Cnotes 2019-2020 College Football Trends-News-Notes-Best Bets & Opinions !

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Trends - Army vs. Navy
December 10, 2019
By Bruce Marshall


SATURDAY, DEC. 14

Matchup Skinny Edge

ARMY vs. NAVY (at Philadelphia)...Major “under” series with 13 meetings in a row going that way. Navy had won 14 in a row SU in series until 2016, when Army began current 3-game win streak. Note underdog side has also covered in last five and 8 of last 10 in series. Army 6-2 last 8 as dog. Mids on 11-3-1 spread uptick since late 2018 and are 6-1 as chalk in 2019.
“Under,” based on series “totals” trends.

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Army vs. Navy - Best Bets
December 11, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Army vs. Navy
Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Time/TV: Friday, Nov. 15 (CBS, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Navy -10.5, Tota. 40.5

The college football regular season is in the books, conference champions have been crowned, and the playoff and bowl games have all been laid out. Meaning the only thing left is the annual Army/Navy game that acts as the unofficial bridge from regular season to bowl season play in the sport.

While the annual tradition on the field for this game showcases how special those involved in either of these programs are on a daily basis, from a betting market perspective, there is an annual tradition involved too. That is, when the Army/Navy game arrives, take the 'under' and already spend your winnings like a Christmas bonus. The 'under' has cashed in 13 straight years in this matchup, and to the shock of no one, this year's total saw nothing but 'under' action out of the gate.

For bettors that love to play streaks and live by the notion that you 100% have to ride streaks until they buck you because you can win multiple units riding said streak and only lose one when it halts, the 'under' in the Army/Navy game is always their glowing example of that case study.

So the question remains, will that streak stay in tact and give the masses another early holiday bonus, or will Scrooge finally show up and let both of these teams put some points up on the scoreboard?
CFB Odds: Navy (-10.5); Total set at 40.5
Before I go further into the total talk here, the side needs to be addressed. Remember, it had quite a streak as well with Navy winning 14 straight meetings from 2002 through 2015. The Black Knights finally squashed that back in 2016 with a 21-17 win and have now rung that up to three straight entering this year's game.

Now, seeing Army as a big underdog in this game is something bettors are quite used to as well, but for a team that saw an absurd amount of support in the preseason season win total market at 'over' 10 wins, you've got to wonder if similar support will show up this week. I'm not sure how you could expect any Service Academy team to win double digits entering the year – their undersized lines (OL and DL) because of their off-field duties are always going to be prone to getting worn down and beat up on by prototypical football teams – and that's not even considering a lack of execution angle that's bound to pop up from time to time in games. That's not to say Service Academy teams aren't capable of winning 10+ games, they definitely are, (Navy will hit 10 wins with a win this week), but to 'expect' it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. To each his own though.

I bring that up because this Army team was expected to be much better then their current 5-7 SU record coming into this game. And with no Bowl game after this one, what's the best way for Army to put a positive cap on an otherwise disappointing campaign? Beating Navy of course.

A fourth straight win in this rivalry would be only the second time Army's program has accomplished that feat since before 1950 (they won five in a row from 1992-1996), an no matter how the entire season has gone for either program, winning this game ultimately makes their year. Given that Navy severely outperformed their preseason projections – they came into the year with a win total at 5.5 – taking the points with an Army team that's got plenty to prove would be the main way I'd look against the spread.

But that also means that you are going against a senior class at Navy that's yet to experience a win in this rivalry in their careers – yes, I know Navy could win and Army could cover – and given that the Midshipmen have been the ones to be better and more consistent all year long, stepping in front of that can be considered a tricky proposition. Teasing Navy down (or Army up for that matter) is always an option as well, but that means you need something to tease it to. Which brings me to the total.

There isn't a whole lot of need to go into all the main reasons why the 'under' has been so successful, as they are points that are beaten down to exhaustion and there is little need to get latched on to that pipe. If you are going the teaser route, teasing it 'under' the number definitely makes a whole lot of sense, but at the same time, that's going to be the overwhelmingly popular way to play this game, and that can be fundamentally problematic in handicapping routines/behaviors if you aren't at least considerate of the highly popular side.

Instead, let's see if there is a potential case to be made for the 'over'.

Well for one, the fact that Navy outperformed and Army underperformed relative to their preseason projections could actually work in the favor of an 'over' here.

From the Navy perspective, they've found a method that works for them this season and has produced favorable results. They put up at least 20 points in every single one of their games this year, 34+ points in nine of their 11 games, and only had one game finish with a combined score less than 52 points. That was a 35-3 win against USF, and with plenty of 'under' money likely yet to hit the board for this game (it's only Wednesday), we could see this total close at 38 or lower too. Even Navy's game against Air Force saw both teams put up at least 25 points, and if you are looking for a comparable, that's got to be the first place to look.

From Army's perspective, this is their last shot in 2019 to prove that there was at least some truth in that 10-win projection they had coming into the year, and it's not like Navy's defense can't be scored on. Army finished the year by putting up 31+ points in three straight games, and while their tilt with Air Force ended in a 17-13 loss, Army had 214 passing yards – yes 214 passing yards – in defeat. Which leads into my second point...

An 'over' in college football generally relies on needing the underdog to put up points and carry their weight. Given that Army averaged their most pass attempts per game (10.6) this year and most completions per game (5.1) since 2013 is relatively important. That's because the 2013 Army/Navy game was the last time this contest saw 41 or more points. It landed right on the nose of 41 (34-7), and Navy did the majority of the scoring that day, but Army throwing the ball more does lend itself to getting more points. Either through those pass attempts connecting – and likely in a big way – or more clock stoppages to actually slow the game down and give both sides maybe an extra possession or two relative to what we are used to seeing from them in recent years.

Obviously that logic will feel like a stretch for some, as it's always going to be easier to look at 13 straight 'unders' and just blindly ride it, and who knows, maybe we do see it cash for a 14th straight time. But eventually this 'under' run will end, and with both sides having a winning record to the 'over' this year – Army is 6-5-1 O/U while Navy is 7-4 O/U – and both being plenty comfortable in games where they need 30+ points to win, I'm going to look for that streak to be broken this season.

There is always going to be inherent value in looking at the high side of the total in this game because of the long 'under' run it's been on, and with rain in the forecast, maybe we get a few critical turnovers to get some quick points up on the board to help the cause.

It still doesn't hurt to wait as I doubt this number goes much higher, if at all, as it's likely to keep dropping once more recreational money hits the board with this being the only game in town. But I've got to publish my thoughts now, at 40.5, I'm plenty comfortable going against the grain and taking the high side of this total.

Best Bet: Over

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 14
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ARMY at NAVY 03:00 PM

NAVY -11.5

O 40.5

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Navy runs past Army, 'under' hits
December 14, 2019

PHILADELPHIA (AP) Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo wrapped Malcolm Perry tighter than an Army defense could muster for an embrace that served as a bit of an apology.

Perry had done it all for Navy in a 31-7 victory Saturday that earned him MVP honors in the 120th game between the service academies. Perry became the fourth quarterback in FBS history to rush for 300 yards, running for 304 yards with two touchdowns, and set a slew of program records.

It forced Niumatalolo to go on TV and issue a mea culpa: ''I'm a bad coach. How did I bench him last year?''

Perry's biggest number? For the senior it was one, as in, the first time he led the No. 21 Mids past Army.

''This was the biggest game I've played in my life,'' Perry said. ''We didn't win the last three games. But that makes this even more sweet.''

Navy (10-2, No. 23, CFP) used a trick play to help reverse a rare losing streak against Army and won the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy for the 16th time.

Navy leads the series 61-52-7. The Black Knights (5-8) were trying to win four straight games in the Army-Navy series for the first time since 1993 to 1996.

Perry, the 5-foot-9, 190-pound senior quarterback, helped the fleet-of-foot Navy offense run away with the game. He ran for a 55-yard TD in the first half, added a 44-yard scamper and set Navy season records in yards rushing and total 100-yard games.

''We wanted to open up the box. The last few years, we played in a phone booth,'' Niumatalolo said. ''We didn't want to play that way. We wanted to spread things out and let Malcolm's talent take over.''

But Perry's role in Navy's most GIF-worthy play didn't end up with his name on the scoring sheet.

Perry took the snap at the 1-yard line, ran to his left and handed off the ball to receiver Chance Warren, who threw to Jamale Carothers for the score and a 14-7 lead. It was Navy's twist on the Philly Special - the Naval Special? - at the home of the Philadelphia Eagles.

It was Navy's only yard passing of the game.

''I kind of suspected it when we got down there,'' Perry said.

Perry, who ran 29 times, did not attempt a pass and Army surprise starter Christian Anderson threw just two times. There was more running at Lincoln Financial Field than at the Penn Relays held down the road each spring.

Anderson wasn't even listed on the two-deep depth chart and got the call over Kelvin Hopkins Jr. Hopkins had two rushing touchdowns last year in Army's 17-10 win over Navy and curiously played only mop-time in Saturday's loss. Anderson sparked the Black Knights on the game's methodical 10-minute, 41-second opening drive, scoring on a 5-yard run.

Army coach Jeff Monken said Hopkins had a pulled hamstring and only practiced once this week.

''He wasn't going to be able to just turn it on and open up,'' Monken said.

Perry needed just four plays to even the score on his first dynamic run of the game that sent the Mids into a frenzy. The traditional Philly game drew 68,075 fans and ESPN's ''College GameDay'' was on hand. The Cadets and Midshipmen stood, saluted, bounced and cheered for the entirety of what's billed as ''America's Game.'' President Donald Trump attended the game for the second straight year. Trump also was at the 2016 game as president-elect.

Trump wore a red ''Keep America Great'' hat for the traditional coin flip in misty conditions. Army called heads, the coin landed tails and the Midshipmen deferred possession. The referee said before the toss it was with ''great pride, great honor, to welcome our Commander in Chief, our President of the United States, Donald J. Trump. Mr. President, thank you for all that you do.''

With pride and patriotism stretched end zone to end zone, Trump sat on the Army side of the field in the first half and crossed the field to the Navy side for the second half.

Carothers crossed the goal line for a 5-yard score in the third that made it 21-3 and sent the 10 1/2-point favorite Mids on their way toward clinching the CIC Trophy, awarded to the team with the best record in games among the three service academies.

''We're taking it home!'' Navy players yelled as they carried the trophy.

Bijan Nichols kicked a 37-yard field goal and Perry added a 15-yard TD run in the fourth.

THE TAKEAWAY

Army: The Black Knights rushed for only 123 yards after averaging 311.7 yards this season, good enough for second nationally. Army had to surrender the CIC Trophy after winning it in consecutive seasons for the first time in program history.

''I wish I could pick out one thing that went wrong,'' Monken said. ''We just never seemed to be playing as well as we're capable of playing. We're never going to be so talented that we can line up and whip a team on talent alone. When there's mistakes, they can be very costly for us.''

Navy: Is trying to finish the season ranked in the AP Top 25 for only the third time (2004, 2015) in the last 56 years. Navy has been ranked during the season four times in the last five years. The Mids also improved to 11-2 over Army at Lincoln Financial Field.

RECORD WIN

Niumatalolo became the winningest coach in the history of the Army-Navy series with nine. Army's Earl Blaik went 8-8-2 from 1941-1958.

300 YARDS

QBs Khalil Tate in 2017, Jordan Lynch in 2013 and Stacey Robinson in 1990 all topped the 300-yard rushing mark in a game.

