NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thur., Sep. 26 - Mon., Sep. 30)

[Udog]

NFL Betting Trends through Week 3:

Road Teams: 31-16-1 ATS
Home Teams: 16-31-1 ATS

Favorites: 20-27-1 ATS
Underdogs: 27-20-1 ATS

Home Faves: 10-21-1 ATS
Home Dogs: 6-10 ATS

Road Faves: 10-6 ATS
Road Dogs: 21-10-1 ATS

Over/Under: 22-26

[Udog]

By: Josh Inglis


THE PROPIEST OF PROP BETS

Let’s kick things off with some action for tonight’s game. We are already on the Over 39 as part of our prime time 6-point teaser and we are going to add a prop bet that might change the way you cheer for the game. Who's up for rooting for a pass interference call in the endzone?!

The Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Bay Packers each scored a one-yard touchdown last week as well as giving one up to their opponents. Combined with the Eagles being a top-5 team in red zone scoring attempts per game and the Packers having the third-best rating for scoring TDs on their red zone trips (88 percent) we will be recommending the shortest TD Under 1.5 yards (-125).

Carson Wentz has even shown his ability to dive in from the one as the coaching staff dialed up his number twice in a row two weeks ago on Sunday night. Wentz's opponent, Aaron Rodgers, will more than likely pick on an injured-riddled and inexperienced Philly secondary, increasing our chance of a pass interference call in the endzone.

The prop markets are also good places to solidify our confidence in this bet as no running back has a rushing total Over 50.5, with the Eagles longest rush of the year at just 19 yards and the Packers longest at 15. Aaron Rodgers anytime TD is just +450 where QBs markets usually sit in the +1000 neighborhood. Finally, there should be plenty of scoring as the Over 4.5 total TDs is -175.


BIG BANG RIDLEY

After amassing 12 catches on 16 targets for 169 yards and two scores over weeks 1 and 2, Atlanta Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley was invisible in Week 3 with just one catch on one target. Lucky for us, a big bounce-back is possible Sunday at home versus the Tennessee Titans. Even the receiver's coach said he will get the pass-catcher more involved after last week.

Ridley, the Falcon’s 2018 first-round draft pick, has also performed better at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome as his 62 yards per game at home trump his road splits of 44 yards a game. The Titans will cover Ridley with outside corners Malcolm Butler and Adoree’ Jackson who have combined to allow 21 receptions on 28 targets for a 75 percent completion rate. Look for some of Austin Hooper’s Week 3 usage (6/66/2) to go to the squeaky wheel, Ridley.

We are grabbing the Over on the Ridley's yardage total of 60.5.


BREAKING BAD

So far this season, we are 3-0 prop betting against the Miami Dolphins. Each week is getting harder to find value. If you do find it, you have to make the plays early in the week as what is -110 on Thursday is closer to -170 on Sunday.

The Dolphins are a 16-point home dog entering their Sunday matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers. Quarterback Josh Rosen really doesn’t change much in terms of evaluating the team from a betting standpoint as the Dolphins are next-level bad. The Chargers are 6th in the league allowing 6.2 points in the first half while the Dolphins have put together 16 points through three first halves.

We are backing the Dolphins first-half team total Under 6.5 at -111 as the odds are better than Under 0.5 first-half touchdowns which sits at -125

If you’re really looking for a score, the Chargers to win to nil in the first half is +300 or if you think the Dolphins are on the verge of something special offensively, like three points, grab the Over 0.5 first-half field goals for -125


JACOBS' LADDER

Last week, Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman ran for 88 yards against the Indianapolis Colts, which was more than twice his total rushing yardage from the previous two weeks. A lot of this had to do with the absence of Indy's All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard who is still in concussion protocol and very doubtful for Sunday’s game against Josh Jacobs and the Oakland Raiders.

The potential loss in the middle is bad news for the Colts who sit in 29th in yards per rush attempt allowed. Conversely, this is great news for Jacobs who is 13th in yards per rush at 5.1 yards, right between Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott. The problem is the Raiders, who are 6.5-point road dogs, may fall behind early but with Jacobs’ floor of 10-12 carries he still has the ability to rip off long gains as his long run of 51 yards this year is the eighth-best mark of the year. Hit the Over on Josh Jacobs 77.5 rushing yards.

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 4
September 27, 2019
By Micah Roberts

Las Vegas sportsbooks got Week 4 of the NFL season started on a high note with the Philadelphia Eagles earning a 31-27 road win at Green Bay (-3.5, 45.5) on Thursday night.

“We had a great night with the Eagles winning,” CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTomasso said. “It was one of our better games of the year.”

The isolated night games have been big trouble traditionally for the books, evident last Sunday when the Rams defeated the Browns 20-13 in the Week 3.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the games that have been receiving the most attention in Week 4.

“It’s been slow so far this week, not a lot of things happening so far,” DiTomasso said Friday afternoon. “We had a $30,000 bet on the Chiefs laying -6.5, but it wasn’t a wise guy.

The Chiefs opened as six-point road favorites at Detroit and this matchup has the highest total of the week at 54.5. The Chiefs have gone 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 road games and they’ve gone 'over' the total in 16 of their last 21 games outside of Arrowhead.

As expected, the Chiefs-Over combination will be an extremely popular two-team parlay and two-team teaser this week.

“We also had a bet on the Giants at -3 (-105) against the Redskins,” DiTomasso said.

People are believing in rookie quarterback Daniel Jones in his home debut after he made a sensational first impression leading the Giants to a 32-31 road win at Tampa Bay last week.

Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis says sharp action at his books have taken the Giants, Saints (they took +3, it’s +2.5 now) and Seahawks.

The Seahawks have moved from -4 up to the dead number of -5.5 so it won’t take much to push this game to -6. The Seahawks come off an embarrassing home loss to the Saints who were playing without QB Drew Brees.

Make a note that the underdog has gone 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings of this NFC West rivalry.

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay says their top sharp plays this week are the Giants, Raiders (+6.5 at Colts), and Buccaneers (+9.5 at Rams).

“The wise guys are also on the Vikings this week,” DiTomasso said.

The Vikings were getting +2.5 at Chicago and it’s down to +1.5 as of Friday afternoon.

“The top parlay games of the week in ticket counts are the Chiefs, Patriots, Cowboys and Ravens,” DiTomasso said. “We also took a $10,000 bet on the Patriots to make us about $25,000 high on them so far.”

Caesars’ Davis says their top public parlay plays are the Patriots, Chiefs and Ravens as well. Kornegay says the Chiefs, Patriots and Cowboys would be their worst case 3-team parlay cashing.

The Chiefs are one of three teams to be a perfect 3-0 against-the-spread so far along with the Cowboys and Rams, so they figure to be popular choices, but the Ravens have gone just 1-2 ATS meaning that the public love for the Ravens is more about hating the Browns.

“The public has turned quickly on the Browns,” DiTomasso said. “That fourth down and nine running play on Monday night for all to see gave a bad impression for a lot of people I think.”

The 1-2 Browns came into the season with loads of hype and became one of the biggest Super Bowl risks for the sportsbooks, but the SuperBook has circled back past their original opening 20-to-1 odds to win number.

As of Monday, JK and his staff have pushed the Browns up to 60-to-1 to hoist the SB54 Trophy in Miami next February.

Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 15 years.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 4
September 28, 2019
By Joe Williams

It's time for Week 4 in the National Football League, and we're hitting the quarter pole already. Where has the time gone? We're getting a great idea of who the contenders and pretenders are, especially in terms of effectiveness on offense and defense.

2019 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half

Week 3 10-6 9-7 8-7-1

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 20-28 19-28-1 26-21-1

The public scored big in Week 3, sinking books with a 10-6 over record. It was a nice rebound for the masses after watching Joey Public get killed in Week 2, with the under hitting in 13 of 16 outings. Through 48 games, the under sits at 28-20 (41%).

Savvy bettors playing the halves noticed a scoring spike in the first 30 minutes as the 'over' went 9-7 in the first-half last weekend. The high side went 8-7-1 in the second-half and that's been a solid lean overall (26-21-1) for 'over' bettors chasing points this season.

