NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 ( Thur., Sept. 7 - Mon., Sept. 11)

[Udog]

NFL Underdogs: Week 1 pointspread picks and predictions
Jason Logan

I do not travel well.

It’s not that I get sick on airplanes or lose my luggage or anything. My body has a hard time adjusting to time changes. Case in point: I’m in Las Vegas for Week 1 of NFL, which is a 3-hour time difference from my usual clock on Eastern time.

Three hours doesn’t seem like a lot (I’m not in Tokyo or New Zealand) but when your kids consistently wake you up at 6 a.m. ET every day (they need their sunrise pancake/Paw Patrol fix), your body clock has you “up and at ‘em” at 3 a.m. PT Vegas time. Toss in that our head office is on Atlantic Time (4-hour difference from Vegas) and my phone and email start buzzing at 4:30 a.m. like a toddler on Christmas morning. There's no getting back to sleep.

As of this writing, my sleep debt is in the red more than NFL TV ratings. But at least I travel better than the Carolina Panthers. Going back to 2011, when Cam Newton took over under center, the Panthers are 4-6 SU and 4-5-1 ATS when playing out west (either PT or MT). That's where they open the 2017 schedule, at San Francisco as 5.5-point road chalk.

Carolina was especially wiped on the left side of the country in 2016, when it finished 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS. That was part of a season-long Super Bowl hangover that resulted in a 6-10 record with an equally-gross 6-9-1 ATS mark. Even before last season’s shart, the Panthers weren’t great travelers and have been a liability when giving the points on the road. Carolina is just 8-12-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2011.

San Francisco is looking forward to putting the Chip Kelly/Jim Tomsula dark ages behind them and the fog seems to have lifted in the Bay Area with Kyle Shanahan at the wheel. While he’s known more for his offensive play calling, I believe this Niners defense is better than advertised. A pick here, a sack there, and sprinkle in a special teams touchdown, and I’ll sleep a little better after going for gold with the 49ers in Week 1.

Pick: San Francisco +5.5

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (-3, 50.5)

Las Vegas was already a Raiders town. Every Sunday, the sportsbooks were lined with Silver and Black. And now that Oakland is swapping spots for Sin City in three years, there's a hometown push for the Raiders in the middle of the desert. That’s made them the most public play of Week 1.

But despite that public money, the line is swinging the other way with sharp action all over Tennessee. The Titans have jumped from +1.5 to 3-point home favorites for this opener, and I understand why. I understand, but I don’t agree with it.

Tennessee is everyone's "Sleeper Pick" for 2017 but looked like crap in the preseason (I know, I know. Preseason), more notably the starters in limited run. Marcus Mariota wasn’t sharp in exhibition play, completing 12-of-21 passes in the Week 3 preseason game versus Chicago, and was a beat behind his offense. I see this bleeding over into Week 1, leaving the Titans short against a very explosive Oakland scoring attack.

People love to fade the public, but at a field goal, I’m now just one of the tens of thousands of bettors cheering for the Las Vegas… excuse me… Oakland Raiders Sunday.

Pick: Oakland +3

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-8.5, 40)

I missed the Jets at +9 and +9.5 but I’m grabbing them at +8.5 against the Patriots Sunday.

Wait. What’s that you say? The Jets are playing the Bills in Week 1? Not New England?

Sorry, at first glance this spread looks ready made for a classic Jets-Pats AFC East shit kicking. But upon further inspection, it seems the betting public feels the same way about Gang Green as my 12-year-old son does about garbage day: it stinks and he wants to pretend it doesn’t exist (Note to self: remind the boy to take the trash out while I’m away).

The Bills were giving as many as 9.5 points to the Jets. The same Bills team that is under a new head coach. The same Bills team that flooded news wires this summer with a flood of trades and moves, and should have as much cohesion as an NFL-led investigation. And the same Bills team whose QB is one good smack away from being back in concussion protocol.

The Jets will be bad. But the Bills won’t be great.

