Jets upset Bills 34-21 behind Forte TDs
November 2, 2017
EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) Matt Forte ran for two touchdowns four days after complaining the Jets didn't run the ball enough, and an overwhelming defense sacked Tyrod Taylor seven times Thursday night in New York's 34-21 demolition of the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo (5-3) came in having scored 64 points in its last two wins, but self-destructed with turnovers and miscues. New York (4-5), which snapped a three-game slide in which it held leads in each defeat, looked more like the challenger to New England in the AFC East.
Forte scored on runs of 10 and 5 yards and had 14 carries for 77 yards. Augmenting that was Bilal Powell with a 51-yard burst and 74 yards on nine carries. Quarterback Josh McCown got in on the fun with a 10-yard scramble to open the scoring and New York rushed for 194 yards overall.
Jordan Jenkins had two of the Jets' sacks as they never allowed Buffalo's offense to get on track.
Indeed, mistakes were the Bills' trademark.
Buffalo made a key error on New York's second touchdown drive. Cedric Thornton sacked McCown, but grabbed his face mask. The 15-yard penalty, which followed a 20-yard pass to Jermaine Kearse and a 22-yard run by Forte, led to Robby Anderson beating double coverage for a 25-yard TD reception.
Forte's 10-yard run made it 24-7 and came one play after Powell broke four tackles on his 51-yard jaunt that featured slick moves and plenty of speed.
The Bills hurt themselves further when Nick O'Leary fumbled on a strange play. The tight end caught Taylor's third-down pass and fell to the ground untouched. He delayed, heard no whistle, and got up. But the ball then was stripped by rookie safety Marcus Maye and recovered by fellow rookie safety Jamal Adams.
Adding to the miscues, Bills DE Jerry Hughes drew a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for mouthing off to an official - during a timeout, no less - on the ensuing Jets drive.
Taylor also fumbled when sacked for the sixth time, and Forte's 5-yard TD run followed. And even when the Bills recovered a late onside kick, they were flagged for offside.
New York opened the scoring - the fourth straight game it has led early - after some strong defense pinned Buffalo near its goal line. A punt set up the Jets near midfield and they used eight plays to score.
McCown, looking very spry for a 38-year-old QB, went in untouched down the left side on a scramble for a 7-0 Jets lead.
Buffalo matched that, aided by Taylor's 18-yard scramble on third down. Rookie Zay Jones caught his first pro TD, an 11-yarder when he got wide open over the middle.
An offensive pass interference call on Austin Sefarian-Jenkins TD catch negated the tight end's TD early in the second quarter and the Jets settled for Chandler Catanzaro's 45-yard field goal to retake the lead. He later hit a 32-yarder.
The Jets found a pass rush that was missing in action most of the year. They came in with 11, which was last among teams that had played eight games.
Buffalo scored two late touchdowns to make the final margin less lopsided.
J-E-T-S
Fireman Ed, once the team's unofficial cheerleader, led the J-E-T-S chant for the first time this season. It got pretty loud, too, even though there were several thousand empty seats at MetLife Stadium.
INJURIES
Bills: Rookie Jones, who was having a fine first half with four catches for 40 yards and a touchdown, was tripped by cornerback Buster Skrine and injured his right leg and was helped off. Jones, Buffalo's second-round pick, returned for the second half. Running back Taiwan Jones hurt his left arm in a scramble for a fourth-quarter onside kick.
Jets: WR Jeremy Kerley left in the first quarter with a foot injury. LB Bruce Carter (hamstring) was sidelined in the second half.
UP NEXT
Bills: Host New Orleans on Nov. 12.
Jets: Visit Tampa Bay on Nov. 12.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
Week 8 Record: 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS
Overall Record: 25-23 SU, 21-26-1 ATS
Broncos at Eagles (-7 ½, 43) – 1:00 PM EST
Denver
Record: 3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1
The Broncos have fallen apart following a 3-1 start by dropping three straight games, while scoring 19 points or less in five consecutive contests. Denver has pulled the plug on quarterback Trevor Siemian following Monday night’s 29-19 setback at Kansas City, as Brock Osweiler is back in the saddle for the Broncos. Osweiler last started for Denver in the Super Bowl winning season of 2015 before signing with the Texans. Denver is winless in three road games, while losing seven of its past nine contests away from Sports Authority Field.
Philadelphia
Record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1
The Eagles keep rolling following a 33-10 rout of the winless 49ers to pick up their sixth consecutive victory. Philadelphia has covered in five straight games, while owning a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record at Lincoln Financial Field this season. Quarterback Carson Wentz has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four straight games, while busting the 28-point mark in each of those victories. The Eagles are hosting the Broncos for the first time since 2009 when Philadelphia edged Denver, 30-27 as seven-point favorites.
Best Bet: Broncos +7 ½
Rams (-3 ½, 42) at Giants – 1:00 PM EST
Los Angeles
Record: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1
The Rams return from the bye week fresh off a 33-0 shutout of the Cardinals in London back in Week 7 to pick up their fifth win of the season. Last season, Los Angeles finished 4-12, so this team has already exceeded their win total from 2016 as their next two opponents are currently below the .500 mark (Giants and Texans). The Rams have stepped up defensively of late by allowing 33 points in their last three games, while finishing off a three-game stretch away from the Coliseum.
New York
Record: 1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1
The Giants are also off their bye week, but New York couldn’t put together enough offense to beat Seattle in a 24-7 setback two weeks ago. New York is in a stretch of three consecutive games against NFC West opponents (at San Francisco next week), as the Giants beat the Rams last season in London, 17-10, the fourth straight win in the series since 2008. The Giants seek their first home victory following an 0-3 SU/ATS start at Met Life Stadium after closing last season with six straight wins in New Jersey.
Best Bet: Rams -3 ½
Bengals at Jaguars (-5 ½, 39) – 1:00 PM EST
Cincinnati
Record: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1
It hasn’t been a pretty start to the season for Cincinnati, but the Bengals have surged of late by winning three of their past four games to pull within one game of .500. Granted, two of those wins have come against Cleveland and Indianapolis, but the Bengals will take this stretch over the 0-3 start to the season. In last Sunday’s one-point win over the Colts, the Bengals needed a 16-yard interception return for a touchdown by Carlos Dunlap in the fourth quarter to deny Indianapolis its first road victory of the season.
Jacksonville
Record: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1
Jacksonville is the only team in the league to own this distinction, alternating SU/ATS wins and losses through the first seven weeks. The Jaguars are coming off a 27-0 shutout of the Colts in Week 7 to easily cash as three-point favorites, while limiting an opponent to less than 10 points for the fourth time this season. Jacksonville will try to get on track at home, where it is 0-2 SU/ATS at EverBank Field, and owns a 1-10 record the past 11 home contests since 2015.
Best Bet: Bengals +5 ½
Falcons (-1, 43 ½) at Panthers – 1:00 PM EST
Atlanta
Record: 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1
Atlanta snapped a three-game skid to avoid falling below .500 in last Sunday’s 25-20 victory over the Jets. The Falcons failed to cover for the fourth straight week, but the offense finally busted out as Matt Ryan tossed a pair of touchdown passes, while the ground game racked up 140 yards. Atlanta has yet to play an NFC South opponent this season, as the Falcons compiled a 5-1 division record last season, including a sweep of the Panthers.
Carolina
Record: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1
The Panthers seem like a sinking ship in spite of a 5-3 record as top target Kelvin Benjamin was dealt to the Bills this week. Carolina ended a two-game losing streak with a 17-3 triumph at Tampa Bay to improve to 4-1 on the road. The Panthers need to improve their home mark, which sits at 1-2 after losing to the Saints and Eagles at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina owns a perfect 3-0 ATS mark in the underdog role, while going 6-2 ATS when receiving points since the start of 2016.
