Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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Teams to Watch - Week 3
September 19, 2018
By YouWager.eu

Futures Forecast Predictions, top picks, teams to avoid for Week 3

Since the start of the NFL season, we have been running a new weekly feature where we look at teams to play and avoid in the upcoming batch of games. We are heading into Week 3 with the hope that these picks will continue to get better, as we are now starting to get a sense of the contenders and the pretenders.

There have already been a couple of surprises, with a few supposed better teams getting of to slow starts, while a couple of dark horses have emerged in the early going. Without further ado, let’s look ahead to Week 3 of the NFL schedule for our picks.

There are some really interesting games on tap this coming weekend and more interesting are the odds, props and futures offered by YouWager.eu, so let’s get right to the action.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-3)

Two weeks into the season and the Cleveland Browns are once again winless, but they have reached that point in somewhat unlucky fashion. Back to back weeks of kicker errors have cost them a perfect record, yet I get the sense that this may be the week when they finally break through and get the win. The Jets looked very good in Week 1, but Sam Darnold was made to look very much like the rookie he is in Week 2. I think he is going to have another rough go of it on the road in Cleveland in front of a fan base desperate for a win. This may come back to haunt me on Thursday night, but I am going to play the Cleveland Browns.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-5)

One of the surprise teams to start the season are the Denver Broncos. They looked like a mess in preseason, as it appeared as though their QB issues were going to continue into this year. That has not been the case, though, as they come into this week with a perfect 2-0 record. The ravens looked like world beaters in Week 1 against the Buffalo Bills, but we have quickly come to see just how bad that Bills team really is. The Ravens were brought back to earth in Week 2 in a loss to the Bengals, and while I think they might get the SU win at home, when it comes to betting ATS, avoid the Baltimore Ravens.

San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs (-6 ½)

The Kansas City Chiefs have had a very talented team for the past few season, but as good as they have been, Alex Smith was seemingly not the QB to take them over the top. They shipped Smith out and decided to hand the reins to unproven Patrick Mahomes and has that move ever paid dividends. The Chiefs offense looks unstoppable, with the young QB throwing 1o TD passes through the opening 2 weeks of the season. The 49ers had all the hype coming into this season, but they have yet to live up to it. I am all in on Mahomes, which is why I suggest you play the Kansas City Chiefs.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

All is not well in the Steel City. The Steelers are winless (1-0-1) through the opening two weeks, LeVeon Bell has still not shown up, and now word is that Antonio Brown, who was having a sideline meltdown in Week 2, was not around for the Monday meetings. The Steelers came into this season as a Super Bowl favorite, but their stock is dropping rapidly. They now have to head to Tampa Bay to face a team on fire, with backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick posting huge numbers. Pittsburgh are historically very good on Monday night, but I am still going to avoid the Steelers.

[StarDust Bum]

Darnold can show up Browns on TNF
September 19, 2018
By The Associated Press

CLEVELAND (AP) Sam Darnold once thought he'd be wearing an orange helmet just a few shades brighter than his hair color.

But the former USC star wasn't precisely what the Browns were looking for in a franchise quarterback in the NFL draft. Darnold checked most of the boxes, but not all of them and Cleveland passed on him with the No. 1 overall pick, selecting Baker Mayfield instead.

On Thursday night, Darnold can show the Browns they made a mistake.

Another one.

The youngest quarterback to start a season opener since 1970, Darnold will perform on a national TV stage for the second time already as a pro when he leads the New York Jets into FirstEnergy Stadium to face the Browns, who have played well enough to win their first two games but are still searching for their first victory since Dec. 24, 2016.

Heading into April's draft, Darnold was considered the top of the deep 2018 QB class and it appeared he would wind up in Cleveland, where quarterbacks have come and gone like restaurant busboys over the past two decades.

''Yeah, I thought I could've ended up there or several other teams,'' Darnold said this week. ''I was excited to go anywhere. ''Whoever wanted me, whoever wanted to pick me as a top pick, to me it was a dream come true right when it happened.''

After the Browns nabbed Mayfield and the Giants grabbed running back Saquon Barkley, the Jets took Darnold and have been more than satisfied by his early development.

He rebounded from throwing an interception that was returned for a TD on his first pass attempt in the opener and led the Jets to a 31-point win, and last week the 21-year-old became the youngest QB to pass for 300 yards.

Darnold insists he's not seeking any revenge or trying to prove anything to the Browns.

''No,'' he said. ''I'm just going to go out there and play ball.''

The Jets and Browns are on divergent paths with their rookie quarterbacks. New York has chosen to start Darnold, while Cleveland is holding Mayfield out to watch and learn behind Tyrod Taylor.

It's not a race and the Browns feel no need to rush their plan.

''We feel very comfortable with the guy that we selected in Baker, and I'm sure they do with him,'' coach Hue Jackson said. ''He's a fine prospect and is going to be a fine player. I think they got a good one, but we feel we have a really good one, too.''

After facing Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees - two future Hall of Famers - in Weeks 1 and 2, the Browns aren't looking at Darnold as any break.

''I don't think that any game in the NFL is a breather,'' said linebacker Joe Schobert.

''He's got a big arm. He's doing good things as their quarterback. The hardest thing to do is come into the NFL and play quarterback and be successful. And he's so far shown himself to be pretty poised and good at it.''

PRESSURE PACKED

The Browns are down and desperate. They need a win, and after stubbing their toes twice already, need to beat the Jets. A 1-1-1 record seems light years from 0-2-1.

''Our team is excited, hungry, disappointed, anxious - all of those words you want to use,'' said Jackson, who is 1-32-1 in two seasons. ''We just need to get it done.''

BACK `HOME''

The Dawg Pound will be a homecoming of sorts for several current Jets, who are former Browns.

Running back Isaiah Crowell played the past four years in Cleveland. Wide receiver Terrelle Pryor spent two seasons with the Browns, including a breakout campaign in 2016 when the former quarterback had 1,007 yards. His QB for parts of those seasons was Josh McCown, now Darnold's backup and mentor.

Cornerback Buster Skrine played in Cleveland from 2011-14. Jets coach Todd Bowles, too, has Cleveland connections as an assistant under Butch Davis from 2001-04.

ALIVE & KICKING

Greg Joseph was on the beach hanging out with friends last weekend, ''you know, just living the South Florida life.'' Things changed quickly.

The rookie is now in the spotlight - or crosshairs - as Cleveland's new kicker. Joseph signed this week after the Browns cut Zane Gonzalez for missing two field goals and two extra points last week.

Joseph, who spent the preseason with Miami, is excited about the opportunity.

''My film's out there. My stats are out there,'' he said. ''I learned a lot about me, the athlete I am and the competitor I am. I'm ready to bring it here.''

Q IS THE ANSWER

Darnold's favorite target through two games has been wide receiver Quincy Enunwa, who has a team-leading 13 catches for 155 yards and a touchdown. Enunwa has been targeted 21 times, more than Pryor (11), Robby Anderson (six) and Jermaine Kearse (two) combined.

SACK RACE

The Jets got their first four sacks of the season last Sunday against Miami, the most since getting to Taylor seven times when he played with Buffalo in Week 9 last season.

''The whole unit, we definitely picked it up last week,'' defensive end Leonard Williams said. ''We didn't have any sacks in the first week, even though they got the ball out pretty quickly. At the same time, I don't want to make excuses. We definitely picked it up last week and I hope we continue to make strides on that.''

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Jets-Browns Capsule
September 19, 2018
By The Associated Press

NEW YORK JETS (1-1) at CLEVELAND (0-1-1)

Thursday 8:20 p.m. EDT, NFL Network

OPENING LINE - Browns by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Jets 1-1, Browns 2-0

SERIES RECORD - Browns lead 13-12

LAST MEETING - Jets beat Browns 17-14, Oct. 8, 2017

LAST WEEK - Jets lost to Dolphins 20-12; Browns lost to Saints 21-18

AP PRO32 RANKING - Jets No. 21, Browns No. 26

JETS OFFENSE - OVERALL (18), RUSH (16), PASS (15)

JETS DEFENSE - OVERALL (5), RUSH (11), PASS (18)

BROWNS OFFENSE - OVERALL (23), RUSH (5), PASS (27).

BROWNS DEFENSE - OVERALL (20), RUSH (20), PASS (20).

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Teams which kicked off prime-time football meet again on national TV. Jets and Browns played first Monday night game in 1970, 31-21 win for Cleveland. ... Jets have won past five meetings. ... Jets rookie QB Sam Darnold gets to show Browns what they passed up in draft. Cleveland decided not to pick Darnold No. 1 overall and instead selected Baker Mayfield, currently backing up Tyrod Taylor. ... Darnold, 21, became youngest opening weekend QB since league merger in 1970 on Sept. 10 and threw two TDs against Detroit. ... Darnold became youngest QB to throw for 300 yards (334) last week vs. Miami. ... Jets playing third game in 11 days. ... New York has been strong in third quarters, scoring on opening drives and outscoring opponents 37-7. ... Jets have four former Browns, including starting RB Isaiah Crowell, WR Terrelle Pryor, CB Buster Skrine and QB Josh McCown, who started 2015 season opener for Browns vs. Jets. ... Jets had four sacks last week. .. Browns get only moment in national spotlight this season with first prime-time home game since 2015. ... Cleveland looks to end 19-game winless streak and get first victory since Dec. 24, 2016. ... Browns have been close in first two games, but penalties and special teams blunders have been costly. ... Browns cut K Zane Gonzalez after he missed two field-goal tries and two extra points last week in New Orleans. ... Rookie K Greg Joseph signed following tryout and will make NFL debut. He was with Miami in training camp. ... Taylor bounced back from rocky opener and completed 22 of 30 passes last week for 246 yards. ... Taylor went 3-2 as starter for Buffalo vs. Jets. He passed for season-high 285 yards against New York last season but was sacked seven times. ... Browns WR Jarvis Landry has caught at least five passes in 19 straight games. ... Browns rookie WR Antonio Callaway had gorgeous 47-yard TD catch in fourth quarter last week. His role has expanded with Josh Gordon's trade. ... Browns defense has forced league-high eight takeaways in two games after getting league-low 13 all last season. Fantasy tip: Browns could make extra effort to get ball to RB Duke Johnson, who has just 11 touches after two games. Johnson has most yards receiving (1,741) through three seasons since any back since 1999.

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Baker vs. Sam? Sorry, not this Thursday
September 19, 2018
By The Associated Press

We sure have been waiting for this Thursday night showcase. Top overall draft pick Baker Mayfield vs. No. 3 selection Sam Darnold, a mano a mano between the rookie quarterbacks.

Oh, wait. Mayfield is a bench jockey in Cleveland right now, while Darnold is winging touchdowns and interceptions for the Jets.

Enthusiasm peaked after Darnold destroyed Detroit in New York's opener, then came to a near halt when he struggled against Miami. The Browns have a developing defense led by the NFL's No. 1 draft choice in 2017, Myles Garrett. If Darnold can stay upright and cool, New York could win.

But that's hardly the history for the Jets. You know, just when things are looking up ...

The Jets, ranked 21st in the AP Pro32, are 3-point underdogs to No. 26 Cleveland. That's the value of a field goal, or three extra points. Maybe in the Browns' case, we shouldn't go there considering what happened in New Orleans with all the flubbed kicks.

Of course, they have a new kicker - and will get their first win of the century. Well, not quite that long.

BROWNS, 17-16

KNOCKOUT POOL

Yes, we survived with the Rams after the Saints let us down in Week 1. Can't ignore that huge spread in Minnesota, so the VIKINGS are the choice.

No. 20 San Francisco (plus 6 1-2) at No. 4 Kansas City

This line appears a bit low given the Niners' struggles at times with the lowly Lions. Like the Ma-HOME-s team here.

BEST BET: CHIEFS, 31-20

No. 18 Pittsburgh (minus 2) at No. 8 Tampa Bay, Monday night

Obviously, the oddsmakers don't believe in FitzMagic. Against this leaky secondary and turnover-prone opponent, we do.

UPSET SPECIAL: BUCS, 30-26

No. 32 Buffalo (plus 17) at No. 3 Minnesota

Buffalo once was an even bigger underdog at 17+ points vs. Miami in 1985. Dolphins won 28-0.

FYI, 80 teams have been 16-point or more underdogs and, forgetting the spread, went 5-75 on the scoreboard.

VIKINGS, 28-0

No. 14 Los Angeles Chargers (plus 7) at No. 1 Los Angeles Rams

Remember when La La Land had no NFL teams?

RAMS, 22-17

No. 17 Chicago (minus 6) at No. 31 Arizona

Some will tell you the desert has no team this year.

BEARS, 12-10

No. 24 Indianapolis (plus 6) at No. 7 Philadelphia

Looks like Carson Wentz will be back for Eagles, but don't expect too much so soon.

EAGLES, 23-19

No. 15 New Orleans (plus 3) at No. 9 Atlanta

Saints are struggling, Falcons are banged up. Key early NFC South matchup.

SAINTS, 28-27

No. 29 New York Giants (plus 6) at No. 28 Houston

Now Eli has to avoid J.J. and Jadeveon? SACK ALERT!!!

TEXANS, 20-9

No. 27 Oakland (plus 3) at No. 13 Miami

Dolphins are one of league's most pleasant surprises and remain unbeaten.

DOLPHINS, 24-17

No. 10 Cincinnati (plus 3) at No. 12 Carolina

Bengals are one of league's most pleasant surprises and don't remain unbeaten.

PANTHERS, 22-20

No. 6 Green Bay (minus 3) at No. 22 Washington

We now are sure even a hobbled A-Rod is an elite quarterback. But that secondary is woeful.

PACKERS, 30-28

No. 11 Denver (plus 5) at No. 16 Baltimore

Return of the Orange Crush. This could be defensive gem.

RAVENS, 17-16

No. 19 Dallas (minus 1) at No. 25 Seattle

Cowboys can rush QB, Seahawks can't protect QB. Seems simple.

COWBOYS, 18-6

No. 5 New England (minus 6 1-2) at No. 30 Detroit

Will Belichick go easy on former assistant Patricia in prime time? Doubtful.

PATRIOTS 27-17

No. 23 Tennessee (no line) at No. 2 Jacksonville

Just when we were ready to make Jags the BEST BET, there's no line.

JAGUARS, 26-9

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2018 RECORD:

Last Week: Against spread (9-6). Straight up (9-6-1)

Season Totals: Against spread (17-13-1). Straight up: (19-11-2)

Best Bet: 1-1 against spread, 2-0 straight up

Upset special: 1-1 against spread, 0-1-1 straight up

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Top Wager
September 20, 2018

By Kyle Markus

NFL Preview - New York Jets at Cleveland Browns

Before the season, it looked like the matchup between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns could be between the two worst teams in the NFL. However, both teams have been surprisingly competitive in 2018.

The Browns tied the Steelers in their opener and nearly pulled off an upset of the Saints last time out. The Jets dominated the Lions in their opener before falling to the Dolphins in Week 2. The Browns are the home team in this Week 3 contest, and the oddsmakers considered these teams pretty even talent-wise.

Cleveland is the slight favorite to come away with the victory in NFL wagering.

This NFL football game between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns will be held at FirstEnergy Field in Cleveland, Ohio at 8:20 p.m ET on Thursday, September 20th, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on NFL Network.

We'll have NFL football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NFL season.

Odds Analysis

The Browns are listed as three-point favorites. They are -158 on the moneyline while the Jets are the +138 underdog to pull off the upset. The scoring total is listed at only 39.5 points, one of the lowest over/unders of the week.

It’s rare for the Browns to be a favorite and they will aim to live up to that billing in NFL gambling.

Injury Update

Browns wide receiver Jarvis Landry is questionable for the contest with a knee injury. He is a big part of the offense, with 12 catches for 175 yards thus far on the season. Landry’s presence is even more important these days because the Browns just traded star wideout Josh Gordon to the Patriots for a fifth-round pick.

Gordon was a great player when on the field but had a lot off-field issues and Cleveland finally decided to cut ties. Keep an eye on Landry’s status. Without Gordon in the fold he is clearly the team’s top receiving threat and his absence would be big.

Player To Watch

Sam Darnold -- The Jets rookie quarterback was fantastic in his first NFL start, helping lead the Jets to an upset win over the Lions on the road. He completed 76.2 percent of his passes, throwing for 198 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.

Darnold increased his yardage output to 334 against the Dolphins last time out but threw two picks in a loss to the Dolphins. He is a young player, and while talented, is going to have some growing pains.

The Browns’ defense is more talented than it is given credit for and should be able to pressure Darnold into a poor performance in this one.

Free NFL ATS Picks

The Browns went 0-16 a season ago, and despite the promising start to 2018, haven’t actually won a game yet this year. That streak will finally end in this one. Cleveland should be taken with confidence as it has the talent to pick up a win over the Jets.

The Browns are also the pick to cover as they won’t be sweating this one out in the final minute. Cleveland is finally going to beat the streak. The “under” is the choice as the Jets offense could struggle in NFL betting.

NFL ATS Pick: Cleveland Browns 20, New York Jets 14

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TNF - Jets at Browns
September 20, 2018
By Tony Mejia

N.Y. Jets at Cleveland (-3., 40), 8:20 pm ET, NFLN

How can a team that hasn't won a game since Christmas eve of 2016 be favored over a Jets (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) team that looks much improved?

The rationale is that these are fairly evenly matched sides squaring off with a short week of preparation that typically favors the home team. There's also the fact that if kicker Zane Gonzalez had done his job and made a few field goals, the Browns would be 2-0, owning wins over the Steelers and Saints. Instead, their not-so-lovely parting gifts are a tie and a demoralizing setback at the Superdome just four days ago.

Gonzalez has been waived, sabotaged by a groin pull Hue Jackson says he had no clue about before all the mishaps in New Orelans. There's a new kicker in town, Florida Atlantic product Greg Joseph, a rookie who performed well with Miami in the preseason. There is also a renewed belief that this team can legitimately win some games and compete for a playoff spot, something they haven't done since winning 10 and still missing out in 2007.

Oddsmakers are cautious believers and have made the Browns (0-1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) a favorite for the first time since last Sept. 24 when they were a one-point 'chalk' at the Andrew Luck-less Colts.

Before that, you have to go back to Nov. 30 of '15 for the last time Cleveland was favored, laying six points against Baltimore. The Browns lost both those games and haven't won and covered a game where they entered as the favorite since Oct. 26, 2014.

Despite that little nugget, the betting public believes in the Browns too, according to the early betting action. Although No. 3 pick Sam Darnold's Monday night debut in a win over Detroit gained universal acclaim despite his first pass resulting in a pick-six, the rookie's Week 2 showing in a loss to Miami wasn't as impressive. Making his third pro start on just a few days rest may allow him to focus on keeping things simple or may ultimately prove too much to overcome.

New York was favored at home against Miami by its largest closing number (-3) since the 2015 regular-season finale and had covered four of five as a favorite before stumbling against the Dolphins. Miami led 20-0 at the break, Darnold was intercepted twice and the Jets fumbled four times, losing only one. Darnold will make mistakes since he's learning on the job, but being smarter with the football is definitely a priority as he heads the road again for his Thurday night debut and third game in 11 days.

The Dolphins loss was disappointing for New York for many reasons, starting with the fact that optimism was sky high for the home opener with a new franchise QB in place and the Jets came out flat. Darnold's first pick led to a score. A Robbie Anderson fumbled led to the next Dolphins touchdown.

As they tried getting back in the game, scoring to open the second half and then immediately getting the ball back on a sack and fumble recovery from Jordan Jenkins, Darnold threw his second pick in the end zone on the very next play.

Same old Jets?

Darnold did manage to throw for an NYJ rookie-record 334 yards, getting the ball out quickly and decisively. Miami was able to run out the final six minutes, converting on multiple third downs to keep its defense from having to even take the field again, so it will be interesting to see how the first few drives in this one go. Although everyone remembers that the Lions game became a blowout thanks to a 31-point third quarter, another slow start could be the continuation of a troubling trend.

The Browns may be in the same boat since they're still looking for their first first-half touchdown of the season. Fortunately, the defense has been on point as neither the Steelers nor Saints managed to do much early against Gregg Williams' blitz-heavy approach. The unit has forced five fumbles, picked off three passes and registered seven sacks, ranking first in the NFL in turnover margin (+6).

Since Myles Garrett has been getting pressure on his own, elite quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees, lock future Hall of Famers, have been sped up. Combined, those two have 33 years of professional experience. Darnold is playing his third game.

The Jets have plenty of experience game-planning for Tyrod Taylor given his time in the AFC East running the Bills offense and have had major issues containing his arm and his legs, losing three of five meetings. We'll see how the dual-threat fares against an old nemesis in his second outing as Browns starter.

Barring injury, don't expect to see No. 1 pick Baker Mayfield get out there since Taylor has done his best work late in games and proven that he gives the Browns their best chance to win, leading the team in rushing in addition to his 443 passing yards.

Although Cleveland was hoping that Josh Gordon would return to prominence as the team's top receiver, it traded him to New England on Monday after he injured his hamstring in an event that wasn't sanctioned, finally cutting ties with him and getting a conditional fifth-round pick in return. Jarvis Landy, rookie Antonio Callaway, slot receiver Rashard Higgins and tight end David Njoku are left as Taylor's main receiving weapons while vets Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson join rookie Nick Chubb in a talented backfield.

On paper, there's more talent on the Cleveland roster than on New York's 53, but that only goes so far when you haven't tasted victory in nearly 21 months. The Jets are looking for their first 2-1 start since 2015. They've beaten the Browns in five straight, covering each time. We should see a little wind and a few gusts, but for the most part, expect a clear night on the southern shore of Lake Erie.


New York Jets
Season win total: 6 (Over +110, Under -130)
Odds to win AFC East: 10/1 to 15/1
Odds to win AFC: 50/1 to 100/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 200/1

Cleveland Browns
Season win total: 6 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win AFC North: 10/1 to 12/1
Odds to win AFC: 40/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 80/1 to 100/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Although Pittsburgh enters the week tied with Cleveland and Le'Veon Bell is set to miss another week, so the Westgate LV Superbook still has Pittsburgh (3/2) is still favored to win the AFC North with the Ravens right behind them at 11/5, up from the 4/1 they opened at. Cincinnati is the current leader at 2-0 and has moved from an opening number of 10/1 to win the AFC North to 2/1. The Browns are at 12/1, which is certainly good value since this division suddenly looks wide open and they're favored to move to 1-1-1 here.

The Jets came in ahead of only the Bills (20/1) when the season began as far as the AFC East is concerned, even with Miami at 10/1 while favored New England came in at 1/8. Despite losing to Jacksonville last week, the Pats haven't budged from 1/8 whle current leader Miami is up to 5/1. The Jets are now 15/1 and the hapless Bills are now 500-to-1, begging for some action.

In this Week 3 opener, the Browns were favored by 1.5 points last Wednesday when future lines went out via Westgate but the Browns moved to a 3-point chalk, which is where that number is curently most widely availableTere are a few shops where the Jets are getting 3.5 points. The total opened at 39 and has been bet up to 40.

If you're not looking to lay the field goal, Cleveland is around -160/-170 on the money line. New York is available at +140/+150. The team totals for Cleveland is in at 21, while the Jets are hovering around 18-19.

INJURY CONCERNS

That productive Browns defense again won't have talented LB Christian Kirksey (shoulder, ankle) unless the team reverses course and has ruled out DE Emmanuel Ogbah. Both missed the Saints game, so there's confidence that their production can be replaced..

It would be more difficult to replace athletic safety Damarious Randall, who already has a pick and a fumble recovery but is questionable with a heel issue. Rookie corner Denzel Ward had two interceptions in his debut and should overcome a hamstring injury to participate. Landry, Cleveland's top receiver, is questionable with knee pain but should also play.

The Jets are the healthier of these two teams and have definitely played the lighter schedue, so we'll see if that aids their chances of pulling out a road upset. Safety Marcus Maye (foot) and LB Josh Martin will miss another game and have been out of the lineup, but WR Quincy Enunwa Ithumb) and guard James Carpenter (foot) will play. Young receiver ArDarius Stewart has served out his suspension and is also available.

