NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 ( Thur., Sept. 21 - Mon., Sept. 25)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, September 21 - Monday, September 25

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Cowboys open as 3.5-point road favorites at Cardinals
Patrick Everson

Monday Night Football is now in the books and we’re on our way to Week 3 of the NFL season. We check in on the opening lines for four noteworthy games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-12)

New England got a lot of its offensive mojo back in Week 2, but also lost stud tight end Rob Gronkowski to a groin injury, though it’s not considered serious. The Patriots (1-1 SU and ATS) raced out to a 30-13 halftime lead and coasted past New Orleans 36-20 victory Sunday as a 5.5-point road favorite.

Houston (1-1 SU and ATS) also bounced back from a poor season opener, though it has managed just 20 total points over two games. The Texans traveled to Cincinnati for the Thursday nighter and nabbed a 13-9 upset as a 5-point underdog.

“We were forced to inflate this number some, as the public knows well the disparity in these offenses,” Cooley said. “But it will be interesting to see how the Pats handle a top-flight defense, because they didn’t exactly impress against a great Chiefs defense (with Eric Berry) in their opener. Of course on the flip side, Bill Belichick eats rookie quarterbacks for breakfast.”

Early action certainly points to that, as Bookmaker.eu’s opening line of Pats -12 was up to 13 by late Sunday night.

Oakland Raiders at Washington Redskins (+3.5)

Oakland is out of the gate 2-0 SU and ATS as it preps for its second long road trip in the first three weeks, this time for the Sunday night game. The Raiders, who opened with a win at Nashville, drubbed the New York Jets 45-20 Sunday as a healthy 14-point home chalk.

Washington bounced back from a season-opening home loss to Philadelphia by escaping Los Angeles with a 27-20 victory over the Rams as a 3-point road ‘dog.

“I think the Redskins were better represented this week than what they put forth in their opener. That said, this is a very good-looking Raiders squad,” Cooley said. “There’s a reason smart bettors were pouring money on this team to win the Super Bowl during the offseason. Action should lean toward Oakland.”

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)

Dallas got an early-season reality check on its Sunday visit to the Mile High City. In a game delayed an hour during the first half due to lightning, the Cowboys (1-1 SU and ATS) had little thunder on offense or defense, losing to Denver 42-17 laying 2.5 points.

Arizona rebounded from a season-opening setback at Detroit, but just barely. The Cardinals (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) were again on the road and needed overtime to dispatch undermanned Indianapolis 16-13 giving 7 points.

“Dallas’ defense was certainly exposed at Denver, but it’s not as if Arizona has done anything to impress us early in this season,” Cooley said of the Week 3 Monday night contest. “We know the public is going to be all over the Cowboys to bounce back, so expect the line to trend that way.”

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (no line)

Defending NFC champion Atlanta (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) christened its new stadium in style in the Week 2 Sunday nighter. The Falcons jumped all over Green Bay early en route to a 34-23 victory as a 3-point home fave.

Detroit still has some Week 2 work to do, traveling to face the New York Giants tonight, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on posting the line for this Week 3 clash. The Lions opened the year with a 35-23 home win over Arizona as a 2.5-point pup.

“The creation of this line will somewhat be predicated on each team’s performance in Week 2,” Cooley said ahead of Atlanta’s Sunday night victory. “If there aren’t any major injuries on Sunday and Monday night, and nothing looks out of sorts, we’ll look to open the Lions as very small underdogs. And they’ll be live in the eyes of some bettors.”

[Udog]

NFL Week 3 lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmm...” in Week 3, including a rare situation in which the Browns are actually laying chalk on the road in their Sunday matchup against the hapless Colts and it may not be enough.

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+1, 40.5)

Cleveland visits Indianapolis this week in a pairing of 0-2 teams both looking for positive signs.

If there's one thing to notice about each team thus far, Cleveland has been playing with a bit more fire, but certainly has played superior teams as compared to Indianapolis. Why this line stands at a mere -1 is questionable. Expect this line to move into the -2, -2.5 range before this one gets underway.

In a game that will be starving for points (Under 40.5 anyone?), the Browns should dominate this game at the line, as the Colts are certainly not striking fear into anyone’s defensive scheme. Cleveland is supposed to be improving from last season and this is a game they should win. With such a low spread, that’s all you’re asking them to do.

The Colts have looked awful so far against the lowly Rams and gave their second game away with some late horrendous play. It’s not the kind of play that inspires a team to improve the following week. The Colts aren’t looking at this game as a “must-win” game. They know they’re in for a long season, but improvements may be their only catalyst. I see this game as a “must-win” for Cleveland who has some expectations riding along in this one.

If you like the Browns, get this early in the week. If you somehow see a glimmer of hope with the Colts, wait until Sunday for your best number.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-6, 41)

Miami visits the New York on a Sunday home opener for the Jets which may prove to be cringeworthy to watch.

The Dolphins did not have the luxury of having one game in their pockets when they faced the Chargers last week and yet, pulled out the win in Los Angeles shaking off some rust in the meantime. The Jets fell apart defensively against the Raiders in giving up a whopping 45 points and dropping to 0-2 for the season to start.

Usually there’s a good reason for a visiting team to be favored by six points on the road. Either the away team is exceptionally good or the home team is exceptionally not-so-good. I think the latter may be applied here.

