NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thur., Sep. 5 - Mon., Sep. 9)

[Udog]

NFL Week 1 odds and line moves: Bettors on Steelers, but Patriots parlays stacking up
Patrick Everson

Tom Brady begins pursuit of his seventh Super Bowl ring when New England hosts Pittsburgh on Sunday night. The Patriots opened -6, dipped to -4.5, then went to -5 and are on lots of parlay tickets.

The first Sunday of the NFL season has arrived, and with it 13 games, including a prime-time AFC showdown. We check in on the action and odds movement for that contest and three others, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Vegas Strip.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots – Open: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -4.5; Move: -5

New England opens defense of its Super Bowl title under the Sunday night lights, in an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff. The Patriots won the last five games of the 2018-19 season (4-1 ATS), including a 3-0 SU and ATS run through the playoffs. In the Super Bowl, the Pats topped the Los Angeles Rams 13-3 as 2-point favorites to finish 14-5 SU (12-7 ATS).

Star tight end Rob Gronkowski retired after that victory. But on Saturday, in what’s become a never-ending saga, mercurial wideout Antonio Brown was cut by Oakland, then signed by New England. However, Brown can’t play in the season opener.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh – which traded Brown to the Raiders – missed the postseason last year as running back Le’Veon Bell sat out all season, and Bell then moved on to the New York Jets. The Steelers went 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six games, finishing at 9-7 SU (8-7-1 ATS).

“There’s actually almost twice as much pointspread money on the Steelers, but ticket count is almost 4/1 on the Patriots,” Shelton said. “Right now, we need New England small. But it’s the late game.”

And it’s the Patriots. Shelton expects plenty of parlays to include New England, and if those parlays survive the day – if the favorites do well – there could be a load of Patriots liability by Sunday night. In that case, MGM books could ultimately be rooting for Pittsburgh.

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers – Open: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: OFF; Move: -7.5; Move: -7; Move: -6.5

Andrew Luck’s abrupt retirement two weeks ago threw a monkey wrench into Indianapolis’ high expectations this season. The Colts earned a wild-card bid last year and topped Houston on the road in that round, then fell to Kansas City 31-13 as 4-point road underdogs to finish 11-7 SU (9-8-1 ATS).

Jacoby Brissett, who played the entire 2017 season while Luck recovered from a shoulder injury, is once again Indy’s starter.

San Diego also reached the divisional round of the playoffs last year, after tying with Kansas City atop the AFC West, but settling for the wild card on a tiebreaker. The Chargers won at Baltimore, then fell to eventual champ New England 41-28 catching 3.5 points on the road to finish 13-5 SU (10-8 ATS).

“This line has been all over the place,” Shelton said, primarily alluding to the big shift to Chargers -7.5 after the Luck news. “We got $30,000 on the Colts +7, but there’s still more money on the Chargers. We’re still gonna need the Colts.”

Kickoff is at 4:05 p.m. ET.

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +3.5; Move: +4; Move: +3.5

Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City had a solid 2018-19 campaign, coming up just one game short of the Super Bowl while going 13-5 SU (10-7-1 ATS). The Chiefs nabbed the AFC’s No. 1 seed, giving them home field against the Patriots in the conference title game, where they lost 37-31 in overtime laying 3 points.

Jacksonville is done with the Blake Bortles experiment, after luring Nick Foles away from the Eagles in the offseason. The Jaguars went just 5-11 SU last year and weren’t much better for bettors, at 5-9-2 ATS. After a 3-1 SU and ATS start, the Jags went 2-10 SU the rest of the way (2-8-2 ATS).

“This is the most lopsided ticket count of the day. Nine out of 10 straight-bet tickets are on the Chiefs, and that’s probably all public money,” Shelton said of this 1 p.m. ET matchup. “Sharps are on the Jaguars, and we need Jacksonville too.”

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers – Open: +3; Move: +2.5

Los Angeles raced all the way to the Super Bowl last season, benefiting greatly from the now-infamous noncall of pass interference that led to an overtime victory at New Orleans in the NFC title game. Two weeks later, though, that luck ran out when the Rams mustered only a field goal in a 13-3 loss to New England as 2-point pups. L.A. finished 15-4 SU (9-9-1 ATS).

