The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

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Betting Recap - Week 16
December 26, 2017

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 16 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 13-3
Against the Spread 8-7-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 11-5
Against the Spread 9-5-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 3-13

HAPPY HOLIDAYS, EVERYONE!!!

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Seahawks (+4.5, ML +195) at Cowboys, 21-12
49ers (+4, ML +180) vs. Rams, 44-33
Bengals (+3, ML +155) vs. Lions, 26-17

The largest favorite to cover
Chiefs (-11) vs. Dolphins, 29-13
Patriots (-11) vs. Bills, 37-16
Vikings (-9) at Packers, 16-0
Steelers (-9) at Texans, 34-6

Kansas City Barbeque

-- The Kansas City Chiefs are finally back on track after taking a few weeks off in the middle of the season. The Chiefs opened 5-0 SU/ATS in the first five weeks, went 1-6 SU/ATS over the next seven weeks, and now are rolling again as they have clinched the AFC West Division and heading for the playoffs. Since Week 14 the Chiefs are 3-0 SU/ATS and they have found their defense again, too. The 'under' is a perfect 3-0 over the past three weeks, and 6-1 across the past seven as they look like the contender they were in the beginning of the season rather than the pretender we saw for half of October and most of November.

Feeling Minnesota

-- The Minnesota Vikings are showing no signs of letting up as they march to the playoffs in hopes of becoming the first team in National Football League history to play the Super Bowl in their own stadium. In fact, as this rate they might not have to leave their own building for the playoffs, either. The Vikings have allowed single-digit point totals in four of the past six games as their defense reigns supreme, and we all know defense wins championships. Minnesota has won 10 of their past 11 games and they're an impressive 8-1 ATS over the past nine games, too.

Total Recall

-- Vegas expected the Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans game (52) to be a shootout, but for the second time in three weeks this NFC South Division battle went 'under'. They met on Dec. 7 and the Falcons won 20-17 with the same exact 52-point line, and the Saints won the rematch 23-13 in the Big Easy on Christmas Eve. Bettors should have known better, as the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 across the past four games for Atlanta and 9-3 over the past 12 outings. The 'under' has been a semi-frequent occurence for the Saints, too, going 7-4 across their past 11 outings.

-- A shootout was expected in what was essentially an elimination game between the Seattle Seahawks-Dallas Cowboys. It wasn't close to happening, and it didn't help that the first half was completely scoreless. The pace picked up in the middle quarters, but it safely went 'under' with the Seahawks winning 21-12. Tampa Bay-Carolina (47) was also expected to be rather high scoring, especially with the Bucs ranked last in pass defense. However, the NFC South battle turned into a field-goal fest, with just two offensive touchdowns, a special teams touchdown and seven field goals.

-- Even with a line of 36.5, Cleveland-Chicago never threatened to go 'over' the total. The Bears led the game 6-3 at halftime in a battle which resembled a preseason contest. In fact, these teams meet frequently on the exhibition schedule. The 'under' is 4-0-1 for Chicago over the past five outings, with the 'under' going 3-1 over the past four as these two non-contenders limp to the finish line. The other two games with totals in the 30's -- Denver-Washington (39) and N.Y. Giants-Arizona (39.5) -- both cashed the 'under'. In fact, the Giants were blanked, one of two teams to get shut out in Week 16 to help 'under' bettors.

-- The 'Under' went 1-0 from the lone primetime game Saturday, with no Sunday night contest due to the holiday. The 'over' is 25-22-1 (53.1%) through the first 48 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's Oakland-Philadelphia (46) game still pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Chargers RB Melvin Gordon (ankle) left with an ankle injury, and he was unable to return after the fourth-quarter injury. His status for the regular-season finale is up in the air.

-- Titans RB DeMarco Murray (knee) suffered what is believed to be a sprained lateral collateral ligament in his knee, with an MRI pending.

Looking Ahead

-- The Cowboys and Eagles meet in Week 17. Dallas was eliminated from playoff contention, while the Eagles continue to jockey for position in the NFC playoff picture. Philly went to Dallas and humbled the Cowboys 37-9 back on Nov. 19 on Sunday Night Football, but that also came with QB Carson Wentz under center before his season-ending knee injury two weeks ago. The Cowboys are struggling down the stretch, going 2-4-1 ATS over the past seven games with the 'under' going 7-1 over the past eight, including that first matchup with the Eagles.

-- The Browns and Steelers met in Week 1, with Pittsburgh winning 21-18 in Cleveland as a 10-point favorite. It was a rare cover for the Browns, who are 1-7 ATS over their past eight and 2-12 ATS since that opening game loss. In fact, the three-point loss in the opener might have been Cleveland's best performance of the season. Can they avoid NFL history and an 0-16 record by upsetting their rivals in the Steel City?

-- The Falcons enter an important NFC South battle with the Panthers as a three-point favorite. These sides met in Charlotte back on Nov. 5, and it was the Panthers coming away with a 20-17 victory with the 'under' cashing. It will be the first meeting between these teams are Atlanta's brand new Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but Julio Jones went for 300 yards receiving in the most recent meeting in Atlanta, something Carolina will be working to avoid.

-- Both the Packers and Lions will be home for the holidays, as both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Lions are looking to finish up strong, and they exorcised many demons with a 30-17 win in Green Bay back on Nov. 6. Detroit has covered two of their past three games and they're playing much better, while the 'under' has hit in three straight. Green Bay has their backup quarterback taking them to the finish line, and they're 4-6 ATS over the past 10 outings. Sunday's 'under', a result of a shutout loss to Minnesota, was the first under after four consecutive 'over' results.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL notebook: Titans RB Murray expected to miss season finale with knee injury
December 25, 2017

The Tennessee Titans can clinch a playoff berth if they beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, but they probably will have to do it without running back DeMarco Murray.

Murray is not expected to play because of a knee injury, according to an NFL Network report Monday.

Titans coach Mike Mularkey said after Sunday's 27-23 loss to the Los Angeles Rams that Murray's prospects for playing the following week were not good. Now it seems the chances are close to zero.

Murray is the Titans' No. 1 back and has rushed for 659 yards on 184 carries.

-- Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Jaelen Strong confirmed via Instagram that he suffered a torn ACL during Sunday's loss to the San Francisco 49ers.

The third-year receiver was injured during the fourth quarter of the 44-33 loss. He caught three passes for 38 yards and a touchdown in his first game with the Jaguars.

"My first reception goes for a TD. IM SO EXCITED to finally be out here w GANG grinding w my dogs and then I tear my ACL," Strong said in a post Sunday night.

On Monday he added: "This lil setback setting me up for a greater comeback..."

--Landon Collins' run of 47 consecutive starts will end next week, because the New York Giants' safety suffered a broken forearm in Sunday's game against the Arizona Cardinals.

Collins was still in the game when Cardinals quarterback Drew Stanton took a knee to end the second quarter. Collins did not think the injury was serious until tests at halftime indicated he had a fracture.

He cried when he saw the result of the X-rays, the New York Daly News reported.

"It's the worst feeling in the world, to not be able to play with my boys, that's what hurt me the most," Collins said, according to the Daily News. "I came in here crying. That's what hurt me the most. It's not the injury because I can try to fight through an injury. But to not be able to play because it's broke(n)."

No decision has been made regarding whether surgery will be required.

-- The Seattle Seahawks' euphoria about their critical victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday may be tempered by the actions and words of All-Pro safety Earl Thomas after the game, when he suggested he might want to become a Cowboy.

Following Seattle's 21-12 victory in Arlington, Texas, which kept the Seahawks' playoff hopes alive while ending the Cowboys' postseason chances, Thomas ran after Cowboys coach Jason Garrett as they approached the Cowboys' locker room.

They spoke briefly, and Edward Egros of FOX 4 TV in Dallas reported Thomas was heard to say, "If you have a chance to get me, come get me."

Surprisingly, Thomas expanded on his comments when questioned by reporters.