NAPOLEON OVERTHROWN

Perry passed Napoleon McCallum to set Navy's single-season rushing mark with 1,804 yards. McCallum held the record since 1983 with 1,587 yards.

Perry also became Navy's single-season record holder in total offense (2,831 yards). He also became the career leading rusher in the Army-Navy series, and he had the most rushing yards in a single game in the series.

UP NEXT

Army's season is over.

Navy plays Kansas State on Dec. 31 in the Liberty Bowl.

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LSU QB Joe Burrow wins Heisman Trophy in landslide vote
December 14, 2019
By The Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) Born into a family of Cornhuskers and raised in the Buckeye state, Joe Burrow left his roots behind and became a Heisman Trophy winner at LSU.

The quarterback won the Heisman on Saturday night in a record-breaking landslide, becoming the first LSU player to bring college football's most prestigious award back to Baton Rouge, Louisiana, in 60 years.

Burrow received 2,608 points and 841 first-place votes, a record 90.7% of all the first-place votes available. Burrow also set a record for percentage of points available received with 93.8, breaking the mark of 91.6% set by Troy Smith of Ohio State in 2006. Burrow was named on 95.5% of all ballots, breaking the record of 95.2% set by Oregon's Marcus Mariota in 2014.

Burrow's margin of victory of 1,846 points broke the record of 1,750 set by O.J. Simpson of Southern California in 1968.

Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts was second with 762 points. Quarterback Justin Fields of Ohio State was third and defensive end Chase Young of Ohio State was fourth.

Burrow transferred last year to LSU from Ohio State, where he was a sparingly used reserve. After finishing strong for the Tigers in 2018, he broke out this season, setting a Southeastern Conference record with 48 touchdown passes and leading top-ranked LSU (13-0) to its first College Football Playoff appearance.

Burrow's victory was a foregone conclusion, but after he was announced as the winner it still overwhelmed him.

''That's the most I've cried in 23 years of living,'' Burrow said later.

After hugging his parents and coaches, Burrow made his way to the stage inside the PlayStation Theater in Times Square. He started his acceptance speech, stopped and took 23 seconds to compose himself before rattling off the names of LSU's other offensive players.

''All my teammates have supported me, welcomed me with open arms. Kid from Ohio, come down to the Bayou, and welcomed me as brothers,'' Burrow said, with about two dozen former Heisman winners standing behind him on stage.

''What a special moment,'' LSU coach Ed Orgeron said. ''I thought Joe handled everything first class. It's the first time I've seen him get that emotional.''

The Tigers will face No. 4 Oklahoma and Hurts on Dec. 28 at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta.

''I'm ready to get back to Baton Rouge and start practice on Monday,'' Burrow said.

Burrow, a senior, blended perfectly with first-year LSU passing game coordinator Joe Brady and produced the most prolific offense in school history. Playing in a version of the offense Drew Brees runs for the New Orleans Saints, Burrow has shown accuracy and quick decision-making similar to his childhood idol. With at least one game left, Burrow has passed for 4,715 yards and is completing 77.9% of his passes, on pace to set an NCAA record.

The kid who grew up thinking he might play college basketball has blossomed into the possible first overall pick in April's NFL draft, and LSU's second Heisman winner.

Halfback Billy Cannon won the Heisman for LSU in 1959. The 60-year gap between Heisman victories for LSU is the largest for any school with multiple winners.

Burrow is the 17th quarterback to win the Heisman since 2000, and the third straight QB to win the award after transferring, joining Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield (2017) and Kyler Murray (2018).

Burrow's dad, Jimmy Burrow, was a longtime college football coach who played at Nebraska. He spent the last 14 years of his career as defensive coordinator at Ohio University in Athens before retiring to spend his weekends watching his son play.

''It's been a dream season for him as well,'' Burrow said.

Joe Burrow grew up in The Plains, Ohio. His older brothers both played at Nebraska.

His father's old boss, Ohio coach Frank Solich, hoped the youngest Burrow boy would play for the Bobcats, but Joe took off in high school. Burrow was Mr. Football in Ohio in 2014 and signed with Ohio State the next year.

In Columbus, Ohio, Burrow joined an already loaded quarterback room with J.T. Barrett, Cardale Jones and Braxton Miller. Burrow redshirted as a freshman and played a little in 2016.

In 2017, he was competing with Dwayne Haskins to be Barrett's backup and broke his hand in preseason practice. That opened the door for Haskins to position himself as the quarterback of the future for Ohio State.

After spring practice in 2018, having already graduated from Ohio State, Burrow decided to transfer. LSU wasn't his first choice, but Orgeron recruited the quarterback hard.

''He gave me an opportunity when not a lot of people thought I was going to do anything,'' Burrow said. ''He trusted me with his program.''

Burrow was interested in Nebraska, but that interest wasn't reciprocated. Cincinnati seemed like a possibility, playing for former Ohio State assistant coach Luke Fickell.

A visit to LSU, with its 100,000-seat stadium, history of winning, southern hospitality and SEC competition, won over Burrow. Orgeron has called Burrow his most important recruit and maybe the most important recruit in the history of LSU football.

That might have sounded like hyperbole a few months ago.

Not anymore.

''It's been a long and winding (journey),'' Burrow said, ''and there's still more chapters to be written.''

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NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Trend Report
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Friday, December 20

Buffalo @ Charlotte
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Charlotte
Charlotte is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Utah State @ Kent State
Utah State
Utah State is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Utah State's last 10 games
Kent State
Kent State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kent State's last 6 games


Saturday, December 21

Central Michigan @ San Diego State
Central Michigan
Central Michigan is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Central Michigan is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
San Diego State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego State's last 5 games
San Diego State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

Liberty @ Georgia Southern
Liberty
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Liberty's last 6 games
Liberty is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Georgia Southern
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia Southern's last 5 games
Georgia Southern is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

Southern Methodist @ Florida Atlantic
Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Southern Methodist's last 12 games
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida Atlantic is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Florida International @ Arkansas State
Florida International
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida International's last 5 games when playing Arkansas State
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Florida International's last 18 games
Arkansas State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arkansas State's last 5 games when playing Florida International
Arkansas State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Boise State @ Washington
Boise State
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boise State's last 5 games
Washington
Washington is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Washington is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games

Appalachian State @ Alabama-Birmingham
Appalachian State
Appalachian State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Appalachian State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Alabama-Birmingham
Alabama-Birmingham is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Alabama-Birmingham's last 6 games


Monday, December 23

Central Florida @ Marshall
Central Florida
Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Marshall
Central Florida is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
Marshall
Marshall is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Marshall's last 15 games


Tuesday, December 24

Brigham Young @ Hawaii
Brigham Young
Brigham Young is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hawaii
Brigham Young is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Hawaii
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hawaii's last 5 games at home
Hawaii is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


Thursday, December 26

Louisiana Tech @ Miami-FL
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Louisiana Tech is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami-FL
No trends to report

Pittsburgh @ Eastern Michigan
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games
Eastern Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 5 games
Eastern Michigan is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games


Friday, December 27


this report will update....


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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Dec 20- Bahamas Bowl
C-USA went 3-2 vs MAC in this game last five years, with average total of 66.2. Buffalo is 0-3 in bowls, giving up average of 43 ppg- this is first time Bulls went to consecutive bowls. Buffalo won five of its last six games overall after a 2-4 start; they’re 16-6-1 ATS in last 23 games as a favorite, 5-3 TY. Seven of their last nine games went over. Leipold is 30-32 in five years at Buffalo; he was 109-6 as a D-III coach. Charlotte gets to its first bowl in its fifth year of I-A ball; 49ers won their last five games after a 2-5 start, scoring 32.6 ppg- they’re 4-4 ATS as an underdog TV, covering lat three tries. Charlotte ran ball for 497 yards in last two games; they’ve got a soph QB. Three of their last four games went under.

Frisco Bowl, Frisco, TX
Kent State is in its 3rd bowl, first since 2012; they’re 6-6 TY after being 12-47 previous five years. Golden Flashes scored 35 ppg in winning their last three games; they’ve covered six of eight games as an underdog TY. Three of their last four games went over. Utah State is in 3rd straight bowl, 6th in last seven years; they went 3-2 in last five bowls. Aggies won three of last four games after a 4-4 start; junior QB Love is bolting school early for NFL- this is his 32nd/last college start. USU is 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games as a favorite, 4-2 TY; they’re 6-4 ATS in last 10 games with single digit spread. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Favorites won/covered this bowl four of last five years, with average total of 67.2.


Dec 21- New Mexico Bowl
San Diego State went 9-3 despite scoring 17 or less points in half their games- they beat a I-AA team 6-0, were 6-0 SU scoring more than 17 points. 10 of their 11 games stayed under. Aztecs lost bowls 42-35/27-0 last two years; they’ve got senior QB making 19th start. Central Michigan went 1-11 LY, made bowl TY in McElwain’s first year at CMU. Chippewas are in 5th bowl in six years but they lost last four bowls, scoring 12.7 ppg in last three. CMU won six of last eight games, losing MAC title game 26-21; they’re 4-2-1 ATS as an underdog TY. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Underdogs covered five of last seven New Mexico Bowls; Mountain West team is 3-2 in this game last five years, with average total of 55.2.

Cure Bowl, Orlando
Liberty is in its first bowl in their 2nd year of I-A ball; Hugh Freeze is 3-1 in bowls, going 3-0 when he coached at Ole Miss. Flames have a senior QB making his 43rd/last start; they’re 1-4 when they allow 31+ points, 6-1 when they allow less than 31. Liberty is 6-7 ATS as an underdog since going D-I. Four of their last five games went over. Georgia Southern won six of last eight games after a 2-4 start; they scored 40.7 ppg in last three games. Eagles won their only two bowls, nipping Eastern Michigan 23-21 LY- they’ve got a junior QB with 35 starts who threw for 704 yards, ran for 674 yards TY. Four of their last five games went over. Sun Belt teams split four Cure Bowls, with average total of 49.

Boca Raton Bowl, Boca Raton, FL
Is it good to play a bowl on your home field? After your coach bolted to an SEC job? Owls are 3-0 in bowls, winning this game 50-3 over Akron LY, now they’re playing a home bowl for 2nd year in a row. FAU won 10 of 11 games after losing to Ohio St/UCF to open season; they’ve got a soph QB wth 23 starts. Owls covered five of last six games; they’re 1-8 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog, 5-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread. SMU split its last four games after an 8-0 start; they scored 28-48 points in their losses; over is 9-3 in their games TY- Mustangs are 2-4 ATS in last six games as a road favorite, 1-1 TY. SMU is in its 2nd bowl in seven years; they lost 51-10 to La Tech in a bowl two years ago. Favorites covered four of first five Boca Raton Bowls, with average total of 61.8.

Camellia Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Arkansas State has had emotional 7-5 season; their coach’s wife passed away August 19- he missed their first game. Red Wolves won four of last five games, throwing for 300+ yards in last four games; they’re 4-3 ATS in games with single digit spread. FIU went 6-6 this year, after going 16-10 last two years; they’ve split four bowl games, with dogs covering three of them. Panthers are 1-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread- they did upset Miami, but then lost to Marshall. FIU allowed 200+ YR in five of its six losses; they’ve got a senior QB with 38 starts. Butch Davis is 6-3 in bowl games. Underdogs covered four of last five Camellia Bowls, with average total of 57.8. Sun Belt teams won this bowl three of last four years.

