NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Thur., Sep. 19 - Mon., Sep. 23)

[Udog]

Dunkel index is posted in reply #8 and Armadillo's write-up is posted in reply #9.

[Udog]

NFL Betting Trends through Week 2:

Road Teams: 21-10-1 ATS
Home Teams: 10-21-1 ATS

Favorites: 13-18-1 ATS
Underdogs: 18-13-1 ATS

Home Faves: 5-13-1 ATS
Home Dogs: 5-8 ATS

Road Faves: 8-5 ATS
Road Dogs: 13-5-1 ATS

Over/Under: 12-20

[Udog]

TNF - Titans at Jaguars
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

One week after the Titans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) blew out the Browns to open the season, Tennessee dropped its first game of 2019 in a 19-17 setback to Indianapolis. The Titans were flipped from a 5 ½-point road underdog at Cleveland to a three-point home favorite against the Colts. Tennessee failed to start 2-0 for the 11th straight season, while losing in Week 2 for the first time since 2015.

The Titans have allowed only 32 points in two games, which ranks sixth in the NFL, while yielding 288 yards to the Colts. However, Tennessee trailed at halftime, 13-7 before scoring 10 consecutive points to take a 17-13 advantage heading into the fourth quarter. Jacoby Brissett hit T.Y. Hilton on a four-yard touchdown strike to put the Colts ahead with under five minutes remaining to improve to 14-2 in the last 16 matchups with the Titans.

Marcus Mariota threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns in the season-opening blowout of the Browns, but racked up only 154 yards against Indianapolis. Derrick Henry eclipsed the 80-yard mark for the second consecutive week and reached the end zone for the second time in 2019, but not one Tennessee receiver compiled more than 39 yards receiving.

The Jaguars (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) faced their second opponent last week that is coming off a division title in 2018, but had an excellent opportunity to win. After trailing 13-3 in the fourth quarter at Houston, Jacksonville kicked a field goal then got within one point on rookie Gardner Minshew’s touchdown pass to D.J. Chark, Jr. in the final minute. The Jaguars elected to go for the two-point conversion and the win, but running back Leonard Fournette was stuffed at the goal-line and Jacksonville lost, 13-12.

Jacksonville managed the cover as 7 ½-point underdogs, but the offense didn’t bust the 300-yard mark, while Minshew threw for 213 yards in his first professional start in place of the injured Nick Foles. Minshew actually rushed for more yards (56) than Fournette (47) on less attempts, while the Jaguars’ defense allowed one touchdown after yielding 40 points to Kansas City in Week 1.

The big drama surrounding the Jaguars has been the recent trade demand of Pro-Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The former Florida State standout wants out of Jacksonville in his fourth season with the Jaguars following a recent dustup with head coach Doug Marrone during the Houston loss. Jacksonville is off to an 0-2 start for the fifth time in eight seasons, but no team in the AFC South owns a 2-0 record.

AFC SOUTH BREAKDOWN

Only two weeks into the season and three of the four teams in the division have posted 1-1 records. The Colts, Titans, and Texans are 1-1, while the Jaguars are 0-2. However, Jacksonville is the only team in this group to play two playoff teams from last season in its first two games. The schedule eases up the next six weeks as the Jaguars will face Denver and Carolina on the road (both winless through two weeks), host New Orleans without Drew Brees, travel to Cincinnati, and welcome in the Jets in Week 8 before three straight divisional matchups.

Tennessee plays seven straight non-division opponents after Thursday as the Titans head to Atlanta in Week 4 before hosting Buffalo in Week 5. The Titans face a pair of AFC West foes in Week 6 (Denver) and Week 7 (L.A. Chargers) before taking on the Buccaneers at home in Week 8 and at Carolina in Week 9.

HOME/ROAD SPLITS

The Titans were favored on the road three times in 2018, as Tennessee put together a 1-2 SU/ATS record in those games. Tennessee lost at Miami and Buffalo, but the Titans cruised past the Giants in Week 15 with a 17-0 shutout of 2 ½-point favorites.

Since upsetting New England in Week 2 last season, the Jaguars own a 2-6 record in their last eight home contests (which includes a 24-18 defeat in London to the Eagles), while Jacksonville is 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10 opportunities in the underdog role.

SERIES HISTORY

Tennessee swept Jacksonville last season to extend its winning streak in the series to four games since 2017. The Titans limited the Jaguars to a total of 15 points in the two victories, starting with a 9-6 triumph as 10-point underdogs at TIAA Bank Field in Week 3. Neither team reached the end zone as Ryan Succop knocked down three field goals in the victory for Tennessee, while Mariota and Henry combined for 108 yards rushing.

The Titans cruised to a 30-9 blowout of the Jaguars at Nissan Stadium in December to easily cash as 5 ½-point favorites. Henry had his breakout game as a pro as the Heisman Trophy winner rushed for 238 yards and four touchdowns, which included a 99-yard scamper in the second quarter. Jacksonville last beat Tennessee, 38-17 in Week 16 of the 2016 season as four-point home underdogs.

TOTAL TALK

Chris David, a weekly guest on the Bet and Collect Podcast, offered up his total notes for this particular matchup and he touches on the early trend that we’ve seen in primetime spots this season.

He explained, “Bettors playing the ‘under’ blindly in the night games have watched their bankroll grow with the low side going 6-1 through seven games. And the lone ‘over’ ticket in the Saints-Texans matchup was helped with 41 points in the second-half and 13 of those came in the final minute.”

For savvy bettors keeping track of halftime wagers, the ‘under’ has gone 7-0 in the night games. In the second-half of those same contests, we’ve seen more points but the ‘under’ still holds a 4-3 mark.

Even though this total is sitting in the high thirties, David noted that this series has leaned to the ‘over’ recently and an offensive outburst is possible.

“The high side has cashed in five of the last seven meetings in this series, which includes a split last season,” David noted. “Digging deeper, I looked at Mariota’s numbers versus the Jaguars in his career and he owns a 6-2 record in games that he’s started or played in. What’s eye-opening about those eight games is that every season, Mariota and the Titans have been hit or miss offensively. The team posted 30 and 9 in 2018 versus the Jaguars, 37 and 15 in 2017 before scoring 36 and 17 in 2016."

"Going back to his rookie year, the Titans scores 13 and 42. What offense shows up this week is obviously uncertain but this angle should be kept in your betting memory bank when the pair meet later in the season.”

Jacksonville will meet Tennessee in Week 12 at Nissan Stadium from Nashville.

Another notable trend to watch for Thursday is that Tennessee has watched the ‘over’ cash in seven straight night games going back to the 2016 season while Jacksonville is on a 3-0 ‘over’ run in primetime spots during the same span.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in this week on this matchup as he looks how Jacksonville can exploit Tennessee’s defense, “As expected, Tennessee has good defensive numbers allowing 5.0 yards per play (9th in the NFL), but surprisingly the Titans have struggled against the run by giving up 5.0 yards per rush to offset very strong pass defense numbers. Jacksonville’s defense has been vulnerable against the pass through two weeks, allowing 8.2 yards per attempt (25th in the NFL) while performing better against the run. Having to play Kansas City in Week 1 certainly weighs on the numbers for the Jaguars who could still project as one of the better defensive teams in the AFC.”

From Jacksonville’s standpoint with Minshew making his second start, Nelson points out his numbers haven’t been bad, but the Jags need to score more, “Minshew has been more than adequate with nearly 78 percent completions and 8.4 yards per attempt and just one interception while also offering some mobility but ultimately the Jaguars have only scored 38 points in two games. Last season, six of the team’s 11 losses came by six or fewer points and the Jaguars had two SU wins vs. playoff teams at home.”

FIRST HALF/SECOND HALF BETS

After the Chiefs covered both the first and second halves in the season opener, the Jaguars rebounded by covering each half in the Texans’ loss. The Titans have covered in three of four halves this season with first and second half wins at Cleveland, while cashing in the second half against Indianapolis last Sunday.

Tennessee has hit the ‘under’ in three of four halves, with the lone ‘over’ cashing in the second half of the Cleveland game. Jacksonville saw the ‘over’ cash in each half of the Kansas City loss, but the ‘under’ connected in both halves of the Houston defeat.

LINE MOVEMENT

When CG Technologies released their weekly odds in June for every game in the NFL season (for the exception of Week 17), the Jaguars were listed as a three-point favorite against the Titans. Fast-forward to now and Tennessee is listed as a 1 ½-point favorite at CG Technologies. The total has dipped to 39, as the ‘under’ has cashed in six of seven primetime games this season.