Though the standing six is a high price tag to lay at first look, you might just be wondering who will exactly take the Jets even at this level? It's hard to see where New York money is going to come in hard and heavy at post. The most likely scenario will be a slow, steady stream of Dolphin cash which should drive this up to the -6 or -6.5 level before this gets underway. Jump on Miami early as you can and wait if you’re a true believer in New York.

Oakland Raiders at Washington (-3, 54)

On Sunday night, Oakland will be playing at Washington.

If you like the Raiders, we’re blessed to have this spread toeing the key three at his point. This, we know, will translate into a number that won’t move for a while. This line was created with perception over true value. Oddsmakers know the threshold of the betting public and the classic marquee matchup on a Sunday night with the home team as the underdog is a strong draw to casual bettors every time.

Why make the line higher when you can get the same handle right at -3?

The Raiders are playing like they did last year before the Carr injury. Now that’s he’s returned, so has the Oakland swagger. Though this is billed as a high scoring game, most of this should be on the Raiders scoreboard. The key three becomes less a factor the higher the total, when touchdowns reign more than field goals. Oakland has scored 71 points already in two games.
Eventually, this number will probably stay on the -3 with a money line to lay for a while. But you can bet that bookmakers will be very heavy on Oakland when this kicks off. This line deserves to be in the -4 range so there’s value in the favorite here.

[Udog]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 3 NFL lines are going to move

Game to bet on now

Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5)

Smart bettors have already taken advantage in this one. The line opened at Chargers +3.5 in many places, and has been bet down to +2.5 – which means that wagerers might be able to win both ways if the Chiefs wind up winning by a field goal. And that’s very possible. All that aside, Kansas City needs this one to keep pace with Denver and Oakland in the ultra-strong AFC West.

In fact, it’s imperative that the Chiefs avoid any leaks over the next three weeks because of a sadistic five-game (Pittsburgh, Oakland, Denver, Dallas, Giants) gauntlet that stares them in the face stating in mid-October. Now’s the time to take advantage of the Chargers, who are reeling after losing in their home opener to Miami before a lot of empty seats in their first game since moving from San Diego.

Game to wait on

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-13)

Heavy line on this game, the product of the Texans’ poor offensive performance in Cincinnati last Thursday and the Patriots’ 36-point output at New Orleans on Sunday. And also lots of uncertainty, especially considering the Patriots’ mounting injury problems on both sides of the ball. Just when NE seemed to have figured out what to do in Julian Edelman’s absence, other wideouts have gone down, further reducing Tom Brady’s options.

Now comes word that LB/DE Dont’a Hightower (hurt knee in the opener vs. KC) has been seen by Dr. James Andrews – and it’s rarely good when your name and Andrews are mentioned in the same sentence. Might be a good idea to cool on this one until the injury reports are announced and we get some kind of idea what the Pats will have on the field.

Total to watch

Oakland Raiders at Washington (53.5)

It looks like the Raiders are going to have one of their best teams in recent memory just as they get set to jump ship to Las Vegas. The competition (Titans, Jets) hasn’t put up much of a fight, but it’s the NFL and the Raiders have 71 points on the board through two games. Derek Carr is off to a terrific start (5 TD passes and the third-ranked QB) through two games, and Washington has not shown a lot so far this season. Washington is average offensively, but should put some points on the board in what has the look and feel of a high-scoring game unless there are significant weather issues.

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 21

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LA RAMS (1 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 2) - 9/21/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 176-225 ATS (-71.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 176-225 ATS (-71.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-177 ATS (-68.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 137-177 ATS (-57.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in September games since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 24

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BALTIMORE (2 - 0) vs. JACKSONVILLE (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 9:30 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (0 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 2) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 0) at CHICAGO (0 - 2) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 101-71 ATS (+22.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 46-72 ATS (-33.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (1 - 0) at NY JETS (0 - 2) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 70-96 ATS (-35.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (2 - 0) at BUFFALO (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (1 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) at CAROLINA (2 - 0) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 79-55 ATS (+18.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 0) at MINNESOTA (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (2 - 0) at DETROIT (2 - 0) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 130-169 ATS (-55.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (0 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (1 - 1) at TENNESSEE (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 0) at LA CHARGERS (0 - 2) - 9/24/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (0 - 2) at GREEN BAY (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 117-88 ATS (+20.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 117-88 ATS (+20.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 182-127 ATS (+42.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (2 - 0) at WASHINGTON (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 83-113 ATS (-41.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-113 ATS (-41.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-113 ATS (-41.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-31 ATS (-21.1 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 25

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DALLAS (1 - 1) at ARIZONA (1 - 1) - 9/25/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[Udog]

NFL

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 21

9:25 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Los Angeles is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
Los Angeles is 4-13-1 SU in its last 18 games ,when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of San Francisco's last 24 games at home


Sunday, September 24

10:30 AM
BALTIMORE vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore

2:00 PM
DENVER vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

2:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

2:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Cleveland is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

2:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants

2:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games

2:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. DETROIT
Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta

2:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 9 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games

2:00 PM
MIAMI vs. NY JETS
Miami is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games

2:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
New Orleans is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans

5:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. TENNESSEE
Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
Tennessee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle

5:25 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. LOS ANGELES
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing Kansas City

5:25 PM
CINCINNATI vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Green Bay's last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games at home

9:30 PM
OAKLAND vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Washington's last 23 games
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland


Monday, September 25

9:30 PM
DALLAS vs. ARIZONA
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Dallas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Thursday's game
Rams (1-1) @ 49ers (0-2)— SF didn’t score a TD (0 TD, 4 FGA on 23 drives) in first two games. Niners are 9-16 vs spread in last 25 home games; under is 23-10 in their last 33. LA split its first two home games, scoring 66 points, but defense allowed 229 rushing yards in loss to Washington LW. First road game for Rams, who are 2-6 in last eight games vs 49ers- they’re 1-7-1 in last nine visits to Bay Area. LA is 7-2-1 vs spread in last 10 road openers (2-0 when favored). Last four years, Rams are 10-15-1 vs spread on road- since 2011, they’re 1-4 as a road favorite. Under is 16-7-1 in LA’s road games the last three years. Rams’ OC LaFleur, 49ers’ DC Saleh were roommates as grad assistants at Central Michigan; LaFleur worked for coach Shanahan before lot of familiarity.