Pick: New York +8.5

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Top six picks in the Week 1 of the Westgate SuperContest in Las Vegas:

6) Pittsburgh Steelers -8.5 , 706- L
5) Arizona Cardinals -2, 742- L
4) Atlanta Falcons -6.5, 819- L
3) Tennessee Titans -2.5, 839- L
2) Houston Texans -5, 863- L
1) Cincinnati Bengals -2.5, 866- L

(Season record: 0-6)


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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Chiefs 42, Patriots 27— Chiefs scored 28 second half points, ran up 537 yards, offsetting 139 penalty yards, as they made New England’s defense look slow. Only one of KC’s six TD drives was less than 75 yards- they had touchdown PLAYS of 75, 78 yards. Surprising result, but last three times New England lost in Week 1, they won the Super Bowl that year.

Bills 21, Jets 12— Buffalo sits alone atop AFC East, holding Jets to 38 rushing yards and 11 first downs. As far as team points over/unders go, my new hobby here, under is 18-7-1— only 7 of 26 teams exceeded their over/under points so far this week. Jets’ total was 15.5, 1.5 points lower than any other team this week.

Falcons 23, Bears 17— Chicago had ball on 10-yard line when game ended; two passes were either dropped/broken up inside 2-yard line in last three plays. Falcons coach Quinn was VERY happy when this game ended and he let it show— not sure happy is right word, maybe total relief after that Super Bowl and then an 0-4 preseason.

Jaguars 29, Texans 7— Upset of Day. Jacksonville ran ball for 155 yards, were +4 in turnovers, and held QB-challenged Houston to 203 yards. Savage was awful in first half; rookie QB Watson played second half, led one TD drive, but this was another very disappointing day in Houston.

Eagles 30, Redskins 17— Philly’s two TD drives were only 56-39 yards; each team scored a defensive TD, as Eagles snapped a 5-game skid against Washington. Iggles converted 8-14 on 3rd down, Redskins only 3-14, as Philly scored TD’s on two of first four drives, then kicked three FG’s on their last six drives.

Lions 35, Cardinals 23— On their first nine drives, Detroit had one TD, one FG, gaining total of 182 yards, but on their last three drives, Lions ran 17 plays for 149 yards and three TD’s. I have a question: is conditioning a factor early in the season? Teams haven’t played full games because coaches are scared of injuries, so when they have to play a full game in Week 1, are some teams in worse shape than others? Arizona’s defense looked very tired at the end.

Raiders 26, Titans 16— One of two games this week (Atl-Chi) with no turnovers. For the week so far, home teams are 7-6 vs spread; over is 3-10. Listening to TV Sunday, the consensus is that the defenses are ahead of offenses in the first couple weeks of the season. Offense takes more precision. Titans were 7-14 on 3rd down but scored only one TD, kicked three FG’s.

Ravens 20, Bengals 0— Baltimore led 3-0 at 2:00 warning of first half, then scored two TD’s in 0:24 span to break game open and lead 17-0 at half. Total yardage in lackluster game was 268-221 Baltimore; Ravens had 85 penalty yards, while Bengals turned ball over five times (-4). Flacco was 9-17/111 passing, after missing just about the whole summer with a bad back.

Steelers 21, Browns 18— Cleveland is now 1-18 in Week 1, with only win 13 years ago. Steelers blocked punt for TD on Browns’ first drive, then survived 144 penalty yards to win their opener. Pittsburgh ran 17 times for only 35 yards, which is not good; Big Ben targeted Brown 11 times, and he caught all 11 passes for 182 yards.

Rams 46, Colts 9— Indy has severe QB issues; if Andrew Luck can’t come back soon, and he hasn’t started practicing yet, they should sign Colin Kaepernick, who is way better than either Tolzien or Brissett. As for the Rams, this was a great day; Jared Goff looked like an NFL QB and the defense was dominant, even without Aaron Donald.

Packers 17, Seahawks 9— Game was scoreless until just before the half; this was 5th time in Seattle’s last nine road games that they scored 10 or less points. Rodgers was a magician on third down (9-16), as usual; Green Bay held Seahawks to 12 first downs as Seattle lost its 8th game in a row at Lambeau Field.

