Announcement

**Udog** · 09-04-2017, 10:40 AM

Home underdogs, Super Bowl hangovers and other NFL Week 1 trends bettors need to know

The Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers are all at home in the first week of the season and catching six or more points. Something that only happened four times over the last five seasons.

Week 1 of the NFL season is a moment sports bettors would like to freeze in time. It’s a week where the books and the bettors are able to go mano a mano wagering on lines based solely on personal preseason projections without any in-season results clouding those opinions.

Sportsbooks will play the first week of the season with more caution then they do once the game results begin to pour in. Those Week 1 lines will not be as sharp as the lines later in September.

That’s what makes three spreads particularly interesting on the NFL Week 1 betting board. The Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers are interesting. All three teams are at home in the first week of the season and catching six or more points. Over the last five seasons (2011 to 2016) there have only be four home teams getting six or more points in Week 1.

“Last year, the bad teams were really bad and the good teams like the Patriots, Cowboys and Falcons crushed us week in and week out,” says Sportsbook.ag oddsmaker Peter Childs.

The Browns, Bears and 49ers went a combined 6-42 straight up and 15-32-1 against the spread last season. All three teams have different starting quarterbacks than a year ago but bettors are skeptical on whether any one of the three teams has improved.

“The public is on the chalk in all three games,” Chris Andrews, an oddsmaker at the South Point sportsbook in Las Vegas, told us. “Some wiseguy play on the Browns but no sharp money yet on the Bears or 49ers.”

One bet the public should be on is the Under. Jason Logan tweeted last November about the Under being on a run in games where the home team was getting 6.5 or more points.

The trend continued the rest of the 2016 season pushing the mark now to 5-21 Over/Under since 2015 and 23-44 since 2013.

Here’s a quick look at each of these games and where the bookmakers project these lines landing just before kickoff.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+9, 47)

The Steelers are 8-1 straight up and 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine games against the Browns. Cleveland released former Pro Bowl cornerback Joe Haden last week and he was swiftly picked up by Pittsburgh. Haden’s first game as a Steeler will be against his former teammates.

The Browns are starting rookie DeShone Kizer at quarterback – something that would have surprised a lot of Cleveland fans three months ago. It’s unclear whether Kizer won the starting job or took it by default after dreadful training camps from Cody Kessler and Brock Osweiler.

“Since opening we’ve taken a small bit of smart money on the Steelers,” Bookmaker.eu spokesperson Scott Cooley says, “but I really doubt that is going to hold up. This line should get to double digits by the time kickoff rolls around.”

If it gets to double digits, it’ll be just the second time in the last six years a home team gets 10 or more points in Week 1. The New England Patriots were 10-point favorites at Buffalo to start the 2013 season. The Bills lost 23-21 but covered the spread.

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears (+7, 51)

It’s a rebuilding year in Chicago where the Bears are 28/1 longshots just to win their own division. The Windy City blew away Jay Cutler and sucked in former Tampa Bay backup Mike Glennon to start under center for the Bears.

The Falcons, meanwhile, are hoping to overcome the Super Bowl slump – a trend for those sides that came up short in the title game. Teams that lost in the Super Bowl are 5-12 SU and 2-15 ATS in their Week 1 games the following season since 2000. The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing, people.

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (+6, 48)

The Panthers hope their Super Bowl hangover is past them. They lost to the Broncos in Super Bowl 50 and followed that up with a 6-10 campaign last year.

Quarterback Cam Newton had offseason surgery on his throwing shoulder and bettors didn’t get to see much of him in the preseason. Will he be ready against the Niners?

“This game has garnered plenty of sharp support on the Panthers’ side,” Cooley says. “They may be fading this 49ers team early this year.”

Kyle Shanahan is the third head coach San Fran has hired since the team let go of Jim Harbaugh in 2014. The Niners won just seven of their 32 games under Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly.

**Udog** · 09-04-2017, 10:41 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

Thursday, September 7

Kansas City @ New England

Game 451-452
September 7, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
137.425
New England
151.405
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 14
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 8
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-8); Over

Sunday, September 10

NY Jets @ Buffalo

Game 453-454
September 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
120.501
Buffalo
131.352
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 11
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 8 1/2
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-8 1/2); Over

Atlanta @ Chicago

Game 455-456
September 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
145.594
Chicago
125.059
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 20 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 7
51
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-7); Under

Jacksonville @ Houston

Game 457-458
September 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
128.402
Houston
135.342
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 7
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 4 1/2
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-4 1/2); Under

Philadelphia @ Washington

Game 459-460
September 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
135.140
Washington
134.387
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 2 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+2 1/2); Under

Arizona @ Detroit

Game 461-462
September 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
135.444
Detroit
132.930
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 2 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 2 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+2 1/2); Under

Oakland @ Tennessee

Game 463-464
September 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
133.403
Tennessee
129.210
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 4
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+2); Over

Tampa Bay @ Miami

Game 465-466
September 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
133.146
Miami
134.164
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+2 1/2); Over

Baltimore @ Cincinnati

Game 467-468
September 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
128.711
Cincinnati
138.548
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 10
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 2 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-2 1/2); Under

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

Game 469-470
September 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.350
Cleveland
125.112
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 12
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 8
47
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-8); Under

Indianapolis @ LA Rams

Game 471-472
September 10, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
133.411
LA Rams
119.032
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 14 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3
47
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-3); Over

Seattle @ Green Bay

Game 473-474
September 10, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
133.337
Green Bay
138.548
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 5
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 3
50
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-3); Over

Carolina @ San Francisco

Game 475-476
September 10, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
132.321
San Francisco
124.072
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 8
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 5 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-5 1/2); Over

NY Giants @ Dallas

Game 477-478
September 10, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
130.020
Dallas
141.275
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 11
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-3 1/2); Over

Monday, September 11

New Orleans @ Minnesota

Game 479-480
September 11, 2017 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
129.432
Minnesota
136.833
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 3 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-3 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 09-04-2017, 10:42 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 7

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KANSAS CITY (12 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (17 - 2) - 9/7/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, September 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NY JETS (5 - 11) at BUFFALO (7 - 9) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NY JETS are 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (13 - 6) at CHICAGO (3 - 13) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (3 - 13) at HOUSTON (10 - 8) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (7 - 9) at WASHINGTON (8 - 7 - 1) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 4-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (7 - 8 - 1) at DETROIT (9 - 8) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (12 - 5) at TENNESSEE (9 - 7) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (9 - 7) at MIAMI (10 - 7) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (8 - 8) at CINCINNATI (6 - 9 - 1) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 71-97 ATS (-35.7 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (13 - 6) at CLEVELAND (1 - 15) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 100-70 ATS (+23.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 8) at LA RAMS (4 - 12) - 9/10/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-224 ATS (-71.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-224 ATS (-71.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-114 ATS (-45.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (11 - 6 - 1) at GREEN BAY (12 - 7) - 9/10/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 181-127 ATS (+41.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (6 - 10) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 14) - 9/10/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 78-55 ATS (+17.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (11 - 6) at DALLAS (13 - 4) - 9/10/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 4-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (7 - 9) at MINNESOTA (8 - 8) - 9/11/2017, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CHARGERS (5 - 11) at DENVER (9 - 7) - 9/11/2017, 10:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 09-04-2017, 10:43 AM

NFL

Week 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 7

9:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing New England
Kansas City is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
New England is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City

Sunday, September 10

2:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Chicago is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games at home

2:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. TENNESSEE
Oakland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Oakland is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games

2:00 PM
NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets

2:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

2:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. HOUSTON
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville

2:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Cleveland is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home

2:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 10 games at home

2:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore

2:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. DETROIT
Arizona is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 13 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home

5:05 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

5:25 PM
SEATTLE vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

5:25 PM
CAROLINA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games
San Francisco is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Carolina
San Francisco is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games

9:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the NY Giants last 9 games on the road
NY Giants are 3-5-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road
Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing at home against NY Giants

Monday, September 11

8:10 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. MINNESOTA
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans

11:20 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. DENVER
Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-04-2017, 10:44 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Thursday's game
Chiefs @ Patriots— Last 14 years, defending Super Bowl champ is 12-2 in its first game the next year (8-3-3 vs spread). Patriots are 6-2 in last eight games with KC; Chiefs lost last six visits here- their last win in Foxboro was in 1990. New England is 12-1 in last 13 season openers (lost @ Miami in ’14); they’re 14-1 in last 15 home openers, but just 1-4 vs spread in last five- their last four wins in HO’s were by 7 or less points. Chiefs won three of last four season openers; they’re 3-8 in last 11 road openers (under 8-4 in last 12), but 6-5 vs spread in last 11 AO’s as an underdog. Under Reid, Chiefs are 4-7 vs spread as a non-divisional road underdog. Since ’13, Patriots are 17-8-3 as a home favorite, 11-4-1 vs non-division opponents.

