The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

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THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 23
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIN at DET 12:30 PM
DET +2.5
U 45.5

LAC at DAL 04:30 PM
LAC -1.5
U 46.5

NYG at WAS 08:30 PM
NYG +7.0
O 45.0

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NFL roundup: Vikings win 7th straight
November 24, 2017

DETROIT -- Case Keenum threw two touchdown passes to Kyle Rudolph and ran for another, and the Minnesota Vikings extended their winning streak to seven games with a 30-23 victory over the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

Keenum completed 21 of 30 passes for 282 yards. Latavius Murray gained 84 yards on 20 carries and scored a touchdown for Minnesota. Everson Griffen led the defense with two sacks.

Minnesota (9-2) opened up a three-game lead in the NFC North with five games remaining.

Matthew Stafford passed for 250 yards and two touchdowns and was intercepted once for the Lions (6-5), who saw their three-game winning streak snapped. Detroit's Marvin Jones caught six passes for 109 yards and two touchdowns.

Chargers 28, Cowboys 6

ARLINGTON, Texas -- Los Angeles' defense gobbled up the Dallas offense, and Philip Rivers did the rest as the Chargers rolled to a victory.

Rivers passed for 434 yards and three second-half touchdowns, including a 27-yarder to Tyrell Williams that gave the Chargers (5-6) a 16-0 lead late in the third quarter.

Dallas' offensive woes continued, as the Cowboys (5-6) produced just 247 total yards.

Redskins 20, Giants 10

LANDOVER, Md. -- Kirk Cousins fired a 14-yard, go-ahead touchdown pass to Josh Doctson with 3:31 left in the game, and Washington defeated New York.

Crowder finished with seven catches for a season-high 141 yards and a touchdown, and Samaje Perine carried 24 times for 100 yards for the Redskins (5-6). Cousins was 19 of 31 for 242 yards with two touchdowns and a pick-six.

The Giants (2-9) netted 170 total yards, only 39 in the second half. They picked up seven first downs, and Eli Manning was 13 of 27 for 113 yards and one interception.

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Best Bets - Week 12 Sides
November 23, 2017

NFL Week 12 Best Bets – Sides

Week 11's Best Bets were short on plays but easy in terms of a no doubt winner as the New York Giants stepped up as expected at home and actually won the game outright as double-digit underdogs. Giants fans are hoping New York can build on that momentum with a quick turnaround gate on Thursday night against the hated Washington Redskins, but my focus for this piece is all about Sunday's action.

Sunday's board isn't that attractive in terms of big time teams atop the standings doing battle, but it is big on divisional rivalries. From here on out we will get plenty of division rematches for teams throughout the league and it's two of these division games that have made my card this week as we should see two teams get a bit of revenge for losses earlier in the year.

Best Bet #1: Cleveland Browns +7.5

There is no denying the fact that the Browns continue to be absolutely awful and if you had them last week as home dogs of a similar number against the Jags, I send you my condolences. Cleveland was in that game and covering the number the entire way, before a drive in the final two minutes ended up in a Cleveland fumble that turned into a Jacksonville TD.

I'm not sure a bad beat gets much tougher than that, but if you are a Browns fan (my condolences again), I'm sure it's ingrained in your mind to expect bad things to happen to your team at the most inopportune times. Yet, I am not discouraged by going and backing Cleveland again this week as they look to avenge a 31-7 blowout loss to these Bengals from the beginning of October.

This is an absolute brutal spot for the Bengals – who have already shown to not be that trustworthy ATS this year for bettors – as they return home after three straight on the road, have the division revenge angle working against them, and quite possibly looking ahead to their own big division revenge game under the primetime MNF lights against Pittsburgh next week. That is not a situation I want to be laying more than a TD with almost any team in this league, let alone a Bengals club that's been an extremely frustrating team to watch (and back) all year.

Admittedly, Cleveland isn't much better and the 70% of bettors already laying the chalk with Cincinnati will point to the Bengals six-game winning streak in this rivalry (6-0 ATS too) with the Browns being held to 10 points or fewer in five of those meetings. But oddly enough, the last time Cleveland did beat Cincinnati SU, was back in early November of 2014 when Cleveland was getting a similar number (+6.5 dogs) on the road. I'm not saying Cleveland will win this game outright, although it wouldn't be overly shocking given all the negative situations for the Bengals in this spot, especially when you add in the fact that Cincinnati is just 2-6-1 ATS when coming off an outright win in their last nine tries.

In the end with Cincinnati possibly being a little flat after all the recent travel and having one eye on that Steelers game under the lights next week – the Cincinnati/Pittsburgh rivalry has gone to the next level the past few years – I don't believe we see Cincinnati be at their best to blow out Cleveland again. As long as the Browns can take care of the ball – a big IF from what we've seen from Cleveland all year – this game should stay well within this touchdown spread.

Best Bet #2: Oakland Raiders -5

Oakland is one of the few popular betting plays I've got no problem joining the masses with this week as they are back at home and looking to avenge a 16-10 loss to Denver earlier in the year. Oakland has had their ups and downs since that contest, but this Denver team has basically fallen off a cliff since that day, and now come into Week 12 with a new OC calling the shots.

Whether or not that's the spark this Broncos team needs right now remains to be seen, but the Broncos defense that's progressively gotten worse over since beating Oakland, is going to be in tough against a Raider attack that is looking for redemption after last week's pitiful performance in Mexico.

The Raiders are built to win by scoring 24+ points every week and the fact that they were only able to manage a garbage time TD against a vastly improved but still having some concerns New England defense had to rub Oakland's playmakers the wrong way all week. With Kansas City starting to fall off a cliff as well, the Raiders – even at 4-6 SU – are still in the division race and have to take care of business with their three division games they've got left. The entirety of Oakland's remaining schedule has either AFC West division opponents or NFC East non-conference games on it, and with some being tough – including three of the last four on the road – this home game against a reeling Broncos team is an opportunity Oakland can't afford to waste.

On the surface, Denver's defense may look like it improved a bit in a 20-17 loss to Cincinnati last week, but the Bengals are last in the league in terms of yards gained per game (265.6) and the Broncos still couldn't find a way to get the job done. Remember, this is a Denver defense that got obliterated by top tier offenses in Philly (51 points allowed) and New England (41 points allowed) the previous two weeks, and despite the Raiders shortcomings on that side of the ball a week ago, Oakland's attack mirrors those two teams a lot more than the Bengals. Throw in some major questions about motivation for the Broncos the rest of the way at 3-7 SU – especially in road games – and a 3-8-1 ATS run in their last 12 division games, and this spread of -5 is probably a point or two too short.

This is also a rivalry that's been dominated by the favorite, as laying points in this series has produced a 9-1-1 ATS record the last 11 times Oakland and Denver have squared off. With the Raiders being the overall better team in a situation where they've got little choice but to play their best football, I've got no problem laying those points here as I would not be surprised to see the Broncos quit once again in the 2nd half when things go south early on.

