NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Sat., Aug. 24 - Mon., Sep. 2)

[Udog]

Thursday's Tip Sheet
Joe Nelson

While college football had a brief preview last Saturday with two compelling and competitive games, the season opens more officially Thursday night with six games scheduled. Here is a look at the two ESPN contests with a pair of closely-lined battles in rematches of tight games last season.

UCLA Bruins at Cincinnati Bearcats
Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio
Time/TV: Thursday, Aug. 29, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Cincinnati -3, Over/Under 60½
Last Meeting: 2018, Cincinnati (+14) 26, at UCLA 17

The highly anticipated return of Chip Kelly to the college football sidelines was spoiled on the opening college football weekend last season by the Cincinnati Bearcats. UCLA had a promising start in the game taking advantage of good field position to lead 10-0 in the first quarter but by halftime Cincinnati was up 17-10. The game was tied into the fourth quarter before a forced fumble resulted in a safety and Cincinnati would put the game away for one of the biggest upsets of the first week of the 2018 season.

UCLA started Michigan transfer Wilton Speight in that game but he was injured and freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson took over. He wound up playing the bulk of the snaps in the next five games for the Bruins before losing playing time late in the season to Speight, who has been in 49ers camp this August. Thompson-Robinson is the expected starter for UCLA this season and he will look to improve on marginal passing numbers with a 58 percent completion rate last season for only seven touchdowns. He also managed only a net gain of 68 yards on the ground last season despite Kelly being known for using quarterbacks in the running game as well.

The final record for UCLA last season was 3-9 but the Bruins did win three Pac-12 games including beating rival USC in November. They also were very competitive in three other single-score losses in league play including a seven-point loss to eventual Pac-12 champion Washington. UCLA will again play an extremely difficult non-conference schedule this season after losing to three teams that combined to win 35 games last season but this year’s Pac-12 draw is more favorable with Oregon and Washington absent from the North.

In Luke Fickell’s second season with Cincinnati the Bearcats improved from 4-8 to 11-2 including a bowl win over Virginia Tech. One of Cincinnati’s losses came in overtime but in the big late season showdown with UCF they were blown out with a 38-13 result to fall short in the difficult AAC East race. This year’s schedule will be much more challenging even if the Bearcats can make a case for being an even better team. Cincinnati will draw Ohio State in non-conference action next week in Columbus while they must play Memphis and Houston from the AAC West, teams they did not have to play last season.

Long-time Cincinnati starting quarterback Hayden Moore did start last season’s game with UCLA but was replaced early in the game after taking two sacks in five plays including a fumble that handed the Bruins the early advantage. Desmond Ridder took over to lead the win for the Bearcats and played substantially the rest of the season as the team’s main quarterback, winding up with 20 touchdowns and only five interceptions as well as rushing for more than 500 yards.

Cincinnati’s success last season in conference play came due to its defense which allowed an AAC best 139 points in eight games for an average of just over 17 points. That average was just over 14 points per game allowed against the teams other than UCF, and that even includes two overtime contests. In great contrast UCLA allowed more than 34 points per game last season, albeit through one of the nation’s most difficult schedules. The 26 points allowed in the loss to Cincinnati was technically the second best defensive scoring game of the season for UCLA.

In last year’s game UCLA posted 4.6 yards per rush and had a stronger yards per pass average compared with Cincinnati, finishing the game with two more yards in the box score overall. The turnovers were even and the penalty count was close as well but field position wound up being critical with each team having two short scoring drives of 36 yards or fewer.

Cincinnati can survive a loss next week to remain in the conversation for the top Group of 5 team bid but they need to win this game and maintain a run of 17 straight S/U wins in the season home opener. For a UCLA program looking to improve in stature this will be a big win to elevate its postseason prospects and improve on a 2-15 S/U record on the road the past three seasons.


Utah Utes at BYU Cougars
LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah
Time/TV: Thursday, Aug. 29, 10:15 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Utah -5, Over/Under 48
Last Meeting: 2018, at Utah (-10½) 35, BYU 27

Utah has been consistently successful under Kyle Whittingham who is the longest tenured coach in the Pac-12, even though Utah has only been in the Pac-12 since 2011. His career record is 120-61 and the Utes have had five straight winning seasons, while winning the Pac-12 south for the first time last year. The expectations continue to grow for the program in a potentially wide-open race out west with the Utes opening the season in the top 15 of the polls.

Utah closed the regular season with BYU last November and managed to erase a 20-0 deficit to come back and win. It is worth noting that the Utes clinched the Pac-12 South the prior week and had their first appearance in the Pac-12 championship six days following this rivalry game and that perhaps showed in the slow start. The final score was misleading as BYU had a 357-296 yardage edge and Utah added a late touchdown after BYU fell a yard short of converting a 4th down on its own side of the field. Utah had a field goal blocked but also had a pick-6 that cut into the 20-0 deficit to start the game.

The other caveat is that Jason Shelley started the game for Utah at quarterback as a freshman that had played in only two prior games as Utah was without Tyler Huntley as well as last year’s top running back Zack Moss for the game. Huntley had produced very solid numbers the past two seasons and is healthy and one of the top returning leaders in the conference, and Moss is also back as the lead back on the team. Top receiver Britain Covey also appears cleared to play for the Utes after recovering from knee surgery.

BYU had some ups-and-downs last season with a 3-1 start that included wins at Arizona and then at Wisconsin. BYU was blown out in the next two games and wound up losing four of the next five before sneaking into the bowl picture at 6-6, where they soundly defeated Western Michigan. The Tanner Mangum era at BYU is over as despite some nice moments the long-time starter was a consistent turnover risk. Zach Wilson took over midseason as a freshman last season and wound up with good numbers, albeit mostly facing some of the lesser teams on the season schedule.

Playing as an independent BYU’s opportunities against major conference teams come early in the season and they have a heavyweight path in the first half of the season facing Utah, Tennessee, USC, and Washington in the first four games, though three of those games will be in Provo. Add in contests vs. Toledo, South Florida, Boise State, and Utah State in the next block of the schedule and getting back to .500 is far from a given for this team in the fourth season for Kitani Sitake, who is 20-19 in his career.

BYU outscored foes 354-278 last season but the unbalanced scheduled meant a few blowouts. This contest carries great weight as a long-time rivalry with this year’s game actually the 100th all-time meeting between these nearby schools. Utah owns a substantial edge in that ledger including eight consecutive wins with the last BYU victory coming in 2009. Each of the past six Utah wins has come by eight or fewer points as a close game has been the norm in recent years.

The stakes are high in this year’s ‘Holy War’ as BYU seems likely to be dogged each of the next three weeks as a 0-4 start is certainly possible. For Utah a chance to breakthrough on a national level this season seems attainable with this game being one of three most dangerous road games on the season. The Pac-12 draw misses both Stanford and Oregon for a preferable path as a double-digit win season is realistic and running the table isn’t out of the question for an experienced group if they can first get by their historical rival.

Other Games Thursday

Georgia Tech at Clemson
Clemson will open up its defense of last season’s national title in a game that many won’t be able to see with the launch of the ACC Network with few active providers carrying the new channel. The spread doesn’t suggest a compelling game in the debut for Geoff Collins leading Georgia Tech but Clemson did lose to the Yellow Jackets in 2014 and the past two regular season defeats for the program were unassuming contests in which the Tigers were at least three-TD favorites.

Florida International at Tulane
The Panthers won as a double-digit underdog hosting this matchup two years ago and this closely-lined contest will be an important win for the victor in a battle of a pair of programs potentially headed to the bowl bubble by season’s end. Both teams have difficult non-conference games ahead as this will be a big swing game for teams looking to take another step forward.

Texas State at Texas A&M
Jake Spavital is the new Texas State head coach and he was an assistant at Texas A&M for three seasons under Kevin Sumlin. The Bobcats project as one of the teams at the bottom of the FBS rankings but this was a fairly competitive team with several narrow losses last season. Texas A&M will likely have few games like this taking on one of the nation’s toughest schedules in year two for Jimbo Fisher.

Kent State at Arizona State
True freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels will be worth watching as the new starter for Arizona State, a program that should remain in the Pac-12 South mix in year two under Herm Edwards. Kent State played up-tempo last season for Sean Lewis and brings back a lot of experience following a tough 2-10 campaign that did feature great strides offensively compared with the 2017 numbers.

[Udog]

Friday's Tip Sheet
Matt Blunt

We've got to wait a week before we get those stand alone Friday night affairs in college football this year, but that's not necessarily a bad thing as the opening Friday of the season is never short on action. This year we get eight games of FBS action to help further along that great first weekend of college football, and with the market place geared up for these games for months now, all eight will see significant action.