Best Bet: Falcons -1
Redskins at Seahawks (-7, 45) – 4:05 PM EST
Washington
Record: 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1
Things haven’t gone well for the Redskins since 2-1 start, who have lost three of their past four games with the lone victory coming against the winless 49ers by two points. Washington is in the midst of an 0-4 ATS streak, capped off by recent divisional losses to Philadelphia and Dallas. The Redskins have been lit up during this stretch by allowing 29, 24, 34, and 33 points, resulting in four consecutive OVERS. Washington makes its first trip to Seattle since 2011 when it beat the Seahawks, 23-17, but have lost the last two matchups at home in the 2012 playoffs and 2014 regular season.
Seattle
Record: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1
The Seahawks have rebounded from a 1-2 start by winning four straight games, highlighted by a thrilling 41-38 triumph over the Texans last Sunday. Seattle failed to cash as six-point favorites, but Russell Wilson rallied the Seahawks with a late touchdown pass to Jimmy Graham, finishing off a 452-yard, four touchdown performance. Even though Seattle’s defense allowed more points to Houston (38) than it had in its previous three victories (35), the Seahawks improved to 11-1 in their past 12 games at CenturyLink Field.
Best Bet: Redskins +7
Chiefs at Cowboys (-1, 51 ½) – 4:25 PM EST
Kansas City
Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1
The Chiefs put their brief two-game losing streak behind them in Monday’s 29-19 home victory over the Broncos as seven-point favorites. Kansas City was outgained for the third straight game, but the Chiefs improved to 2-1 in the AFC West and 3-1 SU/ATS at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs started 3-0 on the road, including impressive showings at New England and Houston before a last-second loss at Oakland in Week 7. Kansas City heads to Dallas for the first time since 2005, while beating the Cowboys in their last matchup in 2013 by a 17-16 count as three-point favorites.
Dallas
Record: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1
The Cowboys begin life without star running back Ezekiel Elliott, who starts his six-game suspension on Sunday. Dallas returns home following a pair of road blowouts of San Francisco and Washington to improve to 3-1 away from AT&T Stadium. However, the Cowboys haven’t won at home since Week 1 against the Giants, as Dallas blew late leads in losses to Los Angeles and Green Bay in October. Dallas has registered four consecutive OVERS, while topping the 28-point mark in five straight games.
Best Bet: Chiefs +1
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
We've got a wide range of totals put up by oddsmakers this week as there are a couple of NFL games currently in the 39 range, while a few others are 50+. In the middle there currently isn't anything higher than 45, so it's clear that oddsmakers believe that all the points we see in Week 9 will likely come from a select few games as teams begin the second half of 2017.
Will that be the case or will a few of the games with low posted totals end up surprising many and become full blown shootouts? We will have to wait until Sunday to find out, but for now let's get to this week's best total plays.
Odds per - HeritageSports.eu
Best Bet #1: Cincinnati/Jacksonville Over 39
The Bengals saved their season at least for another week when they were able to get a defensive TD late last week to beat Indianapolis 24-23 as a double-digit home favorite. I use the term “saved” very loosely though as it looks at though it's just a matter of time before the Bengals find themselves well out of the playoff race in the AFC this year, although that could change with a strong performance in Jacksonville this weekend. QB Andy Dalton has to be much, much better if Cincy wants any hope of turning things around, and he'll definitely be in tough against this “Sacksonville” defense.
The Jaguars are coming off their bye week here, and teams coming off their week of rest in the NFL are 6-4 O/U already this year. Jacksonville is one of six teams in that spot this week, but they are the one with the lowest posted total on the board and I do like their chances to put up points. If a depleted Colts attack can score 23 on Cincy, a Jags team that has scored 20+ in five of their seven games should be able to put up a similar number.
In fact, Jacksonville has only failed to score less then 20 in two of their three losses this year, and with the point spread on the Jags opening up at -3.5 and since being bet up to -5.5, clearly many bettors out there like them to win this game. I'm inclined to agree, and with 27+ points scored in all four of the Jags wins this year, this total is too low.
Jacksonville is 3-1 O/U after the bye week the past four years, and with the pressure the DL line gets for the Jags, getting Andy Dalton to turn the ball over and get a short field a few times definitely helps this 'over' play. The Jags are also 5-0 O/U in their last five at home, and with their last outing being a shutout victory over those same Colts, a 5-0 O/U trend comes into play as well for the Jags after allowing 14 or fewer points.
Cincinnati will do their part to put up points and take shots when they can because when the going gets tough for this team, Dalton reverts to the mode of simply taking shots downfield to AJ Green. That entire Bengals locker room knows they need a lot more production on offense and this could be the week we see them break out a bit. Yes, Jacksonville's defense is good, but this is still a Jags organization that's still learning how to win and when franchises are in that stage, mistakes do happen.
Finally, this 'over' play fits well with the contrarian mentality if that's what you typically prefer. VegasInsider.com current shows more than 90% of the action on this total has come in on the low side of this low number as all the talk concerns the Bengals horrific offense, Jacksonville's ability to get to the QB, and the Jags preference to run the ball and bleed the clock. All of those things are true, but they also don't mean points won't be scored.
Jacksonville has the best rushing attack in the league (169 rushing yards/game), and favorites that have rushed the ball for at least 140 yards this year are 19-3 O/U. That's not a trend I'm looking to buck here, especially when the weakness of Cincinnati's defense is against the run.
With a high likelihood of multiple turnovers here, from both sides, we could see a lot of short fields for both offenses and as long as they can convert those drives into TD's and not FG's, this game should easily hit 40+ points.
Odds per - HeritageSports.eu
Best Bet #2: Kansas City/Dallas Under 51
This Kansas City/Dallas game is one of the marquee matchups in the later afternoon slate on Sunday, and it is one of those games where oddsmakers do expect to see points. With KC on a 4-1 O/U run over their last five games, and Dallas 4-0 O/U in their last four and 5-1 O/U in their last six, it's easy to see why many do expect plenty of points to be scored.
Dallas has three straight weeks of putting 30+ up on the board, and Kansas City isn't far behind with all but one of their games this year having at least 24 points scored.
However, this will be the first game without RB Ezekiel Elliott for the Cowboys this year and although RB's mean next to nothing to point spreads and totals, there is no question his replacements in Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden are a downgrade. The Cowboys are still a run-first team and when you employ that strategy and have backs that are less likely to break the big run, the game shortens up in a hurry and a high total like this will be tough to reach.
Kansas City is coming off two tough division games the last two weeks and Andy Reid can't be happy that the defense allowed a combined 50 points in those two outings. KC will likely want to get back to their own running game with Kareem Hunt to keep Dak Prescott and the Cowboys attack off the field, and with a 2-5 O/U record after a MNF game, this total may be a touch to high to surpass.
Finally, KC is in a prime 'under' spot that we've seen the last few weeks as they are one of four teams heading into their bye week in Week 10. NFL teams are 6-16 O/U this year the week before their bye and that includes a 2-10 O/U run the past two weeks. This angle could lose some steam over the next few weeks, but with the number on this KC/Dallas game being one of the highest on the board, I'm willing to ride it at least one more time for this specific spot.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
Week 9 means that we've basically hit the halfway point of the campaign and what we've seen from teams so far is basically what we should come to expect going forward. If a NFL team hasn't established some sort of identity – good or bad – by this point of the year, they are likely in some serious trouble moving forward.
Yet, after one of the most active trade deadlines we've had in the NFL earlier this week, there are a few teams looking to reshape their current identities going forward. Two of those teams who made big trades at the deadline are involved in the games I've isolated as best bets for the week as both are involved in divisional matchups this week.
