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**Udog** · 09-24-2019, 10:37 AM

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 3 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-6

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 30-16-1
Against the Spread 20-26-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 23-23-1
Against the Spread 15-31-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 21-26

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Giants (+5.5, ML +210) at Buccaneers, 32-31
Saints (+5, ML +200) at Seahawks, 33-27
Lions (+4, ML +180) at Eagles, 27-24
Texans (+3, ML +145) at Chargers, 27-20

The largest favorite to cover
Cowboys (-22.5) vs. Dolphins, 31-6
Vikings (-9) vs. Raiders, 34-14
Packers (-7) vs. Broncos, 27-16
Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Ravens, 33-28
Rams (-4.5) at Browns, 20-13

Stacking Dimes

-- The New York Giants (+5.5, ML +210) rallied for the 32-31 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in the first-career start for rookie QB Daniel Jones, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. He replaced two-time Super Bowl winner QB Eli Manning, and his selection was viewed as a bit of a reach by some. However, if Sunday's game is any indication, the G-Men appear to have made the right decision in selecting him, as well as making the change in Week 3. He completed 23-of-36 passes for 336 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding four runs, 28 yards and two more touchdowns, including the game-winner late in the fourth quarter.

The Legend of Danny Dimes grows after a tremendous preseason. He went into the huddle at one point of the second quarter and said, "Let's f***ing score!", which was surprising to his teammates, as he reportedly had never been overheard swearing in the past. Elias Sports Bureau reports that since the 1970 merger only Jones and former Detroit Lions QB Eric Hipple are the only players to pass for two TDs and run for two TDs in his first-career start.

Brown Out

-- The Cleveland Browns were much better in their second home game of the season against the Los Angeles Rams than they were in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans, but the results were the same - a loss and a non-cover. The entire secondary for the Browns was inactive, but they nearly tied the game up in the closing seconds. The Browns, who were blown out 43-13 in Week 1 by the Titans, moved inside the 5-yard line of the Rams in the final ticks. However, QB Baker Mayfield scrambled to the right and was picked off on the final play, falling 20-13 in a surprisingly low-scoring game. The public helped the books take a huge bath as a result of the favorite Rams covering the 4.5 points.

Total Recall

-- The over went 9-6 between Thursday's game and Sunday's entire slate, quite a bit different than Week 2 when the under connected in 13 of 16 outings.

The highest total on the board was the Baltimore Ravens-Kansas City Chiefs (52) ended up covering fairly handily with 61 total points. That was the only total in the 50's. The second-highest total was the Houston Texans-Los Angeles Chargers (49) game, which went just under with 47 points. QB Philip Rivers was picked off in the red zone to end the threat of overtime, and the threat of an over ticket. The two games with totals at 48, the aforementioned Giants-Bucs game, and Atlanta Falcons-Indianapolis Colts games each saw 'over' results.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Tennessee Titans-Jacksonville Jaguars (38) game, which easily hits the under with a total of 27 points. It started out looking like it might be high-scoring, as QB Gardner Minshew led the Jags to a 14-0 lead after 15 minutes. However, a scoreless second quarter, and a total of three points in the third put the nail in the coffin for those holding 'over' tickets.

-- The 'under' is 2-0 through the first two primetime games of Week 3, with the low Monday Night Football contest between the Chicago Bears-Washington Redskins (41) still pending. The 'over' is 1-8 (11.1%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- The biggest injury of the weekend occurred in that Giants-Bucs battle, as New York RB Saquon Barkley suffered a high-ankle sprain after getting his foot caught under a tackler in the second quarter. He was on crutches and in a walking boot on the sidelines in the second half. The injury didn't keep him from hobbling over and celebrating with his teammates following the win.

-- Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (quadriceps) entered Sunday's game questionable against the Falcons due to a quad injury, and he aggravated the ailment.

-- Patriots WR Julian Edelman (chest) left with a chest injury suffered against the Jets. He had X-rays which came back negative.

-- Chiefs RB LeSean McCoy (ankle) exited early due to an ankle injury for the team which was already missing starter RB Damien Williams (knee).

Looking Ahead

-- The Browns travel to meet the Ravens in a battle between the top two teams in the AFC North. The Browns have posted a 4-1 ATS mark in their past five road games, although they're 6-16-1 ATS in the past 23 inside the division. They did a good job shutting down the running game of the Rams in Week 2, but facing QB Lamar Jackson is a whole other animal. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, and 0-4 ATS in the past four inside the division. While Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series, the road team is 13-5-1 ATS in the past 19 meetings. The 'under' is also 4-1 in the past five, and 6-2 in the previous eight battles in Charm City.

-- The Patriots have dominated the Bills in the past, but it's a new day in Buffalo. We'll see if it's the same old results. Buffalo has fired out to a 3-0 SU record, and they're 2-1 ATS with the 'under' hitting in each of their first three. New England is 20-8 ATS in the past 28 games on the road, while going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 inside the division. They've really made Western New York their home, going 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 trips to Buffalo. The road team is also 20-7-1 ATS in the past 28 in this series.

-- In another divisional matchup, Jones and the Giants will look to carry over their momentum from Tampa back to MetLife Stadium against the 'Skins. Washington has covered just once in the past six games inside the NFC East, although that one cover happened in Week 1 in Philadelphia. They're 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on the road, too. The G-Men have posted a 5-2-1 ATS mark in the past eight against the NFC, including their outright win against the Bucs. If you're a fan of totals, the 'under' is 13-3 in the past 16 battles in New Jersey, and 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.

-- The Seahawks and Cardinals hook up in the desert on Sunday afternoon. QB Kyler Murray and the Cards are searching for their first win, going 0-2-1 SU. However, they are 2-1 ATS in the first three, including a pair of 'over' results at home. This series has been all about the road team, as the visitors are 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine in this series. Seattle has an impressive 4-1-1 ATS mark in the past six trips to the desert, too. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four meetings in Glendale, too.

-- The Vikings and Bears get together in the Windy City, and Chicago looks to maintain its dominance against the number. The Bears are 13-3 ATS in the past 16 at home against the Vikings, and 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings overall. The under has hit in four of the past five at Soldier Field with 11 unders in the past 15 meetings overall.

-- On Monday Night Football the winless Bengals and winless Steelers square off at Heinz Field. The Bengals have posted a 2-0 ATS mark in their two games so far on the road, and they have covered their past six away games dating back to last season. Cincinnati is also 7-2 ATS in the past nine divisional matchups. Pittsburgh has dominated, going 18-7-1 ATS in the past 26 home games against the Bengals, but it's a new day with QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) already done and QB Mason Rudolph under center.

**Udog** · 09-24-2019, 10:38 AM

Close Calls - Week 3

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 3 of the NFL regular season.

Green Bay Packers (-7) 27, Denver Broncos 16 (41½): Denver looked poised to go into halftime tied 10-10 in Green Bay with the ball back just ahead of the two-minute-warning. Joe Flacco was sacked however, and his fumble was recovered at the 5-yard-line. The Packers scored two plays later to take a 17-10 edge into the break, even with the closing spread that was a half-point higher earlier in the week. The second half also started with a Denver fumble and Green Bay scored quickly on the short field to suddenly lead 24-10. Denver would eventually answer in the third quarter, but the extra-point attempt hit the upright as Bronco backers could not catch a break in a game that was even statistically. Later in the third a 59-yard drive for the Broncos ended in an interception that was granted on replay review. Green Bay eventually added a field goal halfway through the fourth to seal win as well as getting the total just ‘over’.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) 33, Baltimore Ravens 28 (52): Results wound up varying on the big AFC showdown between 2-0 squads as a line that was as high as -7 eventually landed at -4 with numbers in-between certainly possibilities depending on the timing and location. The Chiefs dominated the first half with a 23-6 edge and the margin didn’t change in the third quarter with both teams adding touchdowns. Baltimore made a run in the fourth however adding 10 points in succession to climb within a single score, down by eight. The Chiefs were able to add a field goal with about four minutes remaining, but Baltimore was able to add a late touchdown just ahead of the two-minute warning to get within five. The two-point conversion try loomed large for many and Baltimore was not able to convert.

