The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

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NFL notebook: Cowboys' Elliott granted temporary restraining order
October 17, 2017

Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is eligible to play Sunday after a federal judge in New York granted him a temporary restraining order on Tuesday.

As a result, Elliott is expected to be on the field when the Cowboys face the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara, Calif.

The NFL Players Association filed the motion for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction as part of the federal lawsuit initiated by the NFL. The Southern District Court of New York heard the NFLPA's motion before giving its ruling.

In granting the temporary restraining order, U.S. District Jude Paul Crotty said the action is pending a hearing before the presiding judge, Katherine Polk Fialla.

--Philadelphia Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson cleared concussion protocol and participated in practice.

Johnson sustained the injury during the Eagles' 34-7 win over the Arizona Cardinals on Oct. 8 and was unable to suit up just four days later in the team's 28-23 victory against the Carolina Panthers.

Running back Wendell Smallwood also returned to practice after sitting out the last two games with swelling in his knee.

--Jaguars president Mark Lamping has apologized to the city of Jacksonville's director of military affairs chief for the decision of several players to kneel during the national anthem prior to the team's game in London on Sept. 24.

Lamping wrote in a letter sent to Bill Span, the city's director of military affairs and veterans department, that the organization did not fully consider the emotions resulting in the decision to kneel for the national anthem.

The Jaguars' players who knelt prior to the game against the Baltimore Ravens were Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, Calais Campbell, Malik Jackson, Tashaun Gipson, Yannick Ngakoue and Dante Fowler. The Jaguars' entire team stood for "God Save The Queen."

--New York Giants cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie's indefinite suspension for violating team rules is over.

Rodgers-Cromartie was indefinitely suspended on Thursday following an incident with coach Ben McAdoo. The Pro Bowl selection subsequently sat out Sunday night's 23-10 win over the Denver Broncos, costing him $410,588.

Rodgers-Cromartie met with McAdoo on Tuesday morning and was reinstated to the active roster from the reserve/suspended by club list. He is expected to return to the team's facility in East Rutherford, N.J., on Wednesday.

--The Jaguars released Jason Myers and signed fellow kicker Josh Lambo.

The 26-year-old Myers misfired on a 52-yard field goal attempt in a 23-20 overtime loss to the New York Jets on Oct. 1 and missed a pair of 54-yard attempts in a 27-17 setback to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. Myers made 11 of 15 field goal attempts and 15 of 17 PATs this season. He has missed 15 field-goal attempts and 12 PATs during his 37-game career with the Jaguars.

Lambo made 52 of 64 field goal attempts and 70 of 78 PATs in two seasons with the then-San Diego Chargers.

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Eagles T Johnson, RB Smallwood return
October 17, 2017

Philadelphia Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson cleared concussion protocol and participated in practice on Tuesday.

Johnson sustained the injury during the Eagles' 34-7 win over the Arizona Cardinals on Oct. 8 and was unable to suit up just four days later in the team's 28-23 victory against the Carolina Panthers.

Halapoulivaati Vaitai replaced the 27-year-old Johnson and promptly surrendered a sack to Julius Peppers on the first drive.

Running back Wendell Smallwood also returned to practice Tuesday after sitting out the last two games with swelling in his knee. The 23-year-old Smallwood has been effective when healthy in place of the injured Darren Sproles, who is lost for the season.

"Working my way back. I felt good today," said Smallwood, who has rushed for 113 yards on 29 carries with a touchdown this season.

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Bowman believes Raiders have title shot
October 17, 2017

ALAMEDA, Calif. -- Linebacker NaVorro Bowman, wearing the same No. 53 but in silver and black, likes the idea of a change of scenery -- even if it is still in the Bay Area.

"It's a refresher for me. ... a new picture, new scenery," Bowman said following his first practice with the Oakland Raiders, who signed him after he was released by the San Francisco 49ers Saturday.

"Guys are a special group of guys," the four-time All-Pro said. "You can see the talent they have on the offensive side of the ball. I'm excited. I'm excited for an offense that's eager to score points and I look forward to it."

Bowman, who said he would give it his best shot to be available to play Thursday night, was undaunted by the Raiders' disappointing record and thinks a championship is still in play.

"We're 2-4, two games behind (actually three)," Bowman said. "I feel like this is a team that could do that. I'm excited. I love the challenge. I think the guys do, too. It's about how you respond to adversity, not about when it happens. I look forward to it."

Head coach Jack Del Rio got to know Bowman during the offseason on a locally produced television show called the "Coaching Corps Game Changer Awards" where each man honored mentors from their past.

"A very impressive young man to me, kind of a man's man," Del Rio said. "He's been a tough player, been part of a really good defense for his entire career. I had a chance to talk to him about the kind of veteran leadership it would be nice to have."

Said Bowman: "You could just see how coach Del Rio welcomed his conversation and just showing me that he respected my game. It's always been mutual love for the situation. It came around. We were able to pursue it and get me here. It looks good."

--Rookie linebacker Nicholas Morrow, who started out of position in the middle against the Chargers, and weak-side starter Cory James were pleased to have Bowman both in the meeting room and on the field.

"I mean you see the film -- he's a monster," Morrow said. "He's been doing it a high level for a long time. It's always good to learn from someone like that. A true vet; an All-Pro. It will be exciting to learn from him."

James, who has been battling a knee injury and played only seven snaps against the Chargers, said Bowman can "get to the ball and make plays like a Ray Lewis-type person is supposed to do."

--Things are looking up for wide receiver Amari Cooper. He caught five passes against the Chargers -- one more than he had the previous three games combined.

The plays totaled only 28 yards, but Cooper had gains of 31 and 19 yards called back by penalty. Cooper is willing to be patient.

"Any time you play a team sport, you have to be selfless," Cooper said. "We have a lot of playmakers so the ball has to go to a lot of different people. That's good for the offense."

--Second-round draft pick Obi Melifonwu practiced for the first time since being placed on injured reserve. He can't play for two weeks and overall the Raiders have a total of 21 days to either activate Melifonwu -- as Del Rio expects -- or leave him on injured reserve for the duration of the season.

"I feel 100 percent," Melifonwu said. "It was just beyond fun to be out there and practice with the team."

Ideally, Melifonwu would be play in the Raiders Nov. 5 game in Miami.

By starting the clock on Melifonwu, the Raiders have one move remaining with players on injured reserve. That means that either guard Denver Kirkland, a solid backup who also serves as an extra lineman in power situations, or kicker Sebastian Janikowski will end up not playing this season.

Janikowski was put on injuerd reserve with a back injury and Giorgio Tavecchio hasn't missed a field-goal attempt as his replacement.

Looking around the roster:

--Tackle Marshall Newhouse did not practice with a foot injury and will be replaced by Vadal Alexander if he can't play.

--Linebacker Cory James did not practice with a knee injury and will be replaced by Xavier Woodson-Luster or Nicholas Morrow if he can't play.

--Linebacker Nicholas Morrow was limited with a foot injury and his status is not known for the Chiefs game.

--Guard Gabe Jackson was limited with a foot injury, but is expected to play after playing every snap against the Chargers.

--Cornerback Gareon Conley did not practice with a shin injury and there is no timetable for his return.

--Linebacker Marquel Lee did not practice with a foot injury, missed the Chargers game and will likely be replaced by NaVorro Bowman in the middle.

--Fullback Jamize Olawale was limited with a concussion and his status is uncertain for Kansas City.

--Tight end Lee Smith was limited with a knee injury, but is expected to face the Chiefs.

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Carr focused on Thursday clash with KC
October 17, 2017

ALAMEDA, Calif. -- Derek Carr's big moment has arrived.

During an offseason of hype surrounding the Oakland Raiders following a 12-4 season and their first playoff berth since 2002, the quarterback insisted one of the reasons the team would stay grounded was the presence of the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs, after all, swept the Raiders last season and ended up AFC West champs because of it.

It happened once in Oakland, a one-sided 26-10 win that ranked as the Raiders worst game of the season with Carr at quarterback, and again in Kansas City by a 21-13 margin.

You could make the argument that Carr, a Most Valuable Player contender, might have actually won the award had he played better against the Chiefs instead of completing 39-of-75 passes for 342 yards, with one touchdown and an interception..

Carr actually won the first game of his NFL career against the Chiefs as a rookie following an 0-10 start. It came on a Thursday night in Oakland, as is the case for Week 7.

