The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 14
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

DEN at IND 08:25 PM

IND +3.0

O 41.0

[StarDust Bum]

december nfl best bets & opinions ( based on 5 units )

date w-l-t % units record

12/14/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/11/2017 NO PLAYS
12/10/2017 16-11-0 59.25% +19.50
12/07/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/04/2017 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
12/03/2017 11-17-0 39.29% -38.50

Totals..........27 - 33........45.00%............-46.50

best bets:......................ats.................... ..units.........................o/u....................units

12/14/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50.............................0 - 1................-5.50
12/11/2017................................N O P L A Y S................................................. ......
12/10/2017..................6 - 3....................+13.50....................... ...5 - 3.................+8.50
12/07/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 1.................-5.50
12/03/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 0..................push
12/03/2017..................5 - 5.....................-2.50............................5 - 5..................-2.50

Totals..........................11 - 11..................-5.50.......................... .10 - 10...............-5.00

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, December 16

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (4 - 9) at DETROIT (7 - 6) - 12/16/2017, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DETROIT is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 60-84 ATS (-32.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 133-173 ATS (-57.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CHARGERS (7 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 6) - 12/16/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 118-89 ATS (+20.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 118-89 ATS (+20.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 95-68 ATS (+20.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 5-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, December 16

CHICAGO @ DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games at home

LA CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games
LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games

***********************


NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Saturday's games

Bears (4-9) @ Lions (7-6)— Chicago snapped 5-game skid with 33-7 win in Cincy LW; Bears are 2-4 on road, 3-3 as a road underdog. Chicago had four offensive TD’s LW, after having only one in its last two games combined. Lions lost four of last five home games; they ran ball for only 62.3 ypg in their last four games. Detroit had five takeaways in Tampa LW, after having one takeaway in previous three games. Detroit (-3) beat the Bears 27-24 at home four weeks ago, despite Chicago running ball for 222 yards. Lions won eight of last nine series games; their 17-14 loss here LY was their first in last four visits to the Windy City. Dogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this season. Under is 8-5 in Chicago games, 1-5 in last six Detroit games.

Chargers (7-6) @ Chiefs (7-6)— Teams are tied for first in AFC West. Chiefs (-3) beat Chargers 24-10 back in Week 3 for their 7th straight series win, running ball for 189 yards with a +3 turnover ratio. Bolts lost last three visits to Arrowhead, by 12-7-6 points. Chargers won four in a row, are 7-2 since their 0-4 start- they’ve allowed only 29 points in their last three games. Bolts are 3-3 on road, 4-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 3-8-3 points. Chiefs lost six of their last eight games; they’re 4-2 at home, 4-2 as home favorites. Home teams are 5-2-1 vs spread in AFC West games this season. Four of Chiefs’ last five games stayed under total, as did seven of last eight Charger games. Under for Chargers’ opponents is 8-1 in their last nine games.

*********************

NFL
Dunkel


Saturday, December 16

Chicago @ Detroit

Game 303-304
December 16, 2017 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
128.523
Detroit
131.643
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 3
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 7
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+7); Over

LA Chargers @ Kansas City

Game 305-306
December 16, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
134.332
Kansas City
137.864
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 3 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 1
46
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-1); Over


***************************

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Best Bet
December 14, 2017

Saturday NFL Best Bet
L.A Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

We've officially entered the time of the year where the NFL likes to schedule Saturday games and we've got two of them this week in Week 15 and two more next week in Week 16.

Why the NFL decides to do this during crunch time of the playoff chase is always going to be a mystery to me, because other than television ratings and trying to take viewership away from college football bowl games, it really doesn't make much sense.

However, with that being said, the NFL may have lucked out by scheduling this Chargers/Chiefs game in primetime on Saturday night as it's a battle for 1st place in the AFC West and it should be a highly entertaining contest.

L.A Chargers (-1); Total set at 46

Like nearly all divisional games this late in the year this game is a rematch from the first meeting these two had back in late September.

Kansas City prevailed 24-10 that day as they took advantage of three INT's by Phillip Rivers and used RB Kareem Hunt to salt away the game with his 172 rushing yards on 17 carries. However, the 2017 season as been a tale of two seasons for both of these clubs as Kansas could do no wrong during the first six weeks of the year and the Chargers couldn't really do a lot right.

Since about mid-October though it's been a complete role reversal as the Chargers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now with a 7-2 SU and ATS record in their last nine games while the Chiefs have gone 3-6 SU and ATS in that same span. They both enter Saturday's game with identical 7-6 SU records and by virtue of that head-to-head win, KC currently sits in 1st place in the division.

With the two teams basically going in opposite directions right now (although KC did snap their four-game losing streak last week) it wasn't surprising to see the Chargers flipping over to the favorite after opening numbers originally had the Chiefs laying a point at some shops. Action is about split with a 55/45 percentage in favor of L.A, as bettors always prefer to back the team in current better form. I'm inclined to agree with the slight majority there as L.A can't afford to fall a game behind KC in the standings – essentially two games if they get swept by the Chiefs – with only two weeks remaining.

I believe Rivers is playing some of the best football in his career right now, and the Chargers pass rush on defense is ferocious. But placing that “must-win” label on the Chargers, and even the Chiefs for that matter should always be cause for concern from a betting standpoint, and with the spread in the range that it is, staying away from the side is what I'm going to do here.

The total of 46 is seeing about a 60/40 split in favor of the 'over' when you look at VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers right now and it's this number I'm looking to attack. Similar to the side where I'm inclined to agree with the slight majority, I 100% agree with the small majority on the total as this 'over' play fits my eye on numerous levels.

For one, the 'over' play fits the divisional rematch flip-flop angle for totals that I prefer to play this time of year after the first game stayed well below the number. This Chargers offense is astronomically better than the one that was stumbling and bumbling during the first four weeks of the year that KC saw, and Rivers isn't about to throw three INT's again. And in case you were wondering, flipping totals plays a week ago in divisional rematch games went 3-1 against the number.

Secondly, Kansas City has found a bit of their mojo again with two straight weeks of 26+ points and they aren't about to rely solely on their defense to win this critical game. In Chiefs games this year where the final score finished with 40 or fewer points the Chiefs are 1-3 SU with that lone win coming in the first meeting with the Chargers. Much of KC's success this year has been predicated on the offense producing points and in all seven of their victories this year they've put up at least 24.

L.A's defense has gone three consecutive weeks without allowing more than 13 points and they've yet to allow more than 26 in any game this year, but I do believe KC will find a way to come close to that 24-point tally here as they'll look to be aggressive from the get-go in this high stakes contest.

This game has all the makings of something like a 27-24 finish going either way with both teams pulling out all the stops to get a critical win. Both QB's are more than capable, and more importantly often willing, to be aggressive with their decisions when they've got to be, and both coaches will have no problem putting the game in either Alex Smith or Phillip Rivers hands.

It will all come down to who can execute that key play late and that's why rather than banking on one or the other to do so and get the W, I'll roll with the notion of both guys will have some success throughout this game and put the onus on the respective defenses to make a stop down the stretch.


Best Bet: Over 46

[StarDust Bum]

Best Bets - Week 15 Sides
December 14, 2017

NFL Week 15 Best Bets – Sides

The playoff race is in full effect with only three weeks left in the regular season and aside from the top of the AFC, everything in both conferences is pretty tight. Week 15 brings us a handful of really crucial games (New England/Pittsburgh probably tops the list), but there are also plenty of games featuring playoff contenders who are up against teams with nothing but pride to play for and sometimes those can be the trickiest spots for playoff contenders.

Those “haves” vs “have nots” games can be even tougher from a handicapping perspective because lines are often a tad inflated in favor of the playoff contender, and they are usually the side that gets the majority of the support because few want to back bad teams that may or may not have given up on the year. But free and loose football teams are often quite dangerous and with more value on them in grabbing points, point spread bettors definitely have to be weary. There are three such games that fit that scenario this week with the Cincinnati Bengals (+11) in Minnesota, Houston (+12) in Jacksonville, and the NY Jets (+16) in New Orleans.

