The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

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Betting Recap - Week 11
November 20, 2017

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 11 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-2
Against the Spread 9-3-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-7
Against the Spread 5-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-7

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Giants (+10, +350 ML) vs. Chiefs, 12-9 (OT)
Bengals (+2.5, +130 ML) at Broncos, 20-17

The largest favorite to cover
Chargers (-7) vs. Bills, 54-24
Jaguars (-7) at Browns, 19-7
Patriots (-7) at Raiders, 33-8
Steelers (-7) vs. Titans, 40-17

Giant Confusion

-- The New York Giants fell to the winless San Francisco 49ers in Week 10, so they were going to get creamed by the Super Bowl hopeful Kansas City Chiefs, right? Well, the hard-to-figure G-Men ended up putting up a tremendous defensive effort in a 12-9 overtime victory against the Chiefs. The Giants improved to 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS, as you never know which team is going to show up. Remember when they won straight-up on the road against the Denver Broncos as 13 1/2-point underdogs back on Oct. 15. The 'over' was also 5-2 over their past seven, so naturally the game was the lowest-scoring game on the entire schedule after overtime no less.

STOP LATERALLING ON THE FINAL PLAY!!!

-- With a total of 44, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers kicked the game-winning field goal with :04 left in regulation, taking a 23-20 lead on the Miami Dolphins. 'Under' bettors are OK, right? Wrong. The Dolphins had a series of laterals, all the while going in the complete opposite direction. Naturally, the ball clips off a Miami player and falls into the end zone where Adarius Glanton of the Bucs pounces on it for the 29-20 left with :00 left. Of course, the NFL makes them kick the meaningless extra point, too, just in case bettors could use an adjustment to the result of their teasers, too.
Total Recall

-- The Philadelphia Eagles tried their hardest on Sunday Night Football to cash the 'over' (48.5), putting up 30 second-half points. The Dallas Cowboys didn't come along for the ride, however, going without any points in the second half, and with just three field goals for the entire game. Nah, they're not missing Ezekiel Elliott at all after two outings of his six-game suspension. No wonder Jerry Jones is working hard to make sure Roger Goodell is not brought back as NFL Commissioner.

-- The two lowest totals on the board -- Jacksonville-Cleveland (37) and Cincinnati-Denver (37.5) each cashed the 'under'. In fact, the Jags scored a defensive touchdown late, or the score would have been even lower. The Bengals-Broncos game might have been a push at some shops, but officially it cashed by a half-point at most shops. The 'over' had been 3-1 in the past four for Cincinnati, while the 'over' was 3-0 in the past thre for Denver, mostly because their defense hasn't been able to stop anyone.

-- The New England-Oakland (55.5) game at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City was expected to be a shootout at elevation, but only the Patriots got the memo. They posted 33 points, while the Raiders didn't score their first points until the fourth quarter well after the result of the game was decided. At least Washington-New Orleans (53) was as advertised. The teams combined for 25 points in the fourth quarter in a game decided in overtime. The 'over' is 3-2 at the Superdome this season.

-- The 'Over/under' is 1-1 through the first two primetime games of Week 11, and the 'over' is 21-13 (61.7%) through the first 34 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's Atlanta Falcons-Seattle Seahawks game still pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Rams WR Robert Woods (shoulder) had his arm in a sling after Sunday's loss at Minnesota due to a shoulder injury. He'll have an MRI on Monday.

-- Redskins RB Chris Thompson (leg) suffered a fractured fibula which requires surgery and he is done for the season.

Looking Ahead

-- The Lions will host the Vikings to kick off Thanksgiving. The teams met back in Week 4, with the Lions winning 14-7 as 2 1/2-point underdogs at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. These teams also met last Thanksgiving, with the Lions winning and covering. In fact, Detroit is 3-0 SU/ATS with the 'under' going 3-0 in the past three meetings in this series. The 'under' is 7-1 in the past eight meetings in this series.

-- The Redskins will host the Giants in the evening game on Thanksgiving. The Giants have dominated this series lately, going 6-2 SU/ATS in the past eight meetings. Washington has won just once in the past four home games against the G-Men, while going 1-3 ATS. Four of the past five meetings at FedEx Field have resulted in the 'under', too.

-- The Colts host the Titans looking to avenge a 36-22 loss on Monday Night Football back on Oct. 16, failing to cover a seven-point number. It also snapped an 11-game winning streak by Indianapolis in the series dating back to Oct. 30, 2011. The Titans haven't won in Indianapolis since Dec. 30, 2007. The 'over' has connected in four of the past five meetings in the series.

-- The Falcons host the Buccaneers, a team they haven't had a lot of luck against lately. Atlanta is just 1-3 SU/ATS over the past four meetings in this series. The 'over' has hit in three of the past four meetings in Atlanta, although this is the first meetings at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

-- The Patriots host the Dolphins, and they opened as 16 1/2-point favorites. New England has won eight straight games at Gillette Stadium against Miami dating back to Sept. 21, 2008. The Patriots are also 5-0 ATS in their past five home games against the Dolphins, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings overall.

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Books survive Pats, Eagles
November 20, 2017

If I told you that Las Vegas' two biggest risks in Sunday's NFL Week 11 action would cover the spread, would you be inclined to believe the sports books lost on the day? How about if one them was the massive public favorite in a night game situation with almost every live parlay and teaser waiting to cash? Or how about if favorites went 8-3-1 against the spread on the day?

The answer isn't necessarily yes or no. It's complex. There were a lot of different moving parts happening in the books. Yes, the popular Eagles (-6.5) won 37-9 at Dallas on Sunday night and the Patriots (-7) beat the Raiders 33-8 while 7,200 feet above sea level in Mexico City. But some books found themselves able to withstand the most popular 13-to-5 parlay payout of the day (Pats-Eagles) and show a profit.

"Our day has actually been okay with big wins from the Bengals and Giants and covers by the Redskins (+9 at Saints) and Vikings (-2 vs. Rams)," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "The Patriots (-7) was our worst game of the day, but we're thankful that it stayed Under the total (55.5)."

It should be noted that the Patriots stayed in the high altitude of Colorado Springs all last week after winning at Denver to be prepared for the excessive heights of Mexico City. The Raiders flew straight in from Oakland, which is 43 feet above sea level, on Saturday. The Patriots (8-2) have won six straight and they've covered the past four weeks.
McCormick said that they did well enough from the first 11 games that an Eagles cover wouldn't make them a loser on the day. It was the same situation at the 10 MGM Resorts sports books across the strip.

"The Philly cover gives back about half of what we won on the day," said MGM's sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback just prior to kickoff. "Philly and Over (48) would be our worst scenario."

Stoneback opened the Eagles as 3.5-point favorites at Dallas and they closed at -6 -115 while most other books like Wynn and Stations closed at -6.5.

"We got a lot of sharp Dallas buy back on the phones to keep us from going to -6.5," said Stoneback.

William Hill books had 95 percent of their action on the game taking the Eagles, most of it rumored to be from one bettor who has a duffle bag full of cash and who lays six-figures, or whatever he can get, at multiple bet shops in town. He's part of the reason why there was such a rapid line movement around town. The public is the other reason as William Hill had 89 percent of the tickets written on the game taking the Eagles. Philadelphia (9-1) has won eight straight and covered its last seven. Of course they're popular, everyone is cashing with them.

The night games this season have been a thorn in the side of books for most of the season.

"Seems like all these isolated night games finish the same way with the favorite and Over happening," said Stoneback, bracing himself for the worst decision Sunday night which didn't happen. "On Thursday night we had the Steelers and Over hit and the past four Monday night's have seen favorite to the Over."

A few books lost with the Eagles decision, and others remained in the black after posted, but most were unified in the key games they won with.