"I don't literally mean, 'Come get me now,'" he said. "I'm still in the prime of my career. I still want to be here. But when Seattle kicks me to the curb, please, the Cowboys, come get me. This is the only place I'd rather be if I get kicked to the curb."

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 17
December 30, 2017

The ‘under’ produced an eye-opening 13-3 record last week, which was the most lopsided total results we’ve seen this season. Only four teams were able to score 30 or more points while five were held to one score or less and that includes a pair of shutouts. Through 16 weeks, the ‘under’ holds a 124-112-4 (52.5%) record. Make a note that every game in Week 17 is a divisional matchup and the ‘under’ has produced a 47-24-1 (66%) mark in those contests this season.

Line Moves

Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 17 openers posted last Sunday and throughout the week at BookMaker.eu.

Carolina at Atlanta: 47 to 45
New Orleans at Tampa Bay: 50 to 48
N.Y. Jets at New England: 46 to 43 ½
Cleveland at Pittsburgh: 41 to 36 ½
Dallas at Philadelphia: 43 to 39
Oakland at L.A. Chargers: 44 to 42
Arizona at Seattle: 41 to 38 ½
Kansas City at Denver: 41 to 38
San Francisco at L.A. Rams: 46 to 43 1/2

Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu. explained the stance of their shop entering the final week of the regular season. He said, “As with everything in Week 17, we try to keep limits lower than normal because of the unknown. A lot of these totals are starting to look like the last week of the preseason.”

While there have been a bunch of quick adjustments this week, BookMaker.eu is focused on a trio of totals headed into the weekend. Cooley noted, “We’ve got decent liability on that Cleveland-Pitt under. The most exposure at this point is the Chiefs-Broncos under as that’s been hit repeatedly by the pros. The Dallas-Philly total is one-sided as well, but we’ll get some over money from the public to offset some.”

Handicapping Week 17

The last week of the regular season is often the most difficult to handicap for both sides and totals. With that being said, I’d urge you to tread lightly on the meaningless matchups.

WEEK 17 TOTAL RESULTS (2012-2016)
Year Over/Under
2016 9-7
2015 5-11
2014 6-10
2013 6-10
2012 8-8

After watching the 'under' produce solid results in Week 17 from 2012 through 2015, we noticed a slight 'over' spike last season when you look at the above table.

Based on playoff implications, there are six meaningless matchups on Sunday. Hopefully you’ll be able to survive the first wave of action and still be alive for the meaningful matchups in Week 17. Lastly, keep an eye on weather as there are expected to be some frigid conditions in the Northern part of the country.

Green Bay at Detroit: The ‘over’ has hit in four straight five of the last six meetings between the pair. Packers quarterback Brett Hundley was moving the ball before Aaron Rodgers came back but was blanked last week at home to the Vikings. Detroit’s offense has been in a tailspin lately but I wouldn’t be surprised to see fireworks inside.

Houston at Indianapolis: The ‘under’ has connected in three of the last four between the pair. It’s a low total (40 ½) and I would expect a heavy dose of running back Frank Gore for the Colts. Wide Receiver DeAndre Hopkins (calf) is ‘out’ for the Texans.

Washington at N.Y. Giants: The pair have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in the last four meetings, which includes Washington’s 20-10 win over New York on Nov. 23. The Giants offense showed some life in a 34-29 versus the Eagles a couple weeks ago but followed it up with zero points versus Arizona last week. Washington is on a 3-0 ‘under’ run and its defense has allowed 15 and 11 points the last two weeks versus teams below .500, which is exaclty what New York is.

Dallas at Philadelphia: In Week 17 last season, Dallas rested its starters and Philadelphia earned a 27-13 win over their backups. The Eagles are expected to play their starters but nobody knows for how long. The ‘under’ has cashed in the last two meetings and the Cowboys have watched seven of their last eight go the low side.

Kansas City at Denver: The ‘over’ is on a 4-0-1 run in this series but early action is backing the ‘under’ in this matchup. Kansas City wills start rookie quarterback Patrick Mahomes and he’ll be facing a quality defense on the road. Denver has watched the ‘under’ go 5-1 in its last six games.

San Francisco at L.A. Rams: Bettors continue to ride the 49ers behind QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who is now 6-0 as a NFL starter. I would expect the 49ers to score but the Rams are resting key starters and I can’t see that offense doing much in this spot. Los Angeles captured a wild 41-39 shootout in Week 3 on the road but it’s very doubtful to see a repeat performance. The ‘under’ is on a 4-2 run in this series, which includes the first match this season.

Heavy Expectations

There are three other games at 1:00 p.m. ET where the game is only meaningful for one team and all of those clubs are expected to win with the oddsmakers listing them as healthy home favorites.

N.Y. Jets at New England (-15): The ‘under’ is on a 3-0 run in this series and this is the lowest total (43 ½) that this matchup has seen since 2013. It’s going to be cold and I would expect a calculated game-plan for New England to get the win and move toward the playoffs. The Jets could use two quarterbacks (Bryce Petty, Christian Hackenberg) on Sunday and that’s never a good situation.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-11): The Steelers were laying a heavy number but they’ve conceded the No. 1 seed in the AFC and will rest players. The books are hoping for points with one-sided ‘under’ action and it’s been series that has been dominated by the low side, going 8-2 in the last 10 encounters.

Chicago at Minnesota (-11): I thought the Vikings would rest players too knowing they need the Saints to win or the Panthers to lose to clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Minnesota has dropped 38 points in each of its last two home games versus Chicago. The Bears are off a win but they’ve averaged 13.3 PPG after a victory this season, which has helped the ‘under’ go 4-1.

Meaningful Matchups

Cincinnati at Baltimore: The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight, which includes Baltimore’s 20-0 win at Cincinnati in Week 1. The Ravens have done a great job of dominating teams not headed to the playoffs, only allowing 11.6 PPG.

Buffalo at Miami: The ‘over’ is on a 4-0-1 run in this series and that includes the ‘push’ (40) in their recent meeting in Week 15 when Buffalo stopped Miami 24-16. Both the Bills and Dolphins haven’t been great offensively of late and yet the total (42) has been pushed up for the rematch.

Carolina at Atlanta: The Panthers nipped the Falcons 20-17 at home on Nov. 5 and the ‘under’ (42) connected. Even though the ‘over’ went 2-0 last season, this series watched the ‘under’ cash in six straight prior to those results. The Falcons defense has been great at home (17.7 PPG) and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-2 in their new digs.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: This is the highest total (48) on the board yet this series has watched the ‘under’ connect in five of the last six meetings. New Orleans needs the win to clinch the division but could find itself in a dogfight at this venue. Tampa Bay has watched the ‘under’ go 6-1 at home.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: The ‘over’ has cashed in four straight between the pair and the Titans appear to be the only team to have figured out the defense of the Jaguars, averaging 33 points per game during this stretch. Jacksonville announced that its starters will play and a win would likely have them facing the Bills or Chargers next week, instead of the Titans again.

Oakland at L.A. Chargers: Three of the last four meetings have seen the ‘under’ connect and all of those games were decided by three points or less. The line on the Chargers (-7) is definitely inflated and I expect Oakland to keep this game competitive but neither offense is in great form. Oakland has seen the ‘under’ cash in its last six games and the Chargers bring a 5-0 ‘under’ run into this matchup.

Arizona at Seattle: The Seahawks need a win and some help to make the playoffs while the Cardinals will look to play spoilers. The visitor has dominated this series recently, winning five and earning a tie in the other outcome. Arizona has scored 34 and 39 in its last two trips up North but it’s hard to imagine this short-handed offense doing the same kind of damage. Seattle’s defense has looked better against losing clubs (18.3 PPG) and I would expect a similar effort in the home finale.

Fearless Predictions

The holiday weekend ($220) didn’t go as planned and the goal of getting the overall bankroll into the black by the playoffs isn’t going to happen unfortunately. After 64 plays through 16 weeks, the juice has us in the red ($570). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy New Year to you and yours!

