NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Fri., Sep. 13 - Sat., Sep. 14)

[Udog]

Total Moves - Week 3
Matt Blunt

Week 2's underdog selections may have stunk up the joint, but last week's total plays were right on point. Oregon came out looking to take someone out behind the woodshed for a thorough beating and did just that against Nevada in an easy 'over' cashing, while the Illinois/Connecticut game topped out just over 50 as expected to stay below any and all moves on that total.

Sweeping the board like that always feels good – especially when you have an 0fer on the underdogs – but there is never too much time to pat yourself on the back in this business because then you are missing out on time spent researching and firing on the next winner(s). Can't expect to sweep the board every week, but it never hurts to try, so let's get right to this week's selections.

YTD: 3-1 ATS

Week 3 Total move to disagree with:

Alabama/South Carolina from 59.5 to 61.5

Disagreeing with a move on an Alabama total in Week 1 accounted for my only loss of the year so far with these total plays, but that isn't stopping me from going back to the well in that regard this week.

The market has seen early love for the high side of this total as Alabama rolls in to South Carolina needing to win by 26+ to cover the spread. Having averaged 52 points on offense for the first two weeks, you can get why an opening number of 60 did look low to many, hence the support for the high side of this number. I mean, whether Alabama covers this spread or not, it's hard not to believe they roll in this game as it is.

However, after Nick Saban spent much of the early week complaining about early start times due to the heat in the region, I'm not sure he's looking to run his guys up and down the field all afternoon here, as this may be one of those “get in, get out” type wins for Alabama this week. There is no concern about a big game upcoming, but with this being the first SEC game of the season, there will be that extra focus early on as the Tide establish their lead and likely look to bleed the clock from there.

At the same time, given that it is the first SEC road game of the year for Alabama, it's important to note that they have gone 2-3 O/U in that spot the past five years, allowing 7, 0, 43, 10, and 23 points in those games. The game that they pitched a shutout in back in 2017 actually cashed an 'over' as the Tide rolled over Vanderbilt with a 59-0 win, but that total was priced far too low at 42. Saban prides him program on making sure his stellar defense travels well, and that should be the case again this week.

South Carolina's offense is coming off a 72-point performance against Charleston Southern, and whenever there is a major step up in competition level like that, it's hard to expect anything near the same type of success offensively. That's a pretty obvious statement to make given that it's Alabama on the other side of the field, but this Gamecocks offense struggled against North Carolina in the opener, and scoring 10 or fewer points could definitely be in the cards for them this week against the Tide.

Will Muschamp also understands that if his team is to have a shot at pulling off a monumental upset here, it's not going to come in a 40-37 type game, it's going to come in a 28-27 type game, meaning his own defense better show out to stop Tua and company on that side of things.

What it all comes down to here is that to catch an 'over' ticket cashing, you are going to likely need 20+ points from South Carolina in this one, and there are just so many results in terms of game script where that just doesn't end up happening. Alabama's allowed 10 or less in three of those five first road SEC games of the season as it is, and with heat potentially being a factor here, this game has something like 42-13 written all over it.

Week 3 Total move to to agree with:

Clemson/Syracuse from 61 to 65

As I've stated from the start of these pieces a few weeks ago, it's always tough to bet into bad numbers like this and in-game wagering is likely the smarter way to go with these things, especially with a move the size of this one. But it's easy to agree with the 'over' support in this game for a variety of reasons.

The first being that Clemson's defense is in a great spot to have a mental letdown after dominating Texas A&M last week in the 24-10 win. That game was so hyped, and so critical to the potential success of Clemson's season that it's only natural in terms of the human nature concept for those guys to ease up a bit mentally this week against Syracuse. Yes, there have been some recent scares vs the Orange and that would have been a talking point in meeting rooms this week, but as a four TD road favorite, it's easy for those Clemson guys on defense to assume they'll just have to essentially show up and there shouldn't be too much worry about leaving with a W.

Offensively, Clemson's attack has to be salivating at the prospect of facing a Syracuse defense that gave up 63 points to Maryland last week in a game that was expected to be close. Facing that Orange defense might feel like the are up against a middle school team at times after that A&M game, and a team like Clemson that's got some of the best talent in the country on offense should have a field day. They should be able to easily get in the 40's against this team, if not threaten 60 themselves like Maryland did a week ago.

Conversely, Syracuse's offense is looking at this game as a huge redemption spot for them after getting blasted a week ago. And while South Carolina's path to a potential upset has got to come through strong defensive play, for Syracuse to do the same, it's got to be on the shoulders of QB Tommy Devito and the offense.

Devito was talked highly of coming into the year, but he's really yet to show anything of substance in deserving those kind words, and doing so on this stage could flip that narrative in a second. Going up against a Clemson defense that's nowhere near as talented as they have been in recent years, and one that may be lacking focus, this Syracuse attack that's scored 23+ points in this game in three of the past four years – against those far superior Tigers defensive units – has a shot to put up 30+ themselves this week if everything goes right.

That's still a big ask, and the best of the number is long gone, but getting 70+ points in this game is highly possible, and if Syracuse gets the ball first and has a quick three-and-out or something like that, the in-game number should be much closer to the opener and it's then where you can comfortably fire away on this 'over'.

Other Notable Moves

Down
Washington State-Houston: 75.5 to 73
Florida Atlantic-Ball State: 67.5 to 64.5
Buffalo-Liberty: 57.5 to 55
Florida-Kentucky: 50.5 to 48

Up
Maryland-Temple: 64 to 66.5
Stanford-Central Florida: 59.5 to 62
Colorado State-Arkansas: 60 to 64
Texas State-SMU: 59.5 to 62.5
TCU-Purdue: 51 to 53

[Udog]

by: Monte Andrews


SUN DEVILS’ SLOW STARTS

The Arizona State Sun Devils will need to be a whole lot better in the first half if they have any hope of being competitive this weekend against the host Michigan State Spartans. Arizona State has sleepwalked through the first half of its opening two games in 2019, scoring a combined 13 points prior to the half in victories over Kent State and Sacramento State. And that doesn't bode well at all for Herm Edwards' crew, which faces a Spartans team that has limited Tulsa and Western Michigan to just 14 first-half points in back-to-back one-sided wins.

Add in the fact that Michigan was the best team in the nation in 2018 at limiting first-half scoring – allowing just 6.3 points per game prior to the break – and it could be a rough start for the visiting Sun Devils. We like a pair of picks here, rolling with host Michigan State on the -7.5 first-half line and going with the Under on the first-half total of 21.

NOWHERE TO RUN

The UNLV Runnin' Rebels have certainly lived up to their moniker so far in 2019, but they'll face a daunting task Saturday as they tangle with a stout Northwestern Wildcats defense. The visiting Rebels are led by running back Charles Williams, who ranks third in the nation in rushing yards heading into the weekend (311) and already has four touchdowns on the ground. But the Wildcats are well-rested following a Week 2 bye and limited Stanford to just 3.38 yards per carry on 39 attempts in their season-opening 17-7 loss to the visiting Cardinal.

Northwestern is a 17.5-point home favorite going into this one – and their run-stopping success is no fluke, after they finished 26th in yards against per game last season. with the Rebels' pass offense very much a work in progress, look for the Wildcats to stamp out the ground game and cover the spread in this one.

SINDELAR A GAME-TIME DECISION

The Purdue starting quarterback situation likely won't be settled until just prior to Saturday's game against the visiting TCU Horned Frogs. Boilermakers head coach Jeff Brohm says that, while he's optimistic that Elijah Sindelar will be cleared from the concussion protocol in time for the game, it's far from a certainty. Sindelar, who suffered a concussion in Purdue's Week 2 victory over the Vanderbilt Commodores, is off to a blistering start to the season, having thrown for 932 yards and nine touchdowns against three interceptions. Freshman Jack Plummer will get the start in Sindelar's place if he can't go.

The concussion news dropped Purdue from being a slight favorite to a slight underdog for Saturday's game against the Horned Frogs. If Sindelar is cleared, jump on the home team money line before it shifts; if you're too late, you can still take the Boilermakers ATS if they emerge as the favorite again.

HAWAIIAN GENEROSITY

Hawaiians are a kind, generous people – and that philosophy extends to their football team, for better or worse, as the Warriors prepare to face the host Washington Huskies. Hawaii enters the game as one of the most careless teams in the country with the football, having turned it over a whopping eight times (three fumbles lost, five interceptions). And those extra possessions in favor of the home team could sink the Warriors' chances of competing against a Huskies team that is not only favored by roughly three touchdowns, but has also turned the ball over just twice so far.