Carolina enters this 1 p.m. ET clash after a 7-9 SU and ATS campaign. The Panthers were 6-2 SU through eight games, then lost seven in a row (1-6 ATS) to blow any shot at the playoffs. Quarterback Cam Newton sat the final two games to rest an ailing shoulder, then had offseason surgery.

Newton also suffered a sprained foot in preseason Week 3 against New England, but he’s expected to be ready today.

“Another game where all the public is on one side. They’re loving the Rams,” Shelton said. “Eighty-five percent of tickets are on Los Angeles. The money is a little closer. Sharps are on the Panthers.”

[Udog]

SNF - Steelers at Patriots
Matt Blunt

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Betting Odds: New England -5.5, Total 49

Last Five Head-to-Head Meetings:

Dec. 16, 2018 - Pittsburgh 17 vs. New England 10 (Steelers +2.5, Under 55.5)
Dec. 17, 2017 - New England 27 at Pittsburgh 24 (Patriots -2.5, Under 52.5)
Jan. 22, 2017 - New England 36 vs. Pittsburgh 17 (Patriots -6, Over 49.5)
Oct. 23, 2016 - New England 27 at Pittsburgh 16 (Patriots - 7, Under 49)
Sept. 10, 2015 - New England 28 vs. Pittsburgh 21 (Patriots -7, Under 51)

There might be some big names gone from what's become an annual game between the Steelers and Patriots on Sunday night, but that doesn't mean the first SNF game of the season won't be a good one. There won't be LeVeon Bell, Antonio Brown, or Rob Gronkowski involved on the field in this contest – the 5th straight year these two have met in the regular season – as it's a year of reloading and redefining their identity for both New England and Pittsburgh.

There is still plenty of talent on both sidelines, and in another year where both have their sights set on division titles and more accolades from there, owning the head-to-head tiebreaker could prove to be important by the time Santa is snooping around our chimneys. But we are a long ways away from that entering the conversation, as now it's all about whether or not the Patriots can win this game by about a TD.

With this year being the 100th anniversary of the NFL, the usual spot on TNF to open up a new campaign for the defending champs was pushed back to give the longest rivalry (Green Bay/Chicago) in the league the spotlight on opening night. And while that game wasn't all that aesthetically pleasing, it was expected given that starters on both sides had next to nothing in terms of preseason action and were working out plenty of kinks on TNF. That's something to keep in mind as you go through the entire Week 1 card, but for this SNF game we should get a much better overall brand of football.

Total Talk

History suggests that we will in the sense that over the past eight years, Week 1 SNF games are 6-2 O/U with an average of 48.25 points scored. One of those two 'unders' against the closing number came in the 2016 year when the Patriots opened up in Arizona on SNF with Jimmy Garoppolo under center while Brady served his suspension. There weren't many believers in the Patriots that day, but the 'under' also only came in by the hook, so there is a case to be made that these Week 1 prime time games tend to be a swoon for 'over' bettors.

That hasn't been the case according to the market this week as action has been hot and heavy on the 'under' for weeks now after this game originally opened up at 51.5. Obviously missing all those big name playmakers as “known” entities plays a part in that, but both franchises are likely looking for more of a defensive identity as it is.

Betting percentages currently show a strong 80+% of bets on this 'under' so far, and that historical average of 48.25 points for Week 1 SNF games would still cash an 'under' ticket at the current number. However, if you break down that set of eight games that have opened up the SNF season in the past to just the non-division matchups – remember, with the defending champs typically getting the TNF showcase, SNF was reserved for divisional rivalries, this year that's flipped – the O/U mark is 3-1 O/U with that lone being the Garoppolo start vs Arizona that lost by the hook. The Average points scored there clocks in at exactly 50 points per game, which puts this current line of 49 right in the cross hairs of history.