Las Vegas Bowl
Chris Petersen unexpectedly quit as Washington’s coach; his last game is against his old team, where he went 92-12 from 2006-13. Huskies were disappointing 7-5 TY with only two starters back on defense- they’re 0-5 in games decided by 10 or fewer points. Washington is 1-4 in bowls under Petersen, with average total of 54.2. Boise State’s bowl game LY in Dallas was cancelled because of severe weather with 5:08 left in first quarter; Broncos are 3-1 in bowls under Harsin- they upset Oregon in this game two years ago. Boise won its last six games; their only loss was 28-25 at BYU in October. Four of their last five games went under. Mountain West team won this bowl last three years; favorites are 5-3 ATS in this game last eight years, with average total in last five, 55.8.

New Orleans Bowl
UAB lost C-USA title game 49-6 to FAU two weeks ago; they’re 9-4 TY, scoring 13 or fewer points in all four losses. UAB won three of last four games; they’re 0-3 ATS as an underdog TY, after covering 13 of previous 18 tries as an underdog. Blazers are 1-2 in bowls, with favorites covering all three games. Appalachian State is 12-1, with only loss by FG to Ga Southern on Halloween; Mountaineers scored 45.8 ppg in last four games- they’re 5-4 as a double digit favorite TY. ASU won this bowl 45-13 LY; they’re 4-0 in bowls, scoring 31+ points in all four- this is their 6th year as a I-A team. Favorites won/covered last four New Orleans Bowls; Sun Belt team won this game six of last eight years. Average total in this bowl last five years, 56.2.

Dec 23- Gasparilla Bowl, Tampa
Marshall won its last seven bowl games; they won here 38-20 LY, beating the home team (South Florida). Thundering Herd also won this game in ’15. Favorites won this bowl the last four years (3-1 ATS). Average total in this bowl last four years: 37.0. Marshall won six of its last seven games overall after a 2-3 start; they’re 9-3 ATS in last dozen games as an underdog. 2-1 TY. Central Florida is 9-3, with losses by total of 7 points; they won five of last six games, are 4-5 ATS as a double digit favorite TY. UCF allowed 35-27-34 points in their three losses. Knights lost three of last four bowl games, with average total of 66.4 in last five bowls. Three of their last four games went under total.

Dec 24- Hawai’i Bowl
BYU beat Hawai’i 49-23/30-20 last two years; BYU has a campus in Hawai’i- they’ll have fan support here, too. Cougars were held to 23 or fewer points in their five losses- they’re 7-0 scoring more than 23. Underdogs covered BYU’s last eight games. BYU won five of last six games after a 2-4 start; they won their last two bowls. Favorites covered four of BYU’s last five bowls. Hawai’i is in this bowl for third time in four years, splitting last two; Rainbows won four of last five games after a 5-4 start, losing MW title game to Boise St two weeks ago- they allowed average of 43 ppg in their last five bowls. Hawai’i is 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog, 1-1 TY. Average total in last four Hawai’i Bowls, 60.3.

This report will update....

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College football non-New Year's Six bowls odds and action: Michigan-Alabama total quickly surges up
Patrick Everson

Nick Saban and Alabama reached the College Football Playoff in each of its first five years, but missed out this season, The Crimson Tide are 7-point favorites against Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.

Much of the college football talk this past week centered on the four-team College Football Playoff and the other four New Year’s Six bowl games. But there are plenty of other interesting matchups spread across the holiday season. Covers checks in on the opening lines and early action for a handful of games, and provides a complete list of every other matchup, with insights from oddsmaker Matt Lindeman at Circa Sports in Las Vegas.

Citrus Bowl

(14) MICHIGAN VS (13) ALABAMA (-6.5)

Alabama lost quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a hip injury in mid-November in a blowout win at Mississippi State, which might have kept Nick Saban’s squad out of the CFP. Two weeks later at Auburn, the Crimson Tide (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) fell just short 48-45 as 3.5-point favorites.

Had ‘Bama won that Iron Bowl matchup, it would’ve been interesting to see how the CFP selection committee rated the Tide against one-loss Oklahoma.

Michigan had a nice October/November stretch in which it won four in a row SU and five consecutive ATS, but the regular season ended with a big thud at the Big House. The Wolverines (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) got trucked by Ohio State 56-27 as 9-point home underdogs.

“We opened this number at ‘Bama -6.5. As you could expect, there isn't a ton of Michigan interest early, and ‘Bama money has driven us up to -7,” Lindeman said of this New Year’s Day game. “We've also seen a flood of Over money that's pushed the total up from 54.5 to 59.5. This is an intriguing game, because both teams could potentially have players sitting out in preparation for the NFL Draft.

“Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines didn't show any interest in their bowl game against Florida last season,” Lindeman added, alluding to a 41-15 Peach Bowl loss. “But the Crimson Tide have questionable motivation after missing out on the playoff for the first time in years.”


Las Vegas Bowl

WASHINGTON VS (19) BOISE STATE (+6.5)

The bowl committee in Vegas spiced this up by having Washington coach Chris Petersen, who resigned Dec. 2 but will coach in this Dec. 21 tilt, go up against a Boise State program he put on the national roadmap.

Washington got some preseason chatter as a potential CFP contender, but a stunning Week 2 home loss to California and a midseason three-losses-in-four-weeks stretch doomed any such hopes. The Huskies (7-5 SU and ATS) capped the regular season with a 31-13 win over Washington State laying 7.5 points at home.

Boise State is on a six-game winning streak that followed its only loss of the year, at Brigham Young as a touchdown chalk in Week 8. The Broncos (12-1 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) rolled over Hawaii 31-10 giving 14 points in the Mountain West Conference championship game.

This line was on the move immediately, opening Washington -6.5 last Sunday and dropping to Huskies -3.5 in less than an hour.

“The market did not like our opener on this game, as our Washington -6.5 number was quickly bet down,” Lindeman said. “We're currently sitting at -3.5 and will be rooting for Chris Petersen in his swan song. It's been a down year for the Huskies, and Boise State loves getting its shot at Pac-12 opponents in bowl season. But I haven't been terribly impressed by Boise State, and I wouldn't be surprised if this number goes back up.”


Outback Bowl

(18) MINNESOTA VS (12) AUBURN (-7)

Heading into Week 12, Minnesota was surprisingly undefeated and in the Big Ten title chase, and therefore was a possible CFP contender if things broke right. But they didn’t. The Golden Gophers (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) lost at Iowa that week, and in the regular-season finale two weeks later, they tumbled at home to Wisconsin 38-17 as 3-point pups.

Auburn faced a stretch of SEC games in which it traveled to Florida and LSU, then hosted Georgia in a span of six weeks, and Gus Malzahn’s troops lost all three games. However, the Tigers (9-3 SU and ATS) finished the regular season with a big exclamation point, outlasting Alabama 48-45 catching 3.5 points at home in the Iron Bowl.

“There has been some Auburn support early, as they've bet the game from -7 to -7.5,” Lindeman said. “P.J. Fleck's squad has been a pleasant surprise this year, but doesn't quite stack up to Auburn from a talent standpoint. This could be one of the best defenses Minnesota has faced yet.”

Lindeman said the total spiked from Sunday’s opener of 49 up to 52.5 by Saturday, with Over money coming in early for this Jan. 1 affair.


Quick Lane Bowl

PITTSBURGH VS EASTERN MICHIGAN (+16.5)

Pittsburgh dropped its last two games and three of its last five, so coach Pat Narduzzi’s squad doesn’t bring much momentum into this Dec. 26 contest at Ford Field in Detroit. The Panthers (7-5 SU and ATS) went off as 9-point favorites at Boston College in Week 14 and were dealt a 26-19 outright loss.

Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan barely reached bowl eligibility in the Mid-American Conference, needing wins in two of its last three games to do so. The Eagles (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) closed with a 34-26 loss at Kent State laying 4 points.

“This game was our biggest disagreement with the offshore market, as we opened it Pittsburgh -16.5 and other books opened it -9.5,” Lindeman said. “We were quickly bet down under 14 and have now settled in at 10.5. Eastern Michigan is getting to play in its home state, but this looks like a serious mismatch. The MAC typically struggles during bowl season.”


Independence Bowl

MIAMI VS LOUISIANA TECH (+10)

Miami likely had higher hopes than landing in this Dec. 26 game in Shreveport, La., but that’s what happens when a team falls to .500 after losing its last two games as a sizable favorite. The Hurricanes (6-6 SU and ATS) went off as 21-point faves at Florida International and tumbled 30-24, then lost at Duke 27-17 giving 9.5 points.

Louisiana Tech had a four-game midseason SU and ATS streak, then rebounded from a two-game hiccup to finish with a Week 14 win. The Bulldogs (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) pulled away from Texas-San Antonio in the second half to claim a 41-27 victory, though they failed to cash as hefty 21-point home favorites.

“We've seen a big move on the ‘dog here, as Louisiana Tech is playing an hour from campus and Miami is traditionally a horrible bowl bet,” Lindeman said. “We opened the game Miami -10 and have been bet down to 6.5. The Hurricanes are obviously the more talented team, but really struggled down the stretch and have major questions at quarterback. It's hard to make a strong case for them in this one.”

Miami coach Manny Diaz indicated starting QB Jarren Williams and backup N’Kosi Perry will compete to see who starts in the Independence Bowl.


Below are opening/current lines at Circa Sports for all other bowl games. Asterisk (*) denotes College Football Playoff matchups.

Bahamas Bowl, Dec. 20: Buffalo from -4 to -6.5 vs. Charlotte.
Frisco Bowl, Dec. 20: Utah State from -8.5 to -7 vs. Kent State.
New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 21: San Diego State from -2 to -3.5 vs. Central Michigan.
Cure Bowl, Dec. 21: Georgia Southern from -6 to -5 vs. Liberty.
Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 21: Southern Methodist from -5.5 to -3 vs. Florida Atlantic.
Camellia Bowl, Dec. 21: From pick to Arkansas State -2.5 vs. Florida International.
New Orleans Bowl, Dec. 21: Appalachian State from -15 to -16.5 vs. Alabama-Birmingham.
Gasparilla Bowl, Dec. 23: Central Florida -17 vs. Marshall, no move.
Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24: From pick to Brigham Young -1.5 vs. Hawaii.
Military Bowl, Dec. 27: North Carolina from -7.5 to -4.5 vs. Temple.
Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 27: Michigan State -3 to -5 vs. Wake Forest.
Texas Bowl, Dec. 27: Texas A&M from -4.5 to -7.5 vs. Oklahoma State.
Holiday Bowl, Dec. 27: From pick to Iowa -2 vs. Southern California.
Cheez-It Bowl, Dec. 27: Air Force from -1.5 to -3 vs. Washington State.
Camping World Bowl, Dec. 28: Notre Dame -3.5 vs. Iowa State, no move.
Cotton Bowl, Dec. 28: Penn State from -9.5 to -7 vs. Memphis.
* Peach Bowl, Dec. 28: Louisiana State from -11 to -13 vs. Oklahoma.
* Fiesta Bowl, Dec. 28: Clemson from -1 to -2 vs. Ohio State.
First Responder Bowl, Dec. 30: Western Kentucky from -1 to -3.5 vs. Western Michigan.
Music City Bowl, Dec. 30: Mississippi State -3.5 vs. Louisville, no move.
Redbox Bowl, Dec. 30: California from -7 to -6, back to -7 vs. Illinois.
Orange Bowl, Dec. 30: Florida from -14 to -13.5, back to -14 vs. Virginia.
Belk Bowl, Dec. 31: Virginia Tech -3 vs. Kentucky, no move.
Sun Bowl, Dec. 31: Arizona State from -2.5 to -4.5 vs. Florida State.
Liberty Bowl, Dec. 31: Navy from -1.5 to -2.5 vs. Kansas State.
Arizona Bowl, Dec. 31: Wyoming from -7.5 to 7 vs. Georgia State.
Alamo Bowl, Dec. 31: Utah from -10 to -8 vs. Texas.
Rose Bowl, Jan. 1: Wisconsin from -3.5 to -3 vs. Oregon.
Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1: Georgia from -9 to -7.5 vs. Baylor.
Birmingham Bowl, Jan. 2: Cincinnati from -4.5 to -7 vs. Boston College.
Gator Bowl, Jan. 2: Tennessee -1.5 vs. Indiana, no move.
Potato Bowl, Jan. 3: Ohio from -7 to -7.5 vs. Nevada.
Armed Forces Bowl, Jan. 4: Tulane from -7.5 to -7 vs. Southern Mississippi.
LendingTree Bowl, Jan 6: Louisiana-Lafayette from -14.5 to -14 vs. Miami-Ohio.