Before the Giants 12-9 overtime home win against the Chiefs, KC coach Andy Reid had been 16-2 coming off a bye. The Giants (+10.5) moved to 2-8 on the season while the Chiefs dropped to 6-4 after a 5-0 start. The Chiefs only win in their last five came against the lowly Broncos, who dropped their sixth straight Sunday at home against the tired Bengals. Both those games turned out to be the biggest wins between the first 11 games of the day for MGM books.

"The Giants win was huge for us," said Stoneback. "It was half our win on the day and most of the win came from big money-line parlays taking the heavily favorites teams; they bet a lot to win a little and we've got a couple of players that routinely bet the games like that.

The Chiefs led the NFL with the fewest turnovers on the season with four, but had three passes intercepted Sunday. The Wynn Las Vegas sports book closed the game a city high +400 on the Giants money-line.

"Our second-best win was Cincinnati beating the Broncos outright in the afternoon games," Stoneback said of the Bengals 20-17 win at Denver (-3 EV). "The Broncos had a ton of parlays attached to them, a lot of which were tied to the Patriots and Eagles, but the Bengals win got posted first in the system."

The last time Denver lost six straight was in 1990, a season John Elway started all 16 games. It's a shame with him as Executive VP that he wouldn't have the team better equipped at the QB position. Maybe there's a method to his madness with the continued losing turned into a positive for the future with QB's Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen and Mason Rudolph all figuring to be high draft picks.

By the way, the Bengals win snapped a 10-game losing at Denver dating back to 1975 and their win Sunday paid out at high of +135 on the money-line at the South Point. William Hill sports books reported having 92 percent of the cash on the game taking the Broncos.

The Browns looked to be on their way to getting a cover and maybe even a win, down 13-7 at home against the Jaguars with 1:14 to go and the ball. But Browns QB DeShone Kizer fumbled the ball backwards into his own end zone. After one of the Browns players couldn't recover, a Jaguars defender recovered for 6-points and a 19-7 lead. The Browns fail to cover the spread again in a brand new miserable way, this time getting +7.5. So close, and yet so far away. Cleveland is inventing new ways weekly for bettors to have epic bad beat stories. Wise guys are playing the perceived weekly value with Cleveland and getting buried.

The Buccaneers had a 30-20 win at Miami, a game where the Dolphins went from -3 to Tampa Bay -1.5 by kickoff. But the big swing with was the total which moved from 40.5 to 44. The game was sitting 23-20 with the books facing middle opportunities. Tampa Bay kicked off with seconds left after kicking the winning field goal and Miami tried a bunch laterals on the return, but their final lateral landed in the end zone and and a Buccaneer recovered for a TD. All steamed Over play gets there no matter when betting it.

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MNF - Falcons at Seahawks
November 19, 2017

LAST WEEK

The Falcons (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) won for the first time at Mercedes Benz Stadium since Week 2 as Atlanta trounced Dallas, 27-7 to easily cash as 3 ½-point favorites. Atlanta also covered for the first time in six games as quarterback Matt Ryan connected on a pair of short touchdown passes, while the Falcons’ defense yielded 233 yards to the Cowboys. Ryan put together an efficient 22-of-29 passing performance for 215 yards, while running back Tevin Coleman rushed for 83 yards on 20 carries and one touchdown.

Atlanta put together its best defensive effort of the season by allowing single-digit points for the first time since giving up seven points at Tennessee in 2015. Since the 3-0 start to the season, the Falcons own a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS record, but Dan Quinn’s squad has outgained opponents in six of the past seven contests.

The Seahawks (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) continued their ascent towards the top of the NFC West race behind the surprising Rams by picking up their fifth win in the past six games at Arizona last Thursday. Seattle held off Arizona, 22-16, while pushing as six-point road favorites to improve to 3-0 in the division, including a pair of away victories. Russell Wilson tossed a pair of touchdown passes to go along with 238 yards for Seattle, as he connected with tight end Jimmy Graham on both scores.

Seattle suffered a major loss in the secondary as standout cornerback Richard Sherman was lost for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. In spite of Sherman’s injury, the Seahawks managed to hold their seventh opponent to 18 points or fewer this season, while racking up their third consecutive victory away from CenturyLink Field.

ROAD WOES

Atlanta owns a winning record away from Mercedes Benz Stadium this season at 3-2, but the Falcons have covered only once on the highway. In fact, the Falcons’ lone road cover came at Detroit in Week 3 as three-point favorites, 30-26, as a late Lions’ touchdown was wiped off the board on a questionable tackle at the goal-line. Atlanta was limited to 17 points or fewer in road defeats at Carolina and New England, while rallying to beat the Jets, 25-20 as 6 ½-point favorites in Week 8. Last season, the Falcons posted a solid 7-2 ATS record on the highway, including a 4-2 ATS mark as an underdog.

HOME SWEET HOME

We know about Seattle’s domination at CenturyLink Field over the years (42-7 since 2012), but the Seahawks haven’t exactly played the greatest competition at home in 2017. Seattle’s three victories have come against San Francisco, Indianapolis, and Houston, who have combined for a 7-22 record on the season. In wins over the 49ers and Texans, Pete Carroll’s squad managed winning margins of three points apiece and failed to cover. In Seattle’s previous home contest against Washington in Week 9, the Redskins stunned the Seahawks, 17-14 as eight-point underdogs.

TOTAL TALK

The high-flying Falcons’ offense has been grounded this season by cashing the UNDER in six of nine games, compared to a 16-2-1 mark to the OVER last season. Atlanta is currently on a 5-1 UNDER run, while hitting the UNDER in five of six games with a closing total below 50. Seattle has finished UNDER the total in four of the past five contests, but its two highest-scoring games of the season came at home with OVERS against Indianapolis (46-18) and Houston (41-38).

SERIES HISTORY

The Falcons and Seahawks split a pair of matchups last season with the home team winning each time. Seattle blew a 17-3 lead in the first matchup at CenturyLink Field in October as Atlanta scored 21 unanswered points to go in front, 24-17. Running back Christine Michael scored a one-yard touchdown, but kicker Steven Hauschka missed the extra point as the Seahawks trailed by one. Hauschka redeemed himself late in the fourth quarter by booting a 44-yard field goal to give Seattle a 26-24 win, but the Falcons cashed as 6 ½-point underdogs.

Atlanta picked up revenge in the divisional playoffs against Seattle by blasting the Seahawks, 36-20 as 6 ½-point favorites. Ryan torched the Seattle defense for 338 yards and three touchdown passes, while running back Davonte Freeman picked up 125 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. The Falcons intercepted Wilson twice, while outscoring the Seahawks, 36-6 after falling behind 7-0 early.

Since 2010, the Falcons have won four of six meetings with the Seahawks, including a 2-1 mark at Seattle in this stretch. Five of these six matchups have eclipsed the total, including in both games last season.

UNDER THE LIGHTS

The Favorite-OVER combination has been money in the bank the last five weeks on Monday night football, while the OVER is 8-3 on Mondays this season. The Falcons have cashed plenty of tickets in Monday action since 2012 by going 5-1 ATS, including a perfect 4-0 ATS mark in the underdog role. The Falcons have yet to play on a Monday this season, but knocked off the Saints last season, 45-32 as three-point ‘dogs in its lone Monday affair. Under Carroll, the Seahawks own a perfect 7-0 record on Mondays, including a 5-0 mark at CenturyLink Field.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com expert Vince Akins provides a trend to keep an eye on for this contest. “The Falcons are 0-8-1 OU since Sep 14, 2014 as a dog facing a team Matt Ryan threw at least two touchdowns against in a win in their last meeting.” Atlanta has won and covered in four of the past five times in this trend as well, while going UNDER in this situation twice in 2016.