Side Spiel

Regarding the side, the spread has seen about a 55/45 split in favor of New England, as the number keeps bouncing around between -5.5 and -6. That type of two-way action is what oddsmakers prefer to see, and until we get to see what these revamped identities for both teams start to look like, it's hard to confidently side with either group in this spot.

Bettors on the Steelers side of things are looking at a possible “addition by subtraction” scenario this year with the distractions of Bell and Brown being gone, as the less off-field stuff that a football team has to answer to each week is never a bad thing. The Steelers seemed to survive on the field without Bell last year as they remain high on Conner and the rest of their RB core, but the production lost from Brown's departure will have to be made up somewhere, and that's a lot to put on the shoulders of young guys like JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington who find themselves in prominent roles this year.

From a Patriots backer perspective, relying on the known entity of the Brady/Belichick duo is a big part of why someone would lay these points, even with New England being a slow starter both SU and ATS traditionally these past few years. Brady's another year older at 42 years old, and with his security blanket in Gronk now retired, things will look a bit different. But it's not like Brady hasn't played well (or often) when the oft-injured Gronk wasn't on the field, and that could easily be the case for New England this season too.

The Patriots side also has the backing of history in terms of what defending champions have done the following year out of the gate, but Pittsburgh is a quality foe where six points does have the look of a number that could potentially be too high.

Final Feelings

Cases for and against each side are rather easy to make, and the ones for each side tend to lack conviction, so the spread is one that's probably best to pass on for the week. Openers of -5.5 tend to bring some indecision from an oddsmaking perspective as well in that that spread resides in no man's land and is placed with the intention of moving. The fact that this line has essentially stayed in that range for months suggests that there is plenty of indecision from an overall betting perspective too.

The total is one where I believe the better betting option lies, and while it is hard to ignore the respective move down, the 'over' between these two teams is where I'm going.

Both QB's are vets that have seen it all in this league, and with months of prep time already completed, the questions that bettors may have about new faces in prominent roles on both sides, is probably just flat out confidence from Brady and Roethlisberger's perspective. Getting to 50 points isn't a huge ask for these two teams, and given the initial negative feedback from TNF about it being a sloppy, non-entertaining game, I'm sure the NFL wouldn't mind to have it's next prime time showcase of the year turn into a back-and-forth shootout.

As long as the total stays below 50, 'over' should be the way to go.

Best Bet: Over 49 points

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 1
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 1 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-4-1
Against the Spread 6-7-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-7-1
Against the Spread 3-10-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-6

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-4-1
Against the Spread 6-7-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-7-1
Against the Spread 3-10-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-6

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Titans (+5.5, ML +205) at Browns, 43-13
Bills (+3, ML +145) at Jets, 17-16
Packers (+3, ML +150) at Bears, 10-3

The largest favorite to cover
Cowboys (-7) vs. Giants, 35-17
Ravens (-7) at Dolphins, 59-10
Patriots (-6) vs. Steelers, 33-3
Vikings (-4) vs. Falcons, 28-12

Don't Believe the Hype

-- The Tennessee Titans (+5.5, ML +205) routed the Cleveland Browns, who entered the 2019 season with tremendous hype and expectations. About two hours into the season, that same ol' feeling was setting in on the shores of Lake Erie in what has been referred to as the 'Factory of Sadness'. It was a sad day for bettors, too, as the Browns had plenty of side bettors driving the line from 4 1/2 to 5 1/2 at one point. As Titans TE Delanie Walker said, borrowing a line from former NFL coach Dennis Green, "They are who we thought they were." The Browns will play on Monday Night Football on the road in Week 2 against the New York Jets, and one of those teams will leave the field next week with an 0-2 SU hole to start the season.

Nicked Up

-- The Jacksonville Jaguars landed big-ticket free agent QB Nick Foles during the offseason, but he was forced out early against the Kansas City Chiefs due to a broken collarbone, and he will be out indefinitely. So now the starting quarterback, perhaps just temporarily, will fall to rookie Gardner Minshew, who was a graduate transfer sensation for Mike Leach at Washington State last season. You can be sure some will be beating that Colin Kaepernick drum, too. They need something, as a season of promise has already changed in the course of three hours, after getting paddled by the Chiefs.

