NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 ( Thur., Oct. 19 - Mon., Oct. 23 )

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 7 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Washington Redskins, +5 (681)

5) San Francisco 49ers, +6.5 (687)- L

4) Denver Broncos, +1.5 (729)- L

3) Carolina Panthers, -3 (+750)- L

2) Green Bay Packers, +5.5 (803)- L

1) Cincinnati Bengals, +5.5 (810)- L

Season record of top 6 picks: 15-26. No bueno


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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Titans 12, Browns 9 OT— Not a great week for offense; seven teams failed to score an offensive TD, five others scored only one TD on offense. Total yardage in this game: 284-269 Browns, but they threw three INTs and Kizer was benched again, this time for Cody Kessler. At one point, Cleveland declined a face mask penalty on the Titans, leaving Tennessee with a 4th-and-1, but then the Browns jumped offside, which led to a Titan FG, which was the margin of victory.

Memo to the Ivy League nitwit who runs the Browns: Draft a bleeping quarterback!!!!

Jaguars 27, Colts 0— Total yardage was 518-232 Jaguars- they were -2 in turnovers and still jogged to an easy win, running ball for 188 yards. Colts have been outscored 134-44 in second half of game; now that Andrew Luck has had a setback and may not return this year, hard to imagine Chuck Pagano won’t get fired. Jaguars averaged 11.8 yards per pass attempt.

Steelers 29, Bengals 14— Game was 14-14 with 7:12 left in the half; from that point on, Steelers had ball seven times, kicked five FGs and won going away. Pittsburgh ran a really cool fake punt, snapping ball to the up-back, who passed the ball to the gunner on the right sideline— never saw that play before. Steelers scored only 38 points on their last 11 red zone drives, a red flag. Cincy is 1-6 vs spread in last seven games as a road underdog.

Vikings 24, Ravens 16—- Baltimore lost 4 of its last 5 games after a 2-0 start; they scored total of five TDs on 56 drives in those games. Stuff I read on the Internet this week from knowledgeable NFL writers blamed the Raven WR’s, not Flacco— I blame whoever hired Marty Mornhinweg as offensive coordinator— the guy is awful. Vikings are now 15-5 as a home favorite under Zimmer. Will Vikings turn to Teddy Bridgewater or stick with Case Keenum at QB?

Dolphins 31, Jets 28— Second week in row Jets had 14-point lead but lost; second week in a row Dolphins trailed by 14+ points but won. Cutler got hurt; backup QB Matt Moore was 13-21/188 and led Miami to a comeback win. Jets’ QB McCown threw an awful INT with 0:39 left, giving Dolphins the ball on the Jets’ 27- they kicked winning FG with 0:22 left, ending a 6-game skid against their AFC East rivals.

Bills 30, Buccaneers 27— Buffalo blew 17-6 3rd quarter lead, but recovered a fumble on the Bucs’ 33-yard line with 2:20 left- they kicked winning FG with 0:14 left. Winston threw for 378 yards but Tampa Bay turned ball over three times— Buffalo is +10 in turnovers this season and is 4-2. Rookie TE Howard has 6 catches for 98 yards on 6 targets for Tampa Bay

Bears 17, Panthers 3— One of strangest boxscores I’ve ever seen; rookie safety Eddie Jackson became first player ever to score two defensive TDs of 75+ yards in a game, scoring on a fumble return and an INT return off a tipped ball. Chicago then sat on the lead; Trubisky was 2-5/94 yards passing the first half, threw only 7 passes in whole game. Total yardage was 293-153 Carolina; Bears had only five first downs the whole game, but won by two TD’s. Go figure.

Saints 26, Packers 17— Line moved roughly nine points because of Rodgers’ injury; Hundley was 12-25/87 passing in his first NFL start. Brees was picked off on his first two drives, but Saints scored two TD’s, two FG’s on their last four drives. Packers ran 21 play for 65 yards and only 3 points in second half. New Orleans scored 13 TD’s on their last 43 drives.

Rams 33, Cardinals 0— Arizona missed a short FG on first drive, things got much worse from there; Carson Palmer broke his left arm, could be out for year. Stanton/Gabbert are Arizona’s backup QB’s.

One of the unexpected perks of writing in this space every day is the chance to meet some great people. Made couple of new friends from Canada this weekend; they stopped in Albany on their way to Foxwoods Casino in Connecticut. Had a meal and lot of fun conversation— I’ve made new friends in Indiana, New Jersey, Las Vegas and now Canada from this site. Good stuff.

Cowboys 40, 49ers 10— Dallas ran ball for 265 yards, had 14-yard edge in field position, as they pounded the 49ers coming off their bye. Third straight game Cowboys scored 30+ points; they recovered three SF fumbles, are now 8-3 vs spread in last 11 games as a road favorite.

