Announcement

**Udog** · 12-12-2017, 11:08 AM

published 12/11

NFL opening line report: Patriots at Steelers highlights Week 15
Patrick Everson

'We’ll look to open the Patriots as 2- or 3-point favorites. They are simply the most dominant club in the league, and the next team isn’t that close."

As the NFL season hits Week 15, the playoff push is reaching full throttle. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines for a quartet of key contests, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (no line)

New England is very much rounding into the form of a defending Super Bowl champion, though it still has some Week 14 work to do, playing in the Monday nighter at Miami. The Patriots (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) are on an eight-game winning streak, cashing for bettors in seven of those contests. In Week 13, the Pats stumped Buffalo 23-3 as a 7.5-point road favorite.

Pittsburgh barely kept alive its winning streak in the Week 14 Sunday nighter. The Steelers (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) snagged their eighth consecutive victory (4-4 ATS), edging Baltimore 39-38 on a last-minute field goal while failing to cash as a 6-point home chalk.

With Pittsburgh playing late Sunday and New England yet to play, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on posting this line.

“As long as nothing out of the ordinary happens in the final two games of the week, we’ll look to open the Patriots as 2- or 3-point favorites,” Cooley said. “They are simply the most dominant club in the league, and the next team isn’t that close. This game will command a huge handle, and hopefully we’ll get a great game.”

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1)

Kansas City finally got out of its rut, halting a four-game losing streak and a 1-6 SU and ATS slide overall. The Chiefs (7-6 SU and ATS) dropped Oakland 26-15 on Sunday as a 4.5-point home fave.

Thanks to K.C.’s slide, Los Angeles (7-6 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) has surged into contention in the AFC West. The Chargers rolled Washington 30-13 laying 6 points at home Sunday.

“The Chiefs finally flexed their muscles this week, but wow, the Chargers have certainly impressed,” Cooley said. “And really that’s been the case all season. We have L.A. ranked higher in our ratings at this point, which is probably surprising to some. Early smart money is on the Chargers.”

That took the opening line of Chiefs -1 down to pick ‘em at Bookmaker.eu. Both teams will go on slightly shorter rest, as this is a Saturday night game.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+1.5)

Los Angeles had a great opportunity to take a two-game lead in the NFC West, but couldn’t find a way to handle Philadelphia, even after knocking QB Carson Wentz out of the game. The Rams (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) rebounded from a 21-7 first-half deficit and took a 35-31 lead early in the fourth quarter, but ultimately fell short 43-35 laying 1 point at home.

The reason L.A. could have taken a two-game lead: Seattle lost at Jacksonville 30-24 as a 3-point pup Sunday. The Seahawks beat the Rams 16-10 as a 2-point road ‘dog on Oct. 8, so a win this week would create a tie at the top of the division, with Seattle owning the tiebreaker on head-to-head.

“Early sharp money suggests this should have opened closer to a pick,” Cooley said, noting the line indeed moved down to pick ‘em on Seattle money. “I could certainly see this game going either way. Seattle got the best of the Rams earlier this season, but that Los Angeles squad has made leaps-and-bounds improvement since then.”

Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (no line)

Carolina moved back into a tie atop the NFC South, taking advantage of New Orleans’ Thursday night loss at Atlanta. The Panthers (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) slowed down red-hot Minnesota, claiming a 31-24 home victory getting 2.5 points Sunday.

Green Bay nearly gave up Cleveland’s first win of the year, pulling out a 27-21 overtime victory giving 2.5 points on the road. Now, there’s the expectation that star quarterback Aaron Rodgers returns for the Week 15 clash with Carolina. But since that’s not yet certain, Bookmaker.eu isn’t posting a number.

“We’re expecting Rodgers to be back in action, but you never know. So we’ll wait to get confirmation before putting up a line,” Cooley said. “Rodgers is worth so much to the line, we can’t risk hanging a bad number. If he does suit up, we’re probably looking at Carolina being a small favorite, possibly down to even a pick ‘em.”

**Udog** · 12-12-2017, 11:17 AM

Sharps are advising that these Week 15 NFL lines are going to move
Art Aronson

No one thought the meeting between the Chargers and Chiefs in Week 15 would turn out to be the most important game in the AFC West this season.

Game to bet now

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City (-1)

When the Chargers and Chiefs met nearly three months ago it was Kansas City’s third win in what would be a five-game win streak, and Los Angeles’ third consecutive loss in what would be a season-opening four-game losing streak - the two teams then headed in opposite directions. No one thought their meeting in mid-December would turn out to be the most important in the AFC West this season.

Both teams are now 7-6, both have winnable games in Weeks 16 and 17, and the second-place team in the division will likely not get a wild-card playoff spot – so this game is basically "it" in the division.

The line hasn’t budged since opening at -1 on Sunday night, but bettors should be aware that the Chargers should have a little extra motivation due to their earlier loss to the Chiefs. If the Chargers fall a game back with two to go, and KC has the first tie-breaker due to beating LA twice, it’s basically over for the Chargers.

Game to wait on

New England at Pittsburgh (+2.5)

It’s likely that the Patriots were 35,000 feet someplace over Georgia when they forgot about Monday night’s unexpected loss to Miami. In the grand scheme of things, win or lose the Pats still would have to beat the Steelers this coming Sunday to maintain home-field advantage in the playoffs, so it’s not likely they would empty the playbook in Miami. Then there is the matter of TE Rob Gronkowski who, due to suspension, will have had two weeks to rest before going at the Steelers.

Books apparently didn’t pay the Miami game too much heed, since the line didn’t move an inch after New England turned in perhaps its worst game since Tom Brady was serving the final game of his four-week suspension in Week 4 last season. Early money did fatten the line from Pittsburgh +1 to the current +2.5, so bettors might want to see if public money stays on the Steelers, perhaps nudging the number down a bit.

Total to watch

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (47.5)

LA has been one of the top-scoring teams in the league on the road this season, averaging more than 32 points away from home. And that number balloons to more than 37 if a Week 11 seven-point hiccup is eliminated from the mix. Much of the credit goes to RB Todd Gurley, who has been both healthy and productive.

Gurley figures to get the ball early and often against a Seahawks defense that is only a shadow of the unit that it was over the last half-decade. Seattle gave up 30 points in a ugly loss to Jacksonville on Sunday and needs to step up big-time at home against the Rams. The 47.5 is the highest posted total for a Seahawks home game this season and the highest overall since the 49.5 on opening day at Green Bay.

