Cnotes 2018 College Football Thru The Bowl Games News- Trends-Stats-Best Bets !

[Udog]

Tech Trends - Week 3
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Sept. 13

BOSTON COLLEGE at WAKE FOREST...Road team has won outright last four meetings in series. Last eight "under" in series.
"Under" and BC, based on team, series, and "totals" trends.


Friday, Sept. 14

GEORGIA STATE at MEMPHIS...GSU 20-7 as road dog since 2012 (though just 1-2 since LY). Tigers just 8-10 as Liberty Bowl chalk since 2015, though have covered 6 of last 8 laying DD.
Slight to GSU, based on team trends.


Saturday, Sept. 15

UTEP at TENNESSEE...Miners now on 2-11-1 spread skid since last season. Vols, however, almost as bad since LY (2-11 vs. line). UT 0-6 vs. points last 6 hosting non-SEC BCS foes.
Slight to UTEP, based on extended UT woes.


BALL STATE at INDIANA... After 5-0 mark as road dog in 2016 debut year, Neu fell off to 1-5 in role in 2017. Though Cards have remarkably covered last 5 and 8 of last 9 visiting Big Ten foes!
Ball State, based on team trends.


TEMPLE at MARYLAND...Still no sign of Durkin, though Terps only 5-7 vs. spread at College Park since 2016. Texas win was at FedEx Field. Temple might be starting slow again for Collins as LY when dropping first four vs. line before rallying to cover 7 of last 9. Owls 11-3 vs. line last 14 away, though a good portion of that was under Matt Rhule (5-2 LY for Collins).
Slight to Temple, based on team trends.


UMASS at FIU...UMass 8-2 as road dog past two seasons before running into BC in opener. Butch 0-3 as home chalk LY.
Slight to UMass, based on team trends.


MIAMI-FLA at TOLEDO... Richt is 6-3 as visiting chalk since arriving in 2016 but Canes now on 3-8 spread downturn. Candle just 2-3 as dog with Rockets but extended Toledo dog trends are good (12-6 during Campbell years of 2012-15).
Slight to Toledo, based on team trends.


HAWAII at ARMY...New and improved Bows 3-0 SU TY. Monken only 10-13 vs. spread at Michie since arriving at West Point in 2014.
Hawaii, based on recent trends.


KENT STATE at PENN STATE...James Franklin cooling off a bit vs. line, only 3-4 last seven on board after 16-2 spread run. Only 2-4 vs. spread last six hosting non-Big Ten foes at Beaver Stadium. Golden Flashes only 7-11 as DD dog past three seasons but did cover opener at Lovie.
Slight to Penn State, based on team trends.


UCF at NORTH CAROLINA...Fedora just 1-6 vs. spread as Chapel Hill dog since 2014, UCF 5-1 as visiting chalk since 2016.
UCF, based on team trends.


OLD DOMINION at CHARLOTTE... Monarchs now on 4-11-1 spread skid and 1-5 last six as chalk after covering 8-0-1 previous nine laying points.
Slight to Charlotte, based on team trends.


FLORIDA STATE at SYRACUSE...Noles just 1-3-2 vs. spread as visitor LY. FSU 4-9-2 last 15 on board (0-2 for Taggart). Cuse however just 4-9 vs. line at Carrier Dome since Dino arrived in 2016.
Slight to Syracuse, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA at IOWA STATE...Revenge for OU after home loss to ISU last October. Road chalk also the one role that didn’t work as well for Sooners LY (1-2). Matt Campbell 11-7-1 as dog since taking over Cyclones in 2016.
Iowa State, based on team trends.


TROY at NEBRASKA...Scott Frost only 7-8-1 last 16 on board. Huskers no covers last 7 at Lincoln. Troy 8-1 as visiting dog for Neal Brown since 2015.
Troy, based on team trends.


RUTGERS at KANSAS...KU 2-6 vs. points last 8 at Lawrence, and Beaty now 13-23-1 vs. spread since taking over KU in 2015.
Rutgers, based on Kansas woes.


EAST CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH...ECU only 7-18-1 vs. line for Montgomery since 2016. Hokies destroyed Pirates LY 64-17. Fuente 7-4 as Blacksburg chalk since arriving in 2016.
Virginia Tech, based on ECU woes.


GEORGIA TECH at PITT...Paul Johnson has covered 4 of 5 vs. Pitt since Panthers joined ACC in 2013. Narduzzi 6-16 vs. spread at Heinz Field since arriving in 2015.
Georgia Tech, based on team trends.


VANDERBILT at NOTRE DAME...Derek Mason was 17-11 as dog entering last season before slipping to 2-6 in role. Dores 10-2 vs. spread last 12 in reg season vs. non-SEC BCS foes. ND 5-8 as South Bend chalk since 2015.
Vandy, based on team trends.


OHIO at VIRGINIA...Bronco Mendenhall 4-2 as chalk since LY. Solich 6-2 as visiting dog since 2015.
Ohio, based on team trends.


SMU at MICHIGAN...Tough start for Sonny Dykes at SMU, 0-3 and outscored 139-45 in process. Ponies 1-5-1 vs. spread last 7 away from Dallas. Harbaugh just 5-9 vs. spread last 13 on board.
Slight to Michigan, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at APP STATE...USM has covered 5 of its last 6 as a reg-season dog. App was only 3-9 vs. spread at Boone entering last season before covering 4 of 6 at Kidd Brewer Stadium.
Slight to Southern Miss, based on team trends.


BOISE STATE at OKLAHOMA STATE...Broncos 14-5 vs. spread as visitor since 2015, and covered all three as dog away from blue carpet LY. Gundy just 3-5-1 last 9 vs. spread at Stillwater.
Boise State, based on team trends.


BYU at WISCONSIN...Sitake now 6-1 as road dog with Cougs since taking over in 2016. Cougs have also covered 5 of last 7 since late LY. Wiscy was 10-5-1 as DD chalk past two seasons before narrow non-covers first two TY. Chryst still 21-10-1 vs. points last 32 on board.
BYU, based on recent trends.


WEST VIRGINIA at NC STATE...Pack was 2-0 as home dog LY though only 5-9 last 14 on board. Also no covers 5 of last 6 in reg season vs. non-ACC. Holgorsen now 6-3 last 9 as chalk.
Slight to West Virginia, based on team trends.


MIAMI-OHIO at MINNESOTA... Miami now on 4-10 spread slide since LY, and no covers last six non-MAC. Fleck just 6-7-1 vs. spread with Gophers but has covered 4 of 5 outside Big Ten. Fleck 2-0 SU, 1-1 vs. line vs. Chuck Martin while with WMU.
Slight to Minnesota, based on team trends.


LSU at AUBURN...Orgeron now 4-0 as dog since LY and 15-8 vs. spread since taking over LSU midway 2016. Home team has won and covered last four in this series. Malzahn just 4-11-1 as Jordan-Hare chalk since 2015.
LSU, based on team trends.


USF vs. ILLINOIS (at Soldier Field, Chicago)...Lovie now on 5-12 spread skid since late 2016. Lovie just 7-12 as dog since taking over Illini in 2016, and 2-6 last eight vs. line against non-Big Ten.
south Florida, based on Lovie woes.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Bonamego now 8-3 as visiting dog since 2015, and Chips 6-2 vs. spread last 8 as visitor. CMU has also had NIU’s number lately, winning and covering last four meetings. Huskies on 2-8-1 spread skid since early 2017.
Central Michigan, based on series and team trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at CLEMSON...Eagles just 3-5-1 as road dog since 2016. Dabo 5-3-1 as double-digit chalk LY and 6-2 last 8 vs. spread reg season vs. non-ACC.
Clemson, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO at NEW MEXICO STATE...Ags have covered last 3 and now 3-0-1 last 4 vs. line in series. Though NMSU now no covers last six in reg season play.
Slight to New Mexico, based on recent team trends.


TULANE at UAB...Willie Fritz now on 11-4 spread uptick. Blazers 5-0-1 vs. line at home LY, though have covered just 1 of last 5 on line.
Tulane, based on team trends.


DUKE at BAYLOR...Rhule 2-5 vs. line at Waco since taking over at Baylor LY. Cutcliffe 25-12-1 as chalk since 2012.
Duke, based on team trends.


COLORADO STATE at FLORIDA...Rams 1-9 vs. line last ten on board. Gators 7-5 vs. line as Swamp chalk since 2016.
Florida, based on CSU negatives.


HOUSTON at TEXAS TECH...UH just 2-9 last 11 vs. spread away from home. Tech 5-0-1 vs. line last five hosting non-Big 12.
Texas Tech, based on team trends.


UTSA at KANSAS STATE...UTSA just 1-9 vs. spread last ten on board. Bill Snyder 5-2 vs. spread last 7 vs. non-Big 12 at home.
Kansas State, based on team trends.


NORTH TEXAS at ARKANSAS...UNT 7-4 last 11 vs. line vs FBS. Hogs just 4-9-1 last 13 on board vs. BCS schools.
North Texas, based on team trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at OREGON...SJSU just 2-5 as road dog for Brennan LY and has failed to cover last five on road vs. non-MW. Ducks 5-2 vs. points since LY as Eugene chalk, 4-3-1 last eight laying DD.
Oregon, based on team trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at BUFFALO...Eagles now on 21-6-1 spread run, also 14-2 vs. spread last 15 away from Ypsilanti. Lance Liepold’s Bulls not far behind, however, now 11-2-2 last 15 on board.
Slight to EMU, based on team trends.


OREGON STATE at NEVADA... Beavs now on 1-6-1 skid as road dog, and 4-9-1 overall vs. spread since LY. OSU no covers last six as non-Pac 12 visitor. Pack on 6-3 spread uptick for Jay Norvell.
Nevada, based on team trends.


ALABAMA at OLE MISS...Saban rolled 66-3 LY, but Rebs have played Bama as tough as anyone in recent years, covering previous three and winning two of those outright. Matt Luke now on 5-1 SU and spread uptick since late LY. Saban only 1-3 as visiting chalk LY.
Ole Miss, based on team and extended series trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at TULSA...Red Wolves just 1-6 last 7 as non-Belt visitor. Tulsa just 2-5 vs. spread last seven as host.
Slight to Tulsa, based on team trends.


TEXAS STATE at SOUTH ALABAMA...Tex State now on 6-11 spread side since late 2016 Jags 3-10-1 last 14 as Mobile chalk, though that was all with Joey Jones.
Slight to South Alabama, based on team trends.


MTSU at GEORGIA...Blue Raiders just 5-9 vs. line last 14 as dog. Losing lately vs. SEC but all of that vs. Vandy (no covers last four vs. Dores). Kirby Smart is 5-2 last 7 laying DD vs. BCS foes. Dawgs on 13-5 spread run.
Georgia, based on team trends.


MARSHALL at SOUTH CAROLINA...Gamecocks 3-3 vs. line the last six years in game following Georgia. If Muschamp laying DD , however, he’s only 1-3 in that role with SC. Herd has covered last six as road dog.
Marshall, based on team trends.


MISSOURI at PURDUE...Purdue rolled 35-3 LY. But Barry Odom 4-1 vs. line as visitor LY and covered 8 of last 10 on board. Odom 2-0 as road dog LY after 0-5 in 2016. Brohm, however, covered all four vs. non-Big Ten LY.
Purdue, based on team trends.


AKRON at NORTHWESTERN...Pat Fitz on 8-2 spread surge. Bowden just 7-12 as DD dog since 2014.
Northwestern, based on team trends.


ULL at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Note that under Mullen, MSU only 3-7 as DD chalk the past two seasons (3-3 LY). But Bulldogs are 6-1 vs. spread last seven outside of SEC. ULL failed to cover all three away LY vs. non-Belt.
Miss State, based on team trends.


ULM at TEXAS A&M...ULM 4-1 vs. line as non-Belt visitor under Matt Viator. Ags were 2-8 as DD chalk in 2015-16 before recovering to 3-1 in role since LY (1-0 Jimbo).
Slight to ULM, based on team trends.


WESTERN KENTUCKY at LOUISVILLE...Petrino on 5-13 spread skid, and he’s just 8-12 as home chalk since 2014. But WKU just 2-6 vs. line away from home for Sanford since LY.
Slight to Western Kentucky, based on recent ‘Ville negatives.


USC at TEXAS...Trojans on 4-13 spread skid since late 2016, 2-7 last 9 vs. spread away from Coliseum. SC also no covers last six vs. non-Pac 12. If Tom Herman a dog note 10-1 mark in role since 2015.
Texas, based on team trends.


OHIO STATE vs. TCU (at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Tx)...Buckeyes 7-1 vs. line last 8 vs non-Big Ten away from Big Horseshoe. Patterson only 3-4 as dog since 2016 but was 7-2 getting points the previous three years.
Slight to Ohio State, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON at UTAH...Utes have covered last three years in this series. Petersen just 2-6 vs. number last eight away from Seattle. Utes 12-4 as dog for Whittingham since 2014.
Utah, based on team and series trends.


