The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

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Sunday's Top 5 Wagers
December 22, 2017

Week 16

We’re skipping the Saturday games for in-depth analysis because…well…they’re pretty straightforward. The Colts-Ravens has a -13.0 point line that only seems to be inflating, and to me that’s a clear stay away. Meanwhile, the Vikings are -9.0 road favorites in Lambeau with a chance to assert divisional dominance against a team that has wrecked them for what feels like thirty years.

As for the rest of the Sunday games, there’s some intriguing value for sure, and at least two games where you should lean away from the favorites. This is typically not a great weekend for underdogs, aside from a few exceptions.

Let’s take a look.

Detroit Lions -3.5 over Cincinnati Bengals
The free falling Bengals have the look and feel of a team that’s essentially given up. They have lost their last two games 14-67 while playing Chicago and Minnesota and the Lions feel like they fall somewhere between those two teams. You’d think that the impending departure of Marvin Lewis would offer some enthusiasm, but it’s created quite the opposite.

Detroit desperately in need of two wins and will play this game with a sense of urgency that the Bengals generally have no interest in matching. The Lions are typically untrustworthy at home, but they are absolutely the most logical play here simply by context of circumstance.

New Orleans Saints -6 over Atlanta Falcons
This is the “friendly reminder pick” of the week. Atlanta is in absolute shambles this year and barely survived a Monday Nighter against a decrepit Tampa Bay squad. I have all sorts of concerns with the Saints playing on the road in the playoffs, but as a home bet with a moderately heavy line, I’m following the lead of the oddsmakers. The Falcons haven’t been able to live up to the moment for the most part this year, and mounting pressure in Week 16 with their playoff lives in the balance isn’t going to make things any easier on Matty Melt and the squad.

New York Jets +6.5 over Los Angeles Chargers
Big issue here for a west coast team playing on the east coast in frigid temperatures with all sorts of potential for snow. The other major problem with encouraging the Chargers is that their rush defence is abysmal and has been all season. The backbone of New York’s offence now is their running game, which picked up 124 total yards on just 28 carries with no run longer than 15 yards against New Orleans. That’s enough to encourage a daring cover here by a Jets team that loves to make life difficult for their opponents for whatever reason. This is generally the type of game that the Jets should lose for draft position, but they’ve played the entire year at an unusually competitive rate and are worth a risk here. Chargers win, but not by much.

Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 over San Francisco 49ers
A tougher game to call than you’d think, but the lean here has to go to Jacksonville for obvious reasons. Nearly two-thirds of the public is already taking Bortles in this one with a soft line despite the fact that the Niners have gone 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games with Jimmy at the helm. Those games were against the morbid Bears, collapsing Texans and brutal Titans. By no means should you believe that Marquise Goodwin is going to be enough to bully the Niners past the top rated defence in the NFL. Love the soft line that the Jaguars are getting here and you should jump on it as fast as you can before it inches away from you.

Seattle Seahawks +5 over Dallas Cowboys
After watching Gurley rip the Seahawks to shreds on their home field, you’d think that a completely rested Zeke Elliot would run roughshod in Week 16 after returning from suspension. That’s probably going to happen. But Seattle will have a lot more life here given the fact that the Cowboys don’t have the pass rush that the Rams assaulted Russell Wilson with.

I like this line a lot because it leaves such a generous cushion here and would encourage you to wait until game time to get this bet in because the public will absolutely shove Dallas at least a half-point higher. Let’s not forget that the Cowboys are not that good, and that Seattle is too prideful of a team to let an embarrassing performance from last week repeat itself. Plus, Seattle hasn’t lost three games in a row since 2011.

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Total Talk - Week 16
December 22, 2017

I’m not sure if the defensive units are catching up but for the second consecutive week, we saw the ‘under’ come out on a top with a 9-6-1 mark and the low side is 19-11-2 (63%) over the last 32 games. While a lot of the results were never in doubt last weekend, I congratulate bettors on the below outcomes and apologize to those who came up short.

Jets-Saints Over (47): New Orleans won 31-19 and the last score came on a 50-yard scamper from running back Mark Ingram while the Saints were trying to run out the clock.

Patriots-Steelers Under (53): Pittsburgh dropped a 27-24 decision and it had a late touchdown called back in the final seconds via video replay. The Steelers had a chance to force overtime but they were intercepted in the end zone on the ensuing play.

Through 15 weeks, the ‘under’ holds a 111-109-4 record.

Line Moves

The folks behind the betting counter at BookMaker.eu did a solid job with their Week 15 openers posted last Sunday. As of Friday evening, we only have a handful of totals receiving much attention and none of the moves exceed two points.

Minnesota at Green Bay: 42 to 40 ½
L.A. Rams at Tennessee: 49 to 47
Denver at Washington: 42 to 40 ½
Pittsburgh at Houston: 44 to 46

Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu wasn’t surprised by lack of action. He said, “Yes, barring inclement weather the totals tend to be a bit tighter as the season wears on.”

He does believe the numbers will shift as we inch closer to kickoff. “Gamblers certainly get in the gambling mood during the holidays. Time off, sitting around with family watching television and consumption of alcohol has a lot to do with the massive increase in volume. It starts with Thanksgiving and it doesn’t let up until the New Year,” explained Cooley.

Saturday’s Action

Two early games this week and here’s a quick snapshot on each total:

Indianapolis at Baltimore: The Ravens (-13 ½) are laying a heavy price and they’ve been great defensively all season, ranked fourth in scoring with 18.3 points per game. They’ve posted three shutouts and their defensive average shrinks to 11.4 PPG versus teams at .500 or below. The Colts enter this game on a 6-0 ‘under’ run and the offense (13.8 PPG) has been dreadful during this run. Baltimore’s offense has scored 23-plus points in five straight but I don’t see the Ravens taking as many risky chances with a playoff berth at stake.

Minnesota at Green Bay: The ‘under’ is on a 5-1 run in this series and the Packers had a healthy quarterback for most of those games. With Aaron Rodgers moved to IR, Brett Hundley takes over again at QB for Green Bay and he’s been hit or miss. The former UCLA standout doesn’t have anything to lose and since it’s the home finale for the Packers, head coach Mike McCarthy might let him loose here. While that sounds good, Minnesota’s defense is ranked second in total yards (283.9) and scoring (17.3 PPG). The Vikings offense aren’t a juggernaut but they should be able to move the ball on Green Bay’s defense, which will be missing a pair of starting linebackers (Matthews, Perry) on Saturday. Cold temperatures could play a major factor as well and I’d expect the clock to be running often.

NFC vs. AFC

The ‘over’ has gone 32-26-2 (55%) in non-conference game this season and the final six matchups take place this weekend. Here’s my quick thoughts and handicap on each total.

Detroit at Cincinnati: I thought this total (44) would be lower knowing the Bengals offense has gone into hibernation the last two weeks, scoring a combined 14 points. Defensively, Cincinnati is a mess and Detroit is quietly ranked seventh in scoring (25.6 PPG). Even with possible snow in the forecast, the line has me buying high.

L.A. Rams at Tennessee: Even though the Rams own the highest scoring average as visitors (33.5 PPG), the total on this game is dropping. I’m guessing the pros are expecting a L.A. letdown after the win at Seattle and Tennessee’s defense has been decent (21.3 PPG) at home. I think this game will be tight and decided by a field goal either way.

Cleveland at Chicago: This will likely be the lowest closing total (38) of the week. It’s hard to argue for an ‘over’ lean knowing the inconsistent play of both offensive units plus weather could play a factor at Soldier Field. The Bears have only been favored one other time this season and that resulted in a 15-14 loss at home to 49ers. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a score in that neighborhood again with the Browns possibly getting off the schneid.

Denver at Washington: Another meaningless game and the best unit on the field is the Denver defense, who’s been a bully the past two weeks. The Redskins offense has been hindered by injuries and the firepower has been missing the last four games. Both Washington (3-1) and Denver (4-1) enter this game on solid ‘under’ runs.

Jacksonville at San Francisco: The total (42) screams ‘under’ to me knowing most bettors are buying QB Jimmy G and the 49ers. Big step up in class for him against an incredible Jaguars defense. I also expect Jaguars QB Blake Bortles to come back to earth after boosting his numbers with three straight games at home.

Oakland at Philadelphia: (See Christmas Action)

Divisional Games

The ‘under’ went 4-3-1 in the eight divisional games last week and the low side is now 44-23-1 in these matchups this season. As most of you know, all 16 games in Week 17 will be divisional contests. This weekend, we only have four on tap.

Minnesota at Green Bay: (See Saturday’s Action)

Tampa Bay at Carolina: The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight and six of the last eight meetings between the pair. The Panthers earned a 17-3 road win over the Buccaneers on Oct. 29 and the ‘under’ (46) was never in doubt. Carolina has watched the ‘over’ go 5-2 this season and it’s scored 45, 31 and 31 in its last three from Charlotte. I would expect that trend to continue knowing the Bucs defense is very banged up and the unit is ranked 31st in total yards allowed (390.8). Tampa Bay has been a solid ‘over’ bet (6-1) on the road due to better offensive numbers (22.4 PPG) plus it should help that the Panthers won’t have starting linebacker Thomas Davis (suspension) available.

Atlanta at New Orleans: This game has the highest total on the board (52 ½) and it’s also a quick rematch as the Falcons nipped the Saints 20-17 in Week 14 at home. The ‘under’ (51 ½) was never in doubt and it snapped a two-game ‘over’ streak in this series. The defense of the Falcons has stepped up in the second-half of the season (18.3 PPG) and that’s led to a 4-2 ‘under’ mark. However, New Orleans has scored 30-plus in its last four at home, which has helped the ‘over’ go 3-1.

Buffalo at New England: The Patriots stifled the Bills 23-3 on the road in Week 13 and the ‘under’ (49) cashed easily. New England’s defense allowed 27 and 24 points the next two weeks but the club has still seen the ‘under’ go 8-2 in the last 10 games. Buffalo enters this game on a 3-0-1 run to the ‘under’ and this matchup has playoff implications for both clubs. For whatever reason, Buffalo has played well recently at Foxboro and it’s left with two wins in its last three visits. They did beat a Tom Brady-less club last season but even with No. 12 on the field, the Patriots were held to a combined 29 points in the two previous games against Buffalo at Foxboro.

Christmas Action

The NBA usually takes center stage on the holiday but a pair of NFL games are slated as well.

Pittsburgh at Houston (NBC, 4:30 p.m. ET)

This game opened 44 and has been pushed up to 46, which could have you scratching your head. While I’m aware that the Steelers defense is short-handed and it hasn’t been great the last four weeks (28.3 PPG), the Texans haven’t scored more than 16 in their last four games. Houston’s defense has also been exposed during the same span (29.5 PPG) but they won’t have to face Pittsburgh wide receiver Antonio Brown (calf) for this matchup. Knowing the Steelers offense hasn’t carried well on the road (20.9 PPG) and they’re 6-0-1 to the ‘under’ as visitors, you could see why I’m second guessing the upward move.

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ produced a 3-0 record last week and the low side is now 8-3-1 over the last four weeks in the NFL. The last regular season game played at night takes place next Sunday and that matchup will be determined after this week’s results.

Over-Under Results: SNF (8-8), MNF (9-6-1), TNF (8-6)

Oakland at Philadelphia (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)

This is a big game for the Eagles, who can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win. QB Nick Foles stepped in nicely last week for the Birds as he tossed four touchdowns in their 34-29 road win over the Giants. The defense has been issue for Philadelphia recently, allowing 29.3 PPG in its last three games. Oakland’s offense has taken 10 steps back this season and it’s been inconsistent recently, averaging 17 PPG in its last five games and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-0. Philadelphia is averaging a league-best 35 PPG at home this season and knowing the Raiders defense hasn’t performed well against quality teams, I’d expect the Eagles to put up at least five scores in this spot. Can Oakland hold them to field goals? The Raiders have visited the East Coast three times this season and they’ve allowed 27, 34 and 24 points.

Fearless Predictions

I caught a fortunate push on our team total last week but should’ve known to not go against the ‘Road System’ angle on the Giants-Eagles matchup and that result kept us in the red. The deficit was minimal ($110) and the overall bankroll ($350) remains in the red. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Merry Christmas to you and yours!

Best Over: Atlanta-New Orleans 52 ½

Best Under: Cleveland-Chicago 38 ½

Best Team Total: Over Carolina 28.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Under 55 ½ L.A. Rams-Tennessee
Under 46 ½ Cleveland-Chicago
Under 50 ½ Jacksonville-San Francisco

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Gridiron Angles - Week 16
December 23, 2017

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 10-0 ATS (10.05 ppg) since Sep 19, 2013 coming off a home win where they did not turn the ball over.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Jaguars are 0-10-1 ATS (-7.95 ppg) since Oct 18, 1998 as a road favorite coming off a home game where they scored more than expected.

TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:

-- The Buccaneers are 0-8-1 ATS (-7.06 ppg) since Jan 01, 2017 when Mike Evans had at least five receptions last game.

NFL CHOICE TRENDS:

-- The Lions are 0-10 ATS (-8.90 ppg) since Dec 07, 2003 as a favorite off a home game in which they had a turnover margin of at least +2.

-- The Falcons are 0-12-1 OU (-10.15 ppg) since Oct 25, 2015 when they are off two consecutive games where they scored less points than expected.

TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:

-- The Broncos are 0-7 OU (-11.57 ppg) since Dec 28, 2015 coming off a game where Emmanuel Sanders had at least seven receptions.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Dolphins are 11-0 OU (8.45 ppg) since Oct 18, 2015 as a dog when the total is under 46 and they are coming off a game a game as a dog.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Bills are 0-10 OU (-11.95 ppg) since Dec 07, 2014 as a dog coming off a win where they cover.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- NFL ATS SYSTEM : Teams which attempted 6+ field goals last game are 18-38 ATS. Active against San Francisco.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Broncos are 0-12 ATS (-8.04 ppg) off a TD+ win as a favorite when they are facing a non-divisional opponent that is completing at least than 65% of their passes.

NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Bears are 0-18 OU (-8.72 ppg) when they are facing a non-divisional opponent and they are off a road loss by more than a TD in which they committed three-plus turnovers.

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Saturday's Essentials
December 23, 2017

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-13, 41), 4:30 ET, NFLN

Beyond the four AFC division winners that will wind up as the top seeds in a few weeks, there are another four teams still alive for the for the wild card spots. The Ravens are currently running seventh with tiebreakers factored in, but are in a strong position to emerge as one of the teams that gets to play on into January, hosting the already eliminated Colts and Bengals as they attempt to get to 10 wins.