[Udog]

Armadillo: More NFL trends for Week 3:

— Bengals covered eight of last ten as a road underdog.

— Seattle is 8-3-2 ATS in last 13 non-division games.

— New England covered 13 of last 19 games vs AFC East foes.

— Colts covered one of their last six road openers.

— Miami covered twice in last eight games vs NFC teams.

— Atlanta covered three of last 13 non-divisional games.

[Udog]

By: Josh Inglis


I WAS BORN A SCRAMBLING MAN

Daniel Jones will take control of the Giants offense this Sunday in Tampa Bay. Mr. Jones will have the services of receiver Sterling Shepard after the wideout cleared concussion protocol this week. It couldn’t have come at a better time as the Buccaneers actually have the league's best DVOA rushing defense — allowing 2.7 yards per carry to opposing backs.

There is no doubt that Jones will be asked to throw a lot, especially if the G-men fall behind. If you think this is the part where we tell you to play the Over on his passing yards, you are mistaken.

We are expecting the rookie to have trouble going through his progressions and tuck and run. At Duke, Jones rushed the ball over 400 times in 36 games and accumulated more than 1300 yards, so we know the first-rounder is familiar with scrambling. It may be a hard market to find, but we are going to seek and destroy the Over on any total below 16-20 rushing yards.


FREEMAN DAYS

The Indianapolis Colts may be without their defensive captain and All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard. The 2018 league leader in tackles is still in concussion protocol and is in danger of missing Sunday’s game versus the Atlanta Falcons.

This is great news for Falcons back Devonta Freeman. Freeman hasn’t done much on the ground, averaging just 41 yards on 19 totes but has seen at least four targets in each game resulting in six catches for 54 yards. Freeman saw his snap count rise to over 60 percent last week and he will benefit the most by not having the game’s best linebacker on him in coverage.

Take the Over 2.5 receptions for Freeman and if the line rises closer to kickoff and you miss the 2.5, feel safe grabbing the 3.5 as well.


THE END OF A LEGEND

Adam Vinatieri deserves a lot of respect for what he has accomplished in his 24-year NFL career. Perhaps that’s why the Indianapolis Colts kicker still has a job heading into Week 3 after beginning his 2019 season 1-for-3 while missing three-of-five extra points. The writing is on the wall as Indy held kicking tryouts for six different kickers earlier this week.

We don’t see a fairy-tale ending for Vinatieri and are going to fade him in a game that he probably knows could be his last NFL match. If the Colts don’t have faith in going for three, look for them to have a higher probability of going for it on 4th-down instead. Take the Colts Under 1.5 total field goals (+100).


ALLEN’S PASSING: TAKE THREE

Here is your weekly reminder that Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is more than just a set of legs. Allen has eclipsed his passing totals in both games this year as his Week 1 and 2 totals were both set around 210 yards. This week will be tougher sledding with the O/U on Allen’s passing total set at 230.5 yards. Good thing for Allen and the Bills, the Cincinnati Bengals are coming to town for the home opener as the Bills look to go 3-0.

The Bengals are averaging more passing yards per game than the Dallas Cowboys, meaning that Cincy won’t roll over and die, keeping Allen in passing mode. Things aren’t as pretty on the other side of the ball for the Bengals as they are third-worst in total defensive DVOA. We are looking to make it 3-0 on the Over on Allen's passing yard and taking the Over 230.5 as the Bills QB has surpassed 250 yards in both games this year.


BRIDGE IS OUT

We are throwing a first-time prop bet for anyone looking to cheer three-and-outs — there are dozens of us!

Teddy Bridgewater will have nearly a full week to prepare for his first start in a meaningful game since January 2016. The New Orleans Saints new No. 1 QB did not look impressive last Sunday versus the Rams and it wouldn’t surprise us if No. 3 Taysom Hill sees a handful of plays under center.

Game Planning against Teddy & Co. are the Seattle Seahawks who will welcome the Saints to the loudest stadium in the league. The Seahawks have a sneaky good defense as they sit in the top-half in total defense DVOA — 13th in the pass and 9th in the run. The Saints also don’t match up well against the run-heavy Hawks as NO has the worst-ranked DVOA run defense and will be without starting linebacker Alex Anzalone.

With wind and rain in the forecast, we expect Bridgwater to struggle to move the offense in a tough environment. Take the Saints as the team with most punts (-125)

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 3
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Ravens at Chiefs (-5 ½, 52) – 1:00 PM EST

Four AFC teams enter Week 3 with 2-0 records as two of those squads hook up at Arrowhead Stadium. Baltimore (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) has jumped out quickly in spite of beating Miami and Arizona, but quarterback Lamar Jackson has exploded for 596 passing yards and seven touchdowns in the two wins. After routing the Dolphins in the opener, the Ravens failed to cover as 13-point favorites in last Sunday’s 23-17 victory over the Cardinals. Baltimore covered in all three opportunities as a road underdog with Jackson starting in 2018, including outright victories over the Chargers and Falcons.

Kansas City (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) scored all 28 of its points in the second quarter of last Sunday’s 28-10 triumph at Oakland to cash as seven-point favorites. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t dropped off since his MVP performance of 2018 by throwing for 443 yards and four touchdowns against the Raiders. The Chiefs didn’t put up a point in the second half at Oakland, but Kansas City improved to 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 road games.

These teams played one of the top games in 2018 as the Chiefs held off the Ravens in overtime, 27-24 in Week 14. The third game in which Jackson and Baltimore covered in the road ‘dog role came at Arrowhead Stadium as 6 ½-point ‘dogs, while the Ravens rushed for nearly 200 yards. Mahomes posted 377 yards through the air, including the game-tying touchdown pass in the final minute. Kansas City closed last season by compiling a 1-5 ATS record as a home favorite, including the AFC title game loss to New England.

Best Bet: Chiefs 31, Ravens 20

Saints at Seahawks (-4 ½, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Several teams are down their starting quarterback in Week 3, including New Orleans (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS), who begins the next six-week stretch without Drew Brees. The future Hall-of-Famer sustained a thumb injury in a 27-9 setback to the Rams in an NFC championship rematch as two-point underdogs. Veteran backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater threw for 165 yards in relief, but the Saints dropped to 0-7 ATS the last seven games (including playoffs) dating back to Week 15 of 2018.

The Seahawks (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) held off the Steelers as four-point road underdogs in Week 2 to pick up a rare September road win, 24-20. Seattle had failed to win its previous five road season openers, while posting an 0-5 ATS mark in the past five Week 2 contests. However, Russell Wilson led the Seahawks on four touchdown drives, including three touchdown passes. Seattle’s rushing offense was silenced in Week 1 against Cincinnati, but the Seahawks ran all over the Steelers’ defense for 151 yards.

Seattle has won 15 consecutive September home games dating back to 2010, while Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll have never lost an opening month contest at CenturyLink Field. The Saints are trying to avoid consecutive losses for the first time since dropping the first two games of the 2017 season. New Orleans has lost in its past three visits to the Pacific Northwest, but the Saints won the previous matchup in 2016 at the Superdome, 25-20.

Best Bet: Seahawks 21, Saints 16

Texans at Chargers (-3, 48 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Both Houston and Los Angeles reached the postseason in 2018, as the two squads look to take that next step towards the Super Bowl in 2019. The Texans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) rebounded from a last-minute heartbreaking loss to the Saints in Week 1 to edge the division rival Jaguars, 13-12 last Sunday. Houston failed to cash as 7 ½-point favorites even though the defense held Jacksonville out of the end zone for 59 minutes. The Jaguars crept to within one point with a touchdown in the final minute, but Houston stuffed Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette at the one-yard line on a two-point conversion to preserve the win.

The Chargers (1-1 SU, 0-1-1 ATS) staved off the Colts in overtime in the season opener, but couldn’t score points at crucial times in last Sunday’s 13-10 setback at Detroit. Los Angeles lost a fumble at the goal-line and missed a pair of field goals, while quarterback Philip Rivers was intercepted on the final drive as the Chargers equaled their road loss total from 2018 in the defeat to the Lions. The Lightning Bolts have started strong this season, but have scored a total of seven points in the third and fourth quarters in two games.