FRESNO STATE at UCLA...Tedford 6-1-2 vs. line away since LY. FSU on 13-3-2 spread run since late 2016. Bruins 0-4 as home dog since 2014, and 9-17-2 vs. line last 28 overall. Also 2-7-1 last ten vs. spread non Pac 12.
Fresno State, based on team trends.


ARIZONA STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Sun Devils only 2-6-1 vs. spread last nine vs. non-Pac 12 away from Tempe. Rocky had won 3 in a row SU vs. Pac 12 before Stanford loss.
Slight to SDSU, based on team trends.

[Udog]

Wednesday’s six-pack

Bill Belichick’s NFL coaching tree:
— Al Groh, 9-7 (one year with the Jets)
— Bill O’Brien 31-34 (Texans)
— Nick Saban 15-17 (Dolphins)
— Eric Mangini 33-47 (Jets, Browns)
— Josh McDaniels 11-17 (Broncos)
— Romeo Crennel 28-55 (Browns, Chiefs)
— Matt Patricia 0-1 (Lions)


Quote of the Day
“Rounders was what made poker seem cool to new players coming in. It gave the game a connection to Hollywood.”
Professional poker player Daniel Negreanu

Wednesday’s quiz
Who was the Phillies’ manager when they won the World Series 10 years ago?

Tuesday’s quiz
Erik Kramer was Detroit’s QB last time they won a playoff game, in 1991.

Monday’s quiz
Aaron Rodgers played his college football at California.
Posted on September 11, 2018Leave a comment on Wednesday’s 6-pack, Quote, Quiz of the Day

***********************

Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings……

13) Monday, guy at SouthPoint Casino in Las Vegas wagered $40,600 on the Lions to win on the money line against the Jets…….meaning he risked $40,600 to win $14,000. All Detroit had to do was win a game they were favored in by 6.5 points.

Oy.

12) Wonder how many Lions fans wonder why Jim Caldwell was fired? He went 36-28 in four years as the Lions’ head coach, made the playoffs twice, went 9-7 the last two years- why did they fire him??? Maybe its premature panicking, but its a valid question.

Before Monday night, last time the Jets scored a defensive TD was in 2013.

11) To me, Monday night NFL doubleheaders would be better than having Thursday night NFL games; let the colleges have Thursday night.

10) I’m thinking that football stats should somehow give credit to the QB/WR for yardage they gain via pass interference penalties. Make it a separate category but it should be accounted for.

9) NFL coaches in their first year with their team went 0-7 in Week One, 1-6 vs spread.

8) There were 38 interceptions in Week One of the NFL season; six of those were run back for touchdowns.

Case Keenum threw seven INT’s all of last season; he threw three against Seattle Sunday.

7) NFL injury stuff:
— Carolina TE Greg Olsen re-fractured his foot, is out at least a month.
— Tennessee TE Delanie Walker (ankle) is out for the year.
— Seattle WR Doug Baldwin has a partially torn MCL.
— Rams’ PR/KR Pharoh Cooper (ankle) will miss several weeks.

6) College football schedule changes for this week:
— BC-Wake Forest moved up to 5:30 Thursday
— UCF-North Carolina PPD
— West Virginia-NC State PPD
— East Carolina-Virginia Tech PPD
— Ohio-Virginia, moved from Charlottesville to Nashville, TN

5) In his career, Ben Roethlisberger is 21-2-1 against Cleveland; Tyrod Taylor was the 14th QB to start against the Steelers in those 24 games. The only two QB’s to beat Big Ben for the Browns?

Brian Hoyer and Brady Quinn.

4) Astros’ reliever Brad Peacock was sent back to Houston with hand, foot and mouth disease; lot of that going around the major leagues this season.

3) The jumbotron in George Washington U’s basketball arena collapsed onto the floor Tuesday, creating a pretty large mess in the gym.

2) A’s pitcher Sean Manaea is having his shoulder operated on and probably won’t be back until 2020.

1) Rounders is probably my favorite movie ever (other than Moneyball, which is in a separate category); the great poker movie opened in theaters 20 years ago Tuesday, but if you like playing cards or gambling in general, it remains a classic.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 3


Thursday, September 13

Boston College @ Wake Forest

Game 103-104
September 13, 2018 @ 5:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston College
98.173
Wake Forest
94.700
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston College
by 3 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston College
by 6
54
Dunkel Pick:
Wake Forest
(+6); Under

Tennessee Tech @ Utah State

Game 211-212
September 13, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee Tech
39.128
Utah State
90.009
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah State
by 51
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah State
by 42 1/2
61 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Utah State
(-42 1/2); Over

Robert Morris @ James Madison

Game 867-868
September 13, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Robert Morris
31.232
James Madison
93.211
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
James Madison
by 62
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
James Madison
by 29 1/2
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
James Madison
(-29 1/2); Over


Friday, September 14

Georgia State @ Memphis

Game 105-106
September 14, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia State
69.535
Memphis
94.221
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 24 1/2
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
by 27 1/2
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia State
(+27 1/2); Over

Brown @ Cal Poly

Game 801-802
September 14, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brown
34.622
Cal Poly
53.968
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cal Poly
by 19 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cal Poly
by 17
45
Dunkel Pick:
Cal Poly
(-17); Under


Saturday, September 15

UTEP @ Tennessee

Game 107-108
September 15, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UTEP
51.595
Tennessee
78.772
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 27
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 30 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
UTEP
(+30 1/2); Under

Ball State @ Indiana

Game 109-110
September 15, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ball State
73.481
Indiana
83.526
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 10
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 15
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Ball State
(+15); Over

Temple @ Maryland

Game 111-112
September 15, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Temple
75.805
Maryland
86.148
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Maryland
by 10 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Maryland
by 16
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Temple
(+16); Under

Massachusetts @ FIU

Game 113-114
September 15, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Massachusetts
70.758
FIU
72.819
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
FIU
by 2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
FIU
by 4 1/2
60 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Massachusetts
(+4 1/2); Over

Miami-FL @ Toledo

Game 115-116
September 15, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami-FL
100.810
Toledo
87.067
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami-FL
by 14
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami-FL
by 10
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami-FL
(-10); Under

Hawaii @ Army

Game 117-118
September 15, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Hawaii
78.692
Army
88.256
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Army
by 9 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Army
by 6 1/2
62
Dunkel Pick:
Army
(-6 1/2); Over

Kent State @ Penn State

Game 119-120
September 15, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kent State
65.939
Penn State
115.496
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Penn State
by 49 1/2
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 34
63
Dunkel Pick:
Penn State
(-34); Over

Central Florida @ North Carolina

Game 121-122
September 15, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Florida
99.290
North Carolina
77.812
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Florida
by 21 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Florida
by 14 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Central Florida
(-14 1/2); Under

Old Dominion @ Charlotte

Game 123-124
September 15, 2018 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Old Dominion
55.941
Charlotte
58.404
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Charlotte
by 2 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Old Dominion
by 2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(+2); Under

Florida State @ Syracuse

Game 125-126
September 15, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida State
87.686
Syracuse
86.586
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida State
by 1
74
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida State
by 3 1/2
68
Dunkel Pick:
Syracuse
(+3 1/2); Over

Oklahoma @ Iowa State

Game 127-128
September 15, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma
110.862
Iowa State
102.128
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma
by 8 1/2
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma
by 18
55
Dunkel Pick:
Iowa State
(+18); Over

Troy @ Nebraska

Game 129-130
September 15, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Troy
83.719
Nebraska
81.370
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Troy
by 2 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nebraska
by 11 1/2
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Troy
(+11 1/2); Under

Rutgers @ Kansas

Game 131-132
September 15, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Rutgers
75.729
Kansas
76.489
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas
by 3
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Rutgers
(+3); Under

East Carolina @ Virginia Tech

Game 133-134
September 15, 2018 @ 12:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
East Carolina
77.586
Virginia Tech
102.031
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia Tech
by 24 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia Tech
by 28
48
Dunkel Pick:
East Carolina
(+28); Over

Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh

Game 135-136
September 15, 2018 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Tech
88.363
Pittsburgh
87.274
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia Tech
by 1
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia Tech
by 4 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+4 1/2); Over

Vanderbilt @ Notre Dame

Game 137-138
September 15, 2018 @ 2:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vanderbilt
88.561
Notre Dame
93.840
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Notre Dame
by 5 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Notre Dame
by 14 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Vanderbilt
(+14 1/2); Under

Ohio @ Virginia

Game 139-140
September 15, 2018 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ohio
82.096
Virginia
79.192
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio
by 3
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia
by 5 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio
(+5 1/2); Under

SMU @ Michigan

Game 141-142
September 15, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
SMU
70.132
Michigan
100.372
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan
by 30
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan
by 35 1/2
53
Dunkel Pick:
SMU
(+35 1/2); Over

Southern Miss @ Appalachian St

Game 143-144
September 15, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Southern Miss
78.747
Appalachian St
87.361
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Appalachian St
by 8 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Appalachian St
by 16
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Southern Miss
(+16); Under

Boise State @ Oklahoma State

Game 145-146
September 15, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boise State
104.245
Oklahoma State
103.723
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boise State
by 1
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma State
by 3
63 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boise State
(+3); Over

Brigham Young @ Wisconsin

Game 147-148
September 15, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brigham Young
81.434
Wisconsin
107.083
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wisconsin
by 25 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wisconsin
by 21
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Wisconsin
(-21); Under

West Virginia @ NC State

Game 149-150
September 15, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
West Virginia
101.170
NC State
94.223
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
West Virginia
by 7
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
West Virginia
by 3 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
West Virginia
(-3 1/2); Over

Miami of Ohio @ Minnesota

Game 151-152
September 15, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami of Ohio
75.445
Minnesota
87.837
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 12 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 15
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami of Ohio
(+15); Over

LSU @ Auburn

Game 153-154
September 15, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LSU
100.952
Auburn
103.167
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Auburn
by 2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Auburn
by 10
45
Dunkel Pick:
LSU
(+10); Under

South Florida @ Illinois

Game 155-156
September 15, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
South Florida
92.753
Illinois
78.397
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Florida
by 14 1/2
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Florida
by 10
59
Dunkel Pick:
South Florida
(-10); Over

Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois

Game 157-158
September 15, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Michigan
65.230
Northern Illinois
82.184
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Northern Illinois
by 17
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northern Illinois
by 13 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Northern Illinois
(-13 1/2); Under

Georgia Southern @ Clemson

Game 159-160
September 15, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Southern
76.667
Clemson
106.454
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Clemson
by 30
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Clemson
by 34
45
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia Southern
(+34); Under

New Mexico @ New Mexico St

Game 161-162
September 15, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Mexico
65.370
New Mexico St
65.772
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Mexico St
Even
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Mexico
by 5 1/2
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico St
(+5 1/2); Over

Tulane @ UAB

Game 163-164
September 15, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tulane
82.998
UAB
67.022
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tulane
by 15
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tulane
by 3 1/2
57
Dunkel Pick:
Tulane
(-3 1/2); Over

Duke @ Baylor

Game 165-166
September 15, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Duke
88.926
Baylor
97.378
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baylor
by 8 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baylor
by 6
50
Dunkel Pick:
Baylor
(-6); Under

Colorado State @ Florida

Game 167-168
September 15, 2018 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado State
74.043
Florida
85.270
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida
by 11
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida
by 20 1/2
56
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado State
(+20 1/2); Under

Houston @ Texas Tech

Game 169-170
September 15, 2018 @ 4:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
89.625
Texas Tech
91.606
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas Tech
by 2
76
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
71
Dunkel Pick:
Texas Tech
(+1 1/2); Over

TX-San Antonio @ Kansas State

Game 171-172
September 15, 2018 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
TX-San Antonio
67.386
Kansas State
91.606
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas State
by 24
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas State
by 21 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas State
(-21 1/2); Under

North Texas @ Arkansas

Game 173-174
September 15, 2018 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
North Texas
74.305
Arkansas
83.820
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arkansas
by 9 1/2
74
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas
by 7
70
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas
(-7); Over

San Jose St @ Oregon

Game 175-176
September 15, 2018 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Jose St
57.489
Oregon
94.031
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oregon
by 36 1/2
72
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oregon
by 42
69
Dunkel Pick:
San Jose St
(+42); Over

Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo

Game 177-178
September 15, 2018 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Eastern Michigan
84.685
Buffalo
78.655
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Eastern Michigan
by 6
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 5
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Eastern Michigan
(+5); Under

Oregon State @ Nevada

Game 179-180
September 15, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oregon State
70.649
Nevada
79.639
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nevada
by 9
76
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nevada
by 3 1/2
70
Dunkel Pick:
Nevada
(-3 1/2); Over

Alabama @ Mississippi

Game 181-182
September 15, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Alabama
121.402
Mississippi
97.451
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alabama
by 24
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alabama
by 21
71
Dunkel Pick:
Alabama
(-21); Under