It's one of those three games that makes my card for Week 15 so let's get right to this week's Best Bet:

Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals +11

It's not hard for many to argue that the Bengals are a team that has indeed given up on the 2017 campaign after they were blown out at home by the Chicago Bears last week. Cincinnati's season came crashing down on them the week before when they blew a 17-0 lead at home against Pittsburgh and without question that loss took all the wind out of Cincy's sails. I'm not going to argue that the Bengals didn't quit last week as they were absolutely awful against Chicago, but just cause a team bound for a long off-season quits one week doesn't always mean they will the rest of the way.

The Bengals travel to Minnesota this week to face off against the NFC North-leading Vikings and see an old friend in Mike Zimmer. Zimmer was responsible for the Bengals defense soaring to new heights a few years back as their defensive coordinator as he parlayed that success into getting this head coaching gig in Minnesota, and given the success he's had during his time there, some Bengals may wish they had him leading the way on their sideline rather then Marvin Lewis these days (I know many Bengals fans are at least).

But last week's loss to the Bears has forced oddsmakers to inflate this line way too much in my opinion because it was clear as day that the Bengals quit in that game and it's next to impossible to erase/ignore that from the minds of most bettors. About 75% of the action has already come Minnesota's way according to VegasInsider.com's betting percentages, as bettors have minimal concerns about this being an inflated number. They saw the Bengals quit last week and expect the same thing to happen this week against a much better opponent.

But an inflated number is still and inflated number and I'm not sure how Minnesota covers this big spread in the sandwich spot that they are in. Last week the Vikings were in tough on the road at Carolina (31-24 loss) and next week they go to Green Bay to face a Packers team with Aaron Rodgers back in the mix. Remember it was the Vikings LB Anthony Barr who broke Rodgers' collarbone and put him on the shelf for that extended time. With that being a division game there will already be plenty of hostility, but after what happened in the first meeting, you know the Vikings probably already have an eye on that trip to Lambeau next week. How could they not, they saw the Bengals quit last week like everyone else did and probably aren't going to be as focused as those 75% of Minnesota backers believe they will be.

Finally, as long-standing Bengals fans will tell you, during all the abysmal years they've had since the early 1990's it's this type of game at the end of the year where they often show up and play well. For whatever reason this Bengals organization loves to be in the spoiler role and although that is usually reserved for divisional games, spoiling things for an old friend in Mike Zimmer and making the Vikings path to a division crown a little tougher fits pretty well too. Remember, if the Vikings were to lose SU this week and Green Bay and Detroit win, the NFC North is still technically up for grabs.

Cincinnati probably won't win this game outright, but with a 6-2 ATS run going in road games, a 5-1 ATS run going after losing by 10+ at home, and a 4-0 ATS run going after giving up 30+ points, this is too many points to give them in a contest that will likely be decided by a TD or less. Give me the points here as hopefully the Bengals decide to show some fight this week and give Minnesota everything they can (or maybe can't) handle.

[StarDust Bum]

Best Bets - Week 15 Totals
December 15, 2017

NFL Week 15 Best Bets – Totals

After what we saw in Buffalo in Week 14, it should bear reminding many that checking weather reports across the NFL each week now that we've hit December is something that should become part of your handicapping routine.

Typically it's wind and mass amounts of snow that have the most effect on the potential outcome of a game as those are the elements that concern me the most, but other than some potential rain in Seattle and Pittsburgh this week, the overall weather forecast looks pretty decent for Week 15.

The games we've got on Sunday for this week are highlighted by those showdowns in Seattle and Pittsburgh actually and it will be interesting to see how much rain there will end up being and how much of an effect it will actually have.

The Seahawks are quite used to playing in damp conditions up in the Pacific Northwest, and with first place in the NFC West essentially on the line in that game vs the Rams, bettors could be in for quite the viewing experience. That game has actually made my board for best bets this week on NFL totals, but it's a 1 p.m. EST game that gets this week's article started.

Best Bet #1: Houston/Jacksonville Over 38.5

There are a couple of interesting things about this game right off the bat. First off, we've got a Jacksonville Jaguars team laying double-digits for the second time in three weeks and I can't remember the last year we saw the Jags even get listed as a double-digit favorite once.

Secondly, they could end up going 2-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite this year with an ATS victory this week although nearly 70% of the action has bettors grabbing the points with Houston.

Finally, this game will have Texans 3rd string QB T.J Yates under center and when bettors hear “third-string QB” their minds instantly go to all the potential disaster scenarios said team could have (which makes the majority of bettors taking the points with Houston ATS rather interesting, although I'm sure it's more of the notion that Jacksonville shouldn't be laying that many points to anyone).

Disaster scenarios can be good for points though as turnovers give the opponent a short field to work with and no defense has a better turnover differential right now then the Jacksonville Jaguars do (+14). That number might regress a bit for the Jags coming down the stretch, but I've got no problem counting on a turnover or two to help Jacksonville put up a quick score at least once in this game. The other thing about 3rd string QB's getting the starting nod – especially ones against a top tier defense like the Jags have – is oddsmakers are forced to put up a lower number then they probably really want to to protect themselves against getting pounded by action on the low side of the total.

This game is seeing about 65% of the action on the 'under' according to VegasInsider.com which I simply don't understand given the correlation with Houston getting more love ATS. The Texans defense can't stop anyone these days and has allowed 20+ points in seven straight games.

With Jacksonville coming off two consecutive performances of scoring 30 points, chances are this Jags team puts up between 20 and 30 this week.

If that's the case, I don't see how you can't like this game to go 'over' the number and get 40+ points. The Texans have been playing higher scoring games with winning teams the past few months as they are 5-2 O/U against a team with a winning record, while the Jags are on a 9-4 O/U run at home and have gone 5-2 O/U after an ATS win. Those are definitely numbers I can get behind.

Best Bet #2: L.A. Rams/Seattle Over 47.5

This is another divisional rematch game this week and the stakes couldn't get much higher. First place in the NFC West is basically on the line and for the upstart Rams, beating Seattle is one of “hurdles” they've got to climb if they want to take the next step.

L.A. couldn't get it done earlier in the year with a 16-10 loss, but maybe that next step for QB Jared Goff actually needs to take place in hostile territory on the road. With this game being essentially like a division championship game, I'm expecting both sides to rely on their strengths. For Seattle their strength used to be debatable, but with all the injuries they've had on the back end of their defense this year, they've clearly become an offensive team that's led by MVP candidate Russell Wilson.

Raining or not, Wilson should find plenty of success against this Rams defense the second time around, especially since he got a great piece of game film to study from the Philadelphia Eagles success against the Rams last week. Seattle averages 28 points/game at home this year and should have little issue at least threatening that number in this one.

The Rams strength is clearly on offense as they went toe-to-toe with the Eagles last week before a fourth quarter fumble by Goff swung the tide in that game and the Eagles grabbed the lead and never let go. It's been a mistake here and there that has hurt the Rams at times this year, but there is no denying that this is one of the better attacks in the league and Goff and company could light up this wounded Seattle secondary all afternoon.

L.A. was held to just 10 points in that first meeting, but that day they had to deal with the likes of Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor on the back end, but Sherman and Chancellor have been lost for the year since that game and Thomas can only do so much.

Seattle might also be without DB replacement Byron Maxwell and LB's Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. Those potential losses at LB are huge for Seattle's defense and while Maxwell isn't spectacular, if he's not able to go it means that Seattle's now going like 5 or 6th string deep at DB. That's got to be music to the ears of the Rams offensive players as they enter this critical contest.

The rain in the forecast may also play a part in creating a few turnovers and quick-strike scores following, but when it comes down to it, with how banged up Seattle's defense is, they are going into this game knowing they'll need 28+ just to have a chance to win. The Rams have a 5-1 O/U record in road games this year with the average score in those games being 56 points. This is a game that should see 50+ scored again as these teams go back-and-forth and trade scores for the right to be called NFC West division leader (and likely champion).

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Essentials
December 15, 2017

Chicago at Detroit (-5, 44), 4:30 ET, NFLN

One of Sunday’s biggest stories will be the return of Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, who has to deal with the defenses of Carolina and Minnesota before a Week 17 trip into Detroit. That’s a far more taxing road than the Lions (7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) face as they attempt to get to the final game of the regular season with playoff aspirations still intact, but no one is really talking about them. With a trip to Cincinnati coming up following this clash against the Bears (4-9 SU, 7-5-1 ATS), the path to a 10-win season, which would be the franchise’s third in seven seasons after none from 1996-2010, is well within reach.

The Lions have won five of seven on the road but have had tough luck at Ford Field, where they haven’t played since a 30-23 Thanksgiving day loss to Minnesota. That loss was their fourth in five home games. Detroit’s only win since claiming the season opener against Arizona came vs. Cleveland on Nov. 12. The five points they’re laying are the second-most they’ve been asked to cover since that 38-24 win over the Browns that they cleared as a 10-point favorite.

After blowing a 21-7 lead in Tampa Bay last week, Matt Prater connected on a 46-yarder with 20 seconds left to give the Lions their first win since beating the Bears 27-24 on a Prater 52-yarder that held up when Chicago kicker Conner Barth missed a 46-yarder on the game’s final play. Matthew Stafford threw for 299 yards and a pair of scores against the Bears, who were missing top linebacker Danny Trevathan due to injury. In the three games he’s missed -- one due to suspension -- Chicago went 0-3 and gave up 27 points per game. Over the last two, the defense has held opponents to an average of 11 points and he’s had 10 tackles in each, so his presence alone should be a game-changer.

Following a two-game absence due to a neck issue he felt he could’ve played through last week, Ameer Abdullah returns to add another weapon to Detroit’s arsenal. Theo Riddick remains one of the NFL’s top receiving threats out of the backfield and tight end Eric Ebron comes off a career-best 10-catch, 94-yard effort in Tampa, so Stafford will have plenty of options in addition to the explosive receiving trio of Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and rookie Kenny Golladay.

Detroit will be without center Travis Swanson due to a concussion and right tackle Rick Wagner for a second straight game because of a bum ankle. Guard Graham Glasgow will slide over to snap, while young guard Joe Dahl and vulnerable tackle Corey Robinson will fill in. Another starting guard, veteran T.J. Lang, is questionable due to a foot issue.

The defense is in much better shape with corners Nevin Lawson and Jamal Agnew expected to play and top pass-rusher Ziggy Ansah (ankle) also likely to go.

Bears rookie QB Mitch Trubisky threw for 179 and a score in his first game against the Lions, while Jordan Howard did the heavy lifting with 125 rushing yards on just 15 carries. He scored twice in last week’s 33-14 win in Cincinnati, gaining 147 yards on 23 attempts. Trubisky ran for a touchdown and threw for one, completing a career-best 25 passes for 271 yards.

The offense racked up a season-high 482 yards, while Howard went over the 1,000-yard mark, becoming the first back in franchise history to go over that clip in each of their first two seasons. With Tarik Cohen available as a game-breaker and Kendall Wright coming off a 10-catch day, the Bears are looking more formidable than their record indicates, especially with the defense generating sacks and turnovers.

“I think everyone is looking forward to some Saturday night NFL at this point of the season, and handles should be solid for these two matchups,” said Scott Cooley, spokesman for Bookmaker.eu . “Smart money is on the Bears right now as we’ve dropped the spread 1.5 points. The Lions aren’t exactly a sexy, public team while Chicago always has its public backers so we’ve definitely got some liability on the dog here. Currently, we have almost 75 percent of the money on the Bears.”

The public stance certainly ignores recent results in this series since Detroit has won eight of nine outright. Only three of those victories have come by seven or more points, so the Bears do tend to hang around and have dropped their last two visits to Ford Field by just a single point. The total is hovering around 43.5-44. The Week 11 game snapped a run of three straight ‘unders’ in the series. A Detroit win would clinch the OVER on their season win total (7.5). The Bears (5.5) would still have more work to do.

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City (PK, 46.5), 8:25 ET, NFLN

After winning a must-win game against Oakland on Sunday, the Chiefs (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS) can just about wrap up the AFC West title with a tidy little bow by holding serve against the Chargers (7-6 SU, 7-5-1) here. A win wouldn’t be a clincher, but moves their magic number to one with games against the Dolphins and Broncos remaining. A loss doesn’t necessarily close the door on a division title or wild card for Kansas City, but certainly puts it in a bind.

Having already lost to the Chiefs once, the situation is dire for L.A., although finishing with the Jets and Raiders means it has hope regardless of what happens here. Thanks to their favorable schedules going forward, odds are great that the winner winds up as the AFC’s No. 4 seed, hosting the top wild card as the worst division winner.

Despite losing the first meeting at home by two touchdowns in Week 3, the Chargers are getting the nod as either a one-point favorite or a pick’em at Arrowhead. That’s a nod to the job they’ve done turning around a season where they opened 0-4.

Los Angeles has won seven of nine and looking for its first five-game winning streak since 2014. The losses in that stretch came by one possession in both New England and Jacksonville. The last five wins have come by a combined margin of 152-53.

Because they’re often at a disadvantage at home in a soccer stadium accommodating them until a permanent home is found after their move from San Diego, the Chargers have grown accustomed to hostile environments. They’ve won three of their six true road games outright and are 4-1-1 against the number.

Four of L.A.’s six losses have come by three or fewer points, but it has given up an average of 9.7 points over its last three wins. The ‘under’ has prevailed in seven of eight Chargers’ games and if 4-1 over Kansas City’s last five. The first meeting, a 24-10 Chiefs win, came in below the posted total and featured only one second-half score, a 69-yard Kareem Hunt TD run that put the game away inside the 2:00 warning.

Hunt finished with 172 rushing yards, still the highest output of his rookie season which was fueled by the longest run of his pro career. After seven games without getting over the century mark, Hunt ran for 116 yards on 25 carries in last week’s win over the Raiders, climbing over 1,000 for the season and fueling hope that he’ll be able to close well. Following an amazing start that saw him find the end zone six times in the first three games, Hunt reached the end zone last week for the first time since the first meeting against the Chargers back on Sept. 24.

The Chiefs have rediscovered their offensive punch since Andy Reid handed play-calling duties over to Matt Nagy, who has produced an average of 28.5 pints in splitting games against the Jets and Raiders. Throwing caution to the wind with an aggressive approach, Nagy has been innovative and has put his foot on the gas in calling for downfield pass and misdirection. We’ll see if that continues against the best defense he’s seen thus far since L.A.’s strength lies up front and will likely produce a persistent pass rush.

Alex Smith has thrown for an average of 317 passing yards over his last two games and broke off a 70-yard in the loss to the Jets. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have made plays, so he’s keeping his weapons happy after awful performances in losses to the Cowboys, Giants and Bills. He was sacked a season-high five times by the Chargers in Week 3, but still threw for two scores and didn’t turn it over. He’ll have to withstand the pressure he’s sure to face just as well.

Philip Rivers threw three picks against the Chiefs and has only tossed seven all season. He’s only had one game where he failed to fire a touchdown pass. Guess who that was against? He’ll be looking to make amends for that loss to Kansas City and continue in a rhythm that has seen him throw 10 TDs against just one interception since L.A.’s Week 9 bye. He’s already just 389 passing yards shy of 4,000 on the season and has thrown for 23 scores. Top wideout Keenan Allen has thrived with four consecutive 100-yard receiving games, catching 39 passes for 547 yards in that span.

With CB Marcus Peters back from suspension, Kansas City’s secondary has a fighting chance to slow Allen and a receiving corps that finally healthy and intact with Mike Williams in the mix and TE Hunter Henry overcoming a hyperextended knee. L.A.’s primary injury concern is top corner Casey Hayward, who is dealing with a calf issue. The Chiefs won’t have center Mitch Morse and list disruptive Tamba Hali as questionable with a knee injury.

“There was a big swing in the late game as we immediately took sharp action on L.A. We were as high as Chargers -2, but recently got some respected Chiefs money so the spread has come back a half point,” Cooley said about what Bookmaker.eu was seeing as of Wednesday. “We’re 50-50 on the public money, but expecting to see more on that side as kickoff approaches.”

The Chiefs were 9/2 at Westgate to win the AFC West when the season began, while the Chargers were a little better regarded as a 9/4 choice behind the favored Raiders (5/4). Entering Saturday’s game, Oakland is 22/1 to win the division after last week’s missed opportunity, while Kansas City (10/13) was a slight favorite over L.A. (11/10). A Chargers’ win would move their season win total, currently pushing, to the OVER side. Kansas City’s number was placed at 9, so they have to win out to surpass it.