He hasn't won since. Carr is 1-5 lifetime against the Chiefs, completing 55 percent of his passes for 1,215 yards, six touchdowns, five interceptions and a passer rating of 68.1. He's been sacked 18 times -- three times per game.

So Carr, who played Sunday with a fractured transverse process in his back in a 17-16 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, knows what he's up against.

Asked if Kansas City is the hill he needs to conquer, Carr hedged but only a little.

"Well, definitely this week," Carr said. "As cliche' as we can get, we have to go 1-0 this week. It's a division game, which really counts for two. You want to go out and beat one of the best teams in football. So all the challenges are there. Everything is pushing our back against the wall, but one thing I know we're going to do is come out on Thursday night and fight."

Carr said the Chiefs have been troublesome for many reasons, one of them being defensive coordinator Bob Sutton.

"They do a good job rushing the passer. They do a good job of stopping the run. They do a good job on the coverage end," Carr said. "Coach Sutton is a great coach. ... so much respect that he texted me when I got hurt last year. He's just a good dude. But this week I don't like him too much.

"He does a good job of making sure everyone is locked in. They're really smart. They don't do a lot so they can see route concepts. They can visualize things and get used to seeing those kinds of things."

The problem for the Raiders and Carr is that he and the offense weren't performing to the standard set a year ago even before the fracture in his back.

The Raiders have lost four straight games, three of them with Carr at quarterback. His passer rating of 93.9 was built largely on the first two games of the season -- both wins -- and the Raiders have been under 300 yards of total offense in each of the four-game losing streak.

A problem of late has been getting the ball downfield. One of the more explosive quarterbacks a year ago, Carr and the Raiders have been more dink and dunk of late.

"You know you definitely want more. We definitely want more," Carr said. "We're going to work and we're going to get more. We have a good group. I think we all believe that here. We have seen it. Now does that mean we're going to try and do anything differently or force things? Absolutely not. That's where you get in trouble. You have to just work hard and let it happen."

SERIES HISTORY: 114th regular-season meeting. Chiefs lead series, 60-51-2 including the last five in a row. Kansas City won 26-10 in Oakland and 21-13 in Kansas City a year ago to win the division title and relegate the Raiders to the wild card as both teams finished 12-4. The last Raiders win was 24-20 in Oakland in 2014 on a Thursday night for the first victory of the season after an 0-10 start. It is Derek Carr's lone win against the Chiefs.

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QB Watson continues to impress
October 17, 2017

HOUSTON -- The unprecedented success of Houston Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson has established new NFL milestones, excited teammates with his swagger and style and created hope for a franchise that had suffered for years under center.

Watson leads the NFL with 15 touchdown passes, as many as the Texans had last season during the disastrous one-year tenure of $72 million quarterback bust Brock Osweiler.

He's on pace to finish the season with 40 touchdown passes and 3,458 yards. Those are Pro-Bowl caliber numbers. Watson isn't inclined to rest on his laurels, though.

"I mean, it's pretty cool, but me as a player, I'm never complacent," Watson said. "I'm always striving to be the best and striving to improve on my game. So, it's no surprise. I've put in the work and I'm a confident player."

Watson is tied with Kurt Warner and Mark Rypien for the most touchdown passes by any quarterback in his first six games.

And Watson is the only rookie in league history to throw three or more touchdown passes in three consecutive games with a dozen touchdown passes in his past three games.

"Look, for a guy that's just coming into the league, to be able to play the way he's played, with the poise that he's played with, definitely pleased with that," Texans head coach Bill O'Brien said. "I just know that there's a lot of things relative to him and the way he thinks and the way I think that we can all get better at. I think he'll always try to enhance the things that he's doing well and I think he'll really work hard to change the things that he's not doing well."

Watson is annoyed with himself for throwing an interception Sunday, his fifth of the season, and that it was returned for a touchdown by Cleveland Browns cornerback Jason McCourty.

"Just a rush," Watson said. "Fundamentals were bad and the ball just sailed on me and McCourty made a great play and returned it for six. It's a good learning lesson."

At 22 years old, Watson has quickly emerged as one of the top young quarterbacks in the NFL. He's completing 61.5 percent of his throws for 1,297 yards. He's rushed for 202 yards and two scores since replacing Tom Savage.

"I've grown a lot," Watson said. "Each rep is another step for me to be able to grow as a player, as a person and as a leader. Getting more comfortable in this league is very, very hard to do, so each rep is real critical."

--Sprinting away from defenders and displaying upgraded catching skills, Texans wide receiver Will Fuller has emerged as a dangerous scoring threat.

Regardless of whether it's a long throw or in close quarters, Fuller has been nearly impossible to stop or contain.

Fuller has caught five touchdown passes in three games on eight receptions for 154 yards, scoring on 62.5 percent of his catches since returning from a broken collarbone that forced him to miss the first three games.

"I feel like I'm settling in pretty good coming off the long injury," Fuller said. "I was working before I got back so it was just a matter of time before I got back to my conditioning level and all that stuff."

A first-round draft pick from Notre Dame and the fastest player on the Texans' roster with a 4.28 time in the 40-yard dash, Fuller caught 47 passes for 635 yards and two scores last season. He struggled a bit with his hands, but has improved markedly in terms of fundamentals and strength this year.

"Just playing smarter," Fuller said. "It's my second year, so I know a lot more about defenses and how they're going to try to play. I think that's the biggest thing. Playing smarter so I can play faster. I feel like I'm a little stronger."

Averaging 19.3 yards per reception, Fuller has built a strong connection with quarterback Deshaun Watson. Their timing is obvious.

"It's a lot of fun," Fuller said. "He has his own swag to him. He just keeps everything fun."

--The exuberance of Texans wide receiver Braxton Miller was on display Sunday during his touchdown catch as he punctuated the score by doing a forward flip into the end zone.

Miller had been a healthy scratch for the previous two games.

However, Texans head coach Bill O'Brien wasn't a fan of how Miller celebrated the touchdown.

"Yeah, I didn't like the flip, I did not like the flip," O'Brien said. "Just score, hand the ball to the official would be my advice to him."

A former third-round draft pick and converted quarterback from Ohio State, Miller caught two passes against the Browns.

At least one person approved of Miller's acrobatics: Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson.

"I mean, that's something that he wanted to do," Watson said. "His opportunity came and he took advantage of it and he did a flip and it was pretty dope."

REPORT CARD VS. BROWNS

--PASSING OFFENSE: B -- Deshaun Watson threw three touchdown passes and has 15 for the season to lead the NFL. He has one interception returned for a touchdown.

--RUSHING OFFENSE: B -- Running backs D'Onta Foreman and Lamar Miller ran hard and picked up some key yards. The game plan was primarily to throw the ball.

--PASS DEFENSE: A: The Texans intercepted Kevin Hogan three times and sacked him four times. Johnathan Joseph returned one interception 82 yards for a touchdown.

--RUSH DEFENSE: B: The Browns' running game had trouble gaining much traction as they weren't able to sustain blocks.

--SPECIAL TEAMS: B -- The punt coverage improved, kicker Kai'imi Fairbairn had six touchbacks on kickoffs, but there was a missed extra point.

--COACHING: B -- Bill O'Brien had the team focused to take care of business against a winless team. The strategy was sound.

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Wednesday’s six-pack

More NBA over/under win totals for the coming season:

Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5

Miami Heat 43.5

Philadelphia 76ers 42.5

New York Knicks 30.5

Brooklyn Nets 28.5

Atlanta Hawks 25.5

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Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings……..

13) 5:15 into the Boston Celtics’ season, Gordon Hayward severely injured his leg/ankle when he came down on an attempted alley-oop. It was a gruesome injury, reminiscent of Jason Kendall or Joe Theismann’s grotesque leg injuries.

12) Damn, this is Lebron James’ 15th year in the NBA? Time flies. I remember sitting in a bar having dinner, watching his high school game that ESPN showed. Think Bill Walton was the TV analyst that night; people were excited that Lebron scored 31 points.

Hell, I thought, if he’s going to be in the NBA next year, he SHOULD score 31 points in a high school game, shouldn’t he?

Obviously, Lebron has outperformed those huge expectations; good for him.

11) By the way, sounds like pretty soon, kids will able to go straight from high school to the NBA once again, which helps everyone, except veterans trying to hang on in the G-League.

10) Indianapolis Colts in the fourth quarter this season: they’ve been outscored 85-22, allowing 1,034 yards on 139 plays, an average of 7.4 yards per play.