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Best Bets - Week 12 Totals
November 23, 2017

NFL Week 12 Best Bets – Totals

After sweeping the Week 10 board, Week 11's Best Bets for totals split the card with Tampa and Miami sailing 'over' the number, while the concerns I had about backing an 'over' after both the Rams and Vikings scored 30+ the week prior came to fruition. A 3-1 record through the past two weeks has added a couple of units to my bankroll as I look for more of the same in Week 12.

Week 12 may not have the most appealing games from a playoff race perspective (aside from the New Orleans/LA Rams game), but oddly enough, I do believe it's one of my favorite weeks for betting totals, so let's get right too them.

Best Bet #1: Tennessee/Indianapolis Under 46.5

This line has moved a full two to 2.5 points already after opening up in the 44 range as bettors continue to flock to this 'over' at more than a 90% clip according to VegasInsider.com's percentages. Many remember the Titans defense getting dismantled by Pittsburgh on TNF a week ago (40-17 loss), and with the first meeting between these two AFC South rivals finishing with 58 combined points (albeit a 72-yard TD run for Tennessee in final minute when he could have simply gone down), the opening number had to appear way to low in the eyes of many.

However, after Tennessee played on TNF, we've basically got both teams coming off a bye in this spot and I do believe that extra rest will help both defenses here. The Colts have had two weeks to prepare a better defensive gameplan to stop this Titans team that prefers to run the ball, and with a 1-8 O/U run going in division home games in their last nine tries, I expect the Colts defense to rise up and force long drives by the Titans to end up in FG tries.

The Titans defense should be able to do the same with their extra rest, as DC Dick LeBeau had to have spent that extra time grilling his guys after they got lit up by the Steelers. 12 of the past 16 trips to Indianapolis for the Titans organization have cashed 'under' tickets, and contrary to that first meeting this year, I believe points will be at a premium. With an overwhelming majority of bettors already going the other way and pushing this line up to it's current number, there is simply too much value on the 'under' now to pass up for this game.

Best Bet #2: Tampa Bay/Atlanta Over 48.5

This is a play that may have the same concerns as the Rams/Vikings game did a week ago with both teams coming off 30+ point performances, but Atlanta has really found something with their offense these days and they are making the most of their opportunities now. Facing a Tampa defense that has been dreadful on the road all year (30.4 points allowed/game), Matt Ryan and company should continue to keep things rolling as the Bucs offense understands they'll have to make the most of their opportunities to keep pace.

This is the first of two meetings this year between these division rivals so there is no flip-flop angle in play here like there is in the Tennessee/Indy game mentioned earlier, but with more than 70% of the action on this total already in on the low side of this number, we are in one of those favorable minority spots.

Atlanta's explosiveness on offense is what led them to the Super Bowl a year ago, but for the first eight weeks or so of this year, the Falcons simply weren't clicking. Whether it was because they had a new OC, were dropping passes at critical junctures, or a combination of that and more, the Falcons were really struggling to score points. All of that seamed to change two weeks ago when they beat up on the Cowboys, and after they put up 34 on a banged up Seahawks defense – in Seattle no less – I'm not sure how you can't like them to put up 30+ against a Bucs defense that has allowed 30 points on average away from home.
Obviously we will need some help from the Bucs offense to surpass this number, and I do believe we will get it. Yes, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is under center again, but this is his third week in a row as the starter and he already started to show some level of comfort last week against the Dolphins. Tampa is 7-0 O/U the last seven times they’ve faced a team coming off a MNF game, and their 3-0 O/U run in the second of consecutive games on the road (1-0 O/U this year) suggests points will come quite often in this contest. Five of their last seven trips to Atlanta have resulted in 'over' tickets cashing, while Atlanta is on a 9-1-1 O/U run themselves against an opponent with a losing record.

Finally, I'll leave you with this system that comes from a former colleague of mine in this industry:

When you've got a team that scored 30 or more in their last outing (Atlanta and Tampa qualify there), the total is listed between 42.5 and 49 points, and the game involves two teams with a point per game differential between +3 and -3 (Atlanta is +2.1 this year, while Tampa is -2.5), the 'over' has hit at a 75% clip (42-14 O/U) during the past 10 years.

That's quite a specific situation that lines up rather well for NFL bettors to see plenty of points in this game.

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Sunday Night Best Bet
November 23, 2017

NFL Week 12 SNF Betting Preview

Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

What looked like a phenomenal SNF primetime matchup at the beginning of the year when the schedule was released has now become a possible dud with a double-digit point spread. Green Bay losing QB Aaron Rodgers for the bulk of their campaign has really made a promising 2017 into a lost year for the Packers and getting shutout at home last week for the first time since the early 1990's suggests that the players within that locker room have come around on that realization.

Baltimore's defense completely shut down and frustrated this Packers offense, and now things don't get any easier with a primetime trip to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers.

Pittsburgh's offense finally busted out for their first 30+ point game in Week 11 with a dominant 40-17 victory over the Titans, and now with some extra rest and back on their homefield, does this game have blow out written all over it?

Pittsburgh (-14); Total set at 43

Pittsburgh has four of their remaining six games at home including this one, and at 8-2 SU already, they've got a great opportunity ahead of them to end up clinching home field advantage throughout the playoffs in the AFC. Obviously that will likely come down to their home date with the 8-2 SU New England Patriots in Week 15, but for a team that's shown a tendency to either play up or down to the level of their competition, taking care of business in a relatively easy manner against this depleted Packers team may turn out to be more of a challenge then many may think. Oh, and Pittsburgh does have a trip to see their good buddies the Cincinnati Bengals on deck in a week too.

Extra rest for the Steelers and the Packers inept offense from a week ago would suggest that this point spread deserves to be where it is, but with about a 70/30 split in tickets already written in favor of Pittsburgh, the fact that this number hasn't moved either way has to be a little concerning for some. But chances are the oddmakers don't want to move much higher than the key number of 14 because they assume that a ton of Packers action will follow, and anything lower than -14 will have even more Steelers money come in. Yet, with Pittsburgh having trouble putting away bad teams already this year, and a huge rivalry game with the hated Bengals on MNF on tap, a play on the side for me would be on the Packers or nothing, although the side is not where I'm putting my money on this game.

The total of 43 has moved up from it's opener of 41/41.5 as the majority (70%) of bettors strongly believed that opening number was much to low. A lot of that likely has to do with the Steelers offensive explosion last week and just how many weapons they've got, but I'm a little surprised to see such a majority on the high side of this total given the Packers offensive ineptitude since Hundley became the starter and now pitting him against one of the best defenses in the league.

Facing the Ravens defense and then the Steelers unit on successive weeks may help Hundley from a familiarity standpoint, but the fact remains it doesn't make the task any easier, as Pittsburgh's defense is just as nasty, if not more so.

