success. San Francisco’s three victims will close Week 5 with a combined record of 3-12. Following this Monday night game, the Niners will go down to L.A. for a divisional clash with the Rams, so we’ll know a lot more about the 49ers in a week’s time. At the moment, they emerge from their bye week as a group that has been able to capitalize effectively on the mistakes of bad teams.

On the bright side, it’s entirely possible that the best is ahead for the 49ers considering Garoppolo appears to be playing himself back into a rhythm after tearing his ACL in Week 3 last season. He was turnover-prone all preseason, struggling both in games and in joint practices and scrimmages, so San Francisco can only hope that he’s going to turn the corner and be more careful with the ball after a bye week. Garoppolo will eclipse his game total from last season after taking his first snap here and will be making just his 14th professional start, putting him four games behind Mayfield in that category despite entering the league in 2014.

He’s coming off his first multi-pick game of the season in helping a Steelers team led by first-time starter Mason Rudolph hang around two weeks ago and has thrown five touchdowns to go with his four interceptions. Mayfield has been picked off in every game and has an ugly 4-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio, so Monday night’s showdown may very well boil down to which secondary forces the most miscues. Injuries have been a big deal for both, so be sure to scroll down for the report below on the way out for news on who is in and who’s out

Richard Sherman has remained healthy and has brought his leadership and intelligence to San Francisco defensive backfield, making up for a lost step with his attention to detail. The Browns are led by aggressive safety Damarious Randall, a former first-round pick who has had 14 interceptions over four years with Green Bay and Cleveland and has really blossomed into a guy who can be counted upon to fly around the field.

Beckham, Jr. and Jarvis Landry form the Browns’ highly-regarded receiving combo, while San Francisco employs more of a collective approach in playing off elite tight end George Kittle. Rookie Deebo Samuel may ultimately emerged as the No. 1 receiver, but burner Marquise Goodwin, Dante Pettis and Richie James all have touchdown receptions. Shanahan has effectively utilized his run blocking schemes to get multiple guys going thus far, utilizing Matt Breida as the workhorse, Jeff Wilson around the goal line and Raheem Mostert in a change-of-pace role that may now be played by offseason acquisition Tevin Coleman, who will make his 49ers debut after healing up from an ankle injury.

The Browns’ run game is led by Nick Chubb, who helped take down Baltimore with an 88-yard fourth-quarter run. In all, he went for three scores, all in the second half, and wound up with 165 yards on 20 carries. The second-year standout from Georgia has led Cleveland in rushing in all four games but his 100-yard effort was the first of the season. As a whole, Cleveland is looking for improved offensive line play to stave off DeForest Buckner, Nick Bosa and a fierce 49ers front seven.

The Niners have played only once in Santa Clara this season, failing to cover against Pittsburgh prior to their bye week. They were 4-4 at home last season but covered in only three of their wins. The Browns have covered five of their last six road games, winning three outright. After an unseasonably warm day for October in NoCal, weather is expected to be gorgeous as the night unfolds, with typically windy weather not expected to factor in. The total has hovered in the 47.5/48 range since opening for business.

LINE MOVEMENT

Cleveland Browns
Projected season win total: 9 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win AFC North (pre-Week 1/current):7/5 to 6/5
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 15/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 18/1 to 40/1

San Francisco 49ers
Projected season win total: 8 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC West (pre-Week 1/current): 4/1 to 2/1
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 40/1 to 25/1

INJURY CONCERNS

Mayfield got great news with Jarvis Landry clearing concussion protocol, which combined with Antonio Callaway coming off suspension and Rashard Higgins possibly returning from a knee issue, revitalizes the Beckham-led receiving corps. Tight end David Njoku was lost to a wrist injury and is on IR, so Mayfield will welcome having more options. San Francisco will have top safety Jimmie Ward available after a finger issue and should have DEs Dee Ford (quad) and Nck Bosa (ankle) back in addition to safety Jaquiski Tartt to help defend Cleveland.

Veteran tackle Joe Staley remains out for San Francisco, while the Browns won’t have tackle Kendall Lamm due to a knee injury. The 49ers could catch a break since DBs Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams may miss another game due to hamstring injuries. Safety Morgan Burnett should play after returning to practice following a quad injury.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 6 currently has the 49ers as a 5.5-point road underdog in their aforementioned NFC West clash against the Rams. The Browns were listed as a 2-point favorite against Seattle as they turn their attention to picking up their first home win upon returning from the Bay Area.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 5 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 6-6-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-7
Against the Spread 5-7-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-5

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 46-29-1
Against the Spread 31-43-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 33-42-1
Against the Spread 26-48-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 36-40

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Colts (+11, ML +425) at Chiefs, 19-13
Raiders (+6.5, ML +250) vs. Bears, 24-21
Broncos (+4.5, ML +200) at Chargers, 20-13
Packers (+3.5, ML +160) at Cowboys, 34-24
Bills (+3, ML +160) at Titans, 14-7
Cardinals (+3, ML +140) at Bengals, 26-23

The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-16.5) at Redskins, 33-7
Eagles (-14) vs. Jets, 31-6
Vikings (-6) at Giants, 28-10
Texans (-4) vs. Falcons, 53-32
Panthers (-3) vs. Jaguars, 34-27
Saints (-3) vs. Buccaneers, 31-24

Chief Concern

-- The Kansas City Chiefs were expected to mow over the Indianapolis Colts (+11, ML +425) at Arrowhead on Sunday Night Football. The Colts entered the game with several defensive backs banged up, and other falling like flies in the first half. But, cliche' totally intended, that's why they play the games. The Colts fought to a 13-10 halftime lead, they held on in a scoreless third quarter, and actually pushed their lead to 19-10 before the Chiefs booted a field goal in the fourth quarter for the low-scoring 19-13 road victory.

