The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

10/23/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/22/2017 11-13-2 45.83% -16.50
10/19/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/16/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/15/2017 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/09/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00

Totals............37 - 39 - 3....48.68%....-29.50


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

10/23/2017................1 - 0.................+5.00...........0 - 1.........-5.50.............-0.50

10/22/2017................2 - 3 - 2.............-6.50............4 - 6.........-13.00...........-19.50

10/19/2017.................0 - 0.................+0.00...........0 - 1...........-5.50...............-5.50

10/16/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00...........1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00

10/15/2017.................2 - 4.................-12.00...........3 - 1...........+9.50..............-2.50

10/12/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0 ..........+5.00..............+10.00

10/09/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00

10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50

10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00

10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50

10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00

Totals......................16 - 14 - 3............-+3.00...........15 - 16...........-13.00................- 10.00

Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 3..................................-15.00
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Thursday Night 2 Team Parlay........................1 - 0..................................+12.50

Thursday Night Game of the month................1 - 0..................................+5.00

Monday Night 2 Team Parlay..........................1 - 0 .................................+12.50

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*NFL Opening Line Report: Sharp action bloats Bucs spread vs. Carolina*


The Tampa Bay Buccaneers find new ways to lose each week. They've dropped three in a row but sharp bettors are backing Jameis Winston and Co. to cover against the Panthers.

Week 8 of the NFL season doesn’t have any truly eye-catching matchups, but a couple of NFC East rivals could spice things up a bit. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

*Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (no line)*

Dallas put a two-game losing skid in its rearview mirror, and in convincing fashion in Week 7. The Cowboys (3-3 SU and ATS) went to San Francisco as 6.5-point road favorites and left with a 40-10 rout to climb back to .500.

Washington (3-2 SU and ATS) still has Week 7 work to do, traveling to Philadelphia for Monday Night Football this evening. In Week 6, the Redskins beat the 49ers, too, albeit in a much tighter game, 26-24 as a 12-point home chalk.

Since Washington plays tonight, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on posting an opening line, though Cooley has an idea of where it will land.

“We’ll wait until Monday Night Football concludes, but look for this to surface around a pick ‘em,” he said. “No doubt we’ll get public money on the Cowboys, so if the sharps don’t get involved, expect the spread to trend in Dallas’ direction.”

*Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)*

Carolina just can’t seem to figure out what it is yet. Earlier this month, the Panthers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) won outright as an underdog at New England and at Detroit. Cam Newton & Co. then lost their next two games, including Sunday’s dismal 17-3 setback to Chicago as a 2.5-point road fave.

Tampa Bay won two of its first three games, but has since dropped three in a row. The Buccaneers (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) had to swallow a bitter pill Sunday at Buffalo, taking a 27-20 lead on a touchdown with 3:14 remaining, then giving up 10 points those final minutes to lose 30-27 catching 3 points.

“Two of the more mercurial teams in the league, so we opened with basically a pick ‘em,” Cooley said. “Early smart money has come in on the Bucs. We all know that the Panthers defense is a different unit without Luke Kuechly.”

That early sharp play on Tampa drove the line up to -2.5.

Kuechly, Carolina’s standout linebacker, sat out against the Bears and remains under concussion protocol.

*Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+3)*

Pittsburgh just might be getting back on track, winning and cashing the past two weeks. The Steelers (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) dropped Cincinnati 29-14 Sunday as a 4-point home favorite.

Detroit won three of its first four games, but enter this contest having lost two in a row. The Lions (3-3 SU and ATS) had a bye in Week 7 and probably needed it after giving up a 50-burger-plus in Week 6 – a 52-38 road loss to New Orleans as a 6-point pup.

“We’re definitely expecting the classic divide here, with sharps on Detroit and squares on the Steelers,” Cooley said. “Has Pittsburgh finally found its offensive footing? We’ll certainly find out against what seems to be a bleeding Lions defense.”

*Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-6)*

Seattle has won and cashed for bettors in its past three games, though surprisingly is still looking up at the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West. The Seahawks (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) made a successful cross-country trip in Week 7, dropping the New York Giants 24-7 as a 4-point chalk.

Houston, coming off its bye week, hopes to keep pace with Tennessee and upstart Jacksonville in the middling AFC South. Prior to that bye, the Texans (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) topped Cleveland 33-17 giving 7.5 points at home.

“Wiseguys are on the Texans early here,” Cooley said, alluding to the line dropping from -6 to -5.5 at Bookmaker.eu. “Houston obviously lost an edge on the defensive front (J.J. Watt injury), but it’s still sound, and the offense has more than made up for it. Outside of Andy Reid, nobody is calling better plays than Bill O’Brien right now. It will be a great test against Seattle’s D.”

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Close Calls - Week 7
October 24, 2017

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 7 of the NFL regular season.

Oakland Raiders (+3) 31, Kansas City Chiefs 30 (46): The Chiefs led 20-14 at halftime and 30-21 heading into the fourth quarter. Oakland settled for a short field goal early in the fourth quarter to trail by six and the Raiders got a big stop forcing a punt with the Chiefs just across midfield, however pinned deep, the Raiders had to punt the ball right back. Oakland’s defense forced another punt to get the ball back with just over two minutes remaining at its own 15-yard-line. The Raiders completed a big 4th-and-11 play just past midfield to stay alive, but only 33 seconds remained with the Raiders expending their final timeout.

Derek Carr hit Jared Cook for what was ruled a touchdown, but on review he was ruled short. The Raiders got the next snap off with just a few seconds remaining with a touchdown taken off the board for offensive pass interference. On the next play, Oakland’s pass through the end zone was bailed out with defensive holding call on the Chiefs. The same call was made on another incomplete pass to keep the Raiders alive. Oakland finally delivered with a strike to Michael Crabtree just inside the end zone with the extra-point securing the minor upset and flipping the spread results to open Week 7.

Minnesota Vikings (-5) 24, Baltimore Ravens 16 (37½): Minnesota led 9-6 at halftime and 18-9 through three quarters in a field goal fest. The Vikings added two more fourth quarter kicks to match a NFL record with nine combined field goals in the game and up 24-9 with three minutes to go as the favorite cover was safe. With a very low total, a Ravens touchdown has the potential to clear the ‘over’ and on the final play of the game Joe Flacco hit Chris Moore for a fourth down touchdown pass to surpass the total.

Miami Dolphins (-3) 31, New York Jets 28 (40): The Jets led 28-14 heading into the fourth quarter while the Dolphins had lost starting quarterback Jay Cutler. Backup Matt Moore who played well for the Dolphins late last season, came in and delivered two touchdown passes to tie the game with about six minutes remaining. After exchanging punts, the Jets got the ball back with less than a minute to play at their own 15-yard-line. Josh McCown made a critical mistake with a first down interception and the Dolphins stole a big division win with a 39-yard field goal in the final seconds, leading to a push for most.