Colts are 2-4, but they haven’t trailed at halftime since Week 1 against the Rams.

9) Tennessee Titans have 7 takeaways in six games, but they’re the only team in NFL that hasn’t scored a touchdown after one of their takeaways.

Titans-Colts game Monday night had no punts in the first half, the first game in NFL this season without a first half punt.

8) Injured Vikings’ QB Teddy Bridgewater is practicing this week, as he comes back from his severe knee injury; Minnesota has three weeks to decide whether to activate Bridgewater or IR him for the rest of the season. Bridgewater and Sam Bradford are both in the last year of their contracts; Vikings have some interesting decisions ahead of them.

7) Chicago Bulls Bobby Portis and Nikola Mirotic got into a fight today at practice and Mirotic wound up with broken bones in his face; he’s going to be out for a few weeks, at least.

Curious how the analytics geniuses take this into account when they measure Portis, Mirotic as players. There is a human element to sports that can never be quantified— these guys live and travel together for months at a time. Part of being a good teammate is staying out of fights that send yourself or teammates to the hospital.

6) Best red zone offenses in NFL:
Packers 5.68 pts/possession, Eagles 5.56, Cowboys 5.33, Texans 5.25— Aaron Rodgers is gone for the year, so going forward, Green Bay’s numbers figure to drop dramatically.

5) Best offenses on drives starting 75+ yards from end zone:
Saints 2.47, Chiefs 2.46, Titans 2.37, Patriots 2.16

Worst offenses on drives starting 75+ yards from end zone (includes points lost on TD”s scored by the opposing defense):
Colts 0.42, Bengals 0.51, Buccaneers 0.91, Lions 0.97

4) Most plays of 20+ yards this season:
Rams 31, Vikings 30, Patriots/Cardinals 29, Chiefs 27

3) Most TD’s on plays of 20+ yards:
Raiders 8 (out of 13 total TD’s), Chiefs 7 (18 total TD’s), Titans 7 (13 total TD’s), Jets 6 (11 total TD’s), Lions 6 (14 total TD’s)

2) Baseball update:
AL: New York 6, Houston 4— Astros’ bullpen imploded; series is tied 2-2.
NL: Dodgers 6, Cubs 1– Chicago is going down meekly.

1) One of the best days of the year for me is when the Blue Ribbon Yearbook arrives at my door every October; the bible of college basketball, Blue Ribbon has a ton of useful information in it, and it got here Monday. If you like college basketball, it is well worth your time.

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NFL opening line report: A-Rod injury turns Pack into early Week 7 pups
Patrick Everson

The Green Bay Packers are home underdogs for just the second time since the beginning of the 2014 season. Will backup QB Brett Hundley be able to carry the load for the Pack with A-Rod out?

Through six weeks of the NFL season, there are no more undefeated teams, and it’s anybody’s guess as to which squad is best. Patrick Everson checks out the opening lines on four Week 7 games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+3)

Kansas City tumbled from the ranks of the unbeaten with a sluggish Week 6 offensive performance, failing to put up touchdown until the fourth quarter. The Chiefs (5-1 SU and ATS) lost to Pittsburgh 19-13 as a 3.5-point home favorite.

Oakland welcomed the return of star quarterback Derek Carr, then promptly mirrored KC with a lackluster effort. The Raiders (2-4 SU and ATS) had just one second-half score – a fourth-quarter touchdown after which they missed the extra point. That proved critical when the Raiders, 3-point home faves, lost 17-16 on a last-second San Diego field goal.

Both teams now have a short week, playing in the Thursday nighter.

“What a change in perception between these teams from the offseason to the present,” Cooley said. “The Chiefs finally put up a dud, but that’s expected at some point, while Oakland looks like it’s already left for Vegas. But as we’ve seen in recent weeks with teams that look disoriented, expect the Raiders’ best effort Thursday night.”

Early bettors apparently think so. Although the Raiders were still 3-point home pups late Sunday night, the price to get those points was up to -125.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-4.5)

It’s a rematch of the Super Bowl, though neither team seems to be in championship form, particularly Atlanta. The Patriots, bettors will remember, were 3-point faves in the Super Bowl against Atlanta and needed a miracle to overcome at 27-3 second half deficit to win and cover the spread.

The Falcons (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) won their first three games, trying to put that incredible Super Bowl meltdown behind them. But they’ve now dropped the last two, including Sunday’s shocking 20-17 home loss to Miami as hefty 14-point chalk.

New England (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) spotted the New York Jets 14 points on Sunday, not exactly looking like a 9-point road favorite. However, the Patriots scored the next 24 points and hung on for a 24-17 victory.

“Sharps loved the Falcons in the last matchup between these teams, and they’re lining up again here,” Cooley said of early action for this Sunday night clash. “We’ve already moved the spread down to -3, but it’s doubtful we’ll see it dip under the key number. The Falcons look flat of late, but it’s not as if the Pats have been world beaters the last three weeks.”

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)

Heading into Week 7, Philadelphia surprisingly holds the lead in the NFC East. The Eagles (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) played in the first game of Week 6 and dropped Carolina 28-23 catching 3 points on the road Thursday night.

Washington (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) blew all of a 17-0 lead Sunday, but held on late to move above .500. The Redskins edged the 49ers 26-24, falling well short as 12-point home faves.

“Early money has been on Washington, which is somewhat of a surprise,” Cooley said of the Week 7 Monday nighter. “We’ve moved down to -4 already, but it’s highly unlikely it will head further south. You have to like what both of these squads are doing on the field, but Philadelphia is a few pegs ahead of where Washington is.”

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (+4)

Green Bay was 4-1 SU and appeared to be rounding into form after a big road win at Dallas. Then Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone in the first quarter Sunday against Minnesota, and poof! The Packers (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) lost 23-10 giving 3 points on the road, and will be without their stud QB for the foreseeable future, perhaps the rest of the season.

Meanwhile, New Orleans cracked the 50-point barrier in a wild Week 6 home victory. The Saints (3-2 SU and ATS) went off as 6-point faves against Detroit, led 45-10 midway through the third quarter, then held off a furious rally for a 52-38 victory. Drew Brees and Co. have won and cashed three straight.

Cooley said Bookmaker.eu wasn’t quite ready Sunday to post a Saints-Packers line, with Green Bay now relying on unproven backup Brett Hundley.

“We’ve got to do some additional assessment with Hundley under center in Green Bay before posting a line,” Cooley said. “The public will line up to fade a team sans Aaron Rodgers, but we’ve seen this Packers bunch blow out opponents without him. We’ll open the Saints as short road chalk.”

The Wynn sportsbook in Las Vegas opened with the Saints as 4-point road favorites, while offshore sportsbook Pinnacle installed the Saints as 4.5-point chalk.

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Wiseguys are advising that these Week 7 NFL lines are going to move

Bill Belichick's defense has given up 300 or more passing yards in each of the Patriots last six games. Despite the high total, this could be another good opportunity to be the over with New England.

Game to bet now

Dallas at San Francisco (+6)

Call this one the National Anthem Bowl. The Cowboys, who have been ordered by owner Jerry Jones to stand for the anthem under penalty of benching (or worse), vs. the 49ers, who are the flagship franchise for protest and can stand or kneel depending on the depths of their beliefs.

There will probably be a football game after said anthem, and it’s a big game for the Boys if not the out-of-it-already Niners. Dallas is 2-3 (both SU and ATS) and staring down the barrel of a nasty October/November run that includes four straight winning teams (Washington, Kansas City, Atlanta, Philadelphia) after this Sunday.

It’s possible that all the hay will be in the barn by Thanksgiving, so the Cowboys really need this one to get some momentum for their most important four-game stretch of the season.

Game to wait on

New Orleans at Green Bay (+4.5)

Pro Football Talk has suggested that it might be time to institute even more protection for quarterbacks after Aaron Rodgers was lost for the year when he suffered a broken collar bone when hit a split second after throwing a pass last Sunday.

Maybe, maybe not. But Rodgers might be the best QB in the world, and losing him is bad for business.

The focus will now be on backup QB Brett Hundley, who has been holding a clipboard for a couple of years. Hundley threw 33 passes on Sunday and three of them wound up being intercepted. The Saints are scrambling to find tape on the kid. The line could expand based on early betting.

Total to watch

Atlanta at New England (53.5)

A week or more of warm weather is predicted in New England, and that’s good news for both offenses in this Super Bowl repeat.