Tennessee, one of the teams involved in the chase, owns a head-to-head win over the Ravens. The Bills can also get to 10-6 but have a pair of road games to get through. Baltimore rebounded nicely after blowing a game in Pittsburgh, pulling away from Cleveland 27-10 in its road finale last Sunday. It has won four of five outright and is on a 5-1-1 run against the number since Oct. 26.

Baltimore (8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS) leads the NFL in turnovers (33) and interceptions (22) but are now working without top corner Jimmy Smith, who tore his achilles at the beginning of the month. The Ravens’ five defensive touchdowns rank second in the NFL and own a plus-17 in turnover differential, tops in the league. Since the Colts rank among the worst teams in most offensive categories, including dead last in red-zone efficiency, you can see why this is perceived to be such a mismatch on paper.

Over the past three weeks, Joe Flacco has put together his three most productive games of the season, throwing for 269 yards against the Lions and Steelers before a season-best 288 yards in Cleveland. He’s still thrown just 14 touchdowns against 12 interceptions and continues to see his production suffer, currently sporting what would be the second-lowest rating of his career. Still, if this sudden surge is an indication of things to come, the Ravens could be dangerous.

It’s helped that a number of receivers have gotten healthier, since Mike Wallace, Danny Woodhead, Breshad Perriman and Michael Campanaro all got back in the mix after nagging injuries. Jeremy Maclin has been a fixture in the lineup despite being banged up himself, appearing in each of the last seven games, but he’s been ruled out of this one due to a knee injury.

The Colts (3-11 SU, 6-8 ATS) will be without a WR too with Donte Moncrief ruled out due to an ankle injury, which certainly won’t help an offense that has sputtered during their current five-game losing streak, averaging 12.6 points. Indianapolis is 1-6 on the road thus far this season, beating only Houston, and have scored just 15.6 points per away game. They’ve allowed just under 30 points per game in the losses and come into this one with DT Johnathan Hankins (shoulder) and LB Jeremiah George banged up. Corner Rashaan Melvin, a former Raven, has been ruled out with a broken hand, taking yet another key defensive player out of the equation in what’s been a theme all season.

In a week that has a number of double-digit spreads in place, this one is the largest, as the Ravens opened laying 13 and are still hovering in that range, with the number potentially reaching 14 by kickoff.

“Ratings and handle are going to be low for the Saturday opening game. Scant sharp money on either side of this tilt, and the public really isn’t interested either,” said Scott Cooley , spokesman for Bookmaker.eu . “Square money should pick up Saturday, and right now they’re somewhat split on the side with 55 percent of the tickets on Baltimore.”

The Ravens haven’t been a double-digit favorite since Dec. 28, 2014, so we’ll see how they adjust to the role. This will be the fifth game Indianapolis will close as a double-figure underdog and are 0-4 straight up, though it has covered at Cincinnati and home against Pittsburgh. The under has prevailed in five straight Colts games, but Baltimore has delivered the ‘over’ in seven of 10 contests, averaging 28.5 points in that span.

Rain could be a factor in Baltimore since showers are in the forecast throughout the day, and there will likely be some wind gusts in play.

Minnesota (-8.5, 41) at Green Bay, 8:30 ET, NBC

This one could’ve been a lot more fun except for the fact that Carolina had no love for the average football fan’s Saturday night plans. In holding off the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers at home last week, they eliminated Green Bay, instantly depreciating the entertainment value here since only the Vikings have something to play for.

Rodgers has been shelved, going on IR after throwing three interceptions in his return from a broken collarbone. The Packers knew he was rushing back and wasn’t 100 percent, but he still gave them the best chance to win and helped move the ball against a strong Panthers defense.

Brett Hundley will be back under center for Green Bay (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS), which officially won’t be part of the NFC playoffs for the first time since 2008, Rodgers’ first season replacing Brett Favre as the starter. Playing spoiler and securing at least a .500 record in the home finale will serve as the motivation for Green Bay in this one, and none of those reasons offer much inspiration for a team that held serious Super Bowl aspirations entering the season, opening Week 1 as the NFC’s co-favorite (7/2) according to Westgate.

Those dreams ultimately ended in the first meeting between these teams back in Week 5, where Rodgers was injured in the first quarter on a pass attempt where Anthony Barr got fierce pressure on him quickly and drove him down to the ground, shoulder-first. So, if nothing else, there’s a true revenge factor involved here.

The week has already carried a disappointed, funeral-like feel, with head coach Mike McCarthy resigned to the fact changes must be made. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers is likely to lose a gig he’s held since ’09 since this year’s group ranks 26th of 32 in total defense, 30th on third down and 31st in the red zone.

Making matters more challenging, this game will be played with the temperature hovering around 12 degrees, which will feel like single-digits down on the field. That should play right into the hands of a Vikings defense that has been among the NFL’s best, ranking second in scoring defense, total defense and stopping the run while coming in third against the pass.

Hundley is 3-4 as Green Bay’s starter, beating the Bears, Bucs and Browns, all sub-.500 teams with suspect defenses. He did post his most impressive numbers in a 27-21 OT win in Cleveland in Week 14, throwing three touchdown passes and completing 35 of 45 for 265 yards. The Browns and Vikes are polar opposites defensively, but Hundley is at least coming off a positive performance. He threw three interceptions in relief of Rodgers in the 23-10 loss, but did hit on a touchdown pass to Davante Adams, beginning a run in which they’ve shown great chemistry with one another. Unfortunately for Hundley, he really hasn’t been able to click much with anyone else, and Adams won’t be available here after being ruled out due to a concussion despite wanting to play.

He’s one of a number of injury concerns for the Packers, who have ruled out corner Demetri Goodson and list LB Clay Matthews, guard Jahri Evans, CBs Davon House and Damarious Randall as questionable. Nick Perry is doubtful to play.

Minnesota (11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS) has already wrapped up the NFC North, but is still alive for homefield advantage throughout the conference playoffs if it gets some help from Eagles opponents. They’re looking to solidify a first-round bye by finishing No. 2 ahead of a New Orleans, Carolina and the L.A. Rams.

After seeing an eight-game winning streak end at Carolina, Minnesota rebounded with its most lopsided win of the season on Sunday, coasting against Cincinnati 34-7. The Vikings are 3-0 straight up and against the spread in games where they’ve been favored by more than five points this season and come in relatively healthy. The lone trouble spot is the secondary, where Tramaine Brock has been ruled out.

“Under is the story in the second Saturday game as the frozen tundra will see blistery conditions,” said Cooley from Bookmaker.eu. “We’ve dropped the opener 1.5 points currently and have 72 percent of the money on the under. As far as the side, pretty balanced action from the public thus far as we’ve only had to adjust the juice.”

The number is at 41 as of Saturday morning, so we’ll see how these teams handle the weather. The ‘over’ has prevailed in six of the last seven Packers games 10-4 on the season. It’s 7-7 in Vikings contests despite their elite defense. Minnesota has won three of the last four meeting after going through a 1-10-1 stretch against Green Bay from 2010-15.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL notebook: Raiders RB Lynch earns another fine
December 22, 2017

Oakland Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch was fined $24,309 by the NFL for yelling at an official near the end of Sunday's game against the Dallas Cowboys.