Division Bell

We had just two divisional battles in Week 3, and the total results split. The New York Jets-New England Patriots (43) game likely should've gone under, but with 21 seconds left in the third quarter the Jets came up with a fumble recovery in the end zone for a touchdown. Then, they had a pick-six of 61 yards with 6:23 to go in the game to flip the result. The Jets scored zero points, but the Patriots backup on offense coughed up 14 points, prompting QB Tom Brady to be re-inserted into the game after backup Jarrett Stidham relieved him.

DIVISIONAL GAME RESULTS WEEK 3
Tennessee at Jacksonville Under (38) Jacksonville 20, Tennessee 7
N.Y. Jets at New England Over (43) New England 30, N.Y. Jets 14

Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 4 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Washington at N.Y. Giants: 46 to 48 ½
Seattle at Arizona: 48 to 46
Dallas at New Orleans: 45 to 47
Carolina at Houston: 46 to 47 ½
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: 43 ½ to 45
Cleveland at Baltimore: 46 ½ to 45
New England at Buffalo: 44 to 42 ½
Oakland at Indianapolis: 44 to 45 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 4 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Minnesota at Chicago: Under 88%
New England at Buffalo: Under 82%
Washington at N.Y. Giants: Over 81%
Dallas at New Orleans: Over 76%
Carolina at Houston: Over 70%
Seattle at Arizona: Over 69%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (64 percent) in the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh matchup on Monday Night Football, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Tennessee-Atlanta (66 percent) battle on Sunday.
Handicapping Week 4

WEEK 3 TOTAL RESULTS
Year Over/Under

Divisional matchups 1-1

NFC vs. NFC 5-0
AFC vs. AFC 1-2
AFC vs. NFC 3-3

Week 4 is kicked off with a high-scoring Thursday night battle, as the Philadelphia-Green Bay matchup went 'over'. Through 11 primetime battles the 'under' is now 8-3, but the 'over' has connected in the last two games played at night.

Taking a look at the divisional battles for Week 4:

Cleveland at Baltimore: The Browns and Ravens square off in the first divisional game for both sides. The Browns entered the season with a lot of hype due to massive additions on offense. However, the new-look offense has struggled to gain any momentum through the early going. They're averaging just 16.3 points per game through three contests, although they did manage 23 points in their only road game, a win against the Jets on Monday Night Football back in Week 2. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has passed for more touchdowns in his short career on the road, and he's been sacked less too. In eight road starts under Mayfield, the Browns are averaging 24.3 PPG.

The Ravens are having no such problems on offense, averaging 36.7 points per game to rank No. 1 in the NFL. They're also No. 1 in total yards per game (511.7) and No. 1 in rushing yards (216.7) per contest. They're also No. 7 in passing yards per outing, posting 295.0 yards per game through the air. Defensively, they have only been so-so, coughing up 350.7 total yards per game, giving up 290.3 passing yards to check in 26th. Most of that is skewed, however, as teams have passed frequently to get back into the game. Baltimore has shut down the run, allowing just 60.3 rushing yards per game to check in second in the NFL. The under has hit in four of the past five in this series, and six of the past eight in Charm City.

Other important divisional games with important trends to note:

Washington at N.Y. Giants: The Redskins offense has been a train wreck, posting 336.3 total yards per game to rank 23rd in the NFL, and they're putting up a dismal 48.0 yards per game on the ground to check in 30th. That's not good. They're still managed to post 21.0 PPG, good for 21st in the NFL. Defensively, the 'Skins have been a wreck, as well, ranking 25th with 402.7 yards per game, and they're yielding 31.3 PPG, second-worst in the NFL. Make a note that Washington is the only team to see the over cash in all three of its games.

The Giants gave rookie QB Daniel Jones his first NFL start and it went well. Granted, if the Bucs had a kicker, the G-Men and their rookie go home with a loss in Tampa last week. However, the kicker shanked it, and 'Danny Dimes' is being hailed as the second coming for Big Blue. He passed for 336 yards and two touchdowns while running for 28 yards and a pair of scores. It will be interesting to see what the rookie does in his first home start, and his first game against a divisional opponent. However, while Jones was the good news from last week's road win, the bad news is RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) is expected to miss several weeks due to a high-ankle sprain. The Giants defense is ranked 31st in total yards (460.3) and that combined with Washington's unit is one of the main reasons this total has been pushed up.

Minnesota at Chicago: The trends all point to the 'under' for both the Vikings and the Bears. the under has cashed in 23 of the past 30 divisional battles for the Vikings, while hitting in four of the past five against winning teams and four straight on the road. The Bears have hit the under is four straight divisional battles, while cashing in four straight at home. They're also 6-2 in the past eight at home agaisnt teams with a winning road mark.

Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky finally showed a little consistency, hooking up with WR Taylor Gabriel (concussion) for three touchdowns in the second quarter alone in Week 2 at Washington. However, Gabriel was lost to a concussion, and remains in the protocol. They're still 29th in total yards (275.0), 29th in passing yards (178.7) and 26th in the league in points scored (16.7). Defensively the Bears have locked it down, giving up just 13.0 PPG to rank second in the league, and they're just fifth in rushing yards allowed (68.7). Will the unders continue?

Seattle at Arizona: The 'over' has connected in five straight divisional games for the Seahawks, and they're fairly consistent overall on offense .They're ninth in total yards (390.3), while going 10th in passing yards (280.0) and points scored (25.3). The over has hit in each of the past two for the Seahawks, including a 28-26 win at Pittsburgh in their only road trip of the season so far.

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray had some growing pains, and head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense isn't the up-tempo, high-scoring juggernaut that was expected. In fact, they're 26th in the NFL with 328.0 total yards per game, while middle of the road in passing (243.7), ranking 15th. The 'over' is 2-0 in their two home games so far, averaging 23.5 PPG while yielding 32.5 PPG. The last three meetings from the desert between this pair have watched the 'under' go 3-0.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with spreads of a touchdown or greater for Week 4, with one road team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 42 to 54 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

L.A. Chargers at Miami (1:00 p.m. ET): The Chargers look to add to the woes of the Dolphins. Miami was a little more competitive at Dallas last week, if you count 31-6 as more competitive. That's how bad things have been for the Dolphins. They have managed a total of 16 points, hitting the under in their past two. The Chargers have also struggled a bit on offense, averaging 20.0 PPG while giving up just 21.3 PPG. You can expect another lopsided score, as they're more than a two-touchdown favorite in South Florida. Second-half bettors or Live Betting enthusiasts might want to jump in on the final 30 minutes of this matchup with the Chargers averaging 3.3 PPG in the final two quarters of the season while Miami is at 0 PPG.

New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET): The defending champs hit the road for Western New York, a place they have fared very well over the years. However, they're facing a new-look Bills team which enters the game with an identical 3-0 record and huge expectations these days. These aren't the same Bills which have been pushed around by the Pats in the past.

The Patriots might have their most powerful offense in years, though, and that's a scary thing. They're averaging 35.3 PPG through three outings, including a 43-0 win on the road in Week 2 in their only road outing, albeit against the sorry Dolphins. New England is averaging 311.3 passing yards to rank second, and they're second in the NFL behind the Ravens in scoring. While all of that is good for the over, the defense has been on fire. They're No. 1 in the NFL in total yards (199.0), passing yards (162.3), rushing yards (36.7) and points allowed (5.7). The under has cashed in seven of the past nine inside the division for the Pats, while going 5-2 in the past seven meetings in this series.

Kansas City at Detroit (1:00 p.m. ET): The unbeaten Lions (2-0-1 SU) have hit the over in two of their three games, both on the road, while grinding out a 13-10 win and under in their only previous home game against the Chargers in Week 2. The offense has been on fire for the Chiefs, as expected, going for 28 or more points in all three games, including 34.0 PPG in their two road contests so far. These Lions have been surprisingly effective on defense, but this will obviously be their biggest test of the season. As far as trends go, Kansas City has watched the 'over' go 8-2 in their last 10 road matchups. However, Detroit is on a 6-0 'under' run its last six at Ford Field.

