NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 ( Thur., Sept. 21 - Mon., Sept. 25)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Oakland at Washington
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oakland Raiders at Washington Redskins (+3, 55)

An injury to Derek Carr toward the end of last season KO'd Oakland's title aspirations but the quarterback's return has the Raiders looking like a serious Super Bowl contender. Carr and Oakland will try to remain unbeaten under the glare of a national spotlight when they travel cross country to visit the Washington Redskins on Sunday.

Carr will make his 50th NFL start and has a chance to reach the .500 mark with a victory -- no small feat for a player who began his career with 10 consecutive defeats. "Whenever you start 0-10, it usually doesn't end well, but I'm glad that we're trending in the right direction," said Carr, who is 14-3 in his last 17 starts. "That first year, as we all know, was rough for everybody. To be able to win some more games since that day, it's a good thing." Washington laid an egg in its season opener, a 30-17 loss at home to Philadelphia, but averted an 0-2 start by scoring late in a 27-20 win at the Los Angeles Rams a week ago. “Oh, we’re excited," Redskins coach Jay Gruden said of facing Oakland. "I think losing our opener -- home opener against Philadelphia -- hurt a little bit and we’re excited to get our next home game. We know it’s going to be a great test.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Raiders (-3.5) - Redskins (0) + home field (-3) = Raiders +0.5

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened the week as 3.5-point road favorites but quickly dropped to 3 Monday morning and remained there all week. The total hit the betting boards at 53 and has been all the way up to 55.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: This is a rare Sunday night home game for the Redskins on primetime national TV, so the crowd will be excited. However, the Raiders actually caught a scheduling break here. An early 1 pm ET (10 am PT) start time would have been tougher for Oakland, especially since they traveled to Tennessee in Week 1, back to Oakland last week, and now completely across the country for Week 3. - ‘Steve Merril’.

INJURY REPORT:

Raiders - CB Sean Smith (Probable, Neck), CB Gareon Conley (Probable, Shin), TE Jared Cook (Probable, Shoulder), WR Amari Cooper (Probable, Knee), RB DeAndre Washington (Questionable, Hamstring), DB Keith McGill II (Questionable, Foot).

Redskins - S Deshazor Everett (Probable, Eye), RB Rob Kelley (Probable, Ribs), T Morgan Moses (Questionable, Ankle), TE Jordan Reed (Questionable, Shoulder), CB Josh Norman (Questionable, Shoulder), S Montae Nicholson (Questionable, Shoulder), LB Mason Foster (Doubtful, Shoulder), S Su’a Cravens (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Marshawn Lynch, who came out of retirement to join his hometown team, rushed for 45 yards and a touchdown in last week's 45-20 drubbing of the New York Jets in helping Oakland pile up 180 yards on the ground. Carr, who broke his leg in Week 16 last season, tossed three scoring passes to Michael Crabtree against the Jets and has five TD passes against zero interceptions after throwing only six picks in 2016. Former No. 4 overall pick Amari Cooper is coming off consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to provide a deep threat for Carr, who has a 126.5 passing rating through two games. Defensive end Khalil Mack leads the defense -- he notched a sack last week to give him a league-best 27 since the start of 2015.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Quarterback Kirk Cousins threw for nearly 5,000 yards last season but is off to a slow start after losing his starting wideouts in free agency and trying to establish a rapport with Terrelle Pryor. Tight end Jordan Reed and starting running back Rob Kelley are both questionable due to injuries, but third-down back Chris Thompson and rookie Samaje Perine filled in nicely for a ground game that produced 229 yards against the Rams. Washington is permitting only 77.5 yards rushing but was gashed for 307 yards through the air by second-year quarterback Carson Wentz in the season opener. Top cornerback Josh Norman injured his shoulder in the victory over the Rams and was limited in Wednesday's practice session.

TRENDS:

* Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September.

* Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.

* Over is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.

* Over is 5-1 in Redskins last 6 games in September.

* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road chalk Raiders at a rate of 72 percent and the Over is picking up 59 percent of the totals action


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

6 most popular picks for Week 3 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Dallas Cowboys, -3, 577

5) Seattle Seahawks, +3, 586- L

4) New Orleans Saints, +5.5, 653- W

3) Kansas City Chiefs, -3, 665- W

2) Denver Broncos, -3, 795- L

1) Oakland Raiders, -3, 924- L

Season record of top 6 picks: 5-12


**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….

Lot of great finishes in the early NFL games Sunday; from 4:00-4:20, there were four games that came right down to the end………good drama.

14) Falcons 30, Lions 26— Detroit appeared to score go-ahead TD with 0:08 left, but he was ruled down a foot short and because of a (bad) rule, there is an automatic 10-second run-off when a replay reversal happens on a play where the clock would’ve kept running, which cost Detroit a chance to win the game on the last play. Very poor rule.

Matt Ryan threw three picks; Falcons are first team this season (1-17) to win when going -2 or worse in turnovers.

13) Eagles 27, Giants 24— Rookie kicker Elliott kicked a 61-yard FG to end a wild 4th quarter; Eagles led 14-0 after three quarters- Giants had gained 206 yards on 44 plays in the first three quarters, but then scored TD’s on first three drives of 4th quarter, gaining 166 yards on only 11 plays.

New York had 14-yard edge in field position; they’re only 2nd team this year to have a 10+-yard advantage in field position but lose (2-13). Giants ran ball 17 times for 49 yards.

12) Bears 23, Steelers 17 OT— Chicago drove 74 yards on four plays to win the game in OT, even though they blew a 17-7 halftime and lead threw for only 84 yards.

This was an odd game; Bears blocked a FG on last play of the first half, they were going to score a TD on the runback, but the selfish jerk with the ball stopped and posed on the 1-yard line and two Steelers stripped him of the ball, which wound up costing the Bears four points.

11) Patriots 36, Texans 33- -New England drove ball 75 yards on 8 plays, scoring GW TD with 0:23 left, saving a lot of people’s survivor pools from extinction.

Houston has to be really happy with rookie QB Watson; they averaged 8.3 yards/pass attempt, outgained Patriots 417-396, so the Texans have found themselves a quarterback.

10) Jaguars 44, Ravens 7— Wow. Jacksonville actually ran a fake punt when they led 37-0; would like to know the backstory there. Total no-show for Baltimore, which was +7 in turnover ratio in its two wins, but they were -3 in this game. Ravens averaged 1.8 yards/pass attempt.

9) Colts 31, Browns 28— Two rookie QB’s started on the road this week; their teams scored 33-28 points, even if both did lose. Kizer threw three picks; Browns were -2 in turnovers; Colts averaged 9.0 yards/pass attempt. Brissett had 200+ passing yards at halftime.

8) Jets 20, Dolphins 6— Jets beat Miami for the 6th straight time; Dolphins didn’t score until the very last play of the game, then missed the PAT, which didn’t matter. Miami was 1-12 on third down, ran ball only 15 times for 30 yards. Jets gained 9.3 yards/pass attempt.

7) Bills 26, Broncos 16— Buffalo had a 16-yard edge in field position; three of their 11 drives started in Denver territory, but they scored only 6 points on those drives. Denver had only one TD on three red zone drives. Impressive win for the Bills. Underdogs were 11-3 vs spread in the games Sunday, and the Falcons (-3) were damn fortunate to cover their game.

6) Saints 34, Panthers 13— Carolina didn’t allow a TD in its first two games, gave up 34 points here. Panthers have scored only three TD’s on 28 drives this season; Newton threw three picks in this game, averaged only 4.2 yards/pass attempt. New Orleans started three drives in Carolina territory, won field position by 13 yards.

5) Vikings 34, Buccaneers 17— Backup QB Case Keenum was 25-33/369 yards, as Vikings beat a flu-ravaged Bucs’ squad. Tampa Bay ran ball only nine times for 26 yards- they had only six 3rd down plays the whole game (1-6), as Winston threw three INTs (-3). 20 of 30 NFL teams went over their individual over/unders this week; offenses are starting to catch up with defenses.

4) Titans 33, Seahawks 27— Tennessee ran 10 plays in the third quarter for 204 yards and three TD’s, breaking open a 9-7 halftime lead. Seattle is 2-5-1 in its last eight regular season road games; Titans ran ball for 195 yards. This was 7th NFL game this year with no turnovers in it; the underdog won four of those seven games.