Best Over: Jacksonville-Tennessee 42

Best Under: Washington-N.Y. Giants 39 ½

Best Team Total: Over Detroit Lions 24 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over 29 ½ Kansas City-Denver
Over 30 Chicago-Minnesota
Under 45 Cleveland-Pittsburgh

[StarDust Bum]

B]Vegas Money Moves - Week 17
December 30, 2017[/B]

It's the final weekend of the NFL regular season and six teams are still vying for one of the final three Wild Card spots. Some teams are trying to improve their positions and get as many home field games in the playoffs as possible, some teams have been eliminated and others are resting players with their playoff position set. It's in those games with players being rested that poses the biggest headache for Nevada bookmakers.

"It's a tricky week," MGM Resorts race and sports VP Jay Rood said about the annual Week 17 dilemma. "Games with zero implications, we put a circle on the game (half limit), but for most of our house players, those limits dont mean anything."

Rood says half of his NFL games posted this week have a circle attached.

"I think with everyone scoreboard watching, we're going to have some interesting halftime lines," he said.

Just because a team has to win, doesn't mean they're good enough to do it. And just because a team rests its players doesn't mean the back-ups are going to tank. For the teams that have nothing to play for at all, don't count them out, either. These guys are all pros and they have jobs to do. They need to look good on film for future job security so you would assume that they can't afford to look bad on Sunday.

The game that takes center stage this week was the Rams opening as 6.5-point home favorites against the 49ers. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted the first number last Sunday night before the Eagles win against the Raiders on Monday night in Week 16. Bettors immediately jumped on the 49ers figuring the Rams would rest with not much to gain. The Westgate dropped the Rams to -3.5 on Christmas Day. It was pick 'em by Wednesday and by Friday it was the 49ers -4.

"Overall action so far has been light," Rood said Saturday afternoon. "The only game moving real aggressively has been the 49ers. We're going to need the Rams pretty good. It's our biggest decision of the week."

Rood had opened the Rams -4 on Monday morning with expectations that quarterback Jared Goof and running back Todd Gurley, two legitimate MVP candidates, would be playing. Both were officially declared 'out' on Wednesday. Let's say Goff is worth six-points to the point-spread, relative to his back-up Sean Mannion, and let's make Gurley worth two-points, the highest rating for a RB in the NFL, along with Dallas Cowboys back Ezekiel Elliott.

The 49ers have been red hot with QB Jimmy Garoppolo winning all four of his starts with San Francisco and they're playing like they don't want the season to end. They've also covered the last four meetings in this series, which includes a 41-39 loss to the Rams back in September. However, something to chew on come Sunday is that the 49ers have lost their last eight games when listed as favorites.

The Chiefs are also resting key personnel with nothing to gain in Week 17. That means QB Alex Smith and wide receiver Tyreek Hill are 'out' and tight end Travis Kelce is 'doubtful' to play. Rookie QB Patrick Mahomes gets the nod under center and this will be his first start as a quarterback in the NFL.

"We opened Denver -3.5 and have taken lots of parlay money on them, but our move up to -4 was just staying in line with the market," Rood said.

The Broncos are starting QB Paxton Lynch, giving their former No. 1 draft pick one last look before making a decision on where he fits in, if at all in Denver's future plans. If Trevor Siemian was starting at home for this one, a Broncos play would be wise but Lynch has been a disaster, so be careful here.

The Eagles have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC and have no reason to activate any players of major value when Dallas visits.

"We've seen lots of Cowboys action so far," said Rood who has Dallas posted at -3 -120, "but mostly from non-sharp players."

The Redskins go into MetLife Stadium to face the Giants with each team having nothing to prove. It's been a disappointment for each team, but the public has a side they like here. "The Redskins (-3 -120) have taken one-sided action, both large and small money siding with them," Rood said.

The Chargers are outside looking in the playoffs, but still alive. They need to win at home against the Raiders, get the Titans to lose and have the Ravens win.

"We've had good two-way action on the Chargers-Raiders game," Rood said. "Nothing getting us over-extended; Raiders volume has been at 3-to-2 on parlays and 2-to-1 on straight bets."

Raiders money took all the +8 and +7.5s leaving most sitting with the Chargers -7.

"Atlanta-Carolina is split, there's been lots of (public) money on the Saints and the bridge-jumpers have been laying the Patriots money-line," Rood said.

A bridge-jumper is someone who lays the big price of a "can't lose situation" and the side loses. The term bridge-jumper first came about with bettors who place a wager to show on a massive horse-racing favorite and then the horse runs out of the money (1st, 2nd or 3rd). Dam-divers is another popular term here in Las Vegas thanks to our massive Hoover Dam in Boulder City.

Anyway, the Patriots are -1,600 (Bet $1,600 to win $100) on the money-line to win outright (no points) at the Mirage with the Jets (5-10) take-back at +900 (Bet $100 to win $900). All the Patriots have to do to clinch the AFC's No. 1 seed throughout the playoffs is win or have the Steelers lose at home to the Browns. Two years ago the Patriots lost their final two regular season games in a similar situation, except both were on the road at the Jets, 26-20, and at Miami, 20-10. Denver got home field because of those losses and went on to beat the Patriots in Denver in the AFC title game, and they also won the Super Bowl over Carolina.

Something else for the bridge-jumpers to consider is that Tom Brady is in a funk his past four games where he's tossed just four touchdowns while throwing five interceptions. This isn't the same Brady from last season that won his final 10 games (9-1 ATS) and eventually ended with a Super Bowl win.

When they met at MetLife Stadium in Week 6, the Patriots won 24-17, but failed to cover the nine points. It was the third straight meeting between the pair that stayed 'under' and it also made the Jets 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with New England.

The Patriots were as high as -16, but most books around the state have dropped them down to -15 or -15.5. The Jets are starting Bryce Petty again at quarterback, but something that stands out the most with the Jets is going 9-5-1 ATS. They've been competitive most of the season which is why head coach Todd Bowles just got a contract extension.

Here's a look at some sharp and public plays at a few books in Nevada:

Jason McCormick, Station Casinos
Sharp: Buccaneers, Raiders, Dolphins
Public: Saints, Seahawks, Vikings

Jason Simbal, CG Technology
Sharp: Jaguars
Public: 49ers

Marc Nelson, Atlantis Reno
Sharp: Buccaneers, Jaguars, Jets, Browns, 49ers
Public: Falcons, Saints, Raiders, Seahawks

[StarDust Bum]

Pick Six - Week 17
December 28, 2017

Week 16 Record: 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS
Overall Record: 46-50 SU, 42-50-2 ATS

Panthers at Falcons (-3 ½, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Carolina
Record: 11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS, 9-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 14/1

The Panthers clinched their fourth playoff berth in the past five seasons by rallying past the Buccaneers, 22-19 to wrap up their home slate at 6-2. Carolina failed to cash as 10-point favorites, but quarterback Cam Newton scrambled for the game-winning touchdown with 35 seconds remaining to improve to 3-2 inside the NFC South. The Panthers need a victory and a New Orleans loss to wrap up the division title, as Carolina owns a solid 5-1 SU/ATS record in the role of an underdog this season.

Atlanta
Record: 9-6 SU, 6-9 ATS, 10-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Falcons control their destiny for a chance to defend their NFC crown with a win on Sunday. Atlanta was tripped up at New Orleans last Sunday, 23-13 as 5 ½-point underdogs, while cashing its fourth consecutive UNDER. The Falcons look to avenge a 20-17 loss at Carolina as three-point favorites in Week 9 as Atlanta squandered an early 10-0 lead and standout wide receiver Julio Jones dropped a sure touchdown pass in the fourth quarter. Jones hauled in 118 yards in the loss, while compiling a franchise-best 300 yards in a 48-33 home victory over Carolina last season.