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Buffalo vs Charlotte college football picks and Bahamas Bowl predictions

The Buffalo Bulls are betting favorites in their Bahamas Bowl clash with the Charlotte 49ers.

Don't let those defensive metrics fool you: The Buffalo Bulls are much more than a one-dimensional team as they head to Nassau for a Bahamas Bowl showdown with the Charlotte 49ers on December 20.

The Bulls earned a bowl berth largely on the strength of their top-10 defense, but showed their offensive chops down the stretch by scoring 43+ points in four of their final five games.

We break down the odds for this bowl game with our best bets and predictions.
Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl: Thomas Robinson Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas

Buffalo Bulls vs. Charlotte 49ers (+6.5, 57)

SPREAD BET

You could make a legitimate case that the Bulls are being short-changed by oddsmakers after looking like the best team in the MAC over the final two months of the season. Buffalo overcame an ice-cold start by finishing 5-1 SU in their final six games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests – and the covers were emphatic, with the Bulls winning each of those five games by at least 19 points.

Charlotte comes in having won five consecutive games (with a 4-1 ATS mark in that span) but is lacking where it matters most, ranking 99th in the country in run defense (192.8 yards per game). We like the Bulls to cover.

PICK: Buffalo -6.5

TOTAL BET

These teams finished their respective regular seasons with eerily similar SU, ATS and O/U records, along with identical home and away marks. But it's the totals similarity that we're keying in on here, with both teams cashing the Over in eight of their 12 games this season.

However, that's where the similarities end, with the 49ers having converted the Under in four of their past six games and Buffalo on a red-hot 5-0 O/U run. Both teams have proven capable of putting up points this season, and with Bahamas Bowl participants having produced 65+ points three times in its five-year history, we're keen on this one being a high-scoring affair.

PICK: Over 57

ALTERNATE BET

Given the first two picks in this preview, we're fairly confident that the Bulls will be able to surpass their team point total. But while you're welcome to bet that one, we have another pick in mind for this section – and it's based on the Bulls' red zone defense.

Buffalo was simply sensational when opposing teams reached their 20-yard line, limiting foes to just 20 touchdowns and seven field goals in 39 red-zone opportunities; that 69.2-percent opponent success rate is sixth-lowest in the country. Charlotte scored on more than 90 percent of its red-zone trips, but could struggle against a stout Buffalo defense.

PICK: Charlotte Under team total

TRENDS TO WATCH

• Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.

• Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 neutral site games.

• 49ers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games.

• Over is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 non-conference games.


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Utah State vs Kent State college football picks and Frisco Bowl predictions

The Kent State Golden Flashes are underdogs in their Frisco Bowl clash with the Utah State Aggies.

Kent State is back in a bowl game for the first time in seven years – and it'll face stiff competition as it tangles with Utah State in Frisco, Texas on December 20.

The Golden Flashes rode a late-season scoring surge to just their fourth bowl appearance in program history, and will look to knock off an Aggies team that underachieved for most of the season.

We break down the odds for this bowl game with our best bets and predictions.
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas

Utah State Aggies vs. Kent State Golden Flashes (+7, 65)

SPREAD BET

Utah State might have the more talented team – and play in the more competitive conference – but Kent State does have one major advantage it could very well leverage to an upset victory. The Golden Flashes were one of the most responsible teams in the country with the football, ranking seventh in Division I with just 11 turnovers; its two interceptions were third-fewest in the nation.

While the Aggies finished 12th in the nation in turnovers forced with 23, they gave it up 23 times themselves, ranking among the worst offenders in college football in that category. Kent State might not win, but it should cover.

PICK: Kent State +7

TOTAL BET

It's reasonable to expect both sides to threaten a big score here; Kent State scored 30+ points in five of its final six games overall, while Utah State finished in the Top-50 nationally in total offense despite facing a handful of difficult opponents.

There are other factors working in both teams' favor, as well: both teams rank inside the top 40 in third-down conversion rate but are in the bottom-20 in third-down conversion defense. Both teams also rank below the national average in red-zone success rate against. Just about any way you look at it, this one could be decided by which team gets to 40 points first.

PICK: Over 65

ALTERNATE BET

Don't be surprised to see the Golden Flashes get off to a lightning-fast start (pardon the pun.) Kent State has scored 17 or more first-half points in three of its previous four games, highlighted by a 24-point first-half eruption in a 34-26 road victory over Central Michigan to close out its MAC campaign.

That aligns well with Utah State's recent first-half defensive struggles; the Aggies have surrendered a whopping 87 first-half points over their previous three games, with 73 coming in their final two games of the season. Utah State might be able to adjust at the half, but Kent State is a good bet to make some waves before the break.

PICK: Kent State Over 1H team total

TRENDS TO WATCH

• Aggies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.

• Under is 7-0 in Aggies last 7 bowl games.

• Golden Flashes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

• Under is 4-1 in Golden Flashes last 5 non-conference games.

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Bowl Tech Trends - Week 1
Bruce Marshall

Friday, Dec. 20

Matchup Skinny
Edge

BUFFALO vs. CHARLOTTE (Bahamas Bowl)...MAC teams struggled again vs. line in bowls LY (2-4), though Buffalo did cover 6 of last 7 this season. Charlottte won last five SU (4-1 vs. line n those). Both teams “over” 8-4 this season, and Bulls “over” 18-8 since 2018.
“Over” based on “totals” trends.


KENT STATE vs. UTAH STATE (Frisco Bowl)...First Golden Flashes bowl since 2012. Utags a bit disappointing this season but were 5-2 as chalk. Kent State covered last 4 and 6 of last 7 TY, and was 6-2 as dog.
Slight to Kent State, based on recent trends.


Saturday, December 21

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at SAN DIEGO STATE (New Mexico Bowl)...Aztecs “under” 12-1 since last 2018. SDSU also 4-1 “under” its last five bowls. Aztecs 5-1 SU away in 2019 but just 4-11 as chalk since LY (0-8 in 2018). Jim McElwain covered 9 of last 11 this season and 5 of last 6 as dog.
Slight to CMU and “under,” based on team and ‘totals” trends.


LIBERTY vs. GEORGIA SOUTHERN (Cure Orlando Bowl)...First-ever bowl for Liberty. Flames covered 7 of last 10 this season but just 2-3 as dog. GS only 2-4 vs. spread away from Statesboro in 2019, and Eagles “over” 13-6 since midway in 2018.
“Over” based on “totals” trends.


SMU at FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Boca Raton Bowl)...SMU cooled off down stretch after covering first five TY, only 3-4 vs. spread last seven. Though mustangs were 5-1 SU vs. line away this season. FAU 7-2 vs. spread last nine in 2019, also won and covered 4 of last 5 at Boca Raton. Mustangs 9-3 “over” in 2019.
FAU and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs. ARKANSAS STATE (Camellia Bowl)...FIU was only 4-8 vs. lin3 this season but did cover last two, after 10-3 spread success a year ago. Butch Davis 2-3 as dog TY after 10-4 mark in role previous two seasons. Ark State 2-5 as chalk this season and just 1-4 SU and vs. spread in bowls past five years.
Slight to FIU, based on extended trends.


WASHINGTON vs. BOISE STATE (Las Vegas Bowl)... Huskies 5-1 vs. line last six outside of Pac and 7-3 as chalk in 2019 Petersen 2-3 vs. line in bowls with Huskies. Boise has won and covered 3 of last 4 bowls and Harsin 5-1 last six as dog. Also 24-11 vs. number last 35 away from home since 2015. MW has won and covered last 3 LV Bowls.
Slight to Boise State, based on team trends.


UAB vs. APPALACHIAN STATE (New Orleans Bowl)...UAB only 2-4 vs. spread away from Legion Field TY and 0-3 as dog after 9-4 mark getting points in 2017-18. App 9-4 vs. spread TY, 22-10-1 vs. line since late 2017. Mounties also 5-1 vs. line away TY.
Slight to App State, based on team trends.


Monday, December 23

MARSHALL vs. UCF (Gasparilla Bowl)...UCF dropped 7 of last 9 vs. line TY and 4 of last 5 away from Orlando. Though Knights 7-8-1 vs. spread previous two seasons (counting a W for Cincy game in 2017). Herd only 9-16 vs. line past two seasons but Doc Holliday is 10-3 as dog since 2017 (2-1 TY)and MU has won and covered its last seven bowls (Doc 6-0).
Marshall, based on team trends.

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Thursday’s 6-pack

Teams getting highest %age of their points on 3’s:

6) Elon 42.2%

5) Binghamton 42.4%

4) Wofford 43.9%

3) Virginia Tech 44.9%

2) VMI 45.8%

1) North Florida 46.2%

Quote of the Day:
“Mike Tyson said it best: Every time he went in the ring, he was scared to death. Now once competition starts, your confidence comes from your preparation. But you can be confident and still have some fear in you, man. Like, I’m scared to death of Eastern Illinois. Fear is one of your biggest motivators, man.”
Texas Tech basketball coach Chris Beard

Friday’s quiz
CBS/FS1 basketball analyst Bill Raftery was once the basketball coach at which Big East school?

Thursday’s quiz
Other than Dak Prescott, Kellen Moore was the last QB to start for the Dallas Cowboys; he is the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator now.

Wednesday’s quiz
2012 was the last time there was a Final Four without a team seeded 5th or lower in a region.

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Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here……

13) Memphis Tigers’ freshman C James Wiseman declared for the NBA Draft, so his college career is over, almost before it started. Wiseman played three games for Memphis.

12) NBA needs to re-instate the rule in where kids can go right from high school to the NBA, then kids who want to play college ball will do that, and other kids can gamble on their future by going straight to the pros.

12) Auburn 79, NC State 73— Wolfpack PG Johnson has the ball A LOT, but if you’re going to dominate the ball, you can’t go 4-10 on foul line in a close, physical game. This was an NCAA tournament-style game, and Auburn remains unbeaten, avenging LY’s loss to NC State.