RECENT MEETINGS (N.Y. Jets 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS last eight; UNDER 5-3)

10/8/17 N.Y. Jets 17-14 at Cleveland (NYJ -1.5, 41.5)
10/30/16 N.Y. Jets 31-28 at Cleveland (NYJ -2.5, 45.5)
9/13/15 N.Y. Jets 31-10 vs. Cleveland (NYJ -3.5, 39.5)
12/22/13 N.Y. Jets 24-13 vs. Cleveland (NYJ -1.5, 41.5)
11/14/10 N.Y. Jets 26-20 (OT) at Cleveland (NYJ -3.5, 37)
12/9/07 Cleveland 24-18 at N.Y. Jets (CLE -3.5, 47.5)
10/29/06 Cleveland 20-13 vs. N.Y. Jets (CLE -1.5, 37.5)
11/21/04 N.Y. Jets 10-7 at Cleveland (NYJ -1.5, 38)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/16/2018 17-8-0 68.00% +41.00
09/13/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/09/2018 15-10-1 60.00% +20.00
09/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals...............34-20-1.....62.96%.....+60.00


NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

09/16/2018.............5 - 2..................+14.00...................3 - 2...............+4.00..............+18.00
09/13/2018.............0 - 1...................-5.50.....................0 - 1................-5.50...............-11.00
09/09/2018.............4 - 4...................-2.00.....................8 - 3...............+23.50............+21.50
09/06/2018.............1 - 0..................+5.00.....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00

Totals....................10 - 7..................+11.50..................12 - 6...............+27.00............+38.50


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THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 20
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NYJ at CLE 08:20 PM

NYJ +3.0

O 41.0

[StarDust Bum]

Mayfield leads Browns past Jets, 21-17
September 20, 2018

CLEVELAND (AP) For the first time in 635 days, the Cleveland Browns found a way to win.

Baker Mayfield showed them how.

The No. 1 overall pick replaced injured starter Tyrod Taylor and sparked the Browns, who got two 1-yard touchdown runs from Carlos Hyde and beat the New York Jets 21-17 on Thursday night for their first win since Dec. 24, 2016.

And so ends Cleveland's 19-game winless streak, the NFL's second-longest since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.

The Browns (1-1-1) trailed 14-0 in the first half before Mayfield came in for Taylor and led four scoring drives while winning an unexpected matchup against Jets rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. Cleveland passed on taking Darnold in the draft and instead chose Mayfield, the Heisman Trophy winner from Oklahoma.

Mayfield finished 17 of 23 for 201 yards in a little more than a half after coming in after Taylor suffered a concussion.

Darnold had one last chance, but was intercepted by Terrence Mitchell with 11 seconds left.


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NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/20/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/16/2018 17-8-0 68.00% +41.00
09/13/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/09/2018 15-10-1 60.00% +20.00
09/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals...............34-22-1.....60.71%.....+49.00


NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

09/20/2018.............0 - 1..................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50................-11.00
09/16/2018.............5 - 2..................+14.00...................3 - 2...............+4.00..............+18.00
09/13/2018.............0 - 1...................-5.50.....................0 - 1................-5.50...............-11.00
09/09/2018.............4 - 4...................-2.00.....................8 - 3...............+23.50............+21.50
09/06/2018.............1 - 0..................+5.00.....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00

Totals....................10 - 8..................+6.00..................12 - 7...............+21.50............+27.50

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 3
September 21, 2018
By Micah Roberts

Can I interest you in some Bills, Cardinals, Raiders or Lions action this week? Those teams are certainly hard sells after two weeks of skunky play where they've collectively gone 0-8 straight up and 2-6 against the spread.

It's still all in the number.

What will it take to make you bet one of these teams? How high? Just like we've seen the last two seasons with the Browns, the number will eventually overflow to where it's attractive.

Let's take a look at some of the NFL Week 3 betting action happening in Nevada:

Colts at Eagles -6.5, 47.5

"This game hasn't moved off -6.5 all week and isn't attracting too much attention despite quarterback Carson Wentz making his debut," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews. William Hill sports books have written 78 percent of their tickets on the Eagles and also taken in 70 percent of the cash.

Bengals at Panthers -3, 43.5

"This is one of those games were going to probably bounce around with because of the flat-prices," said Andrews, referring to the fact the South Point is the only book that doesn't move a money-price to avoid moving off a key number. "They're (sharps) taking +3 with the Bengals pretty good here and I know once I move I'll get Panthers action at -2.5." Most other books around town have thePanthers -3 EVEN while Boyd Gaming books are using Panthers -2.5 -120.

Titans at Jaguars (OFF)

This game is off the board all across the state due to unknown status of Titans QB Marcus Mariota (elbow), but Andrews gave his in and out number. "If he's playing, I'd start the Jags at -7 and if he doesn't I would go with nineish or -10," he said.

Saints at Falcons -3, 53.5

"This is the same kind of thing like we have with the Panthers game," said Andrews. "The Saints +3-flat has one limit wager on it and I think will be attractive for some guys, but it's a good two-way bet game by the public so far." Station Casinos and the Westgate Las Superbook are both at -3 EVEN.

Broncos at Ravens -5, 44.5

"We took a little bit of money on the Ravens at -4.5, and it doesn't take much to move to -5," said Andrews. William Hill bet shops have 62 percent of its cash on this game taking the Broncos.

Giants at Texans -6, 42

"We've been -6 all week and we're not seeing many takers on the Giants," said Andrews.

Raiders at Dolphins -3.5, 44

"We took multiple limit wagers on the Dolphins at -3 flat and when we moved to -3.5, we just had a few small plays taking with the Raiders, " Andrews said. This is why the South Point is a great book to follow because the wise guys hanging aroundwill jump at anything attractive and there is no other +3.5s in town and no one backed the Brinks truck up for Oakland.

Packers -2.5, 45.5 at Redskins

The South Point has the only -2.5 flat in town after moving from -3 on Tuesday. "We'll go back to -3 as soon as more information comes in on Aaron Rodgers' knee," said Andrews. Rodgers is listed as probable. All the other books in town are -3 EVEN with the exception of Caesars Palace who are at -2.5 -120.

Bills at Vikings -16.5, 41

"I don't even think we have $100 bet on the Bills," Andrews joked -- maybe it was no joke. Anyway, he chuckled. "But the big number has kept the public from all piling on to the popular Vikings." Boyd Gaming and the Stratosphere have the Vikings at -17.

49ers at Chiefs -6.5, 55.5

We opened this at -6 and got one-way KC action, but the straight bets have been even since going to -6.5," said Andrews. "I think this will be a good game and I believe the wise guys will take +7 if it gets there. This is our second largest parlay game of the week with risk mounting on the Chiefs." William Hill's books have seen 88 percent of its tickets written on the Chiefs as well as 87 percent of the cash taken in. This is a pivotal early game for the books that will have a say in how the books fare Sunday. It's a root game that will represent huge carryover risk into the afternoon games on Sunday.

Chargers at Rams -7, 48

"We went quick off -6.5 without even a full wager. It just feels like -7 it the right number," said Andrews. "This is our biggest parlay game of the week with heavy one-sided play on the Rams. If the Chiefs and Rams both cover, it's going to be the most popular two-teamer of the day and that risk will carry over into the night game." Boyd Gaming saw enough Rams money at -7 and moved to -7 -120 as a measure to slow the public wave.

Bears -5, 38.5 at Cardinals

"The wise-guys are all over the Cardinals this week," said Andrews. "They took +6.5, +6, and +5.5. " However, he says public hates the Cardinals and they're betting the Bears in parlays.

Cowboys at Seahawks -1, 41.5

"We've got a little play on the Seahawks, nothing big, mostly public play," said Andrews who opened the desperate Seahawks -2.5 before their Monday night loss at Chicago. It's been -1 ever since.

Patriots -7, 54 at Lions

"This is our third biggest parlay game and our biggest teaser game," said Andrews who moved from -6.5 up to -7 on Thursday morning. "This game could be on its way to -9 now."

How about that popular public parlay with the Rams, Chiefs and Patriots paying out at 6/1 odds? That's going to be a whopper for every sports book to swallow if it cashes. And then there will be heavy lingering risk heading into the Monday night game where the Buccaneers (+1) are already popular plays at home against the Steelers.

Have a great football weekend and here's to hoping all your tickets cash.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 3
September 21, 2018
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Panthers are 10-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 at home coming off a road game where they allowed at least 100 yards rushing.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Bills are 0-10-1 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since Dec 22, 2002 as a road dog coming off a home game where they did not force a turnover.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Dolphins are 7-0 OU (13.7 ppg) since Dec 21, 2014 at home after Ryan Tannehill completed at least 60% of his passes on the road last game.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Redskins are 12-0-1 OU (8.4 ppg) since Nov 22, 2015 as a dog coming off a game where they threw for at least 250 yards.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-11 OU (-12.0 ppg) since Oct 02, 2005 as a home favorite of more than three points coming off a game where they allowed at least seven points more than expected.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Titans are 0-11 ATS (-9.36 ppg) as a dog vs a divisional opponent when they are off a game as a dog.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 3
September 22, 2018
By Chris David

Week 2 Recap

Total bettors saw a stalemate (8-8) in the second week of the season and most of the results were never in doubt. You could argue that the Vikings-Packers ‘over’ (45) only cashed due to the late surge but the pair did have 24 points posted at halftime. Bettors chasing the high side in the second-half again cashed tickets with a 9-7 mark.