The Falcons will welcome any help they can get after scoring just 34 total points in back-to-back losses to AFC East teams (Miami, Buffalo) – and the Patriots might just be the cure for what ails them.

Last Sunday vs. the Jets, New England’s defense gave up more than 300 passing yards for the sixth consecutive. Every week fans figure that Bill Belichick will get it fixed, and every week it isn’t.

Even with the high number, the over might be worth a long, hard look.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 7
Monty Andrews

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (+6, 45)

Saints' impressive O-line vs. Packers' lack of QB pressure

This was supposed to be a matchup between two of the all-time great quarterbacks in NFL history - but with Aaron Rogers out for the long-term with a broken collarbone, the host Packers come in as close to a one-touchdown underdog against Drew Brees and the high-powered Saints offense. Sorting out the offense will be Green Bay's top priority, but finding a way to get to Brees - something no team has done yet this season - should be next on the list.

The Saints have shown tremendous growth on defense over the past three weeks, producing nine turnovers in that stretch. But it is the offensive line that deserves the lion's share of the laurels; it has limited opponents to just four sacks all season, the fewest of any team in the league. It's a big reason why New Orleans ranks seventh in the NFL in total offense (372.2 yards per game) and fourth in scoring offense (29 ppg). If Brees has time to throw, he is among the most dangerous QBs in history.

The Saints' O-line owns a decided edge over a Green Bay pass rush still needs work. Only three teams - Tampa Bay, the New York Jets and Tennessee - have produced fewer sacks than the Packers (11) through the first six weeks of the season. It's a mind-boggling stat considering that four of Green Bay's five defensive line starters have Pro Football Focus grades higher than 78. A lack of quarterback pressure this weekend could make for a long day for the home side.

Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 39.5)

Ravens' wretched third-down results vs. Vikings' vaunted 3D defense

The Ravens have to be wondering what went wrong last weekend as they fell behind early, rallied late and ultimately fell short in a 27-24 overtime loss to visiting Chicago. Baltimore has been one of the most maddeningly inconsistent teams in the league through six weeks, and will need to be at its best this Sunday if it hopes to prevail against the impressive Vikings. One significant area of improvement: Third down execution, something that cost the Ravens the win on Sunday.

Baltimore had the ball on its own 40-yard line on its only possession of OT, but gained just eight yards and failed in a pivotal 3rd-and-2 situation that forced the Ravens to punt. It was the story of the game for Baltimore, which went 3-for-18 on third down Sunday and ranks 28th in the league with a 34.6-percent success rate. It's no wonder, then, that Baltimore sits 29th in total offense (289.2 ypg) and averages an unimpressive 19 points per game so far this season.

They won't find things any easier this weekend, as the Vikings come in off impressive victories over the Bears and Packers in which they limited their foes to 27 total points. Chicago and Green Bay went a combined 7-for-29 on third down against Minnesota, which has held the opposition to a 25-percent success rate - tops in the NFL, and well ahead of the 38.8-percent success rate opposing teams posted against the Vikings in 2016. Look for plenty of short Baltimore drives in this one.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 47.5)

Cardinals' second-half struggles vs. Rams' late-game ball control

Twickenham Stadium is the site of the latest NFL foray into London, with the Cardinals and Rams making the trek overseas. Both teams are coming off impressive victories, with the Cardinals outlasting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38-33 and the Rams upending the host Jaguars 27-17. These teams are tightly bunched with Seattle atop the NFC West, but the Rams come into this one with a decided edge in ball control after the break - something Arizona will need to correct in England.

The Cardinals rank in the lower third in the league in second-half points per game at 8.8 - significantly below the 13.6 ppg average they posted in 2016. And while last week's circumstances - specifically, a 24-0 halftime lead - might have played a role, Arizona's second-half struggles allowed Tampa Bay to make a game of it in the second half. Arizona ranks 26th in the league in second-half possession rate, controlling the ball less than 46 percent of the time after the break.

On the flip side, the Rams' revamped offense has impressed in a number of ways - not the least of which being its ability to control the play in the second half of games. While Los Angeles ranks just outside the top-10 in second half points per game (11.2), that figure is still nearly five points higher than the 6.3 ppg mark it registered last season. And the Rams have masterfully dominated the football after halftime, sitting third in the NFL with a 56.1-percent possession rate.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 42)

Broncos' bad red-zone play vs. Chargers' downfield dominance

The Broncos are reeling after watching the receiver-bereft New York Giants come into Sports Authority Field at Mile High and escape with a 23-10 victory. And sure, Denver could have been stronger defensively, but no one can argue that the offense was the biggest source of frustration on the night, as the team squandered one red-zone opportunity after another. A similarly underwhelming performance won't fly against a Chargers team that has been one of the stingiest when foes get inside their 20-yard line.

Denver comes into the week as one of the worst red-zone performers in football, scoring a touchdown on just 45 percent of trips inside the opponent's 20 - the sixth-lowest mark in the NFL. The Broncos have scored TDs on red zone visits just 25 percent of the time over their previous three games after going a perfect 4-for-4 in a one-sided win over Dallas in Week 2. Denver had 13 possessions against the Giants and scored just one touchdown, going 1-for-4 in the red zone.

The Chargers have offensive issues of their own; they average a paltry 79 rushing yards per game and will be in tough to increase that total against the toughest run defense in the league. But few teams defend in the red zone like Los Angeles, which has limited opponents to a 40-percent touchdown success rate inside their 20-yard line - behind only Seattle, Buffalo, Oakland and Minnesota. The Chargers won't be easy to score on downfield, which could mean even more red-zone struggles for Denver.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL divisional battles are playing Under the betting total at an incredible pace
Jason Logan

There are seven divisional matchups on the board in Week 7, including Monday Night Football. So far this season, divisional games are 8-20 Over/Under - stay below the number 71 percent of the time.

Divisional games in the NFL are always a little more heated than those contests outside of a team’s grouping. The wins count for more and the stakes are much higher, so the intensity is ratcheted up.

Giving up an inch seems like budging a foot, which could be why defense is the name of the game for divisional matchups this season. And it could also be why 20 of the 28 divisional games so far have played Under the betting total.

If you bet the Under in each divisional contest so far in the 2017 season, you’d be celebrating a 71 percent winning clip like Von Miller celebrates a sack. And the victim on the other end of this trend, your bookie, would be peeling himself off the ground and picking grass out of his facemask. A $100 wager on the Under in each of those games would have returned $1,020 – given the standard opening -110 juice on Over/Under wagers.

Heading into Week 7, divisional games have averaged just 38.9 combined points – 4.5 points fewer than the average scoring pace in the NFL right now. Measure those up against an average betting total of 44 points for divisional matchups and Under bettors have plenty of overhead when it comes to cashing in on low-scoring grudge matches.

Huge matchups and a huge injuries headline NFL Week 7 betting odds in Las Vegas
The NFL Week 7 slate has a lot going on at once. You have massive divisional matchups, a Super Bowl rematch, and a team trying to recover from losing the Most Valuable Player to the NFL betting odds. We get the inside scooop on the opening odds and early sharp action from Johnny Avello of the Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook.

This trend is a swing in the other direction compared to last season, when NFL divisional games finished with a 53-42-1 Over/Under mark – playing Over the number in 56 percent of those games. You could look for a connection between this stunning 8-20 Over/Under record and the success of underdogs in divisional matchup this season. Teams getting the points against divisional foes are 15-12-1 ATS – covering more than 56 percent of the time. Generally, underdogs aren’t the sharpest offensive clubs and that dialed-up intensity on defense - as well as a familiarity with those opponents - could be helping keep those scores closer than the oddsmakers expect.

This uptick in Under results for divisional meetings has been a steady winner for total players just about every week – save for a 3-2 Over/Under divisional game record in Week 3. The 2017 schedule opened with seven divisional games on the board, with those matchups going 1-6 Over/Under and producing an average combined score of 34.5 points against an average closing total of 43.6 in Week 1. Week 2 had only three divisional games and posted a 1-2 O/U mark. After the aforementioned 3-2 O/U Week 4, divisional games went 2-5 O/U with an average of 39 points per game versus an average closing total of 43.2. Both divisional contest went Under in Week 5 and just this past weekend, Week 6 games between divisional rivals finished 1-3 O/U with only the Monday nighter between Indianapolis and Tennessee playing Over.