**Udog** · 12-12-2017, 11:21 AM

NFL's Top ATS Teams:

1. Eagles 10-3
2. Vikes 9-4
t3. Panthers 8-5
t3. Jags 8-5
t3. Rams 8-5
t3. Pats 8-5
t3. Saints 8-5

NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

32. Browns 3-10
t31. Bucs 3-9-1
t31. Broncos 3-9-1
t29. Raiders 4-8-1
t29. Cards 4-8-1

**Udog** · 12-12-2017, 11:24 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

Thursday, December 14

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DENVER (4 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 10) - 12/14/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games this season.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road lined games this season.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points this season.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 59-83 ATS (-32.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 16

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CHICAGO (4 - 9) at DETROIT (7 - 6) - 12/16/2017, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DETROIT is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 60-84 ATS (-32.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 133-173 ATS (-57.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (7 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 6) - 12/16/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 118-89 ATS (+20.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 118-89 ATS (+20.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 95-68 ATS (+20.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 5-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 17

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PHILADELPHIA (11 - 2) at NY GIANTS (2 - 11) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (7 - 6) at CAROLINA (9 - 4) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (5 - 8) at MINNESOTA (10 - 3) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in dome games this season.
MINNESOTA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (5 - 7) at BUFFALO (7 - 6) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (4 - 9) at JACKSONVILLE (9 - 4) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (5 - 8) at NEW ORLEANS (9 - 4) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (6 - 7) at WASHINGTON (5 - 8) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
WASHINGTON is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 60-94 ATS (-43.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 85-116 ATS (-42.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 85-116 ATS (-42.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 63-88 ATS (-33.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 85-116 ATS (-42.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 23-46 ATS (-27.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (7 - 6) at CLEVELAND (0 - 13) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA RAMS (9 - 4) at SEATTLE (8 - 5) - 12/17/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 183-229 ATS (-68.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 183-229 ATS (-68.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 83-118 ATS (-46.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 131-181 ATS (-68.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 142-181 ATS (-57.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 67-97 ATS (-39.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SEATTLE is 67-38 ATS (+25.2 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (10 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (11 - 2) - 12/17/2017, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (8 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 10) - 12/17/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (7 - 6) at OAKLAND (6 - 7) - 12/17/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 50-81 ATS (-39.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 60-84 ATS (-32.4 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 33-60 ATS (-33.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 32-57 ATS (-30.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, December18

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ATLANTA (8 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 9) - 12/18/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
TAMPA BAY is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-12-2017, 11:27 AM

NFL

Week 15

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 14

DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Denver's last 12 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

Saturday, December 16

CHICAGO @ DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games at home

LA CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games
LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games

Sunday, December 17

CINCINNATI @ MINNESOTA
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Minnesota is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games

NY JETS @ NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Jets's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

MIAMI @ BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Buffalo's last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Miami

GREEN BAY @ CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Green Bay's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND
Baltimore is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games

HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

ARIZONA @ WASHINGTON
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Washington is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Arizona

LA RAMS @ SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Seattle is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against LA Rams

TENNESSEE @ SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Tennessee

NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

DALLAS @ OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games at home

Monday, December 18

ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing Atlanta

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**Udog** · 12-12-2017, 11:31 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Thursday's game
Broncos (4-9) @ Colts (3-10)— Denver snapped its 8-game skid with shutout of Jets; Broncos are a road favorite despite being 0-6 on road (0-6 vs spread, 0-3 as road dog), losing away from home by 10-21-10-28-7-26 points. Denver has only 13 offensive TD’s in its last 10 games. Colts lost last four games (three by 4 or less points), are 0-3 vs spread in last three; they’re 2-4 at home, with both wins by a FG. Indy is 3-2 as a home underdog. Home side won four of last five series games; Broncos lost their last six visits here- their last win in Indy was in ’03. AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 2-5-1 vs spread this year; AFC South underdogs are 7-5-1, 3-1 at home. Under is 3-1 in last four Denver games, 5-0 in Colts’ last five games.

Saturday's games
Bears (4-9) @ Lions (7-6)— Chicago snapped 5-game skid with 33-7 win in Cincy LW; Bears are 2-4 on road, 3-3 as a road underdog. Chicago had four offensive TD’s LW, after having only one in its last two games combined. Lions lost four of last five home games; they ran ball for only 62.3 ypg in their last four games. Detroit had five takeaways in Tampa LW, after having one takeaway in previous three games. Detroit (-3) beat the Bears 27-24 at home four weeks ago, despite Chicago running ball for 222 yards. Lions won eight of last nine series games; their 17-14 loss here LY was their first in last four visits to the Windy City. Dogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this season. Under is 8-5 in Chicago games, 1-5 in last six Detroit games.

Chargers (7-6) @ Chiefs (7-6)— Teams are tied for first in AFC West. Chiefs (-3) beat Chargers 24-10 back in Week 3 for their 7th straight series win, running ball for 189 yards with a +3 turnover ratio. Bolts lost last three visits to Arrowhead, by 12-7-6 points. Chargers won four in a row, are 7-2 since their 0-4 start- they’ve allowed only 29 points in their last three games. Bolts are 3-3 on road, 4-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 3-8-3 points. Chiefs lost six of their last eight games; they’re 4-2 at home, 4-2 as home favorites. Home teams are 5-2-1 vs spread in AFC West games this season. Four of Chiefs’ last five games stayed under total, as did seven of last eight Charger games. Under for Chargers’ opponents is 8-1 in their last nine games.

Sunday's games
Eagles (11-2) @ Giants (2-11)— Nick Foles is 20-16 as an NFL starter, 15-9 with Philly; he has the reins to Eagle offense with Wentz out for year. Philly won 10 of last 11 games; they’re 5-2 on road, 3-1 as a road favorite. Giants lost last three games by 10-7-20 points, scoring three TD’s on last 36 drives- they’re 16 for last 57 on 3rd down conversions. Eagles (-6) beat Giants 27-24 at home back in Week 3; Philly ran ball for 193 yards, in game where both teams had 100+ penalty yards. Giants lost despite 14-yard edge in field position. Philly won six of last seven series games; they’re 8-2 in last ten visits here. Favorites are 6-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Three of last four Eagle games, and last four Giant games stayed under total.

Packers (7-6) @ Panthers (9-4)— Aaron Rodgers has been cleared to play in this game. Green Bay won its last two games with TD’s in OT; Packers are 3-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 11-13-3 points on foreign soil. Carolina won five of last six games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-3 vs spread as home favorites- they ran ball for 200+ yards in three of last five games. Panthers are 11-39 on 3rd down in last three games, after going 11-14 vs Miami in Week 10- they’ve turned ball over only twice in last four games (+4). Teams split last six series games overall, split last eight played here. Average total in last four series games, 60.0. NFC South home favorites are 5-9 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 7-6. Five of last six Green Bay games went over total, as did last four Carolina games.

Bengals (5-8) @ Vikings (10-3)— Cincinnati lost four of last six games; they got crushed at home by the Bears LW, giving up 232 rushing yards. Cincy is 2-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, with road losses by 3-15-16-4 points. Minnesota had its 8-game win streak snapped LW; Vikings are 5-1 at home, 3-1 as home favorites, with wins by 10-17-13-8-17 points at home. Teams split their 12 all-time meetings; home team won 11 of those 12 games. Bengals are 0-5 in their visits to the Twin Cities. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 5-5-1 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 6-3. Over is 3-1-1 in last five Bengal games, 5-2 in last seven Minnesota games. Viking coach Zimmer was DC for Bengals before coming to Minnesota.

Dolphins (6-7) @ Bills (7-6)— Last two times Miami beat the Patriots and then played the next week, they lost both games, 19-0/29-10, both times in Buffalo. Short week for warm-weather Dolphins coming north to visit western NY after upsetting Pats Monday night, which snapped Miami’s 4-game losing streak. Dolphins are 2-4 on road; they were outscored 120-38 in last three road games. Buffalo is 6-1 when it allows 17 or less points, 1-5 when they allow more; Bills are 5-2 at home, 3-0-1 as home favorites, with home wins by 9-10-3-20-6 points. Miami swept Bills LY, winning both games by FG, after losing five of previous six series games. Dolphins lost four of last five visits to western NY. Home teams are 6-1-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Last six Miami games went over total; last three Buffalo games stayed under.

Texans (4-9) @ Jaguars (9-4)— Jaguars won six of last seven games, are 5-2 at home, 3-2 as home favorites- they lost to Titans/Rams at home. Jax has 12 takeaways in its last four games (+7); in their last nine games, they outscored opponents 128-61 in second half. Jacksonville (+5.5) had four takeaways (+4), upset Texans 29-7 in season opener; it was only Jags’ third win in last 14 series games. Houston won five of its last six visits here. Texans are 1-6 in their last seven games, losing last three in row, by 7-11-10 points; they lost their last three road games, by 26-7-11 points. Favorites are 5-3 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this year. Four of last six Houston games stayed under total, as have five of last seven Jaguar games.

Jets (5-8) @ Saints (9-4)— Jets lost six of last eight games, are screwed with QB McCown out for season; new QB Petty is 1-3 as an NFL starter, his backup Hackenberg has yet to play in the NFL. Jets are 1-5 on road, 1-2-1 as road underdogs, with road losses by 9-25-3-5-23 points- their road win was in Cleveland. New Orleans lost two of last three games; they have rematch with rival Falcons next week. Saints won last five home games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year, winning games in Superdome by 14-8-20-3-10 points, with loss to Patriots. Saints won five of last seven series games; Jets are 3-2 in five visits to Bourbon Street. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 5-9.

Cardinals (6-7) @ Redskins (5-8)— Washington lost six of last eight games; they’re 3-3 at home, 1-1 as home favorites. Redskins were outrushed 356-151 in last two games. Cardinals are 2-3 in true road games, 0-3 vs spread as road underdogs, with road losses by 12-27-10 points, and wins at Indy/SF. Arizona won last two series games, 30-20/31-23; Washington is 4-9 in its last 13 trips to the desert. NFC West road underdogs are 5-8 vs spread; NFC West favorites are 7-8 vs spread 5-5 at home. Over is 6-3 in last nine Redskin games, 3-1 in last four Arizona games.

Ravens (7-6) @ Browns (0-13)— Baltimore lost 39-38 thriller in Pittsburgh LW, snapping their 3-game win streak; Ravens scored 82 points in last two games, scoring 9 TD’s on their last 22 drives. Baltimore is 3-3 in true road games, 1-0 as a road favorite. Winless Cleveland is 3-10 vs spread, 2-5 at home; they lost two of last there home games in OT. In there last six games, Browns were outscored 90-37 in 2nd half. Ravens (-7.5) had five takeaways (+3), beat Cleveland 24-10 at home back in Week 2; Baltimore is 17-2 in last 19 series games, winning last three visits here, by 2-6-5 points. Favorites are 5-4 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season. Four of Browns’ last six games went over total, as have seven of last nine Raven games.

Rams (9-4) @ Seahawks (8-5)— First place in NFC West is at stake here. LA turned ball over five times (-3) in 16-10 home loss to Seattle in Week 5; teams split last eight series games, but Rams are 1-11 in last 12 visits here. LA figures to get WR Woods (shoulder) back, which helps; in their last four games. Rams are 11-43 on 3rd down, but they’ve also scored TD on defense/special teams the last two weeks. LA is 5-1 on road, 2-1 as road underdogs. Seattle split its last six games; they’re 4-2 at home, 1-4 vs spread as home favorites. Seahawks haven’t allowed a first half TD in their last three games. Home side is 0-7-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this season. Over is 5-1 in Rams’ road games, 3-6 in last nine Seattle games.

Patriots (10-3) @ Steelers (11-2)— Since 2013, New England is 12-2 vs spread coming off a loss. Winner here will own home field advantage for top seed in AFC; if game were to go to OT, Pitt could play for tie, since they lead Pats by a game. Patriots scored 34.5 ppg in winning last four series games- they beat Steelers twice LY, 27-16 here, then 36-17 at home in playoffs. Short week for Pats after loss in Miami Monday; NE is 5-1 in true road games, 4-2 as road favorites. Steelers won their last eight games; five of their last six wins are by 5 or less points. Pitt is still without LB Shazier, so their defense is vulnerable. AFC East non-divisional road favorites are 3-2 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 7-6-1, 1-2 at home. Under is 6-2 in last eight Patriot games; over is 3-0-1 in last four Steeler games.

Titans (8-5) @ 49ers (3-10)— Tennessee is game behind Jaguars in AFC South; they play J’ville in Week 17. Titans won six of last eight games, are 3-4 on road, 0-2 as a road dog. Tennessee did not score in second half in Arizona LW; they allowed total of only 41 points in last three games. 49ers won three of last four games after an 0-9 start; 49ers are 1-5 at home, they’re favored here for first time this season. Garoppolo is now 4-0 as an NFL starter. Titans/49ers split last six meetings; Tennessee won two of last three visits here. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-3 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 4-4-1. Five of last six 49er games stayed under total, as did last three Titan games. Tennessee is 7-0 when it scores 20+ points.

Cowboys (7-6) @ Raiders (6-7)— Dallas won its last two games, scoring 38-30 points; they’re 4-2 on road, 4-1 as road favorites- they scored three TD’s in 8:00 span of 4th quarter to break tie game in New Jersey LW. Cowboys were held to 7-9-6 points in last three losses; they scored 8 TD’s on 22 drives in last two games. Dallas converted 20 of last 39 plays on 3rd down. Raiders are 4-3 in last seven games; they won last three home games, are 1-0 as home underdogs. Home side won last four series games; Dallas lost 19-13 in last visit here, in 2005. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 7-8 vs spread, 2-3 on road. AFC West underdogs are 6-5, 2-1 at home. Five of last six Dallas games stayed under total, as did last four Oakland games.

Monday's game
Falcons (8-5) @ Buccaneers (4-9)— 8-5 Falcons won four of last five games, are game behind Saints/Panthers in NFC South- they play those teams the last two weeks. Atlanta is 4-2 on road, 2-1 as road favorites. Tampa Bay lost three in row, eight of last nine games; they’re 3-3 at home, 1-2 as home underdogs. Buccaneers haven’t led at halftime since Week 4. Atlanta (-10) beat Bucs 34-10 at home three weeks ago; Falcons converted 11-14 on 3rd down, averaged 10.2 yds/pass attempt. Tampa Bay won three of last four series games- teams split last six series games played here. Home side is 5-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season. Under is 8-2 in last ten Falcon games, 4-2 in Bucs’ last six games.

2017 week-by-week results
HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 5-5 3-2 4-11 1-0N
2) 6-6 2-2 6-9-1 3-2A
3) 1-4 8-2 10-5 3-0N
4) 4-7 2-3 8-7-1 2-2
5) 4-7 1-1 6-8 3-0A
6) 3-8 3-0 8-6 3-1N
7) 5-0-2 3-4 7-8 1-1
8) 5-4 0-4 7-6 3-1N
9) 5-2-1 0-3-1 5-8 2-0N
10) 4-3 3-3-1 8-6 5-0N
11) 4-4 1-5 7-7 2-2
12) 7-2-1 1-5 8-8 2-2
13) 5-4 5-2 7-9 2-0A
14) 5-4 4-3 7-8 4-2N

T) 63-60-2 36-37-2 99-106-2 31-19N

**Udog** · 12-12-2017, 11:47 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 15
Monty Andrews

Chicago's 61.54-percent touchdown success rate in the red zone ranks behind only the Eagles, Raiders, Packers and Cowboys.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5, 44)

Bears' red-zone success vs. Lions' downtrodden defense

The Detroit Lions can ill afford a letdown this weekend as they look to bolster their playoff chances against the division-rival Chicago Bears on Saturday afternoon at Ford Field. The Lions ended a two-game losing skid with a pivotal 24-21 win over the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay last weekend, and already have a three-point win in Chicago on their 2017 resume. But the Bears saw a major offensive breakout in Sunday's 33-7 win over Cincinnati, and have a major edge when it comes to red-zone performance.