Sunday's games
Ravens (2-0) vs Jaguars (1-1) (@ London)— Baltimore forced 10 turnovers (+7) in winning first two games vs divisional foes; three of their five TD drives have been 40 or less yards. Ravens’ offense has started 10 drives 75+ yards from goal line, has only one TD, one FG, so their defense has been setting everything up. Jaguars won SU as underdogs in their last two London games; they split first two games this year, with turnovers dominating both games. Jax is 9-7 vs spread in last 16 games as an underdog. Teams split last six meetings; their games the last two years were decided by total of 3 points. Last two years, Ravens are 2-8-1 vs spread as a non-divisional favorite; they host rival Steelers next week.

Browns (0-2) @ Colts (0-2)—Cleveland is a road favorite for just 2nd time in last 4+ years; over last decade, Browns are 5-2 vs spread as a road fave. Last 4+ years, AFC North teams are 10-20 vs spread as road faves. Browns faced Big Ben/Flacco in first two games; they drop way down in class here, facing Colts’ QB Brissett, who is 0-2 as an NFL starter, scoring 0-13 points in those games. Indy lost its first two games, scoring 9-13 points; they scored two TD’s on 25 drives, with 13 3/outs. Rookie QB Kizer got yanked from his first NFL road start; Browns are 5-24 on 3rd down so far this season. Indy is 7-1 vs Browns, with last two wins by total of five points. Cleveland’s only series win was here in 2011. 4 of last 6 series totals were 30 or less.

Steelers (2-0) @ Bears (0-2)— In first two games, Steelers faced rookie QB Kizer, backup QB Keenum; hard to tell much about their defense yet. Steelers are only 8-26 on 3rd down; three of their four TD drives were 75+ yards. Last 2+ years, Pitt is 10-7 vs spread as a road favorite; last 8+ years, they’re 20-13 vs spread vs NFC teams. Last 4+ years, AFC North teams are 10-20 vs spread as road favorites. Chicago turned ball over four times in 29-7 loss in Tampa LW; Bucs’ TD drives were 13-35 yards, plus Tampa defense scored a TD. Pitt has 23 penalties for 221 yards in first two games; they need to clean that up. Steelers lost last two games with Chicago 17-14/40-23; their last win in Chicago was in ’95. How long before rookie QB Trubisky plays for Bears?

Dolphins (1-0) @ Jets (0-2)— Miami is 4-2 vs spread in last six games as a road favorite; they’re 4-11 vs spread in last 15 AFC East road tilts. Jets won last five series games, taking last two played here by 18-21 points. Gang Green won/covered five of last seven home openers. Fish survived their opener in LA last week when Chargers missed last-minute 44-yard FG to win it; Miami kicked FG’s on all three red zone drives, but Cutler was 24-34/225 passing and they didn’t turn ball over. Jets allowed nine TD’s in first two games, with six drives of 77+ yards; opponents are 16-29 on 3rd down. Since 2013, New York is 10-5 vs spread as a home dog; last four years, they’re 8-4 vs spread in AFC East home games.

Broncos (2-0) @ Bills (1-1)— First road game for Denver squad that ran ball for 318 yards, converted 17-30 on 3rd down in pair of home wins. Since 2011, Broncos are 20-10-1 vs spread as a road favorite; they’re 9-4–2 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points. Buffalo allowed only one TD in its first two games; they were held to 176 yards in 9-3 loss in Charlotte LW- they lost field position by 5-10 yards in first two games. Denver won six of last eight series games; last meeting was in 2014. Broncos won three of last four visits here; last one was in ’11. Denver won/covered six of last seven road openers. Last 2+ years, AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 13-3-1 vs spread.

Texans (1-1) @ Patriots (1-1)— These teams practiced together for few days this summer; they do lot of same stuff, Patriots just do it a lot better. Houston passed for only 98 yards in rookie QB Watson’s first NFL start, but he didn’t turn ball over and had a 49-yard TD run, their only TD of game. Texans are 8-11-1 as road underdogs under O’Brien- they’re 4-11 in last 15 non-divisional road games. New England allowed 700 passing yards in winning first two games, but against veteran QB’s; doubtful Watson can exploit that weakness. Patriots won last six series games, hammering Texans 27-0 in game LY that Brady sat out; they then waxed Houston 34-16 in playoffs. Texans are 0-5 in Foxboro, with 13 points the closest of the five games.

Saints (0-2) @ Panthers (2-0)— New Orleans is 0-2 for 4th year in row; loss here makes them 0-3 for 3rd year in row, which is bad for job security. Saints allowed 1,025 total yards, 777 thru air in first two games without forcing a turnover; last 3+ years, they’re 11-5-1 as road underdogs, 5-1 in last six NFC South road games. Panthers won first two games and haven’t allowed a TD yet, but they’ve also faced QB’s Hoyer/Taylor. Brees’ offense is big step up in competition here. Carolina is 7-3 in its last 10 games with the Saints; last three were all decided by 3 points. New Orleans is 1-4 in last five visits to Charlotte, losing here last two years by 5-3 points. Panthers are 15-9-2 vs spread in last 26 games as a home favorite.

Buccaneers (1-0) @ Vikings (1-1)— Bradford’s balky knee (are you surprised?) puts backup QB Keenum (9-16-1 as NFL starter) into spotlight. Minnesota is 14-4 vs spread as a home favorite under Zimmer, 11-1 vs non-division opponents. Under is 10-6 in their last 16 home games. Tampa Bay’s defense was dominant in opening win LW; their two TD drives were only 13-35 yards. Bucs converted 8-15 on 3rd down, forced four turnovers (+3). Bucs won six of last seven series games, winning last three visits here, by 11-4-19 points- teams haven’t met since 2014. Tampa Bay is 8-3 vs spread in last 11 road openers (8-2 in last 10 as a dog in AO’s). Last 3+ years, NFC North home favorites are 29-14-2 vs spread outside their division.

Falcons (2-0) @ Lions (2-0)— Short week for Detroit team that ran ball 59 times in first couple games, as they try to take some stress off QB Stafford. Since 2011, Lions are 2-8-1 as a home underdog; they’re 15-31 on 3rd down this season and scored TD on either defense/special teams in both games. Falcons are 4-4 as road favorites under Quinn; they threw ball for 9.6/7.2 ypp in first two games. Atlanta is +13 in turnovers in its last 18 regular season games. Under is 14-9 in their last 23 road games. Over is 24-17 in Detroit’s last 41 home games. Atlanta won three of last four games with Detroit; their last meeting was a 22-21 Lion win in England three years ago. Falcons won three of last four visits to the Motor City.

Giants (0-2) @ Eagles (1-1)— Giants scored one TD on 19 drives in losing its first two games by 16-14 points- they’ve run ball 30 times for 97 yards this season. Big Blue is 3-6-1 in last 10 NFC East road games, 5-9-2 in last 16 games as a road underdog, 1-3-1 under McAdoo. Philly is 13-4 in last 17 series games, 5-1 in last six; Giants lost last three visits here by combined score of 78-26. Iggles are 6-3 in last nine home openers. Philly was favored in only 2 of 8 home games LY; they’re since 2012, they’re 12-15-1 as a home favorite (1-1 under Pederson). Eagles are 5-9-1 in last 15 NFC East home games- they ran ball 17 times LW, dropped back to pass 52 times- they need more balance. Under is 10-6 in Eagles’ last 16 home games.

Seahawks (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)— Seattle scored 10 or fewer points in five of their last nine road games; since 2011, they’re 11-5-5 as a road underdog. Seahawks scored only one TD in two games this year, then they missed the PAT after that one, but they also held Packers to 17 points, so the defense is still very potent. Tennessee ran ball for 179 yards LW in easy win in Jacksonville; Since 2013, Titans are 5-9-1 as a home favorite, they’re 1-5 in last six games as a non-divisional home fave; over is 9-6-2 in their last 17 home games. Seahawks won six of last seven series games; this is their first visits to Nashville since ’05. Under is 10-7 in Seattle’s last 17 road games. Last 4+ years, NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 14-28-4 against the spread.

Chiefs (2-0) @ Chargers (0-2)— Chargers lost first two games when they missed FG’s in last minute of both games; Bolts are 0-6-1 vs spread in last seven games overall- they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight games as a home underdog. Chargers ran ball for only 108 yards on 36 carries in first two games; over last decade, LA is 1-6 as a home dog in divisional games. Kansas City threw for 584 yards in winning first two games; they scored 25-21 points just in second half the last two weeks. Chiefs are 11-2 as a road favorite under Reid- they’re 10-2 vs spread in AFC West road games the last four years. Chiefs won last six series games, winning last three visits to San Diego, by 3-30-10 points. Over is 9-6-1 in Chiefs’ last 16 road games.

Bengals (0-2) @ Packers (1-1)— Cincy is first NFL team since 1939 Eagles to start season wth two home games and not score TD in either one- they had extra time to prep after Thursday nite loss to Houston and its rookie QB- now they visit Rodgers/Packers, who are coming off bad loss in Atlanta. Green Bay is 5-6 vs spread the last two years when they’re coming off a loss- they have injury issues on offensive line. Packers are 5-2-1 in last eight games as a home favorite. Under is 12-5 in their last 17 home games. Bengals won last three games vs Packers by 7-7-4 points; they’re 3-4 in Wisconsin, but 2 of 3 wins came in Milwaukee, not Lambeau Field- they’re 1-4 in Green Bay. Cincy is 6-2-1 in last nine road openers.

Raiders (2-0) @ Redskins (1-1)— Oakland is 4-1 as a road favorite under Del Rio; they won first two games this year by 10-25 points, scoring nine TD’s on 19 drives. Raiders are just 7-13 vs spread in last 20 games vs NFC teams. Washington allowed 538 passing yards in splitting first two games; they blew 13-0 lead in LA last week, but scored in last 2:00 to even their record. Redskins are 5-2 in last seven games as a home underdog— over is 7-2 in their last nine home games. Road team won last six series games; Raiders won last three visits here by 1-12-3 points- Redskins’ last home series win was in 1986. Oakland hasn’t turned ball over yet in ‘17; they averaged 7.4/8.2 yards/pass attempt in their two games this season.