Heading into Week 7, there are seven games between divisional opponents on the schedule. Here’s a look at those games and their current line:

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+3, 47)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3, 38.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+3, 43.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 47.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 41)
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 42)
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 48.5)

The average betting total for those games is 44 points – the exact same average Over/Under number for divisional games this season.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 7

Thursday, October 19

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KANSAS CITY (5 - 1) at OAKLAND (2 - 4) - 10/19/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 49-80 ATS (-39.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 58-83 ATS (-33.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 25-49 ATS (-28.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 22

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TENNESSEE (3 - 3) at CLEVELAND (0 - 6) - 10/22/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 29-50 ATS (-26.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (3 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 4) - 10/22/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 4-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (2 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (4 - 2) - 10/22/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 72-98 ATS (-35.8 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 102-73 ATS (+21.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 89-63 ATS (+19.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (3 - 3) at MINNESOTA (4 - 2) - 10/22/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (3 - 3) at MIAMI (3 - 2) - 10/22/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 70-97 ATS (-36.7 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 3) at BUFFALO (3 - 2) - 10/22/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (4 - 2) at CHICAGO (2 - 4) - 10/22/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CAROLINA is 81-48 ATS (+28.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (3 - 2) at GREEN BAY (4 - 2) - 10/22/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 118-89 ATS (+20.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 118-89 ATS (+20.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 183-128 ATS (+42.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (3 - 3) vs. LA RAMS (4 - 2) - 10/22/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 178-227 ATS (-71.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 178-227 ATS (-71.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-116 ATS (-47.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 127-179 ATS (-69.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 138-179 ATS (-58.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 69-96 ATS (-36.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (2 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 6) - 10/22/2017, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (3 - 2) at NY GIANTS (1 - 5) - 10/22/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 34-60 ATS (-32.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 41-65 ATS (-30.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (3 - 2) at LA CHARGERS (2 - 4) - 10/22/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (3 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (4 - 2) - 10/22/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 94-68 ATS (+19.2 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 109-80 ATS (+21.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 117-83 ATS (+25.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ATLANTA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 23

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WASHINGTON (3 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 1) - 10/23/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 4-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Thursday, October 19

KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oakland's last 8 games at home
Oakland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home


Sunday, October 22

CAROLINA @ CHICAGO
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

NEW ORLEANS @ GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans

BALTIMORE @ MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Baltimore is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Baltimore

TAMPA BAY @ BUFFALO
Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Buffalo's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games

TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Tennessee is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Tennessee

JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games

NY JETS @ MIAMI
NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

ARIZONA @ LA RAMS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Rams's last 8 games
LA Rams is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games when playing Dallas

CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati

DENVER @ LA CHARGERS
Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
LA Chargers is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver

SEATTLE @ NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Seattle is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing Seattle
NY Giants is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Seattle

ATLANTA @ NEW ENGLAND
Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Atlanta's last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games at home
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta


Monday, October 23

WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA
Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Thursday's game
Chiefs (5-1) @ Raiders (2-4)— Oakland lost its last four games, scoring 6 TD’s on last 43 drives; they’re -3 in turnovers his year, with zero INT’s- they have only one takeaway in last three games. Raiders lost to Ravens/Chargers at home last two weeks. Carr returned vs Chargers, but they ran lot of shorter pass patterns to lessen chances he gets hit on his broken back. Kansas City was held to 251 yards in home loss to Steelers Sunday, its first loss in six games. KC is 3-o on road (over 3-0), scoring ppg (12 TD’s on 33 drives); Chiefs won last five series games (four by 8+ points), winning 34-20/26-10 in last two visits to Oakland. Three of last four Raider games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 7-5 vs spread.


Sunday's games
Titans (3-3) @ Browns (0-6)— Short week for Titans after rare Monday night home game vs Colts. Tennessee scored 37-33-36 points in its wins, 16-14-10 in its losses; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win in Jacksonville. Titans are 1-3-1 in last five games as a road favorite. Winless Cleveland is 0-5 vs spread the last five weeks, 1-2 as home underdogs, losing by 3-3-16 points- they allowed 31+ points in 3 of last 4 games. In last three games, Browns scored only 14 points on seven red zone drives. Browns beat Tennessee 2 of last 3 years; Titans won LY’s meeting 28-26. Tennessee are 4-2 here, losing 28-14 in last visit here, in 2015. AFC South teams are 7-6 vs spread outside the division, 2-3 on road; AFC North teams are 5-6, 2-3 at home.

Jaguars (3-3) @ Colts (2-4)— Jacksonville is +11 in turnovers in its three wins, -1 in its losses; they allowed two special teams TD’s in home loss to Rams LW. Jaguars are 2-1 on road, with wins at Texans/Steelers- 4 of their last 5 games went over. Short week for Colts after Monday night game in Nashville- they’ve been outscored 85-22 in 4th quarter this year, allowing foes 7.4 yds/play in 4th quarter. All three Indy home games were decided by 3 points each. Colts won 7 of last 9 series games; home team won last four. Jaguars lost four visits here, by 20-20-3-4 points- one of their wins over Colts was in London LY. Over is 5-1 in Indy games this season, as have four of last five Jaguar games.

Bengals (2-3) @ Steelers (4-2)— Bengals won last two games after an 0-3 start; they’re 1-1 on road- they led 21-7 at half in Green Bay before Rodgers beat ‘em in OT, Cincy’s first cover in last five games as a road dog. Cincy (-7) has only 4 takeaways in five games. Steelers handed KC its first loss LW; Pitt has only two TD’s on its last 20 drives, scoring 19 points on last five red zone drives, but they’ve kept 5 of 6 opponents to 5.1 ypa or less. Pitt won 7 of last 8 series games, winning last four by 13-2-8-4 points. Bengals are 3-5 SU in last eight visits here. Cincy is 5-12-1 SU in last 18 post-bye games, 4-9 vs spread in last 13 games as a post-bye underdog. Under is 4-1 in Bengal games, 6-0 in Pittsburgh games. Last 6+ years, Steelers are 20-13 as home faves.

Ravens (3-3) @ Vikings (4-2)— Ravens lost 3 of last 4 games after a 2-0 start; they were only team that played LW that didn’t score an offensive TD- they had two special teams TDs but still lost at home to Chicago. Baltimore is 2-0 in true road games, beating Bengals 20-0 (+3), Raiders 30-17 (+2.5). Vikings were held to 9-7 points in their losses; they scored 20+ in their wins. Minnesota is 3-1 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite; they’re 14-5 vs spread as a home fave under Zimmer. Home team won last four series games; Ravens lost 33-31 in only visit here, back in ’09. AFC North teams are 5-6 vs spread outside the division, 3-1 as road underdogs; NFC North teams are 9-7, 2-2 as home favorites. Under is 5-1 in Viking games, 1-3 in last four Raven games.

Jets (3-3) @ Dolphins (3-2)— Jets won last six series games, upsetting Miami 20-6 (+6) in Swamp back in Week 3, Fish ran for only 30 yards, were 1-12 on 3rd down. Jets won last four visits here, by 3-13-13-4 points. Dolphins are 3-2 after rallying from 17-0 halftime deficit to upset Falcons LW; they’ve been held under 300 yards in last four games, but they did beat Titans 16-10 in only home game so far. Miami is 4-11-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a home favorite. Jets covered their last four games (3-1 SU); they’re 1-2 on road this year, winning at Cleveland, losing by 9-25 points. Under Bowles, NY is 3-6-2 vs spread as road underdogs. Under is 3-1 in last four Jet games, 5-0 in Dolphin games this season.

Tampa Bay (2-3) @ Bills (3-2)— Winston (shoulder) was KO’d in Arizona; 34-year old backup Fitzpatrick is 46-69-1 as an NFL starter for 6 other teams. Unsure which one starts here. Tampa Bay lost 34-17 (-2.5), 38-33 (-2) in its two road games; they’re 15-9 in last 24 games as a road underdog. Buffalo won its two home games, 21-12 (-8) over the Jets, 26-16 (+3) over Denver. Bucs are making only 2nd-ever visit to Orchard Park; they lost 33-20 here in ’09, but won 7 of other 9 series games. Buffalo won last two post-bye games; they’re 5-2 vs spread in last 7 games as a post-bye favorite. NFC South teams are 7-12 outside their division, 2-3 as underdogs; AFC East teams are 9-5 vs spread, but 0-3 as home favorites.