Buffalo Bills (-6) 21, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (43½): The Bills dominated the turnover-prone Bengals early in this game getting to 14-0 unconventionally with eight points on an early touchdown and on short field drives Cincinnati stayed in the game by holding the Bills to two second quarter field goals (plus another missed field goal try). The Bengals finally got on the board with about six minutes to go in the third quarter after swapping interceptions, suddenly only down seven despite a big disparity in production. The Bengals forced a punt and turned in their best drive of the day going 82 yards in 11 plays to tie the game early in the fourth quarter. Another defensive stop and a field goal put the Bengals in the lead for an improbable comeback, but Buffalo was able to respond with a Frank Gore touchdown inside of the two-minute warning. Cincinnati was a threat for the outright win on its last drive, reaching the Buffalo 28 in the final seconds before an Andy Dalton interception.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) 27, Atlanta Falcons 24 (48): The Colts were in charge up 20-3 at halftime but Atlanta scored two touchdowns consecutively around only one Colts possession to climb within three early in the fourth quarter, with the second score on a 16-play drive that took nearly 10 minutes of game clock. The Colts converted several drives to get back on the board halfway through the fourth with a 10-point edge. Atlanta would add a late touchdown to get within three, a touchdown that cleared the ‘over’ in the final five minutes, but the Colts wouldn’t surrender the ball back and held on for the narrow win.

New England Patriots (-20½) 30, New York Jets 14 (43): Those brave enough to lay three touchdowns with the defending Super Bowl champions were rewarded with a dominant showing that led to a 30-0 lead late in the third quarter. A muffed punt would put the Jets on the board late in the third quarter and then in the fourth quarter with rookie Jarrett Stidham in the game, a pick-six put the Jets back within the spread, hitting the ‘over’ in the process as well. The Jets defense posted 14 points while the offense had only 105 yards but the 16-point margin left the underdog with a win despite the mismatch.

Dallas Cowboys (-22½) 31, Miami Dolphins 6 (46½): With a 10-0 early lead a Dallas rout seemed to be underway, but Miami would manage a pair of field goals and turned in a few defensive stops as a respectable 10-6 deficit was the halftime score. Dallas scored a touchdown coming out of halftime to regain control of the game and added another seven late in the third to lead by 18. One more touchdown would put Dallas ahead of the historic spread, but Dallas had to settle for a field goal attempt which they missed. Miami was able to cross midfield on a late drive but failed on 4th down and with fewer than four minutes remaining Dallas added the critical touchdown for those on the heavy favorite. Miami reached the Dallas 40-yard-line looking to play spoiler but only got a yard on a 4th-and-2 rush.

New York Giants (+5) 32, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 (48): The Buccaneers took a commanding 28-10 lead with 16 points in the final eight minutes of the second quarter but in settling for three field goals on those four scores they kept the door open for the Giants. On the first play from scrimmage in the second half the Giants connected for 75 yards on the first touchdown pass for Daniel Jones, who earlier in the game ran in for a score in his first NFL start. The New York defense was ignited and turned in three straight punts and an interception with New York able to climb within three with another touchdown drive. A Jones fumble with about 10-minutes to go seemed to halt the momentum but Tampa Bay only got another field goal to lead by six, where the spread was commonly sitting before falling to -5. After swapping punts, the Giants had the ball back with just over three minutes to go and quickly reached the red zone. The drive stalled from there facing 4th-and-5 from the 7-yard-line with Jones eventually calling his own number for the tying score, with the extra-point putting New York in position for win #1. Tampa Bay went 59 yards in the final minute but kicker Matt Gay, who had made four field goals but also missed two extra-points in an eventful day, missed the game-winner from only 34 yards.

Houston Texans (+3) 27, Los Angeles Chargers 20 (49): The Chargers led 17-7 at halftime but Houston scored a pair of touchdowns around a Philip Rivers fumble to take a 21-17 lead. The Texans extended that advantage to 27-17 in the fourth quarter before a Chargers field goal brought the margin back to seven. Overtime looked like a possibility as Rivers led the Chargers down to the Houston 24-yard-line in the final minute before a penalty and a pair of incomplete passes ended the threat.

San Francisco 49ers (-6) 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 20 (44½): The 49ers did their best not to go 3-0 with turnovers on four of their first five possessions but Pittsburgh managed only two field goals behind Mason Rudolph despite the extra chance and good field position. San Francisco was able to get on the board with a field goal before halftime to trail only 6-3 in what ordinarily would be much worse circumstances given that many mistakes. Fortunes changed after halftime and San Francisco scored a short field touchdown after a Rudolph interception. Both teams added touchdowns to keep the 49ers up by four on a spread that was commonly -6½ after Ben Roethlisberger was ruled out. A mostly stagnant Pittsburgh offense was able to go 81 yards in just a minute early in the fourth with a 32-yard pass interference call a big factor. Next a promising San Francisco response ended in another fumble in the red zone as Pittsburgh appeared poised to get its first win. The Steelers would fumble just three plays into the next drive on a 1st down rush and needing only 24 yards the 49ers went back in front, though they didn’t get past the spread despite an edge of nearly 200 yards in the game. The final touchdown put the scoring at 44, past early week totals around 43 though by Sunday most books had the price at 44 or higher.

Los Angeles Rams (-4) 20, Cleveland Browns 13 (48½): The underdog Browns led 6-3 at halftime Sunday night with the Rams missing a field goal and having a fumble in the first half. Both teams scored on their opening possessions of the second half and Cleveland was granted a golden opportunity to pull further in front with a Jared Goff interception near midfield. Cleveland managed two yards and punted and then the Rams scored a touchdown to take the lead a few minutes into the fourth quarter. That touchdown put Los Angeles up by four to match the closing spread though the Rams were commonly -3 before a late rise. The infamous 4th-and-9 draw from Freddie Kitchens followed as the Browns came up empty on the next possession and the Rams were able to add three more to lead by seven. On 3rd-and-3 with fewer than three minutes to go Goff inexplicably threw deep into coverage for an interception to give the Browns an unexpected late opportunity. Baker Mayfield led an uneven drive down to the Los Angeles 4-yard-line, aided greatly by a roughing the passer call and an earlier illegal contact call that wiped out a sack. Three incomplete passes followed before a game-ending interception in the endzone on 4th down.

**Udog** · 09-24-2019, 10:38 AM

101PHILADELPHIA -102 GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 20-5 ATS (14.5 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better since 1992.

251CAROLINA -252 HOUSTON
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons.

253CLEVELAND -254 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in the last 3 seasons.

255WASHINGTON -256 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games in the 1rst half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

257LA CHARGERS -258 MIAMI
LA CHARGERS are 39-19 ATS (18.1 Units) in road games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992.

259OAKLAND -260 INDIANAPOLIS
OAKLAND is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. in the last 3 seasons.

261KANSAS CITY -262 DETROIT
KANSAS CITY is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the last 2 seasons.

263NEW ENGLAND -264 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.

265TENNESSEE -266 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.

267TAMPA BAY -268 LA RAMS
TAMPA BAY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after going over the total in the last 3 seasons.

269SEATTLE -270 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.

271MINNESOTA -272 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.

273JACKSONVILLE -274 DENVER
DENVER is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.

275DALLAS -276 NEW ORLEANS
DALLAS are 8-0 ATS (8 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

277CINCINNATI -278 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 62-30 ATS (29 Units) vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) since 1992.

**Udog** · 09-24-2019, 10:39 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Thursday, September 26

Philadelphia @ Green Bay

Game 101-102
September 26, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
131.681
Green Bay
133.807
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 5
45
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+5); Over

Sunday, September 29

Cleveland @ Baltimore

Game 253-254
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
128.711
Baltimore
138.929
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 10
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 7
46
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-7); Over

Carolina @ Houston

Game 251-252
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
131.830
Houston
134.840
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 5
46
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+5); Over

LA Chargers @ Miami

Game 257-258
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
132.363
Miami
111.678
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 20 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 16
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-16); Over

New England @ Buffalo

Game 263-264
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
146.381
Buffalo
130.672
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 15 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7
42
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-7); Over

Tennessee @ Atlanta

Game 265-266
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
133.605
Atlanta
132.712
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 1
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+4); Over

Oakland @ Indianapolis

Game 259-260
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
123.563
Indianapolis
137.469
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 14
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 6 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-6 1/2); Over

Washington @ NY Giants

Game 255-256
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
121.430
NY Giants
126.444
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-3); Under

Kansas City @ Detroit

Game 261-262
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
141.888
Detroit
132.618
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 9
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 6
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-6); Over

Tampa Bay @ LA Rams

Game 267-268
September 29, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
129.864
LA Rams
136.775
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 7
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 10
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+10); Over

Seattle @ Arizona

Game 269-270
September 29, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
131.143
Arizona
122.523
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 8 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 4 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-4 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Chicago

Game 271-272
September 29, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
132.226
Chicago
137.148
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 5
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 2 1/2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(-2 1/2); Under