49ers are 0-7, but 5-2 vs spread; they’ve got a rookie QB starting now, were outgained 501-290 in this game- four of their last five games went over the total.

Seahawks 24, Giants 7— Seattle had 11-yard edge in field position, held Giants to 46 yards on ground in game Big Blue led 7-3 at the half. Giants’ only TD drive was 17 yards after a turnover; they missed a 47-yard FG when Seahawks led 10-7.

Seahawks’ offensive players were screaming at each other on sideline in first half; Doug Baldwin pushed an assistant coach who tried to intervene, but all of that was probably forgotten when a trick play resulted in a 38-yard TD pass that put Seattle up 17-7 with 9:34 left to play.

Chargers 21, Broncos 0— Chargers won their third game in a row after an 0-4 start; they ran a punt back for a TD for their first score, then had three takeaways in a game where total yardage was 251-242, Denver. Broncos are 0-2 on road, scoring one TD on 23 drives in games against Bills/Chargers; this was only Bolts’ third win in last 14 games against Denver.

Patriots 23, Falcons 7— Atlanta had ball in red zone four times, scored only once, on a TD that made score 23-7 with 4:09 left- they had a short FG blocked, clanked a shorter FG off upright. Falcons lost their last three games after a 3-0 start; luckily for them, there had been only one divisional game played in NFC South so far, so the division race is still up for grabs.

This turned into a fog game in second half, as if the Falcons playing under the cloud of last year’s Super Bowl wasn’t bad enough.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 23

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Redskins at Eagles
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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 49)

When the Philadelphia Eagles step onto the field for Monday's prime-time clash against the visiting Washington Redskins, they will own the best record in the NFL and have a chance to take total control of the NFC East. The Eagles have ripped off four consecutive victories to open a two-game lead on the Redskins as they vie for a sweep of the season series.

Philadelphia won its first three games last season under rookie quarterback Carson Wentz before going into a tailspin, but the team seems better equipped to continue its success this time around. "Having a year together with this team, under Coach, myself, everything, we're just built differently," Wentz told reporters. "We have a different character makeup in that locker room, and we just have a bunch of guys that believe that, no matter the situation, we can find a way to win a ballgame." Washington, which won five straight in the series before dropping a 30-17 decision to the Eagles in the season opener, held on for a 26-24 victory over winless San Francisco last weekend after building an early 17-point lead. The Redskins' only other loss was a 29-20 setback at then-unbeaten Kansas City, which also handed Philadelphia its only defeat.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Redskins (0) - Eagles (-3) + home field (-3) = Eagles -6

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as 5.5-home chalk and early money on the road team has brought that number down a full-point to 4.5, where it currently stands. The total hit the betting board at 48.5 and has been bet up at an even 49.

INJURY REPORT:

Washington - OT Trent Williams (Probable, Knee), LB Ryan Anderson (Probable, Back), LB Mason Foster (Questionable, Shoulder), G Tyler Catalina (Questionable, Concussion), RB Rob Kelley (Questionable, Ankle), S Deshazor Everett (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Bashaud Breeland (Questionable, Knee), S Stefan McClure (Questionable, Knee), CB Josh Norman (Doubtful, Ribs), OT Jonathan Allen I-R, Foot), K Dustin Hopkins (I-R, Hip).

Philadelphia - DT Beau Allen (Probable, Foot), DT Destiny Vaeao (Probable, Wrist), DE Brandon Graham (Probable, Shoulder), LB Jordan Hicks (Probable, Ankle), RB Wendall Smallwood (Probable, Knee), OT Lance Johnson (Probable, Concussion), DT Tim Jernigan (Questionable, Ankle), CB Ronald Darby (Questionable, Ankle), S Jaylen Watkins (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Nigel Bradham (Questionable, Upper Body), WR Mack Hollins (Questionable, Leg)

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Quarterback Kirk Cousins had his worst performance in the season opener, but he is coming off a strong three-game stretch and leads the NFC with a 106.4 passer rating. Running back Rob Kelley is dealing with an ankle injury, which could mean the bulk of playing time will go to rookie Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson, who already has recorded two 100-yard receiving performances and made four catches for 52 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. With wideouts Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder continuing to struggle, the tight-end tandem of Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis has combined for 29 catches. Linebacker Preston Smith has registered 4.5 of the team's 15 sacks, including one in the season opener.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Wentz entered the weekend fifth in passing yards (1,584) with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions, and during the four-game winning streak has thrown nine scoring passes against only one pick. Moving to the slot has provided a boost for third-year wideout Nelson Agholor, who has recorded four catches and a TD reception in each of the last two games. However, Wentz's top target is tight end Zach Ertz, who hauled in a pair of touchdown passes last week and has been a nemesis for the Redskins - evidenced by an eight-catch, 93-yard performance in Week 1. Philadelphia ranks No. 1 in the league against the run, allowing an average of 65.7 yards, but is surrendering a generous 273.5 passing yards.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

* Over is 8-0 in Redskins last 8 games following a ATS loss.

* Over is 9-2 in Eagles last 11 vs. NFC East.

* Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home fave Eagles are picking up 55 percent of the action on the spread and Over is grabbing 64 percent of the totals selections.


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[Udog]

NFL Opening Line Report: Sharp action bloats Bucs spread vs. Carolina
Patrick Everson

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers find new ways to lose each week. They've dropped three in a row but sharp bettors are backing Jameis Winston and Co. to cover against the Panthers.

Week 8 of the NFL season doesn’t have any truly eye-catching matchups, but a couple of NFC East rivals could spice things up a bit. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (no line)

Dallas put a two-game losing skid in its rearview mirror, and in convincing fashion in Week 7. The Cowboys (3-3 SU and ATS) went to San Francisco as 6.5-point road favorites and left with a 40-10 rout to climb back to .500.

Washington (3-2 SU and ATS) still has Week 7 work to do, traveling to Philadelphia for Monday Night Football this evening. In Week 6, the Redskins beat the 49ers, too, albeit in a much tighter game, 26-24 as a 12-point home chalk.

Since Washington plays tonight, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on posting an opening line, though Cooley has an idea of where it will land.

“We’ll wait until Monday Night Football concludes, but look for this to surface around a pick ‘em,” he said. “No doubt we’ll get public money on the Cowboys, so if the sharps don’t get involved, expect the spread to trend in Dallas’ direction.”

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Carolina just can’t seem to figure out what it is yet. Earlier this month, the Panthers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) won outright as an underdog at New England and at Detroit. Cam Newton & Co. then lost their next two games, including Sunday’s dismal 17-3 setback to Chicago as a 2.5-point road fave.

Tampa Bay won two of its first three games, but has since dropped three in a row. The Buccaneers (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) had to swallow a bitter pill Sunday at Buffalo, taking a 27-20 lead on a touchdown with 3:14 remaining, then giving up 10 points those final minutes to lose 30-27 catching 3 points.

“Two of the more mercurial teams in the league, so we opened with basically a pick ‘em,” Cooley said. “Early smart money has come in on the Bucs. We all know that the Panthers defense is a different unit without Luke Kuechly.”

That early sharp play on Tampa drove the line up to -2.5.

Kuechly, Carolina’s standout linebacker, sat out against the Bears and remains under concussion protocol.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+3)

Pittsburgh just might be getting back on track, winning and cashing the past two weeks. The Steelers (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) dropped Cincinnati 29-14 Sunday as a 4-point home favorite.

Detroit won three of its first four games, but enter this contest having lost two in a row. The Lions (3-3 SU and ATS) had a bye in Week 7 and probably needed it after giving up a 50-burger-plus in Week 6 – a 52-38 road loss to New Orleans as a 6-point pup.

“We’re definitely expecting the classic divide here, with sharps on Detroit and squares on the Steelers,” Cooley said. “Has Pittsburgh finally found its offensive footing? We’ll certainly find out against what seems to be a bleeding Lions defense.”

Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

Seattle has won and cashed for bettors in its past three games, though surprisingly is still looking up at the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West. The Seahawks (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) made a successful cross-country trip in Week 7, dropping the New York Giants 24-7 as a 4-point chalk.

Houston, coming off its bye week, hopes to keep pace with Tennessee and upstart Jacksonville in the middling AFC South. Prior to that bye, the Texans (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) topped Cleveland 33-17 giving 7.5 points at home.

“Wiseguys are on the Texans early here,” Cooley said, alluding to the line dropping from -6 to -5.5 at Bookmaker.eu. “Houston obviously lost an edge on the defensive front (J.J. Watt injury), but it’s still sound, and the offense has more than made up for it. Outside of Andy Reid, nobody is calling better plays than Bill O’Brien right now. It will be a great test against Seattle’s D.”

[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 8
Monty Andrews

The Bears, Packers and Ravens have gone a combined 13-for-45 on third downs during Minnesota's three-game winning streak. The Vikings' D should feast on the Browns in Week 8.

Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (+9.5, 37.5)
Vikings' third-down shutdown D vs. Browns' offensive struggles

The Cleveland Browns approach the midway point of the NFL's regular season still looking for their first victory - and Week 8 presents as big a challenge as they've faced all year as they welcome the vaunted Minnesota Vikings defense to town. Cleveland nearly came away with win No. 1 last week but ultimately fell short 12-9 in overtime - and it was yet another shoddy performance on third down that played a major role in the Browns remaining winless. They'll get no relief in that regard this week.