Buffalo Bills (-3) 30, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 (46½): The Bills led 17-13 through three quarters to sit just past the favorite spread with the ‘under’ holding course even after a pair of third quarter touchdowns. Buffalo made it a seven-point advantage with a field goal but Jameis Winston connected with O.J. Howard for his second touchdown of the game. That score tied the game at 20-20 and Buffalo fumbled on its next possession. The Buccaneers took advantage with another Winston touchdown pass to lead by seven with just over three minutes remaining, hitting the ‘over’ in the process as well. Buffalo hasn’t been known for big plays but on first down the Bills connected for 44 yards with a 15-yard penalty tacked on. Two plays later the game was tied 27-27. This time, Tampa Bay had the untimely fumble on first down just ahead of the two-minute-warning. Buffalo ran out the clock and kicked a field goal with 14 seconds remaining for the win, though leaving bettors with a push.

New Orleans Saints (-4) 26, Green Bay Packers 17 (45½): The Packers still led 14-7 at halftime despite blowing an opportunity to add points just before the break. The Saints came back in the third quarter with a touchdown and a field goal, though missing an extra-point to lead by just two. The teams traded field goals and leads early in the fourth quarter with New Orleans leading 19-17 with about 10 minutes remaining. A penalty wiped out a strong kick return for the Packers and then on the punt another Green Bay penalty helped to give the Saints great field position. Drew Brees took advantage eventually getting into the end zone himself to extend the Saints lead past the road favorite spread under the five minute mark. Brett Hundley had avoided an interception in his first start until the most critical moment with a forced third down pass that sealed the win for the Saints with the game also staying just ‘under’.

Dallas Cowboys (-6½) 40, San Francisco 49ers 10 (47½): Ezekiel Elliott made the most of his chance to play this week scoring twice early in the fourth quarter. The rout was on as Elliott took a short pass 72 yards for his third score of the day early in the third quarter. While the spread result wasn’t in doubt, the total still was in play at 33-3 with Dallas missing an extra-point with Safety Jeff Heath kicking for the injured Dan Bailey. Dallas scored with about 11 minutes remaining after a turnover to lead 40-3 with certainly no need to try to add points. Rookie C.J. Beathard would survive an interception wiped out with a penalty and eventually called his own number for a touchdown with six minutes remaining to clear the ‘over’.

Seattle Seahawks (-4) 24, New York Giants 7 (39½): Seattle had a big edge in production, but they trailed 7-0 until getting a field goal in the final minute of the first half. The Giants scored on a 17-yard drive following a fumble and also managed to stop the Seahawks going for it on 4th-and-1 just outside of the end zone. More punts followed to start the second half before the Seahawks hit three decent gains in the passing game to lead 10-7 halfway through the third quarter, still short of the road favorite spread that fell throughout the week. New York missed a 47-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter and then Eli Manning had a costly fumble still down just three. Seattle scored on the next play to lead 17-7 and then added another touchdown just before the two-minute-warning to put the game away.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4½) 34, Washington Redskins 24 (48½): Washington was in control early in this game as the defense held Philadelphia to just 39 net yards on the first four Eagles drives, but back-to-back 15-yard penalties allowed the Eagles to get a field goal. In the final minutes before halftime, the Eagles put together a pair of 80-yard scoring drives with a 64-yard pass play for the first touchdown and a pass interference penalty on a key third down in the final minute handing the Eagles a touchdown instead of a field goal for a 17-10 edge at the break.

Philadelphia still led by seven heading into the fourth quarter to sit just past the home favorite spread, but the third down success for the Eagles continued with a pair of big conversions giving the Eagles another touchdown drive for a commanding 31-17 edge, putting the ‘over’ in great position as well. Washington had their first turnover of the game on the next drive handing the Eagles another field goal but the Redskins added a touchdown with just over three minutes remaining to climb back within 10. A missed field goal from the Eagles gave Washington a chance for a backdoor cover late, but a first down sack made the down and distance too much to reach as the Eagles cleared Week 7 as the league’s only one-loss team.

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Tech Trends - Week 8
October 24, 2017

THURSDAY, OCT. 26

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at BALTIMORE (CBS, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Dolphins “under” 5-1 TY after big “over” marks LY. Gase 7-3 vs. line last ten as reg.-season dog. Ravens 1-4 vs. line last five after quick break.
Tech Edge: Dolphins and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SUNDAY, OCT. 29

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MINNESOTA vs. CLEVELAND at Twickenham, London (NFL, 9:30 a.m. ET)
Brownies 6-18 vs. line last 24. Also “under” 11-4 last 15 since mid 2016.
Tech Edge: Vikings and "under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

CHICAGO at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Surging Saints on 4-game win and cover streak. Brees also “over” 18-7 last 25 at Superdome, Bears have covered three straight but their extended road mark is subpar (4-9-1 vs. spread away sicne midway in the 2015 campaign).
Tech Edge: “Over” and Saints, based on Saints “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at N.Y. JETS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs 5-1 as road chalk since LY (1-1 TY), also 10-2 vs. spread last 11 as visitor. Falcs “over” 18-7 since LY. Jets 7-3 as home dog since 2015.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on Falcs “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cam “over” 4-1 last five TY. Carolina 6-2 vs. line last four years in series.
Tech Edge: Panthers and “over,” based on Carolina trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Niners 6-3 last 9 vs. spread. Into last Monday, Eagles 8-3 vs. line at home since LY with Wentz. SF also “over” 4-1 last five away, Birds “over” 8-3-1 since late 2016.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders squeaked out KC win or would be staring at five SU and spread Ls in a row. Oakland just 1-2 vs. line away TY after 9-2 spread mark previous 11 on reg.-season road.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bills, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bengals “under” 23-10 last 33 since mid 2015, though Indy “over” 5-2 TY. Colts covers last four on road since late LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. CHARGERS at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bolts 2-0-1 as road dog TY, now 23-11-2 in role since 2012. Belichick dropped 3 of first 4 vs. line at home in 2017, and is now on an 8-2 “over” run.
Tech Edge: Chargers and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at SEATTLE (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Houston “over” four straight, also 4-1 last five vs. spread. Hawks “over” 10-5-1 last 16 at home.
Tech Edge: "Over,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at WASHINGTON (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cowboys 4-9 vs. spread last 13 since late 2016. Road team has covered last six in series, though Skins on 13-7 spread uptick since early 2016. Jay Gruden “over” 21-6 since late 2015 after ;last Monday vs. Eagles.
Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to Skins, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at DETROIT (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Steel “under” 6-1 TY, now “under" 22-8 since late 2015. Lions however “over” first three at home TY. If getting points, note Caldwell just 2-6 last 8 vs. spread at home in role.
Tech Edge: Slight to "under,” based on Steelers’ “totals” trends.