Kansas City has dominated this series, last losing on Dec. 29, 2013. The Chiefs have won seven consecutive games, including the last three at Arrowhead. In four of their losses, the Chargers have managed 10 or fewer points. The under is 5-2 throughout Kansas City's seven-game run. The total here is in the 46-47 range.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Top 5 Wagers
December 15, 2017

Best Week 15 NFL Bets – Saturday Games Are Here!

You know it’s a proper NFL betting weekend when you have at least three gigantic favorites on the board. The Saints, Jaguars and Vikings are facing double-digits while a host of other teams are getting a touchdown or more on the betting line.

Thankfully, some sanity has found its way in to 2017! Let’s drive ourselves crazy trying to figure out the rest of the schedule.

Chicago Bears +5.5 over Detroit Lions (Saturday)

It’s that wonderful time of the season when there’s basically football every freaking day of the week. I love it, and getting things ripping on the Saturday slate for the NFL Week 15 bettors is Chicago visiting division rival Detroit. Most, if not all, of the action is leaning towards the home favorites.

I can’t tell why. Did nobody see Detroit give up a convincing two-score lead last week against Tampa Bay? Is the memory of their 20-44 blowout loss to Baltimore too far gone? How about the fact that they played Chicago a month ago and barely won 27-24? Any of this ringing a bell, or am I asking too many questions? Maybe both?

The Bears have been a dirty betting team recently. They lost as -2.5 point favorites to the Niners to go 0-3-1 ATS during a four-game losing streak, but bounced back in a huge way to throttle Cincinnati 33-7. The only reason you’re betting on the Bears is because you like their defence, which has 7 turnovers in the last four games.

Los Angeles Chargers -1.0 over Kansas City Chiefs (Saturday)

The second Saturday game is another divisional doozy. The red-hot Los Angeles Chargers visit the rejuvenated Kansas City Chiefs in a pick ‘em. Am I really getting that pumped up about a Chiefs team that has looked like a bunch of lost lambs just because they vindicated themselves against a hapless Raiders team that has no idea what they’re doing? Maybe.

To be fair, the Chargers do tend to blow a game late in the season that completely ruins their surge in to the playoffs. This reeks of that game, so if you’re the superstitious type then you’ll also be bolstered by the fact that the Chiefs are usually dominant against their division rivals. Kansas City is 8-1 ATS when playing the AFC West.

But the Chargers…man these Chargers are just irresistible. They’re 5-1 ATS when travelling and riding a 4-1 ATS hot streak that seems to good to pass up. Things are grooving with the new coaching staff, and that might be the difference maker that beings to level the 2-6 ATS record the Chargers have against Kansas City. New coach. New city. New outcome? I’ll pay to find out.

Carolina Panthers -2.5 over Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers is back! And I’m not entirely sure why. It does seem like the Packers are far from a true contender. They could barely hang on to beat Cleveland and were nearly caught by the Bucs as well. That has a lot more to do with the offence than the defence, and there’s no telling what Rodgers is capable of considering that his entire shoulder girdle has seemingly been strapped together by nails and duct tape.

The Panthers have been a gold mine anyways, going 5-1 SU and ATS in the last 6 weeks, and boast a true top-5 defence that is ranked 7th in passing. By the way, the Panthers are also ranked 3rd in the league with 40 sacks and there’s a reason Aaron Rodgers and Packers fans should be really, really worried.

Los Angeles Rams +2.5 over Seattle Seahawks

The late season Seahawks always grab the attention of gamblers, and for good reason. They’re 20-7-1 ATS when playing in December. The problem? Seattle is playing on serious borrowed time. There’s just too many injuries for this team to compete with the top tier in the NFL. They’re already 1-5-1 ATS when playing at home against winning teams. The Rams have a long way to go after losing to Minnesota and Philadelphia, but they also showed plenty of resolve on both ends of the ball in losing 10-16 to the fully powered Seahawks back in Week 6. Limit turnovers, hand Gurley the ball and get out of the freaking way.

New England Patriots -3 over Pittsburgh Steelers

Everyone is chasing the Steelers. They’re garnering nearly two-thirds of all the action on this game. I could easily write about 3,500 words on this game alone but I’ll save you from too much of a deep dive and focus on the real x-factors that should be influencing your decision.

Pittsburgh is coming off a zillion yard game by the one and only Ben Roethlisberger during a thrilling 39-38 comeback against the Baltimore Ravens. That may give the Steelers some momentum, but it also sets them up as letdown candidates. The loss of Shazier is going to catch up with them, especially with a team that boasts a fully rested Rob Gronkowski in the lineup.

New England was caught by an unexpectedly dialed in Jay Cutler who played at Pro Bowl levels for just over three quarters of that game. They were also routinely frustrated by the lack of Gronkowski absorbing defenders, blocking in the run game and ripping off chunk yardage.

What New England prides themselves on defensively is taking away the top threat, and that’s easier said than done when you have Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell to account for. Between the two, the Pats are more likely to try and eliminate Brown from the game as much as possible because he’s the guy that rips the roof off a defence and puts them on their heels.

That’s it. If we saw anything last week, it’s that the Patriots were ill-prepared for the Dolphins and that’s probably because they were over preparing for this game. Make no mistake – the Patriots can’t afford to lose this game because it may ultimately decide who gets homefield advantage in the AFC playoffs.

Listen, this is the only game on the board where are no bad bets. You’re free to do what you want. But I think that real factor that nobody is considering is that Pittsburgh’s defence just got blown up by Joe Flacco. Don’t you think that Brady can grind the clock and skewer this defence without even blinking?

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night Best Bet
December 15, 2017

Week 15 SNF Betting Preview

Dallas Cowboys vs. Oakland Raiders

It's not often that you get a non-conference game in Week 15 that means so much to both sides as this is basically a playoff elimination game for both the Cowboys and Raiders.

The SU winner of this game is by no means a lock to make the playoffs, but the loser of this contest is basically out of the playoff picture in their respective conference as there will be too much ground to make up and not enough time left to get it done. So bettors should expect both teams to treat this contest like a playoff game as the loser is essentially out.

Dallas (-3); Total set at 46

With this game being a do-or-die for both sides, the lack of intensity you sometimes see from these non-conference games that turn into scoring fests probably doesn't happen here. That's not to say this game won't go 'over' the number because these two teams are more than capable of combining for 47+ points, but backing the high side of this total like more than 90% of bettors have already (according to VegasInsider.com) is not something I'm rushing to do.

The last thing Dallas or Oakland really wants is for this game to turn out to be one of those where whomever scores last wins because there is simply too much on the line for the future of these teams this year.

While the 'under' is probably the only way I'd look regarding the total in this game, especially with it being the overwhelming minority side and the idea that defenses are more reliable to count on in playoff/elimination games, this total of 46 points is probably set right where it should be.

I see this game landing a few points on either side of that number and I really don't want to be sweating out a late final drive where I need a stop, especially if the team trailing is down by multiple scores.

The side is much more attractive from a betting perspective to me because this is not a line that's set where it should be in my opinion as the wrong team is favored in my opinion. I don't see any reason why Dallas deserves to be laying a FG on the road in this game outside of the recency bias of them beating the Giants 30-10 last week while Oakland lost 26-15 in Kansas City.

That Cowboys game was actually 10-10 entering the fourth when a myriad of blunders by New York caused that game to spiral out of control, and while Oakland has had it's ups and downs this year, I don't believe they'll hand over the victory to Dallas with mistakes the same way the 2-11 SU Giants did.

Oakland did look bad for the first three quarters of that loss in KC, but this is a much better, more confident team at home. The Raiders have won three in a row in true home games (there was a bad 33-8 loss to New England as the “home” team in Mexico City mixed in there), and the most recent two victories came by at least a TD.

Now those wins came against the aforementioned Giants and Denver Broncos so there is a bit of a caveat there, but defensively this Raiders team held both of those foes to 17 or less in the Black Hole (another reason to possibly lean 'under' here) and that Oakland defense has the benefit of crowd noise on their side again this week.

Furthermore, the Cowboys two game-win streak (Giants, Redskins) have both been by at least 20 points – another possible reason this line is where it is – but those two NFC East rivals quit on their 2017 campaigns awhile ago. The last time Dallas faced a team that was still looking to make the playoffs this year they got blown out on their own field by the Chargers on Thanksgiving (28-6) and that was after 37-9 and 27-7 losses to Philadelphia and Atlanta respectively; two other teams looking to make a run at the Lombardi Trophy this year.