**Udog** · 09-04-2017, 10:52 AM

NFL Opening Line Report: Sharps cause massive movement in Week 1 betting lines

The long national nightmare is almost over. Real, meaningful NFL games start this week, and thankfully we only have to wait until Thursday for the first regular-season contest.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-7)

New England is coming off a historic Super Bowl comeback, rallying from a 28-3 deficit to beat the Atlanta Falcons 34-28 in overtime and cash as a 3-point favorite. In fact, the Patriots were tops in the league SU and ATS in 2016, going 17-2 SU and an equally superb 16-3 ATS, winning their last 10 SU while covering in nine of those contests.

Kansas City won the AFC West last year on a tiebreaker with the Oakland Raiders, earning a first-round bye. But the Chiefs’ playoff stint was short-lived, as they lost to Pittsburgh 18-16 laying 2.5 points at home to finish 12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS.

Bookmaker.eu first posted NFL Week 1 lines back in April, and bettors have since pushed the defending champs to -8 for the Thursday night season opener.

“Steady action on New England over the last few months has caused this number to tick upward, but I don’t expect it to be north of a touchdown come Thursday,” Cooley said. “The sharps are likely going to wait and see how high the public can push it, and then start picking off the numbers. (Chiefs coach) Andy Reid is great with time to prepare, and I wouldn’t be surprised one bit at an outright upset.”

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3)

A couple of perennial NFC powerhouses collide in Week 1 at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won its last six regular-season games in 2016 to claim the NFC North, then made a run to the conference title game before getting dumped at Atlanta 44-21 as a 6.5-point pup. The Pack finished the season 12-7 SU (11-7-1 ATS).

Seattle (11-5-2 SU, 9-9 ATS) won the NFC West in 2016, then rolled Detroit 26-6 as an 8-point favorite on wild-card weekend. But like Green Bay, the Seahawks’ season ended at the hands of Atlanta, 36-20 as a 6.5-point road pup.

Bookmaker.eu’s opening line of Green Bay -3 was up to 3.5 most of the past couple of weeks, but dropped back to 3 Saturday.

“We’ve seen smart money on the ‘dog side in the last 24 hours, so we are back to the opener,” Cooley said. “It’s going to be the afternoon game every bettor tunes in to, and more than likely as we move toward Sunday, we’ll need the Seahawks to come out on top. Really looking forward to this one to get an early gauge on these elite teams.”

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

Dallas is currently embroiled in Ezekiel Elliott’s appeal of a six-game suspension, hoping to have the star running back on the field for this NFC East prime-time showdown on Sunday night. Behind Elliott and rookie QB Dak Prescott last season, the Cowboys had an 11-game winning streak and covered the first nine of those. Dallas earned a first-round playoff bye, but finished 13-4 SU (10-7 ATS) after a 34-31 loss to Green Bay giving 5.5 points at home in the divisional round.

New York went 11-5 SU (9-6-1 ATS) in the 2016 regular season to nab a wild-card berth, then lost at Green Bay 38-13 as a 5-point dog.

Bookmaker.eu opened Dallas at -6.5. That number is down to 3.5 and could be headed lower still.

“This line is off the board now, as we continue to wait for news on one key injury and one key suspension,” Cooley said, pointing not only to Elliott’s status, but that of Giants wideout Odell Beckham (ankle). “Professional bettors came out early and often for this one, as this number dipped down to -3.5 prior to the unknown status of Beckham and Elliott. If Elliott is in fact out for Week 1, we will likely reopen at -3. The public will be all over Dallas, no matter who is playing.”

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (+1.5)

Oakland had a stout 2016 regular season, going 12-4 SU (10-6 ATS), but quarterback Derek Carr broke his leg in the second-to-last game. That was key to the Raiders losing their regular-season finale at Denver, which relegated them to a wild-card berth and a road playoff game. They subsequently lost at Houston 27-14 getting 4 points.

Tennessee went 9-7 SU (7-9 ATS) last year, winning four of its last five to tie Houston atop the mediocre AFC South. But the Titans lost the tiebreaker and therefore stayed home for the playoffs. Coincidentally, the same week Carr broke his leg, Titans QB Marcus Mariota also suffered a broken leg.

Both QBs are back at the helm for this season opener, but bettors are leaning on Mariota, with this game jumping the fence from Oakland -1.5 to Tennessee -2.

“A big swing in this one, as the Titans have gone from ‘dogs to favorites, and it’s all sharp money shaping this one,” Cooley said. “The ticket count on Oakland is higher, but the money on Tennessee is very heavy. We do expect this to come back down before reaching the key number, but unless we see a lot of square Raider money this weekend, we’ll need the visitor in a big way.”

**Udog** · 09-07-2017, 07:31 AM

NFL

Thursday, September 7

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Thursday Night NFL betting preview and odds: Chiefs at Patriots
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Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-9, 48.5)

Seven months removed from the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history that burnished the legacies of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the New England Patriots open the 2017 season on Thursday night against the visiting Kansas City Chiefs. Emotions should be high as the Patriots celebrate their fifth world championship in a pregame ceremony.

Brady, who turned 40 last month, became the first quarterback in history to win five Super Bowl titles, rallying New England from a 25-point deficit in the second half to a 34-28 overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons. New England, the last team to repeat as Super Bowl champ in 2003-04, was not content to stand pat in the offseason and brought in an elite wide receiver in Brandin Cooks -- an acquisition even more noteworthy after fellow wideout Julian Edelman suffered a season-ending knee injury last month. The Chiefs face a daunting challenge against a club that has won 24 in a row at home against non-division AFC opponents, but they have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, having won 23 games over the past two seasons and claiming the AFC West title in 2016 with a 12-4 mark. "If you're in this business, that's what you thrive on, and I'd tell you both sides feel that way," Kansas City coach Andy Reid said of facing the Patriots. "The players, that's why they play the game. They want to play against the best. You want to coach against the best -- that's a beautiful thing."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-4.5) - Patriots (-7) + home field (-3) = Patriots -5.5

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as seven-point home favorites way back when lines were first released in April. The public bet the defending champs steadily all summer and, as of Wednesday evening, the line was at -9. The total originally hit the betting boards at 50 and was dropped slightly down to 48.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Kansas City overachieved big time last season. Their stats were not indicative of their straight-up record, so the Chiefs will likely regress this season. New England is the best team in the NFL, even with the loss of WR Edelman. A deep group of speedy wide receivers makes their offense even more potent than before." - Steve Merril.

INJURY REPORT:

Chiefs - LB D. Johnson (Probable, Achilles), K. C. Santos (Probable, Groin), OL C. Irving (Probable, Calf), TE T. Kelce (Probable, Calf), OL P. Ehinger (Probable, Knee), LB R. Ragland (Probable, Knee), DB R. Parker (Questionable, Ankle), LB D. Nicolas (Out, Knee), RB S. Ware (I-R, Knee), DB A. Lampkin (IR, Knee), DB S. Nelson (Out, Abdominal), LB T. Hali (Out, Knee).

Patriots - LB E. Roberts (Probable, Ribs), WR M. Mitchell (Questionable, Knee), OL C. Flemming (Questionable, Ankle), DT V. Valentine (Questionable, Knee), DL A. Butler (Questionable, Knee), DB N. Ebner (Questionable, Shoulder), LB H. Langi (Questionable, Concussion), WR M. Slater (Questionable, Hamstring), LB S. McClellin (I-R, Undisclosed), OL A. Jelks (Out, Knee), WR J. Edelman (I-R, Knee), CB C. Jones (I-R, Knee), DL K. Davis (I-R, Neck), OL T. Garcia (Out, Illness), DE D. Rivers (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (2016: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Quarterback Alex Smith doesn't put up big numbers -- his 3,502 passing yards in 2016 were a career high -- and has been tagged with the label of game manager, but the former No. 1 overall pick has tossed only 28 interceptions versus 76 scoring passes in four seasons in Kansas City. With the departure of veteran Jeremy Maclin, Tyreek Hill becomes the top target following a flashy rookie season in which he amassed 12 touchdowns -- six via scoring passes, three on the ground and three in the air. Rookie running back Kareem Hunt, a third-round pick who piled up nearly 5,000 yards over four seasons at Toledo, ascended to the starting job when Spencer Ware underwent season ending knee surgery, while Travis Kelce is widely considered the league's No. 2 tight end behind New England's Rob Gronkowski. There's plenty of talent on the other side of the ball, with perennial Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry leading a secondary that tied for the league high in interceptions, and Dee Ford and linebacker Justin Houston providing a pass rush that needs to pressure Brady.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2017: 14-2 SU, 13-3 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Brady missed the first four games in 2016 while under suspension for the Deflategate saga, but returned to throw for 28 touchdowns against only two interceptions before capping the season with a record 466-yard performance in the stunning comeback in Super Bowl LI. Edelman was Brady's most trusted target with at least 92 catches in three of the past four seasons, but Cooks provides a dynamic big-play threat with 17 scoring passes over the past two years in New Orleans while touchdown machine Gronkowski (68 in 88 games) returns after back surgery ended his season after eight contests. New England was willing to let LeGarrette Blount and his NFL-high 18 rushing TDs leave via free agency, bringing in Mike Gillislee from Buffalo and Rex Burkhead from Cincinnati to go with Super Bowl hero James White in the backfield. New England led the league with an average of 15.6 points allowed last season and bolstered the defense with the signing of free-agent cornerback Stephen Gilmore, who registered a career-best five interceptions for Buffalo in 2016.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Patriots are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 vs. AFC.
* Over is 6-2 in Chiefs last 8 games in September.
* Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games overall.
* Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is supporting the road pup Chiefs at a rate of 53 percent and the Over is picking up 56 percent of the totals action.