Best Bet: Falcons -3 ½

Saints (-7, 50 ½) at Buccaneers – 4:25 PM EST

New Orleans
Record: 11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS, 8-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

The Saints are back in the postseason for the first time since 2013 as New Orleans is one victory away from hosting a first round playoff game. New Orleans is coming off a pair of home wins over Atlanta and New York, while holding four straight opponents to 21 points or fewer. Eight of the last nine meetings at Raymond James Stadium have finished UNDER the total, as the Saints have limited the Buccaneers to 20 points or less in each of the past four road matchups.

Tampa Bay
Record: 4-11 SU, 5-9-1 ATS, 8-7 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The Buccaneers close out a disappointing season off five consecutive losses, including three straight defeats by three points or fewer. Tampa Bay cashed in losses to Atlanta and Carolina, but the Bucs are 0-5 in NFC South play this season after compiling a 4-2 division mark in 2016. The Bucs will look to close out their home schedule at 4-4 with a victory, while trying to avenge a 30-10 defeat at the Superdome in Week 9.

Best Bet: Saints -7

Cardinals at Seahawks (-9 ½, 38 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Arizona
Record: 7-8 SU, 5-9-1 ATS, 10-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The Cardinals attempt to win consecutive games for the first time this season on Sunday after destroying the Giants in Week 16 at home, 23-0 as three-point favorites. Arizona owns an 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS record in 2017 off a victory, while scoring 17 points or less in all six games in this situation. The Cardinals have struggled away from University of Phoenix Stadium by going 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS, while posting an 0-4 SU/ATS mark as a road underdog.

Seattle
Record: 9-6 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, 9-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Seahawks stayed alive in the NFC playoff race by knocking off the Cowboys as 4 ½-point road underdogs last week, 21-12 to snap a two-game skid. Seattle racked up only 136 yards of offense, but if the Seahawks win on Sunday coupled with a Falcons’ loss to Carolina, Pete Carroll’s team will return to the playoffs for the sixth straight season. The Seahawks have slumped to a 1-3 ATS record as a home favorite this season, while losing in three of the past four home matchups with the Cardinals.

Best Bet: Cardinals +9 ½

Jaguars at Titans (-3, 42) – 4:25 PM EST

Jacksonville
Record: 10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS, 8-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

Unfortunately, the Jaguars have nothing to play for as they wrapped up the AFC South title last Sunday thanks to Tennessee’s home defeat to Los Angeles. Jacksonville was tripped up at surging San Francisco, 44-33 to snap a three-game winning streak. The defense hit a flat spot following a three-game stretch of allowing a total of 41 points, while falling to 1-3 against NFC West opponents. The home team had won six consecutive meetings in this series prior to Tennessee’s 37-16 blowout at Jacksonville in Week 2.

Tennessee
Record: 8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS, 9-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The Titans saved their losing for the worst time after winning six of seven games, as Tennessee tries to snap a three-game skid on Sunday. Granted, the three defeats came by a total of 11 points a trio of NFC West squads (Arizona, San Francisco, Los Angeles), but the Titans control their destiny as a victory against Jacksonville gets them in the playoffs. The Titans own a solid 4-1 ATS record the last five games, while going 4-1 inside AFC South play this season.

Best Bet: Jaguars +3

Bills (-2 ½, 42) at Dolphins – 4:25 PM EST

Buffalo
Record: 8-7 SU, 8-6-1 ATS, 8-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The Bills have gone through plenty of ups and downs this season as Buffalo sits on the doorstep of their first playoff berth since 1999. However, Buffalo needs a victory plus a Baltimore loss, or a win and losses by Tennessee and Los Angeles. The Bills cruised past the Dolphins in Week 15 at home, 24-16, but Buffalo has struggled on the road this season by compiling a 2-5 mark. Buffalo has lost two of its past three visits to Miami, while dropping four straight road games inside the AFC East.

Miami
Record: 6-9 SU, 5-8-2 ATS, 8-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

A lost season for the Dolphins comes to a conclusion on Sunday as Miami tries to avoid a 10-loss campaign. Miami has won two straight home games, including a 27-20 triumph over New England as 10 ½-point underdogs. The Dolphins can finish 5-3 at Hard Rock Stadium with a victory over the Bills, but Miami has compiled a dreadful 2-6-1 ATS record in the final nine games. Miami has been one of the top OVER teams in the league down the stretch by hitting the OVER in eight of the final 10 games.

Best Bet: Dolphins +2 ½

Raiders at Chargers (-7 ½, 42 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Oakland
Record: 6-9 SU, 5-8-2 ATS, 10-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The Raiders are stumbling to the finish line by losing their last three games, including a 19-10 setback at Philadelphia on Monday as 10-point underdogs. In all eight of Oakland’s defeats, the Raiders have been limited to 17 points or less, while cashing six consecutive UNDERS. In one of those low-scoring setbacks, the Raiders fell to the Chargers at the Coliseum, 17-16 in Week 6 as three-point favorites. Each of the past four meetings between the Raiders and Chargers have been decided by three points or less, while the Silver and Black will be playing in Los Angeles for the first time since moving away after the 1994 season.

Los Angeles
Record: 8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS, 11-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

Even if the Chargers fall short of the playoffs, it has been a remarkable turnaround following an 0-4 start. L.A. has posted an 8-3 record the last 11 games, including four consecutive victories at the StubHub Center. The Chargers are riding a five-game UNDER streak after squeezing past the Jets last Sunday, 14-7, while the Lightning Bolts have scored 19 points or fewer in three of the previous four games.

Best Bet: Chargers -7 ½

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SuperContest Picks - Week 17
December 30, 2017

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8

Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16

Week 17

1) San Francisco -3 (1045)
2) Cleveland +11 (666)
3) Washington -3 (596)
4) Carolina +3.5 (585)
5) Indianapolis -3.5 (583)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 16 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Cincinnati (+9.5) 437 Baltimore (-9.5) 255
Green Bay (+6.5) 234 Detroit (-6.5) 369
Buffalo (-2.5) 457 Miami (+2.5) 369
Carolina (+3.5) 585 Atlanta (-3.5) 410
New Orleans (-7) 431 Tampa Bay (+7) 312
Jacksonville (+3) 460 Tennessee (-3) 364
N.Y. Jets (+15.5) 372 New England (-15.5) 220
Houston (+3.5) 121 Indianapolis (-3.5) 583
Cleveland (+11) 666 Pittsburgh (+11) 240
Washington (-3) 596 N.Y. Giants (+3) 179
Chicago (+11.5) 243 Minnesota (-11.5) 379
Dallas (-3) 371 Philadelphia (+3) 251
Oakland (+7.5) 393 L.A. Chargers (-7.5) 300
Arizona (+9.5) 402 Seattle (-9.5) 256
Kansas City (+3.5) 352 Denver (-3.5) 189
San Francisco (-3) 1045 L.A. Rams (+3) 189

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 0-5 0-5 0%
2 3-2 3-7 30%
3 2-3 5-10 33%
4 4-1 9-11 45%
5 1-4 10-15 40%
6 2-3 12-18 40%
7 0-5 12-23 34%
8 2-3 14-26 35%
9 3-2 17-28 38%
10 1-4 18-32 36%
11 4-1 22-33 40%
12 3-2 25-35 42%
13 5-0 30-35 46%
14 3-2 33-37 47%
15 2-1-2 35-39-2 47%
16 2-3 37-42-2 47%
17 - - -

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Essential Week 17 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

The Steelers-Browns spread moved 10 points with word that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin might rest starting running back Le'Veon Bell and starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-11.5, 39.5)

The Vikings will earn the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoff seeding and a first round bye if they beat the Bears. The fate of Bears coaching staff is tenuous to say the least. Chicago is 15-32 straight up under head coach John Fox.

Minnesota smashed Chicago 38-10 when the two teams faced each other in Week 17 last season.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened with Vikes giving as many as 13 points to the Bears but most shops are dealing Bears +11.5 on Saturday. The total has dropped a half point from the opening line of 40.