Not being able to get it done against contenders will end up being the regret the Cowboys will have (among other things)as their season ends in a few weeks as I don't even believe they win this game outright.

That's not exactly going out on a limb with a 3-point road favorite, but when it is put up or shut up time in the NFL and you're giving me 3 points on a talented but inconsistent team that's at home up against a public darling like the Cowboys, getting about 70% of the action this week, I've simply got to grab the points. Even a ML play on the Raiders in the +135 range is worth a look here too.

Best Bet: Oakland +3

[StarDust Bum]

NFL notebook: Cardinals place RB Peterson on IR
December 15, 2017

The 2017 season for Arizona Cardinals running back Adrian Peterson has reached an end because of a neck injury.

The Cardinals announced that they placed Peterson on injured reserve, hours after the 32-year-old former NFL MVP and seven-time Pro Bowler confirmed it in a statement Friday to ESPN's Josina Anderson.

"The good news is my neck injury doesn't require surgery, but I'm told by Dr. Robert Watkins that the best thing for me is just more rest than the length of this season," Peterson said in the statement. "Obviously, I'm disappointed about going on IR when my body is still able to produce, but I look forward to returning completely healthy for another season in 2018. I'm grateful for the opportunity that the Arizona Cardinals have given me to show that I can still contribute on an NFL team."

Peterson, who missed the past two games, was injured in Week 12 against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Nov. 26. Peterson is under contract for next season with his compensation worth up to $3.5 million with salary, roster bonuses and workouts bonuses.

--Carolina Panthers owner and founder Jerry Richardson faces allegations of workplace misconduct, and the team has opened an investigation into the issue, the club announced.

"The Carolina Panthers and Mr. Richardson take these allegations very seriously and are fully committed to a full investigation and taking appropriate steps to address and remediate any misconduct," team spokesman Steven Drummond said in a statement released to the media. "The entire organization is fully committed to ensuring a safe, comfortable and diverse work environment where all individuals, regardless of sex, race, color, religion, gender, or sexual identity or orientation, are treated fairly and equally. We have work to do to achieve this goal, but we are going to meet it."

The investigation of the allegations facing the 81-year-old Richardson is being led by law firm Quinn Emanuel Urquhart and Sullivan, LLP. Overseeing the probe will be minority owner and former White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles.

The team stated that because this matter is under an ongoing legal review, the Panthers cannot comment publicly on the specifics of the allegations.

--Denver Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian will miss the rest of the season with a dislocated left shoulder, coach Vance Joseph told reporters.

Siemian was placed on season-ending injured reserve. Joseph said he will not require surgery and the plan is for rest and rehabilitation.

Siemian was injured during Thursday night's 25-13 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. He was sacked in the first quarter by Colts linebacker Barkevious Mingo and landed on his shoulder.

The injured shoulder is the same one that Siemian had surgically repaired after last season. Siemian passed for 2,285 yards and 12 touchdowns this season while being intercepted 14 times.

--New York Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson is being benched because he showed up late again to a team meeting.

Wilkerson will be a healthy scratch for Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints, coach Todd Bowles announced Friday. Bowles said Wilkerson will not make the trip to New Orleans, calling it a "coach's decision."

According to multiple reports, the 28-year-old Wilkerson arrived late to Friday morning's team meeting and tardiness continues to be an issue for the former Pro Bowler. Wilkerson was benched for the first quarter of the Dec. 3 game against the Kansas City Chiefs because he showed up late for a meeting on the eve of the contest. He also was fined by the team.

--The Buffalo Bills will start quarterback Tyrod Taylor in Sunday's game against the Miami Dolphins, coach Sean McDermott announced.

Taylor missed last Sunday's 13-7 snow victory in overtime over the Indianapolis Colts due to a contusion on his knee.

Backup quarterback Nathan Peterman remains in the concussion protocol even though he was listed as a full participant in practice Thursday. Peterman left in the third quarter with a concussion and Joe Webb finished the game against the Colts.

Bills wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who has been limited in practice this week after aggravating a knee injury last Sunday, remains day-to-day. McDermott also announced the team placed offensive tackle Cordy Glenn on the season-ending injured reserve list.

--Indianapolis Colts tight end Brandon Williams was released from the hospital Thursday night after suffering a concussion during the game against the Denver Broncos.

Williams was injured on a Colts' punt in the first minute of the second quarter in the 25-13 loss. He was strapped onto a stretcher and carted off the field at Lucas Oil Stadium before being taken to an Indianapolis hospital.

The 30-year-old Williams returned to the stadium after being released from the hospital and Colts coach Chuck Pagano confirmed the tight end was back with the team's medical staff.

The Colts said Williams did not suffer an injury to his neck. He received a standing ovation from the crowd and well-wishes from his teammates before being driven off the field.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Injury Report
December 15, 2017


ARIZONA CARDINALS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS

ARIZONA CARDINALS

--Out: WR John Brown (toe), LB Gabe Martin (hamstring), RB Adrian Peterson (neck/injured reserve), G Earl Watford (ankle)

--Questionable: TE Jermaine Gresham (illness), DT Josh Mauro (ankle), DT Corey Peters (ankle)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

--Out: LB Zach Brown (illness, toe, Achilles, hip), S Montae Nicholson (concussion)

--Questionable: LB Ryan Anderson (ankle), WR Ryan Grant (ankle), WR Maurice Harris (concussion), DE Terrell McClain (toe), T Morgan Moses (ankle), C Chase Roullier (hand), T Trent Williams (knee)

BALTIMORE RAVENS at CLEVELAND BROWNS

BALTIMORE RAVENS

--Questionable: CB Maurice Canady (knee), G Jermaine Eluemunor (shoulder), C Ryan Jensen (ankle), QB Ryan Mallett (hips), WR Chris Moore (hip), LB Za'Darius Smith (shoulder), WR Mike Wallace (ankle)

CLEVELAND BROWNS

--Doubtful: CB Briean Boddy-Calhoun (knee)

--Questionable: WR Matt Hazel (hamstring), CB Darius Hillary (knee), CB Jamar Taylor (foot)

CINCINNATI BENGALS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

CINCINNATI BENGALS

--Out: LB Vontaze Burfict (concussion), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (concussion), LB Kevin Minter (hamstring/injured reserve), LB Nick Vigil (ankle)

--Doubtful: C T.J. Johnson (pectoral)

--Questionable: RB Joe Mixon (concussion), S Shawn Williams (hamstring)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

--Out: CB Mackensie Alexander (ribs), TE Blake Bell (shoulder)

--Doubtful: T Riley Reiff (ankle), TE Kyle Rudolph (ankle)

--Questionable: LB Emmanuel Lamur (foot)

GREEN BAY PACKERS at CAROLINA PANTHERS

GREEN BAY PACKERS

--Out: CB Davon House (shoulder, back)

--Questionable: CB Demetri Goodson (hamstring), LB Nick Perry (foot, shoulder), LB Jake Ryan (knee), T Jason Spriggs (hip)

CAROLINA PANTHERS

--Out: LB Shaq Thompson (foot), G Trai Turner (concussion)

--Questionable: WR Devin Funchess (shoulder), C Tyler Larsen (foot)

HOUSTON TEXANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

HOUSTON TEXANS

--Out: LB Jelani Jenkins (concussion), T Kendall Lamm (concussion), WR Braxton Miller (concussion), QB Tom Savage (concussion)

--Questionable: LB Jadeveon Clowney (knee, illness), WR DeAndre Hopkins (toe), TE MyCole Pruitt (calf)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

--Out: WR Allen Hurns (ankle), WR Larry Pinkard (concussion)

--Questionable: RB Leonard Fournette (quadriceps)

LOS ANGELES RAMS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

LOS ANGELES RAMS

--Doubtful: QB Brandon Allen (back)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

--Out: S Kam Chancellor (neck)

--Doubtful: DT Nazair Jones (ankle), LB K.J. Wright (concussion)

--Questionable: LB Bobby Wagner (hamstring)

MIAMI DOLPHINS at BUFFALO BILLS

MIAMI DOLPHINS

--Out: G Jermon Bushrod (foot)