Best Bet #1: Carolina Panthers -1
It's funny how quick perception can change on teams on a week-to-week basis in this league. Atlanta was able to bring home the cash last week if you bet it earlier in the week as I did here at -4.5 with their five-point comeback win over the Jets. Bettors weren't thrilled with the Falcons after their blowout loss in New England the week prior, but after a close win against a bad Jets team, it appears as though many are back on the Falcons bandwagon.
VegasInsider.com's betting percentages show more then 70% of the bets so far have come Atlanta's way this week, and that action has pushed the line down from it's opener of -2.5 on Carolina. Not only did Atlanta's victory help their cause, but Carolina trading away WR Kelvin Benjamin this week has many believing that the 5-3 SU Panthers are basically “punting” on this season now.
Yet, the Panthers defense is one of the best in the entire league, and whatever the reasons that the Carolina brass had for making the Benjamin trade, in their eyes it was the right move to do. There is no way the Panthers view that move as a “punt” on the campaign, and I wouldn't be surprised if a move like that tightens the bonds within that locker room and we see everyone step up their play this week.
Secondly, the Falcons are in a brutal scheduling spot with this being their third consecutive game on the road. Fading teams in that spot typically works out more often than not regardless of opponent, but it's even better against a divisional rival that's got a ferocious defense and battling for first place.
This 2017 Atlanta Falcons team is nowhere near the same one as last year's bunch that went to the Super Bowl, and wouldn't you know it, Super Bowl losers playing their third straight game on the road are 1-10 SU and ATS the last 11 times this situation has come up.
With this spread basically a pick'em now, I'm riding with the home side who many are writing off now simply because of one trade. WR's injuries/absences etc generally mean next to nothing to the point spread, but everyone's already reacting to the Benjamin trade like the Panthers aren't going to win again this year. With the league's second best defense and plenty of weapons still in town, this Carolina team comes out with a huge chip on their shoulder and wins this game by at least a TD.
Best Bet #2: Arizona Cardinals -2
The Cardinals are in San Francisco this week to take on a 49ers team that went out and got their QB of the future (hopefully) this week when they got Jimmy Garoppolo from New England. There has been talk that Garoppolo could end up seeing the field just five days after he was acquired, but even if that's the case it's going to be a base type offense from a San Fran team that is really quite bad.
Arizona is coming off their bye week after getting flat out embarrassed over in London last time out. The 33-0 loss they suffered to the Rams was a double-whammy with Carson Palmer getting hurt, but backup Drew Tate has plenty of experience in this league and the extra week to prepare with the first team will only help his cause.
Going up against a bad 49ers team that took Arizona to OT earlier this year suggests that Tate and his Cardinals teammates aren't going to take this game lightly at all, and with Arizona's playoff aspirations arguably on the line during the next few weeks, this is an absolute must-have game for Arizona.
Flipping ATS and O/U results in division rematch games in the NFL is something I'm sure you've heard me talk about before, and although Arizona did win that first meeting in OT, they failed to cover the number. That shouldn't be the case this week as the well-rested Cardinals take full advantage of a 49ers team in the middle of an identity shift just looking to find some stability at QB.
Arizona is 5-0 ATS after getting blanked the last five times it's happened, and you've got to like taking teams off a bye when their last outing was disastrous. There is no worry about strong momentum being broken with the time off, and all that extra time in this case helped the Cardinals assess their plan for the rest of the year and put in a good week of practice to see if they can turn 2017 around.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
NFL notebook: Texans QB Watson tears ACL in practice
November 2, 2017
Houston Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson tore the ACL in his right knee during Thursday's practice and will miss the rest of the season. The Houston Chronicle confirmed the original report by NFL Media.
The injury occurred on what was described to the Chronicle as "a routine play," running a toss-sweep in a non-contact drill.
Watson was added to the injury report as limited and because he didn't appear to be in much discomfort, it wasn't considered serious. However, an MRI exam revealed the tear, and Watson will undergo surgery at some point in the near future.
Watson had just been named NFL Offensive Player of the Month and AFC Offensive Rookie of the Month for October when he had 1,171 yards passing with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also rushed for 145 yards on 21 attempts with a touchdown. He became the first rookie quarterback in league history to be named player of the month.
He is currently tied with Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz for the league lead with 19 touchdown passes and his 103.0 passer rating ranks fifth in the NFL.
--Andrew Luck's season is over before it officially began as the Indianapolis Colts announced that they placed the quarterback on injured reserve.
Luck has been sidelined due to soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder. The soreness prompted the team to shut down the 28-year-old two weeks ago after he finally returned to practice on Oct. 4.
Luck lamented the end result of what is now a lost season for him.
--DeMarco Murray has his most productive season in 2014 when he was a member of the Dallas Cowboys, but the Tennessee Titans running back is certainly glad he didn't get traded back to Dallas prior to Tuesday's trading deadline.
Speculation fueled by the restoration of Ezekiel Elliott's six-game suspension had Murray being a target by the Cowboys. He understood the rationale but was glad the deadline passed without a transaction.
Murray led the AFC with 1,287 rushing yards last season. It was third 1,000-yard season, topped by the NFL-leading 1,845 he gained for the Cowboys in 2014.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
The ‘over’ produced an 8-5 mark last week and outside of one result, it’s fair to say the outcomes were clear-cut. For those bettors on the ‘under’ in the Redskins-Cowboys (46 ½) game, please accept our apologies. The late pick-six touchdown is never tough to stomach but for the individuals who cashed Dallas-Over tickets, congrats! Through eight weeks of the NFL regular season, the ‘over’ holds a 61-57-1 record.
Line Moves
Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 9 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.
Atlanta at Carolina: 44 to 42 ½
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: 50 to 52
Indianapolis at Houston: 48 to 46 (Watson Injury)
Kansas City at Dallas: 48 ½ to 53 ½
Dealing with the status of players has been unpredictable this season and we’re dealing with more this weekend. The recent injury to Houston quarterback DeShaun Watson had books scrambling on Thursday for their matchup at home to Indianapolis. Despite the rookie’s absence, the total didn’t take that much of a fall.
“Certainly, Indy’s poor defense is always a factor in the total, but it’s not as if this offense is just humming along. And now you’ve got the Tom Savage situation, which certainly handicaps what Houston can do offensively. I do think this number will come down some before kickoff, but 45 might be the floor,” said Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.
The other late-breaking news this week came out of Dallas on Friday morning with running back Ezekiel Elliott being allowed to play after he was expected to start serving his six-game suspension.
Cooley added, “I think this is the biggest total move of the NFL season, and it’s shocking to see a number move this much at this point of the season. Both the sharps and squares have aligned, and it’s created a huge liability. I know (or hope) we’ll see this come back down at some point, but it won’t be enough to offset the exposure we have.”
Dallas has watched the ‘over’ cash in its last four games and the club is averaging 33.5 points per game during this span. Kansas City has been a solid ‘over’ bet (5-2-1) this season but make a note that all of the tickets going to the high side took place in games under the lights. This will be the highest total posted in a Chiefs game this season.
Visiting High
Last week, I touched on some home-away trends and Week 9 will feature four teams taking perfect ‘over’ records on the road.
Colts (4-0) – Indy visits Houston. The Colts own the worst scoring defense (30.8 PPG) in the league and the units has been worse on the road (38 PPG).
Rams (3-0) – Los Angeles visits the N.Y. Giants. The Rams are averaging 34.3 PPG outside of California and they posted 33 in a home game played overseas from London.
Redskins (3-0) – Washington visits Seattle. The Redskins are averaging 23.3 PPG in their last three road games vs. teams from the AFC and NFC West Divisions, which includes a 27-point effort at the Rams in Week 2.
Buccaneers (3-0) – Tampa Bay visits New Orleans. The Bucs scoring defense (34 PPG) is the second worst on the road and they are dead last in yards per play allowed (6.9) away from home.
Road System
I touched on a solid total angle that I’ve been following for seasons in Week 6 and it connected. It’s live again in Week 9 with not one but two matchups. What’s the system?
Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game
In Week 6, San Francisco was playing its third straight road game when it visited Washington. The Redskins won 26-24 and the ‘over’ (46 ½) connected thanks to a late surge. A win is a win, right?
Including that result, this system has watched the ‘over’ go 42-20 (68%) the last 12 seasons.
The two matchups that fit this week are listed below:
Denver at Philadelphia
Atlanta at Carolina
Early Vacation?
I really enjoy following seasonal total trends and my colleague Matt found a great one to follow this year which focuses on games with teams playing before their ‘bye’ week. Through eight weeks, 22 teams have had their bye in the NFL regular season.
Based on our numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 16-6 (73%) in their games before the bye. Keep in mind that we’re double-counting results, so the Patriots-Chargers ‘under’ last week resulted in a 2-0 mark to the low side since both teams fit the system. At the same time, the ‘over’ result in London last Sunday between the Browns and Vikings was a 2-0 ‘over’ result. The other games that went ‘under’ last week were never in doubt as the Bears and Steelers helped the cause. For those of you a little confused, all six of those teams just mentioned are not playing in Week 9.
The four games that would fit this angle in Week 9 would include matchups featuring Kansas City, Oakland, Philadelphia and Baltimore since they’re all on ‘bye’ in Week 10.
For those keeping track, teams playing with rest this season have watched the ‘over’ go 6-4 in their following games. We have six teams coming off the bye this week - Green Bay, Tennessee, L.A. Rams, N.Y. Giants, Arizona and Jacksonville.
Divisional Contests
The ‘over’ went 2-1 in these head-to-head matchups last week and the ‘under’ is 23-11 overall this season in divisional contests. The two games that went high were certainly helped with interceptions, especially the Cowboys-Redskins outcome. In last week’s piece, I mentioned that you might want to look at a vice versa angle in these divisional rematch games. The opposite outcome started out 2-0 and this past Thursday’s game between the Jets and Bills went ‘over’ after the pair played to the ‘under’ in their first meeting.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The ‘under’ is on a 4-2 run in this series and the two ‘over’ tickets occurred at the Superdome. Tampa Bay has had success playing in the ‘Big Easy’ with the offense posting 24, 26 and 31 points in their last three visits. I don’t want to discredit the Saints defense (20.7 PPG) but they’ve only faced two legit quarterbacks this season (Brady, Stafford). In those games, New Orleans gave up 36 and 38 points. Bucs QB Jameis Winston isn’t in that class but he’s certainly better than Brett Hundley and Mitch Trubisky. New Orleans has watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 at home this season, with the lone ‘under’ hitting last Sunday versus the aforementioned rookie on the Bears.
Atlanta at Carolina: The ‘over’ went 2-0 between the pair last season as the Falcons torched the Panthers for 33 and 48 points. From what we’ve seen from both teams offensively this season, it’s hard to imagine either club getting in that neighborhood on Sunday. The oddsmakers agree and this is the lowest total (42 ½) between the pair since they met in 2011 when Jimmy Clausen was playing QB for Carolina.
Indianapolis at Houston: Even though this game will be played with backup QBs on the field, the recent trend in this series could have you leaning high. Since 2013, the total has gone 4-4 between the pair but the ‘over’ is 4-0 in Houston while the ‘under’ has produced a 4-0 mark in the games play at Indianapolis.
Arizona at San Francisco: This is the only rematch game this week and like the matchup above, it’s featuring a pair of backup QBs (Drew Stanton vs. C.J. Beathard). Arizona defeated San Francisco 18-15 in Week 4 at home and the ‘under’ (43 ½) connected even though there were 10 scores (9 FGs, 1 TD) in the game. The 49ers have seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 at Levi’s Stadium and they’ve helped those results with the worst scoring defense at home (34.7 PPG) this season.
Detroit at Green Bay: (See Below)
Under the Lights
The ‘over’ went 2-1 in Week 8 and the high side has gone 16-10 (62%) this season, which includes this past Thursday’s result between the Bills and Jets. Make a note that TNF (4-0) and MNF (3-0) have been streaking high lately, while the SNF (3-0) is on a run to the low side.
Oakland at Miami: Sticking with the ‘under’ trend just mentioned on Sunday Night, I believe that could be a look again or you might want to pass. The Raiders have been very hard to figure out offensively this season and they’ve scored 10, 10 and 14 in their last three road games. Even worse offensively is Miami, who is ranked last in scoring (13.1), total yards (252.4) and yards per play (4.1). The defense was playing great, but the Dolphins have surrendered 28 and 40 the past two weeks.
Detroit at Green Bay: This is another game where you might want to take the night off, find something else to do productively for three hours. For what it’s worth, the ‘over’ is on a 3-0 run in this series but that was with Aaron Rodgers at QB for Green Bay. Make a note that he accounted for 11 total TDs in those games. The Lions defense looked good in their 20-15 loss at home last Sunday to Pittsburgh and the unit has been better on the road this season. If you’re looking for an angle, Green Bay playing off rest has been a great wager. Since Mike McCarthy became the Packers head coach in 2006, Green Bay has gone 9-2 off the bye and the ‘under’ has gone 8-3 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
Even though I was on the wrong side of the Texans-Seahawks shootout, I could’ve went 3-1 with a couple breaks but in hindsight I could’ve easily been 0-4. The bankroll ($440) is approaching a five-unit deficit as we’ve reached the middle of the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Tampa Bay-New Orleans 52
Best Under: Baltimore-Tennessee 43
Best Team Total: Over 17 ½ Denver Broncos
Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over 43 ½ Tampa Bay-New Orleans
Under 61 Kansas City-Dallas
Under 52 ½ Oakland-Miami
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
NFL notebook: Chiefs activate LB Hali from PUP list
November 4, 2017
The Kansas City Chiefs activated linebacker Tamba Hali from the physically unable to perform list and added him to the active roster, the team announced Saturday.
It is not known if Hali will play in Sunday's game against the host Dallas Cowboys (4-3). Hali could aid the Chiefs (6-2) with fellow linebacker Dee Ford being ruled out for the contest after sustaining a back injury in Monday's 29-19 win against Denver.
Hali, who has been working his way back from knee injuries, returned to practice Friday for the first time since the end of last season.
The 34-year-old Hali has 89.5 career sacks, which is tied for 44th on the NFL's all-time list. He had 34 tackles and 3.5 sacks while playing in all 16 games last season.
--Washington Redskins wide receiver Jamison Crowder has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Seattle Seahawks, the team announced.
Crowder, who is nursing a hamstring injury, did not travel with the team to the Pacific Northwest.
Crowder, who has yet to record a touchdown this season, has 28 receptions for 272 yards in seven games for the Redskins (3-4). The 24-year-old is coming off a career season in which he reeled in 67 catches for 847 yards and seven scores.
--The Indianapolis Colts ruled out cornerback Vontae Davis for Sunday's game against the Houston Texans for a non-injury related issue.
The Colts announced that Davis will not make the trip to Houston. The team did not provide additional details.
The 29-year-old two-time Pro Bowler was not listed on the injury report this week. The Colts tried to trade Davis, whose contract is up after the season, at the deadline this week but found no takers, sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter.
--The Cincinnati Bengals signed free agent kicker Marshall Koehn as insurance, not taking a chance for Sunday's road game against the Jacksonville Jaguars with kicker Randy Bullock questionable due to a strained back.
In a corresponding move, the Bengals waived backup safety Derron Smith. Smith has not played in the last four games with an ankle injury after performing largely on special teams in 31 of the previous 35 games.
Koehn, 25, signed with Miami as a college free agent in 2016, playing in three of the Dolphins' preseason games before being waived. He converted both of his field-goal attempts and his lone extra-point attempt with the Dolphins.
--The Buffalo Bills signed veteran running back Travaris Cadet after placing running back Taiwan Jones on injured reserve with a broken arm.