The Bears hadn't done much with the football this season prior to last weekend, when they established a season high in points while racking up nearly 500 yards of total offense. And yet, Chicago has been one of the league's most prolific teams inside the opposition 20-yard line even before last week's drubbing; its 61.54-percent touchdown success rate in the red zone ranks behind only the Eagles, Raiders, Packers and Cowboys - and it's a significant step up from the 51.02-percent success rate it posted in 2016.

The Lions will need to tighten up a few areas if they aspire to make some noise in the NFC postseason picture - and among those is a deficiency when it comes to limiting opposing teams in the red zone. Detroit has surrendered six points on 63.83 percent of red-zone defensive stands; only the Browns, Packers and Dolphins have been more generous. The Lions scored enough points for that not to matter in their first go-around with the Bears - but they might not be so fortunate this time.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-11.5, 39)

Texans' terrible pass defense vs. Jaguars' sensational sack ability

Injuries have completely unravelled the Texans' season as they continue to play out the string this weekend against the playoff-hungry Jacksonville Jaguars. Houston has suffered a litany of injury losses on both sides of the ball, and reached the low point of their campaign last weekend with a 15-14 home defeat at the hands of the lowly San Francisco 49ers. In order to prevent anyone else from winding up on the sidelines, they'll need to figure out how to slow down the league's most dominant pass rush.

Last weekend was a scary one for Texans fans, and the result was only part of the issue. Quarterback Tom Savage was removed from the game after a frightening hit, only to be re-inserted a short time later; he was removed again for good immediately afterward and subsequently diagnosed with a concussion. Whoever takes snaps this weekend will need to deal with an offensive line that has already yielded 41 sacks, tied for fourth-most in the NFL. Houston's 14 interceptions against are tied for fifth-most in the league.

Regardless of who Houston starts under center, the Jaguars will be ready - and certainly able - to drag him to the turf. Jacksonville has run roughshod over opposing quarterbacks in 2017, leading the league with 47 sacks - six more than runner-up Pittsburgh - for 305 sack yards lost. Not surprisingly, all that QB pressure has led to Jacksonville snagging 19 interceptions, second only to Baltimore. Look for the Jaguars to make life absolutely miserable for Houston's beleaguered offensive line this weekend.

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-2, 44.5)

Titans' tremendous discipline vs. 49ers; penalty-flag party

The Titans have overcome inconsistency on both side of the ball to remain the AFC playoff hunt entering this weekend's showdown with the host 49ers. Tennessee is coming off a 12-7 setback to the Arizona Cardinals; it's just the second loss in the last eight games for the Titans, who feared they had lost quarterback Marcus Mariota to a knee injury but learned he should play this weekend. And while the 49ers are slight favorites, they're giving plenty away in the penalty flag department.

Tennessee hasn't been flashy this season, but it has exhibited tremendous discipline through its first 13 games. The Titans come into the week having been flagged just 75 times, the fourth-fewest accepted penalties in the league. Combined with being on the positive side of 101 accepted penalties from the opposition, and Tennessee's plus-26 penalty flag margin leads the NFL. The Titans also rank ninth in the NFL in total penalty yard margin at plus-93.

When things go bad, it can be hard to keep one's composure. And that certainly appears to be the case in San Francisco, where the 49ers have seen 104 accepted penalties go against them; only the rival Seattle Seahawks and Miami Dolphins have accrued more yellow flags. Combine that with the fact that San Francisco has drawn just 76 opposition flags, and their minus-28 differential ranks ahead of only the Seahawks; they also rank second-last in penalty yard differential (minus-202).

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6, 47.5)

Falcons' drive-extension prowess vs. Buccaneers' third-down troubles

The Atlanta Falcons' quest to return to the Super Bowl hit a major speed bump in a five-week span earlier in the season - but the defending NFC champions have returned to form at the right time as they look to rise to the top of the competitive South division with a win Monday night at Tampa. The Falcons have won four of five and are coming off a critical 20-17 win over rival New Orleans; they also come into this one with a sizeable edge when it comes to third-down situations.

The Falcons were no doubt aided by an early injury to electrifying Saints running back Alvin Kamara, but they were still facing a formidable New Orleans defense - and they did exactly what they had to do, controlling the clock (34:41 time of possession) thanks in large part to a 7-for-12 showing on third down. That's nothing new to Atlanta, which leads the NFL in third-down conversion rate at 46.4 percent and has been even more effective over the last three games, converting at a 52.8-percent clip.

That bodes poorly for a Buccaneers team that has completely unravelled on third-down defense this season after leading the NFL in that category last season. Tampa Bay is allowing opponents to score or extend drives on a whopping 48.3 percent of third-down situations, after posting a 34.4-percent mark in 2016. The Lions extended the Bucs' misery by going 5-for-11 on third down in Sunday's win, and Tampa Bay would be fortunate to hold Atlanta to a similar success rate in the Monday nighter.

**Udog** · 12-13-2017, 08:49 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 15

Thursday, December 14

Denver @ Indianapolis

Game 301-302
December 14, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
125.775
Indianapolis
127.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 2 1/2
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+2 1/2); Under

Saturday, December 16

Chicago @ Detroit

Game 303-304
December 16, 2017 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
128.523
Detroit
131.643
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 3
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 7
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+7); Over

LA Chargers @ Kansas City

Game 305-306
December 16, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
134.332
Kansas City
137.864
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 3 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 1
46
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-1); Over

Sunday, December 17

Philadelphia @ NY Giants

Game 307-308
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
139.756
NY Giants
129.295
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 10 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 7 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-7 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ Carolina

Game 309-310
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
129.873
Carolina
138.315
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 8 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 5 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-5 1/2); Under

Cincinnati @ Minnesota

Game 311-312
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
124.337
Minnesota
138.796
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 14 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 10
41
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-10); Over

Miami @ Buffalo

Game 313-314
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
129.873
Buffalo
128.521
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1 1/2
30
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
N/A

Houston @ Jacksonville

Game 315-316
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
128.784
Jacksonville
135.698
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 7
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 13
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+13); Over

NY Jets @ New Orleans

Game 317-318
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
128.458
New Orleans
149.612
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 21
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 15
47
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-15); Over

Arizona @ Washington

Game 319-320
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
126.339
Washington
133.943
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 4
44
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-4); Under

Baltimore @ Cleveland

Game 321-322
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
132.506
Cleveland
128.443
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 4
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 9
40
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+9); Over

LA Rams @ Seattle

Game 323-324
December 17, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
135.667
Seattle
139.209
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 3 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 1 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+1 1/2); Under

New England @ Pittsburgh

Game 325-326
December 17, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
135.455
Pittsburgh
136.885
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3
53
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+3); Over

Tennessee @ San Francisco

Game 327-328
December 17, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
132.203
San Francisco
130.144
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+2); Under

Dallas @ Oakland

Game 329-330
December 17, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
128.445
Oakland
130.895
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 2 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
Pick
46
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
Under

Monday, December 18

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Game 331-332
December 18, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
139.335
Tampa Bay
129.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 10
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 5
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-5); Over

**Udog** · 12-14-2017, 10:50 AM

NFL

Thursday, December 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football: Broncos at Colts
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5, 40.5)

The Indianapolis Colts still may be thawing out after competing in blizzard-like conditions last week while the Denver Broncos ended an ice-cold stretch of eight straight losses with a shutout in their last contest. Two teams with little on the line find themselves playing on a short week at Lucas Oil Stadium on Thursday.