An irate Lynch screamed at the sideline official after Oakland quarterback Derek Carr reached for the pylon for the go-ahead touchdown and fumbled the ball forward through the end zone.

The play was correctly ruled a Dallas touchback and the Cowboys took possession with 31 seconds left in their 20-17 victory.

Earlier this season, Lynch was suspended for one game after making contact with an official. Lynch also drew a $12,000 fine in September for raising both middle fingers during a game.

--The Jacksonville Jaguars will attempt to clinch the AFC South title without wide receiver Marqise Lee, who was ruled out of Sunday's game against the San Francisco 49ers with an ankle injury.

The Jaguars ruled out Lee on Friday and listed fellow wide receiver Allen Hurns as questionable, also with an ankle injury.

Lee, who leads the team in catches (56) and receiving yards (702), sustained his ankle injury in Sunday's 45-7 rout of the Houston Texans. The 26-year-old also has three touchdowns receptions for the second straight season.

--Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterback Warren Moon denied allegations of sexual harassment and sexual battery by an assistant for his sports marketing firm and said that he had "witnesses that would testify" to their inaccuracy.

Speaking to Seattle's KIRO Radio 97.3 FM, Moon said that Wendy Haskell's allegations were "totally untrue" that he made "unwanted and unsolicited" sexual advances as part of her role as his assistant working for Sports 1 Marketing.

The lawsuit, which was filed earlier this month in Orange County (Calif.) Superior Court, alleges that soon after the 32-year-old Haskell was hired in July, Moon demanded that she "submit to a variety of unnerving sexual and perverse controlling arrangements, including sleeping in the same bed with him on all business trips, providing him unfettered access to the bathroom every time she showered, wearing skimpy lingerie while in the obligatory single room, obtaining prior approval for her wardrobe, and being subjected to continuous unwanted and unsolicited sexual advances."

--New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady diverted questions about the Boston Globe report that his personal trainer Alex Guerrero had several privileges restricted.

When asked his reaction after coach Bill Belichick told him that Guerrero wouldn't be allowed on the sideline, Brady offered the following:

"I don't really agree with your question, so I don't know what you're talking about. How do you know what he said?" Brady said.

Brady was then questioned whether the report was accurate, to which he said, "I'm not saying anything. How do you say (Belichick) said anything? You don't know anything about that."

[StarDust Bum]

Best Bets - Week 16 Sides
December 22, 2017

NFL Week 16 Best Bets – Sides

Week 16 means it's put up or shut up time for NFL teams on the fringe of playoff contention and we've got plenty of meaningful games across the board. Playoff races in both conferences are tight at the top and the bottom, so action all throughout the league on Sunday should have some very interesting and intriguing results.

Week 16 also means that there are plenty of teams in the spoiler role and with that comes a lot of lofty and inflated spreads. Casual bettors tend to fall victim to backing teams in those must-win roles as playoff contenders, but oddsmakers like to protect themselves in that regard by adding an extra half-point or so to the point spreads to make sure they are the great equalizer. With favorites going 14-0 SU last week, it's no surprise that books will shaded a few lines this week, as we've got nine teams laying a TD or more. A few of the underdogs on Sunday definitely look attractive, but it's these two that stick out like a sore thumb and I believe they are also very live for outright upsets this week.

Best Bet #1: Tennessee +7

The Tennessee Titans enter Week 16 as the 5th seed in the AFC, but they are trying to hold off the Ravens, Bills and Chargers with two weeks remaining. So while this is considered a “must-win” game for the Titans, they are the ones not getting much respect as they host a L.A Rams team that just dismantled the Seattle Seahawks a week ago. The Rams are a win away from locking up the NFC West, but after that dominant performance in Seattle seven days ago, L.A is primed for a letdown this week.

For one, it's an early body clock game for the Rams here and that's never a great thing for West Coast teams. This is still a young team that has probably spent part of this week reading their press clippings about how good they looked last week and trusting them to win by a TD or more on the road with an early start time is tough.

Secondly, there's potential for a huge letdown situation here as everyone knows the Rams focus for much of the year was beating big bad Seattle to try and claim the NFC West and boy did they ever put a whooping on the Seahawks last week. Add in the fact that Tennessee is a quality team themselves and do have plenty to play for in this spot, and this is simply too many points to not take. Tennessee could still win their own division if they can get some help from the 49ers this week and beat Jacksonville in Week 17, so bettors better be ready for the Titans to show up with their best effort of the year.

Finally, given the specific scenarios here and the Titans actually knowing what the 8-6 Baltimore Ravens have done before them (Baltimore plays on Saturday), this is actually a game where I believe the Titans ML (+250) is definitely in play and giving them 7 points is just absurd. Yes, the Rams looked like world beaters last week, but this is simply a horrible spot for them against a team that still has plenty to play for and I've got no problem grabbing all these points.

Best Bet #2: San Francisco +4

I touched on the 49ers earlier as a team that could potentially help Tennessee quite a bit this week, as San Francisco hosts Jacksonville in a matchup of two pretty hot teams. San Francisco has won three in a row – all with QB Jimmy Garoppolo starting – and host a Jags team that's won three in a row themselves. But Jacksonville clinched a playoff berth for the first time in 10 years with their win last week, and similar to the Rams, they are primed for a letdown role this week and are on the road laying points.

Jacksonville's situation this week has a lot of parallels with what the Rams did in Week 15 as the Jags beat up on a banged up Houston team (45-7) to ensure they'd be playing football in January. One more win for Jacksonville will give them the division crown (as it will with the Rams), but flying cross-country and laying points in a non-conference tilt (just like the Rams are), is flat out a horrible spot. Jacksonville is also 1-9 ATS after scoring 40+ points and non-conference games have not treated this organization well at all as they are 3-17 ATS in their last 20 tries.

San Francisco may be a team that's known their season has been over for quite some time, but this is a team that's been playing some inspired football with Garoppolo at the helm as everyone in the organization knows that he could be the centerpiece of their future. The 49ers have quite a bit of confidence right now – especially at home – and beating AFC South teams that currently are playoff bound in back-to-back weeks would be another notch in the belt of this team building for the future.

Jacksonville knows that even with a SU loss this week the AFC South can still be theirs with a home win over the Titans next week (should Tennessee win), so a loss doesn't hurt them that much. Also, should Tennessee lose SU in the earlier Sunday afternoon session, Jacksonville will have clinched the division before they even kickoff for this game and how can you not see a letdown coming for them if that's the case?



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Best Bets - Week 16 Totals
December 22, 2017

NFL Week 16 Best Bets – Totals

Handicapping totals during this time of the NFL season can be a bit tricky because motivation becomes more of a concern for half of the league that's already out of playoff contention, and pressure on the other half to make their late playoff push can often do funny things.

Throw on top of that weather conditions becoming more of a concern in certain cities, and the idea that the focus of bettors is more on side plays with the playoff push coming to an end and some totals will simply get neglected/ignored because of too many variables involved.

With that in mind we've seen most of the totals on the Week 16 board stay pretty steady relative to their opening number, although there are a few games that have already moved more than a full point as some look to get out ahead of the market. Totals moving around that much is really no different than any other week in NFL betting, but with more variables potentially in play this week, there is one game where they are minimal across the board and it's the lone play I've got this week as a best bet.

This NFC South rivalry game is a rematch from a TNF game in Week 14 in Atlanta that saw the Falcons prevail with a 20-17 victory. That contest was on a short week, but the total closed at 51.5, so having oddsmakers open this rematch up almost a FG higher was quite interesting. There is also no question that the variables I discussed in the open will all basically be negated in this game.