Coupled with the Huskies coming off a +3 turnover differential showing in 2018 (and Hawaii finishing at -9), it's clear that the home side has the edge in the ball security department. Look for Washington to turn one of those Warriors turnovers into a touchdown, a development that pays out at +200.

WIMBUSH BACK IN THE MIX?

The Central Florida Knights will likely have their top three quarterbacks in the fold for this weekend's encounter with the visiting Stanford Cardinal. Reshirt senior Brandon Wimbush missed last week's game against Florida Atlantic due to an undisclosed injury, but head coach Jeff Lebby says Wimbush will be in action Saturday. Wimbush and Dillon Gabriel have split the majority of the work so far, but Darriel Mack has been cleared to return and might also hit the field against the Cardinal.

While winning the game is certainly the Knights' top priority, they might be almost as concerned with getting multiple quarterbacks into Saturday's game. And with this line having climbed all the way to UCF -9, the conditions are ideal for bettors to favor the visitors ATS given the uncertainty of the UCF offense.

STRAKEL TAKES OVER

The Arkansas Razorbacks have named graduate transfer Nick Starkel their starting quarterback ahead of Saturday's showdown with Colorado State. Starkel will take over for Ben Hicks, who started each of the Razorbacks' first two games but was pulled from both due to poor performances. Starkel, who came to Arkansas from Texas A&M, has been the far superior option so far, having completed better than 72 percent of his pass attempts while throwing the Razorbacks' only passing touchdown to date.

While the upgrade from Starkel to Hicks (who completed less than half of his attempts) is a favorable one, Arkansas' team total in this one is a sky-high 37.5. With the Razorbacks having scored just 37 points in two games, and Colorado State having finished in the top-30 in plays per game in two straight years (and is 18th this season), the Arkansas U37.5 is a decent play here.

GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS

It's been a good-news, bad-news kind of week for the Stanford Cardinal as they prepare to face the Central Florida Knights on Saturday. First, the good: The Cardinal will have quarterback KJ Costello back in the fold after he missed last week's loss to USC after suffering an injury in the first half of the season opener against Northwestern. Unfortunately, he'll be missing one of his key offensive lineman, with tackle Walker Little set to undergo season-ending knee surgery; he was also injured vs. the Wildcats.

While losing Little certainly hurts, the return of Costello is a big one for a Cardinal team that saw backup Davis Mills struggle against the Trojans (237 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). The Knights like it fast (ranking 30th in plays per game last season) and Costello is talented enough to lead Stanford over its 26.5-point team total.

AGGRAVATED AGGIES

A disappointing 24-10 setback to No. 1 Clemson wasn't the only loss the Texas A&M Aggies suffered last week; they've learned they'll be without leading rusher Jashaun Corbin for the remainder of the season with a hamstring injury. Corbin suffered the injury midway through the third quarter of last week's loss; he had compiled 34 yards on 13 carries to that point but gained over 100 yards the week prior in a victory over Texas Southern. Corbin finishes the year with 137 rushing yards and a score.

Given that the Aggies are ridiculous 43.5-point favorites for this week's game against visiting Lamar, look for head coach Jimbo Fisher to take full advantage and give as many of his players as much rest as possible; temperatures will also approach 100 degrees Fahrenheit, which is another good reason to pump the brakes. We like the Under-63 option here.

ONE TITANIC CHALLENGE

After comparing his team to "The Titanic," Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt will look to right the ship this week as the winless Volunteers host state rival Chattanooga. And getting back on track could mean a heavier reliance on a run game that has looked a lot better than the passing game through the first two weeks. Ty Chandler (202 yards) and Eric Gray (106) should both see plenty of action in a game in which the hosts are favored by four touchdowns.

Their early-season success, coupled with struggles from starting quarterback Jarrett Guarantano, could make this a 55-carry kind of game as Tennessee looks for its first win of the season. And with the Mocs coming in having averaged just 22 points per game against far inferior competition, we see the Vols controlling the game sufficiently to keep their foes below their team total.

[Udog]

Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in all FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Early Starts

Ohio State (-17/60) at Indiana, 12 p.m. ET, FOX: Hoosiers defensive coordinator Kane Wommack provided the Buckeyes some bulletin board material by saying his unit will look to take shots at QB Justin Fields every chance they get. After covering a 26-point spread in Columbus last season in a game it held a second-quarter lead in, Indiana is looking to avoid a 25th straight setback at the hands of Ohio State. Coming off an impressive shutout of Cincinnati, new coordinator Greg Mattison will look to contain a potentially explosive IU offense currently averaging 43 points per game. Ohio State will have tougher road games ahead but needs to identify other mainstays besides top NFL prospect Chase Young, making this an excellent test for the supporting cast on both sides of the ball. The Hoosiers are 0-9 against ranked opponents since Tom Allen took over but they’ve covered in the last three after starting 0-6 ATS. QB Michael Penix is listed as a game-time decision with an injury the Hoosiers have elected to be vague about. If the talented redshirt freshman can’t go, junior Peyton Ramsey would start.

Kansas State at Mississippi State (-7.5/51.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN: Penn State transfer Tommy Stevens was putting on a clinic against Southern Miss, missing on just one of his 10 throws before sustaining what looked to be an arm or shoulder injury. He’s hoping to return for the biggest non-conference game of the season. True freshman Garrett Shrader would start if Stevens can’t go, which is interesting since former starter Keytaon Thompson is back on the team after exploring a transfer and available to play. Stevens was able to practice some early in the week enough to anticipate his inclusion, but you better make sure before pulling the trigger. K-State has looked fantastic thus far against inferior competition, outscoring Nicholls State and Bowling Green 101-14. QB Skylar Thompson has shown off improved accuracy and excellent command of the new offense head coach Chris Klieman and coordinator Courtney Messingham have installed. The Wildcats have showcased their depth so far, so it will be fun to see who shows up in SEC country against a Bulldogs defense led by top corner Cameron Dantzler, who left the field against Southern Miss too but should be good to go. This will be Klieman’s first-ever test against an SEC opponent and doubles as the first time in years where he’s been an underdog considering he won four FCS titles and went 69-6 at North Dakota State.

NC State (-7/46.5) at West Virginia, 12 p.m. ET, FS1: After outscoring East Carolina and FCS member Western Carolina 75-6, the Wolfpack will get a true test on the road against the Mountaineers. Neal Brown’s team comes off a 38-7 loss at Missouri and is still clearly putting things together against a new coaching staff that has installed completely different systems. QB Austin Kendall has struggled with turnovers and veteran coordinator Vic Koenning’s defense hasn’t responded. He called them “too nice” this past week. An interesting subplot here is that new Wolfpack co-DC Tony Gibson ran the unit at West Virginia for the past five years, so he’s definitely got some inside information for the NC State offensive staff. New QB Matthew McKay will be making his first road start and has had issues overthrowing receivers.

Maryland (-6.5/66.5) at Temple, 12 p.m ET, CBSSN: Mike Locksley has the Terps averaging 71 points per game after impressive home victories over Howard and Syracuse. The immediate turnaround doesn’t appear to be a fluke. Maryland has quality personnel and Virginia Tech transfer Joshua Johnson has hit the ground running, throwing seven touchdown passes. Temple won last season’s meeting 35-14 in College Park as a 15-point underdog, but it has a new coach in place too given Geoff Collins’ departure to Georgia Tech and Rod Carey’s arrival from Northern Illinois. The Owls blew out Bucknell 56-12 to begin the season and have had a bye week to prepare. QB Anthony Russo topped the 400-yard mark against the Bison and was at the controls for last season’s upset. Temple is seeking its third win in four tries over Maryland and will have top tight ends Kenny Yeboah and David Martin-Robinson available despite a few nicks.

Miami (OH) at Cincinnati (-17.5/49.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU: The RedHawks haven’t held up the Victory Bell in 14 years and were blanked 21-0 last season, snapping a run that had seen them cover the number in five straight matchups between these neighbors. Coming off the program’s first shutout loss since 2005, Luke Fickell is hoping his team reacts positively to a “humbling experience.” Last year’s team didn’t lose consecutive games. RB Michael Warren was held to 15 yards on 10 carries and QB Desmond Ridder struggled due to a lack of protection and briefly left the field after suffering a shoulder injury that isn’t expected to be an issue. Miami true freshman QB Brett Gabbert, younger brother of former NFL first-round pick Blaine, wasn’t intimidated at Iowa and doesn’t appear to be the type who is easily rattled. He’s got solid targets in Jack Sorenson and Luke Mayock, nephew of the Raiders GM and former NFL Network analyst.