Monday's game
Cowboys (1-1) @ Cardinals (1-1)— Arizona is a home underdog for first time in three years; they’re 4-2 as home dog under Arians. Redbirds scored three TD’s, turned ball over five times on 24 drives this year. Under is 14-9-1 in their last 24 home games. Dallas got squashed LW in Denver, giving up 178 yards on ground, 202 in air. Under is 13-4 in their last 17 road games. Cowboys are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 games as a road favorite. Arizona won last four series games, with three wins by one point or in OT; Dallas lost its last three visits here- their last win in the desert was in 2006. Redbirds won/covered three of last four home openers. Last 3+ years, NFC East non-divisional road favorites are 13-5 vs spread outside their division.

2017 week-by-week results
HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 5-5 3-2 4-11 1-0N
2) 6-6 2-2 6-9-1 3-2A

T) 11-11 5-4 10-20-1 3-3

[Udog]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends for Week 3

— Green Bay is 15-7-2 vs spread in their last 24 games.

— Falcons are 9-19 in their last 28 games as a favorite.

— Colts covered 11 of last 13 tries as a home underdog.

— Kansas City covered seven of its last eight games.

— Saints covered eight of last ten as a home underdog.

— Cardinals are 3-10 vs spread in their last 13 games.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

Thursday, September 21

LA Rams @ San Francisco

Game 301-302
September 21, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
120.863
San Francisco
124.279
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 3 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 2 1/2
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+2 1/2); Over


Sunday, September 24

Baltimore @ Jacksonville

Game 461-462
September 24, 2017 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
130.166
Jacksonville
134.392
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 4
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 4
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+4); Over

Cleveland @ Indianapolis

Game 463-464
September 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
129.088
Indianapolis
125.575
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 3 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 1
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-1); Under

Pittsburgh @ Chicago

Game 465-466
September 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.086
Chicago
125.676
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 11 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7
44
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-7); Under

Miami @ NY Jets

Game 467-468
September 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
128.937
NY Jets
121.657
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 7 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 6
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-6); Over

Denver @ Buffalo

Game 469-470
September 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
138.199
Buffalo
130.683
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 7 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3
40
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-3); Over

Houston @ New England

Game 471-472
September 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
127.961
New England
146.449
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 18 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 13
44
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-13); Under

New Orleans @ Carolina

Game 473-474
September 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
129.184
Carolina
136.705
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 8 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 6
47
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-6); Under

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

Game 475-476
September 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
135.452
Minnesota
132.857
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
N/A

Atlanta @ Detroit

Game 477-478
September 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
138.479
Detroit
141.544
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 3
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+3); Under

NY Giants @ Philadelphia

Game 479-480
September 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
127.180
Philadelphia
139.695
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 12 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 5 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-5 1/2); Over

Seattle @ Tennessee

Game 471-482
September 24, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
130.574
Tennessee
136.187
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 5 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-2 1/2); Over

Kansas City @ LA Chargers

Game 483-484
September 24, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
143.188
LA Chargers
130.243
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 13
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3
47
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-3); Over

Cincinnati @ Green Bay

Game 485-486
September 24, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
126.479
Green Bay
139.706
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 13
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 8 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-8 1/2); Over

Oakland @ Washington

Game 487-488
September 24, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
133.381
Washington
133.337
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
Even
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 3 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+3 1/2); Under


Monday, September 25

Dallas @ Arizona

Game 489-490
September 25, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
131.615
Arizona
134.166
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 2 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+3 1/2); Under

[Udog]

Armadillo's write-up has updated in reply #7.

[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, September 21

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Rams at 49ers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+2, 39.5)

A pair of rookie head coaches will square off for the first time when the San Francisco 49ers host the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night in a matchup of longtime NFC West rivals. San Francisco has yet to find the end zone through its first two games, but has won three in a row in the series, including a season sweep against the Rams in 2016.

Although the 49ers acquitted themselves well in a three-point loss at Seattle last week, they have been limited to four field goals under coach Kyle Shanahan, marking the first time in franchise history they haven't scored a touchdown in the opening two games. "I don't think there are any moral victories in the NFL, especially with the way I played," San Francisco quarterback Brian Hoyer said in the wake of the 12-9 defeat to the Seahawks. The Rams were denied a possible 2-0 start under coach Sean McVay after surrendering a late touchdown in a 27-20 setback to the Washington Redskins on Sunday. Los Angeles had the second-worst passing game in the league last season -- behind only San Francisco -- and averaged an NFL-low 14.0 points, but it has amassed 86 points during its 1-1 start.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Rams (+6.5) - 49ers (+7) + home field (-3) = 49ers -2.5

LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened the week as 2.5-point road favorites but by Wednesday morning that number was down to 2. The total hit the betting boards at 42 and has been bet all of the way down to 39.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Rams - RB M. Brown (Questionable, Hamstring), TE G. Everett (Questionable, Thigh), CB K. Webster (Questionable, Shoulder), CB T. Johnson (Questionable, Leg), WR M. Thomas (Out, Suspension), TE T. Hemingway (I-R, Shin), RB L. Dunbar (Out, Knee), WR B. Marquez (I-R, Knee), DT D. Easley (I-R, Knee).

