Announcement

**Udog** · 10-01-2019, 07:55 AM

Betting Recap - Week 4
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 4 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 6-8
Against the Spread 3-11

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 3-11
Against the Spread 5-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 37-24-1
Against the Spread 24-37-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 26-35-1
Against the Spread 20-41-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 28-34

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+9.5, ML +375) at Rams, 55-40
Browns (+7, ML +280) at Ravens, 40-25
Panthers (+5.5, ML +210) at Texans, 16-10
Raiders (+5.5, ML +210) at Colts, 31-24
Eagles (+3.5, ML +170) at Packers, 34-27
Titans (+3.5, ML +160) at Falcons, 24-10

The largest favorite to cover
Chargers (-14.5) at Dolphins, 30-10
Seahawks (-5.5) at Cardinals, 27-10
Giants (-3) vs. Redskins, 24-3

Living Up To The Hype

-- The Cleveland Browns (+7, ML +280) hit the road for a key AFC North battle against the Baltimore Ravens, and their struggling offense finally hit its stride. The Browns entered the day with 49 points scored through three games, or 16.3 PPG, but they erupted for 40 in this one to help the books immensely. The Browns are now 0-2 SU/ATS in two games at home and 2-0 SU/ATS in two games on the road.

Cleveland posted 193 rushing yards, 337 passing yards and 22 first downs with no fumbles lost and just one interception. The lack of turnovers was key in their road win, and they at least cut their penalties down to a manageable six for 41 yards. Cleveland's red-zone efficiency was a solid 4-for-5, something they could have used more help with against the Rams last Sunday night.

Ram It

-- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rolled up a franchise-record 55 points in their win on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, winning outright as 9.5-point underdogs (ML +375). The Bucs offense has improved every week, scoring 17 points in Week 1, 20 points in Week 2, 31 points in Week 3 and 55 points in Week 4. Unfortunately for the Bucs, they'll need to figure out their defensive problems if they wish to continue winning. They're allowing 29.3 PPG through four outings, including at least 31 points in three of the four contests.

Total Recall

-- The 'under' will outperform the 'over' in Week 4, regardless of what happens in the Monday Night Football contest.

The highest total on the board was the Kansas City Chiefs-Detroit Lions (54.5) lived up to the hype, as the Chiefs outlasted the Lions 34-30 at Ford Field, as the Chiefs dealt the Lions their first straight-up loss of the season. It was amazing that the 'over' connected considering that QB Patrick Mahomes failed to throw or run for a touchdown in the game. The second-highest total on the board, the Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (49) saw a scoreless third quarter keep the lid on the scoring, ending up going under by 12 points. The two games at 48 or 48.5, the Bucs-Rams (48.5) and Washington Redskins-New York Giants (48) were completely different results. The 'Skins mustered just three points in a 24-3 loss, while the Bucs-Rams saw 95 total points, easily the highest scoring game of the 2019 season. It was the highest-scoring game in the NFL since 105 points were put up in the Chiefs-Rams game on Nov. 19, 2018.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Jacksonville Jaguars-Denver Broncos (37) game, which was a very entertaining affair. QB Gardner Minshew led the Jags to a 26-24 comeback win, including 20 points in the second half. The other game with a total in the 30's, the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (38) game, ended up with a just 22 points, and the Bears nearly pitched the shutout until the Vikings scored in the final few minutes to make it 16-6.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 4, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Cincinnati Bengals-Pittsburgh Steelers (44.5) still pending. The 'over' is 3-9 (25.0%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 5-0 for Sunday Night Football this season.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) suffered a left shoulder injury early in the game vs. the Vikings, so it was the QB Chase Daniel show to close out the win.

-- Bills QB Josh Allen (concussion) was knocked out of the loss against the Patriots, and the Bills suffered their first setback of the season as a result.

-- Lions TE T.J. Hockenson (head) attempted to hurdle a defender, had his legs taken out, and he banged his head on the turf. Perhaps that will be the end of that move. Maybe not.

Looking Ahead

-- The Rams and Seahawks will square off on Thursday Night Football in Seattle. The Rams have posted a 4-0 ATS mark in their past four road outings, and they're 7-3 ATS in the past 10 inside the division. However, they're also just 1-5 ATS in the past six appearances on TNF. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have posted an impressive 7-0-2 ATS mark in their past nine showings on Thursday, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four against winning sides. Seattle looks even more impressive when you consider they're 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and 9-3 ATS in the past 12 battles in the Pacific Northwest.

-- The Buccaneers and Saints will lock horns in the Big Easy on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Bucs won outright and covered in their first road game Sunday in L.A., and they're now 4-0-1 ATS in the past five on the road. The Saints edged the Cowboys 12-10 on Sunday night in a low-scoring affair, but they still got it done and are 2-0 SU/ATS in two games since QB Drew Brees (thumb) went down. QB Teddy Bridgewater is doing enough to get it done. The 'under' has hit in 15 of the past 21 meetings in this series, so perhaps the Saints D, which cooled off the Cowboys, can hold down the Bucs.

-- The Ravens and Steelers will tangle in the Steel City. After Baltimore's straight-up loss at home to the Browns, they're now 0-5 ATS in the past five inside the division. They look to snap that in Pittsburgh, as they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five trips to Heinz Field, and they're 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series. The 'over' is 13-6-2 ATS in the past 21 meetings in Pittsburgh, too.

-- The Broncos and Chargers will square off in L.A., as Denver finally looks to get it right. They're 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS, including a pair of narrow losses at home on last-second field goals. The Broncos vaunted D hasn't shown up, allowing 23.4 PPG through four outings so far. The Chargers have hit the 'under' in each of their past three outings, too. The under is also 6-0 in the past six battles in Southern California in this series, and 9-4 in the past 13 meetings overall.

-- The Browns won their first appearance on Monday night against the Jets back in Week 2, now they get another shot under the lights in San Francisco. The 49ers are coming off a bye, so they'll be fairly healthy and well-rested, and they get an extra day with the MNF game. That's the first-place 49ers against the first-place Browns. Is this an alternate universe? The Browns are 4-0 ATS in the past four on the road, while the 49ers are 26-7 ATS in the past 33 on MNF. Something's gotta give. Well, the Niners are also 0-6 ATS in the past six following a bye.

**Udog** · 10-01-2019, 07:56 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 3

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LA RAMS (3 - 1) at SEATTLE (3 - 1) - 10/3/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 196-241 ATS (-69.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 196-241 ATS (-69.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 90-122 ATS (-44.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 141-190 ATS (-68.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 150-191 ATS (-60.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 70-103 ATS (-43.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 38-61 ATS (-29.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 45-68 ATS (-29.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-1 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 6

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BALTIMORE (2 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 3) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 81-55 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 64-36 ATS (+24.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 72-43 ATS (+24.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (3 - 1) vs. OAKLAND (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 147-184 ATS (-55.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (0 - 3 - 1) at CINCINNATI (0 - 3) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2) at CAROLINA (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (2 - 2) at NY GIANTS (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (4 - 0) at WASHINGTON (0 - 4) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 264-202 ATS (+41.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 264-202 ATS (+41.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-95 ATS (+21.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-95 ATS (+21.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 195-148 ATS (+32.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 104-72 ATS (+24.8 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 72-47 ATS (+20.3 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 68-94 ATS (-35.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (0 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 1) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (1 - 3) at HOUSTON (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (3 - 1) at TENNESSEE (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 118-155 ATS (-52.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (0 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (3 - 1) at DALLAS (3 - 1) - 10/6/2019, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 0) - 10/6/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 7

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CLEVELAND (2 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 0) - 10/7/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 32-11 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 10-01-2019, 07:57 AM

NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 3

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle's last 13 games
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games at home
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Seattle is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Seattle's last 18 games when playing LA Rams
Seattle is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Seattle is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
LA Rams is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games
LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
LA Rams is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games on the road
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
LA Rams is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of LA Rams's last 18 games when playing Seattle
LA Rams is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Seattle
LA Rams is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle

Sunday, October 6

Houston Texans
Houston is 3-4-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Houston is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
New Orleans is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 13 games
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New Orleans is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home
New Orleans is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of New Orleans's last 21 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 19 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 21 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Tennessee is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Buffalo
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Buffalo is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Tennessee
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee

Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Carolina is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Carolina is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games
Jacksonville is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games
Jacksonville is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Carolina

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

New York Giants
NY Giants is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games
NY Giants is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
NY Giants is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of NY Giants's last 22 games at home
NY Giants is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
NY Giants is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Giants

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Philadelphia is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 15 games at home
Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Pittsburgh's last 16 games at home
Pittsburgh is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

Washington Redskins
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
Washington is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
New England Patriots
New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
New England is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington

Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
Oakland is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
Chicago is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago's last 9 games
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Chargers is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games
LA Chargers is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
LA Chargers is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games at home
LA Chargers is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Chargers's last 13 games when playing Denver
LA Chargers is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver
LA Chargers is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 13 games
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games on the road
Denver is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Denver's last 13 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Denver is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games
Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games at home
Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Dallas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Dallas's last 21 games when playing Green Bay
Dallas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Dallas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Green Bay's last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games on the road
Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Green Bay's last 21 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Green Bay is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City's last 16 games at home
Kansas City is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Indianapolis
Kansas City is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Kansas City is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Kansas City is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Kansas City
Indianapolis is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Indianapolis is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City

Monday, October 7

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-01-2019, 07:58 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Rams (3-1) @ Seattle (3-1)— Rams turned ball over seven times (-5) in their last two games; they got shredded for 55 points in home loss to Bucs LW- Tampa Bay converted 8-13 3rd down plays. Under McVay, LA is 4-3 ATS coming off a loss, 3-1 as road underdogs, 4-2 in NFC West road games. Seahawks are off to 3-1 start, despite trailing three of the four games at halftime; their foes converted only 9 of last 31 third down plays. Seattle is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite; their last three games were all against rookie or backup QB’s. Rams won last three series games, scoring 42-33-36 points; they won three of last four visits to Seattle.

Ravens (2-2) @ Steelers (1-3)— Baltimore allowed 1,033 yards, 73 points in losing its last two games; in their last three games, Ravens allowed 7.7/7.9/10.5 yards/pass attempt- they’re 5-10-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog. Baltimore has run ball for 205.8 ypg; three of their four games went over. Pittsburgh had little resistance in its win Monday night; Steelers are 7-9 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite. Pitt still hasn’t run the ball for more than 81 yards in a game this year; they’ve converted only 12-44 third down plays, but haven’t allowed a first half TD in their last two games. Steelers won four of last five series games, but Ravens are 3-2 in last five visits to Steel City.

Bears (3-1) vs Raiders (2-2) (@ London)— Oakland traded LB Kahlil Mack to the Bears last summer; this is their first meeting since. Bears’ backup QB Daniel has been in NFL for 10 years, but this will be only his 5th NFL start (2-2)- he started two games LY. Chicago won its last three games, outscoring foes 44-6 in first half; they’re +7 in turnovers in those games. Under is 3-1 in Chicago games. Oakland split its first four games, scoring 10-14 in losses, 24-31 in wins- Raiders allowed 28-34-24 points in last three games. This is Oakland’s third straight road game, albeit a neutral site; Raiders are 9-17-2 ATS in last 28 games as a dog. Teams split 14 meetings overall.

Cardinals (0-3-1) @ Bengals (0-4)— How are the Bengals favored over anyone located south of Saskatchewan? Cincy is 0-4, scoring six TD’s on 45 drives, with 16 sacks allowed, 19 3/outs, and a -5 turnover ratio- they were outscored 48-13 in first half of their last three games. Brngals are 4-8 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite. Cardinals lost their last three games, and were down 24-6 in the game they tied; Redbirds are 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog. Murray has been sacked 20 times in his first four games. Arizona won three of last four series games, but lost six of seven visits here, wth last one in ’11- their last win in Cincy was in ‘07.

Jaguars (2-2) @ Panthers (2-2)— Battle of backup QB’s here. Jaguars split their two road games, which were decided by total of 3 points- they’re 10-8-1 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog. Jax ran ball for 269 yards in Denver LW; they’ve converted only 9 of last 38 third down plays, but are 3-0 ATS in Minshew’s starts. Carolina is 2-0 SU with Allen at QB; they’re 8-11 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite. Road team won all four Carolina games; they’ve turned ball over eight times in four games (-1). Teams split six meetings, with home side 4-2 in those games; Jaguars lost two of three visits here, with all three games decided by six or fewer points.

Vikings (2-2) @ Giants (2-2)— Vikings are 0-2 on road, scoring 16-6 points, turning ball over six times (-4); they ran ball for 193.7 yards/game in Weeks 1-3, but were held to 40 YR in Chicago LW. Minnesota is 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite. Giants are 2-0 with rookie QB Jones starting, scoring 32-24 points; they covered once in their last seven games as a home underdog. Big Blue was 5-23 on 3rd down in Weeks 1-2; they’re 14-26 in Jones’ two starts. Minnesota won six of last eight series games, last five of which were decided by 16+ points. Vikings won four of last six visits here; last one was in 2013.

Patriots (4-0) @ Redskins (0-4)— Over last 20 years. favorites are 5-2 ATS in Week 5 games if an unbeaten team plays a winless team. Patriots won last three series games by 45-7-17 points; they won 34-27 in last visit here, back in 2011. New England has been awesome so far, allowing one TD on 48 drives; three of their four wins are by 16+ points. NE has eight takeaways in two road wins (+6); they’re 4-6 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite. Redskins are overmatched here; their QB’s are awful- Skins scored 3 points LW vs a Giant defense that allowed 31.3 ppg in Weeks 1-3. Washington was outscored 45-6 in first half of its last two games.

Jets (0-3) @ Eagles (2-2)— Darnold (mono) is a ??? here; his conditioning can’t be good. Jets lost eight of last ten post-bye games (3-7 ATS); they started three different QB’s in their losses this year- Falk likely gets his 2nd NFL start here. Jets are 7-12-2 ATS in last 21 games as a road dog, 1-0 this year. Eagles split their first four games, all decided by 7 or fewer points; they’re 2-8 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite. Three of their four games went over the total. Eagles have converted 32-57 third down plays this year. Philly won last 10 series games by average score of 27-17; Jets lost last five trips here, with last one in 2011.

Buccaneers (2-2) @ Saints (3-1)— Tampa Bay had 28 points at halftime in each of its last two games; they gained 499-464 TY the last two weeks, averaging 8.7 yards/pass attempt in both games, but Bucs have also allowed 31+ points in three games this year. TB was outscored 75-50 in 2nd half of games so far, but Arians is helping Winston thrive at QB. Saints are 2-0 in Bridgewater’s starts, they held Dallas to 45 YR LW after Cowboys had run for 179 yards/game in Weeks 1-3. Since 2014, NO is 12-21-1 ATS as a home favorite. Teams split last eight series games, splitting last four games in each stadium.

Falcons (1-3) @ Texans (2-2)— Atlanta lost its first two road tilts by 16-3 points; they’re 1-8 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog, 0-12 ATS in last dozen games vs AFC opponents. Falcons are averaging only 70.3 rushing yards/game; they were outscored 44-10 in first half of last two games. Houston split its first four games, all decided by 7 or fewer points; road team covered all four of their games- they scored only two TD’s on 20 drives in their home games. Texans are 3-7 ATS in last 10 games as home favorites. Home side won last four Falcon-Texan games, with Atlanta losing 17-13/17-10 in last two visits here.

Bills (3-1) @ Titans (2-2)— Tennessee gets star LT Lewan back from suspension here, which is a big help for their OL; Titans converted 14-30 3rd down plays in last two games, after being 3-20 on 3rd down in Weeks 1-2. Under Vrabel, Tennessee is 1-3 as a home favorite. Buffalo lost tough 16-10 home game to New England LW; QB Allen is banged up, Barkley (2-5 as NFL starter) gets nod if Allen can’t go. Under McDermott, Buffalo is 8-6-1 ATS as a road underdog, 6-4-1 in games wth spread of 3 or fewer points. Last three series games were decided by one point each, with Buffalo winning last two; Bills lost four of last five visits to Nashville.

Broncos (0-4) @ Chargers (2-2)— Denver lost its first four games, losing road games by 8-11 points; they lost their two home games on last-second FG’s. Broncos blew 17-6 halftime lead LW; they’re 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog. Banged-up Chargers led all four games at halftime; they’re 2-7 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite, 0-2 this year. Bolts are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 AFC West home games. Melvin Gordon figures to get some action at RB for Chargers, after he ended his holdout. Teams split last six series games; Denver scored 13-0-9 points in last three series losses. Teams split last four series games in SD/Carson.

