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**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2018, 09:49 PM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Over/under totals on number of TD passes thrown this season:

33.5— Aaron Rodgers

32.5— Tom Brady

28— Ben Roethlisberger

27— Jared Goff

26.5— Brees, Rivers, Stafford, Watson

25.5— Cousins, Prescott, Wilson

**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Things I learned while watching way too much TV

13) Texas Tech’s marching band was the first marching band to to travel to its school’s road football games, way back in 1925.

12) Actor Dennis Quaid is left-handed; he was a quarterback in Any Given Sunday, a relief pitcher in The Rookie.

11) Since he became the starter ten years ago, Green Bay is 94-48 when Aaron Rodgers starts for them; they’re 6-11-1 in games he’s missed.

10) Pittsburgh’s Joe Musgrove began Thursday’s game with 21 consecutive strikes, the most by any starting pitcher to begin a game since pitches were first tracked in 1988.

9) There are 48 college football games this season where the visiting team is getting a guarantee of at least $1M. At the highest level, college sports is very big business.

8) There is a movie called Owning Mahowny that is about a bank manager with:
(a) a gambling problem and
(b) access to a multimillion dollar bank account;

The movie is based on the true story of the largest one-man bank fraud in Canadian history. It stars Philip Seymour Hoffman and Minnie Driver.

7) Milwaukee’s Christian Yelich is the first player with a cycle, a 5th hit and an outfield assist all in the same game since Andre Dawson on April 29, 1987. Yelich had his big night Wednesday in Cincinnati.

6) Baltimore Ravens have won their last 14 preseason games; they’re also 21-27 in the regular season the last three years, haven’t made the playoffs since 2014.

5) Now I feel old: Trent Green’s son is the backup QB at Northwestern.

4) Something is amiss with the Red Sox’ front office; David Howard, who has been Boston’s minor league field coordinator for nine years, has been fired- no word on why. Odd timing.

3) The other night in Fenway Park, Red Sox scored 11 runs in an inning; Andrew Benitendi made the first out of the inning with a sacrifice bunt, then ended the inning by grounding into a double play. Research Doug Kern looked this up, and says that has never happened before in the big leagues.

2) Friday night’s Detroit-New York baseball game was first one this year where both managers were ejected. Ejections have to be way down since instant replay became a thing.

1) There are 24 grad transfer QB’s in college football this season, which means a kid got his degree at one school, wasn’t happy with his playing situation and went elsewhere to finish his college career.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2018, 09:51 PM

Questions abound for the 2018 NFL season
September 3, 2018

NEW YORK (AP) Rules changes and national anthem demonstrations seem to have folks inside and outside the NFL obsessed as the opening kickoff of the season approaches.

Yes, the Super Bowl champion Eagles and Atlanta Falcons will open things on Thursday night in Philadelphia. What many folks wonder: Will there be any social injustice protests during ''The Star-Spangled Banner?'' And if players, coaches and officials will have a handle on the adjustment to use of the helmet in making a hit.

Not to mention the new kickoff rules and, at last, a catch rule that seems to make sense.

Those are enough issues to grab attention away from Philly's quarterback situation, as well as the progress of the five first-round QB draft choices expected to make their debuts sooner or later.

Or from the return from injuries of Aaron Rodgers, J.J. Watt, Richard Sherman, Deshaun Watson, David Johnson and Odell Beckham Jr., to name a few.

Or Jon Gruden's return to an NFL sideline in Oakland.

Plus, Adam Vinatieri's pursuit of the career points and field goals marks.

What's ahead through the penultimate day of the 2018 calendar?

RULE CHANGES

The preseason has been dominated, even overridden, by discussion of and doubts about the ''helmet rule.'' Basically, any player on offense or defense lowering his head and making contact with any part of the helmet is subject to a 15-yard penalty, a fine, and even an ejection. It's a player safety adjustment for which ''the goal long term is to make the game safer and take out some of these hits that should not be part of the game,'' says Giants owner John Mara, a member of the competition committee that recommends rules changes to the owners.

The concerns on many levels focus on players adjusting to the tackling requirements and officials mastering such calls at full speed.

Gene Steratore, who recently retired as an NFL (and college basketball) referee, expects the critical tempest to die down quickly.

''Players will adjust because they are that good,'' says Steratore, now an analyst for CBS after 15 seasons in the league. ''Officials will, too, because they are that good. There will be a learning curve for all of them, but I think in a fast period of time, a trigger moment will come that will show right before that contact if it is worthy of a flag.''

The fix to the phrasing of the catch rule should eliminate the kind of calls - on Jesse James, Dez Bryant et al - many found bogus.

''Control. If it looks like a catch and smells like a catch, it's a catch,'' says Troy Vincent, the NFL's chief of football operations. ''(The rule) had become convoluted: what you should do, what you shouldn't do. It should be clear as day. So our job was to simplify and we put it in practical terms.''

The other major rule alteration is on kickoffs, where coverage team players no longer can take a running start, and there are regulations on where kick team players can be overall and how they can block.

''This is certainly a way of trying to keep the kickoff in the game and attempting to cut down on high-speed collisions,'' Mara says. ''There are a lot of us who don't want to take the kickoff out unless we can't find ways to make it safer. It is our most dangerous play.''

NATIONAL ANTHEM

Anticipation of whether players will demonstrate during the national anthem again this year is high, fueled in part by reactions from President Trump. Players argue that their message about the need for change in communities nationwide has been misconstrued by the president and his followers, including many team owners.

With the unilateral policy banning players from any on-field protests during the anthem on hold as owners and players discuss the issue, no one can be sure what's ahead.

Everyone can be sure the topic won't disappear.

''I think part of the problem is that when you continue the rhetoric that this is controversial or this is somehow a negative thing, people treat it as such,'' Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins says. ''But we've seen in other leagues when they've decided to amplify the voices of their players to also emphasize the importance of the issues that we're raising, and change the narrative away from the anthem, that not only is it more acceptable, the fan base gets educated on what we're talking about, and we can actually make some movement.''