2018 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 2 8-8 8-8 9-7

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 17-15 15-17 19-13

The two non-conference games in Week 2 went ‘under’ and the early divisional trend leaning to the ‘over’ came back to life with a 5-3 lean to the low side.

2018 RESULTS - OTHER

O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast

Week 2 0-2 3-5 1-1 1-0

O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast

Year-to-Date 2-4 7-5 4-2 1-1

Keep an Eye On

-- Nine teams have watched the ‘over’ cash in each of their first two games while seven teams have watched the ‘under’ go 2-0.

-- It was noted in our Hot & Not Report that the four teams in the NFC East are 7-1 to the ‘under’ and it did double-count the Giants-Cowboys result from Week 2.

-- Fireworks are expected for a quarter of the games in Week 3 with four games having totals listed in the fifties. Week 2 had two games close in the 50s and the ‘over/under’ went 1-1. No games in Week 1 were in this range but a pair closed at 49 ½ and the same total result (1-1) occurred.

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 3 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

Green Bay at Washington: 47 ½ to 45
Chicago at Arizona: 40 to 38 ½
New England at Detroit: 50 to 54
Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay: 50 to 54

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 3 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Cincinnati at Carolina: 92% Over
New England at Detroit: 92% Over
N.Y. Giants at Houston: 85% Over
Oakland at Miami: 83% Over
Denver at Baltimore: 78% Over

Divisional Action

Tennessee at Jacksonville: The ‘over’ is on a 4-1 run in this series and last year’s ‘under’ result could be tossed out with the Jaguars resting players in Week 17. The Titans won that game 15-10. Tennessee has scored 20 in each of its first two games but injury concerns at quarterback could keep that production in the same neighborhood. The Jaguars have allowed just 12.7 points per game in their last seven games at home.

New Orleans at Atlanta: Nine of the last 10 encounters between the pair have seen totals in the fifties and this week’s number (53 ½) is in that range. The ‘over’ has gone 6-3-1 during this span and based on what we’ve seen from the Saints defense (33 PPG), it’s hard to imagine Atlanta not getting at least four scores at home. First road game for New Orleans and it averaged 25.7 PPG away from home last season. This Falcons defense was great last season and it showed in Week 1 at Philadelphia but the unit has been affected by two huge injuries (Deion Jones, Keanu Neal) and it showed last week by allowing 439 yards to Carolina.

NFC vs. AFC

Half of the 16 matchups in Week 3 are non-conference tilts. Looking above, you can see the ‘under’ has gone 4-2 in these games so far this season.

Indianapolis at Philadelphia: This is a tough game to handicap for a couple reasons. For starters, you have QB Carson Wentz returning for the Eagles on Sunday since injuring his knee last December and rust could certainly be a factor. Second, former Philadelphia offensive coordinator Frank Reich is the head coach for the Colts. Will his knowledge be able to temper the Birds? The Philadelphia defense was great at home last season (12.4 PPG) and it held Atlanta to 12 points in the opener. While QB Andrew Luck has made a few mistakes (3 INTs) for the Colts, he’s almost back to his form and the Colts offense is ranked first in third down conversions (61%). Going back to the 2016 season, Indy has averaged 25.8 PPG in their last nine road games with Luck under center.

Cincinnati at Carolina: The Bengals have been a surprise so far at 2-0 and while the defense (23 PPG, 402.5 YPG) looks suspect, they’ve forced five turnovers through two games. The Cincy offense takes a hit with the loss of running back Joe Mixon but QB Andy Dalton appears confident for now. Including one win this season, the Panthers have captured six straight at home and the offense has averaged 27.5 PPG in those victories.

N.Y. Giants at Houston: The New York offense (14 PPG, 289.5 YPG) continues to be a mess and Houston’s hyped-up attack (18.5 PPG) under Deshawun Watson hasn’t been much better. Both clubs enter this game with 2-0 ‘under’ records and the Giants have seen the ‘under’ go 8-1 in their last nine regular season games.

Buffalo at Minnesota: Based on the odds for this matchup, the books are expecting Minnesota to win this game 28-12 over Buffalo. The Vikings have watched the ‘under’ go 6-2 in their last eight regular season games at home and no opponent has scored over 16 points during this span.

San Francisco at Kansas City: Andy Reid and the Chiefs have become the most popular team to back and it’s easy to see why. They lead the league in scoring (40 PPG) and they have to because their defense (32.5 PPG, 508 YPG) is one of the worst units in the league. While this total (55) is high, the ‘over’ is certainly doable based on the tendencies for Kansas City. The Chiefs have averaged 29 PPG in their last five home games versus NFC foes.

L.A. Chargers at L.A. Rams: The Bolts averaged 27.5 PPG in two road games versus NFC teams last season and more points expected here in this local rivalry. This is a big step up in class for the Chargers, who just faced two of the weakest defensive teams. The Rams defensive unit (6.5 PPG, 266 YPG) has been lights out albeit versus the Raiders and Cardinals. In two games versus AFC teams at home last season, the Rams only allowed a combined 16 points.

New England at Detroit: (See Below)

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay: (See Below)

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ went 2-1 in primetime games last week and through eight games, the low side owns a 5-3 mark on the season which includes Thursday’s outcome between the Browns and Jets. Home teams have won six of those contests and a visitor hasn’t won since the road teams (Jets, Rams) swept the double-header on Monday Night Football in Week 1.

SNF – New England at Detroit: A Patriots-Over combination on SNF would be a disaster for the house and the books are hoping former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia can rally his new club to an upset. You might be surprised to know that Patricia and the Lions (347.5 YPG) have the better defense than the Patriots (402.5 YPG). New England was diced up by the Jaguars (480 yards) on the road last week and they made Blake Bortles (376 yards, 4 TDs) look like Tom Brady. Detroit is on an 8-2 ‘over’ run its last 10 games at Ford Field, which was helped by Lions attack (25.7 PPG). Make a note that the Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 in their last six games against NFC opponents and they’ve scored 30-plus in four of those games, which includes their last two Super Bowl results.

MNF – Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay: The opening number (50) was quickly pushed up and it appears that bettors are certainly overreacting to what we’ve seen in the first two weeks. Tampa Bay has turned some heads but they’ve done it with big plays and you wonder what happens when the Buccaneers are forced to move the sticks. The Steelers were lit up at home last week to the Chiefs, who hold a slight lead over Tampa Bay (10-9) with big passing plays (25-plus yards) this season. As bad as both defensive units have looked, you would have to think that Tampa Bay (30.5 PPG) or Pittsburgh (31.5 PPG) will improve as the season progresses. Make a note that including the tie at Cleveland in Week 1, the Steelers have gone 7-1-1 in their last 9 road games and the defense (15.7 PPG) has been very solid during this span. And as great as Tampa Bay QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has played through two games, he’s 0-5 in five career starts against Pittsburgh and his teams only averaged 14.4 PPG.

Fearless Predictions

A couple clear-cut winners were upended by the Jets-Dolphins ‘over’ and turnovers clearly doomed that outcome. The teaser was shot at halftime of the Chiefs-Steelers game and that loser cost us juice ($10) on the weekend. Bankroll (+185) still positive and plenty of weeks left. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Cincinnati-Carolina 44
Best Under: Oakland-Miami 44 ½
Best Team Total: Over 17 ½ N.Y. Giants

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Under 52 ½ Green Bay-Washington
Under 46 Chicago-Arizona
Over 46 ½ New England-Detroit

[StarDust Bum]

Week 3 - Sunday Blitz
September 22, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Colts at Eagles (-6 ½, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Philadelphia’s title defense started with an ugly home victory over Atlanta in a playoff rematch in Week 1. However, the Eagles were torched by a pair of 75-yard touchdowns in a 27-21 defeat to Tampa Bay last week in the final game played without Carson Wentz at quarterback. Super Bowl MVP and backup Nick Foles threw for 334 yards and a touchdown against the Buccaneers, but Wentz will be back in the fold on Sunday for the first time in a regular season game since tearing his ACL in a Week 14 victory over the Rams last season.

