NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thur., Oct. 3 - Sat., Oct. 5)

[Udog]

Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in key FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Early Starts
Purdue at Penn State (-28/54), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN: Boilermakers QB Elijah Sindelar and star WR Rondale Moore were injured on the same play in last week’s loss to Minnesota and won’t play here. Sindelar broke his collarbone and Moore injured a knee, so they’ll join a number of Purdue’s top defensive players and projected starting backs Tario Fuller and Richie Worship in missing the team’s Big Ten road opener. It’s homecoming week in Happy Valley, so we’ll see how effectively the Nittany Lions handle business against depleted Purdue will the peril of looking ahead to games against Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State the rest of this month an obstacle in covering such a large spread. Since 2010, the Boilers are 0-10 in games where they’ve been an underdog of 23 points or more but they’ve covered in six of those games. Penn State QB Sean Clifford threw for 398 yards and set a new school record by throwing fo 287 in the first half. Despite losing Trace McSorley and Miles Sanders, PSU is averaging 50 points per game after putting up a 55.5 clip through four games last season.

Maryland (-13.5/56) at Rutgers, 12 p.m. ET, BTN: The Scarlet Knights are under new leadership since Chris Ash caught a pink slip after Saturday’s 52-0 loss at Michigan. Offensive coordinator John McNulty was let go too, so Nunzio Campanile, a veteran of the New Jersey high school scene, will get his shot to impress in turning an interim gig into a full-time job by calling his own plays. Sophomore QB Art Sitkowski will redshirt and starter McLane Carter remains still sidelined by a concussion so redshirt freshman Johnny Langan, a Boston College transfer who won a state title under Campanile in ’17, will see his first action. The Terps are looking to rebound from last weekend’s 59-0 home loss against Penn State and play at banged-up Purdue next week, giving them an opportunity to rally after consecutive losses. QB Josh Jackson has developed a case of the yips after a fantastic start and probably can’t afford a third straight opening-drive interception. Tyrell Pegrome and redshirt freshman Tyler DeSue are waiting the turn, but first-year Maryland head coach Mike Locksley would certainly prefer if Jackson rebounds since he gives the team the best chance to win. Between a banged up offensive line and top WR D.J. Turner suspended, the Terps need him to avoid turnovers and serve as a stabilizing force on the road. RB Anthony McFarland was bottled up by Penn State but should get plenty of carries as he looks for his second 100-yard game of the season.

Oklahoma State (-10/63.5) at Texas Tech, 12 p.m. ET, FS1: Alan Bowman remains sidelined with an unfortunate collarbone injury that knocked him out after an excellent start and it looks like Jett Duffey will be the starter until he returns. Rice transfer Jackson Tyner started against Oklahoma but was ineffective while Duffey has more experience in Big 12 play and will look to help prevent Tech’s first 0-2 start in league play since 2015. The Cowboys bounced back from their tough loss at Texas by stifling K-State and look to avoid consecutive losses against the Red Raiders for the first time since 2002, back when Mike Gundy was still Les Miles’ offensive coordinator. Gundy’s latest QB, athletic freshman Spencer Sanders, will be challenged to make throws on the road to beat teams, so this will be another opportunity to demonstrate growth after struggling with consistency since conference play opened.

Iowa at Michigan (-4/47.5), 12 p.m ET, FOX: After destroying Rutgers, the Wolverines are back in a position where Jim Harbaugh’s team can disappoint everyone. It’s Homecoming week in Ann Arbor and a capable Hawkeyes team comes through town for the first time since 2012. That happens to be the only time Michigan has won in the last six meetings between these schools dating back to ’09. Kirk Ferentz is 7-5 against Michigan and beat Harbaugh 14-13 as a 21-point underdog back in ’15 to spoil a 9-0 start. Shea Patterson is on campus to prevent that type of loss and looks to salvage the season after a dreadful opening month. He’s expected to be the healthiest he’s been all season after being limited in September, but the key to a strong outing is going to keep Iowa’s AJ Epenesa, the nation’s top pass rusher, from disrupting his rhythm early. The Hawkeyes haven’t been at full strength but get top tackle Alaric Jackson from a sprained knee and safety Kaevon Merriweather back to help in the secondary.

Oklahoma (-33.5/66.5) at Kansas, 12 p.m. ET, ABC: Last year’s game shed the spotlight on what can happen when a team doesn’t respect their competition. Consider that a Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 pick and a number of future pros had to go up and down the field in order to survive last year’s Jayhawks 55-40. Pooka Williams ran for 252 yards on 15 carries and will therefore have the attention of Sooners defense looking to show continued improvement prior to next week’s Red River Shootout. Oklahoma owns the nation’s most prolific offense with Jalen Hurts at the controls, but covering this number or eclipsing this total will likely hinge on freshman Spencer Rattler, the nation’s top QB recruit. He’s likely to get snaps with the second unit down the stretch and will probably be facing the first-team defense with Les Miles seeking improvement from a group that gave up a season-worst 51 points at TCU last week. .