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**Udog** · 09-07-2017, 07:38 AM

32 need-to-know betting notes for 32 NFL teams in 2017

NFL football is finally back as another preseason comes to a close. It's been seven months since the Patriots hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy in the greatest Super Bowl comeback ever, so what does this season have in store? To get you prepped for Week 1 of the 2017-18 season, we bring you one betting stat that you need-to-know for each and every team heading into this year.

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens (2016: 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)

Baltimore's secondary figures to improve with the additions of Brandon Carr and Tony Jefferson. The two of them join Jimmy Smith and Eric Weddle who made impacts last year. The Ravens also are a great bet to win close games with arguably the best kicker in football in Justin Tucker. He missed just one field goal last year and that was blocked.

Cincinnati Bengals (2016: 6-9-1 SU, 7-9 ATS, 6-10 O/U)

Andy Dalton puts up good numbers at quarterback against weak teams, but he has struggled in big games. Vontaze Burfict is already suspended and Adam Jones and is one just waiting to happen. The Bengals have a stretch of four road games in five weeks after an early bye.

Cleveland Browns (2016: 1-15 SU, 3-12-1 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

When your quarterback race was between Brock Osweiler (cut), DeShone Kizer (rookie) and Cody Kessler (meh), you aren't going to win too many games. Kenny Britt is the veteran presence at wide receiver, but he will likely see a lot of double teams considering the lack of other weapons. Cleveland closes the season with four road games over the last six weeks.

Pittsburgh Steelers (2016: 11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U)

Injuries could derail this veteran team rather quickly. Ben Roethlisberger has missed chunks of games during the past two seasons and Le'Veon Bell wasn't at training camp, which could lead to a sluggish start. James Harrison is 39-years-old and despite his freakish strength and football IQ, he has definitely lost a step.

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills (2016: 7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS, 12-4 O/U)

Playing New England twice does not help things. But playing the Jets twice does and now that the Dolphins have lost Ryan Tannehill, the Bills caught a break even though the two meetings are in Weeks 15 and 17. The rest of the schedule is not easy however. In additional to having to play the AFC West and NFC South, the other two games are against the Bengals and Colts which were challenging a couple years ago but winnable now.

Miami Dolphins (2016: 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS, 12-4 O/U)

Miami was a playoff team last season despite the fact Ryan Tannehill missed the last three games and it is expected to make another run this season. The loss of Tannehill for the year is tough and while the addition of Jay Cutler may not be an upgrade, it is not a downgrade either as he knows the system and should slide right in. He has plenty of playmakers around him. Overall, the Dolphins increased their talent on defense which was a weakness last season and improvements on that side of the ball can make them dangerous.

New England Patriots (2016: 14-2 SU, 13-3 ATS, 6-10 O/U)

As is the case every year, the Patriots have a bulls-eye on their backs and they never face an opponent that is not sky high to face them. One major factor is that New England will be overvalued in a lot of games this season based on expectations and the success it had last season. The schedule outside of the division is not easy as the Patriots face Kansas City, New Orleans, Houston, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Denver, Oakland and Pittsburgh, all of which are playoff contenders. That is not a very easy section of games.

New York Jets (2016: 5-11 SU, 6-10 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)

The Jets will see plenty of value this upcoming season as no one will want to touch them, so their spreads are going to be enormous. The problem here is where is the quality of football going to come from? They have no proven quarterback, the receiving corps is one of the worst ever in the NFL, Matt Forte is old, the offensive line is raw and the defense is starting from scratch. There was a lack of discipline last year and that was with numerous veterans on the team, so that discipline could be dangerous again and cost head coach Todd Bowles his job.

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans (2016: 9-7 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U)

Houston was outscored by 49 points last season, which is more indicative of a six or seven win team. The only AFC teams with worse point differentials last year were Cleveland, Jacksonville and the Jets. After beating the Bears 23-14 in Week 1 last year, the Texans never again won a game by more than a touchdown. In fact, over their final 14 reg season contests, they got outscored by 66 points. When, or if, Watson will be the starting QB is a mystery with the underwhelming Tom Savage to begin the year under center. How much can Watt really improve the defensive performance from last year. By virtue of winning the division last year, they are the only AFC South team that must play the Patriots, Steelers and Chiefs this year.

Indianapolis Colts (2016: 8-8 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Andrew Luck is at least expected to miss Week 1 and if he misses anymore time, this team is dead (even in a weak division). Luck isn't the only key player banged up either. Center Ryan Kelly missed time this preseason and it seems as if the entire receiving corps is banged up as well. This team is now "paying up" for overachieving in Luck's first several seasons. Head coach Chuck Pagano seems like a lame duck and the defense just isn't any good. If anything, look to bet the Over week-to-week with this team.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2016: 3-13 SU, 8-8 ATS, 10-6 SU)

Oddsmakers expect the AFC South is to be a three-horse race in 2017. But the Texans, Colts and Titans don't seem to be substantially better than the Jaguars, so there is some value here. Bettors are expecting improvement with the season win total of 6.5 heavily juiced to the Over. They had a Pythagorean Win expectation of 5.8 last year, so the win-loss record was a tad bit misleading even if the team was favored in only three games. This year, they're projected to be favored in four and should pull some upsets. Gus Bradley left behind a rapidly improving defense and top draft choice Leonard Fournette could be a difference maker on offense.

Tennessee Titans (2016: 9-7 SU, 7-9 SU, 10-6 O/U)

Just because the Titans may be better this year doesn't necessarily mean they will win more games. The jump that took place last year (from three wins in 2015 to nine in 2016) typically necessitates some sort of "leveling off" in year three. I'm a tad bit worried about the hype surrounding a team that won a total of five games in 2014-15. This is a division full of uninspiring head coaches and Mike Mularkey is definitely one of them. The defense was not great last year.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (2016: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U)

Denver has several question marks. First, of course, is the quarterback position. The uninspiring Trevor Siemian was named the starter, second-year signal caller Paxton Lynch is injured and now Brock Osweiler makes his return to Denver. None of these pivots rates above league average. Second, Denver’s offensive line had major problems last season. Last season’s zone-heavy scheme is being scrapped by new coach Jeff Davidson, who favors a gap approach. But it’s unclear whether this season’s offensive line will be any better than last year’s. If not, then Denver’s quarterbacks will once again face heavy pressure and be vulnerable to sacks (40 last year). Finally, Denver’s schedule is the league’s most difficult, based on its opponents’ records last season.

Kansas City Chiefs (2016: 12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U)

Should starter Alex Smith sustain an injury, rookie Patrick Mahomes would be thrown in the fire (despite looking good this preseason). The running back position is also a concern. Jamaal Charles is gone, so the Chiefs will rely on rookie Kareem Hunt and Charcandrick West. Neither had a play from scrimmage greater than 46 yards last season. Like all the teams in the AFC West, Kansas City’s schedule is brutal this season and ranks as the league’s second most difficult behind Denver’s. Finally, the Chiefs benefited greatly from turnovers last season, as they led the league with 33. But turnovers are somewhat random, so it will be hard for the Chiefs to match that performance this season.

Los Angeles Chargers (2016: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U)

Last year, the Chargers’ season took a huge hit early, when wide receiver Keenan Allen was injured in Game 1, but he is healthy now and will have help in the form of rookie WR Mike Williams (if he can stay healthy), who was drafted No. 7 overall. Those two, plus tight ends Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry, will give quarterback Philip Rivers some terrific targets. Moreover, the Chargers have a great weapon at running back in Melvin Gordon. The second-year pro rushed for 997 yards last season and will be featured in Anthony Lynn’s “ground-and-pound” approach. Also, while other teams have to worry about losing their quarterback to injury, that’s toward the bottom of the Chargers’ concerns, as Rivers has started 176 consecutive games.