Motivation will not be an issue for either side in this game as both are still trying to stake their claim to the NFC South crown. Atlanta can win the division once again if they win out the rest of the way, while New Orleans likely needs to do the same. With the Saints coming out on the short end of things in the first meeting, you know they'll want to put the ball in Drew Brees' hands to get this season series split.

Weather is definitely not going to be a concern being inside the Superdome in New Orleans as the Saints have really started to find their offensive groove from year's past in this building. The Saints have long been known as a team that airs the ball out and consistently moves the ball up and down the field at home (and also allows opponents to do the same), and that's starting to become truthful again in the latter half of the year.

The last three home games for the Saints have all gone 'over' the number, and the Saints themselves have scored 30+ in all three of those games. It's actually been four straight for New Orleans topping the 30-point marker at home, and with a 5-2 O/U mark at home this year, if you are going to play a Saint's game 'over' it's best to do it when they are at home.

Atlanta knows that they'll have to come into this game prepared to win a shootout and while they haven't really shown they are that capable of doing that in 2017, the recent history of this team suggests they'll be plenty comfortable in a game that turns out that way. Seven of their last nine trips to New Orleans during the past few years have either landed on or above the posted total (6-2-1 O/U), and the Falcons are on a 3-0-1 O/U run this year on the road against a team with a winning record at home.

QB Matt Ryan has all the weapons around him to put up 30+ on this Saints defense that gives up 23.9 points per home game this year, but if you take away their three games against offensively-challenged teams from Tampa Bay, Chicago, and the Jets, that number rises up 31.5 points allowed per game at home. Given that those four games came against comparable offensive-minded teams like New England, Detroit, Washington, and Carolina (with three of the four scoring 30+ on New Orleans), Atlanta is just as talanted as those squads and should threaten that 30-point mark here.

So after the first meeting a few weeks back easily cashed an 'under' ticket in this rivalry, look for the exact opposite to happen this week. Both teams have had basically a full week of rest and are going to rely on their strength (offense) to get the job done in a game they both want to win. The Saints are 15-5-1 O/U at home if you want to take their home numbers back ever further, and with a 6-1 O/U run after failing to cover the spread last time out, and a 6-0-1 O/U run at home against an opponent with a winning record away from home, expect this game to be one of those classic shootouts between the Falcons and Saints where it becomes a race to score 40+.

Best Bet: Over 53 points

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Best Bet
December 21, 2017

NFL Week 16 Saturday Best Bet
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Week 16 brings us another double-header on Saturday as we've got two games pitting playoff contenders against teams already out of the mix, and the results of these two games should make for an interesting rest of the weekend in the AFC and NFC North divisions.

Baltimore hosts Indianapolis in the first contest as the Ravens look to sneak into one of those Wildcard spots for the time being in the AFC, while Minnesota visits Green Bay and continues their push to a possible #1 seed in the NFC.

It's that Vikings/Packers game I've already added to my betting board as this division rivalry might not have the same intensity as it has in the past given where both teams sit in the standings. I believe I can use that mindset to my advantage here as Week 16 begins.

Minnesota (-9); Total set at 40.5

Even if the Vikings aren't able to pass the Philadelphia Eagles for that #1 seed, securing a 1st round bye would still be a happy consolation prize for this team heading into the playoffs. The Super Bowl is in Minnesota this year so there is strong potential that they end up getting home field advantage throughout the post-season (with the #1 seed or not) should the Vikings finish the season strong, and sweeping the season series with the Packers would be another notch on their belts in 2017. Minnesota did win the first meeting 23-10 in the game where LB Anthony Barr broke Packers QB Aaron Rodgers collarbone and a win on Saturday would give Minnesota their first season sweep over Green Bay in years.

The Packers have decided to shut Rodgers down for the rest of the year now that they are eliminated from playoff contention, and now it's time to truly see what they've got in backup Brett Hundley. Yes, Hundley started those seven games with Rodgers on the shelf, but those games were all about trying to stay afloat in the playoff race and Green Bay's coaching staff really coached Hundley and called plays with that in mind. The Packers were stuck in the mentality of “playing not to lose” rather than going out and being aggressive during that seven-game stretch and while they did manage to go 3-4 SU, beating the likes of Cleveland (in OT), Tampa Bay (in OT), and Chicago isn't really anything to write home about.

However, with Green Bay's 2017 fate now determined, there is no more need for the Packers coaching staff to treat Hundley with kid gloves. They've got two more games left to truly see what they've got with him and how well he can conduct this offense, and I fully expect the Packers to let him loose in this game. There is nothing left to lose now for Green Bay, and seeing if Hundley can produce against a Vikings team that he has already faced once this year (albeit in relief), now becomes the goal for this organization.

Minnesota's goal this week is to simply win and move on and when you combine that mentality with the likelihood of Green Bay pulling out all the stops, that -9 on the road is a lot of chalk to swallow. Fading a team after they clinched a division crown is one strategy I'm never really against (in any sport) as intensity on both sides of the ball tend to let up a bit and this could be that spot for the Vikings. The home team in this rivalry is 10-4 ATS the past 14 meetings which includes a 2-6 ATS run for Minnesota in Green Bay, and with the underdog cashing ATS tickets in five of the last six contests, I believe it's take the points with the Packers or nothing here.

The side isn't the only play I like in this game though as this total of 40.5 is much too low for a game like this. I've already discussed the notions of Green Bay opening up the playbook and letting loose, and when you combine that with a letdown in focus/intensity for this Vikings team that's just accomplished their first goal for the year (ie win the division), chances are we see some points.

Seven of the past 10 trips to Lambeau Field have resulted in 'over' tickets cashing for the Vikings, and Minnesota is on a 4-1 O/U run after allowing 7 or fewer points in their last game. Minneosta is also 4-1 O/U in their last five on the road as their defense doesn't seem to always travel with them, and Hundley will definitely be more prepared for what that Minnesota defense brings this time around.

On Green Bay's side, the Packers are 6-1 O/U in their last seven division games, including a 3-0 O/U run when they are the home side. They are also 8-2 O/U in their last 10 against a winning team, 6-1 O/U after failing to cover a point spread in their last outing, and defensively this Packers unit has given up 23 or more points in eight straight games against teams with a winning record currently. With no playoff push left to play for, that Packers D could lack some intensity of their own and that's never a bad thing when rooting for points.

Best Bets:

Green Bay +9
Over 40.5 points

[StarDust Bum]

BEST BETS:

[101] Indianapolis Colts +13.5 1.86
Game start 12/23/2017 01:30 PM

[102] TOTAL u41 1.90 (Indianapolis Colts vrs Baltimore Ravens)

Game start 12/23/2017 01:30 PM
[104] Green Bay Packers +9 1.84

Game start 12/23/2017 05:30 PM
[103] TOTAL o40.5 1.90 (Minnesota Vikings vrs Green Bay Packers)

Game start 12/23/2017 05:30 PM
[223] Army +6.5 1.95

Game start 12/23/2017 12:30 PM
[224] TOTAL u45.5 1.90 (Army vrs San Diego State)

Game start 12/23/2017 12:30 PM
[226] Toledo -6 1.90

Game start 12/23/2017 04:00 PM
[225] TOTAL o61 1.90 (Appalachian State vrs Toledo)

Game start 12/23/2017 04:00 PM
[228] Fresno State +1.5 1.90

Game start 12/24/2017 05:30 PM
[227] TOTAL o49 1.90 (Houston University vrs Fresno State)

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 23
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

IND at BAL 04:30 PM
IND +13.5
U 41.0

MIN at GB 08:30 PM
GB +8.5
O 41.0

[StarDust Bum]

Vikings shut out Packers 16-0, chasing 1st-round bye
December 24, 2017

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) The Minnesota Vikings shut out an opponent for the first time in nearly a quarter-century, beating the injury-depleted Green Bay Packers 16-0 on Saturday night to stay in the hunt for a first-round playoff bye.