TCU at Iowa State (-3.5/44), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Horned Frogs won’t be back in Fort Worth until they host Texas on Oct. 26. In order to have a shot at playing for a Big 12 title, they’ll need to pull off a number of road upsets. While freshman QB Max Duggan has taken over as the starter, K-State transfer Alex Delton has experience playing in Ames and should see time. Duggan is an Iowa native returning home and was recruited by the Cyclones. Top TCU corner Julius Lewis will make his debut opposite fellow senior Jeff Gladney, boosting one of the conference’s top secondaries. WR TreVontae Hights is also due back after missing last week’s rout of KU. The Cyclones come off a 23-21 loss at Baylor and have wasted a strong defensive effort in losing tight games against rival Iowa and the Bears in last week’s Big 12 opener. Iowa State DE JaQuan Bailey and center Colin Newell could miss this contest. The Frogs have won eight of 10 meetings in this series, last falling in Ames 14-7 in 2017. Rain could play a significant role in this contest, so keep an eye on the forecast.

Boston College at Louisville (-5/60.5), 12:30 p.m. ET, ACCN: The loser of this one will take a second conference loss before facing Clemson, which each of these teams is forced to do later this month. It’s likely that whoever drops this game will miss out on a bowl game given their remaining schedules, which would be an easier pill to swallow for Louisville first-year head coach Scott Satterfield on the heels of a 2-10 season than it would be for Steve Addazio in a season where BC has the talent to win eight games for the first time since ’09. Losing to Kansas at home was a wakeup call and last week’s home loss to Wake Forest was disappointing, but the wrong team appears favored here. The Cards have to prove this season’s improvement against the run isn’t smoke and mirrors and must do so against standout backs AJ Dillon and David Bailey. Dillon ran for 272 yards and four touchdowns in his first visit to Louisville in leading BC to a 45-42 win. The Eagles won last season’s matchup 38-20. The ‘Ville likely won’t have top QB Puma Pass available due to a foot injury, but backup Malik Cunningham looks to be over an ankle issue and should start.

Late-night Snack
Washington (-14.5/52) at Stanford, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Cardinal hope to avoid becoming the first Pac-12 team to lose three conference games this season by pulling off an upset in their first game being this heavy an underdog since beating then No. 1 Oregon in Eugene as a 20-point underdog in 2012. Unfortunately for Stanford, constant shuffling along on the offensive line is expected to remain an issue. The left side of the line is comprised of freshmen. Junior QB KJ Costello is sidelined by a thumb injury, so sophomore Davis Mills will get another start after helping beat Oregon State last week with his arm in addition to a touchdown reception. The Huskies have looked impressive since losing at home 20-19 to Cal and will have all their remaining games against the league’s top teams in Seattle. We’ll get to see what killer instinct this group has since walking onto the Farm and winning a game by two-plus touchdowns just because you’re expected to is easier said than done. QB Jacob Eason has thrown 10 touchdown passes and completed over 70 percent of his attempts. He went 24-for-28 in his lone start at BYU, finishing with 290 passing yards and three touchdowns. Chris Petersen is 2-3 against David Shaw and Stanford since taking over at U-Dub and is looking for back-to-back wins in the series for the first time.

[Udog]

Auburn at Florida
October 4, 2019
By Brian Edwards

No. 7 Auburn Tigers at No. 10 Florida Gators
Venue/Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Auburn -2.5, Total 48.5

For the first time since 2011, Florida and Auburn will finally collide again Saturday afternoon at The Swamp in Gainesville. It’s easily the toughest ticket for a UF home game since the Tim Tebow Era ended in 2009.

Both teams are undefeated and looking to stay that way with brutal schedules on the horizon in the coming weeks. Both are also playing new quarterbacks that have thrown some life into their respective offenses.

As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Auburn (5-0 straight up, 5-0 against the spread) installed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5. The Gators were +120 on the money line. The Westgate SuperBook was showing the best price on Auburn at -2.

Auburn owns an 8-5-1 spread record in 14 games as a road favorite during Gus Malzahn’s seven-year tenure. Meanwhile, UF won outright in its only home underdog spot since Mullen took over, beating LSU 27-19 last year as a 2.5-point home ‘dog. The Gators are 3-5 ATS in eight games as home ‘dogs since 2009.

Auburn won in come-from-behind fashion in its season opener, rallying to a 27-21 win over Oregon at Jerry World in Arlington. The Tigers took the cash as four-point favorites.

Since then, Malzahn’s bunch has won 24-6 vs. Tulane, 55-16 vs. Kent State, 28-20 at Texas A&M and 56-23 vs. Mississippi State. Auburn is one of only four schools with 5-0 spread records (the other three are down below in Bonus Nuggets).

Mississippi State got its clock cleaned on The Plains from start to finish last Saturday night. Auburn, which surprisingly went from a double-digit favorite down to -8 or -7.5 just before kickoff, raced out to a 21-0 lead in the first six minutes and one second of action. By intermission, the Tigers had a commanding 42-9 advantage.