ROOKIE QBS

Before we reach 2019, it's a near-certainty that Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson will get onto the field. Some likely will be starters, maybe even stamp themselves as stars.

Only in Baltimore, where Joe Flacco is the incumbent, is the rookie (Jackson) a long shot to become the No. 1 quarterback this season. The others - Cleveland's Mayfield, Buffalo's Allen, the Jets' Darnold and Arizona's Rosen - are with teams considered outsiders in the playoff chase and it makes sense as early as prudent to see if they are the franchise QBs they were drafted to be.

COACHES

New coaches in charge of the Cardinals, Titans, Lions, Giants, Bears and Raiders include four newbies to being in charge: Detroit's Matt Patricia, Chicago's Matt Nagy, Tennessee's Mike Vrabel and Arizona's Steve Wilks. All of them made their marks as proficient coordinators and bring freshness and toughness to their franchises.

Vrabel, of course, has three Super Bowl rings as a player with New England, which surely earns him some respect in the locker room. If he's considered a product of the Belichick coaching tree, though, Vrabel could struggle; few of the Patriots coach's proteges have had much success as a head man in the NFL.

So the same goes for Patricia, although he has far more experience in coaching.

New York's Pat Shurmur had a short stint in charge in Cleveland and probably didn't get a fair shake. The Giants desperately needed a culture change after the 2017 debacle.

''I have seen just about all I could see from the top of the mountain to having the second pick in the draft,'' Mara says. ''Last year still is somewhat of a shock to me, going from a preseason Super Bowl contender to being the second-worst team in the league. It was a perfect storm, just an avalanche of injuries, locker room issues, a relatively inexperienced head coach (Ben McAdoo) who hadn't had to deal with any of that in the past, and some draft classes not all that productive. And it adds up to a bad season.''

Oakland also comes off a bad season following a playoff appearance, and the Raiders made the biggest splash by bringing back (and out of the broadcast booth) Jon Gruden. There's lots of excitement in the Black Hole and throughout the Bay Area about Gruden, who clearly has stamped his personality on the roster by trading his best player, holdout pass rusher Khalil Mack.

''I love the Raider fans, I love Oakland, and that's the primary reason why I'm standing here,'' he says.

PURSUING HISTORY

Vinatieri is a marvel. The NFL's oldest player at 45, he begins his 23rd pro season in range to pass Hall of Famer Morten Andersen as the leading scorer. He was dependable for a decade in New England and then a dozen years in Indianapolis.

He needs seven field goals to pass Andersen (565) for the most field goals. Andersen scored 2,544 points in a league-record 382 games and Vinatieri needs 58 points to break the record.

''It's one of those things that I haven't really though too much about it,'' he says. ''I'm still just trying to help my team win games and keep on putting chapters in this book, and if that happens, fantastic.''

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2018, 09:57 PM

Tech Trends - Week 1
September 3, 2018
By Bruce Marshall

THURSDAY, SEP. 6

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Falcs only 2-6 vs. line away in reg season LY (1-1 in playoffs, L at Philly in Div Round), after 7-1 vs. spread away in 2016 reg season. Atl also “over” 21-11 past two reg seasons. Pederson 13-4-1 vs. line at Linc since taking over Birds in 2016.
Tech Edge: Eagles, based on team trends.
SUNDAY, SEP. 9

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Interestingly, Brownies have covered last 3 meetings, though they’ve lost last 6 SU in series. Hue Jackson just 4-12 vs. line each of past two seasons. Steel “under” 8-0-1 last nine as reg season visitor.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on Steelers “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Niners were 5-0 SU and vs. spread in Garoppolo starts last season, which makes Garoppolo 7-0 SU and vs. line in his starts since 2016 (Pats & 49ers). SF also “under” 6-2 away LY. Vikes, however, 8-1 vs. line last 9 reg season at home. Minny also 2-5-1 “under” in reg season at US Bank Stadium LY.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “”totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Colts “under’ 15-8 last 23 back to mid 2016, but have lost and failed to cover last three openers (with Pagano). Save 2016, Marvin Lewis usually good as a dog (5-3-1 LY; 11-3-1 203-15, though 1-5 in role in 2016). Reich Indy debut.
Tech Edge: Bengals and “under,” based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BUFFALO at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Harbaugh 7-3 SU and vs. line in openers with Ravens. Harbaugh also “under” last four openers. Bills only 4-5 as reg season dog LY.
Tech Edge: Ravens and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
JACKSONVILLE at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Shurmur G-Men debut! Eli 7-4 as home dog since 2015, and “under” 17-7 since mid 2016.
Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends..