Panthers (4-2) @ Bears (2-4)— John Fox opposes the team he took to the Super Bowl in 2003. Carolina is 1-4 in Windy City; the one win was an ’05 playoff game. Panthers are 3-0 on road this season, scoring 23-33-27 points; they’ve got only two takeaways in last five games (-7). Carolina is 6-12-1 vs spread in last 19 games as a road favorite. Trubisky split his first two NFL starts, averaging 5.9/5.3 ypa; both Chicago wins this season were OT games. Bears allowed two special teams TD’s LW, including game-tying punt return in last 3:00- they ran ball for 231 yards. NFC South teams are 7-12 outside their division, 2-3 as road favorites; NFC North home dogs are 4-1 vs spread. Last three Panther games went over total; under is 4-2 in Chicago games.

Saints (3-2) @ Packers (4-2)— Absence of Rodgers likely ruins Packers’ season; they’re home underdog to red-hot Saints, who forced 9 turnovers (+6) in winning last three games- their defense scored 3 TD’s LW— Brees’ offense has 10 TD’s on its last 34 drives. Green Bay scored one TD after Rodgers got hurt LW, on an 18-yard drive; this is Hundley’s first NFL start- he was 29-11 in his UCLA days. Over last decade, Packers are 4-2 as home underdogs. Home side won last four series games; Saints lost 42-34/28-27 in last two visits here- last series road win was Saints’ win here in ’06. NFC North home underdogs are 4-1 vs spread. NFC South teams are 7-12 outside the division, 2-3 as road favorites.

Cardinals (3-3) vs Rams (4-2) (@ London)— LA beat Jaguars Sunday, stayed in Jacksonville for next 3 days- they head overseas Thursday. Rams lost 17-10 in England LY- they head to London atop NFC West. Rams scored 27+ points in all four wins, were held to 20-10 points in their losses. Cardinals gave up 34-33 points in last two games; they led Bucs 31-0 LW, before backup QB Fitzpatrick rallied the Bucs. Cardinals ran ball for 160 yards in Peterson’s first game as a Redbird, Arizona’s first cover in six games this year. Arizona won 5 of last 7 series games; Rams won the first meeting the last two years. Arizona is 1-3 vs spread as an underdog this year, are 2-6 in last 8 games when getting points; 4 of their last 5 games stayed under total.

Cowboys (2-3) @ 49ers (0-6)— 49ers haven’t won a game yet, but covered 4 of last 5, losing those games by 3-2-3-3-2 points. This will be Iowa alum Beathard’s first NFL start; his grand father was a great Redskins’ GM. Niners scored 23+ points in 3 of their last 4 games. Cowboys scored 30-31 points in last two games but lost both; suspension of RB Elliott figures to hurt the Dallas run game, exposing their defense even more. Cowboys split their two road games; they’re 7-3 in last 10 games as a road favorite. Dallas won 4 of last 5 series games; 3 of the 4 wins were by 7 or less points- they won last 3 visits here by 3-3-7 points, with last loss in SF in 1997. NFC East teams are 9-8 vs spread, 2-6 as favorites; NFC West teams are 6-9 vs spread, 4-6 as dogs.

Seahawks (3-2) @ Giants (1-5)— Giants ran ball for 152-148 yards in their last two games since re-tooling the offensive line; they’re just 9-29 on 3rd down in those games- their young WR’s will be greatly tested by stout Seahawk defense. NY went over their team over/under in 3 of last 4 games. Seahawks are 1-2 on road, with only win 13-10 in LA; they’ve held 4 of 5 opponents to 18 or less points. Seattle is 4-6-1 SU in last 11 road games, 1-5 vs spread in last six tries as a road favorite- they won last three series games, by 11-23-21 points; 2 of those 3 games were played here. NFC West teams are 6-9 vs spread outside their division, 2-3 as favorites; NFC East teams are 9-8, 7-2 as underdogs. Seahawks are 6-12 SU in last 18 post-bye games (3-1 in last four).

Broncos (3-2) @ Chargers (2-4)— Denver lost its only road game this season 26-16 (-3) in Week 3 in Buffalo; Broncos are 6-3-1 in last ten games as road favorite. Denver is 11-2 in last 13 series games, winning 7 of last 8, including 24-21 home win Week 1 this year- Broncos ran ball for 140 yards. Denver won 5 of its last 6 trips to San Diego. Chargers won last two games, both on road; they’re 0-3 in their temporary home, losing by 2-14-2 points. Only one of Chargers’ four losses was by more than 3 points; they’re 19-42 on 3rd down the last three games, and have 5 takeaways in last two games, after three games with no takeaways. Bolts are 2-8 vs spread in last 10 games as home underdogs. Over is 3-1 in last four Charger games,

Falcons (3-2) @ Patriots (4-2)— Rematch of last winter’s Super Bowl, when Atlanta blew a 28-3 3rd quarter lead; Falcons blew a 17-0 lead to Miami Sunday, their second loss in row after a 3-0 start. Atlanta was outscored 36-7 in 2nd half of last two games, and those were at home; they’ve got road wins in Chicago-Detroit this year, under Quinn, they’re 6-1 as road underdogs. Patriots allowed 33+ points in all three home games this year (1-2, 0-3 vs spread); they’re still 17-11-3 in last 31 games as a home favorite. Pats won last four series games; Falcons’ last series win was here in 1998. NFC South teams are 7-12 outside the division, 2-1 as road underdogs; AFC East teams are 9-5 vs spread, but 0-3 as home favorites. Over is 4-2 in Patriot games this season.


Monday's game
Redskins (3-2) @ Eagles (5-1)— Redskins lost their last six weeknight games. Eagles won six of last nine weeknight games. Eagles (-1) won 30-17 at Washington in Week 1, snapping 5-game series skid; Redskins won 38-24/27-22 in last two visits here. Each defense scored a TD in that first meeting. Philly had extra prep time after Thursday win in Charlotte; they’ve won four games in row, covering last three. Eagles are 2-0 at home, winning by 3-27 points- only one of their last four wins was by more than five points. Redskins won three of last four games, are 1-1 on road (over 1-0-1)- they scored 26+ points in their three wins, 17-20 in losses. Washington is 8-3 vs spread in last 11 games as a road underdog.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Thursday's game
Chiefs (5-1) @ Raiders (2-4)— Oakland lost its last four games, scoring 6 TD’s on last 43 drives; they’re -3 in turnovers his year, with zero INT’s- they have only one takeaway in last three games. Raiders lost to Ravens/Chargers at home last two weeks. Carr returned vs Chargers, but they ran lot of shorter pass patterns to lessen chances he gets hit on his broken back. Kansas City was held to 251 yards in home loss to Steelers Sunday, its first loss in six games. KC is 3-o on road (over 3-0), scoring ppg (12 TD’s on 33 drives); Chiefs won last five series games (four by 8+ points), winning 34-20/26-10 in last two visits to Oakland. Three of last four Raider games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 7-5 vs spread.


Sunday's games
Titans (3-3) @ Browns (0-6)— Short week for Titans after rare Monday night home game vs Colts. Tennessee scored 37-33-36 points in its wins, 16-14-10 in its losses; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win in Jacksonville. Titans are 1-3-1 in last five games as a road favorite. Winless Cleveland is 0-5 vs spread the last five weeks, 1-2 as home underdogs, losing by 3-3-16 points- they allowed 31+ points in 3 of last 4 games. In last three games, Browns scored only 14 points on seven red zone drives. Browns beat Tennessee 2 of last 3 years; Titans won LY’s meeting 28-26. Tennessee are 4-2 here, losing 28-14 in last visit here, in 2015. AFC South teams are 7-6 vs spread outside the division, 2-3 on road; AFC North teams are 5-6, 2-3 at home.

Jaguars (3-3) @ Colts (2-4)— Jacksonville is +11 in turnovers in its three wins, -1 in its losses; they allowed two special teams TD’s in home loss to Rams LW. Jaguars are 2-1 on road, with wins at Texans/Steelers- 4 of their last 5 games went over. Short week for Colts after Monday night game in Nashville- they’ve been outscored 85-22 in 4th quarter this year, allowing foes 7.4 yds/play in 4th quarter. All three Indy home games were decided by 3 points each. Colts won 7 of last 9 series games; home team won last four. Jaguars lost four visits here, by 20-20-3-4 points- one of their wins over Colts was in London LY. Over is 5-1 in Indy games this season, as have four of last five Jaguar games.