3) Chiefs 24, Chargers 10— KC’s first two TD drives were 43-34 yards; Rivers threw three picks. Chiefs led 17-10 at the half, then second half was scoreless until Hunt’s 69-yard TD run ended things with 1:49 left. Bolts could just as easily be 3-0, but they scored 10 points in three red zone drives. Last two weeks it was the kicker’s fault; their QB failed them here.

2) Packers 27, Bengals 24 OT— Hard to believe, but Aaron Rodgers is now 1-7 in his career in OT games; that is your Stat of the Day. Bengals led this game 21-7 after a pick-6, second week in row Packers gave up a defensive TD. Green Bay tied game with 0:17 left in regulation. Bengals left it all on the field here, but now they’re 0-3.

1) Redskins 27, Raiders 10- Ugly performance by Oakland: 7 first downs, 0-11 on third down, only one play longer than 11 yards the whole game- they ran ball 13 times for 32 yards, as the Redskins led 14-0 at the half and jogged to an easy win.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 25

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Cowboys at Cardinals
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 46.5)

The optics that resonated from Ezekiel Elliott's lack of effort in chasing down defenders on a pair of interceptions painted a significantly worse picture than that of his career-worst eight-yard rushing performance. The 2016 NFL rushing leader aims to brush off that unattractive look on Monday as the Dallas Cowboys pay a visit to the Arizona Cardinals.

"I would say I was just very frustrated, but that's no excuse for the lack of effort I showed on tape," said Elliott, who was shown with hands on hips and walking in the other direction on one interception while remaining on the ground on another in Dallas' 42-17 loss to Denver last week. Elliott's lack of rushing (from scrimmage) played a significant role in Dak Prescott attempting a career-high 50 passes last week. While the Cowboys struggled on the road last week, the Cardinals are embracing the idea of playing their first home game since a preseason tilt on Aug. 19. "It seemed longer than that, too, but it's just good that we finally get a chance to play in front of our home crowd, on our grass. ... It's been a long four weeks, no doubt," Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer said.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys (-4) - Cardinals (0.5) + home field (-3) = Cowboys -1.5

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 3.5-point road chalk dropping to an even 3 on Monday and hasn’t moved since. The total hit the betting board at 47.5 and has been bet down a full point to 46.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Cowboys - CB Orlando Scandrick (Probable, Hand), QB Dak Prescott (Probable, Ankle), WR Terrance Williams (Questionable, Ankle), DT Stephen Paea (Questionable, Knee), CB Chidobe Awuzie (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Nolan Carroll (Out, Concussion).

Cardinals - LB Deone Bucannon (Probable, Ankle), TE Jermaine Gresham (Probable, Ribs), WR Jaron Brown (Probable, Knee), LB Karlos Dansby (Probable, Hip), WR J.J. Nelson (Questionable, Hamstring), T D.J. Humphries (Questionable, Knee), G Mike Iupati (Questionable, Tricep), WR John Brown (Out, Quadricep).

WEATHER REPORT:

Dome.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Tight end Jason Witten has been the primary beneficiary of Prescott's penchant to air it out this season, with the Dallas quarterback's 89 pass attempts trailing only Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (92). The 35-year-old Witten leads the NFL with 17 receptions through two games and his two receiving scores are tied for second best in the league. Dez Bryant found the end zone last week and scored in each of his last two encounters with Arizona, although the wideout is expected to be shadowed throughout Monday's game by All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson. Orlando Scandrick is on pace to return after a one-game absence because of a broken left hand, perhaps just in time as fellow cornerback Nolan Carroll remains in the NFL's concussion protocol.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Perhaps the comforts of home will alter the fortunes of Palmer, who has thrown just two touchdowns against four interceptions this season and is coming off being sacked four times in Arizona's 16-13 overtime win over Indianapolis. J.J. Nelson stepped up versus the Colts, reeling in five catches for 120 yards with a touchdown en route to being named the NFC Offensive Player of the Week. The need for production from the Cardinals' passing game is underscored by the loss of the versatile David Johnson in the season opener. Veteran Chris Johnson, who showed a burst with 11 carries for 44 yards last week, is expected to receive a bigger workload at the expense of fellow running back Kerwynn Williams.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

* Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.

* Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 Monday games.

* Under is 10-2 in Cardinals last 12 home games.

* Home team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road chalk Cowboys Lions at a rate of 60 percent and the Under is picking up 53 percent of the totals action.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Steelers take early money as road faves in Week 4
Patrick Everson

"The public will be all over Pittsburgh coming off its loss, and the early smart money has been too."

Week 3 of the NFL season was a huge one for the underdogs, who had gone 11-4 ATS heading into the Monday nighter, including seven outright winners. Will the pups keep it up in Week 4? We check in on the opening lines of four matchups, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+2)

These two teams are coming off stunning losses in Week 3, heading into this clash of NFC North rivals at 1 p.m. ET Sunday. Pittsburgh, among the favorites to challenge New England for the AFC title, was on the road for the second time in three weeks and had another substandard showing against a subpar outfit. The Steelers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) lost to Chicago 23-17 in overtime as a 7-point favorite.

It was arguably much worse for Baltimore, especially since the flight home was far longer. The Ravens (2-1 SU and ATS) went to Jacksonville’s second home – London – as a 3-point favorite and left on the very short end of a 44-7 trampling.

“The public doesn’t want to bet on Baltimore. The offense is mundane, and the squares don’t like to bet on good defenses,” Cooley said. “At some point, we’ll probably see some value players get behind a Ravens team that was absolutely embarrassed. The public will be all over Pittsburgh coming off its loss, and the early smart money has been too.”

Indeed, the number bumped to Steelers -2.5 Sunday night.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-8)

New England has played two games at home this season and is fortunate to have split those contests. The Patriots (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got all they could handle from Houston on Sunday, needing a last-minute Tom Brady-to-Brandin Cooks 25-yard touchdown pass to post a 36-33 win as a heavy 13.5-point home chalk.

Carolina lost tight end Greg Olsen to a broken foot in Week 2, and the hits kept coming in Week 3 as Kelvin Benjamin left in the first half with a knee injury. Benjamin’s injury is not thought to be serious, but the Panthers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got drubbed by New Orleans 34-13 as a 5-point home fave.

“We were certainly going to be north of a touchdown, and this one could shoot up sooner rather than later,” Cooley said of the line for Panthers-Pats. “It will be interesting to see if the Panthers can get out of their offensive funk.”

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (no line)

Both these AFC West rivals were road favorites in Week 3 and ended up on the short side, on the scoreboard and for bettors. Oakland (2-1 SU and ATS) had its roll slowed at Washington in a 27-20 loss as a 3.5-point favorite, while Denver (2-1 SU and ATS) – coming off an impressive home win over Dallas – looked unimpressive in a 26-16 loss at Buffalo laying 3.5 points.

Since Oakland was in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu held off on setting a line, though Cooley had an opinion.

“Look for the Broncos to be short chalk at home,” he said. “Denver certainly has a distinct advantage at Mile High, but our ratings have the Raiders a few spots higher in the pecking order.”

Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

Kansas City is looking a lot like the team that went 12-4 SU in the regular season last year. For the second time in three weeks, the Chiefs (3-0 SU and ATS) won and cashed on the road, this time besting the Los Angeles Chargers 24-10 as a 3-point chalk.

Washington (2-1 SU and ATS) also looked plenty sharp in Week 3, knocking off Oakland 27-10 as a 3.5-point home underdog in the Sunday night contest.

“Again, we’ll make sure nothing significant occurs regarding injuries with Washington, but Kansas City will be a healthy favorite regardless,” Cooley said. “The Chiefs look to be one of the best teams in the league early in this season, and bettors are taking notice. We’ll open K.C. as 6- to 7-point chalk.”

Indeed, when the line opened for this Monday night contest it hit the board with the Chiefs installed as 7-point home favorites.

[Udog]

NFL Week 3 betting data with 1 game left:

O/U: 11-4
Home Teams: 11-4 SU & 9-6 ATS
Faves: 8-7 SU & 4-11 ATS
Home dogs: 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS