Thursday games
Central Florida went 13-0 LY, after going 0-12 in 2015; now they’ve got a new coach, with Frost off to Nebraska. UCF won 49-24, 24-16 in its last two games with UConn; Knights have QB with 23 career starts- their offensive line has 85 career starts, which is good. UCF covered seven of its last ten road games; they’re 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a favorite. UConn is 17-44 the last five years; since 2014, they’re 5-10 as home underdogs. Huskies have a senior QB with 4 career starts; their OL has 63 career starts.
Northwestern won its last four games with Purdue, winning 45-17/38-14 in last two visits here. Both teams have 100+ starts returning on OL; Wildcats have a senior QB with 39 career starts. Northwestern is 7-6 vs spread in its last 14 road games; they’ve got seven starters back on both sides of the ball. Purdue has nine starters back on offense, only four on defense; they covered seven of last eight tries as home favorites. Boilers lost three of last four season openers that were against I-A opponents. Purdue has two QB’s with experience; which one will start?
New Mexico State got whacked 29-7 at home by Wyoming Saturday; Aggies were outgained 449-135, had 51 penalty yards and minus-9 rushing yards- not good. Since 2015, State is 9-8 vs spread as road underdogs- they’ve got 17 starters back, 9 on defense, a new QB and an OL with 103 starts. Minnesota has 7 starters back on both sides of ball; they’ve got a new QB. Since 2015, Gophers are 4-11 vs spread as a home favorite.
Wake Forest QB Hinton (2 starts LY) is suspended for this game. Deacons (-17) nipped Tulane 7-3 at home in the 2016 season opener. Wake has 14 starters back (8 on offense, 4 on OL- 132 returning starts!!!); they are 1-3 as road favorites the last eight years (0-2 under Clawson)- they covered eight of last 10 non-ACC games. Tulane has 14 starters back, 9 on offense (91 starts on OL); Green Wave is 3-2 as home underdogs under Fritz. Tulane has a senior QB with 11 career starts. Last two years, ACC teams are 8-4 vs spread when facing an AAC opponent.
Friday/Saturday’s best 13 games
Colorado won its last three games with Colorado State 17-3/44-7/27-24; Buffaloes are 12-8 as favorites under MacIntyre, but were just 1-4 LY. Buffs’ QB Montez has 15 career starts; they’ve got only 10 starters back, four on offense. Colorado State (last week’s info). Under Bobo, Rams are 6-8 vs spread out of conference; they covered nine of last 12 games as an underdog. Last three year, Pac-12 teams are 18-15-1 vs spread when facing a Mountain West foe.
Northern Illinois (+3) upset Iowa 30-27 in last meeting five years ago; Huskies covered four of last five games vs Big 14 opponents. NIU has 14 starters back, 8 on offense- their OL has 111 starters back. Huskies are 10-3 vs spread as home underdogs under Carey; their QB is a sop with only 7 career starts. Iowa is 12-22-1 vs spread in its last 35 home games; they’ve got 13 starters back, 7 on offense. Hawkeyes’ QB is a junior with 13 starts. Last three years, MAC teams are 19-10-1 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.
Maryland (+17) went to Austin LY and shocked Texas 51-41, running ball for 263 yards, but Terps had a terrible off-season, with a player dying in conditioning workouts. Hard to tell what effect that will have, but it won’t be good. Maryland is 5-7 vs spread at home with Durkin; their OL has 105 returning starts, but their QB has almost no experience. Texas covered four of five on road in Herman’s first year; Longhorns have two experienced QB’s- their OL has 102 starts. Last four years, Big X teams are 6-5-1 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.
Vanderbilt won its last three games with Middle Tennessee, winning 47-24 (-3) in last meeting here in ‘16. Commodores have 12 starters back, 7 on offense- their senior QB Shurmur (30 starts) is son of the NJ Giants’ coach. Vandy is 13-14 vs spread at home under Mason, 4-8 when a home favorite. MTSU has 17 starters back, 9 on defense; senior QB Stockstill (32 starts) is the coach’s son. Blue Raiders are 6-10-1 in last 17 games as road underdogs. Last three years, SEC teams are 13-6-1 vs spread against Conference USA opponents.
Arizona (-1.5) beat BYU 18-16 in last meeting two years ago, on a neutral field. Arizona debut for Kevin Sumlin, who was 13-19-1 as home favorite in his last job (Tex A&M). Since 2012, Wildcats are 11-13-1 as home favorites; they’ve got 16 starters back, 9 on defense- their mobile junior QB Tate has 9 starts. Arizona’s OL has 66 returning starts. BYU has senior QB with 21 starts; their OL has only 39 returning starts. Cougars have 14 starters back, 7 on both sides of ball; they’re 7-3 as road underdogs under Sitake.