South Florida Fade

-- Back in the day, Dan Marino was lighting it up for the Miami Dolphins, while the Miami Hurricanes were running college football. These days, the Hurricanes are 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS and likely already eliminated from the College Football Playoff chase, while the Dolphins kicked off their season with a 59-10 ass beating from the Baltimore Ravens. Instead of calling their venue 'Hard Rock Stadium', it should be called 'Hard Pass'. If you're a sports fan in South Florida looking to stretch your dollar, you should likely be able to cheap seats very soon. Heck, you can even toss in the Florida Atlantic Owls and Florida International Golden Panthers, two more South Florida teams who are 0-2 SU.

The good news for bettors, at least as far as the Dolphins are concerned, is that they welcome the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots to Hard Pass...err, Hard Rock Stadium in Week 2. After the Pats spanked the Pittsburgh Steelers by a 33-3 count on Sunday Night Football, will we be looking at a potential 20-point favorite on the road by the time the game closes next week? The Patriots opened as 'just' a 14 1/2-point favorite after the Week 1 games on Sunday wrapped up.

Total Recall

-- The game with the highest total on the board Sunday was the San Francisco 49ers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51) battle at Raymond James Stadium. With just 13 points on the board at halftime, 'under' bettors were feeling might confident. This game also featured four touchdowns called back due to penalty, which is certainly helpful.

Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston did his best to assist 'over' bettors, tossing not one, but two pick-sixes in this one. That was quite the change for the Niners, who recorded a total of two interceptions during the entire 2018 season. They picked off Winston three times total, including late in the game to make it 31-17, immediately giving the Bucs the ball back with just over two minutes to go. If you were holding an 'under' ticket, you got an eerie feeling that the Bucs were gonna score in garbage time and ruin a good things, as under bettors were on the right side all day. Luckily, the 49ers defense stepped up and kept disaster from happening.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Ravens-Dolphins (40.5) game. The Ravens scored 42 points themselves in the first half to send 'over' bettors into the black. The second-lowest total on the board was the Buffalo Bills-New York Jets (41.5) battle. The teams combined for a total of six points in the first half, too deep of a hole for 'over' bettors to overcome. There was a flurry of scoring in the seconf half -- 27 total points to be exact -- but the damage was already done early, including a scoreless second.

-- The 'under' is 2-0 in two primetime games so far during the 2019 regular season schedule, with the Monday Night Football doubleheader with the Houston Texans-New Orleans Saints (53.5) and Denver Broncos-Oakland Raiders (43) still pending. The 'over' is 0-2 (0.0%), during the early 2019 primetime schedule with two games still pending.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Chargers WR Mike Williams (knee) checked out of the Week 1 game against the Colts due to a knee ailment.

-- Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (shoulder) was hospitalized after suffering a collarbone injury in Jacksonville. It has been determined that he will not require surgery, but Hill will miss a "few weeks," according to NFL.com.

-- Colts WR Devin Funchess (collarbone) will have a second opinion, but initial tests suggest a broken collarbone for the new Colts receiver.

-- 49ers RB Tevin Coleman (ankle) suffered an ankle injury in Tampa Bay, leaving head coach Kyle Shanahan "concerned".

-- Jaguars QB Nick Foles (collarbone/clavicle) suffered a fractured clavicle and will undergo surgery on Monday. It's uncertain if he is done for the entire season, but he'll miss significant time.

-- Steelers WR Juju Smith-Schuster (toe) suffered a toe injury late in the fourth quarter of Sunday's blowout loss in New England, and he is expected to undergo X-rays.

Looking Ahead

-- The Panthers will host the Buccaneers on Thursday night at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, a game featuring a pair of 0-1 SU/ATS teams. In this series the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings, with the road team 7-3 ATS in the past 10 in the series. The 'under' is also 5-1 in the past six battles, and 13-6 in the previous 19 encounters in the Queen City. Interestingly, something's gotta give with these two teams, as Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in their past five appearances on Thursday Night Football, while Carolina is 0-4 ATS in their past four on TNF.