However, with seven of the eight games having double-digit favorites currently listed, how competitive these eight games on Friday end up being is up for debate. Three of the seven teams laying double-digits are doing so on the road, with Big 10 teams Wisconsin and Purdue being two of those three. Michigan State is another Big 10 team in action, laying 20+ and climbing at home against Tulsa.

With plenty of action available out there, there are a few games that deserve at least some discussion, so let's take a look at a few different spots out there on Friday night.

Massachusetts at Rutgers (-15.5), Total 55.5

Rutgers as a double-digit favorite? Is it warranted?

It's not often that Rutgers gets to be laying points against anyone in a given year, but they do tend to be double-digit chalk at least once per season, and it's usually in these early season games against FCS competition often times. U Mass moved up from that classification early on in this decade, but they are still far from competitive and that will likely be the case in 2019 as well.

It's still Rutgers laying this big number though, and it's one that's been bet up since opening around -12. Rutgers is not expected to be all that competitive in the Big 10 either, but early action and market adjustment suggests laying it with Rutgers is the way to go. After all, they are 3-2 ATS the past four years as a double-digit favorite (2-0 ATS last two seasons), and the two ATS defeats were by the hook at -13.5 in a 13-point win, and a 38-point victory that fell short of covering -42. Rutgers may not be a great upset candidate in Big 10 play, but when they are projected to win easily, that's what they tend to do.

Definitely tough to lay it now with the best of the number long gone and it still saying “Rutgers” beside that point spread, but don't be surprised to see Rutgers feeling extra confident going into Iowa next week off a blowout 20+ point win this week.

Oklahoma State (-14.5) vs Oregon State, Total 74

Too far to travel for Oklahoma State out of the gate?

The betting market has already shown support for Rutgers and their chalk this week, but the same can't be said for Oklahoma State and their chalk out on the road in Corvallis. An opening line of -16.5 saw quick resistance at -17, before even more action started to settle on the Beavers, knocking it down to it's current state of -14.5. That's a move that does look a bit more significant then it really is – moves tend to be multiple points between the key numbers of -14 and -17 – but is this move going to be the right one?

You never know how the actual game will play out, but on the surface, taking a home dog at more then two TD's against a team that's got to travel a long way and has a history of shooting itself in the foot at times does make a lot of sense. But then it puts you on this Oregon State Beavers program who's likely to struggle again this season.

The Beavers do have more experience on offense that will help them be a bit more competitive in the end, but not necessarily the firepower that OK State brings to the party. With a total in the mid-70's, can you really trust that Oregon State will score 30+ here? Oregon State managed to hit that mark in their first three games a season ago vs Ohio State, Southern Utah, and Nevada, but it's not a thing I'd count on regularly from this team, even if it is against an OK State team that gave up 32.5 points/game a season ago.

It still is the Cowboys on the other side of the field though, and they are no strangers to losing games outright as multiple score favorites. It is a long way for them to travel to not really increase the standing of their potential 2019 resume much (it may be a Pac-12 team, but it's still Oregon State), and if the offense doesn't find itself in sync, can a defense that's been bad for years really carry the load? Not something I'm willing to risk a unit on to find out, as this game could end up landing rather close to either side of this current number.

Colorado State vs Colorado (-13.5), Total 57

The annual tradition of Colorado and Under in this rivalry game

The Colorado/Colorado State game has opened up the season for these two programs in nine of the past 11 years, but as is the case whenever these two meet up, support for Colorado and the 'under' always takes center stage.

While totals for some of these games have been out for weeks and line moves over that kind of time span are going to generally be greater, this total opened up at 64.5 at the beginning, and apart from a blip of 'over' money a few days ago, it's all 'under' money on this total. Considering that of those past 11 matchups between these two instate rivals, the 'under' has gone 10-1 against the number, it's easy to see why that side of the total is getting support. The hatred seems to never take a summer break for these schools and they bring it in terms of physicality every year. Oddsmakers continue to put out totals that get pounded to the 'under' and keep having to pay out.

Backing Colorado ATS is the yearly tradition as well, and with a 7-3-1 ATS record the past 11 years in this game – including entering this year on a 3-0 ATS run – the Pac-12 team has lived up to the general belief that nearly all Power 5 conference teams should be able to beat the non-Power 5 schools. This spread has really only seen Colorado money since coming out at -11, and we could end up seeing this game close at greater than two TD's.

However, eventually one of these initial numbers that oddsmakers put out on this yearly contest is going to be more accurate then the market continues to think, and of determining whether to go against the recent runs of Colorado and the 'under' in these games, it would be the total streak that I believe will get snapped.

Colorado is going to be much more consistent on offense this year, and the defense will continue to not be great. Colorado State is in a similar position this year as well, so when you've got the strengths of both sides going up against the weaknesses on both sides, chances are siding with the former will work out better.

Colorado State already gave up 42.5 points per non-home game last year, and last year's game, despite cashing the 'under' easily with a 45-13 score staying well below the 65.5 total, that final score this season would now hit current 'over' bets. It's not like it's rare for these CFB totals with major moves to land somewhere in the middle of those moves, leaving a lot of initial steam chasers left in the dark.

But having hitting that key number of 57 (and even lower in some places), I think we see these two rivals bring out the points this year, in a game that in all likelihood results in another Colorado win.

Best Bet: Over 57 points

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 1
August 27, 2019
By Bruce Marshall

THURSDAY, AUG. 29

Matchup Skinny Edge

UCLA at CINCINNATI...Fickell 4-2 as home chalk LY, though Cincy only 3-8 in role previous three seasons. Bearcats dropped 5 of last 7 vs. spread in 2018 despite fine 11-2 overall SU mark. Chip only 5-7 vs. line in Bruin debut LY though 3-2 as road dog. Bruins no winning spread season since 2013 (23-39 vs. points since 2014).
Slight to Cincinnati, based on team trends.

GEORGIA TECH at CLEMSON...Collins GT debut! Collins covered 6 of last 8 as dog with Temple, and was 14-7-1 last 22 vs. line with Owls. Paul Johnson was 14-8-1 as dog with Jackets 2014-18 but lost and failed to cover last four vs. Tigers (0-3-1 vs. line). Dabo just 3-3 last six laying 30 or more but is 13-8-1 as DD chalk the past two seasons.
Slight to Clemson, based on series trends.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at TULANE...Butch Davis 4-0 as dog LY and 10-4 in role since 2017 with Golden Panthers. FIU also covered all six away from home last season and all five non-CUSA games. Wave just 1-3 as home chalk LY.
FIU, based on team trends.

TEXAS STATE at TEXAS A&M...Spavital TSU debut! Bobcats did cover 5 of last 7 in 2018 for Withers. Jimbo 5-1 as home chalk LY and 10-3 overall vs. line, also 4-1 as DD chalk. Ags also covered all five non-SEC games a year ago.
Slight to Texas A&M, based on team trends.

KENT STATE at ARIZONA STATE...Sean Lewis 3-1 vs. line non-MAC in his Kent State debut LY. Herm 4-2 vs. spread at Tempe LY, continuing recent good ASU home marks dating to Todd Graham years (Sun Devils 25-14 vs. spread as host since 2012). Herm 2-1 as DD chalk in 2018.
Slight to Arizona State, based on team trends.

UTAH at BYU... Visiting team has covered last three meetings since series resumed in 2016 (played in bowl in 2015 season), with Utah winning SU in last eight meetings. Utes 13-7-1 vs. spread last 21 away from Salt Lake City, 6-4-1 last 11 as visiting chalk. Sitake 6-1 last 7 as dog and is 13-5 vs. points last 18 on board.
Slight to Utah, based on series trends.

[Udog]

Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in all FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Early Starts

Florida Atlantic at Ohio State (-27.5/63.5), 12 p.m. ET, FOX: Lane Kiffin’s Owls have been outscored 105-34 in his first two season-openers at the school. Since Deondre Francois wound up at Hampton, QB Chris Robison is expected to see the majority of the snaps despite a student-newspaper story dropping this week alleging that a complaint against him for sexual assault wasn’t properly investigated. The Oklahoma transfer likely won’t be the only FAU player to line up under the center but is expected to do the bulk of the work. How quickly will the Buckeyes overcome any jitters as Georgia transfer Justin Fields takes his first snaps at quarterback as head coach Ryan Day settling in full-time? With Cincinnati in town next week, Ohio State wouldn’t want to see RB JK Dobbins overloaded with work behind an offensive line that must be patched together since multiple starters went off to the NFL.

South Alabama at Nebraska (-36/66), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Huskers still haven’t divulged if top RB Maurice Washington will play after pleading not guilty to a revenge porn charge in California back in April, so former Georgia Tech standout Dedrick Mills might be worth the fantasy nod. After an 0-6 start to ‘18, Scott Frost won’t have his team looking ahead to next weekend’s visit to Colorado but probably will withhold any real wrinkles unless it’s necessary. South Alabama’s chances hinge on QB Cephus Johnson being more accurate since he completed just 36.8 of his passes last season.

