Cnotes 2019-2020 College Football Trends-News-Notes-Best Bets & Opinions !

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Bowl Games Best Bets & Opinions ( All Based On 5 Units )

DATE................W-L-T...........%........UNITS

12/23/2019.......1-1-0........50.00%.....-0.50
12/21/2019...... 4-8-0........33.33%....-24.00
12/20/2019.......1-1-0........50.00%.....-0.50

Totals..............6-10-0........37.50%.....-25.00


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Best Bets

Date......................Ats..................Uni ts...................O/U...................Units..............Total


12/23/2019..........0 - 1..................-5.50.................1 - 0.................+5.00..............-0.50
12/21/2019..........2 - 3..................-6.50.................1 - 4..................-17.00............-23.50
12/20/2019..........1 - 0.................+5.00.................0 - 1..................-5.50..............- 0.50

Totals..................3 - 4...................-7.00..........,......2 - 5..................-17.50.............-24.50

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Tuesday’s 6-pack

Too early over/under win totals for baseball in 2020:

— New York (A) 101.5

— Dodgers 99.5

— Astros 97

— Braves/Nationals 92

— Twins 90.5

— New York (N) 86.5

Quote of the Day:
“I don’t think they should be doing (top 25) polls this year until March. I’m serious, I mean, it’s just an effort in futility at this point.”
Mark Few

Tuesday’s quiz
Who hit the most home runs ever, out of all the players who played for only one team in their career?

Monday’s quiz
Rams have played in four Super Bowls, under four different head coaches; Sean McVay, Mike Martz, Dick Vermeil, Ray Malavasi

Sunday’s quiz
Houston Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson played his college football at Clemson.


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Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

13) Last six years, only teams in the Super Bowl were #1 and #2 seeds, teams that got first-round byes in the playoffs. Getting a bye is really helpful.

Before that though, from 2010-12, Super Bowl winners were #6-4-4 seeds, with Baltimore Ravens the last #4 sed to win a Super Bowl.

12) Social media can be incredibly annoying; our society is so fickle, everyone who loses should be fired, everyone who wins is the greatest ever, at least until their next loss.

Rams didn’t make the playoffs this year; they’re 8-7, a disappointing year. Rats are jumping off the ship left and right, “fans” demanding changes be made before next season.

I can guarantee you this; the Rams will LOOK different next year. How do I know this? They’re getting new uniforms, to coincide with the opening of their new domed stadium.

11) Social media is also funny sometimes; a debate erupted the other day on Twitter about how some people put gas in their car while the motor is still running. Never heard of that before.

Apparently it is a thing in really cold places like Alaska, but supposedly it is dangerous and is not advised. Decent amount of people said they did it, though, and they all lived to tell about it.

10) Toronto Blue Jays gave P Hyun-jin Ryu $80M for four years.

9) Washington 72, Hawai’i 61— Hawai’i went 9-39 on the arc; one kid was 1-17— can you imagine a kid having that bright a green light to shoot, then going 1-17? Washington plays Houston Wednesday night in the finals of the Diamond Head tourney.

8) CBS won’t be televising SEC football anymore; they backed out of the bidding for a new contract. Sounds like ESPN/ABC will carry the SEC now.

7) Are the Dolphins going to bring 37-year old QB Ryan Fitzpatrick next year? Miami split its last eight games after an 0-7 start, screwing up their draft position. Where do they go from here?

Fitzpatrick and Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton both wear wedding rings while they play football. which surprised me.

6) Tennessee point guard Lamonte Turner’s college career is over; he is going to have shoulder surgery, a big blow to the Vols’ hopes of getting back to the NCAA tournament.

5) Milwaukee Bucks have seven wins this year where they never trailed; thats the most by any NBA team before January in the last 20 years.

4) MLB and the umpires came to a 5-year contract agreement; curious to see if the automated strike zone becomes a thing during that time.

3) Seattle Seahawks signed Marshawn Lynch Monday night to help replenish their depleted group of running backs.

2) Packers 23, Vikings 10— Kirk Cousins is now 0-9 on Monday Night Football. Minnesota gained 139 yards, had only 7 first downs- they started three drives in Green Bay territory, and still scored only 10 points.

1) Congrats to the Big Dawg on another winning season picking NFL games on this site; he is 25-18-1 this season, and since 2012, he is 209-166 (55.7%) against the number. Well done!!!!

[StarDust Bum]

Hawaii Bowl Preview
December 20, 2019
By Joe Nelson

Former conference rivals BYU and Hawaii will face off in Honolulu for the Christmas Eve Hawaii Bowl. These teams played a year ago at BYU and the Cougars have had a clear edge in the recent history of this series.

Hawaii is coming off a division championship season however and a closely-lined contest could prove to be one of the more competitive early bowl games.

Hawaii Bowl Betting Preview

BYU Cougars at Hawaii Warriors
Venue: At Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii
Time/TV: Tuesday, December 24, 8:00 p.m. ESPN
Line: BYU -2, Over/Under 64
Last Meeting: 2018 at BYU (-10½) 49, Hawaii 23

Since 1980 these teams have met 24 times with 20 wins for BYU including five straight going back to 2002. BYU won 30-20 in 2017 in the last trip to Honolulu as a slight 3.5-point favorite. The Cougars have scored at least 30 points in seven straight meetings in this series and Kalani Sitake is 2-0 in bowl games including delivering a 49-18 bowl win over Western Michigan last season.