The Chiefs had scored 25 or more points in 25 consecutive games, an NFL record, but that's all over now. QB Patrick Mahomes also dinged up his already nagging ankle injury, and his lack of mobility made him look rather mortal. And the lack of discipline, racking up 11 penalties for 125 yards, certainly didn't help matters either. The Chiefs also lost WR Sammy Watkins, LB Anthony Hitchens, DLs Chris Jones and Xavier Williams to injuries, too. Still, as heavy favorites, they should have been able to overcome. They didn't, and that's a concern going forward.

Jekyll And Hyde Texans

-- The Houston Texans rolled the Atlanta Falcons 53-23 at NRG Stadium, which is how many predicted the Texans offense would look. QB Deshaun Watson finally broke out, and the Texans were on fire in all facets of the game. But then why did they score just 10 last week against the Carolina Panthers in a 16-10 loss at home, especially against a backup QB? The week before they went on the road and won 27-20 at Los Angeles Chargers, following up a 13-12 dud against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They're in one of those weird odd-week, even-week patterns. They're 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in odd-numbered weeks, and 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in even-numbered weeks. We'll see if that continues next Sunday on the road against the Chiefs. Hmm.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Indianapolis Colts-Kansas City Chiefs (55.5) battle, and as mentioned, it didn't even come close. In fact, the Sunday Night Football game has hit the 'under' in all six games, with the underdog 4-2 SU/ATS. File that away for next Sunday's battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Chargers.

The second-highest total on the board was the Falcons-Texans (50) game, and Houston took care of the number themselves. The next highest total was the Los Angeles Rams-Seattle Seahawks (48.5) battle on Thursday night, a 30-29 win in favor of the Seahawks. Thursdays are the night of the underdog, going 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS through the first four installments, with the 'over' cashing in the past two.

The next highest total is the Monday Night Football tilt between the Cleveland Browns-San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium, still to be determined.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans (39) game, the only one with a total in the 30's. The Bills, who have won three straight away games for the first time since the 2004 season, is the only team in the NFL to hit the 'under' in all five of their games so far. It might not be pretty, but they're winning.

The next lowest total was in the London battle at Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium. The Oakland Raiders-Chicago Bears (40) game wasn't a track meet, but it did end up going 'over'. It was just 17-0 at half in favor of the Raiders, but the Bears threw up 21 points in the third quarter to help the total inch over the finish line at 'over'.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 split in the first two primetime games of Week 5, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Browns-49ers (47.5) still pending. The 'over' is 4-11 (26.7%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 6-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, and 3-1 in the past four MNF outings.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Giants RB Wayne Gallman (concussion) exited early, as the replacement for RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) needed medical attention of his own. Not good.

-- Steelers QB Mason Rudolph (concussion) was forced out of action, leaving undrafted rookie free-agent QB Devlin Hodges to finish up the game. He did well enough to steer the team to overtime, but they lost to the Ravens 26-23. Cue the Colin Kaepernick talk in the Steel City.

Looking Ahead

-- The Panthers and Buccaneers lock horns in London next Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET. They already played on Thursday night in Week 2, with the Bucs winning 20-14 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, covering as 6 1/2-point underdogs while hitting the 'under' (48). That game was the last time we saw QB Cam Newton (foot). Since then it's QB Kyle Allen starting, going 3-0 SU/ATS in three starts in place of Supercam. In this series, the 'under' has hit in six of the past seven meetings, with the underdog going 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings.

-- The Bengals and Ravens will tangle in Charm City, with Cincinnati still searching for its first win of the season. While the Bengals are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 games inside the AFC North Division, they failed to cover at Pittsburgh two weeks ago in a blowout loss, and most of the stat above was with a team which was NFL caliber, not this current version of the Bengals. The Ravens have failed to cover in five straight games at home, so something's gotta give. Remember, Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to Baltimore, and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 in this series.

-- In another divisional battle, the 49ers and Rams lock horns in Southern California. The 49ers are 1-5 ATS in the past six NFC West battles, while the Rams are 4-1 ATS in the past five against NFC West foes. That includes a narrow cover as 1 1/2-point underdogs in Seattle, losing 30-29 last Thursday. The 'over' has cashed in five of the past six meetings in L.A., four of the past five meetings overall and the Rams are just 2-5 ATS in the previous seven in this series.

-- On Monday Night Football, the Lions and Packers square off at Lambeau Field, and Green Bay is looking to carry over momentum after a 34-24 win at Dallas. The Lions are well rested, coming off a bye, and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven following a week off. The Lions have cashed in four of the past five on the road, while covering five of the past seven appearances on a Monday. The Packers have covered just three of the past 10 inside the NFC North, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven appearances on Monday. In this series, while the Lions have covered four in a row, the favorite has hit in 19 of the past 26. The over is also an impressive 6-1 in the past seven meetings.