Pittsburgh has also been a great 'under' team on the year thanks to their defense. The Steelers are 2-8 O/U on the season as they've held eight of their 10 opponents to 18 points or less, and the biggest number a Pittsburgh opponent put on them was 30 (Jacksonville) – and that was aided by two defensive TD's. From the Steelers defense's point of view that was another game of 18 points or fewer allowed, so do you really think that Hundley and company will find that much success against this unit a week after they were blanked by Baltimore?

I simply do not as though the Packers will try to move the ball and sustain drives, HC Mike McCarthy has to know that his best chance at an upset here is to run the ball efficiently and keep Roethlisberger and company off the field for as long as possible. Successful in that strategy or not, at the very least that type of gameplan burns the clock down for minimal possessions during the game – always helpful to the 'under.'

Furthermore, if this game does end up turning into the blowout it's expected to be with the Steelers laying 14 points, we will see a lot of bleeding the clock by Pittsburgh in the 2nd half. Something like a 28-13 scoreline is highly likely in a game like this and it's probably one of the scorecasts oddsmakers had in mind when they originally set this number. With the Steelers 8-22-1 O/U the week after covering a spread and 3-13 O/U after a SU win of 14+ points, chances are we see a game that turns into more of a defensive struggle than many want to believe right now.

Green Bay doesn't lose by 10+ at home often, but they are 1-4 O/U in their next game the last five times it's happened, and now that this total has been bumped up by a few clicks, I've got no problem taking the higher number on a game I was already looking at going low on with the opener.

Best Bet: Green Bay/Pittsburgh Under 43

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SNF - Packers at Steelers
November 23, 2017

The injury riddled Packers (5-5 straight up, 4-6 against the spread) limp into Heinz Field Sunday night against the Steelers (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) as 14-point underdogs, but shockingly they're only one game out of the final NFC playoff spot despite QB Aaron Rodgers missing the past five games. The Packers have gone 1-4 straight-up and against-the-spread in those games.

During the same time span, Pittsburgh has won all five of its games, covering the spread in four of them. They're also the best Under team in football thanks to an offense committed to running the ball and one of the best defenses.

As they look ahead to the next six games, beginning with what should be a win here, they know a Week 15 home game against the Patriots (8-2) will likely decide playoff home field advantage. The Patriots other five games are against weaklings like the Dolphins (twice), Bills (twice) and the Jets, which means the Steelers can't take any opponent for granted for the remainder of the season.

Sure, Pittsburgh should win game, but the great equalizer in Las Vegas is the point spread. Are the Packers so bad without Rodgers now that the Steelers roll by 15 points or more? Pittsburgh has won by 15 or more in four of its 10 games, and have covered the spread in six of 10.

If looking at the Steelers schedule so far, you'll notice this is by far the largest spread Vegas has posted on them. On the two occasions Pittsburgh was double-digit favorites, both on the road, the Steelers won 21-18 in the season opener at Cleveland and 20-17 at Indianapolis in Week 10. Both those games stayed Under as well.

SPREAD MOVEMENT

if you ever needed a better diagram to show that Aaron Rodgers means more to the point-spread than any other player, all you have t do is look at the spread differentials for this game now and what CG Technology sports books posted in May when they opened numbers for first 16 weeks. The opener here was Steelers -3. On Sunday night when CG re-opened the number it was Steelers -13.5 and on Monday it was bet to -14 where it's been steady at most books throughout town since then.

The total has moved from 41 up to 43. The best underdog money-line offered around town is the Westgate SuperBook offering the Packers at +800 and the Steelers -1,400. The lowest money-line price on the Steelers is at Station Casinos and Wynn at -1,100.

ROBERTS' RATING

I have the Steelers 8.5-points better than the Packers on a neutral field and give Heinz Field a little more than 2.5 points for home field which takes me just past 11 points. When factoring in what the public saw last, you can't them a raw number on the Steelers. For the most part they're going to lay it anyway, so add in an extra two points of juice as a popularity tax which takes us to -13.5. What the bettors saw last was the Steelers wipe out the Titans 40-14 and the Packers get shutout at home by the Ravens. That may be worth three points alone.

RECENT MEETINGS

The Steelers last played the Packers in December of 2013 at Lambeau Field. The Steelers (-1) came away with a 38-31 win which easily went Over the total of 43.5 points. The previous meeting before that was the Super Bowl following the 2010 season when the Packers (-3) won 31-25, going Over 44.5 total points. Their past three meetings have gone Over. Since 1933, when the Packers won the first meeting 47-0 (they won the first nine meetings through 1946), the two teams have met 34 times with Green Bay holding a 19-15 edge.

HUNDLEY REBOUND?

After the Packers 23-16 Week 10 win at Chicago, it looked like back-up QB Brett Hundley had finally come around feeling comfortable as the starter, but then Week 11 came around and Hundley threw three picks and no TDs in a 23-0 home loss to the Ravens. So much for the Hundley feeling comfortable. Baltimore has one of the better defenses in the league, but Pittsburgh's is better. In five games, Hundley has two TDs rushing and two TDs passing, but has seven interceptions. However, it's not like Hundley is getting the A-team with him on offense -- LB Clay Matthews (groin) is still out too. Let's not saddle the offensive woes all on Hundley. The offensive-line has four guys banged up, two of them out. RB Aaron Jones (MCL) is out and RB Ty Montgomery (ribs) is also questionable.

SUNDAY NIGHT PROPS (WESTGATE)

First Score of Game Will Be? Touchdown -150, Any Other Score +130
Total TD Passes + Interceptions by Brett Hundley: 2 OV -140
Total Completions by Brett Hundley: 19.5
Total Gross Passing yards by Ben Roethlisberger: 270.5
Total TD Passes by Ben Roethlisberger: 2 UN -150
Total Receiving Yards by Antonio Brown: 97.5
Total Combined Sacks by Both Teams: 5

NFL'S BEST INDIVIDUAL STATS

The Steelers rank only 11th in total yards-per-game (357.5), but they have both the No. 1 receiver and No. 1 rusher in the league showing that getting their best players the ball is the goal, everyone knows it, and few teams can stop it. Antonio Brown leads the league in receptions (70) and yardage (1,026) while Le'Veon Bell has an NFL-best 886 yards rushing.

STEEL CURTAIN

Pittsburgh comes in with the No. 4 ranked defense allowing 287.6 ypg, one of only five teams to allow less than 300 ypg. They also rank second in scoring defense allowing just 16.5 ppg and they're also second with 34 sacks. Surprisingly, their turnover margin has been low and because of Ben Roethlisberger's 10 interceptions, their turnover margin is only +3. Green Bay's is +2 and they have the same amount of takeaways (16) as Pittsburgh. Jacksonville leads the NFL with a +11 turnover margin followed by Philadelphia at +10. Jacksonville also leads NFL with 40 sacks. The direct result of the Steelers defense in regards to betting has been a boost in its team rating and its total rating falling. The Steelers have an NFL-best 8-2 Under record in their 10 games.