Packers (2-2) @ Cowboys (3-1)— Green Bay won seven of last eight series games (2-0 in playoff games), winning last three visits here, 37-36/34-31/35-31. Packers split their first four games, winning only road game 10-3 (+3) in Chicago; they’ve scored 65 first half points, only 20 second half points this year. GB is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog, 3-6-1 in last ten games on artificial turf. Cowboys scored 35-31 points in winning their two home games; they ran ball for 179 yards/game in Weeks 1-3, were held to 45 in Superdome LW. Dallas is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.

Colts (2-2) @ Chiefs (4-0)— Chiefs whacked Colts 31-13 in playoffs LY; Indy’s first TD scored on a blocked punt. KC won last two series games 30-14/31-13 after losing six of the previous seven meetings- Colts won seven of last nine visits to Arrowhead. Indy split its first four games, with all four games decided by 7 or fewer points; under Reich, Indy is 5-2 ATS as a road dog- three of their four games went over. Chiefs scored 15 TD’s on 38 drives in their 4-0 start; in their last two games, only 18 of their 131 plays came on third down. Mahomes has averaged 7.5+ yards/pass attempt in all four games, but he was 0-11 LW on passes that went 30+ yards downfield.

Browns (2-2) @ 49ers (3-0)— Cleveland has had wildly divergent results, splitting its first four games; only one of their four games was decided by less than 15 points. Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games as a road underdog; they were outscored 48-14 in 2nd half of their two losses. 49ers scored 32 ppg in their 3-0 start; they ran ball for 427 yards in last two games. Under Shanahan, SF is 2-4 ATS when laying points at home. Niners lost last six post-bye games (0-6 ATS), with last four losses by 11+ points. Browns won three of last four games with the 49ers, with average total of 29; teams split pair of meetings here.

**Udog** · 10-01-2019, 07:58 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Thursday, October 3

LA Rams @ Seattle

Game 301-302
October 3, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
132.800
Seattle
131.666
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 1
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 2
49
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+2); Under

Sunday, October 6

Arizona @ Cincinnati

Game 455-456
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
121.000
Cincinnati
122.566
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 4 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+4 1/2); Over

Atlanta @ Houston

Game 467-468
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
130.329
Houston
132.480
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 5
49
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+5); Over

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Game 465-466
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
134.839
New Orleans
135.097
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
Even
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+3 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ NY Giants

Game 459-460
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
134.320
NY Giants
127.442
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-4 1/2); Over

Jacksonville @ Carolina

Game 457-458
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
129.588
Carolina
136.190
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 6 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
41
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-3); Over

Chicago @ Oakland

Game 453-454
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
134.054
Oakland
131.536
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 2 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 5
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+5); Over

New England @ Washington

Game 461-462
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
144.763
Washington
119.432
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 25 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 15 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-15 1/2); Under

Buffalo @ Tennessee

Game 469-470
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
131.290
Tennessee
136.988
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 5 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-2 1/2); Under

NY Jets @ Philadelphia

Game 463-464
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
119.201
Philadelphia
136.288
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 17
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 13 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-13 1/2); Under

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Game 451-452
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
131.724
Pittsburgh
134.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 4
43
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+4); Under

Denver @ LA Chargers

Game 471-472
October 6, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
124.822
LA Chargers
133.249
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 8 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 6
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-6); Under

Green Bay @ Dallas

Game 473-474
October 6, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
132.199
Dallas
133.772
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+3 1/2); Over

Indianapolis @ Kansas City

Game 475-476
October 6, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
132.496
Kansas City
139.635
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 7
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 11
57
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+11); Over

Monday, October 7

Cleveland @ San Francisco

Game 477-478
October 7, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
132.716
San Francisco
138.383
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 5 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 3 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-3 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 10-01-2019, 07:59 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 5
Matt Blunt

Week of September 30th

There were some interesting results from the two games covered in last week's piece, as the Chiefs/Lions game was the first to buck that 'under' trend of 2019 with a non-conference home underdog. Even still, that game needed a TD late in the contest by Detroit to sail 'over' the number (before KC scored again).

But it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55-40 wild win out at the Los Angeles Rams that was one that shocked many, but not if you caught the “Who's Not” part last week.

That topic touched on just how bad home favorites have been early in the year prior to a road game on TNF, and the Rams SU and ATS loss pushed home favorites in that pre-TNF road role to 2-10 ATS and 2-10 SU during the first five weeks of the year over the past three seasons. I discussed how there had been some big upset winners in there before, and as a 9-10 point underdog on Sunday, Tampa Bay added themselves to that list of big paydays for those that were ballsy enough to ride that trend.

No rest for the wicked though, as it's on to Week 5's potential spots. And while I did mention that I wasn't intentionally picking on L.A. Rams fans, just that their team kept finding themselves in these situational angles, Rams fans will find their team involved in this week's piece as well.

Staying away from Rams angles is going to have to wait at least another week!

Who's Hot

Playing on 'Unders' after a team scores 40 or more points

1-8 Over/Under since Week 15 of 2018

5-12 O/U since start of 2018 season when it's divisional rivals squaring off

In 2019 alone, this trend is 1-4 O/U overall, as we actually had nobody live in it this past Sunday. Interestingly enough too, is the lone 'over' (New England/New York Jets in Week 3) came after a team (New England) put up their 40+ points and didn't cash an 'over' ticket in the process. That came in their 43-0 win over Miami in Week 2, as that's a rare scenario in of itself.

But generally speaking, getting one side to put up 40 points typically cashes an 'over' ticket along with it, and we've got three different teams fitting this role for Week 5.

I'll begin with the Rams and Buccaneers, who each put up 40 or more points in that wild Sunday afternoon game yesterday. They are somewhat grouped together this week as well, as they are both out on the road, and both squaring off against division foes. Remember, since the start of last year, divisional games that fit this 40+ scenario have hit the 'under' at a 70% clip.

The Rams have that short week ahead of them as we already know, travelling north to Seattle for a big game with the Seahawks. A total of 49 is no slouch of a number for guys on a short week, and considering how many yards quarterback Jared Goff threw for on Sunday (517), and how many points the Rams scored (40) and allowed (55), it's easy to assume there will be plenty of love for the high side of this total as Thursday draws near.

Chances are we could see this number even climb a bit, but it won't be because of support from me if that's the case.

Goff's big day statistically was great, but first and foremost, LA's defense has to tighten things up to avoid putting Goff and the offense in that spot needing so many points. Granted, the three interceptions that Goff threw didn't help things, but getting the defense to turn around things on a short week isn't unfeasible. Can't imagine they took Tampa Bay too seriously given how that game played out, and that just won't be the case with a road divisional game against Seattle this week.

NFL prime time games have still been 'under' machines in 2019 despite a 2-1 O/U record the last three, and with how sloppy these short-week, TNF games can be, I do think going low on this total makes a lot of sense in general. Add in this great 'under' role, and I hope this number climbs.

Tampa Bay's the other team visiting a divisional rival in Week 5, as they take a trip to the Big Easy to face a New Orleans team off a big SNF win. The Saints defense completely wrapped up the Cowboys in that one, and there shouldn't be any worry about them taking Tampa lightly as a divisional foe, and after the offensive performance they put up in LA.

The Bucs total is a little lower at 47.5, and with the way the Saints are trying to win games now with Teddy Bridgewater as a “game manager” QB and the defense doing plenty of the heavy lifting, the 'under' generally makes sense here as well. There is more time to dig into a game like this to either confirm or pass on the low side of this total, but given the history of these 40+ point teams the following week, it's hard not to like going low.

The final team that fits this role in Week 5 of coming off a game where they scored 40+ are the Cleveland Browns. The Browns get the national spotlight treatment once again as they head to San Francisco for MNF, with the 49ers coming off a bye.

The bye week for the 49ers makes things a bit more tricky here as they've had two full weeks to prepare to attack this Browns defense, although the last three times it's been AFC vs NFC in this situational angle with one side coming off a 40+ effort, the 'under' is a perfect 3-0. That includes an 0-2 O/U record this year, with one of those games including the 49ers themselves in their 24-20 win over Pittsburgh last time out.