Bengals (2-3) @ Steelers (4-2)— Bengals won last two games after an 0-3 start; they’re 1-1 on road- they led 21-7 at half in Green Bay before Rodgers beat ‘em in OT, Cincy’s first cover in last five games as a road dog. Cincy (-7) has only 4 takeaways in five games. Steelers handed KC its first loss LW; Pitt has only two TD’s on its last 20 drives, scoring 19 points on last five red zone drives, but they’ve kept 5 of 6 opponents to 5.1 ypa or less. Pitt won 7 of last 8 series games, winning last four by 13-2-8-4 points. Bengals are 3-5 SU in last eight visits here. Cincy is 5-12-1 SU in last 18 post-bye games, 4-9 vs spread in last 13 games as a post-bye underdog. Under is 4-1 in Bengal games, 6-0 in Pittsburgh games. Last 6+ years, Steelers are 20-13 as home faves.

Ravens (3-3) @ Vikings (4-2)— Ravens lost 3 of last 4 games after a 2-0 start; they were only team that played LW that didn’t score an offensive TD- they had two special teams TDs but still lost at home to Chicago. Baltimore is 2-0 in true road games, beating Bengals 20-0 (+3), Raiders 30-17 (+2.5). Vikings were held to 9-7 points in their losses; they scored 20+ in their wins. Minnesota is 3-1 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite; they’re 14-5 vs spread as a home fave under Zimmer. Home team won last four series games; Ravens lost 33-31 in only visit here, back in ’09. AFC North teams are 5-6 vs spread outside the division, 3-1 as road underdogs; NFC North teams are 9-7, 2-2 as home favorites. Under is 5-1 in Viking games, 1-3 in last four Raven games.

Jets (3-3) @ Dolphins (3-2)— Jets won last six series games, upsetting Miami 20-6 (+6) in Swamp back in Week 3, Fish ran for only 30 yards, were 1-12 on 3rd down. Jets won last four visits here, by 3-13-13-4 points. Dolphins are 3-2 after rallying from 17-0 halftime deficit to upset Falcons LW; they’ve been held under 300 yards in last four games, but they did beat Titans 16-10 in only home game so far. Miami is 4-11-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a home favorite. Jets covered their last four games (3-1 SU); they’re 1-2 on road this year, winning at Cleveland, losing by 9-25 points. Under Bowles, NY is 3-6-2 vs spread as road underdogs. Under is 3-1 in last four Jet games, 5-0 in Dolphin games this season.

Tampa Bay (2-3) @ Bills (3-2)— Winston (shoulder) was KO’d in Arizona; 34-year old backup Fitzpatrick is 46-69-1 as an NFL starter for 6 other teams. Unsure which one starts here. Tampa Bay lost 34-17 (-2.5), 38-33 (-2) in its two road games; they’re 15-9 in last 24 games as a road underdog. Buffalo won its two home games, 21-12 (-8) over the Jets, 26-16 (+3) over Denver. Bucs are making only 2nd-ever visit to Orchard Park; they lost 33-20 here in ’09, but won 7 of other 9 series games. Buffalo won last two post-bye games; they’re 5-2 vs spread in last 7 games as a post-bye favorite. NFC South teams are 7-12 outside their division, 2-3 as underdogs; AFC East teams are 9-5 vs spread, but 0-3 as home favorites.

Panthers (4-2) @ Bears (2-4)— John Fox opposes the team he took to the Super Bowl in 2003. Carolina is 1-4 in Windy City; the one win was an ’05 playoff game. Panthers are 3-0 on road this season, scoring 23-33-27 points; they’ve got only two takeaways in last five games (-7). Carolina is 6-12-1 vs spread in last 19 games as a road favorite. Trubisky split his first two NFL starts, averaging 5.9/5.3 ypa; both Chicago wins this season were OT games. Bears allowed two special teams TD’s LW, including game-tying punt return in last 3:00- they ran ball for 231 yards. NFC South teams are 7-12 outside their division, 2-3 as road favorites; NFC North home dogs are 4-1 vs spread. Last three Panther games went over total; under is 4-2 in Chicago games.

Saints (3-2) @ Packers (4-2)— Absence of Rodgers likely ruins Packers’ season; they’re home underdog to red-hot Saints, who forced 9 turnovers (+6) in winning last three games- their defense scored 3 TD’s LW— Brees’ offense has 10 TD’s on its last 34 drives. Green Bay scored one TD after Rodgers got hurt LW, on an 18-yard drive; this is Hundley’s first NFL start- he was 29-11 in his UCLA days. Over last decade, Packers are 4-2 as home underdogs. Home side won last four series games; Saints lost 42-34/28-27 in last two visits here- last series road win was Saints’ win here in ’06. NFC North home underdogs are 4-1 vs spread. NFC South teams are 7-12 outside the division, 2-3 as road favorites.

Cardinals (3-3) vs Rams (4-2) (@ London)— LA beat Jaguars Sunday, stayed in Jacksonville for next 3 days- they head overseas Thursday. Rams lost 17-10 in England LY- they head to London atop NFC West. Rams scored 27+ points in all four wins, were held to 20-10 points in their losses. Cardinals gave up 34-33 points in last two games; they led Bucs 31-0 LW, before backup QB Fitzpatrick rallied the Bucs. Cardinals ran ball for 160 yards in Peterson’s first game as a Redbird, Arizona’s first cover in six games this year. Arizona won 5 of last 7 series games; Rams won the first meeting the last two years. Arizona is 1-3 vs spread as an underdog this year, are 2-6 in last 8 games when getting points; 4 of their last 5 games stayed under total.

Cowboys (2-3) @ 49ers (0-6)— 49ers haven’t won a game yet, but covered 4 of last 5, losing those games by 3-2-3-3-2 points. This will be Iowa alum Beathard’s first NFL start; his grand father was a great Redskins’ GM. Niners scored 23+ points in 3 of their last 4 games. Cowboys scored 30-31 points in last two games but lost both; suspension of RB Elliott figures to hurt the Dallas run game, exposing their defense even more. Cowboys split their two road games; they’re 7-3 in last 10 games as a road favorite. Dallas won 4 of last 5 series games; 3 of the 4 wins were by 7 or less points- they won last 3 visits here by 3-3-7 points, with last loss in SF in 1997. NFC East teams are 9-8 vs spread, 2-6 as favorites; NFC West teams are 6-9 vs spread, 4-6 as dogs.

Seahawks (3-2) @ Giants (1-5)— Giants ran ball for 152-148 yards in their last two games since re-tooling the offensive line; they’re just 9-29 on 3rd down in those games- their young WR’s will be greatly tested by stout Seahawk defense. NY went over their team over/under in 3 of last 4 games. Seahawks are 1-2 on road, with only win 13-10 in LA; they’ve held 4 of 5 opponents to 18 or less points. Seattle is 4-6-1 SU in last 11 road games, 1-5 vs spread in last six tries as a road favorite- they won last three series games, by 11-23-21 points; 2 of those 3 games were played here. NFC West teams are 6-9 vs spread outside their division, 2-3 as favorites; NFC East teams are 9-8, 7-2 as underdogs. Seahawks are 6-12 SU in last 18 post-bye games (3-1 in last four).

Broncos (3-2) @ Chargers (2-4)— Denver lost its only road game this season 26-16 (-3) in Week 3 in Buffalo; Broncos are 6-3-1 in last ten games as road favorite. Denver is 11-2 in last 13 series games, winning 7 of last 8, including 24-21 home win Week 1 this year- Broncos ran ball for 140 yards. Denver won 5 of its last 6 trips to San Diego. Chargers won last two games, both on road; they’re 0-3 in their temporary home, losing by 2-14-2 points. Only one of Chargers’ four losses was by more than 3 points; they’re 19-42 on 3rd down the last three games, and have 5 takeaways in last two games, after three games with no takeaways. Bolts are 2-8 vs spread in last 10 games as home underdogs. Over is 3-1 in last four Charger games,

Falcons (3-2) @ Patriots (4-2)— Rematch of last winter’s Super Bowl, when Atlanta blew a 28-3 3rd quarter lead; Falcons blew a 17-0 lead to Miami Sunday, their second loss in row after a 3-0 start. Atlanta was outscored 36-7 in 2nd half of last two games, and those were at home; they’ve got road wins in Chicago-Detroit this year, under Quinn, they’re 6-1 as road underdogs. Patriots allowed 33+ points in all three home games this year (1-2, 0-3 vs spread); they’re still 17-11-3 in last 31 games as a home favorite. Pats won last four series games; Falcons’ last series win was here in 1998. NFC South teams are 7-12 outside the division, 2-1 as road underdogs; AFC East teams are 9-5 vs spread, but 0-3 as home favorites. Over is 4-2 in Patriot games this season.