Arkansas St @ Tulsa

Game 183-184
September 15, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arkansas St
78.921
Tulsa
75.659
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arkansas St
by 3 1/2
77
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas St
by 1
72
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas St
(-1); Over

Texas State @ South Alabama

Game 185-186
September 15, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas State
53.574
South Alabama
67.251
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Alabama
by 13 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Alabama
by 10 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
South Alabama
(-10 1/2); Under

Middle Tennessee St @ Georgia

Game 187-188
September 15, 2018 @ 7:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Middle Tennessee
75.662
Georgia
114.877
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia
by 41
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia
by 32 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia
(-32 1/2); Over

Marshall @ South Carolina

Game 189-190
September 15, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Marshall
77.041
South Carolina
93.661
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Carolina
by 16 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Carolina
by 13
47
Dunkel Pick:
South Carolina
(-13); Under

Missouri @ Purdue

Game 191-192
September 15, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Missouri
98.219
Purdue
87.959
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Missouri
by 10 1/2
72
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Missouri
by 7
65 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Missouri
(-7); Over

Akron @ Northwestern

Game 193-194
September 15, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Akron
69.617
Northwestern
94.939
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Northwestern
by 25 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northwestern
by 21
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Northwestern
(-21); Under

LA-Lafayette @ Mississippi St

Game 195-196
September 15, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA-Lafayette
66.283
Mississippi St
102.372
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Mississippi St
by 36
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Mississippi St
by 32 1/2
65 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Mississippi St
(-32 1/2); Under

LA-Monroe @ Texas A&M

Game 197-198
September 15, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA-Monroe
66.359
Texas A&M
101.340
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas A&M
by 35
74
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas A&M
by 26 1/2
66
Dunkel Pick:
Texas A&M
(-26 1/2); Over

Western Kentucky @ Louisville

Game 199-200
September 15, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Western Kentucky
69.809
Louisville
90.220
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Louisville
by 20 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisville
by 23 1/2
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Western Kentucky
(+23 1/2); Over

USC @ Texas

Game 201-202
September 15, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
USC
98.514
Texas
90.142
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
USC
by 8 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas
by 3 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
USC
(+3 1/2); Under

Ohio State @ TCU

Game 203-204
September 15, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ohio State
118.139
TCU
102.217
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio State
by 16
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio State
by 12 1/2
60
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio State
(-12 1/2); Under

Washington @ Utah

Game 205-206
September 15, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
109.024
Utah
94.701
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 14 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 6 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-6 1/2); Over

Fresno State @ UCLA

Game 207-208
September 15, 2018 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Fresno State
93.437
UCLA
81.664
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Fresno State
by 12
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UCLA
by 1 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Fresno State
(+1 1/2); Over

Arizona State @ San Diego St

Game 209-210
September 15, 2018 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona State
90.187
San Diego St
90.261
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego St
Even
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona State
by 5
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego St
(+5); Under

Murray State @ Kentucky

Game 213-214
September 15, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Murray State
49.308
Kentucky
91.971
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kentucky
by 42 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kentucky
by 37 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Kentucky
(-37 1/2); Over

Rhode Island @ Connecticut

Game 215-216
September 15, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Rhode Island
65.852
Connecticut
63.877
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Rhode Island
by 2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Connecticut
by 10
60 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Rhode Island
(+10); Under

UC-Davis @ Stanford

Game 217-218
September 15, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UC-Davis
79.452
Stanford
99.631
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Stanford
by 20
70
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Stanford
by 28
67
Dunkel Pick:
UC-Davis
(+28); Over

Lehigh @ Navy

Game 219-220
September 15, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Lehigh
49.640
Navy
86.092
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Navy
by 36 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Navy
by 30
59 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Navy
(-30); Over

Wofford @ Wyoming

Game 221-222
September 15, 2018 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wofford
63.854
Wyoming
85.211
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wyoming
by 21 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wyoming
by 14
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Wyoming
(-14); Under

Eastern Kentucky @ Bowling Green

Game 223-224
September 15, 2018 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Eastern Kentucky
55.356
Bowling Green
63.561
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Bowling Green
by 8
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Bowling Green
by 13 1/2
65 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Eastern Kentucky
(+13 1/2); Over

New Hampshire @ Colorado

Game 225-226
September 15, 2018 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Hampshire
57.851
Colorado
88.334
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado
by 30 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
by 35 1/2
53
Dunkel Pick:
New Hampshire
(+35 1/2); Under

Idaho State @ California

Game 227-228
September 15, 2018 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Idaho State
56.440
California
89.925
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
California
by 33 1/2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
California
by 36 1/2
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Idaho State
(+36 1/2); Over

Norfolk St @ Liberty

Game 229-230
September 15, 2018 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Norfolk St
00.000
Liberty
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Norfolk St

Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Norfolk St

Dunkel Pick:
Norfolk St
PPD

Bethune Cookman @ Florida Atlantic

Game 231-232
September 15, 2018 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Bethune Cookman
46.985
Florida Atlantic
89.826
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 43
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 37 1/2
60
Dunkel Pick:
Florida Atlantic
(-37 1/2); Under

Alabama A&M @ Cincinnati

Game 235-236
September 15, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Alabama A&M
38.398
Cincinnati
80.940
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 42 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 37 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-37 1/2); Under

Delaware St @ Western Michigan

Game 237-238
September 15, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Delaware St
25.239
Western Michigan
76.959
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Western Michigan
by 51 1/2
74
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Michigan
by 46 1/2
71
Dunkel Pick:
Western Michigan
(-46 1/2); Over

Northern Iowa @ Iowa

Game 239-240
September 15, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northern Iowa
78.941
Iowa
102.101
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Iowa
by 23
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Iowa
by 20
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Iowa
(-20); Under

East Washington @ Washington St

Game 241-242
September 15, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
East Washington
71.078
Washington St
93.596
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington St
by 22 1/2
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington St
by 16 1/2
63
Dunkel Pick:
Washington St
(-16 1/2); Over

Prairie View @ UNLV

Game 243-244
September 15, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Prairie View
55.892
UNLV
74.410
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UNLV
by 18 1/2
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UNLV
by 24 1/2
67
Dunkel Pick:
Prairie View
(+24 1/2); Under

Southern Utah @ Arizona

Game 245-246
September 15, 2018 @ 11:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Southern Utah
65.619
Arizona
78.740
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 13
77
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 21
71
Dunkel Pick:
Southern Utah
(+21); Over

[StarDust Bum]

college football best bets aug-sept.

Date w-l-t % units record

09/08/2018 31-37-2 45.59% -48.50
09/07/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/03/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
09/02/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/01/2018 30-22-0 57.69% +29.00
08/31/2018 4-8-0 33.33% -24.00
08/30/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
08/25/2018 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00

total..............77-73-25.......51.33%.....-45.50



best bets ats and o/u

09/08/2018...........13 - 15............-17.50..................13 - 3.............+48.50............26 - 18......+31.00
09/07/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50....................0 - 1...............-5.50...............0 - 2........-11.00
09/03/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............1 - 1.........-0.50
09/02/2018.............1 - 0..............+5.00...................1 - 0...............+5.00..............2 - 0........ +10.00
09/01/2018............13 - 6.............+32.00.................5 - 2...............+14.00............18 - 8.......+46.00
08/31/2018.............1 - 3..............-11.50..................2 - 4...............-12.00..............3 - 7.........-23.50
08/30/2018.............2 - 1..............+4.50...................2 -1...............+4.50...............4 - 2.........+9.00
08/25/2018.............2 - 0..............+10.00.................2 - 0..............+10.00..............4 - 0........+20.00

total.....................32 - 27............+11.50.................26 - 11.............+69.50............58 - 38......+81.00

[StarDust Bum]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 2
September 9, 2018
By Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the second big college football weekend. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

TCU (-23½) 42, SMU 12: The Mustangs led 9-0 early looking like a promising underdog Friday night in a game that started late after a long weather delay. A 78-yard punt return touchdown put TCU on the board and by halftime, the Horned Frogs led 14-12. SMU allowed its fourth non-offensive touchdown of the season in just two games with a fumble return for a touchdown in the third quarter and TCU slipped past the spread with two fourth quarter touchdowns for a 30-point win, the last score coming with just over six minutes remaining on a drive of only 15 yards after another long punt return.

South Florida (+3½) 49, Georgia Tech 38: The home underdog Bulls led much of the game, but Georgia Tech scored on a pair of Tobias Oliver touchdown runs surrounding the switch to the fourth quarter to suddenly lead 38-28 on the road. South Florida quickly answered to climb back within three and then got a red zone fumble and went 88 yards in 10 plays to take the lead. Georgia Tech threw an interception a few plays later which the Bulls eventually turned into another score to secure the minor upset.

Florida Atlantic (-8½) 33, Air Force 27: Bouncing back from a tough opening performance, Florida Atlantic had a 19-7 halftime lead but Air Force battled back to make it a five-point game by the start of the fourth quarter. Florida Atlantic slipped past the favorite number with a 26-yard touchdown pass and added the two-point conversion to lead by 13. Twice Air Force was stopped going for it on fourth down as it appeared that margin would hold, but with under a minute remaining, a Florida Atlantic punt was blocked and returned for a touchdown as Air Force stole the late the late cover.

NC State (-26½) 41, Georgia State 7: NC State fell behind 7-0 to start the game but took control from there and the outcome was never threatened. The Wolfpack were only leading by 20 heading into the fourth quarter and it appeared likely to stay that way until Brady Bodine broke a 39-yard run for a score following a fourth down failure for Georgia State. That put NC State just past the spread with just over three minutes remaining and after a fumble recovery, NC State added a second late score for a misleading final margin.

Oklahoma (-30½) 49, UCLA 21: The Sooners were adjusted to a massive favorite price against UCLA following contrasting Week 1 results and Oklahoma looked like they would still surpass the spread with a 49-14 edge halfway through the fourth quarter. With about four minutes remaining, UCLA completed a 13-play, 85-yard drive for the cover-spoiling score to losing by only 28. Oklahoma only had a yardage edge of 102 yards as the Bruins compiled some late production after allowing six touchdowns in a row after the early 7-0 advantage.

Navy (+6½) 22, Memphis 21: Memphis used two big runs to break open this AAC opener leading 21-9 through three quarters. Navy took advantage of a fumble and found the end zone two plays later with great field position, cutting the margin to just five points and enough for the underdog cover. A 3-and-out was forced defensively and Navy melted nearly seven minutes of clock in going 13 plays for the go-ahead touchdown with just over two minutes remaining for the outright win. Memphis reached the Navy 34-yard-line on its final possession, but failed on 4th down as the Midshipmen held on.

Colorado (+3) 33, Nebraska 28: The Huskers had to wait an extra week for the opener in the Scott Frost era and Nebraska quickly fell behind 14-0 vs. a former Big 8 foe. Nebraska would battle back and eventually took a 28-20 lead on a 57-yard pass play late in the third quarter. Colorado would answer to sit in position to cover, opting not to go for two down two late in the third quarter and trailing by one heading into the final frame. Miscues on both sides followed in the final frame with matching missed field goals before both teams were stopped on 4th-and-1 plays just across midfield.

Nebraska had the ball back up one at the 50-yard-line with six minutes remaining but Adrian Martinez threw an interception on first down. Colorado didn’t take advantage with another missed field goal but the Buffaloes held on defense to get the ball back with just over two minutes remaining. An unnecessary roughness penalty converted a 3rd-and-24 for Colorado and on the next play, Steven Montez delivered with a 40-yard touchdown strike to put the Buffaloes in front with a minute remaining. The two-point conversion was missed as the window was open for Nebraska but the Huskers could not come up with the game-winning score despite reaching the Colorado 20-yard-line in the final seconds.

Iowa (-3) 13, Iowa State 3: This rivalry was tied just 3-3 at halftime and Iowa led just 6-3 through three quarters, even with the closing spread though the Hawkeyes were a slightly larger favorite much of the week. After making a 48-yard field goal, Miguel Recinos missed from 50 early in the fourth quarter but on Iowa’s next possession, the Hawkeyes converted several big third downs on the way to completing an 83-yard touchdown drive to seal the win. Iowa State was a late threat to potentially spoil the cover but after a big 23-yard gain Zeb Noland, who took over after Kyle Kempt was injured, fumbled on a sack two plays later to end the threat near midfield.

Maryland (-13) 45, Bowling Green 14: A glance at the box score suggests a typical B10-MAC blowout with Maryland winning by 31 and posting a 565-158 yardage edge. Bowling Green led 40 minutes into this game and the Terrapins led just 17-14 when the clock hit 15:00 to start the fourth quarter as Bowling Green managed to stay in this game. Maryland added four touchdowns in the fourth quarter while compiling big yardage for some misleading numbers.

Baylor (-16½) 37, Texas-San Antonio 20: -17 was the common number on this game Friday and Saturday before the Bears closed at -16½. The Bears led by 14 entering the fourth quarter, but Texas-San Antonio got the game back within seven and sat in a good position to cover after holding Baylor to a field goal to trail by 10. The Roadrunners went backwards from there however and Baylor managed to burn out most of the remaining time in a 12-play drive that completed with a touchdown for a 17-point lead in the final two minutes.