Panthers 23, 49ers 3— Hard to tell much about Carolina’s offense; their two TD drives were only 42-28 yards. Total yardage was 287-217; Panthers were 7-13 on third down- they didn’t score on any of their drives that started 75+ yards from the goal line, but scored two TD’s, kicked three FG’s on the other five drives that started less than 75 yards from the goal line.

Cowboys 19, Giants 3— Dallas outgained Giants 392-233; New York ran ball only 12 times for 35 yards, converted only 4-12 on third down- their average starting field position was their own 16 yard line. Under is now 8-1 in Giants’ last nine road games; they are 5-10-2 vs spread in last 17 games as a road underdog. Cowboys converted 8-15 on third down, had a 13-yard edge in average starting field position.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 11

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: New Orleans at Minnesota
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New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 48)

Adrian Peterson may have served as the face of the Minnesota Vikings' franchise for the majority of his 10-year career, but the 2012 NFL MVP plans to show his now-former team that he has plenty left in the tank. Peterson brings his new club, the New Orleans Saints, into U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday night for its season opener against the Vikings.

"Of course I want to stick it to them. I want to stick it to everyone we play," the 32-year-old Peterson told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. "But going back to Minnesota, playing the Vikings? Yeah, I want to stick it to them." That plan of attack likely will go through quarterback Drew Brees (NFL-best 5,208 passing yards in 2016), who looks to keep New Orleans' top-ranked total offense (426.0 yards per game) in gear with second-year wideout Michael Thomas aiming to take the next step in the wake of the offseason departure of Brandin Cooks (New England). Minnesota boasted five Pro Bowl selections on its defense that ranked third in the league last season in yards allowed per game (314.9). "It makes it more interesting once he bounces it outside or catches the ball," Pro Bowl cornerback Xavier Rhodes told the newspaper. "You have that extra adrenaline, whatever you want to call it, if you can stop him so you can talk trash later on that day."

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-0.5) - Vikings (-0.5) + home field (-3) = Vikings -3

LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened as 3.5 point chalk in Adrian Peterson’s return to Minnesota and the spread has dropped to -3. The total hit the betting board at 48 and has yet to change.

INJURY REPORT:

Saints - DE T. Hendrickson (Questionable, Illness), LB N. Stupar (Questionable, Hamstring), QB C. Daniel (Questionable, Ankle), T T. Armstead (Doubtful, Shoulder), WR W. Snead IV (Eligible Week 4, Suspension), LB S. Anthony (Late September, Ankle), CB D. Breaux (Questionable Week 9, Leg), WR C. Fuller (I-R, Undisclosed), TE C. Harbor (I-R, Undisclosed), DT D Lawrence (I-R, Knee), T M. Wallace (I-R, Undisclosed), WR D. Arnold (I-R, Undisclosed), DT N. Fairley (I-R, Heart)

Vikings - DE B. Robison (Probable, Groin), S A. Harris (Probable, Leg), G D. Isidora (Questionable, Knee), DB T. Brock (Questionable, Groin), WR M. Floyd (Eligibility Week 5, Groin), DT S. Floyd (Questionable, Week 7 Knee), QB T. Bridgewater (Questionable Week 7, Knee), RB B. Sankey (I-R, Knee).

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

ABOUT THE SAINTS (2016: 7-9 WU, 11-5 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Long the centerpiece in Minnesota's backfield, Peterson likely will take a complementary role with third-round rookie Alvin Kamara joining incumbent starter Mark Ingram, who is coming off career highs in rushing yards (1,043), scrimmage yards (1,362) and total touchdowns (10). While the offense rarely is an issue, New Orleans' defense has languished near the bottom of the NFL for the last three seasons - including a 31st rank in points allowed in 2016. Cameron Jordan (team-leading 7.5 sacks) and linebacker Craig Robertson (club-best 114 tackles) made their marks last year and rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore is hoping to do the same with the NFL's worst pass defense. "People think we're still at the bottom of the barrel. ... I love proving people wrong anyway, so I'm ready for it," the 21-year-old said.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2016: 9-8 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U): Sam Bradford benefited from a short-yardage passing game to set an NFL record for completion percentage last season, due in large part to the team's inability to run the ball. Minnesota addressed its sputtering running game by selecting Florida State's Dalvin Cook in the second round of the 2017 draft and acquiring Latavius Murray in the offseason, shortly after Peterson bolted to the Bayou. Stefon Diggs (team-leading 84 receptions) and Adam Thielen (career-high 967 receiving yards) serve as Bradford's wideouts while Kyle Rudolph's 83 catches in 2016 were the most by a tight end in franchise history.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.

* Saints are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.

* Over is 5-1 in Saints last 6 games in Week 1.

* Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road pup Saints at a rate of 62 percent and the Over is picking up 61 percent of the totals action.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 11

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: LA Chargers at Denver
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Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-3, 43)

The Denver Broncos aim to rebound from a subpar season by their standards, while the Los Angeles Chargers begin a new era when the two long-time AFC West rivals meet on Monday night in the Mile High City. Both teams also feature new coaches - Vance Joseph for Denver, Anthony Lynn for Los Angeles - while the Chargers play their initial game since unceremoniously ditching San Diego after 56 seasons.

The Broncos missed the playoffs last season after winning the Super Bowl following the 2015 campaign and once again will revolve around a defense led by star linebacker Von Miller. Denver rehired Mike McCoy to rev up the offense after he spent the last four seasons as the Chargers' coach, going a woeful 9-23 over the past two years before being fired. Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib took notice that Los Angeles wideout Keenan Allen is healthy after tearing an ACL in the 2016 season opener and cautioned that the Chargers are a dangerous foe. "They're healthy now, and they've got all of their guys and all of their guns are on deck," Talib told reporters. "They have Philip Rivers as their quarterback, so if you have a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback, you're probably going to be pretty good on offense."

TV: 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 4.5-point home favorites back in April when Week 1 lines were first released. With plenty of time to bet the underdog Chargers, the spread made its way down to the current number of -3. The total hit the betting boards at 44 and was ticked down a notch to 43.

POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (+2.5) - Broncos (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Broncos -7

INJURY REPORT:

Chargers - WR T. Williams (Probable, Groin), WR D. Inman (Questionable, Groin), TE S. McGrath (Questionable, Knee), WR M. Williams (Out, Back), DT T. Palepoi (Out, Suspension), C M. Tuerk (Out, Suspension), DE J. Attaochu (Out, Hamstring), LB D. Perryman (Out, Ankle), G F. Lamp (I-R, Knee), DE C. Landrum (I-R, Shoulder), LB C. Moore (I-R, Undisclosed), TE A. Cleveland (I-R, Knee).

Broncos - RB J. Charles (Probable, Knee), CB A. Talib (Probable, Achilles), C M. Paradis (Probable, Hip), DE D. Wolfe (Probable, Ankle), WR D. Thomas (Probable, Groin), DE A. Gotsis (Questionable, Shoulder), LB S. Barrett (Questionable, Hip), DE J. Crick (Out, Back), RB D. Booker (Out, Wrist), QB P. Lynch Out, Shoulder), DE Z. Kerr (Out, Knee), LB S. Ray (Out, Wrist), TE J. Butt (Out, Knee), QB C. Kelly (Out, Wrist), WR C. Henderson (I-R, Thumb), DE B. Winn (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (2016: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U): Rivers still wings the ball all over the field at age 35 and has topped 4,000 yards eight times to go along with five seasons of 30 or more touchdown passes. Melvin Gordon missed a 1,000-yard rushing season by three yards when he sat out the final three games with hip and knee injuries, while veteran Antonio Gates has 111 career touchdown receptions - tied with Tony Gonzalez for most by a tight end in NFL history. Pass rushers Joey Bosa (10.5 sacks as a rookie) and Melvin Ingram (eight) will test a Denver offensive line that has four new starters while cornerback Casey Hayward (NFL-best seven interceptions) leads the secondary.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2016: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U): Trevor Siemian begins his second year as a starter after passing for 3,401 yards last season and has a solid pair of receivers at his disposal in Demaryius Thomas (five straight 1,000-yard seasons) and Emmanuel Sanders (three straight). Running back C.J. Anderson is healthy after playing just seven games in 2016 before undergoing season-ending knee surgery while former Kansas City star Jamaal Charles will try to revive his career after appearing in only eight contests over the last two seasons due to his own knee woes. Miller is second in the NFL in both sacks (73.5) and forced fumbles (19) since entering in 2011 while Talib is tied for fourth in league history with nine career interceptions returned for touchdowns.