Jacksonville @ Denver

Game 273-274
September 29, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
132.530
Denver
124.881
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 7 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3
38
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+3); Over

Dallas @ New Orleans

Game 275-276
September 29, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
134.992
New Orleans
134.927
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
Even
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+3); Under

Monday, September 30

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Game 277-278
September 30, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
125.041
Pittsburgh
132.190
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 4
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-4); Over

**Udog** · 09-24-2019, 10:39 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 26

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2) at GREEN BAY (3 - 0) - 9/26/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 111-81 ATS (+21.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 195-139 ATS (+42.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 76-53 ATS (+17.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, September 29

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CAROLINA (1 - 2) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 119-88 ATS (+22.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (1 - 2) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (0 - 2) at NY GIANTS (1 - 2) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (1 - 2) at MIAMI (0 - 3) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 43-18 ATS (+23.2 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 126-93 ATS (+23.7 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 126-93 ATS (+23.7 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 101-73 ATS (+20.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 58-85 ATS (-35.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (1 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) at DETROIT (2 - 0 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) at BUFFALO (3 - 0) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 264-201 ATS (+42.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 264-201 ATS (+42.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-94 ATS (+22.6 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-94 ATS (+22.6 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 204-147 ATS (+42.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 195-147 ATS (+33.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 104-71 ATS (+25.9 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-85 ATS (+32.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 72-46 ATS (+21.4 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-87 ATS (+32.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (1 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 2) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 53-29 ATS (+21.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
ATLANTA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 2) vs. LA RAMS (3 - 0) - 9/29/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS is 196-240 ATS (-68.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 196-240 ATS (-68.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 141-189 ATS (-66.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 150-190 ATS (-59.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 71-103 ATS (-42.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (2 - 1) at ARIZONA (0 - 2 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 46-23 ATS (+20.7 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
ARIZONA is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (2 - 1) at CHICAGO (1 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 2) at DENVER (0 - 3) - 9/29/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 62-88 ATS (-34.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (3 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 30

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CINCINNATI (0 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 3) - 9/30/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 108-80 ATS (+20.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 53-34 ATS (+15.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 09-24-2019, 10:40 AM

NFL

Week 4

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 26

Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Green Bay's last 13 games
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Green Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games at home
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Green Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Philadelphia Eagles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay

Sunday, September 29

Houston Texans
Houston is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Houston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Carolina is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Tennessee is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Baltimore is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 9 games at home
Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Baltimore is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 8-16-1 SU in its last 25 games
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 3-19 SU in its last 22 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Cleveland is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Buffalo's last 25 games at home
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of New England's last 15 games
New England is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
New England is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 8 games on the road
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo

Detroit Lions
Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 11 games
Kansas City is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Kansas City is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games on the road
Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Kansas City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Detroit

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 12 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Indianapolis's last 22 games at home
Indianapolis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Oakland
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Oakland is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Indianapolis
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis

Miami Dolphins
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Miami's last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games at home
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Miami's last 15 games when playing LA Chargers
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Chargers is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
LA Chargers is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
LA Chargers is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of LA Chargers's last 15 games when playing Miami
LA Chargers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami

New York Giants
NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games
NY Giants is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
NY Giants is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of NY Giants's last 21 games at home
NY Giants is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Washington
NY Giants is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Washington
NY Giants is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
NY Giants is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of NY Giants's last 16 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Redskins
Washington is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing NY Giants
Washington is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Washington is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington's last 16 games when playing on the road against NY Giants

Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 12 games at home
Arizona is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Arizona is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
Arizona is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 15 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games
Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Seattle is 5-0-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle's last 15 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Rams is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games
LA Rams is 3-4-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
LA Rams is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
LA Rams is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
LA Rams is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
Tampa Bay is 6-9-3 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Tampa Bay's last 18 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing LA Rams
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams

Denver Broncos
Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 12 games
Denver is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games
Jacksonville is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Denver
Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
Chicago is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games
Chicago is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Chicago is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chicago's last 15 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Chicago is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Minnesota's last 15 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Minnesota is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
New Orleans is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 12 games
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
New Orleans is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Dallas
New Orleans is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Dallas
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Dallas's last 14 games on the road
Dallas is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing New Orleans
Dallas is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Dallas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

Monday, September 30

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Pittsburgh's last 16 games at home
Pittsburgh is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

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**Udog** · 09-24-2019, 10:42 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Eagles (1-2) @ Packers (3-0)— Green Bay won its first three games, allowing only four TD’s on 36 drives, forcing 15 3/outs. Packers are 22-12-1 ATS in last 35 games as a home favorite, but they’ve converted only 9-36 third down plays this year. Pack has eight takeaways (+6) in three games. Philly lost last two games by total of 7 points; Eagle receivers dropped seven balls LW, had three offensive PI calls. Philly trailed all three games at half, outscored 50-23; under Pederson, Eagles are 6-7 ATS as a road underdog. Packers won five of last six series games; teams split last four series games played here. Eagles won 53-20 in last visit here, in 2014. NFC East teams are 2-4 ATS outside the division; NFC North teams are 6-2-1.

Panthers (1-2) @ Houston (2-1)— Allen’s first start LW (19-26/261, 4 TD’s) was in his home state; now he plays in Houston, where he played in college two years ago. Carolina had four TD drives of 75+ yards LW, ran ball for 173 yards; they’re 23-11 ATS in last 34 games as a road dog, 10-6 in last 16 games vs AFC foes. Texans are 16-9-1 ATS in last 26 games as a HF, 7-7 in last 14; they’ve converted 19-38 third down plays, scored six TD’s on seven trips to red zone. Panthers won last two series games, 28-13/24-17- they split two visits here. NFC South teams are 3-7 vs spread in non-division games; AFC South teams are 5-1.

Browns (1-2) @ Ravens (2-1)— Ravens are 30-10 vs Cleveland, winning six of last seven series games; two meetings LY were decided by total of five points. Browns are 1-10 in Baltimore, losing last three visits here, by 21-14-2 points. Cleveland lost two of first three games, with only win over Jet squad that played its #2-3 QB’s; Browns scored only 26 points on eight trips to red zone, converted only 11-39 third down plays. Cleveland is 14-19 ATS in last 33 games as a road dog. Ravens ran ball for 650 yards in their 2-1 start; they’ve had 20 plays of 20+ yards, and have not turned ball over yet this year, but they also allowed 7.7/7.9 yards/pass attempt in last two games, vs Arizona/KC.

Redskins (0-3) @ Giants (1-2)— Rookie QB Jones was 23-36/336 passing in his first NFL start, rallying Big Blue back from 28-10 halftime deficit; they’ve been outscored 70-24 in first half of games this year, and allowed 1,381 TY already. Star RB Barkley is out 6-8 weeks, which makes them pass-heavy. NYG is 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite. Short week for 0-3 Redskins, who allowed 32-31-31 points so far; opponents converted 26-41 third down plays. Keenum turned ball over five times Monday; when do they turn to rookie QB Haskins? Skins are 12-8 ATS in last 20 games as a road dog. Teams split last eight series games, with Washington winning first meeting the last four years; Skins lost five of last seven series games played here.

Chargers (1-2) @ Dolphins (0-3)— Chargers lost last eight visits to South Beach, with last win here a great 41-38 OT win in ’81 playoffs, but Miami is off to a dreadful start this year, outscored by 133-16, allowing 16 TD’s on 30 drives- they’ve been outscored 68-0 in second half of games. Dolphins played better LW in Dallas with Rosen at QB, but they still lost 31-6; Miami allowed 626 rushing yards in three games. Banged-up Chargers lost last two games, scoring total of three second half points- they allowed 8.2/9.4 yards/pass attempt in their losses, have been outscored 45-16 in 2nd half of games. This is only 5th time since 1980 that an NFL team was a road fave of 17+ points. AFC West teams are 2-4 ATS outside the division; AFC East teams are 2-5.

Raiders (1-2) @ Colts (2-1)— Oakland is 2-12-2 ATS in its last 16 true road games, 3-13-1 in last 17 games as a road underdog; they have only one takeaway (-1)), allowed 8.3 yds/pass attempt to Cousins, 7.3 to Flacco- they gave up eight TD’s on 20 drives the last two games. Indy won its last two games by total of five points, after losing their opener in OT; they’re 6-3-1 in its last ten games as a home favorite. Colts converted 19-35 third down plays this month. Indy won five of last six series games, winning 42-28 in Oakland LY; teams split last four meetings here, with Raiders’ last visit in 2013. AFC West teams are 3-5 ATS outside the division; AFC South teams are 5-1.