TRENDS:

*The Vikings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with losing records.
*The under is 5-0 in the Bears’ last five games.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5, 39)

There is nothing at stake for either team in this game. Eagles head coach Doug Pederson has said all his starters will play but probably not for the whole game. The Cowboys will play all their healthy starters according to head coach Jason Garrett.

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as short chalk but the line quickly flipped once the game became meaningless to Philly.

TRENDS:

*The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
*The under is 7-1 in the Cowboys’ last eight games.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-14.5, 43.5)

Nothing is on the line for the Jets who’ve been eliminated from the playoffs for weeks now. Head coach Todd Bowles had his contract extended which removes his feet from the fire of the New York media. He won’t feel pressured to win a game his team is a two-touchdown underdog to keep from being fired.

The Patriots need to win to secure the top overall seed in the AFC playoffs. The game-time temperature for this game is expected to be around 11 degrees F.

LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened as high as Pats -16.5 and are still at that spread. Others are dealing -15.5 and 14.5. The total opened at 46 and has dropped to as low as 43.

TRENDS:

*The Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games against the Pats.
*The under is 8-3 in New England’s last 11 games.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 36.5)

The Browns have nothing to play for except their pride as they try to avoid an 0-16 season. The Steelers still have a shot at the top overall seed in the AFC but they are acting under the presumption the Patriots will beat the Jets and take the No. 1 spot.

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin won’t say for sure if his starters will play but beat reporters for the team think it’s unlikely quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and running back Le’Veon Bell will play. That would mean Pittsburgh would be without their three key offensive playmakers against Cleveland because All-Pro wideout Antonio Brown is already out with a calf injury.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as high as 16.5-point chalk but the line has dropped a full 10 points once bettors and bookies got the hint that Pittsburgh would be resting key starters. The total took a major plunge too. It opened at 41 and most shops are now at 36.5.

TRENDS:

*The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
*The Browns are 15-36-1 in their last 52 games.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5, 40.5)

Both of these teams have been out of the playoff picture for weeks. Houston can’t keep any of its quarterbacks from getting their heads caved in. Tom Savage is recovering from a series of concussions he picked up this season. T.J. Yates had to leave the game against Pittsburgh while team staff evaluated him for a possible concussion. Taylor Heinicke started the second half against Pitt and promptly got crushed and suffered a head injury himself.

Yates cleared concussion protocol and will start against the Colts and Heinicke is expected to serve as the backup. Pro Bowl receiver DeAndre Hopkins is not expected to play on Sunday because of a calf injury.

LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened as field goal favorites at most locations and are now giving as many as six points at some books. The total opened at 43 and has dropped to 40.

TRENDS:

*The Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
*The under is 7-0 in the Colts’ last seven games.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (+3, 39.5)

The Redskins have been missing key offensive contributors for weeks but that didn’t stop them from putting up 27 points against the league’s best defensive team (Denver) last week. Offensive tackle Trent Williams is officially done for the year and will be out for the next six months. This could be impending free agent Kirk Cousins’ last game as Washington’s quarterback.

Giants interim head coach Steve Spagnuolo is auditioning to be the HC next season. The audition is going great so far. The G-Men are 0-3 SU (1-2 ATS) while being outscored 39-87 since Spagnuolo took over for Ben McAdoo.

LINE HISTORY: The line has bounced around all week between Washington -3 and -3.5. The books are playing with the juice to determine whether they want to be at or over the field goal spread. The total opened at 38.5 and has gone up to 39.5 at some shops.

TRENDS:

*The Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against NFC East opponents.
*The Giants are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Week 17 games.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 43)

Both of these NFC North rivals are just playing out the string in this contest. The Lions were elimintated from the playoffs after they lost 26-17 to the Cincinnati Bengals. Lions owner Martha Ford wouldn’t say if head coach Jim Caldwell will return as the head coach next season.

The Packers already placed quarterback Aaron Rodgers on IR. Wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams and running back Aaron Jones are all expected to sit this game out due to injuries.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as high as 8.5-point chalk but dropped down a couple points once they had been eliminated from the postseason.

TRENDS:

*The favorite is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings between the Lions and Packers.
*The over is 21-7 in the Packers’ last 28 games.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (+4, 43.5)

The Rams will rest multiple key starters in preparation for the playoffs including quarterback Jared Goff, running back Todd Gurley and defensive lineman Aaron Donald. Sean Mannion will start under center for the Rams. He’s attempted 16 regular season pass attempts in his three seasons in the pros.

The 49ers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS since Jimmy Garoppolo took over the starting QB job.

LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened as 4-point chalk but the line flipped once oddsmakers learned of coach Sean McVay’s plans to rest his key starters.

TRENDS:

*The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.
*The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Rams.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-4, 38)

The playoff-bound Chiefs will rest starting quarterback Alex Smith against the Broncos and turn to rookie first round pick Patrick Mahomes II to handle the offensive snaps. Tyreek Hill – Kansas City’s leader in receiving yards – will sit this game out as well.

LINE HISTORY: Denver opened as 1.5-point favorite but the line has grown as more and more KC players get ruled out of this game. The total opened at 39 and has come down a point to 38.

TRENDS:

*The Broncos are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
*The under is 6-1 in the Chiefs’ last seven games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, 40)

The Ravens need a win to secure their spot in the AFC playoffs while the Bengals are playing in most likely Marvin Lewis’ last game as head coach.

Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh isn’t happy with the NFL’s decision to move his team’s start time from the early to the late afternoon kickoff. The league wanted all teams with playoff impactions playing at the same time. The Ravens home crowd could be much smaller because the game is taking place on New Year’s Eve.

LINE HISTORY: There’s been no real movement on the spread but the total has dropped from 40.5 to 40.

TRENDS:

*The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups between the Ravens and Bengals.
*The Ravens are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against AFC North opponents.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+2.5, 42.5)

The Bills need to be the Dolphins and then get some help in order for them to qualify for the playoffs for the first time in 17 years. Buffalo needs the Ravens to lose to the Bengals or both the Chargers and Titans to lose on Sunday for a chance at a postseason berth.

Miami held Bills running back LeSean McCoy to 50 yards on 20 carries in Week 15 but he still found the end zone three times en route to a 24-16 win and ATS cover. The Dolphins have allowed the sixth fewest rushing yards per game over the last three weeks at 81.3. The Bills are dead last in passing offense at just 175.9 yards per game.

LINE HISTORY: The spread opened at 2.5 and a few shops toed the water at a field goal line for a little bit before returning to Bills -2.5.

TRENDS:

*The over is 8-2 in the Dolphins’ last 10 games.
*The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two sides.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3, 42)

The Titans need to win this game to secure an AFC wild card playoff spot. The Jaguars are the AFC South champs and will host a playoff game next weekend. That isn’t keeping them from playing their starters this weekend though.

Field conditions could be an issue in this game. The Titans’ home stadium was the site for the Music City Bowl played on Friday.

LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as high as 6-point chalk but the line dropped down to a field goal spread once word spread Jacksonville would not be resting its starters for this game.

TRENDS:

*The Jags are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records.
*Tennessee is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9, 38.5)

The Seahawks need to beat the Cardinals and see the Panthers top the Falcons in order to qualify for the playoffs. There was a bit of a hub-bub this week when Cards head coach Bruce Arians comments calling Seattle’s CenturyLink field “our home field.”

Arians said this in the locker room addressing his team following the win over the Giants last weekend. Cameras were on and caught the comment. The Cardinals are 3-1 straight up and against the spread playing at Seattle since Arians took over the job in Arizona.

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as 7.5-point faves and the line moved up to 10 by Saturday. The total opened at 40.5 and has since dropped to 38.5.

TRENDS:

*The Cards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
*The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six games between these two teams.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5, 48)

The Saints are definitely going to the playoffs but they can still improve their playoff positioning with a win over the Bucs on Sunday. The Tampa Bay Times reported Dirk Koetter will return as the Buccaneers’ head coach next season despite a 4-11 record this year.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 7.5-point road faves and the line has dropped a point to rest at a 6.5-point spread. The total opened as high as 50.5 but dropped to 48 by the weekend.