Pittsburgh at Penn State (-17/53.5), 12 p.m. ET, ABC: The Nittany Lions weren’t able to overcome Saquon Barkley’s departure enough to post double-digit wins last season and were going to start seeing whether they’ll be able to overcome losing record-setting QB Trace McSorley. Early results have been positive considering they’ve averaged 62 points in victories over Idaho and Buffalo, but they’ll face the best defense they’ll see until they run into the Big Ten’s big boys. Pitt safety Damar Hamlin is one of the nation’s best at his position and Pitt will be out for revenge after losing last year’s meeting 51-6 at Heinz Field. His matchup with PSU WR KJ Hamler will be one all NFL scouts will have their eyes on. Pitt HC Pat Narduzzi won the first meeting against James Franklin’s Nittany Lions 42-39 in 2016 but has seen his team outscored 84-20 in two losses since. This is the 100th and final scheduled meeting between these in-state rivals. The coaches aren’t necessarily friendly which is worth knowing if you’re laying points here since Penn State isn’t likely to let up if it has a chance to run up the score late.

Eastern Michigan at Illinois (-7/56) at Maryland, 12 p.m. ET, BTN: The Eagles come off a disappointing 38-17 loss to Kentucky in which it was pushed around up front, something they’ve been able to avoid with increasing regularity under Chris Creighton as the program has managed to turn things around in reaching two bowls over the past three seasons after nearly a 30-year drought. Eastern Michigan has struggled to establish and stop the run despite coming in 1-1 after an upset at Coastal Carolina and last weekend’s loss in Lexington. QB Mike Glass and RB Shaq Vann are proven playmakers looking to help keep the Illini from opening 3-0 for the first time since they won their first six games in Ron Zook’s last stand back in 2011. The Illini has played two of the worst FBS programs in the country thus far, so ranking in the top 10 nationally in tackles for loss and rushing yards allowed is tempered some as a result. QB Brandon Peters has thrown seven TD passes, but the Michigan transfer will be facing a much better secondary than he’s faced to date given the presence of All-MAC CB Kevin McGill and safeties Vince Calhoun and Brody Hoying. Illinois should have RB Reggie Corbin back from a hip pointer, which should make a big difference considering they lost top back Mike Epstein to a season-ending injury in Week 1.

Arkansas State at Georgia (-33/58), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The ‘Dawgs will face the best offense they’ve run into date with the Red Wolves in town. The perennial Sun Belt power saw head coach Blake Anderson return to the sideline after a one-week absence following the death of his wife, who succumbed to cancer just before the season began. Arkansas State went out to Vegas and crushed the Rebels 43-17 with a dominant effort on both sides of the ball. Georgia hasn’t been perfect this season, sputtering offensively against Vandy and struggling with consistency on the defensive end against overmatched Murray State, so perhaps we’ll see a complete effort here if it gives the visitors the respect the game tape commands. That’s the only way this spread gets covered. Receivers Omar Bayless and Kirk Merritt will be sky high to play their best against an SEC secondary, so QB Logan Bonner could continue a big season if he’s accurate. He’s thrown for an average of over 300 yards with six TDs and just one interception against SMU and UNLV.

Air Force at Colorado (-3.5/58), 1 p.m. ET, Pac-12: This line inspired a double-take considering how well the Buffs have played through the first two games of the Mel Tucker era, which has produced a blowout of Colorado State and a riveting comeback win over Nebraska. If there’s a hangover from rallying past the ‘Huskers as this number projects, it could manifest in being unable to properly deal with the nuances of the triple option. Air Force is playing Colorado for the first time in 45 years and opens Pac-12 play next week but Tucker refuses to call this a “trap” game and expects his team to remain disciplined. The long-time coordinator and defensive backs coach has worked at the highest levels, so he hasn’t seen much of the triple option. The Falcons threw just one pass in their opener but will need to diversify the offense more to pull off an upset. Donald Hammond III and Isaiah Sanders are each capable of throwing it around but Air Force did lose its top two receivers. Buffs WR Laviska Shenault has scored just one touchdown this season, so he could be poised to break out as well.

San Diego State (-16/51) at New Mexico State, 9 p.m. ET: The Aggies have been trounced by Washington State and Alabama, so it’s important the Aztecs don’t believe they’re just going to show up in Las Cruces and win by 30. Getting his players to believe this has been Rocky Long’s objective on the heels of an upset to UCLA, the first win in school history over the Bruins. QB Ryan Agnew looked sharp in throwing for a career-high 293 yards but it remains to be seen whether SDSU asks him to do much here with a huge game against Utah State on deck. San Diego State has allowed only seven points per game and has surrendered just 207.5 yards of total offense. NMSU sophomore QB Josh Adkins has some weapons around him on offense but will be tasked with facing another fantastic defense and has to be looking forward to next week’s rivalry game with New Mexico for more of a fair fight.

Florida Atlantic (-5.5/59) at Ball State, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN+: After coming up empty against ranked opponents in Ohio State and UCF, FAU gets someone in its weight class, albeit on the road, where it has dropped a dozen consecutive non-conference games. Ball State head coach Mike Neu beat the Owls in Boca Raton in his first season 31-27, but that win came against Lane Kiffin’s predecessor, Charlie Partridge. To take down the visiting Owls, the Cardinals will likely need another big day from QB Drew Plitt, who threw for 439 yards and six TDs in Saturday’s 57-29 win over Fordham. The Owls have been sacked nine times and is hoping to get QB Chris Robison into a sustained rhythm. FAU lost its top rushers from last season and has seen RB BJ Emmons (broken ankle), Malcolm Davidson (undisclosed) and Daniel Leconte (concussion) all miss time already. Freshman Larry McCammon might be pressed into significant action, but the Owls are going to have to make plays through the air to win in Muncie.

New Mexico at Notre Dame (-34.5/64), 2:30 p.m. ET, NBC: Bob Davie won’t coach after being hospitalized following the season-opening win over Sam Houston State. Divulging only that he suffered a serious medical incident, Davie will watch from home as his Lobos try to hang with the Fighting Irish despite the absence of starting QB Brandt Hughes (labrum) and top nose tackle Aaron Blackwell, who tore his ACL. Saga Tuitele will fill-in for Davie and speedy senior Sherrion Jones is expected to start under center. Notre Dame defeated Louisville to open the season and is looking for Ian Book to polish some things up ahead of next week’s massive trip to Georgia. Unless the Irish dominate the first half and put the game out of reach by the fourth quarter, covering the team’s largest spread since 1996 will likely come down to backups and the running game since Brian Kelly isn’t likely to throw to run up the score late. RB Kyren Williams should see a significant role down the stretch.

Afternoon Delights

Akron at Central Michigan (-1/44.5), 3 p.m. ET, ESPN+: These teams were picked to finish near the bottom of their respective divisions, but one of them will end up 1-0 to open up MAC play. The Zips have struggled in that they didn’t score their first touchdown until the fourth quarter of their second game after Illinois and UAB had already gone up by substantial amounts. They catch a break in facing the Chippewas without QB Quinten Dormady, RB Jonathan Ward and DE Amir Siddiq, all of whom are out with injuries for the foreseeable future. QB David Moore, who played at Memphis briefly a few years ago, will start for Central Michigan. Akron QB Kato Nelson finally warmed up against Blazers backups in throwing his first two touchdown passes but did lead his team to an upset of Northwestern and a pair of MAC wins last season, including a 17-10 win over the Chips.

Stanford at UCF (-9/59.5), 3:30 p.m ET, ESPN: The Knights could have Darriel Mack, Jr. back in the lineup for his first start, but freshman Dillon Gabriel could make his second straight start. Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush is expected to be available after missing last week’s win at FAU, so UCF head coach Josh Heupel has a number of quality options he can utilize to win a home game that ranks among the most important in UCF history. He’s keeping his decision to himself, whereas Stanford counterpart David Shaw has made no secret that senior K.J. Costello is “full go” to return after missing last week’s loss to USC. Top tackle Walker Little is out for the season after knee surgery, while a defense that got torched in the second half at USC will now have to deal with one of college football’s fastest offenses thousands of miles from home. UCF has won 16 consecutive home games.