The Independent schedule for BYU was very uneven with power five tests early and a much lighter path late in the year. BYU turned in notable wins over Tennessee, USC, and Boise State, but also took losses to Toledo and South Florida as well. BYU lost its season finale at San Diego State, while also beating Utah State on the road as they played three Mountain West foes.

Known for an offense that scored 470 points this season the Hawaii defense turned in improved results down the stretch, allowing an average of just 20 points per game in the final four contests including the Mountain West Championship loss to Boise State. That game in Boise featured a 31-10 final score but the statistics were pretty even and it was a 3-3 game before things turned sharply on a few big plays in the final two minutes before halftime.

Cole McDonald and Chevan Cordeiro combined for 37 touchdown passes but with 17 interceptions as well as Hawaii will wind up with more than 600 pass attempts by season’s end. Hawaii actually eclipsed 2,000 yards rushing this season on 5.1 yards per carry for a massive leap to provide much better balance compared with last season.

McDonald played the entire MWC Championship game despite ceding significant time to Cordeiro late in the season. McDonald is much bigger in stature and has been the more prolific passer but Cordeiro, the Honolulu-native, had some big moments notably in the win over San Jose State.

Given the heavy-hitters on the early season schedule one would assume that the Cougars played a much tougher schedule but the slates rated similarly as Hawaii went 2-1 vs. Pac-12 teams early in the season beating Arizona and Oregon State and also had to play Boise State twice.

Hawaii has played in this bowl game four times since 2008 going 1-3 S/U and ATS, actually getting the win in the instance where they played as the biggest underdog. Last season Hawaii lost 31-14 to Louisiana Tech at home as a slight home underdog in what was a sloppy Hawaii Bowl with six turnovers. A 7-3 halftime lead turned sharply in the third quarter for the Warriors, who were held to only 226 net yards.

BYU was a road favorite four times this season and lost S/U three times while going 0-4 ATS. Under Sitake BYU is just 4-6 ATS as a road favorite as well. Sitake is 10-12 S/U in road games at BYU while under Nick Rolovich, Hawaii is 6-8 S/U and ATS as a home underdog, though 2-1 S/U and ATS this season with wins over Arizona and San Diego State.

Sophomore Zach Wilson missed several games in the middle of the season but wound up with decent numbers after emerging as the starting quarterback as a freshman last season. One of his worst games came in the season finale at San Diego State with two interceptions and he has only played in two FBS games since his injury in late September. Six different players threw passes for BYU this season and while the numbers might look slightly better for backups Baylor Romney and Jaren Hall, they didn’t face some of the power five teams Wilson faced in September.

BYU doesn’t have a rusher with more than 400 yards as while the rushing attack proved adequate it was a clear committee approach with top rusher Sione Finau lost to a knee injury in November. Hawaii had a stronger per carry rushing average this season and playing two more games than BYU has, the Warriors with a stronger rushing production count for the season but trailed the Cougars on a per-game average.

The victor in the Hawaii Bowl has scored at least 30 points in seven straight seasons and only one of the past seven meetings has been a single-score result. The Mountain West had won three in a row against AAC teams before last season’s win for Louisiana Tech and this game should have a chance to top 30,000 in attendance for a second straight season with some positive enthusiasm for a solid season for the home team.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 2
Bruce Marshall


Tuesday, December 24


Matchup Skinny
Edge

BYU at HAWAII (Hawaii Bowl)...Sitake no covers last 3 or 7 of last 9 in 2019 and Cougs had covered 15 of previous 21. Rolovich 4-4 vs. spread at Aloha TY but was just 6-14-1 vs. line previous three years as host. Bows 1-4 SU and vs. line last five bowls dating to 2007 season.
BYU, based on team trends.




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221BYU -222 HAWAII
HAWAII is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after a loss in the last 3 seasons.




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Tuesday, December 24

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BYU (7 - 5) at HAWAII (9 - 5) - 12/24/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
HAWAII is 90-119 ATS (-40.9 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
HAWAII is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 2-0 straight up against HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Tuesday, December 24


Brigham Young @ Hawaii
Brigham Young
Brigham Young is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hawaii
Brigham Young is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games


Hawaii
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hawaii's last 5 games at home
Hawaii is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games




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Dec 24- Hawai’i Bowl


BYU beat Hawai’i 49-23/30-20 last two years; BYU has a campus in Hawai’i- they’ll have fan support here, too. Cougars were held to 23 or fewer points in their five losses- they’re 7-0 scoring more than 23. Underdogs covered BYU’s last eight games. BYU won five of last six games after a 2-4 start; they won their last two bowls. Favorites covered four of BYU’s last five bowls. Hawai’i is in this bowl for third time in four years, splitting last two; Rainbows won four of last five games after a 5-4 start, losing MW title game to Boise St two weeks ago- they allowed average of 43 ppg in their last five bowls. Hawai’i is 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog, 1-1 TY. Average total in last four Hawai’i Bowls, 60.3.