MONDAY, OCT. 30
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at KANSAS CITY (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Broncs swept LY by Chiefs for first time since 2000. Denver 2-6 vs. line last eight away and has lost and failed to cover three straight vs. Chiefs. KC now “over” 8-4-1 in reg. season since mid 2016. “Overs” 3-0-1 last four meetings.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and “over,” based on recent scores and “totals” trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Stats - Week 8
October 25, 2017

Stats don’t lie. People who interpret them do.

Let’s take a look at how teams are performing this season ‘Inside The Stats’.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

Here are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. This week includes:

College Football: Army, and Rutgers (200 yards)

NFL: Chicago Bears

PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS

Keeping up with our look at teams who have either dominated, or been dominated, In The Stats (ITS) this season, let’s turn to the teams that will potentially qualify on our ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ list when November rolls around.

From our sister statistical publicatio, here is a list of the “spotless” candidates and their respective ITS records in games played through October 9:

ITS dominators: Alabama 8-0, Central Florida 5-0, Georgia 7-0, Oklahoma 7-0, Oklahoma State 7-0, South Florida 7-0, and Wisconsin 7-0.

ITS virgins: East Carolina 0-7-1.

YES, RUSHING STILL MATTERS

The NFL has turned into a pass-happy league but the truth of the matter is running the football – or in this case stopping the run - still counts in college football. Consider: there are only six FBS teams are allowing less than 3 Yards Per Rush per game on the season. They are Alabama, Michigan State, Northern Illinois, Ohio State, TCU, and Troy.

Collectively these teams are 37-6 SU and 24-15-1 ATS in the season. Just saying.

LEAKING OIL

Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s Pennzoil favorites and their current ITS losing skein record.

College Football: Colorado 0-5, Indiana 0-3, Iowa 0-4, Kansas State 0-4, and Kentucky 0-5

NFL: Buffalo Bills 0-5

YOU GOTTA BE KIDDING

Washington Redskins QB Kirk Cousins is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in his career on weekdays. Remember that when the Skins face the New York Giants on Thanksgiving Day later this year.

STAT OF THE WEEK

From ESPN Stats & Info: For the first time in team history the New Orleans Saints have won 4 straight games immediately after starting the season 0-2.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL notebook: Steelers' Bryant demoted to scout team
October 25, 2017

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Martavis Bryant was demoted to the scout team on Wednesday and is expected to be inactive for Sunday night's game against the Detroit Lions.

The 25-year-old Bryant told reporters Wednesday he is not playing Sunday. When asked why, Bryant said, "Social media."

Bryant told reporters after Wednesday's practice he is frustrated.

Bryant was targeted twice and caught one pass for 3 yards during last Sunday's 29-14 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

--Out-of-work free agent quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who began the movement of NFL players protesting by kneeling during national anthem while he was playing for the San Francisco 49ers last year, is expected to be invited to the next meeting between owners and players.

The meeting is scheduled Tuesday in New York, but there is no confirmation whether Kaepernick will attend.

NFL spokesman Joe Lockhart said he expects Kaepernick will be invited, according to ESPN. The invitation would be extended by the players, not the league, Lockhart said.

--The Cleveland Browns are staying with rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer, naming him the starter for Sunday's game in London against the Minnesota Vikings.

Coach Hue Jackson announced that Kizer, who was benched in the second half after throwing two interceptions last Sunday against the Tennessee Titans, will make his second straight start.

Kizer was pulled for the second time in three games. Cody Kessler took his place in Sunday's 12-9 overtime loss to the Titans. Kizer also was benched in Week 5 for Kevin Hogan, who started the sixth game for the winless Browns.

--The Tampa Bay Buccaneers placed defensive end Noah Spence on injured reserve after he suffered another dislocated shoulder against the Buffalo Bills.

Spence, the Bucs' 2016 second-round draft pick, was injured in Sunday's 30-27 loss -- his fourth shoulder dislocation in the past two seasons, including two this year. The injury will require more surgery, the team announced.

The Buccaneers also signed defensive end Darryl Tapp and cornerback Deji Olatoye.

--The Seattle Seahawks added veteran defensive end Dwight Freeney to bolster their pass-rushing depth as the two sides agreed to terms on a one-year contract.

The 37-year-old Freeney spent the first 11 seasons of his career in Indianapolis, earning Pro Bowl honors seven times and first-team All-Pro honors three times.

Freeney was in Seattle on Tuesday to work out and take a physical for the Seahawks. He later tweeted: "Time to get loud, 12s. #GoHawks Seahawks."

--The Chicago Bears acquired wide receiver Dontrelle Inman from the Los Angeles Chargers for a conditional draft pick.

Chargers coach Anthony Lynn confirmed the trade, but did not reveal specifics. ESPN's Adam Schefter cited sources as saying that the conditional pick is a seventh-round selection in 2018 and will be based on Inman's production this season.

Inman has two receptions for nine yards in four games this season for Los Angeles, which also features fellow wideouts Keenan Allen, Travis Benjamin, Tyrell Williams and rookie Mike Williams.

--Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week for his four-touchdown passing performance in Monday night's win over the Washington Redskins.

The NFL also announced that Oakland Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper took the AFC offensive honor in Week 7 as he made 11 catches for 210 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 31-30 comeback win over the Kansas City Chiefs.

Chicago Bears safety Eddie Jackson was named the NFC Defensive Player of the Week after his 75-yard fumble return for a touchdown and 76-yard interception return for a score in the 17-3 win over the Carolina Panthers. Tennessee Titans safety Kevin Byard earned the AFC defensive award for his three-interception performance in the 12-9 win against the winless Cleveland Browns.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Best Bet
October 25, 2017

NFL Week 8 TNF Best Bet (CBS, 8:25 p.m. ET)

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

After three straight weeks of having some highly anticipated TNF games to begin the new week – New England/Tampa Week 5, Philadelphia/Carolina Week 6, and Kansas City/Oakland in Week 7 – it looks like Week 8 is back classified under one of those TNF games that could end up being extremely painful to watch.

Miami and Baltimore have been among the league's worst offenses all year long, and Baltimore is coming off a game where they didn't score a TD until the final seconds of garbage time. Will these two teams be able to put some points up on the board on a short week?

HeritageSports.eu Odds: Baltimore (-3); Total set at 37

Baltimore and Miami both rank in the bottom five of the league in adjusted net yards per play and both average fewer then 18 points per game on average. However, both teams have put up 20 or more points in two of their last three games, with Miami's offense being the most impressive last week in their fourth quarter comeback against the New York Jets.