Alabama (-25/56.5) at South Carolina, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS: True freshman Ryan Hilinski debuted with a 16-for-19 effort and three touchdowns against Charleston Southern so of course he’s now ready to face Alabama. The Gamecocks are massive underdogs despite being at home in Columbia, where they beat the Tide back in 2010. South Carolina has won three of the last five against ‘Bama and is 1-1 against Nick Saban, who has excelled against East Division teams and has dominated on the road in conference play. Duke and New Mexico State haven’t tested a new-look Crimson Tide defense that has been weakened by injuries so this game should be telling since it’s going to be their toughest test until they visit Texas A&M on Oct. 12. Tua Tagovailoa has put up gaudy stats but agreed with Saban’s assessment that the passing game has looked sloppy. My expectation is that we’ll still see him in the game come fourth quarter.

East Carolina at Navy (-7.5/53.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+: Mike Houston picked up his first victory as ECU head coach in a 48-9 rout of Gardner-Webb but faces a difficult opening game in American Athletic Conference play. The Midshipmen have averaged 55.5 points in their two most recent wins against the Pirates and will be looking to get off to a strong start after falling off and losing 10 games last season. Ken Niumatololo didn’t have to show off much in a 45-7 rout of Holy Cross but has a visit to Memphis up next and will be looking to get explosive senior Malcolm Perry more comfortable under center as a passer.

Army (-17/45) at Texas-San Antonio, 3:30 p.m. ET, NFLN: UTSA got lit up for multiple touchdowns in every quarter against Baylor last week and will need to improve on its tackling and fundamentals with the Black Knights in town. After narrowly missing out on a monumental upset at Michigan, Army is back on the road looking to make sure the disappointment over coming up short in double-overtime against the Wolverines doesn’t beat them twice. The Roadrunners failed to prevent the big play against the Bears but should be well prepared for the triple option since defensive coordinator Jason Rollins gained plenty of experience against it while at Tulane. Army has won at least two true road games outright in each of the last three seasons to put an end to a 1-24 run from ’11-’15.

USC (-4/55.5) at BYU, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC: The Trojans put together a huge second half to rout Stanford last week and now arrive in Provo hoping a road atmosphere doesn’t slow true freshman Kedon Slovis. He set a school record for most passing yards by a true freshman in his first start, finishing 28-for-33 for 377 yards with three TDs. Between taking control of the team immediately to showing off an accurate arm, Kurt Warner’s protégé looks like the real deal and will look to generate more confidence entering a grueling three-game stretch where USC must square off against Utah, Washington and Notre Dame. The Cougars looked headed to 0-2 before pulling off a miracle comeback at Tennessee, but BYU fans have grown restless watching Kalani Sitake drop big games and could turn against this group if they fall behind early. Sophomore QB Zach Wilson has struggled thus far but did make big throws when he needed to most in helping beat the Vols. USC is 2-0 all-time vs. BYU (’03-’04)..

Georgia Southern at Minnesota (-16.5.5/51), 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN: The Eagles still don’t know if they’ll have QB Shai Werts, who missed last week’s win over Maine with a shoulder injury. Redshirt freshman Justin Tomlin would start if Werts can’t go. The Gophers have survived against South Dakota State and Fresno State behind Tanner Morgan, who is 6-2 as the starter and has gained the trust of PJ Fleck and the rest of the staff due to his poise under pressure. With an entire Big Ten schedule ahead after this game and next week’s bye, this will be a test of Minnesota’s focus. The Gophers have to prepare for a triple option they won’t see again all season, setting this up to be a “trap” game, particularly if Werts can go. Georgia Southern is 1-10 in 11 non-conference road games since moving up to FBS.:

UNLV at Northwestern (-18/52.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN: The Rebels come off an embarrassing loss to Arkansas State where they fell 43-17 despite closing as a slight favorite. Armani Rodgers will start for UNLV, but redshirt freshman Kenyon Oblad will play and appears to be gaining on unseating the junior starter. He’ll probably get his chance to impress here given the likelihood this ends up lopsided and requires mop-up duty. Northwestern lost QB T.J. Green to a season-ending foot injury against Stanford, so Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson is going to be the guy in Evanston. He’ll need to improve on a dreadful outing against the Cardinal where he finished 6-for-17 for 55 yards, threw two picks and fumbled on a sack to doom all Northwestern bettors of a certain cover. The Wildcats play five consecutive heavyweights after this contest;.

Oklahoma State at Tulsa (-14/64), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Cowboys have already imposed their will at Oregon State and won easily against McNeese State, so they’re building up to Big 12 play that opens next week with a trip to Austin to battle Texas. Redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders has settled in as the quarterback in a run-heavy attack that takes advantage of the speed and power of playmakers Tylan Wallace and Chuba Hubbard. The Golden Hurricane come off a win at San Jose State after generating little offense at Michigan State. Baylor transfer Zach Smith won’t blink in front of a talented Cowboys defense but may not have junior RB Corey Taylor due to an upper body injury that would leave Shamari Brooks and TK Wilkerson as the team’s primary backs. Tulsa has won 12 of 13 home openers but has dropped six straight against Oklahoma State.

Memphis (-19.5/55) at South Alabama, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU: The Tigers hit the road for the first time and should know enough not to overlook the Jaguars, who they were tied against at the break when the teams met at the Liberty Bowl just last season. Memphis pulled away for a 52-35 win. Top safety La’Andre Thomas didn’t play in that game and has had an uneven season since he was ejected for targeting against Ole Miss, so he could have a big impact. The Tigers haven’t won their road opener in any of Mike Norvell’s three seasons at the helm. RB Patrick Taylor is out with a foot injury. Evan Orth torched the Tigers last season but graduated, so Cephus Johnson will start. Top DE Tyree Turner is out with an ankle injury. Despite his absence, the Jaguars’ defense looks much improved, as does Memphis.

Iowa at Iowa State (-1/42.5), 4 p.m. ET, FS1: ESPN’s GameDay is in Ames for CyHawk, so Iowa has to deal with an electric atmosphere as they look to snap a four-game losing streak. Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell is 0-3 against the big state school and has managed just three points in a pair of losses in Iowa City. At home, ISU lost 44-41 as three-point underdogs in OT back in 2017. Cyclones QB Brock Purdy hasn’t participated in a loss at home while Kirk Ferentz can rely on Nate Stanley, who led the frantic comeback as a sophomore, winning the game in OT. If the number is any indication, we’ll likely get a competitive game that goes down to the wire. Standout edge rusher AJ Epenesa has the ability to disrupt Iowa State’s offense, while the Iowa attack can rely on Stanley but centers on an effective ground game, so it’s no surprise to see this total emerge as the lowest of the day.

Colorado State at Arkansas (-10/64), 4 p.m. ET, SECN: Nick Starkel will start after SMU transfer Ben Hicks was ineffective despite having the inside track for the job due to his familiarity with Chad Morris’ system. Given the lack of production (18.5 ppg), you can expect to see a faster tempo since the Hogs have to find a rhythm this week and next against visiting San Jose State if they’re going to have any chance to be remotely competitive in SEC play. Colorado State gave up 52 points to Colorado and didn’t have much of a challenge against Western Illinois, so this will be a better barometer of where the Rams are as Mike Bobo looks to get things turned around. He’s 2-9 against Power-5 schools since taking over at CSU. Collin Hill is completing over 70 percent of his passes and has thrown seven touchdowns, so the Rams might welcome a shootout themselves.

Western Kentucky at Louisville (-10/49.5), 4 p.m. ET, Stadium: The Hilltoppers bounced back from losing to FCS-member Central Arkansas by winning their conference opener at Florida International. With his first victory at WKU under his belt, Tyson Helton now takes a shot at a second consecutive upset against another head coach only a few games into his tenure, Louisville’s Scott Satterfield. After losing to Notre Dame and crushing Eastern Kentucky, the Cards look to avoid an upset before ACC play begins next weeks with a visit to Florida State. Starting QB Puma Pass is rumored to be dealing with a foot injury, which could press sophomore Malik Cunningham into duty. He’s more of a runner, which could lead to a lower-scoring game since the WKU defense would have to respect the passing game less. Louisville won 20-17 last season as a 23-point favorite. It has won 10 straight games in the series.

Arizona State at Michigan State (-14.5/42), 4 p.m. ET, FOX: Herm Edwards posted wins over USC, Utah, UCLA and rival Arizona in his first season at ASU, but his most surprising involved a fourth-quarter comeback on Michigan State in Tempe in the regular-season’s second game. He picked up a 16-13 win over the highly respected Mark Dantonio and served notice that this return to college was no misguided diversion. Critics had assumed that the game had passed Edwards by. Beating Sparty provided validation. This time around, this game is likely to serve primarily as an education for freshman Jayden Daniels, the highly touted freshman who will start his first college road game against an excellent defense. The Sun Devils will try to make life easier for him by riding RB Eno Benjamin, who amassed just 26 yards on 13 carries last year. Michigan State QB Brian Lewerke, who went to high school in Phoenix, is looking for payback and has gotten off to a strong start in helping MSU average 39.5 points per game.