BOOKMAKER’S TAKE

Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu gives his view from behind the counter, “Action has poured in on Atlanta over the last 48 hours, which has forced a 1.5-point drop. The injury bug has bit Seattle’s secondary in a big way, and the bettors have reacted. Currently, we have 65 percent of the bets on the Falcons and 70 percent of the money on that side as well. This will likely close at a pick ‘em.”

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MONDAY, NOVEMBER 20
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ATL at SEA 08:30 PM

SEA +1.0

O 46.0

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Ryan's 2 TD passes enough as Falcons hold off Seahawks 34-31
November 20, 2017

SEATTLE (AP) Matt Ryan threw a pair of touchdown passes, Adrian Clayborn returned a fumble 10 yards for a score and the Atlanta Falcons held off a late rally to beat the Seattle Seahawks 34-31 on Monday night.

Atlanta stayed in the hunt for an NFC playoff spot thanks to its second straight victory and handed Seattle a second consecutive home loss. Ryan threw TDs to Mohamed Sanu and Levine Toilolo, while Tevin Coleman added a 1-yard TD run on Atlanta's opening possession. But it was Clayborn's fumble return that helped break the game open early in the second quarter and gave Atlanta a 21-7 lead.

Seattle attempted a late rally down by 11 points. Russell Wilson hit Doug Baldwin on a 29-yard TD with 3 minutes left, and Seattle got in range for a long field goal attempt by Blair Walsh in the closing moments, but his 52-yard attempt with 2 seconds left came up short and Atlanta escaped with the victory.

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Thanksgiving Day Trends
November 20, 2017

Trends for Detroit-Minnesota

-- The Lions had lost nine straight on Thanksgiving Day prior to wins in each of the last four seasons

-- Detroit has seen the 'over' go 7-3 in the last 10 on Thanksgiving Day

-- Minnesota will be visiting Detroit for the second straight season on Thanksgiving and second time since 1995

-- The Vikings own an all-time 5-2 record on the holiday, but they've had more success against Dallas (3-0)

Trends for Dallas-L.A. Chargers

-- Dallas owns a 31-18-1 record on Thanksgiving Day

-- Five of the last eight wins by Dallas on Thanksgiving Day have come by double-digits

-- The Cowboys have allowed 30.8 points per game in their last five holiday matchups

-- Los Angeles will be making its first appearance on Thanksgiving. The San Diego franchise played in an AFL contest back in 1969

THANKSGIVING HISTORY - DETROIT

Year Matchup
2016 Detroit 16 Minnesota 13
2015 Detroit 45 Philadelphia 14
2014 Detroit 34 Chicago 17
2013 Detroit 40 Green Bay 10
2012 Houston 34 Detroit 31 (OT)
2011 Green Bay 27 Detroit 15
2010 New England 45 Detroit 24
2009 Green Bay 34 Detroit 12
2008 Tennessee 47 Detroit 10
2007 Green Bay 37 Detroit 26
2006 Miami 27 Detroit 10
2005 Atlanta 27 Detroit 7
2004 Indianapolis 41 Detroit 9
2003 Detroit 22 Green Bay 14
2002 New England 20 Detroit 12
2001 Green Bay 29 Detroit 27
2000 Detroit 34 New England 9
1999 Detroit 21 Chicago 17
1998 Detroit 19 Pittsburgh 16 (OT)
1997 Detroit 55 Chicago 20
1996 Kansas City 28 Detroit 24
1995 Detroit 44 Minnesota 38
1994 Detroit 35 Buffalo 21
1993 Chicago 10 Detroit 6
1992 Houston 24 Detroit 21
1991 Detroit 16 Chicago 6
1990 Detroit 40 Denver 27
1989 Detroit 13 Cleveland 10
1988 Minnesota 23 Detroit 0
1987 Kansas City 27 Detroit 20
1986 Green Bay 44 Detroit 40
1985 Detroit 31 N.Y. Jets 20
1984 Detroit 31 Green Bay 28
1983 Detroit 45 Pittsburgh 3
1982 N.Y. Giants 13 Detroit 6
1981 Detroit 27 Kansas City 10
1980 Chicago 23 Detroit 17 (OT)
1979 Detroit 20 Chicago 0
1978 Detroit 17 Denver 14
1977 Chicago 31 Detroit 14
1976 Detroit 27 Buffalo 14
1975 L.A. 20 Detroit 0
1974 Denver 31 Detroit 27
1973 Washington 20 Detroit 0
1972 Detroit 37 N.Y. Jets 20
1971 Detroit 32 Kansas City 21
1970 Detroit 28 Oakland 14
1969 Minnesota 27 Detroit 0
1968 Philadelphia 12 Detroit 0
1967 L.A. Rams 31 Detroit 7


THANKSGIVING HISTORY - DALLAS
Year Matchup
2016 Washington 26 Dallas 31
2015 Carolina 33 Dallas 14
2014 Philadelphia 33 Dallas 10
2013 Dallas 31 Oakland 24
2012 Washington 38 Dallas 31
2011 Dallas 20 Miami 19
2010 New Orleans 30 Dallas 27
2009 Dallas 24 Oakland 7
2008 Dallas 34 Seattle 9
2007 Dallas 34 N.Y. Jets 3
2006 Dallas 38 Tampa Bay 10
2005 Denver 24 Dallas 21 (OT)
2004 Dallas 21 Chicago 7
2003 Miami 40 Dallas 21
2002 Dallas 27 Washington 20
2001 Denver 26 Dallas 24
2000 Minnesota 27 Dallas 15
1999 Dallas 20 Miami 0
1998 Minnesota 46 Dallas 36
1997 Tennessee 27 Dallas 14
1996 Dallas 21 Washington 10
1995 Dallas 24 Kansas City 12
1994 Dallas 42 Green Bay 31
1993 Miami 16 Dallas 14
1992 Dallas 30 N.Y. Giants 3
1991 Dallas 20 Pittsburgh 10
1990 Dallas 27 Washington 17
1989 Philadelphia 27 Dallas 0
1988 Houston 25 Dallas 17
1987 Minnesota 44 Dallas 38 (OT)
1986 Seattle 31 Dallas 14
1985 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1984 Dallas 20 New England 17
1983 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1982 Dallas 31 Cleveland 14
1981 Dallas 10 Chicago 9
1980 Dallas 51 Seattle 7
1979 Houston 30 Dallas 24
1978 Dallas 37 Washington 10
1976 Dallas 19 St. Louis 14
1974 Dallas 24 Washington 23
1973 Miami 14 Dallas 7
1972 San Francisco 31 Dallas 10
1971 Dallas 28 Los Angeles 21
1970 Dallas 16 Green Bay 3
1969 Dallas 24 San Francisco 24
1968 Dallas 29 Washington 20
1967 Dallas 46 St. Louis 21

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NFL notebook: Former WR Glenn dies in car crash
November 20, 2017

Former NFL wide receiver Terry Glenn died early Monday morning after being involved in a car crash in Irving, Texas. He was 43.

Glenn was taken to Parkland Memorial Hospital, where he died shortly after midnight, the Dallas County medical examiner's office said.

The Irving Police Department confirmed to ESPN that an accident occurred at 12:18 a.m. local time Monday. According to police, the car left its travel lane and crashed into a concrete barrier that divides the express lanes from the local lanes. The driver was ejected from the car and a passenger suffered minor injuries, police told ESPN.

Glenn played parts of 12 seasons in the NFL with the New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys. He made the Pro Bowl in 1999 as a member of the Patriots. He was drafted seventh overall by the Patriots in 1996 out of Ohio State. He caught Tom Brady's first NFL touchdown pass in 2001.

In his six seasons with the Patriots (1996-2001), Glenn played in 68 games and recorded 329 receptions for 4,669 yards and 22 touchdowns. He currently ranks eighth in team history in receiving yards and ninth in receptions.

--Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones' bid to derail a proposed contract extension for NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has hit a roadblock, according to a published report.

The NFL compensation committee basically told Jones to back down in his ongoing threat to sue the NFL if league owners approve Goodell's extension, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Jones wanted all the league owners to vote on Goodell's extension but his request was squashed by the committee, which told the Dallas owner that his continued threats "reflects conduct unbefitting an owner and is damaging to the League."

Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank, chairman of the six-person compensation committee, wrote in a letter that Jones was on a mission "to satisfy your personal agenda" while ignoring the facts of the issue, the newspaper reported.

--Pittsburgh Steelers right tackle Marcus Gilbert was suspended without pay for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing substances.

Gilbert will miss the Sunday night game with the Green Bay Packers and cannot return until Pittsburgh's Week 16 game against the Houston Texans.

"We are disappointed that Marcus Gilbert has been suspended without four games for using performance-enhancing substances. He will not appeal the NFL's decision," Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert said in a statement.

Colbert also said Gilbert will not be allowed to be in any of the team's facilities until Dec. 18.

--The Denver Broncos fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy and named quarterbacks coach Bill Musgrave as his replacement, head coach Vance Joseph announced.

Joseph informed McCoy on Monday morning that he was being relieved of his duties after the Broncos lost their sixth straight game on Sunday, falling to 3-7 with a 20-17 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Klint Kubiak, one of former coach Gary Kubiak's sons, will serve as the team's quarterbacks coach. He has been an offensive assistant working with the quarterbacks for the last two seasons.

The Broncos are 18th in the league in total offense (329.8 yards per game), 24th in scoring (18.3 points per game) and 30th in touchdown efficiency. Denver's offense has scored just 17 touchdowns this season.

--President Donald Trump is calling on the NFL to suspend Oakland Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch for sitting during "The Star-Spangled Banner" before Sunday's game in Mexico City but standing for the Mexican national anthem.

Trump, who has repeatedly criticized NFL players who do not stand for the national anthem, took to Twitter early Monday morning to criticize Lynch for his protest before the game against the New England Patriots, who went on to win 33-8.

"Marshawn Lynch of the NFL's Oakland Raiders stands for the Mexican Anthem and sits down to boos for our National Anthem. Great disrespect! Next time NFL should suspend him for remainder of season. Attendance and ratings way down," Trump tweeted.

Lynch was actually standing during the first few bars of "The Star-Spangled Banner" on Sunday before taking a seat, according to ESPN. While Lynch stood for the Mexican anthem, he was not completely at attention, ESPN reported.

--Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has been ruled out this week after his injured throwing shoulder was re-evaluated by doctors on Monday.

Head coach Dirk Koetter told reporters that Winston is not ready to return for Sunday's game against the Atlanta Falcons. Winston will be re-evaluated next week, Koetter said.

Winston, who has missed the last two games, has been battling a sprained AC joint in his right shoulder since Week 6. He was sidelined two weeks ago to rest his shoulder.

Backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is 2-0 since starting for Winston, including Sunday's 30-20 victory over the Miami Dolphins when he threw for 275 yards and two touchdowns.

--The New Orleans Saints lost defensive end Alex Okafor to a season-ending torn Achilles suffered in Sunday's victory over the Washington Redskins, according to multiple reports.

Okafor, 26, injured his left leg in the fourth quarter of the 34-31 overtime win and was helped off the field by trainers and medical personnel before being taken to the locker room.

The 6-foot-4, 261-pound Okafor joined the team as an unrestricted free agent in March after signing a one-year deal worth up to $3 million, giving the first-place Saints (8-2) a defensive resurgence.

Okafor started all 10 games, recording 43 tackles, 4.5 sacks, nine quarterback hits and two forced fumbles.

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NFL opening line report: Patriots open Week 12 as biggest betting favorites of the season
Patrick Everson

“It really doesn’t matter who’s under center for Miami in this game, it had to be the biggest spread of the season. Not sure what else to say here. It’s going to be ugly.”

Week 12 of the NFL season kicks off with a trio of Thanksgiving Day games, although only one of those matchups appears to be worth pulling you away from the kitchen or the dining room table. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening line for that contest and three others this week, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (pick)

Minnesota continues to get it done on the field and at the betting window, winning six in a row while cashing in the last five. The Vikings (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) pulled away from the Los Angeles Rams in the second half Sunday, nabbing a 24-7 victory as a 1-point home favorite.

Detroit (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) followed a three-game skid with a three-game win streak (2-0-1 ATS), though it was a struggle to get that last one. The Lions went to Chicago as a 3-point chalk and twice trailed by 10, but rallied for a 27-24 victory.

Bookmaker.eu opened the game pick ‘em, but the Vikings moved to -1.5 late Sunday night for the first game on Turkey Day, a 12:30 p.m. ET kickoff.

“The Lions can’t afford to fall behind here, as they seemingly do week after week,” Cooley said. “Minnesota has proven to be one of the best teams in the NFC, but Detroit is a quality club as well. It feels like the public will be on the chalk, but sharps may side with the home squad. We’ll just wait and see where this one goes.”

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)

Two of the NFL’s more surprising teams this season get together, with New Orleans riding a huge hot streak to the top of the NFC South. The Saints (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) lost their first two games, but have ripped off eight in a row since (7-1 ATS). The only game New Orleans didn’t cash in during that stretch came Sunday, a 34-31 home overtime victory against Washington laying 9.5 points.

Los Angeles (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) had its four-game SU and ATS run halted at the hands of another surprise team, Minnesota. The Rams were in a 7-7 tie on the road at halftime, but scored no more in a 24-7 setback as a 1-point underdog.

“I maintain that the Saints aren’t as good as their record indicates, but the public loves to play them each and every week,” Cooley said. “Meanwhile, the Rams’ loss wasn’t as lopsided as the score looked. Everyone will be expecting a shootout here, so we pumped up the total.”

Indeed, Bookmaker opened the total at 53.5.

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5)

After a bumpy first few weeks, Pittsburgh looks to be rounding into playoff form, with five consecutive wins (4-1 ATS) heading into this Sunday prime-time contest. In last week’s Thursday nighter, the Steelers (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) thumped Tennessee 40-17 laying 7 points at home.

Green Bay is a shell of itself in the absence of Aaron Rodgers (broken collarbone). The Packers (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four and hit rock-bottom Sunday in a 23-0 home loss to Baltimore as a 2.5-point pup.

“Brett Hundley is proving why Aaron Rodgers is worth so much to a line,” Cooley said. “The current Green Bay club is in the bottom third of the NFL. Pittsburgh is gaining momentum and finally finding its footing, so we wanted to be generous with this number. It’s doubtful we see any Packers money from the public.”

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-17)

Defending Super Bowl champion New England is really dialing it up to 11. The Patriots (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) have won six straight, cashing the last five, including in Sunday’s 33-8 rout of Oakland as a 7-point fave in Mexico City.

Miami (4-6 SU, 3-5-2 ATS) has dumped four in row in falling below .500. The Dolphins went off as 1-point home ‘dogs to Tampa Bay on Sunday and lost 30-20. Quarterback Jay Cutler left the game with a concussion at the end of the first half, yielding to Matt Moore the rest of the way.

“There’s really no difference in terms of value between Jay Cutler and Matt Moore,” Cooley said. “It really doesn’t matter who’s under center for Miami in this game, it had to be the biggest spread of the season. Not sure what else to say here. It’s going to be ugly.”