Tampa Bay at L.A. Rams (4:05 p.m. ET): The Bucs could easily be going into this game at 2-1, but a missed kick at the buzzer meant a tough loss. They were able to score 31 points, though, the most of the season and their first 'over'. The Rams struggled in Cleveland on SNF despite the fact the Browns were missing their entire secondary. The Bucs have yielded 25.7 PPG through their three games, and that makes the 'over' rather attractive in this one. The Rams have racked up 25.7 PPG on offense, while the defense has allowed just 11.0 PPG in the past two after a 30-27 win in Week 1.

Under the Lights

Dallas at New Orleans (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): In the Sunday Night Football game, the Cowboys and Saints promised to be a high-flying affair. QB Drew Brees went down, and the offense was expected to struggle. However, the Saints adjusted quickly in Seattle last week, posting a 33-27 win with QB Teddy Bridgewater leading the charge. The 'over' is 5-0 in the past five for Dallas against NFC foes, but the under is 5-1 in the past six on the road against teams with a winning home record. The under is 8-2 in the past 10 against NFC foes for the Saints, and 10-3-1 in the past 14 at home against teams with a winning home mark.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Monday Night Football game this week is a bit of a stinker, as two 0-3 teams face off. The Bengals have really missed WR A.J. Green, as the offense has averaged just 18.0 PPG, while hitting the 'under' in each of their two road games this season. The Steelers have struggled mightily on both sides of the ball, and they're figuring out their identity with QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) done for the season, so QB Mason Rudolph gets his feet wet. Pittsburgh is averaging 16.3 PPG through three games, hitting the 'under' twice in three tries. With 'Big Ben' under center last season, Pittsburgh put up some crooked numbers in night games as it averaged 32.3 PPG and the 'over' went 3-1 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
I took a bit of a beating again in Week 3, as the net loss was (-$220). The Rams-Browns game ruined what would've been a nice teaser win. That's (-$660) for the season, too. We'll look to improve heading into Week 4. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Jacksonville-Denver 37 ½
Best Under: Seattle-Arizona 48
Best First-Half Over: L.A. Chargers-Miami 22 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Over 30 ½ Jacksonville at Denver
Over 43 Tampa Bay at L.A. Rams
Over 40 Dallas at New Orleans

CD's Best Bets
Unfortunately for Chris David, he posted his second straight 1-2 week in his "Best Bet" selections on the "Bet And Collect" podcast last week and he now sits at 5-4 on the season.

For this week's Podcast, he offers up his opinion on every game with Kevin Rogers plus he provides his top selections on the below games:

Tennessee at Atlanta
Minnesota at Chicago
Cleveland at Baltimore

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 4
September 28, 2019
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 10-0 ATS (10.75 ppg) since Nov 20, 2005 as a road dog of more than three points coming off a home game where they scored at least 24 points.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-10-1 ATS (-9.77 ppg) since Dec 08, 2016 after a game in which less than 22 percent of their first downs were from third down conversions.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 0-10 OU (-11.40 ppg) since Oct 05, 2017 when Jameis Winston threw at least two touchdown passes last game.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Vikings are 0-10-1 OU (-9.23 ppg) since Nov 16, 2014 as a dog coming off a game where they scored more points than expected.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Bears are 13-0 OU (12.35 ppg) since Oct 14, 2007 coming off a road win where they gained less than 300 total yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Bills are 11-0 ATS (+8.64 ppg) on turf fields off a home win in which they had more first downs than points.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 4
September 28, 2019
By VI News

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. A win is worth one point while a push earns a half point. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,328 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 · Week 2 · Week 3

Week 4

1) Kansas City -6.5 (1463)

2) New England -7 (930)

3) Minnesota +1.5 (861)

4) Dallas -2.5 (845)

5) New Orleans +2.5 (812)

SUEPRCONTEST - WEEK 4 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Philadelphia (+4) 289 Green Bay (-4) 327
Carolina (+4.5) 523 Houston (-4.5) 752
Cleveland (+6.5) 536 Baltimore (-6.5) 706
Washington (+3) 452 N.Y. Giants (-3) 385
L.A. Chargers (-15.5) 145 Miami (+15.5) 692
Oakland (+6.5) 344 Indianapolis (-6.5) 690
Kansas City (-6.5) 1463 Detroit (+6.5) 309
New England (-7) 930 Buffalo (+7) 423
Tennessee (+4) 648 Atlanta (-4) 416
Tampa Bay (+9.5) 498 L.A. Rams (-9.5) 398
Seattle (-5.5) 410 Arizona (+5.5) 461
Minnesota (+1.5) 861 Chicago (-1.5) 507
Jacksonville (+3) 497 Denver (-3) 617
Dallas (-2.5) 845 New Orleans (+2.5) 812
Cincinnati (+3.5) 318 Pittsburgh (-3.5) 336

SUPERCONTEST - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 3-2 6-4 60%
3 3-2 9-6 60%
4 - - -
5 - - -
6 - - -
7 - - -
8 - - -
9 - - -
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

[Udog]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Top six picks for Week 4 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Texans -4.5 (752)

5) Saints +2.5 (812)

4) Cowboys -2.5 (845)

3) Vikings +1.5 (861)

2) Patriots -7 (930)

1) Chiefs -6.5 (1,463)

2019 record: 12-6

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 4
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Browns at Ravens (-6 ½, 45) – 1:00 PM EST

The AFC North race was expected to include three teams fighting it out for the top spot, but the Steelers are basically done at 0-3 and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger out for the season. The Browns (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) had elevated expectations with several key additions in the offseason, but Cleveland has stumbled with home losses to the Titans and Rams. Cleveland’s offense has produced 13 points in each of its two losses, while quarterback Baker Mayfield was limited to 195 yards in last Sunday’s defeat to Los Angeles.

The Ravens (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) are by no means running away with the division, but Baltimore can put itself in a great position with a victory on Sunday. After blowing out the hapless Dolphins in Week 1, the Ravens failed to cover as double-digit favorites in a home win over the Cardinals to improve to 2-0. However, Baltimore lost to Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium for the second consecutive season as the Chiefs held off the Ravens, 33-28 as 4 ½-point favorites. Mark Ingram rushed for three touchdowns, but Baltimore yielded over 500 yards of offense to Kansas City as the Ravens suffered their first underdog loss with Lamar Jackson starting at quarterback in four tries.

Last season, these division rivals played to a pair of games decided by a total of five points. Cleveland held off Baltimore as three-point home underdogs, 12-9 in overtime, while the Ravens edged the Browns in the season finale, 26-24 as seven-point favorites. Baltimore has won six of the past seven matchups with Cleveland since 2015, as the Ravens had covered five straight meetings before Cleveland cashed twice in 2018.

Best Bet: Ravens 21, Browns 17

Patriots (-7, 41 ½) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST

It’s no surprise that New England (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) has started with an unblemished mark through three weeks. The Patriots cruised past the Steelers and Dolphins in the first two weeks, while yielded a total of three points. New England jumped out to a commanding 30-0 lead last Sunday against the banged-up Jets, but New York picked up the backdoor cover by scoring a special teams and defensive touchdown. The Pats failed to cash as hefty 20 ½-point favorites, but New England limited New York to a shade over 100 yards of offense to grab their 18th consecutive victory at Gillette Stadium.

The Bills (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) were expected to improve this season, but not many believed this team would be undefeated towards the end of September. Buffalo has been carried by its defense so far as the Bills swept the New York squads at Met Life Stadium the first two weeks of the season, while edging the Bengals, 21-17 in Week 3. Buffalo failed to cover for the first time this season as 5 ½-point favorites, but veteran Frank Gore found the end zone in the final two minutes of regulation to lift the Bills to a 3-0 start, as the team rushed for 175 yards against Cincinnati.

This series has been all Patriots over the years as New England has won 28 of the last 31 meetings. That is not a misprint, as two of those wins by the Bills came with Patriots’ star quarterback Tom Brady suspended in one game and playing a handful of series in a meaningless Week 17 contest in 2014. New England is riding a seven-game winning streak at New Era Field as five of those victories by the Patriots have come by 10 points or more in this stretch.