Long trip into SEC country (Atlanta) for Washington squad that has senior QB with 39 career starts, an OL with 97 career starts. Under Petersen, U-Dub is 17-14 vs spread away from home. Huskies have 17 starters back, 9 on defense. Since 2014, Auburn is just 5-14-1 vs spread in out of conference games; Tigers have junior QB with 17 starts- their OL has only 40 returning starts. Auburn has 13 returning starters, 7 on defense. Last seven years, SEC teams are 8-3 vs Pac-12 opponents, but Pac-12 teams won both matchups LY.
Ole Miss-Tex Tech haven’t met since 2009; last two years, Rebels were 2-6 vs spread outside the SEC. Ole Miss has 15 starters back, 8 on offense- their OL has 102 returning starts. Rebels’ QB is a senior with only 5 career starts. Tech has a new QB; they’ve got 10 starters back on defense- their OL has 93 returning starts, but only one starter is a senior. Under Kingsbury, Red Raiders are 9-8-1 vs spread out of conference. Last seven years, Big X teams are 11-10 vs spread when facing an SEC opponent. This game is in Houston, so Tech will have crowd edge.
West Virginia has 12 starters back, 7 on offense; their OL has 65 returning starts, the senior QB has 16 career starts. Mountaineers covered only one of last nine neutral field games. Tennessee has a new coach, their 5th coach in 11 years. Since 2012, Vols are 12-15 vs spread out of conference. Tennessee’s OL has 51 returning starts; their grad transfer QB had 13 career starts at Stanford. Last seven years, Big X teams are 11-10 vs spread when facing an SEC opponent. This game is in Charlotte, NC, so crowd support should be fairly even.
North Carolina QB Surratt is suspended here for selling his sneakers; some of UNC’s offensive line are also out. Cal (+12) won 35-30 in Chapel Hill last season, throwing for 363 yards. Tar Heels have 13 starters back, 8 on defense; their OL has only 19 returning starts- since 2015, UNC is 10-4 vs spread on road. California covered nine of its last 12 home games; they’ve got 18 starters back, 10 on offense. Bears’ junior QB has 12 starts; their OL has 76 returning starts. Last four years, ACC teams are 8-3 vs spread when facing a Pac-12 team.
Home side won last four Michigan-Notre Dame games; teams last met in 2014. Irish won 31-0 in last meeting here. Wolverines are 6-8 vs spread on road under Harbaugh; their new QB is Ole Miss transfer Patterson, who started 10 games at Ole Miss. Michigan has 17 returning starters, 9 on defense; their OL has 54 returning starts. Notre Dame has 15 returning starters, 9 on defense; their OL has 65 returning starters, their QB has 12. Since 2011, Irish are 14-11 vs spread at home- they covered their last three games as a home underdog.
Alabama hasn’t announced their starting QB yet; obviously both are good. Crimson Tide covered four of its last five season openers. Alabama has 103 returning starts on its OL, but has only three returning starters on defense- they’ve got injury problems at linebacker. Louisville is 6-4 vs spread in its last ten games as an underdog; Cardinals have a new QB- their OL has 79 returning starts, their defense has only four returning starters. Last three years, ACC teams are 20-14-1 vs spread when playing SEC opponents. This game is in Orlando.
Miami has 14 starters back, 7 on both sides of ball; Hurricanes’ OL has 55 returning starts, their QB has 14 starts. Miami covered only one of its last seven games on a neutral field. LSU has five starters back on both sides of ball; their OL has only 35 returning starts. Tigers will also have a new QB. Since 2012, LSU is 11-17 vs spread outside the SEC. Last three years, ACC teams are 20-14-1 vs spread when playing SEC opponents. This game is in Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX. These teams haven’t met since 2005.
Virginia Tech-Florida St split their last four meetings; they haven’t met since 2012. Tech has 12 starters back, 7 on offense; their OL has 51 returning starts. Hokies’ sophomore QB has 13 starts. Since 2013, Tech covered six of last eight games as road underdogs. First game at Florida State for Taggart, who is coaching his third different school in three years. Seminoles have 12 starters back, but only four on defense; their OL has 90 career starts. Looks like Francois returns at QB after missing almost all of LY with an injury. Since 2014, FSU is 10-14 as a home favorite.