11) ESPN had the NC State-Auburn game Thursday; Jimmy Dykes was the analyst, and in the first half, Auburn football coach Gus Malzahn was a guest on the broadcast.

Turns out that 25 years ago, Dykes was the AD at Shiloh Christian School in Arkansas and he had to hire a football coach. He hired Malzahn, and the two have been friends since. Imagine going from being a high school coach to making seven figures coaching in the SEC?

10) Rockets 122, Clippers 117— LA had 69 points at halftime, leading by 15, but Rockets stormed back and outscored Clippers 36-18 in 3rd quarter. Harden had 28 points, 10 assists; Capela was +27 in 39:00, meaning Rockets were outscored by 22 points in 9:00 he sat out.

9) Seton Hall 52, Maryland 48— Red flag for Maryland, since Pirates were playing without their two best players. Terps shot 29% inside arc, 5-21 on arc. Not good.

8) Major league pitcher Wade Miley got pounded at the end of last season, after being pretty good prior to September; one day in late September he gets a text from a former teammate, which says: “Check your glove”

Turns out Miley was tipping his pitches, and the former teammate could see it. Miley signed a two-year deal with the Reds this winter; we’ll see if that was the only problem he had.

7) Baseball stuff:
— Brewers gave 2B Eric Sogard a 1-year, $4.5M deal, 1B Justin Smoak to a 1-year, $5M deal.
— Angels signed P Julio Teheran to a 1-year, $9M deal.

6) Stanford QB K.J. Costello has entered the NCAA transfer portal; he started 25 games for the Cardinal the last three years- he’ll be a graduate transfer.

5) Owners of pro teams shouldn’t be eligible for the Hall of Fame in that sport; those honors should be reserved for players, coaches, front office people. George Halas would be one of the exceptions, since he also played/coached.

4) Dallas Mavericks’ owner Mark Cuban is trying to learn Slovenian, Luka Doncic’s native language. Thats when you know you’re a big star, when your boss learns a new language because he wants you to stick around.

3) The last time a team won consecutive basketball games at Duke/North Carolina was way back in 1975, when a Maryland team led by John Lucas/Brad Davis pulled it off.

2) Citadel 102, Longwood 99, 3OT— There were 84 3’s taken in this game, 78 2’s; Citadel was down 5 in second OT. Longwood took 16 FT’s in a 55:00 game; Kaelon Harris of Citadel was 13-14 by himself, in 48:00.

1) Oklahoma City Thunder players were among people evacuated from an Oklahoma City **** Thursday when an isolated shooting took place at the Penn Square ****- a man was shot at the Foot Locker at the shopping complex.

The shooting victim was in critical but stable condition after being shot in the chest.

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Friday's Bowl Tip Sheet
Brian Edwards

The Bowl Season starts Friday with a doubleheader. The action starts in the Bahamas, where Buffalo out of the MAC will face Charlotte from Conference USA. The night game is the Frisco Bowl in Texas, where Utah State out of the Mountain West Conference will take on Kent State from the MAC. Let’s break down both games before getting into some Bonus Nuggets…

Bahamas Bowl (ESPN, 2:00 p.m.)
Buffalo vs. Charlotte

-- As of early Thursday morning, most books had Buffalo (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 52. The 49ers were +200 on the money line. For first-half wagers, the Bulls were 3.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 26.

-- Buffalo is bowling for the fourth time in program history and is in the postseason in back-to-back years for the first time. The Bulls are 0-3 both SU and ATS in three bowl games, however, including a 42-32 loss to Troy as one-point favorites at last year’s Dollar General Bowl.

-- Lance Leipold’s team returned only five starters on offense and three on defense. Star QB Tyree Jackson turned pro a year early, starting WR K.J. Osborn grad transferred to Miami and starting TE Tyler Mabry grad transferred to Maryland. Jackson was the 2018 MAC Offensive Player of the Year and Osborn was a second-team All-MAC selection in ’18. Nevertheless, Buffalo won five of its last six games by double-digit margins to earn another trip to the postseason.

-- Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games. The only outright defeats during this span are a 30-27 loss at Kent State and a 21-20 overtime loss to Ohio as a three-point home underdog. The Bulls got a quality non-conference victory in Week 4 on Sept. 21, drilling Temple 38-22 as 14-point home underdogs. They led 10-7 at Penn State early in the third quarter until the Nittany Lions got a pick-six to swing the momentum their way for good. PSU would win 45-13 and even cover by a hook as a 31.5-point home favorite, but the stats told a story of a misleading final score. Buffalo had a 22-14 advantage in first downs and a 429-357 edge in total offense.

-- Buffalo sophomore RB Jaret Patterson rushed for 1,013 yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, as a freshman in 2018. He garnered second-team All-MAC honors. Patterson was the catalyst in UB’s 49-7 home win over Bowling Green in the regular-season finale, producing 298 rushing yards and six TDs on 26 carries. He earned first-team All-MAC honors this year, rushing for 1,626 yards and 17 TDs with a 5.8 YPC average. Patterson also had 13 receptions for 209 yards and one TD. He’s joined by teammate, senior OT Evin Ksiezarczyk, as a first-team All-MAC choice.

-- Two other Buffalo offensive linemen, junior OT Kayode Awosika and senior OG Paul Nosworthy, were second-team All-MAC picks. In addition, junior WR Antonio Nunn garnered third-team All-MAC honors after catching 44 balls for 634 yards and five TDs.

-- Buffalo had the MAC’s best defense, limiting opponents to an average of just 22.3 points per game. This unit is ranked sixth in the nation in total defense, fourth against the run and No. 21 versus the pass. The defensive leaders are senior free safety Joey Banks and junior DEs Taylor Riggins and Malcolm Koonce. All three earned first-team All-MAC honors. Banks had a team-best 76 tackles (52 solo), 3.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions for 70 return yards and one TD, one sack and one forced fumble. Riggins recorded 44 tackles (23 solo), 8.5 sacks, six QB hurries, 1.5 TFL’s, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery, while Koonce produced 29 tackles, seven sacks, four QB hurries, two TFL’s and two forced fumbles.

-- There were three Buffalo players selected as second-team All-MAC members, including OLB Kadofi Wright (17 solo tackles, 11 assists, two interceptions, two sacks, one forced fumble and one pick-six), DL Ledarius Mack (14 solo tackles, five assists, seven sacks, four TFL’s, three forced fumbles and one 35-yard scoop-and-score TD) and junior strong safety Tyrone Hill (47 solo tackles, 18 assists, nine passes broken up and 2.5 TFL’s).

-- Buffalo sophomore QB Matt Myers went down with a season-ending injury on Sept. 28. He was completing merely 46.7 percent of his throws for 602 yards with a 6/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Since then, the Bulls are 5-2 with third-year sophomore Kyle Vantrease as their starting signal caller. Again, the two defeats were by four combined points. Vantrease has connected on 60.0 percent of his passes for 1,116 yards with a 7/1 TD-INT ratio. He also has five rushing TDs.

-- Buffalo is +2 in turnover margin, coughing up eight turnovers and getting 10 takeaways.

-- Charlotte (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) didn’t even start its football program until 2013, so it’s no surprise that this is the school’s first appearance in a bowl game. The 49ers bring a five-game winning streak to the Bahamas, and they’re 4-1 ATS in that span.

-- After six seasons at the helm, Brad Lambert was replaced by Will Healy as Charlotte’s new head coach. The 33-year-old Healy in the second youngest FBS head coach. His team is off a 38-22 win at Old Dominion as a 10.5-point ‘chalk’ in the regular-season finale. Senior RB Benny LeMay was the catalyst, rushing for 105 yards and two TDs on 18 carries. Sophomore QB Chris Reynolds completed 9-of-12 passes for 166 yards and two TDs with one interception. Reynolds also had 96 rushing yards on 11 attempts.

-- Charlotte went 4-4 ATS with three outright wins in eight games as an underdog. The 49ers failed to cover the number in losses by double-digit margins at Clemson (52-10), vs. FAU (45-27), at FIU (48-23) and at Western Kentucky (30-14). However, they’ve won outright in their last three games as home puppies, beating North Texas (39-38), Middle Tennessee (34-20) and Marshall (24-13) at Jerry Richardson Stadium.

-- Reynolds, who started six games as a freshman in 2018, has connected on 62.2 percent of his passes for 2,366 yards with a 21/10 TD-INT ratio. He also has 757 rushing yards, six TDs and a 5.4 YPC average. LeMay, a first-team All-C-USA selection, ranks second in school history in career rushing yards (3,002). He’s run for 1,027 yards this year, averaging 5.7 YPC with nine rushing scores. LeMay has 19 catches for 242 yards and four TDs.

-- Sophomore WR Victor Tucker leads Charlotte with 49 receptions for 848 yards and two TDs. Sophomore WR Cameron Dollar has 37 catches for 551 yards and two TDs, while junior WR Tyler Ringwood has snagged 20 balls for 331 yards and five TDs.

-- The Charlotte defense is led by senior DE Alex Highsmith, who garnered first-team All-C-USA honors for the second straight season. Highsmith had 40 solo tackles, 28 assists, 14 sacks (second in the nation), 7.5 TFL’s, eight QB hurries, three PBU and one forced fumble. Sophomore DE Markees Watts had 28 solo stops, 23 assists, 9.5 sacks, six QB hurries, three TFL’s and three forced fumbles.

-- Charlotte senior safety Marquavis Gibbs (undisclosed) and senior LB Jeff Gemmell (ankle) are both listed as ‘questionable’ vs. Buffalo. Gibbs produced a team-high 94 tackles (48 solo), four PBU, two QB hurries, one TFL and 0.5 sacks, while Gemmell contributed 80 tackles (33 solo), 5.5 TFL’s, two PBU, one interception, one sack, one QB hurry and one forced fumble.

-- Buffalo redshirt freshman RB Dylan McDuffie is suspended vs. Kent State. In seven games, he ran 23 times for 150 rushing yards, and McDuffie also had three catches for 25 yards and one TD.

-- The ‘over’ has hit in five consecutive Buffalo games to improve to 8-4 overall. The last five combined scores have produced 56, 79, 57, 57 and 63 points.

-- The ‘over’ is 8-4 overall for the 49ers, but they’ve seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 in their last six contests.

-- The forecast in Nassau from weather.com indicates rain on Thursday night and early Friday morning, so the field conditions could be a little wet. However, by game time, there’s only a 25-percent chance of rain with temperatures in the upper 70s. The thing to watch, though, is the wind, which is expected to be blowing at 25 miles per hour.

-- Kickoff on ESPN is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern.


Frisco Bowl (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)
Kent State at Utah State

-- This is the Tropical Smoothie Café Frisco Bowl that’s played in Frisco, Texas. As of Thursday morning, most books had Utah State (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) listed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 67.5. The Golden Flashes were +200 on the money line.

-- When Matt Wells left to take the Texas Tech job after leading the Aggies to a second double-digit win total during his six-year tenure, Utah State hired its old coach Gary Andersen for a second tour of duty in Logan. Andersen had led the Aggies to an 11-2 record in 2012 during the Chuckie Keeton Era, helping him get the Wisconsin job. However, after posting a 20-7 record for the Badgers in 2013 and ’14, he abruptly left to take an inferior job at Oregon State. Andersen ended up quitting on the Beavers in the middle of his third season when they were 1-5 for the year and 7-23 overall on his watch.