Who's Not

Backing teams ATS after scoring 40 or more points in their last outing

4-8 ATS (33%) since Week 14 of 2018 and 1-4 ATS (20%) in 2019

Sorry Rams fans, I know the first half of this piece could be taken as positive in terms of your defense turning things around in a few days, and they probably will. But recent history suggests that it probably doesn't turn out to be a SU victory for your team given what the point spread is (+1) and the ATS history the following week for these 40+ point scoring teams.

That being said, the ATS record might be 1-4 ATS this season the following week for these squads, but the SU record is 4-1 SU. All four of those outright winners off a 40+-point day were laying at least -6 in all of those wins though, and only the Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 2 win over Oakland was able to bring home the ATS cash. The virtual pick'em point spread here for the Rams/Seahawks game on TNF is a different situation in that regard, so we will just have to see how it plays out.

We already know that Tampa and Cleveland are the other two teams in this spot for Week 5, as both teams are catching a little more than a FG (Tampa +4.5, Cleveland +3.5) for their respective games. Given that the situation does look tougher for Cleveland on paper as it is – an undefeated opponent coming off a bye week and not playing a backup QB – this history does the Browns no favors as well, so we might see another prime time stinker from Cleveland this time next week.

The last five times this scenario has applied to a non-conference game, the team coming into that contest off a 40-point effort is just 1-4 ATS, a run that includes a 0-2 ATS record this season. The 49ers themselves couldn't get it done when they hosted Pittsburgh last time out, and neither could the Ravens in Week 2 when they hosted Arizona.

So Cleveland fans, don't get too over-hyped this week after a great win in Baltimore over the weekend, because we saw the impact a completely full bandwagon for your team can do in their Week 1 blowout loss.

**Udog** · 10-01-2019, 08:25 AM

NFL Week 5 odds: Book braces for public to come back strong on Chiefs at home vs Colts
Patrick Everson

Patrick Mahomes guided Kansas City to a last-minute TD and win at Detroit on Sunday. The Chiefs, now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, opened as 9.5-point home favorites for their Week 5 tilt against the Colts.

Week 5 of the NFL season has some intriguing matchups that are already seeing some line movement. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action for a quartet of contests, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)

Kansas City is among just three remaining unbeaten teams, though just barely after Week 4. The Chiefs (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) overcame an early 10-0 deficit at Detroit, then got a last-minute touchdown to win a shootout 34-30 as 7.5-point favorites Sunday.

Indianapolis looked surprisingly good the first three weeks of the season, following the stunning retirement of quarterback Andrew Luck. But in Week 4, the Colts (2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) trailed Oakland 14-0 early and never got closer than a touchdown in a 31-24 home loss as 5.5-point faves.

This matchup is in prime time Sunday night, and The SuperBook is bracing for public play on K.C.

“Kansas City was lucky to escape on the road in Detroit,” Murray said. “The Chiefs come home to face a Colts team off a very bad performance of their own in a home loss to the Raiders. Every parlay and teaser will close with K.C. next Sunday night.”

The Chiefs ticked up to -10 in the hour after this line went up, then shortly thereafter went back to -9.5.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)

Green Bay was in a good spot to remain unbeaten in Week 4, playing at home in the Thursday nighter. But in a back-and-forth battle, the Packers (3-1 SU and ATS) couldn’t outlast Philadelphia, losing 34-27 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Dallas was also in prime time and aiming to remain perfect in Week 4, playing under the Sunday night spotlight at New Orleans. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) couldn’t find points, though, losing a defensive slog 12-10 laying 2.5 points.

“This game is off the board as the Cowboys play the Saints,” Murray said early Sunday evening, noting that prior to the Cowboys-Saints kickoff, The SuperBook posted Dallas -4.5 against Green Bay. “Both teams were probably a little overvalued off their 3-0 starts. We will learn a lot about the Packers in this game.”

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)

Baltimore could have gained an early foothold on the AFC North, going off as 7.5-point home chalk against Cleveland on Sunday. However, the Ravens (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) gave up 30 second-half points in a 40-25 setback.

Pittsburgh lost QB Ben Roethlisberger to an elbow injury in Week 2 and is still seeking its first victory of the season. The Steelers (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) still have Week 4 work to do, as they host Cincinnati on Monday night. In Week 3 behind backup Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh nearly pulled a road upset of San Francisco, falling 24-20 as 6-point pups.

“If the Steelers lose to the Bengals on ‘Monday Night Football,’ the line will go up and the public will come in very hard on the Ravens here,” Murray said. “Either way, we will need the ‘dog pretty big.”

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (PK)

Defending NFC champion Los Angeles fell from the unbeaten ranks in stunning fashion, giving up a 50-plus burger as nearly double-digit Week 4 chalk. The Rams (3-1 SU and ATS) trailed Tampa Bay 21-0 midway through the second quarter, rallied within 45-40 midway through the fourth, but ultimately lost 55-40 giving 9 points at home.

Meanwhile, Seattle bounced back from a Week 3 upset home loss to a New Orleans team minus Drew Brees. The Seahawks (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) went to Arizona as 5.5-point favorites Sunday and exited with an easy 27-10 victory.

Both teams operate on a short week for this Thursday night NFC West clash.

“A nightmare game for the Rams’ defense against Tampa,” Murray said. “The public will likely look to back the Rams anyway. Our look-ahead number closed Rams -2.5.”

The game then reopened Sunday afternoon as a pick ‘em and moved to Rams -1 an hour later. Shortly thereafter, the line went back to pick.

**Udog** · 10-01-2019, 03:59 PM

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 5 odds: Wait to take on total in Bears-Raiders in London
Jason Logan

There’s likely going to be an overreaction to the Bears' QB situation, however, with the way Trubisky was playing (588 total yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 81 QBR) there’s not much separating him from Daniel right now.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL board each week.

With four weeks of football data under their belts, oddsmakers will begin tightening said belts with their weekly numbers. Value will be harder to sniff out, so timing your wagers to optimize your opinion is even more important.

Let’s punch these Bet Now/Bet Later games into our Covers Live App line move alerts in Week 5:

SPREAD TO BET NOW: L.A. RAMS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-2, 49)

Wild line movement has been the name of the game when capping this NFC West war for Thursday night. But, that’s what a 55-40 loss to the Bucs will do to your public appeal. The Rams opened as big as 1.5-point favorites for this primetime game but one-sided money on the Seahawks has flipped this spread over the fence and has Seattle giving two points at home.

If you’re not rattled by the WTF result against Tampa Bay, the time to bet Los Angeles is now. Oddsmakers expect the public to pile on the Rams come Thursday, which means this game could finish up closer to the pick’em come kickoff.

I understand where the early attraction is for Seattle: a primetime home game in the rain (expected) in front of the 12th Man against a QB in Jared Goff who struggles away from home. But, can we trust the Seahawks results through four weeks? They’ve squeaked out a win at home over Cincinnati, barely beat Pittsburgh without Ben Roethlisberger, lost to Teddy B and the Saints, and looked better than they were versus Arizona last Sunday. Those are some terrible defenses. But, then again, L.A. just gave up a double nickel to the Buccos.

If you’re riding the Rams, get ‘em while their hot… errr… cold.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5, 41)

In a battle of young backups making a name of themselves, second-year passer Kyle Allen and rookie QB Gardner Minshew headline this Week 5 non-conference clash in Carolina. The Panthers, who are 2-0 SU and ATS since Allen took over for the injured Cam Newton, are giving 3.5 points to the Jags but it looks like this spread could come down later in the week.

Plenty of books are discounting Carolina -3.5 with the juice, trying to attract some money on the home favorite and stay on this half-point hook. Jacksonville is also off back-to-back wins and covers and has cashed in for backers in three straight outings with Minshew making throws. This is, however, the Jaguars' second road game in a row and third in four weeks after a grueling climb up the mountain at Denver in Week 4.

The Panthers offense is simple enough with Allen at the wheel: two scoops of RB Christian McCaffery and if he’s not available to run or catch, look to TE Greg Olsen. That pair has combined for 25 targets on Allen’s 60 total pass attempts in the last two contests. Jacksonville has some tape on Allen after these starts but the status of CB Jalen Ramsey is up in the air, and he was missed dearly in the win at Denver Sunday.