--Doubtful: QB Matt Moore (foot), CB Cordrea Tankersley (ankle, shoulder), S Michael Thomas (knee), RB Damien Williams (shoulder, illness)

--Questionable: DE Andre Branch (knee), CB Xavien Howard (illness), DT Jordan Phillips (ankle)

BUFFALO BILLS

--Out: T Cordy Glenn (foot, ankle/injured reserve), G John Miller (ankle), QB Nathan Peterman (concussion)

--Questionable: WR Kelvin Benjamin (knee)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

--Out: DT Alan Branch (knee)

--Questionable: DE Trey Flowers (rib), CB Stephon Gilmore (ankle), LB David Harris (ankle), WR Chris Hogan (shoulder), S Brandon King (hamstring), DE Eric Lee (ankle), WR Matt Slater (hamstring), LB Kyle Van Noy (calf), T LaAdrian Waddle (ankle), DE Deatrich Wise (foot)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

--Out: TE Vance McDonald (shoulder)

--Questionable: CB Joe Haden (fibula), CB Coty Sensabaugh (shoulder), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring)

NEW YORK JETS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

NEW YORK JETS

--Out: DE Muhammad Wilkerson (not injury related)

--Questionable: RB Matt Forte (knee), G Brian Winters (abdomen, ankle)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

--Out: DE Trey Hendrickson (ankle), LB A.J. Klein (groin)

--Questionable: WR Ted Ginn (rib), G Andrus Peat (groin)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at NEW YORK GIANTS

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

--Questionable: G Stefen Wisniewski (ankle)

NEW YORK GIANTS

--Out: S Nat Berhe (hamstring)

--Doubtful: S Landon Collins (ankle)

--Questionable: CB Brandon Dixon (heel, hamstring), WR Roger Lewis (ankle), WR Travis Rudolph (hamstring)

TENNESSEE TITANS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

TENNESSEE TITANS

--Out: LB Derrick Morgan (knee)

--Questionable: S Johnathan Cyprien (back), TE Phillip Supernaw (ankle)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

--Out: T Trenton Brown (shoulder)

--Questionable: CB Greg Mabin (calf), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (knee)

DALLAS COWBOYS at OAKLAND RAIDERS (Sunday night)

DALLAS COWBOYS

--Out: LB Justin Durant (concussion), DE David Irving (concussion), CB Orlando Scandrick (back)

--Questionable: WR Brice Butler (foot), T La'el Collins (back), DT Maliek Collins (foot), TE James Hanna (knee), LB Sean Lee (hamstring, back), T Tyron Smith (back)

OAKLAND RAIDERS

--Out: WR Amari Cooper (ankle), DE Mario Edwards (ankle), S Obi Melifonwu (hip/injured reserve), TE Clive Walford (concussion, neck)

--Doubtful: CB David Amerson (foot)

--Questionable: DE Denico Autry (hand, ankle), G Jon Feliciano (concussion), S Keith McGill (knee)

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 15
December 15, 2017

The ‘under’ produced a 10-5-1 mark in Week 14 and a few of those ‘over’ tickets were very fortunate to cash. Bettors riding the low side (41) in the Seattle-Jacksonville were looking great at halftime with the Jaguars up 3-0 but then the wheels fell off the wagon. The pair ended up combining for 51 points in the second-half and we apologize to those who had the ‘under’ and congratulate the ‘over’ winners. The Browns defense should also be apologizing to ‘under’ bettors this past week as they allowed Green Bay to score 20 points in the final quarter and overtime. Those points by the Packers helped the ‘over’ (38 ½) seem like a sure winner. Through 14 weeks, the ‘over’ holds a 103-102-3 record.

Line Moves

Listed below are the largest line moves as of Friday evening based off the Week 14 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.

Green Bay at Carolina: 44 ½ to 47
Houston at Jacksonville: 40 to 38
Arizona at Washington: 44 to 41 ½
Atlanta at Tampa Bay: 47 ½ to 50

Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu wasn’t surprised by some of the moves but he’s scratching his head on a couple of the shifts.

The Green Bay-Carolina matchup is getting extra attention for a variety of reasons. Cooley explained, “For the squares betting the over, it’s all about the return of Aaron Rodgers. I can’t be certain, but I think the sharps like this over due to the fact that Green Bay’s defense has given up a ton of yards of late plus they’ve got a couple of key injuries on that side of the ball too.”

Leans to the ‘under’ in Jacksonville games have been a popular wager this season even though the team has burned the pros with late explosions yet Cooley notes that the pros continue to press this wager.

He said, “The sharps are a stubborn crew. They’ll ride a hot hand until it falls off or they’ll go down with a sinking ship. It’s a test of attrition, or insanity.”

The games that has Cooley perplexed is the old NFC East rivalry between Washington and Arizona, plus this week’s MNF matchup from Tampa Bay.

“I really don’t see the reasoning behind these movements. I thought the Zona-Wash was solid at 44 or even 43. And I somewhat expected the Falcons-Bucs total go down before it went up. At 50, feels like under might be a good play,” said Cooley.

Road Total System

What’s the system?

Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game

After watching Minnesota and Carolina go ‘over’ the number in Week 14, this angle improved to 4-2 this season and is now 43-22 (66%) the last 12 seasons. The Vikings were playing their third straight away game and while their defense has been great this season, the Panthers managed to break through.

This week, we not only have one but two matchups that fit the system.

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants
New England at Pittsburgh

Even though the Steelers are much better than the Giants, I believe Philadelphia faces a tougher spot as far as the travel factor. Back-to-back road games at the Seahawks and Rams isn’t easy and you just lost your quarterback that was having a MVP season. On paper, New England’s trip to Western Pennsylvania is much easier after playing at Buffalo and Miami, but the setback at the Dolphins this past Monday was a needed wake-up call.

The rest of the regular season won’t have any more matchups that fit the system, but we could definitely see situations in the playoffs.

NFC vs. AFC

We have four non-conference games slated in Week 15 and the ‘over’ has gone 30-24-2 (56%) this season in AFC-NFC matchups. Here’s a couple things to watch on each total come Sunday.

Cincinnati at Minnesota: The Bengals have watched their total result push the last two weeks. This is a low total (42) but the Vikings have had success against the AFC (7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS) recently and the ‘over’ has gone 5-3-2 in those games.

N.Y. Jets at New Orleans: This line on the Saints (-15 ½) seems a tad inflated but it’s based off the Jets QB situation and they’re going with former Baylor standout Bryce Petty as the starter. I dug up some numbers on the Saints with the high number and it’s crazy what they’ve done. New Orleans has won six straight (5-1 ATS) games when listed as a double-digit favorite and the ‘over’ is 6-0 in those games. And get this, they averaged 39.5 PPG in those victories.

Tennessee at San Francisco: The ‘Jimmy G’ hype is alive and the 49ers are listed as favorites for the first time this season. San Francisco is 2-0 with him as a starter but going from hunter to hunted never bodes well. The Titans defense has allowed (13.7 PPG) in their last three games and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 3-1. The 49ers enter this game on a 5-1 ‘under’ run.

Dallas at Oakland: (See Under the Lights)

Divisional Games

Another solid ‘under’ performance last week in the divisional games with the low side connecting in three of the four games. On the season, the ‘under’ sits at 40-20-1 (67%) in divisional affairs. Make a note that the opposite total result occurred in three of the games last week. For example, Baltimore and Pittsburgh played to an easy ‘over’ last Sunday while the first encounter went ‘under’ in Week 4.

Chicago at Detroit (Saturday): The Lions nipped the Bears 27-24 in Week 11 and the ‘over’ (40) almost hit at halftime. The ‘under’ had connected in the three previous meetings and the total (44) is higher for the rematch. Make a note that the Lions have been a great ‘over’ bet (5-1) at Ford Field this season. The Bears offense (16 PPG) hasn’t travelled well but it did just put up 33 points last week at Cincinnati.

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City (Saturday): The Chiefs dropped the Chargers 24-10 in Week 3 from Los Angeles and the ‘under’ (47) was never in doubt. Our friends at Intertops.eu have a ‘Best Bet’ posted on this total. Keep in mind that L.A. now owns the best ‘under’ mark (9-4) in the league and that record is attributed to its outstanding defense (17.3 PPG).