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Tuesday, December 24


Hawaii @ Brigham Young


Game 221-222
December 24, 2019 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Hawaii
82.079
Brigham Young
80.746
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hawaii
by 1 1/2
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brigham Young
by 2
64
Dunkel Pick:
Hawaii
(+2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

HAW at BYU 08:00 PM

HAW +1.5

O 62.0

[Udog]

Hot & Not Report - Bowls
Matt Blunt

Last week's piece on NFL trends heading into Week 16 didn't bring the best results, and with Week 17 being one that generally resembles a crap shoot for the bulk of the card with motivation and who's suiting up being big question marks throughout the week, it's back to the collegiate game this week.

NFL angles will be back in time for the playoffs early next week, but with a plethora of Bowl games in the more immediate future, here are a couple of 'lighter' angles to keep on your holiday plate for the next 10 days or so.

Who's Hot

ACC teams in Boxing Day Bowls: 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in CFB Playoff era (2014-15)

Historical information like this isn't always the most in-depth approach or even the most relevant knowledge in some cases, but considering Boxing Day (Dec. 26) this year has just two Bowl games on the card and there is an ACC team involved in each, it was worth pointing out. Miami and Pittsburgh are chalk in their respective games this year, and while ACC chalk is just 3-2 ATS in the span outlined in the header, if you do believe they will win the game, laying the points doesn't hurt.

That 7-3 SU and ATS run by ACC teams on Boxing Day is perfectly correlated (ie there were no ATS covers coming in SU defeats), with one exception, so keep that in mind. It does work the other way too in that if you are looking at taking the points with Louisiana Tech or Eastern Michigan later this week, dousing the ML with a partial unit should be considered as well. The University of Miami did account for one of those past SU and ATS losses on Boxing Day – their only appearance in this data – as a 20-14 loss to Washington State (-1.5) back in 2015 is one of the three ACC blemishes on this day in recent years.

That one exception – Virginia Tech winning 55-52 back in 2015 as double-digit (-14) chalk.

But what may be even more interesting for this data set is the fact that not only are the SU wins correlated with ATS wins perfectly, but the same goes for the totals in these games as well.

In the seven SU/ATS wins by ACC programs in Boxing Day Bowls the past few years, the 'over' has gone 6-0-1 O/U, while the three SU/ATS losses by ACC schools has gone a perfect 0-3 O/U to the 'under'. That is quite the history when you think about it, and how you chose to use that information (if at all) for this year's games is up to you. But it does suggest that with Pittsburgh (-11.5) and Miami (-6) both being expected to win their respective games, the 'over' may end up being the place to look that does give you more margin for error.

Yes, the SU and ATS results have nearly always been perfectly correlated in the sense that the point spread hasn't mattered, but the one time it did – Virginia Tech in 2015 – was the only other time prior to this year that an ACC school was laying double-digit chalk. That puts Pittsburgh in the trickier spot this week, at least in terms of the side, which is why I do say that the 'over' (at least in that game) does potentially give you more of a margin for error. Pitt wasn't an 'over' team at all this season (3-9 O/U), but Eastern Michigan was (7-3-2 O/U), and if the Eagles do find a way to make a game of it, chances are it will be a game that should surpass their current total of 49.

Who's Not

Backing Favorites in non-CFB Playoff New Year's Day Bowl games – 1-7 ATS and 2-6 SU the last two seasons

If you are someone who tends to wake up groggy and hungover on New Year's Day, when you take your dog out for a walk to get some fresh air and shake loose some of the cobwebs, make sure you put some underdog betting tickets in your pocket at the same time. That's because underdogs playing on this day have been money the past two years, going 7-1 ATS and 6-2 outright in that span.

When you really step back and think about it, the general theory does make a lot of sense too. All year you hear announcers talk about how important it is for many programs to be playing in a New Year's Day Bowl game, but that's not the reality for all of them. A lot of the time it's this day that houses those teams that finished ranked #5 through #10 in the CFB Playoff rankings, meaning they just missed out on their ultimate goal and there is simply no desire to go out and be at their best in a Bowl game on New Year's Day that's only lost more and more prestige as the years have gone on. That's not even mentioning that the lone ATS loss for underdogs in this spot came by a half-point last year in UCF's 40-32 loss to LSU when the Knights closed at +7.5.

But when the past two seasons has had brand name programs like LSU, Auburn and Michigan all lose outright as chalk in 2017 – Auburn and Michigan laying -9 or more – and the likes of Georgia (-13.5) and Penn State (-4.5) lose outright in 2018, you can see how the lack of motivation for these schools who just missed out on the playoff does come into play. This year we've got a few more candidates that fit that role, as all eight teams in action finished the year ranked in the Top 18 in the country.

The Baylor/Georgia (-6.5) game is really interesting given that both teams basically needed just a win in their Conference Championship game to be playoff bound, and for the entire Bowl season I'm not sure there is another game where you could have neither side wanting to be there like that one.

Wisconsin (-2.5/3) is currently laying about a FG against Oregon in the Rose Bowl, and while neither team likely saw their playoff hopes dashed in the final week of the season, you could make that argument for Wisconsin given they held a halftime lead against #1 Ohio State in the Big 10 Title game and then crumbled after half.