Miami's 17-point outburst in the final frame was led by backup QB Matt Moore as he came in for a injured Jay Cutler who will once again be in street clothes this week. Moore was a guy this Dolphins organization didn't fully believe could handle the load of being a 16-game starter this year – hence the decision to pull Cutler out of retirement – but he actually may be the one more suited to run this Dolphins offense given his time spent in the system. We saw that in relief last Sunday, and Dolphins fans are hoping to see more of the same on a short week on Thursday night

Baltimore's offensive woes are more because the status quo really isn't working anymore, as QB Joe Flacco and his huge contract are becoming more and more of a burden to the organization. Flacco's 5 TD passes to his 8 INT's have really put this Ravens team behind the 8-ball at various times this year, and his 5.31 yards per attempt is good for last in the entire league of qualifying QB's.

If Baltimore has any ideas of seriously competing in the AFC North this year, Flacco's going to have to step up his play in a big way. Whether that's taking more shots downfield or reading defensive coverages better, Baltimore better find some answers in a hurry.

Things aren't likely to drastically change on a short week for the Ravens, but Miami's new-look attack with Matt Moore at the controls may force the Ravens to try. Moore's basically playing for his job at the moment, and should he be the guy that gets the Dolphins own offense out of the misery it's been all year, Cutler may end up being on the sideline even when he returns.

Last week's fourth quarter deficit did dictate Moore throw the ball more, but it was clear he had a good connection with his receivers and I expect that to continue this week. With Baltimore's defense being last against the run (145.3 yards allowed per game) a guy like RB Jay Ajayi could be in store for a huge day in this one and his success will open up things for Moore and Miami's aerial attack.

With this game having the common belief that it will be a boring, ugly TNF game with two bad offenses on a short week, I believe bucking that prevailing notion could prove to be how you cash a ticket here. This total of 37 is the lowest on the board for Week 8 and just like the previous two TNF games, I do believe we see this game sail 'over' the number. Both sides are aware of how putrid they've been on offense this year, and this national spotlight game is a chance for both to dispel those ideas to an extent.

Miami's first 'over' of the year came in last week's comeback win, but they are 9-4 O/U dating back to last year when coming off an outright victory, and 5-2 O/U after scoring 30+ points. Meanwhile, Baltimore is on a 4-1 O/U run after failing to cover the spread, and despite all their offensive woes, are still on a 4-1 O/U run this year entering Week 8. Turnovers, whether for or against, have been a big part of Baltimore games all year, and getting or giving up short fields is always something an 'over' bettor prefers.

So while the majority of bettors will see this matchup, look at the YTD stats for both offenses and conclude that these two teams will struggle to even reach 30 points on TNF, I'm taking the contrarian stance here and looking for this low total to actually be surpassed relatively easily. I've always liked to take the approach of playing 'overs' in games involving two bad offenses and 'unders' in games involving two high-powered offenses because their is inherent value built into those plays based on the lines and the common perception.

This game definitely falls into the former, and with Baltimore is 2-0 O/U in non-division AFC games already this year, and I believe they make it three in a row this week with both teams scoring in the 20's.

Best Bet: Over (37)

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s six-pack

— Astros 7, Dodgers 6 (11)— First game in MLB history with five extra-inning homers.

— If Alabama played Penn State for the national title today, they’d be a 9-point favorite.

— Tom Thibodeau went 255-139 as coach of the Bulls; why did they fire him? Bulls are 83-84 since they let him go.

— Rockets 105, 76ers 104— Eric Gordon hit a 3-pointer at buzzer.

— Warriors 117, Raptors 112— Golden State outscored Toronto 10-0 in last 2:00

— 34-year old Dustin Pedroia had knee surgery this week, is expected to be out seven months, meaning he’ll miss the start of next season.

********************

Thursday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

13) Nick Saban is making $11M this season, including $4M for what amounts to “a signing bonus”, making him the highest-paid college coach in America. Wow.

12) Most surprising thing to me on the list is that Arizona’s Rich Rodriguez is 5th-highest paid college football coach in the country, earning $5.6M this year.

Arizona is 41-31 under Rodriguez, 5-2 this year- they were 2-10 last year.

11) Chiefs’ RB Kareem Hunt lost a fumble on his first carry of the season in Foxboro; KC hasn’t turned the ball over since- they’re +7 in turnovers right now.

10) Atlanta Falcons led NFL in scoring LY, were #2 in yards gained- they won the NFC.

This year, Falcons are #16 in scoring, #7 in yards gained- they’re 3-3.

SI.com‘s Robert Klemko points this out: through six games in 2016, Matt Ryan was 14-of-23 on passes traveling more than 20 yards downfield. Through six games this season, he’s 4-of-21.

9) Courtney Lee plays for the Knicks; Tuesday, he said some players on the Knicks don’t know the plays and they need to pay attention more in practice.

This is professional basketball, the second week of a 6-month season. Oy.

8) Game 1 of the World Series took 2:28 to play, the shortest World Series game since 1992. I’d prefer a longer game with more action, but thats just me.

Game 2 was more what I had in mind…….

7) Who made USC’s football schedule? They don’t have any bye weeks- they have a week off after their last regular season game and the Pac-12 championship game, but they have to get there for that to be relevant.

Trojans are in a 3-way tie with Arizona/ASU in the Pac-12 South- their game at Arizona State this weekend is a big one. USC looked like a tired team last week at Notre Dame.

6) Wake Forest no longer allows guests into their football practices, because LY one of their own radio announcers was found out to be giving Wake’s plays out to future opponents, after the radio guy wasn’t retained as an assistant coach the year before.

Problem with that is this: often times, some of the guests at practices are people who donate a lot of money to the athletic department. Ticking them off isn’t good for the bottom line, but if an opponents gets part of your playbook, thats an even worse problem.

5) Mentioned yesterday how North Carolina’s senior PG Joel Berry broke his hand this week and will miss the start of the season. Turns out Berry punched a door after losing a video game he was playing with teammate Theo Pinson and a student manager. Not good.

4) Steelers’ WR JuJu Smith-Schuster had his bike stolen recently; I’m just amazed that an NFL player doesn’t have his driver’s license yet— he is taking the driver’s test soon.

If I ran the Steelers, wouldn’t want one of my players driving his bike on city streets— I’d take Smith-Schuster to DMV myself to get him his license, then get him an endorsement deal with a local car dealer, to get hm a safe ride to work every day.

3) MVP of the World Series gets the “Willie Mays Award” as MLB honors Mays, one of the best baseball players ever. Pretty cool award to win.

Some jackass wrote an article this week questioning if MLB did the right thing naming the award after Mays, who played in four World Series but didn’t hit that well in any of them, though his catch in CF in the ’54 Series is one of the best in WS history.