Los Angeles has put together a pedestrian 2-5-1 ATS mark in its last eight home contests, while only two of those victories came by seven points or more. Houston has drilled the OVER in four consecutive road games since last season, as the Texans have scored 28 points or more in the past three contests away from NRG Stadium. The Chargers are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in six meetings with the Texans since Houston entered the league in 2002, including a 21-13 victory in 2016 in the Lone Star State.

Best Bet: Texans 27, Chargers 24

BEST TOTAL PLAY (1-0 last week, 1-1 this season)

Over 43 ½ - Bengals at Bills
Cincinnati was blown out last week at home by San Francisco, 41-17, as the Bengals look for a better performance. The Bills play their home opener following consecutive road wins over the Jets and Giants, as both offenses have been terrible this season. The Bengals have thrown the ball plenty in two weeks, as their running game has been horrific. Buffalo has hit the OVER in four of its last five home games, while Cincinnati is 5-2 to the OVER in its last seven road contests started by Andy Dalton.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Packers are in a tough scheduling spot this week following close wins over division foes Chicago and Minnesota. Green Bay welcomes in 0-2 Denver, who is off a tough last-second loss to the Bears last week. The Packers turn around Thursday to face off with Philadelphia at home in an NFC showdown as this non-conference affair Green Bay may not be as sharp for. Green Bay is listed as seven-point favorites, as the Packers compiled a 2-4 ATS mark in the role of home favorites of six points or more in 2018.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

Carolina opened up as 2 ½-point road favorites at Arizona, but after the news came down on Friday that quarterback Cam Newton would sit out with a foot injury, the Cardinals flipped to a two-point favorite. The Panthers turn to Kyle Allen, who is making his second career start for Carolina, who owns an 8-4 ATS mark as a road underdog since 2016. The Cardinals failed to win in two opportunities as a favorite last season, while Arizona has allowed over 450 yards in each of its first two games.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Steelers turn to Mason Rudolph as their starting quarterback for likely the rest of 2018 after Ben Roethlisberger suffered a season-ending elbow injury in last week’s loss to Seattle. Pittsburgh has not won a road game without Big Ben as its starting quarterback since a 2015 Monday night victory over the Chargers on a last-second touchdown by Le’Veon Bell. Pittsburgh’s signal-caller that evening in San Diego was none other than Michael Vick.

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 3
Joe Williams

We're on our way to Week 3 of the National Football League season already. Time flies during football season, as the regular season is already 11.7 percent completed already.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 2 3-13 4-11-1 7-9

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 10-22 10-21-1 18-14

The under was an impressive 13-3 in Week 2, while hitting in 20 of 32 games (63.0 percent). Bettors banging first-half unders have also prospered this season to a 21-10-1 record while individuals chasing the high side in the second-half have managed to trim off some of their losses.

If we get a repeat of Week 3 in 2018, we'll get a lot more lower-scoring results as the under went 12-2-2 last season in Week 3.

Division Bell

The divisional battles saw the 'under' cash in six of seven battles, with only the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Redskins (46 ½) going over the mark. Through two weeks divisional games have seen the 'under' connect in nine of 12 outings, and games involving the Cowboys and Redskins have each hit the 'over' in both weekends.

Divisional Game Results Week 2

Tampa Bay at Carolina Under (48) Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 14
Indianapolis at Tennessee Under (43.5) Indianapolis 19, Tennessee 17
New England at Miami Under (48.5) New England 43, Miami 0
Dallas at Washington Over (46.5) Dallas 31, Washington 21
Minnesota at Green Bay Under (43) Green Bay 21, Minnesota 16
Jacksonville at Houston Under (43) Houston 13, Jacksonville 12
Kansas City at Oakland Under (53) Kansas City 28, Oakland 10

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 3 as of Saturday morning.

New York Jets at New England Patriots: 48 to 43
New Orleans at Seattle: 50 to 45
Detroit at Philadelphia: 49 ½ to 45 ½
Cincinnati at Buffalo: 40 ½ to 44
L.A. Rams at Cleveland: 51 to 47 ½
Pittsburgh at San Francisco: 46 ½ to 44

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 3 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.

Carolina at Arizona: Over 85%
New Orleans at Seattle: Under 85%
Baltimore at Kansas City: Over 83%
Cincinnati at Buffalo: Over 80%
L.A. Rams at Cleveland: Under 77%
Atlanta at Indianapolis: Over 76%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (76 percent) in the N.Y. Giants-Tampa Bay matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Chicago-Washington (68 percent) battle on Monday night.

Handicapping Week 3

Week 2 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 1-6
NFC vs. NFC 0-2
AFC vs. AFC 0-1
AFC vs. NFC 2-4

Week 3 is already off to a slow start, as the Tennessee-Jacksonville matchup on Thursday night was low scoring, as the 'under' is now 7-1 through eight primetime battles.

Taking a look at the only remaining divisional battle for Week 3, here are some important trends to note:

N.Y. Jets at New England: The Jets lost their starting quarterback Sam Darnold for Week 2, as he is dealing with a bout of mononucleosis. He is targeting Week 5 for a return. Backup QB Trevor Siemian was supposed to keep the seat warm until Darnold was ready, but QB Luke Falk was thrust into action when Siemian suffered torn ligaments and a season-ending ankle injury on Monday night. Now, it's Falk with newly signed QB David Fales as the backup. Wow.

Of course, the big news for the Patriots was the release of wide receiver Antonio Brown on Friday. As such, the total has been on the move in this game, going from an open of 48 to 43 ½ as of Saturday morning. The 'under' is 6-2 in the past eight games inside the AFC East for the Jets, while going 4-1 in the past five on the road against teams with a winning record. For the Patriots, the under is 7-1 in the past eight inside the division, including last week's lambasting of the Dolphins in Miami, 43-0. The under is also 11-3 in the past 14 overall for the Pats. In this series, the under has cashed in six in a row, too, with the Jets averaging just 9.8 PPG. They're starting their third-string QB, and third signal caller in three games, so don't expect much better production.

Other important AFC-NFC games with important trends to note:

Atlanta at Indianapolis: The Falcons are back on the road where they mustered just 12 points in Week 1 at Minnesota, and none of those points came until the fourth quarter. Atlanta has hit the under in nine of the past 13 games on the road, while going 7-3 in the past 10 games overall. However, the over is 6-0 in their past six battles in Week 3. For the Colts, they have hit the under in eight of the past 11 games overall, while hitting in 15 of the past 21 at Lucas Oil Stadium. The under is also Colts will be playing their 2019 home debut after splitting the over/under in their first two games on the road.

Pittsburgh at San Francisco: The Steelers turn to backup QB Mason Rudolph after losing QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow surgery) for the season. The Steelers rank 28th in total offense with 284.5 yards per game, while ranking just 29th in rushing yards per contest (56.5). They're 29th in total defense, yielding 445.0 yards per game, 320.0 passing yards (29th) per game and 125.0 rushing yards (23rd) per game, while coughing up 30.5 points per game (28th).

The 49ers have been the opposite, rolling up 413.5 total yards per game to rank seventh, and they're fourth in rushing yards per game (178.5), while scoring 36.0 PPG to rank third in the NFL. This will be their home opener after winning and cover two games on the road. Their defense allowed just 73.0 rushing yards per game to rank eighth, and 17.0 PPG to check in seventh in the league.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with spreads of a touchdown or greater for Week 3, with two games listed with a spread of 21 or more. The totals are ranging from 43 to 47 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

Denver at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. ET): The Broncos have hit the 'under' in eight of their past 10 on the road against NFC teams. While the Packers defense has looked good through the first two games, one of the games was against the struggling Bears offense, and the other was a home battle against the one-dimensional Vikings. Of course, the Broncos haven't exactly been a juggernaut to this point, so the good times should continue to roll for the Pack. As far as Denver's defense is concerned, they have an alarming ZERO sacks through the first two games.

The under is 6-0 in the past six games for the Broncos following a straight-up loss, and 5-0-1 in the past six following a cover in the following week. The under is also an impressive 19-6-1 in the past 26 for Denver. For the Pack, the under is 4-1 in the past five overall, and 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up victory.

N.Y. Jets at New England (1:00 p.m. ET): In two games last season in this series, the Patriots won 38-3 in Week 7 in Foxboro to hit the 'under', and 27-13 at Met Life Stadium in Week 12, also an 'under'. For more information on this game, see above.

Miami at Dallas (1:00 p.m. ET): The 'under' has connected in each of Miami's past two games as a double-digit underdog. For the first time in NFL history, at least in a non-strike season, there are two teams listed as underdogs of 20 or more points in the same week. The Dolphins are also the biggest underdogs in their franchise history.