49ers - TE G. Kittle (Questionable, Hip), J. Tartt (Questionable, Neck), DB J. Ward (Questionable, Hamstring), S E. Reid (Out, Knee), LB R. Foster (Out, Ankle), G J. Garnett (I-R, Knee), DB D. Jones (I-R, Knee), RB J. Williams (I-R, Ankle), DL R. Blair III (I-R, Thumb), WR A. Burbridge (I-R, Hamstring), DL C. Jones (I-R, Undisclosed), LB D. Newsom (I-R, Concussion), S C. James (I-R, Knee), LB M. Smith (I-R, Pectoral), LB J. Gilbert (I-R, Knee), WR B. Johnson III (I-R, Hamstring).

ABOUT THE RAMS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): The semblance of a passing game has provided a boost for third-year back Todd Gurley, who along with Kansas City rookie Kareem Hunt are the only players to amass more than 100 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving. Quarterback Jared Goff, the No. 1 overall pick a year ago, was not as sharp as his performance in the season opener but did rally Los Angeles from a pair of double-digit deficits to forge a fourth-quarter tie on Sunday. Sammy Watkins and rookie Cooper Kupp each have seven catches through the first two games to tie for the team lead. Stud defensive tackle Aaron Donald had a quiet debut after returning from a contract dispute but vowed to be better against San Francisco.

ABOUT THE 49ers (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U): Running back Carlos Hyde is coming off a huge game in Seattle, rushing for 124 yards on only 15 carries while ripping off runs of 61 and 27 yards. Given the state of San Francisco's passing game, expect Shanahan to lean heavily on Hyde, who rambled for 88 yards and a pair of touchdowns to carry the 49ers to a 28-0 rout of the Rams in the 2016 season opener. Journeyman Hoyer, playing with his fourth different team in four seasons, needs to rebound from a wretched performance in Seattle when he managed only 99 yards and an interception on 15-of-27 passing. Wideout Pierre Garcon has a team-leading nine receptions, but the 49ers are dealing with myriad injuries in their defensive backfield.

TRENDS:

* Rams are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games overall.
* Under is 21-8 in 49ers last 29 home games.
* Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Francisco.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road favorite Rams at a rate of 73 percent and the Under is picking up 66 percent of the totals action.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends for Week 3

— Chargers are 0-6-1 vs spread in their last seven games.

— Buccaneers are 6-2 in last eight games as a road underdog.

— New Orleans is 8-2 in its last ten games as a road underdog.

— Patriots are 14-4 vs spread in their last 18 games.

— Jets are 8-2 in last ten games as a home dog vs AFC East foes.

— Washington is 15-6 vs spread in its last 21 games.

[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3
Monty Andrews

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-5.5, 48)

Saints third-down D problems vs. Panthers' drive extension skills

The Panthers have been the toughest team to score against through two games - but that hot defensive start will be put to the test this weekend as they host a Saints team that is winless so far, but can still put points on the board. Yet, while the main focus will be on whether Drew Brees can generate enough offense to offset the Saints' struggling defense, the Panthers will look to exploit what could be a major advantage: third-down production.

Not much has gone right for the New Orleans defense so far, as it has allowed a whopping 65 points in losses to the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots. You could probably identify several problem areas here, but one of the most significant is the Saints' inability to force teams into fourth-down situations, allowing foes to convert on third down 57.7 percent of the time - the worst rate in football. New England ranked 27th in the category last season, so this trend isn't a new one.

What is new, however, is Carolina's ability to extend drives. Cam Newton and the Panthers' offense was an efficient 7-of-13 in third-down situations in a season-opening win over the San Francisco 49ers, and despite doing little with the football in a 9-3 triumph over Buffalo in Week 2, Carolina was still a solid 7-of-16 on third down. While this might not last - the Panthers converted just 37.2 percent on third downs last season - it should at least continue through this week against a leaky Saints D.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (+7.5, 45.5)

Steelers' rushing troubles vs. Bears' stout run D

The Steelers are off to a 2-0 start and are heavily favored to remain unbeaten after this weekend as they visit a Bears team that has been outscored 52-24 in consecutive losses to open the season. Yet, while Pittsburgh has considerable advantages in several key areas, there is a chance the Bears could make things a little more even - though this mismatch Chicago enjoys might be more of a two-week aberration than a potential season-long trend.

After struggling to run the football in a narrow Week 1 triumph over the Cleveland Browns, it was thought that Steelers star running back Le'Veon Bell was simply working his way back into game shape. But Pittsburgh didn't fare much better in Week 2 versus the Minnesota Vikings, as Bell needed 27 carries to record 87 yards on the ground. The Steelers average an NFL-worst 2.8 yards per carry, and with the Pittsburgh offense far less prolific on the road than at home, there's reason for concern this week.

Chicago has had it rough, with quarterback Mike Glennon looking abysmal and the receiving corps absolutely decimated by injury. But the Bears' defense has actually been better than the point differential might suggest - particularly on the ground. Chicago is allowing a scant 3.2 YPC, tied for the ninth-lowest rate in the league. The Bears can't hope to keep Bell completely contained, but minimizing his impact could give the home side a chance at victory.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 43.5)

Giants' secondary struggles vs. Eagles' pass-heavy approach

Fans who like to see footballs flying through the air should be in for a real treat Sunday as the Giants and Eagles renew hostilities in an NFC East showdown. The Giants are off to an 0-2 start and have scored a paltry 13 points in the process, while the Eagles have split a pair of games to open the campaign and haven't been shy about airing it out. That should work in their favor this weekend, with New York's secondary struggling to make an impact.