TRENDS

Green Bay Over is 7-1 in past eight road games.
Green Bay Over is 7-2 in last nine games as an underdog.

Pittsburgh is 5-12 ATS in last 17 games in Week 12.
Pittsburgh Under is 20-8 in last 28 as a favorite.

NEXT WEEK'S SPREADS

The Westgate posted its Week 13 spreads on Tuesday and posted the Steelers as 7-point road favorites at Cincinnati, a number that will shoot up dramatically if the Bengals lose at home to desperate Cleveland Sunday afternoon. I can't remember the last time Tampa Bay was favored at Green Bay, but they are here if that tells you about how far the Packers rating has dropped without Aaron Rodgers to be a home underdog against Tampa Bay and its back-up QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.

DIVISION ODDS

NFC NORTH: Vikings 1/5, Lions 11/4, Packers 50/1, Bears 1,000/1
AFC NORTH: Off the board due the Steelers runaway. Pittsburgh was the 5/8 favorite when odds were first opened at the Westgate in May. The Bengals were 7/2 followed by The Ravens (11/4) and Browns (100/1).

SUPER BOWL ODDS

The Westgate has the AFC -2 with a total set at 52.5 in the Super Bowl scheduled for Feb. 4 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. The weight of the number comes from the top two favorites, New England (9/4) and Pittsburgh (7/2). The NFC's top candidate is Philadelphia at 4-to-1.

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Total Talk - Week 12
November 25, 2017

There was some nice back-and-forth action at the betting counter last week and the total results ended in a stalemate (7-7). We watched nine teams post 30-plus points on the scoreboard, which included a 54-point effort from the Chargers. At the same time, Baltimore’s defense posted its third shutout of the season and it became the fifth team in the last 30 NFL seasons to do so. I’m not sure that this club can do so, but three of the previous four teams to accomplish that feat wound up winning the Super Bowl. Through 11 weeks, the ‘over’ holds an 82-77-1 record.

Line Moves

The folks at BookMaker.eu did a nice job with their numbers this week and only the two matchups received much of an adjustment. Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 12 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.

Seattle at San Francisco: 43 to 45 ½
Green Bay at Pittsburgh: 41 ½ to 43 ½

Divisional Games

Sunday’s 12 game card will be highlighted with six divisional matchups and that’s where our focus will be this week. Make a note that four of the contests will be rematches and the ‘under’ has gone 30-15 (67%) in divisional matchups this season which includes the two results (1-1) from the holiday games this past Thursday.

Cleveland at Cincinnati: The Bengals dropped the Browns 31-7 on the road in Week 4 and the ‘under’ (41 ½) connected. Including that result, the ‘under’ has cashed in six of the last seven in this series. This week’s total is lower (38) and I’d be hesitant to lean low again. Cleveland’s defense has been very solid at home but its road numbers (31.8 PPG) are the second worst in the league.

Miami at New England: The ‘over’ cashed in both games last season as New England posted 35 and 31 points. Based on what we’ve seen from Miami’s defense lately, I’d expect the Patriots to get in that neighborhood again. However, the Patriots scoring defense (12.5 PPG) has been the best unit over the last six weeks and that effort has led to a 5-1 ‘under’ run. Miami has allowed 31.6 PPG over the same span and they bring a 5-1 ‘over’ mark into this contest.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: These teams split a pair of shootouts (43-28, 31-24) last season and this week’s number (48) is expecting more points come Sunday. After being held to less than 200 yards in three straight weeks, Tampa Bay put up 321 yards in its 30-20 win last week at Miami but it was also helped out with five turnovers. Atlanta hasn’t been as explosive this season but it's looked better (27, 34 points) in its last two games. I believe the Falcons will continue to have success offensively but Atlanta’s defense (18.2 PPG, 292.5 YPG) has been very stout at home this season.

Tennessee at Indianapolis: The Titans defeated the Colts 36-22 on a Monday Night Football matchup in Week 6 and this outcome was tad misleading as Tennessee outscored Indy 21-3 in the fourth quarter. The ‘over’ (46 ½) connected and has now hit in four of the last five in this series. Indy watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 in its first eight but the ‘under’ has gone 2-0 the last two weeks and its defense (14, 20 points) has played much better. Tennessee has watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 this season and that includes three straight tickets to the high side.

Seattle at San Francisco: In Week 2, the Seahawks survived a scare from the 49ers and squeaked out a 12-9 home win and the ‘under’ (41) was never in doubt. That results snapped a three-game run to the ‘over’ in this series. The line has inched up for this meeting and after watching Seattle drop a 34-31 home decision to Atlanta last Monday, I guess the belief is that the ‘Hawks defense can’t overcome all the injuries. San Francisco is coming off a 31-21 home win on Nov. 12 and it’s playing this game off its ‘bye’ week. I mention that because the 49ers have watched the ‘over’ go 2-0 the last two seasons off rest and they averaged 26 PPG. Be aware that Seattle is 3-0 off a loss this season and the defense has held opponents to 9, 18 and 17 points.

Denver at Oakland: Betting the side or total on this matchup doesn’t seem like a good idea, especially with all the reports coming out of Denver this week. VI expert Micah Roberts made a great point in his weekly piece about the line movement on this matchup or lack thereof. Denver defeated Oakland 16-10 at home in Week 4 and the Raiders didn’t have QB Derek Carr in the lineup. The ‘under’ (44) hit and is on a 4-1 run in this series. The Broncos will be starting their third quarterback of the season in Paxton Lynch. Denver’s offense (18.3 PPG) has been a mess this season but the Oakland defense (24.7 PPG) is far from great and get this, that unit still hasn’t recorded an interception this season. Knowing I just mentioned that, I would search for Lynch INT props and check the ‘Yes’ box.

Under the Lights

Including this past Thursday’s ‘under’ result between the Giants and Redskins on Thanksgiving, the ‘over’ holds a strong 22-13 (63%) mark in primetime games this season.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh: We finally watched the Steelers explode in Week 10 with a 40-17 home win over Tennessee. It was just the second time this season that the Pittsburgh-Over parlay cashed. Bettors will likely ride that angle again here despite knowing the Steelers are the best ‘under’ team (8-2) in the NFL. The Packers are 3-2 to the ‘under’ since QB Brett Hundley stepped onto the field and it’s hard to imagine him doing much against an underrated Pittsburgh defense (16.5 PPG, 287.6 YPG). This will be the third time this season that the Steelers are laying double digits. In each of the first two instances, they won by three points and the ‘under’ connected in both.

Houston at Baltimore: The ‘over’ has gone 9-3 on MNF this season and that includes a run of six straight to the high side, plus the favorite has cashed the last six weeks as well. The books have been blasted in these contests and I’m guessing most bettors will press the Ravens-Over combo this week. Baltimore’s defense (17.1 PPG, 306 YPG) is ranked in the top five in both scoring and total defense. Houston doesn’t present much of an attack and it hasn’t won two straight games all season. In fact, the Texans are 0-3 this season off victories and the defense has surrendered 36, 42 and 41 points. Despite the defensive accolades, the Ravens are 6-4 to the ‘over’ this season.