Auburn racked up 580 yards of total offense and converted 6-of-10 third-down opportunities. True freshman QB Bo Nix was sensational, connecting on 16-of-21 passes for 335 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. He also rushed for 56 yards and one TD on only seven attempts.

JaTarvious Whitlow ran for 55 yards and three TDs on 10 carries. Seth Williams had eight receptions for 161 yards and two TDs, while Anthony Schwartz had two catches for 67 yards. Schwartz, WR with big-time wheels, also ran for 25 yards and one TD on three totes.

Nix, the five-star recruit, was in for spring practice and won the job in August over redshirt freshman Joey Gatewood. Nix passed my “eye test” right away against Oregon, especially with his work on the game-winning drive. Trailing 21-20 and in field-goal range, Nix decided to take a shot deep and found Williams with a 26-yard scoring strike with only nine seconds remaining.

Obviously, this prevented Auburn from depending on a kicker to boot a field goal from more than 40 yards out to win. Most important for our purposes, though, it hooked up Auburn backers with a winner as a four-point ‘chalk.’

For the season, Nix has completed 57.6 percent of his throws for 980 yards with a 7/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He threw both picks against the Ducks and has five TD passes without an interception in AU’s last four games. Nix, who has improved every week and will most likely continue to do so, has 173 rushing yards, two TDs and a 4.9 yards-per-carry average.

Williams has emerged as Nix’s favorite target, pulling down 17 receptions for 289 yards and four TDs. Eli Stove has 18 catches for 177 yards and two TDs, while Will Hastings has nine grabs for 148 yards and one TD. Schwartz, who missed the first two games after breaking a bone in his hand in early August, has produced five receptions for 110 yards and 82 rushing yards and two TDs on just four carries.

Whitlow has been handline the bulk of the carries on the ground, rushing for 463 yards and seven TDs while averaging 5.0 YPC. Kam Martin has 145 rushing yards and two TDs with a 5.0 YPC average.

AU’s offense is ranked 14th in the nation in rushing yards, averaging 251.8 yards per game. The Tigers are ranked 24th in scoring with their 38.0 points-per-game average.

Auburn defensive coordinator Kevin Steele has done outstanding work with his unit since taking this job in 2016. The Tigers are ranked 19th in the country in run defense and 22nd in scoring ‘D’ (17.2 PPG).

Florida (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) opened the season with a 24-20 non-covering win over Miami down in Orlando. After an open date, the Gators beat up on UT-Martin by a 45-0 count as 44.5-point home favorites. They lost two-time, second-team All-SEC cornerback CJ Henderson to an ankle sprain against the Skyhawks, however.

Henderson has missed the last three games, but he’s good to go against Auburn. Truth be told, Henderson probably could’ve played last week vs. Towson and maybe even against Tennessee two weeks ago, but Mullen wisely held him out to be 100 percent vs. Auburn. Likewise, UF’s other preseason All-American, senior DE Jabari Zuniga, hasn’t played since injuring his ankle in the second half of a 29-21 win at Kentucky on Sept. 14. Zuniga is ready to go this week and probably could’ve played last week, too. Zuniga, a third-team All-SEC selection in 2018, had three sacks in UF’s first three games.

In Week 3, Florida saw starting QB Feleipe Franks go down with a dislocated ankle in the third quarter at Kentucky. The injury required season-ending surgery the following week.

Trailing 21-10 going into the fourth quarter, back-up QB Kyle Trask rose to the occasion. He sparked the UF offense to three TD drives in the fourth quarter of a 29-21 comeback win as a 9.5-point road ‘chalk.’ With 12:41 remaining, Trask ran left on the option and made a smooth pitch at the last second to LaMical Perine who strutted his way into the end zone for an eight-yard TD scamper.

Down 21-16 after a failed two-point conversion, Mullen called a QB draw for Trask and the middle was open for a four-yard TD run. The Gators failed on another two-point attempt and led 22-21, but Kentucky’s Chance Poore missed a short field goal wide right.

On a third-down play with Kentucky set to use its final timeout and get the ball back if it could stop UF short of a first down, Mullen called a sprint sweep to Josh Hammond. The senior WR found a crease and busted it 76 yards for a TD with 33 ticks left.

On Sept. 21 at home vs. Tennessee, Trask made his first start since his freshman year of high school. He was a back-up at the prep level behind Houston star QB D’Eriq King. Trask responded by hitting Kyle Pitts for a 19-yard scoring strike on the game’s opening drive.

Florida went to halftime with a 17-0 lead on the Volunteers. Trask put the Gators in front 24-3 with a 29-yard TD pass to Freddie Swain midway through the third quarter. Although he did throw a pair of second-half interceptions, Trask completed 20-of-28 passes for 293 yards in the 34-3 win over UT as a 13-point home favorite. His 293 passing yards were the most by a QB since Mullen took over (more than Franks in his 16 starts).

Trask has connected on 51-of-66 passes for 698 yards with a 5/3 TD-INT ratio. He also had a pair of TD runs. Unlike Franks, he makes quick decisions and gets the ball out fast, and that’ll be key against Auburn’s stout defensive line.