-- The Cowboys and Redskins will meet in the nation's capital, and both clubs are playing their second divisional game in as many weeks. Dallas is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the previous five inside the NFC East. While Washington blew a 17-point lead in Philadelphia in Week 1, they were able to cover to improve to 1-4 ATS in the past five divisional games. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings, with the Cowboys 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to D.C. The underdog is 31-11 ATS in the past 42 in this series, too. If you're a total bettor, remember that the 'over' has cashed in six of the past seven meetings.

-- The Vikings and Packers lock horns in an NFC North early-season showdown. Someone is going to leave the field with a 2-0 SU record, too. The home team has cashed in five of the past six meetings in this series, with the Vikings just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 forays into Lambeau Field. The 'under' has also connected in seven of the past nine meetings. For Minnesota, the under is 22-7 in the past 29 inside the NFC North, while the under is a perfect 4-0 in the past four divisional games for Green Bay, including their 10-3 win in Week 1 at Chicago.

-- The Jaguars travel to Houston to meet the Texans. Jacksonville is just 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven on the road, and 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven inside the AFC South, too. Will the rookie Minshew turn their fortunes around? The Jaguars are 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, the road team is 11-4-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings and the underdog is 9-4 ATS in the previous 13 battles. The trends point to Jacksonville, but logic seems to point at Houston.

-- The Patriots travel to the heat and humidity of South Florida to take on the Dolphins. That might be the most difficult obstacle for New England. The Patriots are 19-8 ATS in their past 27 road games, and they're 6-2 ATS in the past eight inside the division. The Dolphins have posted a 6-1 ATS mark in the past seven at home against the Patriots, but that was with much more talented rosters. The home team is also 14-3 ATS in the past 17 in this series.

-- The Chiefs land in Oaktown to battle the Raiders. Kansas City is 13-4 ATS in the past 17 against AFC West foes, and they're 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 on the road, including their Week 1 whitewashing of the Jags. The Raiders are just 5-11 ATS in their past 16 home battles against the Chiefs, and the 'over' is 5-1 in the past six in the Black Hole.

[Udog]

MNF Doubleheader Essentials
Tony Mejia

Texans at Saints (-6.5/52), 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN: .

The Saints take the field in a game that counts for the first time since being robbed in January’s NFC Championship game. Outside of losing running back Mark Ingram to the Ravens, a few veteran linemen retiring and a couple of defenders leaving via free agency, the team that should’ve been out there against the Patriots in Super Bowl XLIII returns intact. 40-year-old Drew Brees is aging like the finest of wines and returns to engineer an offense that scored 30 or more points in 10 of 16 games last season.

A great first test awaits with the Texans in town, especially since there are a lot of variables in play since Houston’s most recent preseason game. The Texans upgraded their left tackle situation by adding Laremy Tunsil, unquestionably the Dolphins’ best player. They’ve addressed the unfortunate loss of Lamar Miller to a torn ACL and MCL in the “dress rehearsal” game by dealing for Duke Johnson and also added WR Kenny Stills to give Deshaun Watson four excellent threats at wideout. The addition of Tunsil to protect him is the game-changer, which sets the stage for the Texans to take the next step in emerging as Super Bowl contender.

Although they’ve won three AFC South titles in four seasons, a glance at NFL betting futures tells you how lightly regarded Houston is in terms of being a legitimate threat to win a championship. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook hung 50-to-1 odds on the Texans to win a Super Bowl and have them at 25-to-1 to win the conference, which ranks seventh among AFC teams. Why their number would be placed behind the Jaguars and Ravens is debatable, but a case can be made that they’re among the most undervalued quality teams in the NFL. You can still get in on a projected win total of 8.5 that looks awfully appealing since Jacksonville has lost QB Nick Foles for a few weeks due to a broken clavicle and Andrew Luck’s retirement makes the Colts more vulnerable. Tennessee looked fantastic in destroying the Browns, but I’d still prefer Houston to win the division (7/4).