East Carolina vs. NC State (-17.5/52), 12 p.m. ET, ACCN: Ryan Finley lit it up for the NFL’s Bengals all preseason and the Wolfpack’s two 1,000-yard receivers are also gone, so it will be interesting to see what this offense looks like with co-coordinators replacing Eli Drinkwitz, who took over as Appalachian State’s head coach. Sophomore Matt McKay beat out ex-FSU commit Bailey Hockman for first crack at replacing Finley. ECU’s Holton Ahlers impressed before being hurt last season and will open under center as a sophomore after leading the team rushing yards, rushing scores and TD passes despite making only five starts. Mike Houston, who had a great run at FCS-member James Madison, lost to N.C. State 24-13 in last season’s opener when he was with the Dukes, so the entire coaching staff will be familiar with the Pack. ECU won 33-30 in 2016 at home but fell in Raleigh 58-3 to close out last year’s disastrous season.

Akron at Illinois (-18/61), 12 p.m ET, BTN: Lovie Smith is 3-0 in lid-lifters since taking over the Illini but hasn’t covered the past two against MAC foes. With Michigan transfer Brandon Peters in to run the show, Smith has the most talented quarterback he’s had at the position since he returned to the college game. The schedule lays out for Illinois to open 3-0 for the first time since 2011 if they take care of business as a favorite. Akron moved on from Terry Bowden, so we’ll see what things look like under Tom Arth, a former QB tasked with upgrading an offense that was held to single-digits in three of last season’s final four game. Defensively, Illinois will likely stay away from dangerous DB Alvin Davis, the unquestioned leader of a revamped secondary.

Ball State vs. Indiana (-18/60.5), 12 p.m. ET, CBSSN: This game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium. For Ball State, it’s an opportunity to knock off the first power-five of the Mike Neu era, which is entering an important fourth year. The Cardinals have covered at Indiana, Illinois and Notre Dame during his tenure but fell 38-10 at the Hoosiers last season. Junior QB Drew Plitt threw more picks than TD passes last season but has a lot of receiving weapons. Indiana will start redshirt freshman QB Michael Penix, who tore his ACL last season but showed real promise in limited action and has a number of wideouts back. RB Stevie Scott accounted for over 1,200 yards and 11 scores as a freshman.

Toledo at Kentucky (-11.5/61.5), 12 p.m. ET, SEC: After a dream season that delivered 10 wins for the first time in 41 years and a bowl upset over Penn State, the Wildcats will adjust to life without top rusher Bennie Snell and sack master Josh Allen, justifiably the faces of the program. There’s definitely plenty back, starting with electric QB Terry Wilson, who would make life much easier if he can eliminate mistakes. Mitchell Guadagni won back the QB gig at Toledo and had moments of brilliance as a junior, but this is by far the toughest task Jason Candle has had to open a season since taking over as head coach. The Rockets suffered a major blow when center Bryce Harris (knee) was lost for the season. His presence stabilizing the offensive line will be missed in Lexington. Toledo comes off its first losing season on the road since 2009.

Mississippi State (-19.5/60) vs. Louisiana, 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU: This game is being played at the Superdome in New Orleans and will see Penn State grad transfer Tommy Stevens debut in a system he knows well, giving Joe Moorhead a downfield passing attack that wasn’t feasible under the Tim Tebow-like Nick Fitzgerald, who set an SEC record for all-time rushing yards from a QB. Three NFL first-round picks are gone from last season’s swarming defense, so we’ll see what veteran coordinator Bob Shoop comes up with out of the gate as he looks to keep talented Ragin’ Cajuns RB Trey Ragas from finding a rhythm behind an offensive line dealing with significant attrition since center Cole Prudhomme is out and guard Kevin Dotson is questionable. QB Levi Lewis is the unquestioned starter and has legitimate threats in WRs Ja’Marcus Bradley and “Bam” Jackson, but Louisiana lost last season’s game in Starkville 56-10.

Ole Miss at Memphis (-4.5/64.5), 12 p.m. ET, ABC: The Rebels and Tigers are getting together for the first time since 2016 and the fact Memphis last upset an SEC foe when Ole Miss came through the Liberty Bowl in ’15 makes this all the more interesting. Head coach Mike Norvell nearly beat UCF twice last season and defeated UCLA at home two years ago, but he’s got to replace RB Darrell Henderson, who accounted for over 2,300 yards and 25 touchdowns and made life much easier for QB Brady White. The Rebs have their own offensive concerns considering their top receivers are all gone, which means redshirt freshman QB Matt Corral could have his work cut out for him. He got in four games last season and impressed with his ability to mix it up. Getting senior RB Scottie Phillips off to take some pressure off Corral is head coach Matt Luke’s chief objective.

Boise State at Florida State (-6.5/54.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPNN: This game was supposed to be played in Jacksonville but was moved to Tallahassee due to the impending threat of Hurricane Dorian, which makes this a true home game for the ‘Noles. Books voided action and have put a new number on this one as a write-in game. For the Broncos, the task gets more difficult since FSU will come out of its home locker room and enjoy more of an edge, but their ability to pull an upset was always going to hinge on how their experienced offensive line holds up against a defense looking to turn the page after an awful 2018. Willie Taggart is already on the hot seat and hired Kendal Briles to help coordinate an offense that was also a disaster in Year 1 but gets QB James Blackman back in addition to elite playmakers in RB Cam Akers and WR Tamorrion Terry.

Afternoon Delights

Georgia State at Tennessee (-26.5/57.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU: Jeremy Pruitt is under pressure to keep the Vols from a third straight losing season that would be their seventh in a 10-year span, so winning this one easily would be reassuring. His run started horribly in a 40-14 loss to West Virginia a year ago and his defense faded in surrendering 88 points in season-ending losses to Mizzou and Vandy. QB Jarrett Guarantano is now a junior and should be among the SEC’s top quarterbacks given that the entire offense is back, while the league’s returning sack leader, Darrell Taylor, should team with a talented secondary to get things turned around. It all sounds great, but Tennessee needs to prove it on the field. Georgia State won just twice last season after reaching a bowl in HC Shawn Elliott’s first season. This will be their lone game against a power-five, so they’ll be hyped out of the gate. Senior QB Dan Ellington led the team in passing and rushing, so if you’re on the Panthers to cover, he’ll have to do his part.

Eastern Michigan (-6/53) at Coastal Carolina, 3:30 p.m ET: With two bowl trips rewarding a pair of winning seasons over the last three years, it’s fair to say Chris Creighton has turned around EMU, but building a consistent winner in a program that has notoriously produced little takes even more work. Last season’s upset at Purdue was monumental and sets up a pair of big games for the program at Kentucky and Illinois in the next week. How much momentum they take into that hinges on how well QB Mike Glass picks up where he left off in the Camellia Bowl. The Eagles are 16-3 ATS over their last 19 road games, so keep that in mind before blindly backing the host Chanticleers. Coastal does return a defense featuring many familiar faces. Head coach Jamey Chadwell picked Fred Payton, Jr. to start ahead of Bryce Carpenter in the spread option. Both appeared as true freshmen and put up similar numbers, so look for each to appear against the visiting Eagles.

South Carolina (-11.5/63.5) vs. North Carolina, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium will host Mack Brown’s return to coaching, so we’ll see what he’s come up with in the lab as he tries to help the Tar Heels bounce back from consecutive nine-loss seasons. Improvement may be gradual, but it should come over time with true freshman QB Sam Howell at the helm. The highly-rated recruit won the job and will have RB Javonte Williams in addition to WRs Dazz Newsome and Dyami Brown to help stretch the field. UNC wants to push tempo, but it remains to be seen how effective it will be with an SEC defense on tap this week and Miami’s solid group coming through Chapel Hill next week. Will Muschamp’s Gamecocks were blanked by Virginia in the Belk Bowl and are looking for senior QB Jake Bentley to produce his best season yet without the services of Deebo Samuel, who should have a big role with the 49ers as a rookie. RB Rico Dowdle and a number of capable wideouts will look to fill the void.

Duke vs. Alabama (-33.5/57), 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC: You know David Cutcliffe would love to have Daniel Jones back for at least one more game, but he does have a senior in Quentin Harris, who has started a few games in place of the latest N.Y. Giants’ first-round pick over the years. The Blue Devils have posted winning seasons in five of the past six years, so Nick Saban should have no problem putting a scare into his Crimson Tide that they better not collectively overlook the smart kids. It will be a ‘Bama “home” game at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which they’ve played in three times already. Tua Tagovailoa will lead an explosive offense featuring the nation’s highest-regarded WR in Jerry Jeudy and a host of other toys. The Tide may need to put their foot on the gas since a defense that comes off getting sliced up by Oklahoma and Clemson in last season’s playoffs lost multiple key figures. Top tackler Dylan Moses was supposed to lead the way from his linebacker position but injured his knee in practice on Tuesday and is now out for the season.