The Dolphins were blanked at home last week against the Patriots, and the over/under is 1-1 through their first two games. Miami has been outscored a whopping 102-10 so far. They turn to QB Drew Rosen for his first start in aqua and orange, and he will be making his eighth career road start. The Arizona Cardinals averaged 18.1 points per game with Rosen at the helm on the road. Miami has also allowed 35.4 points per game across their past seven road contests, so another over could be the rule.

For Dallas, the over is a perfect 5-0 in the past five games overall, and 7-2 in the past nine contests at home. The over is also 10-2 in the past 12 games at home against teams with a losing road record.

The under is 29-14 in Miami's past 43 games on a field turf surface, while going 5-2 in their past seven on the road against a team with a winning home record. For the Cowboys, the over is 7-3 in the past 10 on a field turf surface, while going 10-2 in the past 12 at home against teams with a losing record and 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up win.

Oakland at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. ET): The Vikings have hit the under in 10 of the past 12 games at home under head coach Mike Zimmer, with just three teams scoring 20 or more points during the span - the Bills, Saints and Bears. The under is 8-1 in their past nine games on a field turf surface, too, while hitting in four straight overall. The under is 5-1 in their past six following a straight-up loss, and 4-1 in the past five after a non-cover.

The Raiders have hit the under in five of their past seven games in the month of September. The under is 18-7-1 in the past 26 games overall, while going 8-2 in their past 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. In addition, the under is 7-3-1 in the past 11 games on the road. One thing which gives under bettors pause, however, is that Oakland has the league's worst pass defense, allowing 352.0 yards per game, with 415.0 total yards per outing (27th in the NFL).

Under the Lights

L.A. Rams at Cleveland (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): In the Sunday Night Football game, the Rams head to FirstEnergy Stadium for the first SNF game in Cleveland since 2008. The under has cashed in four of the past five games on the road for the defending NFC champions, while the over has cashed in seven of their past 10 games in the month of September. For the Browns, the under is 15-6-1 in the past 22 home games, although the over cashed in their home opener in Week 1, a 43-13 setback against the Titans. The under is 4-1 in Cleveland's past five games when playing on a Sunday after a Monday Night contest.

Chicago at Washington (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): In the Monday nighter, the Bears and 'Skins tussle in D.C. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in Chicago's past seven overall, 6-0 in their past six against NFC opponents and 5-1 in their past six appearances on MNF. In addition, the under is 4-1 in their past five against teams with a losing overall record, 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up win and 4-0 in the past four after a non-cover in their previous game. As far as the 'Skins are concerned, the over has cashed in four of their past five games overall. However, the under is 7-3 in the past 10 after a non-cover, while going 6-1 in the past seven after allowing 30 or more points in their previous outing. The under is also 8-1 in the past nine when Washington allowed 150 or more rushing yards in their previous contest.

And remember, going into Sunday's Rams-Browns tilt, the under is 7-1 so far through eight primetime games. For bettors playing more than just the game total, make a note that the first-half under is 8-0 in games played under the lights while the low side is 5-3 in the second-half.

[Udog]

Top six picks for Week 3 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Colts -1.5 (674)
5) Ravens +6.5 (794)
4) Steelers +6.5 (934)
3) Lions +6 (937)
2) Seahawks -4 (974)
1) Rams -3 (1,474)

2019 record: 7-5

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 3
September 21, 2019
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Vikings are 10-0 ATS (10.85 ppg) since Nov 03, 2013 off a game as a dog where they gained no more than 15 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-10 ATS (-15.05 ppg) since Oct 29, 2015 as a road dog when they allowed at least 22 first downs last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Falcons are 0-7-1 OU (-6.25 ppg) since Nov 03, 2013 as a dog coming off a game where Matt Ryan threw at least 2 interceptions.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Teams which have won by at least 25 points in each of the past two games are 26-42-1 ATS. Active against New England.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Lions are 10-0 OU (9.25 ppg) since Dec 24, 2006 and as a dog coming off a game as a dog that went under the total by at least 14 points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Jets are 0-11-1 OU (-4.88 ppg) since Nov 17, 2011 on the road coming off a home game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Falcons are 18-0 ATS (+9.78 ppg) on the road and vs a non-divisional opponent that allowed fewer than 254 total yards in their last game and has less than 14 days rest.

[Udog]

NFL Sunday odds and line moves: Public abandons Browns, hitches wagon to Rams
Patrick Everson

Coach Sean McVay and the Rams are out to a 2-0 SU and ATS start heading into a Sunday night road tilt against Cleveland. Los Angeles opened -3 and were bet up to -3.5 against the Browns.

NFL Week 3 includes a clash between the reigning NFC champion and the most-hyped team from the offseason, under the Sunday night lights. Covers checks in on that matchup and three others, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip.
Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland Browns – Open: +3; Move: +3.5

Cleveland got a lot of offseason run from the media and at the betting window, with its acquisition of Odell Beckham Jr. and more, but hasn’t looked particularly good through two weeks. After getting ripped by Tennessee in Week 1, the Browns (1-1 SU and ATS) beat the Jets 23-3 as 6.5-point road favorites in the Week 2 Monday nighter.

Los Angeles is out of the gate 2-0 SU and ATS in defense of its NFC crown. The Rams knocked New Orleans’ Drew Brees out of the game early with a thumb injury and went on to a 27-9 Week 2 victory as 2-point home faves.

“I’m pretty sure that’s gonna be the biggest need of the day, on Cleveland,” Shelton said of an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff. “The ticket count is almost laughable, over 1,000 pointspread tickets on the Rams, around 100 on the Browns. And the money is even worse, almost 20/1. The public has completely abandoned the Browns.

“We’re already a six-figure loser to the Rams. I can’t even fathom what it’ll be like at 5 p.m. (Pacific). The Rams are probably the last piece of the puzzle for a lot of people with parlays.”

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5

Kansas City reached the AFC Championship Game last season and looks very much the part of a Super Bowl contender thus far this season. The Chiefs (2-0 SU and ATS) dropped Oakland 28-10 laying 7 points on the road last week.

Baltimore also won its first two games, but got a surprisingly tough test in Week 2. The Ravens (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) held off Arizona for a 23-17 victory giving 13 points at home.

“Not a big decision,” Shelton said of a 1 p.m. ET start. “Ticket count is roughly 4/1 on the Chiefs, but there’s actually more money on the Ravens.”

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -21; Move: -21.5; Move: -22; Move: -23

After two weeks of misery in Miami, sportsbooks far and wide posted proposition bets on whether the Dolphins will go 0-16. Miami (0-2 SU and ATS) have been outscored 102-10 thus far, including a 43-0 shutout as an 18-point home ‘dog to New England last week.

On the flip side, Dallas is off to a 2-0 SU and ATS start heading into this 1 p.m. ET nonconference contest. The Cowboys started slowly at Washington last week, but ultimately nabbed a 31-21 victory as 6-point road faves.

“Pretty much all Cowboys, money and tickets,” Shelton said. “We need the Dolphins.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers – Open: -7; Move: -6.5

Pittsburgh is still seeking its first win, and it lost Ben Roethlisberger for the season with an elbow injury in Week 2. In that contest, the Steelers (0-2 SU and ATS) fell short to Seattle 28-26 as 4-point home favorites.

San Francisco is 2-0 SU and ATS after a pair of relatively easy victories. The 49ers went to Cincinnati as 1-point pups last week and rolled to a 41-17 victory.

Mason Rudolph is now at the helm for Pittsburgh, and interestingly enough, bettors at The Mirage and other MGM books are buying the Steelers in this 4:25 p.m. ET matchup.

“Right now, we’re gonna need the Niners,” Shelton said. “Pointspread ticket count is 3/1 on the 49ers, but there’s more money on Pittsburgh.”

[Udog]

By: Josh Inglis


NO SONY OF MINE

Through 36 rushes, New England Patriots running back Sony Michel has forced zero missed tackles. His 2.96 yards per carry has him ranked between Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson. Heading into the 2019 season, Michel’s injury history was well documented as he has a durability rating of 1 on Sports Injury Predictor, with 1 being the least durable. These injuries may be playing a big factor behind the lack of burst and elusiveness.