TRENDS:

*The Saints are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against NFC South foes.
*The under is 5-0 in the Bucs’ last five home games.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 45)

The Falcons need to either with this game against the Panthers or see the Seahawks fall to the Cardinals in order to punch their ticket to the postseason. The Panthers are still fighting for the NFC South division crown. They need to beat Atlanta and have New Orleans trip up against Tampa Bay.

Falcons starting center Alex Mack is a game-time decision to play against Carolina because of a calf injury. Carolina has the third most takeaways in the league over the last eight games with 17.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 3-point home chalk and the line has grown a half point to 3.5 since. The total opened around 47 and has dropped to as low as 45.

TRENDS:

*Carolina is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games.
*The under is 4-0 in the Falcons’ last four games.

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5, 42)

This could resemble a home game for the Raiders who haven’t played in Los Angeles for more than two decades but have a much larger fan base in the area than the Chargers.

“I’m expecting it to be blacked out, regardless of the record that [the Raiders] have and what ours is,” Bolts running back Melvin Gordon told reporters. “I just keep having flashbacks to last year at Qualcomm when there were a million, a zillion Raiders fans there.”

LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Bolts giving eight points but most shops are now dealing Chargers -7.5. The total opened around 44 but came down to 42.5 since then.

TRENDS:

*The under is 6-0 in the Raiders’ last six games.
*The underdog is 15-2 ATS in the last 17 matchups between these two teams.

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NFL

Sunday, December 31

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NFL Game of the Day betting preview and odds: Panthers at Falcons
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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 45)

The Atlanta Falcons can clinch a playoff berth with a win Sunday, but they won’t face a pushover opponent because the Carolina Panthers need a road win to retain their hopes of an NFC South title. The Falcons need a win or a Seattle loss to claim the final playoff spot in the NFC.

Atlanta was knocked out of contention for the division title with a 23-13 loss at New Orleans last week, while Carolina kept alive its hopes of a division crown when Cam Newton’s rushing touchdown with 35 seconds left lifted the Panthers to a 22-19 win over Tampa Bay. The Panthers could still end up seeded anywhere from second to fifth in the NFC playoffs, though they need a win and some help from multiple other teams to improve upon the No. 5 seed they’re in line for with a loss or a New Orleans victory at Tampa Bay. Regardless, Carolina plans to play its starters and play to win, perhaps while keeping one eye on the scoreboard in case the result becomes irrelevant. The Panthers, who have won seven of their last eight, snapped a three-game losing streak against the Falcons with a 20-17 home win in Week 9.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

POWER RANKINGS: Panthers (-3) - Falcons (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Falcons -1.5.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 3.5-point home chalk at most shops, money coming in on Atlanta saw that line rise to -4 before returning to the opening number late in the week. The total hit the betting board at 47 and has been bet down at most shops to 45.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:

Panthers - LB Thomas Davis (Probable, Suspension), DE Charles Johnson (Eligible, Suspension), G Trai Turner (Questionable, Concussion), WR Russell Shepard (Questionable, Shoulder), CB Cole Luke (Questionable, Ankle), DE Demetrious Cox (Questionable, Ankle), LB Jared Norris (I-R, Calf), OT John Theus (I-R, Concussion).

Falcons - G Andy Levitre (Questionable, Tricep), LB Sean Weatherspoon (Questionable, Illness), LB Jordan Tripp (Questionable, Concussion), S Quincy Mauger (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS, 9-6 O/U): Carolina continues to get the job done in the trenches, ranking fourth in rushing offense and sixth in run defense. The guys who power that ground game – Newton and running backs Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey – will be among the first relegated to the bench if the Saints open a big lead against the Buccaneers. The defense that was dominant early in the season has given up bigger chunks of yardage of late but also has forced 10 turnovers in the past three games.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (9-6 SU, 6-9 ATS, 5-10 O/U): Atlanta has crept into the top 10 in the league in total offense after a slow start, but the Falcons managed only 331 total yards in last week’s loss at New Orleans. Matt Ryan is likely to surpass 4,000 passing yards for the seventh straight season, but his numbers represent a big dropoff from a year ago, and star receiver Julio Jones is battling ankle and thumb injuries. The defense has been excellent against the run most of the season but especially of late, holding three straight opponents and four of the last five under 100 rushing yards.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.

* Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

* Under is 7-1 in Falcons last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.

* Under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings.

* Home team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road dog Panthers at a rate of 57 percent and the Over is getting 60 percent of the totals action.

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SUNDAY, DECEMBER 31
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

DAL at PHI 01:00 PM
PHI +3.5
U 40.0

CHI at MIN 01:00 PM
MIN -12.5
U 38.5

GB at DET 01:00 PM
DET -7.0
O 45.0

CLE at PIT 01:00 PM
CLE +6.0
U 38.0

NYJ at NE 01:00 PM
NYJ +15.0
U 43.0

HOU at IND 01:00 PM
IND -6.0
U 42.0

SF at LAR 04:25 PM
SF -5.0
O 43.5

CAR at ATL 04:25 PM
CAR +4.0
U 45.0

ARI at SEA 04:25 PM
ARI +8.5
O 38.5

CIN at BAL 04:25 PM
CIN +9.0
U 40.0

NO at TB 04:25 PM
NO -6.0
U 49.0

KC at DEN 04:25 PM
KC +3.0
U 37.5

OAK at LAC 04:25 PM
OAK +7.0
U 43.0

JAC at TEN 04:25 PM
TEN -2.0
U 40.5

BUF at MIA 04:25 PM
MIA +2.5
O 41.5

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WAS at NYG 01:00 PM

NYG +4.0

U 40.5

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Monday’s 6-pack

Top 6 picks in Week 17 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (460)- L

5) Indianapolis Colts -3.5 (583)-W

4) Carolina Panthers +3.5 (585)- L

3) Washington Redskins -3 (596)- L

2) Cleveland Browns +11 (666)- W

1) San Francisco 49ers -3 (1,045)- W

Record of top 6 picks each week: 50-49–3

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Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

13) Bengals 31, Ravens 27— An epic gag by Baltimore, giving up a 49-yard TD pass with 0:41 left on a 4th-and-12 play that puts Buffalo in the playoffs and knocks the Ravens out. Bills are in the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

12) Falcons 22, Panthers 10— Atlanta is in, Seattle is out; Falcons visit the Los Angeles Coliseum next week to play the Rams.

11) Buccaneers 31, Saints 24— Tampa Bay scored on a 38-yard TD pass with 0:09 left to beat the Saints, who will now host Carolina next week in the playoffs, as the #4 seed.

10) Titans 15, Jaguars 10— If you’re Jacksonville, how do you feel about going to the playoffs with two consecutive losses? Meaningless losses, but still…….

Titans visit Kansas City next week in the playoffs.

9) Cowboys 6, Eagles 0— First NFL game in ten years that was 0-0 after three quarters. Eagles’ #3 QB Nate Sudfeld wasn’t horrible in his NFL debut.

8) Patriots 26, Jets 6— With 10:28 to play and down 24-3, the Jets kicked a 35-yard FG. This was the only game that was still going on at 4:05 ET— Week 17 games tend to go faster. Game ended at 4:10, leaving 15 minutes of dead air before the late games started.

7) Colts 22, Texans 13— Houston GM Rick Smith is taking a leave of absence to help care for his wife, who was recently diagnosed with cancer. No one is saying if he’ll be back in his job as GM; there were rumors that Smith and coach Bill O’Brien weren’t getting along well, to the point that one of them would have to leave the Texans. We’ll see.

6) Chargers 30, Raiders 10— This is how fragile success in the NFL is; Raiders were 12-4 last year. Now they might be totally cleaning house, 12 short months later.