Best Bet: Patriots 27, Bills 17

Vikings at Bears (-1 ½, 38) – 4:25 PM EST

Following Green Bay’s loss to Philadelphia on Thursday night, the winner of Sunday’s contest at Soldier Field will be tied for first place with the Packers atop the NFC North. The Vikings (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) rebounded from a five-point defeat at Green Bay in Week 2 to pound the Raiders last Sunday, 34-14 to easily cash as 8 ½-point favorites. Minnesota jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back as the Vikings rushed for 211 yards, including 110 yards and a touchdown from Dalvin Cook.

The Bears (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) are back at home following a pair of road victories over the Broncos and Redskins, who enter Week 4 with a combined record of 0-6. Following the close-shave win at Denver in Week 2, Chicago cruised past Washington last Monday night, 31-15 to cash as five-point favorites for its first cover of the season. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky finally put together a solid performance with three touchdown passes, while the mighty Bears’ defense created five takeaways as Chicago has allowed 39 points in three games.

Chicago swept Minnesota last season for the first time since 2011 as the Bears have covered four consecutive meetings with the Vikings. The Bears held off the Vikings, 25-20 at Soldier Field to barely hit the OVER of 44 thanks to 28 points by the two teams in the fourth quarter. Chicago dominated Minnesota in the season finale, 24-10 as six-point road underdogs, marking the first road win for the Bears in Minneapolis since 2011.

Best Bet: Vikings 19, Bears 16

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 47 ½ - Panthers at Texans

The Panthers’ offense exploded in last Sunday’s 38-20 victory against the Cardinals as Kyle Allen will make his second consecutive start at quarterback. Carolina visits Houston as the Texans rallied past the Chargers last Sunday by outscoring Los Angeles, 20-3 in the second half. Houston has hit the UNDER in two straight games, but the Texans are 6-1 to the OVER since 2016 off a road victory. Carolina is 4-1 to the OVER since 2017 also off an away win as this total has jumped from 46 to 47 ½.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Titans looked like world beaters in a Week 1 rout of the Browns, but Tennessee has gone backwards the last two weeks by losing to Indianapolis and Jacksonville. The Falcons have surprisingly lost seven consecutive home games to AFC opponents, while going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 opportunities as a favorite. Tennessee has not been impressive offensively in the last two weeks, but the Titans have fared well in the underdog role since Mike Vrabel took over as head coach by going 7-4 ATS, while they are 3 ½-point ‘dogs on Sunday.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Seahawks opened as four-point road favorites at Arizona when the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas released the numbers last Sunday. Seattle has moved up to 5 ½-point favorites as the Seahawks have gone 5-0-1 in the past six visits to Glendale. The Cardinals covered last season in both meetings against the Seahawks, as Arizona owns a 2-0 ATS record in the underdog role in 2019.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

Only two teams have not covered a game this season as they meet in Miami on Sunday. The Chargers own an 0-2-1 ATS mark, while the Dolphins are 0-3 ATS and are listed as a double-digit underdog for the third straight week. In fact, Miami is 0-6 ATS in its past six regular season games with its last cover coming in the “Miami Miracle” against New England last December in a 34-33 win as a 9 ½-point underdog.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 4
September 29, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Panthers at Texans (-5/47.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Kyle Allen was fantastic in his first start taking over for Cam Newton and will be playing in front of friends and family back where he went to college. Since Newton wasn’t able to throw the ball consistently downfield, we’re seeing Norv Turner digging deeper into his playbook. The Texans are better in the back than Patrick Peterson-less Arizona but have to be wary of wrinkles they haven’t seen on tape. Houston will need to get pressure to keep Allen from finding a rhythm, so J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus will need to take advantage of guard Trai Turner’s absence as the Panthers do some reshuffling up front.

Laremy Tunsil has worked with three different guards next to him since arriving from Miami, so continuity hasn’t been something the Texans have enjoyed up front. Deshaun Watson’s ability to keep plays alive with his feet has been a major factor in the Texans’ early success considering all the moving parts they’ve had to deal with this month, so we could see some progress here in terms of consistency instead of them just popping off big plays. After facing pocket passers Jameis Winston and Jared Goff early, Carolina had to be wary of Kyler Murray last week and will face similar challenges here.

Browns at Ravens (-7/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: It’s unseasonably warm in Baltimore and will be in the mid-80’s, which could be a factor since Baltimore has stayed remarkably healthy by their standards this early in the season, coming off a productive camp and preseason. Lamar Jackson is off to a much better start than Baker Mayfield, who the Ravens picked off four times last season in splitting a pair of wild games. Jackson only started the finale, getting the Ravens into the postseason with a Week 17 win by running for a pair of scores.

The Browns will have to try and limit big plays without corners Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams, so it’s going to be important that they get to Jackson early because breakdowns are certainly possible. Ward missed the Rams game with a hamstring issue and Williams stepped up but hasn’t practiced this week. The rookie from LSU is also dealing with a hamstring injury, so if he goes, expect the Ravens to see just how large an issue that is. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown could have a big day.

Redskins at Giants (-3/48.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Daniel Jones has a really good shot at back-to-back wins to open his career given the Redskins’ injury-related issues, and it would certainly merit the hype he’d receive in the world’s top media market since he’s going to have to win a game without Saquon Barkley again. After leading the Bucs to a comeback win following Barkley’s second-quarter high ankle sprain, Jones will again be working with Wayne Gallman in the backfield and should have enough in Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram to move the ball against a suspect Washington secondary that even allowed Mitchell Trubisky to look good on Monday night.

Case Keenum is going to try and play through a foot injury that kept him out of practice earlier this week, while top target Terry McLaurin is also likely to go after being held out with a hamstring issue. The electric rookie has scored a touchdown in all three of his games and could be a problem for a New York secondary that had no prayer of stopping Mike Evans and the Bucs’ receiving corps last week and also got torched in Week 1 by Dallas. Clear conditions are expected in East Rutherford, so we could see points if Keenum can stay upright. We could also see Dwayne Haskins debut in relief. The rookie shootout angle would be fun. At this point, Washington has proven incapable of running adequately with Trent Williams still a holdout.

Chargers (-14.5/44.5) at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The latest astronomical spread involving the Dolphins should give you some pause since the Chargers aren’t unbeaten like the Patriots and Cowboys, in fact coming off consecutive losses. Josh Rosen threw for 200 yards against Dallas and moved the offense down the field before sputtering in the red zone, so Miami may be making some progress as reps set in. The offensive line will have to deal with Joey Bosa, T.J. Watt and a disruptive front seven that should have Casey Hayward in the mix despite his questionable status.

Los Angeles has a number of offensive issues that could be of concern if they’re just trying to kill clock and get out of South Florida with a .500 record and no need for style points. Tight ends Hunter Henry and Virgil Green have been ruled out, WR Mike Williams is sidelined too and speedy Travis Benjamin is considered doubtful. Justin Jackson won’t play, which means we’re likely to see Melvin Gordon debut after ending his holdout. It could be a blessing to have him out there getting carries if you’re looking to put the game away. Keenan Allen has 29 receptions and three touchdowns and figures to be a major part of the Chargers’ game plan.

Raiders at Colts (-6.5/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Derek Carr’s struggles on the road continued in Minnesota. He threw touchdown passes at the end of both halves, the last with the team down 34-7, and has now thrown 16 interceptions and just 18 touchdowns over the past two plus-seasons. He’s got a shot to rebound here since the Colts will be down top linebacker Darius Leonard and safety Malik Hooker. Matt Ryan threw for over 300 yards last week against this Indy defense, so if Derek Waller can continue creating mismatches, we could see Tyrell Williams and rookie Hunter Renfrow step up and help Carr turn the page on his road struggles. J

Jacoby Brissett has been tremendous in filling in for Andrew Luck thus far but might be missing No. 1 receiver T.Y. Hilton, who will be a game-time decision with a quad injury. Indy has been able to utilize its fantastic offensive line to get Marlon Mack off, so if Hilton is out, it’s likely we’ll see the Raiders key in on the run and put this game in Brissett’s hands. Vontaze Burfict will be available after missing practice time so the Raiders will have their defensive leader in place. Oakland’s offensive line is banged up, so it might be difficult to sustain drives if Carr is inaccurate and get rattled.