Fearless Predictions

After earning a split last week ($20), I managed to have a great holiday ($400) and that cut into the hefty deficit ($620) that I’ve built through the first 11 weeks. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Cleveland-Cincinnati 38

Best Under: Tennessee-Indianapolis 45 ½

Best Team Total: Under Chicago 15

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over Tampa Bay-Atlanta 39
Under 62 ½ New Orleans-L.A. Rams
Under 52 Green Bay-Pittsburgh

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 12
November 24, 2017

Most sports books did well between Thursday's three NFL games, the college football game at Starkville and several other college basketball games scattered throughout Thanksgiving Day.

Sunday's Week 12 action doesn't have the usual leftover liability from Thursday's games, so as long as they grind out Friday and Saturday's college football action, risk shouldn't be overboard. But Sunday's games are expecting its own heavily weighted risk simply with the three biggest favorites.

"It's going to be the usual suspects for again this week," Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay said Friday afternoon. "The Eagles and Patriots stand out the most and we got a larger than normal wager on the Chiefs (from a house player laying -9.5 vs Bills), but the worst combination of any three teams covering would be the Eagles, Patriots and Steelers, and things get compounded even more if all three of those sides go Over the total as well."

Those three teams are also who Kornegay has posted as the Westgate's top-three favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Bettors believe what they saw last as gospel and Pittsburgh (8-2) left a lasting impression for the entire nation to witness in a 40-14 win over the Titans in the Week 11 Thursday night matchup. Despite that result going 'over' the total, Pittsburgh is still the best 'under' team in the NFL at 8-2 and come in as 14-point home favorites over the lowly regraded Brett Hundley-led Packers. Green Bay (5-5) also left a lasting impression with bettors in their 23-0 home loss to the Ravens last week. Guess who the public is siding with here? Being a Sunday night game, the risk as the last game to cash on the day is going be massive regardless whether the Eagles or Patriots cover.

The Patriots (8-2) are 16.5-point home favorites against the Dolphins in a series where the home team has covered nine of the past 10.

"I'm so impressed with the Patriots, not just for rebounding defensively so well this year, but every year how they operate as an organization," said Kornegay. "They're so consistent and right now they're playing their best ball."

New England was giving up 32 points per game in its first four games, going 2-2, but now they're on a 6-0 run (5-1 against the spread) while allowing just 12.5 PPG and have stayed 'under' in five of them. Kornegay has the Patriots as the 9/4 favorite (Bet $100 to win $225) to win the Super Bowl.

Philadelphia is 4/1 to win the Super Bowl, the NFC's top choice and third choice overall behind the Steelers (7/2). The Eagles have been the bettors' favorite team this season thanks to covering eight of 10 games, including their last seven. They have the NFL's best record at 9-1, they've won eight straight and the Bears (3-7) come to town getting +13.5 with a rookie quarterback in Mitch Trubisky. Prior to the Eagles Week 11 Sunday night game with the Cowboys, this game was Eagles -11. In May, CG Technology sports books had the Eagles -6 when they released spreads for Week 1-16.

Despite the one-sided action on parlay cards, teasers and big money-line parlays, the Eagles haven't moved off -13.5 all week. The best money-line on the Bears is at the Westgate at -1,100/+700 and the best Eagles price is at MGM Resorts books at -900/+600.

As of Friday, the best bet shop in Las Vegas to throw down a big money-line parlays featuring the three big favorites is at John Avello's Wynn book. For a $10,000, the three-teamer laying no points pays $2,878 plus the initial $10,000 wager returned. The Eagles (-900) multiplied by the Patriots (-1,600) and then multiplied by the Steelers (-1,100) is the angle several bettors will take. It's easy money in their mind.

Of course, the outcomes from the other nine games will also matter and be contributing factors to how the sports books fare on Sunday. The Saints (8-2) have been very popular with bettors during their eight-game win streak (7-1 ATS), but the Rams (7-3) have a following at the betting windows as well and most shops in town have them as 2.5-point home favorites.

"The Saints are a popular team lately, but the Rams have garnered plenty of support all season to keep the risk down," Kornegay said.

Another team bettors are warming up to lately has been the Falcons (6-4) who opened as 8.5-point home favorites against the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Buccaneers (4-6), who have won the past two weeks after losing five straight. Bettors have drove this number up to -9.5 at most books while CG Tech and Stratosphere are both at -10. The Falcons have beat Seattle and Dallas the past two weeks.

The strangest signals to find some kind of meaning out of what has been going on this week with the Broncos (3-7). They visit Oakland (4-6) on Sunday and we haven't seen the spread move off of Raiders -5 all week. Third-string QB Paxton Lynch gets the start, but between fights in practice and a player late to a meeting being cut, it's been a busy week. A shake-up is happening. Does Denver starting Lynch mean John Elway and the Broncos executives are waving the white flag for NFL draft position?

"No, Denver isn't tanking it," said Kornegay, who is a long time Broncos fan. "They should have been starting the season with Lynch just to see what he has. Last season they only gave him a game-and-a-half. That's it! That's not enough of a sample size to determine if he's got what it takes to lead the team.

"I look at this in terms to how we all felt Jared Goff was a bust last season, but when given an opportunity he eventually found his confidence and support with a new coach. That could be Lynch, too. Look, we already know Trevor Siemian and Brock Osweiler are back-ups. We've seen their upside, but the negatives outweigh the positive. We don't know about Lynch, so let's give him a shot to make a case that he deserves to be the starter."

Bettors want to back the Raiders and bet against the Broncos, who attempt to avoid their first seven-game losing streak since 1967, but there are trust issues that have many leaving the game alone.

"If the Raiders had won last week, bettors would have been all over them this week against Denver, but there's some skepticism there," Kornegay said.

And of course we have the public going against Cleveland (0-10) because betting against the Browns has cashed in eight of 10 games. The Bengals (4-6) wiped them out in Week 4, 31-7, but some larger money just can't seem to quit the perceived value on the Browns. The Westgate and Wynn both dropped the Bengals down to -8. Caesars Palace dropped from a high of -9 on Monday down to -8 on Thursday.

The Browns have yet to cover in four road games, and make that five if counting the London game. Since their last cover in Week 7, when the Titans (-5.5) won 12-9 at Cleveland, the Browns have found new ways to blow covers.

The following week in London they led the Vikings 13-12 at the half only to lose 33-16 and also fail to cover +11.5. The next week the Browns were winning 24-17 late in the third quarter at Detroit just before the Lions reeled off 21 straight points to win 38-24 and cover -10.5.

Last week the Browns were getting +6.5 at home and gave the cover away despite the Jags being up 13-7 with just over a minute remaining. The Browns had the ball with a chance to win their first game, but DeShone Kizer would fumble it in the end zone and the Jags win 19-7, and also get the cover. That's three straight games the sharps backing the Browns got slapped around near the end of the game in rude fashion. The Bengals have won and covered the past six meetings.