Oakland Raiders (2016: 12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS, 11-5 O/U)

Oakland has made major strides over the past three seasons, going from 3-13 in 2014 to 7-9 in 2015 and then to 12-4 last season. Oakland will be saddled with a very difficult schedule this year (the fourth hardest in the NFL), which includes a “home” game in Mexico City versus New England. There’s also a big concern at the running back position. General manager Reggie McKenzie traded for Marshawn Lynch, who has come out of retirement to play for his hometown team. But Lynch is now 31 years old and only gained 417 yards in seven games two seasons ago. Last season, the Raiders were tied with the Chiefs for the league’s best turnover differential (+16), but that is a statistic which can greatly change from year-to-year, so the Raiders’ success will be adversely affected if they don’t reach the same heights again.

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears (2016: 3-13 SU, 7-9 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Jordan Howard accounted for over 1,600 yards in 2016 and that was with a lot of uncertainty around him on offense. Cam Meredith showed flashes of brilliance at wide receiver with almost 900 yards receiving and four touchdowns. Mitchell Trubisky will be a solid option at quarterback when he eventually takes over. The team spent a lot of money this offseason to upgrade the defense.

Detroit Lions (2016: 9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS, 6-10 O/U)

The defensive line has taken a few injuries already this offseason including Kerry Hyder who had eight sacks in 2016. Ameer Abdullah is supposed to be the feature back, but the team needs to get more from the run to keep defenses honest. Abdullah has missed time in the past, so it could be a concern that he won't be able to stand up to a regular workload. The road slate is rough with trips to New Orleans, New York, Baltimore and Tampa Bay.

Green Bay Packers (2016: 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U)

The run game still needs a lot of work with Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams vying for carries. Montgomery is a converted wide reciever while Williams is a rookie. The team is relying on a lot of young players on defense especially if they start Kevin King at corner right out of college. Three of their final four games are on the road.

Minnesota Vikings (2016: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U)

The loss of Adrian Peterson was mitigated by the additions of Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray. Cook is going to add some speed to the backfield and provide another option in the passing game. Sam Bradford will actually get a whole offseason with the team as opposed to last year when he came over just before the regular season began. The defense is littered with young talent including Xavier Rhodes and Linval Joseph.

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys (2016: 13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS, 6-10 O/U)

For a team that goes 13-3, regression is always possible and Dallas will not be sneaking up on anyone this season. The core group of the Cowboys is back but they did lose 10 players that accounted for over 500 games so depth could be an issue. Four of those losses came in the secondary as all four starters are gone and in a pass-heavy league, that is not a good thing. Teams will be better prepared for Prescott with a full year of film to look at. The division has gotten stronger and going 10-0 outside the division is not going to happen again. Oh, and that six game suspension for Ezekiel Elliott is going to hurt.

New York Giants (2016: 11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 4-12 O/U)

The Giants finished 11-5 last season and made it to the playoffs for the first time since 2011, so they can build on that heading into this year. The offense upgraded with the signing of wide receiver Brandon Marshall and drafting of tight end Evan Engram. The defense upgraded last season and it showed as New York went from dead last in total defense in 2015 to No. 10 last season while allowing the second fewest amount of points. The Giants only lost one of those starters so they could be even better this year. A pretty weak schedule should help them get back to the postseason.

Philadelphia Eagles (2016: 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

With the division better overall, it will be hard for the Eagles to improve on their seven wins from last season considering they started 0-4 in the division and winning the last two games when they meant nothing in Week 16 and Week 17. The schedule is tame but the opening stretch is a challenge with four of their first six games on the road and the two home games coming against the Giants and Cardinals. Philadelphia did not lose much in any big areas but did not add enough to gain significant progress either.

Washington (2016: 8-7-1 SU, 10-6 ATS, 12-4 O/U)

The defense was awful in 2016, allowing 377.9 yards per game which was No. 28 in the league. A new coordinator and scheme can help but it might take time to come together and in a division which should be tight, the progress cannot take too long. While the signing of Terrelle Pryor helps, losing two quality receivers is hard to overcome. Rob Kelley is the starting running back but he went over 100 yards only once last season so there will be little offensive balance. Like the Eagles, not enough was brought in to make a significant jump up.

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons (2016: 11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS, 12-3-1 O/U)

The offense is probably going to regress. Granted, it was still be one of the most prolific units in the league, but the loss of offensive-coordinator Kyle Shanahan certainly matters and it will be hard for Mattt Ryan to match last year’s numbers. Also, the big question here is how will the team respond after gagging away the Super Bowl in February? In other sports, there have been recent examples of a team coming up short in a championship scenario, only to go “all the way” the following year. Clemson football, UNC hoops and the Cleveland Cavaliers all come to mind. But we haven’t seen a Super Bowl loser make it back to that game the following season since Buffalo’s string of setbacks in the early 1990’s. The division is vastly improved this year and with Atlanta expected to be favored in as many as 12 games, there should be ample opportunities to fade them.

Carolina Panthers (2016: 6-10 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)

All signs are pointing up this year. Going into last year, no one believed Carolina would match 2015’s 15-1 mark, but the fall was far harsher than anyone could have predicted. They won nine fewer games due in large part to going from +20 to -2 in turnover margin and going 2-6 SU in one-score games (where they were 7-1 the previous season). Expect them to finish somewhere in between the last two years, this year. That means a potential return to the playoffs as Cam Newton will be healthier and he’s got a new weapon in Christian McCaffery. By virtue of finishing last in the South last year, they will play an easier schedule. With the 49ers, Bills and Saints being the first three opponents this year, a 3-0 SU start is a very real possibility.

New Orleans Saints (2016: 7-9 SU, 11-5 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

There are two sides to every equation. As automatic as it may be to proclaim this offense as “good,” it’s just as easy to call the defense “very bad.” Drew Brees is also getting old (he’s 38) and don't expect a lot out of Adrian Peterson. The team traded away top receiver Brandin Cooks to the Patriots. Unless they plan on winning a lot of shootouts, another average season (at best) should be expected here. Having covered a division best 11 games in 2016, don’t expect them to be as successful at the betting window this season. They weren’t getting the usual respect at home (for some reason) last year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2016: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)

Exercise cation with this sexy sleeper. The main issue is that they managed to win nine games last year despite being favored in only three. Clearly, they caught the oddsmakers by surprise. Their +6 in net upsets led the league and indicates that regression could be on the way. For all the hype, the Bucs are favored in only five (maybe six) games this year, so this kind of reminds me of last year’s Jaguars (they won’t be that bad though). This team was not as good as last year’s record indicated. The division is tough, they it's asking a lot to win at both Atlanta and Carolina again and they could be set up for disappointment.

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals (2016: 7-8-1 SU, 6-10 ATS, 10-6 O/U)

Arizona was 7-8-1 last season, but its failures could largely be chalked up to losing close games. In games decided by seven points or less, the Cardinals were 2-5-1. In 2015, when Arizona went 13-3, it was 4-1 in games decided by seven or less points. A major factor in this decline was the performance of place kicker Chandler Catanzaro, who succeeded on just 75 percent of his attempts (after converting 90.3 percent in 2015). Management replaced Catanzaro with 42-year-old veteran Phil Dawson, who has missed just three field goals each of the past two seasons. Otherwise, Arizona chose to not over-react to its disappointing season. The well-respected coaching staff remains largely in place. Bruce Arians heads the unit, and he’s 51-27-1 in his career when in charge of a staff. The Cards also boast one of the best talents in the league in running back David Johnson, who gained 100-plus yards from scrimmage in each of his first 15 games last season.

Los Angeles Rams (2016: 4-12 SU, 4-11-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U)

Thirty-one-year-old Sean McVay (the youngest head coach in modern NFL history) replaces Jeff Fisher. McVay’s passion and enthusiasm will be key in turning around this franchise. Additionally, Wade Phillips is the new defensive coordinator. Though the Rams ranked No. 9 in total defense last season, Phillips is arguably the best defensive coordinator in the NFL and can make the unit even better. The coaching staff’s primary goal this past offseason was to upgrade the talent around second-year quarterback Jared Goff, who had a disastrous rookie season. A key signing was veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Goff also should benefit from a change in scheme, as McVay favors more of a spread offense, which is what Goff succeeded in at Cal-Berkeley. Finally, running back Todd Gurley should have a bounce-back campaign following a season in which he rushed for just 885 yards (the fewest in NFL history by a back with 275-plus carries). Last year, defenses were able to stack the box against him, but that will be less the case this season.