If you like this home side, wait and see if you can get Carolina without that pesky half-point hook.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 48.5 ATLANTA-HOUSTON

At first glance, this game should produce about 1,000 points given all the offensive firepower on the field. But that’s just not the case for these squads this season. The Falcons and Texans are a combined 2-6 Over/Under so far in 2019 and this total, which opened at 49 points, is starting to shrink with money on the Under.

Houston has had trouble putting up big numbers at home this season, totaling only 23 points in its two stands inside NRG Stadium, including a quiet day from Deshaun Watson in Week 4’s loss to Carolina (he can explain the whole thing). The Texans turned to the running game in those matchups, picking up 136 yards on 22 carries last weekend and 126 yards on 30 carries versus Jacksonville in Week 2.

Atlanta has been a bust on offense – no matter the venue – averaging only 17.5 points to start the season. Matt Ryan has thrown six interceptions already (he had just seven total in 2018) and is under duress more than he’d like to be. The Falcons have fallen short of the betting total as visitors plenty of times in the past, going 14-20-2 O/U on the road since 2015 (59% Unders).

This number dipped as low as 48 at some books before action bought back the Over and moved the total to 49. I don’t see it hitting 50, so if you like the Under buy as big as you can now.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 41 CHICAGO VS. OAKLAND

The total for the first London, England game of the 2019 schedule is promising less-than-entertaining football. Oddsmakers have this number at 41 points with the Bears and Raiders doing battle at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday, and it's dropped as low as 40 at some markets.

Chicago will be without starting QB Mitch Trubisky, who left Week 4 with a dislocated shoulder, and forces the Bears to go with No. 2 Chase Daniel. There’s likely going to be an overreaction to this swap from public money, however, with the way Trubisky was playing (588 total yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 81 QBR) there’s not much separating him from Daniel right now.

The Raiders have a new weapon in RB Josh Jacobs, who sparked the Oakland attack in Sunday’s win at Indianapolis. He had 79 yards rushing and another 29 yards on two catches, and that will help keep the Chicago pass rush guessing in London. One other note about this international affair: the game is being played on artificial turf, and not the soft soccer pitches we’ve seen in past UK games. That will help with speed and surface integrity Sunday.

With Trubisky out and people poo-pooing the Silver and Black, wait and see if this total goes sub-40. Then, if you like the Over, “Benny Hill” it to your bookie to bet it.

**Udog** · 10-01-2019, 05:21 PM

301LA RAMS -302 SEATTLE
LA RAMS are 7-24 ATS (-19.4 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992.

451BALTIMORE -452 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 64-36 ATS (24.4 Units) in October games since 1992.

453CHICAGO -454 OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

455ARIZONA -456 CINCINNATI
ARIZONA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.

457JACKSONVILLE -458 CAROLINA
JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game in the last 3 seasons.

459MINNESOTA -460 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in the 1rst half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

461NEW ENGLAND -462 WASHINGTON
NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

463NY JETS -464 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 55-30 ATS (22 Units) after 2 straight overs since 1992.

465TAMPA BAY -466 NEW ORLEANS
TAMPA BAY is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after 2 straight overs in the last 3 seasons.

467ATLANTA -468 HOUSTON
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game in the last 2 seasons.

469BUFFALO -470 TENNESSEE
BUFFALO is 22-45 ATS (-27.5 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.

471DENVER -472 LA CHARGERS
DENVER is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.

473GREEN BAY -474 DALLAS
DALLAS are 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. since 1992.

475INDIANAPOLIS -476 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the last 2 seasons.

477CLEVELAND -478 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 32-11 ATS (19.9 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.

**Udog** · 10-01-2019, 09:15 PM

Tech Trends - Week 5

Thursday, Oct. 3

L.A. RAMS at SEATTLE (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Rams on 5-1 SU and spread run in reg season since late 2018. Russell Wilson 6-0 as home dog since 2012, however. Rams have won SU last three in series but Hawks have covered 4 of last 5 meetings. Seattle on 9-4 “over” reg season run.
Tech Edge: Slight to Seahawks and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Sunday, Oct. 6

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Road team has covered last five in series, Raves 3-0-1 vs. line last four at Heinz Field. If getting points note Steel has covered last six as dog.
Ravens, based on series trends.

CHICAGO vs. OAKLAND at Tottenham Stadium, London (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 3-13-1 last 16 as dog away from Coliseum. Oakland also “under” 5-2-1 last eight since late 2018. Bears on 10-1 “under” run. Chicago also 5-2 vs. spread last seven away from home.
“Under” and Bears, based on “totals” and team trends.

ARIZONA at CINCINNATI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cards 6-3-1 last ten as road dog since late 2017 (1-0 TY). Cincy 4-8 last 12 as home chalk. Bengals on 6-1-2 “under” run after Monday.
Cards and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

JACKSONVILLE at CAROLINA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Minshew now 3-0 vs. line as starter for Jags. Panthers 1-4 vs. spread last five at home, no covers last four as chalk. Jags on 6-3 “under” run.
Jags and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

MINNESOTA at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Vikes 1-5 vs. spread last six on road. Also “under” 16-6-1 last 23 since late 2017. G-Men 1-6 last seven as MetLife dog but those are Eli numbers; NY 2-0 SU and vs. spread with D Jones in lineup.
Slight to Giants and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NEW ENGLAND at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Belichick on 6-2 spread run since late 2018, also 11-2 “under” last 12 in reg season. Jay Gruden 3-7 vs. line since late 2018, and “over” 3-1 in 2019.
Patriots and "under,", based on team trends.

NY JETS at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Birds 1-8 vs. spread last nine at Linc. Philly also “over” 6-2 last 8 since late 2018. Jets on 3-9-1 skid vs. line since mid 2018.
Slight to Jets, based on team trends.

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs on 7-3 “under” run since late 2018. Teams have split last 8 vs. spread. Saints only one cover last six at Superdome.
Slight to “under” and Bucs, based on “totals” and team trends.

ATLANTA at HOUSTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs now on 4-14 reg season spread run on road since 2017. Texans on 9-4-1 spread run reg season since mid 2018 though have failed to cover in first 2 at home this term. Houston also “under” last five at NRG.
Texans and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

BUFFALO at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills 4-0-1 vs. spread last five on road. Buff interestingly 5-1 vs. spread last six after facing Pats. Bills also on 6-1 “under” run since late 2018 as well. Titans 4-7 last 11 vs. line since mid 2018, 1-3 last four as home chalk.
Bills and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

DENVER at LA CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Denver on 5-15 spread skid as visitor since late 2016. Broncos also on 11-2 “under” run. Last three “under” in series. Bolts just 2-8 last 10 as Carson chalk since LY.
“Under,” based on “totals” trends.

GREEN BAY at DALLAS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Dak has won and covered 4 of last 5 reg season games, 9-2-1 last 12 vs. line in reg season. Pack 10-19-1 as dog since 2013 but Rodgers absent for part of that stretch.
Slight to Cowboys, based on team trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at KANSAS CITY (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Chiefs 12-2 vs. spread in first five of games of seasons. Indy 3-1 vs. line TY and 6-2 last 8 reg season. Chiefs on 8-2 “over” run in reg season. Playoff rematch!
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

Monday, Oct. 7

CLEVELAND at SAN FRANCISCO (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Brownies 8-3 vs. spread last 11 on road, 10-5 as dog since last season. Niners 1-5 as chalk since LY, 3-6 last 9 at Levi’s.
Tech Edge: Browns, based on team trends.

**Udog** · 10-03-2019, 08:18 AM

by: Josh Inglis

SACK-O’-LANTERN

Last week we won a little money on Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans. The "King of Inconsistency" will possibly face off against Matt Barkley and the Buffalo Bills as a 3-point favorite. We aren’t going to put our winnings back on MarMar but will be hoping he and Barkley will be hitting the dirt early and often.

Although Mariota has yet to throw an interception this year, he has been sacked 17 times - fourth-most in the league. With Josh Allen still in concussion protocol, Barkley will have to face a Titans defense that is getting to opposing QBs 3.2 times a game while the Bills are allowing 2.5 sacks a game.

You may have to wait closer to game time to get this prop but when it opens, hit the Over 5.5 sacks (value at O/U 6.5 as well).