-- Utah State finished 2018 with an 11-2 SU record and a 9-3-1 ATS ledger, but it returned only two starters from an offense that averaged 47.5 PPG. The good news was that one of the starters coming back was junior QB Jordan Love, a second-team All-MWC pick last season when he threw for 3,567 yards with a stellar 32/6 TD-INT ratio. Love and leading rusher Gerold Bright were arrested this past weekend for misdemeanor possession of marijuana. Nevertheless, according to an ESPN report from Wednesday night, Love and Bright practiced Wednesday and are NOT going to be suspended vs. Kent State.

-- Utah State won three of its last four games both SU and ATS, including a 38-25 win at New Mexico as a 12-point road favorite in its regular-season finale. The Aggies led 31-6 at intermission, only to see the Lobos score two TDs to cut the deficit to 31-18 midway through the third quarter. But Love hit Siaosi Mariner with a 10-yard scoring strike with 2:43 left in the third to put the icing on the cake. Love completed 18-of-35 throws for 172 yards and three TDs with one interception. Bright ran 19 times for 113 rushing yards and one TD.

-- Love has already declared for the NFL Draft, although there are conflicting reports that if he doesn’t like the feedback he gets from the league, leaving Logan via the grad-transfer route (possibly to reunite with Wells at Texas Tech) could be a possibility. Whatever the case, Love was unable to match his production from 2018 this year. He’s completed 60.6 percent of his passes for 3,085 yards with a 17/16 TD-INT ratio.

-- Bright has run for 827 yards and eight TDs, averaging 5.1 YPC. He has 31 receptions for 207 yards and one TD. Juco transfer RB Jaylen Warren has run for 561 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC. He has 14 catches for 156 yards. Mariner is Love’s favorite target, hauling in 56 receptions for 874 yards and eight TDs. He garnered second-team All-MWC honors. Jordan Nathan is another reliable target who has 47 catches for 510 yards and one TD.

-- Although he went down with a season-ending knee injury in late October and played in just seven games, junior LB David Woodward still recorded a team-best 93 tackles (53 solo), four forced fumbles, three TFL’s, two sacks, two PBU and one fumble recovery that he return eight yards for a scoop-and-score TD. Since Woodward’s injury, the Aggies have given up 35.8 PPG in their past five contests. He was a first-team All-MWC selection in 2018 when he had 134 tackles, 7.5 TFL’s, five sacks, four QB hurries, three PBU, two forced fumbles and two interceptions. Like Love, Woodward has already declared early for the 2020 NFL Draft. He was the only Utah State defensive player chosen as a first-team All-MWC selection.

-- Two Utah State players earned first-team All-MWC honors for their work on special teams, including placekicker Dominik Eberle and kick returner Savon Scarver. Eberle made all 40 of his extra-point attempts and 19-of-22 field-goal attempts. Scarver returned 19 kicks for 557 yards, with a long of 100 yards and an average of 29.3 yards per return.

-- This is Utah State’s eighth trip to the postseason in the last nine seasons. The Aggies are 5-8 in 13 bowl games in program history, but they trounced North Texas 52-13 as 7.5-point favorites in last year’s New Mexico Bowl.

-- Kent State (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) brings a three-game winning streak to Texas, a surge that got the team into the postseason for the first time since 2012. Even better, Sean Lewis’s squad has covered the spread in four consecutive games and is 6-1 versus the number in its last seven contests. After going 2-10 in Lewis’s first campaign as HC in ’18, the Golden Flashes improved by four games.

-- Kent State has thrived in the underdog role, compiling a 6-2 spread record with three outright victories. In non-conference play, the Golden Flashes took the money in a 30-7 loss at Arizona State as 24.5-point underdogs in the season opener. However, they were on the wrong side both SU and ATS in losses at Auburn (55-16) and at Wisconsin (48-0).

-- Needing to win out to get bowl eligible, Lewis’s bunch started its run with a 30-27 win over Buffalo as a six-point home underdog. Next, Kent State won a 41-38 decision over Ball State as a three-point home hound. Then in the regular-season finale, the Golden Flashes darted out to a 24-14 halftime lead at Eastern Michigan. They extended the advantage to 31-14 when Jamal Parker returned the opening kick of the second half 96 yards to paydirt. The Eagles would rally, but Kent State hung on for a 34-26 triumph as a four-point road ‘dog. Junior QB Dustin Crum rushed 13 times for 51 yards and a pair of TDs at EMU. He also completed 17-of-23 throws for 197 yards. Junior free safety Keith Sherald had five solo tackles, six assists and two interceptions.

-- Crum enjoyed a breakout campaign. He leads the MAC and is 16th in the country in QB rating (156.07), placing him ahead of QBs like Jayden Daniels, Sam Ehlinger, Cole McDonald, Shea Patterson, Jake Fromm, Kelly Bryant, Jamie Newman, Jacob Eason, Sean Clifford, Shane Buechele, Ian Book and Jack Abraham (among many others!). Crum has completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 2,333 yards with an 18/2 TD-INT ratio. He’s also the Golden Flashes’ leading rusher with 560 yards, five TDs and a 3.9 YPC average.

-- Crum’s favorite targets are WRs Isaiah McKoy and Mike Carrigan, who both earned third-team All-MAC honors. McKoy had 51 receptions for 767 yards and seven TDs, while Carrigan had 38 catches for 534 yards and five TDs. Senior WR Kavious Price had 47 grabs for 504 yards and three TDs.

-- Kent State’s special-teams units are a strength. Placekicker Matthew Trickett was a first-team All-MAC selection for the second straight season and was named the MAC’s Special Teams Player of the Year. Trickett buried 24-of-29 field-goal attempts and led the MAC with 107 total points. His 24 made FGAs were second-best in the country. Also, punter Derek Adams was a third-team All-MAC choice, averaging 43.3 yards per punt.

-- Kent State is 0-3 SU in the program’s only three postseason appearances. In the 2012 GoDaddy.com Bowl, The Golden Flashes lost a 17-13 decision to Arkansas State as 3.5-point underdogs.

-- ESPN2 will have Friday night’s broadcast at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

-- According to weather.com, rain showers are in the forecast in Frisco for Friday night. Temperatures will be in the mid-40s at kickoff and move into the low 40s as the game progresses. Winds are predicted to be five miles per hour.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

-- Boise State is a 3.5-point underdog in Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl vs. Washington at Sam Boyd Stadium. Since taking over at BSU for Chris Petersen, UW’s head coach who shockingly resigned earlier this month, Harsin has compiled a 7-0 spread record with five outright wins in seven games as an underdog (with the late line move on game day last year, the Broncos closed as short favorites in their blowout loss at Oklahoma State). Washington will be without OT Trey Adams, who was a first-team All-American selection in 2017, and star TE Hunter Bryant, who are both skipping the game to stay healthy for the 2020 NFL Draft. Bryant has 52 receptions for 828 yards and three TDs. With Adams ‘out,’ Boise State junior DE Curtis Weaver should be able to cause problems galore for Washington QB Jacob Eason. Weaver is fifth in the nation in sacks with 13.5.

-- Former South Carolina QB Jake Bentley has transferred to Utah, where he’s the likely starting QB in 2020 replacing Tyler Huntley. As for former Florida QB Feleipe Franks, he reportedly visited Kansas this past weekend. KU head coach Les Miles was still at LSU when Franks verbally committed to the Tigers early in the recruiting process. Former UF head coach Jim McElwain eventually was able to flip Franks to UF.

-- LSU star RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire sustained a hamstring injury at Tuesday’s practice. At a presser Wednesday night in Baton Rouge, Ed Orgeron said Edwards-Helaire will be evaluated further in the coming days. I would say he’s closer to ‘doubtful’ than ‘questionable’ for the Dec. 28 Peach Bowl showdown against Oklahoma. If LSU advances (it will with or without Edwards-Helaire), I’m guessing his availability vs. the Ohio State-Clemson winner in the College Playoff finals is also a question mark. Edwards-Helaire is the SEC’s leader in all-purpose yards with 1,903. He has 1,290 rushing yards, 16 TDs and a 6.6 YPC average.

-- The Athletic confirmed an initial report from SoonerScoop on Wednesday that three Oklahoma players are suspended for the CFP semifinals vs. LSU after testing positive for weed. The trio includes DE Ronnie Perkins, who has team-highs in TFL’s (13.5) and sacks (six), and backup RB Rhamondre Stevenson, who has 515 rushing yards and six TDs.

-- Here are some key players that are bucking the trend and playing in their team’s bowl games (how refreshing!) rather than skip out to stay healthy for the 2020 NFL Draft: Utah RB Zack Moss, Auburn DE Derrick Brown, Oklahoma State RB Chuba Hubbard (the nation’s leading rusher) and Florida DE Jonathan Greenard.

-- On the flip side, players skipping their bowls to stay healthy include Florida CB and three-time All-SEC selection C.J. Henderson, Georgia OT Andrew Thomas, Minnesota LB Kamal Martin, FSU RB Cam Akers, Arizona State WR Brandon Aiyuk, Miami WR Jeff Thomas, Alabama LB Terrell Lewis and DB Trevon Diggs, Texas A&M DL Justin Madubuike, UCF QB Brandon Wimbush, Boston College RB A.J. Dillon, Washington TE Hunter Bryant and OT Trey Adams, Miami DE Trevon Hill and DL Jonathan Garvin and Mississippi State CB Cameron Dantzler. -- Here are some players that I anticipate skipping their bowl games but have yet to announce either way: Arizona State RB Eno Benjamin, Georgia RB De’Andre Swift and Alabama WRs Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith and Henry Ruggs, in addition to ‘Bama RB Najee Harris. Swift is considered by many as the best RB in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he stated on social media earlier this week that he won’t announce a decision about possibly leaving school early until after the Sugar Bowl.

-- Georgia OT Isaiah Wilson has announced he’s turning pro early, but his social-media post declaring for the Draft didn’t specifically state whether he’d be in uniform against Baylor in New Orleans or not. Kirby Smart’s other OT Thomas, a fourth-team All-American in 2018 and a first-team All-SEC pick this year, won’t be playing in the Sugar Bowl. The Bulldogs will be without WRs Lawrence Cager (ankle) and Dominick Blaylock (torn ACL) due to injuries.

-- SMU WR Reggie Roberson Jr. announced this week that he’s returning to the Mustangs for his senior campaign. However, the lower-body injury that kept him out of SMU’s last four regular-season games has him ‘questionable’ at FAU in Saturday’s Boca Raton Bowl. Roberson had 52 catches for 802 yards and six TDs in eight games this year. He also returned five kicks for 206 yards and one TD.

-- David Shaw had won at least eight games in each of the first eight year of his tenure, winning nine or more seven times. But the Cardinal limped to a 4-8 record this season and since the regular-season finale, THIRTEEN players have entered the transfer portal! QB K.J. Costello became the 13th on Wednesday. Costello had an injury-plagued 2019 campaign after earning second-team All-PAC-12 honors in ’18. The lone bright spot for Stanford is that OT Walker Little, who was a preseason first-team All-American and projected first-round pick, has decided to return to school. Little dislocated his knee in the season opener vs. Northwestern (remember that Bad Beat from Hell for Northwestern backers?!) and missed the rest of the year.