Chiefs (-7/54.5) at Lions, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Tyreek Hill is close to a return, likely expedited since he’s missing out on all the fun that’s gone on without him. Patrick Mahomes is your early MVP again given his numbers, having thrown for over 370 yards and 3-plus touchdowns against some solid defensive coverages. He’s gotten huge gains from Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman and hasn’t even gotten a monster game from Travis Kelce. It’s going to be hard for a Detroit defense without Darius Slay to consistently get stops, but that may be the nightmare facing Matt Patricia if his top corner can’t play through a hamstring issue. He’ll be a game-time decision. Defensive tackle Mike Daniels has already been ruled out and DT Da’Shawn Hand has been banged up for weeks, so this isn’t the ideal day for the NFL’s top offensive team to come through for a visit.

Matthew Stafford will play through a hip injury and back pain while Danny Amendola should be fine to play through a chest contusion, so the Lions should be equipped to move the football if their defense can’t hold up against Mahomes and this turns into a shootout. If Stafford can’t make it through four quarters, Jeff Driskel is expected to fill in. He’ll give the Chiefs different looks due to his ability to run the ball and keep drives alive with his scrambling, but it would be hard to see Detroit remaining unbeaten if Stafford is incapable of finishing this game out.

Patriots (-7/41.5) at Bills, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: With the Antonio Brown circus leaving town, the Patriots had a normal week where they could actually concentrate on football and an actual threat, fellow unbeaten Buffalo, a division rival. The Patriots have had some offensive line issues creep up and Brady has been hit a little more than he would like, but ultimately, the Patriots are coming through the first month of the potentially temporary post-Gronk era with flying colors. Left tackle Marshall Newhouse will be able to play as he looks to keep a fierce Bills defense from getting to Brady. Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett have emerged next to Julian Edelman, who will play despite a chest injury. Defensive leader Dont’a Hightower is expected to go after missing portions of practice with a shoulder injury.

The Bills have dropped five straight games against New England and have lost 28 of their last 31 in this series. Josh Allen’s ability to make plays with his feet provides an interesting wrinkle, but Buffalo will be without rookie RB Devin Singletary once again. The Bills have had to do some reshuffling up front, so they’ll need to try and create turnovers and utilize Frank Gore to chew up clock and keep the chains moving as they look to pull off an upset. The Bills have defeated teams that enter the day a combined 1-8, so this will truly be a test for both teams since the Patriots have beaten teams that come in 0-9.

Titans at Falcons (-3.5/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Titans and Falcons are each hoping to avoid a 1-3 start, so this should be one of the day’s most competitive games. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will be fun to watch. Tennessee’s primary objective is to clean up their mistakes up front that have led to Marcus Mariota being sacked 17 times over the first three games. Left tackle Tyler Lewan has been suspended and should be back next week, so Tennessee will do whatever it takes to try and finish at .500 without him. They would certainly feel good about that considering what a disaster life has been without him and guard Kevin Pamphile.

The Falcons have to pull off this home win to keep the sharks from circling around head coach Dan Quinn. Matt Ryan hasn’t been sacked over the course of two prior meetings with Tennessee but has already thrown six interceptions in contributing to his team’s uneven start. There’s no question he’s struggling to find a rhythm and is already one pick shy of his total from all of last season. He’s facing a secondary that can punish mistakes as they did in their lone victory so far on the road in Cleveland. The Titans have dropped consecutive games against the Falcons, last winning in Atlanta way back in 2003.

Bucs at Rams (-9/49), 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX: The Bucs let a win get away after a Matt Gay chip-shot field goal missed at the gun, allowing the Giants to steal a game in Tampa that they had trailed all day. Jameis Winston has played much better since an awful debut against the 49ers but now finds himself on the west coast against an unbeaten Rams team that has seen their defense serve as a driving force. While Winston got his chemistry going with Mike Evans against New York, he won’t have Chris Godwin for this game and may not have tackle Demar Dotson protecting him from the likes of Aaron Donald. The Rams come into this one extremely healthy and are hoping to get Jared Goff off against one of the league’s worst secondaries.

[Udog]

By: Josh Inglis


KERRYON’S LUGGAGE

After the Detroit Lions released running back C.J. Anderson last week, starter Kerryon Johnson handled a career-high 20 carries. Johnson was used as a three-down back and handled the goal-line work as well. Although the yardage wasn’t impressive (36 yards), his volume was. The Lions will have to get the ball in Johnson’s hands if they want to keep pace in what will be a high-tempo game against the Kansas City Sunday.

The Chiefs defense has given up 343 total yards to running backs in the last two weeks including 75 yards receiving. Johnson’s volume and skillset make this a perfect spot to exploit his markets. His rushing total sits at 69.5 yards (-114 at Pinnacle) and his receiving total is a mere 19.5 yards (-112). We like this spot so much that we are doubling down on the Over on both his rushing and receiving totals instead of just his total yards, but if we had to choose one, we would recommend the receiving total as it could be won on a single play.

ROAD DOGS

Covers Senior Editor Jason Logan puts out an impressive weekly piece about the best underdog bets of the week. So far, he is 7-2 and it should be a weekly read for anyone looking to get free points. We don’t go all-in on trends around here, but when road dogs are hitting 22-10-1 ATS we are listening.

The Atlanta Falcons defense allowed Colts QB Jacoby Brissett to go a perfect 16-for-16 to start the game last week and are a bottom-six DVOA defense. The Falcons are also dealing with a myriad of injuries at the safety position as Keanu Neal and J.J. Wilcox are both on the I.R.

The Tennessee Titans are no offensive force, ranking 17th in DVOA offense but have also allowed just 33 points in two away games this year. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is sometimes tough to stomach, but he is a competent road QB as his road and home splits are eerily similar. We're taking the points here.


TUCK AND RUN

One of our favorite player props to play is quarterback rushing totals. With valuable totals as low as 15 yards, it’s a wager that can be won on a single play, and that’s something we can get behind. Here is a list of some plays that you can choose if you want to add another element to a game that you may be watching:

Marcus Mariota 23.5 (-115) Mariota is third in QB rushing yards and ran for 32 and 34 yards in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively. With Atlanta’s secondary troubles, look for the Titans QB to keep it in the air instead of the ground.
Daniel Jones 20.5 (-109) Danny Dimes waited until the last moments to pass his rushing total of 22.5 yards last week. This week looks even more appetizing for a QB who ran for a pair of TDs in his first start.
DeShaun Watson 27.5 (-109) Watson averaged 34 rushing yards a game in 2018. That mark has slipped a bit to 21 yards through three weeks this year. The Texans’ opponents, the Carolina Panthers, didn’t concede a single QB rush attempt versus Kyler Murray last week.
Lamar Jackson 51.5 (-114) Lamar unsurprisingly leads all QBs in rushing yards averaging 57 yards a game with 166 yards in the last two weeks. Cleveland allowed 14 yards to Jared Goff last week who has 12 yards all year (not a typo).
Jacoby Brissett 14.5 (-109) With the lowest total of the group, Brissett isn’t a pull-it-down-and-run QB with rushing totals of 9, 25 and 4 over the last three weeks. The Raiders did, however, let Kirk Cousins take off four times in Week 3 for 16 yards.


PUSH YOU ALL’EN

Josh Allen is 3-0 at clearing his passing yards total to start the year. Last week was a little sweaty but cashed nonetheless. This week will really test the trend as the Buffalo Bills will welcome the league’s best passing defense in the New England Patriots.

The Pats are allowing 162.3 passing yards a game but have played quarterbacks Luke Falk and Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen. In 2018, New England’s passing defense was the 11th-worst in passing yards allowed per game at 247.7. Allen did not play the Pats at home last season but put up 217 yards on 20-of-41 passing at Gillette Stadium.

With running back Devin Singletary returning to practice after missing Week 3, it gives Allen one more weapon who is capable of busting big yards after the catch. We are looking to go 4-0, just like the Bills, and taking Josh Allen’s Over 205.5 passing yards.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Top six picks for Week 4 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Texans -4.5 (752)- L

5) Saints +2.5 (812)- W

4) Cowboys -2.5 (845)- L

3) Vikings +1.5 (861)- L

2) Patriots -7 (930)- L

1) Chiefs -6.5 (1,463)- L

2019 record: 13-11


**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den; Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Patriots 16, Bills 10:
— Patriots scored only one offensive TD; they also blocked a punt for a TD.
— NE on eight drives that started 75+ yards from end zone: 0 points, 7 first downs.
— NE is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a divisional road favorite.