Good luck to all this week.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 12
November 25, 2017


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Colts are 10-0 ATS (14.6 ppg) since Dec 04, 2011 as a dog of more than three points coming off a loss where they scored fewer points than expected.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Titans are 0-10 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since Oct 20, 2013 off a game as a dog of at least five points where they allowed at least 22 first downs.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since Oct 30, 2016 coming off a game where Larry Fitzgerald had at least nine receptions.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Teams that have at least nine rushing touchdowns over their past five games are 102-135-3 ATS. Active against New Orleans.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Broncos are 11-0 OU (13.9 ppg) since Nov 06, 2008 as a road dog of more than three points after a loss where they scored less points than expected.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Falcons are 0-10 OU (-9.8 ppg) since Nov 22, 1998 as a favorite off a game as a dog where they scored at least 30 points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Jaguars are 0-12 ATS (-15.5 ppg) when they are off a double-digit win and they are visiting vs a team with a worse record.

[StarDust Bum]

Pick Six - Week 12
November 25, 2017

Week 11 Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS
Overall Record: 34-32 SU, 30-35-1 ATS

Bears at Eagles (-14, 44) – 1:00 PM EST

Chicago
Record: 3-7 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 500/1

The Bears look to put an end to a three-game losing streak after blowing a 17-7 lead in last Sunday’s 27-24 home loss to the Lions. In five of six starts since taking over at quarterback, rookie Mitchell Trubisky has thrown for 200 yards or less, but has been intercepted only once in the past five games. Chicago has been an awful road team since 2016 by compiling a 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS record in its previous 12 contests away from Soldier Field, including a 1-3 SU/ATS mark this season.

Philadelphia
Record: 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS, 6-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/2

The Eagles continue to roll after routing the Cowboys last Sunday night, 37-9 to easily cash as six-point road favorites. Philadelphia has covered in seven straight games, while topping the 33-point mark in each of its past four home contests. Carson Wentz led the Eagles to a 29-14 triumph at Soldier Field when these teams met last season in Week 2 as three-point underdogs. The Eagles are 3-0 SU/ATS in their last three opportunities as a double-digit home favorites dating back to the start of 2014.

Best Bet: Eagles -14

Bills at Chiefs (-9 ½, 46) – 1:00 PM EST

Buffalo
Record: 5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 6-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1

Things have spiraled out of control for the Bills, who three weeks ago sat at 5-2 and three losses later are at .500. The Nathan Peterman experiment was a quick one as the Bills’ rookie quarterback was intercepted five times in the opening half of a 54-24 beatdown by the Chargers last Sunday. Peterman is headed back to the bench as Tyrod Taylor will return to the starting role as Buffalo tries to improve on a 1-4 SU/ATS road mark. The Bills have been shredded during this three-game skid by allowing 34, 47, and 54 points, as Buffalo never yielded more than 27 points in a game in its first seven contests.

Kansas City
Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The 5-0 start for the Chiefs has faded fast as Kansas City has dropped four of five since that red-hot start. The latest defeat came to the dreadful Giants last Sunday in overtime, 12-9 as 10-point road favorites, as three losses during this span came away from Arrowhead Stadium. Returning home may be the cure to Kansas City’s recent ills, as the Chiefs have compiled a 3-1 SU/ATS record at Arrowhead, while four of their next five games are at home against opponents currently at .500 or below.

Best Bet: Chiefs -9 ½

Buccaneers at Falcons (-9 ½, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Tampa Bay
Record: 4-6 SU, 3-6-1 ATS, 5-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The Buccaneers finally broke through on the road last week for their first away victory of the season at Miami, 30-20 as one-point favorites. Tampa Bay improved to 2-0 SU/ATS since Ryan Fitzpatrick took over at quarterback for the injured Jameis Winston. The Bucs moved to 4-1 to the OVER away from Raymond James Stadium, while Tampa Bay held its first opponent to below 30 points on the road this season in last week’s win. Even though this is Tampa Bay’s first appearance at Mercedes Benz Stadium, the Bucs have won in their last two visits to Atlanta, including a 24-21 triumph last season.

Atlanta
Record: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

One season after nearly winning the Super Bowl, the Falcons find themselves in third place of the NFC South with six games remaining. Granted, Atlanta is right in the mix for a Wild Card position, but the Falcons need to keep up their current momentum following crucial conference wins over the Cowboys and Seahawks. Atlanta traveled cross-country to knock off Seattle last Monday night, 34-31 to pick up its fourth road victory of the season. Now, the Falcons look to move above .500 at home as Atlanta has finished UNDER the total in its last three games at Mercedes Benz Stadium.

Best Bet: Buccaneers +9 ½

Panthers (-5 ½, 40) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST

Carolina
Record: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Panthers look to stay hot as they return from the bye week seeking their fourth consecutive win. Carolina ran all over Miami in Week 10 for 294 yards in a 45-21 blowout as eight-point favorites. The Panthers seek the four-game sweep of the AFC East with a victory over the Jets, but Carolina has stumbled to a 2-4 ATS record in the role of a favorite this season. Carolina is making its third visit to New Jersey to face the Jets since entering the league as the Panthers are 0-2 SU/ATS in those previous matchups.

New York
Record: 4-6 SU, 6-3-1 ATS, 5-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1

Since putting together a surprising 3-2 start, the Jets have gone backwards recently by losing four of five games. New York has covered in all five contests at Met Life Stadium this season, while holding its own at home by winning three of those games. The Jets had their three-game OVER streak snapped in a 15-10 loss to the Buccaneers two weeks ago, while New York tries to improve on a 1-5 record in its past six games against NFC opponents.

Best Bet: Jets +5 ½

Saints at Rams (-2, 53 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

New Orleans
Record: 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS, 6-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/1

The Saints continue to roll following an 0-2 start by racking up their eighth straight victory last Sunday in a comeback triumph over the Redskins in overtime, 34-31. New Orleans failed to cover as 9 ½-point favorites, while allowing nearly as many points to Washington (31) than it had to its previous three opponents (32). The ATS loss was the first for New Orleans during this eight-game winning streak, while the Saints have outgained each of their eight opponents during this stretch.

Los Angeles
Record: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Rams dropped an important showdown at Minnesota last Sunday, 24-7 as the Vikings outscored Los Angeles in the fourth quarter, 17-0. Los Angeles was limited to its lowest point total of the season, while suffering its first road defeat of the season. The Rams have split four games at the Coliseum this season (the Arizona shutout came in London), as both victories came against the Colts and Texans, while losing to the Redskins and Seahawks. Last season, the Rams were blasted by the Saints at the Superdome, 49-21 as eight-point underdogs as quarterback Jared Goff threw three touchdown passes in the loss.