Michel and the Pats will host the New York Jets on Sunday as 21.5-point favorites. The Jets are in the middle of the pack in yards per carry allowed and rank 11th in DVOA rush defense. With the back’s total rushing yards at 83.5, we feel that too many things have to go right for him to top that number, especially since he is averaging just 1.69 yards after contact. Take Sony’s Under 83.5 rushing yards.


FALK THE PLANK

The fade train continues as we turn our shading onto the worst starting quarterback in the league. This lucky signal-caller is playing on the road versus the best football dynasty in history that is currently sporting the league’s best defense.

New York Jets third-stringer turned starter Luke Falk is in for a world of hurt on Sunday versus New England’s No. 1 defense. Last week Falk “led” the Jets’ offense to three three-and-outs, a fumble and two turnover on downs. This week Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will have had six days to game plan against him. There is a reason that the Pats are 21.5-point favorites. Take the Under 0.5 TD passes from Falk (-103).


COOK THE BOOKS

In Week 1, as the favorite and at home, the Minnesota Vikings ran the ball 38 times and passed just nine times. On Sunday, the Vikes will host the Oakland Raiders as 9-point favorites and may use Week 1’s game plan as quarterback Kirk Cousins is in, or near, the bottom of most QB statistical leader boards. This will benefit running back Dalvin Cook the most as the RB saw 21 carries which he turned into 111 yards and two rushing TDs in Week 1’s win over the Atlanta Falcons.

The Raiders are allowing just 2.8 yards to opposing running backs and have yet to allow a rushing TD, but things will change on Sunday as Minnesota will lean on Cook as Cousin struggles. Take Cook’s Over 0.5 rushing TDs for plus money (+118).


MURRAY-UP OFFENSE

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is +180 to win the offensive rookie of the year after opening at +200. Since the beginning of the year, the No. 1 pick has become only the second player in NFL history to throw for 300 yards in his first two games. Aiding the 22-year-old QB is the fact that the Cardinals have run 91-of-136 offensive plays with four or more receivers. The other 31 NFL teams combined have just 60. The Air-Raid Offense is real.

Murray will square off with the Cam-Newtonless Carolina Panthers whose defense held Jameis Winston to 208 yards last week and Jared Goff to 186 yards in Week 1. Seems like a legit passing defense but Winston and Goff are ranked 27th and 28th, respectively in QBR and the Panthers rank 18th in DVOA passing defense. We are putting our bucks on Murray’s Over 261.5 passing yards.


WAVERING WENTZ WILL WANE

In Week 2, the Philadelphia Eagles lost a ton of players due to injury, including receiver DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey. Jackson will miss Sunday’s matchup versus the Detroit Lions while Jeffrey is questionable but may suit up. Quarterback Carson Wentz has looked awful in the first half of each game this year as the Eagles have been outscored 30-16.

Wentz has gone 21-for-38 (55 percent) and thrown for 189 yards with one score and two INTs in the first half this year. Outside of a 51-yard touchdown in Week 1, Wentz’s longest completion in the first 30 minutes has gone for 12 yards. Wentz is playing with fire starting so slowly and may have some lingering effects from last week’s rib-crushing hit while also having to play with a decimated offense.

We are fading Wentz and the Eagles against a tough Lions passing D that sit No. 5 in completion percentage against and allowing a QB rating of 74.4. Smash the Under Eagles team total 26.5 and if you want to double down, take Under Wentz’s 285.5 passing yards.

[Udog]

Sunday's Week 3 Essentials
Tony Mejia

Broncos at Packers (-7 /42.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Vic Fangio came up on the wrong side of a Bears field goal again last week. The former Chicago defensive coordinator who lost his shot an NFC divisional playoff when Cody Parkey missed is 0-2 as a head coach in Denver due to replacement Eddy Pineiro hitting the biggest field goal of his life. Sometimes it’s not your year. Fangio has seen his defense play well enough to win but the Joe Flacco-led offense has averaged 15 points. Making matters worse is that 21 of their 30 points on the season have come in the fourth quarter when playing from behind. They’ve scored no touchdowns in the first three quarters of their opening two games despite Flacco firing off 81 passes. Flacco has demonstrated some chemistry with veteran Emmanuel Sanders and has looked for the dynamic Courtland Sutton but now faces a Green Bay secondary that has excelled in wins over division rivals Chicago and Minnesota, giving up 9.5 points behind new coordinator Mike Pettine.

Aaron Rodgers is feeling much healthier this season, so this should also be a great test for the Broncos’ defense. Ironically, it was Khalil Mack, at the helm of Fangio’s Bears defense, who hurt Rodgers last September, so he’ll need to be wary of the likes of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. He’s 4-1 against Fangio defenses over the past three seasons, throwing 10 TDs and just one INT despite coming up empty in a 24-17 loss when he last saw him on Dec. 16. Denver’s defense will be missing LB Joe Jones but otherwise should be at full strength to try and keep Rodgers from finding a rhythm. Green Bay is just 7-6-1 straight up at Lambeau Field over its last 14 home games, so it will be looking to re-establish that edge as it plays the second game of a four-game stretch of home games over a five-week span. Rookie head coach Matt LaFleur and his new offense has only averaged 15.5 points but he’s got a great shot at a fantastic start if Rodgers remains upright and his defense continues to dominate. Rain is expected to factor in all day in Green Bay, where thunderstorms could roll in as the game unfolds.

Lions at Eagles (-5/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Eagles were sabotaged by injuries in Atlanta last weekend and were still just a half-yard away from being in position to rally past the Falcons despite the absence of Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Dallas Goedert and star TE Zach Ertz, who got banged up despite staying in on the final drive as he wound up participating in every snap. Carson Wentz played poorly in the first half and couldn’t rescue the result, which dropped Philly to 1-1 for the third straight season. Doug Pederson is 3-0 in Week 3 since taking over in ’16 but has won tight home games that hung in the balance until the game’s final play and resulted in failed covers each of the past two years. Jeffery is unlikely to play due to a calf injury, although he may warm up and try to gut it out if he loosens up enough. Jackson has already been ruled out, but the team is hopeful Goedert can play and will have to ride with Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins and rookie JJ Arcega-Whiteside as the main receivers against an underrated Lions secondary .

Detroit held the visiting Chargers to just 10 points and has been largely dominant on the defensive end with the exception of getting carved up by Kyler Murray in the fourth quarter of their Week 1 tie at Arizona. The Lions allowed 21 points in down the stretch in Glendale and have surrendered 16 points over the other seven quarters. They could get a boost with top LB Jarrad Davis making his debut, so Wentz and Philly may have their hands full moving the ball effectively if Jeffery remains out. Nelson Agholor could get a boost in targets but has remained hit-or-miss due to drops and would have to see more of Darius Slay if he’s the No. 1. Detroit has won three of the past four meetings between these teams, beating former head coach Jim Schwartz in his first season as Eagles coordinator 24-23 behind three Matthew Stafford TD passes.

Ravens at Chiefs (-5.5/52), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Lamar Jackson’s great start passing the ball sets up this beauty of a matchup against Patrick Mahomes in a battle of two of the NFL’s four highest-scoring teams through two games. Kansas City (34.0) actually ranks No. 4 with everyone looking up at Baltimore and its gaudy 41-point average, but there’s no question most have taken a wait-and-see approach with Jackson since he’s torched the hopeless Dolphins and a young Cardinals team missing Patrick Peterson. The Chiefs aren’t the ’85 Bears on the defensive end, but did blank the Raiders over the final three quarters last week and have added pieces like Frank Clark, Darron Lee and Tyrann Mathieu who still haven’t gotten comfortable. If Jackson is able to light up the Chiefs on the road and we get a full blown circus of a shootout at Arrowhead today, it would be hard to deny the Ravens’ quarterback’s emergence. Top RB Mark Ingram (kidney) and productive tight end Mark Andrews (foot), who has emerged as Jackson’s favorite target, have been cleared to play. Corner Jimmy Smith and safety Brynden Trawick are out.

Mahomes should continue to thrive despite the absence of Tyreek Hill given how nicely he’s spread the ball around, but the protection left tackle Eric Fisher provides should be tougher to replace since he’ll be out of the lineup for an extended period due to core surgery. Cam Erving took over for most of last week’s win against Oakland but the veteran interior lineman isn’t as mobile. RB LeSean McCoy is expected to have a heightened role with Damien Williams out, so he could be in for a breakout game after practicing in full coming off an ankle issue. Early thunderstorms are expected in Kansas City, so check the forecast to see whether the weather is clearing up since that could potentially rain out plans for that aforementioned shootout.