The line actually ticked down to 16.5 Sunday evening.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 23

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MINNESOTA (8 - 2) at DETROIT (6 - 4) - 11/23/2017, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 132-172 ATS (-57.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (4 - 6) at DALLAS (5 - 5) - 11/23/2017, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 94-68 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DALLAS is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (2 - 8) at WASHINGTON (4 - 6) - 11/23/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 37-63 ATS (-32.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 34-58 ATS (-29.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 59-93 ATS (-43.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 22-46 ATS (-28.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 26

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CLEVELAND (0 - 10) at CINCINNATI (4 - 6) - 11/26/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 72-99 ATS (-36.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 5-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (3 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (9 - 1) - 11/26/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (4 - 6) at NEW ENGLAND (8 - 2) - 11/26/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 70-97 ATS (-36.7 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (5 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (6 - 4) - 11/26/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 6) at ATLANTA (5 - 4) - 11/26/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (7 - 3) at NY JETS (4 - 6) - 11/26/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 82-49 ATS (+28.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 55-28 ATS (+24.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (6 - 4) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 7) - 11/26/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 29-52 ATS (-28.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (6 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 9) - 11/26/2017, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 5-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (8 - 2) at LA RAMS (7 - 3) - 11/26/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS is 181-228 ATS (-69.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 181-228 ATS (-69.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 129-180 ATS (-69.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 140-180 ATS (-58.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 61-93 ATS (-41.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 66-96 ATS (-39.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (7 - 3) at ARIZONA (4 - 6) - 11/26/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 42-22 ATS (+17.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
ARIZONA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (3 - 7) at OAKLAND (4 - 6) - 11/26/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 75-104 ATS (-39.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 75-104 ATS (-39.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 59-83 ATS (-32.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 26-49 ATS (-27.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 75-104 ATS (-39.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 37-77 ATS (-47.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 20-42 ATS (-26.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (5 - 5) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 2) - 11/26/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 184-131 ATS (+39.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 94-68 ATS (+19.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 71-42 ATS (+24.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 27

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HOUSTON (4 - 6) at BALTIMORE (5 - 5) - 11/27/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 23

MINNESOTA @ DETROIT
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games

LA CHARGERS @ DALLAS
LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
Dallas is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Dallas is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
NY Giants is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants


Sunday, November 26

BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City's last 12 games when playing at home against Buffalo

TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta's last 15 games at home

CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland

TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

CAROLINA @ NY JETS
Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
NY Jets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Jets is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games

CHICAGO @ PHILADELPHIA
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing Seattle

NEW ORLEANS @ LA RAMS
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

DENVER @ OAKLAND
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oakland's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Denver

JACKSONVILLE @ ARIZONA
Jacksonville is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Jacksonville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Arizona's last 16 games at home

GREEN BAY @ PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Thanksgiving Day edition
Monty Andrews

The Vikings will look to extend their hot streak on the strength of a sensational run defense - one that could cause Detroit serious problems.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+1.5, 44.5)

Vikings' vaunted run defense vs. Lions' limp ground game

The Detroit Lions playing on Thanksgiving is an NFL tradition - and this year's game carries added significance as the Lions look to keep pace with the first-place Minnesota Vikings in an NFL North showdown. The Lions have won three consecutive games but have yet to slice into Minnesota's two-game lead, as the Vikings have reeled off six wins in a row. They'll look to extend that hot streak further on the strength of a sensational run defense - one that could cause Detroit serious problems.

While a surprisingly balanced offense led by quarterback Case Keenum has been a factor in the Vikings' rise to the top of the NFC power rankings - alongside the Philadelphia Eagles, of course - it's that vaunted defense that has played the biggest role. Minnesota has allowed more than 17 points just once during the streak, and held one of the league's most formidable attacks at bay last weekend, using a big fourth quarter to subdue the Los Angeles Rams 24-7.

Minnesota squashed the Rams' running game from the start, limiting Todd Gurley and Co. to 45 rushing yards on 17 attempts. That has been the trademark of the Vikings' 2017 resurgence - they rank in the top three league-wide in average rushing yards against (77.7), yards per carry allowed (3.3) and fewest rushing first downs allowed (3.8). It's no wonder that teams run the ball just 37.4 percent of the time against Minnesota, the second-lowest rate in the league.

The Lions are known for being a pass-first team - they throw the ball nearly 62 percent of the time, the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. But when they do run the ball, the results have been ... not good. Detroit ranks 28th in the league in rushing yards per game (80.8), 30th in yards per carry (3.4) and 24th in rushing touchdowns per contest (0.4). Matthew Stafford can't air it out every time - and when Detroit does take to the ground, bettors should expect Minnesota to shut down the run game with emphasis.

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-1, 47.5)

Chargers' 1-2 sack combo vs. Cowboys' suddenly leaky O-line

It's officially time to panic in Big D, as the Dallas Cowboys enter their annual Thanksgiving foray desperate to improve their suddenly sagging playoff chances. The Cowboys have dropped two in a row and were humiliated at home in their last game, a 37-9 drubbing at the hands of the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles. Times have been tough without offensive lineman Tyron Smith, and if he doesn't return this weekend, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott might find himself on his back a whole lot.

The last thing a team struggling to protect its quarterback wants to see is a date with the Chargers on the calendar. Los Angeles is in tough to make the postseason - it comes into this one with a disappointing 4-6 mark - but you can't blame the pass rush, which has consistenly been one of the league's best all season long. The Chargers enter Week 12 having compiled 30 sacks to date; only the Jacksonville Jaguars (40) and Pittsburgh Steelers (30) have more.

The catalyst for Los Angeles' QB-chasing prowess: The sensational duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for an incredible 19 sacks between them; Bosa ranks third overall with 10.5 sacks, while Ingram is close behind in seventh (8.5). They're the second-most prolific duo in the league, behind only the Jaguars' tandem of Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. An Oct. 1 loss to the Eagles is the only game all season in which neither Bosa nor Ingram recorded a sack.

With two QB hunters as effective as Bosa and Ingram coming to town, you can forgive Prescott for feeling a little antsy. The second-year signal caller has been sacked a whopping 12 times over the past two weeks, as the Cowboys' pass protection has completely faltered in Smith's absence. If he can't go this Thursday, look for Bosa and Ingram to make Prescott run for his life - and in a game that's expected to be close, that could tip the scales in favor of the visitors.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 44.5)

Giants' big-play D struggles vs. Kirk Cousins' long-pass prowess

The New York Giants have long been eliminated from post-season contention - but they have proven to be a tough out in recent weeks, and would love nothing more than to ruin the Redskins' playoff hopes this weekend in an NFC East tussle at FedExField. The Giants shocked the visiting Kansas City Chiefs 12-9 on Sunday, and will look to carry that momentum into conference play, having lost their first seven games to NFC foes. But to do it, they'll need to find a way to contain Kirk Cousins.

The Giants haven't done a lot of things right - and while most of the attention has been focused on the offense, and quarterback Eli Manning in particular, the defense hasn't inspired much confidence, either. New York has been a magnet for big passing plays, allowing quarterbacks an average of 7.7 yards per pass attempt - lower than just four other NFL teams. And the Giants rank 28th out of 32 teams in average yards per completed pass against (7.5).

That makes this weekend's showdown with Cousins and the Redskins the perfect test. Cousins has made a career out of throwing the ball downfield, and is averaging a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt so far in 2017 - only Tom Brady (8.3), Jared Goff (8.3) and Drew Brees (8.2) have a higher rate. It should come as no surprise, then, that Cousins comes into Week 12 ranked second in the NFL in passing yards (2,796) despite sitting sixth in total attempts (345).

If last week is any indication, the Giants should expect Cousins to be even more vertically inclined than usual. Cousins averaged more than 10 yards per passing attempt in Sunday's stunning overtime loss to the New Orleans Saints, racking up 322 passing yards on 32 throws. And while his 7.98 passing yards per attempt at home ranks slightly below his road mark (8.25), facing a Giants secondary that has been more than generous should bump his home mark above the 8.00 mark for the season.