Stefon Diggs caught a 4-yard pass from Case Keenum just inside the back line of the end zone in the first quarter for the only touchdown. The Vikings (12-3) have already clinched the NFC North and can secure a bye if Carolina loses or ties on Sunday against Tampa Bay.

The Vikings forced an incompletion into the end zone on fourth-and-4 from the 14 early in the fourth quarter to turn away the Packers' last best effort to get into the end zone. Safety Harrison Smith ended another Green Bay drive with an interception at the Minnesota 5 late in the second quarter.

Minnesota left frigid Lambeau Field with its first shutout since a 13-0 win over Detroit on Dec. 5, 1993. It was the first shutout over the Packers (7-8) since Nov. 14, 1971.

The Packers managed to hold a 239-236 edge in total yards. They were still shut out twice in a season for the first time since 2006.

RAVENS 23, COLTS 16

BALTIMORE (AP) - Joe Flacco threw for 237 yards and two touchdowns, Justin Tucker kicked three field goals and Baltimore beat Indianapolis to move a step closer to securing a playoff berth.

The Ravens (9-6) scored on their first two possessions and held off the skidding Colts (3-12) in a windy, rain-soaked second half.

Baltimore will reach the playoffs as an AFC wild card by beating Cincinnati at home next Sunday. The Ravens have won five of six following a 4-5 start.

Indianapolis made it tough on Baltimore, closing to 16-13 in the third quarter before Flacco threw a 4-yard touchdown pass to Maxx Williams with 8:40 remaining.

It was 23-16 when Anthony Walker blocked a Ravens punt, giving the Colts the ball at the Baltimore 27 with 2:36 left. Indianapolis moved to the 10 before a third-down sack and a fourth-down incompletion.

Flacco was 29 for 38. He has thrown for seven TDs with just one interception over his last four games.

[StarDust Bum]

december nfl best bets & opinions ( based on 5 units )

date w-l-t % units record

12/23/2017 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
12/18/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/17/2017 12-9-2 57.14% +10.50
12/16/2017 NO PLAYS
12/14/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/11/2017 NO PLAYS
12/10/2017 16-11-0 59.25% +19.50
12/07/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/04/2017 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
12/03/2017 11-17-0 39.29% -38.50

Totals..........43 - 44........49.42%............-27.00

best bets:......................ats.................... ..units.........................o/u....................units

12/23/2017..................1 - 1.....................-0.50............................1 - 1.................-0,50
12/18/2017..................1 - 0.....................+ 5.00..........................1 - 0.................+5.00
12/17/2017................4 - 3 - 1..................+8.50.........................5 - 4 - 1..............+3.00
12/16/2017................................N O P L A Y S................................................. ....
12/14/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50.............................0 - 1................-5.50
12/11/2017................................N O P L A Y S................................................. ......
12/10/2017..................6 - 3....................+13.50....................... ...5 - 3.................+8.50
12/07/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 1.................-5.50
12/03/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 0..................push
12/03/2017..................5 - 5.....................-2.50............................5 - 5..................-2.50

Totals..........................17 - 15..................+7.50......................... . 17 - 15...............+2.50

[StarDust Bum]

Pick Six - Week 16
December 23, 2017

Week 15 Record: 3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS
Overall Record: 43-47 SU, 38-48-2 ATS

Chargers (-6 ½, 42 ½) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST

Los Angeles
Record: 7-7 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, 10-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Chargers squandered a golden opportunity to take over first place in the AFC West in last Saturday’s 30-13 setback at Kansas City. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak as quarterback Philip Rivers threw three interceptions for the second time this season against the Chiefs. Since the 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS start to the season, Los Angeles has won and covered in seven of the past 10 games, while riding an 8-1 stretch to the UNDER the last nine contests.

New York
Record: 5-9 SU, 8-5-1 ATS, 8-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The Jets have dropped seven of nine games since a surprising 3-2 start, while coming off consecutive road losses at Denver and New Orleans. New York hung in last week’s loss at the Superdome, while cashing as 16 ½-point underdogs in a 31-19 defeat. The Jets turn to Bryce Petty once again at quarterback after Josh McCown suffered a season-ending hand injury at Denver. New York closes out its home slate looking to finish 7-1 ATS at Met Life Stadium, while already picking up home ‘dog wins over Miami, Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Kansas City.

Best Bet: Chargers -6 ½

Rams (-6 ½, 46 ½) at Titans – 1:00 PM EST

Los Angeles
Record: 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

The Rams made a bold statement in last Sunday’s 42-7 rout of the Seahawks in Seattle that they are not only the team to beat in the NFC West, but also a threat to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. Running back Todd Gurley racked up 152 yards on the ground and three touchdowns, including a 57-yard touchdown scamper on 3rd and 20 to give the Rams a 34-0 halftime edge. Los Angeles has done most of its damage on the road this season by posting a 6-1 record away from the Coliseum, including a 3-1 ATS mark as an away favorite.

Tennessee
Record: 8-6 SU, 6-7-1 ATS, 8-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The Titans wrap up a three-game stretch against NFC West opponents as Tennessee tries to break through following close losses at Arizona and San Francisco. Tennessee still has an outside shot to clinch the AFC South title, but needs a victory on Sunday and a Jacksonville loss at San Francisco to set up the division championship next week against the Jaguars at home. The Titans have excelled at Nissan Stadium this season by winning five of six games, while being listed as a home underdog for the first time.

Best Bet: Titans +6 ½

Falcons at Saints (-5 ½, 52 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta
Record: 9-5 SU, 6-8 ATS, 9-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Falcons are playing their best football at the right time by winning five of their past six games. Atlanta held off Tampa Bay last Monday night, 24-21 as the Falcons failed to cash as seven-point road favorites, but improved to 5-2 away from Mercedes Benz Stadium. The defending NFC champions seek the season sweep of the Saints after beating New Orleans, 20-17 in Week 13 for their third consecutive win in the series.

New Orleans
Record: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS, 8-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

Since pulling off eight consecutive victories, the Saints have split their last four games as they sit in a tie atop the NFC South with Carolina (New Orleans holds the tiebreaker). However, the Saints have covered only once in their past five contests, including a pair of non-covers as heavy home favorites against the Jets and Redskins. New Orleans has topped the 30-point mark in each of its previous four home games, while scoring exactly 32 points in each of its two defeats to Atlanta last season.