Mays hit 660 major league home runs, had a career on-base % of .384, led the NL in stolen bases four times. He was a great freakin’ player; he deserves to have an award named after him.

2) Former NBA commissioner David Stern spoke up for the NBA allowing “medical marijuana”, which means that marijuana basically will be legalized in the NBA, since every player has a sore knee or a sore back or SOMETHING that would allow him to smoke weed for medical reasons.

Stern was commissioner of the NBA for 30 years; his voice carries a lot of weight.

1) This is a somewhat small sample, but thru four games, Lonzo Ball’s plus/minus is -24; the Lakers are +6 when Lonzo is on the bench.

Plus/minus is the score of the game when that player is on the floor, so over long term, it is a telling stat. It can be misleading in small samples, so we’ll follow this as the year goes on.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Opening Line Report: Sharp action bloats Bucs spread vs. Carolina
Patrick Everson

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers find new ways to lose each week. They've dropped three in a row but sharp bettors are backing Jameis Winston and Co. to cover against the Panthers.

Week 8 of the NFL season doesn’t have any truly eye-catching matchups, but a couple of NFC East rivals could spice things up a bit. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (no line)

Dallas put a two-game losing skid in its rearview mirror, and in convincing fashion in Week 7. The Cowboys (3-3 SU and ATS) went to San Francisco as 6.5-point road favorites and left with a 40-10 rout to climb back to .500.

Washington (3-2 SU and ATS) still has Week 7 work to do, traveling to Philadelphia for Monday Night Football this evening. In Week 6, the Redskins beat the 49ers, too, albeit in a much tighter game, 26-24 as a 12-point home chalk.

Since Washington plays tonight, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on posting an opening line, though Cooley has an idea of where it will land.

“We’ll wait until Monday Night Football concludes, but look for this to surface around a pick ‘em,” he said. “No doubt we’ll get public money on the Cowboys, so if the sharps don’t get involved, expect the spread to trend in Dallas’ direction.”

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Carolina just can’t seem to figure out what it is yet. Earlier this month, the Panthers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) won outright as an underdog at New England and at Detroit. Cam Newton & Co. then lost their next two games, including Sunday’s dismal 17-3 setback to Chicago as a 2.5-point road fave.

Tampa Bay won two of its first three games, but has since dropped three in a row. The Buccaneers (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) had to swallow a bitter pill Sunday at Buffalo, taking a 27-20 lead on a touchdown with 3:14 remaining, then giving up 10 points those final minutes to lose 30-27 catching 3 points.

“Two of the more mercurial teams in the league, so we opened with basically a pick ‘em,” Cooley said. “Early smart money has come in on the Bucs. We all know that the Panthers defense is a different unit without Luke Kuechly.”

That early sharp play on Tampa drove the line up to -2.5.

Kuechly, Carolina’s standout linebacker, sat out against the Bears and remains under concussion protocol.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+3)

Pittsburgh just might be getting back on track, winning and cashing the past two weeks. The Steelers (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) dropped Cincinnati 29-14 Sunday as a 4-point home favorite.

Detroit won three of its first four games, but enter this contest having lost two in a row. The Lions (3-3 SU and ATS) had a bye in Week 7 and probably needed it after giving up a 50-burger-plus in Week 6 – a 52-38 road loss to New Orleans as a 6-point pup.

“We’re definitely expecting the classic divide here, with sharps on Detroit and squares on the Steelers,” Cooley said. “Has Pittsburgh finally found its offensive footing? We’ll certainly find out against what seems to be a bleeding Lions defense.”

Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

Seattle has won and cashed for bettors in its past three games, though surprisingly is still looking up at the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West. The Seahawks (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) made a successful cross-country trip in Week 7, dropping the New York Giants 24-7 as a 4-point chalk.

Houston, coming off its bye week, hopes to keep pace with Tennessee and upstart Jacksonville in the middling AFC South. Prior to that bye, the Texans (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) topped Cleveland 33-17 giving 7.5 points at home.

“Wiseguys are on the Texans early here,” Cooley said, alluding to the line dropping from -6 to -5.5 at Bookmaker.eu. “Houston obviously lost an edge on the defensive front (J.J. Watt injury), but it’s still sound, and the offense has more than made up for it. Outside of Andy Reid, nobody is calling better plays than Bill O’Brien right now. It will be a great test against Seattle’s D.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 8
Monty Andrews

The Bears, Packers and Ravens have gone a combined 13-for-45 on third downs during Minnesota's three-game winning streak. The Vikings' D should feast on the Browns in Week 8.

Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (+9.5, 37.5)
Vikings' third-down shutdown D vs. Browns' offensive struggles

The Cleveland Browns approach the midway point of the NFL's regular season still looking for their first victory - and Week 8 presents as big a challenge as they've faced all year as they welcome the vaunted Minnesota Vikings defense to town. Cleveland nearly came away with win No. 1 last week but ultimately fell short 12-9 in overtime - and it was yet another shoddy performance on third down that played a major role in the Browns remaining winless. They'll get no relief in that regard this week.

The Vikings have done plenty of things well this season en route to a 5-2 record and sole possession of top spot in an NFC North division that is completely up for grabs. And third-down defense has the centerpiece of the Vikings' defensive effort, with Minnesota allowing teams to score or extend drives on just 27.3 percent of their opportunities - the second-lowest rate in football. The Bears, Packers and Ravens have gone a combined 13-for-45 on third downs during Minnesota's three-game winning streak.

That run of dominance on third-down plays should continue against a Browns offense that can't seem to figure anything out. Cleveland is converting an abysmal 28.7 percent of third-down opportunities, the worst rate in football; going 3-for-13 on Sunday against the visiting Tennessee Titans cost the Browns their shot at a first victory. With the quarterback situation up in the air - yet again - for this weekend, look for Cleveland to struggle extending drives against a tough Minnesota defense.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 45.5)
Raiders' wretched rush attack vs. Bills' top-flight run D

Last week's last-second victory over the Kansas City Chiefs might have bought the Oakland Raiders some goodwill, but they'll need a much better effort if they hope to extend their fortunes this weekend in Buffalo. The Raiders rode a Michael Crabtree touchdown reception on the last play of the game to a 31-30 triumph over the Chiefs, but if they can't get their running game going, they'll face an uphill battle moving forward - and this will be a tough matchup to make inroads on the ground.

Oakland was forced to do without Marshawn Lynch after the veteran running back was ejected early in Thursday's thrilling victory. And while Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington fared well in his absence, the Raiders still mustered just 88 rushing yards on the evening. Acquiring Lynch was supposed to shore up the running game, but Oakland ranks 24th in rushing yards per game (92.9) and will need to find a way to be more reliant on the ground game in the future.