In visiting New Orleans, the Texans will test themselves against a team that is going to be favored in almost every game so long as Brees and top playmakers Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas stay healthy. Westgate set the Saints’ projected win total at 10.5 after last season’s 13-3 run and made them the overwhelming favorite to capture the NFC South (5/7). They’re listed as the NFC co-favorite at 5/1 alongside the Bears and Eagles and at 12/1, lagging only behind the Chiefs (5/1) and Patriots (6/1) in terms of Super Bowl odds.

Even if they’re unable to post an upset, simply testing themselves before the Jags come to town on Sunday with rookie backup Gardner Minshew at the controls in place of the injured Foles should prove beneficial for the Texans, who can look at this debut as a freeroll of sorts given how the schedule lays out. Because new pieces like Tunsil, Carols Hyde, Johnson and Stills all have to gel quickly, Houston comes into this one a substantial underdog, opening at plus-7 with some action dropping them to a 6.5-point ‘dog as of Sunday night. A moneyline wager would play out +240, which was the same figure the division-rival Colts were getting out in Carson in their eventual overtime loss to the Chargers. Watson played all 16 games in 2018 in coming back from an ACL tear and has mostly impressed thus far throughout his career. He’s twice lost duels with Tom Brady but has put together a number of record-setting performances and presided over Houston’s nine-game winning streak last season. He passed for at least 375 yards in three straight weeks and struck the right balance of taking off and running an hanging in the pocket despite a porous offensive line that contributed to him being sacked 62 times last season. Brees was only sacked 17 times despite only 16 fewer pass attempts, so think twice about partaking in any J.J. Watt sack props.

If Tunsil gives Watson the assistance he’s expected to provide and can keep the likes of Cam Jordan away from him on Monday, he’s definitely got weapons on the outside who can help Houston keep up with whatever pace the Saints set. DeAndre Hopkins is among the NFL’s top receiver, Keke Coutee can be a game-changer in the slot and Will Fuller and Stills can take advantage when teams are forced to play them one-on-one. The total here opened at 54 and has been bet down to 52. That figure was eclipsed in seven of the Saints’ 16 regular-season games but was surpassed just three times in contests involving the Texans.

Houston was 5-3 (3-3-2 ATS) on the road last season, while the Saints were 7-3 at the Superdome if you lump in their playoff results. New Orleans did fail to cover in any of their last four home games. DT Sheldon Rankins is still working his way back from an Achilles tear and will miss this game for New Orleans, who will also be without DE Mario Edwards (hamstring). LB Craig Robertson is questionable, which is the same designation shared by starting offensive linemen Greg Mancz (ankle) and Tytus Howard (finger), the Texans’ most recent first-round pick. Coutee (ankle) is also uncertain to play.

Brees’ Saints won both of their Monday night games last season, while the Texans won in their lone appearance, blowing out the Titans 34-17 to set a franchise record for consecutive wins. Houston is 2-2 against the Saints, winning the last meeting in 2015. The Texans are 0-2 in New Orleans.

Raiders at Broncos (-2.5/42), 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN:

Week 1 closes with a divisional matchup at Mile High as the Raiders begin their final season before moving to Las Vegas by putting a tumultuous training camp behind them.

Your late-night drinking game involves the serving of your choice whenever Antonio Brown is mentioned. Be careful or you won’t make it to halftime. Brown didn’t make it to the season opener, successfully getting himself waived after clashing with GM Mike Mayock and not doing his part to fit in with the team who envisioned him eclipsing QB Derek Carr as the face of the franchise prior to the team moving in behind Mandalay Bay next season.

Instead, Brown arrived with burnt feet, feuded with the NFL over its new helmet policy and never did get on the field during the preseason. Even his stint on HBO’s Hard Knocks left much to be desired, especially since shooting had wrapped by the time he had his confrontation with Mayock over fines incurred due to his protests. Brown apologized to the team and was expected to play on Monday but then went to social media with a strange video he put together himself and ultimately got his wish to go elsewhere. He signed with the New England Patriots in what is potentially the most impactful pickup we’ve seen over the last eight months.