Best Bet: Falcons +5 ½

Bills at Patriots (-12, 47) – 1:00 PM EST

Buffalo
Record: 8-6 SU, 8-5-1 ATS, 7-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

Following a 30-point rout at the hands of the Chargers in mid-November, the Bills have suddenly won three of four games to stay alive for a Wild Card berth. The lone loss in this stretch came at home to the Patriots in Week 14 as 7 ½-point underdogs, 23-3, the 13th home defeat to New England in the past 14 seasons. However, the Bills have won in Foxboro in two of the past three seasons, including a 16-0 shutout in 2016, although Tom Brady didn’t play as he was serving a four-game suspension.

New England
Record: 11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS, 8-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 11/5

The Patriots wrapped up their ninth consecutive AFC East title in a controversial finish in a 27-24 triumph at Pittsburgh. Dion Lewis scored the go-ahead touchdown with under a minute remaining in regulation, while the potential game-winning score by Pittsburgh was overturned on instant replay. New England improved to 15-1 in its past 16 road contests, while cashing the UNDER in eight of the previous 10 games overall. Since starting the season 0-3 at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots have covered in each of their past three home victories.

Best Bet: Patriots -12

Jaguars (-4, 42) at 49ers – 4:05 PM EST

Jacksonville
Record: 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 7-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Jaguars clinched their first playoff berth since 2007 as Jacksonville finished off a three-game homestand a perfect 3-0 following a 45-7 blowout of Houston as 10 ½-point favorites. After scoring 30 points only twice in the first 11 games, Jacksonville eclipsed the 30-point mark in each of the past three contests. Two of Jacksonville’s four losses this season have come against NFC West opponents, losing to Los Angeles and Arizona, while allowing 27 points in each of those defeats.

San Francisco
Record: 4-10 SU, 7-7 ATS, 8-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The 49ers have found their quarterback as Jimmy Garoppolo owns a perfect 3-0 record since taking over the starting spot. The most recent victory came against Tennessee last Sunday, 25-23, the second win in three weeks coming on a last-second field goal. San Francisco has cashed in three of the past four opportunities in the underdog role, as the Niners host the Jaguars for only the second time in franchise history (20-3 win in 2009).

Best Bet: 49ers +4

Seahawks at Cowboys (-4 ½, 47 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Seattle
Record: 8-6 SU, 5-8-1 ATS, 8-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

Seattle’s playoff chances took a major hit with losses the last two weeks to Jacksonville and Los Angeles. The Seahawks were run from the start in a 42-7 defeat to the Rams last Sunday, suffering their third home loss of the season. Seattle has struggled in the road underdog role this season, posting a 1-3 SU/ATS record with all three losses coming by eight points or less. The Seahawks are making their first trip to Dallas since edging the Cowboys, 13-12 in 2015 as 4 ½-point road favorites.

Dallas
Record: 8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, 8-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

Ezekiel Elliott returns for the Cowboys following a six-game suspension looking to boost Dallas’ offense. Following a three-game skid to begin Elliott’s ban, the Cowboys rebounded with three straight victories to get back into the playoff race. The key to this winning streak has been on the defensive side as Dallas has yielded 17 points or fewer in all three victories. The UNDER cashed in five of six games without Zeke, compared to a 5-3 OVER mark in the first eight contests of the season.

Best Bet: Cowboys -4 ½

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 16
December 23, 2017

Wise guys have been betting the Browns (0-14) weekly just because their numbers didn't add up with the sports books. they were taking advantage of the luxury tax placed on the Browns opponents getting luxury tax that often was higher than 25 percent of what the proper line should be. The masses playing small money and parlays would simply take who ever the Browns were playing. The public has won 11 of 14 games this season by simply betting against the Browns.

This week is a little different, though. The Bears (4-10) at -6.5 is the raw rating number. There is no edge for the sharps, although they did grab +7 early in the week. The Bears would appear to be the perfect team for the Browns to finally win against. The weather conditions in Chicago are also favorable for the Browns because it puts both teams at a disadvantage. It's supposed to be 24 degrees with 10 mph winds and snow is a possibility.

Beyond the weather, the Bears have been awful lately and they've lost their last seven games when favored. They've lost six of their last seven and have covered the number only once in their last six. The total has dropped slightly from 38.5 to 38. Something to consider with the weather is that the Bears have stayed Under in 10 of 14 games this season, including their last four. The Browns average 14.8 ppg and the Bears average 16.7 ppg, and that's with mostly good weather.

The other team in Ohio has looked like the worst team in football the past two weeks. After playing extremely well three weeks ago in a 23-20 loss to the Steelers, the Bengals (5-9) decided to pack it in and tank. It started with a 33-7 home loss to the Bears and then a 34-7 loss at Minnesota. Marvin Lewis is quitting after the season and Andy Dalton looks like the worst QB in football, but sharp money likes them this week at home against the Lions (8-6). Detroit opened -4 and it's been bet down to -3.

"Yeah, we've been seeing sharp action on the Bengals and I can't figure out why," said William Hill's head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich, noting the Bengals terrible play lately. "It's beyond me, I can't figure the NFL out. These are the same guys that have been lining up to bet the Browns every week."

Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick also said he's seen sharp Bengals money comes through his bet windows. The Lions are fighting for a playoff berth.

The best game of the morning has the Falcons (8-6) visiting the Saints (10-4). New Orleans is a 6-point favorite with a few books like Station Casinos and CG Technology at -5.5. The Saints have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five while the Falcons have won five of their last six, including a 20-17 win at home against the Saints three weeks ago. The total is the highest of Week 16 at 52.5.

The Westgate SuperBook has odds to win the NFC South posted with the Saints -200, Falcons at 7/2 and Panthers at 9/2. The Panthers play at Atlanta next week while the Saints are at Tampa Bay. If thinking about the Bucs winning next week, consider that the Saints have beat everyone they were supposed to. Their only losses came as underdogs against the Vikings, Patriots, Rams and Falcons.

Broncos money has pushed the Westgate down from Redskins -3.5 down to -3 EVEN. The Broncos have won their last two games, including their first road win last week at Indianapolis. They are now 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games.

The Chiefs (8-6) are fighting for their playoffs lives and get a visit from the Dolphins (6-8). The Chiefs opened -10 and have been bet up to -10.5.

There's no Sunday night game, but the feature afternoon game has the Seahawks (8-6) visiting Dallas (8-6) where there's still a glimmer of playoff hope for each team. They each need to win their last two games and have the Lions and Falcons experience misfortune.

"We just took a big bet on the Seahawks," Bogdanovich said Saturday afternoon. "I don't get that move, either. Could you bet the Seahawks right now?"

The Seahawks wager moved William Hill books from the Cowboys being 5-point favorites down to -4.5. The Cowboys have won their last three (2-0-1 ATS) and get RB Ezekiel Elliott back from a six-game suspension. Seattle has lost its last two games, the worst coming last week in a 42-7 home loss against the Rams.

"We're going to be buried on the Rams," said Bogdanovich about the Rams (10-4) one sided parlay action as 6.5-point road favorites at Tennessee (8-6). The Rams are fighting for a first round bye and the Titans have lost two straight and are trying to hang to one of the wild cards.

An intriguing match-up this week has the Jaguars (10-4) as 4-point favorites at San Francisco (4-10) with the 49ers riding a three game win streak. McCormick said sharp money is on the 49ers while the public is all over the Jaguars. Bogdanovich has seen the same thing, but his action will end up being a little different.

"We've got all those books up north and those bettors are fired about their 49ers being good again," said Bogdanovich who operates 107 sports books throughout Nevada.

The Jaguars have won seven of their last eight and have covered the spread in their last three. They've become a very public team lately.