Northwestern at Stanford (-6/47), 4 p.m. ET, FOX: There certainly isn’t as much buzz surrounding the Cardinal as there has been in recent years, so maybe flying under the radar some will do this group so good. QB KJ Costello, tight end Colby Parkinson and safety Paulson Adebo could be among the best in the country at their positions, but RB Bryce Love, star WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and a number of key offensive linemen are gone. The Wildcats therefore look like a live ‘dog since they bring a streak of wins in eight consecutive true road games into this one and notched an upset of Pac-12 favorite Utah in the Holiday Bowl in their most recent outing. If a talented defense can keep Costello from finding a rhythm, they’ll limit the burden facing Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson, who will likely start ahead of senior TJ Green as Northwestern attempts to replace four-year starter Clayton Thorson, who owns most school passing records.

Virginia Tech at Boston College (-4.5/58.5), 4 p.m. ET, ACCN: The ACC is putting a few of its teams up against each other this opening weekend and has a beauty of a matchup here. Legendary Hokies defensive coordinator Bud Foster is beginning his final season before retiring and has to worry about how he’s going to contain RB A.J. Dillon, considered one of the league’s top backs alongside Clemson’s Travis Etienne. After a horrible season stopping the run, this will be a great opportunity to see whether a group that returns most guys up front can improve and key a resurgence after a rare losing season in Blacksburg. VA Tech QB Ryan Willis threw 24 TD passes last season after transferring in from Kansas and will take aim at a BC secondary that lost a ton of talent. With Dillon likely to be the focal point of the Hokies’ defensive attention, Eagles QB Anthony Brown will play x-factor given the opportunities that should become available. He’s 1-1 against Virginia Tech, beating them in Blacksburg last season.

Syracuse (-18.5/68) at Liberty, 6 p.m. ET: The Flames moved up to the FBS level last season and blew out Old Dominion 52-10 in finishing 5-1 at home, so this isn’t exactly a gimme for the Orange. With Turner Gill retiring, former Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze was hired to help capitalize on the presence of Buckshot Calvert, who threw for over 3,000 yards last season. The Flames saw Auburn transfer Malik Willis get denied immediate eligibility by the NCAA, removing a major wrinkle from Freeze’s toolbox and lightening the load for Syracuse defensive coordinator Brian Ward. Offensively, the Orange will unleash Tommy DeVito as a full-time starting QB after he gained experience behind gutsy dual-threat Eric Dungey, Dino Babers’ first conductor to the high-octane circus that is the SU attack, which helped average 40.2 points last season.

[Udog]

Saturday Night's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in all FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Primetime Matchups

SMU at Arkansas State (-2.5/56.5), 7 p.m. ET: Mustangs head coach Sonny Dykes didn’t reach a bowl with the school’s all-time leading passer, Ben Hicks, who transferred to Arkansas after learning his job wouldn’t be guaranteed and should start there. Former Longhorns starter Shane Buechele will start and has an impressive receiving corps that should put up numbers and will look to match the production the RedWolves should come up with through impressive WRs Kirk Merritt and Dahu Green. An inexperienced line needs to buy time for QB Logan Bonner, who takes over for reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year Justice Hansen. Veteran head coach Blake Anderson has taken a leave of absence due to the unfortunate death of his wife less than two weeks ago. New defensive coordinator David Duggan will fill in as the interim.

Middle Tennessee State at Michigan (-34.5/54.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, BTN: Jim Harbaugh has won 10 games in three of the last four seasons but has nonetheless not lived up to expectations. He’s kept exceptional defensive coordinator Don Brown but has rehauled the offense, bringing in Alabama co-coordinator Josh Gattis to install a no-huddle spread that will hopefully get the most out of Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson, who came up short in the Wolverines’ biggest games. Although RB Karan Higdon is now with the Texans, there is still plenty of offensive talent that includes a loaded line expected to win most battles up front. The Blue Raiders arrive with a new quarterback since head coach Rick Stockstill’s son Brent, who threw for over 10,000 yards, graduated. He won’t tip his hand as to who will start, but sophomores Asher O’Hara and Chase Cunningham have experience in the system and will likely both see time.

Miami (OH) at Iowa (-22/47), 7:30 p.m. ET, FS1: The Hawkeyes have won 16 of 18 home openers but did lose to a MAC school the last time they were upset, falling to Northern Illinois in ’13. With Nate Stanley back at QB, hopes are high that this group can compete for another Big Ten title if it can rebuild its defensive line with around standout pass-rusher AJ Epenesa. Tight ends TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant, both Top-20 NFL Draft picks, must also be replaced. The Redhawks are replacing long-time QB Gus Ragland and will be on the road against a disciplined team, so Chuck Martin will have his work cut out for him after not finishing with a losing record for the first time in his five-year tenure last season.

Georgia Southern at LSU (-27.5/52.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC: The Eagles won 10 games last season after losing 10 and should be able to compete for a Sun Belt title given the offensive line they’ve got returning and the fact QB Shai Werts to run the show. A triple-option attack doesn’t figure to do well against LSU’s monstrous defensive front, especially when you consider they’ve had weeks to prepare, but the Tigers could get caught looking ahead to next week’s visit to Austin to battle Texas in the game all eyes will be on. QB Joe Burrow will have a new offense to run with a host of receivers expected to get touches and freshman RB John Emery is likely to be the future and the truth, but it remains to be see how much Ed Oregeron is willing to put on film with next week’s road trip being what it is.

Georgia (-22.5/57.5) at Vanderbilt, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: Vandy is still seeking its first winning season under Derek Mason but has beaten Tennessee three straight years and reached a bowl in two of those seasons. RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, WR Kalija Lipscomb and TE Jared Pinkney are among the nation’s best at their positions, but being able to seriously threaten the visiting ‘Dawgs hinges on QB play. Ball State grad transfer Riley Neal and dual-threat Deuce Wallace will look to move it against a fearsome defense. The Commodores have been pretty solid defensively over the past few years but have a lot of talent to replace, which gives UGA QB Jake Fromm and RB D’Andre Swift a great chance to put up gaudy numbers. Left tackle Andrew Thomas may be the first non-QB drafted next April. Head coach Kirby Smart lost to the ‘Dores 17-16 in his first season but has beat them twice since by a combined margin of 86-27.

Virginia (-2.5/46.5) at Pittsburgh, 7:30 p.m. ET, ACC: This would be a pick’em if not for the fact UVa closed last season so strong. Apparently oddsmakers forgot the Panthers won last season’s meeting 23-13 and haven’t lost to the Cavaliers since 2014. Bronco Mendenhall will want to get even, but he’s lost multiple key defensive players that helped shut out South Carolina in the Belk Bowl and also saw top receiver Olamide Zaccheaus and 1,000-yard rusher Jordan Ellis graduate. QB Bryce Perkins is back for his senior year. Virginia has dropped its last three road openers but is hoping to take advantage of the fact Pitt lost two 1,000-yard rushers and its best big-play receiver. Junior QB Kenny Pickett is prone to inconsistency but has a QB whisperer in place with veteran coach Mark Whipple on staff. This one could come down to field position and special teams, which favor Pitt given the presence of stud returner Maurice Ffrench and kicker Alex Kessman.

Missouri (-16.5/54) at Wyoming, 7:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN: QB Kelly Bryant didn’t get his championship ring despite starting four games at Clemson last season, but he’s looking to resurface and pick up some hardware and increase his draft profile in the SEC by filling standout Drew Lock’s shoes. There are certainly a ton of weapons and after back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since reaching consecutive league title games in ’13 and ’14, but this first month looks tricky. This appears to be a trap game given the altitude in Laramie and a well-disciplined Cowboys team waiting to pull a major home upset after falling to Oregon and Washington State when they came through town. Wyoming lost to Mizzou 40-13 in Columbia last season but feel good about the development of redshirt freshman Sean Chambers, who has a little Josh Allen.

Oregon at Auburn (-3.5/55), 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC: This is the game set to captivate the nation’s attention unless there’s a high-profile upset. The Ducks welcome back QB Justin Herbert, who would’ve been a first-round pick but opted to return to try and become more polished. He won’t have top target Dillon Mitchell back and will be looking for targets to step up and help move the ball against an experienced Auburn secondary. The Tigers may have the nation’s defensive line and Oregon is loaded up front, so the battle up front should be tremendous. Finally, there’s true freshman QB Bo Nix making his debut as he attempts to ensure Gus Malzahn sees an eighth year on the Plains. The son of former Auburn standout Patrick Nix is considered the real deal. We’ll find out whether that’s true immediately.