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Home team has won and covered all four meetings past two seasons. Saints have covered last five as host in NFC South games. Brees also “over” 21-11 last four years as reg season host. Koetter 14-8-1 as dog past two seasons.
Tech Edge: Saints and slight to “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Note Texans were 5-1 vs. line LY in games started by Deshaun Watson, including cover and near miss of upset SU win at Foxborough. Houston 2-8 vs. spread LY in games Watson didn’t start. Texans also “over” 5-0 in Watson’s last five starts in 2018.
Tech Edge: Texans and “over,” based on Watson trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSEE at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Vrabel Titans debut! Tenn only 2-5-1 as road chalk since 2015. Dolphins closed slow LY with 2-7-1 spread mark last ten, though Gase is 5-2-1 as home dog past two seasons.
Tech Edge: Slight to Dolphins, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Andy Reid has owned this series lately, 8-0 SU and 6-2 vs. line since 2014 vs. Bolts. Chiefs 15-6 vs. spread last 21 reg seas away from Arrowhead 5. Bolts “under” 12-4 LY (including both vs. KC).
Tech Edge: Chiefs and slight to “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at DENVER (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Vance Joseph closed 2017 on 2-10 spread skid,and Broncos 5-14-1 vs. number since late in 2016. Denver has, however, won last 6 SU in openers. Pete Carroll 21-10-4 as dog since 2011.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at CAROLINA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cam 3-1 SU and vs. line last four openers, and Pan-thas did cover 6 of last 9 reg seas LY. Dak only 1-3 as dog LY though Cowboys were 5-1-1 vs. spread last seven away in 2017. Dallas “under” 14-7 last 21 reg seas since late 2016.
Tech Edge: Slight to Panthers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Wilks Az debut! Big Red is 29-11-1 SU at Glendale since 2014. Also “under” 13-5-1 last 19 at UOP Stadium. Jay Gruden flattening out a bit lately vs. line but it “over” 17-7 away since 2015.
Tech Edge: Slight to Cards, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at GREEN BAY (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Nagy Bears debut! Pack is 7-3-1 as Lambeau chalk past two seasons. Bears only 5-11 vs. line away past two seasons and were also “under” 11-5 LY for.
Tech Edge: Pack and slight to "under," based on Lambeau trends.

MONDAY, SEP. 10

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. JETS at DETROIT (ESPN, 7:10 p.m. ET)
Patricia debut for Lions! Caldwellwas 14-5-1 as Ford Field chalk the past four seasons. Though Lions enter 2018 only 4-6 vs. spread last ten as host. Bowles just 3-7-1 as road dog past two seasons but “under” 10-5 last 15 away.
Tech Edge: Lions and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. RAMS at OAKLAND (ESPN, 10:20 p.m. ET)
Gruden Raiders re-debut! Rams were 6-3 vs. line away LY for McVay. Oakland “under” 11-5 last season including last seven. Raid-uhs also just 4-11-3 last 18 on board since late 2016.
Tech Edge: Rams and “under."

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2018, 10:06 PM

Games to Watch - Week 1
September 4, 2018
By YouWager.eu

NFL Games to Watch - Week 1

Week 1 of the 2018 college football season is now officially in the books and we are now just a matter of days away from the opening game in the new NFL season. That means we have a busy weekend coming up for football bettors, so we are going to try and make things easier by breaking down the NFL Week 1 schedule to pick out a few games that we think you should be paying attention to this weekend.

We have 3 games in total to look at, where we will look at the current odds, take a peek at which way the public is leaning, and perhaps make a prediction or two.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (Thursday, NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The season opener takes place on Thursday night and it has all the makings of a beauty, with the defending Super Bowl champions opening at home against the Atlanta Falcons. The Eagles are in as a 2 ½ point favorite for this one, with the point total set at 45. The first thing that we need to consider here is that QB Carson Wentz is not yet ready to start.

Nick Foles proved to be more a more than adequate back-up last season, leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl, but he has been less than stellar in regular season play. The public consensus right now is split down the middle in both the spread and the point total, which is no real surprise given how good these two teams are. What I see here is that only 3 of the last 10 meetings between these two have gone over, which is the play I would be looking at.

Predicted Score: Philadelphia Eagles 21 Atlanta Falcons 20

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (Sunday, CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

You look at the 4-12 record of the Texans last season and automatically see them as a serious underdog against the team that has dominated the league for years. There is more to this story than meets the eye, though, as this Texans team looks like a real dark horse to me this year, assuming they can stay healthy, particularly at the QB position.

The Patriots are a 6 ½ point home favorite for this one, with the point total set at 51. The public consensus right now is mildly in favor of the Texans ATS and very much in favor of the OVER, with 68% leaning that way. The OVER has hit in 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two, so perhaps not that surprising. I am with the betting public on this one.

Predicted Score: New England Patriots 30 Houston Texans 27

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Bears just made one of the biggest moves of the offseason in landing the services of Khalil Mack from the Oakland Raiders. He could very well make an immediate impact, but will that be enough against a Green Bay Packers team that is one of the favorites to win it all this season. The Packers are in as a 7 ½ point home favorite, with the point total set at 47 ½.

The Packers have dominated their recent meetings with the Bears, going 8-2 SU and covering in 7 of those meetings. Despite the lopsided nature of those games, the betting public appears to still be somewhat on the fence. I am on the Packers to win and cover and I also like the OVER.

Predicted Score: Green Bay Packers 42 Chicago Bears 17

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2018, 10:09 PM

Thursday's Best Bet
September 4, 2018
By BetOnline.ag

NFL Week 1 TNF Betting Preview

Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles

After months of breaking down schedules, rosters, and of course the odds, Week 1 of the NFL season is just hours away. As is customary now, the defending champs get to open up a new campaign at home, and for the Philadelphia Eagles it will be a return match from the first step of their championship journey; a home game with Atlanta.

Obviously, the Eagles would like to duplicate the result, but Atlanta won't be happy knowing that this was the same team that ended the Falcons 2017 season, and now its the Falcons who've got to sit through all the video montages and remembrances of what a great season it was in Philly prior to this game. That's not the best scenario to put the defending champs in but will they slip up like New England did 12 months ago in the same spot?

BetOnline.ag Odds: Philadelphia (-2.5); Total set at 45

Getting the last two Super Bowl combatants from the NFC for a season opener should be good, as even the backup QB who won the Eagles the Super Bowl is back in a starting role thanks to injury. Philly is going with QB Nick Foles under center for this game as QB Carson Wentz still nurses some nagging injuries, and you've really got to feel for Foles.

Foles is a guy that got next to nothing in terms of respect from the betting markets and fans when he came into replace Wentz last year, got hot at exactly the right time, parlayed that into a Super Bowl MVP and victory, and then is forced back into the shadows as a backup before another injury thrusts him into the limelight. Foles as got to understand that Wentz is Philly's guy going forward, but it still can't feel great being jerked around and expected to perform at the snap of a finger like he is.