Best Bet: Saints +2

Jaguars (-5 ½, 38) at Cardinals – 4:25 PM EST

Jacksonville
Record: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The AFC South title is Jacksonville’s to lose at this point as the Jaguars face only two teams over the final six weeks with a winning record (Seattle and Tennessee). The Jaguars are riding a four-game winning streak, while their impressive defense has yielded 31 points during this stretch. Jacksonville has taken care of its business on the road by going 4-1 away from north Florida with its only loss interestingly enough coming to the Jets in overtime.

Arizona
Record: 4-6 SU, 2-7-1 ATS, 7-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1

The Cardinals’ offense has struggled all season long and took a bigger hit when veteran quarterback Carson Palmer was lost for the season with a broken left arm. Arizona tries to end a two-game skid after falling apart late in a 31-21 defeat at Houston last week. The Cardinals are hosting the Jaguars for the first time since 2005, while Arizona has captured the previous two meetings in Jacksonville in 2009 and 2013.

Best Bet: Jaguars -5 ½

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 12
November 25, 2017

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8

Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11


Week 12

1) Carolina -4.5 (967)
2) New Orleans +2.5 (696)
3) Tennessee -3 (654)
4) L.A. Rams -2.5 (640)
5) Jacksonville -5.5 (609)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 12 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Minnesota (-3) 395 Detroit (+3) 532
L.A. Chargers (-2.5) 425 Dallas (+2.5) 426
N.Y. Giants (+7.5) 291 Washington (-7.5) 216
Cleveland (+8) 346 Cincinnati (-8) 362
Chicago (+13.5) 364 Philadelphia (-13.5) 541
Miami (+16.5) 443 New England (-16.5) 266
Buffalo (+9.5) 568 Kansas City (-9.5) 230
Tampa Bay (+9.5) 373 Atlanta (-9.5) 339
Carolina (-4.5) 967 N.Y. Jets (+4.5) 322
Tennessee (-3) 654 Indianapolis (+3) 392
Seattle (-6.5) 436 San Francisco (+6.5) 371
New Orleans (+2.5) 696 L.A. Rams (-2.5) 640
Jacksonville (-5.5) 609 Arizona (+5.5) 371
Denver (+5) 273 Oakland (-5) 404
Green Bay (+14) 199 Pittsburgh (-14) 331
Houston (+7) 182 Baltimore (-7) 456

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 0-5 0-5 0%
2 3-2 3-7 30%
3 2-3 5-10 33%
4 4-1 9-11 45%
5 1-4 10-15 40%
6 2-3 12-18 40%
7 0-5 12-23 34%
8 2-3 14-26 35%
9 3-2 17-28 38%
10 1-4 18-32 36%
11 4-1 22-33 40%
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

[StarDust Bum]

NFL notebook: Former Bears DE Thierry dies
November 25, 2017

Former Chicago Bears defensive end John Thierry died, the team announced Saturday. Thierry was 46.

"The Chicago Bears offer their deepest condolences on the passing of former linebacker John Thierry," the team said in a statement. "Our thoughts and prayers go out to John and his family."

The Bears did not announce the cause of death. Former Chicago offensive lineman Marcus Spears said in an Instagram post Thierry suffered a heart attack on Friday.

Thierry was the 11th overall pick out of Alcorn State by the Bears in 1994. He spent his first five seasons with Chicago and also played for the Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons during a nine-year career.

--The San Francisco 49ers activated defensive lineman Tank Carradine from the injured reserve list ahead of Sunday's game against the Seattle Seahawks.

To make room on the roster, the team waived linebacker Ray-Ray Armstrong.

The 6-foot-4, 270-pound Carradine was placed on injured reserve on Sept. 25 after appearing in each of the team's first three games this season (two starts) where he registered seven tackles and one sack.

The 6-3, 220-pound Armstrong appeared in each of the team's 10 games this season (five starts) and registered 53 tackles.

--The Denver Broncos promoted nose tackle Kyle Peko to the active roster from the practice squad.

Peko, 24, will fill a spot opened Thursday when the Broncos waived cornerback Lorenzo Doss.

The 6-foot-1, 305-pound Peko is a second-year player out of Oregon State University who has appeared in two games for the Broncos in addition to competing on the team's practice squad during the last two seasons. He was on Denver's active roster for four weeks this season, playing on defense and special teams in the win against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2.

--The Indianapolis Colts promoted tight end Jason Vander Laan to the 53-man roster from the practice squad and waived offensive guard Isaiah Williams.

The 6-foot-4, 244-pound Vander Laan was signed to the Colts' practice squad on Nov. 3. He participated in the New York Jets' 2017 offseason program and training camp before being waived during final cuts on Sept. 3.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 12 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Buffalo Bills, +9.5 (568)

5) Jacksonville Jaguars+2.5 (609)

4) Los Angeles Rams, -2.5 (640)

3) Tennessee Titans, -3 (654)

2) New Orleans Saints, +2.5 (696)

1) Carolina Panthers -4.5 (967)

Season record of top 6 picks: 27-39

[StarDust Bum]

Essential Week 12 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

The Broncos are trotting out their third different starting quarterback this season with 2016 first round draft pick Paxton Miller slated to start on Sunday against the Oakland Raiders.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (+3.5, 46)

Titans leading receiver Rishard Matthews missed practice on Friday with a sore hamstring and will be a game-time decision on Sunday. Matthews leads the team with 626 receiving yards and three TD catches. He had five catches for 113 yards and a touchdown last week against the Steelers.

LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as 4.5-point road favorites but have been bet down to as low as -3. The total moved as high as two points above the opening number of 44 and seems to be settling at 45.5.

TRENDS:

*The Titans are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games.
*The over is 10-2 in the Titans’ last 12 games against AFC South opponents.
*Indy is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against Tennessee.

Carolina Panthers at New York Jets (+5.5, 40)

The Panthers welcome back Pro Bowl tight end Greg Olsen who’s been out since Week 2 with a broken bone in his foot. That’s the good news. The bad news is the club’s top two centers (Ryan Kalil and Tyler Larsen) are both listed as questionable to play against the Jets.

Kalil, a former Pro Bowl player, likely won’t play because of a lingering neck injury. Head coach Ron Rivera sounded more optimistic about the chances of Larsen playing.

LINE HISTORY: The books installed Carolina as a 4.5-point road fave against the Jets and the spread has moved up a point to 5.5. The total opened at 39.5 and most shops are dealing 40 or 40.5.

TRENDS:

*The Jets are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.
*The over is 4-0 in the Panthers’ last four games coming off a bye week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-10, 48.5)

The Falcons’ offense didn’t have an extraordinary game last week against the Seahawks. Seattle held them to 284 yards but the Dirty Birds were efficient in the red zone. Defending league MVP Matt Ryan has completed eight of his last 12 pass attempts for 60 yards with five TDs and no picks in the red zone over the last three games.

Star receiver Julio Jones has tortured Tampa Bay over the years. Jones has six career, 100-yard receiving games and eight career touchdown grabs against the Bucs.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 10-point home faves and that’s where we stand heading into the weekend. The total opened at 48 and it’s crept a half point up at a few locations.