— Buffalo outgained New England 375-224, but was -3 in turnovers.
— Bills scored the first offensive TD vs NE this year, on Patriots’ 42nd defensive drive.
— Buffalo lost for 29th time in last 31 games against New England.

Carolina 16, Texans 10:
— Carolina won both of backup QB Kyle Allen’s starts, after an 0-2 start with Cam Newton.
— Panthers are now 24-11 ATS in last 35 games as a road underdog.
— There were only four plays of 20+ yards in this game, 2nd least in any game this year.

— Houston’s only TD came on an 18-yard drive after they recovered a fumble.
— Texans averaged only 3.2 yards/pass attempt.
— AFC South teams are 7-3 vs spread this year outside the division.

Browns 40, Ravens 25:

— Heard a saying the other day: “Each week is a new season.” Fits the Browns in Week 4.
— Nick Chubb ran the ball 20 times for 165 yards and three TD’s.
— Browns in 2nd half: 25 plays, 292 yards, 30 points.

— Cleveland gained 530 yards, averaged 8.7 yards per play.
— Game was 10-7 at halftime; Ravens turned ball over three times in 2nd half.
— Last three games, Baltimore allowed 7.7/7.9/10.5 yards/pass attempt.

Giants 24, Redskins 3:
— Washington became 8th team to change QB’s this year when they benched Keenum after he missed a wide open WR for what would’ve been a long TD pass.
— Rookie QB Haskins was 9-17/107 passing, ran for 23 yards.
— Redskins have allowed 118 points in their 0-4 start.

— Daniel Jones is now 2-0 as an NFL starter.
— Janoris Jenkins caught two of Haskins’ three INT’s.
— Both teams turned ball over four times; yardage was 389-176, Giants.

Chargers 30, Dolphins 10:
— Total yardage in 2nd half was 156-36, Chargers.
— Chargers converted 8-13 on third down, averaged 9.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Win breaks Bolts’ 38-year, 8-game losing streak on South Beach.

— Dolphins in 2nd half: 18 plays, 45 yards, 3 first downs.
— Miami has been outscored 81-0 in second half of games.
— 2020 NFL Draft begins April 23rd in Las Vegas.

Raiders 31, Colts 24:
— Oakland’s first two drives: 11 plays, 135 yards, two touchdowns.
— Raiders are 4-13-1 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog
— Oakland scored clinching pick-6 with 2:09 left.

— Colts were outrushed 188-81
— Indy was outgained 193-15 in first quarter, outgained Oakland 129-24 in second.
— Colts threw 46 passes, ran ball only 23 times, a bad ratio for them.

Chiefs 34, Lions 30:
— Game was 13-13 with 9:30 left in 3rd quarter; Lions had ball on 1-yard line, but fumbled and KC ran it back 99 yards for a TD.
— Chiefs scored winning TD with 0:20 left after a 79-yard drive.
— KC has now scored 15 touchdowns on 38 drives.

— There were five lost fumbles in this game, all in the third quarter.
— Detroit lost despite an 11-yard edge in field position.
— NFC North teams are 7-2-1 ATS outside the division.

Titans 24, Falcons 10:
— Tennessee had a 17-yard edge in field position, which is huge.
— Titans averaged 7.7/8.4 yds/pass attempt in their wins, 3.7/5.1 in their losses.
— Home team lost seven of the eight 1:00 games this week; only the Giants won.

— Falcons ran ball 17 times for 58 yards; in four games, they’ve got 281 rushing yards.
— Ryan was 35-53/397 passing in a losing cause.
— Atlanta is now 0-12 ATS in last dozen games vs AFC opponents

Buccaneers 55, Rams 40:
— Winston was very efficient: 28-41/385 yards, four TD’s.
— Bucs scored 55 points, had only three plays of 20+ yards.
— Tampa dedicated game to their GM Licht, whose father died Saturday.

— You cannot win NFL games when you turn the ball over four times.
— Goff threw for 517 yards; 164 yards to Woods, 121 to Kupp.
— Under McVay, LA is 7-9 ATS as a home favorite.

Seahawks 27, Cardinals 10:
— Seattle wins its sixth straight visit to the desert.
— This was first game this season Seahawks led at halftime.
— Seattle scored two TD’s in 0:44 span in 1st quarter, second one a defensive TD.

— Cardinals have been outscored 68-22 in first half of games.
— Murray has been sacked 20 times in his first four NFL games.
— Arizona is 0-3-1, and they’ve only played one road game.

Bears 16, Vikings 6:
— Vikings are 2-0 at home, scoring 28-34 points, 0-2 on road, scoring 16-6 points.
— Minnesota ran ball for 40 yards here, after running for 591 yards in Weeks 1-3.
— Vikings are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a road dog, 7-11 in last 18 games on natural grass.

— Trubisky hurt his left shoulder; Chase Daniel was 22-30/195 passing.
— Daniel has been in NFL for 10 years, started four games, made $34.3M in salary.
— Under Nagy, Chicago is 7-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Jaguars 26, Broncos 24:
— Fournette ran 29 times for 225 yards.
— Jaguars ran 76 plays, Denver only 54.
— In second half, Jax ran 47 plays for 315 yards, scored 20 points.

— Denver lost its two home games, both on last-second field goals.
— Broncos led 17-6 at halftime, took 24-23 lead with 1:32 left after a 75-yard drive.
— Denver still has zero takeaways, but they did get their first five sacks this year.

Saints 12, Cowboys 10:
— Dallas ran for only 45 yards, after running for 213-235 yards in Weeks 2-3.
— Teams who were minus-2 or worse in turnovers this week are 0-6.
— Cowboys scored 35-31-31 points in their first three games.


— New Orleans failed to score an offensive TD for second time in three weeks.
— Last time Saints won without scoring a TD was back in 1998.
— Four trips to the red zone, Saints kicked four field goals.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 4
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 4 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 6-8
Against the Spread 3-11

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 3-11
Against the Spread 5-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 37-24-1
Against the Spread 24-37-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 26-35-1
Against the Spread 20-41-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 28-34

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+9.5, ML +375) at Rams, 55-40
Browns (+7, ML +280) at Ravens, 40-25
Panthers (+5.5, ML +210) at Texans, 16-10
Raiders (+5.5, ML +210) at Colts, 31-24
Eagles (+3.5, ML +170) at Packers, 34-27
Titans (+3.5, ML +160) at Falcons, 24-10

The largest favorite to cover
Chargers (-14.5) at Dolphins, 30-10
Seahawks (-5.5) at Cardinals, 27-10
Giants (-3) vs. Redskins, 24-3

Living Up To The Hype

-- The Cleveland Browns (+7, ML +280) hit the road for a key AFC North battle against the Baltimore Ravens, and their struggling offense finally hit its stride. The Browns entered the day with 49 points scored through three games, or 16.3 PPG, but they erupted for 40 in this one to help the books immensely. The Browns are now 0-2 SU/ATS in two games at home and 2-0 SU/ATS in two games on the road.

Cleveland posted 193 rushing yards, 337 passing yards and 22 first downs with no fumbles lost and just one interception. The lack of turnovers was key in their road win, and they at least cut their penalties down to a manageable six for 41 yards. Cleveland's red-zone efficiency was a solid 4-for-5, something they could have used more help with against the Rams last Sunday night.

Ram It

-- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rolled up a franchise-record 55 points in their win on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, winning outright as 9.5-point underdogs (ML +375). The Bucs offense has improved every week, scoring 17 points in Week 1, 20 points in Week 2, 31 points in Week 3 and 55 points in Week 4. Unfortunately for the Bucs, they'll need to figure out their defensive problems if they wish to continue winning. They're allowing 29.3 PPG through four outings, including at least 31 points in three of the four contests.

Total Recall

-- The 'under' will outperform the 'over' in Week 4, regardless of what happens in the Monday Night Football contest.