[StarDust Bum]

Thanksgiving Best Bets
November 22, 2017

NFL Thanksgiving Two-Pack Feast Of Best Bets

Thanksgiving has finally arrived and that means that football fans get a full Thursday of NFL action rather then just waiting until the evening to get action down.

Last week I was able to cash rather easily with my TNF selection on the Pittsburgh Steelers, and with three games to sink my teeth into this week, it's the latter two that I'm looking to attack and achieve identical results to last week's wager on the Steelers.

Let's get right to the Best Bets for Thursday to hopefully help that Turkey go down just a little smoother.

Best Bet #1: LA Chargers/Dallas Over 47.5

The LA Chargers make the trip to Dallas for Thanksgiving, just four days after they obliterated the Buffalo Bills out in California. Aided by Buffalo's brutal decision to start QB Nate Peterman, the Chargers forced six turnovers in the game (5 INT's off Peterman alone), en route to a 54-24 victory. It's not often I like to back an 'over' a week after a team scored 30+, but the manner in which the Chargers put up 54 on Buffalo was so uncommon with that many turnovers, that asking this Chargers team to pull their weight offensively on a short week shouldn't be an issue.

It's the Cowboys offense that is more cause for concern these days as they've failed to score more than 9 points in the two games they've played since RB Ezekiel Elliott was forced to finally serve his six-game suspension. Dallas is on the brink of this becoming a lost season for themselves, and this offense really has to start pulling their weight. Elliott isn't coming back any time soon, but there are still plenty of weapons out there for the Cowboys, and if you have an offensive line that can hold up against L.A's top tier pass rush, plenty of big plays down the field can be had. But what makes me believe this will be a highly competitive, back-and-forth game is the situation both teams find themselves in.

Both the Chargers and Cowboys are on the fringe of making a late-season playoff push and it's really now or never for both of them with December approaching. Both have holes on defense, so to get where they want to be they are going to have to rely on their offenses to do most of the damage. This is one of those AFC/NFC games that I've touched on all year in terms of tending to be higher scoring, and the fact that the Chargers are 7-0 O/U in their last seven against NFC East teams (2-0 O/U this year) bodes well for this 'over' play. The Cowboys themselves are 1-1 O/U this season against AFC teams this year, but their 4-1 O/U mark on Thursday home games their last five opportunities (with an average point total of 54.2) is another reason to expect plenty of points here.

With both teams averaging over six yards per pass attempt and some questions of either durability (Chargers) or effectiveness (Cowboys) with their running game, we could see the ball chucked all over the yard on Thursday afternoon.

Best Bet #2: New York Giants +7.5

The Giants have been a team the betting market has really struggled with this season as they have been responsible for three of the more shocking “upsets” we've seen all year. Two of those games were the Giants winning the game themselves as both of their SU wins have come as double-digit underdogs (vs Denver, vs Kansas City), while nearly the entire world backed them two weeks ago against the hapless (and then winless) San Francisco 49ers only to see them completely lay an egg in a cross-country trip the Giants really wanted no part of. Well, even after upsetting the Chiefs last week and burning the majority of bettors who couldn't stop touting HC Andy Reid's record post-bye, bettors are back to fading New York again this week as they travel to Washington to take on the Redskins.

Washington is a team that took the Saints down to the wire a week ago and were in great position to win that game outright basically the entire way. An effort like that will almost always garner plenty of respect from bettors the following week and that seems to be the case here. VegasInsider.com shows about 70% of the point spread wagers have bettors laying the chalk with Washington as the Giants are back out on the road and everyone has no problem remembering what New York did the last time they were away from home.

However, even though the Giants have given up on their campaign weeks ago and showed it to a T in their trip to San Francisco two weeks back, playing the role of spoiler for wounded teams like this is always dangerous from a betting perspective in two specific situations: Either as a home underdog when everyone's counted you out as we saw last week against the Chiefs; or against any division rival, especially one like Washington trying to make a late playoff push.

New York knows there season will be over after Week 17, but anything they can do to spoil the 2017 campaign for the likes of Dallas, Washington, or Philadelphia will go a long way for motivational purposes in the offseason. Four of New York's remaining six games (including this week) are against division rivals, with this being the first of two this year against Washington. After this week they've got home games with all three of those teams left on the docket which should make New York a very dangerous ATS squad in those specific spots.

Regarding this week though, those road concerns many weren't able to see prior to backing New York vs the 49ers aren't really an issue here. There is no long flight, and the “familiarity breeds contempt” notion should help the Giants hang tough here. Offensively, New York will have to be much better than they have been of late, but for whatever reason, four of the five times New York has managed to score 20+ points during this injury-riddled season have been on the road. All four of those efforts have been in their most recent four trips away from home, and with the underdog being 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these two, taking the points may not be such a bad idea.

After all it is the Redskins who have all the pressure to perform at 4-6 SU in their attempt to sneak into a Wildcard spot by season's end, and as the season draws closer to a finish, having that added pressure to get a W can often lead to the exact opposite happening. I'm not saying that the Giants will win this game outright to grab their first winning streak of the year, but look for the guys in New York's locker room to take their role of “spoiler” seriously again this week and keep this game well within a TD.

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Turkey Day Notebook
November 22, 2017

NFL Thanksgiving Day Betting Notes

The NFL is just as much a part of Thanksgiving Day in most households across America as turkeys are, and part of the fun of the whole holiday for sports bettors is getting the chance to wager on three standalone games.

Since Thanksgiving Day football is unlike anything else, there are special notes that beg to be looked at that could help bettors gain an upper hand at BookMaker.eu.

The first game of the day is always in Detroit. History will tell you that this is the dog of the games on national television, but this year, that simply isn't the case. The Lions will welcome the Vikings to Motown for the second straight Thanksgiving, and this time around, the game could end up deciding the NFC North.

If Detroit can beat Minnesota, it will pull to within one game of the division lead with five to play. If the Vikings come on the road and take care of business, they'll be 9-2, essentially have the NFC North locked up and be in a spot where it should at least contend for a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Last season, Detroit was able to pick up a huge win over the Lions. The Vikings are 5-2 all-time on Thanksgiving Day but are just 1-2 when playing in Detroit.

The Lions are 37-38-2 on Thanksgiving, including winning four straight games. Detroit has covered five straight on this holiday, one of the longest streaks for any team in the history of Thanksgiving Day football.

The middle game between the Cowboys and Chargers is interesting in that, both teams are on the wrong side of the playoff bubble at the moment but hold a lot of cards to get back into it.

L.A. is heading in the right direction after beating up the Bills last week at home. Dallas, meanwhile, is struggling with life without Ezekiel Elliott and Tyron Smith. The Cowboys have been beaten in two straight games and haven't come close against either Atlanta or Philadelphia.

The Cowboys don't quite have the most wins on Thanksgiving Day, but they certainly have the best record amongst teams who have played at least 10 times. They're 30-18-1, and they always seem to be at their best even when they aren't in good form as is the case this year.

The Chargers are making their first appearance on Thanksgiving Day since 1969. They hold a 2-1-1 record on Turkey Day.

If the Chargers beat the Cowboys, they'll become the first AFC team to come on the road and beat an NFC team on Thanksgiving since the Texans beat the Lions in overtime in 2012.

One of the newer Thanksgiving Day traditions is the addition of a Thursday Night Football game. These games are typically divisional battles or matchups that will almost certainly be key playoff races.

This year's game between the Giants and Redskins isn't quite as illustrious as NBC would have hoped. The two teams have combined for just six wins this season.

At least the G-Men are fresh off of a big win over the Chiefs in Week 11. Washington is heading in the wrong direction after coughing up a 15-point lead in the last three minutes in New Orleans.

The Giants are a solid 7-4-3 all-time on Thanksgiving. Washington, who routinely plays against Dallas periodically on Thanksgiving, is just 2-7, one of the worst winning percentages in the NFL.