CARDIAC RUSSELL

In Week 3, Russel Wilson threw for over 400 yards at home versus the Saints secondary in the pouring rain. On Thursday, he’ll be back at CenturyLink Field facing an L.A. Rams defense that allowed 55 points to Jameis Winston (385 yards and four TDs) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Last year, Wilson tossed three TDs and ran for 92 yards on the road versus the Rams. With L.A. getting embarrassed last week, look for it to be tough sledding for the Seahawks’ running game versus a Rams run defense that still ranks eighth in DVOA.

With the Sean McVay & Co. able to put up points against a middle-of-the-pack Seattle defense, we’re taking the Over on Wilson’s 19.5 rushing yards and Over 30.5 pass attempts, as the Rams are averaging 37.5 pass attempts allowed through four games.

CASHING ON THE CARDS

Last week we mentioned how terrible the Arizona Cardinals have been at defending tight ends this year. Seattle’s Will Dissly hit the trifecta by going Over on his receptions, yards and scored a plus-money TD in the second quarter. This week Tyler Eifert will get his chance to pad the stats in Week 5’s edition of Cashing On the Cards.

The Cincinnati Bengals TE has seen at least five targets in three of his four games this year and will have a better time making more of his snaps as the Cardinals are averaging a passer rating of 118.4 to opponents – ahead of just the Dolphins. The Cincy offensive line got embarrassed on the national stage Monday night and will be a motivated to give Andy Dalton a little more time to pass.

We’re going back on the trifecta with Eifert’s unassuming totals: Over 2.5 receptions (-128), Over 30.5 yards (-114), and a touchdown anytime (+224).

OVER THEM MOUNTAINS

The Carolina Panthers have failed to hold a visiting team to under 17.5 points in eight of their last nine home games. On the other hand, Jacksonville Jaguars’ “Uncle Minshew” has led his offense to 46 points over their last two games: against the Titans’ No. 7 DVOA defense and last week in the thin air of Denver.

Don’t like trends? OK, we hear you. The Panthers put Pro-Bowler and starting DE Kawaan Short (83.7 PFF grade 2018) on IR and will be starting practice squader Brian Cox Sunday. Also, corner Donte Jackson, who has two INTs this year and is graded positively per PFF, is questionable with a groin injury that held him out last week. On top of this, the Panthers rank as the fourth-worst rushing DVOA defense.

We don’t have a good lean on the side or the total, but we are going to play the Over on Jacksonville's team total of 17.5 points in what is looking like a perfect weather game in Carolina.

WATCHING WILSON

Heading into Week 4, did you know who the Top-3 leaders in the league in rushing touchdowns were? Mark Ingram, Dalvin Cook and … second-year undrafted RB Jeff Wilson Jr. The San Francisco 49ers goal-line back is coming off a bye week which could really help bettors if he plays.

After scoring 30 touchdowns in his final two years at North Texas, Wilson Jr. leads the league in rushes inside the five-yard line and is second in rushes inside the 10.

Unfortunately, with the Week 4 rest, Tevin Coleman may return from injury and possibly push Wilson to be inactive versus the Cleveland Browns on Monday night. The Niners likely won’t dress four running backs, making things a little murkier than usual.

This is a profitable situation to monitor and worthy of your attention. If Coleman were to sit again, we are banging the Wilson anytime TD prop with confidence.

**Udog** · 10-03-2019, 09:39 AM

TNF - Rams at Seahawks
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Rams (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) were handed their first loss of the season in a surprising home setback to the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay dropped 55 points on Los Angeles in a 55-40 stunner at the L.A. Coliseum to win outright as nine-point underdogs. The Rams had allowed 49 points in their first three victories, but fell in a 21-0 second quarter hole and got as close as 45-40 with eight minutes remaining on a Marcus Peters interception return for a touchdown.

Unfortunately, the Rams couldn’t do anymore to pull off the monster rally as the Bucs scored the final 10 points, capped off by former Ram Ndamukong Suh returning a fumble for a score in the last minute of play. Los Angeles quarterback Jared Goff threw for 517 yards on 45 completions, but the former top pick was also intercepted three times as the Rams turned the ball over four times. Todd Gurley didn’t receive many carries due to the large early deficit, but the Rams’ running back scored a pair of touchdowns even though he only recorded five rushing attempts.

The Rams dropped only one home game in 2018, but fell to 1-1 at the Coliseum with the loss to the Buccaneers, who just one week earlier squandered an 18-point advantage in a one-point home defeat to the Giants. This marked the 15th time since the start of 2018 that the Rams scored at least 30 points and it is only the second time in this stretch that they lost when reaching that threshold as Los Angeles dropped a 45-35 decision at New Orleans for its first regular season loss in 2018.

The Seahawks (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) rebounded from a shocking home loss to the Saints back in Week 3 to cruise past the winless Cardinals, 27-10 as 5 ½-point road favorites. Seattle improved to 6-0-1 in its last seven trips to Glendale, as the Seahawks jumped out to a 20-3 halftime lead and never looked back.

Jadeveon Clowney returned a Kyler Murray interception 27 yards for Seattle’s first touchdown, while Russell Wilson hit tight end Will Dissly for the Seahawks’ only offensive score of the first half. Wilson threw for 240 yards and has not thrown an interception yet this season, while running back Chris Carson busted out for a season-high 104 yards.

Seattle owns a 2-0 record away from CenturyLink Field and to show how it impressive this road mark is for Pete Carroll’s team, look back at how they began the previous four seasons on the highway. In 2015, 2017, and 2018, the Seahawks lost each of their first two road contests, while splitting their opening two away affairs in 2016. Seattle didn’t cover its first true road game last season until Week 8 at Detroit, as the Seahawks are a perfect 2-0 ATS away from the Pacific Northwest in 2019.

HOME/AWAY SPLITS

The job the Rams have done away from Los Angeles under head coach Sean McVay in 2+ seasons is nothing short of remarkable. The defending NFC champions have won 16 of 19 road contests, including September victories over Carolina and Cleveland. The Rams have compiled a 3-1 SU/ATS record in the role of a road underdog since 2017, as the lone defeat came at Minnesota as one-point ‘dogs in Week 11 of the 2017 season, 24-7.

Seattle dropped its first September home game since 2009 in the 33-27 defeat to New Orleans back in Week 3, which was also the first loss at CenturyLink Field in the opening month under Carroll. Since 2014, the Seahawks are 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS at home in October, including a 1-5 ATS ledger in the favorite role.

NFC WEST ODDS

In spite of these teams owning 3-1 records, both the Rams and Seahawks sit behind the 3-0 49ers for first place in the NFC West. Los Angeles opened the season at 1/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $50) to claim its third consecutive division title according to the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas.

The Rams have slipped to 11/10 odds to finish in first place, while Seattle has gone from 5/2 odds prior to the season to 12/5 entering Week 5. By the way, San Francisco started the season at 7/1 odds and have improved to 2/1 odds as the Niners host the Browns on Monday night.

SERIES HISTORY

The Rams have won each of the past three meetings with the Seahawks, including the last two at CenturyLink Field. Seattle has actually covered four of the last five meetings since 2016, including in both matchups last season.

The Rams edged the Seahawks, 33-31, which was also a Week 5 affair, but Seattle cashed as 7 ½-point home underdogs. Gurley rushed for three touchdowns, while Wilson completed only 13 passes, but three went for touchdowns. Seattle led, 31-24 in the fourth quarter prior to Gurley’s third touchdown of the game to tie things up, then the Rams went ahead for good on a 39-yard field goal from Cairo Santos.

The second meeting at the Coliseum in Week 10 was another shootout as the Rams held off the Seahawks, 36-31. Seattle grabbed the cover as 10-point underdogs thanks to a late touchdown pass by Wilson with under two minutes remaining in regulation. Wilson threw three touchdown passes again, but Goff was equal to the task by posting 318 passing yards and two touchdowns, while Gurley put up 120 yards and a score. Seattle is looking to beat Los Angeles at home for the first time since 2016.

TOTAL TALK

After watching the ‘under’ easily connect in the first three Thursday Night games of the season, the ‘over’ (46 ½) rebounded in Week 4 as the Eagles and Packers combined for 61 points. Oddsmakers are expecting more points in the Week 5 midweek matchup between these teams and Chris David of VegasInsider.com offers up his thoughts on the total.