Chiefs (3-0) @ Lions (2-0-1)— KC scored 33.7 ppg in their 3-0 start, scoring 12 TD’s on 28 drives; they’ve been up 10+ points at halftime in all three games. Chiefs have seven TD plays of 27+ yards; they’re 12-5 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite. Detroit is off to its best start since a 4-0 start in 2011; both their wins are by a FG. Lions had two takeaways in all three games (+2); they were outgained by 85 yards in each of their last two games. Detroit is 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog. KC is 8-5 in series games but lost last two visits here; Chiefs’ last win Motor City was in ’96. AFC West teams are 3-5 ATS outside the division; NFC North teams are 6-2-1. Mahomes was 16-31/205 in OT loss vs NE in playoffs LY; he figures to see a similar-style defense in this game.

Patriots (3-0) @ Bills (3-0)— Exciting start for Buffalo (3-0 for first time since 2011); they’ve run ball for 151.3 ypg, but only one of three QB’s they’ve faced is still that team’s starter. All three of their games stayed under the total. Under McDermott, Bills are 3-5 ATS as a home underdog; they’re stepping way up in class here, against a New England team that hasn’t allowed an offensive TD on 34 drives this year, outscoring first three foes 106-17, 53-0 in first half. Over last six years, NE is 5-10 ATS as a divisional road favorite. Patriots won 28 of last 30 meetings (last five by 12+ points), winning last seven trips here, five by 15+ points.

Titans (1-2) @ Falcons (1-2)— Tennessee scored total of 24 points in losing its last two games after a 43-13 win in their opener at Cleveland; under Vrabel, Titans are 4-2 as a road underdog- they’re 5-9 ATS in last 14 games on artificial turf, 10-5-1 in last 16 games vs NFC teams. Home side won all three Falcon games; under Quinn, Atlanta is 9-18 ATS when laying points at home. Last 2+ years, Falcons are 0-11 ATS vs AFC opponents. Atlanta ran ball for only 74.3 ypg in its first three games; they’ve been outscored 47-13 in first half of games. Atlanta won last two series games, 23-17/10-7; Titans lost five of seven visits here. NFC South teams are 3-7 vs spread; AFC South teams are 5-1.

Buccaneers (1-2) @ Rams (3-0)— Tampa Bay blew 28-10 halftime lead at home LW, losing 32-31 when they missed short FG on last play of game. Bucs led all three games at the half but have been outscored 52-23 in 2nd half- they’re 4-6-4 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog. Rams survived three turnovers (-2), missed FG to escape Cleveland with a 20-13 win; under McVay, LA is 7-8 as a home favorite. In their last two games, Rams allowed only one TD on 21 drives. Rams have only one first half TD on 16 drives. LA won last five series games, with last loss in ’10; Bucs lost last three series road games, by 7-8-10 points. NFC South teams are 3-7 vs spread; NFC West teams are 8-4, but 1-4 as home favorites.

Seahawks (2-1) @ Cardinals (0-2-1)— Seattle is 8-4-1 in last 13 series games, winning last five visits to the desert (22-16/20-17 last two years). Seahawks’ two wins this year are by total of three points; they allowed 20+ points in all three games, but gave up TD’s on offense, special teams vs Saints LW. Under Carroll, Seahawks are 15-18-1 ATS as a road favorite, 4-10-1 in division games. Arizona has been outscored 48-19 in first half of its games; Murray was sacked eight times LW, as Cardinals averaged only 2.5 yards/pass attempt. Redbird defense allowed 413+ TY in all three of its games. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 6-9 ATS this season, 2-2 in divisional games.

Vikings (2-1) @ Bears (2-1)— Minnesota has run ball for 193.7 ypg in its 2-1 start, scoring 10 TD’s on 33 drives. Cousins threw total of 31 passes in the two wins, 32 in the loss at Green Bay. Vikings are 4-8 ATS in last dozen games as a road underdog, 7-10 in last 17 games on natural grass. Short week for Bears after their Monday night win; Chicago allowed total of only 206 RY in their three wins- Bear defense had five takeaways vs a bad Washington team. Under Nagy, Chicago is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite. Chicago swept the Vikings 25-20/24-10 LY, but they’re still 5-8 in last 13 series games; teams split last four meetings played here.

Jaguars (1-2) @ Broncos (0-3)— Denver still has no sacks, no takeaways (-4); they’ve scored four TD’s on 27 drives, were outscored 37-13 in first half of games. Since ’15, Broncos are 5-12-3 ATS as a home favorite. Jacksonville had extra prep time for this- they won last Thursday. Jaguars are 9-8-1 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog; they allowed total of only 20 points in last two games, giving up two TD’s on 20 drives. Jags’ offense scored only 28 points on seven trips to red zone. Denver won last two meetings, 35-19/20-10; Jaguars lost four of six visits here, with last one in ’13. AFC West teams are 3-5 ATS outside the division; AFC South teams are 5-1.

Cowboys (3-0) @ Saints (2-1)— Dallas won its first three games, running ball for 213-235 yards the last two weeks; Cowboys scored 35-31-31 points in their wins, outscoring foes 45-20 in first half, but playing Saints here is moving up in class. Dallas is 13-5-1 in last 19 games as a home dog. Saints scored TD’s on defense, special teams in their win at Seattle LW; they figure to be less dynamic on offense (7-24 on 3rd down last two games) with Brees out. NO covered six of last seven tries as a home underdog. Saints won nine of last 12 series games, but lost 13-10 in Dallas LY; Dallas lost four of last five visits here, with lone win in ’09. NFC East teams are 2-4 ATS outside the division; NFC South teams are 3-7.

Bengals (0-3) @ Steelers (0-3)— Third road game in four weeks for Bengals, who covered eight of last ten tries as a road underdog- they lost first two road games by total of five points. Bengals have yet to run ball 20 times in a game; they’ve turned ball over eight times (-4), were outscored 38-10 in first half of last two games. Steelers are 0-3 for first time since 2013, losing last two games by total of six points. Pitt has converted only 9-35 on third down; they completed only two passes LW that went more than one yard downfield, in Rudolph’s first NFL start. Pitt won last eight series games, winning 28-21/16-13 LY; Bengals lost last three visits here, by 8-15-3 points.

**Udog** · 09-24-2019, 10:42 AM

NFL Week 4 odds: Can Bills measure up to Patriots in battle of AFC East unbeatens?
Patrick Everson

Josh Allen has helped Buffalo to a 3-0 SU and ATS mark, but the first real test of the season awaits in Week 4. The Bills opened as 7-point home underdogs against the Patriots, who are also 3-0 (2-1 ATS).

The NFL regular season’s first month wraps up with some intriguing Week 4 matchups, including a battle of unbeatens in the AFC East. Covers checks in on that contest and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+7)

It’s no surprise at all that defending Super Bowl champion New England – despite the Antonio Brown drama – sits unbeaten through three weeks. The Patriots (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) had no trouble with the New York Jets on Sunday, building a 30-0 lead and coasting 30-14 as huge 20.5-point home favorites.

Buffalo being unbeaten is perhaps a bit of a surprise, since it opened with two straight road games – both at MetLife Stadium, where they beat the Jets and Giants. In Week 3, the Bills (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) blew all of a 14-0 halftime lead to Cincinnati, but got a late TD to win 21-17 as 5.5-point home faves.

“Buffalo is 3-0 but has done it against a super easy schedule,” Murray said. “We will find out a lot about Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense in this game. Their defense is legit.”

There weren’t enough takers on either side Sunday night to move the needle, as the line remained 7 flat.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (+3)

Dallas has had little trouble through three weeks, on the field or for bettors, going 3-0 SU and ATS. The Cowboys rolled over hapless Miami 31-6 Sunday to cover as hefty 22-point home favorites.

New Orleans lost Drew Brees to a thumb injury in Week 2 and likely won’t have his services for a few more weeks. However, the Saints (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) went to Seattle as 5-point pups and exited with a 33-27 outright victory behind Teddy Bridgewater.

Brees’ absence certainly takes the luster off this Sunday night matchup, but Dallas backers were interested from the jump.

“We took money immediately on Dallas and moved to -3 (-120),” Murray said of a price adjustment on the Cowboys, noting he expects more Pokes money to come. “The books will need the Saints big in this game.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Green Bay is also out of the gate 3-0 SU and has come through for bettors all three weeks, as well. The Packers took care of Denver on Sunday, going off as 7-point home favorites and claiming a 27-16 victory.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia has struggled in the early going, dropping two in a row while failing to cash in any of its three games. On Sunday, the Eagles (1-2 SU) were 4-point home faves against Detroit, trailed 20-10 at halftime and couldn’t quite get there in a 27-24 loss.