Jon Gruden and the Raiders were left picking up the pieces and signed rookie Keelan Doss back off Jacksonville’s practice squad after reluctantly parting ways with the training camp standout on cutdown day. Carr’s go-to receiver now figure to be newcomer Tyrell Williams, rookie Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller. Another rookie, Alabama product Josh Jacobs, is likely to get a lot of carries alongside fourth-year backup DeAndre Washington and pass-catching threat Jalen Richard.

Uncertainty over Brown’s availability greatly affected this point spread. Oakland opened as a 2.5-point road favorite, dipped to a pick’em, became a 2.5-point ‘dog when it appeared that Brown would be suspended and then improved to plus-1 when Gruden announced he’d be starting and that his teammates had made him a captain. Since his release, the number returned to 2.5 and a total that opened at 43.5 had settled at 42.

The Raiders are extremely young. Gruden is still setting the foundation and securing personnel he wishes to take with him to Vegas, which means he’s willing to take some lumps. A handful of undrafted free agents made the team. The majority of the group has only been around a handful of years. Carr and free safety Lamarcus Joyner are the leaders, but there’s plenty of room for others to emerge. The defense added hard-hitting linebacker Vontaze Burfict from Cincinnati and will sign up for his aggressiveness to trickle down to the younger guys. First-round pick Jonathan Abram is a thumper with a nasty streak who will be looking to have an impact at strong safety, so the unit that coordinator Paul Guenther is trying to piece together will obviously have an edge to it.

Offensively, Gruden and veteran coordinator Greg Olson will be looking for playmakers to emerge and never accounted for Brown not being around to make life easier for everyone else. Considering the Broncos woke up on Saturday morning expecting to see him, their game plan now has to change on the run. New head coach Vic Fangio and defensive coordinator Ed Donatell have worked together on a couple of teams over the years and will look to help revitalize a unit that struggled under Vance Joseph after years of being considered among the NFL’s best due to the presence of playmakers like Von Miller, Derek Wolfe and CB Chris Harris, Jr.

Although LBs Brandon Marshall and Shane Ray and CBs Bradley Roby and Jamar Taylor signed elsewhere, there’s plenty for Fangio to work with key veterans back and emerging star Bradley Chubb coming off a 12-sack rookie season.

John Elway went out and signed QB Joe Flacco to try and help stabilize the offense with his arm and experience, but first-time NFL offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello is adamant that his attack will be run-based, centering on getting explosive young backs Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman the ball. Offseason tweaks like adding pass-catching back Theo Riddick and athletic tight end Jake Butt have both hit a snag due to unfortunate injuries, so the development of the team’s young backs and receivers like Courtland Sutton, DaeSean Hamilton, Tim Patrick and rookie Juwann Wifnree will dictate how effective Flacco can be early on.

Denver’s projected win total has been set at 7. Oakland’s total was set at 6 even before Brown’s departure, so now that their Super Bowl odds are 100/1, you should know not to tune in for a masterpiece in the nightcap of this MNF doubleheader. The Chiefs and Chargers are the AFC West’s heavyweights and the Broncos (14/1) Raiders (16/1) are longshots to win the division who will likely be vying to stay out of the cellar.

The teams split last season’s meetings, but Oakland has captured 11 of the last 15 against the Broncos. The ‘under’ has prevailed in seven of the last eight matchups, including the last five in succession. Denver inside linebacker Todd Davis (calf) is expected to miss the opener, so Fangio will have to get creative to fill that spot. Oakland lost starting guard Gabe Jackson (MCL) early in preseason and won’t have him back until October at the earliest. Projected fill-in Richie Incognito is suspended for the first two games, so Gruden will have to shore up that spot next to center Rodney Hudson, the league’s highest-paid player at his position.