Louisiana Tech at Texas (-20/55), 8 p.m. ET, LHN: Pulling a Sugar Bowl upset of Georgia in January’s Sugar Bowl to pull off the school’s first 10-game win season since ’09 means Texas is back right? The Longhorns won’t be able to answer that question until next week’s home date with LSU, which means we probably won’t see much out of their bag of tricks as they try to get past the visiting Bulldogs and get to next week. Keontay Ingram will play coming off a bone bruise but freshmen Jordan Whittington and true freshman Roschon Johnson, a highly-rated QB, will get carries. Sam Ehlinger, a Heisman frontrunner if he indeed can bring Texas back, has a lot of receiving options. La Tech HC Skip Holtz called him Tebow-like in his impact and is 1-12 against power-fives, but he’s 7-4 ATS over the past five years, beating Illinois outright in a bowl game. QB J’Mar Smith is a veteran who threw for 330 on LSU last season and has an excellent primary target to work with in junior Adrian Hardy. If Texas is too vanilla, veteran defensive coordinator Bob Diaco may find a way to keep this closer than expected.

Late-night Snacks

New Mexico State at Washington State (-31.5/64.5), 10 p.m. ET, Pac-12: Replacing Gardner Minshew has been the big story in Pullman since top candidates Anthony Gordon and Gage Gubrud staged one great battle to fill Mike Leach’s vacancy. Gordon won but Guburd, a grad transfer from FCS power Eastern Washington, will also get time. That should be the case here so long as the Cougs handle their business on defense and are able to work on their precision passing game with little game pressure. The visiting Aggies are in their second season back in the Indy ranks and get Alabama next week, so it’s unlikely head coach Doug Martin will be playing his regulars trying to earn a backdoor cover late if this is a blowout. If it’s not, it means sophomore Josh Adkins has found a way to generate points against a legitimate defense, something the Aggies struggled with last season. Baylor grad transfer WR Tony Nicholson will be a top target.

Fresno State at USC (-13.5/52/5), 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: Jeff Tedford’s Bulldogs crushed UCLA last season and handled Arizona State in the Las Vegas Bowl the last time they took the field, so the Trojans can’t possibly come into this overconfident. Of course, most of the guys responsible for the success Tedford has enjoyed in his return to coaching (22-6 SU) are gone, so we’ll see whether he’s had enough to coach up a new group in order to improve to 3-1 against the Pac-12 with Fresno. Jorge Reyna takes over for Marcus McMaryion and is familiar with the system but won’t have a target like KeeSean Johnson to deal with since he’ll have a huge role alongside Kyler Murray in Arizona. USC has a lot of young talent that is projected to reach the next level and will be looking to try and wipe the stench of last season’s 5-7 disaster off them. Sophomore QB J.T. Daniels has Clay Helton’s employment in his hands and has reportedly looked more decisive in camp.

[Udog]

Houston at Oklahoma
Matt Blunt

Houston Cougars at Oklahoma Sooners (ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET)

With no professional football hitting the airwaves on Sunday and Monday nights yet, that stage is set for the understudies in the collegiate game, and Sunday night's battle between Houston and Oklahoma should be a good one.

Both schools have some lofty expectations for the 2019 season, and how can you not begin with Oklahoma on that topic. The Sooners are looking for another playoff berth this year with Alabama transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts now under center. Head coach Lincoln Riley has produced the last two Heisman winners at that position for the Sooners, and neither of them had the collegiate football resume that Hurts has transferring into the program.

At the same time, Houston ushers in the Dana Holgorsen era in with this game, as even after departing the Big 12, Holgorsen's first game in his new gig is against a Big 12 school. Lincoln Riley's Sooners got the better of Holgorsen's West Virginia Mountaineers in each of the past two years (both years Riley's been at Oklahoma), by winning 59-31 at home in 2017, and then going into West Virginia last year and leaving with a 59-56 win.

Those results suggest that the scoreboard is going to get a workout in this game as well, with Oklahoma's laying the same number in this game against Holgorsen's new team as the spread closed at the last time they hosted Holgorsen and his old team back in 2017. Will this year's result be any different?

Betting Odds: Houston at Oklahoma (-23); Total 80

While it is true that West Virginia/Oklahoma games between these two coaches were high-scoring shootouts, that doesn't necessarily mean it will happen for the third straight year. These two coaches aren't too keen on being great on defense so it could happen again, but sometimes the only constant is change, and I believe we see all the change that both programs are going through early this year, leads to a change in the result of this third straight Holgorsen/Riley battle.

In Oklahoma's case, it's the change of having Jalen Hurts and his championship pedigree under center. However, as good as Riley is at getting the most out of his QB's, all of that starts with accurate passing. That's something Hurts as undoubtedly worked on since arriving at Oklahoma, but it's also something that needed a lot of work. For all his championship experience from his time at Alabama, if he was a championship caliber thrower of the football, he would have never got benched in the championship game, losing his starting job for good.

Secondly, coming in after two straight Heisman QB's is never going to be easy, especially when both were 1st overall NFL draft picks, and Kyler Murray has a good enough arm to be a 1st round (Top 10) MLB draft pick as well. Hurts just isn't in that class as a passer at this level, and even with a full off-season of working on it, this Oklahoma offense is probably going to need a bit more time to marinate then most would expect. Remember, they lost weapons around the QB position as well to the next level.

On the other sideline we've got a Houston team that expects their former OC in Holgorsen to come back as the conquering hero 10 years later as the head coach. He's done quite well for himself since moving on from the Houston OC position in 2009, and his teams since then are always known for offense. The Cougars have been fine offensively for years, so bringing in another guy with Holgorsen's resume didn't make a whole lot of sense given the Cougars defensive concerns at times in 2018, but Holgorsen's past relationship with the school didn't hurt.

But what that effectively does for Game 1 here is force an already strong Houston offense to adjust/learn new plays, terminology etc just to try and stay a strong offense. That's a lot like forcing a square peg into a round hole, and while over time those square edges may round off and eventually fit snug a few weeks down the road, there is going to be a forced learning curve for the Cougars as well in 2019, one that isn't likely to live up to the lofty early season expectations.

So we've got a scenario where two offenses have gone through significant changes over the past six months are expected to come out of the gates at mid-season form simply because of the past results from games when these coaches did meet. So it's not like scoring points will be like pulling teeth out there, but to have a total at 80 right now is a bit too high for a season opener.

Not only will the change offensively for both teams bring some less then expected results in this game, as a -23 home favorite, you can't rule out the possibility of Oklahoma getting out to a big lead early in the 2nd half and then bleeding the clock away with the run after that. You could get a 52-24 type game that would likely live up to many expectations, but still be a full major score away from cashing an 'over' ticket in this game.

Pretty much everything has to go right in terms of a pace perspective to cash 'overs' in the 80's, and generally speaking you want an offense that's got a rhythm going in that spot. You definitely don't want two teams with either a new QB (who's known to struggle passing) or a new coach who's implemented his own system to a new bunch of guys playing their first game of the year.

[Udog]

Notre Dame at Louisville
Brian Edwards

Venue/Location: Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, KY
Time/TV: Monday, Sept. 2, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Notre Dame -18, Total 54.5
Last Meeting: 2014, Louisville (+2.5) 31 at Notre Dame 28

With Week 1 of the NFL’s season beginning on Thursday, college football is the Monday Night Football offering from ESPN to conclude Week 1. Louisville and its new head coach Scott Satterfield will host Notre Dame at Cardinal Stadium.

As of Sunday night, most books had the Fighting Irish installed as an 18-point road favorite with a total of 54 or 54.5 points. The Cardinals were +700 or +750 on the money line at most spots.

For first half wagers, Notre Dame is a 10-point favorite at most books, but there’s a -115 price attached to it. There are a few betting shops like the Westgate SuperBook and Stations who have the Irish -10.5 in the game’s first 30 minutes. The total is 28 points, while U of L is +500 on the money line.

Notre Dame finished 2018 with a 12-1 straight-up record and a 6-6-1 against-the-spread mark. Brian Kelly’s team went undefeated in 12 regular-season games, beating four ranked foes in 14th-ranked Michigan (24-17), seventh-ranked Stanford (38-17), 24th-ranked Va. Tech (45-23) and 12th-ranked Syracuse (36-3). Notre Dame’s season ended at Jerry World in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff, as Clemson trounced the Irish 30-3 as a 12.5-point ‘chalk.’ The Tigers enjoyed a 538-248 advantage in total offense, with Trevor Lawrence throwing for 327 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Notre Dame QB Ian Book completed only 17-of-34 passes for 160 yards and one interception.

Kelly’s bunch went 2-1-1 ATS as a road favorite in 2018. During his first nine seasons in South Bend, Notre Dame has compiled a 10-13-1 ATS as a road favorite. The Irish posted a 2-5-1 spread record in eight games as a double-digit favorite.