North Texas at California (-14/50.5), 4:15 p.m. ET, Pac-12: The Bears are looking to reach a bowl in consecutive years for the first time in a decade and are off to a fantastic start after pulling off a 20-19 upset of Washington in Seattle. Cal will look to open 3-0 for a third straight year under Justin Wilcox and have put together an impressive defense to serve as the backbone. Sophomore QB Chase Garbers helped set up Greg Thomas for a game-winning field goal to take down U-Dub and looks to light up a North Texas defense that is surrendering an average of 40 points per game. The Mean Green won at Arkansas 44-17 last season and are looking for their second straight Power-5 conquest under head coach Seth Littrell, who has covered all three of his games against P-5’s despite winning outright only once. QB Mason Fine is the nation’s leading active passer and will be looking to put his ability to overcome a lack of size against a talented defense on tape here, making this a crucial game for his future. Fine threw for just 152 yards last week and couldn’t complete a single pass to top receiver Rico Bussey, so massive changes are likely to be in store.

Louisiana Tech (-11.5/59) at Bowling Green, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN+: It’s homecoming at BGSU, where the Falcons hope to bounce back after suffering a humiliating 52-0 loss at Kansas State. Scott Loeffler inherited a solid offensive line. The Bulldogs have been unable to stop the run, which bodes well for Falcons RB Andrew Clair and QB Darius Wade as they try to go into MAC play over .500. La Tech has been unable to get WR Adrian Hardy on track, so that could be in play here via play action since BGSU has also struggled to stop the run and may bite on any fakes, leaving receivers in one-one-ones against suspect secondaries down the field. J’Mar Smith had productive games against Texas and Grambling and has proven he can handle a road atmosphere.

[Udog]

College football Saturday odds and line moves: Legal sports betting bolsters Iowa-Iowa State
Patrick Everson

The Week 3 Saturday slate in college football includes a key rivalry game in a state that only recently welcomed legal sports betting, and that’s definitely making an impact. We check in on the action and odds movement for that contest and a few others, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US.

NO. 18 IOWA AT IOWA STATE – OPEN: +1; MOVE: +1.5; MOVE: +2; MOVE: +2.5; MOVE: +2

Iowa is out of the gate 2-0 (1-1 ATS), although Kirk Ferentz’s troops went off as heavy favorites in both matchups. On Saturday, the Hawkeyes routed Rutgers 30-0 as 18-point home favorites, a week after dumping Miami-Ohio 38-14 giving 25 points. The line is much tighter for this 4 p.m. ET showdown.

Iowa State was less than impressive in Week 1, so a Week 2 bye probably wasn’t such a bad thing. The Cyclones (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) opened against FCS foe Northern Iowa and went off as 22.5-point home faves, yet needed a last minute field goal to tie the game at 13 and reach overtime. Iowa State went on to win 29-26 in triple-OT.

William Hill US has an interesting position on this game, because it now has mobile and brick-and-mortar sports betting operations in Iowa. This rivalry game has drawn tremendous interest within the state and beyond, as the Hawkeyes moved from 1-point road favorites to -2.5, before ticking back to -2 Friday.

“It’s a very well-bet game,” Bogdanovich said of action for a 4 p.m. ET kickoff. “Money is 3/1 for Iowa. Very big handle, and it’s only gonna get bigger. We need the underdog as of right now.”

NO. 4 OKLAHOMA AT UCLA – OPEN: +21.5; MOVE: +22; MOVE: +23; MOVE: +23.5

Oklahoma hasn’t been challenged yet, and bettors don’t feel it’ll happen this week either, based on the way this line has run since first opening. The Sooners (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) coasted past Houston in Week 1, then blasted FCS foe South Dakota State 70-14 as massive 46.5-point favorites Saturday.

Things aren’t quite as good in Westwood, where UCLA coach Chip Kelly could find the seat of his pants heating up if he can’t get more out of his squad. In Week 2, the Bruins (0-2 SU and ATS) were 7.5-point home favorites against San Diego State, but lost outright 23-14.

William Hill US opened Oklahoma -21.5 Monday morning and shot to 23 by Monday night, then went to 23.5 Thursday morning. Books around Vegas took some sizable action on the Sooners on Wednesday – two mid-five-figure bets and one $33,000 bet, all at -23 – but Bogdanovich said his shop has yet to see such a wager. Not that it makes much difference.

“It’ll be a monster, monster game, and it’s a night game,” he said of an 8 p.m. ET start. “We’ll need UCLA huge. When push comes to shove, by the time this kicks off, that’ll be the biggest decision of the day.”

STANFORD AT NO. 16 UCF – OPEN: -7.5; MOVE: -7; MOVE: -7.5; MOVE: -8; MOVE: -8.5; MOVE: -9

When it comes to the regular season, nobody is hotter than Central Florida, riding a 26-game SU streak that has been a boon for bettors, too, at 18-7-1 ATS. The Knights (2-0 SU and ATS) dumped Florida Atlantic 48-14 laying 13.5 points Saturday.

Stanford gets some good news for this 3:30 p.m. ET start, with quarterback K.J. Costello returning from a head injury suffered in a Week 1 home win over Northwestern. Without Costello in Week 2, the Cardinal (1-1 SU and ATS) got rolled at Southern California 45-20 as 3.5-point pups.

However, the news of Costello’s return didn’t bolster Stanford, as UCF went from a 7.5-point chalk to 9.

“We need Stanford big,” Bogdanovich said.

NO. 1 CLEMSON AT NO. 22 SYRACUSE – OPEN: +26.5; MOVE: +27.5; MOVE: +27; MOVE: +27.5; MOVE: +28

Clemson, a perennial national championship contender, has found Syracuse to be a tough out each of the past two years. In the 2017-18 season, the Orange sprung a 27-24 upset as 24-point home ‘dogs, and last year, the Tigers needed a late TD in a 27-23 home victory, again laying 24 points.

Clemson (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) is coming off a solid 24-10 win over Texas A&M as 16.5-point home favorites. The Tigers were covering until A&M scored a touchdown with six seconds remaining. Syracuse (1-1 SU and ATS) got hammered last week at Maryland, 63-20 catching 1 point.

“We’re definitely gonna need Syracuse, probably more for parlays than for straight bets,” Bogdanovich said, noting Clemson will be on plenty of public bettors’ parlay tickets.

Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET.

NO. 24 USC AT BYU – OPEN: +4; MOVE: +4.5; MOVE: +4; MOVE: +4.5; MOVE: +4

Brigham Young bounced back from a Week 1 rivalry loss to Utah by going on the road and knocking out a Power Five squad. The Cougars (1-1 SU and ATS) converted a last-second field goal to forge a 16-16 tie at Tennessee, then went on to a 29-26 overtime victory catching 3 points.

Southern Cal lost quarterback JT Daniels before halftime in Week 1 against Fresno State, but true freshman Kedon Slovis has been up to the task so far. Last week, Slovis was a sparkling 28 of 33 for 377 yards and three touchdowns as the Trojans (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) stumped Stanford 45-20 giving 3.5 points at home.

Although this line is back at the opener, there’s no question which side WillHill needs in a 3:30 p.m. ET kick.

“We need BYU pretty good,” Bogdanovich said. “We got a ton of money on USC – straight bets, parlays and moneyline parlays.”

Other noteworthy games:

• No. 25 Maryland at Temple, noon ET: The Terrapins boatraced visiting Syracuse 63-20 last week, then opened -8 vs. the Owls, but the line was down to 7 by Tuesday. “Good handle, dead even,” Bogdanovich said. “A lotta parlays to Maryland, so we’ll probably need Temple. The masses like that Maryland had two monster games.” In Week 1, the Terps hammered Howard 79-0.

• No. 6 Ohio State at Indiana, noon ET: The Buckeyes opened -15.5 and climbed the ladder to -17.5 by Thursday. “All Buckeyes,” Bogdanovich said. “That’ll be a big one for the house. We need the Hoosiers big.”

• No. 8 Florida at Kentucky, 7 p.m. ET: The Gators opened -9, dipped to -8, then went back to the opener Friday evening. “That’s not too bad right now, but I have a feeling there’s gonna be a lot of Florida money (today), so we’ll probably need the ‘dog.”