Bengals at Bills (-6/43.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Bengals had a rough home opener in losing to San Francisco 41-17 and will be on the road in Buffalo and Pittsburgh the next few weeks, so first-year head coach Zac Taylor is hoping to stop the bleeding. Right tackle Cordy Glenn remains out with a concussion and LT Andre Smith and LG Michael Jordan have both been deemed questionable, with Jordan unlikely to start even if he can go. Cincinnati’s issues up front have impacted Joe Mixon and Andy Dalton as life without A.J. Green continues, so the Bills should have an opportunity to get after an offense again after really clamping down in wins over the Giants and Jets.

Impressive rookie RB Devin Singletary is out with an injured hamstring, but Frank Gore is healthy and running as hard as ever, so he and veteran T.J. Yeldon will be tasked with keeping QB Josh Allen in manageable drives. The raw second-year Bills quarterback managed to avoid being picked off last week and has a TD pass and a TD run in three straight games dating back to last season. The Bengals aren’t going to have DE Carl Lawson to help chase Allen down and a new linebacker corps has really struggled thus far. Buffalo is looking for its first 3-0 start since 2011 and hasn’t been this heavy a favorite since beating the Jets 21-12 to cover as a 7-point ‘chalk’ in 2017. The Bills closed last season by blowing out the Dolphins as a 5.5-point favorite in their last regular-season game at New Era Field.

Falcons at Colts (-1.5/47), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Colts may have WR T.Y. Hilton (quad) and RB Marlon Mack (calf) in the lineup, but both will be game-time decisions and haven’t had much practice time this week. Top linebacker Darius Leonard has already been ruled out due to a concussion, so backups are going to have to emerge at home to keep Indy from losing this home opener as the post-Andrew Luck era officially begins. Jacoby Brissett threw three touchdown passes to help beat the Titans in Nashville last weekend but needs a full complement of weapons to try and hang with Matt Ryan and a healthy Falcons offense.

Surviving Philly’s frantic comeback bid on Sunday night really took some of the pressure off Dan Quinn and Dirk Koetter, and they can suddenly start thinking about getting the team headed in the right direction with the division up for grabs given the injuries to Drew Brees and Cam Newton. DT Ra’Shede Hageman is back, adding to Atlanta’s depth up front as they look to keep the Colts rom establishing the run in the manner they have thus far. Indianapolis has won 14 of 16 meetings against the Falcons but lost the last time they hosted a game in this series, falling 31-7 in 2011. Matt Hasselbeck helped beat Ryan when these teams last met in ‘15.

Raiders at Vikings (-9/43.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Jon Gruden’s young Raiders hit the road for the first time after splitting their first two divisional games against the Broncos and Chiefs and come in a little banged up. LB Vontaze Burfict injured an ankle against Kansas City last week and could be limited. Safety Lamarcus Joyner is nursing an injured groin, so an already thin secondary could struggle against the Vikings weapons, particularly if Burfict isn’t able to make the calls and get everyone working together. Offensively, Oakland does get back suspended guard Ritchie Incognito to try and get rookie Josh Jacobs going again after an illness and multiple lower body injuries.

The Vikings are expected to get CB Mike Hughes back, which should soften the blow of Mackensie Alexander being ruled out with an elbow injury. Linebacker Anthony Barr is likely a go as well, so the Vikings will try and rattle Derek Carr. After a great run on the road in 2016, Carr has thrown 15 interceptions and just 16 touchdowns over the past two seasons and doesn’t have a No. 1 receiver, relying mostly on lanky tight end Darren Waller as a security blanket. The Raiders have won 10 of 14 in the series but haven’t won in Minnesota since ’07 and lost the last meeting at home back in ’15 as Carr was picked off twice and then-Viking Adrian Peterson ran for over 200 yards.

Jets at Patriots (-21.5/43.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The number has swung back in the Jets’ direction after Antonio Brown’s release on Friday. After peaking in the 23/23.5-point range depending on the book, most have settled back at 21 points in this battle between divisional rivals. The Patriots will start Tom Brady and New York will send Luke Falk out there since starter Sam Darnold is out with mono and backup Trevor Siemian broke his ankle on Monday night. Defensive standouts Quinnen Williams, CJ Mosley and Jordan Jenkins have been ruled out and safety Jamal Adams unfollowed the team on social media after being unhappy with being benched for aggressive play. Offensive linemen Kelechi Osemele, Brian Winters and Kelvin Meachum all are banged up and the Jets will hit Foxboro off a short week. Although Adam Gase is plenty familiar with New England, he’ll be putting together a gameplan under less than ideal conditions.

The Patriots have Philip Dorsett ready to step back up in the role he was filling before Brown came aboard and should continue getting strong play out of Josh Gordon. Left tackle Marshall Newhouse and right tackle Marcus Cannon are expected to start, so Brady and the offense should have all the time they need against a Jets defense that has worn down in giving up big plays in the passing game, which doesn’t bode well for the Jets snapping a six-game losing streak against the Pats, who have won 14 of the last 16 matchups.

Dolphins at Cowboys (-22/47), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: With the Jets’ line dipping, the Dolphins again bear the brunt of being the week’s biggest underdog again. New England coasted to a cover of an 18-point spread with a 43-0 win, which means the Dolphins have been outscored 102-10 entering their first road game of the season. In order to inspire showing a little backbone, Brian Flores has named Josh Rosen the starting quarterback ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Safety Reshad Jones is out again, so a defense that traded away major pieces isn’t going to be able to slow a versatile Cowboys offense that has lit up the Giants and Redskins in ranking fifth with a 33-points per game clip.

The Cowboys do have some answers to come up with after losing WR Michael Gallup to a knee injury, but Devin Smith was able to fill in nicely against Washington and is an x-factor here. Dallas will wrap as the largest favorite since 2013 and has only won a game by enough points to cover this spread four times over the past four seasons.

Steelers at 49ers (-6.5/43.5), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: The Niners hope to open 3-0 for the first time since 1998, which makes them one of the NFL’s biggest surprises considering they’re favored to do so rather substantially here due to Ben Roethlisberger’s absence and picked up their first two victories on the road. No one is going to confuse the Bucs and Bengals with playoff-caliber teams, but the 49ers pulled away from both impressively, demonstrating an ability to create breakdowns on both sides of the ball. Last week’s rout of Cincinnati showcased depth since Jimmy Garoppolo rebounded from a rough first start by capitalizing on all the attention George Kittle received.

The Steelers are 0-2 after dropping games against the Patriots and Seahawks and will send Mason Rudolph out there for his first start. He threw for two scores and was intercepted once in a 28-26 loss to Seattle and will have to grow with Juju Smith-Schuster, Donte Moncrief and college teammate James Washington in what will likely turn into a rebuilding year if Rudolph can’t immediately produce a win that prevents an 0-3 start. RB James Conner will be out there to help ease everyone’s burden despite a knee injury that had his status in doubt earlier this week. Defensively, Pittsburgh will be without a pair of linebackers but will have safety Minkah Fitzgerald in the mix.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 3 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-6

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 30-16-1
Against the Spread 20-26-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 23-23-1
Against the Spread 15-31-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 21-26

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Giants (+5.5, ML +210) at Buccaneers, 32-31
Saints (+5, ML +200) at Seahawks, 33-27
Lions (+4, ML +180) at Eagles, 27-24
Texans (+3, ML +145) at Chargers, 27-20

The largest favorite to cover
Cowboys (-22.5) vs. Dolphins, 31-6
Vikings (-9) vs. Raiders, 34-14
Packers (-7) vs. Broncos, 27-16
Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Ravens, 33-28
Rams (-4.5) at Browns, 20-13

Stacking Dimes

-- The New York Giants (+5.5, ML +210) rallied for the 32-31 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in the first-career start for rookie QB Daniel Jones, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. He replaced two-time Super Bowl winner QB Eli Manning, and his selection was viewed as a bit of a reach by some. However, if Sunday's game is any indication, the G-Men appear to have made the right decision in selecting him, as well as making the change in Week 3. He completed 23-of-36 passes for 336 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding four runs, 28 yards and two more touchdowns, including the game-winner late in the fourth quarter.

The Legend of Danny Dimes grows after a tremendous preseason. He went into the huddle at one point of the second quarter and said, "Let's f***ing score!", which was surprising to his teammates, as he reportedly had never been overheard swearing in the past. Elias Sports Bureau reports that since the 1970 merger only Jones and former Detroit Lions QB Eric Hipple are the only players to pass for two TDs and run for two TDs in his first-career start.