Jones suffered the injury to his left arm in a scramble for a fourth-quarter onside kick during Thursday night's 34-21 loss to the New York Jets.
Cadet, 28, played three games earlier this season for the Jets, catching three passes for 26 yards. He also had one carry for 3 yards and was released on Oct. 24.
--The New York Giants placed center Weston Richburg on injured reserve with a concussion, ending his season.
The 26-year-old fourth-year player was replaced on the active roster by cornerback Tim Scott, who was promoted from the practice squad.
Richburg has not played since suffering a concussion in Week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Oct. 1. On Friday, Richburg was declared out for Sunday's home game at MetLife Stadium against the Los Angeles Rams.
--The San Francisco 49ers activated defensive lineman Ronald Blair III from injured reserve Saturday and promoted offensive lineman Darrell Williams Jr. to the active roster from the team's practice squad.
The 6-foot-4, 270-pound Blair appeared in all 16 games as a rookie last season, finishing with 18 tackles and three sacks. He was placed on IR on Sept. 3 with a groin injury.
The 6-6, 310-pound Williams signed with the 49ers as an undrafted rookie free agent out of Western Kentucky University on May 4. He was released on Sept. 2 and signed to the practice squad the following day.
In addition, the 49ers officially placed wide receiver Pierre Garcon on injured reserve with a non-displaced fracture in his neck and released offensive lineman Bryce Harris.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
The ‘over’ produced an 8-5 mark last week and outside of one result, it’s fair to say the outcomes were clear-cut. For those bettors on the ‘under’ in the Redskins-Cowboys (46 ½) game, please accept our apologies. The late pick-six touchdown is never tough to stomach but for the individuals who cashed Dallas-Over tickets, congrats! Through eight weeks of the NFL regular season, the ‘over’ holds a 61-57-1 record.
Line Moves
Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 9 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.
Atlanta at Carolina: 44 to 42 ½
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: 50 to 52
Indianapolis at Houston: 48 to 46 (Watson Injury)
Kansas City at Dallas: 48 ½ to 53 ½
Dealing with the status of players has been unpredictable this season and we’re dealing with more this weekend. The recent injury to Houston quarterback DeShaun Watson had books scrambling on Thursday for their matchup at home to Indianapolis. Despite the rookie’s absence, the total didn’t take that much of a fall.
“Certainly, Indy’s poor defense is always a factor in the total, but it’s not as if this offense is just humming along. And now you’ve got the Tom Savage situation, which certainly handicaps what Houston can do offensively. I do think this number will come down some before kickoff, but 45 might be the floor,” said Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.
The other late-breaking news this week came out of Dallas on Friday morning with running back Ezekiel Elliott being allowed to play after he was expected to start serving his six-game suspension.
Cooley added, “I think this is the biggest total move of the NFL season, and it’s shocking to see a number move this much at this point of the season. Both the sharps and squares have aligned, and it’s created a huge liability. I know (or hope) we’ll see this come back down at some point, but it won’t be enough to offset the exposure we have.”
Dallas has watched the ‘over’ cash in its last four games and the club is averaging 33.5 points per game during this span. Kansas City has been a solid ‘over’ bet (5-2-1) this season but make a note that all of the tickets going to the high side took place in games under the lights. This will be the highest total posted in a Chiefs game this season.
Visiting High
Last week, I touched on some home-away trends and Week 9 will feature four teams taking perfect ‘over’ records on the road.
Colts (4-0) – Indy visits Houston. The Colts own the worst scoring defense (30.8 PPG) in the league and the units has been worse on the road (38 PPG).
Rams (3-0) – Los Angeles visits the N.Y. Giants. The Rams are averaging 34.3 PPG outside of California and they posted 33 in a home game played overseas from London.
Redskins (3-0) – Washington visits Seattle. The Redskins are averaging 23.3 PPG in their last three road games vs. teams from the AFC and NFC West Divisions, which includes a 27-point effort at the Rams in Week 2.
Buccaneers (3-0) – Tampa Bay visits New Orleans. The Bucs scoring defense (34 PPG) is the second worst on the road and they are dead last in yards per play allowed (6.9) away from home.
Road System
I touched on a solid total angle that I’ve been following for seasons in Week 6 and it connected. It’s live again in Week 9 with not one but two matchups. What’s the system?
Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game
In Week 6, San Francisco was playing its third straight road game when it visited Washington. The Redskins won 26-24 and the ‘over’ (46 ½) connected thanks to a late surge. A win is a win, right?
Including that result, this system has watched the ‘over’ go 42-20 (68%) the last 12 seasons.
The two matchups that fit this week are listed below:
Denver at Philadelphia
Atlanta at Carolina
Early Vacation?
I really enjoy following seasonal total trends and my colleague Matt found a great one to follow this year which focuses on games with teams playing before their ‘bye’ week. Through eight weeks, 22 teams have had their bye in the NFL regular season.
Based on our numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 16-6 (73%) in their games before the bye. Keep in mind that we’re double-counting results, so the Patriots-Chargers ‘under’ last week resulted in a 2-0 mark to the low side since both teams fit the system. At the same time, the ‘over’ result in London last Sunday between the Browns and Vikings was a 2-0 ‘over’ result. The other games that went ‘under’ last week were never in doubt as the Bears and Steelers helped the cause. For those of you a little confused, all six of those teams just mentioned are not playing in Week 9.
The four games that would fit this angle in Week 9 would include matchups featuring Kansas City, Oakland, Philadelphia and Baltimore since they’re all on ‘bye’ in Week 10.
For those keeping track, teams playing with rest this season have watched the ‘over’ go 6-4 in their following games. We have six teams coming off the bye this week - Green Bay, Tennessee, L.A. Rams, N.Y. Giants, Arizona and Jacksonville.
Divisional Contests
The ‘over’ went 2-1 in these head-to-head matchups last week and the ‘under’ is 23-11 overall this season in divisional contests. The two games that went high were certainly helped with interceptions, especially the Cowboys-Redskins outcome. In last week’s piece, I mentioned that you might want to look at a vice versa angle in these divisional rematch games. The opposite outcome started out 2-0 and this past Thursday’s game between the Jets and Bills went ‘over’ after the pair played to the ‘under’ in their first meeting.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The ‘under’ is on a 4-2 run in this series and the two ‘over’ tickets occurred at the Superdome. Tampa Bay has had success playing in the ‘Big Easy’ with the offense posting 24, 26 and 31 points in their last three visits. I don’t want to discredit the Saints defense (20.7 PPG) but they’ve only faced two legit quarterbacks this season (Brady, Stafford). In those games, New Orleans gave up 36 and 38 points. Bucs QB Jameis Winston isn’t in that class but he’s certainly better than Brett Hundley and Mitch Trubisky. New Orleans has watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 at home this season, with the lone ‘under’ hitting last Sunday versus the aforementioned rookie on the Bears.
Atlanta at Carolina: The ‘over’ went 2-0 between the pair last season as the Falcons torched the Panthers for 33 and 48 points. From what we’ve seen from both teams offensively this season, it’s hard to imagine either club getting in that neighborhood on Sunday. The oddsmakers agree and this is the lowest total (42 ½) between the pair since they met in 2011 when Jimmy Clausen was playing QB for Carolina.
Indianapolis at Houston: Even though this game will be played with backup QBs on the field, the recent trend in this series could have you leaning high. Since 2013, the total has gone 4-4 between the pair but the ‘over’ is 4-0 in Houston while the ‘under’ has produced a 4-0 mark in the games play at Indianapolis.
Arizona at San Francisco: This is the only rematch game this week and like the matchup above, it’s featuring a pair of backup QBs (Drew Stanton vs. C.J. Beathard). Arizona defeated San Francisco 18-15 in Week 4 at home and the ‘under’ (43 ½) connected even though there were 10 scores (9 FGs, 1 TD) in the game. The 49ers have seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 at Levi’s Stadium and they’ve helped those results with the worst scoring defense at home (34.7 PPG) this season.