He said, “The ‘over’ has cashed in three straight games between these teams and that includes two tickets to the high side last season that had totals close in the fifties. The majority of the damage on the scoreboard during this span has come from the Rams, who have averaged 37 PPG and 425 YPG on offense. Not surprisingly, L.A. has won all three games. Goff has connected on over 70 percent of his passes in two of those victories while Gurley has run for 100-plus yards in two of the games and he’s accounted for seven touchdowns.”

“Even though the Rams posted 40 points and 518 total offensive yards last week in their embarrassing home loss to the Buccaneers, most pundits would tell you that McVay’s offense hasn’t looked sharp through four games. Despite that opinion, L.A. is still ranked sixth in scoring (29.2 PPG) and that unit has traveled well since the young head coach took over,” added David.

Los Angeles led the league in scoring away from home in 2017 with 32.8 PPG and they notched 25.9 PPG on the road in 2018. As visitors this season, they’ve scored 30 and 20 points and this week’s team total on the Rams is right around that average at 24 points.

Both clubs enter this game with identical 2-2 total records through four games. Seattle has been featured in a Thursday Night game each of the last four seasons and the ‘under’ has gone 3-1 while the Rams captured shootout victories in 2018 versus Minnesota (38-31) and in 2017 at San Francisco (41-39) on the short week.

CD connected on his total opinions last week in this segment and he believes we could see more points in this spot, at least from one team.

“A lot of folks are down on the Rams right now and deservingly so after they were embarrassed as heavy home favorites to Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Seattle cashed easily for bettors at Arizona and those memories don’t fade quickly. If you really break it down, L.A. has beaten three teams that might be in the playoffs plus the Bucs could easily be 3-1. Seattle, however, has three wins against teams with one combined victory,” said David.

“Similar to last week, Green Bay’s defense was the toast of the town prior to facing QB Carson Wentz and the Eagles. We saw what happened there and Philadelphia captured the outright win. Sticking with that approach, this will be the toughest test of the season for the Seattle defense. The Rams have notched 21 scores this season, ranked third in the league. Unfortunately, the touchdown-field goal ratio of 12:9 isn’t great. Still, I’m going to buy more sixes instead of threes on Thursday and play the Rams Team Total Over.”

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson points out that the strong home-field advantage the Seahawks have owned through the years may not be there anymore, “Seattle hasn’t been nearly as impressive in its 3-1 start as the three wins have come against teams that are a combined 1-10-1 this season. They lost to New Orleans at home with the Saints playing without Drew Brees and the once amazing home-field edge at CenturyLink Field has eroded, failing to cover in both home dates this season while on an 8-10-1 ATS run at home since the start of the 2017 season with seven straight-up home losses. The two home games this season were unusual the results that could have been reversed as Seattle won 21-20 vs. Cincinnati despite being out-gained 429-232, but then lost to the Saints with a 514-265 yardage edge.”

There has been an advantage through the years for the home team in these Thursday matchups, but Nelson notes how it has changed, “Home teams have had a clear edge on Thursdays in recent years warranting this line flipping from the Rams opening as a slight favorite to Seattle currently priced as the slight favorite. Thursday hosts are 36-20 SU and 34-19-3 ATS since the start of the 2016 season, although it is worth noting that three of four road teams have won on Thursday night this season with all four underdogs winning outright.”

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions – Jared Goff (LAR)
Over 23 ½ (-110)
Under 23 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Jared Goff (LAR)
Over 1 ½ (-150)
Under 1 ½ (+130)

Will Todd Gurley (LAR) score a touchdown?
Yes +110
No -130

Total Receiving Yards – Cooper Kupp (LAR)
Over 73 ½ (-110)
Under 73 ½ (-110)

Total Gross Passing Yards – Russell Wilson (SEA)
Over 252 ½ (-110)
Under 252 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Russell Wilson (SEA)
Over 1 ½ (-180)
Under 1 ½ (+150)

Total Rushing Yards – Chris Carson (SEA)
Over 69 ½ (-110)
Under 69 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Tyler Lockett (SEA)
Over 70 ½ (-110)
Under 70 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

The Rams opened up as 1 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook when lines were released prior to Week 4. However, the Seahawks have moved into the favorite role by laying one point, while the total sits at 49 ½.

**Udog** · 10-05-2019, 07:48 AM

IMPACT INJURIES AND NFL ODDS: WHO'S IN AND OUT IN WEEK 5
PATRICK EVERSON

Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen (concussion) was a full participant in Friday's practice, but he's still questionable at Tennessee. The Bills are +3, but could adjust to +2.5 if Allen starts and +3.5 if he sits.

As the NFL heads toward its 13-game Sunday slate, Friday’s injury report shed some light on the status of several key players. We go behind the counter to see how that information impacted the odds, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Bills: Quarterback Josh Allen (concussion) practiced Friday, but he’s still questionable at Tennessee. Buffalo is currently +3, with a total of 38.5. The SuperBook expects to move to +2.5 if Allen plays and to +3.5 if he sits. “It’s more of a significant move because of the key number,” Osterman said.

Packers: Wideout Davante Adams is out against the Cowboys with a toe injury, and running back Jamaal Williams will sit while in concussion protocol. The SuperBook made no moves off the Adams news and figured Williams would be out, so that was built into the opening line of Packers +4.5. Currently, Green Bay is +3.5, with a total of 47.

Cowboys: The offensive line will be without Tyron Smith (ankle), and fellow tackle La’el Collins (back) is questionable. Those concerns led only to an adjustment on the juice, with the Cowboys currently -3.5 (even) rather than the flat -110.

Colts: Indianapolis’ skill positions are dinged heading into the Sunday night game at Kansas City. Wideout T.Y. Hilton (quad) and running back Marlon Mack (ankle) are both questionable. The SuperBook expects both to play, but noted the line could adjust a half-point if Hilton sits out. Indy is +11, and the total is 56.

Chiefs: Tyreek Hill (shoulder) is out this week, and fellow wideout Sammy Watkins (shoulder/hamstring) is questionable. If Watkins sits, too, The SuperBook would tighten the line a half-point. The Chiefs are currently -11.

Bears: With Mitch Trubisky out after dislocating his left shoulder last week, Chase Daniel starts in London against the Raiders. But since Trubisky wasn’t playing particularly well, The SuperBook had no adjustment due to his absence. The Bears are -5.5, with the total at 40.5.

Patriots: Wideout Julian Edelman (chest) and running back Rex Burkhead (foot) are questionable but hardly a concern for The SuperBook, as New England faces winless Washington. “No effect. The Patriots have the weapons to fill in.” The Pats are laying 15, with a total of 42.

Giants: There was hope that running back Saquon Barkley would return this week, after sitting out the Week 4 win over Washington. But Barkley’s high ankle sprain will require at least another week to heal, and The SuperBook assumed he’d be out with its opening line of Giants +4.5. New York is now +5, with a total of 43.5.

**Udog** · 10-05-2019, 11:18 PM

Total Talk - Week 5
Joe Williams

We're on to Week 5 of the National Football League regular season, and we'll have our first game from London, as well as two more teams on a bye. The Chicago Bears-Oakland Raiders (40.5) will battle at the new Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium in a 1:00 p.m. ET start, which will be under the lights in jolly ol' England.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 4 6-9 6-9 5-10

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 26-37 25-37-1 31-31-1

The books made a killing in Week 4, and the under was a frequent play with nine of 15 games going under the total. That was a trend with the first-half and second-half lines, too, as offense was rather scarce in the fourth week of the season. Generally, that's good for the books as the public tends to bet more overs.

Division Bell

We saw five of the six division battles go the way of the 'under' in Week 4, including the primetime game on Monday between the two previously winless AFC North teams. In fact, outside of the Cleveland-Baltimore outlier, which saw the total cash by more than 17 points, the losing team in the other five division games had 10 or fewer points, and only one team in the six division battles scored more than 24 points.

Divisional Game Results Week 4
Cleveland at Baltimore Over (47.5) Cleveland 40, Baltimore 25
Washington at N.Y. Giants Under (48) N.Y. Giants 24, Washington 3
New England at Buffalo Under (41.5) New England 16, Buffalo 10
Seattle at Arizona Under (49) Seattle 27, Arizona 10
Minnesota at Chicago Under (38) Chicago 16, Minnesota 6
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh Under (45) Pittsburgh 27, Cincinnati 3

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 5 as of Saturday morning.