The Eagles welcome in old friend and former offensive coordinator Frank Reich and the Colts, who face an NFC East opponent for the second straight week. Indianapolis rebounded from an opening week setback to Cincinnati as the Colts cruised past the Redskins last Sunday in D.C. as six-point underdogs, 21-9. The Colts held Washington to three field goals, while quarterback Andrew Luck tossed two touchdown passes for his first win since 2016.

Philadelphia is riding a 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS run in the last 13 games at Lincoln Financial Field since Week 16 of 2016, while winning five consecutive matchups with AFC opponents dating back to 2015. Indianapolis last won consecutive games in 2016, while posting a 1-2 ATS record off a victory last season with the lone cover coming as a 10 ½-point underdog against Pittsburgh. The Eagles and Colts last hooked up in Week 2 of the 2014 season in Indianapolis as Philadelphia pulled out a 30-27 road ‘dog victory.

Best Bet: Eagles 20, Colts 17

Saints at Falcons (-3, 53 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

New Orleans has gone from a 10-point favorite in consecutive home games to a short underdog in its first road contest of the season on Sunday. The Saints couldn’t stop the Buccaneers in a 48-40 opening week defeat, while coming a kick away from losing to the Browns last week. New Orleans staved off Cleveland, 21-18 by scoring 18 fourth quarter points, highlighted by a pair of Drew Brees touchdown tosses to Michael Thomas. The Saints dropped to 2-7 ATS in their last nine regular season contests, which includes a 2-4 ATS mark at the Mercedes Benz Superdome.

The Falcons rebounded from an opening week loss to the Eagles by winning their home opener over the Panthers last Sunday, 31-24. Atlanta cashed as 5 ½-point favorites thanks to a pair of touchdown passes by Matt Ryan, while the Falcons’ quarterback also rushed for two scores. The Falcons improved to 6-0 in its past six home games against division opponents, while Atlanta has won three of the previous four home matchups with New Orleans since 2014.

These two NFC South rivals each won at home last season in a pair of December matchups. The Falcons rallied from a 17-10 fourth quarter deficit by scoring the final 10 points of a 20-17 win as 2 ½-point favorites, in spite of Ryan getting intercepted three times. The Saints slumped to a 1-3 ATS mark as a road underdog in the 2017 regular season, one year after putting together a 6-1 ATS record in the same role.

Best Bet: Saints 31, Falcons 24

Chargers at Rams (-7, 48) – 4:05 PM EST

The battle of Los Angeles is the key game to watch among the three late kickoffs on Sunday. One season removed from winning the NFC West title, the Rams haven’t missed a beat in two blowout victories over the Raiders and Cardinals. L.A. has outscored its opponents, 67-13, while easily covering each time. Running back Todd Gurley rushed for only 42 yards, but found the end zone three times, while quarterback Jared Goff threw for 354 yards in last week’s 34-0 pounding of the Cardinals.

The other L.A. squad broke through the win column for the first time last week with a rout of its own by drilling the Bills, 31-20. Buffalo scored a touchdown in the final minute to make the score look closer, as the Chargers jumped out to a commanding 28-3 lead as Philip Rivers tossed three touchdown passes. The Lightning Bolts rank third in the NFL in yards per game at 445, while Rivers is averaging 329 yards per game, which also ranks third in the league.

The Chargers closed out last season as a tremendous UNDER team by cashing in 10 of its final 11 games. However, the Bolts have hit the OVER in their first two contests of 2018, while the Rams have gone the opposite way with a pair of UNDERS. The Rams captured all four wins over AFC opponents last season, but did lose three times as a home favorite against the Redskins, Seahawks, and Eagles, all off a win the prior week.

Best Bet: Chargers 28, Rams 23

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (2-3 last week, 3-6-1 on season)
Indianapolis +6 ½
Carolina -3
Oakland +3
N.Y. Giants +6 ½
Seattle -2

Chris David (2-3 last week, 6-4 on season)
Washington +2 ½
N.Y. Giants +6 ½
Arizona +6
Dallas +2
New England -7

SURVIVOR PICKS

Kevin Rogers (New Orleans last week – 2-0)
Minnesota over Buffalo

Chris David (L.A. Rams last week – 2-0)
Minnesota over Buffalo

BEST TOTAL PLAY (0-1 last week, 1-1 this season)

UNDER 44 ½ - Broncos at Ravens

After an easy win in Week 1 between the Redskins and Cardinals, it was a blowout loss for the UNDER in Week 2 as the Chiefs outlasted the Steelers, 42-37. The Broncos have depended on the ground game through two weeks, while trying to keep the ball out of quarterback Case Keenum’s hands. Baltimore fell behind Cincinnati 28-7 last week before losing, 34-23 as the defense couldn’t stop A.J. Green, who scored three touchdowns. Last season, Denver lost seven of eight road games, while scoring 16 points or less in five of those defeats.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

Is it crazy to think the Cardinals can pull off the upset of the Bears at home? It doesn’t seem like much of an upset as the Bears are coming off their first win last week, but Arizona’s offense has totaled six points in two losses to Washington and Los Angeles. In the last two seasons, the Cardinals are a perfect 5-0 when coming off back-to-back losses, while the Bears are 2-14 in this same span away from Soldier Field.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Texans are one of two 0-2 teams listed as a favorite this week (Seattle the other). The Giants travel to the Lone Star State for the second straight week after falling to 0-2 following a 20-13 loss at Dallas. The Texans opened up as 3 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, but the line has spiked up to six at many books and even 6 ½ at several outfits. In 2014, 2015, and 2017, the Giants also started 0-2. In each of those seasons, New York covered the spread in the third game, including last season in a three-point setback at Philadelphia.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

As a follow-up to the Texans (along with the Seahawks and Chiefs), teams playing their first home game of the season following back-to-back road games are not squads to support. Since 2008, home clubs are 8-20 ATS in this situation, including a horrific 4-19 ATS record in the role of a favorite. Houston, Seattle, and Kansas City are all listed as favorites, but the Seahawks have never started 0-3 under Pete Carroll as they host the Cowboys.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 3
September 22, 2018
By VI News

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,123 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2

Week 3

1) New Orleans +3 (823)
2) Seattle -2 (806)
3) Baltimore -5.5 (756)
4) San Francisco +6.5 (707)
5) New England -7 (678)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 3 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
N.Y. Jets (+3) 124 Cleveland (-3) 316
Indianapolis (+6.5) 576 Philadelphia (-6.5) 488
Cincinnati (+3) 580 Carolina (-3) 484
Tennessee (+9.5) 272 Jacksonville (-9.5) 317
New Orleans (+3) 823 Atlanta (-3) 346
Denver (+5.5) 373 Baltimore (-5.5) 756
N.Y. Giants (+6.5) 345 Houston (-6.5) 319
Oakland (+3) 420 Miami (-3) 665
Green Bay (-2.5) 594 Washington (+2.5) 627
Buffalo (+16.5) 176 Minnesota (-16.5) 352
San Francisco (+6.5) 707 Kansas City (-6.5) 668
L.A. Chargers (+7) 618 L.A. Rams (-7) 484
Chicago (-6) 471 Arizona (+6) 514
Dallas (+2) 280 Seattle (-2) 806
New England (-7) 678 Detroit (+7) 335
Pittsburgh (-1) 582 Tampa Bay (+1) 489


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 4-1 4-1 80%
2 0-5 4-6 40%
3 - - -
4 - - -
5 - - -
6 - - -
7 - - -
8 - - -
9 - - -
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

[StarDust Bum]

Essentials - Week 3
September 23, 2018
By Tony Mejia

Sunday

Indianapolis at Philadelphia (-7/46), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: : Carson Wentz is back. The 2017 Fed Ex Air Player of the Year didn’t get to finish what he started but had his team at 11-2 when he was injured, helping rack up 390.5 yards per game of total offense and a scoring average of 31.1. We should see an increase in Zach Ertz production since he’s Wentz’s preferred security blanket and there aren’t a lot of options to throw to. Outside of Nelson Agholor, a collection of guys who haven’t really been playing out there will be counted on to support Wentz injuries to Alshon Jeffery and Mike Wallace. Second-year WR Shelton Gibson is making his season debut and has two career catches, former Eagle Jordan Matthews was just signed a few days ago and Kamar Aiken has been around all camp but was originally released at the beginning of the month before being brought back. Running back is also potentially a problem spot if Corey Clement isn’t ready to play the bulk of the snaps. He’s been nursing a quad injury, as has LT Jason Peters, but both are expected to go. Regulars Jay Ajayi (back) and Darren Sproles (hamstring) won’t participate, so Wendell Smallwood should see more touches behind Clement.