The highest total on the board was the Kansas City Chiefs-Detroit Lions (54.5) lived up to the hype, as the Chiefs outlasted the Lions 34-30 at Ford Field, as the Chiefs dealt the Lions their first straight-up loss of the season. It was amazing that the 'over' connected considering that QB Patrick Mahomes failed to throw or run for a touchdown in the game. The second-highest total on the board, the Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (49) saw a scoreless third quarter keep the lid on the scoring, ending up going under by 12 points. The two games at 48 or 48.5, the Bucs-Rams (48.5) and Washington Redskins-New York Giants (48) were completely different results. The 'Skins mustered just three points in a 24-3 loss, while the Bucs-Rams saw 95 total points, easily the highest scoring game of the 2019 season. It was the highest-scoring game in the NFL since 105 points were put up in the Chiefs-Rams game on Nov. 19, 2018.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Jacksonville Jaguars-Denver Broncos (37) game, which was a very entertaining affair. QB Gardner Minshew led the Jags to a 26-24 comeback win, including 20 points in the second half. The other game with a total in the 30's, the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (38) game, ended up with a just 22 points, and the Bears nearly pitched the shutout until the Vikings scored in the final few minutes to make it 16-6.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 4, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Cincinnati Bengals-Pittsburgh Steelers (44.5) still pending. The 'over' is 3-9 (25.0%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 5-0 for Sunday Night Football this season.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) suffered a left shoulder injury early in the game vs. the Vikings, so it was the QB Chase Daniel show to close out the win.

-- Bills QB Josh Allen (concussion) was knocked out of the loss against the Patriots, and the Bills suffered their first setback of the season as a result.

-- Lions TE T.J. Hockenson (head) attempted to hurdle a defender, had his legs taken out, and he banged his head on the turf. Perhaps that will be the end of that move. Maybe not.

Looking Ahead

-- The Rams and Seahawks will square off on Thursday Night Football in Seattle. The Rams have posted a 4-0 ATS mark in their past four road outings, and they're 7-3 ATS in the past 10 inside the division. However, they're also just 1-5 ATS in the past six appearances on TNF. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have posted an impressive 7-0-2 ATS mark in their past nine showings on Thursday, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four against winning sides. Seattle looks even more impressive when you consider they're 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and 9-3 ATS in the past 12 battles in the Pacific Northwest.

-- The Buccaneers and Saints will lock horns in the Big Easy on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Bucs won outright and covered in their first road game Sunday in L.A., and they're now 4-0-1 ATS in the past five on the road. The Saints edged the Cowboys 12-10 on Sunday night in a low-scoring affair, but they still got it done and are 2-0 SU/ATS in two games since QB Drew Brees (thumb) went down. QB Teddy Bridgewater is doing enough to get it done. The 'under' has hit in 15 of the past 21 meetings in this series, so perhaps the Saints D, which cooled off the Cowboys, can hold down the Bucs.

-- The Ravens and Steelers will tangle in the Steel City. After Baltimore's straight-up loss at home to the Browns, they're now 0-5 ATS in the past five inside the division. They look to snap that in Pittsburgh, as they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five trips to Heinz Field, and they're 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series. The 'over' is 13-6-2 ATS in the past 21 meetings in Pittsburgh, too.

-- The Broncos and Chargers will square off in L.A., as Denver finally looks to get it right. They're 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS, including a pair of narrow losses at home on last-second field goals. The Broncos vaunted D hasn't shown up, allowing 23.4 PPG through four outings so far. The Chargers have hit the 'under' in each of their past three outings, too. The under is also 6-0 in the past six battles in Southern California in this series, and 9-4 in the past 13 meetings overall.

-- The Browns won their first appearance on Monday night against the Jets back in Week 2, now they get another shot under the lights in San Francisco. The 49ers are coming off a bye, so they'll be fairly healthy and well-rested, and they get an extra day with the MNF game. That's the first-place 49ers against the first-place Browns. Is this an alternate universe? The Browns are 4-0 ATS in the past four on the road, while the 49ers are 26-7 ATS in the past 33 on MNF. Something's gotta give. Well, the Niners are also 0-6 ATS in the past six following a bye.

[Udog]

NFL Week 5 odds: Book braces for public to come back strong on Chiefs at home vs Colts
Patrick Everson

Patrick Mahomes guided Kansas City to a last-minute TD and win at Detroit on Sunday. The Chiefs, now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, opened as 9.5-point home favorites for their Week 5 tilt against the Colts.

Week 5 of the NFL season has some intriguing matchups that are already seeing some line movement. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action for a quartet of contests, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)

Kansas City is among just three remaining unbeaten teams, though just barely after Week 4. The Chiefs (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) overcame an early 10-0 deficit at Detroit, then got a last-minute touchdown to win a shootout 34-30 as 7.5-point favorites Sunday.

Indianapolis looked surprisingly good the first three weeks of the season, following the stunning retirement of quarterback Andrew Luck. But in Week 4, the Colts (2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) trailed Oakland 14-0 early and never got closer than a touchdown in a 31-24 home loss as 5.5-point faves.

This matchup is in prime time Sunday night, and The SuperBook is bracing for public play on K.C.

“Kansas City was lucky to escape on the road in Detroit,” Murray said. “The Chiefs come home to face a Colts team off a very bad performance of their own in a home loss to the Raiders. Every parlay and teaser will close with K.C. next Sunday night.”

The Chiefs ticked up to -10 in the hour after this line went up, then shortly thereafter went back to -9.5.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)

Green Bay was in a good spot to remain unbeaten in Week 4, playing at home in the Thursday nighter. But in a back-and-forth battle, the Packers (3-1 SU and ATS) couldn’t outlast Philadelphia, losing 34-27 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Dallas was also in prime time and aiming to remain perfect in Week 4, playing under the Sunday night spotlight at New Orleans. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) couldn’t find points, though, losing a defensive slog 12-10 laying 2.5 points.

“This game is off the board as the Cowboys play the Saints,” Murray said early Sunday evening, noting that prior to the Cowboys-Saints kickoff, The SuperBook posted Dallas -4.5 against Green Bay. “Both teams were probably a little overvalued off their 3-0 starts. We will learn a lot about the Packers in this game.”

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)

Baltimore could have gained an early foothold on the AFC North, going off as 7.5-point home chalk against Cleveland on Sunday. However, the Ravens (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) gave up 30 second-half points in a 40-25 setback.

Pittsburgh lost QB Ben Roethlisberger to an elbow injury in Week 2 and is still seeking its first victory of the season. The Steelers (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) still have Week 4 work to do, as they host Cincinnati on Monday night. In Week 3 behind backup Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh nearly pulled a road upset of San Francisco, falling 24-20 as 6-point pups.

“If the Steelers lose to the Bengals on ‘Monday Night Football,’ the line will go up and the public will come in very hard on the Ravens here,” Murray said. “Either way, we will need the ‘dog pretty big.”

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (PK)

Defending NFC champion Los Angeles fell from the unbeaten ranks in stunning fashion, giving up a 50-plus burger as nearly double-digit Week 4 chalk. The Rams (3-1 SU and ATS) trailed Tampa Bay 21-0 midway through the second quarter, rallied within 45-40 midway through the fourth, but ultimately lost 55-40 giving 9 points at home.

Meanwhile, Seattle bounced back from a Week 3 upset home loss to a New Orleans team minus Drew Brees. The Seahawks (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) went to Arizona as 5.5-point favorites Sunday and exited with an easy 27-10 victory.

Both teams operate on a short week for this Thursday night NFC West clash.

“A nightmare game for the Rams’ defense against Tampa,” Murray said. “The public will likely look to back the Rams anyway. Our look-ahead number closed Rams -2.5.”

The game then reopened Sunday afternoon as a pick ‘em and moved to Rams -1 an hour later. Shortly thereafter, the line went back to pick.

[Udog]

MNF - Bengals at Steelers
Tony Mejia

Bengals at Steelers (-3.5, 45), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

I’ve long been of the belief that there’s no such thing as a true must-win in the NFL but admit that a division game where the loser falls to 0-4 is a pretty good argument against that. If you’re going to try and sell your team on turning things around in October after a slow start, that will be a lot easier to do for the winning coach come Tuesday than it will for whoever comes up short.