"It's a challenge. Guys like playing football. Guys like playing on prime time. Our guys are excited about having an opportunity to play on Thursday," said Colts coach Chuck Pagano, who watched his team sustain its fourth straight loss with a 13-7 overtime setback in snowy Buffalo. Indianapolis ranks 30th in the NFL in scoring at 16.3 points per game and faces a stingy Denver defense that is yielding a league-best 280.5 yards per game and second-best 191.1 yards through the air. The Broncos improved upon those numbers in emphatic fashion last Sunday, limiting the New York Jets to just 100 yards of offense (59 rushing, 41 passing) in a 23-0 rout of the New York Jets. "To see nothing but smiles, we want to keep this feeling," safety Darian Stewart said. "We want to go into Indy with a fresh mind and leave there with a win."

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (+4.5) - Colts (+5) + home field (-3) = Colts -2.5.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as three-point road favorites and, as of Wednesday evening, that number is down to 2.5. The total hit betting boards at 41.5 and was dropped a full point to 40.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Hands down, the weakest NFL Thursday night night game to ever come down the pike finds the Broncos taking on the Colts with the loser bolstering their standing in the this year’s NFL draft. Unbelievably, Denver is 0-8 SU and ATS in its last 8 away games while Indianapolis has dominated this foe of late, going 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS the last 10 games in this series - including 5-0 SU and ATS at home. No surprise if we don’t see more of the same this evening." - Marc Lawrence.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

INJURY REPORT:

Broncos - S Jamal Carter (Probable, Shoulder), NT Domata Peko Sr. (Probable, Knee), LB Todd Davis (Probable, Concussion), QB Paxton Lynch (Late Dec, Ankle), S Justin Simmons (I-R, Ankle), G Billy Turner (Questionable, Hand), G Ron Leary (I-R, Back), DE Derek Wolfe (I-R, Neck), T Menelik Watson (I-R, Foot), QB Chad Kelly (I-R, Wrist), TE Jake Butt (I-R, Knee), LB Corey Nelson (I-R, Elbow), DE Jared Crick (I-R, Back), WR Carlos Henderson (I-R, Thumb), DE Billy Winn (I-R, Knee).

Colts - RB Frank Gore (Probable, Hand), DT Hassan Ridgeway (Probable, Shoulder), TE Darrell Daniels (Out, Hamstring), C Ryan Kelly (Out, Concussion), CB Nate Hairston (Out, Concussion), WR Donte Moncrief (Out, Ankle), CB Rashaan Melvin (Out Indefinitely, Hand), T Jack Mewhort (Questionable, Knee), LB John Simon (I-R, Shoulder), CB Pierre Desir (I-R, Shoulder), TE Erik Swoope (I-R, Knee), DT Henry Anderson (I-R, Throat), WR Quan Bray (I-R, Undisclosed), QB Andrew Luck (I-R, Shoulder), S Malik Hooker (I-R, Knee), RB Robert Turbin (I-R, Arm), WR Krishawn Hogan (I-R, Knee), G Deyshawn Bond (I-R, Quadricep), LB Edwin Jackson (I-R, Undisclosed), RB George Winn (I-R, Undisclosed), RB Christine Michael (I-R, Undisclosed).

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-9 SU, 3-9-1 ATS, 7-6 O/U): Trevor Siemian answered three-interception performances in each of his previous two starts with a turnover-free effort versus the Jets. "There's going to be times in the game you're smart, but you're aggressive at the same time," the 25-year-old Siemian said. "There's been a couple of times this year where I've been stupid and aggressive, which you can't be. You just want to have a good process." Siemian aims to take advantage of a Colts defense that is ranked 31st in points allowed per game (26.4) and 30th in both total yards (375.3) and passing yards (257.8). Demaryius Thomas reeled in eight receptions against the Jets for the second time in a six-game stretch, during which he has found the end zone four times.

ABOUT THE COLTS (3-10 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U): Frank Gore isn't interested in any talk about his age, and the veteran running back showed he's still up to the task by rushing a career-high 36 times for 130 yards last week versus the Bills. The 34-year-old needs 59 scrimmage yards to join Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith as the only players in NFL history with at least 12-plus consecutive seasons with 1,000 yards. Jack Doyle found the end zone in the snow last week, and his 64 receptions rank second amongst tight ends.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games.
* Colts are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games.
* Under is 6-1 in Broncos' last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 9-2 in Colts' last 11 home games.
* Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the Broncos on the road at a rate of 63 percent and the Over is getting 51 percent of the totals action.

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**Udog** · 12-16-2017, 11:32 AM

NFL

Saturday, December 16

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Saturday NFL Betting Preview and Odds: Bears at Lions
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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5, 44)

The Detroit Lions are still alive for a playoff spot in the NFC, and they'll continue to push hard for the finish. The Lions will try to keep hope alive on Saturday afternoon when they host the NFC North rival Chicago Bears, who have nothing to lose.

Detroit enters the week one game behind the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks in the race for the final NFC wild-card spot and kept themselves alive by pulling off a 24-21 win at Tampa Bay last week behind a solid performance from quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is dealing with an injury to his throwing hand. Stafford, who was questionable in the week leading up to Sunday's game at Tampa Bay before throwing for 381 yards, increased his activity at practice this week and is expected to play again behind a patchwork offensive line. The Bears played spoiler last week, essentially knocking the Cincinnati Bengals out of the playoff discussion in the AFC with a 33-7 win, and have a chance to disrupt things in the NFC with games remaining against the Lions and first-place Minnesota. "This is a tough time of year," Chicago coach John Fox told reporters after beating the Bengals. "You get to the fourth quarter of a game or a season, you gut it up with who you have, and our guys responded well."

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Bears (+4) - Lions (-0.5) + home field (-3) = Lions -7.5.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as 6.5-point home chalk at most books and money coming in on the road team drove the line down to -5. The total hit the betting board at 43.5 and was bet up slightly to 44.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Smart money is on the Bears right now as we’ve dropped the spread two points. The Lions aren’t exactly a sexy, public team while Chicago always has its public backers so we’ve definitely got some liability on the dog here. Currently, we have almost 75 percent of the money on the Bears." - Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:

Bears - QB Mark Sanchez (Day-to-Day, Illness), S DeAndre Houston-Carson (Day-to-Day, Ankle), S Adrian Amos (Day-to-Day, Hamstring), LB Pernell McPhee (Day-to-Day, Shoulder), NT Eddie Goldman (Day-to-Day, Hip), S Quintin Demps (Day-to-Day, Arm), G Kyle Long (I-R, Shoulder), DE Mitch Unrein (I-R, Knee), K Cairo Santos (I-R, Groin), LB Isaiah Irving (I-R, Knee).

Lions - RB Dwayne Washington (Day-to-Day, Hip), CB Jamal Agnew (Day-to-Day, Knee), RB Ameer Abdullah (Day-to-Day, Neck), OT Rick Wagner (Day-to-Day, Ankle), OT Emmett Cleary (Day-to-Day, Ankle), S Tavon Wilson (I-R, Shoulder).

ABOUT THE BEARS (4-9 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, 4-9 O/U): Rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky enjoyed the best game of his young career when he completed 25 of 32 passes for 271 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions last week, and his continued improvement is a positive for the team moving forward. "I just feel confident I'm getting better each week," Trubisky told reporters. "And, yes, it's fun to play, but I get feedback from my teammates. I can tell that they're confident in me, and that my play is just going to get better each week, and I know how to prepare. I just need to go out there and execute and just do it the way I'm coached. For us to come out with a win, that's the most important thing and the most important thing for me." Trubisky is getting some help in the running game from Jordan Howard, who ran for 147 yards and a pair of TDs against the Bengals to go over 1,000 yards rushing on the season.