San Francisco 49ers (2016: 2-14 SU, 4-11-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U)

Erstwhile head coach Chip Kelly lasted just one season in San Francisco. The 49ers went just 2-14, in no small measure due to the fact that the players didn’t fit Kelly’s system. Enter rookie head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch. They’ve overhauled much of the roster (50 of the team’s players on its offseason roster were new), with an eye toward acquiring talent that will allow Shanahan to create an offense founded on personnel groups equally adept at running and passing the football. To help with the transition, the 49ers have also brought in players like QB Brian Hoyer and WR Pierre Garcon, who have worked under Shanahan in the past.

Seattle Seahawks (2016: 10-5-1 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Seattle won 10 games last season — the fifth straight season it reached double-digit wins — a hallmark of consistency under coach Pete Carroll. If not for injuries to key personnel, Seattle likely would have won more than it did. Free safety Earl Thomas suffered a broken leg in a December game versus Carolina, after which Seattle’s defense gave up 30-plus points in three of its final six games (losing those three). Additionally, cornerback Richard Sherman was bothered by an MCL injury, while quarterback Russell Wilson battled knee and ankle injuries the entire season. Wilson’s rushing productivity was greatly affected, as he ran for a career-low 259 yards. The good news is that all of Seattle’s key players are feeling fit, so it’s a reasonable expectation that it will once again find the form which allowed it to reach the Super Bowl in the 2013 and 2014 seasons. Finally, the Seahawks play in a weak division, and get to play two of the worst teams in football (Rams, 49ers) twice each.

**Udog** · 09-07-2017, 07:50 AM

Armadillo: Random NFL thoughts with the season starting Thursday…….

13) Dallas only has one divisional game during Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension, Week 1 against the Giants. How different will the Cowboys’ offense be without Elliott?

Giants lost three of their last four visits to Dallas.

12) How is Cam Newton’s shoulder? He didn’t play in preseason; Panthers obviously need him. Their records the last four years:
2013: 12-4
2014: 7-8-1
2015: 15-1
2016: 6-10

11) How bad are the Jets going to be? If they can keep 37-year old QB Josh McCown healthy, he’ll keep their offense respectable, but if he goes down, their QB situation becomes a dumpster fire. They better hope USC QB Sam Darnold has a big year— he figures to be the first QB taken in the draft next April.

Jets swept Buffalo last year but lost four of last five visits to western New York.

10) Denver’s QB’s are Siemian-Lynch-Osweiler; they’ve got a new coach, new coordinators. Broncos are 59-21 the last five years; they making the playoffs this year?

Denver won six of its last seven games with San Diego, with all six wins by 7+ points (5-2 vs spread).

9) Jacoby Brissett started one game last year; the Patriots lost 16-0 to Buffalo. Despite that, the Colts traded for Brissett over the weekend, giving up a WR who was a first round pick in 2015. Unless they have real doubts about Andrew Luck’s health, this is a weird, weird move.

8) Why is Marty Mornhinweg an offensive coordinator in the NFL? Baltimore couldn’t come up with a better OC than him? For instance, Mike Martz doesn’t have a job.

With Joe Flacco hurting, look at their backup QB— Ryan Mallett. Two years ago, when Mallett didn’t win the starter’s job in Houston, he called in sick the next day. He called in sick!!! Not exactly the kind of guy you might need to lead the franchise.

Bengals won five of last six games with Baltimore; underdogs covered five of those six games.

7) Will the Saints run the ball more now that they have Adrian Peterson?

New Orleans won its last four games with Minnesota; their last loss to Minnesota was in 2008.

6) Home teams won last five Green Bay-Seattle games; last three were all decided by 10+ points. Packers were +6 in turnovers in last year’s 38-10 win over Seattle.

5) John Fox is on the hot seat in Chicago, with a high draft pick at QB waiting to take the place of a journeyman QB (Mike Glennon), much like the Rams’ situation last year. It didn’t end well for the Rams’ coach last year; can Fox win enough games this year to keep his job?

4) Tennessee Titans have high expectations for the first time in a while; can Marcus Mariota lead them to the playoffs? Last time the Titans were in the playoffs was 2008; last time they won a playoff game was 2003.

Favorites covered nine of last 10 Raider-Titan games; Oakland beat the Titans in Nashville 17-10/24-21 the last two seasons.

3) Eagles play four of their first six games on the road, then go 38 days before their next road game. Carson Wentz got high grades for his rookie season. Philly hasn’t won a playoff game since 2008. NFC East is looking tough this season.

Redskins won their last four games with Philly, holding Eagles to 75 rushing yards/game in last five meetings. Iggles lost their last three visits to Landover, MD

2) Cleveland is starting rookie DeShone Kizer at QB; his college coach Brian Kelly said last winter that Kizer wasn’t ready for the NFL, so we’ll find out about pretty quickly. Expectations couldn’t be any lower for the Browns, who cut CB Joe Haden last week, only to have Pittsburgh sign him for $27M about five minutes later.

Browns have actually won twice in their last five home games with Pittsburgh, but they’re 1-17 in season openers.

1) Atlanta Falcons were 0-4 in preseason, which means almost nothing, but then you realize they have two new coordinators and are coming off that Super Bowl. Teams that lose the Super Bowl generally have a hangover the next season. Tough job for Dan Quinn this season.

Last 14 years, the Super Bowl loser is 5-9 in its first game the next year (2-12 vs spread).

**Udog** · 09-07-2017, 02:35 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 1

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (-2, 50.5)

Raiders' red zone D woes vs. Titans' touchdown parade

Two teams with high hopes in their respective divisions do battle at Nissan Stadium this Sunday afternoon as the Oakland Raiders visit the Tennessee Titans. The hosts have remade their passing offense for quarterback Marcus Mariota, who is expected to take a big step forward in his third year in the league. The Raiders are coming off an impressive 12-4 campaign in the AFC West, but their modest +31 point differential suggests that record might have been a bit overinflated.

Oakland was one of the most prolific offensive teams in the AFC a season ago, and still has all of its key weapons in the passing game in quarterback David Carr and receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. But the defense faltered at times in 2016, particularly in the red zone. The Raiders allowed teams to score touchdowns on 60 percent of their trips inside the 20, the seventh-worst rate in the league. It was a big step back for Oakland, which boasted a 51.8 percent opponent red-zone TD rate in 2015.

Improvement in that area will be a must - especially this weekend, with the Titans coming off a season that saw them go 9-7 despite being the most successful team in the league at scoring red-zone touchdowns. Tennessee boasted a 72 percent success rate at turning red-zone visits into end-zone celebrations, well ahead of runner-up San Francisco. With Mariota now blessed with a cache of receiving options - including end-zone threat Eric Decker - it could be a long day for the visiting Raiders.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+9, 47)

Steelers' discipline issues vs. Browns' good behavior

Big Ben and the boys are back on their quest for a Super Bowl championship - and that journey begins with a two-hour drive to Cleveland for a date with the perennially rebuilding Browns. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has a full compliment of offensive weapons, with Martavis Bryant back from suspension to join mega-stars Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. But the Steelers will need to be better disciplined than they were in 2016 if they hope to lift the Lombardi Trophy at season's end.

Pittsburgh has elite-level talent on both sides of the ball - but none of that matters if the Steelers are racking up penalty flags. The team finished with the third-most accepted penalty yards in the league last season (1,200), including three games with 100 or more penalty yards accrued (not surprisingly, they went 1-2 in those contests.) The final 2016 tally includes a whopping 26 offensive holding calls and 23 false start penalties, both top-eight in the NFL.

Cleveland didn't do a lot of things well last season - or in most seasons this decade - but at least it was polite. The Browns finished with the second-fewest accepted penalty yards in football (736), ahead of only the geographic-rival Cincinnati Bengals. In what might be the most incredible stat of all, Cleveland had just one offensive pass interference penalty all season; eight teams finished with at least four. With a major skill gap between these teams, a penalty discrepancy might just keep things close.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 42.5)

Ravens' stifling 2H defense vs. Bengals' late scoring woes

The latest edition of an AFC North showdown between the Ravens and Bengals kicks off Sunday afternoon at Paul Brown Stadium, with both teams facing question marks on offense. Baltimore will look to integrate a pair of new pieces - running back Danny Woodhead and receiver Jeremy Maclin - into quarterback Joe Flacco's high-energy offense. The Bengals also have a new arrival in rookie rusher Joe Mixon - and he'll look to improve his team's woeful second-half scoring output from a season ago.