Oakland hasn’t ended the regular season with a win since 2009- Jack Del Rio told a writer he was fired before I got the game’s stats written in my notebook.

5) Cardinals 26, Seahawks 24— Arizona won four of its last five visits to Seattle; Cardinals will have a hard time finding a head coach as good as Bruce Arians was.

4) Chiefs 27, Broncos 24— This game was first time since 1987 that the Chiefs won a game that was QB’d by a player they drafted— 30 years !!! Todd Blackledge was the QB in ’87; this game was won by rookie Patrick Mahomes, and now Alex Smith can get traded to the Browns, after the Chiefs lose in the playoffs.

3) Steelers 28, Browns 24— Cleveland has the 1st and 4th picks in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft— maybe they should call Kevin Costner to make the picks for them (movie reference).

Cleveland just went 1-31 the last two years; the NFL should demand that one of their first round picks be a quarterback, just so the fans don’t get even more depressed.

2) Vikings 23, Bears 10— Minnesota gets #1 seed in NFC; if they win two home playoff games, they’ll play the Super Bowl on their home field.

1) NFL playoff picture:
AFC: Patriots/Steelers get byes. WC games: Titans @ Chiefs, Bills @ Jaguars
NFC: Eagles/Vikings get byes. WC games: Falcons @ Rams, Panthers @ Saints

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Betting Recap - Week 17
December 31, 2017

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 17 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-5
Against the Spread 9-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 10-6
Against the Spread 8-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-9

HAPPY NEW YEAR, EVERYONE!!!

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bengals (+8, ML + ) at Ravens, 31-27
Cardinals (+8, ML + ) at Seahawks, 26-24
Buccaneers (+6, ML + ) vs. Saints, 31-24
Giants (+5, ML + ) vs. Redskins, 18-10

The largest favorite to cover
Chargers (-7) vs. Raiders, 30-10
Lions (-7) vs. Packers, 35-11
49ers (-6.5) at Rams, 34-13
Colts (-5.5) vs. Texans, 22-13

Finishing Up Strong

-- The San Francisco 49ers were obviously helped out in Week 17 by the fact the Los Angeles Rams were resting their starters with nothing to gain in the playoff seeding process, but Vegas also had the Niners installed as a 6 1/2-point favorite. They produced yet another win, as the legend of QB Jimmy Garoppolo continues to grow. The 49ers won their fifth consecutive game to close out the 2017 campaign, finishing 6-10 after opening 0-9 SU. At the betting window the Niners were a favorite, too, as they ended up going 4-1 ATS over their final five outings to close out 2017. They'll be a team to watch heading into 2018 after free agency and the NFL Draft.

Not Done Yet

-- The Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans secured AFC Wild Card berths with wins in Week 17. The Bills needed the Cincinnati Bengals to take care of the Baltimore Ravens, and they scored a shocking touchdown with less than a minute left for the 31-27 road upset to snap the Bills' 17-year playoff drought. The Titans ended the regular season on a high note, going 5-1 ATS across their final six games. They'll travel to meet the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Wild-Card round next weekend, and they opened 7 1/2-point underdogs. The Bills are underdogs by the same number as they travel to meet the Jacksonville Jaguars next weekend. They closed out their regular season with a 4-2 ATS mark, although they were just 2-4 ATS over their past six road games. The Titans-Chiefs and Bills-Jaguars did not meet in the 2017 regular season.

Total Recall

-- The Chiefs pushed past the Denver Broncos by a 27-24 score, a game which hit the 'over' (37.5) rather easily. But the game was littered with plenty of reserves on both sides of the ball, so there isn't much to glean from this result. In the previous seven games, the Chiefs were using their starters and the 'under' cashed in six of seven outings. That's something to watch heading into their playoff game next week. The Titans hit the 'under' in Week 17, and it cashed in four of their final six outings. The 'under' was also 4-2 in their final six games on the road.

-- The Bills went 'under' in Week 17, and the total went under for a 4-1-1 record in their final six games. On the road, the 'under' was 5-3 overall on the season. The Jaguars had a stout defense this season, but the 'over' still cashed rather frequently. The over was 3-1 in their final four outings, although the 'under' hit in Week 17. The over actually hit in five of their eight home games this season. The total opened at 41 for the Bills-Jaguars game.

-- There were no primetime games in Week 17, so the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games during the 2017 season. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bills RB LeSean McCoy (ankle) rolled his ankle in the third quarter of the Week 17 game at Miami and he was unable to return. His status for Wild-Card weekend is uncertain.

-- Chiefs WR De'Anthony Thomas (leg) sustained a fractured tibia on a punt return late in the Week 17 game against the Broncos and he is obviously done for the season.

Looking Ahead

-- The Titans will travel to meet the Chiefs in the wild card. The Titans are 6-1 ATS over their past seven against teams with a winning record, and 4-1 ATS in their past five on a grass surface. However, they're still just 14-38-4 ATS in their past 56 against AFC foes, and 8-20 ATS in their past 28 road games. They're also 0-5 ATS in their past five appearances on a Saturday.

-- The Chiefs have covered four in a row, they're 4-0 ATS in their past four vs. AFC teams and they're 4-1 ATS in their past five home games. However, Kansas City is a dismal 1-8 ATS in their past nine playoff games, and 0-5 ATS in their past five playoff games at Arrowhead.

-- The Falcons are an impressive 13-6 ATS in their past 19 vs. NFC opponents, but they're just 2-7 ATS in their past nine playoff games. They're also 1-5 ATS in their past six road games, and 0-4 ATS in their past four playoff road outings. They travel to meet the Rams on Saturday night. The 'over' is 5-0 in Atlanta's past five playoff games.

-- The Rams have posted a 6-13-1 ATS mark across their past 20 against NFC foes, while going 4-10-1 ATS in their pat 15 at home. And while it's been a while, the Rams are 1-4 ATS in their past five playoff games.

-- It has been 17 years, but Buffalo is on an 0-4 ATS run in their past four playoff games. The 'over' is 9-4 in Buffalo's past 13 against teams with a winning overall record.

-- The Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their past eight games against AFC opponents, and 4-1 ATS in their past five at home. While it has been a long time, the 'over' is 4-1-1 in Jacksonville's past six playoff home games, but the 'under' is 7-1 in their past eight vs. AFC opponents.

-- The Panthers and Saints meet for the third time this season. Carolina was swept in the regular season by New Orleans, and they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to NOLA, while going 0-6 ATS in the past six meetings overall. However, the road team is a sparkling 23-10 ATS in the past 33 meetings in this series, with the underdog 6-1 ATS in the past seven. The 'over' is also 4-0 in the past four in New Orleans, and 6-1 in the past seven meetings overall.

[StarDust Bum]

december nfl best bets & opinions ( based on 5 units )

date w-l-t % units record

12/31/2017 21-11-0 65.63% +44.50
12/25/2017 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
12/24/2017 12-11-1 52.17% -0.50
12/23/2017 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
12/18/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/17/2017 12-9-2 57.14% +10.50
12/16/2017 NO PLAYS
12/14/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/11/2017 NO PLAYS
12/10/2017 16-11-0 59.25% +19.50
12/07/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/04/2017 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
12/03/2017 11-17-0 39.29% -38.50

Totals..........77 - 68........53.10%............+16.00

best bets:......................ats.................... ..units.........................o/u....................units

12/31/2017.................10 - 5....................+22.50....................... .8 - 4.................+18.00
12/25/2017..................1 - 1.....................-0.50...........................1 - 1..................0.50
12/24/2017..................2 - 4.....................-12.00..........................5 - 5.................-2.50
12/23/2017..................1 - 1.....................-0.50............................1 - 1.................-0,50
12/18/2017..................1 - 0.....................+ 5.00..........................1 - 0.................+5.00
12/17/2017................4 - 3 - 1..................+8.50.........................5 - 4 - 1..............+3.00
12/16/2017................................N O P L A Y S................................................. ....
12/14/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50.............................0 - 1................-5.50
12/11/2017................................N O P L A Y S................................................. ......
12/10/2017..................6 - 3....................+13.50....................... ...5 - 3.................+8.50
12/07/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 1.................-5.50
12/03/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 0..................push
12/03/2017..................5 - 5.....................-2.50............................5 - 5..................-2.50

Totals..........................30 - 25..................+17.50........................ .31 - 25...............+17.50

[StarDust Bum]

Books squeak out Week 17 win
January 1, 2018

The final week of the NFL's regular season got most New Year's Eve parties started early on Sunday with all 32 teams participating. There were six teams vying for the final three wild card slots and the NFL made sure that all the playoff hopefuls played games at the same time. No Thursday night games, no Saturday games, no Sunday or Monday night contests either and it turned out being one of the most exciting weeks of the regular season.