Auburn is laying a TD against Minnesota in a game that could end up being one that bucks this trend, as Auburn was never really a serious playoff contender down the stretch, and Minnesota was, had they not stumbled late in the year.

And then there is the Michigan/Alabama (-7), one that fits taking the points rather well, as long as you believe the Wolverines are able to pick themselves up off the canvas after suffering humiliation yet again in the Ohio State game. That's a role that's buried Michigan before in their Bowl game, but Alabama lost more later in the year in terms of the playoff picture, and having been involved in the CFB playoff every year since its inception, a “regular” Bowl appearance for the Crimson Tide has to be a huge disappointment.

Meanwhile, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is in need of a significant win now more then ever with how his teams have performed against top level competition during his tenure at Michigan, and a lack of excitement/motivation from Alabama could be just what the doctor ordered for Harbaugh's crew. Alabama still has plenty of cache in their name in terms of Harbaugh beating a quality foe, and let's not forget the Tide are still without their starting QB.

That's got to be about as good as it gets situationally for a play on Michigan here, you've just got to hope that the Wolverines are motivated themselves.

[Udog]

Thursday's Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

Independence Bowl (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Louisiana Tech vs. Miami-Florida

-- The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) of Conference USA will tangle with the Miami Hurricanes (6-6 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Atlantic Coast Conference in the Walk-On's Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La.

-- The Bulldogs will be making their 12th bowl appearance in school history, and their fifth-ever appearance in the Independence Bowl. They made their first-ever bowl appearnace against Louisville in 1977, winning 24-14. They lost the next season against East Carolina before returning in 1990 for a tie against Maryland. They also apppeared on Dec. 28, 2008, topping Northern Illinois in a low-scoring game, 17-10. Overall La. Tech holds a 7-3-1 SU record in bowl games, including wins in each of the past five. They topped Hawaii in the Hawai'i Bowl by a 31-14 score in Honolulu last Dec. 22, 2018.

-- The Hurricanes have an extensive bowl history, including five national championships to their credit. However, while they were once one of the most feared football programs in America during the 1980's and 1990's, they have fallen on hard, or really, mediocre, times. Since winning the MPC Computers Bowl over Nevada on New Year's Eve in 2006, they have posted just one win in their previous nine bowl outings. That lone win is a 31-14 victory over West Virginia at the Russell Athletic Bowl, not exactly known as one of the best bowls on the schedule. They haven't faced a Group of Five team in a bowl since that MPC Computers Bowl game, a win. In fact, that was one of just three appearances in school history against a non-Power 5 team. Before 2006, they had a 13-6 win over Holy Cross in the 1946 Orange Bowl, and a 26-0 loss to Bucknell in the 1935 Orange Bowl. So this is unchartered territory.

-- Louisiana Tech is located in Ruston, La., just one hour east of Shreveport off of Interstate 20, so you can expect a pro-Bulldogs crowd. In the state of Louisiana, all in Ruston, the Bulldogs were a perfect 6-0/4-2 ATS. They averaged 45.0 points per game in those six games at home, while going 3-3 SU/ATS in their six true road games, including losses in each of the past two. They averaged just 23.0 PPG in their six games away from home in 2019.

-- Miami were on their way to closing out the season in style. They opened with losses to Florida and North Carolina, before wins against FCS Bethune Cookman and Central Michigan. A loss to Virginia Tech, and a win over Virginia, had them at 3-3 SU/ATS midway through. They lost a tough overtime game to Georgia Tech to slip to 3-4, and a bowl appearance looked rather remote. However, they picked up road wins at Pittsburgh and Florida State to snap on track, and a dominant 52-27 win over Louisville had them in good shape and eligible. However, a stunning loss to crosstown rival Florida International, and a setback at Duke, evened them out at 6-6. Against Group of Five FBS teams they were 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS this season.

-- Miami ranked 88th in total yards (379.7) on offense, while ranking 42nd in passing yards (257.2). They were also a dismal 120th (122.5) in rushing yards per game, while ranking 73rd in points scored (27.8). Defensively, Miami was Miami. They ranked 13th in the nation in yards allowed (307.8), which is what we expect from the Canes. They were also 22nd against the pass (197.9), 16th against the rush (109.8) and 25th in points allowed (20.8).

-- Louisiana Tech was 30th in total yards per game (445.2), 31st in passing yards (277.3) and 60th in rushing yards (167.9) per game, while posting 34.0 points per game to rank 28th. Defensively they were middle of the road, ranking 70th in total yards allowed (393.9), 98th in passing yards allowed (247.8) and 54th in rushing yards allowed (146.2), while yielding 23.7 points per game to check in 46th in the country.

-- Louisiana Tech has covered five of their past seven games overall, and they're 7-3 ATS in the past 10 as an underdog. They're also 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site contests.

-- The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their past seven bowl apperances.

-- Miami is 4-1 ATS in the past five against winning teams, but they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven as a favorite.

-- The Hurricanes are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 neutral-site battles, while going 1-7 ATS in the past eight neutral-site games as a favorite and 1-7 ATS in the past eight bowl games.