And now, expectations for Foles are through the roof given the run he went on last year and it's going to be nearly impossible for him to live up to those expectations in Game 1. Oddly enough though, with Foles getting the nod for this season opener, he does share a similar situation to a QB who came out and surprised many in last year's season opener.

Last year's season opening game saw Kansas City in New England to take on the Patriots and all the talk then was about how QB Alex Smith was a lame duck QB, nothing more than a dink-and-dunk game manager that the Chiefs were all ready to move on from. Little was expected from Smith against the defending champs and he came out there and turned into Joe Montana for three hours.

Smith was taking deep shots whenever he felt he could, airing things out and taking chances to prove to everyone he deserved to still be a starter in this league. If the Chiefs were already replacing Smith on the depth chart in their minds, he made sure he'd go and get paid in free agency this year (he did) and keep the transition to Mahomes on the sidelines for at least another year.

Now, Foles isn't going to be supplanting the move to Wentz at QB for Philadelphia, but it's not like he's potentially playing for a starting position somewhere else in a season like Smith was a year ago. Foles has a few more things on the resume too after last year's playoff run, and I would not be surprised to see him go back to that ultra-aggressive decision maker that led the Eagles to the championship. Atlanta has shown in the past that their secondary can be had, so don't think Foles will be ready to fade away from the spotlight just yet.

Which means the total is actually the better play on this game in my eyes, although their has been movement on both the side and total. Regarding the side, Atlanta has been bet down to below +3 after it was announced that Foles would get the nod. Atlanta showed next to nothing in the preseason, but they've got an opportunity to be an all-time great offense this year if things fall in place. I'd still like to see more from their defense though before I really begin to trust them and it's why I'm staying away from the side.

The total has dropped as well after opening at 46.5 and it's a move I see based on some stale thinking. Part of it is Foles is starting for the Eagles again (their backup), part of it is all the injuries Philly's been resting all month and not really knowing what to expect there, and part of it is the abysmal point production numbers Atlanta put up in the preseason.

The Falcons only scored a grand total of 27 points in their four preseason games and three of the four were held to a TD or less. That's why the 'under' has gotten the majority of the support so far, but I'll gladly take the value on this number now and go the other way.

For one, I already expect the Eagles attack to be fairly aggressive with Foles back under center, as thsi team played it's best down the stretch a year ago when the games were higher scoring. Philly's defense still leaves a lot to be desired and it's not like the Falcons don't have a shortage of offensive weapons to use at their disposal. It may not have worked out for Matt Ryan and company in the playoff game, but the 15-10 final score from that contest could end up being similar to the score after the 1st quarter here.

So while many look back at that 15-10 game from the playoffs, combine it with Atlanta's brutal preseason and Philadelphia's numerous injuries to arrive at the conclusion that this game will be another defensive slugfest, I believe going against the grain here and taking the high side of this number is the better way to go.

Atlanta's had six months to lament what didn't work against this defense in that playoff game, got healthier and more explosive, and will be out to make a statement of their own being just one year removed from nearly hoisting the Lombardi Trophy as well.

Nick Foles and Philly aren't ready for their spotlight to dim yet as they've already stated in the media how they feel like they still get disrespected in the media/by prognosticators even after winning it all, so they won't hold back on the aggressiveness either.

And whether or not we see the defending champs lose the season opener like we saw with the Patriots a year ago I don't know, but we should see one thing the same: a high-scoring contest.

Best Bet: Over 45

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2018, 10:18 PM

SB Trend favor Eagles in Week 1
September 3, 2018
By VI News

The 2018 NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday Sept. 6 when Philadelphia hosts Atlanta at Lincoln Financial Field from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

The two teams met in the 2017 Divisional Playoffs and Philadelphia captured a 15-10 win over Atlanta as a 2 ½-point home underdog.

For the Week 1 rematch, the Eagles opened as four-point home favorites but that number has moved in Atlanta's direction and the line is listed as low as Philadelphia -1 ½ at a few betting outfits.

On Monday, Eagles coach Doug Pederson says quarterback Nick Foles will start for the team in the opener and Carson Wentz still hasn't been medically cleared for contact.

Foles was the starter in last year's postseason matchup against Atlanta and was 23-of-30 for 246 yards but the veteran who won last year's Super Bowl for the Eagles hasn't looked sharp in the preseason.

Whether or its Foles or Wentz under center for the Eagles, backing the defending Super Bowl champions in their Week 1 opener the following season is a well-known angle and the public has banked on it.

The trend didn't connect last year as Kansas City stunned New England 42-27 at Foxboro. However, bettors should note that we've only seen Super Bowl winners drop back-to-back openers twice since 2000.

Those consecutive setbacks occured in the 2012 and 2013 seasons when the Giants and Ravens lost to the Cowboys and Broncos respectively.

SUPER BOWL WINNER - WEEK 1 HISTORY (2000-2017)

Year SB Winner Opponent Score (SU-ATS-O/U Result)

2017 New England (-8) vs. Kansas City 42-27 (Loss-Loss-Over)

2016 Denver (+3) vs. Carolina 21-20 (Win-Win-Over)

2015 New England (-7) vs. Pittsburgh 28-21 (Win-Push-Under)

2014 Seattle (-4.5) vs. Green Bay 36-16 (Win-Win-Over)

2013 Baltimore (+7.5) at Denver 27-49 (Loss-Loss-Over)

2012 N.Y. Giants (-3.5) vs. Dallas 17-24 (Loss-Loss-Under)

2011 Green Bay (-4.5) vs. New Orleans 42-34 (Win-Win-Over)

2010 New Orleans (-4.5) vs. Minnesota 14-9 (Win-Win-Under)

2009 Pittsburgh (-5) vs. Tennessee 13-10 (Win-Loss-Under)

2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) vs. Washington 16-7 (Win-Win-Under)

2007 Indianapolis (-5) vs. New Orleans 41-10 (Win-Win-Under)

2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. Miami 28-17 (Win-Win-Over)

2005 New England (-7.5) vs. Oakland 30-20 (Win-Win-Over)

2004 New England (-3) vs. Indianapolis 27-24 (Win-Push-Over)

2003 Tampa Bay (+3) vs. Philadelphia 17-0 (Win-Win-Under)

2002 New England (PK) vs. Pittsburgh 30-14 (Win-Win-Over)

2001 Baltimore (-10) vs. Chicago 17-6 (Win-Win-Under)

2000 St. Louis (-7) vs. Denver 41-36 (Win-Loss-Over)

Including New England's defeat to Kansas City last season, the defending champions are now 15-3 straight up and 11-5-2 against the spread in Week 1 openers since 2000.