Much was made about the Giants' attempts to fix their defense in the offseason, but the results through two games have been rough. New York comes into Week 3 action as one of nine teams without an interception, and its four sacks rank in the lower half league-wide. In a two-week stretch that has seen passing yards way down across the NFL, the Giants have allowed opposing QBs to post a 100.0 combined passer rating - good for 26th overall.

QB Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia pass attack has already seen dramatic improvement over last season - boasting a QB rating 10 points higher than their 2016 figure so far - and haven't been shy about challenging opposing secondaries. Philadelphia has thrown the ball on 69.4 percent of its total offensive plays, the fourth-highest rate in the league and a 10-percent bump over last season. With the Giants sitting first at 72.2 percent, the ball will be flying - and that benefits the Eagles.

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-9, 44.5)

Bengals' bad TOP numbers vs. Packers' elite clock control

The Bengals are off to such a terrible offensive start, they've already replaced their offensive coordinator. Whether that will be enough to stem the tide is the only question in Cincinnati fans' minds as the 0-2 Bengals travel to Lambeau Field for a date with the 1-1 Packers. For Cincinnati to improve on the nine points it has scored through two games, it will need to do a batter job controlling the clock - something Green Bay has done tremendously well so far.

A lot of factors go into time of possession, so there are plenty of reasons why the Bengals rank 27th in the category at 26:52 per game. Cincinnati has converted just eight of its 27 third-down opportunities into first downs, so far, while its 13 first downs per game rank ahead of only San Francisco. The Bengals have also generated just 4.3 yards per play, good for 29th overall. Simply put, QB Andy Dalton hasn't been able to do much of anything - and that means less time with the football.

The Packers, on the other hand, have done an exquisite job of controlling the clock. After holding the ball for more than 39 minutes of a season-opening 17-9 win over Seattle, QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense had the ball for 31:23 but ultimately dropped a 34-23 decision to the quick-striking Falcons. With Jordy Nelson questionable (and expected to be limited if he does play), Rodgers will have to rely even more on short passes and a vaunted run game - and that's bad news for the Bengals.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

6 most popular picks for Week 3 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Dallas Cowboys, -3, 577

5) Seattle Seahawks, +3, 586

4) New Orleans Saints, +5.5, 653

3) Kansas City Chiefs, -3, 665

2) Denver Broncos, -3, 795

1) Oakland Raiders, -3, 924

Season record of top 6 picks: 3-9

[Udog]

Essential Week 3 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 39.5)

This is the fifth consecutive year the Jags will be playing a “home” game in London. Jacksonville has played more games in London than any other NFL franchise and it is considering building a training facility near Wembley Stadium in London.

The Jags are 2-2 straight up and against the spread in their four previous games in London but are 2-0 SU and ATS in the last two years. This will be the Ravens' first game in London.

LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened up as large as 4.5-point chalk but are now giving 3.5 points at just about all sportsbooks. The total has been bet down from 40 to 39.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between these two clubs.
*The Jags are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (+3, 40)

Buffalo finished with the best running attack in the league in 2016 and were off to a good start after Week 1. But last week the Bills rushed for 69 yards on 23 carries against the Carolina Panthers. All 69 of those yards came after first contact too, according to ESPN Stats and Info. Not a great showing for the Bills O-line.

The Broncos own the third best running defense and are fresh off holding Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott to eight yards on nine carries.

LINE HISTORY: This line opened as low as Broncos -1.5 but most shops now have the Bills getting a full field goal. The total is holding steady at 40 points.

TRENDS:

*The Broncos are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games in September.
*The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-5.5, 46.5)

Sam Bradford won the NFC offensive player of the week award in Week 1 and Tom Brady won the AFC version in Week 2. Both players’ award-winning performances came against New Orleans.

The Saints own the worst defense in the NFL and could be without two of their top three cornerbacks (Marshon Lattimore and Sterling Moore) against the Panthers.

LINE HISTORY: The total opened as high as 49 offshore but is now down to 46.5 pretty much across the board. The Panthers opened as 6.5-point faves but the number has dropped to 6 and 5.5.

TRENDS:

*The Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games against Carolina.
* The Under is 5-0-1 in the Panthers’ last six games overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (+7, 44)

The Chicago Bears could have some key players back in their lineup in Week 3. Guard Kyle Long is the team’s best offensive lineman but he’s been out of action since late last season with an ankle injury. He’s been cleared to play by the club’s medical team and could start against the Steelers.

Cornerback Prince Amukamara is expected to make his Bears debut this weekend as is former Steelers wideout Markus Wheaton.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Steelers as 7.5 to 8-point chalk. A few offshore shops have moved it down to the key number (Pitt -7). The total opened as high as 46 and can be found as low as 44 entering the weekend.

TRENDS:

*The Steelers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
*The Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in September.

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)

If you like the Lions to win this game outright, you might want to consider placing a bet on Matthew Stafford to win NFL MVP right now. Multiple offshore books, including Sportsbook.com, lowered Stafford’s MVP odds to 5/1 behind only Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.

Bet365.com and a few other shops still have Stafford in the 40/1 range but that price won’t remain if the Lions improve to 3-0.

LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened with the Falcons laying 3.5 points but every sportsbook is now at the field goal spread. The total has been bet up from 49 to 50.5.