-- Kickoff is slated for 4:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


Quick Lake Bowl (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)

Pittsburgh vs. Eastern Michigan

-- The Quick Lane Bowl pits the Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) of the Atlantic Coast Conference facing the Eastern Conference Eagles (6-6 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) from the Mid-American Conference at Ford Field in Detroit, Mich.

-- Pittsburgh has enjoyed a lengthy bowl history dating back to the 1927 Rose Bowl. During that history, however, they have never faced a MAC opponent in a bowl game. The Panthers are looking to get untracked after getting dumped 31-24 by Stanford in the Sun Bowl last December.

-- Eastern Michigan heads over from nearby Washtenaw County to downtown Detroit for the fourth bowl game in school history. They're 1-2 SU all-time in bowl games, iwht their only victory coming back in Dec. 1987 against San Jose State in the California Bowl. They lost a narrow battle against Georgia Southern in the Camellia Bowl in Alabama last season.

-- The Panthers ranked 95th in total yards per game (374.1), while ranking a dismal 121st in rushing yards (120.7) per contest. They were above-average in passing yards per game at 253.4, led by Kenny Pickett, who had 2,737 passing yards. They were just 115th in points scored, however, managing a dismal 20.1 PPG. Defensively they were outstanding, as the Panthers allowed just 302.5 total yards per game to rank 11th in the nation, they gave up just 195.6 passing yards per game to rank 20th and they were 10th against the run with 106.9 yards per game. They also allowed only 21.8 points per game to check in 31st.

-- For the Eagles, they were a mediocre 67th in total yards per game (402.8), while ranking 118th in rushing yards per game (123.1). EMU was a very strong 29th in the nation with 279.7 passing yards per game, while posting 29.1 points per outing to rank 64th. Defensively, EMU had their issues, allowing 428.3 total yards per game to rank 92nd, 66th against the pass (225.8) and 109th against the rush (202.4). They yielded 30.3 PPG to check in 85th overall.

-- Pitt has posted a 10-4 ATS mark in their past 14 games in the month of December, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six non-conference battles. They're also a solid 3-0-1 ATS in the past four appearances on a fieldturf surface.

-- The Panthers are a dismal 1-4 ATS in the past five neutral-site affairs, however, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven bowl appearances.

-- Eastern Michigan is 17-6 ATS in the past 23 following a straight-up loss, and 14-4 ATS in the past 18 after a non-cover.

-- EMU is 17-8 ATS in the past 25 against winning teams, while going 21-7 ATS in the past 28 as an underdog and 17-5 ATS in the past 22 non-conference battles.

-- The under is 28-10-1 in the past 39 games overall for Pittsburgh, while going 7-1 in their past eight as a favorite. The under is 6-1 in their past seven non-conference battles, too, while cashing in four of the past five bowl games as a favorite.

-- The over is 4-1-1 in Eastern Michigan's past six games overall, 3-0-2 in the past five against teams with a winning record and 5-0-1 in the past six as an underdog.

-- Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Hawaii outlasts BYU in Hawaii Bowl
December 24, 2019

HONOLULU (AP) Cole McDonald capped a stellar performance with a 24-yard touchdown pass to Nick Mardner with 1:17 remaining, and Hawaii beat BYU 38-34 on Tuesday night for the Warriors' first 10-win season since 2010.

McDonald threw for 493 yards and four touchdowns against a BYU defense that was allowing an average of 203.8 yards passing per game.

Still, it took a late rally for Hawaii to beat BYU for the first time since 2001 when both were part of the Western Athletic Conference. Hawaii led 31-24 at halftime, but the Cougars (7-6) shut out the Warriors until the final part of the fourth.

McDonald scrambled for 9 yards. He found Mardner behind the defense for a 38-yard pass that at least put Hawaii in range to tie the game. And then he hit Mardner on a post route, and he tumbled into the end zone as Aloha Stadium erupted for its home team, even though the Warriors (10-5) were technically the visiting team.

BYU wasted a solid game by Zach Wilson, whose father grew up in Hawaii. Wilson threw for 274 yards and ran for 72 yards and two short TDs to help the Cougars rally from a 10-point deficit in the first half.

BYU's last chance ended when Khoury Bethley intercepted Wilson for the second time, and the celebration was on.

McDonald finished 28 of 46, and he did most of his damage in the first half by throwing for 331 yards and three scores. Of the four touchdown drives, the shortest was 40 yards. That one followed Bethley's first interception. Two plays later, McDonald found Jared Smart on a post route with a perfectly thrown pass that made it 14-0.

Wilson brought the Cougars back, leading them on touchdown drives of 73, 75 and 75 yards, the last one ending on Micah Simon scoring on an 11-yard reverse.

BYU still leads the series 23-9. This was the first time the schools met in a bowl game.

THE TAKEAWAY

Hawaii: McDonald used the middle of the field and was not afraid to go deep on a BYU defense that had been stubborn against the pass most of the year. He went over 4,000 yards passing for the season.

BYU: The Cougars had great balance with the run (231 yards) and pass (274 yards). But they were susceptible to the deep ball all game, and it cost them in the end.

AIR HAWAII

Hawaii receivers Smart and JoJo Ward each went over 1,000 yards for the year, joining Cedric Byrd II. This is the sixth time in NCAA history that a team had three players with at least 1,000 yards receiving in a season. Hawaii has done it twice, the other time in 2007. The other schools are Texas Tech (2003), Tulsa (2003), Houston (2009 and Fresno State (2013).