There is another popular Super Bowl betting angle that calls for fading last year's runner-up in Week 1.

In case you forgot, the Eagles defeated the New England Patriots and they're listed as six-point home favorites over the Houston Texans in Week 1.

SUPER BOWL LOSER - WEEK 1 HISTORY (1999-2017)

Year SB Loser Opponent Score (SU-ATS-O/U Result)

2017 Atlanta (-7) at Chicago 23-17 (Win-Loss-Under)

2016 Carolina (-3) at Denver 20-21 (Loss-Loss-Over)

2015 Seattle (-3.5) at St. Louis 31-34 - OT (Loss-Loss-Over)

2014 Denver (-8) vs. Indianapolis 31-24 (Win-Loss-Over)

2013 San Francisco (-5.5) vs. Green Bay 34-28 (Win-Win-Over)

2012 New England (-5) at Tennessee 34-13 (Win-Win-Under)

2011 Pittsburgh (+1) at Baltimore 7-35 (Loss-Loss-Over)

2010 Indianapolis (-2.5) at Houston 24-34 (Loss-Loss-Over)

2009 Arizona (-6.5) vs. San Francisco 6-20 (Loss-Loss-Under)

2008 New England (-16) vs. Kansas City 17-10 (Win-Loss-Under)

2007 Chicago (+6) at San Diego 3-14 (Loss-Loss-Under)

2006 Seattle (-6) at Detroit 9-6 (Win-Loss-Under)

2005 Philadelphia (-1) at Atlanta 10-14 (Loss-Loss-Under)

2004 Carolina (-3) vs. Green Bay 14-24 (Loss-Loss-Under)

2003 Oakland (+3) at Tennessee 20-25 (Loss-Loss-Under)

2002 St. Louis (-3) at Denver 16-23 (Loss-Loss-Under)

2001 N.Y. Giants (+3) vs. San Francisco 13-16 (Loss-Loss-Under)

2000 Tennessee (PK) at Buffalo 13-16 (Loss-Loss-Under)

1999 Atlanta (+4) at Minnesota 14-17 (Loss-Win-Under)

In the 2017 regular season, the Falcons did win their Week 1 opener at Chicago but they failed to cover the spread as road favorites.

Including that result, the Super Bowl runner-up from the previous season has gone 6-13 SU and 4-15 ATS since 1999.

Despite the poor overall numbers (21%) versus the number during this span, the Super Bowl ‘losers’ have won four of the last six seasons and they were expected to do so as favorites.

We also highlighted in the above table that the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight Week 1 openers for the Super Bowl loser and the total for the Patriots-Texans matchup is currently the only ‘over/under’ listed in the fifties for the opening weekend.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2018, 10:20 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

Thursday, September 6

Atlanta @ Philadelphia

Game 451-452
September 6, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
143.294
Philadelphia
139.361
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 4
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+3); Under

Sunday, September 9

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

Game 453-454
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
129.902
Cleveland
127.832
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+6); Under

San Francisco @ Minnesota

Game 455-456
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
137.687
Minnesota
136.748
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 6
46
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+6); Over

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis

Game 457-458
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
129.229
Indianapolis
122.790
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 6 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3
47
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+3); Over

Buffalo @ Baltimore

Game 459-460
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
122.985
Baltimore
137.492
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 14 1/2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 7
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-7); Under

Jacksonville @ NY Giants

Game 461-462
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
136.232
NY Giants
124.735
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 11 1/2
31
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-3); Under

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Game 463-464
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
127.806
New Orleans
142.219
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 14 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 9 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-9 1/2); Over

Houston @ New England

Game 465-466
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
117.759
New England
141.487
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 23 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 6 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-6 1/2); Over

Tennessee @ Miami

Game 467-468
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
125.925
Miami
129.438
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 3 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 1 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+1 1/2); Under

Kansas City @ San Diego

Game 469-470
September 9, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
133.795
San Diego
134.631
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 3 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+3 1/2); Under

Seattle @ Denver

Game 471-472
September 9, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
132.927
Denver
125.244
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 7 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3
42
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+3); Over

Dallas @ Carolina

Game 473-474
September 9, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
134.042
Carolina
133.257
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+3); Over

Washington @ Arizona

Game 475-476
September 9, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
127.693
Arizona
132.198
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 4 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
Pick
44
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
Under

Chicago @ Green Bay

Game 477-478
September 9, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
123.166
Green Bay
133.561
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 10 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 8
48
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-8); Under

Monday, September 10

NY Jets @ Detroit

Game 479-480
September 10, 2018 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
123.494
Detroit
133.680
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 10
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 6 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-6 1/2); Over

LA Rams @ Oakland

Game 481-482
September 10, 2018 @ 10:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
134.776
Oakland
124.398
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 10 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 3
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-3); Over