Brown Out

-- The Cleveland Browns were much better in their second home game of the season against the Los Angeles Rams than they were in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans, but the results were the same - a loss and a non-cover. The entire secondary for the Browns was inactive, but they nearly tied the game up in the closing seconds. The Browns, who were blown out 43-13 in Week 1 by the Titans, moved inside the 5-yard line of the Rams in the final ticks. However, QB Baker Mayfield scrambled to the right and was picked off on the final play, falling 20-13 in a surprisingly low-scoring game. The public helped the books take a huge bath as a result of the favorite Rams covering the 4.5 points.

Total Recall

-- The over went 9-6 between Thursday's game and Sunday's entire slate, quite a bit different than Week 2 when the under connected in 13 of 16 outings.

The highest total on the board was the Baltimore Ravens-Kansas City Chiefs (52) ended up covering fairly handily with 61 total points. That was the only total in the 50's. The second-highest total was the Houston Texans-Los Angeles Chargers (49) game, which went just under with 47 points. QB Philip Rivers was picked off in the red zone to end the threat of overtime, and the threat of an over ticket. The two games with totals at 48, the aforementioned Giants-Bucs game, and Atlanta Falcons-Indianapolis Colts games each saw 'over' results.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Tennessee Titans-Jacksonville Jaguars (38) game, which easily hits the under with a total of 27 points. It started out looking like it might be high-scoring, as QB Gardner Minshew led the Jags to a 14-0 lead after 15 minutes. However, a scoreless second quarter, and a total of three points in the third put the nail in the coffin for those holding 'over' tickets.

-- The 'under' is 2-0 through the first two primetime games of Week 3, with the low Monday Night Football contest between the Chicago Bears-Washington Redskins (41) still pending. The 'over' is 1-8 (11.1%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- The biggest injury of the weekend occurred in that Giants-Bucs battle, as New York RB Saquon Barkley suffered a high-ankle sprain after getting his foot caught under a tackler in the second quarter. He was on crutches and in a walking boot on the sidelines in the second half. The injury didn't keep him from hobbling over and celebrating with his teammates following the win.

-- Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (quadriceps) entered Sunday's game questionable against the Falcons due to a quad injury, and he aggravated the ailment.

-- Patriots WR Julian Edelman (chest) left with a chest injury suffered against the Jets. He had X-rays which came back negative.

-- Chiefs RB LeSean McCoy (ankle) exited early due to an ankle injury for the team which was already missing starter RB Damien Williams (knee).

Looking Ahead

-- The Browns travel to meet the Ravens in a battle between the top two teams in the AFC North. The Browns have posted a 4-1 ATS mark in their past five road games, although they're 6-16-1 ATS in the past 23 inside the division. They did a good job shutting down the running game of the Rams in Week 2, but facing QB Lamar Jackson is a whole other animal. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, and 0-4 ATS in the past four inside the division. While Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series, the road team is 13-5-1 ATS in the past 19 meetings. The 'under' is also 4-1 in the past five, and 6-2 in the previous eight battles in Charm City.

-- The Patriots have dominated the Bills in the past, but it's a new day in Buffalo. We'll see if it's the same old results. Buffalo has fired out to a 3-0 SU record, and they're 2-1 ATS with the 'under' hitting in each of their first three. New England is 20-8 ATS in the past 28 games on the road, while going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 inside the division. They've really made Western New York their home, going 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 trips to Buffalo. The road team is also 20-7-1 ATS in the past 28 in this series.

-- In another divisional matchup, Jones and the Giants will look to carry over their momentum from Tampa back to MetLife Stadium against the 'Skins. Washington has covered just once in the past six games inside the NFC East, although that one cover happened in Week 1 in Philadelphia. They're 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on the road, too. The G-Men have posted a 5-2-1 ATS mark in the past eight against the NFC, including their outright win against the Bucs. If you're a fan of totals, the 'under' is 13-3 in the past 16 battles in New Jersey, and 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.

-- The Seahawks and Cardinals hook up in the desert on Sunday afternoon. QB Kyler Murray and the Cards are searching for their first win, going 0-2-1 SU. However, they are 2-1 ATS in the first three, including a pair of 'over' results at home. This series has been all about the road team, as the visitors are 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine in this series. Seattle has an impressive 4-1-1 ATS mark in the past six trips to the desert, too. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four meetings in Glendale, too.

-- The Vikings and Bears get together in the Windy City, and Chicago looks to maintain its dominance against the number. The Bears are 13-3 ATS in the past 16 at home against the Vikings, and 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings overall. The under has hit in four of the past five at Soldier Field with 11 unders in the past 15 meetings overall.

-- On Monday Night Football the winless Bengals and winless Steelers square off at Heinz Field. The Bengals have posted a 2-0 ATS mark in their two games so far on the road, and they have covered their past six away games dating back to last season. Cincinnati is also 7-2 ATS in the past nine divisional matchups. Pittsburgh has dominated, going 18-7-1 ATS in the past 26 home games against the Bengals, but it's a new day with QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) already done and QB Mason Rudolph under center.

[Udog]

MNF - Bears at Redskins
Tony Mejia

Bears at Redskins (-5, 41), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

Hopefully the guys in stripes relax with the penalties in Landover since points aren’t likely to be plentiful and Tom Brady may be tuned in with his itchy Twitter trigger-finger loaded and ready.

The rumor around the NFL on Sunday was that officiating crews had been told to relax some on calling every single holding penalty, which has been a point of emphasis early on. A fun day of football unfolded with multiple high-scoring games serving as the top buffet offerings, but Monday’s menu item pits a pair of teams that have started slowly and may mix in some inclement weather to deliver an unwatchable product that you have to stay tuned in for presuming the game is at least close.

Washington (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) hasn’t looked particularly effective since the first half of its Week 1 loss to the Eagles in which it blew a 17-0 lead before avoiding a double-digit loss via touchdown with six seconds left. The defense has given up a pair of 30-point games against Philadelphia and Dallas while Keenum has thrown for 600 yards and five scores without being in position to win a game come fourth quarter.

Chicago (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) counterpart Mitchell Trubisky flopped in the season-opening home loss to Green Bay and made up for a brutal game in Denver by putting the team in position to steal back a 16-14 win they nearly let get away, completing a 25-yard pass to Allen Robinson on 4th-and-15 with a second left to send up a 53-yard field goal from new kicker Eddy Pineiro. That kick has completely changed the narrative regarding the Bears, who have scored a single touchdown in two games. Instead of panic setting in, head coach Matt Nagy is encouraged that Trubisky will improve as his own play-calling does, not to mention thankful that the defense has surrendered just 12 points per game to give Chicago a chance.

Robinson has looked effective as the No. 1 receiver, but the rest of the offense has really struggled and Trubisky has been especially disappointing. Nagy has seen enough of his erratic throws in practice to trust his run game ahead of even short passes, while an offensive line that has dealt with excellent defensive fronts probably won’t catch the break of missing Washington’s top player, defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. Read the injury report portion of this preview below for more on his availability, but the likelihood is that he’ll be out there after missing the majority of snaps thus far following a first-half injury in Philadelphia.

The Bears have yet to allow a point in the third quarter, which is a great sign new coordinator Chuck Pagano has a strong feel for what he inherited personnel-wise from Vic Fangio, who moved on to become head coach in Denver. Between his penchant for exotic blitzes and the trust he puts in his defensive guys to take chances and make plays, the Bears’ alpha group remains the defense, and they’ll need to step up to throw Keenum off his rhythm and take advantage of a young receiving corps led by rookie Terry McLaurin, who has touchdown catches in his first two games as a pro.

Bears fans will get another look at old rival Adrian Peterson, who is back in an RB1 role due to an injury to Derrius Guice but was held to just 25 yards on 10 carries by the Cowboys. Washington needs a vintage performance from Peterson to keep the Bears defense from coming after Keenum, who will again be working behind an offensive line missing long-time anchor Trent Williams. The All-Pro left tackle remains away from the team in a contract dispute, which combined with tight end Jordan Reed’s continued absence due to a concussion, leaves Washington awfully inexperienced on the offensive side of the ball.