New England at Washington: 47 ½ to 42
Minnesota at N.Y. Giants: 46 to 43 ½
Indianapolis at Kansas City: 54 to 56
Jacksonville at Carolina: 42 to 40
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: 43 ½ to 45
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: 42 ½ to 44

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 5 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.

Minnesota at N.Y. Giants: Under 94%
Chicago vs. Oakland (London): Under 93%
N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia: Under 92%
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Over 91%
Atlanta at Houston: Over 87%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (77 percent) in the Buffalo-Tennessee matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in New England-Washington (77 percent) battle on Sunday.

Handicapping Week 5

Week 4 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 1-5
NFC vs. NFC 2-1
AFC vs. AFC 2-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-2

Week 5 is started with another high-scoring Thursday night battle, and a rarity for a divisional matchup, as the L.A. Rams-Seattle matchup went well 'over' (48.5) with 59 total points. Through 14 primetime battles the 'under' is now 10-4, but the 'over' has connected in each of the past two on Thursday.

Minnesota at N.Y. Giants: Since 2015 under head coach Mike Zimmer, the Vikings have posted 26.5 PPG in 15 games as a road favorite. Make a note that Minnesota scored 27, 37 and 29 points in this role last season with quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Buffalo at Tennessee: The Bills are the only team with a perfect 4-0 'under' record so far during the 2019 season, and the under has cashed in eight of their past nine games on the road, too.

Taking a look at the divisional battles for Week 5:

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The Steelers offense showed some signs of life against the Bengals on Monday Night Football, posting 27 points for their highest point total of the season. The 'under' has cashed in three of four games for the Steelers, including 2-0 in their two battles against AFC opponents. The defensive showing was more a lack of cohesiveness and effective play by the Bengals, who are decimated on the offensive line, rather than some sudden greatness of the Steelers. They allowed 24 or more points in each of the first three games, an average of 28.3 PPG.

The Ravens had a 40-burger hung on them by the Browns last week at home. After giving up just 27 points in the first two weeks, the Ravens defense was believed to be back. However, they faced the awful Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals, two teams with a combined record of 0-7-1 SU. In the past two games against the Chiefs and Steelers, the Baltimore defense has been pounded for a total of 73 points, or 36.5 PPG. The offense has been on fire regardless of opponent, scoring 23 or more points in each of their four games, or an average of 33.8 PPG. As such, the 'over' has cashed in three of four contests.

The Ravens have hit the under in each of the past three as road favorites in Pittsburgh dating back to 2000, too.

Other important divisional games with important trends to note:

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The Buccaneers rolled up an impressive 55 points in Sunday's road contest against the Rams, and they have registered 86 total points over the past two outings while coughing up a total of 72 points in the past two contests. In fact, the Bucs have allowed 31 or more points in three of their four contests overall. In their past 19 games on the road, the over has connected in 14 outings for Tampa Bay.

The Saints lost QB Drew Brees (thumb) during the Week 2 game in L.A. It was going to be disastrous, and a drop off in production with backupTeddy Bridgewater under center, right? Well, the Saints are 2-0 SU with 22.5 PPG, covering the spread in each while hitting the over once. It was a low-scoring 12-10 win over the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, and the Saints offense has scored 12 or fewer points in two of the past three. The jury is still out on what kind of offense the Saints are going to be until Brees is able to return. As far as trends, the under is 9-2 in the past 11 games against NFC opponents for the Saints, while going 9-4 in the past 13 overall contests.

Denver at L.A. Chargers: The third and final divisional matchup takes place in Southern California, as the Broncos hope the fifth time is a charm. Denver's offense has been moribund or most of the season, posting 16 or fewer points in the first three outings. However, they ended up dropping a season-high 24 points in last week's narrow two-point setback against the Jaguars. The 'over' has hit in each of the past two after a pair of under results to start the season. Denver's defense has allowed 24 or more points in three of four outings, but no more than 27 in any one outing.

The over hit in Week 1 for the Chargers, a game which went to overtime against the Colts. However, L.A. is on a three-game 'under' run with 20.0 PPG on offense and 16.7 PPG allowed on defense. The under has cashed in each of the past six meetings in California, while going 9-4 in the past 13 meetings overall between these two AFC West foes. The under is 9-2 in the past 11 divisional games overall for the Bolts, too.

London Calling

Oakland vs. Chicago (1:00 p.m. ET): The Raiders and Bears square off in the first of five international series games this season, and the first of four from London, England. Since the league began this venture in 2007, we've had 24 games played in the United Kingdom and the 'under' holds a slight 13-11 edge in those games but the low side did go 3-0 in 2018. The Bears played overseas in 2011 and captured a 24-18 over Tampa Bay while the Raiders are 0-2 in London, losing both games by double digits and that includes as 27-3 loss last season to Seattle.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with double-digit spreads for Week 5, with one road team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 42 to 56 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

New England at Washington (1:00 p.m. ET): The Patriots offense has rolled up 30 or more points in three of their four outings, but the 'over' has hit just once thanks to an amazing defensive effort by New England overall. The Patriots defense has allowed a total 13 points this season. Yes, they have yielded 27 total points on the season, but the 14 points scored by the Jets actually were by their defense, not by the offense. So the Patriots D has been on lockdown.

Don't look for New England's defense to give up much this week in D.C., either. QB Colt McCoy will take the reins of the offense this week looking to get the Redskins their first win despite being 15-point underdogs in their home building. The Redskins have averaged 16.5 PPG on offense, seeing their production just in every game from 27 to 21 to 15 to just 3 last week. The defense has given up 24 or more points in all four contests, and 31 or more in three of the outings. However, even a 34-7 result this week would hit an 'under'. It's hard to see the 'Skins scoring into double-digits against a lockdown Pats D, especially with a rusty McCoy at the helm.

Make a note that the 'under' has connected in each of the past nine games when New England is a double-digit road favorite, which includes its Week 2 result when they won at Miami by a 43-0 count.

N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. ET): The Jets have once against ruled out QB Sam Darnold (mononucleosis) for another game, so QB Luke Falk will make a second straight start. The Jets offense has been terrible, posting 11.0 PPG in three outings, and technically, just 6.3 PPG by the offense, as they have 14 points from their defense, as mentioned above. The unknown heading into this one is how well Falk will perform after having two weeks to prepare for the Eagles after a bye in Week 4. While the offense has been rather inconsistent so far, the defense has been consistent -- consistently worse, that is. They allowed 17 in the opener, 23 in Week 2 and 30 in Week 3.

Indianapolis at Kansas City (8:20 p.m. ET): Many felt that the Colts would see a drop-off in offensive production after QB Andrew Luck retired rather suddenly during the preseason. However, QB Jacoby Brissett has led the team to an impressive 23.5 PPG across the first four games, while the defense has coughed up 25.5 PPG so far. That's a great recipe for overs, going 3-1 so far. That's unlikely to change this week against the high-flying Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes. To make matters worse for the Colts, Mahomes didn't account for one touchdown in Detroit last week, and the Chiefs still won. He'll be angry and looking to get back on track under the lights. The over still cashed for the Chiefs in their 34-30 win last week, and they have 28 or more points in all four outings, hitting the over three times. They allowed 26 or more points in those three games when the over hit, too. Those tracking Sunday Night Football, we haven't seen an over ticket yet this season...so we could be due!

Under the Lights

Cleveland at San Francisco (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Monday Night Football game this week features the Browns, who finally discovered their offense in Baltimore last week, against a 49ers team coming off a 15-day absence due to their bye in Week 4 and an extra day to prepare for MNF.

The Browns are averaging 22.3 PPG while yielding 22.8 PPG through four games, although defensively that's a bit skewed after coughing up 43 in the Week 1 loss to the Titans. The 'over/under' has split 2-2, but the under is 2-0 in the two primetime showings for Cleveland.

The 49ers have hit for 24 or more points in each of their three outings, averaging 32.0 PPG. Defensively, they have yielded 20 or fewer points in each of their three games, although the combined record of their three opponents is 3-9 SU, so it remains to be seen whether San Francisco's defense is that much improved or just a product of their poor opponents to date.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thur., Oct. 3 - Mon., Oct. 7)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thur., Oct. 3 - Mon., Oct. 7)

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