UP NEXT

Hawaii: At Arizona on Aug. 29 to open the 2020 season.

BYU: At Utah on Sept. 5 to open the 2020 season.


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Bowl Games Best Bets & Opinions ( All Based On 5 Units )

DATE................W-L-T...........%........UNITS

12/24/2019.......2-0-0......100.00%....+10.00
12/23/2019.......1-1-0........50.00%.....-0.50
12/21/2019...... 4-8-0........33.33%....-24.00
12/20/2019.......1-1-0........50.00%.....-0.50

Totals..............8-10-0........44.44%.....-15.00


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Best Bets

Date......................Ats..................Uni ts...................O/U...................Units..............Total

12/24/2019..........1 - 0..................+5.00................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
12/23/2019..........0 - 1..................-5.50.................1 - 0.................+5.00..............-0.50
12/21/2019..........2 - 3..................-6.50.................1 - 4..................-17.00............-23.50
12/20/2019..........1 - 0.................+5.00.................0 - 1..................-5.50..............- 0.50

Totals..................4 - 4...................-2.00................3 - 5..................-12.50.............-14.50

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack

Over/under win totals for baseball in 2020:

54.5— Detroit Tigers

64— Miami Marlins

65— Kansas City Royals

69.5— Seattle Mariners

71— Pittsburgh Pirates

72.5— San Francisco Giants

Fact of the Day:
In 22 of the last 40 seasons, there was at least one unbeaten in the top 10 into at least the start of February. This week, no top 10 teams are unbeaten.

Thursday’s quiz
Who was manager of the White Sox when they won the World Series in 2005?

Wednesday’s quiz
John Adams was the 2nd President of the United States.

Tuesday’s quiz
Mike Schmidt hit the most home runs ever, out of all the players who played for only one team in their career (548).

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Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Rickey Henderson was born on Christmas, which raises the question; whats the worst day of the year to have a birthday?

My votes: December 26, April 1, February 29. Could you imagine having a birthday once every four years?

12) Best days of the year to have a birthday?

My picks are January 1st, July 4th. Maybe December 31, too.

11) MLB Network ran an old hour-long special Tuesday night on the Oakland A’s of the 70’s; brought me back to my childhood days as a baseball fan. Good stuff.

10) Guessing I’m very late with this, but stumbled across an HBO series called Curb Your Enthusiasm yesterday; funny stuff. Some of Larry David’s act is cringe-worthy, but I spent lot of time laughing, which is pretty much what matters.

The late Bob Einstein was on this show; he was also the star of Super Dave, a comedy show in the 90’s, and was in Oceans 13. Funny man.

9) Celtics 118, Raptors 102— Toronto had won 34 consecutive divisional home games.

8) Edwin Encarnacion signed with the Chicago White Sox for one-year, $12M.

7) NFL named Joe Namath as one of the 22 finalists for the QB slots on their 100 greatest players list. Joe Namath is a terrific guy, was very famous, but he won two (two!!!) playoff games in his career. Overrated, for sure.

6) My top 3 quarterbacks of Super Bowl era: Elway, Staubach, Brady

5) Ben Roethlisberger said that he’ll be back with the Steelers next year, good news for fans in Pittsburgh. Big Ben hasn’t played since Week 2 this season.

4) Podcast recommendation: “How I Built This”, an interview series with successful people who built big businesses. Interesting to hear how successful people think.

3) Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson gave each of his offensive linemen a Rolex watch for Christmas.

2) Clippers 111, Lakers 106— Smart scheduling by the NBA, having the two LA teams play each other, so neither has to travel on Christmas.

High quality game; Leonard had 35 points, 12 rebounds in a game the Lakers led by 15 points in the third quarter. Harrell had 18 points in 31:00 off the bench for the Clippers.

1) Houston 75, Washington 71— Cougars win the Diamond Head Classic. We’ll see both teams in March, also on a neutral floor. Houston was +8 in turnovers; their bench outscored Huskies’ bench 18-5, after Washington led by 14 early on.

[StarDust Bum]

Dec 26- Independence Bowl, Shreveport
Skip Holtz is 5-0 in bowls at Louisiana Tech, were underdog in last two; senior QB Smith is 3-year starter. Tech figures to have crowd support wth game in Shreveport. Bulldogs were held under 300 total yards in all three losses TY- they lost two of last three regular season games, with backup QB playing in the losses; starter came back in last game. Tech is 17-8-1 ATS in last 26 games as an underdog, 2-2 TY. Three of their last four games went under. Miami lost four of its last five bowls; this is Diaz’ first bowl as a HC. Canes are 6-6, losing last two games, with a loss to FIU of C-USA. Miami is 11-17 ATS in last 28 games as a favorite, 2-6 TY. ACC teams won this game the last four years; average total in last six Independence Bowls, 68.2.

Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit
Eastern Michigan lost bowls in ’16, ’18 by total of six points but they covered both games; Eagles are 20-6-1 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog, 3-3 TY. Four of their last five games went over. Pitt lost its last four bowls, were favored in two of them; their last bowl win was here six years ago. Panthers are 7-5 TY, scoring total of 19 points in losing last two games; they’re 6-0 when they score 20+ points, 1-5 when they don’t. Pitt is 6-3-1 ATS in last ten games as a favorite, but they’re 2-5-1 in last eight tries as a double digit fave. Five of their last six games stayed under total.. Underdogs are 3-2 in this game last five years, with average total 51.2. MAC teams lost last three appearances here, scoring 19.3 ppg. Game is indoors, so no weather worries.

[StarDust Bum]

223MIAMI -224 LOUISIANA TECH
MIAMI is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) off upset loss vs conference foe since 1992.

225PITTSBURGH -226 E MICHIGAN
PITTSBURGH is 10-3 ATS (6.7 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.


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Thursday, December 26

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MIAMI (6 - 6) vs. LOUISIANA TECH (9 - 3) - 12/26/2019, 4:00:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (7 - 5) vs. E MICHIGAN (6 - 6) - 12/26/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Thursday, December 26

Louisiana Tech @ Miami-FL

Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Louisiana Tech is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Miami-FL
No trends to report

Pittsburgh @ Eastern Michigan

Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games

Eastern Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 5 games
Eastern Michigan is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games


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Thursday, December 26

Louisiana Tech @ Miami-FL

Game 224-223
December 26, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Louisiana Tech
80.102
Miami-FL
83.299
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami-FL
by 3
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami-FL
by 6
50
Dunkel Pick:
Louisiana Tech
(+6); Under

Pittsburgh @ Eastern Michigan

Game 225-226
December 26, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
82.580
Eastern Michigan
74.133
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 8 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 11
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Eastern Michigan
(+11); Under


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Thursday, December 26

MIAMI-FLA. vs. LA TECH (Independence Bowl)...Canes 2-6 as chalk TY, as dogs were 10-2 vs. line in Miami games. Miami has also failed to cover in 4 of last 6 bowls. Skip Holtz 18-8-1 as dog since 2014. Holtz also 5-0 SU, 4-1 in bowls with Bulldogs.
La Tech, based on team trends.


PITT vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN (Quick Lane Bowl)...Pitt 0-4 SU, 1-3 vs. spread last four bowls. Narduzzi 1-5-1 as DD chalk since 2016, but did cover 4 of 5 away TY. EMU 4-2-1 vs. line away from Ypsilanti this season, now 21-6-1 away from home since 2016, and 20-5-2 as dog since 2016. Note Panthers “under” 13-3 since late 2018.
EMU and “under” based on team and “totals” trends.


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Random bowl facts; Merry Christmas……

— Over the last three years, Pac-12 teams are 7-15 SU in bowl games, 3-18-1 ATS, which is hard to believe, so I checked it twice. 3-18-1 it is.

— Last five tears, Pac-12 teams are 12-27-1 ATS in bowls, 9-20-1 when favored.

— Friday was a huge day for the MAC; they won two bowl games. Over the previous three years, MAC squads were 2-15 SU in bowls, 5-12 ATS.

— Over last three years, SEC teams are 17-19 SU in bowls, 9-12 ATS when favored.

— Underdogs won four of last five Pinstripe Bowls SU.

— Three years ago, big 14 teams were 3-7 SU in bowls; the last two years, they went 12-5 SU/ATS.

— In last five Cheez-It Bowls, Big X teams are 5-0 SU, beating four Pac-12 teams and Boise State.

— Over last five years, Big X teams 5-7 ATS when favored in bowls, 13-8 when the underdog; they’re 13-6 SU in bowls the last three years.

— Over last three years, Sun Belt teams are 9-5 SU in bowls. Go figure.

— Last four years, AAC teams are 10-20 SU in bowls; 6-11 ATS when favored, 4-9 when an underdog.

— Last three years, ACC teams are 20-12-1 ATS in bowls, 9-4 when favored, 11-8-1 when they’re getting points.

— Last five years, Conference USA teams are 11-5 ATS when favored, 7-11 when an underdog.

— Pac-12 teams beat an ACC team in four of last five Sun Bowls; four of the five games were decided by 6 or fewer points.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 26
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


LT at MIA 04:00 PM
MIA -6.5
O 50.0


PITT at EMU 08:00 PM
EMU +13.0
U 49.0

[StarDust Bum]

Smith, Louisiana Tech beat Miami 14-0 in Independence Bowl
December 27, 2019
By The Associated Press

SHREVEPORT, La. (AP) J'Mar Smith threw a touchdown pass and had a late scoring run to help Louisiana Tech beat Miami 14-0 on Thursday night in the only shutout in the Independence Bowlâ??s 44-game history.

Louisiana Tech (10-3) hit double-digit victories for the first time since 1984 and ran its postseason winning streak to six. Miami (6-7) completed its second losing season in 12 years.

Smith connected with Israel Tucker on a 26-yard touchdown strike on a screen pass in the second quarter, capping a 13-play, 91-yard drive. Smith added an 8-yard scoring run with 1:15 left.

Bulldogs running back Justin Henderson was selected the Most Outstanding Offensive Player after rushing for 95 yards on 22 carries. Smith completed 13 of 28 passes for 163 yards with one interception.

The teams set the game record for punts at 18, with both tying the single-club record of nine.