-- Florida is a 14-point favorite vs. Virginia in the Orange Bowl. The Gators are 5-0 ATS as double-digit favorites this year, 8-1 ATS as double-digit ‘chalk’ since Dan Mullen took over as HC. UF will be making its fourth appearance in the Orange Bowl. Steve Spurrier won the Heisman Trophy in 1966 and helped UF to a 27-12 win over Georgia Tech on Jan. 2 of 1967. On the same date (Jan. 2) exactly 35 years later, I had the absolute honor of slamming Budweisers galore (Hat Tip to Curtis Hazel for my ticket!) and watching in-person as the Gators destroyed Maryland 56-23 in the last game Spurrier coached for his alma mater. He resigned two days later to pursue an NFL head-coaching gig. In the 1999 Orange Bowl, UF took Syracuse and Donovan McNabb behind the woodshed in a 31-10 victory. Travis Taylor was named Orange Bowl MVP after making seven catches for 159 yards, including a pair of TD grabs from Doug Johnson in the first quarter. I was also in attendance at Dolphin Stadium (currently Hard Rock, formerly Joe Robbie, Pro Player, Sun Life and Land Shark Stadiums) on Jan. 8 of 2009 when Florida beat Oklahoma 24-14 to win the BCS Championship. The Gators have three national titles in the program’s football history, but none since that night in South Florida against the Sooners nearly 11 years ago.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 2
Bruce Marshall

Tuesday, December 24

Matchup Skinny
Edge

BYU at HAWAII (Hawaii Bowl)...Sitake no covers last 3 or 7 of last 9 in 2019 and Cougs had covered 15 of previous 21. Rolovich 4-4 vs. spread at Aloha TY but was just 6-14-1 vs. line previous three years as host. Bows 1-4 SU and vs. line last five bowls dating to 2007 season.
BYU, based on team trends.



Thursday, December 26

MIAMI-FLA. vs. LA TECH (Independence Bowl)...Canes 2-6 as chalk TY, as dogs were 10-2 vs. line in Miami games. Miami has also failed to cover in 4 of last 6 bowls. Skip Holtz 18-8-1 as dog since 2014. Holtz also 5-0 SU, 4-1 in bowls with Bulldogs.
La Tech, based on team trends.


PITT vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN (Quick Lane Bowl)...Pitt 0-4 SU, 1-3 vs. spread last four bowls. Narduzzi 1-5-1 as DD chalk since 2016, but did cover 4 of 5 away TY. EMU 4-2-1 vs. line away from Ypsilanti this season, now 21-6-1 away from home since 2016, and 20-5-2 as dog since 2016. Note Panthers “under” 13-3 since late 2018.
EMU and “under” based on team and “totals” trends.



Friday, December 27

NORTH CAROLINA vs. TEMPLE (Military Bowl)... Mack Brown just 2-3-1 as chalk this year, 2-3 vs. spread away from Chapel Hill. Owls covered last 4 in 2019 in 8-4 spread season, 4-2 as dog, though Rod Carey was 0-6 SU and vs. spread in bowls with NIU.
UNC, based on Carey bowl marks.


MICHIGAN STATE vs. WAKE FOREST (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...MSU 3-9 vs. line TY, 8-17 vs. spread since 2018, 5-11 as chalk since 2018. Though Dantonio 6-1 vs. spread last seven bowls. Clawson 3-0 SU in bowls with Wake. Deacs 5-1 vs. line last 6 vs. non-ACC.
Wake Forest, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE vs. TEXAS A&M (Texas Bowl)...Gundy on 12-4 spread uptick since late 2018, has also won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 bowls. OSU also 14-4 as dog since 2015.
Oklahoma State, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN CAL vs. IOWA (Holiday Bowl)...SC no covers last 3 or 5 of last 6 bowls. Helton 1-8 vs. spread last 9 vs. non-Pac 12 foes. Ferentz has won and covered last 2 owls and is 7-4 last 11 in bowl games vs. line, and 9-3-1 vs. spread last 13 away from Iowa City.
Iowa, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON STATE vs. AIR FORCE (Cheez-it Bowl)...Leach no covers last 3 or 4 of last 5 bowl with Cougs. WSU also 4-8 vs. line last 12 vs. non-Pac 12, and just 1-6 vs. spread last 7 away from Pullman. Calhoun 13-3 vs. spread last 16 vs. non-MW foes.
Air Force, based on team trends.



Saturday, December 28

IOWA STATE vs. NOTRE DAME (Camping World Bowl)...ISU dropped 4 of last 5 vs. line TY but was 2-0 as dog, and Matt Campbell now 18-8-1 getting points since taking over Cyclones in 2016. Irish 2-5 vs. spread last 7 bowls.
Iowa State, based on team trends.


MEMPHIS vs. PENN STATE (Cotton Bowl)...Tigers weren’t a dog TY, and 3-3-1 in role since 2017. Memphis 0-4 SU and vs. line last four bowls. James Franklin just 2-4 vs. spread last six this season and 2-2 SU and vs. line last four bowls.
Penn State, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA vs. LSU (CFP Peach Bowl)...OU 4-4 vs. line in last eight bowls, 2-1 last 3 as bowl dog. In rare dog role, OU is 3-1 for Lincoln Riley. LSU 9-4 vs. line TY, 11-4 last 15 on board. Tigers 10-5 “over” since late 2018.
Slight to LSU, based on team trends.


CLEMSON vs. OHIO STATE (CFP Fiesta Bowl)...Dabo 9-1 vs. spread last ten bowl/playoff games since 2012, including pair of wins and covers vs. OSU. Clemson on 13-3 spread run since late 2018. Buckeyes 9-4 vs. line TY, 1-2 vs. spread last three bowls.
Clemson, based on team trends.



Monday, December 30

WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY (First Reponder Dallas Bowl)...WKU 7-2 vs. spread last nine TY for Tyson Helton, and Tops 10-4 vs. spread since late 2018. WMU only 7-14 last 21 vs. spread since early 2018 (5-7 TY), and 1-5 last six as dog. Broncos 1-5 vs. spread last six bowls since 2008.
Western Kentucky, based on team trends.


ILLINOIS vs. CAL (Redbox Bowl)...Cal 1-4 as chalk TY, 2-9-1 in role since LY for Wilcox. Dog team is 13-4-1 last 18 vs. spread in Golden Bears games. Lovie covered 6 of last 7 this season, and Illini is 7-1 last 8 as dog since late 2018.
Illinois, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA vs. FLORIDA (Orange Bowl)...Gators covered last 3 and 7 of last 9 this season, Dan Mullen now on 16-7 spread run since early 2018. Bronco Mendenhall 7-3 as dog since LY, though his BYU & UVa teams just 1-4 vs. spread last five bowls.
Slight to Florida, based on team trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. LOUISVILLE (Music City Bowl)...Joe Moorhead just 4-9 vs. spread last 13 on board, 2-6 last 8 TY. Satterfield now 20-8-1 vs. line since late 2017 at App and ‘Ville. Satterfield teams have covered their last nine non-conference games.
Louisville, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3
Bruce Marshall

Tuesday, December 31

Matchup Skinny
Edge

FLORIDA STATE vs. ARIZONA STATE (Sun Bowl)...Noles on 6-11 spread skid since mid 2018, also just 2-7 last nine as dog. Herm however only 1-5 last six vs. line TY and 4-10 last 14 on board since late LY. Sun Devils 1-4 vs. spread last five bowls.
Slight to Florida State, based on team trends.


KANSAS STATE vs. NAVY (Liberty Bowl)...Cats 9-3 vs. line TY, 6-1 as dog for Klieman. KSU on 15-5 spread run since mid 2018. Mids however on 13-3 spread run, and Niumatalolo has covered last five bowls.
Slight to Navy, based on team trends.


GEORGIA STATE vs. WYOMING (Arizona Bowl)...Bohl on 12-5 run since late 2018, and 2-0 vs. line in bowls with Wyo. Cowboys 6-2 last 8 as chalk, and “under” 10-3 last 13 since late 2018.
Wyoming, based on team trends.


TEXAS vs. UTAH (Alamo Bowl)...Tom Herman only 2-3 as dog TY but still 15-5 in role since 2015 with Houston and UT. Herman also 3-0 SU and vs. line in bowls, and 4-1 vs. spread last five outside of Big 12. Whittingham 8-4 vs. spread in bowls but only 1-2 last three.
Texas, based on team trends.


KENTUCKY vs. VIRGINIA TECH (Belk Bowl)...UK covered last 3 and 5 of last 6 TY, Marc Stoops on 10-4 spread run since late 2018, also now 8-4 last 12 as dog. Cats have covered last two bowl trips and have covered last four vs. non-SEC foes. Hokies covered 5 of last 6 TY but just 1-4 as chalk away from Blacksburg since LY. VPI 1-3 vs. line last four bowls.
Kentucky, based on recent trends.



Wednesday, January 1

MICHIGAN vs. ALABAMA (Citrus Bowl)...Harbaugh covered 5 of last 6 TY but Wolverines 0-3 SU and vs. line last three bowls and Harbaugh just 3-4 in rare dog role since 2015. Michigan also “over” 10-4 since late 2018. Saban 3-7 vs. spread last ten bowls, Tide 7-4 vs. spread last 11 vs. non-SEC, 11-6 “over” since late 2018.
“Over” and slight to Alabama, based on “totals” and team trends.


MINNESOTA vs. AUBURN (Outback Bowl)...Gophers cooled a bit at end of season (0-2-1 vs. line L3) after 9-0 SU break from gate. Fleck however 0-2-1 vs. spread non-league TY. Gophers 3-0 SU and vs. line last three bowls (two of those with Claeys). Gus on 10-3 spread uptick since late 2018, and has covered last six vs. non-SEC.
Slight to Auburn, based on team trends.


WISCONSIN vs. OREGON (Rose Bowl)...Ducks covered 4 of last 5 away from Eugene TY, though hasn’t covered in its last four bowl trips. Badgers 9-5 vs. line since late 2018 and have won and covered in their last five bowls. and 6-1 vs. spread last seven away from Madison.
Wisconsin, based on team trends.


BAYLOR vs. GEORGIA (Sugar Bowl)...Matt Rhule on 13-5 spread run since late 2018, also 8-0 last eight as dog. Dawgs had covered 5 straight bowls/playoffs before loss to Texas In Sugar LY. Kirby Smart also on 12-3 “under” run.
Baylor and “under” based on team and “totals” trends.



Thursday, January 2

BOSTON COLLEGE vs. CINCINNATI (Birmingham Bowl)...Eagles 5-2 as dog in 2019, 13-4-1 getting points since 2017. Also 6-3 last nine vs. spread away from Chestnut Hill. Cincy no covers in last four bowls. Bearcats “under” 10-3 in 2019.
Boston College and slight to “under” based on team and “totals” trends.


TENNESSEE vs. INDIANA (Gator Bowl)...Vols won last 5 SU and were 6-1 vs. spread last 7 in 2019. UT also “under” 12-5 since late 2018. IU 9-6 last 15 on board since late 2018.
Tennessee, based on recent trends.



Friday, January 3

OHIO vs. NEVADA (Potato Bowl)...Solich only 4-8 vs. line TY, but did win and cover big his last two in 2019, and has won and covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 bowls. MAC bowl malaise has not included Ohio (Bobcats 5-2 vs. spread last seven bowls).
Slight to Ohio, based on bowl trends.



Saturday, January 4

TULANE vs. SOUTHERN MISS (Armed Forces Bowl)...USM just 1-3 as dog TY after 7-3 mark past two years in role for Jay Hopson. Golden Eagles 1-5 vs. spread last six bowls. Wave on 9-4 spread uptick since late 2018.
Slight to Tulane, based on team trends.