That future, however, might not start this week. The Bills own one of the most punishing run defenses in football, limiting opposing teams to 84.5 yards per game on the ground. That dominance was on full display in last week's 30-27 win over visiting Tampa Bay, as the Buccaneers mustered just 69 yards on 25 carries. Buffalo's 3.4 yards-per-carry-average against is the fourth-best rate among NFL defenses - and with Lynch suspended for Sunday's game, that rate could sink even lower.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2.5, OFF)
Cowboys' red-zone rampage vs. Redskins' defensive doldrums

The Cowboys had been scuffling going into last week's game in San Francisco, but they took out all of their early-season frustrations on the winless 49ers in a 40-10 rout. The Dallas defense still has a long way to go to become Super Bowl-calibre, but it's hard to argue with the assertion that the Cowboys' offense is already there. Dallas has been one of the most dangerous red-zone teams in the league, and will look to continue that downfield dominance against a Washington team struggling to prevent red-zone scores.

Dallas finished with a top-five red-zone touchdown rate last season and has picked up right where it left off, going into Week 8 ranked second in the league in red-zone visits resulting in six points (66.7 percent). Only the Green Bay Packers (73.9 percent) have been better - and with Aaron Rodgers on the shelf indefinitely, it shouldn't be long before the Cowboys own top spot. Ezekiel Elliott has been a major factor in this regard, tied for fourth in the NFL with four rushing touchdowns.

The Redskins' defense struggled all night long in a 34-24 loss in Philadelphia on Monday, and has been one of the most charitable units in football when it comes to red-zone offense. Washington has permitted teams to score touchdowns on 64.7 percent of their trips inside the Redskins' 20-yard line; only Miami, Green Bay and Cleveland have been worse. With Elliott already cleared to play in Week 8, it could be another long day for Washington's beleaguered red-zone defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions (+3, 45)
Steelers' drive-killing prowess vs. Lions' first-down follies

The Steelers might have a claim as the best team in the AFC after rolling to a 29-14 victory over the rival Cincinnati Bengals. Pittsburgh is now 5-2 on the season and appears to have put its early-season drama behind it. Yet, for all the attention paid to the dynamic duo of Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, it has been the Pittsburgh defense that has made the real difference so far - and when it comes to first downs, the Steelers own a decided edge over an inconsistent Lions team.

Pittsburgh has quashed opponents' drives better than almost anyone over the past three games, limiting foes to an average of 12.7 first downs - the second-fewest of any team over that stretch. The Bengals managed a meager 11 first downs in Sunday's loss, which dropped the Steelers' average first downs allowed to 15.4 on the season - behind only the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers, considered two of the top overall defenses in football.

The Detroit offense hasn't been firing on all cylinders quite yet; sure, it produced 38 points in the final game prior to the Week 7 bye, but that was only because the Lions were in catch-up mode for the entire game. Detroit is averaging a modest 18 first downs per game so far, good for 23rd in the league. That leaves the Lions near the middle of the pack in time of possession - another tick in favor of the Steelers, whose drive-killing defense has them ranked third overall in TOP.

[StarDust Bum]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 8 NFL lines are going to move

The Dolphins and Ravens meet on Thursday night football and thanks to a pair of inept offenses, we've got a total that's as rare as a UFO sighting.

Game to bet now

Minnesota at Cleveland (+9.5)

The Browns went 1-15 in 2016 and it’s possible they’re worse this year.

How bad is it? A Browns promotion to give a prize to one fan went awry when the seat chosen at random was unoccupied. Oh, and their best lineman (tackle Joe Thomas, who hasn’t missed a game since 2007, looks lost for the year with a triceps tear.

Money is already heavy on the Vikings, moving the line a full two points from 7.5. Expect more Minnesota money to change the line even more, so if you like Minnesota, best jump now.

Game to wait on

Dallas at Washington (+1)

Ten of the 16 teams in the NFC, including these two, have either two or three losses. Catching the 6-1 Eagles is hardly out of the question, but this division game is vital for both.

The Cowboys are an early season disappointment, and they’ll have to get their act together immediately to get back in the playoff picture. Dallas plays Kansas City, Atlanta and Philadelphia in its next three games.

Washington, meanwhile, has a slightly easier schedule and would like nothing better than to slap down the ‘Boys and take a giant step toward turning the East into a two-team race with Philadelphia.

Total to watch

Miami at Baltimore (37.5)

Totals this low used to be as rare as UFO sightings recent years but they seem to be coming back.

The Dolphins are the second-lowest-scoring team in the league and their 1-5 record against the over reflects that. Still, there are signs that things might be moving in the right direction.

The Fins have won three in a row they been able to move the ball in their last two games (Atlanta, Jets). Miami (4-2 SU) is in the thick of it in a rejuvenated AFC East. Baltimore’s offense has been all over the map, and inconsistent QB Joe Flacco is being asked questions like “Is the offense completely broken?”

Yikes.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 26

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MIAMI (4 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 4) - 10/26/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 55-78 ATS (-30.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 29

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MINNESOTA (5 - 2) vs. CLEVELAND (0 - 7) - 10/29/2017, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (3 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 2) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 47-73 ATS (-33.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (3 - 3) at NY JETS (3 - 4) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (4 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 4) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 110-82 ATS (+19.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CAROLINA is 81-49 ATS (+27.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (6 - 1) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (3 - 4) at BUFFALO (4 - 2) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 50-80 ATS (-38.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 5) at CINCINNATI (2 - 4) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA CHARGERS (3 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 2) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 110-80 ATS (+22.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (3 - 3) at SEATTLE (4 - 2) - 10/29/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 35-60 ATS (-31.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 42-65 ATS (-29.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (3 - 3) at WASHINGTON (3 - 3) - 10/29/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (5 - 2) at DETROIT (3 - 3) - 10/29/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 67-43 ATS (+19.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, October 30

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DENVER (3 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 2) - 10/30/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Thursday, October 26

MIAMI @ BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami


Sunday, October 29

MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 15 games
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

CHICAGO @ NEW ORLEANS
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games
New Orleans is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago

OAKLAND @ BUFFALO
Oakland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Buffalo's last 11 games at home

INDIANAPOLIS @ CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 11 games on the road
Indianapolis is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 10 games

LA CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing New England
New England is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against LA Chargers

ATLANTA @ NY JETS
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Atlanta's last 25 games
NY Jets is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home

HOUSTON @ SEATTLE
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Seattle is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

DALLAS @ WASHINGTON
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Dallas

PITTSBURGH @ DETROIT
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home


Monday, October 30

DENVER @ KANSAS CITY
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home
Kansas City is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Thursday's game
Dolphins (4-2) @ Ravens (3-4)— Miami is 4-2 despite trailing five of six games at the half. QB Cutler has multiple cracked ribs; Moore is expected to start, with untested Doughty (WKU) the backup if Cutler doesn’t dress. Moore is 15-13 as an NFL starter, but has started only 3 games since 2011. Dolphins won last three games, by 6-3-3 points; their four wins are by total of 14 points. Baltimore lost four of last five games overall; they won six of last seven series games; they whacked the Dolphins 38-6 here LY; Miami lost its last three visits to Baltimore, by 7-16-32 points. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 5-2 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-5. Under is 5-1 in Dolphin games; over is 4-1 in last five Raven games.