Clemson (-11½) 28, Texas A&M 26: Clemson led 28-13 in College Station heading into the fourth quarter but the Tigers ran out of gas and nearly got caught for a major upset. The Aggies were in position to score down eight just ahead of the two-minute mark but a fumble was controversially ruled a touchback on a close call. Texas A&M forced a 3-and-out and found the end zone two plays later, but wound up with an interception on the potential tying two-point conversion as Clemson escaped but gave away the cover.

Minnesota (+1) 21, Fresno State 14: The Gophers led by three entering the fourth quarter and added Emmit Carpenter’s second field goal of 50 or more yards in the game to lead by six. A Fresno State 45-yard touchdown pass shifted the result a few plays later however as the Bulldogs led by one, closing as slight favorite but dogged most of the week. Minnesota answered with a 10-play touchdown drive and a successful two-point conversion put the Gophers up by seven heading into the final minutes. Fresno State converted a big 4th-and-3 play late in the game and had a new set of downs at the Minnesota 4-yard line, but Antoine Winfield Jr. made a spectacular interception on a trick play attempt to seal the win and cover for Minnesota.

Colorado State (+13½) 34, Arkansas 27: The Rams had miserable results in the first two games of the season looked on their way to another lopsided loss trailing 27-9 late in the third quarter hosting Arkansas. A touchdown plus a two-point conversion put Colorado State within 10 at the end of the frame and the Rams took over in the fourth. Following three consecutive Arkansas punts, Colorado State scored 17 points including the go-ahead touchdown in the final seconds for the upset.

Oklahoma State (-30½) 55, South Alabama 13: The Cowboys weren’t quite past the number with a 41-13 edge through three quarters but scored within the first minute of the final frame and then added another late touchdown to confirm the result.

Missouri (-20½) 40, Wyoming 13: Missouri led by just 20 heading into the fourth quarter but added 10 points early in the final frame to slide past the favorite spread that nearly reached three touchdowns. Wyoming added a late field goal and had the ball back across midfield in the final minute but simply opted to fold with a late punt.

Utah (-13) 17, Northern Illinois 6: The spread results on this game were varied as the Utes were -10 much of week and right at -11 late in the week before a late climb to -13 by kickoff. It didn’t look likely to matter in this low scoring grind as Northern Illinois hit a field goal with seven minutes remaining to make it a one-point game. Utah answered in kind to go back up by four and then got a game-changing play on defense with an interception returned 40 yards for a touchdown. The Huskies would reach the Utah 35-yard-line on its final possession but the Utes would hold to win by 11.

Arizona State (+4½) 16, Michigan State 13: The late night B1G/Pac-12 clash featured just three points by halftime but the Spartans managed to pull away in the third quarter with a 16-3 advantage as a slight road favorite. The Spartans got a big stop to hold ASU to a short field goal early in the fourth quarter but the game turned with back-to-back big pass plays for a two-play touchdown drive for the Sun Devils to tie the game. Michigan State went backwards after crossing into Sun Devils territory, eventually facing 3rd-and-34 after a fumble on a sack and Arizona State made the most of its final opportunity lining up a field goal for the win as time expired.

Washington State (-30½) 31, San Jose State 0: Washington State isn’t known for its defense but they held San Jose State to only 109 yards last week. The Cougars led 24-0 at the half but then didn’t score again until less than five minutes remaining, slipping past the closing spread although much of the week Washington State was priced higher than 31.

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Week 2 Rewind
September 10, 2018
By Brian Edwards

Georgia stole the show in Week 2 by going on the road and winning 41-17 at South Carolina as an 8.5-point road favorite. UGA raced out to a 14-0 lead before the crowd could get comfortable in their seats.

On a third-and-seven play on USC’s opening drive, junior quarterback Jake Bentley hit junior RB Rico Dowdle in the hands with a pass that was going to come up short of the first-down marker. But Dowdle couldn’t handle the throw, which went through his hands and hit off his shoulder pads along the sidelines.

The ball bounced off Dowdle’s pads into the air and was caught by Deandre Baker, who returned the interception 56 yards to the fringe of the end zone. Baker then pulled a DeSean Jackson (circa MNF at Dallas when he was with the Eagles) and dropped the ball in celebration before he was across the plane of the end zone.

Fortunately for Baker, Juwan Taylor saw his teammates’ potentially crucial mistake and jumped on the ball to get credit for the TD. Two players later on a third-and-eight play, Bentley threw to Dowdle again. And once more, he dropped the pass, this time for what would’ve been a first-down conversion.

UGA promptly drove down the field in four plays and capped the drive with a D’Andre Swift TD run to silence the crowd and take a 14-0 advantage. To its credit, Will Muschamp’s team answered with an 11-play, 75-yard drive to trim the deficit to 14-7. Deebo Samuel found Bryan Edwards for a 13-yard TD pass off a gadget play.

The teams would trade field goals and USC was on the move and into UGA territory late in the second quarter. During that drive, it started to seem as if the Gamecocks might’ve taken Georgia’s best punch, only to weather that storm, and might be on the cusp of getting even just before intermission.

Well, not so much. The Gamecocks’ drive would stall on the fringe of field-goal range, and then UGA’s two-minute offense produced a field goal before halftime for a 20-10 lead. Georgia received to start the second half and produced a TD drive. Then after a defensive stop, UGA would score again to go ahead 34-10 and the outcome was no longer in doubt early in the third quarter.

Jimbo Fisher’s rebuilding job at Texas A&M might not take long. The Aggies certainly looked the part Saturday night in front of an electric crowd at Kyle Field, where they played host to Clemson, a program that’s been to the College Football Playoffs for three straight seasons.

The Tigers were able to get on the airplane to go back home unscathed, but they had to dodge a serious bullet in College Station. Dabo Swinney’s club won a 28-26 decision, but Texas A&M easily took the cash as a 12-point home underdog. The 54 combined points inched ‘over’ the 50.5-point total in the final minute.

Trailing 28-13 going into the fourth quarter, the Aggies made it a one-possession game when Kellen Mond found Quartney Davis for a 14-yard scoring strike with 14:07 remaining. With 46 seconds left, Mond avoided pressure and scrambled to his left and then zipped a dart high into traffic, and Kendrick Rogers elevated to make a spectacular TD grab. However, the two-point conversion failed and the onside kick was unsuccessful.

As gut-wrenching as the defeat was, Fisher had to feel great about producing 501 yards of total offense (compared to Clemson’s 413 yards) against one of the nation’s best defenses. Mond threw for 430 yards and three TDs without an interception. Rogers had seven receptions for 120 yards and two TDs.

Clemson’s Kelly Bryant threw for 205 yards and one TD without an interception. He also ran for a team-best 54 yards and one TD.

Stanford captured a 17-3 win over USC as a five-point home favorite. After being shut down by San Diego State’s defense in a 31-10 season opening win, senior RB Bryce Love rushed for 136 yards and one TD on 22 attempts. TE Kaden Smith had four catches for 77 yards for the Cardinal, which avenged a pair of losses to the Trojans last year.

Kentucky ended the longest active losing streak in an FBS rivalry when it won a 27-16 decision at Florida. The Wildcats had lost 31 straight games to the Gators and hadn’t won in Gainesville since 1979.

UK senior RB Benny Snell gashed the UF defense for 175 rushing yards on 27 carries. QB Terry Wilson ran for 105 yards and one TD on 10 attempts, in addition to completing 11-of-16 passes for 151 yards and two TDs with one interception. The ‘Cats won outright as 13.5-point road underdogs, hooking up money-line supporters with a +425 payout (paid $425 on $100 wagers).

After throwing five TD passes without an interception in a blowout win over FCS foe Charleston Southern last week, third-year sophomore QB Feleipe Franks completed only 17-of-38 passes for 232 yards and two TDs with one interception and a fumble that was returned for a TD on the game’s final play.

If you’re a Gator fan and UF alum (my hand is raised), what was most galling was what we saw out of the offense late in the fourth quarter. When you’re down by 11 points, how on earth is there any thought process other than scoring a TD and then, most importantly (BY FAR!!!), converting a two-point conversion?

I really can’t put into words how much my blood was boiling when Franks found Freddie Swain for a four-yard TD pass with 3:34 remaining. At this point, any QB with a clue signals to his teammates to immediately huddle up and get ready for the two-point conversion. Truth be told, it should be coached into the entire offensive unit that that’s the scenario, but it’s your QB that must lead in this situation. And he should’ve mentioned it beforehand in the huddle a time or two during the drive.

Instead, the entire offense swarms Swain in the end zone celebrating a TD. This is so disturbing on so many levels. First of all, what the hell is there to celebrate about cutting the deficit to five against a UK team you’ve beaten 31 times in a row with less than four minutes remaining and only one timeout left?

Nothing! Nothing is the answer to that question. When the television cameras focused in on Franks, he was literally running off the field without a clue and the play clock was already down to 17 seconds. In other words, it hadn’t even occurred to Franks yet that his team had to go for two. Finally, the offense had to hurriedly huddle up and get a play called.

There was four seconds remaining on the play clock when the Gators broke the huddle. They didn’t get the play off, but the referees inexplicably didn’t whistle them for a delay-of-game flag. The two-point conversion predictably failed and Dan Mullen nearly had to burn his last timeout due to the incompetence of a QB who had zero awareness of time and score.

Ok, let’s move on. As Auburn can attest to circa 2014, it’s not easy to win at Kansas State. Mississippi State made it look that way, though. Joe Moorhead’s club went into Manhattan and dominated from start to finish in a 31-10 victory as a 6.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Sophomore RB Kylin Hill ran for 211 yards and two TDs on only 17 carries, while QB Nick Fitzgerald produced 159 rushing yards on 19 attempts. The Bulldogs enjoyed a 538-213 advantage in total offense.

Arkansas had a 27-9 lead at winless Colorado State midway through the third quarter, but Mike Bobo’s team rallied to win a 34-27 decision as a 14-point home underdog. The Razorbacks joined Tennessee and Texas A&M as the only SEC teams to lose non-conference contests so far, although the Aggies acquitted themselves extremely well.

Missouri generated 601 yards of total offense against one of the nation’s best Group of Five defenses in a 40-13 home win over Wyoming. Drew Lock connected on 33-of-45 passes for 398 yards and four TDs without an interception. We’ll find out more about the Tigers this week when they go on the road in revenge mode to face a Purdue team’s that’s in desperation mode after dropping a pair of nail-biters at home vs. Northwestern and Eastern Michigan.

I feel like at least 90 percent of college football scribes destroyed Arizona State for hiring Herm Edwards. I was in the minority, praising the hire of a coach who has infectious energy and wreaks of class and integrity. The thinking here was that he’d be able to motivate and recruit extremely well, traits that have led some coaches to enormous success even if when they didn’t have a clue about clock management and other in-game decisions (yes, Les Miles to come to mind here). And after coaching in the NFL for as long as Edwards did, he certainly knows what he’s doing with in-game moves.

This was on full display Saturday night in Tempe as Edwards milked the entire clock to allow his kicker to make a game-winning field goal in walk-off fashion. ASU and Michigan State were tied and the Sun Devils were in the red zone with about 1:45 remaining and had a first down. If you score on the next play, the Spartans have plenty of time to answer and force overtime.

Edwards opted to kneel on it a few times and have the game decided on a chip-shot FG. The strategy worked and ASU improved to 2-0 with a 16-13 win over the Spartans, who brought back 19 starters from a 10-3 team, as a 4.5-point home underdog. The Sun Devils have another tough non-conference game on deck at San Diego State, and the early returns on the Edwards hire are making most national pundits look foolish.

Staying in the Pac-12 South, the hire of Kevin Sumlin at Arizona is a different story compared to the new guy at arch-rival ASU. The Wildcats lost 45-18 at Houston, which was losing to Rice at halftime of its opener last week. Khalil Tate, who ran for 1,411 yards and averaged 9.2 yards per carry in 2017, has run for a total of 22 yards on 15 attempts through two games.

Hawaii QB Cole McDonald continues to light it up. The Warriors knocked off Rice 43-29 to improve to 3-0, but the Owls covered the number as 17-point road underdogs. Bettors on the ‘over’ like me got a super-fortunate win when three TDs were scored in the game’s final 3:01.

In his first three career starts, McDonald has thrown for 1,165 yards and 13 TDs without being intercepted. He’s also run for 125 yards and two TDs, and he’s only been sacked five times. Hawaii is in a horrific travel spot this week at Army in a noon Eastern kick. The Warriors were 6.5-point underdogs as of early Monday afternoon. Remember, they have already won outright at Colorado State (+17) and vs. Navy (+13) when catching a double-digit ‘dog number.

**Quick Hitters**

-- Houston is 2-0 and QB D’Eriq King has a 7/0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

-- LSU’s Joe Burrow wasn’t nearly as sharp in a 31-0 home win over SE Louisiana.