New Colts head coach Frank Reich won’t get a warm reception in Philly since that’s not how the NFL works and not really how the City of Brotherly Love gets down, but last year’s offensive coordinator played a large role in Wentz’s development, Foles’ adjustment and the eventual Super Bowl run. He comes off his first win in Indy thanks to a 21-9 road win over Washington but will also be operating short-handed. Left tackle Anthony Castonzo, TE Jack Doyle, RB Marlon Mack, DT/DE Denico Autry and safety Clayton Geathers, all starters, have been ruled out. Top WR T.Y. Hilton will gut it out through a quad injury that kept him out of practice this week, while rookie RB Jordan Wilkins and TE Eric Ebron, a new addition, will be asked to step up for Andrew Luck, who has looked rather rusty. The Colts have dropped eight straight games after a win. Rainy conditions are a possibility.

Cincinnati at Carolina (-3/44), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: A.J. Green went quiet after his three first-quarter touchdowns against Baltimore, drawing attention that allowed Tyler Boyd to have a breakout game. The Bengals are looking for an unlikely 3-0 start given the early suspension top LB Vontaze Burfict and the fact new coordinator Teryl Austin is still feeling things out. Cincinnati will be the more rested team since they opened Week 2 with a Thursday night win, but that hasn’t meant it is immune from the injury bug. RB Joe Mixon revealed he had a slight ligament tear in his knee that will cost him a few weeks and thrusts Giovani Bernard back into the limelight. Center Billy Price has been dealing with a foot injury and has been ruled out. Linebackers Preston Brown and Michael Johnson are considered questionable and would be huge losses against a Panthers offense that likes to attack the middle of the field.

Carolina must get creative in order to overcome all their attrition up front. Guard Trae Turner is out with a concussion so we’ll see Cam Newton give different looks and likely be more decisive since there’s fewer bodies he trusts offering protection. Norv Turner should put together a run-heavy attack to play to the strengths of Newton running the read option and Christian McCaffrey being joined by C.J. Anderson. Safety Da’Norris Searcy is dealing with a concussion and will miss this contest, so Andy Dalton could take advantage of fresh meant back there as he attempts to snap the Panthers’ six-game home winning streak.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (-9.5/40), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Blaine Gabbert found a way to get the Titans past the Texans last week and should get a crack at his former team here. Although Marcus Mariota’s nerve problem affecting his elbow is considered a week-to-week issue, he hasn’t made enough progress to start and likely won't play unless it's absolutely necessary. Tennessee will aim to hang around behind a defense that has given up a few big plays but has largely been solid. Gabbert has a better chance of staying up right than he did last week since top tackle Taylor Lewan has cleared concussion protocol and will take part, but the defense will again be missing safety Kendrick Lewis and will be without LB Kamalei Correa, who has been a major asset thus far due to his motor and the constant pressure he’s created.

It’s going to be difficult to dent Blake Bortles’ confidence coming off a tremendous day in the red zone against the Patriots last week, cashing in with some great throws to help produce a statement win. Leonard Fournette’s availability has yet to be determined but T.J. Yeldon is again ready to go if he can’t swing it. Corner Jalen Ramsey is a go after dealing with an ankle issues all week, so he’ll be available to make Gabbert’s return to Jacksonville even more difficult. Tennessee has won three of four in this series.

New Orleans at Atlanta (-2/54) 1 p.m. ET, FOX: One of the league’s most entertaining divisional rivalries over the past decade will put the loser in a hole with a losing record through three games, potentially landing them sole possession of the NFC North cellar. The divisional tie-in, to me, gives it the edge on Dallas/Seattle as the most important game of Week 3 since neither team here wants to fall behind. The Falcons are banged up, having lost superb LB Deion Jones and talented safety Keanu Neal for the season already. This week, DEs Takkarist McKinley and Derrick Shelby won’t play, so it remains to be seen if this unit can hang with the talented, versatile Saints while shorthanded. Offensively, Atlanta will use Tevin Coleman as its feature back in place of the injured Devonta Freeman. It lost key guard Andy Levitre in the first half last week but saw Wes Schweitzer step into help the offense rack up 170 rushing yards in Carolina while not allowing a sack.

New Orleans WR Michael Thomas leads the NFL with 28 receptions on just 30 targets through two weeks and Alvin Kamara may indeed be the league’s most dangerous, versatile back, so it’s a little scary that the results haven’t been there. After losing to Tampa Bay, the Saints barely hung on to drop Cleveland, so it’s time for the light bulb to turn on for this group. RB Mark Ingram will miss one more game due to suspension and will provide another weapon once he returns, but there’s more than enough to win a second straight game against Carolina. The Falcons won 11 of 13 in this series from 2006-12 but have most recently dropped three of four.

Denver at Baltimore (-6/46), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Broncos rallied in the fourth against the Raiders to improve to 2-0, dropping old rivals Seattle and Oakland on last field goals. It hasn’t looked very pretty, but Vance Joseph has nevertheless gotten results that he looked incapable of achieving from the head seat last season. They’ll look to remain perfect by going on the road for the first time in Baltimore. Case Keenum has to solve his turnover issues but is by far the team’s best option at quarterback, averaging 275.5 yards passing through the first two games. He’ll play despite missing practice with knee soreness earlier in the week, which bodes well for all the young talent on the roster that is set to take the field for their first road game. Philip Lindsay, the hero in last week’s comeback, Week 1 starter Royce Freeman and WRs Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton will all be counted on to produce against a veteran Ravens defense. Denver has won and covered only one of its last 10 road games, so maybe the kids will have a positive influence.

Baltimore hopes to see CJ Mosley make it though pre-game warmups after leaving the field with a knee injury early in the Thursday night loss. He’s got a bone bruise in his knee. Although there are some other backups unlikely to suit up, offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley will play and DT Michael Pierce has a chance to, so John Harbaugh’s team has an opportunity to rebound quickly as they continue enjoying a rare run of prosperity health-wise. The Ravens have lost three of their last four meetings against the Broncos, giving up an average of 35 points per game. Rain is in the forecast and should present issues for both teams throughout the day..

N.Y. Giants at Houston (-6/44) 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The threat of thunderstorms could impact this key contest between teams coming off bitterly disappointing losses. The loser slips to 0-3, stomping out the high hopes they came into the season with. Texans QB Deshaun Watson is healthy but hasn’t look like himself yet, while Giants rookie RB Saquon Barkley has put together a few highlights already but fits right in with his new teammates in being sabotaged by one of the league’s worst offensive lines. Center Jon Halapaio broke his ankle on Sunday night while Ereck Flowers has been a turnstile up at right tackle and will be benched today, replaced by Chad Wheeler. Odell Beckham Jr. comes off a rough Sunday night against Dallas, which held him in check in part because Eli Manning didn’t have much time to let plays develop downfield. New York’s defense has held its own in losses to the Jags and Cowboys but will again be without top DE Olivier Vernon and CB Eli Apple, who looked much improved in the season opener.

The Texans managed to lose to a Gabbert-led team by falling in an immediate 14-0 hole in the first quarter. Tennessee proved willing to pull out all the stops by having safety Kevin Byard throw for a score on a fake and held up defensively because Watson still hasn’t found a groove. Dealing with Beckham could be a chore since corners Kevin Johnson (concussion) and Kayvon Webster (achilles), remain out. It will help that Jadeveon Clowney’s back has healed up enough to play since the defense will need him to get some heat on Manning to provide some relief for the secondary.

Buffalo at Minnesota (-16.5/41), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: This is the largest spread of the young season but will probably hold up as the biggest number for at least another month, probably two. The Bills visit Green Bay next week but shouldn't be getting 17 no matter how ugly this game winds up being. The possibility that this goes horribly exists since LeSean McCoy is now not expected to play after suffering injured ribs. At this point, with Josh Allen learning on the job and one of the league's fiercest defenses lining up against them, there's no point in exposing Shady to further injury.

The Vikings are exercising caution themselves, sitting DE Everson Griffen (knee), RB Dalvin Cook (knee) and backup corner Marcus Sherels (chest). Latavius Murray should get the bulk of the carries with Cook out, while Kirk Cousins can continue building chemistry with his receiving corps with little pressure on him. Minnesota has covered 18 of its last 25 games as a favorite, though it didn't cover its largest number last season, beating Chicago 23-10 after closing s a 13.5-point favorite last New Year's Eve.