Sunday's games
Vikings (5-2) vs Browns (0-7) (in London)— Kessler is third QB to start for Browns this year; he is 0-8 as an NFL starter, was 26-14 at USC. Cleveland has 18 turnovers (-12) in their last six games; they’re 1-5 vs spread in those games- four of their seven losses are by exactly three points. Minnesota won its last three games, allowing 14.3 pts/game; they’re 1-1 on road, with 26-9 loss at Pittsburgh, 20-17 win in Chicago. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 4-4 vs spread as a favorite away from home— they’re 2-1 vs Cleveland, losing 31-27 at home to Browns in last meeting, in 2013. NFC North teams are 11-8 vs spread outside their division, 3-2 if favored. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 4-2 against the spread.

Bears (3-4) @ Saints (4-2)—New Orleans defense is way improved; Saints won last four games, allowing 6 TD’s on 38 drives, while scoring 3 of their own- they ran ball for 193-161 yards in last two games. NO is +40 in plays run in their last three games. Saints split their two home games. Chicago scored two defensive TD’s early in game LW, then sat on lead; they’re 2-1 in Trubisky starts, winning 27-24 in OT at Baltimore in his only road start. Saints won last three series games by 17-8-16 points; this is first series meeting since 2011, Bears’ first visit here since ’11- they lost last four visits here, with last win in Superdome in 1991. NFC North road underdogs are 3-4 vs spread outside their division; NFC South one favorites are 3-6.

Falcons (3-3) @ Jets (3-4)— Atlanta lost its last three games after a 3-0 start; they’ve got only one takeaway (-6) in last four games. Falcons were 13-33 (39.4%) on 3rd down in last three games; they were 14-30 (46.7%) in first three. Jets lost last two games despite leading both games 14-0; three of their last four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Gang Green is 4-0-1 vs spread in their last five games; they’re 2-1 at home (3-0 vs spread). Atlanta leads this series 6-5; they’re 3-2 in road games against the Jets. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-10 vs spread, 3-4 on road. AFC East underdogs are 7-2 vs spread, 2-0 at home. Last three Falcon games stayed under total; under is 4-3 in Jet games, 2-1 at home.

Panthers (4-3) @ Buccaneers (2-4)— Carolina lost 17-3 in Chicago LW; both Bear TD’s were scored by defense. Panthers turned ball over six times (-5) in losing last two games after a 4-1 start; they’re 3-1 on road. Carolina is -8 in turnovers in its three losses, -1 in its four wins. Bucs lost last three games, by 5-5-3 points, giving up 30-38 points in last two games- they’re 2-1 at home, with only home loss 19-14 to Patriots. Tampa Bay swept Carolina 17-14/17-16 LY, after losing previous six series games; Panthers won three of last four visits here. Five of last seven series totals were 36 or less. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 vs spread. Over is 3-1 in last four Carolina games, 4-1 in Buccaneers’ last five games.

49ers (0-7) @ Eagles (6-1)— Philly is on serious roll, but lost LT Peters for year Monday, a big blow to offense. Eagles won last five games, covered last four; they’re 11-9 vs spread in last 20 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year, with home wins by 3-27-10. Iggles allowed 23+ points in five of their last six games. 49ers are 0-7, but 4-3 vs spread; they’re 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs, with road losses by 3-3-3-2 points. SF was outscored 37-10 in first half of their last two games. Niners won last two series games by 1-5 points; teams split last four meetings played here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 1-5 vs spread; NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 3-4 on road. Over is 4-1 in 49ers’ last five games.

Raiders (3-4) @ Bills (4-2)— Buffalo is 4-2 with a +10 turnover ratio; Bills are 3-0 at home, with wins by 9-10-3 points. Buffalo is 22-42 on 3rd down in its last three games. Oakland snapped 4-game skid with Thursday win over Chiefs, has three extra days to prep; Raiders are 1-2 on road, losing 27-10/16-10 at Washington/Denver in last two road tilts- their last two games were both decided by a point. Home side won last six series games; Oakland lost 24-23/38-35 in last two visits here- Raiders’ last win in Buffalo was in ’02. AFC West underdogs are 4-0 vs spread outside their division, 3-0 on road. AFC East home favorites are 1-3-1 against the spread. Under is 4-2 in Buffalo games, 3-0 in Raider road games.

Colts (2-5) @ Bengals (2-4)— Indy is 0-3 on road, losing by 35-28-14 points (0-3 vs spread); four of their five losses are by 14+ points- they’ve been outscored 134-44 in second half of games this year, have one TD on 19 drives in last two games. Bengals were held to 179 yards in 29-14 loss at Pittsburgh LW; they allowed 7-16 points in their two wins, are 0-3 when giving up more than 16 points. Cincy ran ball for only 74 yards/game in their last three games. Colts are 9-2 in last 11 series games; last meeting was 26-10 Indy win in 2014 playoff game. AFC South road teams are 2-4 vs spread, 2-2 as road dogs. AFC North favorites are 2-5 vs spread, 2-3 if at home. Under is 4-2 in Bengal games, 2-5 in Indy games.

Chargers (3-4) @ Patriots (4-2)— Chargers won last three games after an 0-4 start; they’re 3-0 vs spread as a road underdog, losing by 3 at Denver, winning SU at Giants/Raiders. Last five TD’s Chargers allowed all came on plays of 23+ yards. Patriots won last three games, by 5-7-16 points; they’re 1-3 vs spread as home favorite this year. NE stayed under their team total the last four weeks. Bolts lost last three series games, by 3-14-9 points; they lost last three visits to to Foxboro by 24-9-14 points- their last win was in ’05. AFC West underdogs are 4-0 vs spread outside their division, 3-0 on road. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 1-3-1 vs spread. Last three Patriot games, last two Charger games stayed under the total.

Texans (3-3) @ Seahawks (4-2)— Houston won/covered five of its last six post-bye games; they scored 33+ points in last four games, with rookie QB Watson under center. Texans are 2-0 as a road dog- the two games were decided by total of 7 points- this is their first road game in over a month. Seahawks won/covered their last three games; they’re 2-0 at home, allowing two TD’s on 22 drives, but those games were against 49ers/Colts. Seattle is 2-1 in this series, winning 42-10 in Texans’ only visit here, in 2005; Seahawks won last meeting in OT in ’13. AFC South road teams are 2-4 vs spread, 2-2 as road dogs. NFC West teams are 7-10 vs spread outside their division, 2-1 as a home fave. Under is 4-2 in Seattle games, 0-4 in last four Texan games.