TRENDS:

*The Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records.
*The Under is 10-3 in Detroit’s last 13 games overall.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 41)

Sam Bradford is practicing but bettors won’t know if the former Heisman winner will start for the Vikings until the hours before kickoff on Sunday. Case Keenum will get the start under center for a second straight week if Bradford’s knee doesn’t cooperate.

Keenum won and covered the spread against the Bucs in 2016 and 2015 as the starting quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams.

LINE HISTORY: Most books are still waiting to hear definitively on Bradford before releasing their odds. SportsInteraction.com opened with the visiting Bucs getting 1.5 points and the line moved up to Bucs +2 only a few hours later.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 6-1-1 in Tampa’s last eight games overall.
*The Bucs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Vikings.

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5, 41)

The Browns are in the unusual position of being the betting favorite in an NFL game. It ends a 21-game underdog streak for the franchise. Cleveland hasn’t been chalk since Week 14 of the 2015 campaign when it won and covered as a 2.5-point fave against the 49ers.

Dating back to Week 12 of the 2013 season, the Browns are 2-7-1 ATS in games they were favored.

LINE HISTORY: Just about all shops opened at Colts +1 and that’s when the line still stands heading into the weekend. The total remains around the opening number of 40.5.

TRENDS:

*The Browns are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games.
*The Under is 6-0 in the Colts’ last six home games.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+6, 43)

Miami is in the middle of its season from hell in terms of travel itinerary.

The Dolphins’ Week 1 home game against the Bucs was postponed to their bye week because of Hurricane Irma. They practiced in California before playing the Rams in Los Angeles then returned to Miami and will fly out to New York this weekend. After the game, they’ll prep for their trip to London to “host” the Saints at Wembley.

That’s a lot of air miles racked up over a few weeks.

LINE HISTORY: This game opened at Jets +6 and that’s where the line still sits. The total has been bet up from 41 to 43.

TRENDS:

*The road team is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 games between this two sides.
*The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-14, 44)

Texans QB Deshaun Watson is trying to become the first rookie to beat the Patriots at home since Bill Belichick came in 2000. First-year signal callers are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS playing at Foxoborough with a collective five TD passes against 16 interceptions and a 50.7 passer rating.

Houston has been outscored 88-22 in its three games against the Patriots under head coach Bill O’Brien. New England won and covered in all of those games.

LINE HISTORY: Bookmakers might have underestimated the public’s support behind the Patriots. New England opened as a 12.5-point fave and is now giving 14 points at most shops. The total has been bet up from 43.5 to 44.5.

TRENDS:

*The Texans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Pats and 0-5 in their last five trips to New England.

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 42.5)

The Seahawks are one of the biggest early season disappointments for bettors – which explains the why they’re getting 2.5 points on the road against Tennessee. The Seahawks scored just one touchdown, they’re 26th in 1st downs per game (16.5) and they’re 29th in yards per play at 4.2.

LINE HISTORY: Most books opened with the Titans giving two points and the line is up to Titans -2.5. The total can be found around 42.5.

TRENDS:

*Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its last five away games.
*The Titans are 7-22-2 ATS in their last 31 home games.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 42.5)

Things are deteriorating quickly for the Giants. The two people at the top of the team’s totem pole – QB Eli Manning and head coach Ben McAdoo – don’t seem to be on the same page, and both are the two people chiefly responsible for an ineffective offense.

McAdoo really dressed down Manning after Monday night’s home loss to the Detroit Lions.

The G-Men haven’t scored more than one offensive touchdown since Week 15 of last season.

LINE HISTORY: The Wynn and Westgate opened Eagles -4.5 and -3.5 respectively. Both books adjusted quickly to early action on the Eagles and bumped the line up to 5.5. The total is staying steady between 42.5 and 43.

TRENDS:

*The Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Eagles.
*The Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two sides at Philly.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+3, 47.5)

The books are letting you take the Chargers are +3 but you might as well as not bet them unless you think they can best the Chiefs by nine points or more. You see, the Bolts stink in close games.

The Chargers are 4-18 SU in one-score games since the start of the 2015 campaign. Their new kicker isn’t helping matters. Youngshoe Koo has missed three of his four field goal attempts this season including the potential game-winning kick against the Dolphins last week.

LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened at 2.5 but just about all locations list the Chiefs as 3-point chalk. The total is sitting at 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The Chiefs are 7-0 in their last seven road games.
*The Chargers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-9, 46.5)

The Bengals did the only thing you can do when your team hasn’t found paydirt after two full games. They fired their offensive coordinator.

Will new OC Bill Lazor make a difference? Well, in his only two years as an offensive coordinator in the NFL, he led a middle of the pack offense in 2014 with the Dolphins and then got dumped after the offense dipped drastically the following year.

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as 9-point favorites and have been bet up to -9.5. The total is holding at 45 points.

Oakland Raiders at Washington Redskins (+3, 54.5)

There are a lot of positive changes going on for the Oakland Raiders and fewer whistles from the zebras is a big one. The Raiders are averaging seven penalties per game this season. Last season they had a league-high 9.1 penalties per game and they were the third worst in 2015 at 8.7 penalties against per game.

Might not sound like a huge difference but two fewer whistles can mean the difference between a scoring drive and a punt.

LINE HISTORY: There are already some shops offering 3.5 points a half point higher than the opening field goal spread. Bettors should expect the line to grow as more action comes in on the Raiders leading up to kick off.

TRENDS:

*The Raiders are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
*The Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against winning teams.