UF’s weakness is its offensive line, so that matchup could be a major issue for the Gators. Mullen will need to get creative with his play-calling and do a masterful job in that department or Trask could take a lot of big hits vs. Auburn.

Trask has provided a major upgrade at the QB position, and he’s blessed with UF’s best and deepest group of WRs in a decade. Van Jefferson has 18 catches for 248 yards and one TD, while Trevon Grimes has 15 catches for 231 yards. Pitts is emerging as one of UF’s most improved players and one of the SEC top tight ends. He has 17 receptions for 189 yards and three TDs.

Hammond (14-176), Tyrie Cleveland (10-167-1 TD) and Swain (8-134-2 TDs) are also factors in the passing game. However, the explosive and versatile Kadarius Toney remains ‘out’ with a wrist injury sustained against UT-Martin.

Perine hasn’t had any room to navigate yardage on the ground. He’s been limited to 198 rushing yards and a 3.7 YPC average, but it’s not on him and he does have three rushing TDs. The senior RB also has 14 catches for 78 yards and one TD.

UF is ranked No. 89 in the country in rushing yards. The Gators are No. 29 in passing yards and No. 43 in scoring with their 34.0 PPG average.

Florida’s defense gets its two best players back and even with Zuniga and Henderson missing five combined games, Todd Grantham’s unit is ranked fifth in the nation in scoring defense (8.8 PPG). The Gators are 18th in the country in total defense, No. 17 in run ‘D’ and No. 30 in passing defense.

UF senior LB David Reese has a team-high 36 tackles that ranks him fifth in the SEC. He has one sack and one tackle for loss. DE Jonathan Greenard is in a first-place tie with South Carolina DT Javon Kinlaw for the SEC’s lead in sacks with four. Greenard, the transfer from Louisville, has 21 tackles, 1.5 TFL’s, four QB hurries, three passes broken up, one forced fumble and one interception.

The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for Auburn, 1-0 in its lone road assignment as the 48 combined points at Texas A&M inched ‘over’ the 47.5-point total. The Tigers’ games have averaged combined scores of 55.2 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for the Gators, 4-0 in their home games. Their games have averaged combined scores of 42.8 PPG.

Auburn has won three games in a row in this rivalry, including a 17-6 home win in 2011 and a 20-17 win at UF in 2007. In fact, the Tigers are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings dating back to 2001.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

Bet and Collect Podcast

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- For what it’s worth, Florida was a four-point favorite vs. Auburn at most books this summer in Games of the Year lines.

-- Speaking of Games of the Year, the Westgate SuperBook released its updated lines earlier this week. UF is a 14-point underdog next week at LSU. Also in Week 7, Oklahoma is a 12.5-point favorite vs. Texas. If that line hold and keeps the Sooners as double-digit ‘chalk,’ it’ll leave Tom Herman as a double-digit underdog. In that role as a head coach at both Houston and Texas, Herman is 5-0 ATS with four outright victories. The Gators are 10-point underdogs for their Nov. 2 showdown vs. Georgia in Jacksonville. They’re 14.5-point home ‘chalk’ vs. FSU in the regular-season finale.

-- Other notable Games of the Year from The Westgate: LSU -9.5 vs. Auburn, Alabama -12.5 vs. LSU and Alabama -11 at Auburn.

-- Florida is 13-3 SU at home vs. Auburn since 1973. The home team has won 22 of 30 head-to-head meetings in this rivalry since 1976. H/T to Phil Steele for both of those factoids.

-- UF-Auburn will take place 10 days shy of the 25-year anniversary of a showdown in The Swamp on Oct. 15 of 1994. Bo Nix’s father, Patrick Nix, found Frank Sanders for a TD pass in the final minute to rally Auburn past the top-ranked Gators in Gainesville.

-- Former Florida LB Kylan Johnson is thriving at Pittsburgh after leaving the Gators via the grad-transfer route. Johnson has 20 tackles, four sacks, two TFL’s, one forced fumble and one PBU. The Panthers are 3-1 both SU and ATS since losing their season opener 30-14 to Virginia at Heinz Field. The only loss during that span is a 17-10 defeat at unbeaten Penn State. Pat Narduzzi’s squad has won four games in a row over Duke both SU and ATS, but it is an underdog in Durham on Saturday. Pitt junior starting QB Kenny Pickett has been upgraded to ‘probable’ after a shoulder injury kept him out of last week’s 17-14 win over Delaware as a 27.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The Panthers are 13-6 ATS as road underdogs during Narduzzi’s five-year tenure. Since 2012, Duke is 19-15 ATS as a home ‘chalk’ despite limping to a 1-5 ATS mark in six such spots last season. As of Friday, most books had the Blue Devils favored by five points for this 8:00 p.m. Eastern kickoff on the ACC Network.

-- Duke senior QB Quentin Harris has an 18/3 career TD-INT ratio and nine rushing touchdowns.

-- Northwestern, a 7.5-point road underdog at Nebraska, is 28-10 ATS as a road underdog since 2008. Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten, six of eight meetings with the Wildcats have been one-possession games, and five of those contests were decided by three points or less. Also, Northwestern is 4-0 ATS in the four games played in Lincoln.

-- Colorado head coach Mel Tucker told the Denver Post Monday that star WR Laviska Shenault will be game-time decisions for Saturday’s home game vs. Arizona. Shenault was a fourth-team All-American in 2018 despite playing in only eight games. He had 86 receptions for 1,011 yards and six TDs last year, in addition to 115 rushing yards and five TDs with a 6.8 YPC. Colorado senior DT Mustafa Johnson, who had 7.5 sacks and 16 QB hurries in 2018, has been downgraded to ‘doubtful’ due to an ankle injury. Arizona QB Khalil Tate (hamstring) and RB J.J. Taylor (ankle) both missed last week’s 20-17 home win over UCLA, and both remain ‘questionable’ against the Buffaloes.

-- UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is ‘questionable’ vs. Oregon State. ‘DTR’ has thrown for 1,253 yards and has an 11/6 TD-INT ratio for the Bruins, who are 4-13 since hiring Chip Kelly.

-- Stanford QB K.J. Costello is ‘out’ again this week vs. Washington due to a thumb injury. The Huskies had been favored by 16.5 points for most of the week, but the number dropped to 15 or 14.5 by Friday afternoon. The Cardinal is 4-1 both SU and ATS as a home underdog during David Shaw’s nine-year tenure, but let me be clear that that’s not an endorsement in this spot.

-- Akron, the only team in the nation with a 0-5 ATS record, has an open date this weekend ahead of an Oct. 12 home tilt vs. Kent State.

-- Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, FIU and Vanderbilt are 0-4 ATS.

-- The four schools with 5-0 spread records include Auburn, Oklahoma State, Louisiana and SMU. Meanwhile, Washington, Wyoming and Ohio State are 4-1 versus the number.

-- Purdue first-team All-American WR Rondale Moore (leg) is ‘out’ of Saturday’s game at Penn State. Junior QB Elijah Sindelar had surgery earlier this week to repair his broken collarbone. He is ‘out’ indefinitely, perhaps for the rest of the season.

-- The ‘over’ is 5-0 for Charlotte and SMU, 4-0 for LSU. On the flip side, the ‘under’ is 4-0 for Tulsa, East Carolina, Old Dominion and San Diego State.

-- TCU is 19-8-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2005. The Horned Frogs are 3.5-point ‘dogs at Iowa State for a noon Eastern kick on ESPN2.

-- Rutgers QB McLane Carter is ‘out’ again this week at home vs. Maryland. Johnny Langan will start for the Scarlet Knights against the Terrapins, who are 13.5-point road favorites. According to a report from Football Scoop, former Rutgers HC Greg Schiano resigned as New England Patriots defensive coordinator in March because he informed Bill Belichick that boosters at his former school told him he’d be the top target if/when Chris Ash was fired. Since Schiano reportedly wants his old gig back, he and Belichick agreed that it wouldn’t work with the Patriots if he planned on leaving the club in November or December to return to New Jersey.

-- Boise State, a 23-point road favorite at UNLV, is 41-17-1 in its last 59 games as a road favorite. The Broncos have had two weeks to prep for the Rebels, who are 3-7 ATS in 10 games as home underdogs during Tony Sanchez’s tenure. Although UNLV QB Armani Rogers (leg injury) has been upgraded to ‘probable,’ Sanchez has named redshirt freshman Kenyon Oblad as his starting QB vs. BSU.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 6
Joe Williams

College Football Week 6 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 33-15
Against the Spread 24-24

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 26-22
Against the Spread 25-23

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 18-30

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 327-65
Against the Spread 195-190-7

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 272-116
Against the Spread 184-197-7

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 179-209-6

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Virginia Tech (+14, ML +425) at Miami-Florida, 42-35
Stanford (+13, ML +425) vs. Washington, 23-13
Texas Tech (+9.5, ML +310) vs. Oklahoma State, 45-35
Georgia State (+6.5, ML +200) vs. Arkansas State, 52-38

The largest favorites to cover
Wisconsin (-35) vs. Kent State, 48-0
Florida International (-27.5) vs. Massachusetts, 44-0
LSU (-27.5) vs. Utah State, 42-6
Missouri (-25) vs. Troy, 42-10

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- Navy surprised Air Force in Annapolis, 34-25, putting a step forward in their pursuit of the Commander's-In-Chief Trophy. The Midshipmen are now 3-1 SU/ATS while scoring at least 34 points in three of their four outings. ... South Florida finally found someone they could beat. The Bulls went to Connecticut and hammered the Huskies 48-22 for their first win against an FBS opponent this season. USF is now 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS, while hitting the 'over' in three consecutive outings. ... One of the best games of the day was the Tulsa-SMU battle in Dallas, well, at least if you weren't holding an 'under' ticket. See bad beats below. The Golden Hurricane led the ranked Mustangs 30-9 after three quarters, but SMU stormed back and forced OT, 30-30. Tulsa missed three field goals and had an extra point blocked, including a missed FG in OT, losing 43-37 in triple-overtime. The Mustangs are already bowl eligible at 6-0 SU, while the non-cover was their first of the season. The 'over' has also hit in all six of their outings. ... UCF lost at Cincinnati, taking their second loss of the season. There will be no national champion talk this season. After opening 3-0 SU/ATS, the Knights are 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS over the past three outings.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Virginia Tech was all over Miami-Florida like a bad rash, but the Hurricanes wouldn't quit. The Hokies were up 28-0 at one point, but the Hurricanes outscored the Hokies 35-7 to tie the game on a 62-yard touchdown run with 3:16 to go in regulation. Oddly enough, head coach Manny Diaz elected to go for two, down 35-27, making it 35-29 with 4:55 to go. After a touchdown just 1:39 later, all they needed was an extra point to go into the lead and PK Bubba Baxa misfired, keeping the game tied. The Hokies drove down the field in short order for the go-back-ahead TD, and held out at the goalline at the other end for a surprising good game. ... Pittsburgh fired out to a 26-3 lead at Wallace Wade in Durham, but Duke fought all the way back to take a 30-26 lead with 1:29 to go. However, the Panthers answered right back with a 26-yard TD pass to go ahead 33-30 in a great battle. ... North Carolina picked up a 38-22 road victory at Georgia Tech, squaring their record at 3-3 SU, snapping a three-game skid. They're also 4-2 ATS on the season. The Ramblin' Wreck are a great team to fade, as they're 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS.

BIG TEN

-- Michigan held off Iowa 10-3 in a low-scoring battle at the Big House. After opening the season 0-3 ATS, the Wolverines have posted a 2-0 SU/ATS mark while outscoring Rutgers and Iowa 62-3. ... Illinois is on a three-game skid, and they're 1-3 ATS across the past four outings following their 40-17 loss as 14-point underdogs at Minnesota. The Golden Gophers moved to 5-0 SU, and they're 2-0 ATS over the past two after going 0-2-1 ATS in the first three. ... Ohio State continues to thrash all comers. They started off a bit sluggish, but pulled away from Michigan State by a 34-10 score. After failing to cover in their opener against FAU the Buckeyes have covered five straight games. They also allowed 21 points to the Owls in that opener, but just 32 total points over the past five outings since. ... Wisconsin rolled to another shutout win, this time against Kent State. The Badgers are No. 1 in total yards allowed (182.0), passing yards allowed (131.0) and points allowed (5.8), while ranking third in the nation in rushing yards allowed (51.0). More importantly for bettors, they're 4-1 ATS.

BIG 12

-- Oklahoma State was never able to get off on the right foot at Texas Tech. The Cowboys opened the season 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS in the first five outings. The 45 points allowed was a season-high, and the 'over' result snapped a 3-0 under run for OSU. ... Head coach Matt Rhule has Baylor off to a 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS start after hammering Kansas State, 31-12. The Bears were one-point favorites, but this result was never in doubt. The 'under' has connected in three in a row for the Bears, too. ... Iowa State rolled up an impressive 49-24 win over TCU, moving to 3-2 SU/ATS. The Cyclones have alternated wins and losses all season, and over and under results. When they win, the game goes over, when they lose, under. If the pattern continues, they'll lose outright and go under at West Virginia next time out.

CONFERENCE USA

-- Old Dominion opened the second quarter with a field goal to take a 3-0 lead against Western Kentucky. After that, the Hilltoppers rattled off the final 20 points for the road win and 'under' result. After a home loss to FCS Central Arkansas, WKU is 3-1 SU/ATS, including 2-0 SU/ATS in two outings on the road. The 'under' is also 2-0 in WKU's two road contests. ... FIU stepped out of conference and routed Massachusetts, 44-0. Apparently the Golden Panthers want to join a conference playing only New England-area teams. They're 2-0 SU against UNH and UMass, and 0-3 SU/ATS against everyone else. ... UAB outlasted Rice 35-20 in a game marred by a lengthy weather delay. The Blazers rebounded from their shocking 20-13 loss at WKU to move to 3-0 SU at home, 2-0 ATS in Birmingham against FBS foes.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Toledo held off Western Michigan, 31-24, as the Rockets rolled to 3-0 SU/ATS at home and 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in two outings on the road. The 'under' is also 3-0 in Toledo's three games at home, and the 'over' is 2-0 in their two road contests. ... Ohio held off Buffalo in overtime, 21-20. While the Bobcats earned the win, Bulls side bettors hung on for the cover. Despite OT, 'under' (51.5) bettors still managed to cash a ticket, too. ... Central Michigan went for a 42-16 win over Eastern Michigan, moving to 3-0 SU/ATS at home, and 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS on the road. The 'over' is also 3-0 in the three home games for the Chips this season.