The Broncos have won their last seven season openers and have started at least 2-0 six straight years. The Raiders were the last team to beat them in a Week 1, winning a 23-20 decision on a Monday night at Mile High in 2011. Gruden lost in his return to the sideline in last year’s season-opener, getting crushed 33-13 in the second half of an MNF twinbill similar to this one. Weather shouldn’t be a concern with light winds and temperatures in the 70s in the forecast.

[Udog]

NFL Week 2 odds are up, and Saints-Rams could be heaviest-bet game on docket
Patrick Everson

Todd Gurley and Los Angeles opened their NFC title defense with a win and cover at Carolina. The Rams opened as 3-point home favorites in Week 2 vs. the Saints, a rematch of the NFC title game.

There’s still a “Monday Night Football” doubleheader to close NFL Week 1, but the Week 2 numbers are up, topped by the line for an NFC Championship Game rematch. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action for four games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

Los Angeles fended off a comeback to open defense of its NFC title with a season-opening victory Sunday. The Rams (1-0 SU and ATS) led by 13 points multiple times, including 23-10 late in the third quarter, then held on for a 30-27 win as 1.5-point road favorites.

New Orleans still has Week 1 work to do, opening the Monday twinbill at home against Houston. But the Saints surely recall the last time they were on the field for a meaningful game, in January’s NFC Championship Game. Drew Brees and Co. were 3-point home favorites to the Rams, got the short end of a now infamous noncall of pass interference and lost 26-23 in overtime.

“NFC Championship Game rematch could be the most heavily bet game of the day,” Murray said of a key clash on the Sunday docket. “There’s no reason to move off -3 here yet. The Rams took care of business. The Saints in action Monday night.”

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3)

Tennessee got it done in Week 1 against a team that arguably received more offseason hype than any other outfit. The Titans (1-0 SU and ATS) gave up an early touchdown at Cleveland, but ended up leading much of the game and ran away in the second half for a 43-13 win as 5.5-point underdogs.

Indianapolis, without the recently retired Andrew Luck at quarterback, perhaps showed it will not be a pushover this season. On Sunday against the Chargers, Jacoby Brissett led the Colts (0-1 SU, 0-0-1 ATS) to a touchdown and 2-point conversion in the final minute to tie the game at 24, but Indy fell short in overtime 30-24 catching 6 points in Los Angeles.

“We opened Titans -3 and moved to Titans -3 (-120) off action we took on that side,” Murray said. “Both teams impressed today, the Titans with a great win in Cleveland, the Colts really hung in there on the road against the Chargers. Indianapolis might have won with a better kicking game.”

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)

Seattle travels across the country for one of next Sunday’s early kickoffs, after barely hanging on as big home chalk in Week 1. The Seahawks (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) went back-and-forth with Cincinnati on Sunday, eking out a 21-20 victory as 9.5-point faves.

Pittsburgh missed the playoffs last season, then opened the 2019-20 campaign against the defending Super Bowl champions. Under the Sunday night lights, the Steelers () wilted in a 33-3 loss at New England getting 5.5 points.

“We opened Steelers -4.5, but it’s off the board, as they are currently getting throttled by the Patriots,” Murray said while Pittsburgh-New England game was in the fourth quarter. “We may see this line come down a little between now and Monday morning, although the Seahawks’ performance today wasn’t anything special either.”

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3)

Green Bay is already off to a good start in the NFC North as it prepares for another big rivalry game. The Packers (1-0 SU and ATS) put the clamps on Chicago in a Week 1 defensive slugfest, posting a 10-3 victory as 3.5-point road ‘dogs.

Minnesota, which reached the NFC title game two seasons ago but missed the postseason last year, stormed out of the gate in Week 1. The Vikings (1-0 SU and ATS) built a 21-0 halftime lead against Atlanta and coasted to a 28-12 victory giving 3.5 points at home Sunday.

“Great win for the Vikings over the Falcons. Only 10 passing attempts from Kirk Cousins,” Murray said. “The Vikings are clearly looking to establish the run. They’ll need to move it on the ground effectively against what appears to be an improved Packers defense.”

The line opened -3 but at even money for the Pack, then briefly ticked to -2.5 (-120) before going back to the opener.