Monday, January 6

MIAMI-OHIO vs. UL-LAFAYETTE (Alabama Bowl)...RedHawks were 6-3 vs. line last nine TY, but only 4-4 as dog TY after 5-2 mark in role for Chuck Martin LY. Ragin’ Cajuns failed to cover last two TY but were still 9-4 vs. spread TY, and 16-6-2 vs. spread since early 2018.
Slight to ULL, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Early Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

New Mexico Bowl (ESPN, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Central Michigan vs. San Diego State

-- The Central Michigan Chippewas (8-5 straight up, 9-3-1 against the spread) of the Mid-American Conference will face off against the San Diego State Aztecs (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Mountain West Conference in the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque, N.M.

-- The Chippewas will be making their 12th bowl appearance in school history, and first since falling in the Idaho Potato Bowl against Wyoming on Dec. 22, 2017 by a 37-14 score. CMU has dropped four consecutive bowl appearances since topping Kentucky in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl back on Dec. 26, 2012. They're 3-8 SU all-time in bowl games in school history.

-- The Aztecs have posted 17 bowl appearances, going 8-9 in their previous appearances. Like Central Michigan, this will be their first-ever appearance in the New Mexico Bowl. The Aztecs enter on a two-game bowl losing streak, falling in last season's Frisco Bowl against Ohio by a 27-0 score. They topped Houston by a 34-10 score in the Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 17, 2016 for their most recent bowl success.

-- CMU is coming off a disappointing 26-21 loss against Miami-Ohio in the MAC Championship Game at Ford Field on Dec. 7. That loss snapped a three-game win and cover streak to close out the regular season, and the Chips are still 6-2 ATS across the past eight games despite the non-cover vs. Miami. The Chippewas were 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS in four non-conference tilts, including a 42-28 win over New Mexico State in their final non-conference tilts on Oct. 12.

-- San Diego State blew their chance at a conference championship, falling 17-13 against Nevada at home on Nov. 9, and 14-11 at Hawaii on Nov. 23. They scored 20 or fewer points in each of their final five games, while allowing 17 or fewer points in each of their final six. As such, the 'under' connected in each of their final six contests of the regular season. They are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in three non-conference tilts, and these two teams have a common opponent - New Mexico State. The Aztecs spanked the Aggies 31-10 back on Sept. 14 to cover a 16.5-point spread, recording their largest margin of victory of the season.

-- Central Michigan ranks 27th in total yards per game (447.4), 40th in passing yards per game (258.9), 40th in rushing yards per game (188.5) and 44th in points scored (31.9). Defensively the Chips ranked 38th in total yards allowed (351.8), 84th in passing yards allowed (235.2) and 21st in rushing yards allowed (116.7), while checking in 62nd in the country with 26.8 points per game allowed.

-- San Diego State ended up ranked 115th in the nation with 330.1 total yards per game offensively, while finishing 99th in passing yards (194.8) and 99th in rushing yards (135.3). They also posted just 19.0 points per game to finish 119th in the country. On the defensive side of the ball, the Aztecs were dominant, allowing just 288.7 total yards per game to rank fifth, while checking in 53rd with 216.3 passing yards allowed and second with only 72.4 rushing yards per contest. They also yielded only 12.8 PPG to finish fourth in the nation.

-- Aztecs DB Luq Barcoo was tied for second in the country with eight interceptions, while ranking first with 24 passes defensed and he was tied for No. 1 with 16 pass breakups.

-- San Diego State QB Ryan Agnew (calf) is expected to be ready after leaving the regular-season finale due to injury. However, leading RB Juwan Washington (lower body) is a question mark, so RB Chase Jasmin might have to do more of the heavy lifting.

-- Central Michigan is 5-1 ATS in the past six non-conference games and 6-2 ATS in the past eight games overall. However, they're 2-5 ATS in the past seven against winning sides and 0-4 ATS in the past four neutal-site games.

-- San Diego State is 5-2 ATS in their past seven games as a favorite, but they're just 5-13 ATS in the past 18 games on a grass surface and 3-8 ATS in their past 11 appearances in the month of December.

-- The Chippewas have hit the over in six of the past eight games overall, and the over is 4-0 in their past four as an underdog. The over is also 4-1 in their past five non-conference tilts.

-- The under has connected in four in a row for the Aztecs as a favorite, and 4-1 in their past five neutral-site battles while going 20-8-1 in the previous 29 non-conference tilts.

-- The under is 4-1 in San Diego State's past five bowl games.

-- Kickoff is slated for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


Cure Bowl (ABC, 2:30 p.m.)
Liberty vs. Georgia Southern

-- The FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl will feature a battle between the independent Liberty Flames (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (7-5 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla.

-- Liberty will be appearing in its first-ever bowl game in just their second-ever season at the FBS level. Head coach Hugh Freeze earned a contract extension on Dec. 10 after securing the historic bowl berth for the Flames.

-- The Eagles are the bowl veterans, although this is just their third-ever postseason appearance. They picked up an exciting 23-21 win over Eastern Michigan in last season's Camellia Bowl. They also blasted Bowling Green by a 58-27 count in the 2005 GoDaddy Bowl, so they've never lost a bowl game in their brief history.

-- Liberty started off the season 0-2 SU/ATS, but rattled off five straight wins to get to the precipice of bowl eligibility in late October. A disappointing loss at Rutgers on Oct. 26 spoiled their momentum, but they routed Massachusetts (who didn't?) by a 63-21 score to gain eligibility in style. They fell at BYU and at Virginia on Nov. 9 and Nov. 23, but crushed New Mexico State by a 49-28 count to end the season on a high note, covering a 14.5-point spread.

-- Georgia Southern opened 1-3 SU in their first four outings of the regular season, and they covered just once in the first six games to open the year. The Eagles recorded their most impressive victory of the season with a 24-21 win at Appalachian State on Halloween night, a treat for Eagles fans everywhere. That also likely spoiled any chance App State had of appearing in the Cotton Bowl, although they were still in the running late.

-- Like CMU and San Diego State above, Liberty and Georgia Southern also had a common opponent in New Mexico State. The Eagles routed NMSU 41-7 to cover a 13.5-point spread on Oct. 26, and Liberty pounded them in the finale as mentioned above.

-- Liberty ranked 34th in the country with 443.3 total yards per game, while also posting 290.5 passing yards per game to end up 21st in the land. They're 32nd in points scored with 33.7, while they struggled with 152.8 rushing yards per game to finish 72nd in the nation. Defensively the Flames were very average, ranking 88th with 422.4 total yards per game allowed, 74th against the pass (229.8), 100th against the run (192.9) and 77th in points allowed (29.1).

-- Georgia Southern was a dismal 112th in total yards per game (333.6), 130th in passing yards per contest (72.8) and 63rd in points scored (29.2). However, the triple-option Eagles rank eighth in the nation with 260.8 rushing yards per contest. The Eagles ranked 53rd in total yards per game allowed 377.3, they were 91st against the pass (240.2) and 38th against the rush (137.1) while yielding 28.6 PPG to check in 72nd in the land.

-- Liberty is 17-7 ATS in the past 24 as an underdog, while going 0-4 ATS in the past four non-conference tilts.

-- Georgia Southern is 1-4 ATS in the past five games following a cover in their most recent appearance.

-- The Flames hit the over in four of the past five games overall, but the under is 5-1 in Liberty's past six games as an underdog.

-- The Eagles hit the over in four of their final five games in the regular season, while the over is 4-1 in the past five against winning teams. The over is also 9-3 in Georgia Southern's past 12 games on a grass surface, while going 5-1 in the past six after a straight-up win and 4-0 in the past four after a cover.

-- Kickoff is slated for 2:30 p.m. Eastern on CBSSN.


Boca Raton Bowl (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
Southern Methodist vs. Florida Atlantic

-- The Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl features a battle between the Southern Methodist Mustangs (10-2 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) of the American Athletic Conference and the Florida Atlantic Owls (10-3 straight up, 9-4 against the spread) of Conference USA at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Fla.

-- SMU has a rich bowl history, and they'll make their first appearance in the Boca Raton Bowl. After going 1-4-1 SU in their first six bowl appearances the Mustangs are 6-4 SU across the past 10 appearances, including 4-2 in the past six. They're 0-1 in their only bowl appearance against a Conference USA foe, falling 51-10 to Louisiana Tech in their most recent bowl showing in the 2017 Frisco Bowl.

-- FAU doesn't have a lengthy bowl history, but it has been successful. They debuted Dec. 21, 2007 with a 44-27 win over Memphis, an AAC opponent, before posting a 24-21 win over Central Michigan in the 2008 Motor City Bowl. In their only previous Boca Raton Bowl showing they routed Akron by a 50-3 score on Dec. 19, 2017.

-- SMU fired out of the box with eight straight victories to open the season, while going 5-0 ATS in the first five contests. The 'over' also went 7-0 in the first seven battles, and 9-0-1 in their first 10 contests. Their only losses came in a 54-48 slugfest at Memphis on Nov. 2, and a 35-28 showdown at Navy on Nov. 23. The Mustangs did limp home with a 1-4 ATS mark in the final five games.

-- The Mustangs ranked ninth in the country with 495.3 total yards per game on offense, while ranking 12th in passing yards (309.3) per contest. They're also 41st in the land with 185.9 rushing yards per game and 43.0 points per game to end up seventh in the nation. Defensively the Mustangs allowed 438.6 total yards per game to rank 102nd, while ranking 121st in passing yards allowed (284.9) and 100th in points allowed (31.8 PPG).

-- SMU QB Shane Buechele threw for 3,626 passing yards with 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions while completing 63.2 percent of his passes. RB Xavier Jones ran for 1,249 yards and 21 touchdowns while WR James Proche ended up with 102 receptions, 1,139 yards and 14 combined touchdowns.

-- The Owls will be playing their first game with interim head coach Glenn Spencer at the helm after Lane Kiffin bolted for the vacant Ole Miss head coaching position.

-- FAU ranked 32nd with 443.5 total yards per game on offense while ranking 30th in passing yards (278.4). They were also 16th in the country with 35.2 PPG. Defensively the Owls were 48th with 371.3 total yards per game allowed, 81st against the pass (233.6) and 41st against the run (137.7). They also ranked 33rd while allowing 22.3 PPG.

-- Owls TE Harrison Bryant posted 1,002 yards while capturing the Mackey Award, recognized as college football's best tight end.

-- SMU posted a 4-0 ATS mark in their past four non-conference games, but they're 1-4 ATS in the past five games overall.

-- FAU is 5-1 ATS in the past six games overall, while going 4-0 ATS in the past four against teams with a winning overall mark. They're also 5-0 ATS in the past five neutral-site contests.

-- The over is 9-3 in SMU's past 12 games overall, and 6-2 in the past eight as a favorite. The over is also 6-0 in the past six non-conference games, but the under is 4-0 in the past four neutral-site battles and 5-0 in SMU's past five bowl games.

-- The over is 5-1-1 in FAU's past seven as an underdog, while the under is 7-1 in their past eight appearances in the month of December and 8-3 in the past 11 games on a grass surface.

-- This is the first-ever meeting between SMU and FAU on the gridiron.

-- Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 20
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

USU at KENT 07:30 PM

KENT +7.0

U 69.0