NFL Thanksgiving Day Betting Lines - per BookMaker.eu

Minnesota Vikings -3
Detroit Lions +3
Over/Under 45

Los Angeles Chargers -2
Dallas Cowboys +2
Over/Under 47.5

New York Giants +7
Washington Redskins -7
Over/Under 44.5

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Total Talk - Thanksgiving
November 22, 2017

The NFL festivities on Thanksgiving Day will feature a pair of divisional matchups and an intriguing non-conference contest from the Lone Star State. It appears that the oddsmakers have posted strong opening numbers on the three-game card since none of the totals have moved drastically in either direction as of Wednesday afternoon.

Minnesota at Detroit (FOX, 12:30 p.m. ET)

Divisional matchups have watched the ‘under’ go 29-14 (67%) this season and this particular series has leaned heavily to the low side recently. Seven of the last eight games between the pair have watched the ‘under’ cash and that includes their first meeting this season in Week 4 from Minnesota.

In that outcome, the Lions captured a 14-7 win over the Vikings and the ‘under’ (43 ½) was never in doubt. This week’s total has been pushed up to 45 and the adjustment is fair considering both clubs have improved offensively since their first meeting.

In the first encounter on Oct. 1, Detroit (251 yards) and Minnesota (284) both struggled moving the ball offensively and the result of the game was clearly based on mistakes. The Vikings fumbled three times, which led to 10 points from the Lions and Minnesota also missed a field goal too.

This was the third start in 2017 for Vikings quarterback Case Keenum and he only completed 53.3 percent of his passes (16-of-30), which has been his worst effort this season. Since that setback, the signal caller has been much better and the Vikings have won six straight games while averaging 27 points per game.

Minnesota’s defense has been very strong the last few seasons and this year’s squad is arguably one of the best in the league. Defensively, the Vikings are ranked fourth in scoring (17.2 PPG) and fifth in total yards (290.5 YPG) while the Lions are near the bottom half of the league in both scoring (23.4 PPG, #19) and yards (354.5 YPG, #23). What’s a little surprising is that Detroit has been worse defensively at home (24.8 PPG) compared to its road numbers (22 PPG). If you like to delve deeper into the analytics, the Vikings defensive unit is ranked third in yards per play (4.7) while Detroit (5.6) sits in the bottom third.

Despite being home ‘dogs, the Lions enter this game with some confidence and a three-game winning streak. They’re averaging 31.6 PPG over this span but the defense has surrendered 21.6 PPG to a trio of teams (Packers, Browns, Bears) that aren’t exactly juggernauts.

Prior to the last three wins, the Lions had dropped three in a row to teams that are expected to make this year's playoffs in the Panthers (27-24), Saints (52-38) and Steelers (20-15). The Vikings are currently on pace to make the postseason as well and you wonder if Detroit can finally show up against a top tier opponent.

Coincidentally, these teams played on Thanksgiving Day last season and the Lions won 16-13. It was the fourth straight win on the holiday for Detroit and also the lowest offensive production by the club during this span.

L.A. Chargers at Dallas (CBS, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The highest total (47 ½) on Thursday takes place in the late afternoon matchup and it’s not an easy game to handicap. The Chargers (-2) are listed as road favorites and if you look at the early Week 1-16 odds posted by CG Technology, the Las Vegas betting shop had Dallas (-10) as a healthy favorite.

After a rough 0-4 start, the Chargers have won four of six and their defense has been a big part of that success. They’ve allowed 17.2 PPG in their last six games and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 4-2. The Bolts just dropped 54 on the Bills at home last week but that result was assisted with six turnovers caused by their defense.

Meanwhile, Dallas has dropped back-to-back games since running back Ezekiel Elliot started serving his suspension and the offense has been held to a combined 16 points in the losses. QB Dak Prescott has tossed three interceptions and been sacked eight times in his absence. The Cowboys attack will get a boost Thursday with tackle Tyron Smith (groin) returning to the lineup but the defense won’t have linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring).

Dallas has watched the ‘under’ cash in its last three games and when catching points at home, the Cowboys have seen the ‘under’ go 4-0 in those games which includes last week’s result to Philadelphia.

The Chargers have seen both of their games versus NFC East opponents go ‘over’ this season but Dallas has watched eight of its last 10 games against the AFC go ‘under’ the number.

The Cowboys have been a mess defensively on the holiday recently, allowing 30.8 PPG in their last five Thanksgiving Day games. The Chargers haven’t played on the holiday since 1969 when the franchise was part of the AFL.

N.Y. Giants at Washington (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

This will be the 12th season that the NFL will have a primetime game on Thanksgiving and the ‘under’ has gone 7-4 in the first 11 matchups. This year’s contest will feature the Giants visiting the Redskins and the total is hovering between 44 and 45 points at most betting shops. Both clubs are dealing with a ton of injuries and this could turn out to be a real ugly game to watch. You can always bet the Egg Bowl.

The Giants have watched their total results (5-5) go back and forth all season but Washington has posted a 7-3 lean to the ‘over’ and they enter this game off a pair of shootout losses. While the offense has looked decent (30.5 PPG), the defense was torched for 38 and 34 points and they’re now allowing 26.6 PPG on the season. Only the Indianapolis Colts (28 PPG) are below them in scoring defense. Fortunately for Washington, the Giants have not scored more than 30 points in any of the 27 games with Ben McAdoo as head coach.

New York doesn’t have much firepower (308.5 YPG, 16.2 PPG) offensively due to injuries but based on the Redskins defensive form, you wonder if the Giants can muster up some offense especially after beating Kansas City at home last week. That was just New York’s second victory of the season and after the first one (at Denver), they were brought back to life with a 24-7 drubbing to Seattle.

The last four totals in this series have split 2-2 but the two ‘under’ tickets took place at FedEx Field (19-10, 20-14). All four of those numbers ranged from 45 to 47 points. Weather shouldn’t be a major factor but the temperatures will likely fall into the thirties by kickoff.

Fearless Predictions

As I’ve written many times before in previous holiday installments, if you’re reading this then you’re probably betting and for that, be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

Best Over: Minnesota-Detroit 45

Best Under: New York-Washington 44 ½

Best Team Total: Over Minnesota 23 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Minnesota-Detroit 36 ½
Under Los Angeles-Dallas 55
Under New York-Washington 53

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Thanksgiving Day Essentials
November 22, 2017

Minnesota (-3, 45) at Detroit, 12:30 p.m. ET, FOX

Detroit looks to win a fifth consecutive Thanksgiving Day game, a far cry from the days when watching Lions fans sporting paper bags to hide their faces in shame was as reliable a part of this holiday’s tradition as the turkey and stuffing. To extend the run, they’ll have to do so as a home underdog.

The Vikings (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) flexed a little muscle last Sunday, doing so with a quarterback who arguably wouldn’t be on the roster if Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater had each been healthy in training camp. Bridgewater was expected to miss most, if not all of the season, after tearing up his knee in ’16. Recovery has gone well for him and the former first-round pick is healthy enough to claim his job back. Case Keenum isn’t letting that happen.

Although its tremendous defense has done the heavy lifting, Minnesota has managed to score enough to roll off six straight wins, managing at least 20 points in each of the games. Following a 24-7 home win over the Rams on Sunday, Keenum ranks second in the NFL in QBR behind Houston’s Deshaun Watson and has been sacked only once during the winning streak.

Matthew Stafford has been sacked more than any starting quarterback in the NFL besides Indianapolis’ Jacoby Brissett, surpassing Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers. Despite the pressure and an inconsistent running game, he’s been fantastic in spreading the ball around, developing chemistry with Marvin Jones, Jr. in addition to top target Golden Tate. Deep threat Kenny Golladay has gotten healthy of late, so this will be a great test for the Vikings defense, which held Jared Goff and the league’s highest-scoring offense scoreless after surrendering a touchdown on the opening drive.