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants: Strong ‘over’ run in this series, 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. That mark includes the Eagles 27-24 win over the Giants at home in Week 3. That game had a great pace to the ‘under’ but the pair posted 44 points in the second-half, 37 coming in the final 15 minutes.

Miami at Buffalo: This is the only divisional game this week that is not a rematch with the pair slated to meet again from South Florida in Week 17. The ‘over’ has cashed in four straight in this series but the cold weather could halt that run on Sunday. Miami enters this game on a 7-1 streak to the ‘over’ while the Bills have seen their last three outcomes lean to the low side.

Houston at Jacksonville: As mentioned above, this total already got hit by the pros and it’s hard to imagine Houston scoring on Jacksonville’s top-ranked scoring defense (15.5 PPG) with its third-string QB. In the first meeting, the Jaguars earned a 29-7 road win over the Texans in Week 1. That game went ‘under’ but the ‘over’ was 4-1 in the previous five games.

Baltimore at Cleveland: The Ravens dropped the Browns 24-10 in Week 2 and the ‘under’ (39) connected. Including that effort, Baltimore has scored 20-plus in seven straight games against the Browns. The Cleveland defense (21.2 PPG) has been better at home and while I don’t try to handicap emotions, you’d like to think the team will come to play in the home finale.

L.A. Rams at Seattle: In Week 5, the Seahawks nipped the Rams 16-10 and the ‘under’ (46 ½) was an easy winner. The low side has now hit in four straight encounters between the pair and eight of the last 10. Los Angeles outgained Seattle (375-241 yards) but it turned the ball over five times. This is a huge game for the division and the Rams offense (30.5 PPG) continues to be a tough matchup for anybody, plus they’ve responded well off losses (3-0, 31.3 PPG) this season.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: (See Under the Lights)

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ continued its momentum last week with a 2-1 mark and while the edge is dwindling, the ‘over’ (25-18-1) still holds a slight lead this season and that includes this past Thursday’s low side result between the Broncos and Colts.

Over-Under Results: SNF (8-7), MNF (9-5-1), TNF (8-6)

Dallas at Oakland: Even though most bettors will likely lean Favorite-Over in the ‘chase’ game, the total isn’t an easy handicap. The Raiders have been impossible to figure out on both sides of the ball and they bring a 4-0 ‘under’ run into this week. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have put up 38 and 30 points the last two weeks and their defense (12 PPG) has been very solid as well. It looked like Oakland packed it in last week in its loss at Kansas City and knowing the Raiders end the season at the Eagles and Chargers, it makes you wonder if they show up for the final home game. Again, not an easy game to figure out but I’m betting you’ll need all 60 minutes to figure it out.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: These teams just played in Week 12 and the Falcons dropped the Buccaneers 34-20 and the ‘over’ (47) cashed. Including that result, the high side has connected in three straight. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan (317, 344, 334 yards) has lit up the Bucs during this span. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay signal caller Jameis Winston (9 TDs, 2 INTs) has had just as much success against the Falcons. In four career games versus Atlanta, the Bucs have averaged 26.3 PPG. Make a note that Winston missed the first game this season versus Atlanta due to injury. While all those numbers could have you leaning high, the ‘under’ is 5-1 in Tampa’s home games and that’s been attributed to a weak offense (17.8 PPG) and stout defense (16.7 PPG) from the Bucs.

Fearless Predictions

The Chargers defense almost cost us two wagers last week and that’s certainly a unit to watch the rest of this season. We turned out a profit ($190) and our goal of quietly reducing the overall deficit ($240) is taking shape. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: L.A. Rams-Seattle 47 ½

Best Under: Miami-Buffalo 38 ½

Best Team Total: Over 31 New Orleans

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Under 49 Philadelphia-N.Y. Giants
Over 39 N.Y. Jets-New Orleans
Under 48 ½ Baltimore-Cleveland

[StarDust Bum]

Pick Six - Week 15
December 16, 2017

Week 14 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
Overall Record: 40-44 SU, 36-45-1 ATS

Packers at Panthers (-3, 47) – 1:00 PM EST

Green Bay
Record: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS, 9-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Packers lost star quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a broken collarbone two months ago as Green Bay compiled a 3-5 mark in that span. However, Green Bay is trending up of late by knocking off Tampa Bay and Cleveland in overtime in each of the past two weeks. The Packers are currently on a solid 4-1 ATS run, while covering in three of four opportunities as a road underdog. Green Bay owns a 12-2 record in the last 14 games started and finished by Rodgers since last November, while cashing the OVER 11 times in that span.

Carolina
Record: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS, 8-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Panthers rebounded from a 10-point defeat at New Orleans to defeat Minnesota last Sunday, 31-24 to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs. Jonathan Stewart rushed for three touchdowns, while Carolina improved to 5-1 SU/ATS in the ‘dog role this season. However, Carolina has slumped to a 1-3 ATS record as a home favorite this season, including outright losses to New Orleans and Philadelphia. Carolina held off Green Bay in its previous meeting in 2015 by a 37-29 score to cash as two-point home underdogs.

Best Bet: Packers +3

Dolphins at Bills (-3, 39) – 1:00 PM EST

Miami
Record: 6-7 SU, 5-6-2 ATS, 7-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1

The Dolphins are fresh off their best performance of the season by shocking the Patriots as double-digit home ‘dogs last Monday, 27-20. Jay Cutler tossed three touchdown passes to lift Miami to its second straight victory following a five-game skid. The Dolphins haven’t faced the Bills yet this season as the two division rivals will hook up twice in the final three weeks. Miami swept Buffalo last season with both wins coming by three points each, including a 34-31 overtime triumph at New Era Field last December.

Buffalo
Record: 7-6 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, 7-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Bills continue to be the biggest roller coaster ride in the NFL after edging the Colts in a massive snowstorm last Sunday, 13-7 in overtime. LeSean McCoy carried Buffalo to its fifth home victory of the season by scoring the game-winning touchdown in OT, while compiling 156 yards on 32 carries. Since the Bills were torched for 54 points against the Chargers in Week 11, Buffalo has allowed 40 points in the past three games, resulting in three consecutive UNDERS.

Best Bet: Dolphins +3

Cardinals at Redskins (-4, 41 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Arizona
Record: 6-7 SU, 4-8-1 ATS, 8-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Cardinals crept closer to the .500 mark in spite of not reaching the end zone in last Sunday’s 12-7 home victory over the Titans. Phil Dawson booted four field goals for Arizona, while the Cardinals picked up their second win in three weeks against the top two teams in the AFC South. However, Arizona has yet to win consecutive games this season, posting an 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS record off a victory. As a road underdog this season, the Cardinals have underachieved by putting together an 0-3 SU/ATS mark.

Washington
Record: 5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS, 8-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The Redskins have several signature road wins this season against the Rams and Seahawks, while coming up short in close defeats at Kansas City and New Orleans. However, Washington has gone backwards at the wrong time by losing four of the past five games since upsetting Seattle in Week 9, including recent blowout losses to the Cowboys and Chargers. The Redskins are listed as a home favorite for only the third time this season, winning in both instances against the 49ers and Giants.

Best Bet: Redskins -4

Rams at Seahawks (-2 ½, 47 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

Los Angeles
Record: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS, 8-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 14/1

The Rams are getting their money’s worth over the last month against elite NFC competition by beating the Saints, but also falling to the Vikings and Eagles. Los Angeles still has a hold on the NFC West lead, but the Rams have to avoid the sweep to Seattle after losing at home to the Seahawks in Week 5 by three points. L.A. has yet to lose consecutive games this season, while posting an impressive 5-1 record away from the Coliseum.

Seattle
Record: 8-5 SU, 5-7-1 ATS, 8-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Seahawks return home following a 30-24 setback at Jacksonville last Sunday to end a brief a two-game winning streak. Seattle didn’t lose any ground in the division thanks to Philadelphia beating Los Angeles, but the Seahawks are currently tied with the Falcons for the final playoff spot in the NFC with a trip to Dallas next week. The Seahawks have owned the Rams over the years at CenturyLink Field by capturing 11 of the past 12 home matchups with the lone loss coming in 2015 as 11 ½-point favorites, 23-17.