-- Eastern Michigan is 12-1 ATS in its past 13 games as a road underdog after winning 20-19 at Purdue on a late FG.

-- Maryland was in a letdown spot at Bowling Green and trailed 14-10 at intermission. The Terrapins outscored the Falcons 35-0 in the second half, however, to win by a 45-14 count. They enjoyed a 565-158 advantage in total offense.

-- Texas looked awful again in a 28-21 non-covering home win over Tulsa. The Longhorns host USC this week after losing to the Trojans in double overtime last year.

-- Shea Patterson threw three TD passes without an interception in Michigan’s 49-3 win over Western Michigan.

-- Syracuse QB Eric Dungey is the country’s most important player to his team.

-- Samford enjoyed a 535-457 advantage in total offense in its 36-26 loss at Florida State as a 31-point underdog. The Bulldogs, who jumped out to a 13-0 lead midway through the first quarter and had two different nine-point leads, took a 23-21 advantage into the fourth quarter and the Seminoles didn’t get their first lead of the season until scoring a go-ahead TD with 4:03 remaining. A 63-yard pick-six by Levonta Taylor created the misleading final score in FSU’s favor.

-- The Sonny Dykes Era at SMU is off to a dreadful start.

-- It’s only two games, but Barry Odom’s hire of OC Derek Dooley is looking good so far (I had my doubts coming into the season).

-- Vandy has blown out Middle Tennessee (35-7) and Nevada (41-10) to start Derek Mason’s crucial fifth season with a 2-0 record. The Commodores travel to South Bend to take on Notre Dame in Week 3. The other two SEC coaches considered to be on the hot seat entering the 2018 campaign are also 2-0 (LSU’s Ed Orgeron and UK’s Mark Stoops).

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Early Line Moves - Week 3
September 11, 2018

College Football Week 3 Opening Line Report

Where has the early money gone in college football for Week 3? One of the biggest games of the week has seen some serious line movement, as the 4th-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes have gone from a 10-point favorite vs. the 15th-ranked TCU Horned Frogs to a -13.5 point favorite.

Let’s look at some of the other big early line moves for Week 3 and also some of the line movement around the key number of three.

Odds per BetDSI

Week 3 Early Line Moves

Ohio State -10 to -13.5 vs. TCU
Bettors are pounding the Buckeyes in this neutral site game against the Horned Frogs. Both teams have looked good so far this season, as the Buckeyes have routed Oregon State and Rutgers, while TCU has rolled over Southern and SMU. It is somewhat surprising that the line has moved this much, especially with the game being played in Arlington.

Central Florida -11 to -14.5 at North Carolina
There is not much love for North Carolina in this game, as bettors have been taking Central Florida like the game is already over. This line has gone past two touchdowns with the Knights road favorites. UCF hasn’t played anyone of note, but they routed Connecticut and South Carolina State. The Tar Heels were competitive in a loss to California in Week 1, but then shockingly were routed last week by East Carolina as 16.5-point favorites. It is rare for a team to lose by double-digits when they are actually double-digit favorites, but that is what happened to North Carolina last week, as they were beaten 41-19.

Georgia Tech pick to -3.5 at Pittsburgh
This game has moved past the key number of three, so you can also put this into the key number line move category. The Yellow Jackets rolled over Alcorn in Week 1 but they were beaten at South Florida last week as 3-point favorites. Pittsburgh is coming off a humiliating loss to Penn State last week, so bettors may be reacting to that defeat.

Kent +37 to +34 at Penn State
Bettors are actually backing a road underdog, as they have taken Kent down from +37 to 34 vs. Penn State. It is rare when an inferior team gets a lot of love on the road against a power team, so this line move may be worth paying attention to. Kent lost by seven in Week 1 at Illinois and covered the spread, so perhaps they can slip under this big number.

Nebraska -7.5 to -10.5 vs. Troy
Bettors are expecting a bounceback from Scott Frost’s Cornhuskers this week on the road at Troy. Nebraska lost a tough one last week to Colorado and now travel to face Troy. The Trojans were blown out by Boise in Week 1 and then routed Florida A&M last week.

Oregon -38 to -41.5 vs. San Jose State
This is more of what we expect from big line moves when it comes to marquee teams facing inferior ones. The Ducks have looked great so far this season and should be able to name the score in this one.

Arkansas State +1.5 to -2 at Tulsa
This line move qualifies simply because it moved more than three points, but the game still is basically a pick and not one to get too excited about.

Key Number Line Moves

Rutgers +4 to +3 at Kansas
This line has moved off the key number of three, but it is a matchup between two rotten teams. It really looks like a game to avoid, but bettors are taking Rutgers.

West Virginia -1 to -3.5 at NC State
The Mountaineers have gone from a one-point choice to now laying more than a field goal on the road at NC State. The Mountaineers have a Heisman Trophy contender in Will Grier, but laying points on the road in conference play can be tricky.

Tulane -2.5 to -4 at UAB
The Green Wave has moved from a 2.5-point favorite to a 4-point choice, so this game has moved right past the key number of three.

Buffalo -3 to -5 vs. Eastern Michigan
This game has moved a little bit to Buffalo and it is past the key number of three. This is another game where the road team is getting some serious action.

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Power 5 Top Wagers
September 11, 2018
By Kyle Markus

Power 5 Best Bets - Week 3

The college football season is in full swing and already we have been an audience to some fantastic finishes and upsets. There is a whole bevy of intriguing contests this week and weekend as some teams head into conference play while others still prepare for non-conference matchups.

There are a variety of spreads and scoring totals to wager on, from toss-up type games to ones where there is a clear favorite. There are games that are expected to be low-scoring as well as others that could be shootouts.

It’s hard to zero in on certain games to bet on besides the old alma mater, so here is a good guide for the best Power 5 conference bets in Week 3 of the college football season. We should brace for another week of unexpected upsets and close finishes in NCAA football gambling.

Odds Analysis - per BookMaker.eu

The Miami Hurricanes fell flat in their supersized opener against LSU, leaving the offense at home in the loss. Even so, Miami is a pretty good team and isn’t getting much respect as a 10-point favorite on the road against the Toledo Rockets. Toledo is solid for a smaller-conference program but Miami has the superior talent across the board. The Hurricanes offense should look better in this one than against LSU and help the team cover the spread.

The Penn State Nittany Lions were taken to overtime by a pesky Appalachian State team in their opener, which has people wondering if this is truly a team that can compete in the Big Ten. Penn State gets another tune-up this week against an easy foe in Kent State, but the 34-point spread is too high. The Nittany Lions aren’t high-powered enough to cover.

The LSU Tigers are going to Auburn in a pivotal SEC clash. Even though LSU has looked good thus far, Auburn has also played well, including a win over Washington in a season-opening clash. Auburn is a 9.5-point home favorite in this matchup, but that spread is too high. Look for LSU to keep it much closer and easily cover the spread. An LSU upset is not a bad choice on the moneyline as it would pay out nicely.

The Florida Gators are coming off a shocking 27-16 loss to Kentucky last time out and will aim to prove that was an aberration. Florida is a heavy 20-point home favorite against Colorado State, as the Rams are not a very good team. Even so, the oddsmakers haven’t learned. The Gators just aren’t that good in 2018 and will fail to cover this spread.

Ohio State has to travel a good distance to face off against a ranked TCU team, and maybe that is why the Buckeyes are only a 12-point favorite. They have been dominating teams thus far and could very well be the second-best team in the country behind Alabama. Urban Meyer is suspended for this one as well but it won’t matter. The Buckeyes are the pick to cover.

The Arizona State Sun Devils have looked really good in their first two games, and a win over a ranked Michigan State team last time out has pushed them into the top-25. The Sun Devils are only a 4.5-point road favorite against San Diego State next time out. The Aztecs are a solid program and have a good running game, but quarterback Christian Chapman has a knee injury and won’t play in the matchup. Arizona State has an experienced quarterback and one of the best wide receivers in the country in N’Keal Harry. On defense they will be able to load up against the run and force San Diego State into throwing the ball with a backup. The Sun Devils are the choice to cover this spread in NCAA football wagering.

College Football ATS Pick: Best Power 5 wager is Arizona State -4.5 points against San Diego State

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Alabama at Mississippi
September 11, 2018
By Tom Wilkinson

College Football Preview – Alabama at Mississippi

The top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide visit the Mississippi Rebels on Saturday night in a game that can be seen on ESPN. It should be a high scoring game, as both teams feature potent offenses, as the Crimson Tide have Tua Tagovailoa, while the Rebels feature Jordan Ta’amu. The difference between the two teams is that Alabama has a defense, while Ole Miss does not.

Let’s look at this contest and college football picks.

Date and Time: Saturday, September 15, 2018, 7:00 p.m. ET
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
College Football Odds at BetDSI: Alabama -20
Alabama vs. Mississippi TV Coverage: ESPN

The Crimson Tide have rolled over Louisville and Arkansas State, covering both games, with each game going over the total, while the Rebels routed Texas Tech 47-27 in Week 1 and then took out Southern Illinois 76-41 in Week 2.

It will be interesting to see what oddsmakers do with the total on this game, because whatever number they put out is not going to be high enough. The Rebels scored 76 points last week in a win over Southern Illinois and Ole Miss has the second-ranked offense in the country. The Crimson Tide are also excellent on offense led by Tagovailoa who is a serious Heisman candidate. It has been difficult to beat Alabama in past seasons, but this year it looks to be even tougher. The previous way to beat Alabama was to shut down the run and force them to throw, but forget about that idea this season, as Tua is an excellent quarterback. He has thrown six touchdowns this season and is averaging 13 yards per attempt.

Matchup to Watch

If the Rebels are to have any chance in this game they will have to score almost every time they have the ball because their defense is terrible. The matchup to watch is the Ole Miss passing attack against the young Alabama secondary. The Crimson Tide went into this season having to replace their top six defensive backs. So far the Crimson Tide has looked good in the secondary, giving up just 235 passing yards per game. Deionte Thompson looks really good and Alabama continues to improve against the pass.

Saturday’s game will be the biggest test for the Alabama secondary. Ole Miss quarterback Ta’amu leads the SEC with 784 passing yards and he is second with 7 TD passes. He’s completing almost 70 percent of his passes, averaging just over 12 yards per attempt. The Rebels have some excellent receivers led by A.J. Brown who is a top receiving prospect for the 2019 NFL Draft. He has caught 15 passes for 251 yards with 3 TDs. D.K. Metcalf has caught 11 passes for 174-yards and 2 TDs. DaMarkus Lodge missed last week, but he has 6 catches for 96 yards.

Key Stats

The Crimson Tide are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings at Mississippi. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September. The Crimson Tide are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games on grass. The Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Rebels are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 conference games. The Rebels are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Looking at the total, the Over is 5-0 in Alabama’s last 5 games in September. The Over is 11-1 in the Rebels last 12 home games. The Over is 8-2 in the Rebels last 10 conference games.

Alabama vs. Mississippi Picks

I lean toward Alabama in this game, but Ole Miss has the offense to get a backdoor cover. Where I am focusing is on the total. I don’t think oddsmakers can put up a number high enough for this game. Alabama is almost a given to score at least 40 points and I expect them to put up more than 50. Ole Miss will probably be good for at least 20, so I think these two teams will combine to score more than 70 points. I will go over the total in this contest.

Alabama vs. Mississippi Pick: Over the total
Alabama vs. Mississippi Score Prediction: Alabama 54, Mississippi 23

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Boston College at Wake Forest
September 11, 2018
By Joe Nelson

The second ACC game of the season kicks off Thursday night as Boston College and Wake Forest meet in a battle of Atlantic Division squads that both made bowl games last season.

Clemson is the clear favorite in the Atlantic but the rest of the division looks wide open as the opportunity to compete is there for both squads. The ACC is going to be heavily impacted by Hurricane Florence this weekend and this game has been moved up two hours.

Here is a look at the opening game of the next college football week.

Matchup: Boston College Eagles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Venue: BB&T Field in Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 13, 5:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: Boston College -7, Over/Under 52½
Last Meeting: 2017, Wake Forest (PK) 34, at Boston College 10

Anthony Brown had a nice freshman season at quarterback for Boston College although he was injured late in the season and missed the final three games. His worst performance of the season wasn’t vs. Clemson or Notre Dame or any of the other formidable defenses in the ACC; it was a September contest at home vs. Wake Forest.

In his second game Brown completed just 38 percent of his passes and had three interceptions as Wake Forest won easily in Boston. The 4-0 turnover margin was the difference as the production numbers were similar but an interception returned for a touchdown just before halftime put Wake Forest up 21-7 at the break. Boston College scored a field goal to get back within 11 in the third quarter but another interception late in the third quarter set up the Demon Deacons at the 2-yard-line and that score put the game out of reach.

Brown had a big first game of 2018 in Boston College’s 55-21 win over Massachusetts with four touchdown passes but he played sparingly last week in the win over FCS Holy Cross as the Eagles rested starters early with a 21-0 edge in the first quarter. This year’s team has the potential to be the best Boston College offense since perhaps the Matt Ryan years with almost everyone back from last season for Steve Addazio.