San Francisco at Kansas City (-6.5/55), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Patrick Mahomes hopes to build on his touchdown pass collection, currently at 10 on the season after a blistering start that has answered all questions as to why Andy Reid and the Chiefs were ready to move from Alex Smith. He’s punishing teams with simple reads thanks to a strong accurate arm that’s allowing the advantages that athletic marvels Tyreke Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce help create regularly. The return of LB Reuben Foster from suspension gives the 49ers a boost, especially with LB Malcolm Smith and CB Richard Sherman also upgraded to “probable.” Kansas City remains without veteran safety Eric Berry, who is starting to turn the corner as he looks to work his way back from a heel injury. The Chiefs are averaging 40 points per game and finally get to see Mahomes start a regular-season game at Arrowhead for the first time.

San Francisco’s Matt Breida leads the NFL in rushing yards (184) and yards per rush (8.36), so the expectation is that he’ll get plenty of carries to try and keep Kansas City’s offense off the field as much as possible. He only got 11 carries last week and still ended up with 138 yards, so we’ll see how he responds to more work as he gets back on the road behind a new-look offensive line. Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers barely held on against Detroit but he didn’t have the most impressive outing, holding the ball too long. Still, following a three-interception game that contributed to the loss in Minnesota with a pick-free day was progress, even though he got bailed out of an enormous late turnover thanks to a Lions penalty. Attempting to keep pace with Mahomes should be a great test for his maturity. San Francisco has only one road conquest against teams with winning records over its last 10 tries.

Chicago (-6/38.5) at Arizona, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: The Bears are one masterful and improbable Aaron Rodgers-led comeback from a 2-0 record and people are tripping over themselves to crown Khalil Mack as the early MVP. He’s certainly been disruptive and has participated more than most anticipated he would upon being moved from Oakland to Chicago just before the season started, but getting his conditioning up and feeling more comfortable with the Bears’ schemes will likely yield even more impressive play than we’ve seen to date. Backup defensive backs Marcus Cooper (hamstring) and DeAndre Houston-Carson (forearm) won’t play, so secondary depth will be thin. The Bears should be able to pressure Arizona up front and will run into the starting QB with the lowest rating through two games, veteran Sam Bradford.

Arizona has been dreadful so far with Sam Bradford owning the league's worst QB rating among those who have started two games and the offensive line depleted by injury. It hasn't helped that Larry Fitzgerald has been hobbled by a hamstring issue that has kept him from helping Bradford find a rhythm, but time is running out for the veteran to make a dent and keep first-round pick Josh Rosen from seeing the field. Despite Chicago being 2-15 in its last 17 road games, oddsmakers have made the team the second-largest road favorite behind only New England, who is visiting Detroit. Arizona has scored an NFL-low six points.

[StarDust Bum]

Big bettor, sharps all over Saints' odds in NFL Week 3 clash against Falcons
Patrick Everson

The Saints hope to have a reason to strike a more celebratory pose Sunday, after a lackluster first two games. Bettors certainly think New Orleans will come around on the road against Atlanta.

The NFL Week 3 Sunday slate has no shortage of games drawing bettors’ interest, including an NFC South clash in which cash is piling up on one side. We check in on the action and odds movement for a handful of matchups, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip, and John Murray, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -1.5

Atlanta mustered just a dozen points in a Week 1 loss at Philadelphia, but the normally potent offense got back on track in Week 2. The Falcons (1-1 SU and ATS) beat Carolina 31-24 as a 5.5-point home favorite.

New Orleans hasn’t looked good in either of its two games, losing outright to Tampa Bay and nearly losing to Cleveland in Week 2, with both contests at home. The Saints (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) needed a last-minute field goal to beat the Browns 21-18 as a 10-point chalk last week.

But some bettors in Vegas are certainly sold on the Saints.

“One guy has been betting six figures multiple times on the Saints pointspread and moneyline,” Shelton said of activity at The Mirage and other MGM Resorts books. “It’s brewing to be a massive decision. We went down to 2.5 on Friday, then 1.5 on Saturday, and we took the moneyline off the board. It’s gonna be a seven-figure game for us.

“This is the curb-stomp game. He’s trying to win the keys to the front door!”

The Superbook also opened Atlanta -3 and was down to -2.

“A lot of sharp money on the Saints has pushed this number down,” Murray said. “The Saints were the most popular pick in the SuperContest and the SuperContest Gold, because we used 3 for the contest number. That number is long gone on the board, but the money is still coming in on the Saints, despite their showing in the first two weeks."

New York Giants at Houston Texans – Open: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -6

Two teams desperate for their first victory of the season collide in this nonconference contest. New York has generated just 28 points through its first two games, losing and failing to cash as an underdog in both. In Week 2, the Giants fell to Dallas 20-13 as a 3-point road underdog.

Houston has Deshaun Watson back from a knee injury, but that hasn’t helped get the team back in the win column. The Texans, also 0-2 SU and ATS, dropped a pair of one-score games, including last week’s 20-17 setback at Tennessee laying 3.5 points.

Though the line move has been significant, it’s not due to an overflow of cash on the home side. Rather, before the Giants’ Sunday night game at Dallas, the Superbook took the line down per standard protocol; and New York looked so bad that when Murray and Co. re-hung the line, it was quite different.

“There’s not a lot to report in this game. The money has been pretty split,” Murray said. “The Giants are 0-2 and looked awful last Sunday night in Dallas, but this is really more of a must-win spot for the Texans and coach Bill O’Brien. This is Houston’s home opener, and I think O’Brien doesn’t last another week if they lose in this spot.”


Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins – Open: -3; Move: None

Miami is out of the gate with two wins and two cashes, both in the role of modest underdog. The Dolphins topped the New York Jets 20-12 as a 3-point road pup in Week 2.

Conversely, the second Jon Gruden Era in Oakland has seen two losses and a split of the cash in those outings. Last week, the Raiders twice led by a dozen and didn’t trail until a Denver field goal with just 10 seconds left, as they lost 20-19 getting 5.5 points on the road.

While the line hasn’t moved at MGM books, Shelton noted the price has, with Miami starting at -3 (-120) and now at -3 (even), thanks to a bettor who’s becoming quite familiar.

“We do not need the Raiders,” Shelton said after Oakland moved from +3 (even) to +3 (-120). “That’s a big decision. The same guy who’s on the Saints is betting Oakland, moneyline and pointspread.”


Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: -9.5; Move: None

Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota (elbow) sat out last week and is still questionable for this 1 p.m. ET start. In his absence, Blaine Gabbert and the Titans (1-1 SU and ATS) notched a 20-17 victory over Houston as a 3.5-point home ‘dog.

Jacksonville is off to a 2-0 SU and ATS start, including a strong revenge win over New England last week. The Jaguars rolled to a 31-20 victory catching 2 points at home, in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game.

“This game was off the board most of the week due to the Mariota injury, so there isn’t much to report on in terms of handle,” Murray said. “We didn’t open until Friday, when we put up Jaguars -9.5, as we don’t expect Mariota to play and we do expect Gabbert to get another start. The Titans had a good win last week over the Texans, but I think their luck runs out this week. It’s too much to ask of Gabbert, playing with a banged-up offensive line, to go on the road against the Jaguars’ defense.”


Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -16.5; Move: -17; Move: -16.5

Buffalo could be looking at a long season, after a pair of games that didn’t inspire much confidence. The Bills (0-2 SU and ATS) got blasted at Baltimore 47-3 as a 7.5-point Week 1 ‘dog, then trailed the Los Angeles Chargers 28-3 at home in Week 2 en route to a 31-20 loss, again getting 7.5 points.

Meanwhile, Minnesota escaped with a sister-kisser in Week 2. The Vikings (1-0-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) trailed most of the way at Green Bay, but got a late touchdown and 2-point conversion to force overtime. Neither team scored in the extra session of a 29-29 tie, with Minnesota laying 2 points.

This game presents the issue of another big player riding hard on one side. The so-called Duffel Bag Bettor hit MGM books Friday night with three parlays – a two-teamer and a three-teamer for $50,000 apiece, and a four-teamer for $20,000 – that all included the Vikings -16.5.

“If we get the Bills, it’s all over. If he gets the Vikings in the early kickoffs, it’s on to the Bears in the afternoon kickoffs,” Shelton said. “If he goes undefeated, his four-teamer carries over to Tampa Bay on Monday.”