ABOUT THE LIONS (7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, 9-4 O/U): Stafford could use some help from his running game, and there is hope that top rusher Ameer Abdullah could return on Saturday after sitting out the last two games. “That’s the coach’s call. That’s the coach’s call,” Abdullah told reporters about his status for Saturday. “It’s never in my hands, and if the coaches feel like it’s in the best direction, then maybe they know something I don’t, you know? I’m always going to trust that. I’m always going to fall behind the lead of this team." Abdullah and Stafford will both have to deal with injuries to protection as guard T.J. Lang (foot), center Travis Swanson (concussion) and tackle Rick Wagner (ankle) are all questionable.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

* Lions are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

* Over is 5-1 in Bears last 6 vs. NFC North.

* Over is 6-1 in Lions last 7 home games.

* Bears are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Detroit.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home favorite Lions at a rate of 65 percent and the Over is getting 65 percent of the totals action.

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**Udog** · 12-16-2017, 11:33 AM

NFL

Saturday, December 16

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Saturday Night NFL Betting Preview and Odds: Chargers at Chiefs
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Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+1, 46.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers were on opposite ends of the spectrum when they met in Week 3. Twelve weeks later, they’re playing for first place in the AFC West in Kansas City on Saturday night.

The Chiefs beat the Chargers 24-10 in Los Angeles en route to a 5-0 start during which they looked like the NFL’s best team, but six losses in seven games allowed the rest of the division back in the race. Kansas City righted the ship with a 26-15 victory over Oakland last week, while Los Angeles kept pace atop the division with a 30-13 trouncing of Washington. The Chargers have surged back into the playoff picture by winning four straight and seven of nine following an 0-4 start. To keep that hot streak going, they’ll have to snap a seven-game skid against the Chiefs during which they've lost by an average of 11.7 points.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (-2.5) - Chiefs (-1) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -1.5.

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 1-point home chalk, money quickly came in on the road team and jumped the fence to Chiefs +2 before fading back a bit to +1. The total hit the board at 46.5 and was bet down slightly to an even 46.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Big swing in the late game as we immediately took sharp action on L.A. We were as high as Chargers -2, but recently have received some respected Chiefs money so the spread has come back a point. We’re 50-50 on the tickets, but Chargers still have majority of the handle. This will probably close at a pick ‘em." - Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

WEATHER REPORT: 49 and partly cloudy at kickoff - winds at 12 mph and no chance of precipitation

INJURY REPORT:

Chargers - LB James Onwualu (Day-to-Day, Quadricep), RB Andre Williams (Out For Season, Wrist), K Nick Novak (I-R, Back)

Chiefs - DB Eric Murray (Day-to-Day, Ankle), OL Mitch Morse (Day-to-Day, Foot), DB Steven Terrell (I-R, Undisclosed), LB Dee Ford (I-R, Back), LB Dadi Nicolas (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (7-6 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, 4-9 O/U): Philip Rivers has passed for 337 yards per game with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in his last four contests, leading Los Angeles’ resurgent offense. Keenan Allen has been his go-to target during that stretch, catching 39 passes for 547 yards and four scores over the last four weeks, while tight end Hunter Henry has developed into one of Rivers’ top red-zone options. The Chargers’ defense quietly is putting together a great season, ranking second in scoring defense and third against the pass, but the run defense is spotty and was gashed for 189 yards in the first meeting.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS, 7-6 O/U): After a midseason lull, rookie running back Kareem Hunt got back on track with 116 rushing yards against the Raiders. Quarterback Alex Smith also has rebounded somewhat from a mini-slump, but he has recorded seven touchdown passes and five interceptions over his last five games after throwing for 16 scores with no interceptions in the first eight contests. The defense has been the weakness for the Chiefs, who rank 30th against the run and 28th versus the pass, but they limited Oakland to 268 total yards and forced three turnovers last week.

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

* Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

* Under is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 games overall.

* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

* Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Kansas City.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road favorite Chargers at a rate of 54 percent and the Over is getting 64 percent of the totals action.

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**Udog** · 12-17-2017, 09:23 AM

Essential Week 15 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

The Seahawks kept Todd Gurley under wraps early in their first meeting this season with the Rams. Will they be able to repeat the performance with a number of key defensive starters sitting out?

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+7, 41)

The Ravens passing attack had been impotent for most of the season but Joe Flacco seems to have gotten back on track. Baltimore is third last in passing yards per game at 179.8 but the club has aired it out for more than 260 yards in each of its last two contests. The added element has helped the Ravens score 44 and 38 points in back-to-back efforts.

LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened as 7.5-point favorites but most shops have dropped the number to a touchdown spread. The total opened at 40 and has gone up a point to 41.

TRENDS:

*The Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games.
*The Browns are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games.
*The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Browns.

Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (-3, 47)

The Packers get back the most important player in the league according to NFL oddsmakers. Multiple bookmakers have told us that Aaron Rodgers is worth up to 10 points to a spread. The quarterback is making his return for Green Bay after a seven-game absence.

Bettors need to ask – would the Packers have been 13-point road underdogs if Brett Hundley were starting instead of Rodgers?

LINE HISTORY: The line has been all over the place because of Rodgers’ return. Some books had the Panthers at one point this week giving six and other shops opened with the Packers as just 1-point road underdogs. Most shops are settling around a field goal spread. The total opened at 45 and has gone up to 47.

TRENDS:

*The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
*The over is 4-0 in the Panthers’ last four games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-11, 42)

The Bengals fired their offensive coordinator after Week 2 but their attack is beginning to peter out again. Cincinnati ranks 32nd in total offense and 28th in scoring offense after the club was held to seven points in last week’s loss to the Bears.

There doesn’t seem to be any type of successful halftime adjustments being made by the coaching staff. Last week was the third time this season Cincy was shut out in the second half of a game and the squad is last in the league in scoring in the final two quarters with an average of just 5.5 points per game.

LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened between 10.5 and 11-point home favorites and the line has stayed put for the most part.

TRENDS:

*The Vikings are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with losing records.
*The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-15.5, 47.5)

It’s now the Bryce Petty show in New York. The Jets third-year player is the next man up after starting quarterback Josh McCown broke his left hand. Petty’s performances as a pro haven’t been pretty. He completed just two of nine pass attempts for 14 yards in relief duty last week when McCown left the game – and that was with offensive coordinator John Morton keeping the kid gloves on for Petty.

LINE HISTORY: The books installed the Saints as 14.5-point chalk, bumped them up as high as 16 and now list the line at Saints -15.5.

TRENDS:

*The under is 5-2 in the Jets’ last seven games.
*The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-11, 38)

Jags starting running back Leonard Fournette is questionable to play on Sunday because of a hamstring injury. Jacksonville is 2-0 straight up and against the spread in the two games it played this season with its rookie running back but those victories did come against the Colts and Bengals.

The Jags hadn’t been double-digit faves in 10 years but oddsmakers have them giving 10 or more points for the second time in three weeks. Jacksonville won 30-10 as a 10-point home fave against the Colts two weeks ago.

LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened with the Jags installed as 12.5-point favorites but just about every location has the spread at 11 points. The total opened at 39.5 and has been bet down to 38.