The Lions (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) come in on a three-game winning streak themselves, which means there will be a large crowd in store at Ford Field as they look to remain a factor in the NFC postseason race. Currently even with Atlanta and Seattle at 6-4, Detroit doesn’t play another team currently above .500 after this one. That makes this a golden opportunity to get a leg up in the Wild Card race, not to mention pulling the Lions within a win in the NFC North race.

Entering the week, the Vikings were a 1/5 lock at Westgate to win the division, while the odds for the Lions coming back to catch them offered an 11/4 payout. That would almost certainly require a win here, which would mark a second straight Thanksgiving Day win over the Vikings.

Kicker Matt Prater delivered last year’s win with a 40-yard field goal at the final gun, his second kick inside the final 1:45 after being set up by a Bradford interception with 38 seconds left. The teams entered that game 6-4 and gave Detroit the NFC North lead. Green Bay ended up winning the division, but last year’s game ended up making the difference in the Lions making the playoffs ahead of the Vikes, who finished 8-8.

The Lions won the first meeting of this season in Week 4, prevailing 14-7 in Minneapolis by pitching a scoreless second half against the Keenum-led offense. The Vikings literally fumbled the game away, coughing it up three times, so they should be a determined group looking to avoid a season sweep for the second straight year. The Vikings haven’t lost four straight against the Lions since 1963.

Rookie RB Dalvin Cook was still terrorizing defenses and scored Minnesota’s only touchdown in the first meeting, but has since been lost for the seasons. Latavius Murray has his shake back and scored two touchdowns last season, while Jerick McKinnon is jumping over people when he can’t go through them, so their rushing attack remains a threat. Adam Thielen’s 916 receiving yards give him the third-largest output through 10 games behind Randy Moss in the team annals, while Stefon Diggs’ hamstring injury has improved, so Keenum still has plenty of help as he looks to fare better against Detroit’s defense than he did on Oct. 1.

The Vikings have scored an average of 12 points in their three losses to Detroit, so taking some shots downfield may be part of the game plan. If Ziggy Ansah (back) misses another game, the Lions will be down their most effective pass rusher. He’s the main injury concern for either team. The Vikings welcomed back DE Everson Griffen last week and will have their secondary intact with Xavier Rhodes and Andrew Sendejo cleared to work for a group that surrendered their lowest-scoring output of the season.

The Lions have averaged 31.7 points over their three-game surge, but are just 37-38-2 all-time on Thanksgiving despite their run of four straight wins.

L.A. Chargers (-2, 47.5) at Dallas, 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS

It’s incredible that just two weeks ago, the Cowboys (5-5, 5-5) opened their November slate with an impressive victory over Kansas City where they imposed their will and the offensive line looked like it had last season, dominating impressively. No one would’ve believed you if you told them you had arrived from the future to declare that the Chargers would be favored in Arlington on Thanksgiving.

Standout left tackle Tyron Smith then aggravated a back injury, hasn’t played since that win and has watch as Dallas has been outscored 64-14 by Atlanta and Philadelphia. His brothers on the offensive line have been manhandled and Dak Prescott has been harassed without him in the mix. Over the past two weeks, Prescott hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass and has been sacked 12 times. The absence has been so glaring that even RB Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension has taken a back seat since his presence wouldn’t have mattered much given the offensive line’s ineptitude.

News that Smith will attempt to play on Thursday was therefore met with great relief given that defensive ends Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa await to feast on any uncertainty along the Dallas’ offensive front. Coming off terrorizing a bad Buffalo o-line and forcing five interceptions from rookie QB Nathan Peterman before creating even more mayhem against Tyrod Taylor, the Chargers were licking their chops and may still be the driving force in this middle game of a Thanksgiving tripleheader.

Despite being under .500 at the 10-game mark, Los Angeles (4-6, 5-4-1) harbors playoff aspirations. Only one game behind the Bills for the No. 6 spot in the AFC, the Chargers are actually a hot streak away from contending for the AFC West crown. A 54-24 win over the Bills opened up a world of possibilities, doubling as the new franchise record for a single-game scoring output and providing hope that a team which has dropped four games by three or fewer points has finally made a breakthrough.

L.A. still has a game at Kansas City to play, but following this one, will host Washington, Cleveland and Oakland in addition to visiting the N.Y. Jets. The rest of the games on the schedule are all winnable if Philip Rivers stays healthy, so you can count on an exciting one since both teams are invested in winning to keep their realistic playoff hopes alive.

The sight of an unhappy Jerry Jones had become a popular internet meme on Thanksgiving for a few years there since the Cowboys had lost three of four prior to last season’s thrilling 31-26 win that was put away by Elliott’s second touchdown run. It was the 10th of 11 consecutive wins Dallas secured last season, but the team had lost its previous two games on turkey day by a 66-24 margin.

Besides Smith and Elliott, the Cowboys have missed the services of standout middle linebacker Sean Lee, who has already been ruled out due to a hamstring injury. Key LB Anthony Hitchens is also questionable for the Cowboys, as is guard La’el Collins. DE DeMarcus Lawrence will play through a shoulder issue. Kicker Dan Bailey is also attempting to return from a groin injury, but has been replaced effectively by Mike Nugent, who would once again fill in if Bailey can’t go.

The Chargers list tackles Joe Barksdale and Russell Okung as questionable but expect both to play. The same goes for DTs Corey Liuget and Brandon Mebane. L.A. is playing its first Thanksgiving game since the 1960s, before the merger. The Cowboys are 30-18-1.

N.Y. Giants at Washington (-7, 44.5), 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Schedule makers meant well when they cooked up the idea of this game being a worthwhile nightcap to the Thanksgiving feast. Unfortunately, similar to what transpired back in 2012 when the butt fumble upstaged a 49-19 Patriots’ rout of the Jets, we have ourselves a laughable matchup.

Washington (4-6, 4-6) hosts New York (2-8, 4-6) in a game between teams realistically eliminated from the NFC’s playoff picture. The Giants come off a 12-9 overtime upset of the Chiefs on Sunday, taking advantage of windy conditions and a rough outing from Alex Smith to pull out an upset that paid as much as +400.

The Redskins were headed to a remarkable upset win over the Saints in New Orleans before an improbable comeback landed the game in overtime. It was a devastating setback for Washington, which led 31-16 with 4:16 remaining but couldn’t stop Drew Brees or rookie Alvin Kamara down the stretch, then couldn’t get anything going offensively in OT.

Making matters worse, Washington lost its most valuable offensive weapon, RB Chris Thompson, to a fractured fibula. He ranked third in the NFL as a receiving threat out of the backfield. QB Kirk Cousins took a few big hits but is expected to be out leading an offense that has lost WR Terrell Pryor, tight end Jordan Reed and multiple offensive linemen. Rookie Samaje Perine will start at running back, Byron Marshall will try and fill Thompson’s shoes and there’s a possibility Pro-Bowl tackle Trent Williams will be among those who can’t participate.

The Giants won’t sympathize, but can, having lost the likes of Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall and multiple offensive linemen themselves. Second-year WR Sterling Shepard came off an injury and had five receptions for 70 yards to provide some hope, but he missed last week’s games due to migraine and may not play here either. Head coach Ben McAdoo is a lame duck, so it remains to be seen whether the Giants will come out to play for him on a holiday. It’s likely for that reason that Washington is such a resounding favorite since they’re in the same boat health-wise.

The teams will play the final week of the regular season in what will almost certainly be a meaningless game. This one will draw more eyeballs due to people digesting their turkey dinners and attempting to close out parlays. Unlike the other two games that will be played in domed stadiums, weather will be a factor in Landover. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 30s, but the wind gusts expected should have a minimal impact.