• Texas Tech at Arizona, 10:30 p.m. ET: With the late kickoff, this Big 12/Pac-12 clash is this week’s get-even or get-even-deeper game. The Red Raiders opened -3 on the road and dipped to -2 midweek. “We’ll probably need Arizona small. More parlays for Texas Tech. Straight bets are dead even, but there’s not a lot in the pot.”

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

College Football Week 3 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 56-12
Against the Spread 39-28-1

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 44-24
Against the Spread 32-35-1

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 32-36

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 203-28
Against the Spread 116-109-6

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 172-55
Against the Spread 106-115-6

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 109-121-3

The largest underdogs to win straight up
The Citadel (+27.5, ML +1500) at Georgia Tech, 27-24 (OT)
Kansas (+20.5, ML +800) at Boston College, 48-24
Arizona State (+15.5, ML +550) at Michigan State, 10-7
Eastern Michigan (+7.5, ML +230) at Illinois, 34-31
Kansas State (+7, ML +220) at Mississippi State, 31-24
West Virginia (+7, ML +220) vs. N.C. State, 44-27

The largest favorites to cover
Louisiana-Lafayette (-47) vs. Texas Southern, 77-6
Texas A&M (-45.5) vs. Lamar, 62-3
Miami-Florida (-41) vs. Bethune-Cookman, 63-0
Missouri (-35) vs. SE Missouri State, 50-0
Notre Dame (-34.5) vs. New Mexico, 66-14
Georgia (-33) vs. Arkansas State, 55-0

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- Cincinnati bounced back from a shellacking from Ohio State last week, topping Miami-Ohio for the cover as 17-point favorites in their rivalry game. 'Under' bettors lucked out a bit (see below in bad beats). The Bearcats are 2-0 SU/ATS at home, while the 'under' has connected in all three of their outings. ... Temple pulled the mild upset over Maryland, 20-17, cashing +180 on the moneyline. UMD opened as high as an eight-point favorite, falling to 5.5 by gametime. The Owls are now 2-0 SU/ATS through two outings with a trip to Buffalo on deck next week. ... Houston fell to Washington State in NRG Stadium on Friday night in a neutral-site battle, 31-24. It was expected to be a high-scoring game with a line of 74, but a scoreless first quarter helped the total go well under. Houston is 0-2 SU vs. Power 5 teams so far, but 2-0 ATS. The 'under' is 2-0-1 for the Cougars in three games overall. ... Navy roughed up East Carolina in the conference opener for both. The Middies won 42-10, easily covering for the second time in as many games as they improved to 2-0 SU/ATS with the 'under' 2-0.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Wake Forest outlasted North Carolina 24-18 on Friday night in what was actually not a league game despite both being ACC members. Due to the cross-division scheduling in the ACC, these teams were scheduled to meet once every few years, and the schools wanted to ignite the rivalry on a more regular basis. Wake is now 3-0 SU, but this was their first cover (1-1-1 ATS). ... Georgia Tech wasn't as fortunate, falling to FCS The Citadel in overtime in Atlanta, 27-24. The Bulldogs weren't exactly a powerhouse in the FCS, well out of the Top 25 rankings, and receiving just three votes in the past FCS poll. Embarrassing loss for the Ramblin' Wreck. ... Virginia Tech nearly met the same fate, edging Furman 24-17. To be fair, the Paladins were at least ranked No. 13 in the FCS rankings this past week. That's three games and three non-covers for the Hokies, and the 'under' has hit in each of their two home outings. ... Virginia moved to 3-0 SU with a comeback win against Florida State, 31-24. The Seminoles took the 24-17 lead 11:42 to go, but the Hoos rallied with a touchdown at 6:02. However, they misfired on the extra point and were still down 24-23. With 2:34 to go, UVA scored a touchdown with a two-point conversion, causing the line to push at most shops. The two-point conversion also pushed the total 'over' (54).

BIG TEN

-- Ohio State went on the road for the first time this season and throttled Indiana, 51-10. The Buckeyes have scored at least 42 points in each of their three game, but this was their first 'over' result - barely. The game closed at 60.5 at most shops. ... Illinois suffered its first setback of the season against visiting Eastern Michigan, 34-31. It was also the first 'over' result after two unders for the Illini. Illinois tied the game 31-31 with 1:44 to push the total over, but EMU booted a 24-yard field goal with no time left to win it outright. ... Penn State was favored by 17 points against rival Pittsburgh, and if that seemed rather high it's because it was. The Nittany Lions won their rivalry game by a 17-10 count as the 'under' comfortably cashed. It was a departure from the first two games when the Lions posted 79 and 45 against Idaho and Buffalo. It was also PSU's first non-cover in three tries. ... Minnesota avoided the upset bug against Georgia Southern, hanging 35-32. The Golden Gophers are 3-0 SU, but 0-2-1 ATS with a pair of 'over' results in the past two games.

BIG 12

-- Kansas opened the week with a win at Boston College, snapping a 48-game road losing streak against Power 5 teams. Les Miles has the Jayhawks sitting at 2-1 SU, but this was their first win over an FBS team and it was the first cover for Kansas in three games. ... Kansas State also took care of business on the road against a Power 5 team, edging Mississippi State, 31-24. The Wildcats have fired out of the box at 3-0 SU/ATS. ... West Virginia upended N.C. State in Morgantown by a 44-27 count. The matchup in 2018 was wiped out in Raleigh by Hurricane Florence, and the Wolfpack likely wish a storm struck before this one, too. The Mountaineers earned their first win against an FBS team, their first cover and first 'over' in three tries. ... Oklahoma State had their hands full at Tulsa, but they eventually pulled away 40-21. The Cowboys actually trailed 21-20 at half. The Golden Hurricane were blanked in the second half helping the 'under' (64) connected. ... Oklahoma routed UCLA behind QB Jalen Hurts, who ran for 99 yards on the team's first drive. The Sooner ended up with the 48-14 win, improving to 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS ahead of their conference opener with Texas Tech. ... Speaking of the Red Raiders, they were topped 28-14 at Arizona, 28-14. The 'under' has cashed in three straight for the Red Raiders. ... Texas dropped Rice 48-13 in a game featuring some craziness at the end to affect the line and total (see below).

CONFERENCE USA

-- Florida Atlantic stepped out of conference at Ball State for the 41-31 road victory. They're 2-0 SU/ATS on the road so far this season, averaging 31.0 PPG while allowing 38.0 PPG. The total is 1-1-1 with FAU so far through three games. ... Western Kentucky put a late scare into Louisville side bettors, but the Cards held on for the cover at both 10 and 10.5, depending on when you bet. The Cards had a 31-7 lead at half, and appeared well on the way to an easy cover, but Western fought back to close to 17 with 12:50 to go, but that was the last score of the day. ... North Texas also gave it a nice run at California, but came up short in a 23-17 loss. The Mean Green fell behind 20-0, much to the dismay of UNT side bettors and 'under' (50.5) bettors, but North Texas held Cal to just three points in the final three quarters for the cover and under. It was UNT's first cover in three games, and their first under result.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Central Michigan bounced back from a 61-point drumming at Wisconsin last week, topping Akron 45-24 in the MAC opener for both sides. The 'over' has connected in all three games for the Chippewas so far this season. The over has hit in each of the past two for the Zips, too. Akron slipped to 0-3 SU/ATS overall. ...

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- Air Force scored one for the Mountain West, following in the footsteps of Boise State earlier this season. The Falcons picked up a road win against a Power 5 team, besting Colorado in overtime, 30-23. Despite the extra session, 'over' (58.5) bettors were still left with a losing ticket. The Falcons are 2-0 SU/Ats heading into their MWC opener against the aforementioned Broncos on the Smurf Turf next Friday. ... New Mexico was unable to pull the stunner in South Bend, as they were blasted by Notre Dame, 66-14. The Lobos have hit the 'over' in each of their two outings, allowing 97 points in two games. ... Colorado State was also unable to join the group, as they were slapped down at Arkansas by a 55-34 count. This game was actually tied 34-34, but the Rams were blanked 21-0 in the final quarter by Chad Morris' group.