TRENDS:

*The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against AFC South opponents.
*The under is 5-1 in the Texans’ last six games.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+7.5, 40.5)

Carson Wentz will be missed by Eagles backers but maybe not against a team like the Giants. The Eagles own the second best rushing offense in the league while the Giants own the 31st ranked run defense. Running back Jay Ajayi is averaging 7.0 yards per carry since the Dolphins traded him to Philadelphia.

LINE HISTORY: The spread opened with the Eagles giving eight points. Most shops now list Philly as 7.5-point chalk. The total is holding around 40 points.

TRENDS:

*The Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games.
*The Eagles are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games against the G-Men.
*The under is 8-2 in the Giants’ last 10 home games.

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (-4, 41)

The Redskins offense has dropped off a cliff in recent weeks. Washington has scored just 28 points in its last two games after averaging 23.5 points over its first 11 games of the season.
Injuries to their offensive playmakers could be the root problem. Tight end Jordan Reed was placed on the injury reserve joining running backs Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson along with wideout Terrelle Pryor on the list.

Left tackle Trent Williams and receiver Ryan Grant are also listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Cards.

LINE HISTORY: The big movement on this game’s odds happened on the total. Oddsmakers opened with the over/under line set at 44 and it’s now down as low as 41.

TRENDS:

*The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
*The over is 25-9 in the Redskins’ last 34 games overall.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3, 39)

Miami backers might want to slow their roll regarding last week’s win over the Patriots. Jay Cutler had his best game in a Phins uniform and Tom Brady played his worst game of the season. The Dolphins didn’t allow a single New England third down conversion and won the time of possession battle 36 to 24.

The Dolphins haven’t been as explosive on the road this year. They’ve been outscored by a combined 91 points in five away games this season.

LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened as 3.5-point home faves but the line came down a half point to make the game a field-goal spread.

TRENDS:

*The over is 4-0 in the last four games between Miami and Buffalo.
*The over is 12-3 in the Bills’ last 15 home games.
*The over is 7-1 in the Dolphins’ last eight games.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2, 47.5)

The last time the Rams and Seahawks played Pete Carroll’s defense locked up LA running back Todd Gurley to 50 yards on 16 offenses touches. Of course in that game, Seattle had defensive starters Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman and K.J. Wright. Chancellor and Sherman are out and Wright is listed as doubtful.

Gurley is the center of the Rams’ offense. He’s accounted for 13 of the team’s 35 offensive touchdowns and he’s second in the league behind Le’Veon Bell for total yards gained from scrimmage with 1637.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Seahawks favored by a point and the line has crept a up to Seattle -2. The total opened at 48 and is now at 47.5 at most locations.

TRENDS:

*The Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
*The under is 15-5-1 in the last 21 games between these two teams.

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 45)

The 49ers’ offensive line will have its hand full going against the Titans pass rush. Tennessee sacked Arizona quarterback Blaine Gabbert eight times last week and has 20 QB-takedowns over the last three games. San Francisco is tied for the seven most sacks allowed this season with 39.

LINE HISTORY: The 49ers opened as 2-point home chalk but the line is dropping closer to a pick’em as we get closer to game day.

TRENDS:

*The Titans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.
*The under is 5-1 in the 49ers’ last six games.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5, 54.5)

The last time the Steelers were home underdogs was the last time they played the Patriots. New England was a 7.5-point fave at Pittsburgh last season but that was with Landry Jones – not Ben Roethlisberger starting under center.

Quarterback Tom Brady has thrown 24 TD pass compared to just three interceptions in nine career regular season games against the Steelers.

LINE HISTORY: The spread opened at Pitt +2 and the action seems to be on the Pats as the line slowly creeps to the field goal mark.

TRENDS:

*The Pats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.
*The over is 4-0 in the Steelers last four games.

Dallas Cowboys at Oakland Raiders (+3, 45.5)

Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has been instructed to “let it rip” from his head coach and offensive coordinator. The coaching staff says Carr has opted for the conservative pass option too often this season. Those instructions should be music to the ears of over bettors.

LINE HISTORY: Dallas opened as 2-point chalk and is a 3-point fave heading into Sunday. The total can be found between 45.5 and 46.5.

TRENDS:

*The Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
*The under is 5-1 in the Cowboys’ last six games.

**Udog** · 12-17-2017, 12:44 PM

NFL

Sunday, December 17

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Sunday Night NFL Betting Preview and Odds: Cowboys at Raiders
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Dallas Cowboys at Oakland Raiders (+3, 45.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have won two straight to climb back into postseason contention but they face another team battling for its playoff life when they visit the Oakland Raiders on Sunday night. Trendy choices to win division titles entering the season, both Dallas and Oakland sit one game out of the final playoff slot in their respective conferences.

"I think the two of us probably expected to have a few more wins at this point in the year," Raiders coach Jack Del Rio said of his team and the Cowboys. "We are where we are and we’re looking forward to playing.” Dallas re-entered the postseason conversation by amassing 68 points in beating up on NFC East rivals Washington and New York, but there are still four teams in front of the Cowboys for the last wild-card berth in the NFC. “Coach (Jason) Garrett talks about it all the time, that the only thing that matters is what we do now,” veteran tight end Jason Witten said. “I mean, you don’t know how it’s all going to play out here in the next few weeks, but let’s give ourselves the best chance.” With its final two games on the road, Oakland may have squandered its best chance of securing the AFC West title by suffering a lopsided 26-15 loss at Kansas City last week in a showdown for first place.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys (0.5) - Raiders (1.5) + home field (-3) = Raiders -2.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened as 2-point home dogs at most shops, money coming in on the road Cowboys bumped that line up to a field goal. The total hit the betting board at 46 and is down slightly to 45.5 at most books.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: 'A few weeks ago, it appeared both of these teams had maybe given up on the season, but Dallas has now won back-to-back games, while the Raiders have won two of their past three games. However, both teams have benefited from playing struggling opponents. They both beat the Giants, and the Cowboys beat the Redskins, while the Raiders beat the Broncos.' - Steve Merril

WEATHER REPORT: 58 dropping to 51 degrees and clear during the game - winds 3.5 fto 4.5 mph throughout

INJURY REPORT:

Cowboys - LB Justin Durant (Probable, Concussion), OT La'el Collins (Questionable, Back), TE James Hanna (Questionable, Knee), OT Tyron Smith (Questionable, Back), DT Maliek Collins (Questionable, Foot), LB Sean Lee (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Orlando Scandrick (Questionable, Back), DL David Irving (Questionable, Concussion), WR Brice Butler (Questionable, Foot), K Dan Bailey (Questionable, Hamstring).

Raiders - DE Jihad Ward (Probable, Foot), TE Jared Cook (Probable, Wrist), DL Denico Autry (Questionable, Hand), DB Keith McGill II (Questionable, Knee), S Obi Melifonwu (Questionable, Hip), TE Clive Walford (Questionable, Concussion), OL Jon Feliciano (Questionable, Concussion), DE Mario Edwards (Questionable, Ankle), WR Amari Cooper (Doubtful, Ankle), CB David Emerson (Out Indefinitely, Foot).