Notre Dame returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. Book is back for his junior campaign. He took over for Brandon Wimbush, who has since transferred to UCF, as the starting signal caller in Week 5 vs. Stanford.

Book went 8-1 in nine starts, connecting on 68.2 percent of his passes for 2,628 yards with a 19/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He had 280 rushing yards and four TDs.

The Irish lost leading rusher Dexter Williams, who had 995 rushing yards, 12 TDs and a 6.3 yards-per-carry average in ’18. He also had 16 receptions for 133 yards and one TD. The depth chart Kelly released this week lists sophomore Jafar Armstrong or junior Tony Jones as the starting RB.

Jones ran for 392 yards and three TDs with a 4.7 YPC average last year, while Armstrong had 383 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 5.3 YPC average. Armstrong had 14 catches for 159 yards, and Jones made six receptions for 157 yards and one TD.

Notre Dame’s offense averaged 31.4 points per game in ’18, while its defense gave up only 18.2 PPG.

Notre Dame will face U of L without its starting tight end Cole Kmet (broken collarbone, out indefinitely), WR Kevin Austin (indefinite suspension) and WR Michael Young. Kmet started seven games last year, hauling in 15 receptions for 162 yards.

Austin played in 11 of 13 games as a freshman last season, making five catches for 90 yards. Young, a junior, has played in 26 career games. He had seven grabs for 138 yards and one TD in 2018.

Louisville won at least eight games in the first four seasons of Bobby Petrino’s second head-coaching stint at the school. However, the 2018 team finished the year on a nine-game losing streak and U of L decided to fire Petrino.

I’m a big fan of the new hire in former Appalachian State head coach Scott Satterfield, who went 47-16 from 2014-18 when the school moved from FCS up to FBS and into the Sun Belt Conference. Satterfield led the Mountaineers to a 34-6 record against Sun Belt opponents. He nearly pulled upsets in season-opening overtime losses at Tennessee (2016) and at Penn State (last year).

Satterfield led Appalachian State to four straight bowl appearances, going 3-0 in those games. (The Mountaineers beat Middle Tennessee 45-13 at last year’s New Orleans Bowl after Satterfield had left for U of L.). His teams won at least nine games in each of his last four seasons, finishing 10-3 in ’16 and 11-2 in both ’15 and ’18.

Satterfield inherits a squad that finished 2-10 SU and an atrocious 1-11 ATS last season. U of L brings back six starters on offense and 10 on defense. Whether 10 defensive starters returning is a good thing or not is debatable, because that unit allowed 44.1 PPG in ’18.

Junior Jawon Pass, a former four-star recruit, has won the starting QB job. Pass started nine games last season, completing 54.0 percent of his passes for 1,960 with an abysmal 8/12 TD-INT ratio. He had a pair of rushing scores.

U of L bring back four of its top-five pass catchers. Dez Fitzpatrick is the best of the bunch. He had 699 receiving yards in seven starts as a freshman in ’17. Fitzpatrick had 31 receptions for 422 yards and three TDs last year.

Louisville is expected to be without four players vs. the Irish. Starting TE Jordan Davis is out for the first two games of the year due to an academic issue. He has started five games and has 111 receiving yards in the past two seasons. Also, junior safety TreSean Smith is serving an indefinite suspension. Smith has 70 career tackles in his first two seasons with the Cardinals.

Junior LB P.J. Blue is out for the season with a torn ACL. Blue recorded 39 tackles and two tackles for loss in 2018.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 1
Joe Williams

College Football Week 1 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 79-9
Against the Spread 41-45-2

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 70-14
Against the Spread 39-43-2

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 39-48-2

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up (neutral site) 3-1

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Against the spread (neutral site) 2-2

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 0-4

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Georgia State (+24.5, ML +1750) at Tennessee, 38-30
Wyoming (+17.5, ML +600) vs. Missouri, 37-31
North Carolina (+11.5, ML +375) vs. South Carolina, 24-20
Nevada (+11, ML +320) vs. Purdue, 34-31
Hawaii (+10.5, ML +300) vs. Arizona, 45-38
Central Arkansas (+10.5, ML +265) at Western Kentucky, 35-28
The largest favorites to cover
UCF (-44) vs. Florida A&M, 62-0
Temple (-42) vs. Bucknell, 56-12
Penn State (-41.5) vs. Idaho, 79-7
Clemson (-36.5) vs. Georgia Tech, 52-14
Alabama (-35) vs. Duke, 42-3

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)
-- Boston College picked up a 35-28 victory at home against Virginia Tech as four-point underdogs. The key was a 21-point second quarter, as the Eagles beat the Hokies for the second consecutive season. ... Clemson registered a 52-14 victory over Georgia Tech in Death Valley. With 6:11 to go, the Tigers hit a 51-yard field goal to increase their lead from 49-14, and they covered as a result. ... Florida State had their game against Boise State moved from TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville to their home stadium in Tallahassee due to the approaching Hurricane Dorian. The Seminoles took a 31-19 lead into halftime, but they were outscored 17-0 in the second half to lose to the Broncos. ... Syracuse hit the road for Liberty to open the season, winning 24-0 to cover a 19 1/2-point number.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)
-- Boston College picked up a 35-28 victory at home against Virginia Tech as four-point underdogs. The key was a 21-point second quarter, as the Eagles beat the Hokies for the second consecutive season. ... Clemson registered a 52-14 victory over Georgia Tech in Death Valley. With 6:11 to go, the Tigers hit a 51-yard field goal to increase their lead from 49-14, and they covered as a result. ... Florida State had their game against Boise State moved from TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville to their home stadium in Tallahassee due to the approaching Hurricane Dorian. The Seminoles took a 31-19 lead into halftime, but they were outscored 17-0 in the second half to lose to the Broncos. ... Syracuse hit the road for Liberty to open the season, winning 24-0 to cover a 19 1/2-point number.

BIG TEN
-- Wisconsin opened on the road Friday night at South Florida, and the heat and humidity of Florida was no obstacle for the Badgers. They ran roughshod over the Bulls to win 49-0 as the 'under' (58) cashed. ... Minnesota struggled with FCS South Dakota State on Thursday, trailing 21-20 after three quarters. The Gophers picked up a touchdown and two-point conversion to avoid the upset. ... Michigan State fired out to a 25-0 lead in Friday's home opener against Tulsa, and it looked like the rout was on. However, there were a total of just three points between the two teams, as the 'under' (47.5) easily connected. ... Ohio State also fired out of the box in the first quarter against Florida Atlantic, taking a 28-0 lead midway through the first 15 minutes. The Owls settled down and outscored the Buckeyes 21-17 in the final three quarters, earning the cover. ... Rutgers fell behind by a 21-7 score after one quarter, but they rattled off 31 points in the second quarter, and the Scarlet Knights outscored Massachusetts by a 41-0 count to end the game.

BIG 12
-- Oklahoma received an impressive performance from QB Jalen Hurts in his team debut, as the Sooners exacted a little revenge against Houston on Sunday night, winning 49-31. If you were holding an 'under' (80) ticket, you were probably none too pleased with how this one ended. ... West Virginia won 20-13 over FCS James Madison, and that might raise some eyebrows. However, the Mountaineers were only favored by seven, so this was a push. The Dukes of JMU are a solid FCS club, as they entered ranked No. 2 in the FCS. ... Iowa State also avoided the upset bug against FCS Northern Iowa, needing triple-overtime to push aside the Panthers by a 29-26 count. It was 13-13 after regulation, but the three-overtime run ended up pushing this total over (41.5). ... Kansas kicked off the Les Miles era with a narrow 24-17 win against FCS Indiana State, nearly losing to a lower-division team for the second straight season after Nicholls got 'em in 2018. Speaking of Nicholls, they fell 49-14 against Kansas State, as they avoided the upset bid from a lesser team.

CONFERENCE USA
-- The conference didn't have the best of weeks, going 8-6 SU and 5-9 ATS. Texas-San Antonio earned the 35-7 win against FCS Incarnate Word to easily cover a 9 1/2-point number. ... Western Kentucky wasn't as fortunate, losing in front of the home faithful against FCS Central Arkansas, a team outside of the Top 25 in the FCS preseason poll. ... Alabama-Birmingham was able to avoid a major upset at home against FCS Alabama State. The Blazers were favored by 40, but only squeaked out a 24-19 win. ... Florida International suffered a lopsided loss at Tulane, and this was a bad beat as far as the total is concerned. ...Texas-El Paso certainly didn't dominate, but they topped FCS Houston Baptist to move to 1-0 SU for the first time since Sept. 3, 2016. It was their first win in front of the home fans since Nov. 26, 2016, too.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)
-- Bowling Green roughed up FCS Morgan state by a 46-3 score at Doyt Perry Stadium as the 'under' (50.5) just came in. ... Akron got off to an extremely sluggish start, getting buried at Illinois by a 42-3 count. The Zips allowed 14 points in each of the first three quarters before a scoreless fourth for both sides. ... Eastern Michigan hit the beach on Saturday, scratching out a 30-23 win at Coastal Carolina. ... Ball State hung on for a cover as 18-point underdogs against Indiana, falling 34-24 in Muncie.