Monday's game
Redskins (3-2) @ Eagles (5-1)— Redskins lost their last six weeknight games. Eagles won six of last nine weeknight games. Eagles (-1) won 30-17 at Washington in Week 1, snapping 5-game series skid; Redskins won 38-24/27-22 in last two visits here. Each defense scored a TD in that first meeting. Philly had extra prep time after Thursday win in Charlotte; they’ve won four games in row, covering last three. Eagles are 2-0 at home, winning by 3-27 points- only one of their last four wins was by more than five points. Redskins won three of last four games, are 1-1 on road (over 1-0-1)- they scored 26+ points in their three wins, 17-20 in losses. Washington is 8-3 vs spread in last 11 games as a road underdog.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 7
October 18, 2017


THURSDAY, OCT. 19

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND (CBS, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Chiefs have had much success over the years in Oakland, now 11-3 vs. line last 14 at Coliseum. Raiders only 2-5 as home dog since 2015 and on 2-6 spread skid since late LY.
Tech Edge: Chiefs, based on team and series trends.

SUNDAY, OCT. 22
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

TENNESSEE at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns no covers last five TY, now 5-18 vs. line last 23 since late 2015. Cleveland also on 10-4 “under” run.
Tech Edge: Titans and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags have won last 3 SU and covered last 4 vs. Colts. Jags 5-1 vs. line last six as visitor and “over” 15-7 since late 2015. Indy, however, a surprising 3-0 vs. line at Lucas Oil this season.
Tech Edge: Jags and “over,” based on recent series and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BALTIMORE at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens 2-0 SU and vs. line as true visitor TY (did get ripped in the London game) and 4-2 last six as dog. Vikes 7-10 last 17 vs. spread since early 2016.
Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. JETS at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets 6-1-1 vs. line last eight in series including Sept. 24 win this season. Also 5-0-1 vs. spread last six at Miami. Dolphins “under” first five TY after “over” 12-4 last season.
Tech Edge: Jets and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TAMPA BAY at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills 4-1 vs. line TY, also “under” 5-1 last six since late 2016. Buffalo has covered out of bye past two seasons. Bucs 1-6 vs. line last six since late 2016.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bills and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at CHICAGO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Home team 5-1 vs. line in Bears games TY (Chicago 3-0 at Soldier Field vs. points), and Fox 7-1-1 as home dog since LY. Road team, however, is 6-0 vs. spread in Panthers games TY (Carolina 3-0 away). Carolina also “over” last four.
Tech Edge: Bears and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints “over” 4-1 TY, 33-20 since 2015, also 11-5 as road dog since 2015.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Saints, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA vs. L.A. RAMS at Twickenham Stadium, London (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rams “over” 7-1 since late LY. Cards 1-5 vs. line TY.
Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to Rams, ” based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Niners 4-1 vs. line last five TY, all games within three points, and 6-2 vs. spread last eight since late LY. Dallas on 3-8 spread skid since late 2016.
Tech Edge: Slight to Niners, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Steel has won and covered last three meetings, and is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 vs. line last seven at Paul Brown Stadium. Bengals “under” 23-9 since mid 2015. Steel “under” 6-0 TY.
Tech Edge: Steelers and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at N.Y. GIANTS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Pete Carroll has won and covered all four trips to MetLife (including Super Bowl vs. Broncos) and outscored last three 93-25. Though Hawks only 4-7 vs. line since LY away.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Bolts 0-3 SU and vs. line as host TY, no covers last seven as host since mid 2016. Broncos 5-1 SU and vs. line last six as series visitor.
Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at NEW ENGLAND (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Falcs 9-2 vs. spread last 11 as visitor, 9-1 as reg.-season dog since 2015. Falcs “over” 18-6 since LY as well (though 2-3 TY). Belichick 0-3 vs. line at home TY. Belichick also “over” 8-1 last nine since late LY (including Supe vs. Falcs).
Tech Edge: "Over" and Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.

MONDAY, OCT. 23
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Birds on 7-2 spread uptick since late LY, though they had dropped five in a row SU and six straight vs. line against Skins prior to opening-day win. Wentz 7-3 vs. line at Linc since LY and Birds “over” 7-3-1 last 11 since late 2016. Skins 8-3 last 11 as road dog (and one of those Ls was the KC fluke on Oct. 2). Gruden also “over” 20-6 since late 2015, and “overs” 5-2 last seven in series.
Tech Edge: "Over” and slight to Skins, based on “totals” and team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Best Bet
October 18, 2017

NFL Week 7 TNF Best Bet (CBS, 8:25 p.m. ET)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders

The Kansas City Chiefs were the last NFL team to suffer defeat this year after Pittsburgh went into Arrowhead last Sunday and won 19-13. Whether or not the Chiefs got caught looking ahead to this TNF game against the hated Raiders is besides the point now, because KC has got a chance to turn things around in a hurry here by getting right back in the win column with a victory over this struggling Oakland team.

The Raiders would like to be able to put the last few weeks behind them as they've lost four in a row (SU and ATS) and have fallen to a tie for last in the AFC West. This was an Oakland team that many thought could possibly upend the Patriots as kings of the AFC this year, but for a variety of reasons, Oakland sits at 2-4 SU entering this TNF game and needs to start collecting wins in a hurry.

HeritageSports.eu Odds: Kansas City (-3); Total set at 46.5

Last week's loss to Pittsburgh was the first time this Chiefs offense really looked bad this year as they failed to score 24 or more points for the first time in 2017. QB Alex Smith wasn't his sharpest, but the biggest problem KC had was that they were unable to find any success on the ground. This Chiefs offense needs to run the ball well because it opens up almost everything else in the playbook for them, but once teams take that away from them like the Steelers did on Sunday, KC becomes quite predictable and subsequently easy to defend.

Thankfully for Chiefs fans, Oakland ranks in the bottom third of the NFL in rush yards allowed per game, so chances are we see KC's attack be more balanced and have more success this week, even on a short week.

Oakland's offense hasn't come close to living up to the preseason hype it had in 2017. WR Amari Cooper can't stop dropping passes, QB Derek Carr has been in and out of the lineup the last few weeks, and the Raiders simply have a real tough time running the ball. All of that adds up to four straight weeks of scoring 17 or fewer points, and subsequently four straight losses.

The Raiders have also lost five in a row to KC in this rivalry (1-4 ATS) and there aren't many bettors giving them a shot this week against the 5-1 SU Kansas City Chiefs. VegasInsider.com already shows about 75% of ML wagers and 80% of ATS wagers have come Kansas City's way so far, as the all summer hype train in Oakland looks like nothing but a mirage to many now.

However, even with the disparity in records for both sides and something smells a little off about this line. From a personnel standpoint, this Oakland Raiders team is no different then the one in the preseason that was getting all the Super Bowl love. Injuries and poor performance have plagued Oakland so far, but are they really that far off from the summer expectations of being an 11-5 SU type squad that the majority of NFL people had for this team?

Secondly, I'm not sure that the majority of bettors who've already laid the road chalk with Kansas City realize that this number might not make a whole lot of sense in the big picture. Kansas City laying -3 on the road impies that with a typical NFL homefield advantage of -3 points, the Chiefs would be in the -6 range on a neutral field and -9 or higher at home. When flipping the scenario around that way, even with all the Raiders struggles the past month, would you really want to lay that kind of chalk with KC on a short week and off their first loss? I know I wouldn't.

Last week's Green Bay/Minnesota game was the identical point spread with the Vikings as 3-point home dogs and they were able to cash rather easily. The “rather easily” part of that equation was basically because QB Aaron Rodgers went down with injury, but even not knowing that prior to the game, the Vikings attracted a lot of big money bets from sharp bettors a week ago. Oakland is just as talented as KC on paper, although they haven't showed it so far this year and could very well do the same as Minnesota did in Week 6.

Finally, with Oakland having lost five in a row in this AFC West rivalry, something's got to give soon. The Raiders know they can't slip up anymore if they want to get back into the division race, and with this being their third straight home game (after losing the previous two), bettors should expect the Oakland Raiders that everyone thought was a “darkhorse” Super Bowl pick this summer to show up this week and more then likely pull off the outright win.

Odds per - HeritageSports.eu

Best Bet: Oakland +3