PAC-12

-- Oregon State comfortably passed FCS Cal Poly by a 45-7 score, picking up their second straight cover and 'under' result. ... USC was tripped up in overtime by a 30-27 score at Brigham Young, as the Cougars won in overtime for the second consecutive weekend. Freshman QB Kedon Slovis did all right in his first collegiate road outing, but a tipped pass in OT doomed him. ... Another Pac-12 team took it on the chin in a non-conference road outing, as Stanford was unable to slow UCF. The Knights came away with the 45-27 victory, and over (58.5) bettors were aided by a 28-point first quarter by the Knights, and 35 total points after 15 minutes. ... Arizona State scored a touchdown with :50 left in East Lansing, pulling the 10-7 upset at Michigan State. It's the second consecutive season the Sun Devils topped the Spartans by three points, as they upended Sparty in Tempe by a 16-13 count on Sept. 8, 2018. The 'under' has cashed in three in a row for AZ State. MSU appeared to have the game-tying field goal to force OT, but they were whistled for 12 men on the field. The next field, five yards back, was no good. ... Utah belted FCS Idaho State by a 31-0 score, failing to cover the 37.5-number. The Utes moved to 3-0 SU, but they're just 1-2 ATS with the 'under' 2-1.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Tennessee finally found someone they could beat - FCS Chattanooga. The Mocs were the sacrificial lamb on Saturday, falling 45-0 to the Volts, who win for the first time in 2019. It was their first cover of the season, too, and first 'under' result thanks to the defensive effort. ... Georgia wasn't caught looking ahead to Notre Dame, spanking a pretty good Arkansas State team by a 55-0 mark. The UGA offense has piled up 49.3 PPG through three outings, and they're allowed just 7.7 PPG. ... Alabama was able to ease past South Carolina, 47-23. The Gamecocks hung with the Tide through one quarter, trailing 14-10, but the Tide posted at least 10 points in every quarter and the Cocks could not come close to matching that production. ... Mississippi had their hands full with FCS Southeastern Louisiana, but they were able to get the 40-29 win as the 'over' (53) comfortably cashed. The Rebels led just 34-29 after three quarters.

SUN BELT

-- Georgia State moved to 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS with a narrow 48-42 win over FCS Furman, a Top 10 team in the FCS rankings. Their unblemished record will be put to the test again next week at Western Michigan of the MAC. ... Georgia Southern picked up a 26-18 win over FCS Maine, bouncing back from a thrashing at the hands of LSU last week. The Eagles are 0-2 ATS so far, though. ... Arkansas State were very rude guests at UNLV, winning 43-17 to bounce back from a loss to SMU last week. The Red Wolves offense is clicking, averaging 36.5 PPG while allowed 27.0 PPG. Next up is a trip to Georgia. Ouch. ... Coastal Carolina dumped FCS Norfolk State by a 46-7 score, moving to 2-1 SU/ATS. The defense has allowed just 7.0 PPG in the past two games, both covers.

Bad Beats

-- In that Miami (Ohio)-Cincinnati game, bettors holding over tickets probably thought they were on easy street after a 24-point third quarter gave the game 48 total points on the board through 45 minutes. That's how the game ended after a scoreless final 15.

-- The same situation happened in another game featuring a MAC club. Western Michigan led Georgia State 57-10 after three quarters with a total of 69.5 on the board. After a scoreless fourth quarter, over bettors were left shaking their heads.

-- Alabama was hammering South Carolina by a 47-16 count with a 1-yard touchdown run from RB Mac Jones with 2:04 to go. However, the Gamecocks kept playing to the end, scoring a touchdown with :11 left on a QB Ryan Hilinski touchdown pass, crushing those who laid the 26 1/2. To be fair, the Tide were covering for a total of just 1:53. South Carolina's drive was aided by a targeting call, too, which plenty in the Twitterverse were unhappy about.

-- In the Texas-Rice game, the Longhorns were favored by 32 with a total of 57. With 7:50 remaining in the game, Texas took a 38-6 lead. The Longhorns kicked a field goal with 3:29 to take a 41-6 lead. With 1:07 to go, Rice appeared to secure the backdoor cover, 41-13. However, the Longhorns ripped off a 98-yard kickoff return for touchdown to not only cover, 48-13, but flip the total from under to over. Ouch.

-- Clemson was leading 34-6 in the final minute at Syracuse. They emptied the bench and a true freshman took it to the house to flip a push at most shops into a cover for the Tigers. You'll definitely see this one on SVP.

-- Moneyline bettors were feeling it in Lexington, as Kentucky, a 10-point 'dog, led 21-10 after three quarters with Florida down to a backup QB after losing Feleipe Franks to a leg injury. Backup Kyle Trask helped the Gators to a go-ahead touchdown with 4:11 to go, making it 22-21. Kentucky misfired on a field goal, and Josh Hammond rubbed salt in the wound with a 78-yard touchdown run to make it 29-21. The TD run with :33 left flipped the under to an over result.

-- Under (63) bettors were feeling good with Texas A&M leading FCS Lamar 55-3 with under two to go. However, the Aggies ripped off a 13-yard touchdown with 1:51 to go, flipping the total to an over result, 62-3.

[Udog]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 3
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the third big weekend of the college football season. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Wake Forest (-3) 24, North Carolina 18: The Demon Deacons led 21-0 just a few minutes into the second quarter as little went right for the Tar Heels. North Carolina did get a 4th-and-1 stop inside the 10-yard-line to keep the margin at 21 into halftime however. Defense carried the third quarter as there were no points added until North Carolina hit a 49-yard field goal with 41 seconds remaining. After comeback wins in the first two games the Tar Heels made a great run at it again, getting to 21-10 and then 21-18 with about six minutes remaining after going 80 yards in five plays and hitting the two-point conversion. Wake Forest was able to pick up several first downs to exhaust North Carolina’s timeouts but the Deacons kept the game in play by settling for a field goal with a minute to go. North Carolina moved 33 yards before time ran out with officials later admitting one second should have been given to the Heels for a final play after picking up a late first down and getting out of bounds. It would have been a Hail Mary from there but the Tar Heels weren’t given a shot at a miracle finish as Wake Forest held on.

Washington State (-8) 31, Houston 24: Houston kept the prolific Washington State offense in check in the first half with a 14-7 lead at the break as those playing the mid-70s ‘over’ found trouble early with a scoreless first quarter. Washington State scored two touchdowns in the third quarter to get back in front and held Houston to a field goal early in the fourth quarter after a penalty handed off good field position. That four-point edge allowed Washington State to get past the favorite number with the following touchdown drive, leading 28-17 with fewer than seven minutes remaining. Washington State backers got a big break as Houston fumbled on its next offensive play but Washington State only got three points despite reaching 1st-and-goal from the 3-yard-line. A roughing the passer penalty got Houston’s final drive off to a promising start and with just over two minutes remaining a touchdown run from D’Eriq King put Houston within seven, where the final held for the narrow underdog cover.

Kansas State (+7) 31, Mississippi State 24: Kansas State was in control in the first quarter but a costly personal foul penalty allowed Mississippi State to extend a late drive and get to halftime down 17-14 instead of 17-7. The Bulldogs controlled the third quarter and took the lead with a touchdown, sitting even with the closing spread after an early fourth quarter field goal made it 24-17. The kickoff was returned 100 yards by Malik Knowles for a tying score for the Wildcats to shift the momentum back. The defenses held from there until a marginal punt put Kansas State in favorable field position and the Wildcats hit a pair of big passes on the way to the end zone for a seven-point advantage with about five minutes to go. Mississippi State would reach inside the Kansas State 30 on the next drive but went backwards and on 4th-and-16 wound up just a yard short.

Air Force (+3) 30, Colorado 23: The first meeting between these nearby schools featured some big swings as Colorado jumped out to a 10-0 lead and then trailed 20-10 by halftime. Neither team scored in the third quarter and Air Forced extended its lead with a field goal in the fourth while posting a big rushing edge as expected. Colorado would answer about four minutes later but the PAT was blocked as Air Force maintained a seven-point edge. Air Force had a pair of penalties on its next drive and had to punt quickly as Colorado had the ball back with a chance to tie. It took 13 plays but the Buffaloes were able get a touchdown in the final minute and the PAT was good to force overtime. Colorado didn’t keep the momentum long as in overtime Kadin Remsberg went 25 yards for the score on 1st down and Air Force then stopped the Buffaloes for the upset win.

Alabama (-27) 47, South Carolina 23: The box score reveals plenty of concerns for Alabama and South Carolina answered the early punches trailing only 14-10 after the first quarter. Alabama missed a field goal late in the second quarter after being handed good field position as the lead was just 24-10. South Carolina’s chance to truly get back in the game came up empty as in the final seconds before the break the Gamecocks couldn’t get into the end zone after reaching the 1-yard-line, eventually failing going for it on 4th-and-3. Alabama would pull away in the third quarter with a 21-point advantage, one touchdown short of covering the heavy road favorite spread. South Carolina would add a field goal in the fourth but Alabama quickly answered to lead by 24. A promising South Carolina drive ended in a Ryan Hilinski interception and despite limited rushing success the entire game, the Tide eventually worked its way into the end zone, converting on 4th-and-1. That appeared to be the spread-saving score for flocks of Tide backers but Will Muschamp and the Gamecocks had the last laugh, converting a 4th down with 15 seconds to go and hitting the end zone on the next play to narrowly take the underdog cover back.