MOUNTAIN WEST
-- San Jose State posted a 35-18 win against FCS Northern Colorado, narrowly missing a cover as 17 1/2-point favorites. ... Utah State was able to pick up a cover as five-point 'dogs at Wake Forest, falling 38-35 in the Triad. ... Nevada stunned Purdue in Reno, outscoring the Boilermakers by a 17-0 count in the fourth quarter. The Wolfpack scored 10 points in the final :52, as the total cashed, as well as making winners of moneyline bettors in a crazy finish. ... Hawaii kicked off the season in Week 0 with a 45-38 shootout victory against Arizona as the over (70) easily cashed.

PAC-12
-- USC might have picked up the 31-23 win against Fresno State of the MWC, but the Trojans ended up losing QB JT Daniels for the season due to a knee injury. The Bulldogs outscored the Trojans 10-0 in the fourth quarter to earn the road cover. ... UCLA opened with a 24-14 road loss against Cincinnati as the Bearcats covered the 2 1/2-point number as the 'under' (55.5) connected. ... Oregon looked to have their neutral-site game against Auburn in the bag at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Tex. ... Utah opened the season with an impressive 30-12 road win against Brigham Young in the Holy War, easily covering a five-point number. ... Washington State rubbed out New Mexico State by a 58-7 count to cover 33 points, but just missed the over (65.5).

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)
-- Mississippi struggled offensively in their trip to the Liberty Bowl, falling 15-10 to Memphis. The Tigers fired out to a 13-0 lead and ended up hanging on, getting a safety with 2:44 to go to change a push at most shops into a cover. ... Alabama was a little sluggish out of the gate, leading just 14-3 against Duke at halftime after a scoreless first quarter. However, the Crimson Tide roughed up the Blue Devils by a 28-0 count in the second half to run away with a 42-3 win and cover the 33 1/2-point spread. ... The big upset of the weekend was Georgia State winning at Tennessee as 24 1/2-point underdogs, cashing a huge check and taking a win back to Atlanta. ... South Carolina blew a 20-9 lead heading into the fourth quarter, as North Carolina stormed back 15-0 at Bank of America Stadium to cause Mack Brown to bust a move after the win.

SUN BELT
-- Outside of Georgia State's win, there wasn't a lot to crow about for Sun Belt teams. As mentioned, Coastal Carolina lost at home to EMU, and Arkansas State was upended by a 37-30 count against SMU. ... Texas State played the entire 60 minutes, much to the dismay of Texas A&M side bettors. The Aggies made it 41-0 with 4:57 to go, but the Bobcats hit a 27-yard pass play for score to cause a push at most shops.

Bad Beats
-- Toledo scored a touchdown with 62 seconds remaining at Kentucky, cutting the Wildcats' lead to 38-24. Kentucky ended up still covering, but the late score caused the total to flip.

-- If you were holding an 'over' ticket in FIU-Tulane, you weren't a happy camper. At the end of three quarters there were 56 points on the board with a total of 58.5. That's exactly how it ended, too, after a scoreless fourth quarter.

-- Stanford led 10-7 over Northwestern, but the Cardinal had a sack, fumble and recovery for touchdown with just 20 seconds left to flip a sure Wildcats cover in to a winning ticket for Cardinal side bettors.

[Udog]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 1
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the first big college football weekend. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Cincinnati (-2½) 24, UCLA 14: The Bearcats opened as a 4-point favorite and led by only three through three quarters, struggling to pull away from the Bruins with several missed scoring opportunities. On the first play of the fourth quarter, Cincinnati struck for a 21-yard touchdown pass to lead by 10 and then watched UCLA have turnovers on its next two possessions.

Clemson (-36½) 52, Georgia Tech 14: The Tigers did not have trouble in this game, but a 35-0 edge wasn’t enough to cover the spread. These teams exchanged touchdowns late in the third quarter and early in the fourth as the 35-point margin held on a spread that was commonly just past that number. With some reserves in the game, Clemson added a 51-yard field goal with six minutes remaining for the top ranked Tigers to cover.

Texas A&M (-34) 41, Texas State 7: The Aggies scored twice late in the second quarter to take a commanding 28-0 lead into halftime, but only added three points in the third quarter. Early in the fourth, Texas A&M pushed past the spread completing a 94-yard touchdown drive and then forced two Texas State punts. The Aggies added another three points to lead 41-0, but Texas State would avoided the shutout, converting several 3rd downs on its way to the end zone in the final minute to spoil the cover for many on a spread that hovered right around 34, with winners and losers on both sides with 33½ and 34½ also common.

Arizona State (-24) 30, Kent State 7: The Sun Devils led 27-0 at halftime and wound up holding Kent State to only 200 total yards in the game. Kent State finally put a scoring drive together late in the game, finding the end zone on a 3rd-and-6 play into the fourth quarter to climb within the underdog spread. Arizona State was poised to answer, but the offense stalled near the 20-yard-line and settled for a field goal halfway through the fourth quarter to only lead by 23. That would be the final with three uneventful possessions to finish out the contest.

Michigan State (-23½) 28, Tulsa 7: Everything went right for Michigan State in the second quarter with three turnovers, a safety, and a defensive touchdown to take a 25-0 lead but Tulsa was able to find the end zone just before halftime to trail by only 18. After exchanging punts, a pass interference call gave the Spartans a new set of downs in Tulsa territory, but Michigan State had a touchdown called back for holding and had to settle for a field goal to push the margin to 21 points. There was only one first down on either side the rest of the game with a scoreless fourth quarter preserving the underdog cover.

Colorado (-11½) 52, Colorado State 31: The Rams scored early in the fourth quarter to get to within seven, eyeing a comeback upset in this rivalry game. Looking for a stop the defense pushed Colorado back with a holding call, but Steven Montez hit several quick strikes to move the Buffaloes into the end zone and back past the favorite spread at 45-31. With about four minutes to go, Colorado State fumbled deep in its own territory and Colorado ran it back for a score to put the game away with a 21-point win despite the Rams having more than 500 yards.

Nevada (+11) 34, Purdue 31: The Boilermakers appeared to be in complete control with a 31-14 edge late in the third quarter. Nevada managed a field goal to trim the deficit to 14, but despite battling turnovers Purdue still led by 14 halfway through the fourth quarter before Nevada scored with fewer than seven minutes remaining. Purdue picked up a few first downs but had to punt from midfield and Nevada put together an 87-yard scoring drive to tie the game in the final minute. Elijah Sindelar was intercepted on second down and Nevada ran down the clock and despite getting pushed back with a penalty. The Wolf Pack would win on a 56-yard field goal from walk-on kicker Brandon Talton, while getting a 5-0 turnover edge in the game for the upset.

Ohio State (-27½) 45, Florida Atlantic 21: Those laying the points with Ohio State had to feel good with a 28-0 lead with still nearly seven minutes to go in the first quarter. The Owls managed two field goals in the middle quarters, but Ohio State still took a 29-point lead into the final frame. In the fourth quarter, Florida Atlantic would put together two long touchdown drives to eventually trim the deficit to just 21 points. Ohio State reached the Florida Atlantic 22-yard line with a new set of downs in the final minutes, but went backwards with a holding call and had to settle for a field goal even with Justin Fields and the first team offense still in the game. Ohio State would get a late interception to get the ball back but simply ran out the clock with backups on the final possession as the Owls snagged an improbable underdog cover.

Kentucky (-9) 38, Toledo 24: This contest smelled like a potential upset spot and an opening line near two touchdowns fell to below double-digits by kickoff. A competitive game was in store with Kentucky leading 24-17 into the fourth quarter before completing a 92-yard touchdown drive finished off with a 40-yard run from Kavosiey Smoke. An interception two plays later from Toledo backup quarterback Carter Bradley doomed the Rockets and a short-field score put the Wildcats up by 21 with just over five minutes to go. Kentucky would fumble to give the ball back to Toledo late in the game and the Rockets added a touchdown with about a minute remaining, but didn’t quite reach the underdog spread. However, for most that late touchdown pushed the total just ‘over’.

Mississippi State (-18½) 38, UL-Lafayette 28: In New Orleans, the heavily favored Bulldogs moved the ball with ease on the ground but didn’t build a big lead with two first half fumbles including a punt return miscue that led to a huge field position swing, while also missing a short field goal. Despite keeping the Ragin’ Cajuns in the game, Mississippi State managed to lead by 21 early in the fourth quarter, even with the common spread that dipped before kickoff with the late announcement of suspensions for the Bulldogs. Louisiana-Lafayette would score two short-field touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make the yardage and scoring for the game much more respectable in a sloppy opening contest on both sides.