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2018, 10:21 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (11 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (16 - 3) - 9/6/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, September 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (13 - 4) at CLEVELAND (0 - 16) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 105-77 ATS (+20.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 10) at MINNESOTA (14 - 4) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (7 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 12) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (9 - 8) at BALTIMORE (9 - 7) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (12 - 7) at NY GIANTS (3 - 13) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (5 - 11) at NEW ORLEANS (12 - 6) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (4 - 12) at NEW ENGLAND (15 - 4) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (10 - 8) at MIAMI (6 - 10) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 112-146 ATS (-48.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (10 - 7) at LA CHARGERS (9 - 7) - 9/9/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (9 - 7) at DENVER (5 - 11) - 9/9/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (9 - 7) at CAROLINA (11 - 6) - 9/9/2018, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (7 - 9) at ARIZONA (8 - 8) - 9/9/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 63-88 ATS (-33.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (5 - 11) at GREEN BAY (7 - 9) - 9/9/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 108-78 ATS (+22.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 187-133 ATS (+40.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (5 - 11) at DETROIT (9 - 7) - 9/10/2018, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (11 - 6) at OAKLAND (6 - 10) - 9/10/2018, 10:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 184-232 ATS (-71.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 184-232 ATS (-71.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 62-97 ATS (-44.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) in September games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 50-81 ATS (-39.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2018, 10:22 PM

NFL

Week 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 6

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Atlanta is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Philadelphia
Atlanta is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Atlanta's last 13 games when playing Philadelphia
Atlanta is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Atlanta is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games
Philadelphia is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 13 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Philadelphia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Sunday, September 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 19 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of New Orleans's last 19 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
San Francisco is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
San Francisco is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Minnesota is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games at home
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Minnesota is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing at home against San Francisco

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Buffalo is 7-11-3 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
Buffalo is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Baltimore's last 12 games
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Jacksonville is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 7 games
NY Giants is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants's last 12 games at home
NY Giants is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville

Houston Texans
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 10 games when playing New England
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
New England is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New England's last 15 games
New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of New England's last 13 games at home
New England is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Houston
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 10 games when playing Houston
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Tennessee is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Tennessee's last 18 games when playing Miami
Tennessee is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tennessee's last 13 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami Dolphins
Miami is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Miami is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 11 games
Miami is 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games at home
Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Miami is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Miami's last 18 games when playing Tennessee
Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Miami's last 13 games when playing at home against Tennessee

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Cincinnati is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Indianapolis is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Cincinnati
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 11 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 13 games at home
Cleveland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 11 games on the road
Kansas City is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Chargers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City

Washington Redskins
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Washington's last 20 games on the road
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Washington is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Arizona
Washington is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Arizona's last 15 games
Arizona is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Arizona is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games at home
Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Arizona's last 20 games at home
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Arizona is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Washington
Arizona is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 10 games when playing Denver
Seattle is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games
Denver is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games at home
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 10 games when playing Seattle
Denver is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Seattle
Denver is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games when playing at home against Seattle

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 9 games
Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Carolina is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games at home
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Green Bay
Chicago is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing Green Bay
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Chicago is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Chicago
Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing Chicago
Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago
Green Bay is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 10 games when playing at home against Chicago

Monday, September 10

New York Jets
NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
NY Jets is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Jets's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games
Detroit is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Rams is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games
LA Rams is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Rams is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 8 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing Oakland
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Oakland is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
Oakland is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2018, 10:24 PM

Trends to Watch - September
Marc Lawrence

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Off another sensational NFL Preseason Baltimore is an excellent home team this month at 30-17 ATS and have Buffalo (9/9) and Denver two weeks in the land of crab cakes.

You might think Buffalo's best home month is December, but it's not. They are strong in September at 34-22 ATS but only have one homer, against the L.A. Chargers on Sept. 16th.

Detroit is a solid 30-19 ATS in the Motor City and has the Jets on the first Monday Night game of the season and Dallas on the third Sunday of the month (9/23). San Francisco is thought to be revitalized this season and is 28-17 ATS this month in their building, but they have a nasty opening slate and just the Lions (9/16) at home early.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona has three games in Glendale to start the season with the Redskins (9/9), Bears (9/23) and Seahawks (9/30) and we will find out right away if the oddsmaker 5.5 win total is correct.

Carolina will be tested right off the bat with it's poor 16-24 home spread record, with Dallas there on Week 1 and Cincinnati in Week 3. Speaking of the Bengals, the days of "The Jungle" are long gone with a 17-29 ATS record. And it might not improve with Baltimore in Cincy for the second Thursday night affair.

After playing in Arizona in their season lid-lifter, Washington hosts Indianapolis and Green Bay the next weeks trying to better 18-31 ATS home mark.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): For the first three months of the season, Dallas is an exceptional away club and that starts with a 33-18 ATS mark in September. Given their past, going to Carolina (9/9) or Seattle two weeks later would not imposing for the Cowboys.

Denver is none too shabby either at 28-18 ATS and they get tested only once, at Baltimore on the 23rd. Fellow AFC West partner Kansas City also fits this quality profile at 34-19 ATS. One concern for the Chiefs starting the season is at the Chargers and at the Steelers for first-time starter Patrick Mahomes.

Bad: It's been a while since the Rams were this good after last season. They are a horrific 16-32 ATS in the road whites and they play the late game in Oakland on MNF, before a three-game homestand.

Keep an eye on (Bad): New coach, new system, but same old results for Chicago away from the Windy City? The Bears are 19-29 ATS on the road and go to the not so frozen tundra at Lambeau Field on the 9th and to the red-hot Arizona desert on the 23rd.

As good as Detroit is at home, that's basically home bad they are on the road at 19-31 ATS. At San Fran on a short week in Week 2 won't be easy and likely or will a trip to Big D on the 30th.

Most years, Pittsburgh labors early and is an unsightly 17-31 ATS on the road. They are often not covering as away favorites and let's see how they do in that role at Cleveland in Week 1 and on the third week of MNF at Tampa Bay.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): Seattle is 31-20 ATS, but they are in transition. There is a chance they might not be a favorite all month, but chances are they will be at least once against @Chicago (9/17), Dallas (9/23) and @Arizona (9/30).