Cowboys (3-3) @ Redskins (3-3)— Dallas allowed 3-17-10 points in its three wins, 42-35-35 in its three losses; they’re 2-1 on road- since 2014, they’re 9-4 vs spread as a road favorite. Cowboys have 611 rushing yards in their last three games. Short week for Washington after physical loss to Iggles Monday night; Redskins scored 20+ points in last five games, are 2-1 at home- they’re 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as a home underdog. Road team won six of last seven series games; Dallas is 6-2 in last eight series games, winning last four visits here, by 1-27-3-4 points. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 vs spread. Four of last five Dallas games went over total; over is 3-1-1 in last five Redskin games.

Steelers (5-2) @ Lions (3-3)— Detroit won/covered its last five post-bye games; they were dog in 3 of the 5 games. Lions lost three of last four games overall; their OFFENSE gave up three TD’s in last game, a 52-38 loss in Superdome. Detroit is 1-2 at home; all three games went over the total. Pittsburgh is 3-1 on road, allowing 15.8 pts/game; all four games stayed under total. Pitt is 4-0 when they run ball for 100+ yards. Steelers won four in row, 12 of last 14 games vs Detroit; they won 28-20 in last visit here, in ’09. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-5 vs spread, 0-2 on road. NFC North non-divisional home underdogs are 5-2 vs spread. Five of last six Steeler games stayed under total; over is 3-1 in last four Detroit games.

Monday's game
Broncos (3-3) @ Chiefs (5-2)— KC lost its last two games after a 5-0 start; they ran ball for average of 156.2 ypg in their five wins, 28-94 yards in their two losses. Broncos held five of six opponents to 80 or less rushing yards. Denver is 0-2 on road, losing 26-16 to Bills, 16-0 to Chargers; in their last four games, Broncos scored 3 TD’s on 45 drives- they ran ball 36 times for 115 yards in last two games. Denver scored 19 points on their last nine red zone drives- not good. Chiefs won last three series games, by 16-3-23 points; Denver won five of its last six visits to Arrowhead. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 against the spread. Over is 4-1-2 in Chief games, 0-3 in last three Denver games.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 8 lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

Before this past week, Oakland’s offense had scored 53 points in the previous four games. How will the Silver and Black do against the Bills vaunted defense?

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns (+9.5, 37.5)

Being on neutral ground, the offshore opener of Minnesota -7.5 was quickly devoured by those sharp bettors who were expecting higher, like myself. I made this at least -10.5 bordering -11 from the get-go.

Minnesota has quickly become a defensive force in the league allowing 17, 14, 17, 10 and 16 points in its last five games. That stop unit going against a Cleveland offense that is struggling mightily, scoring 7, 14, 17 and nine points in the past four weeks, appears to be good reason that the difference between these two will easily cover any betting number out there up and including the closing line. The Vikings’ point total has improved in three straight weeks. The Browns are losing by an average of over 16 points per game in their last four weeks and nearly by 9.5 for the season.

If you were hedging like most of us early in the betting, taking the Vikings now, instead of later, would be the wise move. Cleveland backers, all two of you, would best benefit by waiting this one out and checking back later to grab a potential double-digit number to your liking. Being that the perception that a difference of 10 is a key number (which it really isn’t), I don’t see this getting maximum play on Minnesota too consistently once it gets that high. Chances of this going over 10 points are minimal.

My strategy here also involves the fact that this is a “special” game, we might not see a letdown by the favored Vikings in a spot like this. Now at 5-2, the last thing Minnesota needs is a closely-fought game in which I am sure they have marked as a notch in the win column. If Cleveland had any talent, particularly at the quarterback position, they could surprise and stay close. But this is certainly not the case.

Insight into Vegas' opening odds and early sharp action for NFL Week 8 betting
There are some very interesting matchups on the NFL Week 8 schedule and we get the story behind those odds from Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn Las Vegas, who gives his insight into the opening lines and early action.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 45.5)

Oakland comes to Buffalo for what has become quite a shootout whenever these two teams’ cross paths. I absolutely agreed with the offshore opener of the Bills -3, but early betting has been on the Raiders, partly due to the stunning (and home field advantage) victory over the Chiefs this past week.

Before that, the Raiders were slipping into an abyss that was quickly putting an end to their season. I made this around Buffalo -3 (-120), looking at how the Bills are performing at home this season. In fact, home field has been a huge play between these two as the home team has won six straight times.

Before this past week, Oakland’s offense had scored a mere 53 points in the previous four games. Buffalo has had one of the best “points against” defenses in the NFL all year long. The Bills are playing well, playing better at home, and are feeding off their underdog status. They seem to have the emotional edge in this game.

As an oddsmaker, where my suggestions to bookmakers with parlay cards were under the microscope, I have always deemed the early movement downward to be a set-up for the casinos to print up their cards south of the key 3. A little money early in the week will turn out to be much larger the other way come kickoff. If you like Buffalo, don’t expect this number to drop off much more. The early money did its job. If you like Oakland, I firmly believe you will see 3’s hit the board again come game day so you might want to sit this out until the weekend to play.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 44)

I made this game more of a toss-up, closer to Tampa Bay either a pick or -1 at best. I understand Carolina’s awful play against the Bears in Chicago this past weekend, but the Panthers were coming off a tough three-game stretch against some quality opponents and when they found themselves down by two touchdowns off turnovers.

The Bears were able to crank up the defense in a position of power and keep the Carolina offense at bay. The fact that the Bears mustered just three points of offense all day themselves has me thinking that we need to throw that game out and look at this matchup with new eyes.

Tampa Bay has lost four of the last five games. It’s given up just under 30 points per game during that span. Though Tampa Bay did score 27 points off a monster day by QB Jameis Winston, it came against a Bills secondary that was hit with multiple injuries to their cornerbacks during the game.

Tampa Bay doesn’t look to be too strong of a force the rest of the way while Carolina, currently in second place, needs this game to not only to wipe away the unpleasant taste of last week’s results, but firmly entrench themselves in the NFC playoff picture. At this point, there’s a huge difference between 5-3 and 4-4.

I don’t see this number heading up any time soon during the course of this week. I see a strong play on the dog where bettors are planning to see a bounce back game by the Panthers in a totally winnable game. Grab as many points as you can if you’re backing the Panthers. Wait until game day if you like the Buccaneers and be prepared to only lay a point or two max at that time.