Addazio is now 33-33 at Boston College with four 7-6 campaigns and one tough season in 2015. The Eagles are poised to take a step further this season and could even contend in the Atlantic with Clemson visiting Boston in November. Tricky non-conference games at Purdue and home vs. Temple are next on the schedule and the Eagles do have a tough Coastal draw pulling both Miami and Virginia Tech however.

For Wake Forest Dave Clawson has delivered back-to-back winning seasons after going just 6-18 in his first two seasons, taking over after building a successful program at Bowling Green. Wake Forest won eight games last season for the program’s best record since 2008 and the Demon Deacons are off to a 2-0 start this season. Wake Forest survived an overtime game at Tulane in an opening week Thursday night while besting FCS Towson 51-20 last week.

The quarterback situation has revolved for Wake Forest after the graduation of John Wolford who was a very efficient 3,000 yard passer last season. Junior Kendall Hinton played in five games last season and was the expected starter but he was suspended for the first three games of the season. Sophomore Jamie Newman appeared to be in the mix but he was injured in August. Freshman Sam Hartman has started the first two games and has been effective with 620 passing yards, though he has three interceptions and a fumble already.

The Wake Forest defense has offered some reason for concern as Towson posted 410 yards last week though Wake Forest was able to pull away in the second quarter thanks to a pair of punt return touchdowns from Greg Dortch. The sophomore is on pace to being one of the top receivers in the ACC this season after leading the team in receptions last year. Wake Forest allowed more than 450 yards per game in ACC play last season as this is a team that is going to need to score to pick up wins in conference play.

Boston College allowed just 22 points per game in ACC play last season but they surrendered 386 yards per game as there was some good fortune in the lower scoring numbers. The defense has looked the part this season but as the schedule stiffens there could be challenges with a few key players from last season absent.

The stakes are high for both teams as getting to a 3-0 start would provide a great boost towards bowl hopes. It may be a more critical game for Wake Forest who is in the midst of a five-game home stand but has games vs. Notre Dame and Clemson as a loss here would mean a 3-3 start is likely heading into a road-heavy second half of the schedule.

Winston-Salem is significantly inland but appears to be right on the projected path of the hurricane which is expected to make landfall on Friday. Significant rain is not expected at game time Thursday evening but it will be humid and winds could be in the 20-25 MPH range as the passing and kicking games could face some impact. It is also might mean a subdued home field edge for Wake Forest in what might normally be one of the biggest home dates of the season with a national TV night game.

Wake Forest has covered in nine of 15 meetings since 2003 but has lost S/U in the past two home meetings in 2014 and 2016. The 34 points scored by the Demon Deacons last season was the most they have scored in those 15 meetings while Boston College hasn’t topped 27 points in any of the past 10 games in this series.

Historical Trends:

-- Wake Forest is on a 25-14 ATS run as a home underdog since 2004, going 2-0 last season including an outright upset over Louisville.

-- Since Clawson took over in 2014, Wake Forest is 9-4 ATS as a home underdog although just 3-4 ATS as a home underdog of fewer than 10 points.

-- Boston College is 22-30 ATS since 1994 as a road favorite including going 7-2 S/U but 4-5 ATS under Addazio since 2013.

-- Boston College is 1-3 ATS in that time as a road favorite vs. current ACC teams with this line being the highest ACC road favorite spread for Boston College since a 23-17 win in Winston-Salem in 2014 as a 13-point favorite.

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ACC Report - Week 3
September 11, 2018
By Joe Williams

2018 ACC STANDINGS

ATLANTIC DIVISION

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 2-0 0-0 2-0 2-0
Clemson 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1
Florida State 1-1 0-1 0-2 1-1
Louisville 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1
North Carolina State 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-2
Syracuse 2-0 0-0 2-0 2-0
Wake Forest 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1

COASTAL DIVISION
Duke 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1
Georgia Tech 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1
Miami-Florida 1-1 0-0 1-1 2-0
North Carolina 0-2 0-0 0-1-1 1-1
Pittsburgh 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1
Virginia 1-1 0-0 2-0 1-1
Virginia Tech 2-0 1-0 2-0 1-1

Boston College at Wake Forest (ESPN, 5:30 p.m. ET)
This game has had its kickoff moved up a couple of hours due to the approach of Hurricane Florence to the state of North Carolina, but unlike UNC and N.C. State, they will be playing this week rather than electing to cancel their game. The Eagles head into Winston-Salem as five-point favorites as of Tuesday evening. Boston College enters the game 6-0-1 ATS over their past seven conference games, and 5-0 ATS in their past five outings. In addition, they're 10-1-1 ATS over the past 12 contests dating back to last season while going 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven against winning teams and 13-3 ATS in the past 16 on the road against a team with a winning home mark. Wake has been pretty solid, too, posting a 10-3-1 ATS mark over the past 14 ACC battles while hitting at a 5-2-1 ATS clip across the past eight games at home. However, they're just 3-7 ATS over their past 10 appearances on Thursday and 0-4 ATS in the past four dating back to last season. The 'under' has hit in four straight meetings in Winston-Salem, and each of the past eight in this series, too.

Miami-Florida at Toledo (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Hurricanes hit the road for a date with MAC power Toledo, a team which hung with them in South Florida for a half last season before Miami pulled away in the second half. The public loves Miami in this one, but keep in mind that they are 2-5 ATS in the past seven against winning teams, 1-5 ATS in their past six overall and 0-4 ATS in the past four road contests. While Toledo is 9-2-1 ATS in their past 12 games in September, and 7-3 ATS in the past 10 overall, they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven outside of the conference. The under is 8-1 in Miami's past nine road games, but the over is 4-1 in their past five non-conference battles. The over is 7-3 in Toledo's past 10 non-conference contests, too.

Florida State at Syracuse (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Seminoles dropped their opening game against Virginia Tech, and that also doubled as their conference opener. They can ill-afford another setback, and face a difficult Syracuse team on the road. The Orange have been putting up video game-like offensive numbers, averaging 58.5 points per game (PPG) at Western Michigan and at home against FCS Wagner. As such, the Orange are seventh in the nation in scoring offense, and 30th in total yards with 508.0 per game. FSU is a much better opponent than their previous two, however, and this will be the biggest challenge yet. Florida State enters the game 0-7-2 ATS across the past nine conference battles, and 1-5-2 ATS in their past eight against winning sides. They're also 0-2-2 ATS in the past four on the road against teams with a winning home record. Syracuse, on the other hand, has covered four straight in September while going 8-3-1 ATS in the past 12 overall. The Orange, underdogs by three as of Tuesday evening, might have the advantage. The home team is 5-2 ATS over the past seven in this series. In addition, the under is 6-1-1 in FSU's past eight road games, and 21-7-1 in their past 29 ACC tilts. The under is 9-2-1 in the past 12 at home for 'Cuse, and 13-3-1 in their past 17 inside the league.

Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh (ACC, 12:30 p.m.)
It's another conference opener for both sides when the Ramblin' Wreck invade the Steel City to tangle with the Panthers. Georgia Tech hasn't had difficulty on offense, averaging 39.5 PPG through two outings, but they were trampled for 49 points last week at South Florida and will be looking for redemption. Speaking of trampled, Pitt was embarrassed 51-6 in their rivalry game aginst Penn State, showing how far they are from being an elite team in the nation. These sides met last season in Atlanta, with the Wreck coming up with a 35-17 win on Sept. 23. While Ga. Tech is 0-3-1 ATS in the past four road games, they're an impressive 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 inside the conference. Pitt has posted a 4-1 ATS mark in their past five following a straight-up loss, but they're 7-19 ATS in the past 26 at home and 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven in the month of September.

Georgia Southern at Clemson (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
The Tigers of Clemson opened with Furman, faced a tough road trip to College Station for a battle against Texas A&M, and now it's back to Cupcake City. Might there be a letdown after their emotion win last week against the Aggies? The Eagles have posted a 3-9-1 ATS mark over their past 13 road games, and a trip to Death Valley might not be good for turning that around. Clemson is 8-3 ATS over the past 11 non-conference battles, although they failed to cover the opener against FCS Furman and last week's road game at Texas A&M. As of Tuesday evening the Tigers were favored by 33 1/2 at most shops after opening at 35.

Duke at Baylor (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m.)
Duke packs the road gear for a second straight week after success away from home last week at Northwestern. The Bears also were on the road, toppling Texas-San Antonio to fire out to 2-0 SU this season. These teams met in Durham last season, with the Blue Devils coming away with a 34-20 win on Sept. 16, 2017. Duke could be stranded in Waco for a day or two after the game depending on how the Triangle area is affected by Hurricane Florence, and the approaching storm could be a bit of a distraction for the players, too. They're catching 6 1/2 from the Bears as of late Tuesday evening. Duke is 4-0 ATS in the past four against teams with a winning record, 5-0 ATS in the past five overall and an impressive 20-5-1 ATS in the past 26 non-conference battles. Baylor is 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, 2-9-1 ATS in the past 12 following a straight-up win and 0-4-1 ATS in the past five outside of the conference.

Ohio at Virginia (ACC, 4:30 p.m.)
The Bobcats of Ohio hit the road for Charlottesville for their second game of the 2018 campaign. Virginia suffered a setback last week at Indiana under rainy and sloppy conditions in Bloomington. This is a line that is a bit difficult to understand. Yes, Ohio is rested after a two-week layoff since their opening game win against FCS Howard. Remember, the Bobcats won that game just 38-32, struggling defensively at home. They're expected to hang with a mid-tier Power 5 team on the road, keeping it within three? Ohio allowed 645 total yards, and 484 passing yards against the Bison in that opener, and they even gave up 161 rushing yards. Virginia isn't likely to just win this game, but they might smash the Bobcats.

Western Kentucky at Louisville (ACC, 7:30 p.m.)
Things have been good for Western Kentucky in recent seasons, but 2018 appears to be a down year for the Hilltoppers. They lost their opener at Wisconsin by a 34-3 count, but at least they covered the 36 1/2-point number. However, they returned home last week to take on Maine, the 22nd-ranked team in FCS at the time, and the 'Toppers suffered the embarrassing loss on their home field. Now, they take it on the road to Louisville, a team which gutted out a 31-7 win against FCS Indiana State despite several starts and stops due to lightning and inclement weather. The Cardinals enter the game 0-2 ATS, but are favored by 22 1/2 as of Tuesday evening. A few years ago, Louisville should have joined Confernece USA rather than ACC. OK, that's a stretch, but they are 16-4-1 ATS in their past 21 vs. C-USA opponents, although they're just 1-9-1 ATS in the past 11 outside of the ACC.

Other Games
East Carolina at Virginia Tech (Postponed)
West Virginia at North Carolina State (Canceled)
UCF at North Carolina (Canceled)

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Big 12 Report - Week 3
September 11, 2018
By Joe Williams

2018 BIG 12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 2-0 0-0 0-1-1 2-0
Iowa State 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1
Kansas 1-1 0-0 1-1 0-2
Kansas State 1-1 0-0 0-2 0-2
Oklahoma 2-0 0-0 1-1 2-0
Oklahoma State 2-0 0-0 1-1 2-0
Texas 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1
Texas Christian 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1
Texas Tech 1-1 0-0 1-1 2-0
West Virginia 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1

Oklahoma at Iowa State (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)
The Sooners and Cyclones will open their Big 12 schedule against each other, and Oklahoma heads to Ames with revenge on its mind after a stunning 38-31 loss against I-State in Norman last season despite being favored by 31 points. The Sooners have managed a dismal 1-4 ATS mark in the past five road games, but they're 5-1 ATS in the past six conference battles. Iowa State failed to cover last week in its opener. They started the season one week late after having their first game canceled due to inclement weather. The offense was sluggish at Iowa, losing a low-scoring battle. Their defense was outstanding, however. Iowa State is 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine against teams with a winning record while going 17-5 ATS in their past 22 on a grass surface, 15-5-1 ATS in the past 21 in the Big 12 and 18-7-1 ATS across the past 26 overall. The Sooners, and subsequently the favorite, are 9-4 ATS in the past 13 meetings with the over hitting in five of the past six in this series.

Rutgers at Kansas (No national TV, 12:00 p.m.)
The Jayhawks got off the schneid last week with a shocking 31-7 win at Central Michigan, their first road victory since Sept. 12, 2009, They entered last week's game 18-101 with an NCAA-record 46 straight road setbacks, so their emphatic win in Mount Pleasant was rather stunning. In case you were wondering, the last time Kansas had back-to-back victories came way back in 2011, as the opened the season with wins over FCS McNeese State and North Illinois from Sept. 3-10. They haven't won consecutive games against FBS opponents since a four-game win streak from Sept. 12-Oct. 10, 2009 in the final days of the Mark Mangino era. So, should Kansas be favored against another Power 5 conference team? Well, it is Rutgers, and both barely qualify as Power 5. Rutgers is 4-1 ATS in the past five non-conference battles, while Kansas is 7-18-1 ATS in the past 26 outside of the Big 12.