TRENDS:

*The Bucs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against divisional foes.
*The over is 12-3 in the Falcons’ last 15 home games.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-14, 44)

The Eagles became the 44th team since 1985 to win seven straight games against the spread. Only 19 of the previous 43 covered in their next game. This is also the biggest spread the Eagles have seen all season although they did cover against the Niners as 13-point chalk.

LINE HISTORY: Plenty of shops are dealing just below the two touchdown spread as we head into the weekend. The total is jumping between 43.5 and 44.5.

TRENDS:

*The Bears are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with winning records.
*The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 46.5)

The Chiefs signed 32-year-old cornerback Darrelle Revis this week in hopes of improving the league’s 28th-ranked passing defense. Only the Indianapolis Colts give up more yards per completion than the Chiefs at 12.9. Revis is expected to start opposite defensive back Marcus Peters. KC has paired Peters with a number of corners with little success this season.

Revis was a free agent for a good reason. He played poorly last year for the Jets – something the seven-time Pro Bowl chalks up to being in poor shape. Revis is playing weight of 205 during his prime years, but it’s yet to be determined if he has the speed to keep up with young receivers.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Chiefs favored by 9.5-points and we’re now looking at a 10-point spread. The total opened around 45 and many shops are dealing 46.5 as we enter the weekend.

TRENDS:

*The Bills are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games.
*The over is 5-0 in the Bills’ last five games.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-16.5, 47.5)

That might seem like a lot of points to give for an NFL game, but don’t forget giving two touchdowns or more on the spread is nothing new for Tom Brady. The Pats are 12-8 ATS when favored by 14 or more points since the 2007 season – and an even better 11-5 ATS when giving 14.5 or more points. One of those ATS loses came in Week 1 of the 2008 campaign when Tom Brady’s was injured early and replaced by Matt Cassel.

Matt Moore will be starting at quarterback for the Dolphins. Miami was blown out 40-0 against Baltimore in the one game Moore started for the club this season.

LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened as 17-point chalk but have come down a half point. The total is holding steady at 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games between these two sides.
*The over is 5-0 in the Dolphins’ last five games.
*The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams with losing records.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-8, 38)

The Bengals offense gains the fewest yards per rush attempt at 3.0 and the Browns defense allows the fewest yards per attempt at 3.1. Expect to see a lot of Andy Dalton passing in this game.

Bengals beat reporter Jay Morrison provided a great stat on Twitter: If the Browns hold the Bengals to 60 or fewer yards Cincy will become the first team since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970 to go five games without gaining more than 60 yards on the ground in a contest.

LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened up with the Bengals giving 9 points but most locations are now dealing Browns +8. There hasn’t been any movement on the total as we head into the weekend.

TRENDS:

*The Browns are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games against divisional opponents.
*The Bengals are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with losing records.
*The under is 13-5 in the Bengals’ last 18 games overall.
*Cincy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against Cleveland.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5, 45.5)

The Seahawks secondary is running out of healthy bodies. Already down All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman, the unit will also be without safety Kam Chancellor and cornerback Shaquill Griffin against the 49ers.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened this spread with the Seahawks giving seven points but the line has come down a half point. The total has moved up three points from 42 to 45.

TRENDS:

*The Seahawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games.
*The Niners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against NFC West opposition.
*Seattle is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games against the Niners.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-4.5, 43)

The Broncos have a new quarterback under center and a new offensive coordinator calling the plays on the sidelines. The team had enough – like the rest of the viewing public – of Brock Osweiler and decided to hand the ball to Paxton Lynch.

Lynch becomes the third different starting quarterback for the Broncos this season after Trevor Siemian won the job from Lynch in training camp. Lynch is the Broncos’ first round pick from the 2016 NFL Draft.

Denver fired former OC Mike McCoy and appointed Bill Musgrave as his replacement. Musgrave was the offensive coordinator in Minnesota during the peak Adrian Peterson years but his services were not retained when Mike Zimmer took over. Musgrave bounced around and eventually landed as Oakland’s OC but was fired in January 2017 after he held the job for two years.

LINE HISTORY: The spread is bounced between 4.5 and 5.5. The total is holding steady at 43 and 43.5.

TRENDS:

*The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
*The Raiders are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games.
*The Broncos are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Raiders.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5, 38)

Future Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey says he will not play on Sunday because of a hand injury but the Jags are still listing their best DB as questionable.

Jacksonville’s pass rush should be able to cover for Ramsey’s absence. The Jags have a league- high 40 sacks on the season after taking down Cleveland quarterback DeShone Kizer five times last weekend. Four of those five sacks came with just a four-man pass rush.

LINE HISTORY: The Jags opened as 4-point favorites and the line now sits at 5.5 at many locations. The total opened at 38 and there are some books now dealing 37.5.

TRENDS:

*The Jags are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
*The under is 4-0 in the Jags’ last four games.
*The under is 13-3 in Arizona’s last 16 home games.

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-2, 54)

The Saints go into their showdown with the NFC West-leading Rams without their top two cornerbacks. Rookie Marshon Lattimore (ankle) and second-year starter Ken Crawley (abdomen) have both been ruled out for Sunday’s game.

The Rams own the ninth-best passing attack with an average of 255 yards gained in the air per game.

LINE HISTORY: Just about all books opened with the Rams giving 2.5 points but the line dropped a half point in the middle part of the week. The total is hanging between 54 and 53.5.

TRENDS:

*The Saints are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
*The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The under is 3-1 in the Rams’ last four games.

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14, 43.5)

How much is good quarterback play worth to the pointspread? Consider this: before this week, the Packers had been a 14-point or larger underdog just once since 1994. The Pack were 14-point underdogs against the Patriots in 2010. Coincidentally, Green Bay was missing Aaron Rodgers in that game too.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened with the Steelers favored by 13.5 points and then moved up to 14, although there were a few books that opened 14.5 and went down a half point. Either way, it appears to be settling on a two-touchdown spread. The total has gone up two points from 41.5 to 43.5.

TRENDS:

*Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
*Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 26
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TB at ATL 01:00 PM
TB +10.0
O 47.0

CLE at CIN 01:00 PM
CLE +7.5
O 39.0

CHI at PHI 01:00 PM
CHI +14.0
U 43.5

CAR at NYJ 01:00 PM
CAR -5.5

BUF at KC 01:00 PM
KC -8.5

TEN at IND 01:00 PM
IND +3.0
O 46.5

MIA at NE 01:00 PM
MIA +17.0
U 49.0

SEA at SF 04:05 PM
SF +6.5
U 45.0

NO at LAR 04:25 PM
LAR -2.5

JAC at ARI 04:25 PM
ARI +5.5

DEN at OAK 04:25 PM
DEN +3.5

*******************************

SUNDAY NIGHT PICK

GB at PIT 08:30 PM
GB +13.5
U 43.0