Detroit at Green Bay: (See Below)
Under the Lights
The ‘over’ went 2-1 in Week 8 and the high side has gone 16-10 (62%) this season, which includes this past Thursday’s result between the Bills and Jets. Make a note that TNF (4-0) and MNF (3-0) have been streaking high lately, while the SNF (3-0) is on a run to the low side.
Oakland at Miami: Sticking with the ‘under’ trend just mentioned on Sunday Night, I believe that could be a look again or you might want to pass. The Raiders have been very hard to figure out offensively this season and they’ve scored 10, 10 and 14 in their last three road games. Even worse offensively is Miami, who is ranked last in scoring (13.1), total yards (252.4) and yards per play (4.1). The defense was playing great, but the Dolphins have surrendered 28 and 40 the past two weeks.
Detroit at Green Bay: This is another game where you might want to take the night off, find something else to do productively for three hours. For what it’s worth, the ‘over’ is on a 3-0 run in this series but that was with Aaron Rodgers at QB for Green Bay. Make a note that he accounted for 11 total TDs in those games. The Lions defense looked good in their 20-15 loss at home last Sunday to Pittsburgh and the unit has been better on the road this season. If you’re looking for an angle, Green Bay playing off rest has been a great wager. Since Mike McCarthy became the Packers head coach in 2006, Green Bay has gone 9-2 off the bye and the ‘under’ has gone 8-3 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
Even though I was on the wrong side of the Texans-Seahawks shootout, I could’ve went 3-1 with a couple breaks but in hindsight I could’ve easily been 0-4. The bankroll ($440) is approaching a five-unit deficit as we’ve reached the middle of the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Tampa Bay-New Orleans 52
Best Under: Baltimore-Tennessee 43
Best Team Total: Over 17 ½ Denver Broncos
Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over 43 ½ Tampa Bay-New Orleans
Under 61 Kansas City-Dallas
Under 52 ½ Oakland-Miami
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.
Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.
The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.
This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.
Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.
Week 8 Record: 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS
Overall Record: 25-23 SU, 21-26-1 ATS
Broncos at Eagles (-7 ½, 43) – 1:00 PM EST
Denver
Record: 3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1
The Broncos have fallen apart following a 3-1 start by dropping three straight games, while scoring 19 points or less in five consecutive contests. Denver has pulled the plug on quarterback Trevor Siemian following Monday night’s 29-19 setback at Kansas City, as Brock Osweiler is back in the saddle for the Broncos. Osweiler last started for Denver in the Super Bowl winning season of 2015 before signing with the Texans. Denver is winless in three road games, while losing seven of its past nine contests away from Sports Authority Field.
Philadelphia
Record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1
The Eagles keep rolling following a 33-10 rout of the winless 49ers to pick up their sixth consecutive victory. Philadelphia has covered in five straight games, while owning a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record at Lincoln Financial Field this season. Quarterback Carson Wentz has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four straight games, while busting the 28-point mark in each of those victories. The Eagles are hosting the Broncos for the first time since 2009 when Philadelphia edged Denver, 30-27 as seven-point favorites.
Best Bet: Broncos +7 ½
Rams (-3 ½, 42) at Giants – 1:00 PM EST
Los Angeles
Record: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1
The Rams return from the bye week fresh off a 33-0 shutout of the Cardinals in London back in Week 7 to pick up their fifth win of the season. Last season, Los Angeles finished 4-12, so this team has already exceeded their win total from 2016 as their next two opponents are currently below the .500 mark (Giants and Texans). The Rams have stepped up defensively of late by allowing 33 points in their last three games, while finishing off a three-game stretch away from the Coliseum.
New York
Record: 1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1
The Giants are also off their bye week, but New York couldn’t put together enough offense to beat Seattle in a 24-7 setback two weeks ago. New York is in a stretch of three consecutive games against NFC West opponents (at San Francisco next week), as the Giants beat the Rams last season in London, 17-10, the fourth straight win in the series since 2008. The Giants seek their first home victory following an 0-3 SU/ATS start at Met Life Stadium after closing last season with six straight wins in New Jersey.
Best Bet: Rams -3 ½
Bengals at Jaguars (-5 ½, 39) – 1:00 PM EST
Cincinnati
Record: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1
It hasn’t been a pretty start to the season for Cincinnati, but the Bengals have surged of late by winning three of their past four games to pull within one game of .500. Granted, two of those wins have come against Cleveland and Indianapolis, but the Bengals will take this stretch over the 0-3 start to the season. In last Sunday’s one-point win over the Colts, the Bengals needed a 16-yard interception return for a touchdown by Carlos Dunlap in the fourth quarter to deny Indianapolis its first road victory of the season.
Jacksonville
Record: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1
Jacksonville is the only team in the league to own this distinction, alternating SU/ATS wins and losses through the first seven weeks. The Jaguars are coming off a 27-0 shutout of the Colts in Week 7 to easily cash as three-point favorites, while limiting an opponent to less than 10 points for the fourth time this season. Jacksonville will try to get on track at home, where it is 0-2 SU/ATS at EverBank Field, and owns a 1-10 record the past 11 home contests since 2015.
Best Bet: Bengals +5 ½
Falcons (-1, 43 ½) at Panthers – 1:00 PM EST
Atlanta
Record: 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1
Atlanta snapped a three-game skid to avoid falling below .500 in last Sunday’s 25-20 victory over the Jets. The Falcons failed to cover for the fourth straight week, but the offense finally busted out as Matt Ryan tossed a pair of touchdown passes, while the ground game racked up 140 yards. Atlanta has yet to play an NFC South opponent this season, as the Falcons compiled a 5-1 division record last season, including a sweep of the Panthers.
Carolina
Record: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1
The Panthers seem like a sinking ship in spite of a 5-3 record as top target Kelvin Benjamin was dealt to the Bills this week. Carolina ended a two-game losing streak with a 17-3 triumph at Tampa Bay to improve to 4-1 on the road. The Panthers need to improve their home mark, which sits at 1-2 after losing to the Saints and Eagles at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina owns a perfect 3-0 ATS mark in the underdog role, while going 6-2 ATS when receiving points since the start of 2016.
Best Bet: Falcons -1
Redskins at Seahawks (-7, 45) – 4:05 PM EST
Washington
Record: 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1
Things haven’t gone well for the Redskins since 2-1 start, who have lost three of their past four games with the lone victory coming against the winless 49ers by two points. Washington is in the midst of an 0-4 ATS streak, capped off by recent divisional losses to Philadelphia and Dallas. The Redskins have been lit up during this stretch by allowing 29, 24, 34, and 33 points, resulting in four consecutive OVERS. Washington makes its first trip to Seattle since 2011 when it beat the Seahawks, 23-17, but have lost the last two matchups at home in the 2012 playoffs and 2014 regular season.
Seattle
Record: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1
The Seahawks have rebounded from a 1-2 start by winning four straight games, highlighted by a thrilling 41-38 triumph over the Texans last Sunday. Seattle failed to cash as six-point favorites, but Russell Wilson rallied the Seahawks with a late touchdown pass to Jimmy Graham, finishing off a 452-yard, four touchdown performance. Even though Seattle’s defense allowed more points to Houston (38) than it had in its previous three victories (35), the Seahawks improved to 11-1 in their past 12 games at CenturyLink Field.