Boise State at Oklahoma State (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
One of the more anticipated and evenly matched battles on the schedule this week features the red-hot Broncos of Boise State in their most difficult contest they might face all season. Oklahoma State has mashed Missouri State and South Alabama, averaging 56.5 PPG, but they're still rather unproven. It will be one of the more interesting games to watch on the schedule, as we find out a lot about both sides. The Broncos enter this game 4-0 ATS in the past four non-conference while going 4-1 ATS in the past five road games against a team with a winning home record and 7-2 ATS in the past nine overall. The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in the past eight non-conference tilts. As far as the total is concerned, the over is 4-1 in Boise's past five on the road and 11-5 in their past 16 road games against a team with a winning home record. The over is 7-1 in the past eight overall for OK State, while going 72-32-2 in the past 106 at Boone Pickens in Stillwater.

Duke at Baylor (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m.)
Duke packs the road gear for a second straight week after success away from home last week at Northwestern. The Bears also were on the road, toppling Texas-San Antonio to fire out to 2-0 SU this season. These teams met in Durham last season, with the Blue Devils coming away with a 34-20 win on Sept. 16, 2017. Duke could be stranded in Waco for a day or two after the game depending on how the Triangle area is affected by Hurricane Florence, and the approaching storm could be a bit of a distraction for the players, too. They're catching 6 1/2 from the Bears as of late Tuesday evening. Duke is 4-0 ATS in the past four against teams with a winning record, 5-0 ATS in the past five overall and an impressive 20-5-1 ATS in the past 26 non-conference battles. Baylor is 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, 2-9-1 ATS in the past 12 following a straight-up win and 0-4-1 ATS in the past five outside of the conference.

Texas-San Antonio at Kansas State (No national TV, 4:00 p.m.)
The Roadrunners pull into Manhattan to battle the Wildcats, and UTSA is looking to pull the upset. It will be a tall order after a 37-20 setback at home against Baylor last week. They're 0-1-1 ATS in two games so far, both times entering as a 17-point underdog. In this one, they're a three-touchdown underdog. UTSA has hit the 'over' in both outings, thanks mainly to 43.0 PPG allowed. K-State barely escaped in a near-miss against FCS South Dakota before they were tattooed at Bill Snyder Family Stadium last week against Mississippi State. They're 0-2 ATS to date, so being favored by more than three touchdowns is a bit curious. Something's gotta give, though, as UTSA is 1-4 ATS in the past five on the road, 1-3-1 ATS in the past five vs. Big 12 foes and 0-5-1 ATS in the past six overall. K-State is 0-4 ATS in the past four at home and 0-4 ATS in the past four in September.

Houston at Texas Tech (FOX, 4:15 p.m.)
It's an important Lone Star state battle in Lubbock, as the Cougars head west from Houston to take on the Red Raiders. Texas Tech already has a loss this season, coming up short in the opener against Ole Miss by a 47-27 count. They bounced back with a 77-0 win over Lamar, but that proved very little outside of the fact they can beat up a lower-level FCS club. Houston has been more consistent, scoring 45 points in each game at Rice and against Arizona, both wins. Their defense has been decent, allowing just 22.5 PPG, but the Cougars D can be much better. They'll need to be against Texas Tech. The public has hopped on the Cougars, as the Red Raiders opener as a 2 or 2 1/2-point favorite at most shops, while the Cougs are now favored by 1 or 1 1/2. Houston is just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 road games, however, although they're 13-6 ATS in the past 19 outside of the AAC. Texas Tech is 1-4 ATS in the past five at home, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven against teams with a winning record, but 5-2 ATS in their past seven outside of the conference.

Ohio State vs. Texas Christian from Arlington, Tex. (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
The marquee game of the weekend takes place at Jerry World when the Buckeyes and Horned Frogs lock horns. Ohio State has won handily against Oregon State and Rutgers, but a battle against TCU is easily the most difficult test. TCU roughed up FCS Southern by a 55-7 count, and then they bounced SMU 42-12 on the road for their first cover. The defense has allowed just 9.5 PPG, but QB Dwayne Haskins and RBs J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber easily present the largeest test for TCU. The Buckeyes enter the game 7-1 ATS in their past eight neutral-site battles, while going 6-2 ATS in their past eight battles against Big 12 battles. For TCU, they're 2-5 ATS in the past seven outside the conference while going 1-4 ATS in the past five against the Big Ten. They're also a dismal 2-10 ATS in the past 12 neutral-site games and 0-4 ATS in the past four against winning teams. Remember, though, this game is being played in the state of Texas. The 'under is 4-1 in the past five neutral-site games for Ohio State, while going 4-1 in the past five against winning teams. The under is 4-0 in TCU's past four against the Big Ten, 5-1 in the past six agaisnt winning teams and 9-3 in the past 12 overall. However, the 'over' is 9-4 in the past 13 non-conference battles.

Southern California at Texas (FOX, 8:00 p.m.)
The USC-Texas should be a marquee game, but both teams have stumbled out of the gate with a loss each through two games. The Trojans offense was listless in Palo Alto last week, managing just three points in a loss to Stanford. While Texas won last week, a win over Tulsa by just seven points didn't make Longhorns fans and alumni forget about the disappointing neutral-site loss against Maryland on Sept. 1. USC enters this game with a dismal 11-27-1 ATS mark over the past 39 road outings, and they're 0-6 ATS in the past six non-conference tilts and 0-5 ATS in the past five in the month of September. While Texas is 6-2 ATS in the past eight tries against Pac-12 clubs, they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven overall, including 0-2 ATS this season. The 'under' is just 4-1 in the past five for USC in the month of September, but the over is 5-2 in the past seven non-conference tilts. The under is 4-1 in Texas' past five non-conference battles, while going 37-18-1 ATS in the past 56 in Austin.

Other Games
West Virginia at North Carolina State (canceled)

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Week 3 Upset Alerts
September 12, 2018
By Sportsbetting.ag

NCAAF Week 3 Upset Alerts

After coming out with a solid debut piece with this feature in Week 1, last week's results weren't as spectacular. The overall 1-2 ATS (0-3 SU) record from my three selections were not exactly pretty, but the bright spot is the big underdogs (20+) are now 2-0 ATS this season as I'm hoping to hit another one this week.

Yet, it's more about removing this “kiss of death” I've seemingly been putting on these smaller underdogs who are now 0-2 SU and ATS for me. This is the group where most of the outright ML winners should be coming from and to not have one yet is a little disappointing. But a new week brings new possibilities so let's get right to the plays:

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 range

YTD: 0-2 SU; 0-2 ATS

Rutgers +2.5 over Kansas

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights hope their confidence isn't shot after the beating they took against Ohio State last week because nothing unexpected has really happened yet to derail what still could be a good season. Rutgers blew out Texas State as expected in Week 1, got their asses handed to them in Week 2 by Ohio State, and now have a great opportunity to beat a Kansas program that's historically always been bad and has already lost at home to an FCS school this year. Not sure how you can pass this up.

Kansas did find a way to bounce back with a 31-7 SU win as +3 road dogs in Central Michigan last week, but this is not a team that should ever be laying points to any other FBS program. Losing in OT to Nicholls State to start the year as nearly a double-digit favorite proved that that hasn't really changed in Kansas and the school is really just counting down the days until basketball season starts.

On the flip side, Rutgers may have gotten blown out last week, but catching 35 points the optics aren't as bad as just the box score make make it seem. This is still a team that can compete against middle-to-low level programs and Kansas is clearly in that group. Also, Rutgers actually did better vs Ohio State this year than they did a year ago (56-0 loss at home) and they found a way to bounce back with a 35-24 road win over Illinois in their next outing. A similar scoreline could be in store here as Kansas has not won more than three games a season since the 2009 campaign and off a 1-11 SU campaign a year ago, I don't see them getting to three victories in 2018 either.

Rutgers is on a 6-2 ATS run as a program after losing by 20+ points, and are 5-16 ATS after allowing 40+. With Kansas just 1-7 ATS after allowing fewer than 20 points, and 0-4 ATS after a SU win by 20+ points – which is definitely a rarity for the Kansas program – Rutgers should not only cover this spread but win this game outright.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range

YTD: 1-1 SU; 1-1 ATS

Iowa State +17.5 over Oklahoma

This is not a game I'd go out looking to try and be the smartest guy on the block with a Iowa State ML wager here as Oklahoma should get SU win with all the athletes they have, but I'm taking all these points here with a Cyclones program that's always a tough out at home and pulled off arguably the upset of the year a season ago in this game.

Last year it was Iowa State's 38-31 win in Norman, Oklahoma that basically had everyone writing off the 2017 season for the Sooners in regards to a CFB Playoff berth. We all know that Oklahoma eventually got in to that game after running the table after this game, but losing outright as a -31-point home favorite has got to sting.

On the one hand, that puts the Sooners in a very attractive revenge angle spot this week against the Cyclones, but going out and looking for revenge, especially big, 17-point revenge on the road is not exactly ideal. It's the first road game for the Sooners this year which means it's the first true road start for QB Kyler Murray, and with junior RB Rodney Anderson now lost for the year, the Sooners roll into town without a lot of veteran experience in tow.

Meanwhile, Iowa State cannot afford to fall to 0-2 SU after losing the instate war with Iowa a week ago. The Cyclones looked like they had a few of those first game jitters in that Iowa loss (Iowa State's Week 1 game was postponed), as the offense got nothing done in the final three quarters. That shouldn't be a concern against an Oklahoma defense that isn't that good at all – they allowed nearly 30 to a bad UCLA team last week – and with the physical brand of defense the Cyclones play, there is a good chance this game potentially comes down to the wire again. Oklahoma's likely to pull it out but it won't be by more than two TD's.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range

YTD: 2-0 ATS

Akron +21 vs Northwestern

After successfully fading Notre Dame a week ago after their big win over Michigan, it's back to betting against another Midwestern team, albeit this time from the Big 10 conference.

The Northwestern Wildcats were a very popular underdog in Week 1 against Purdue and managed to cash those tickets for bettors that week. But even those handicappers who were holding a Northwestern ticket that day had to be a little confused about the QB time share HC Pat Fitzgerald employed. Everyone came into the year hyping Clayton Thorson as a legit NFL talent and he can't even play a full 60 minutes in a season opener at a program like Northwestern? If that right there wasn't a sign that maybe plenty of those who are around Thorson every day don't buy into the hype surrounding him at all, I'm not sure what is, and it spells a lot of potential bad things happening to this program in 2018.

Thorson and TJ Green (former NFL QB Trent Green's kid) split time again in Week 2 at Duke, each getting throwing an INT and not really getting much of anything done. So chances are we see both QB's split time again this week against an Akron team that at least at face value to Northwestern's players shouldn't give them much trouble this week. But when you consider that neither of Northwestern's QB's have even thrown a TD pass this year, things could end up being much tougher than they would appear for Northwestern this week.

Akron may have caught a break with their season opener against Nebraska getting postponed as they were then able to open up 2018 with an easy 41-7 win over Morgan State. Akron was not expected to have any issues in that game (-42.5) and they really didn't. More importantly, it gave this team – especially on offense – a confidence boost right out of the gate this year and they'd love to parlay it into a road victory over a Big 10 program that's unsure about their own identity. Akron probably won't reach the finish line of that goal, but they should be able to keep it within three TD's.

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Georgia State at Memphis
September 12, 2018
By Brian Edwards

Matchup: Georgia State at Memphis
Venue: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
TV/Time: ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET

When I was on the Chris Vernon Show in Memphis (he’s with Grind City Media these days) in August, I said “there’s not a game on the schedule that isn’t winnable” for the Tigers. This was a true statement but as we head into Week 3, Mike Norvell’s squad is already in bounce-back mode and its hopes of being the Group of Five representative in a New Year’s Day bowl game have almost certainly been dashed.

Memphis (1-1 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) will look to get back in the win column when it hosts Georgia State on Friday night. As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had the Tigers installed as 27 or 27.5-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 58.5.

Norvell’s team came up on the wrong end of a 22-21 decision last week at Navy in a driving rainstorm, falling to the Midshipmen for the third time in four seasons they joined the AAC. Ken Niumatalolo’s team has been listed as an underdog in each meeting with the Tigers, going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS.

Memphis took a 21-9 lead into the fourth quarter at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. However, three fumbles in the wet conditions proved to be the Tigers’ undoing, with Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry orchestrating a pair of TD drives at winning time. Perry’s 19-yard TD run sliced the deficit to 21-16 with 11:06 remaining.

Then with 2:37 left, Zach Abey’s three-yard scamper into the end zone put the Midshipmen in front by merely one point after the two-point conversion attempt failed. Memphis’s last-ditch effort to rally was stymied on a fourth-and-four play when QB Brady White couldn’t find an open receiver and his scramble for a first down came up short of the marker.