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- Boise State continues to roll along, staying in the driver's seat in the Group of Five race. They rolled over UNLV by a 38-13 score, barely covering for those who laid as much as 24.5. The good news is that this result was a cover at most shops, although this was a bad beat (see below). The Broncos are 5-0 SU/3-1-1 ATS, with the 'under' cashing in three of the past four. ... San Jose State picked up a 32-21 win over New Mexico, picking up a third win, or halfway to bowl eligibility. More importantly, the Spartans have covered three in a row while the 'under' is 4-1 this season. ... Colorado State fell at home by a 24-10 score to San Diego State, as the Aztecs continue to be road warriors. They're 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS at home, and 3-0 SU/ATS on the road. Total bettors love SDSU, too, as the 'under' is a perfect 5-0 on the season. ...

PAC-12

-- California tumbled in a low-scoring game at Oregon, the conference's only real chance at a playoff team at this point, and even that seems rather remote. The Ducks are 4-0 SU since their lost to Auburn, while the 'under' is 4-1 overall on the season. The Bears opened 4-0 SU, but lost QB Chase Garbers to injury. It's been downhill since, going 0-2 SU. Total bettors love Cal, as the 'under' is 5-1 in their six games overall. ... Oregon State has flown under the radar a bit, but they have a rather powerful offense. They moved to 2-3 SU, but have rattled off four covers in a row, after winning 48-31 at UCLA. The Beavers have scored at least 28 points in all five outings. ... Stanford surprised Washington 23-13, ragging the clock and playing keepaway all evening. The Cardinal have won consecutive games for the first time this season, improving to 3-3 SU, and their cover was the first since a 17-7 win over Northwestern on Aug. 31, a cover that should have never been (remember that bad beat?!?!)

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Florida might not be getting it done in pretty fashion, but they're getting it done. The struggles of Auburn in the passing offense department finally caught up with them. The Gators won 24-13 in a low-scoring game at The Swamp, as the Gators moved to 6-0 SU/3-3 ATS. They are 0-2 ATS in true road and neutral-site games, but 3-0 SU/ATS in three home games against FBS opponents. The 'under' is 5-1 in six games overall for the Gators. Next up is a trip to LSU, who improved to 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS, including 4-0 ATS in four games against FBS opponents. Their 'under' result on Saturday snapped a 4-0 'over' streak. ... Georgia had a 43-14 win at Tennessee, but it was closer than the score would indicated. It was just 26-14 at halftime, and the Vols were down only 29-14 after three quarters. Then, the fourth quarter happened (see below).

SUN BELT

-- Georgia State won at home as a near-touchdown underdog, topping Arkansas State 52-38. The Panthers are 3-2 SU with one loss in triple-overtime, and they're 2-1-2 ATS overall with four 'over' results. The Panthers are a fun team to bet. ... South Alabama lost 20-17 in overtime against Georgia Southern, covering for the second straight outing. The 'under' has hit in four in a row, and five of the past six for the Jags.

Bad Beats

-- In the UGA-Tennessee game, there were a total of 50 points on the board with less than five minutes to go. The Bulldogs weren't covering a 24.5-point spread until they had a 60-yard fumble return for touchdown with 4:39 to go, making it 43-14. That flipped the total to an 'over' from an 'under', and changed it from a Vols cover to a Dawgs cover. Perhaps it wasn't a textbook bad beat, but one play changed two results late in the game.

-- If you were holding an under ticket, you felt great how the Tulsa-SMU game was going. After three quarters, Tulsa led 30-9. However, SMU tied it up 30-30 to force overtime, and kill under tickets. And, if you were holding a Golden Hurricane moneyline ticket, they missed three field goals, including a chance to win in OT, and they had an extra point blocked in the game, too. Ugly.

-- UNLV scored a touchdown with 1:23 to go, slicing Boise State's lead to 31-13. Just 16 seconds, the Broncos cashed in a six-yard touchdown run to push their lead to 38-13, covering the spread. If you had the Rebels, it was like losing twice.

-- This only involves teasers, but if you had the Air Force-Navy game in a four-teamer, you know. Navy was leading 28-25 with :01 left. A fumble recovery and return for touchdown affected some totals, as Navy won 34-25 for an 'over' on all teasers. Sportsbooks love those.

[Udog]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 6
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the sixth big weekend of the college football season to open the month of October. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Temple (-12) 27, East Carolina 17: The Owls pulled away in the second half going up 27-10 with a field goal early in the fourth quarter. The defense got a stop after East Carolina moved past midfield but Temple had to punt back to East Carolina shortly after a delay due to the lights going out with just under four minutes remaining. It appeared that the game would effectively end with East Carolina stopped on 4th-and-2 but an offsides call gave the Pirates a new set of downs. A 37-yard gain put East Carolina into scoring range and a defensive holding penalty eventually gave the Pirates 1st-and-goal. With 29 seconds remaining Holton Ahlers hit C.J. Johnson for the spread-spoiling touchdown. Temple failed to recover the onside kick but appeared to score late on defense with time expired to miraculously save those on the favorite and the ‘over’, scooping up a desperate lateral attempt and returning it to the end zone. Officials would eventually controversially rule that the ECU player that made the lateral attempt already had his forward progress stopped as the points were not added.