Central Florida went 13-0 LY, after going 0-12 in 2015; now they’ve got a new coach, with Frost off to Nebraska. UCF won 49-24, 24-16 in its last two games with UConn; Knights have QB with 23 career starts- their offensive line has 85 career starts, which is good. UCF covered seven of its last ten road games; they’re 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a favorite. UConn is 17-44 the last five years; since 2014, they’re 5-10 as home underdogs. Huskies have a senior QB with 4 career starts; their OL has 63 career starts.
Northwestern won its last four games with Purdue, winning 45-17/38-14 in last two visits here. Both teams have 100+ starts returning on OL; Wildcats have a senior QB with 39 career starts. Northwestern is 7-6 vs spread in its last 14 road games; they’ve got seven starters back on both sides of the ball. Purdue has nine starters back on offense, only four on defense; they covered seven of last eight tries as home favorites. Boilers lost three of last four season openers that were against I-A opponents. Purdue has two QB’s with experience; which one will start?
New Mexico State got whacked 29-7 at home by Wyoming Saturday; Aggies were outgained 449-135, had 51 penalty yards and minus-9 rushing yards- not good. Since 2015, State is 9-8 vs spread as road underdogs- they’ve got 17 starters back, 9 on defense, a new QB and an OL with 103 starts. Minnesota has 7 starters back on both sides of ball; they’ve got a new QB. Since 2015, Gophers are 4-11 vs spread as a home favorite.
Wake Forest QB Hinton (2 starts LY) is suspended for this game. Deacons (-17) nipped Tulane 7-3 at home in the 2016 season opener. Wake has 14 starters back (8 on offense, 4 on OL- 132 returning starts!!!); they are 1-3 as road favorites the last eight years (0-2 under Clawson)- they covered eight of last 10 non-ACC games. Tulane has 14 starters back, 9 on offense (91 starts on OL); Green Wave is 3-2 as home underdogs under Fritz. Tulane has a senior QB with 11 career starts. Last two years, ACC teams are 8-4 vs spread when facing an AAC opponent.
Friday/Saturday’s best 13 games
Colorado won its last three games with Colorado State 17-3/44-7/27-24; Buffaloes are 12-8 as favorites under MacIntyre, but were just 1-4 LY. Buffs’ QB Montez has 15 career starts; they’ve got only 10 starters back, four on offense. Colorado State (last week’s info). Under Bobo, Rams are 6-8 vs spread out of conference; they covered nine of last 12 games as an underdog. Last three year, Pac-12 teams are 18-15-1 vs spread when facing a Mountain West foe.
Northern Illinois (+3) upset Iowa 30-27 in last meeting five years ago; Huskies covered four of last five games vs Big 14 opponents. NIU has 14 starters back, 8 on offense- their OL has 111 starters back. Huskies are 10-3 vs spread as home underdogs under Carey; their QB is a sop with only 7 career starts. Iowa is 12-22-1 vs spread in its last 35 home games; they’ve got 13 starters back, 7 on offense. Hawkeyes’ QB is a junior with 13 starts. Last three years, MAC teams are 19-10-1 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.
Maryland (+17) went to Austin LY and shocked Texas 51-41, running ball for 263 yards, but Terps had a terrible off-season, with a player dying in conditioning workouts. Hard to tell what effect that will have, but it won’t be good. Maryland is 5-7 vs spread at home with Durkin; their OL has 105 returning starts, but their QB has almost no experience. Texas covered four of five on road in Herman’s first year; Longhorns have two experienced QB’s- their OL has 102 starts. Last four years, Big X teams are 6-5-1 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.
Vanderbilt won its last three games with Middle Tennessee, winning 47-24 (-3) in last meeting here in ‘16. Commodores have 12 starters back, 7 on offense- their senior QB Shurmur (30 starts) is son of the NJ Giants’ coach. Vandy is 13-14 vs spread at home under Mason, 4-8 when a home favorite. MTSU has 17 starters back, 9 on defense; senior QB Stockstill (32 starts) is the coach’s son. Blue Raiders are 6-10-1 in last 17 games as road underdogs. Last three years, SEC teams are 13-6-1 vs spread against Conference USA opponents.
Arizona (-1.5) beat BYU 18-16 in last meeting two years ago, on a neutral field. Arizona debut for Kevin Sumlin, who was 13-19-1 as home favorite in his last job (Tex A&M). Since 2012, Wildcats are 11-13-1 as home favorites; they’ve got 16 starters back, 9 on defense- their mobile junior QB Tate has 9 starts. Arizona’s OL has 66 returning starts. BYU has senior QB with 21 starts; their OL has only 39 returning starts. Cougars have 14 starters back, 7 on both sides of ball; they’re 7-3 as road underdogs under Sitake.
Long trip into SEC country (Atlanta) for Washington squad that has senior QB with 39 career starts, an OL with 97 career starts. Under Petersen, U-Dub is 17-14 vs spread away from home. Huskies have 17 starters back, 9 on defense. Since 2014, Auburn is just 5-14-1 vs spread in out of conference games; Tigers have junior QB with 17 starts- their OL has only 40 returning starts. Auburn has 13 returning starters, 7 on defense. Last seven years, SEC teams are 8-3 vs Pac-12 opponents, but Pac-12 teams won both matchups LY.
Ole Miss-Tex Tech haven’t met since 2009; last two years, Rebels were 2-6 vs spread outside the SEC. Ole Miss has 15 starters back, 8 on offense- their OL has 102 returning starts. Rebels’ QB is a senior with only 5 career starts. Tech has a new QB; they’ve got 10 starters back on defense- their OL has 93 returning starts, but only one starter is a senior. Under Kingsbury, Red Raiders are 9-8-1 vs spread out of conference. Last seven years, Big X teams are 11-10 vs spread when facing an SEC opponent. This game is in Houston, so Tech will have crowd edge.
West Virginia has 12 starters back, 7 on offense; their OL has 65 returning starts, the senior QB has 16 career starts. Mountaineers covered only one of last nine neutral field games. Tennessee has a new coach, their 5th coach in 11 years. Since 2012, Vols are 12-15 vs spread out of conference. Tennessee’s OL has 51 returning starts; their grad transfer QB had 13 career starts at Stanford. Last seven years, Big X teams are 11-10 vs spread when facing an SEC opponent. This game is in Charlotte, NC, so crowd support should be fairly even.
North Carolina QB Surratt is suspended here for selling his sneakers; some of UNC’s offensive line are also out. Cal (+12) won 35-30 in Chapel Hill last season, throwing for 363 yards. Tar Heels have 13 starters back, 8 on defense; their OL has only 19 returning starts- since 2015, UNC is 10-4 vs spread on road. California covered nine of its last 12 home games; they’ve got 18 starters back, 10 on offense. Bears’ junior QB has 12 starts; their OL has 76 returning starts. Last four years, ACC teams are 8-3 vs spread when facing a Pac-12 team.
Home side won last four Michigan-Notre Dame games; teams last met in 2014. Irish won 31-0 in last meeting here. Wolverines are 6-8 vs spread on road under Harbaugh; their new QB is Ole Miss transfer Patterson, who started 10 games at Ole Miss. Michigan has 17 returning starters, 9 on defense; their OL has 54 returning starts. Notre Dame has 15 returning starters, 9 on defense; their OL has 65 returning starters, their QB has 12. Since 2011, Irish are 14-11 vs spread at home- they covered their last three games as a home underdog.
Alabama hasn’t announced their starting QB yet; obviously both are good. Crimson Tide covered four of its last five season openers. Alabama has 103 returning starts on its OL, but has only three returning starters on defense- they’ve got injury problems at linebacker. Louisville is 6-4 vs spread in its last ten games as an underdog; Cardinals have a new QB- their OL has 79 returning starts, their defense has only four returning starters. Last three years, ACC teams are 20-14-1 vs spread when playing SEC opponents. This game is in Orlando.
Miami has 14 starters back, 7 on both sides of ball; Hurricanes’ OL has 55 returning starts, their QB has 14 starts. Miami covered only one of its last seven games on a neutral field. LSU has five starters back on both sides of ball; their OL has only 35 returning starts. Tigers will also have a new QB. Since 2012, LSU is 11-17 vs spread outside the SEC. Last three years, ACC teams are 20-14-1 vs spread when playing SEC opponents. This game is in Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX. These teams haven’t met since 2005.
Virginia Tech-Florida St split their last four meetings; they haven’t met since 2012. Tech has 12 starters back, 7 on offense; their OL has 51 returning starts. Hokies’ sophomore QB has 13 starts. Since 2013, Tech covered six of last eight games as road underdogs. First game at Florida State for Taggart, who is coaching his third different school in three years. Seminoles have 12 starters back, but only four on defense; their OL has 90 career starts. Looks like Francois returns at QB after missing almost all of LY with an injury. Since 2014, FSU is 10-14 as a home favorite.
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