Keenum has responded thus far but will be seeing the best defense he’s faced thus far. The worst-case scenario for the ‘Skins would be a double-digit deficit that would allow the Bears to disregard their run defense and come after him. To avoid such a fate, the Greg Manusky-led defensive unit that has the coordinator on the hot seat by coming in 30th in the NFL in yards and points allowed can’t afford to let Trubisky find a flow on the road. The third-year starter taken ahead of league MVP Patrick Mahomes and Houston’s Deshaun Watson went 5-3 on the road last season but threw just five touchdown passes away from Soldier Field and was far less aggressive. We’ll see if Nagy is more willing to take the training wheels off despite his inconsistency thus far in 2019.

Thunderstorms are in the forecast and could potentially be in the mix by halftime, which could turn this into a punt-fest if both coordinators stall out conservatively waiting for the other team to make the first mistake. The total opened as high as 42.5 at various shops but has been bet down to 41 and may continue to dip if money comes in on the 'under.'

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

"Last Monday the public recognized the mismatch with Browns-Jets and were rewarded. Sharp action was rather light until +7 appeared they were scooped up immediately," said Berg, who you can follow on Twitter @Percentberg. "Tonight's tilt is a bit different as both teams have really struggled out of the gate. Obviously the Bears thus far are a bigger disappointment between the two but the optimism is still reflected in Chicago as a -5.5-point favorite at Caesars.

"We took a highly regarded bet on the Bears at 4.5. The public bettors don't look as eager to back Chicago but most of them will eventually end up on them by kickoff."

Chicago Bears
Projected season win total: 9 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC North (pre-Week 1/current):7/4 to 14/5
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 5/1 to 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 12/1 to 25/1

Washington Redskins
Projected season win total: 6 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win NFC East (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 40/1
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 150/1 to 500/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 300/1 to 1000/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Neither the Bears nor Redskins have impressed over their first two games, and odds to win the NFC and Super Bowl at Westgate, but these teams are certainy perceived differently. The Bears have underperformed with Trubisky not taking a step forward yet and the offense struggling, but they're still regarded as dangerous in the fairly wide-open NFC. The perception of the 'Skins is that they'll finish among the lowest of the low in the conference, so odds may not be more lucrative that now if you believe a home upset here will spark a revival few others see coming.

The Packers, Vikings and Lions are off to strong starts in the NFC North, so a setback here would put the Bears at the bottom of a division where they they came into the week even with Minnesota (14/5) and ahead of Detroit (13/2). Green Bay (5/4) is the division favorite. Dallas and Philadelphia opened the week as co-favorites (10/11) to win the NFC East, so congratulations if you got in on the Cowboys before those numbers are adjusted following Sunday's results.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Bears were installed as a 4.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, opened the week as a 4-point 'chalk' throughout most shops and was bet up to 5.5 points on Sunday. The number is likely to fluctuate between 4.5 points and 5.5 points up until kickoff.

The money line opened at Chicago -200 at Caesars and has since climbed to -230. If you're in on the home underdog 'Skins to pick up their first victory, they've climbed from +175 to +190.

INJURY CONCERNS

Allen, a former Alabama standout who has quietly become one of the NFL's most formidable young forces up front, has vowed to play after suffering a knee injury and participated in full on Saturday. Safety Montae Nicholson will also go after dealing with a foot issue and tackle Morgan Moses (knee) will try and help make up Williams' absence.

The 'Skins will be missing LB Cassanova McKinzy and may be without corner Quinton Dunbar, so a suspect secondary could be even thinner. CB Fabian Moreau should play but has been bothered by an ankle issue. Veteran CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie landed on IR earlier this week.

The Bears appear to be the healthier group, ruling out only DT Bilal Nichols. Standout safety Eddie Jackson should play through a shoulder issue and nose tackle Eddie Goldman practiced through an oblique injury on Saturday and is expected to play. Pineiro, on the heels of his heroic season-altering make, is questionable after sustaining an oblique injury in the team weight room on Friday. If he can't play, Chicago will have until 3 PM ET on Monday to sign another kicker.

RECENT MEETINGS (Redskins 7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS last nine; OVER 5-3-1)

12/24/16 Redskins 41-21 at Bears (WASH -3, 49)
12/13/15 Redskins 24-21 at Bears (WASH +3.5, 43)
10/20/13 Redskins 45-41 vs. Bears (WASH +1, 47.5)
10/24/10 Redskins 17-14 at Bears (WASH +3, 40)
12/6/07 Redskins 24-16 vs. Bears (WASH -3, 40)
9/11/05 Redskins 9-7 vs. Bears (CHI +6, 33)
10/17/04 Redskins 13-10 at Bears (WASH +1.5, 33.5)
12/21/03 Bears 27-24 vs. Redskins (WASH +4, 35)
12/23/01 Bears 20-15 at Redskins (CHI +1, 33)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 4 currently has the Bears as a 3-point home favorite against the Vikings. The Redskins were listed as a 2-point underdog against the Daniel Jones' led Giants, but that number figures to change given Saquon Barkley's likely absence.

[Udog]

NFL Week 4 odds: Can Bills measure up to Patriots in battle of AFC East unbeatens?
Patrick Everson

Josh Allen has helped Buffalo to a 3-0 SU and ATS mark, but the first real test of the season awaits in Week 4. The Bills opened as 7-point home underdogs against the Patriots, who are also 3-0 (2-1 ATS).

The NFL regular season’s first month wraps up with some intriguing Week 4 matchups, including a battle of unbeatens in the AFC East. Covers checks in on that contest and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+7)

It’s no surprise at all that defending Super Bowl champion New England – despite the Antonio Brown drama – sits unbeaten through three weeks. The Patriots (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) had no trouble with the New York Jets on Sunday, building a 30-0 lead and coasting 30-14 as huge 20.5-point home favorites.

Buffalo being unbeaten is perhaps a bit of a surprise, since it opened with two straight road games – both at MetLife Stadium, where they beat the Jets and Giants. In Week 3, the Bills (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) blew all of a 14-0 halftime lead to Cincinnati, but got a late TD to win 21-17 as 5.5-point home faves.

“Buffalo is 3-0 but has done it against a super easy schedule,” Murray said. “We will find out a lot about Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense in this game. Their defense is legit.”

There weren’t enough takers on either side Sunday night to move the needle, as the line remained 7 flat.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (+3)

Dallas has had little trouble through three weeks, on the field or for bettors, going 3-0 SU and ATS. The Cowboys rolled over hapless Miami 31-6 Sunday to cover as hefty 22-point home favorites.

New Orleans lost Drew Brees to a thumb injury in Week 2 and likely won’t have his services for a few more weeks. However, the Saints (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) went to Seattle as 5-point pups and exited with a 33-27 outright victory behind Teddy Bridgewater.

Brees’ absence certainly takes the luster off this Sunday night matchup, but Dallas backers were interested from the jump.

“We took money immediately on Dallas and moved to -3 (-120),” Murray said of a price adjustment on the Cowboys, noting he expects more Pokes money to come. “The books will need the Saints big in this game.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Green Bay is also out of the gate 3-0 SU and has come through for bettors all three weeks, as well. The Packers took care of Denver on Sunday, going off as 7-point home favorites and claiming a 27-16 victory.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia has struggled in the early going, dropping two in a row while failing to cash in any of its three games. On Sunday, the Eagles (1-2 SU) were 4-point home faves against Detroit, trailed 20-10 at halftime and couldn’t quite get there in a 27-24 loss.

Philly also isn’t in a good spot for a short turnaround, playing Green Bay under the Thursday night lights.

“The Eagles are very banged up right now,” Murray said. “The Packers are 3-0 but weren’t overly impressive on offense today. Denver turnovers gave them some short fields to work with.”

This game also saw no early movement Sunday night.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Minnesota hopes it can bottle up some of its home success and take it on the road in Week 4. The Vikings (2-1 SU and ATS) rolled in in Weeks 1 and 3 at home, then fell in between at Green Bay. On Sunday, the Vikes discarded visiting Oakland 34-14 laying 8.5 points.

Chicago still has some Week 3 work to do, playing in the Monday nighter at Washington. The Bears (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) have yet to look like the 12-4 SU and ATS team of last year. After an extremely lackluster Week 1 home loss to Green Bay, the Bears barely escaped Denver with a 16-14 win on a last-second 53-yard field goal, failing to cover as 3-point favorites.

“It’s a short week for the Bears, and they will come home to host the Vikings in a critical division game,” Murray said. “Can Kirk Cousins avoid turning the ball over? If he does, I think the Vikings win on the road.”

While the Bears opened -2.5, the price at that number was -120. As of Sunday night, there were no moves.