Best Bet: Redskins +7
Chiefs at Cowboys (-1, 51 ½) – 4:25 PM EST
Kansas City
Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1
The Chiefs put their brief two-game losing streak behind them in Monday’s 29-19 home victory over the Broncos as seven-point favorites. Kansas City was outgained for the third straight game, but the Chiefs improved to 2-1 in the AFC West and 3-1 SU/ATS at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs started 3-0 on the road, including impressive showings at New England and Houston before a last-second loss at Oakland in Week 7. Kansas City heads to Dallas for the first time since 2005, while beating the Cowboys in their last matchup in 2013 by a 17-16 count as three-point favorites.
Dallas
Record: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1
The Cowboys were ready to begin life without star running back Ezekiel Elliott, but his six-game suspension is still on hold following another stay from the courts. Dallas returns home following a pair of road blowouts of San Francisco and Washington to improve to 3-1 away from AT&T Stadium. However, the Cowboys haven’t won at home since Week 1 against the Giants, as Dallas blew late leads in losses to Los Angeles and Green Bay in October. Dallas has registered four consecutive OVERS, while topping the 28-point mark in five straight games.
Best Bet: Chiefs +1
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
The Falcons have won and covered their last three meetings with the Panthers, but they come into Sunday's game at Carolina having failed to cover their last four games. In the past 24 hours, the Falcons went from being a one-point underdog to a two-point favorite.
"Yeah, that's one hot off the presses," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal of the move Friday morning. "We've had a couple plays on the Falcons this morning forcing the move."
William Hill's 107 sports books reported on Thursday night they had 76 percent of their cash wagered on the game siding with the Falcons.
"We had a couple of games bet early in the week that we're still kind of heavy on," said Simbal. "They (sharps) took the Raiders at -2.5 and -2.5 -120 forcing us to -3 and then they took the Chiefs when it was at pick 'em when it was thought that Ezekiel Elliott wouldn't play, but when we got word he would play -- I got it from Twitter, not a screen alert -- we immediately moved to -2 and we're at -2.5 now. We're in a pretty good spot with that game"
William Hill books had 82 percent of the cash wagered on the game taking the Chiefs with 65 percent of tickets written also being on the Chiefs. They also have 85 percent of the tickets written on the Raiders-Dolphins game on the Raiders. The Raiders are playing their second consecutive week on the east coast.
The Rams have been bet up to -4 at a few books in town, one of which isn't William Hill books who are still at -3.5 despite 98 percent of the cash wagered on the game being on the Rams. Simbal said his CG books took a few large bets on the Giants earlier in the week but Rams money is flowing in strong. The Giants have covered the past eight meetings with the Rams dating back to 2001.
"The big game for us on Sunday is us needing Washington at Seattle," Simbal said. "That's our big public game so far."
The Seahawks opened -7 at CG books and have been bet up to -7 -120. The Golden Nugget and Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook are dealing -7.5 EVEN.
Station Casinos sports books director Jason McCormick said his books deadliest four-team parlay on the day would be the public cashing in on the Eagles, Seahawks, Rams and Saints. The Eagles are seven-point home favorites against Brock Osweiler and the Broncos and the Saints are 7-point home favorites against the reeling Bucs who haven't covered a spread since their first game.
All the books across town will be hoping for positive results on Sunday after getting buried during the World Series with most of the damage coming from one 26-year-old bettor that rolled his winnings over in five of the World Series games. He went 5-0.
"We took more than a $1 million loss on the World Series," said Simbal, and when asked if it more than $2 million, he said "No, but close".
The guy that beat the CG books also beat several books along the strip, but not the $14 million some news outlets are reporting based on a weak source they found on Twitter. None of these news agencies followed up or verified with the actual books they were reporting on.
This bettor bet everywhere and took as much as the book would give him and he didn't care what the line was. MGM Resort books deal a 20 cent line and he was there betting all five games for as much as he could and rolled his winnings over. In the end he didn't even bet Game 7 to give the books a chance to get their money back. The losses throughout town totaled closer $3.8 million, and that's verified.
"We had a great baseball season up to the World Series, but we lost six figures on every game except Game 5," Simbal said. "And to top it off we lost a bunch on futures and the series prices with the Astros. We had a $300,000 bet on the Astros to win the series at +160. The entire series was awful for us and ruined what was a good season.
The big losses did some serious damage to the baseball season win percentage.
"We went from holding 2.3 percent in baseball on the season before the series and now were at 1.2 percent if that gives some perspective of how terrible the World Series was for us," said Simbal.
The Westgate SuperBook has the Los Angeles Dodgers as 5/1 favorites to win the 2018 World Series.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
Denver at Philadelphia: Turning away from Trevor Siemian after another poor performance on Monday night, the Broncos will hand the reins of their team back to Brock Osweiler. After a tour as the man in Houston, then as a trade chip and clipboard holder in Cleveland, the 6-foot-7 Osweiler will start a game for Denver for the first time since 2015. He's thrown four passes this season but does have plenty of experience, even throwing and running for a TD in a playoff win in January. Head coach Vance Joseph said there will be no scaling back of the playbook this week. A familiar face, WR Emmanuel Sanders, will try to make his life easier against a vulnerable Eagles pass defense. He's getting back to full strength from a nasty ankle injury that has also contributed to the Broncos' poor play, although probably not to the level of degree that the shoddy offensive line and turnover-prone Siemian have.
Since Week 3, Denver is a minus-10 in turnover differential, so count on a cautious approach against a fierce Eagles front seven. If weather conditions are sloppy on a potentially rainy day, the approach will be downright conservative and we could see a lot of Osweiler trying to keep drives alive with his feet.
The Eagles do have some of their own issues to be wary of. Carson Wentz's security blanket, TE Zach Ertz, won't play through a hamstring injury that kept him out of practices. He leads all tight ends in most statistical categories for a reason and will be missed against Denver's defense. RB Jay Ajayi is expected to play after joining the team from Miami, so we'll see how he fits in on a day where they should also be interested in establishing the run.
L.A. Rams at N.Y. Giants: L.A. is favored to improve to 6-2 at the halfway point, and is looking to become the first team to open 4-0 on the road this season. That doesn't even include the Rams' 33-0 win over Arizona in London, so it's clear that this group doesn't mind going out and performing from an opposing locker room. Currently the healthiest team in football, the Rams can't afford a misstep here since they've had one of the lightest schedules thus far, taking advantage to put themselves in this position.
New York will look to make the best of an awful season that could ulitmately cost Ben McAdoo his job given all the player backlash. Janoris Jenkins failed to show up for practice Tuesday and got suspended, continuing a pattern of defensive players angry with what's gone down this season. Meanwhile, the offensive line continues to be a mess that has hampered continuity, so it's not surprising that thhis line moved to 4.5 after opening 3.5.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Jameis Winston's shoulder is getting healthier, but there's no reason to expect to see him at 100 percent. He's in there because it's in his nature to try to lead his offense in a must-win situation, but the injury has affected his consistency even though he still gives the team a better chance here than Ryan Fitzapatrick. Turnovers could factor in as an issue since he'll be going up against a Saints defense that ranks first in the entire NFL in passing yards per game allowed, passer rating and interceptions since Week 3, forcing 11 turnovers.
Drew Brees is again leading the league in completion percentage and has flourished despite the Saints running the ball more with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, so we'll see if the Bucs defense manages to disrup their rhythm in spite of the absence of top corner Brett Grimes. It's going to be on the front seven to generate pressure on an offense that's humming in spite of constant reshuffling along the offensive line. Tampa Bay must generate pressure or it will add to that ugly number currently seeing them surrendering a 34-point average in road games.
Cincinnati at Jacksonville: The Jaguars woke up Sunday as a playoff team and could potentially be in sole possession of first place in the AFC North if they get help from the Ravens in Tennessee. Outside of the Texans' line move after Watson's injury news was announced, Jacksonville saw its number move most, going from a 3.5-point favorite to 6-6.5 once star rookie RB Leonard Fournette was upgraded to probable coming off last week's absence due to an ankle injury but was rendered out Sunday due to a violation of team rules. With Chris Ivory in good form, Jacksonville does have a back in place to take pressure off Blake Bortles and will have its offensive line back intact with Brandon Linder returning.