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
* Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 Monday games.
* Over is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games in Week 1.
* Chargers are 8-2-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Denver.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home favorite Broncos at a rate of 57 percent and the Over is picking up 54 percent of the totals action.


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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: NFC Championship rematch highlights Week 2

We’ve got a pair of “Monday Night Football” games this evening to finish off Week 1, but it’s already time to look ahead to Week 2. We check in on the opening lines for four noteworthy games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

Kansas City is arguably the biggest surprise team to emerge from Week 1, even though Andy Reid’s squad went 12-4 SU and was in the playoffs last year. The Chiefs traveled to New England for the Thursday nighter, hung tough with the Patriots through three quarters, then scored the last 21 points of the game in a 42-27 victory as a healthy 8-point underdog.

Philadelphia also started on the right foot on the road, dropping Washington 30-17 as a 2-point favorite Sunday. In the second half, the Eagles allowed only a field goal late in the third quarter.

“Bettors didn’t really like K.C. in the season opener, so we’ll see if they continue to pile on Philly like they did in Week 1,” Cooley said. “However, early sharp action has come in on the Chiefs. Both teams greatly exceeded expectations, so this opening number was dead for a reason.”

That early sharp action pushed the Chiefs to -5.

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (no line)

Perhaps New England is the biggest surprise team of Week 1, getting pantsed in the fourth quarter on its home field. The Patriots, coming off the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history as they beat Atlanta, fell flat late in a 42-27 loss to Kansas City as an 8-point home favorite.

Meanwhile, New Orleans is among the four teams who have some Monday night work to do in Week 1 at Minnesota, before beginning prep for Week 2. The Saints, for years a perennial NFC contender, haven’t made the playoffs the last three years.

“We’ll wait to post a line for this game until the Saints complete their Monday nighter,” Cooley said. “If everything goes accordingly, the Pats will likely surface as 4- to 5-point road chalk. You know they’ll be chomping at the bit to erase that ugly opener, and the public won’t hesitate to lay an awkward digit.”

Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (no line)

Dallas didn’t light it up on offense, but had more than enough thanks to a stout defensive performance in the Sunday night game. The Cowboys gave up only a field goal to the NFC East rival New York Giants en route to a 19-3 home win laying 6 points.

Like New Orleans, Denver gets underway tonight, at home against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Broncos sent Peyton Manning into the sunset with a Super Bowl victory after the 2015 season, but last year went 9-7 SU and ATS, missing the playoffs.

With Dallas going late Sunday and Denver playing tonight, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on the opening line.

“We’ll likely open the road team as a 1-point favorite,” Cooley said. “There are certainly a lot of questions surrounding Denver, and hopefully some of those will be answered for everyone Monday night.”

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

It’s a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game, though not in the same venue, as Atlanta moves into its new digs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium under the Sunday night lights. The Falcons opened the season on the road, fending off Chicago 23-17 as a 6.5-point fave.

Green Bay, which lost that NFC title tilt 44-21 catching 6.5 points, got this season off to a solid start with a 17-9 victory over Seattle giving 2.5 points at home.

“A big early showdown in Hotlanta that should yield a huge ‘Sunday Night Football’ handle,” Cooley said. “Our power ratings have these two teams on a pretty even playing field, so we basically accounted for the home-field advantage. We’re expecting Packers money through and through.”