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS, 6-7 O/U): Dallas scored a combined 22 points in losing three in a row following the six-game suspension to star running back Ezekiel Elliott, but it had its second straight 30-point performance as Dak Prescott threw for three touchdowns and a career-high 332 yards against the Giants. Running back Rod Smith had 160 yards from scrimmage with both a rushing and receiving touchdown for the Cowboys, who will get Elliott back for the final two games against Seattle and at Philadelphia. Star wideout Dez Bryant has a touchdown reception in each of the past two games but has failed to reach 100 yards this season. Dallas has caused a league-high 20 forced fumbles and had four of its nine interceptions in the past two games.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (6-7 SU, 4-8-1 ATS, 5-8 O/U): Oakland was a no-show for much of last week's loss, falling into a 26-point hole before putting up a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns to make the final score look respectable. Derek Carr has thrown six interceptions in the past six games -- matching his total from the 2016 season -- and the big-play element is missing from the passing game with wideout Amari Cooper eclipsing 62 yards once this season and looming as a question mark for Sunday after aggravating an ankle injury early in last week's loss. Marshawn Lynch has rushed for a touchdown in each of the past three games but he has more than 14 carries only twice in the last 11 games.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

* Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

* Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games overall.

* Under is 4-0 in Raiders last 4 games overall.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road favorite Cowboys at a rate of 59 percent and the Over is getting 65 percent of the totals action.

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**Udog** · 12-18-2017, 09:52 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Top 6 picks in Week 15 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Dallas Cowboys, -3 (595)- T

5) Los Angeles Rams, +2 (621)- W

4) New England Patriots, -3 (670)- T

3) Los Angeles Chargers, even (719)- L

2) Kansas City Chiefs, even (750)- W

1) San Francisco 49ers, -2 (765)- T

Record of top 6 picks each week: 44-43-3

**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Patriots 27, Steelers 24— NFL needs to fix its catch rule; it lacks common sense, but lets be real- Steelers could’ve kicked a FG on the next play and gone to OT. They gambled on the last play and it blew up on them the same way it blew up on Seattle in their Super Bowl loss to NE.

Steelers converted 10-16 on 3rd down, outgained Patriots 413-360; they had 63 penalty yards, New England had 4 penalty yards. Four. This was the 3rd time in their last five games that New England had either one or two accepted penalties. Go figure.

Patriots are now 13-2 vs spread coming off their last fifteen losses.

Rams 42, Seahawks 7— Rams scored five TDs in this game, none on scoring drives longer than 47 yards; LA won field position by 24 yards, ran ball for 244 yards and totally dominated Seahawks’ offensive line. This was the Rams’ biggest game since 2003, and they came up huge.

Rams haven’t clinched anything yet, but they look to be headed to the #3 seed in NFC. As for the Seahawks, Pete Carroll has to get them ready to play in Dallas Sunday- they’ll need help to make the playoffs, but they ain’t dead yet. Carroll has a lot of coaching to do this week.

Jaguars 45, Texans 7— Jacksonville is in the playoffs for the first time in 10 years, outgaining Houston 464-186 in this game. Jaguars won seven of last eight games, are right now the #3 seed in AFC- they visit Chargers, Titans in last two games.

As for Houston, games like this get coaches fired, but O’Brien/Watson were a potent combo when the rookie QB was healthy. Will be interesting to see if Texans bring O’Brien back in 2018, seeing how they’re 1-7 in their last eight games.

Cowboys 20, Raiders 17— In what was basically an elimination game between storied franchises, Dallas survived, thanks to winning a 4th down measurement by a millimeter, and then when Oakland QB Carr fumbled trying to stretch the ball over the goal line in the last minute- the ball went into the end zone for a touchback.

Favorites are 13-0 SU this week (Chiefs/Rams closed as pick ‘em), 10-2-1 vs spread.

Eagles 34, Giants 29— Eli Manning passed for 434 yards, but Philly won for 11th time in last 12 games, with two short TD drives of 20-18 yards. Eagles clinch a first-round bye in the playoffs; they were outgained 504-331 here, but they won field position by 11 yards and Nick Foles won his first start this season- he is 21-16 as an NFL starter. Philly is now 9-2 in its last 11 games vs the Giants in the Garden State.

49ers 25, Titans 23— Niners won four of last five games after an 0-9 start; Garoppolo is first QB since Ben Roethlisberger to win his first five NFL starts. Titans-Bills-Ravens are in 3-way tie for the two AFC Wild Card slots- the last two weeks are going to be fun.

Titans close with Rams/Jaguars at home; Ravens close with Colts/Bengals, Buffalo plays New England and Miami. Six of last eight Tennessee games were decided by 5 or less points.

Next summer, 49ers will be a fashionable Cinderella pick in the NFC- the media loves John Lynch, the 49ers’ new GM. And now SF has its quarterback of the future.

Panthers 31, Packers 24— Broken collarbones take 12 weeks to heal, whether its Aaron Rodgers’ collarbone or your collarbone or mine. He came back in eight weeks, was 26-45/290, with 3 TD’s, 3 INTs. You throw three INTs, you usually lose.

Carolina has won six of its last seven games; they close with the Bucs/Falcons. With Green Bay pretty much out of it now, do they play Rodgers the last two games, or let his collarbone heal fully and let Brett Hundley play the last two games?

Speaking of the Panthers, 81-year old owner Jerry Richardson will sell the team after news got out that he has paid off a few Panthers’ employees after they were harassed by Richardson, who has had a heart transplant and is the only NFL owner who also played in the league.

Steph Curry tweeted that he is interested in buying into the Panthers.

Vikings 34, Bengals 7— Minnesota clinches the NFC North by clubbing a disinterested Bengals team that will have a new coach next season. Cincy was outscored 67-14 in their last two games.

It is easy to criticize Marvin Lewis because he never won a playoff game (0-7) in Cincinnati, but he is also 123-119-3 as coach of the Bengals. Cincinnati’s three coaches before Lewis combined to go 52-124 from 1992-2002.

Wonder what odds you could’ve gotten in August for Case Keenum as NFL’s MVP?

Bills 24, Dolphins 16— Tennessee’s loss to the 49ers is a big boost to Buffalo’s playoff chances; Bllls were +3 in turnovers here, allowed only one TD in Miami’s three red zone drives and now they are 8-6. Miami came to western New York on a short work week and now they’ve been outscored 144-54 in their last four road games.

Home teams are 7-1-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season.

Buffalo might want to practice clock management; they led 24-6 in 4th quarter, but Miami had the ball with 0;35 left near midfield, down 24-16, in what would’ve been an epic choke by Buffalo, which was snapping the ball with 0:10-0:20 left on play clock with 7-8 minutes left in the 4th quarter. Need to milk that play clock for every second you can when you’re protecting a 4th quarter lead.

Saints 31, Jets 19— Saints/Carolina are tied atop NFC South, but Saints swept Carolina. so they control own destiny. New Orleans has rematch with the Falcons this week; they’ve won their last six home games. Jets lost seven of last nine games. Saints had 7 plays of 20+ yards; they have 41 in their last six games.

Redskins 20, Cardinals 15— Hard to win when you don’t score a touchdown; Arizona is only team this week not to score an offensive TD- they had ball in the red zone six times, kicked five FG’. Cardinals ran 80 plays to Washington’s 47, but only gained 286 yards, completing only 16-41 passes. Washington was out-rushed 497-192 in its last three games.

Ravens 27, Browns 10— Baltimore won four of last five games; they’re in 3-way tie for two AFC Wild Cards, but right now, they’re odd team odd. Good news is that they close with couple of lame duck coaches, playing Colts/Bengals to finish season out.

Baltimore had a 17-yard edge in field position, as Browns are now 1-29 the last two years- they are 3-11 vs spread this year. From sounds of things, USC’s coaches should be happy Cleveland is so terrible; USC QB Sam Darnold doesn’t want to play there, may stay in school another year.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 ( Thur., Dec. 14 - Mon., Dec. 18 )

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 ( Thur., Dec. 14 - Mon., Dec. 18 )

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