The Patriots have dropped from 12.5-point home favorites down to -11.5 against the Bills who are attempting to hold on to the final wild card, but the large spread doesn't have the masses jumping on them like they usually do. But if the day ends with the Rams, Jaguars and Patriots all covering it's going to be a losing day for the house paying lots of 6-to-1 payouts on three-team parlays.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 16
December 23, 2017

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8

Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15


Week 16

1) L.A. Rams -6.5 (766)
2) Jacksonville -4.5 (694)
3) New Orleans -5.5 (671)
4) Dallas -4.5 (606)
5) Tennessee +6.5 (559)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 16 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Indianapolis (+13.5) 266 Baltimore (-13.5) 293
Minnesota (-9) 423 Green Bay (+9) 397
Detroit (-4.5) 541 Cincinnati (+4.5) 558
L.A. Chargers (-6.5) 432 N.Y. Jets (+6.5) 312
L.A. Rams (-6.5) 766 Tennessee (+6.5) 559
Cleveland (+6.5) 461 Chicago (-6.5) 212
Tampa Bay (+10) 197 Carolina (-10) 414
Atlanta (+5.5) 536 New Orleans (-5.5) 671
Denver (+3.5) 241 Washington (-3.5) 426
Miami (+10.5) 268 Kansas City (-10.5) 214
Buffalo (+11.5) 519 New England (-11.5) 244
Jacksonville (-4.5) 694 San Francisco (+4.5) 519
N.Y. Giants (+3.5) 227 Arizona (-3.5) 232
Seattle (+4.5) 464 Dallas (-4.5) 606
Pittsburgh (-9) 286 Houston (+9) 296
Oakland (+8.5) 216 Philadelphia (-8.5) 450

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 0-5 0-5 0%
2 3-2 3-7 30%
3 2-3 5-10 33%
4 4-1 9-11 45%
5 1-4 10-15 40%
6 2-3 12-18 40%
7 0-5 12-23 34%
8 2-3 14-26 35%
9 3-2 17-28 38%
10 1-4 18-32 36%
11 4-1 22-33 40%
12 3-2 25-35 42%
13 5-0 30-35 46%
14 3-2 33-37 47%
15 2-1-2 35-39-2 47%

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 16
Monty Andrews

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 44)

Dolphins' turnover troubles vs. Chiefs' impressive ball security

The Kansas City Chiefs have apparently fixed what was plaguing them in recent weeks and are back in control of their own destiny atop the AFC West division as they entertain the Miami Dolphins this Sunday. The Chiefs restored order in the West with critical home victories over the division-rival Oakland Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers, and will look to exploit a significant edge in the turnover department to send the visiting Dolphins to their second consecutive defeat.

The Chiefs looked nothing like the team that inexplicably dropped six of seven games following a 5-0 start, improving to 4-1 against divisional opponents with double-digit triumphs over the Raiders and Chargers. Kansas City controlled the ball security battle in both games, forcing Los Angeles and Oakland into a whopping seven turnovers while committing just one itself. That gives the Chiefs a plus-12 turnover differential for the season, behind only the Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Things haven't been nearly as good for the Dolphins in the turnover category, which is one of the main reasons why Miami is already looking to next season. Miami comes into this one with an ugly minus-11 turnover differential, the third-worst mark in the league; the two team behind them, Cleveland and Denver, are a combined 5-23 in the standings. Miami ranks second-last in the NFL with 20 interceptions (thanks, Jay Cutler), and should add to that total against a sensational Kansas City defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-9.5, OFF)

Buccaneers' FG foibles vs. Panthers' elite kicking game

Carolina is almost assured a playoff berth heading into Sunday afternoon's encounter with the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers - but it's the NFC South title that the Panthers desperately want. They come into this one tied with the New Orleans Saints at 10-4, though New Orleans owns the tiebreaker between the teams. The Panthers look to extend their winning streak to three, and they're well positioned to do that against the woeful Bucs - particularly with such a sizeable edge in the kicking department.

It could have been a much different outcome for Tampa Bay this season had the Buccaneers fared better in close games; they're just 2-6 in contests decided by six or fewer points, and they can almost certainly blame their woeful kicking game for at least some of those narrow defeats. Tampa Bay has converted just 20-of-28 field goal chances on the season, good for a 71.4-percent success rate that ranks tied for 30th league-wide. That includes an ugly 7-of-14 rate on field goals of 40+ yards

With so many games decided by just a handful of points, having a top-flight kicking game is almost-certain path to success - and the Panthers are as good as it gets in that category. Carolina has connected on 25 of its 26 field goal opportunities so far in 2017, good for an NFL-leading 96.2-percent success rate. With its only miss coming from 50+ yards, Carolina has been automatic from 48 yards and in - and even if Tampa Bay somehow makes this one competitive Sunday, the Panthers will be hard to beat.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-5, 47)

Seahawks' frequent flags vs. Cowboys' sensational discipline

Sunday's encounter between the Seattle Seahawks and the host Dallas Cowboys could very well decide which team gets into the playoffs, and which team spends the postseason on the couch. Both teams come in at 8-6 and are very much in the hunt for a wild-card spot, though they're headed in opposite directions - Seattle fell 42-7 at home to the Rams on Sunday, while the Cowboys are rolling with three straight wins. And if this one comes down to penalties, the Cowboys are in terrific shape.

Seattle can point to several factors that have contributed to its recent struggles - and for losing its grip on the NFC West after years of dominance. But a lack of discipline is at or near the top of the list; the Seahawks have racked up a league-high 129 penalty flags through 14 games, and their 1,100 penalty yards are 136 more than the runner-up Kansas City Chiefs. The Seahawks had "just" nine penalties for 60 yards vs. the Rams, but drew just three flags for 25 yards from Los Angeles.

Dallas has been far more disciplined on the season, picking up just 83 penalties for 800 total yards. And the Cowboys have been even better in that regard during their critical three-game winning streak, getting flagged three times for 25 yards vs. Washington while drawing eight flags but only losing 51 yards against the Giants. This past weekend's 100-penalty-yard debacle against Oakland aside, Dallas has kept its composure this season - and that should work in its favor against undisciplined Seattle.

Oakland Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 47.5)

Raiders' third down problems vs. Eagles' drive-lengthening prowess

No Carson Wentz proved to be no problem at all for the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend, as they got past the division-rival Giants to secure a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs. But there's still one important thing for the Eagles to play for: home-field advantage throughout the conference portion of the playoffs, which would happen with a win or a Minnesota Vikings loss. And Philly has a significant edge against the visiting Raiders when it comes to third-down prowess.

Expectations were high for the Oakland defense coming into the season, but the Raiders have disappointed in several areas. In addition to ranking last in the entire NFL in interceptions (four), Oakland is allowing teams to extend drives or score on 42.6 of their third-down opportunities - good for 27th out of 32 teams. It's no wonder, then, that the Raiders average just 28:39 time of possession per game, ahead of only seven other teams and more than two minutes less than last year's average.

The Eagles' offense is a sight to behold, tied with the high-powered Rams for the most points in the league through 15 weeks. And Philadelphia's work on third down has a lot to do with that - the Eagles have made good on 45.4 percent of their third downs this season, behind only the Atlanta Falcons. Add in the fact that Philadelphia has also converted 15-of-22 fourth-down chances, and it could be a long game for an already beleaguered Oakland defensive unit.