It won't be easy for Cincinnati in the season opener, with the Bengals squaring off against a Ravens defense that comes into the season ranked among the league's best yet again. Baltimore finished just outside the top-10 in the league in second half points allowed per game last season (10.6), a total that would have been in single digits were it not for a late-season collapse (43 second half points surrendered over the final three games).

The Bengals' offense left much to be desired last season, particularly after halftime. The Bengals finished with the sixth-fewest second half points per contest (8.4) and were an offensive abomination at home, averaging a minuscule 5.6 second-half points in eight games at Paul Brown Stadium. In a game that is expected to be a tightly contested affair, Cincinnati will need to find some second-half offense or risk losing a key divisional matchup right off the bat.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 47.5)

Giants' vaunted defense vs. Cowboys' O-line cracks

The NFC East is expected to be one of the most hotly contested divisions in football this season - and the Giants have done their part to make sure they're contending at the end. New York went on a defensive spending spree during the offseason, and have put themselves in position to be one of the top defensive units in the NFL. That quest begins Sunday against a Cowboys team that still has one of the league's top offensive lines - but there are cracks in the armor heading into Week 1.

New York slumbered through the first part of last season, failing to generate much of a pass rush while ranking near the bottom of the league in sacks. That all changed in the second half, as the Giants finished the season in the middle of the pack in sacks overall and comes into this season with a stacked defensive line featuring Jason Pierre-Paul, Olivier Vernon, Jay Bromley and Damon Harrison. Add in Pro Bowl defensive back Landon Wilson, and you have the makings of a top-tier unit.

That said, New York will still have its hands full with a Dallas offensive line that returns three Pro Bowlers and has the benefit of one of the best pass-blocking running backs in football in Ezekiel Elliott - at least, until his six-game suspension takes effect. But the Cowboys also enter the year with unknowns at left guard (Chaz Green/Jonathan Cooper) and right tackle (La'el Collins) - and if the Giants can exploit those perceived weaknesses Sunday, the Cowboys might struggle to contain the pressure.

**Udog** · 09-10-2017, 09:37 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Jets @ Bills—Buffalo led NFL in rushing yardage last two years; will that change under the new coach? Bills had won five in row over the Jets before getting swept 37-31/30-10 in two meetings LY. Jets lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 19-23-5 points. Jets open on road for first time since ’09; they’re 5-1 in last six season openers, 15-5 vs spread in last 20 road openers. Buffalo is 7-3 vs spread in last ten home openers- three of last four stayed under. Last five years, Bills are 9-6 vs spread when hosting AFC East foes; since 2012, they’re 12-10 as a home favorite. Over is 12-4 in their home games the last two years. Jets are 2-4-2 as road underdogs under Bowles. Under is 10-6 in Jet road games the last two seasons.

Falcons @ Bears— Last 14 years, Super Bowl loser is 5-9 in its first game the next year (2-12 vs spread). Atlanta also has two new coordinators this year; they’re 3-2 in last five season openers, 4-3 as a road favorite under Quinn. Under is 15-9 in their road games the last three years. Chicago is 6-11-1 vs spread as a home underdog since ’12 (4-1 LY). First meeting in three years between these two; Falcons lost last six games in Windy City- their last win here was in 1983 (also in Week 1). Atlanta is 3-2 in its last five road openers. Under is 10-3 in their last 13 AO’s. Chicago lost its last three home openers, by 3-8-15 points; over is 4-1-1 in their last six. Bears were -20 in turnovers LY, are 14-34 SU the last three years.

Jaguars @ Texans— Houston won last six games in this division rivalry; they swept Jaguars LY, 24-21/21-20. Jax lost five of last six games in Houston, losing last three by 1-24-6 points. Texans are 12-4-1 as a home favorite under O’Brien; they’re also starting 4th different QB on Opening Day in his four years as Texans’ coach. Since ’09, Jaguars are 24-29-1 as a road underdog; over is 11-5 in their road games the last two years. Jax lost its last nine road openers (2-7 vs spread)- they started 0-1 the last five years. Houston won six of last seven season openers, are 5-2 vs spread in last seven home openers. Under is 8-4 in their last 12 home openers, 10-6 in their home games the last two seasons.

Eagles @ Redskins— Washington won last five series games, sweeping Iggles 27-20/27-22 LY. Philly lost last three visits here, by 3-3-7 points. Last two years, Redskins are 12-4 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points- they’re 4-8 as a home favorite under Gruden. Eagles are 8-9 vs spread as a road underdog the last three years. Philly won seven of last eight road openers- they covered last five tries as an underdog in AO’s. Over is 5-2-2 in their last nine AO’s. Washington lost four of its last five home openers; five of last six went over total. Last two years, Eagles are 7-10 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points. Over is 22-10 in Philly road games the last four years.

Cardinals @ Lions— Redbirds are 10-6 vs spread on artificial turf, 10-5 as road favorites under Arians. Detroit is 1-5 as home underdog under Caldwell. Arizona won its last seven games with Lions; five of those seven were in desert. Redbirds won 31-24/42-17 in last two visits here; their last loss to Lions was here in 2005. Arizona had covered eight road openers in row before losing Week 3 AO in Buffalo LY- three of their last four went over. Cards won five of last seven season openers. Detroit won five of last six season openers, lost last two home openers, scoring 12-15 points. Over is 5-2 in their last seven HO’s. Over is 13-3 in Cardinal road games last two years. Over is 23-17 in their home games the last five years.

Raiders @ Titans— Silver/Black was 7-1 LY in games with spread of 3 or less points; they’re 12-4 vs spread on road under Del Rio. Oakland won in Music City last two years, 24-21/17-10; road team won last three series games. Last four years, Titans are 9-20-3 vs spread at home; since 2011, they’re 13-22-3 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less. Oakland lost four of last five season openers; they’re 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten road openers— over is 12-5-1 in their last 18. Tennessee won three of last four season openers, but lost its last three home openers. Titans are 5-13-2 vs spread in last 20 non-divisional home tilts. Under is 7-3 in their last ten season openers. Oakland is 15-5 vs spread in its last 20 non-divisional road games. New kicker for the Raiders; Sebastian Janikowski got put on IR; Giorgio Tavecchio takes his place.

Because of Hurricane Irma, Bucs-Dolphins will be played in Week 11.

Ravens @ Bengals— Cincy is opening at home for first time since 2009; they went 4-3 in Week 1 road games since then, are 5-2 (4-2-1 vs spread) in last seven home openers. Under is 7-2 in their last nine HO’s. Bengals are 15-9-1 as home favorites since 2013, but their OL was ravaged in free agency last winter- they’re 7-5 vs spread in AFC North home games last four years. Since 2012, Baltimore is 10-13-1 as a road underdog; they’re 4-1-1 vs spread in last six divisional road games. Ravens lost four of last six road openers; they’re 7-4 vs spread in last 11 AO’s (over is 7-2-1 in last ten). These teams finished LY here against each other. Bengals won six of last seven meetings, winning last five played here, by 6-17-3-8-17 points.

Steelers @ Browns— Since returning to NFL in 1999, Cleveland has been 1-0 once, 0-1 17 times, with only Week 1 win 20-3 over the Ravens in ’04. Browns are 4-14 vs spread in HO’s, 3-2 in last five- they’re 2-12 vs spread in Week 1 HO’s. Steelers are 8-1 in last nine series games; they won three of last four visits here, with wins by 16-16-17 points. Pittsburgh lost five of last six road openers, four of last six season openers. Under is 7-3 in their last ten AO’s. Browns were 1-7 as home underdogs this year, are 13-21-1 as home dogs since 2010; they’re 1-8 in NFC North home games the last three years. Pittsburgh is 10-6 as a road favorite last two years, 4-2 in division games. Under is 12-4 in their last 16 road games.

Colts @ Rams— Luck is out here; Tolzien (0-2-1 as starter) gets the start. Goff had very little chance as rookie LY because Rams’ OL sucked; now we see if new regime has improved that unit. Rams were 1-4-1 as home dogs LY, are 22-30-2 in that role, since 2007. Over is 20-15 in their last 35 home games. Colts 1-3 as road favorites the last two years; over is 17-7 in their last 24 road games. Indy lost six of last seven season openers, is 2-5 vs spread in last seven road openers. Under is 6-3 in their last nine season openers. Rams lost last 10 season openers, but won four of last five home openers; this is their first home opener in SoCal since 1994. First game for 31-year old Rams’ HC McVay; Rams hammered Colts 38-8 (+8) in last meeting, in 2013. Indy beat McVay’s Redskins 49-27 in ’14.