Memphis (-3½) 15, Mississippi 10: This spread on this game dropped from -6½ down to just -3½ by kickoff and a tight finish was in order even after a 13-0 lead at halftime for Memphis with a missed PAT potentially looming large. Ole Miss had minimal yardage in the game but climbed to within three early in the fourth quarter, getting a touchdown after Memphis came up short going for it on 4th-and-1 just across midfield. Ultimately the difference on the scoreboard for many wound up being a safety on a sack with the Rebels pinned back to the two-yard-line, putting the margin from three to five. That was where the final ended up with Memphis being able to take a knee in the final seconds inside the Ole Miss 20-yard-line.

Eastern Michigan (-4) 30, Coastal Carolina 23: The spread on this game fell from -6 to just -4 and those numbers were in play late in the game. Coastal Carolina led at halftime but Eastern Michigan took control from there and led 30-20 with about five minutes remaining. The Chanticleers were on the doorstep with 1st-and-goal but didn’t pick up yardage and wound up settling for a 26-yard field goal that was inexplicably missed. The defense forced a quick 3-and-out to get the ball back but again settled for a field goal instead of a spread-spoiling touchdown in the final minute. The Chanticleers actually got the on-side kick but wound up throwing an interception on 1st down.

North Carolina (+11½) 24, South Carolina 20: This spread climbed sharply during the week with an opener of 7½ skyrocketing to close at 11½. South Carolina would lead by 11 heading into the fourth quarter, but the Tar Heels would put together two touchdown drives of more than 90 yards in the fourth quarter for a stunning finish. South Carolina would have four more possessions in the game but Jake Bentley was intercepted twice as the Tar Heels hung on to win narrowly despite massive production edges for the game.

Alabama (-33½) 42, Duke 3: Alabama didn’t score in the first quarter and had a modest 14-3 lead at halftime before scoring three touchdowns in the span of only about seven minutes late in the third quarter to pull away. With a 35-3 edge, the Tide were just short of the common spreads on the game that reached as high as 34½. Duke had three second half turnovers but Alabama missed a field goal that could have put the margin at 35. Finally Tide backers got the breakthrough they needed as Jerome Ford ran for a 37-yard touchdown to put the favorite in position to cover for the first time with fewer than five minutes remaining. The defense intercepted Quentin Harris for a touchback in the final minute as Duke couldn’t get back within the number.

Stanford (-6½) 17, Northwestern 7: Stanford led 10-0 at halftime, but would lose quarterback K.J. Costello. Northwestern appeared poised to score to start the second half but wound up fumbling at the Stanford 5-yard-line. The Cardinal would give the ball back a few plays later but ultimately no points were added as Northwestern missed a field goal. Later in the third, the roles reversed with a Northwestern interception and then Stanford missing a 29-yard kick. The Wildcats would convert a 4th down in the red zone and eventually added a touchdown to trail 10-7 and then got the ball back after a Stanford fumble. Punts followed and on a late desperation possession a strip sack led to a Stanford touchdown as the Cardinal escaped with the win and cover.

Syracuse (-19½) 24, Liberty 0: The Liberty defense did its job allowing just 17 points through three quarters vs. Syracuse and two of those drives were very short drives off good field position. The Flames wound up with four turnovers on offense plus a missed field goal. Early in the fourth the quarter, the Orange put together its best offensive drive of the game to take a 24-0 edge and the Flames botched two late opportunities to add points, failing going for it on 4th down once and then later fumbling near the red zone.

Boise State (+7) 36, Florida State 31: Boise State wound up playing a true road game to start the season and fell behind 24-6 early in the second quarter. By halftime, the Broncos were able to get within 12 and in the second half the defense stepped up while freshman Hank Bachmeier made a name for himself. The second half started with five straight punts and then an exchange of fumbles before the Broncos got back within the spread late in the third quarter, down by five on a spread that was as low as -3½ in Jacksonville but climbed quickly to -6½ with the move to Tallahassee. Early in the fourth, the Broncos again delivered an efficient touchdown drive to take the lead and the FSU offense remained quiet. Boise State would settle for a short field goal halfway through the fourth quarter to lead by six but then held Florida State to negative yards on the next drive and then in a final desperation possession, the Seminoles went backwards with a holding penalty and ultimately fell short faced with a 4th-and-long.

SMU (+1) 37, Arkansas State 30: This contest featured some big momentum swings as an early Arkansas State lead disappeared by halftime and then back-to-back touchdowns put the Red Wolves up by seven halfway through the third quarter. A 98-yard kickoff return touchdown followed to shift the momentum back to the Mustangs who would add two more touchdowns to lead by 14 in the fourth quarter. Arkansas State scored with six minutes to go to get back within one score and overtime looked possible with a new set of downs on the SMU 25-yard-line in the final seconds. Ultimately a fourth-down sack ended the game for a narrow SMU win.

Iowa (-25½) 38, Miami, OH 14: Iowa led only 10-7 at halftime, but took control in the third quarter with a pair of touchdowns to lead by 17 on a spread that climbed steadily from -21½ to -25½. Led by Brett Gabbert, Miami was able to get what appeared to be a spread-saving touchdown in the fourth quarter to put the margin at only 10 points. Iowa wound go for the touchdown on 4th down near the end zone and succeed to lead by 17 with about six minutes left. On its next offensive snap, Miami threw an interception and a few plays later Iowa was back in the end zone and suddenly up by 24 to earn the favorite cover for most though shortly before kickoff the spread climbed further for the closing line of 25½ that calls Miami a winner.

Georgia (-22½) 30, Vanderbilt 6: Georgia commanded a lot of attention as a heavy road favorite in this SEC opener but a pair of field goals before halftime kept the Commodores in play. The Bulldogs added only three points in the entire third quarter to lead by just 18 and then fumbled in Vanderbilt territory early in the fourth quarter. The Commodores didn’t take advantage but managed to stay in position to cover by holding Georgia to another field goal. Near midfield, Riley Neal fumbled to thwart a potential scoring chance for Vanderbilt and Georgia again kicked for three, this time to move pas the favorite spread with just over two minutes remaining. With Deuce Wallace at quarterback, Vanderbilt was a threat to score late but from the Georgia 18-yard line four consecutive incomplete passes ended that chance.

Auburn (-4) 27, Oregon 21: In the showcase game Saturday night, the first half featured missed field goals and turnovers on both sides as Oregon led 14-6. The Ducks used a strong punt return for good field position to set-up a touchdown drive to lead 21-6 early in the third quarter. Auburn would control the game from there with the Ducks punting three straight times while Auburn scored two touchdowns, to close to within one point down 21-20. Oregon wound up just across midfield with over five minutes remaining before getting a big scare with Justin Herbert injured. He had to sit out on a critical 4th-and-short play that was stuffed by Auburn. The Tigers went 3-and-out from there but the defense held to get the ball back with just over two minutes to go in good field position. Bo Nix scrambled to narrowly convert a 4th down and Auburn reached field goal range in the final seconds. Opting to take one shot down the field Nix hit Seth Williams just outside the end zone and he gathered the ball and dove in for the go-ahead score on both the scoreboard and the pointspread. Oregon did get a favorable Hail Mary position from past midfield but Herbert threw over the end zone for stunning collapse for the Ducks.

USC (-14) 31, Fresno State 23: The Bulldogs hung right with the Trojans on the scoreboard and the box score, trailing by just four after a field goal halfway through the third quarter. Their kickoff was returned 100 yards for a touchdown however and USC would add another quick touchdown later in the third quarter to suddenly lead by 18. While USC backup quarterback Kedon Slovis started hot, he threw a late third quarter interception taking a deep shot and Fresno State was able to go 80 yards for a field goal to trim the margin to 15 points, not quite enough on a spread that climbed substantially from the opening price. Fresno State’s defense held again and on the next drive the Bulldogs were within one score after a touchdown with about seven minutes to go. The overtime threat lingered after Fresno State converted a 4th down near midfield, but on the next play Jorge Reyna was intercepted in the end zone as USC held on.

Oklahoma (-22) 49, Houston 31: Jalen Hurts certainly had a great Oklahoma debut and could very well continue the Heisman run for Sooners quarterbacks if he keeps up the pace. Oklahoma led by 25 through three quarters but Houston would get its offense going in the fourth quarter, ultimately getting nearly half of its game production in the final frame with two touchdowns bringing the margin briefly to only 11 points. Oklahoma ended any thoughts of a miracle comeback with a short-field score after Houston wasn’t able to bring in the on-side kick but the final 18-point margin kept the underdog cover in place.