NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 ( Thur., Dec. 14 - Mon., Dec. 18 )

[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, December 14

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Falcons at Buccaneers
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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5, 49)

The Atlanta Falcons are in control of their playoff destiny and their chances to repeat as NFC South champions, but they also have a pack of teams nipping at their heels for the final postseason spot in the conference. A winner of four of its last five, Atlanta visits the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night in a rematch from three weeks ago.

The Falcons are one game behind NFC South co-leaders New Orleans and Carolina but still have to play the Saints and Panthers, giving them a chance to claim the division title by winning their final three games. “Focusing on the next team could be a little bit distracting,” Falcons linebacker De’Vondre Campbell said. “We have to focus on (Tampa Bay) because every game at this point is a must-win.” Atlanta, which currently holds the tiebreaker over Seattle for the No. 6 seed in the NFC, beat visiting Tampa Bay 34-20 on Nov. 26, but the Buccaneers were without quarterback Jameis Winston, who will be making his third start since returning from injury. Winston rallied Tampa Bay from a 14-point deficit last week before Tampa Bay lost to Detroit 24-21 in the final minute -- its third straight defeat and eighth in 10 games.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Falcons (-2) - Buccaneers (5) + home field (-3) = Falcons -4.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as six-point road chalk and as of Sunday evening that number was up slightly to 6.5. The total hit the betting board at 47.5 and had been bet up as high as 49.5 before dropping to the current number of 48.

WEATHER REPORT: during the game it will drop from 71 to 67 degrees and will be mostly cloudy with 4-5 mph winds throughout - no chance of precipitation

INJURY REPORT:

Falcons - WR Mohamed Sanu (Probable, Knee), DE Adrian Clayborn (Questionable, Hamstring), G Wes Schweitzer (Questionable, Groin), G Andy Levitre (Questionable, Tricep), LB Sean Weatherspoon (Questionable, Illness), TE Eric Saubert (Questionable, Back), RB Tevin Coleman (Out, Concussion), S Quincy Mauger (I-R, Knee).

Buccaneers - S TJ Ward (Probable, Concussion), G J.R. Sweezy (Questionable, Shin), TE Cameron Brate (Questionable, Hip), OT Donovan Smith (Questionable, Shoulder), DT Clinton McDonald (Questionable, Back), CB Josh Robinson (Questionable, Hamstring), C Joe Hawley (Questionable, Illness), CB Vernon Hargreaves (Out, Hamstring), DT Gerald McCoy (Out, Bicep), LB Lavonte David (Out, Hamstring).

ABOUT THE FALCONS (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS, 5-8 O/U): Despite surpassing 1,000 yards for the fourth consecutive year, Julio Jones was having a relatively quiet season by his lofty standards until torching Tampa Bay for 12 catches for 253 yards and a pair of touchdowns -- his second and third scores of the campaign. Jones also had eight catches for 101 yards and a score at Tampa Bay in November 2016 as quarterback Matt Ryan riddled the Buccaneers for 344 yards and four touchdowns passes. Devonta Freeman has rushed for 165 yards in two games since returning from a concussion and could be in line for a heavy workload with backup Tevin Coleman in the concussion protocol. Adrian Clayborn (hamstring), who leads the team in sacks, did not practice Thursday, but coach Dan Quinn is moving Vic Beasley back into a pure pass-rushing role.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (4-9 SU, 3-9-1 ATS, 7-6 O/U): Winston, who threw two fourth-quarter touchdowns last week to erase a 14-point deficit, enjoyed plenty of success last season against Atlanta, throwing for 542 yards with seven scores against one interception. Wideout Mike Evans has been practically invisible the past two games with a combined four catches, but he had eight receptions in last month's loss to the Falcons and lit them up for 16 catches for 249 yards and three touchdowns in both meetings last season. With Doug Martin continuing to struggle, Peyton Barber has provided a jolt to the ground game with 160 yards rushing over the past two contests. Tackle Gerald McCoy and linebacker Lavonte David missed practice, putting more pressure on a defense that surrenders a league-worst 276.1 yards passing.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.

* Buccaneers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.

* Over is 10-0-1 in Falcons last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.

* Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road chalk Falcons at a rate of 71 percent and the Over is getting 56 percent of the totals action.


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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Playoff chases front and center in Week 16
Patrick Everson

“Dallas will be a short favorite in this one when we open. Both teams are trying to hang around for a playoff spot, but neither are impressing too greatly.”

Week 16 of the NFL regular season has some key games on tap, but because of how Week 15 is playing out, many sportsbooks aren’t yet posting lines on those matchups. However, thanks to Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu, Everson still gets you a little insight on a quartet of contests with playoff implications.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (no line)

New Orleans lost its first two games of the season, but has only lost twice since then to stand tied with Carolina atop the NFC South. The Saints (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) were massive 16.5-point home favorites against the New York Jets on Sunday and were never covering that number, but got a 31-19 victory.

Defending NFC champion Atlanta still has Week 15 work to do before Bookmaker.eu can set the line on Falcons-Saints. Atlanta (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS), which travels to Tampa Bay for the Monday nighter, just hosted the Saints a week ago, notching a 20-17 home win as a 2.5-point chalk.

“If there are no major injuries Monday evening, and the Falcons win, we’ll look to make the Saints around 4-point chalk for this big divisional matchup,” Cooley said. “The public will continue to play New Orleans, and we know every Joe Bettor and his dog will be on the over.”

Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans (+7)

Los Angeles is looking very much like the real postseason deal heading into the final two weeks of the regular season. The Rams (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) steamrolled Seattle 42-7 as a 1-point road fave in Week 15 and now have complete control of the NFC West.

Tennessee would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but needs better results than it got in Week 15 to stay in that position. The Titans (8-6 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) lost to San Francisco 25-23 on a last-second field goal, though they cashed as a 2.5-point road pup.

“Marcus Mariota just isn’t playing at the same level he was before the injury earlier this season,” Cooley said. “He’s gutting it out weekly, but he’s a shell of his former shelf, which has caused a drastic downgrade for Tennessee in our ratings. Early action has come on the Titans, dropping the spread a half-point.”

That move put the line at Rams -6.5.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (no line)

Green Bay got Aaron Rodgers back for Week 15, and while he led a valiant late rally at Carolina, he also threw three interceptions. That doomed the Packers (7-7 SU and ATS) to a 31-24 loss catching 3 points on the road, and likely ended their playoff hopes.

Meanwhile, Minnesota had no problem dispatching Cincinnati on Sunday. The Vikings (11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS) led 24-0 at halftime and cruised to 34-7 home win laying 12.5 points.

This is another line that Bookmaker.eu has put on hold.

“We really have to wait and see what the Packers decide to do with Rodgers,” Cooley said, pointing to the fact that if Atlanta beats Tampa on Monday night, Green Bay is eliminated from playoff contention. “The Packers might be home underdogs to this great Vikings squad either way, but are certainly a healthy ‘dog if Brett Hundley is back under center. If the Falcons win Monday, we don’t expect to see Rodgers the rest of the year.”

This NFC North clash is in prime time on Saturday, with an 8:30 p.m. ET kickoff.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (no line)

Dallas is clinging to postseason life, but might get a little defibrillation this week, with star running back Ezekiel Elliott returning from his six-game suspension. The Cowboys (8-6 SU and ATS) went off as a 3-point chalk at Oakland on Sunday night and pushed with a 20-17 victory, sealed when Raiders QB Derek Carr fumbled inside the 2-yard line in the final minute.

Seattle is also on the outside looking in for the moment, thanks to that aforementioned beatdown suffered at the hands of the Rams. The Seahawks (8-6 SU, 5-8-1 ATS) could still reach the playoffs, but may need some help getting there after that dismal 42-7 loss to L.A. as a 1-point home ‘dog.

With the Cowboys playing Sunday night, Bookmaker.eu will wait to post this number until Monday.

“Dallas will be a short favorite in this one when we open. Both teams are trying to hang around for a playoff spot, but neither are impressing too greatly,” Cooley said. “The Seahawks were badly exposed Sunday, but we will certainly expect their best effort here. We’ll need some sharp action on the underdog to offset the square money that will come on the Cowboys.”