Bad: For years, the Rams, no matter where they were from, they were a brutal favorite. Their record of 12-30 ATS record explains that, but things could be changing. This L.A. bunch has the young loaded roster and is expected to be favored in all four of their games this month. Nonetheless, paying attention to history still matters.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Sportsbooks are calling for Arizona to be last in their division, but because of three home games this month, they will be favored at least twice. That might not be good since the Cardinals are only 11-20 ATS, facing Washington (9/9) and Chicago (9/23)

At 12-23 ATS when handing out points, Carolina is not a pretty play. The Panthers will give points to Dallas in Week 1 and Cincinnati in Week 3, both at home.

Chicago has a similar record to Carolina at 14-23 ATS and will catch Tampa Bay in Week 4 as a fave. Da Bears might be a very small favorite in Week 2 in the Windy City against Seattle, but the prior week's results will determine that.

UNDERDOGS

Good: Dallas has been a sharp 27-11 ATS in this role they will be around a three-point pooch at Carolina to start the season. The early line had the Cowboys catching points in Seattle (9/23) but that could change.

Keep an eye on (Good): Kansas City is a nice 29-18 ATS as a September dog and as we start the month, they are receiving digits in two away games at the Chargers (9/9), and Pittsburgh (9/16).

The Vikings ship also travels well as underdogs at 27-18 ATS and they will be in Green Bay (9/16) and at the Rams on the last Thursday of the month.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): The Chiefs have been well prepared for AFC West action to begin the season with a 24-13 ATS mark. Good chance to improve in Game 1 against the Bolts in L.A.

Bad: It's Gruden 2.0 in Oakland and at 11-22 ATS versus division competitors, Week 2 at Denver might not be good.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Chicago is 18-27 ATS this month in the NFC North and it could get worse with a trip to Green Bay on Sunday Night football.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-05-2018, 01:13 PM

Top Teams to Watch
September 5, 2018
By YouWager.eu

NFL - Predictions, top picks, teams to avoid

We are on the brink of the new NFL season, which means that it’s time to take a serious look at the current odds for the 2019 Super Bowl. Specifically, we are going to take a look at the favorites, while also picking a few teams that are among the top picks, but who may actually prove to be a bad pick. Most of us are already aware of the teams that are probably going to be very poor this year, so we won’t be spending any time on the bottom feeders.

Let’s get right to it, looking at the top teams with a prediction whether to play or avoid. Remember, all betting odds, props and futures are available at YouWager.eu.

Early Favorites for the 2019 Super Bowl

New England Patriots +650
There is a definite sense that the Patriots dynasty is on its last legs, but this team has made a habit of confounding the critics and winning against the odds. The big concern here is that there is finally some dissension in the ranks. You also have a QB, arguably the GOAT, who is now 41, who will be throwing to a group of receivers that appears to have changed from week to week during the preseason. They may yet surprise us, but I would avoid playing the Patriots to win it all.

Pittsburgh Steelers +1000
There are some questions surrounding this team, most notably with the status of Leveon Bell, who has yet to sign his franchise tag agreement for this season. He will eventually do so, and the Steelers will be just fine. If the Patriots do take a step back this season, it will most likely be the Pittsburgh that reaps the benefits, which makes me think that they are a team that you should play!

Philadelphia Eagles +900
The defending Super Bowl Champions have made some changes that may have made them better than they were last season, but there are still some serious questions about the health of Carson Wentz, who we already know will miss the opening game of the year. Nick Foles was great last season, but can he sustain that level of play if he is asked to take the reins for longer than a couple of weeks? The QB status makes me nervous, making the Eagles one to avoid!

Green Bay Packers +1400
Aaron Rodgers got the fat new contract that he wanted, which means he will be looking to come out and prove that he deserves all that green. The Packers look to be loaded, but the big question is whether they can stay healthy. Their last two seasons have been totally derailed because of injuries, and while a third straight season of that seems unlikely, they still make me nervous, hence the avoid status.

Los Angeles Rams +1000
This team has spent a lot of money and appears to be all in on making a Super Bowl run. They are certainly loaded, but their one and done in the playoffs last season is something to be concerned about. I do see them making a deep run, but falling short at the Conference Final, which means an avoid pick.

Minnesota Vikings +1000
The NFC is absolutely loaded this year and getting out is going to be tough. If any team has what it takes to run that gauntlet, I believe it is the Minnesota Vikings. They have what is arguably the best defense in the league, and they now have a legitimate QB in Kirk Cousins. I like the Vikings to win it all this season, so definitely a play pick.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-05-2018, 01:16 PM

Thursday's Top Wager
September 5, 2018
By BetDSI

By Tom Wilkinson

NFL Preview – Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The 2018 regular season is finally here, as the Atlanta Falcons visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night in a game that can be seen on NBC.

The Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champs, but they will not have starting quarterback Carson Wentz for this contest, as Nick Foles will get the start.

Foles was great in last year’s playoffs and in the Super Bowl, but he wasn’t that good in the regular season and he looked awful in the preseason.

Let’s look at Thursday’s game and NFL picks.

Date and Time: Thursday, September 6, 2018, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
NFL Odds : Eagles -1.5, O/U 45
Falcons vs. Eagles TV Coverage: NBC

Bettors have been taking the Falcons almost from the word go in this game. The line opened up with the Eagles 4.5-point favorites and the number is down to 1.5. Most of that movement is due to Wentz being out, but there is also the fact that many people expect the Eagles to have a Super Bowl hangover and because Philadelphia simply didn’t look very good in the preseason.

The Eagles are also expected to be without wide receiver Alshon Jeffery in this contest. Philadelphia may have to rely on their defense to win this one.