As for the the end results for the sports books, mixed would best describe it with most in the category of being small winners.

"We won a crumb," is how William Hill's head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich perfectly described results from his 107 books across Nevada.

A crumb is something, for sure, but it's really not. In fact, we often throw crumbs away as trash. Those crumbs are much worse to look at when it happens on the final day of the business quarter and overall season. It's smaller than a ham sandwich. Most of all, end-of-year bonuses are at stake and crumbs don't turn into bonus checks.

"Escaped is the best I can say about the day," said Atlantis Reno sports book director Marc Nelson of his Week 17 results. "The parlay cards could have been a nightmare had just two or three games gone differently."

Nelson, who just took over Atlantis two weeks ago, said his worst game ended up being the Lions and his best game was the Buccaneers. The Lions (-7) covered at home in a 35-11 win over the Packers. The Buccaneers (+6) electrified the sports book crowds with their last second, 31-24 home win over the Saints, who still ended up winning the NFC South despite the loss because Carolina lost at Atlanta.

The money-line payout on the Bucs at Coast Resorts was +270, one of five underdogs to win outright while favorites ended up going 10-6 against the spread and the 'under' was 9-7.

Perhaps the coolest thing to watch on Sunday was the amount of afternoon games. Of the 16 games on the day, nine of them kicked off at 1:25 p.m. PT. It was an odd, but welcomed sight.

"I've seen eight or nine in the morning games with just two in the afternoon before, but never nine in the afternoon," said Nelson, who has worked in Nevada books for the past 25 years. "I kind of liked it," he said.

Of course, Nelson and other bookmakers liked it because it gives bettors more options to lose on. With only two afternoon games, it's easier for bettors to cash because they're not allowed to be greedy. Side-to-total 1 and side-to-total 2. That's it.

Some books managed to do better than others on Sunday.

"It was a very good day for us," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "The worst game of the day for us was the Cowboys and the best turned out being the Bengals and Cardinals."

Again, the key underdogs stepped up for the books. The Bengals knocking the Ravens (-8) out of the playoffs with a last second, 31-27 win, paid +380 on the money-line and was the crowning moment of a spectacular Sunday whether betting the games or not. It was amazing. The Cardinals gritty 26-24 win at Seattle (-8) was their fourth win at Seattle in the past five seasons and paid +340 on the money-line.

If the Eagles had managed to score anything, the books would have been happy because every parlay on the day seemed to have the Cowboys (-4) knowing Philly would rest players. The Cowboys ended up winning 6-0.

"Lighter handles, but still an okay day," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "I'm happy just to get through the mess of Week 17. The Giants, Bucs, and Cardinals were great games for us. The 49ers were by far our worst."

Week 17 always provides drama for the bookmakers because of not knowing who is playing, or how long the starters will play. It's all eventually reflected in the number, but being vulnerable gives them a queasy feeling because eventually middle opportunities are created for the books to get beat on both sides.

For example, if you had bet the Rams last Sunday night at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, you could have gotten -6.5. By kickoff, the spread had the 49ers -6.5 with the Rams resting their two MVP candidates. That's the biggest swing of the NFL season and one of the largest I've seen in a while -- the last was another Week 17 also. The 49ers easily won, 34-13, for their fifth straight win after starting 1-10.

One piece of information that escaped both the books and wise guys was Jay Cutler scheduled to take only three snaps. The Bills had a playoff berth on the line and the Dolphins decided to let back-up David Fales play most of the game, and he was terrible. The Bills (-2.5) won 22-16. Had bettors know of the QB plan, the number would have ran to at least -6.

Happy New Years and Cheers!

[StarDust Bum]

AFC Wild Card Notes
January 1, 2018

Saturday, January 6, 2018

AFC – Tennessee at Kansas City – 4:20 p.m. (ESPN)

Opening Line (1/1/18): Kansas City -7, 44 ½
Current Line (1/1/18): Kansas City -7, 44 ½

Tennessee Road Record: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS
Kansas City Home Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: These clubs did not meet during the 2017 regular season, but they did play in Kansas City last December. the chiefs were favored by six points, but it was the Titans coming away with a 19-17 victory as the 'under' cashed. The road team has cashed in seven of the past eight meetings in this series, while the Titans are 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings at Arrowhead Stadium.

Playoff Notes: Tennessee snapped their playoff drought with a home win in Week 17, punching their ticket to the postseason for the first time since 2008. They're looking for their first win since a Wild-Card win in Baltimore during the 2003 NFL postseason. These teams haven't met in the playoffs since the Titans were the Oilers, with Kansas City coming away with a 28-20 victory on the road. The Chiefs had their 12-4 season ruined by a home loss to the Steelers last year in the Divisional Playoffs. Kansas City is 0-6 SU in their past six home playoff games dating back to a Wild-Card win in the 1993 playoffs against the Steelers.

Total Notes: The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four playoff games for the Titans, while the 'under' is 4-1 in the past five playoff home games for the Chiefs. The 'under' is also 6-2 in the past eight overall for Kansas City, while going 44-19 in their past 63 at home. The 'over' has hit in five of the past seven meetings in this series.

Sunday, January 7, 2018

AFC – Buffalo at Jacksonville – 1:05 p.m. (CBS)

Opening Line (1/1/18): Jacksonville -7 ½, 40
Current Line (1/1/18): Jacksonville -7 (Even), 40

Buffalo Road Record: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS
Jacksonville Home Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Bills and Jaguars did not meet during the 2017 season. They last met in Buffalo on Nov. 27, 2016 with the Bills taking a 28-21 victory while the Jaguars covered as an 8 ½-point underdog. The teams met in Northeast Florida back on Oct. 25, 2015, with the Jags coming away with a 34-31 win as 3 ½-point underdogs as the 'over' hit. Before that, Buffalo won 27-20 in Week 15 of the 2013 season as a four-point favorite in another 'over' result.

Playoff Notes: Buffalo snapped a 17-year playoff drought to qualify, and it almost didn't happen. They needed a touchdown from the Cincinnati Bengals in the final minute of regulation to bump off the Baltimore Ravens in the final week of the regular season. Their last appearance in the playoffs came in 1999 in the Music City Miracle, a 22-16 loss at Tennessee. They also met their demise against the Jaguars, 30-27, at home in the 1996 AFC Wild-Card Game. In fact, Buffalo's last playoff win was in 1995. They're 0-3 in their past three playoff games dating back to a 24-3 win in the Division Playoffs in 1992 at Pittsburgh. The Jags are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2007, and they haven't hosted a playoff game since the 1999 AFC Championship Game. Their last win at home was a 62-7 win against the Miami Dolphins in Dan Marino's final game in the NFL in the 1999 Divisional Playoffs.

Total Notes: The 'over' is 9-4 in Buffalo's past 13 games against a team with a winning overall record. The over is 10-4 in Jacksonville's past 14 games at home, and 5-2 in their past seven games against a team with a winning overall mark. The 'under' is 7-1 in the past eight for the Jags vs. AFC opponents, while the 'over' is 4-1-1 in their past six playoff games. The 'over' has hit in each of the past five meetings between the Bills and Jaguars.