Philly also isn’t in a good spot for a short turnaround, playing Green Bay under the Thursday night lights.

“The Eagles are very banged up right now,” Murray said. “The Packers are 3-0 but weren’t overly impressive on offense today. Denver turnovers gave them some short fields to work with.”

This game also saw no early movement Sunday night.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Minnesota hopes it can bottle up some of its home success and take it on the road in Week 4. The Vikings (2-1 SU and ATS) rolled in in Weeks 1 and 3 at home, then fell in between at Green Bay. On Sunday, the Vikes discarded visiting Oakland 34-14 laying 8.5 points.

Chicago still has some Week 3 work to do, playing in the Monday nighter at Washington. The Bears (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) have yet to look like the 12-4 SU and ATS team of last year. After an extremely lackluster Week 1 home loss to Green Bay, the Bears barely escaped Denver with a 16-14 win on a last-second 53-yard field goal, failing to cover as 3-point favorites.

“It’s a short week for the Bears, and they will come home to host the Vikings in a critical division game,” Murray said. “Can Kirk Cousins avoid turning the ball over? If he does, I think the Vikings win on the road.”

While the Bears opened -2.5, the price at that number was -120. As of Sunday night, there were no moves.

**Udog** · 09-24-2019, 10:44 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 4
September 23, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Week of September 23rd

If you were able to catch last week's piece you'll know that the angle of backing those winless ATS teams out on the road in Week 3 turned out to be profitable once again.

Seven different teams fit that role for Week 3, and with Chicago's outcome still pending tonight, the other six (Carolina, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Miami, NYG, NYJ) ended up going 5-1 ATS. Only the hapless Dolphins failed to cover the number on Sunday, while three of those teams (Carolina, New Orleans, NYG) managed to pull off the outright victory as well.

Going against the Rams was a result that most oddsmakers across the country wanted to see cash, but LA was having none of it. It's hard to say if LA went out and got that game on SNF vs the Browns, or if Cleveland just remains too undisciplined for their own good. The Browns over-thought some playcalling decisions as well, and yet, they still had a 1st and goal to tie the game with under a minute left. Fading the money earners just didn't work out on Sunday night.

This week we are staying in the NFL, and while something like discussing the fact that division games are on a 4-10 O/U run so far in 2019 – keep that in mind for the Cleveland/Baltimore, New England/Buffalo, Washington/NYG, Seattle/Arizona, Minnesota/Chicago, and Cincinnati/Pittsburgh games next week – there are actually two more specific spots involving two of the seven 3-0 SU teams in this league that need to come to light. With Detroit being 2-0-1 SU there are actually eight remaining unbeaten squads, but it's two that entered 2019 as legit Super Bowl contenders that present solid betting angles. So let's get right to them.

Who's Hot

Games featuring an AFC team vs. NFC team with the home side as underdogs are a perfect 5-0 to the 'Under' in 2019

Non-conference games tend to lack the hatred something like rivalry or even conference tilts bring has there can be lingering memories from recent playoffs etc that add extra elements to those games. But unless you are one of the few teams that have met New England in the Super Bowl in recent years, AFC/NFC games tend to lack the animosity that can be associated with 'under' plays. There isn't the same type of familiarity in terms of understanding what the opposition prefers to run, and coaching staffs prefer to focus on more immediate concerns like divisional rivals because the easiest path to a playoff berth is by winning one's division.

So while you will hear thoughts about non-conference games being ones that can fly 'over' the number more often given that lack of hatred, that's not particularly been the case this year (6-8 O/U overall this year) in general. But more specifically, when the home team is catching points in these non-conference tilts, you only want to look low. Week 4 brings us only one specific spot where this run will be tested, as it does involve Patrick Mahomes and the high-powered, undefeated, Kansas City Chiefs.

KC is laying about a TD in Detroit on Sunday, and the total has already seen the vig get a few more cents added to the 'over' side of things. Both teams do own a 2-1 O/U record on the year as well, and with KC averaging 33.7 points per game and Detroit averaging 22.3 points per game offensively, just having both sides hit those averages would see an 'over' ticket cash.

However, defensively, neither side gives up more then 21.3 points per game on average, and given the specific home/road splits here, KC's defense comes in at 18 ppg allowed on the road, with Detroit clocking in at 10 ppg at home. Extremely small sample size for those numbers to be sure, but if you zoom out and look at the scenario on the whole – home underdog against a non-conference team – you can see why 'unders' in these games do tend to make a lot of sense.

First off, as a home underdog, you know you are up against it in terms of talent, skill, etc and there are certain generic strategies in that role that can/should be employed. Shortening the game by controlling time of possession and moving the sticks with the running game is one of those, and it doesn't matter who the Chiefs opponent is or where they are playing, limiting KC's time with the ball is something all 29 other teams are looking to do against KC. Detroit may not have the best running game in the league, but Stafford's dink-and-dunk approach throwing the ball plays into that as well.

Furthermore, offensively execution tends to come a bit tougher in hostile territory for these road favorites. Whether it be crowd noise, general discomfort, or the home dog defense 'rising up' to play over their heads against a better squad, KC's offense might not work as smoothly as some may think. KC might have scored 61 points in their last two games combined, but you take out the 2nd quarter, and the Chiefs just have 10 total points in all of those six other frames. They've been blanked in four of those quarters so it's not like they can't be held down as it is.

So chances are we see this total likely go higher before it goes down, but with that hook sitting there on a key number like 53 and plus-money on the 'under' to boot, it may not hurt to get at least a partial unit down on this 'under' in Week 4 and go from there.

Who's Not

Backing home favorites in the first five weeks of the season, prior to playing a road game on Thursday Night Football
(2-9 ATS and SU last three years)

Thursday Night football games continue to generally be slopfests in terms of quality of play as the short week is just tough to overcome for all involved. Maybe one day that will change and we can get rid of them all together (highly doubtful) and have weekly MNF double-headers or something instead, but until then, I'll gladly try to use an angle like this to cash.

Simply put, when teams are laying chalk at home the Sunday prior, and then have a quick turnaround WITH travel for TNF, it's those Sunday games that tend to get glossed over. Not only are home favorites in that role 2-9 against the number, but ALL NINE ATS losses have been outright losers as well. That's really quite shocking when you step back and think about it.

It's not like they are loaded with losses by two or three-point home favorites either. Last year we saw Minnesota lose to Buffalo (27-6) laying 16.5 points prior to a road TNF game, and even the great New England Patriots fell victim to this trend back in 2017 when they lost at home to Carolina (33-30) as nine-point home chalk.

And while it may feel like after last week's piece, I am picking on LA Rams fans/backers, I can assure you that I'm not. But this week, it's the undefeated Los Angeles Rams who find themselves in this dreaded role, currently laying -10.5 at home to a visiting Tampa team prior to the Rams travelling to Seattle for a divisional game on TNF in Week 5.

Considering Tampa's likely to be quite salty this week after blowing that big lead at home to the New York Giants with a rookie QB starting, it's not hard to figure the Bucs will be out to be at their best this Sunday. Offensively, they are more then capable of keeping up with LA should the game be a back-and-forth affair, and Tampa themselves know how hard it is being in the role that LA finds themselves in, as the Bucs got burned by being in that spot in Week 1 as small home chalk to the 49ers.

That Bucks loss in Week 1 started the 0-3 ATS and SU run this trend has been on just this year alone with Philly losing at home yesterday as the latest victim. So my apologies go out to Rams supporters this week for the second week in a row. You proved me wrong last week, and hopefully as the year goes on the Rams will find themselves in a favorable 'play on' role for one of these pieces, but it's taking the points or nothing with Tampa Bay for me this weekend.

**Udog** · 09-24-2019, 10:48 AM

Tech Trends - Week 4
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Sept. 26

PHILADELPHIA at GREEN BAY (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Birds 3-7 vs. line last 11 reg season games. Pack “under” 9-3-1 last 13 since mid-2018.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Packers, based on “totals” and team trends

Sunday, Sept. 29

CAROLINA at HOUSTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers on 3-8 spread skid since late 2018, though off of win at Arizona. Also “under” 5-3 last eight since late 2018. Rivera was 12-4 as dog entering last season but just 5-5 in role since. Texans 9-3-1 last 13 vs. spread reg season since mid 2018. Also “under” 8-3 last 11 at NRG Stadium.
Tech Edge: Panthers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brownies 12-8 last 20 on board, also 10-4 last 14 as dog and covered both last year vs. Ravens. Balt 5-3-1 vs. line reg season since late 2018, though only 1-6-1 vs. line last 8 at M&T Bank Stadium.
Tech Edge: Browns and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

WASHINGTON at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Skins have covered 5 of last 7 on road, while G-Men 1-7-1 vs. spread last nine at MetLife. NY “over” 7-3 last ten since mid 2018, Skins "over" first three in 2019.
Tech Edge: Redskins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

L.A. CHARGERS at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Outside of L.A. City limits, Chargers 11-3-2 vs. line reg season since moving from San Diego in 2017 (0-1 TY however). Bolts also “under” 10-5 last 15 since early 2018. Dolphins no covers last six since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Chargers and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

OAKLAND at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 2-13-1 last 16 as road dog, also “under” 5-1-1 last seven since late 2018. Colts 7-4-1 vs. points reg season since mid-2018.
Tech Edge: Colts and “under,” based on team and “totals’ trends.

KANSAS CITY at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Andy Reid 12-1 vs. spread in first five weeks of campaigns since 2017, also 7-0 vs. line away in first five weeks of seasons since 2017. Chiefs 9-2 vs. line last 11 on road and “over” 7-2 last 9 reg season. Lions however are “under” 8-2 last ten since mid-2018.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and slight to "over," , based on team trends.

NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Pats have owned this series for 15 years, they’re 28-3 SU the last 31 games, with Brady not involved in two of the Bills’ wins. Pats have also covered 4 of last 5 and Belichick on 13-6 spread run since early 2018. Belichick “under” 10-2 last 12 in reg season play. Bills have covered 4 of last 5 since late 2018. “Under” 5-2 last seven meetings.
Tech Edge: Patriots and “under,” based on series and Belichick trends.

TENNESSEE at ATLANTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs only 6-13 vs. line since start of 2018, a bit better 4-5 at home. Falcs “under” 6-4 last ten since late 2018. Titans 3-7 last ten on board since mid 2018, “under” 6-3 last nine away from Nissan.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals’ trends.

TAMPA BAY at L.A. RAMS (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bucs 4-6-4 as road dog since 2017. TB also “under” 7-2 last 0 since late 2018. Rams have now covered last five in reg season play and 7 of last 8 overall, also “over” 7-3-1 last 11 at home reg season.
Tech Edge: Rams and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SEATTLE at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Cards 4-0-1 vs. line last five meetings. Hawks also “over” last four away. Carroll 4-7-1 last 11 as road chalk.
Tech Edge: Cards and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Vikes just 1-4 vs. spread last five away, 2-5 as dog since last season. Zimmer also “under” 15-6-1 last 21 since late 2017, Though "over" on Monday at Redskins, Bears "under" 9-1 last ten since late 2018.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Bears, based on “totals’ and team trends.

JACKSONVILLE at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Broncos 1-6-1 as home chalk since 2017, and “under” 11-0-1 since mid 2018. Jags “under” 5-1 last six since late 2018, 13-7 “under” since late 2017.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Jags, based on “totals” and team trends.

DALLAS at NEW ORLEANS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Dak 9-1-1 vs. spread last ten in reg season, 5-2 last seven vs. spread away. Saints no covers last five at Superdome and “under” 6-4 reg season since mid-2018.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Monday, Sept. 30

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Cincy now on 6-1 spread run since late 2018. Road team has covered 5 straight and 7 of last 8 in series. Bengals “under” 5-1-2 last eight since late 2018 and “unders” 4-1 last five in series.
Tech Edge: Bengals and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.

**Udog** · 09-25-2019, 10:53 AM

By: Josh Inglis

HOLD ON TIGHT

The Arizona Cardinals have been getting crushed by opposing tight ends through three games. In total, the Cardinals have allowed 20 catches for 318 yards and four scores to the position. The player most responsible for this is safety D.J. Swearinger. The man who was unwanted in Washington has a PFF grade of 45.9 and has allowed over a 70 percent completion rate.

Up next in the plus matchup is Seattle Seahawks TE Will Dissly, who has three touchdowns on 11 catches over his last two games. With quarterback Russel Wilson proving he can sling it with the best — 706 yards passing in his past two outings — Dissly has a great chance to go Over any of his props this week.

His prop markets will open soon and we like the Overs on his reception total at less than five, receiving yards at less than 56 and will certainly be playing his anytime score prop, which will be plus money.

PRIME TIME 6-POINT TEASER

Last week we hit our three-team, 6-point, prime time teaser (+160) with three Unders. This week’s prime time games may be forcing us in the other direction.

PHI/GBY Over 39: The Philadelphia Eagles own the sixth-worst defense in points per play but have a Top-10 scoring offense which works well for this teased total. Their defense is averaging three touchdowns against some poor offenses — Washington, Atlanta and Detroit. We see Wentz and Rodgers putting up some points on Thursday.

DAL/NO Over 41: Combined, the Dallas Cowboys and the New Orleans Saints have eclipsed this total in four of their six games. Dallas is a Top-3 offense in yards per game while scoring three red-zone touchdowns a game this year.

The Saints showed they aren’t ready to roll over and die with Teddy Bridgewater under center and are still a threat to put up points on the turf in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, especially against a Dallas team who has faced the Dolphins, Redskins and Giants.

CIN/PIT Over 37.5: This one scares me the most, but ultimately this is a great matchup for points as the Cincinnati Bengals No. 3 passing offense squares off against the Pittsburgh’s second-worst passing defense. With both teams in the bottom-eight in yards per rush attempt, look for the Bengals and Steelers to settle Monday’s match through the air. Maybe even look for the special team or defensive score prop (+225)

CAPITAL NONE

We need to put this one out there while the stink of the Washington Redskins is still fresh in our olfactory senses. The hot mess that is the Redskins has been bad, but especially bad in the first quarter this year.

In their last 12 games, the team with taxation but no representation has scored a total of ...one touchdown in the opening frame. If you watched Monday Night Football, then you know that a TD isn’t happening anytime soon with that quarterback play, a short week and a divisional game on deck.

Washington Under 0.5 first-quarter touchdowns is too costly at -175 while its first-quarter team total of 3.5 is tempting, but not at -152. If you can find better odds for those bets or don’t mind the juice, take them.

We’re going to grab the first-quarter Under 7.5 (+105) as we hope the Redskins try to hide their passing game and Daniel Jones struggles early after last week’s roller coaster.

KICKING IT IN L.A.

Tampa Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has left some things to be desired when it comes to execution. The former first-overall pick sits 25th in QBR, below Marcus Mariota and Josh Rosen.

The Bucs have scored a touchdown on just 27 percent of their red-zone trips this year — only better than the Miami Dolphins. This is made even worse by the fact that Tampa Bay is averaging the 10th most red-zone scoring attempts per game. We won’t say no to you if you want to play the Buccaneers’ first score FG (+137).

It makes sense that Jameis and his offense are tied for the lead the league in field goals attempted per game at three. The Los Angeles Rams are also averaging three three-point tries a game which makes the Over 3.5 field goals (-120) a great play, in our opinion. With two struggling offenses and a pair of defenses that are allowing the most and third-most field goal attempts a game, this is our spot for this week’s kicking prop.

SAY IT AIN’T SO, SONY

We’re going back to fading Sony Michel after cashing on his Under 83.5 rushing yards last week. Sometimes you have to stick with what’s working, or not working in Sony’s case.

The running back has still forced one missed tackle on 45 rushing attempts with 1.67 yards after contact per attempt and blue skies aren’t on the forecast for last year’s 900-plus yard runner. Michel saw just 22 percent of the offensive snaps last week in a nothing game against the Jets.

With Rex Burkhead getting more action (74 percent) and facing a Buffalo Bills rushing defense that is allowing just 88 rushing yards a game, we’re going back-to-back weeks on the Michel’s Under and will take it as low as 55 yards.

**Udog** · 09-25-2019, 10:55 AM

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 4 odds: If you're counting on the Cowboys to cover, do it now
Jason Logan

You have America's Team taking an undefeated record to New Orleans to face a backup QB on Sunday Night Football. Books are bracing for Cowboys money.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL board each week.

Week 4 marks the quarter turn of the schedule, which means teams suffering from slow starts to 2019 are beginning to panic and those teams exceeding expectations are attempting to ride that early-season momentum. How the betting markets react to those results will shape the line movement heading into kickoff, so let’s try to stay ahead of the curve.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: DALLAS COWBOYS (-2.5) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

I’ll be the first to tell you, Cowboys fans can be a bit much. And I am one. Dallas is 3-0 heading to the Big Easy on Sunday night, with a belly full of fudgy facts and figures after eating up the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins.

America’s Team opened around a field-goal favorite for this primetime game, and early play from the wiseguys has slimmed that spread as low as -2.5 at some select books. If you can get Dallas under a field goal, do it now because Dallas fans will be doubling down come Sunday evening.

Books have already seen a large amount of public play on the Cowboys and predict the most popular team in football to draw lopsided money versus a Saints team playing without star QB Drew Brees. Even though backup Teddy Bridgewater was solid in a win at Seattle, this spread will likely creep to Dallas -3.5 by the time the late-afternoon games wrap.

If you’re among the masses with money to get down on Dallas, get it in now rather than later.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT DETROIT LIONS (+6)

If you fear that you missed the boat on the early line movement for this non-conference clash, you’ll likely get a second shot later in the week. Kansas City opened as a 6-point road favorite in the Motor City and early play on the Chiefs pumped this to a full touchdown before sharp buyback on the Lions returned the spread to the opener.

I can see why getting the home side at a full seven points is appealing to the pros. Kansas City is playing its third road game in four weeks and is ripe for a letdown after a physical win over the Ravens at home in Week 3. Detroit is undefeated at 2-0-1 SU and would be a perfect 3-0 if not for a huge fourth-quarter collapse against Arizona in Week 1.

The public, however, will be blinded by the Chiefs’ undefeated mark and as we get closer to Sunday, money will jump on K.C. – especially seeing it under a touchdown. If you like the Lions, wait it out. You’ll likely see the +6.5 and +7 again before the whistle blows.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: OVER 46 CAROLINA AT HOUSTON

This total is already starting to tick up at some sportsbooks, with the early money putting its faith in Carolina backup Kyle Allen. The second-year QB was fantastic in place of the injured Cam Newton in Week 3, so much so that it appears the franchise is in no rush to return its star player. And after the way Newton performed in the first two weeks, can you blame the Panthers?

Carolina’s offense is set up for Allen to succeed. He has a savvy TE in Greg Olsen to act as safety blanket, a dynamic RB in Christian McCaffery to keep opposing pass rushers guessing and serve as a vital checkdown, and two speedsters in D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel to stretch the field and open up space underneath. Allen may have to use those deep-strike targets more to keep pace in Week 4.

The Texans can put up points in a hurry. Take out that ho-hum effort versus Jacksonville in Week 2, and Houston is putting up almost 400 yards per game. This is one of the best receiving corps in the league (something I’ve said every week) and Deshaun Watson is really finding him form, with 11.6 yards per completion, only one interception, and sitting fifth in Total QBR.

Given the early opinion on this total and with this game being played on the fast turf track inside NRG Stadium (Interesting/Meaningless trend: Carolina 22-5 Over/Under in last 27 games on turf), the Over would be best bet at 46 now – if you’re into that sort of thing.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 43.5 CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH

In rare air for a primetime matchup, those leaning towards the Over for Monday Night Football’s AFC North war between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh may want to wait it out. Most weeks, a night game means blind backing for the Over from the public, but this rivalry isn’t selling the points like it should.

The Steelers are without QB Ben Roethlisberger and looking to backup Mason Rudolph to keep them competitive. The reviews are still out on the former Oklahoma State gunslinger, but he did show flashes of big-play potential on both TD strikes last Sunday and Pittsburgh put up 20 points despite having the football for less than 24 minutes in Week 3.

The Steelers defense is the real issue. Pittsburgh has allowed 28.3 points per game through the first three weeks and has been torched for almost 303 passing yards an outing (second most in the NFL). The Steelers have allowed 15 passing plays of 20 or more yards in those contests and take on the Bengals' up-tempo attack that thrives on the big plays (14 passing plays of 20-plus).

Cincinnati got off to a slow start at Buffalo in Week 3 but snapped out of it just in time to score 17 second-half points and cover the +6 in the loss. There’s a lot of potential for this Bengals offense – something that can’t be said for the defense. Between missed tackles and giving up 6.4 yards per play, Cincy sits 27th in points allowed at 27.7 per game. With two piss-poor defenses, the prospect for points, and lots of them, is great.

This one goes against the traditional MNF grain (as well as the Under trend in this divisional rivalry: 2-5 O/U last seven meetings), but wait to see if this continues to drop (fell from as high as 44 to as low as 43 at some spots) and be the Over later in the Week 4 finale.

**Udog** · 09-25-2019, 10:58 AM

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 4 odds: Life is a highway for the road-weary Chiefs
Jason Logan

The Chiefs find themselves back in the visitors locker room for the third time in the first four weeks of the season when they visit the Lions in Detroit this Sunday.

In the daily battle against the big bad bookies, sports bettors have an arsenal of weapons at their disposal – some more effective than others.

One of the most popular methods of getting a leg up on the sportsbooks is situational handicapping: factoring in unique situations for the teams involved. Some of the more common situational plays – or spot bets – are “letdowns”, “lookaheads”, and “schedule” spots.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan combs through the Week 4 schedule and highlights the best opportunities for spot bettors to take advantage of the NFL odds.

LETDOWN SPOT: WASHINGTON REDSKINS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (-3, 49)

This letdown spot started setting the table back on April 25. That was Day 1 of the 2019 NFL Draft, on which the Giants selected Duke QB Daniel Jones with the sixth-overall pick. It was a baffling pick that was instantly criticized and continued to be so until Jones showed flashes of brilliance in the preseason.

New York finally pulled the plug on Eli Manning’s time as the starter versus the Buccaneers in Week 3, turning the keys to the franchise over to the 22-year-old rookie. And Jones stepped up, passing for two touchdowns and running in two more with RB Saquon Barkley on the sideline with an ankle sprain. The Giants got the win thanks to a botched last-second field goal attempt from Tampa Bay, and the G-Men’s front office breathed a collective sigh of relief. They were right and everybody else was wrong. Suck it.

That thrilling win (and “I told you so!” moment) sets up New York for a letdown spot in Week 4, hosting the rival Redskins as a 3-point favorite. As mentioned, Jones doesn’t have Barkley to draw the eye of the defense and was sacked five times in the squeaker at Tampa last Sunday. The Redskins' rotten defense has been roughed up, but they’ve also been on the field an average of 33:08 minutes per game (fourth most) thanks to turnovers from the offense. If the stop unit can force some turnovers of its own versus a rookie QB, the Giants could fall for this longgggggggg-running letdown.

LOOKAHEAD SPOT: OAKLAND RAIDERS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7, 45)

Even the pros get caught fantasizing. Given their circumstances entering the season (you know? Their franchise QB abruptly packing it in), a 2-1 start to the 2019 schedule has to have the Colts feeling good about their chances in the AFC South. And hell, if not for Adam Vinatieri finally showing cracks in his once-unflappable leg, Indianapolis could be 3-0 in the post-Andrew Luck era.

The Colts have great shot at jumping to 3-1 with the road-rashed Raiders coming to town in Week 4. Oakland (which is on a crazy 49-day gap between home games) lost at Minnesota in an early 1 p.m. ET starts in Week 3 and travels to London, England for Week 5 (vs. Chicago) after this 1 p.m. ET game in Indy Sunday. Shouldn’t be too much trouble for the red-hot Colts, right?

Indianapolis could get caught looking past the tarnished Silver and Black and ahead to Week 5 when they travel to dreaded Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. There are also key injuries on both sides of the ball for the Colts heading into this Sunday’s game, with top WR T.Y. Hilton dealing with a nagging quadriceps injury, safety Malik Hooker out of action (knee), and LB Darius Leonard in concussion protocol.

SCHEDULE SPOT: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT DETROIT LIONS (+6.5, 54)

The Chiefs find themselves back in the visitors locker room for the third time in the first four weeks of the season when they take on the "undefeated" Lions in Detroit this Sunday. Kansas City opened 2019 with back-to-back road games in Jacksonville and Oakland before a grueling home opener against Baltimore in Week 3.

Not only does a road heavy schedule weigh on players and staff, but this is the Chiefs. The AFC’s No. 1 seed from a season ago was able to catch plenty of teams off guard at the start of 2018 campaign (which led to a perfect 7-0 ATS mark through the first seven games), but now have a huge target on its back as teams get up to play the conference’s elite.

Kansas City’s offense also limps into Week 4 with WR Tyreek Hill out (collarbone), LT Eric Fisher sidelined (hernia), and running backs LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams listed as day-to-day with their respective ailments. The rigors of the road could compound those issues come Sunday, especially with K.C. giving a near touchdown as the visitor.