On the other side, the Falcons are supposed to have a high-powered offense led by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones but offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian did his best to screw up the offense last year and he is still the one calling the plays.

You would think that with Ryan, Jones, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and with rookie Calvin Ridley, that the Falcons would be potent on offense this season, but it is hard to trust Atlanta as long as Sarkisian is on the sideline.

Matchup to Watch

I know that many people will focus on Foles in this one, but this game may end up being decided on the other side of the ball. The Eagles want to force the Falcons to throw the ball and that means stopping the run. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman will be going up against the Philadelphia run defense.

The Eagles had the top run defense in the NFL a season ago, giving up just 79.2 rushing yards per game. That defense will face a combination of Freeman and Coleman who combined for over 2100 yards from scrimmage and 16 TDs.

If the Eagles can stop the run they will put pressure on Ryan to beat them throwing the ball and Ryan has never been great under pressure.

Key Stats

The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games. The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1. The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.

Looking at the total, the Under is 7-0 in the Falcons last 7 games overall. The Under is 4-0 in the Falcons last 4 road games. The Under is 4-1 in the Eagles last 5 home games. The Under is 7-3 in the Eagles last 10 games in September. The Under is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings in this series.

Falcons vs. Eagles Picks

There is no question that the public is on the Falcons in this contest and that fact alone has me considering the Eagles. I just don’t know what to expect from Foles, as he is capable of playing great, but more often than not he struggles. I think the better option is to play the total.

The Falcons are not the high-scoring offense they should be and they are going against a tough Philadelphia defense. On the other side, I can’t see the Eagles scoring a ton of points with Foles at the helm.

I will go under the total in this Thursday night contest.

Falcons vs. Eagles Pick: Under 45
Falcons vs. Eagles Score Prediction: Eagles 20, Falcons 17

**StarDust Bum** · 09-05-2018, 01:19 PM

Falcons-Eagles Capsule
September 5, 2018
By The Associated Press

ATLANTA (11-7) at PHILADELPHIA (16-3)

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

OPENING LINE - Eagles by 4 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Atlanta 8-10, Philadelphia 13-5-1

SERIES RECORD - Eagles lead 19-14-1

LAST MEETING - Eagles beat Falcons 15-10, NFC divisional playoff, Jan. 13

AP PRO32 RANKING - Falcons No. 8, Eagles No. 1

FALCONS OFFENSE - OVERALL (8), RUSH (13), PASS (8).

FALCONS DEFENSE - OVERALL (9), RUSH (9), PASS (12).

EAGLES OFFENSE - OVERALL (7), RUSH (3), PASS (13).

EAGLES DEFENSE - OVERALL (4), RUSH (1), PASS (17).

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Eagles were underdog as No. 1 seed in divisional-round win over Falcons. ... Falcons averaged 22.1 points per game and allowed 19.7 in 2017. ... Falcons averaged 364.8 yards per game and allowed 318.4 and 5.93 yards per play, second highest in franchise history. ... Falcons QB Matt Ryan completed 64.6 percent of passes for 4,095 yards, 20 TDs, 12 picks and 91.4 passer rating. ... RB Devonta Freeman had 865 yards rushing and seven TDs. ... WR Julio Jones caught 88 passes for 1,444 yards and three TDs. ... Freeman and Jones were held out of preseason games. ... RB Tevin Coleman had 927 scrimmage yards and eight TDs. ... Falcons' defense ranked in the top 10 in total yards and scoring for first time since 1998. ... LB Deion Jones had three picks. ... LB Vic Beasley Jr., had two sacks and forced fumble in last meeting. ... Keanu Neal led NFC safeties with 113 tackles. ... K Matt Bryant made 34 of 39 field goals (87.2 percent) and all 35 extra-point tries. ... Eagles coming off first Super Bowl victory in franchise history. ... Doug Pederson tries to become fourth head coach in team history to win three straight season openers. ... Eagles 15-3 at home since 2016. ... Philly finished with second-most points (463) in team history in 2017. ... Eagles tied for first in NFL in point differential (plus 162), led league in rush defense (79.2 yards per game) and ranked first in NFC in turnover differential (plus 11). ... Eagles averaged 28.6 points per game and allowed 18.4. Averaged 365.8 yards per game and allowed 306.5. ... QB Nick Foles was 5-1 filling in for Carson Wentz. Foles was Super Bowl MVP and will start Thursday with Wentz still recovering from knee injury. ... RB Jay Ajayi had 873 yards rushing and one TD combined with Dolphins and Eagles. ... TE Zach Ertz had 74 catches for 824 yards and eight TDs. ... DE Brandon Graham had 9 1/2 sacks in regular season and strip-sack to seal Super Bowl win. ... K Jake Elliott made 26 of 31 field goals (83.8 percent) and 39 of 42 extra points. ... Fantasy Tip: Jones has 500 yards receiving vs. Eagles in past four games, including nine catches for 101 yards with 16 targets in playoff game.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-06-2018, 03:01 AM

Week 1

Thursday

Falcons @ Eagles— Last 15 years, Super Bowl champs are 8-4-3 vs spread in their first game the next year; they’re 3-3 SU the last six years. Philly is 6-3 in its last nine games vs Atlanta, beating Falcons 15-10 in playoffs LY, blanking Atlanta in 2nd half. Falcons lost eight of last nine visits here, with three of those losses in playoffs. Eagles are 5-4 vs spread as home favorites under Pederson; under is 14-9 in their home games last three years. Falcons are 8-3 as road underdogs under Quinn; under is 18-12 in their road games last four years. Under is 10-3 in Falcons’ last 13 road openers. Eagles won three of last four home openers. Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home openers. Matt Ryan is from Philly, so this is a homecoming for him. Nick Foles gets start at QB for the Iggles, with Wentz still not 100% after knee surgery.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 6
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ATL at PHI 08:20 PM
PHI -1.5
U 44.5

Announcement

Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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