The weather obviously had an impact on Memphis’s potent offense that produced 752 yards and 56 points in the first half alone vs. Mercer in Week 1. The Tigers had a 378-316 advantage in total offense at Navy, but they were minus three in the turnover department.

White, the grad transfer from Arizona State, threw for 358 yards and five TDs without an interception in the 66-14 win over Mercer as a 30-point home ‘chalk.’ White connected on 15-of-25 throws for only 145 yards and one interception at Navy.

Junior RB Darrell Henderson, a first-team All-AAC selection last year when he averaged 8.9 yards per carry, busted long TD runs of 78 and 59 yards against the Midshipmen. He finished the night with 212 rushing yards and three TDs on just 13 carries.

Anytime you can limit Navy to 3.6 YPC, you have acquitted yourself quite well defensively. That’s what the Tigers’ defense did, giving up 264 rushing yards on 73 totes. This unit brought back eight starters from a group that gave up 32.5 points per game in 2017.

Sophomore CB T.J. Carter is one of the Tigers’ defensive standouts. He garnered second-team All-AAC honors as a freshman by recording 69 tackles, 11 passes broken up, five interceptions for 74 return yards, one tackle for loss, one QB hurry and one forced fumble. Carter has produced eight tackles, one interception for a pick-six, two PBU, one TFL and one forced fumble through two games.

Senior LB Curtis Akins had a team-best 88 tackles last year. He’s pacing his team in stops currently with 13 and has one forced fumble. Sophomore LB J.J. Russell has been making his presence felt with 10 tackles, two forced fumbles, one sack and 0.5 TFL’s.

Henderson is fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game (144.0 YPG), sixth in rushing yards (288), in a fourth-place tie for rushing TDs with four and second in average yards per carry (13.1 YPC). Junior WR Damonte Coxie has been White’s favorite target to date, hauling in nine receptions for 117 yards and one TD.

Georgia State (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) is in its ninth season since the program started under former Georgia Tech, Alabama and Kentucky head coach Bill Curry back in 2010. The Panthers play out of the Sun Belt Conference and are coached by Shawn Elliott, the former long-time South Carolina assistant who replaced Steve Spurrier as interim head coach in 2015.

After serving as an assistant for one more season at USC under Will Muschamp, Elliott scored the Georgia State job and promptly led it to just the second winning season and postseason appearance in program history last year. The Panthers finished 7-5 SU and 5-6-1 ATS, capturing their first bowl-game win over Western Ky. (27-17) as 6.5-point underdogs at the Cure Bowl.

Elliott’s bunch returned six starters on offense and five on defense. Georgia State captured a 24-20 win over Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point home favorite in Week 1. Dan Ellington, a juco transfer who enrolled early for spring practice, won the QB job in camp and enjoyed a successful debut against the Owls. Ellington hit on 20-of-28 passes for 187 yards and three TDs without an interception, in addition to rushing for a team-high 77 yards on 18 carries.

Junior WR Penny Hart is a two-time All-Sun-Belt first-team choice and was a preseason fourth-team All-American in Phil Steele’s magazine. Hart came into the year with 2,281 career receiving yards to already rank third in school history. He had five receptions for 46 yards and one TD vs. Kennesaw State, while Christian Owens, a transfer from South Carolina, had six grabs for 70 yards and one TD.

Georgia State went to Raleigh last week and lost by a 41-7 count as a 25.5-point road underdog. The Panthers drew first blood on their opening drive that was capped by an eight-yard TD scamper by true freshman RB Destin Coates, a 3-star recruit out of Tallahassee Rickards High School.

The final score was a bit misleading, as the Wolfpack only had a 20-7 lead with four minutes left in the third quarter. Georgia State had 349 yards of total offense, but a lost fumble and two failed fourth-down conversions prevented it from scoring more points.

Ellington connected on 15-of-28 throws for 194 yards at N.C. State. Coates ran for 43 yards and one TD on six carries, while Hart had three catches for 53 yards. Devin Gentry brought down five receptions for 83 yards.

Elliott had to be happy with his run defense that limited the Wolfpack to 117 yards on the ground and a meager 3.8 YPC average. Junior LB Ed Curney has produced a team-high 18 tackles and one TFL, while junior DE Terry Thomas has 16 tackles, one TFL and one forced fumble. If the Panthers want to stay close with Memphis, they’ll have to get pressure on White and improve on their sack total (only one!) through two games.

Georgia State is only 1-2 ATS in three games as a road underdog on Elliott’s watch after failing to cover last week in Raleigh. However, the Panthers are 20-7 ATS as road ‘dogs since 2012. Meanwhile, Memphis has compiled a 6-7 spread record in 13 games as a home favorite since Norvell took over, but the Tigers have covered the spread in six straight games as double-digit ‘chalk’ (home or away).

As of Wednesday, the weather forecast was calling for nearly perfect conditions Friday night at the Liberty Bowl.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- The Ohio-Virginia game has been moved to Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville due to Hurricane Florence. This game will kick at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. Most spots had UVA listed as a six-point home favorite and adjusted the number down to three after the venue relocation was announced Tuesday.

-- The following games have been postponed because of Florence: UCF at North Carolina, West Virginia at North Carolina State and East Carolina at Va. Tech. The time of Thursday’s game between Wake Forest and Boston College in Winston Salem has been moved up to a 5:30 p.m. Eastern kick on ESPN. Finally, Coastal Carolina will take on Campbell on Wednesday afternoon at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.

-- This is the second straight season that UCF has lost a game scheduled against an ACC opponent. The Knights were scheduled to take on Georgia Tech last year before a hurricane cancelled the game. The aforementioned contests can only be made up – since none share the same open date – on Dec. 1 when the conference-championship games are played. -- Georgia Tech RB KirVante Benson is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Benson was a second-team All-ACC choice in 2017 when he rushed for 1,053 yards and six TDs with a 5.2 YPC average.

-- Despite ending its 46-game road losing streak with a 31-7 win at Central Michigan last week, Kansas fourth-year head coach David Beaty remains the +400 ‘chalk’ to be the first head coach removed from his position. This proposition wager at BetDSI is for Power 5 Conference schools and Notre Dame only with Maryland excluded. The next-shortest odds to take a pink slip are for Illinois’ Lovie Smith (5/1), LSU’s Ed Orgeron (6/1), Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly (+750), Rutgers’ Chris Ash (8/1), Texas Tech’s Kliff Kingsbury (10/1), Colorado’s Mike MacIntyre (12/1), Missouri’s Barry Odom (15/1), Washington State’s Mike Leach (20/1) and Syracuse’s Dino Babers (20/1).

-- Sportsbook.ag’s latest odds to win the College Football Playoff have Alabama as the +170 favorite (risk $100 to win $170). The next-shortest odds belong to Clemson (+450), Ohio State (+650), Georgia (8/1), Auburn (12/1), Wisconsin (12/1), Notre Dame (15/1), Oklahoma (15/1) and Washington (20/1).

-- Stanford RB Bryce Love is ‘out’ (rest) for Saturday’s home game vs. UC Davis. The Cardinal is unbeaten with home wins over San Diego State (31-10) and Southern Cal (17-3). They have 40/1 odds to win the CFP at Sportsbook, and I believe David Shaw’s club has the best current value for this future bet.

-- Brian Shoemaker of GameCockCentral.com informed me via e-mail on Wednesday morning that there was a good chance that the Marshall at South Carolina game could get postponed.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 3
September 13, 2018
By BetDSI

CFB Week 3 Total Talk

After following the Week 1 CFB moves I outlined a couple of weeks ago would have brought you a 1-2 record, following last week's moves would have flipped the script as they ended up going 2-1. Georgia and South Carolina showed why that huge initial move was warranted (although there was some buy back closer to kick-off) as Georgia really put it on the Gamecocks from start to finish.

Siding with the shift to the 'under' in the Virginia-Indiana game was the other winner for the week, while my thoughts on the USC/Stanford game being the one more likely to score 57 points compared with that Georgia game couldn't have been more wrong. That's how it goes sometimes, and when you figure my Week 1 Best Bet got postponed, it was only fitting for my Week 2 Best Bet to come up short by a single point.

Penn State outscored Pittsburgh 37-0 in the 2nd half of their blowout win, but it was the three TD's in what was already a 30-6 game that my 'under' selection really didn't need to stomach. But that loss is nothing more than water under the bridge at this point as it's time to take a look at what's been happening with these Week 3 totals.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Biggest Movers to the 'Over'

Ohio vs Virginia: Open: 43 – Current: 54

The Virginia Cavaliers return to this piece for the second consecutive week, although this time it's on the high side of things. The Cavaliers came up short in their 20-16 loss @ Indiana that cashed 'under' tickets for those who followed that move a week ago, but now with Virginia back at home and hosting a MAC squad, it looks like oddsmakers really got this number wrong initially.

I'm not sure I can remember a time in my lengthy time in this industry that I've seen a total move 11 points, and that's not even taking into account that there was some early money on the 'under' in this game, pushing the total in the 40-41 range. Just two days later it sits at 54 and at that number it's basically unplayable unless you're going to go low.

However, that Virginia/Indiana game was probably a little unlucky to stay 'under the total last week as the two teams did combine for 22 of their 36 points in the 1Q alone, and couldn't really get much of anything done after that. Virginia being back at home should smooth out some of that inconsistent play this week – they put up 42 at home vs Richmond in Week 1 – and Ohio loves to play fast as it is. The Bobcats lone game was a 38-32 win over FCS Howard as Ohio's defense really showed a lot of holes that afternoon.

Ohio has had a week off to prepare for that matchup which probably will help the defense – that and some gruelling practices for them these past two weeks – but given how big this line move has been, I'll be doing nothing but sitting on the sidelines here. Chances are this game will end up landing square in the middle of that range – ideal for bettors that got 'over' early and 'under' now – and that's probably why you can only look low now here.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Biggest Movers to the 'Under'

Oregon State vs Nevada: Open: 71.5 – Current: 69.5

Not as much movement towards 'unders' as per usual during the weekdays in CFB as a lot of games tend to get pumped up during the week with lower limits, only to have the same guys come back the other way late, hoping to get a middle – won't typically be as good as the middle opportunity above – in the end. A two-point move is going to be hard to middle in general, but when there are significant 'under' moves early in the week, typically those are the ones you want to pay attention too on at least some level.

For one, after the initial jumps and spikes occur when total lines come out (typically Tuesday mornings in CFB), guys then have time to really look deep into games and try and get ahead of the market. Knowing the general market tends to like to side with 'overs', you'll get more games resemble that of the Ohio/Virginia contest as getting out ahead of the masses is ultimately the goal and betting those 'overs' right out of the gate will often give you plenty of value.

So when you get 'under' moves right out of the gate, the whole thought process has to change. These are still bets being placed with a secondary goal of getting ahead of the masses/line move, but still being made with little to no fear of a possible massive spike upwards as the week goes on that would make a better number available. Oddsmakers can be guilty of waiting for that spike to happen after a first few 'under' tickets have been written, but when it doesn't come, they've got no choice but to follow the money and move the number down.

(As a side note, you can see plenty of 'under' moves be massive with late action coming in on the 'over' but it's less common)

Now regarding this specific game between the Beavers and the Wolfpack, considering three of the four total games these two programs have played in 2018 have cashed 'over' tickets, the lack of 'over' spike and 'under' money had to be respected here. After all, Oregon State has had games of 108 and 73 combined points in them, with the Beavers accounting for 31 and 48 respectively. Even Nevada scored 72 points themselves in the season opener before getting shut down by Vanderbilt last week.

Statistically, especially with both defenses having a rough go of it so far, there is plenty of evidence for an 'over' play here, which makes me respect the 'under' move even more. Obviously it's not the best number available any more, but I'm not sure you can trust either offense in what should be a close game.

Oh, and Oregon State is on a 0-5 O/U run after scoring 40+ points, while Nevada is 1-6 O/U in their last seven non-conference tilts and 11-23 O/U when coming off a SU loss. This is a move I'm going to follow this week for sure.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Total Bet for Week 3

YTD: 0-1

Troy/Nebraska Over 57.5

My play on the 'over' in Nebraska's Week 1 game might have gotten postponed, but although the Cornhuskers fell in Scott Frost's debut with the team I liked what I saw from Nebraska offensively overall last weekend. Granted, QB Adrian Martinez is banged up and won't be at 100% if he plays at all, but Frost has brought that uptempo, super fast offense with him from UCF and regardless of who's taking snaps this week, the Cornhuskers should be able to put up some points.

Troy is a team that gave 56 up to Boise State in Week 1 – in Troy – and managed to do enough offensively to make that game at least look respectable by scoring 20 points. That game was the only time in Troy's last six games dating back to last year that they've failed to score 30+, and we did just see Nebraska give up 30+ to Colorado last week.

With a strong majority on the low side of this total when you look at the betting percentages on VegasInsider.com, I've got no problem going the other way here. Frost's new fast-paced offense and suspect defensive team overall still has the Cornhuskers in a situation early this year where I only really want to look 'over' the total in their games before the lines – and ferocious Big 10 play – really start to catch up to them.