QUICK LANE BOWL

PITTSBURGH 34, EASTERN MCHIGAN 30

DETROIT (AP) - Kenny Pickett threw a 25-yard touchdown pass to Taysir Mack with 47 seconds left and Pittsburgh held on to beat Eastern Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl.

After taking its first lead of the game, Pittsburgh (8-5) then forced Eastern Michigan (6-7) to turn it over on downs from its 40. That sealed Pitt's first bowl victory in five appearances under coach Pat Narduzzi.

Eastern Michigan quarterback Mike Glass was ejected with 10 seconds left after throwing punches at two players. Eagles cornerback Kevin McGill was ejected earlier for unsportsmanlike conduct. Glass was 28 of 50 for 311 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. The senior also ran for 83 yards and a score.

Pickett completed 27 of 39 passes for 361 yards and three scores, including a school-record, 96-yard TD pass to Maurice Ffrench. Ffrench finished with 12 catches for 165 yards.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY DECEMBER 27, 2019

Time (ET) Bowl Away Home

12:00 PM Military Bowl North Carolina Tar Heels Temple Owls

3:20 PM Pinstripe Bowl Michigan State Spartans Wake Forest Demon Deacons

6:45 PM Texas Bowl Oklahoma State Cowboys Texas A&M Aggies

8:00 PM Holiday Bowl Southern California Trojans Iowa Hawkeyes

10:15 PM Cheez-It Bowl Washington State Cougars Air Force Falcons


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Bowl Games Best Bets & Opinions ( All Based On 5 Units )

DATE................W-L-T...........%........UNITS

12/26/2019.......1-3-0.......25.00%......-11.50
12/24/2019.......2-0-0......100.00%....+10.00
12/23/2019.......1-1-0........50.00%.....-0.50
12/21/2019...... 4-8-0........33.33%....-24.00
12/20/2019.......1-1-0........50.00%.....-0.50

Totals..............9-13-0........40.90%.....-26.50


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Best Bets

Date......................Ats..................Uni ts...................O/U...................Units..............Total


12/26/2019..........1 - 1..................-0.50.................0 - 2.................-11.00.............-11.50
12/24/2019..........1 - 0..................+5.00................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
12/23/2019..........0 - 1..................-5.50.................1 - 0.................+5.00..............-0.50
12/21/2019..........2 - 3..................-6.50.................1 - 4..................-17.00............-23.50
12/20/2019..........1 - 0.................+5.00.................0 - 1..................-5.50..............- 0.50

Totals..................5 - 5...................-2.50................3 - 7..................-23.50.............-26.00

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

Over/under win totals for baseball in 2020:

88— St Louis Cardinals

86.5— Cleveland Indians

84.5— Los Angeles Angels

81— Arizona Diamondbacks

79.5— Texas Rangers

75.5— Colorado Rockies

Quote of the Day:
“He’s going to be the quarterback. He’s going to be the future of the Denver Broncos.”
Von Miller, talking about rookie QB Drew Lock

Friday’s quiz
Where did Shaquille O’Neal finish his NBA career?

Thursday’s quiz
Ozzie Guillen was manager of the White Sox when they won the World Series in ’05.

Wednesday’s quiz
John Adams was the 2nd President of the United States.

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Friday’s Den: In a perfect world, where I made all the decisions……..

13) I’d like everyone to be nicer to each other; life is short, lets enjoy it.

Lets tolerate our differences; I like the A’s, you like someone else. you like beer, I like Cherry Coke, our differences are what make life interesting.

12) A friend of mine wouldn’t talk to me for a year because I didn’t vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (I voted for the 3rd party candidate). Why take life that seriously? Especially the way Presidential elections are, the Democrat almost always wins New York anyway.

11) Would a date with Gina Gershon be too much to ask for? (probably, yes…..)

10) Sounds like one of the things I’ve been posting in this space for years will finally happen; both leagues should have the DH in 2022. Both leagues should have the same rules.

9) Lets do away with Daylight Savings Time; who needs sunlight at 5:30am? Keep the clocks the way they are in the summer. Let it stay light as late in the day as possible.

8) Can we get rid of the Electoral College? Whoever gets the most votes should win, yes?

7) Every kid would learn basic life skills in high school: cooking, laundry, how to write a check, how to do a budget, the divorce laws.

When it comes to cooking, I can make one thing……reservations.

6) No Thursday NFL games, except for Week 1 and Thanksgiving Day. Instead, why not have Monday night doubleheaders every week? 7:00/10:30 games; that would be fun.

5) NBA playoff series would be two out of three until the Finals, which would be best-of-5.

4) College football teams shouldn’t be playing I-AA opponents; I mean, Alabama played Western Carolina this year, and Florida played UT-Martin AND Towson State- how does this happen? Why would anyone pay to see mismatches like this?

3) I’d be in favor of college basketball adopting the NBA’s 8-second rule for getting the ball over half court; most anything that encourages pressing and a faster-paced game is a good thing.

2) I’d make cigarettes illegal; they’re known to cause cancer. What is good about them?

1) I’d make sure DirecTV picked up the Pac-12 Network. Its not too much to ask. This is my list after all.

Hope everyone had a great Christmas.