The Bengals survived at home against Indianapolis to win for the third time in four games but now open a crucial two-game stretch looking to prove that their offense can hold up against a Jags defense that is on a record sack pace. Andy Dalton has proven he can excel against a relentless pass rush before, but he's also melted down in the face of many, making him the x-factor here. Considering how strong Jacksonville has also been against the run, it's Dalton who must make life easier for rookie Joe Mixon and the run game, not vice versa.
Atlanta at Carolina: Cam Newton complained on Instagram that he'll "never understand" the move to part ways with WR Kelvin Benjamin, but he's also not moping about it. Expect Devin Funchess to get more balls thrown his way and Christian McCaffrey to also find himself more touches. While the trade is unlikely to have an immediate crippling impact, what matters most is that center Ryan Kalil remains out, which means there will be more pressure on Newton to execute while avoiding mistakes. The Panthers are 5-0 when he throws less than one pick and seemingly need him more than ever here since the loser here falls to third in the NFC West.
Matt Ryan has had a shaky season, but snapped a three-game losing streak in the driving rain in New York and looked more sure of himself than he has in weeks. He'll have to be sharp against the Panthers, who are simply a different defense when Luke Kuechly plays. He was cleared from concussion protocol and instantly dominated in the 17-3 win at Tampa Bay. Ryan will have RBs Davonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the mix in addition to a recieving corps that's at full strength, so he's hoping to reverse a trend that has seen the
Indianapolis at Houston: Tom Savage is 1-2 as Texans starter and couldn't take advantage of the opportunity to take the reins at the beginning of the season, getting pulled after a half against Jacksonville. He should have more time against the Colts than he did against the Jags, so we'll see if he can push the ball down the field, as was the original plan this season before rookie Deshaun Watson had to come in and do that. Given the abrupt nature of how this injury went down, Savage will have to find a way to get his offense on the same page quickly. That task was made easier by the news that CB Vontae Davis stayed behind in Indianapolis, which means a Colts defemse that surrenders over 30 points per game will be without their top defensive back.
The Colts come off a 24-23 loss at the Bengals and will be playing consecutive home games for the first time. After being shut out the previous week at home by Jacksonville, there were some strides made on offense, but Jacoby Brisett's pick-six proved costly. After opening as a 13-point underdog when it appeared Watson was playing, Houston is now a 7-point 'dog.
Baltimore at Tennessee: Although the Titans are currently vying for the AFC South lead, this could ultimately be an extremly important game as far as the wild card picture goes. They're looking for their third straight home win and host an equally vital game against the Titans next week, so this is a crucial stretch and they're fortunate to be getting healthier as it approaches. Only tight end Delanie Walker's status is much of a mystery, but QB Marcus Mariota is close to 100 percent and the expectation is that we'll see a version of him much closer to the one we saw last season due to a hamstring injury. Top pick Corey Davis, who found the end zone in Week 1 but hasn't been heard from since, is also deemed ready to go.
The Ravens will have Joe Flacco back off concussion protocol and was looking sharper of late, so the hope there is that he'll be able to put his veteran team in postion to capitalize on a schedule that sees them facing backups the next few weeks in Green Bay and against Houston. If Baltimore can get out of Nashville victorious it's possible it can go on a run. Over the past two weeks, the defense has gotten significantly healthier, though the offense still has major issues with RB Terrance West out, TE Maxx Williams back and only four "healthy" WRs available for this game in Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman and Chris Moore.
Arizona at San Francisco: The Cardinals are hoping to flush their brutal performance in London, but it's hard to say they can do that completely since a major issue followed them back across the pond with Carson Palmer sidelined basically the rest of the way. Although they've said the plan will be to feed Adrian Peterson, they're going to need Drew Stanton to be serviceable given the fact that the receiving corps is finally healthy for the first time. Larry Fitzgerald has terrorized the 49ers throughout his career, doing so even with Stanton under center.
The 49ers have acquired some hope in Jimmy Garroppolo, landing him from behind Tom Brady's shadow with Patriots. He won't play today and may not participate all season with the team in full tank mode. Left tackle Joe Staley, top receiver Pierre Garcon and rookie first-rounders Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster are among those ruled out for today, so ending a five-game losing streak at the hands of Arizona will be complicated and likely require help from Stanton. The Cards are a 2.5-point road favorite.
Washington at Seattle: Russell Wilson threw for a career-high 452 yards and four scores and has a healthy Jimmy Graham producing, so the addition of an All-Pro left tackle in Duane Brown could yield huge results since the team has been working with the equivalent of scotch tape and just got themselves a quality adhesive. Yes, Brown is starting immediately.
Washington QB Cousins won't have multiple starting offensive linemen blocking for him, so this is going to be a great test of his ability to work with what he's got in order to make plays against an elite, albeit, banged-up defense. The weather is likely to be a factor too since rain and/or snow flurries are expected, so there are a ton of variables in play here that will likely make this a game-time call or no-play.
The Redskins won't have Jordan Reed or Jamison Crowder to help Cousins create opportunities and will utilize the elusive Chris Thompson to try and create chunk plays against the Seahawks, who will be missing Earl Thomas due to a hamstring injury that hampered him last year as the Texans had their way with the Legion of Boom. Bradley McDougald will fill in, and Seattle will still have Kam Chancellor (ankle) and should field linebacker Bobby Wagner to try and limit Cousins' exploiting the middle of the field. DT Sheldon Richardson is a game-time decision with an oblique issue that has held him back of late.
Kansas City at Dallas: Ezekiel Elliott won another battle to play after it looked like the Cowboys would have to make do without him as late as Friday morning. Although his normal practice routine was interrupted, there's no reason to believe that will be detrimental or that Dallas would've been better off with its other two backs. Elliott has been impressive of late, playing himself back into shape, and the line shift that made Dallas a favorite in this matchup was justified given his three consecutive 100-plus-yard games. Since the bye, he's averaged five yards per carry.
The Chiefs will try to slow down a Dallas offense that has averaged 32.4 points over the past five, welcoming Tamba Hali back to aid the cause. With Dee Ford out due to a back issue, the timing is right, but it remains to be seen how rusty he is. Kansas City isn't likely to intercept Dak Prescott three times like they managed against Siemian, so they'll probably need to continue putting up the points, which makes the high total in this game (53.5) understandable. The Chiefs are averaging 36 points per away game and would be 4-0 if not for that memorable Thursday night loss in Oakland the last time they were on the road.
Oakland at Miami: Sunday nights are for saving your season if you're the Raiders. Heading into a bye week, their team will be far more likely to be enthused and engaged in preparing for a date with New England in Mexico if they're 4-5 than they would be at 3-6. Attempting to stave off a doomed mind set falls on the shoulders Derek Carr, who couldn't get his offense to do much of anything in their last Sunday night showing, a Sept. 24 27-10 loss at Washington where the receivers couldn't catch and the offensive line couldn't block. After a 2-0 start, the Raiders have dropped five of six, which includes an 0-3 mark on the road where they've been outscored 77-34. Moving on from the disappointment begins tonight. All that's left to be seen is which direction this group is going.
In swapping Ajayi for a fourth-rounder, the Dolphins are turning the page themselves. While it's true knee issues have kept him from having the impact he had in lifting the Dolphins last season, it's still a disappointment that the work Adam Gase put in leading the team to the playoffs was completely stunted. The '17 version remains magically above .500, but has an extremely difficult schedule over the second half and would do their chances a huge favor picking up a win here. That requires putting a 40-0 nightmare in Baltimore completely behind them, so Jay Cutler's return from broken ribs is a welcome sight. To be fair, that last sentence could definitely have ended with a question mark. He's slated to start instead of Matt Moore.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
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