Best Bet: Rams +2 ½

Patriots (-3, 53 ½) at Steelers – 4:25 PM EST

New England
Record: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS, 7-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/2

Home-field advantage is on the line as the winner of this game will likely be the top seed in the AFC playoffs. New England suffered its first regular season road loss since Week 17 in 2015 as the Patriots were tripped up by the Dolphins last Monday to end a 14-game away hot streak. The Patriots will get Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski back following his one-game suspension, while New England has captured each of the past four meetings with Pittsburgh since 2013.

Pittsburgh
Record: 11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS, 8-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1

Following four straight primetime games (all wins), the Steelers are back in action during the day as Pittsburgh tries to extend its hot streak to nine in a row. Pittsburgh has failed to cover in its past three games, in which the Steelers won by a total of seven points against Green Bay, Cincinnati, and Baltimore. The Steelers are listed as a home underdog for the first time since last October against New England in a 27-16 loss, but Ben Roethlisberger sat out due to injury.

Best Bet: Patriots -3

Titans at 49ers (-1 ½, 45) – 4:25 PM EST

Tennessee
Record: 8-5 SU, 5-7-1 ATS, 7-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

The Titans were dealt a huge blow in their AFC South championship hopes in a 12-7 defeat at Arizona last Sunday as three-point favorites. Tennessee remains out west for the second of three straight games against NFC West foes. Amazingly, the Titans are listed as an underdog for just the third time this season, losing at Miami and Pittsburgh when receiving points. Tennessee heads to San Francisco for the first time since beating the 49ers in 2009 as 4 ½-point underdogs, 34-27.

San Francisco
Record: 3-10 SU, 7-6 ATS, 8-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The 49ers look like a different team when they have a decent quarterback under center. Former Patriot Jimmy Garoppolo is 2-0 as a starter, leading San Francisco to road victories over Chicago and Houston in the underdog role. Now, the Niners are flipped to a favorite for the first time this season and are laying points for the first time since last December against the Jets, a game they lost in overtime.

Best Bet: Titans + 1 ½

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 15
December 16, 2017

NFL CHOICE TRENDS:

-- The 49ers 0-10-1 ATS (-6.18 ppg) since Dec 08, 2013 as a home favorite.

-- The Bills are 11-0 OU (18.27 ppg) since Dec 05, 2004 as a favorite of more than three points coming off a win where they allowed less than 300 total yards.

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 11-0-1 ATS (10.92 ppg) since Dec 05, 2010 at home after they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Bills are 0-11-1 ATS (-9.79 ppg) since Sep 19, 2010 coming off a home game where they did not force a turnover.

TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:

-- The Vikings are 7-0 ATS (11.57 ppg) after a road game in which Adam Thielen had at least 5 receptions.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-12 OU (-9.96 ppg) since Sep 18, 2005 as a road favorite coming off a game where they threw for at least 250 passing yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 11-0 OU (11.32 ppg) since Nov 13, 2011 coming off a win where they allowed less than 14 points.

NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 0-12 OU (-9.08 ppg) on grass after a win in which they did not hold the lead after any of the first three quarters.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Patriots are 19-0 ATS (+16.05 ppg) when they are off a loss and they are not laying more than a field goal.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- NFL ATS SYSTEM: Teams off a win as a dog that scored no more than 17 points are 229-174-14 ATS.

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 15
December 16, 2017

We're at the midway point through December which means we've got three weeks left of regular season betting on the NFL. While betting football is always on our minds, most of us also have Christmas duties getting in the way as family rolls in, travel, dinners, gift giving, the kids are out of school and shopping drama at the malls.

While all the festivities are going on in the household, let's not forget about some crucial things happening in Week 15 action before wagering.

There's all kinds of quarterback changes this week and I'll discuss the increase or drop off in price with each change. Weather doesn't look to be a concern like last week, but both Pittsburgh and Cleveland have a 20 percent chance of precipitation with temperatures around 38 degrees by kickoff. Both those cities have some important games this week. The game of the week features the New England Patriots (-3, Even) at the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Guess who the public likes?

We also have several teams in different situations. Some are still in the playoff race and "have to win" and others have had their players already set up Carribean vacations for early January as they can't wait for the season to end. Who wants it more? Who is hot right now and who is not?

And then we have the Browns once again going for a perfect season.

Sunday's game at Cleveland (0-13) against the Ravens (-7) will be the final home game for the fans to root in their beloved Browns. The Ravens (7-6) are vying for a playoff berth and "have to win" but at what point does the pressure of possibly handing the Browns their first win weigh on a team? It seems almost every week the Browns are on the verge of possibly winning and find new ways to implode. Last week it was a 21-7 home lead evaporating against the Packers, who not only tied the game and sent it into overtime, but also got the gift extra session touchdown to win by six points (27-21) and cover the spread (-3.5).

William Hill sports books reported having 85 percent of cash on the game and 78 percent of the tickets written siding with the Ravens laying the points. The Browns have covered the spread in only three games, but this should typically be a spot where the Ravens are put on upset alert. They "have to win" and the Browns are winless and desperate. But be reminded that they are all professionals and have jobs to retain next season, somewhere, and the film doesn't lie about how hard a player plays. Plus, the city of Cleveland hates the Ravens who stole their team and then went on to win two Super Bowls. There's a lot of storylines here. Another one is that sharp action around town is once again taking the Browns. Man, they've taken a beating on the Browns for the second straight season.

Speaking of the Green Bay Packers (7-6), here's a squad that should have a little extra zip in their step with quarterback Aaron Rodgers returning this week after going 3-5 behind back-up Brett Hundley. They are three-point underdogs at Carolina (9-4), with the number dropping as many books are at -3 EVEN. Watch what the South Point does here because they're the only Las Vegas book that use exclusively flat numbers and they're at 3-flat. Rodgers is the most valuable QB in the NFL because it's relative to the back-up. Right now, a rusty Rodgers is worth 7-points. The perfect form Rodgers from early in the season is worth 8.5 to 9-points. So far, the small parlay action has been on the Panthers who have won and covered five of their last six.

The other big QB change deals with the Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) who play at the hapless New York Giants (2-11). Carson Wentz is out for the season, but all is not lost because Nick Foles is a capable back-up, a former NFL starter, which is why the drop off from Wentz is only worth about 4-points. The masses who have profited greatly from Philly posting a league-best 10-3 ATS record. William Hill books have seen 68 percent of its cash on this game taking the Giants. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook was as high as -8.5 on Monday and Wednesday they moved to -7.5 EVEN. Station Casinos has seen sharp action on the Giants while their smaller action has been on the Eagles.

Buffalo's Tyrod Taylor is probable to start at home against the Miami Dolphins (6-7). Back-up signal caller Nick Peterman got knocked out last week leaving veteran Joe Webb as a possibility this week. The drop off would have been about 4.5-points. The price showing around town varies from Bills -3 -120 to -3.5. The crazy thing about the Buffalo Bills (7-6) is they control their own destiny in the playoff race. Bills in the playoffs? Hard to believe, but they're right there.

The New York Jets (5-8) will be playing at New Orleans (9-4) without starter Josh McCown, who did an amazing job considering what he had to work with. Bryce Petty gets the start at quarterback and the drop off is about 3-points which had the Westgate open the Saints -14.5 for this week. It's up to -16 now, and it looks like Saints running back Alvin Kamara (concussion) is probable and he's worth close to a full point. The large number usually scares the masses off, but the Saints have 78 percent of the cash at William Hill.

The Houston Texans (4-9) will be without starting QB Tom Savage at Jacksonville (9-4) this week meaning T.J. Yates will get the start. The drop off is worth 1.5-points. Remember, Yates won a playoff game for the Texans following the 2011 season. The Westgate opened the Jaguars -10 and got as high as -11.5 until settling at -11.

The Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) benched Andy Dalton last week at home in a 33-7 loss to the Bears and there was some discussion that back-up A.J. McCarron could get the start at Minnesota (10-3) this week. Despite Dalton looking awful most of this season, he's still 3-points better than McCarron. With Dalton expected to start, the Westgate has seen the Vikings move from -10 to -11.

Here's a look at what Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick says are his top sharp and public plays in order of risk:

Sharp
1) Bears
2) Browns
3) Texans
4) Giants

Public
1) Patriots
2) Ravens
3) Vikings
4) Eagles

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!