**Udog** · 09-25-2019, 09:18 PM

TNF - Eagles at Packers
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Eagles (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) are one of three teams in the NFL that has not covered a game yet this season, along with the Chargers and Dolphins (who meet this week). All three games for Philadelphia this season have been decided by five points or less, including last Sunday’s 27-24 home setback to Detroit. The Eagles failed to cash as four-point favorites to drop to 1-7 ATS in Carson Wentz’s last eight starts since Week 10 of 2018.

Philadelphia played without its top two wide receivers with DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery sidelined, while Wentz threw for 259 yards and two touchdowns. Both scoring strikes went to Nelson Agholor, who led Philadelphia with eight receptions, but the Eagles dropped to 0-2 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field this season. The Eagles allowed a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by the Lions, but Philadelphia blocked a field goal late and had an opportunity to tie the game, but turned the ball over on downs.

The Packers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) are one of three NFC teams to own 3-0 records through three weeks, as Green Bay will face another one of those unbeaten squads in Week 5 with a trip to Dallas. Green Bay avoided a letdown spot after beating division rivals Chicago and Minnesota the first two weeks by pulling away from Denver last Sunday, 27-16 to cash as seven-point home favorites.

Green Bay’s defense has stepped up through the first three weeks by allowing a total of 35 points, which is the second-fewest given up in the league behind New England’s 17 points. Aaron Rodgers is not putting up normal Aaron Rodgers numbers through three weeks as the Packers’ All-Pro quarterback has not broken the 300-yard passing mark in any of the three games. Rodgers connected with Marquez Valdez-Scantling on a 40-yard touchdown early, but the Green Bay signal-caller finished with 235 yards, while the Packers rushed for only 77 yards on 23 carries.

SACRIFICIAL LAMBEAU

Green Bay continues to own a solid home-field advantage at Lambeau Field by posting a 7-2-1 record since the start of 2018. Taking it a step further, in the last 16 games in Green Bay (including the playoffs) that Rodgers has started and finished, the Packers are 14-1-1 SU and 12-4 ATS, with the only loss coming to Arizona last season as a 13 ½-point favorite. The caveat of starting and finishing the game applies since Rodgers played the opening three series in the Week 17 finale against Detroit last season in a meaningless 31-0 defeat.

SILENT DOGS

The Eagles sit in the underdog role for the first time this season, as Philadelphia posted a 3-2 ATS mark when receiving points last season. However, all three of those covers came with Nick Foles at quarterback, which included a victory as a 13 ½-point underdog against the Rams and the narrow playoff victory at Chicago. In fact, the Eagles went 0-2 ATS as a ‘dog with Wentz under center as Philadelphia was blown at New Orleans and was squeezed in an overtime setback at Dallas. However, the last underdog cover produced by Wentz did come in a Thursday night road game in a 28-23 triumph at Carolina in 2017.

SERIES HISTORY

The Eagles won five consecutive matchups with the Packers from 2003 through 2006, which included a divisional playoff victory in the 2003 postseason. However, Green Bay has turned the tables since then by winning five of six matchups from 2007 through 2016, although only three of the last 10 meetings have come at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay topped Philadelphia in a Monday night matchup at Lincoln Financial Field in the previous showdown in 2016 as the Pack pulled away for a 27-13 victory as four-point underdogs. The Packers entered that night on a four-game skid, but that win at Philadelphia sprung Green Bay on a six-game winning streak and a trip to the NFC championship before falling at Atlanta. Rodgers outdueled Wentz that night as Green Bay held the ball for over 35 minutes and the Green Bay quarterback threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns. Green Bay owns a 4-0 record against Philadelphia with Rodgers starting, while Wentz makes his first ever start at Lambeau Field.

FIRST HALF/SECOND HALF NUMBERS

The Packers have started well in all three games by outscoring their opponents, 45-23, while covering in all three first halves. The ‘under’ has cashed in the second half in all three of Green Bay’s games, as the Packers have scored only one touchdown after halftime this season.

The Eagles have not covered in the first half this season in three games, while going 2-1 ATS in the second half with both covers coming at home against the Redskins and Lions.

HOORAY FOR THURSDAY

Philadelphia has won the last four Thursday night contests since 2016, including three with Wentz as the starting quarterback. The Packers own a 4-2 mark on Thursday night since 2015, as Green Bay is 2-1 in this stretch at Lambeau Field. The underdog/’under’ combination has hit in all three Thursday games this season, while the winning team has not scored more than 20 points in any of those contests.

TOTAL TALK

Including the 24-20 loss at Atlanta in Week 2, the Eagles have now seen the ‘under’ produce a 4-0-1 record in their last five road games dating back to last season. Chris David is aware of that current streak but he believes the total run could be short-lived for Philadelphia based on previous tendencies.

David explains, “The book on Philadelphia has been a quick read under head coach Doug Pederson since he took over in 2016. You get great defensive efforts at the Linc, but the unit hasn’t travelled well. The current trend is leaning ‘under’ but two of those games were in the playoffs and the other matchup was a meaningless Week 17 matchup. In the other two contests, the Birds allowed 24 and 23 points.”

“Including those five games, Pederson has coached in 26 road games with Philadelphia. My attention is on the 21 other results and you’ve got data that’s hard to ignore. The Eagles went 8-13 in those games while allowing 25.6 PPG and that translated into an eye-opening 15-5-1 ‘over’ (75%) record. Coincidentally, the team total for Green Bay is hovering between 25 and 26 points. Knowing the Eagles are banged-up on defense and they haven’t looked sharp on that side of the ball, I’m expecting Green Bay to get on the board on the short week.”

“As far as the game total, I’d likely lean ‘over’ 46. Green Bay’s defense has looked great so far and it leads the league in takeaways (8) but I believe the overall numbers have been helped by the opponents they faced, in particular the offensive units. Wentz hasn’t been sharp for the Eagles and not having a healthy wide receiver corps has hurt, but he’s clearly better than the first trio that the Packers have faced in Trubisky, Cousins and Flacco.”

Historically, this series has been one-sided to the ‘under’ with the low side cashing in eight of the last 10 meetings.

For those looking for Thursday Night trends, the Eagles have watched the ‘over’ cash in their last three mid-week games dating back to 2016. Green Bay has watched it’s last two Thursday games go ‘over’ and the Packers put up 27 and 35 points, winning both decisions.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson provides his view on the Packers’ hot start, “Ranking 28th in yards per play offense (behind teams like Pittsburgh and Tennessee) the Packers don’t have a typical 3-0 profile even with a future Hall of Fame quarterback. The defense has good overall numbers but has allowed 4.9 yards per rush and in facing Chicago, Minnesota, and Denver, the Packers are yet to take on an elite offensive team or opposing quarterback.”

“The case can be made that the Packers are a phony contender with three narrow wins in which they have been out-gained by their opposition overall but have benefitted from posting the best turnover differential in the NFL at +6. Others will say that the team is only going to improve with more time under Matt LaFleur given some significant roster and system changes in the off-season and that this is a budding Super Bowl threat that is 3-0 without coming close to its potential yet,” Nelson notes.

Focusing on Philadelphia, Nelson makes some interesting points regarding the Eagles, “The scoring differential for the Eagles is just -2 through a 1-2 start and in contrast to the Packers, the Eagles have had one of the best run defenses in the NFL, allowing just 2.9 yards per rush, 2nd best in the league through three weeks. Philadelphia’s offense has disappointed so far through a schedule that isn’t likely to have featured elite defensive teams, 24th in the NFL posting 5.2 yards per play. That figure is 0.4 yards per play better than Green Bay but the Packers have faced teams with strong defensive reputations.”

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions – Carson Wentz (PHI)
Over 23 ½ (-110)
Under 23 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Carson Wentz (PHI)
Over 1 ½ (-120)
Under 1 ½ (Even)

Total Receiving Yards – Nelson Agholor (PHI)
Over 46 ½ (-110)
Under 46 ½ (-110)

Total Gross Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Over 264 ½ (-110)
Under 264 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Over 1 ½ (-150)
Under 1 ½ (+130)

Total Receiving Yards – Davante Adams (GB)
Over 81 ½ (-110)
Under 81 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

The Packers opened as two-point favorites when CG Technologies released their weekly odds back in June. Green Bay is currently a four-point favorite with the total sitting at 46. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-50’s at kickoff and there is no threat of rain at Lambeau Field.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thur., Sep. 26 - Mon., Sep. 30)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thur., Sep. 26 - Mon., Sep. 30)

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