Army (-14½) 31, Texas San Antonio 13: Army had a 17-7 lead through three quarters but extended the advantage to 24-7 early in the fourth. Following a nice kickoff return, the Roadrunners would add six but not the conversion to climb within the spread down 11. Army intended to run out the clock but they ran out of field and UTSA opted to use its timeouts. Army eventually rushed in from three yards out on 1st down with just over a minute remaining to get past the favorite spread despite being close to the range for taking a knee. UTSA was still a threat to steal the cover back late in the game reaching the Army 21 before an interception.

BYU (+5) 30, USC 27: These teams were knotted at 17-17 at halftime before the scoring went blank in the third quarter. BYU had a fumble and then failed to add points after a long drive trying to go for it on 4th-and-3 inside the 10. A 92-play USC touchdown drive followed to put the Trojans in front but BYU got back within the number with a field goal with about eight minutes remaining. BYU held the USC offense to a 3-and-out and the Cougars answered quickly with a three-play touchdown drive to take the lead. An 11-play USC drive followed but it stalled in deep field goal range. Chase McGrath would hit from 52 to tie the game with just under two minutes remaining. In overtime USC picked up a sack and forced BYU to kick a field goal but USC freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis was intercepted to end the game. The overtime points also were enough to push the total ‘over’ for many as BYU ‘under’ backers were burned for a second straight week by the extra-session, though this week’s total did climb to close at 57½ at many outlets for mixed possible results.

Oklahoma State (-12½) 40, Tulsa 21: Tulsa played a great first half to lead 21-20 in a huge home game for the program. That score held in the first 10 minutes of the third quarter before Oklahoma State put two quick touchdowns together, the second coming on a 90-yard pass play as the Cowboys suddenly led by 12. Oklahoma State went for two and came up empty in a critical spread result play heading into the fourth quarter. Tulsa was stopped on downs twice in the fourth quarter including inside the Oklahoma State 10-yard-line. The Cowboys hadn’t been past the favorite spread in the entire game but on 4th-and-1 with just over two minutes remaining Chuba Hubbard rushed for 33 yards to put the Cowboys up 19.

Arkansas (-9½) 55, Colorado State 34: After losing to Colorado State last season, Arkansas was again caught in a tough battle with the Rams, this season at home. Arkansas led 27-24 at halftime and the game was tied 34-34 through three quarters. Big plays followed for Arkansas with a 62-yard pass play for a second touchdown in the fourth quarter that put Arkansas past the favorite spread and a fumble return touchdown led to a lopsided final margin that the Razorbacks didn’t necessarily deserve.

Louisville (-10½) 38, Western Kentucky 21: Louisville quarterback Jawon Pass was a late scratch for this game but Louisville took a commanding 31-7 lead at halftime, helped by a defensive score just before the break. Both teams scored in the third as the 24-point edge held but Western Kentucky found the end zone early in the fourth to sit down 17 and one score away from the underdog cover. The Hilltoppers recovered the onside kick but failed going for it on 4th-and-15 just past midfield. Louisville helped the cause for the Hilltoppers by also going for it on 4th down near midfield instead of punting as Western Kentucky got the ball back in great field position. On the next drive the Hilltoppers reached the Louisville 6-yard-line but couldn’t get in and they also failed near midfield again on a late drive as Louisville held on for the favorite cover in Nashville.

Iowa (-1½) 18, Iowa State 17: This anticipated rivalry game had a nearly three-hour delay early in the game with lightning before the contest lived up to its billing with an exciting finish. Iowa State took a 14-6 lead on just two plays out of halftime after a fumble led to Iowa getting three points just before the break. Iowa added three more in the third quarter and then struck early in the fourth quarter with a seven-play touchdown drive to take the lead. Up one Iowa would miss on a critical two-point conversion try on a spread that was steady at -1½ with brief wavering up to -2 at times. Iowa State responded with a long drive but also settled for just a short field goal to lead by two halfway through the fourth quarter. Iowa again would lean on kicker Keith Duncan who a few minutes later struck from 39 to put the Hawkeyes back in front by one. Iowa State’s final drive was not without drama as Iowa declined an offensive penalty on 3rd-and-13 to force 4th down just outside of field goal range. On the first attempt of that play Iowa was called for clear pass interference but a second unseen flag whistled Iowa State for holding to offset the huge call that would have given the Cyclones a new set of downs. Iowa State was unable to convert the re-do but managed to force Iowa to a punt with the Hawkeyes surprisingly opting to pass on third down and getting out of bounds to keep well over a minute on the clock. On the punt disaster struck with a Cyclones blocker running into the returner with a slight push from an Iowa player on a short kick, ultimately contacting the ball and allowing Iowa to re-gain possession, where they took a knee to seal the narrow win but left the Cyclones with the cover.

Florida (-8½) 29, Kentucky 21: Kentucky snapped a long losing streak in this series last season but they didn’t seem ready to give the series right back to the favored Gators. Sawyer Smith led the Wildcats in his first start to a 14-7 halftime lead with the Gators having two turnovers and a missed field goal in the first half. Florida added a field goal in the third quarter after a long Kentucky drive ended in an interception but the Wildcats put the margin back to two scores quickly with a touchdown. Both teams were stopped on downs on the following possessions and with Kyle Trask replacing an injured Feleipe Franks the Gators had a quick touchdown drive in six plays to climb within five, missing on the two-point conversion. Later in the fourth Smith was intercepted near midfield but an unsportsmanlike penalty after the play pushed Florida into lesser field position. Florida was aided by two 15-yard penalties and managed to score in just four plays, taking a 22-21 lead after again failing going for the two-point conversion. The Wildcats were in position to answer but were seemingly more concerned with burning clock than getting the lead back and they wound up burned as Chance Poore narrowly missed a 35-yard kick for the lead. Looking for a first down to end the game Josh Hammond broke free and raced 76 yards for a touchdown in the final seconds and the extra-point put Florida up by eight to match the common spread on the game ahead of the weekend, though those that jumped on the Gators on Saturday mostly fell just short.

Washington (-22) 52, Hawai’i 20: Hopes for three Pac-12 wins for the Warriors went out the window quickly as Washington raced out to a 38-0 lead before Hawai’i managed a touchdown right before halftime. The Warriors didn’t fold in the second half however netting two touchdowns to climb within 18 and in position to cover the hefty underdog number. Washington would get back in front of the number early in the fourth and then added another score after an interception to seal the win and cover in a bounce back from last week’s loss to Cal.

San Diego State (-17) 31, New Mexico State 10: The Aggies made a late play to cover with 10 points in a five-minute span late in the third quarter after falling behind 24-0. San Diego State scored to get back past the number early in the fourth quarter and on the responding drive New Mexico State couldn’t convert after reaching the Aztecs 17-yard-line. New Mexico State also reached San Diego State territory late in the fourth but on 1st down a fumble handed the ball back to San Diego State.

Clemson (-27½) 41, Syracuse 6: Clemson led just 17-6 at halftime and was short of the favorite spread with a 27-6 edge through three quarters. Trevor Lawrence turned in a fourth-quarter touchdown drive as the Tigers led by 28 to slip by the spread and a late Syracuse threat was turned away in Clemson territory. For good measure Chez Mellusi broke a 57-yard rush in the final minute to pad the final score for the top ranked Tigers.

Virginia (-7) 31, Florida State 24: The Cavaliers were a -7½-point favorite much of the week but that didn’t seem relevant as Florida State led most of this game, up by seven through three quarter and well into the fourth quarter after answering an early fourth quarter tying score from Virginia. The Cavaliers looked set to tie the game with about six minutes to go with an efficient Bryce Perkins drive finding the end zone but a missed PAT left the Seminoles in front by one. The Virginia defense delivered the 3-and-out however and it took just five plays with the help of a penalty for Virginia to find the end zone again. Down five Perkins converted the two-point try and the Cavaliers led by seven to hit the number for some. James Blackman had a chance to deliver the tying score with a personal foul converting a late 4th down incompletion while pass interference added more yards for the Seminoles who received four 15-yard penalties on the drive. Florida State reached the Virginia 4-yard-line scrambling without timeouts and ran a final play that left Cam Akers just short of the end zone.