Louisville (-4) 41, Boston College 39: Louisville was in control most of this game and pushed the lead to nine points early in the fourth quarter. A big run put BC within two early in the fourth however and the Eagles got a big defensive stop to get the ball back midway through the fourth quarter still in range. Boston College spent 13 plays to advance only 52 yards before kicking a go-ahead field goal with just over three minutes to go, leading by one as a slight underdog. Louisville reached a new set of downs from the BC 22-yard-line looking to strike for the win but with just over a minute remaining settled for the go-ahead field goal which was enough to hold the win but kept the Eagles winning against the number.

North Carolina (-9½) 38, Georgia Tech 22: North Carolina led 17-0 at halftime but just 17-7 through three quarters before an explosion of points in the final frame. Georgia Tech trimmed the margin to nine points with a critical two-point conversion success, but the underdog cover disappeared as the Tar Heels scored consecutive touchdowns in the fourth quarter to pull away.

Texas (-10½) 42, West Virginia 31: The Mountaineers led early and trailed by just four through three quarters in this Big XII clash, eventually out-gaining Texas with 463 total yards but also with four turnovers. A pair of interceptions handed Texas a pair of touchdowns on short fields early in the fourth quarter as suddenly the Longhorns were up by 18. West Virginia scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes but Texas also added a third short-field score in the final frame to escape with an 11-point win that was enough for many that supported the road favorite for an undeserved win and cover.

Minnesota (-14) 40, Illinois 17: The Gophers had a 20-point edge but a fumble return touchdown put Illinois back in the game, down just 13 heading into the fourth quarter. Minnesota added an early fourth quarter touchdown to get back past the favorite number, eventually adding a late field goal after getting a pair of defensive stops to avenge an ugly loss vs. the Illini from last season.

Navy (+3) 34, Air Force 25: Navy led 21-9 heading into the fourth quarter for a comfortable edge for the underdog but things went sour in the final frame as Air Force scored 16 consecutive points to lead by four with just over three minutes remaining with a missed field goal and a fumble mixed in for the Midshipmen. Navy regrouped to put together an 11-play touchdown drive to go back in front with just 23 seconds remaining and then with Air Force in desperation mode, the Midshipmen picked up a fumble for a late touchdown as time expired to pad the final scoring margin.

Oklahoma (-32) 45, Kansas 20: Oklahoma allowed 360 yards and didn’t seem likely to cover in this contest with only a 14-point edge at halftime. For just over a minute of game clock the Sooners pushed the margin to 35 points in the fourth quarter but Kansas quickly answered and eventually added a second fourth quarter touchdown to stay within the number.

Memphis (-15) 52, UL-Monroe 33: Memphis pushed the lead to 19 points in the third quarter but UL-Monroe hit a few big plays for back-to-back scores and climbed within six late in the fourth. A 68-yard touchdown run from Memphis ended the upset threat and then an interception return touchdown for the Tigers put Memphis back in front of the road favorite price with about six minutes to go.

Pittsburgh (+3½) 33, Duke 30: In a turnover-filled contest Pittsburgh made the most of its early opportunities taking a 26-3 edge early in the third quarter with several short field scoring drives. On an underdog spread that dipped down to +4 or even +3½, Duke would prove to be a late threat scoring four consecutive touchdowns including a go-ahead score with 1:29 to go. Duke hit one two-point conversion and failed on two others as the lead was exactly four. It wound up not mattering as Kenny Pickett was able to lead a late scoring drive to deliver the win for the Panthers, scoring with 38 seconds remaining.

Liberty (-4) 20, New Mexico State 13: The Aggies managed to tie this game halfway through the fourth quarter but the opportunity for New Mexico State to breakthrough with a win proved short-lived as Liberty answered quickly going 75 yards in only four plays as the Flames escaped Las Cruces with a narrow win and cover.

Georgia (-24) 43, Tennessee 14: Georgia led only 29-14 through three quarters but completed a lengthy scoring drive to go up by 22 and then a few minutes later delivered a 60-yard fumble return for a defensive score to get past the heavy road favorite number. Tennessee looked likely to climb back to cover in the final minute reaching 1st-and-goal but wound up with four consecutive incomplete passes.

Ohio State (-20) 34, Michigan State 10: The Spartans scored 10 points in the final 2:24 of the first half to turn a seven-point edge into a 17-point lead. That margin remained through an empty third quarter that included a missed field goal for the Spartans out of the break. Eventually Michigan State’s underdog cover was erased as Ohio State cashed in with just over 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter to lead by 24. Michigan State caught a break with an Ohio State fumble later in the fourth to earn good field position, but Brian Lewerke was intercepted on the very next play.

Boise State (-24) 38, UNLV 13: The Broncos were in control with a 24-0 edge but late in the third quarter UNLV got on the board. Boise State would seal the game with a two-play drive going 70 yards for a touchdown with just over five minutes remaining to lead by exactly 24 where the spread commonly landed. With just over a minute remaining UNLV appeared to spoil that result with a touchdown, though they missed the PAT. The on-side kick attempt went quite wrong as Boise State returned it 39 yards to the six-yard-line and the Broncos went ahead and rushed in for the score with just a minute to go to get in front of the number by a point.