Only one team has made the playoffs after starting a season 0-4 over the past 40 years, and players are aware that a winless first month is tough to come back from.

Betting trends suggest the Steelers were overvalued at home despite starting a backup quarterback when this number came out, so Andy Dalton and a Bengals team that has won only once in 11 games has a lot of support as they look to try and hand Pittsburgh (0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS) only its second 0-4 start since 2013. To do so, the Bengals will have to snap an eight-game losing streak at the hands of the Steelers dating back to '16. New head coach Zac Taylor has had a tough time getting his offense on track, compromised by A.J. Green’s continued absence as he looks to return from an ankle injury sometime later this month.

Cincinnati (0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS) hasn’t scored more than 20 points yet despite Taylor’s desire to speed up tempo, putting together its best game when Dalton threw for 418 yards in a 21-20 loss in Seattle. He’s since been picked off three times and struggled with consistency in losses to the 49ers and Bills. The Steelers have lost to Seattle and San Francisco too. They’ve been encouraged by Mason Rudolph’s first outings in relief of Ben Roethlisberger, who will miss the remainder of the season after suffering an elbow injury in Week 2.

Rudolph has thrown for a pair of scores and been picked off once in each of his games this week and now makes his first home start in a crucial contest. There have been a number of guys pressed into duty in relief of Roethlisberger over the past 16 years, but none will get the extended look Rudolph is expected to receive if he can stay healthy. The 2018 third-round pick has looked promising in the preseason and is really the only chance they Steelers have of salvaging this season since they parted ways with Joshua Dobbs and list unproven rookie Devlin Hodges as the backup.

Running back James Conner hasn’t been able to get on track as Pittsburgh is averaging just 64 yards per game on the ground, so the Bengals will probably prioritize keeping him in check, which should create opportunities for Rudolph to make plays while avoiding mistakes given the blitzes and varied looks he should expect to see.

Rudolph is hoping to establish more of a connection with new No. 1 receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has yet to break out with 100-yard output through the first three games in attempting to replace Antonio Brown. He did haul in a grab that he took 79 yards against the 49ers last Sunday but only caught two other balls for just five yards. Getting him going should be a priority. Rudolph probably won’t have favorite target Vance McDonald available. More on that in the injury report below. He does have college teammate James Washington on board in addition to veteran Donte Moncrief, rookie Diontae Johnson, so the receiving pieces are there for Pittsburgh to test a secondary that has allowed six touchdown passes through the first three games.

Pittsburgh has surrendered seven, done in by Tom Brady and Russell Wilson for three apiece. Last week’s loss in Santa Clara featured the defense finally showing a little backbone against Jimmy Garoppolo, which included picking off twice as new arrival Minkah Fitzpatrick paid immediate dividends in upgrading the secondary. There’s hope that the team’s familiarity with Dalton’s tendencies and the upgrade of adding Fitzpatrick to try and handle elite slot receivers like Tyler Boyd will help the defense build some momentum after looking like scrimmage partners over the first two weeks.

Dalton will look to utilize the speed of Joe Ross and the elusiveness of Boyd to his advantage when not handing it to Joe Mixon, but not having Green to help stretch the field puts extra pressure on him to be perfect with a lot on his plate considering the Bengals haven’t really bothered establishing the run. The beginning of this game is going to be crucial to the total since a slow start is a very good possibility given the uncertainty involved on both ends with Rudolph making his first start and Cincinnati likely trying to establish Mixon early while keeping things simple for an offensive line that has really struggled to block. While both teams are capable of hitting home runs with deep threats, I’d recommend the first-quarter under, which is widely available at 7.5.

For a look at a player prop involving Smith-Schuster, checkout VI’s Weekly NFL Free picks .

Both teams woke up to rain all day and can expect to see afternoon thunderstorms but the forecast indicates we’ll have clear weather once kickoff rolls around. Temperatures will be in the low 70s and there will be minimal wind, so once the kid gloves come off early, we could see points that will make a run at the closing total. A second-half ‘over’ play could be a natural fit if both offenses have shown signs of life in the opening 30 minutes and the rain has stayed away.

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

"Sharps absolutely love the Bengals and the ‘over’," said Berg, whose entertaining observations can be found on Twitter (@percentberg). "Unfortunately for everyone that wants to ride with them, those numbers are long gone. The game opened with the Bengals at 4.5 and 43.5."

Cincinnati Bengals
Projected season win total: 6 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win AFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 16/1 to 50/1
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 100/1 to 500/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 200/1 to 1000/1

Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected season win total: 9.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 13/10 to 10/1
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 100/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 18/1 to 200/1

LINE MOVEMENT

The Steelers came into the season with plenty of respect, so those who backed the Black-and-Gold to outperform some futures are currently holding tickets with odds that are nowhere near as lucrative as currently available. The loss of Roethlisberger and an 0-3 start have thrust the Ravens and Browns to the front of the division and makes it unlikely that Pittsburgh will be able to overcome its slow start behind the inexperienced Rudolph. If you’re a true believer, the payoff is enticing. I’d imagine that there will be a few among the stubborn Steelers’ faithful willing to double down at these odds. They won’t be better next week if they take care of business and won’t be realistic if they end up 0-4 so now is the time to act if you think the Steelers have simply had a rough start.

The Bengals were expected to bring up the rear and are playing their role, struggling under a first-time head coach while missing its top receiver. There’s no reason to get in on any of their futures even if you’re of the belief they’ll pull off a Monday night upset.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Steelers were installed as a 3.5-point favorite when the Westgate’s early numbers were announced, opened the week as a 4.5-point 'chalk' throughout most shops and was bet down to 3 points on Sunday before rising up to 3.5 at many books. Look for that dance between 3 and 4 points to play out until kickoff but it’s hard to see significant action coming in.

The money line opened at Pittsburgh-200 at Caesars and has since dipped to -170. If you're in on the underdog Bengals to pick up their first victory, they've moved from +175 to +155.

INJURY CONCERNS

Carl Lawson will again be missing from the Bengals’ defense due to a hamstring issue, while DE Kerry Wynn remains out with a concussion and DT Ryan Glasgow won’t get back from a thigh injury. Defensive ends Carlos Dunlap and Sam Hubbard should play, as will corner B.W. Webb.

Cincinnati is still without Green and key offensive tackle Cordy Glenn, but will have tackle Andre Smith and guard Michael Jordan available up front.

Pittsburgh is expected to be missing McDonald due to a shoulder injury, so newly acquired TE Nick Vannett and rookie Zach Gentry will be pressed into duty. Fullback Roosevelt Nix remains out with a knee injury, which means that the running game could again struggle to get going. The Steelers will be missing linebackers Anthony Chickillo and Vince Williams but should have corner Joe Haden available. Mark Barron should play despite not practicing and LB Jayrone Elliott is questionable due to a hamstring.

RECENT MEETINGS (Steelers 11-1, 8-4 ATS last 12; UNDER 7-5)

12/30/18 Steelers 16-13 at Bengals (CIN +14, 45)
10/14/18 Steelers 28-21 at Bengals (PITT +1.5, 49.5)
12/4/17 Steelers 23-20 at Bengals (CIN +4.5, 42.5)
10/22/17 Steelers 29-14 vs. Bengals (PITT -4, 40)
12/18/16 Steelers 24-20 at Bengals (PITT -3, 45.5)
9/18/16 Steelers 24-16 at Bengals (PITT -3, 48)
1/9/16 Steelers 18-16 vs. Bengals (CIN +3, 45)
12/13/15 Steelers 33-20 at Bengals (PITT +2.5, 50)
11/1/15 Bengals 16-10 vs. Steelers (CIN +1, 48.5)
12/28/14 Steelers 27-17 at Bengals (PITT -3.5, 48)
12/7/14 Steelers 42-21 at Bengals (PITT +3, 47.5)
12/15/13 Steelers 30-20 vs. Bengals (PITT +1.5, 44.5)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 5 currently has the Steelers as a 3-point home underdog against the Ravens. The Bengals are listed as a 4-point favorite against the Kyler Murray-led Cardinals, who have yet to win a game this season.