Seahawks @ Packers— Packers beat Seahawks last two years, 27-17/38-10; Seahawks lost last seven visits here- their last win at Lambeau was in ’99. Seattle lost nine of last ten road openers; under is 9-5 in their last 14. Home team won nine of their last ten season openers. Green Bay won nine of last ten home openers (8-2 vs spread); five of their last six went over total- their last six Week 1 games went over. Last three years, Packers are 14-7-2 as home favorites; they’re 8-12 in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points. Under is 11-5 in their last 16 home games. Since ’11, Seahawks are 11-5-5 vs spread as a road underdog; they’re 8-5-2 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points.

Panthers @ 49ers— Niners are on 4th head coach in four years. How healthy is Newton’s shoulder? Panthers gave up 81 points LY in two games vs Shanahan’s Atlanta offense- 49ers’ personnel is obviously inferior. SF is 7-7 as home dog the last two years; under is 22-10 in their last 32 home games. Carolina is 6-12-1 as a road favorite under Rivera. In franchise history, Carolina is 1-6 vs spread as a favorite in road openers; Panthers lost six of last eight road openers- over is 6-3 in their last nine. Carolina lost six of last eight season openers. 49ers won five of last six home openers, covered seven of last eight, with last three staying under total. Carolina (-12.5) hammered 49ers 46-27 in Week 2 LY, their 5th win in last six games vs SF.

Giants @ Cowboys— Rivals meet in Week 1 for 4th time in last five years- this is 5th year in row Giants open on road. Big Blue won last three meetings with Cowboys; they swept Dallas 21-20/10-7 LY. Giants lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 1-10-5 points. Since ’08, Cowboys are vs spread 20-36 as home favorites (4-2 LY); over is 9-6-1 in their last 16 home games. Last 3 years, Giants are 5-8-2 as road underdogs; under was 7-1 in their road games LY, McAdoo’s first as HC. Big Blue lost five of last seven road openers, with last two decided by a point apiece. Over is 11-2 in Giants’ last 14 road openers. Dallas won four of its last six home openers, but is 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine.

Saints @ Vikings— Adrian Peterson visits his old team. Since 2014, New Orleans is 11-4-1 vs spread as a road underdog, 6-3-1 in non-division games. Under is 18-14 in their last 32 road games. Minnesota is 13-4 as home favorites under Zimmer; under is 14-10 in their last 24 home games. Saints won last four series games- three of those were in Superdome. Teams last met in ’14; Saints were last here in ’11. New Orleans lost five of last six season openers, are 0-4 in last four Week 1 road tilts; last time they won a Week 1 road game was ’06 in Cleveland. Over is 7-2 in their last nine road openers. Minnesota is 3-6 in last nine Week 1 games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 HO’s- this is only second time in last 10 years they open season at home.

Chargers @ Broncos— New era for Denver, with Siemian at QB now- they missed playoffs LY for first time in six years. Chargers have moved north an hour; unsure how unsettling the small move will be- it hurt the Rams LY. Denver is 10-2 in last 12 series games, winning last four played here, by 7-14-7-8 points. Since 2014, Broncos are 8-10-1 vs spread as a home favorite- they won their last five home openers, are 6-2 in last eight. Over is 6-3-1 in their last 10; this is 7th year in row Denver opened season at home. Chargers are 21-11-1 in last 33 games as a road underdog; under is 18-14 in their last 32 road games. Bolts covered four of last five road openers, losing last three, by 1-5-6 points; they’re 7-3 vs spread in last 10 Week 1 road tilts.

2017 week-by-week results
Home Favorites Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 0-1 0-1 1-0

T) 0-1 0-1 1-0

**Udog** · 09-10-2017, 09:46 AM

NFL

Sunday, September 10

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Sunday Night Football Betting Preview: Giants at Cowboys
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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 47.5)

The news the Dallas Cowboys did not want to hear came down on Wednesday when an NFL arbiter upheld the six-game suspension of running back Ezekiel Elliott following accusations of domestic violence. However, Elliott got a one-week reprieve and will play in Sunday's season opener when the Cowboys host the NFC East rival New York Giants in prime time.

Elliott, who led the league in rushing with 1,631 yards as a rookie last season, filed a temporary restraining order to block the ban, but the timing of Wednesday's ruling allowed him to face New York before the suspension kicks in. The Giants, who swept Dallas last season and have won three straight in the series, are looking forward to facing the Cowboys at full strength. "I don’t want to hear the backlash of, 'This person wasn’t here,'" said New York safety Landon Collins. "If you want to be the best ... you have to beat the best. He’s one of the best in the game." The Giants have one of the best in the game on their sideline in mercurial wideout Odell Beckham Jr., but his status for the game is in question after missing practice Wednesday and Thursday due to a left ankle injury sustained in a preseason game against Cleveland.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Giants (-2.5) - Cowboys (-3) + home field (-3) = Cowboys -3.5

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 5.5-point home chalk way back in the Spring when the lines were first released. Money has been coming in on the Giants and has driven the line down as low 3.5, earlier this week. News of Ezekiel Elliott being able to play has brought in some money on the Cowboys and the line has rebounded to an even four. The total hit the betting board at 49.5 and has been dropped two points to 47.5. View the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: The Giants have dominated this series of late, winning the money the last five games in a row. Interestingly, they were 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in season openers against division foes until they upended the Cowboys here to start the season last year. The return of star RB Ezekiel Elliott figures to the Cowboys chances today. 'Marc Lawrence'.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: This game has been all over the place line wise. Cowboys opened a solid 6, public early on backed the Giants and did so all summer long. Then the Zeke suspension, then the reinstatement, this game got bet down all the way to Cowboys -3.5 dog -120 to 4 flat, which is the current number. Public loved the Giants up until Bekham got hurt in that preseason MNF game. That injury alone took the game off the board, and when we reopened it we thought he’d be probable but he’s been listed questionable this whole time and as of today he’s still listed questionable. Personally I do believe he’ll play, how effective he’ll be is completely unknown. At Cowboys -4 we’ve seen great, two way action. If Beckham is a scratch, this line will definitely shoot up to 5 or maybe even 5 ½. ‘Peter Childs at Sportsbook.ag’

INJURY REPORT:

Giants - WR Dwayne Harris (Probable, Upper Body), CB Eli Apple (Probable, Ankle), WR Tavarres King (Probable, Ankle), DT Jay Bromley (Probable, Knee), WR Brandon Marshall (Probable, Shoulder), WR Odell Beckham Jr. (Questionable, Ankle), LB Keenan Robinson (Out, Concussion), CB Valentino Blake (Out Indefinitely, Personal), LB Mark Herzlich (I-R, Stinger), DT Josh Banks (I-R, Shoulder), T Adam Gettis (I-R, Foot), DE Evan Schwan (I-R, Foot), WR Keeon Johnson (I-R, Foot), DT Corbin Bryant (I-R, Elbow), WR Kevin Norwood (I-R, Hip), DE Ishaq Williams (I-R, Knee)

Cowboys - RB Ezekiel Elliot (Probable, Suspension), T Chaz Green (Probable, Ankle), LB Jaylon Smith (Probable, Knee), DL Tyrone Crawford (Probable, Ankle), CB Jourdan Lewis (Questionable, Hamstring), DE Damontre Moore (Eligible Week 3, Suspension), LB Anthony Hitchens (Early November, Knee), DT Maliek Collins (Out Indefinitely, Hip), DL David Irving (Eligible Week 5, Suspension), DE Randy Gregory (Out For Season, Suspension), TE Connor Hamlett (Questionable Week 9, Calf), TE Rico Gathers (Questionable Week 9, Concussion), CB Duke Thomas (I-R, Knee), QB Zac Desert (I-R, Back).

ABOUT THE GIANTS (2016: 11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 4-12 O/U): New York rebounded from three consecutive losing seasons to earn its first postseason berth since 2011, sparked by a defense that led the NFC with an average of 17.8 points allowed and ranked fourth in the league against the run (Dallas was No. 1). Quarterback Eli Manning, entering his 14th season, threw for 26 touchdowns and 16 interceptions while reaching 4,000 yards for the sixth time despite a running game that averaged only 88.3 yards and produced a league-worst six rushing touchdowns. While second-year running back Paul Perkins takes over as the starter, the Giants added two pieces to the passing game by signing six-time Pro Bowler Brandon Marshall and making rookie tight end Evan Engram their first-round draft pick. Beckham is coming off another huge season, scoring 10 times and hauling in a career-best 101 receptions.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2016: 13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Elliott wasn't the only Dallas rookie to make a spectacular entrance into the NFL as quarterback Dak Prescott played with the poise of a veteran by throwing for 23 touchdowns against only four interceptions and compiling a 104.9 passer rating. Elliott was the focal point of the offense, getting at least 20 carries in 12 games while rushing for 15 touchdowns and eclipsing 100 yards seven times, but was held to 162 yards on the ground in two meetings against the Giants. A healthy Dez Bryant will be a big boost for the Cowboys -- he was limited to 81 catches combined over the past two seasons after hauling in at least 88 receptions in each of the previous three years. Linebacker Sean Lee was third in the league with a career-best 145 tackles last season for a defense that will be missing three defensive linemen due to suspension.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.

* Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.

* Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

* Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Dallas.

* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road pup Giants at a rate of 58 percent and the Over is picking up 64 percent of the totals action.

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**Udog** · 09-10-2017, 10:02 AM

NFL Week 1 lines that make you go hmmm...

Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmm…” in Week 1:

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-8.5, 40.5)

This is probably is one of the worst games of the opening schedule. Like many other first games of the year, the opening line has jumped significantly since it was first posted. Opening as 6-point favorites, the Bills are now favored as high as they’ve ever been in Nevada for a long time.

The general movement began when Bills money came in early more as an anti-Jet statement. But the line has split sportsbooks around the state after the Tyrod Taylor injury. Lines vary from a low of -7.5 to a high of -9.

My feeling is if Taylor does in fact play, the -7.5 looks like a foregone conclusion to move towards the higher number. Backup Nathan Peterson has been solid in his brief outings during the preseason but if he starts, the game will look a lot different than when he was playing against a store of fringe players and bench warmers.

I’m seeing this line to continue to climb where most to all of the sportsbooks will see a consensus of -8.5 or -9 by the opening kickoff. In that case, as bad as they seem, the Jets may be a good bargain. The Bills haven’t proved to be able to win, let alone cover one of the largest spreads of week one.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+1, 48)

The Eagles have received all of the love since this game opened as Washington the 2.5-point favorites in the summer.

Personally, I think the betting public has totally miscalculated this game. Washington has won the last five games between them and they should prove worthy of our consideration in this season opening game.

With so little to go on as far as data support, one just has to view the teams for their face value. Washington has tremendous offensive power but had difficulty landing in the end zone once they were in striking position last season. There should be an improvement there, particularly with the Eagles vulnerable defensive backfield.

Although these teams are not separated by much, the Redskins should be able to muster up a win in their home opener. Anytime you don’t have to give up any points at home, there has to be value in that.

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 42)

This line moved 6.5 points to the current number with the announcement that Colts QB Andrew Luck will be out. Scott Tolzien gets the start and though I totally understand the drop off between the two, a 6.5-point jump putting the Rams as a half point over the key three barrier, has me believing the Colts are a value play in Week 1.

I’m not going to hang my hat on this Rams team until they can prove they can compete. Their predictive 5.5 team wins adds fuel to my speculation that this team will have a very long season. The Colts (with Luck in) are around the nine-win level. Even without their starter, the Colts have enough on each side of the line to win this outright, or at the least, keep this very close.

There’s been enough time for the Colts to have somewhat gelled without Luck and an opening road game against a team like the Rams has to have put some energy on their sideline that they can steal a win here. There’s good value with that hook and we’ll take it as long as it remains on the board that high.

**Udog** · 09-10-2017, 10:04 AM

NFL betting action heavy and somewhat surprising for Week 1

With apologies to Christmas, this is the most wonderful time of the year. College football is in full swing, and the first NFL regular-season Sunday is on tap this weekend. We check in on the action for a 12-game NFL Sunday sked, with insights from Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Mike Jerome, lines manager for offshore sportsbook TopBet.eu.

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions – Open: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -1; Move: Pick; Move: +1; Move: +1.5; Move: +2; Move: +2.5

Arizona is coming off a disappointing season, while Detroit is coming off a playoff appearance, but bettors have made a big move toward the Cardinals in this 1 p.m. ET contest. Bruce Arians’ troops went 7-9 SU and 6-10 ATS in 2016, after reaching the NFC title game two seasons ago.

Detroit was 9-4 SU (8-5 ATS) through 13 games last season and in control of its destiny atop the NFC North. However, the Lions dumped their last three regular-season tilts SU and ATS, ended up with a wild-card berth, and got pounded at Seattle 26-6 as an 8-point underdog to finish 9-8 SU (8-9 ATS).

“A lot of people were thinking the Lions were fortunate last year to even make the playoffs,” Simbal said. “It’s indicative of the action we’ve seen on this game. The sharp action really drove this price from Arizona being a 3-point ‘dog to becoming the favorite.”

CG books, including at The Cosmopolitan and the Venetian on the Vegas Strip, opened this game back in April, though much of the movement has come in the last couple of weeks. TopBet.eu also posted this matchup months ago at Detroit -3 and had the Lions -2 on Aug. 25 before things really began moving.

“We got a sharp play on Arizona +2, so we moved to Cards +1,” Jerome said. “On Aug. 28, we moved to a pick ‘em, on Sept. 2, we moved to Arizona -1.”

The Cards climbed to -2 by Friday and -2.5 Saturday. Jerome said 77 percent of the money and 80 percent of the tickets are on Arizona.

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans – Open: Pick; Move: +1; Move: Pick; Move: +1; Move: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -2; Move: -2.5

Last year, Oakland was putting the finishing touches on its best season in more than a decade when star QB Derek Carr broke his leg in Week 16. The Raiders still finished 12-4 SU (10-6 ATS) but fell into the wild-card playoff round, where they lost to Houston 27-14 as a 4-point road underdog.

Tennessee went 9-7 SU (7-9 ATS) in 2016, missing the playoffs after losing a tiebreaker with Houston for the AFC South title. But the Titans finished on a strong note, winning four of their last five, and bettors are lining up behind them for this 1 p.m. ET start, as this game has seen significant movement in just the past two weeks.

“On Aug. 29, we got sharp action on Tennessee pick 'em, so we moved Titans to -1,” Jerome said, adding the line went to -2 a day later and to -2.5 (-125) on Wednesday.

While the sharps have played Tennessee, Jerome said Oakland is still getting plenty of attention, with 69 percent of the money and 73 percent of bets.

CG Technology actually opened Oakland -1 back in April, then the game flipped to Titans -1 on Aug. 29 and got to Titans -2.5 on Thursday.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns – Open: +9; Move: +9.5; Move: +9; Move: +9.5

Pittsburgh is among the teams near the top of the Super Bowl futures odds. The Steelers went 11-5 SU (9-7 ATS) last year, winning their last seven games of the regular season (5-1-1 ATS) to take the AFC North. Mike Tomlin’s squad then won and cashed against Miami in the wild-card round and at Kansas City in the divisional round, before falling at New England 36-17 getting 5.5 points in the AFC title game.

Cleveland had a season to forget, which can describe most Cleveland seasons. The Browns went a paltry 1-15 SU and 3-12-1 ATS, yet for some reason, sharp players were on Cleveland seemingly every week. That trend hasn’t yet stopped for this 1 p.m. ET contest.

“Nobody really thinks (the Steelers) are gonna lose this game, but the sharp players have taken the points with the Browns, and as we know, the public is always gonna back Pittsburgh when they’re playing Cleveland,” Simbal said. “So we have a real kind of Pros vs. Joes matchup here. The books are gonna be siding with the pros in this one, definitely needing the Browns. The sharps were on Cleveland last year a lot, and they got burned with it all year. They’re hoping that maybe this year, a change of fortune.”

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams – Open: +3; Move: +2.5; Move: +2; Move: +1.5; Move: Pick; Move: -1.5; Move: -2.5; Move: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -4

Indianapolis went 8-8 SU (7-8-1 ATS) last year, alternating SU wins and losses over its final seven games. So the Colts are hoping to become a consistent winner, but already face a setback as they won’t have Andrew Luck today, while he continues recovering from offseason shoulder surgery.

As Luck’s absence became more likely late last month, the line began rumbling toward pick, and since becoming official last week, it steamed toward Los Angeles, which is now a 4-point home favorite for this 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff. The Rams won three of their first four games SU and ATS in 2016, but got just one win the rest of the way, finishing 4-12 SU (4-11-1 ATS).

“The Colts opened a 3-point favorite here, that was when Luck was questionable but we figured him to play,” Simbal said. “Now we know Luck is not playing, and we’re going to flip the line all the way to a (4-point) favorite for the Rams. The Luck injury was about a 6-, 7-point swing, so clearly a big variance with Andrew Luck not playing.”

At TopBet.eu, the Colts also opened -3, but the line is now Rams -4.5. Jerome said there’s not much sharp action on the game, but a solid majority of cash and tickets are on Los Angeles.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 ( Thur., Sept. 7 - Mon., Sept. 11)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 ( Thur., Sept. 7 - Mon., Sept. 11)

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