The Vikings have done plenty of things well this season en route to a 5-2 record and sole possession of top spot in an NFC North division that is completely up for grabs. And third-down defense has the centerpiece of the Vikings' defensive effort, with Minnesota allowing teams to score or extend drives on just 27.3 percent of their opportunities - the second-lowest rate in football. The Bears, Packers and Ravens have gone a combined 13-for-45 on third downs during Minnesota's three-game winning streak.

That run of dominance on third-down plays should continue against a Browns offense that can't seem to figure anything out. Cleveland is converting an abysmal 28.7 percent of third-down opportunities, the worst rate in football; going 3-for-13 on Sunday against the visiting Tennessee Titans cost the Browns their shot at a first victory. With the quarterback situation up in the air - yet again - for this weekend, look for Cleveland to struggle extending drives against a tough Minnesota defense.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 45.5)
Raiders' wretched rush attack vs. Bills' top-flight run D

Last week's last-second victory over the Kansas City Chiefs might have bought the Oakland Raiders some goodwill, but they'll need a much better effort if they hope to extend their fortunes this weekend in Buffalo. The Raiders rode a Michael Crabtree touchdown reception on the last play of the game to a 31-30 triumph over the Chiefs, but if they can't get their running game going, they'll face an uphill battle moving forward - and this will be a tough matchup to make inroads on the ground.

Oakland was forced to do without Marshawn Lynch after the veteran running back was ejected early in Thursday's thrilling victory. And while Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington fared well in his absence, the Raiders still mustered just 88 rushing yards on the evening. Acquiring Lynch was supposed to shore up the running game, but Oakland ranks 24th in rushing yards per game (92.9) and will need to find a way to be more reliant on the ground game in the future.

That future, however, might not start this week. The Bills own one of the most punishing run defenses in football, limiting opposing teams to 84.5 yards per game on the ground. That dominance was on full display in last week's 30-27 win over visiting Tampa Bay, as the Buccaneers mustered just 69 yards on 25 carries. Buffalo's 3.4 yards-per-carry-average against is the fourth-best rate among NFL defenses - and with Lynch suspended for Sunday's game, that rate could sink even lower.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2.5, OFF)
Cowboys' red-zone rampage vs. Redskins' defensive doldrums

The Cowboys had been scuffling going into last week's game in San Francisco, but they took out all of their early-season frustrations on the winless 49ers in a 40-10 rout. The Dallas defense still has a long way to go to become Super Bowl-calibre, but it's hard to argue with the assertion that the Cowboys' offense is already there. Dallas has been one of the most dangerous red-zone teams in the league, and will look to continue that downfield dominance against a Washington team struggling to prevent red-zone scores.

Dallas finished with a top-five red-zone touchdown rate last season and has picked up right where it left off, going into Week 8 ranked second in the league in red-zone visits resulting in six points (66.7 percent). Only the Green Bay Packers (73.9 percent) have been better - and with Aaron Rodgers on the shelf indefinitely, it shouldn't be long before the Cowboys own top spot. Ezekiel Elliott has been a major factor in this regard, tied for fourth in the NFL with four rushing touchdowns.

The Redskins' defense struggled all night long in a 34-24 loss in Philadelphia on Monday, and has been one of the most charitable units in football when it comes to red-zone offense. Washington has permitted teams to score touchdowns on 64.7 percent of their trips inside the Redskins' 20-yard line; only Miami, Green Bay and Cleveland have been worse. With Elliott already cleared to play in Week 8, it could be another long day for Washington's beleaguered red-zone defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions (+3, 45)
Steelers' drive-killing prowess vs. Lions' first-down follies

The Steelers might have a claim as the best team in the AFC after rolling to a 29-14 victory over the rival Cincinnati Bengals. Pittsburgh is now 5-2 on the season and appears to have put its early-season drama behind it. Yet, for all the attention paid to the dynamic duo of Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, it has been the Pittsburgh defense that has made the real difference so far - and when it comes to first downs, the Steelers own a decided edge over an inconsistent Lions team.

Pittsburgh has quashed opponents' drives better than almost anyone over the past three games, limiting foes to an average of 12.7 first downs - the second-fewest of any team over that stretch. The Bengals managed a meager 11 first downs in Sunday's loss, which dropped the Steelers' average first downs allowed to 15.4 on the season - behind only the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers, considered two of the top overall defenses in football.

The Detroit offense hasn't been firing on all cylinders quite yet; sure, it produced 38 points in the final game prior to the Week 7 bye, but that was only because the Lions were in catch-up mode for the entire game. Detroit is averaging a modest 18 first downs per game so far, good for 23rd in the league. That leaves the Lions near the middle of the pack in time of possession - another tick in favor of the Steelers, whose drive-killing defense has them ranked third overall in TOP.